Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will molecular nanotechnology have been proven feasible by the following years?
2050
77%
2040
61%
2030
24.2%
6
1 comment
1
Future of AI
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
52.8%
396 forecasters
34
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
46.9%
77 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
Ragnarök Series
Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
22%
31 forecasters
6
3 comments
3
When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?
2028-07-19
23 forecasters
12
10 comments
10
AI in China
Will a Chinese fab achieve a process with a density of greater than 150M transistors per square millimeter by 2027?
72%
21 forecasters
10
no comments
0
Chinese AI Chips
by 2021, will SLAC complete an "accelerator-on-a-chip" prototype with an acceleration gradient of 1 GeV/meter?
Resolved :
No
132 forecasters
21
9 comments
9
To the stars! #2: Mountaintop lasers, rockets, optics and wafers? Or something else?
Resolved :
No
132 forecasters
27
14 comments
14
Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?
3%
175 forecasters
12
9 comments
9
Ragnarök Series
Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?
10%
81 forecasters
12
8 comments
8
Load More