Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api
{ "count": 4972, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "previous": null, "results": [ { "id": 36016, "title": "Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?", "url_title": "Another Russian or UK diplomat expulsion before Apr 8, 2025?", "slug": "another-russian-or-uk-diplomat-expulsion-before-apr-8-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-13T22:31:15.149492Z", "published_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:32.832336Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-14T11:34:00.197039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:32.832334Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-08T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "tag", "is_global_leaderboard": true } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35448, "title": "Will any more Russian or UK diplomats be expelled or recalled from UK or Russia, respectively, before April 8, 2025?", "description": "Diplomatic tensions between Russia and the UK have been rising since 2024, with expulsions from both sides. In May 2024 the UK [expelled](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/08/uk-to-expel-russian-defence-attache-as-sanctions-escalate) Russia’s defence attache as an \"undeclared military intelligence officer\", removed diplomatic premises status from several Russian-owned properties, and imposed new restrictions on Russian diplomatic visas. Then, in September, Russia retaliated by [accusing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw8wp0w29vo) six UK diplomats for spying and revoked their accreditation, terminating their diplomatic status in Russia. This [was followed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98dzyg8y3ro) by a UK diplomat expulsion in November, also accused of spying by Russia. The diplomatic standoff has continued into 2025, in a tit-for-tat fashion, with the UK [expelling](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8xp5gg04do) one diplomat in February, Russia [responding](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/europe/russia-expels-british-diplomats-intl/index.html) with two expulsions in early March, and the UK promptly responding by [expelling](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/12/uk-accuses-russia-of-driving-its-moscow-embassy-towards-closure) one more diplomat.", "created_at": "2025-03-13T22:31:15.149909Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T01:17:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 8, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) have reported that any of the following has taken place between the UK and Russia after March 14, 2025:\n\n* The expulsion of at least one diplomat.\n* The recall of at least one diplomat.\n* The revocation of the accreditation of at least one diplomat.", "fine_print": "To resolve as **Yes**, the event has to involve an individual described as a diplomat by credible sources or an individual meeting the definition of a diplomatic agent [by LSData](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent):\n\n> ...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. Their job is to communicate with the government of the country they are in and promote their own country's interests.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 36016, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Diplomatic tensions between Russia and the UK have been rising since 2024, with expulsions from both sides. In May 2024 the UK [expelled](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/may/08/uk-to-expel-russian-defence-attache-as-sanctions-escalate) Russia’s defence attache as an \"undeclared military intelligence officer\", removed diplomatic premises status from several Russian-owned properties, and imposed new restrictions on Russian diplomatic visas. Then, in September, Russia retaliated by [accusing](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpw8wp0w29vo) six UK diplomats for spying and revoked their accreditation, terminating their diplomatic status in Russia. This [was followed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c98dzyg8y3ro) by a UK diplomat expulsion in November, also accused of spying by Russia. The diplomatic standoff has continued into 2025, in a tit-for-tat fashion, with the UK [expelling](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn8xp5gg04do) one diplomat in February, Russia [responding](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/europe/russia-expels-british-diplomats-intl/index.html) with two expulsions in early March, and the UK promptly responding by [expelling](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/mar/12/uk-accuses-russia-of-driving-its-moscow-embassy-towards-closure) one more diplomat." }, { "id": 36013, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?", "url_title": "Major civil unrest or martial law in Philippines in 2025?", "slug": "major-civil-unrest-or-martial-law-in-philippines-in-2025", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-13T13:21:15.666955Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-13T13:22:44.776843Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-13T13:22:44.776838Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35443, "title": "Will there be major civil unrest or martial law in the Philippines in 2025?", "description": "On March 11, 2025, [former president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) and flown to the Netherlands for trial at the [International Criminal Court](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court). Current president Bongbong Marcos has said the arrest is not political repression against his predecessor, who is the father of current vice president Sara Duterte. Marcos is the son of [Ferdinand Marcos](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ferdinand-E-Marcos), Philippines head of state from 1965 to 1986, who ruled as an authoritarian, including a 9-year period of martial law.\n\nThe Philippines has experienced [decades of civil conflict of varying intensity, including by separatists, communists, and state actors](https://gsdrc.org/publications/conflict-analysis-of-the-philippines/). Conflict deaths since 1989 are over 20,000, averaging 585 per year ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-country?tab=chart\\&country=~PHL)):\n\n\n\nGeographically, these conflicts are concentrated in [Mindanao](https://www.britannica.com/place/Mindanao), a southern island that is the Philippines' second largest. Truces among and within these groups are [often mediated by the military or police](https://apnews.com/article/southern-philippines-land-dispute-moro-islamic-liberation-front-a9d2d4e185409279a21f19c2deaae368). Prior to his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte had served as a popular mayor of Davao City, Mindanao's largest city. Duterte's relative popularity in the Davao area stems partly from his reputation as a law-and-order figure and effective truce broker among local fighting groups.\n\n[Martial law has been declared four times in the history of the Philippines](https://www.esquiremag.ph/long-reads/features/martial-law-in-the-philippines-a00289-20200922-lfrm?s=ths48uim0s26782srnenrq1vj2): in 1944, 1972, 2009, and 2017.", "created_at": "2025-03-13T13:21:15.667299Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that any of the following has occurred in the Philippines between January 1, 2025 and January 1, 2026:\n\n* Deaths of at least 1,000 people due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents, cumulative throughout 2025\n* The arrest of at least 5,000 people by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents, cumulative throughout 2025\n* Declaration of martial law anywhere in the Philippines\n\nResolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "For deaths or arrests to count toward the overall toll, they must occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest. Deaths from generic shootings or homicides, or those that occur due to medical emergencies not related to rioting or unrest, do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides do not count.\n\nMartial law must be declared by the national government, but it need not be national in scope. The 2017 declaration applied only to Mindanao; a similar declaration during 2025 would result in **Yes** resolution.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 36013, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2025, [former president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) and flown to the Netherlands for trial at the [International Criminal Court](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court). Current president Bongbong Marcos has said the arrest is not political repression against his predecessor, who is the father of current vice president Sara Duterte. Marcos is the son of [Ferdinand Marcos](https://www.britannica.com/biography/Ferdinand-E-Marcos), Philippines head of state from 1965 to 1986, who ruled as an authoritarian, including a 9-year period of martial law.