Forecasting for a complex world
Metaculus offers trustworthy forecasting and modeling infrastructure for forecasters, decision makers, and the public.Focus Areas
We create forecasts and advance research, decision making, and policy in four main topic areas.
biosecurity
Improving global health by understanding infectious diseases and preparing for future pandemicsSee ForecastsAI progress
Exploring the future of artificial intelligence technologies and the impacts to societySee Forecastsnuclear security
Quantifying global risks to keep us safe and secure for a flourishing futureSee Forecastsclimate change
Predicting long-term shifts in temperature and weather patterns caused by human activitySee ForecastsResearch & Updates
Our partners use Metaculus forecasts to gain insight into complex challenges and decisions.
The State of Metaculus
The Metaculus of early 2025 is a different and better place in myriad ways than the Metaculus of a y...
Announcing Indexes: Big Questions, Quantified
The most important questions in forecasting tend to resist precise definitions โ questions like, โWi...
Conference Summary: Threshold 2030 - Modeling AI Economic Futures
These are some overall takeaways from our Threshold 2030 conference. Weโll discuss the purpose of th...
Predictions as Public Works Project โย What Metaculus Is Building Next
Metaculus is entering a new era. Forecasting should lead to smarter decisions on consequential issu...
Engage with Metaculus
Learn how you can partner with Metaculus to host a forecasting tournament, collaborate on forecasting research, hire our Pro Forecasters for custom projects, or set up a private forecasting space for your organization.
We love working with non-profits in our core focus areas. If youโre a non-profit seeking forecasting and modeling capacity or are interested in collaborating on a grant, please reach out!
