February 1, 2023 update: Metaculus has released the 'Forecasting Our World in Data: The Next 100 Years' report, detailing forecasters' predictions and analysis on the questions developed by Our World in Data for this tournament.
The Forecasting Our World in Data tournament probes the long-term future, delivering predictions on topics like global investment in AI, world life expectancy, CO2 emissions, and more on time horizons from one to 100 years. This close collaboration with Our World In Data (OWID) collects predictions across 30 different measures of technological advancement, global development, and social progress.
Overview
OWID is one of the world’s largest open online repositories of data, and it's an incredible source of information about both humanity’s progress and challenges. Your forecasts will be used to generate likelihoods of specific outcomes in humanity’s near- and long-term future. And throughout the tournament, a team of Metaculus Pro Forecasters will also predict alongside the public tournament.
A $20,000 prize pool will reward accurate forecasts on 1 and 3-year outcomes and insightful comments on 10, 30, and 100-year outcomes.
The release of new questions is staggered, with 10 questions released on each of the following dates:
- Wednesday, October 12
- Wednesday, October 19
- Wednesday, October 26
We want to extend our thanks to Future Fund for the grant funding making this project possible. And as always, we are incredibly grateful to the Metaculus community for your forecasts contributing to a greater understanding of humanity’s near- and long-term future!
Read on for additional detail about how this tournament is structured, how prizes are awarded, and how forecasts are scored.
