The forecasting window to compete in the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest is now closed

You are welcome to update your predictions to contribute to greater clarity in 2024, but updates after January 21, 2024, 11:59 PM PT will not contribute to your score.

Welcome to the ACX 2024 Predictions Contest! Share your predictions for the year ahead on questions spanning geopolitics, AI developments, space exploration, and more! Forecast before January 22nd, contribute to accurate aggregate forecasts on important 2024 outcomes, and compete for $2,500 in prizes!

What began as Scott Alexander publishing yearly predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has evolved into an annual forecasting community tradition. It’s an excellent opportunity for veteran and rookie forecasters alike to hone their skills and follow current events through a forecasting lens. This year, Scott Alexander has invited Metaculus to oversee the contest.

We will announce winners in early 2025.

Explore last year’s ACX contest here.

Note: The leaderboard that will appear provides only supplementary information and not information about the actual rankings for this contest.