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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Tournament

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

prize pool$2,500
Start DateJan 1, 2024
End DateFeb 1, 2025
Questions38

The forecasting window to compete in the ACX 2024 Prediction Contest is now closed

You are welcome to update your predictions to contribute to greater clarity in 2024, but updates after January 21, 2024, 11:59 PM PT will not contribute to your score.

Welcome to the ACX 2024 Predictions Contest! Share your predictions for the year ahead on questions spanning geopolitics, AI developments, space exploration, and more! Forecast before January 22nd, contribute to accurate aggregate forecasts on important 2024 outcomes, and compete for $2,500 in prizes!

What began as Scott Alexander publishing yearly predictions on Slate Star Codex and later Astral Codex Ten has evolved into an annual forecasting community tradition. It’s an excellent opportunity for veteran and rookie forecasters alike to hone their skills and follow current events through a forecasting lens. This year, Scott Alexander has invited Metaculus to oversee the contest.

We will announce winners in early 2025.

Explore last year’s ACX contest here.

Note: The leaderboard below was updated on January 21, 2025, to reflect the rankings based on the forecasts as of January 21, 2024, which is the leaderboard used for the final rankings and prizes once all questions have resolved. See the winners announcement for more details.

Questions