We're excited to award five prizes of $100 each to the top comments submitted to the Global Pulse Tournament. Here are the winners:

1. skmmcj — $400
2. Jgalt — $100

The Global Pulse Tournament, run in cooperation with the Behavioural Lab at the London School of Economics, serves not only as a valuable research input for the Behavioural Lab, but also as a useful source of information on global topics of interest. In-depth commentary is beneficial not only to forecasters to help them make predictions, but to those seeking more context for the probabilities. The winning commentary for this tournament included:

• skmmcj's painstaking compilation of WHO polio reports into one very handy spreadsheet.
• Jgalt's discussion of potential scenarios for the UK Conservative Party.
• skmmcj's assertion of a misleading trend in China's violations of Taiwan's air defense identification zone.

Thank you to everyone who shared their reasoning in the comments! We look forward to sharing the results of the tournament when it ends in June.

Congratulations again to our commenting prize winners skmmcj and Jgalt!

Here are all of the winning comments with a link to the relevant comment:

1. skmmcj: Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?
2. skmmcj: Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024?
3. Jgalt: Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?
4. skmmcj: What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024?
5. skmmcj: What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024?