Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?
10%
108 forecasters
13
7 comments
7
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will Ukraine join NATO before 2035?
24%
137 forecasters
19
37 comments
37
Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?
10%
353 forecasters
37
25 comments
25
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Will an investigation conducted by or on behalf of any NATO government report that the US was involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline before 2025?
1%
126 forecasters
14
40 comments
40
Will Russia expand by means of armed conflict before 2020?
Resolved :
No
112 forecasters
12
6 comments
6
Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 8 September 2018?
Resolved :
No
125 forecasters
6
2 comments
2
IARPA 2018 Global Forecasting Challenge
Will Turkey be a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2025?
99%
206 forecasters
24
20 comments
20
Will Russia annex Ukrainian territory before 2022?
Resolved :
No
128 forecasters
31
32 comments
32
Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?
Resolved :
No
52 forecasters
7
3 comments
3
If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?
62%
27 forecasters
1
no comments
0
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Load More