\n\nThe Philippines has experienced [decades of civil conflict of varying intensity, including by separatists, communists, and state actors](https://gsdrc.org/publications/conflict-analysis-of-the-philippines/). Conflict deaths since 1989 are over 20,000, averaging 585 per year ([source](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/deaths-in-armed-conflicts-by-country?tab=chart\\&country=~PHL)):\n\n\n\nGeographically, these conflicts are concentrated in [Mindanao](https://www.britannica.com/place/Mindanao), a southern island that is the Philippines' second largest. Truces among and within these groups are [often mediated by the military or police](https://apnews.com/article/southern-philippines-land-dispute-moro-islamic-liberation-front-a9d2d4e185409279a21f19c2deaae368). Prior to his presidency, Rodrigo Duterte had served as a popular mayor of Davao City, Mindanao's largest city. Duterte's relative popularity in the Davao area stems partly from his reputation as a law-and-order figure and effective truce broker among local fighting groups.\n\n[Martial law has been declared four times in the history of the Philippines](https://www.esquiremag.ph/long-reads/features/martial-law-in-the-philippines-a00289-20200922-lfrm?s=ths48uim0s26782srnenrq1vj2): in 1944, 1972, 2009, and 2017." }, { "id": 36012, "title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?", "url_title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted by the ICC by 2030?", "slug": "will-rodrigo-duterte-be-convicted-by-the-icc-by-2030", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-13T12:15:23.833590Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-13T13:21:52.842603Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-13T13:21:52.842598Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35442, "title": "Will Rodrigo Duterte be convicted of any crime by the International Criminal Court by 2030?", "description": "On March 11, 2025, fomer president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte [was arrested in the Manila airport](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and flown to the Netherlands to begin trial at The Hague. The ICC stated that the charges included [\"murder as a crime against humanity allegedly committed in the Philippines between Nov. 1, 2011, and March 16, 2019.\"](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) The alleged murders are connected with anti-drug crackdowns which Duterte led as president, and earlier as mayor of Davao.\n\nIn a speech two days earlier, [Duterte had mentioned the possibility of being arrested](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-duterte-hong-kong-icc-b3edef9d7e5dafa1a2a8024f3729e61d):\n\n> “What was my sin?” Duterte asked in his speech in Hong Kong. “I did everything in my time so Filipinos can have a little peace and tranquility.”\n\n> “If this is my fate in life, it’s OK, I’ll accept it. I can’t do anything if I get arrested and jailed,” said the former populist president, now 79 and in poor health.\n\n> He told the crowd in jest to make small contributions for the construction of his monument, which he said should show him holding a gun.\n\n[The ICC was established in 2002 and has 125 member countries](https://apnews.com/article/duterte-icc-philippines-arrest-court-hague-6d5fc9ee32c14126c6867be1108a2e80) as of 2025. Several prominent countries such as the United States, China, and Russia are not members. The Philippines withdrew in 2019 under Duterte's presidency. According to the ICC, its jurisdiction [\"extends to offenses that occurred after July 1, 2002, that were committed either in a state that has ratified the agreement or by a national of such a state.\"](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court)\n\nThe ICC does not have its own police force, but it has a detention facility in The Hague. The ICC has issued 60 arrest warrants in its history, including against high-profile figures like Russian president Vladimir Putin, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir. The Court has convicted 11 people.", "created_at": "2025-03-13T12:15:23.833922Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the International Criminal Court has convicted Rodrigo Duterte of a crime prior to January 1, 2030. Resolution is still Yes even if Duterte is never sentenced or if the conviction is later invalidated or overturned. Resolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 36012, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2025, fomer president of the Philippines Rodrigo Duterte [was arrested in the Manila airport](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) on a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and flown to the Netherlands to begin trial at The Hague. The ICC stated that the charges included [\"murder as a crime against humanity allegedly committed in the Philippines between Nov. 1, 2011, and March 16, 2019.\"](https://apnews.com/article/rodrigo-duterte-manila-philippines-icc-9b9d08b8832b43282db53418535fb245) The alleged murders are connected with anti-drug crackdowns which Duterte led as president, and earlier as mayor of Davao.\n\nIn a speech two days earlier, [Duterte had mentioned the possibility of being arrested](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-duterte-hong-kong-icc-b3edef9d7e5dafa1a2a8024f3729e61d):\n\n> “What was my sin?” Duterte asked in his speech in Hong Kong. “I did everything in my time so Filipinos can have a little peace and tranquility.”\n\n> “If this is my fate in life, it’s OK, I’ll accept it. I can’t do anything if I get arrested and jailed,” said the former populist president, now 79 and in poor health.\n\n> He told the crowd in jest to make small contributions for the construction of his monument, which he said should show him holding a gun.\n\n[The ICC was established in 2002 and has 125 member countries](https://apnews.com/article/duterte-icc-philippines-arrest-court-hague-6d5fc9ee32c14126c6867be1108a2e80) as of 2025. Several prominent countries such as the United States, China, and Russia are not members. The Philippines withdrew in 2019 under Duterte's presidency. According to the ICC, its jurisdiction [\"extends to offenses that occurred after July 1, 2002, that were committed either in a state that has ratified the agreement or by a national of such a state.\"](https://www.britannica.com/topic/International-Criminal-Court)\n\nThe ICC does not have its own police force, but it has a detention facility in The Hague. The ICC has issued 60 arrest warrants in its history, including against high-profile figures like Russian president Vladimir Putin, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir. The Court has convicted 11 people." }, { "id": 36002, "title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "slug": "will-sp-500-recover-half-its-drop-by-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-12T14:27:39.902918Z", "published_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:49.330307Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-14T11:33:58.184474Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-14T01:18:49.330305Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "tag", "is_global_leaderboard": true } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35433, "title": "Will S&P 500 recover half its drop by April 7, 2025?", "description": "From February 19, 2025 to March 11, 2025, the S\\&P 500 saw a significant decline of 9.3%, dropping from \\$6,144.15 to \\$5,572.07, the [largest decrease](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ominous-market-signals-show-more-trouble-could-await-us-stocks-2025-03-12/) since 2023.\n\n\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/a642cc9d-5c7c-4254-b6c1-be0bdc6fb4f1):\n\n> Trump’s on-off approach to tariffs on US trade partners has roiled markets, while a crackdown on immigration and cuts in the public sector have led to fears that inflation may surge and GDP growth could slow.", "created_at": "2025-03-12T14:27:39.903344Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-17T01:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between the launch of this question and the end of trading on April 7, 2025 (inclusive), the S\\&P 500 closes at \\$5,858.11 or higher, the midpoint between its highest close (\\$6,144.15) and recent dip (\\$5,572.07), according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).", "fine_print": "A resolution of Yes requires the \"Close\" price displayed by Yahoo Finance to be ≥\\$5,858.11. Intraday prices will not count. ", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 36002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From February 19, 2025 to March 11, 2025, the S\\&P 500 saw a significant decline of 9.3%, dropping from \\$6,144.15 to \\$5,572.07, the [largest decrease](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ominous-market-signals-show-more-trouble-could-await-us-stocks-2025-03-12/) since 2023.