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Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?

115 forecasters

2

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025?

10

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

145 forecasters

13

Ragnarök Series

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

446 forecasters

58

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

6

Ragnarök Series

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

2

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available?

243 forecasters

9

121 comments121

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

10

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

The FAA to soon open the door to commercial use of unmanned aerial systems?

15

Will the AI's major professional society take a position on "killer robots"?

5