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Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?
3%
115 forecasters
16
10 comments
10
Business of AI
Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?
52.8%
396 forecasters
34
98 comments
98
AGI Outcomes
After a weak AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent oracle?
19.7
231 forecasters
44
36 comments
36
AGI Outcomes
After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?
42.2
283 forecasters
35
47 comments
47
AGI Outcomes
condition
OpenAI solves alignment before June 30 2027?
90 forecasters
if yes
if no
Human Extinction by 2100
1%
1%
Human Extinction by 2100
4%
4%
14
11 comments
11
AI Safety
Ragnarรถk Question Series: if an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?
57%
230 forecasters
21
13 comments
13
Ragnarรถk Series
Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity, if either occur by year 2300?
90%
135 forecasters
28
9 comments
9
AGI Outcomes
Will transformative AI come with a bang?
13
5 comments
5
AI Progress Essay Contest
Leverage AI-centric to AGI and ASI-centric beyond Moore's Law
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
The Unsolvable Control Problem, Artificial Sentience, and InfoSec
no comments
0
AI Progress Essay Contest
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