\n\n\n\nAccording to the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/a642cc9d-5c7c-4254-b6c1-be0bdc6fb4f1):\n\n> Trump’s on-off approach to tariffs on US trade partners has roiled markets, while a crackdown on immigration and cuts in the public sector have led to fears that inflation may surge and GDP growth could slow." }, { "id": 36000, "title": "Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "url_title": "Will the US import oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "slug": "will-the-us-import-oil-from-russia-between-2025-and-2030", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-12T05:36:32.245686Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:56:28.953494Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T00:46:19.575592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-12T21:56:28.953491Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-04-30T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T21:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35431, "title": "Will the United States import any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030?", "description": "US imports of crude oil from Russia began with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and reached 269 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in 2010, representing about 3% of imports. Imports fell to zero in the wake of sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine ([source](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM_NUS-NRS_2\\&f=A)):\n\n\n\nMeanwhile the US continued to import large volumes of crude oil from other countries. [The US imported about 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024, of which 62% came from Canada](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_IMPCUS_A2_NUS_EPC0_IM0_MBBLPD_A.htm):\n\n\n\nIf the US government removes sanctions on Russian energy products, it is possible that US imports of Russian crude oil will resume.", "created_at": "2025-03-12T05:36:32.246061Z", "open_time": "2025-03-14T21:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-19T21:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-04-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if the United States imports any crude oil from Russia between 2025 and 2030 (inclusive). Resolution source is US Energy Information Administration (EIA): [https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM\\_NUS-NRS\\_1\\&f=A](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM_NUS-NRS_1\\&f=A)\n\nResolution is **No** if no such imports are reported for the interval.\n\nData for 2030 are expected to be published by March 2031.", "fine_print": "Definitions of \"Russia\" and \"crude oil\" follow EIA. For example, if [Russia and Belarus fully merge and the combination is renamed](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2021/an-ever-closer-union/2-historical-and-legal-context/), resolution of this question will treat the new entity as a successor to Russia if and only if EIA so treats it (e.g., by continuing the Russia time series under the new entity's name). If EIA ends its Russia time series and creates a new one for the new entity, then the question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf EIA stops publishing data on US imports of Russian for some other reason, Metaculus admins will identify another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If they determine none is available, then the question will be **annulled**.\n\nResolution is based on figures as reported by resolution source. For example, if EIA rounds a figure (such as by rounding a very small number down to zero), then resolution will be based on rounded figure.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 36000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US imports of crude oil from Russia began with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s and reached 269 thousand barrels per day (kbd) in 2010, representing about 3% of imports. Imports fell to zero in the wake of sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine ([source](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET\\&s=MCRIM_NUS-NRS_2\\&f=A)):\n\n\n\nMeanwhile the US continued to import large volumes of crude oil from other countries. [The US imported about 6.6 million barrels per day in 2024, of which 62% came from Canada](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_IMPCUS_A2_NUS_EPC0_IM0_MBBLPD_A.htm):\n\n\n\nIf the US government removes sanctions on Russian energy products, it is possible that US imports of Russian crude oil will resume." }, { "id": 35991, "title": "Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?", "url_title": "U.S lifting cap on Russian oil?", "slug": "us-lifting-cap-on-russian-oil", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "aimsdesire@gmail.com", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-11T09:37:44.992781Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T01:32:29.514519Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T00:46:02.013006Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-12T01:32:29.514517Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T01:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "tag", "is_global_leaderboard": true } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35424, "title": "Will the US lift the price cap on Russian oil before July 1, 2025?", "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> The U.S., along with its G7 allies and the European Union, imposed a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 as part of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to limit Russia’s revenue from oil exports, which help fund its war efforts, while maintaining global oil supply stability. The cap, set at \\$60 per barrel, restricted Western companies from providing services like shipping and insurance for Russian oil sold above this price. This measure aimed to reduce Russia’s economic power while avoiding a sharp spike in global oil prices.\n\nThere is a possibility that Trump could lift the Russian oil price cap due to his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. Currently, he is pressuring Ukraine to agree on peace deal. Additionally, Trump aims to lower oil prices, as it aligns with his \"Make America Great Again\" slogan and would be politically beneficial for him.", "created_at": "2025-03-11T09:37:44.993113Z", "open_time": "2025-03-16T01:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-21T01:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Office of Foreign Assets Control's current [price cap](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2022/12/27/2022-28153/russian-harmful-foreign-activities-sanctions-regulations-determination) of \\$60 per barrel on crude oil from the Russian Federation is lifted or eliminated before July 1, 2025. If it remains at \\$60 (or lower) on that date, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35991, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> The U.S., along with its G7 allies and the European Union, imposed a price cap on Russian oil in December 2022 as part of sanctions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. The goal was to limit Russia’s revenue from oil exports, which help fund its war efforts, while maintaining global oil supply stability. The cap, set at \\$60 per barrel, restricted Western companies from providing services like shipping and insurance for Russian oil sold above this price. This measure aimed to reduce Russia’s economic power while avoiding a sharp spike in global oil prices.\n\nThere is a possibility that Trump could lift the Russian oil price cap due to his good relationship with Vladimir Putin. Currently, he is pressuring Ukraine to agree on peace deal. Additionally, Trump aims to lower oil prices, as it aligns with his \"Make America Great Again\" slogan and would be politically beneficial for him." }, { "id": 35975, "title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "url_title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4?", "slug": "will-anthropic-release-claude-4", "author_id": 212021, "author_username": "noah_h_kim", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T23:24:13.955594Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T23:26:29.959493Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T02:50:57.284026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T23:26:29.959491Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32684, "name": "Brown Forecasting Tournament", "type": "community", "slug": "brown-tournament", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 212021, "username": "noah_h_kim", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35406, "title": "Will Anthropic release Claude 4 before May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET?", "description": "Claude is Anthropic's series of AI language models, competing with OpenAI’s GPT and Google DeepMind’s Gemini models. The company has adopted a structured release strategy, with:\n\n* **Claude 1** launching in March 2023\n* **Claude 2** launching in July 2023\n* **Claude 3** launching in March 2024\n\nGiven this timeline, a successor, Claude 4, could be expected in 2025. However, Anthropic’s development cycle and external factors such as **advances in AI safety, regulatory changes, or strategic business decisions** may impact the release schedule.