Update February 19, 2025: The winners of the short-term phase have been announced. We have also cross-posted the questions into separate short-term and long-term tournaments to more clearly display the leaderboards. The leaderboard shown on this tournament page is for information only.

This first-of-its kind, multi-year biosecurity forecasting tournament was developed in partnership with pandemic preparedness non-profit Guarding Against Pandemics and the research and advocacy think tank the Institute for Progress. The Biosecurity Tournament has three aims: to map out the future biosecurity risk landscape, to help direct resource allocation to the highest-impact interventions, and to inform the distribution of attention and efforts — all with a focus on global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs).

The Metaculus Community’s forecasts will be shared with public health experts, informing their decision making and helping to mitigate future COVID-like risks. Guarding Against Pandemics has generously provided a $25,000 prize pool to support forecasting efforts.

Round 1 of this tournament is open for forecasting, with new questions arriving on 2022-6-16, 2022-6-23, 2022-6-30. We appreciate the forecasting community’s insights and expertise in furthering this critical initiative.

Read on for additional detail about how this tournament is structured, how prizes are awarded, and how forecasts are scored.

The leaderboard below is for information only. For the final rankings, see the short-term and long-term tournament pages.