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Will AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it before 2030?

403 forecasters

42

AI Demonstrations

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

371 forecasters

38

Ragnarök Series

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

145 forecasters

19

50 years after the first AGI becomes publicly known, how many hours earlier will historical consensus determine it came online?

17

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight when it is next updated?

5

Will there be a major nuclear or radiological accident before January 1, 2022?

129 forecasters

19

How many of the "priority paths" identified by 80,000hours will still be priority paths in 2030?

20

How much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?

Resolved :64.1M

6

Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?

327 forecasters

45

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

14