\n\nForecasters should track Anthropic’s blog, official partnerships (e.g., with Amazon, Google, or OpenAI competitors), major AI conferences, and regulatory filings for indications of an impending release.", "created_at": "2025-03-10T23:24:13.955927Z", "open_time": "2025-03-15T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-15T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to **\"Yes\"** if Anthropic publicly releases a model explicitly named **Claude 4** before **May 15, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET**.\n\n* A **public release** is defined as Claude 4 being made available for commercial, enterprise, or general public use through Anthropic’s platform, an API, or any widely accessible service (e.g., via Anthropic’s website, Amazon Bedrock, or an official partner).\n* Any variation on **Claude 4** such as **Claude 4 - Sonnet, Claude 4 - Preview, or Claude 4.x** is sufficient to resolve **Yes.\"**\n* If Anthropic announces or previews Claude 4 but does not release it for public or commercial use before the deadline, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**\n* If Anthropic releases an intermediate Claude model (e.g., \"Claude 3.5\" or \"Claude 3 Ultra\") but does not label it as **Claude 4**, this will not be sufficient for a **\"Yes\"** resolution.\n* If there is ambiguity regarding the official name or release status, authoritative sources such as **Anthropic’s blog, press releases, official documentation, or statements from executives** will be used for verification.\n\nIf no clear confirmation is available by the deadline, the question will resolve **\"No.\"**", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Claude is Anthropic's series of AI language models, competing with OpenAI’s GPT and Google DeepMind’s Gemini models. The company has adopted a structured release strategy, with:\n\n* **Claude 1** launching in March 2023\n* **Claude 2** launching in July 2023\n* **Claude 3** launching in March 2024\n\nGiven this timeline, a successor, Claude 4, could be expected in 2025. However, Anthropic’s development cycle and external factors such as **advances in AI safety, regulatory changes, or strategic business decisions** may impact the release schedule.\n\nForecasters should track Anthropic’s blog, official partnerships (e.g., with Amazon, Google, or OpenAI competitors), major AI conferences, and regulatory filings for indications of an impending release." }, { "id": 35974, "title": "Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?", "url_title": "Will UK join the convention 2028?", "slug": "will-uk-join-the-convention-2028", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:35.955649Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:38.655684Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:38.655678Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35405, "title": "Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?", "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?*\n\n\n\nThe UK [<u>left the European Union's single market on December 31, 2020,</u>](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/216/the-united-kingdom) under the terms of the [<u>UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en) and the [<u>UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en). Since then, there have been ongoing discussions about improving trade relations between the UK and EU.\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention</u>](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/international-affairs/pan-euro-mediterranean-cumulation-and-pem-convention_en), established in 2012, aims to facilitate trade among its [<u>25 member countries across Europe and North Africa by harmonizing rules of origin</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/what-is-the-pan-europe-customs-area-pem?utm_source=chatgpt.com). This harmonization allows for more straightforward movement of goods within the zone, benefiting industries with intricate supply chains.\n\n\n\nIn January 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič suggested that [<u>the EU could consider the UK's inclusion in the PEM Convention</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/eu-uk-europe-trade-deal-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention?utm_source=chatgpt.com) as part of a broader \"reset\" in EU-UK relations. However, the UK government's response has been cautious. Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook stated that the [<u>UK is \"not seeking to participate in that particular arrangement at the present time,</u>](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-not-seeking-to-join-europe-trade-pact-minister-insists/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)” emphasizing a desire for closer relations with European partners without committing to the PEM. \n\n\n\nThe proposal has elicited mixed reactions within the UK. Some [<u>business groups advocate for joining the PEM</u>](https://chamberuk.com/uk-eu-trade-relations-pem/) to streamline supply chains and reduce trade barriers. Conversely, certain political figures and commentators express concerns that such a move could be perceived as [<u>undermining the UK's post-Brexit autonomy</u>](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/27/exploring-the-prospect-of-the-uk-joining-the-pan-euro-mediterranean-customs-convention/). Notably, Lord Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, [<u>argued that joining the PEM would not compromise Brexit freedoms</u>](https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-uk-join-eu-customs-deal-lord-frost-concerns), suggesting that the convention's impact might be more symbolic than substantial. \n\n\n\n\nWhile joining the PEM Convention could offer economic advantages and improve trade relations with the EU, the UK government's current cautious stance and political considerations contribute to the uncertainty surrounding this potential policy shift.", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:05:35.956036Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, by December 31, 2028, the United Kingdom has officially joined the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention (PEM Convention). This will be considered fulfilled if the UK is listed as a contracting party in official EU or UK government documents, or if credible news sources confirm that the UK has formally acceded to the convention through a signed agreement.\n\nThe question will resolve as **\"No\"** if, by the resolution deadline, the UK has not joined the PEM Convention. This includes scenarios where negotiations are ongoing but no formal accession has been completed, or if the UK explicitly rejects or withdraws from the process.\n\nIf there is no clear confirmation of accession or non-accession by the deadline, the resolution will be based on the best available reporting from credible news sources and official government statements.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35974, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?*\n\n\n\nThe UK [<u>left the European Union's single market on December 31, 2020,</u>](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/sheet/216/the-united-kingdom) under the terms of the [<u>UK-EU Withdrawal Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-withdrawal-agreement_en) and the [<u>UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement</u>](https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/relations-united-kingdom/eu-uk-trade-and-cooperation-agreement_en). Since then, there have been ongoing discussions about improving trade relations between the UK and EU.\n\n\n\nThe [<u>Pan-Euro-Mediterranean (PEM) Convention</u>](https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/customs-4/international-affairs/pan-euro-mediterranean-cumulation-and-pem-convention_en), established in 2012, aims to facilitate trade among its [<u>25 member countries across Europe and North Africa by harmonizing rules of origin</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/what-is-the-pan-europe-customs-area-pem?utm_source=chatgpt.com). This harmonization allows for more straightforward movement of goods within the zone, benefiting industries with intricate supply chains.