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Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
20%
66 forecasters
8
10 comments
10
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
1%
517 forecasters
6
5 comments
5
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?
3%
166 forecasters
16
14 comments
14
Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?
Resolved :
No
75 forecasters
17
16 comments
16
What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?
Resolved :
11
25 forecasters
3
8 comments
8
Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?
Resolved :
Yes
1157 forecasters
237
1.9k comments
1.9k
2022 Scott Alexander predictions
Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?
Resolved :
No
239 forecasters
22
54 comments
54
Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?
Resolved :
Yes
263 forecasters
23
23 comments
23
Will a state actor successfully use an ASAT weapon against a foreign satellite before 2024?
Resolved :
No
66 forecasters
11
15 comments
15
Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?
Resolved :
No
654 forecasters
22
62 comments
62
Ukraine Conflict
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