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Will Russia be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?
Ivanivske
92%
Velyka Novosilka
70%
Kostyantynivka
65%
13 others
21
84 comments
84
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict?
2026-01-07
218 forecasters
33
61 comments
61
Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
20%
66 forecasters
8
10 comments
10
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
0.2%
959 forecasters
19
28 comments
28
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
1%
1130 forecasters
44
291 comments
291
ACX 2024 Prediction Contest
Will these countries get a nuclear weapon before 2035?
Iran
69%
Saudi Arabia
20%
South Korea
5%
7 others
8
6 comments
6
Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?
5%
125 forecasters
10
4 comments
4
Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?
5%
57 forecasters
8
3 comments
3
Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?
1%
216 forecasters
20
123 comments
123
Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?
1%
32 forecasters
5
16 comments
16
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