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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Tournament

Chinese AI Chips

Start DateDec 6, 2023
End DateJan 2, 2033
Questions26

Welcome to the Chinese AI Chips Tournament: This initiative aims to clarify critical open questions in AI governance, supporting Institute for AI Policy and Strategy (IAPS) research and ultimately promoting more effective US policy. Your forecasts can help.

January 11, 2024 Update: Round 2 of the Chinese AI Chips is open, with new questions addressing broader themes relevant to Chinese AI capabilities.

China is prioritizing independence in AI chip design and manufacturing. While the Chinese semiconductor industry has made significant progress, it faces headwinds in replicating a globalized supply chain: The machines producing today’s cutting-edge semiconductors are some of the most advanced technology to ever exist, and the supply chain is spread across Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, South Korea, Taiwan, and the United States.

Better understanding China’s ability to produce its own AI chips over the coming years will help shed light on key issues for AI governance like:

  • How will Chinese AI systems compare to systems developed by frontrunner labs like OpenAI?
  • Will we see major, state-sanctioned AI chip smuggling operations?

IAPS researcher Erich Grunewald developed this tournament’s questions and has shared a primer on Chinese AI chips, co-written with independent researcher Chris Phenicie, to quickly get forecasters up to speed.

Questions