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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Biosecurity Tournament

prize pool$25,000
Start DateJun 9, 2022
End DateJan 2, 2025
Questions36

This first-of-its kind, multi-year biosecurity forecasting tournament was developed in partnership with pandemic preparedness non-profit Guarding Against Pandemics and the research and advocacy think tank the Institute for Progress. The Biosecurity Tournament has three aims: to map out the future biosecurity risk landscape, to help direct resource allocation to the highest-impact interventions, and to inform the distribution of attention and efforts — all with a focus on global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs).

The Metaculus Community’s forecasts will be shared with public health experts, informing their decision making and helping to mitigate future COVID-like risks. Guarding Against Pandemics has generously provided a $25,000 prize pool to support forecasting efforts.

Round 1 of this tournament is open for forecasting, with new questions arriving on 2022-6-16, 2022-6-23, 2022-6-30. We appreciate the forecasting community’s insights and expertise in furthering this critical initiative.

Read on for additional detail about how this tournament is structured, how prizes are awarded, and how forecasts are scored.

Questions