M

đź“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Tournament

đź›° The Sagan Space Tournament đź›°

prize pool$5,000
Start DateNov 30, 2022
End DateJan 5, 2031
Questions37

Scientific discovery, economic windfalls, technological breakthroughs, and geopolitical dominance — much hangs in the balance as humanity embarks on a new chapter in spaceflight, exploration, and commercialization.

The Sagan Space Tournament forecasts a range of significant milestones — lunar occupation, private space tourism, and space debris risks — building on the Metaculus community’s strong foundation forecasting these topics. This tournament is not just for intellectual curiosity alone — it is designed to produce valuable insights and enhance our understanding of technological timelines, spaceflight accessibility, and geopolitical implications. We hope to use our community’s forecasts, comments, and insights to inform key decision makers in space governance.

Space is quickly becoming more accessible to many — developing countries, private entities, even schools can launch spacecraft; civilian tourists can travel beyond the atmosphere; China is preparing its own space station; and NASA’s Artemis program is aiming to send humans back to the moon in 2024. And that isn’t all; projects are underway to send astronauts to Mars, mine asteroids, construct massive constellations of satellites, and even transmit solar power from space to Earth.

However, Earth’s orbit and our near solar system is a common pool resource for humanity without a central authority. This results in a serious governance and collective action problem, which some have likened to the Wild West. A better understanding of the near-term developments in spaceflight and exploration could help us anticipate and address the resulting challenges in governance. Forecasting can play an important role in this effort.

Carl Sagan brought astronomy, science, and a curiosity for space into homes around the world, and this tournament is inspired by the unique brand of science communication that is his legacy.

We are grateful to the Metaculus community for sharing your valuable insights and contributing to our shared understanding of spaceflight and exploration timelines!

Questions