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By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

241 forecasters

49

Will Israel be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

11

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

429 forecasters

49

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

270 forecasters

37

When will an AI achieve a 98th percentile score or higher in a Mensa admission test?

104 forecasters

19

AI Demonstrations

By 2030, will C. elegans be uploaded to the satisfaction of top computational neuroscientists?

112 forecasters

31

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

14

AI Technical Benchmarks

Will a cryonically frozen individual be resuscitated before 2100?

7

Experimental tests of quantum effects in cognition?

139 forecasters

38

Are we in a simulated reality? Part I

146 forecasters

24