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In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

28

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

358 forecasters

52

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

16

Will human brain emulation be the first successful route to human-level digital intelligence?

429 forecasters

49

After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?

231 forecasters

44

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

283 forecasters

35

If a whole human brain is successfully emulated by 2100, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period?

9

If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?

167 forecasters

26

How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?

5

Will any jurisdiction adopt futarchy by 2070?

18