Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
69%
Afghanistan
60%
70 others
20
62 comments
62
Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?
Sudan
Yes
Niger
68%
Haiti
60%
52 others
31
210 comments
210
Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
3%
432 forecasters
9
10 comments
10
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will these countries obtain a nuclear weapon before 2030?
South Korea
3%
Germany
1%
Taiwan
1%
6 others
12
22 comments
22
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
22%
446 forecasters
58
67 comments
67
Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?
2%
259 forecasters
21
9 comments
9
Will China launch a military invasion of any country other than Taiwan before 2030?
3%
31 forecasters
12
19 comments
19
Will India land on the Moon by August 1, 2018?
Resolved :
No
91 forecasters
3
6 comments
6
Will India's Chandrayaan-2 mission to the moon blast off before 2018 is out?
Resolved :
No
110 forecasters
7
4 comments
4
Will Israel be the fourth country to soft-land on the Moon?
Resolved :
No
77 forecasters
9
29 comments
29
Load More