Question Feed | Metaculus

0 comments

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

6 comments

34 forecasters

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Current estimate

154 $

5 comments

30 forecasters

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

70%chance

33.8% this week

3 comments

4 forecasters

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

Less than or equal to 50% (the referendum fails)67.1%

Greater than 50% and less than 53%21.2%

Greater than or equal to 53% and less than 56%8.9%

Greater than or equal to 56%2.7%

0 comments

2026 US Midterms Tracker

Animal Futures Tournament

$3,400 prize pool

New Tournament

Closes in 2 years5 forecasters

19 comments

74 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Chad Bianco0.1%

Steve Hilton5%

Katie Porter0.1%

Xavier Becerra94.6%

4 others

0 comments

11 forecasters

Host Nation in World Cup Semifinals 2026

5%chance

37 comments

819 forecasters

ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

24%chance

Key Factors

Watered down EO reduces likelihood

0 comments

4 forecasters

Will a CJP protest gather 20k participants before 2027?

50%chance

2 comments

8 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an S-1 with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

70%chance

1 comment

52 forecasters

2026 WSOP Main Event winner total bracelets?

Current estimate

1.55 bracelets

2 comments

5 forecasters

UK Parliament approve greenhouse gas emissions target by 2040?

80%chance

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range by July 30, 2026?

15%chance

3 comments

8 forecasters

How many screwworm animal cases will there be in the US before 2026?

Current estimate

61 animal cases

2 comments

11 forecasters

Will PayPal’s proposed bank receive FDIC approval before July 1, 2027?

49.8%chance

1 comment

3 forecasters

General elections in Spain before May 2027?

50%chance

22 comments

123 forecasters

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country before Sept 2026?

97%chance

17% this week

Key Factors

Centenary strengthens San Marino visit
No signals of surprise travel in summer 2026
Summer vacation closes July travel window

3 comments

10 forecasters

Iceland most peaceful country in 2026-2029?

2026result: Yes

202792.5%

202890%

202987.5%

0 comments

4 forecasters

Hakainde Hichilema receives 65+% in Zambia's 2026 presidential election round 1?

50%chance

0 comments

10 forecasters

Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" referendum?

36%chance

0 comments

6 forecasters

How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?

Current estimate

24.7k jobs

2 comments

3 forecasters

India 55°C (131°F) for 3 Days before 2050?

50%chance

7 comments

110 forecasters

Will DOJ leaders deviate to protect the President or his allies in these years?

3 comments

103 forecasters

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

2026 US Midterms Tracker

Animal Futures Tournament

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Host Nation in World Cup Semifinals 2026

ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

Will a CJP protest gather 20k participants before 2027?

Will OpenAI file an S-1 with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

2026 WSOP Main Event winner total bracelets?

UK Parliament approve greenhouse gas emissions target by 2040?

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range by July 30, 2026?

How many screwworm animal cases will there be in the US before 2026?

Will PayPal’s proposed bank receive FDIC approval before July 1, 2027?

General elections in Spain before May 2027?

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country before Sept 2026?

Iceland most peaceful country in 2026-2029?

Hakainde Hichilema receives 65+% in Zambia's 2026 presidential election round 1?

Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" referendum?

How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?

India 55°C (131°F) for 3 Days before 2050?

Will DOJ leaders deviate to protect the President or his allies in these years?

Will DOJ leaders deviate to prosecute a presidential opponent in these years?

Forecasting the Future of Animals: $3,400 in prizes

SpaceX last closing price at end of August 2026?

Wild animal infected with New World screwworm in the US before 2027?

What percentage of votes will be for Yes in Iceland's August 2026 EU referendum?

2026 US Midterms Tracker

Animal Futures Tournament

Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?

Host Nation in World Cup Semifinals 2026

ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?

Will a CJP protest gather 20k participants before 2027?

Will OpenAI file an S-1 with the SEC to launch an IPO, before September 1, 2026?

2026 WSOP Main Event winner total bracelets?

UK Parliament approve greenhouse gas emissions target by 2040?

Will the Federal Reserve raise the federal funds target range by July 30, 2026?

How many screwworm animal cases will there be in the US before 2026?

Will PayPal’s proposed bank receive FDIC approval before July 1, 2027?

General elections in Spain before May 2027?

Will Pope Leo XIV visit another country before Sept 2026?

Iceland most peaceful country in 2026-2029?

Hakainde Hichilema receives 65+% in Zambia's 2026 presidential election round 1?

Will Swiss voters approve the "No to a Switzerland with 10 million" referendum?

How many software development jobs will be posted on Upwork on July 1, 2026?

India 55°C (131°F) for 3 Days before 2050?

Will DOJ leaders deviate to protect the President or his allies in these years?

Will DOJ leaders deviate to prosecute a presidential opponent in these years?