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Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Nathan Young on the progress of Waymo vs Tesla robotaxis?

Gary Marcus win73.3%
Nathan Young win19.8%
Other6.8%

Q1 AI Benchmarking Results: Pros Crush Bots

14
3 comments3
Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament

Important Updates to Prediction Auto-withdrawal

7
60 comments60

Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

38%chance
15% this week

Key Factor

China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy

Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

40%chance
10% this week

Key Factor

Public statements likely due to crisis with Israel

Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between Israel and Iran in 2025?

93%chance
13% this week

Will Zohran Mamdani be elected Mayor of New York City in 2025?

90%chance
58.5% this week

Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?

40%chance
7% today

Platform feature suggestions

112
2944 comments2944
Metaculus Meta

Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?

30%chance
35% this week