Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Feed Home
🤖🔭
AI Benchmarking
Topics
✨🔝
Top Questions
🗽🗳️
US Election Stakes
🕊️🌐
Global Elections
🇮🇱🇵🇸
Gaza Conflict
⏳🌀
5 Years After AGI
🦠🩺
Mpox outbreak
🇺🇦⚔️
Ukraine Conflict
🐦🦠
H5N1 Bird Flu
categories
🤖
Artificial Intelligence
🧬
Health & Pandemics
🌎
Environment & Climate
☣️
Nuclear Technology & Risks
See all categories
Hot
Movers
New
More
Filter
Who will have de facto power in the Gaza Strip on January 1, 2025?
Contested
86%
Israel
13.1%
Hamas
0.6%
3 others
25
75 comments
75
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will state-based conflict between Israel and Iran cause at least 1,000 deaths before 2025?
5%
280 forecasters
26
80 comments
80
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
86%
156 forecasters
16
31 comments
31
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?
1%
207 forecasters
19
38 comments
38
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030?
4%
55 forecasters
6
21 comments
21
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025?
0.1%
110 forecasters
6
6 comments
6
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?
1%
207 forecasters
13
26 comments
26
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will there be ≥ 100 deaths due to conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2030?
Resolved :
Yes
286 forecasters
31
155 comments
155
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?
1%
111 forecasters
9
15 comments
15
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?
Resolved :
No
669 forecasters
60
276 comments
276
Israel-Gaza Conflict
Load More