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Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?
2%
37 forecasters
2
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?
84%
24 forecasters
4
1 comment
1
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :
No
133 forecasters
12
22 comments
22
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?
Resolved :
No
113 forecasters
5
10 comments
10
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will the next offensive nuclear detonation(s) be retaliated against, if such a detonation occurs by 2024?
Resolved :
Annulled
124 forecasters
12
15 comments
15
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will >2 countries offensively detonate nuclear weapons by 2024, if any offensive detonation of a country's nuclear weapon occurs by then?
Resolved :
Annulled
38 forecasters
1 comment
1
Will >2 countries have nuclear weapons offensively detonated on or over their territories by 2024, if any country offensively detonates a nuclear weapon by then?
Resolved :
Annulled
29 forecasters
1 comment
1
Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?
Resolved :
Yes
53 forecasters
10
10 comments
10
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Will a non-state actor have acquired a nuclear weapon from a state by 2030?
1.9%
42 forecasters
6
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will a non-state actor develop their own nuclear weapon by 2030?
1%
119 forecasters
11
34 comments
34
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
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