\n\n\n\nIn January 2025, EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič suggested that [<u>the EU could consider the UK's inclusion in the PEM Convention</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/jan/23/eu-uk-europe-trade-deal-pan-euro-mediterranean-convention?utm_source=chatgpt.com) as part of a broader \"reset\" in EU-UK relations. However, the UK government's response has been cautious. Housing Minister Matthew Pennycook stated that the [<u>UK is \"not seeking to participate in that particular arrangement at the present time,</u>](https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-not-seeking-to-join-europe-trade-pact-minister-insists/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)” emphasizing a desire for closer relations with European partners without committing to the PEM. \n\n\n\nThe proposal has elicited mixed reactions within the UK. Some [<u>business groups advocate for joining the PEM</u>](https://chamberuk.com/uk-eu-trade-relations-pem/) to streamline supply chains and reduce trade barriers. Conversely, certain political figures and commentators express concerns that such a move could be perceived as [<u>undermining the UK's post-Brexit autonomy</u>](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/01/27/exploring-the-prospect-of-the-uk-joining-the-pan-euro-mediterranean-customs-convention/). Notably, Lord Frost, the UK's former chief Brexit negotiator, [<u>argued that joining the PEM would not compromise Brexit freedoms</u>](https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-uk-join-eu-customs-deal-lord-frost-concerns), suggesting that the convention's impact might be more symbolic than substantial. \n\n\n\n\nWhile joining the PEM Convention could offer economic advantages and improve trade relations with the EU, the UK government's current cautious stance and political considerations contribute to the uncertainty surrounding this potential policy shift." }, { "id": 35973, "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?", "url_title": "Israel and Saudi Arabia relation normalized by 2029?", "slug": "israel-and-saudi-arabia-relation-normalized-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:38.209007Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:40.213331Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:40.213326Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35404, "title": "Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?", "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?\n\n\n\nHistorically, the relationship between the State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - like Israel’s relations with other majority Arab Muslim countries in the region - has been characterized by conflict and tension. Notably, the two countries, to date, have never had any formal diplomatic relations. \n\n\n\nSaudi Arabia’s rejection of Israel dates back to 1947 when the Kingdom, along with other Middle Eastern nations, voted against the [<u>United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine</u>](https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/159/un-partition-plan-29-november-1947) and the creation of a Jewish state it proposed. Following Israel’s independence in 1948, Saudi Arabia was one of several Arab states to send troops to fight Israel in the [<u>First Arab–Israeli War</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_War) and would again deploy forces as part of an Arab coalition in the [<u>Yom Kippur War</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973) in 1973. Saudi Arabia also rejected the [<u>Camp David Accords</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords) in 1978, which sought to establish frameworks for peace in the Middle East and between Israel and Egypt - and cut ties with Egypt for its involvement. \n\n\n\nRelations between the two countries, however, have begun to thaw. While [<u>clandestine cooperation dates back to the North Yemen Civil War</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-understand-israel-and-saudi-arabias-secretive-relationship/), when both countries supported the Royalists against the USSR-backed Republicans, diplomatic ties have grown significantly in the 21st Century. This is evidenced by the discussion around normalizing relations, the process whereby formal diplomatic relations are established. Normalization was proposed as early as 2002 in the [<u>Arab Peace Initiative</u>](https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5dab26d-a2fe-dc66-8910-a13730828279\\&groupId=268421), a plan put forward by Saudi Arabia whereby the Arab states would recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the plan was rejected, the offer signaled a shift in Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations.\n\n\n\nNormalization efforts have since coalesced around the [<u>Abraham Accords</u>](https://www.ajc.org/abrahamaccordsexplained), a series of bilateral normalization agreements mediated by the United States. Since they were first signed in 2020, the Abraham Accords have grown to encompass Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. There have been talks to expand the treaties to include Saudi Arabia, and a normalization deal was [<u>thought to have been imminent in 2023 if it were not for the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Israeli-Saudi-peace-deal#ref360825) Despite being derailed, Saudi Arabian officials have reiterated their interest in a normalization deal following the announcement of a ceasefire, with [<u>the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, telling the BBC that such an agreement would be contingent on establishing a Palestinian state. </u>](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-781454)\n\n\n\nTherefore, with a ceasefire in Gaza and the new Trump administration reportedly keen to build upon the progress towards normalization it made during its first iteration, there is the possibility - should reconstruction efforts in Gaza and steps towards Palestinian statehood meet Saudi Arabia’s demands - that the elusive Israel-Saudi Arabia deal could be struck in Donald Trump’s second presidency. ", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:03:38.209606Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **\"Yes\"** if Israel and Saudi Arabia establish formal diplomatic relations during Donald Trump's second presidency.\n\nFor this resolution, the following criteria must be met:\n\n* An official agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia must be publicly announced by both governments.\n* The agreement must explicitly include formal diplomatic recognition between the two countries.\n* This recognition should lead to at least one of the following:\n * The exchange of ambassadors or the establishment of embassies in each other's capitals.\n * The signing of a bilateral treaty or agreement explicitly recognizing diplomatic relations.\n * Public statements from both the Israeli and Saudi governments confirming normalization.\n\nThe question will be resolved as **\"No\"** if:\n\n* No formal diplomatic recognition occurs during Donald Trump's second presidency.\n* Any unofficial or informal cooperation (such as security coordination or trade agreements) does not meet the threshold of formal diplomatic relations as defined above.\n* There are discussions or negotiations but no finalized agreement.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35973, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations during Donald Trump's second presidency?\n\n\n\nHistorically, the relationship between the State of Israel and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - like Israel’s relations with other majority Arab Muslim countries in the region - has been characterized by conflict and tension. Notably, the two countries, to date, have never had any formal diplomatic relations. \n\n\n\nSaudi Arabia’s rejection of Israel dates back to 1947 when the Kingdom, along with other Middle Eastern nations, voted against the [<u>United Nations Partition Plan for Palestine</u>](https://www.palquest.org/en/highlight/159/un-partition-plan-29-november-1947) and the creation of a Jewish state it proposed. Following Israel’s independence in 1948, Saudi Arabia was one of several Arab states to send troops to fight Israel in the [<u>First Arab–Israeli War</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Arab%E2%80%93Israeli_War) and would again deploy forces as part of an Arab coalition in the [<u>Yom Kippur War</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/arab-israeli-war-1973) in 1973. Saudi Arabia also rejected the [<u>Camp David Accords</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Camp-David-Accords) in 1978, which sought to establish frameworks for peace in the Middle East and between Israel and Egypt - and cut ties with Egypt for its involvement. \n\n\n\nRelations between the two countries, however, have begun to thaw. While [<u>clandestine cooperation dates back to the North Yemen Civil War</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-to-understand-israel-and-saudi-arabias-secretive-relationship/), when both countries supported the Royalists against the USSR-backed Republicans, diplomatic ties have grown significantly in the 21st Century. This is evidenced by the discussion around normalizing relations, the process whereby formal diplomatic relations are established. Normalization was proposed as early as 2002 in the [<u>Arab Peace Initiative</u>](https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=a5dab26d-a2fe-dc66-8910-a13730828279\\&groupId=268421), a plan put forward by Saudi Arabia whereby the Arab states would recognize Israel in exchange for an independent Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. While the plan was rejected, the offer signaled a shift in Saudi Arabian-Israeli relations.