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When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?
2025-03-30
777 forecasters
59
108 comments
108
Effective Institutions Project
If GPT-4 is announced before 2025, how many parameters will it have (in billions of parameters)?
1.76k
67 forecasters
10
12 comments
12
Business of AI
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAIโs Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
0.3%
451 forecasters
10
12 comments
12
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
8%
616 forecasters
17
70 comments
70
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?
0.1%
45 forecasters
5
5 comments
5
On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?
OpenAI
46.28%
Anthropic
29.45%
Google DeepMind
19.56%
3 others
9
12 comments
12
Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee
Will Elon Musk become the first trillionaire?
18%
285 forecasters
27
71 comments
71
What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?
June 30, 2025:
94.7
45 forecasters
12
38 comments
38
AI Technical Benchmarks
Before 2026, will OpenAI's commercial operations cease to be governed by its nonprofit board of directors?
90%
35 forecasters
5
9 comments
9
Will AI capabilities plateau with the next generation (GPT-5, etc.) of language models?
Google DeepMind / Gemini 2 Ultra
15%
Anthropic / Claude 4 Opus
12%
OpenAI / GPT-5
7%
20
33 comments
33
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