Scientific discovery, economic windfalls, technological breakthroughs, and geopolitical dominance — much hangs in the balance as humanity embarks on a new chapter in spaceflight, exploration, and commercialization.

The Sagan Space Tournament forecasts a range of significant milestones — lunar occupation, private space tourism, and space debris risks — building on the Metaculus community’s strong foundation forecasting these topics. This tournament is not just for intellectual curiosity alone — it is designed to produce valuable insights and enhance our understanding of technological timelines, spaceflight accessibility, and geopolitical implications. We hope to use our community’s forecasts, comments, and insights to inform key decision makers in space governance.

Space is quickly becoming more accessible to many — developing countries, private entities, even schools can launch spacecraft; civilian tourists can travel beyond the atmosphere; China is preparing its own space station; and NASA’s Artemis program is aiming to send humans back to the moon in 2024. And that isn’t all; projects are underway to send astronauts to Mars, mine asteroids, construct massive constellations of satellites, and even transmit solar power from space to Earth.

However, Earth’s orbit and our near solar system is a common pool resource for humanity without a central authority. This results in a serious governance and collective action problem, which some have likened to the Wild West. A better understanding of the near-term developments in spaceflight and exploration could help us anticipate and address the resulting challenges in governance. Forecasting can play an important role in this effort.

Carl Sagan brought astronomy, science, and a curiosity for space into homes around the world, and this tournament is inspired by the unique brand of science communication that is his legacy.

We are grateful to the Metaculus community for sharing your valuable insights and contributing to our shared understanding of spaceflight and exploration timelines!