\n\n\n\nNormalization efforts have since coalesced around the [<u>Abraham Accords</u>](https://www.ajc.org/abrahamaccordsexplained), a series of bilateral normalization agreements mediated by the United States. Since they were first signed in 2020, the Abraham Accords have grown to encompass Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan. There have been talks to expand the treaties to include Saudi Arabia, and a normalization deal was [<u>thought to have been imminent in 2023 if it were not for the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war.</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/Israeli-Saudi-peace-deal#ref360825) Despite being derailed, Saudi Arabian officials have reiterated their interest in a normalization deal following the announcement of a ceasefire, with [<u>the Saudi ambassador to the UK, Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, telling the BBC that such an agreement would be contingent on establishing a Palestinian state. </u>](https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-781454)\n\n\n\nTherefore, with a ceasefire in Gaza and the new Trump administration reportedly keen to build upon the progress towards normalization it made during its first iteration, there is the possibility - should reconstruction efforts in Gaza and steps towards Palestinian statehood meet Saudi Arabia’s demands - that the elusive Israel-Saudi Arabia deal could be struck in Donald Trump’s second presidency. " }, { "id": 35972, "title": "Will the US take over Gaza by Jan. 20, 2029?", "url_title": "US Gaza take over by 2029?", "slug": "us-gaza-take-over-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:01:40.738835Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-10T20:01:42.913563Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T20:01:42.913559Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35403, "title": "Will the US take over Gaza by Jan. 20, 2029?", "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US take over Gaza?*\n\n\n\nOn February 5, 2025, during a [<u>press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-netanyahu-press-conference-ceasefire-hostages/), President Trump announced a plan for the US to take control of Gaza. Key points of Trump's proposal include:\n\n* The US would [<u>\"take over\" and \"own\" Gaza,</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/5/trump-says-us-will-take-over-and-own-gaza-in-redevelopment-plan) managing its reconstruction and development.\n* Palestinians would be relocated to other countries with [<u>\"humanitarian hearts,\"</u>](https://whyy.org/articles/trump-gaza-takeover/) such as[<u> Egypt and Jordan</u>](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/01/26/trump-proposes-relocating-palestinians-of-gaza-to-egypt-and-jordan_6737436_4.html).\n* Gaza would be transformed into [<u>\"the Riviera of the Middle East,\"</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/5/trump-says-us-will-take-over-and-own-gaza-in-redevelopment-plan) potentially becoming an international destination.\n* Trump suggested that this transformation could take 10 to 15 years and [<u>did not rule out deploying American troops to support the reconstruction efforts.</u>](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/02/04/trump-wont-rule-out-deploying-us-troops-support-rebuilding-gaza-sees-long-term-us-ownership.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n\n\nThe proposal has sparked significant debate and controversy. Critics argue that forcibly relocating Gaza's population could constitute [<u>\"ethnic cleansing\" and violate international law</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-official-says-trumps-remarks-about-taking-over-gaza-are-could-ignite-2025-02-05/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). Neighboring Arab nations, including Egypt and Jordan, have [<u>expressed strong opposition to resettling displaced Palestinians within their borders,</u>](https://apnews.com/article/mideast-egypt-jordan-palestinians-trump-51dc4d5225e6bc0a135b7bbafedb3d86) citing concerns over regional stability and the undermining of long-standing efforts toward a two-state solution. \n\n\n\nUN experts have also condemned the plan, stating that it would [<u>violate fundamental rules of international law and the UN Charter.</u>](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/02/us-proposal-take-over-gaza-would-shatter-fundamental-rules-international) They argue that it is illegal to invade and annex foreign territory by force and forcibly deport its population.\n\nWithin the United States, [<u>reactions are mixed</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americas-annexation-of-gaza-wont-happen/). Some policymakers and analysts view the plan as a bold, innovative approach to a protracted conflict, while others raise concerns about the legal, ethical, and practical implications of such an undertaking. The financial burden of reconstructing Gaza is also a point of contention, with[<u> estimates suggesting costs could range from \\$30 billion to \\$80 billion</u>](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/challenges-us-would-face-gaza/681602/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). With strong opposition from multiple sides, the feasibility of such a plan remains highly uncertain.", "created_at": "2025-03-10T20:01:40.739256Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, by January 20, 2029, the United States government has established full military or administrative control over Gaza. This includes scenarios where the U.S. formally declares sovereignty over Gaza, establishes a military occupation recognized by credible international organizations or governments, or assumes direct governance over the territory.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"**No**\" if, by the resolution deadline, the United States has not taken full control of Gaza. This includes outcomes where the U.S. provides military aid, deploys troops, conducts operations, or influences governance without directly assuming control over the territory.\n\nIf there is no clear determination of U.S. control by the deadline, the resolution will be based on the best available reporting from credible news sources and official government statements.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35972, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the US take over Gaza?*\n\n\n\nOn February 5, 2025, during a [<u>press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-netanyahu-press-conference-ceasefire-hostages/), President Trump announced a plan for the US to take control of Gaza. Key points of Trump's proposal include:\n\n* The US would [<u>\"take over\" and \"own\" Gaza,</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/5/trump-says-us-will-take-over-and-own-gaza-in-redevelopment-plan) managing its reconstruction and development.\n* Palestinians would be relocated to other countries with [<u>\"humanitarian hearts,\"</u>](https://whyy.org/articles/trump-gaza-takeover/) such as[<u> Egypt and Jordan</u>](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/01/26/trump-proposes-relocating-palestinians-of-gaza-to-egypt-and-jordan_6737436_4.html).\n* Gaza would be transformed into [<u>\"the Riviera of the Middle East,\"</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/2/5/trump-says-us-will-take-over-and-own-gaza-in-redevelopment-plan) potentially becoming an international destination.\n* Trump suggested that this transformation could take 10 to 15 years and [<u>did not rule out deploying American troops to support the reconstruction efforts.</u>](https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/02/04/trump-wont-rule-out-deploying-us-troops-support-rebuilding-gaza-sees-long-term-us-ownership.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n\n\nThe proposal has sparked significant debate and controversy. Critics argue that forcibly relocating Gaza's population could constitute [<u>\"ethnic cleansing\" and violate international law</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-official-says-trumps-remarks-about-taking-over-gaza-are-could-ignite-2025-02-05/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). Neighboring Arab nations, including Egypt and Jordan, have [<u>expressed strong opposition to resettling displaced Palestinians within their borders,</u>](https://apnews.com/article/mideast-egypt-jordan-palestinians-trump-51dc4d5225e6bc0a135b7bbafedb3d86) citing concerns over regional stability and the undermining of long-standing efforts toward a two-state solution. \n\n\n\nUN experts have also condemned the plan, stating that it would [<u>violate fundamental rules of international law and the UN Charter.</u>](https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2025/02/us-proposal-take-over-gaza-would-shatter-fundamental-rules-international) They argue that it is illegal to invade and annex foreign territory by force and forcibly deport its population.