Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Ivanivske
92%
Velyka Novosilka
70%
Kostyantynivka
65%
13 others
21
84 comments
84
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
2026-01-07
218 forecasters
34
61 comments
61
Which of these nations will experience a successful coup d'etat before 2040?
Haiti
69%
Mali
68%
Afghanistan
63%
70 others
20
59 comments
59
If there is at least one nuclear detonation by 2030, in which countries will there be at least one fatality?
Ukraine
25%
Israel
20%
Pakistan
10%
5 others
6
8 comments
8
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
0.7%
537 forecasters
10
16 comments
16
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
1%
1130 forecasters
44
291 comments
291
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
20%
66 forecasters
8
10 comments
10
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
1%
517 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
5%
125 forecasters
10
4 comments
4
Load More