From May 2022 to October 2023, the Forecasting Research Institute (FRI) experimented with a new method of question generation (“conditional trees”) in a study involving 21 AI experts and a group of highly skilled generalist forecasters. In this question series, FRI invites you to forecast on the case study's "ultimate question" (Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?) along with four questions that were found to be most informative nearer-term indicators of the ultimate question. Then, you can forecast four conditional pairs that combine the ultimate question with each of the four indicator questions. We're excited to see how the forecasts of the Metaculus community compare to those in the study.

While the questions elicited in the case study focus on potential risks from advanced AI, the processes described in the forthcoming report can be used to generate valuable questions across fields where forecasting can help decision-makers navigate complex, long-term uncertainties.

You can read the full report from the case study here.