\n\nWithin the United States, [<u>reactions are mixed</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americas-annexation-of-gaza-wont-happen/). Some policymakers and analysts view the plan as a bold, innovative approach to a protracted conflict, while others raise concerns about the legal, ethical, and practical implications of such an undertaking. The financial burden of reconstructing Gaza is also a point of contention, with[<u> estimates suggesting costs could range from \\$30 billion to \\$80 billion</u>](https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/02/challenges-us-would-face-gaza/681602/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). With strong opposition from multiple sides, the feasibility of such a plan remains highly uncertain." }, { "id": 35971, "title": "Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll by January 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Will trump pay judgement 2029?", "slug": "will-trump-pay-judgement-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:10.242199Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:12.400522Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:12.400515Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35402, "title": "Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll by January 20, 2029?", "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll?\n\n\n\nIn May 2023, a [<u>jury found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll, awarding her \\$5 million in damages</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/carroll-trump-jury-deliberations/index.html). In January 2024, a [<u>second jury awarded Carroll an additional \\$83.3 million for defamation</u>](https://apnews.com/article/trump-carroll-defamation-trial-e4ea8b93cdeb29857864ffd8d14be888), bringing the total to \\$88.3 million. The court rejected Trump's arguments that the trial was unfair due to the admission of evidence about his past conduct, including the \"Access Hollywood\" video. The verdict stemmed from a [<u>1996 incident in which Carroll alleged that Trump assaulted her in a Manhattan department store</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\n\n\nDespite the legal setbacks, Trump has continued to deny the allegations, [<u>referring to the case as a \"hoax\" and criticizing the judicial process</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). On March 8, 2024, [<u>Trump posted a \\$91.63 million bond to appeal the \\$83 million judgment</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). This bond is 110% of the judgment amount, as required to stay enforcement during the appeal process. Trump's legal team has filed an[<u> appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). \n\n\n\nAs of February 25, 2025, Donald Trump has not paid E. Jean Carroll any of the damages awarded to her in the defamation cases. Instead, he has taken several actions to challenge and delay the payments:\n\n* Trump has posted [<u>bonds for both judgments</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/), which means he has paid money into a court-controlled account rather than directly to Carroll.\n* He posted a [<u>\\$5.5 million bond for the first \\$5 million judgment and a \\$91.6 million bond for the second \\$83.3 million judgment</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/).\n\nTrump has filed [<u>appeals against both verdicts</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/30/appeals-court-upholds-trump-sexual-abuse-defamation-liability-verdict). The appeals process is ongoing, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hearing arguments.", "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:59:10.242841Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, by January 20, 2029, Donald Trump has paid the full amount of the settlement awarded to E. Jean Carroll by a court judgment. Payment will be considered made if credible news sources confirm that Trump has either directly paid Carroll or that the funds have been collected through legal means, such as asset seizures or garnishments.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"**No**\" if, by the resolution deadline, Trump has not fully paid the settlement. This includes scenarios where he has made partial payments but still owes a remaining balance, if the judgment is overturned or vacated on appeal, or if the settlement is otherwise rendered legally unenforceable.\n\nIf there is no clear confirmation of full payment or non-payment by the deadline, the resolution will be based on the best available reporting from credible news sources and official court records.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35971, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Donald Trump pay his settlement to E. Jean Carroll?\n\n\n\nIn May 2023, a [<u>jury found Donald Trump liable for sexual abuse and defamation against journalist E. Jean Carroll, awarding her \\$5 million in damages</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/09/politics/carroll-trump-jury-deliberations/index.html). In January 2024, a [<u>second jury awarded Carroll an additional \\$83.3 million for defamation</u>](https://apnews.com/article/trump-carroll-defamation-trial-e4ea8b93cdeb29857864ffd8d14be888), bringing the total to \\$88.3 million. The court rejected Trump's arguments that the trial was unfair due to the admission of evidence about his past conduct, including the \"Access Hollywood\" video. The verdict stemmed from a [<u>1996 incident in which Carroll alleged that Trump assaulted her in a Manhattan department store</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com).\n\n\n\nDespite the legal setbacks, Trump has continued to deny the allegations, [<u>referring to the case as a \"hoax\" and criticizing the judicial process</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/trump-loses-appeal-e-jean-carroll-5-million-defamation-verdict-2024-12-30/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). On March 8, 2024, [<u>Trump posted a \\$91.63 million bond to appeal the \\$83 million judgment</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). This bond is 110% of the judgment amount, as required to stay enforcement during the appeal process. Trump's legal team has filed an[<u> appeal with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-posts-bond-e-jean-carroll-case-91-million/). \n\n\n\nAs of February 25, 2025, Donald Trump has not paid E. Jean Carroll any of the damages awarded to her in the defamation cases. Instead, he has taken several actions to challenge and delay the payments:\n\n* Trump has posted [<u>bonds for both judgments</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/), which means he has paid money into a court-controlled account rather than directly to Carroll.\n* He posted a [<u>\\$5.5 million bond for the first \\$5 million judgment and a \\$91.6 million bond for the second \\$83.3 million judgment</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2024/09/06/trump-now-owes-e-jean-carroll-over-90-million-with-interest-as-appeals-court-hears-first-case/).\n\nTrump has filed [<u>appeals against both verdicts</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/30/appeals-court-upholds-trump-sexual-abuse-defamation-liability-verdict). The appeals process is ongoing, with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit hearing arguments." }, { "id": 35970, "title": "Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal by 20 January 2029?", "url_title": "US/Panama Canal take over by 2029", "slug": "uspanama-canal-take-over-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:55:54.434269Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-10T19:55:59.085321Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-10T19:55:59.085315Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35401, "title": "Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal by 20 January 2029?", "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal?\n\n\n\n\n[<u>The Panama Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canal) is an artificial waterway which cuts across Panama, a country in Latin America, and connects the Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean Sea. The canal drastically reduces the travel time required for shipping to cross between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is an important maritime conduit. In this way, the Panama Canal is a New World equivalent to the [<u>Suez Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) in Egypt, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, with both canals sharing the same originator, Ferdinand de Lesseps. \n\n\n\nWhile de Lesseps and the French failed to successfully develop the waterway, the United States, under President Theodore Roosevelt, secured the rights to the future Panama Canal Zone by strategically supporting Panama's independence from Colombia and signing the [<u>Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Hay-Bunau-Varilla-Treaty) with the fledgling country in 1903. The agreement gave the United States governance rights over the canal as well as the assets and shares of the [*<u>Compagnie Nouvelle du Canal de Panama</u>*](https://pancanal.com/en/the-french-canal-construction/)** - the French company established in 1894 to take over efforts to complete the canal. American construction began in 1904 and lasted ten years, with the canal [<u>formally opening on 15 August 1914</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-open-to-traffic). [<u>The immensity of the effort meant it was the largest engineering project the United States had undertaken to date</u>](https://pancanal.com/en/end-of-the-construction/#:~:text=Observing%20the%20transit%20from%20shore,States%20history%20to%20that%20time.).