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Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
Will controlled AI chips be smuggled into China through any of the following countries before 2026?
Singapore
80%
Taiwan
75%
Vietnam
72%
9 others
6
8 comments
8
Chinese AI Chips
Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
1%
589 forecasters
15
8 comments
8
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?
61%
257 forecasters
20
24 comments
24
The Taiwan Tinderbox
Before July 1, 2027, will TSMC lose large numbers of wafers in a short period of time due to attack or sabotage against one or more of its Taiwan-based "Fab" facilities?
10k / month
27.8%
30k / month
16%
300k / year
14%
2 others
10
14 comments
14
The Taiwan Tinderbox
condition
Chinese GDP Overtakes US Before 2030?
59 forecasters
if yes
if no
US-China war before 2035?
15%
15%
US-China war before 2035?
10%
10%
13
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?
2025:
1%
776 forecasters
72
348 comments
348
The Taiwan Tinderbox
How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?
9
61.9%
10
35%
11
10%
4 others
4
12 comments
12
Will there be a US-China war before 2035?
9%
429 forecasters
40
33 comments
33
The Taiwan Tinderbox
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