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When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1523 forecasters

201

482 comments482

AI Progress Essay Contest

When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

1432 forecasters

176

488 comments488

Will AI successfully act on the instruction, “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment,” before January 1, 2030?

6

Will an AI successfully masquerade as human for 20 questions by 2017?

177 forecasters

48

What will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability turn out to be?

124 forecasters

41

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

511 forecasters

70

108 comments108

How many years after the silver Turing Test is passed will an AGI system be developed?

6

As of July 1, 2022, when will top forecasters expect the first Artificial General Intelligence to be developed and demonstrated?

Resolved :Jun 2, 2030

13

Will a 'Turing Test' for plant-based meat be passed if such a test is conducted by April 2023?

Resolved :Annulled

162 forecasters

18

Alt-Protein Tournament Round 1

When will the Loebner Prize award a silver medal for an AI that passes the Turing test?

Resolved :Ambiguous

2