Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
ๆ
Feed Home
๐ค๐ญ
AI Benchmarking
Topics
โจ๐
Top Questions
๐ฝ๐ณ๏ธ
US Election Stakes
๐๏ธ๐
Global Elections
๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ต๐ธ
Gaza Conflict
โณ๐
5 Years After AGI
๐ฆ ๐ฉบ
Mpox outbreak
๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ
Ukraine Conflict
๐ฆ๐ฆ
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
๐ค
Artificial Intelligence
๐งฌ
Health & Pandemics
๐
Environment & Climate
โฃ๏ธ
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?
21 to 100
89.89%
More than 100
9.81%
0
0.1%
2 others
7
95 comments
95
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
5%
109 forecasters
15
66 comments
66
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?
20%
52 forecasters
9
22 comments
22
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
Before 2025, will the following occur relating to pasteurized milk and avian influenza H5N1 in the United States?
Milk recall due to H5N1
0.9%
US officials warn against drinking milk
0.1%
Confirmed H5N1 infection from retail milk
0.1%
4
15 comments
15
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?
1.27
37 forecasters
7
49 comments
49
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a โPublic Health Emergency of International Concernโ by the World Health Organization before 2030?
33%
21 forecasters
5
2 comments
2
What type of pathogen will cause the next pandemic?
Orthomyxoviridae
58%
Other 24 known HIVF
25%
Coronaviridae
15%
1 other
19
7 comments
7
Biosecurity Tournament
Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?
0.1%
73 forecasters
9
45 comments
45
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
2040-01-01
9 forecasters
3
2 comments
2
What will be the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on August 1, 2024?
Herds Affected
174
States
13
3
24 comments
24
Respiratory Outlook 2023/24
Load More