Forecasting for a complex world
Metaculus offers trustworthy forecasting and modeling infrastructure for forecasters, decision makers, and the public.Focus Areas
We create forecasts and advance research, decision making, and policy in four main topic areas.
biosecurity
Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemicsSee ForecastsAI progress
Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to societySee Forecastsnuclear security
Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing futureSee Forecastsclimate change
Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activitySee ForecastsForecasting Tournaments
Join our tournaments and predict real world events, timelines, and impacts and win prizes for accuracy.
Q4 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament
๐ Quarterly Cup ๐
Respiratory Outlook 2024/25
Forecast With GiveWell
Research & Updates
Our partners use Metaculus forecasts to gain insight into complex challenges and decisions.
Predictions as Public Works Project โย What Metaculus Is Building Next
Metaculus is entering a new era. Forecasting should lead to smarter decisions on consequential issu...
Q3 AI Benchmarking: Did Bots Outperform Human Forecasters?
The Q3 AI Benchmarking Series aimed to assess how the best bots compare to the best humans on real-w...
A Massive Rewrite, A Slate of Improvements, and Going Open Source
Big news: We massively overhauled Metaculusโs code to add new features, improve others, and make it ...
Mpox Rapid Information Aggregation
When an unexpected number of Mpox cases were reported in early May 2022, Metaculus organized a rapid...
Engage with Metaculus
Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.
We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If youโre a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!