Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
👥
Communities
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?
1%
430 forecasters
8
9 comments
9
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?
1%
89 forecasters
15
37 comments
37
Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?
0.1%
487 forecasters
59
102 comments
102
Superconductor Frontiers
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
54%
396 forecasters
34
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?
80.8%
41 forecasters
5
1 comment
1
Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021?
Resolved :
No
149 forecasters
21
8 comments
8
Clinical trials of a "universal" snakebite antidote?
Resolved :
No
72 forecasters
5
5 comments
5
Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin?
Resolved :
No
130 forecasters
47
14 comments
14
Clinical trial of new treatment for sepsis?
Resolved :
Yes
58 forecasters
4
9 comments
9
Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will Psilocybin be a clinically approved treatment for end-of-life anxiety by 2027?
65%
173 forecasters
24
33 comments
33
Load More