The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will determine control of the House and Senate for the remainder of President Trump's term, along with governorships across the states. The balance of Congress shapes what legislation can pass, which nominees are confirmed, and how much oversight the executive branch faces. This tournament opens with questions on the election outcomes themselves and will expand in the coming weeks to cover the policy and institutional questions that follow from the results.

Forecast below. The community prediction is featured on our midterms dashboard, which tracks the most uncertain races and the electoral consequences.

Tournament Structure

This tournament features a $10,000 prize pool across approximately 65 questions, most of which are open now, with the remainder added over the coming weeks.

Questions that opened before the tournament's start date will be scored only from that date for leaderboard and prize purposes. All questions will close by early November 2026, however prizes will be awarded at the beginning of 2029, so that conditional questions can be evaluated.

Forecasts are scored using our usual time-averaged scores. Learn more about forecast scoring.

By participating in this competition you agree to be bound and abide by the Rules for Competitions on Metaculus.

US Midterms 2026

Questions