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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Tournament

Respiratory Outlook 2023/24

Start DateDec 1, 2023
End DateJul 1, 2025
Questions31

Welcome to Respiratory Outlook 2023/24: developing forecasts on the trajectories of influenza, COVID-19, and RSV for the 2023/24 respiratory disease season. This initiative builds on Metaculus’s previous contributions to the public health ecosystem while advancing the integration of new data science and hybrid intelligence techniques.

This program is designed to demonstrate the effectiveness of crowd forecasting in real-time decision-making, highlighting how it can aid public health officials in responding to ongoing epidemiological changes and better anticipating future conditions.

We greatly appreciate the forecasting community’s insights and expertise in this important public health initiative. Your predictions can help refine epidemiological models and support a more effective public health response this respiratory disease season.

This project is supported by the National Science Foundation under Award No. 2348262. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this project are those of Metaculus and our forecasters, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Questions