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📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

Keep Virginia Safe Tournament

prize pool$2,500
Start DateApr 29, 2021
End DateMar 1, 2023
Questions89

May 9, 2023: Congratulations to the top 3 prize winners of the Keep Virginia Safe Tournament, Sergio, 2e10e122, and mattvdm, and thank you to all who participated! Read more about the conclusion of the tournament in this discussion post.

July 31, 2022: Read the report summarizing the results of the Keep Virginia Safe Tournament here.

Since March 2020, Metaculus has been providing forecasting and modeling resources to public health professionals and public policy experts as they have navigated critical decisions about COVID-19 interventions in communities around the world.

Public health officials in Virginia are currently weighing key decisions, with the following questions and others under careful consideration:

  • How many new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths can we expect in this new Delta-driven wave?
  • How will the levels and causes of vaccine hesitancy change over the coming months?
  • When will a vaccine be authorized for children under 12?
  • When will a vaccine receive full FDA approval?
  • How many school districts might participate in weekly screening/testing programs?
  • Will there be new variants capable of overtaking Delta?

This Tournament will directly address these key scientific and policy questions by aggregating knowledge from many experts and forecasters.

The tournament will run from April 2021 until April 2022, with two types of questions:

  • Calibration Questions: these close before the end date of the tournament, and are used to rank you in the tournament
  • Long-term Questions: in order to probe far into the future, and build the Metaculus data set on predictions, we are including a number of far-reaching questions that may not resolve for many years.

Thank you for your contributions to this initiative, and as always, Happy Predicting!

Questions