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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Question Series

Five Years After AGI

Start DateJul 22, 2024
End DateJan 2, 2036
Questions33

This first Focus Week is an experimental initiative aiming to make intellectual progress on an important topic as a community: What might the world look like five years after AGI?

AGI’s arrival could trigger radical changes, and it is prudent for society to understand these potential changes to better navigate them. Poor planning for a post-AGI world could lock humanity into a downward trajectory, while wise planning might enable us to make the most of our light cone.

How will power be distributed in a post-AGI world? Will AGI companies have a lot of it? all of it? Might some scientific advances backfire? How exactly will AGI be used for “the benefit of all.”

The focus of this series is possible futures where AGI does not cause human extinction. Unless otherwise indicated, questions condition on AGI not causing extinction.

Questions will remain open even after Focus Week ends.

Series Contents