\n\n\n\nThe United States continued to exercise sole control over the Panama Canal Zone until 1977 when President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Torrijos negotiated the [<u>Torrijos–Carter Treaties</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/panama-canal). The settlement superseded the 1903 agreements and guaranteed that Panama would gain full control of the canal from 31 December 1999. In the meantime, [<u>joint US-Panama control was established</u>](https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/treasures_of_congress/text/page25_text.html#:~:text=The%20first%2C%20the%20Permanent%20Neutrality,Panama%20would%20take%20full%20control.) over the waterway. Despite tense relations between the two countries towards the end of the 1980s, when President George H. W. Bush authorized the [<u>invasion of Panama in 1989</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-invasion-of-Panama) to overthrow dictator Manuel Noriega, the canal was [<u>formally handed over on 31 December 1999</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-turned-over-to-panama).\n\n\nIn recent times, however, the consensus over the canal has been broken. Following his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the 1977 agreements with Panama and the country’s control over the canal. During his inaugural address in Washington DC, the President stated that the canal’s handover was a [<u>“foolish gift that should have never been made”, and claimed that China was influencing the canal’s operation</u>](https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-says-us-taking-back-panama-canal-but-panamas-president-has-defiant-message-13293275), contrary to the terms of the Torrijos–Carter Treaties. In addition, Trump has spoken of his intent to return the canal to US ownership, telling reporters on 2 February 2025 that, [<u>“we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen”</u>](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/02/americas/panama-china-belt-and-road-initiative-rubio-visits-intl-latam/index.html) to Panama. ", "created_at": "2025-03-10T19:55:54.434677Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, by **January 20, 2029, 11:59 PM ET**, the United States has officially taken control of the Panama Canal through any of the following means:\n\n1. **Formal Government Action** – The U.S. government, through legislation, executive order, or official treaty, establishes control over the Panama Canal, superseding the 1977 Torrijos-Carter Treaties.\n2. **Military Occupation or Seizure** – The U.S. military enters and takes de facto control over the canal, its operations, or surrounding territory, regardless of international recognition.\n3. **Negotiated Transfer** – Panama formally agrees to transfer control of the canal to the United States through a signed and implemented agreement.\n4. **Third-Party Confirmation** – Credible sources, such as official U.S. government statements, Panamanian government statements, or reputable media outlets (e.g., The New York Times, BBC, Reuters, The Associated Press), confirm that the United States is exercising control over the canal’s operations, security, or governance.\n\nThe question will resolve as **\"No\"** if none of the above criteria are met by the resolution date, i.e., January 20, 2029", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35970, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the United States take control of the Panama Canal?\n\n\n\n\n[<u>The Panama Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panama_Canal) is an artificial waterway which cuts across Panama, a country in Latin America, and connects the Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean Sea. The canal drastically reduces the travel time required for shipping to cross between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and is an important maritime conduit. In this way, the Panama Canal is a New World equivalent to the [<u>Suez Canal</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suez_Canal) in Egypt, which connects the Mediterranean to the Red Sea, with both canals sharing the same originator, Ferdinand de Lesseps. \n\n\n\nWhile de Lesseps and the French failed to successfully develop the waterway, the United States, under President Theodore Roosevelt, secured the rights to the future Panama Canal Zone by strategically supporting Panama's independence from Colombia and signing the [<u>Hay-Bunau-Varilla Treaty</u>](https://www.britannica.com/event/Hay-Bunau-Varilla-Treaty) with the fledgling country in 1903. The agreement gave the United States governance rights over the canal as well as the assets and shares of the [*<u>Compagnie Nouvelle du Canal de Panama</u>*](https://pancanal.com/en/the-french-canal-construction/)** - the French company established in 1894 to take over efforts to complete the canal. American construction began in 1904 and lasted ten years, with the canal [<u>formally opening on 15 August 1914</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-open-to-traffic). [<u>The immensity of the effort meant it was the largest engineering project the United States had undertaken to date</u>](https://pancanal.com/en/end-of-the-construction/#:~:text=Observing%20the%20transit%20from%20shore,States%20history%20to%20that%20time.).\n\n\n\nThe United States continued to exercise sole control over the Panama Canal Zone until 1977 when President Jimmy Carter and Panamanian leader Omar Torrijos negotiated the [<u>Torrijos–Carter Treaties</u>](https://history.state.gov/milestones/1977-1980/panama-canal). The settlement superseded the 1903 agreements and guaranteed that Panama would gain full control of the canal from 31 December 1999. In the meantime, [<u>joint US-Panama control was established</u>](https://www.archives.gov/exhibits/treasures_of_congress/text/page25_text.html#:~:text=The%20first%2C%20the%20Permanent%20Neutrality,Panama%20would%20take%20full%20control.) over the waterway. Despite tense relations between the two countries towards the end of the 1980s, when President George H. W. Bush authorized the [<u>invasion of Panama in 1989</u>](https://www.britannica.com/topic/United-States-invasion-of-Panama) to overthrow dictator Manuel Noriega, the canal was [<u>formally handed over on 31 December 1999</u>](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/panama-canal-turned-over-to-panama).\n\n\nIn recent times, however, the consensus over the canal has been broken. Following his election in November 2024, President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the 1977 agreements with Panama and the country’s control over the canal. During his inaugural address in Washington DC, the President stated that the canal’s handover was a [<u>“foolish gift that should have never been made”, and claimed that China was influencing the canal’s operation</u>](https://news.sky.com/story/donald-trump-says-us-taking-back-panama-canal-but-panamas-president-has-defiant-message-13293275), contrary to the terms of the Torrijos–Carter Treaties. In addition, Trump has spoken of his intent to return the canal to US ownership, telling reporters on 2 February 2025 that, [<u>“we’re going to take it back, or something very powerful is going to happen”</u>](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/02/americas/panama-china-belt-and-road-initiative-rubio-visits-intl-latam/index.html) to Panama. " }, { "id": 35968, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-lift-the-blockade-to-humanitarian-aid-into-gaza-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.465699Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T17:00:00.242502Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35399, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict.", "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.465699Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, humanitarian aid into Gaza has resumed, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": 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"user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict." }, { "id": 35966, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pepfar-funding-be-resumed-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.387102Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T17:00:00.275846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35397, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed.", "created_at": "2025-03-10T14:59:36.387102Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that funding for the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is frozen ([NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-hiv-aids-pepfar.html), [JIAS](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11851316/), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/05/congress/graham-warns-trumps-budget-pick-about-going-too-far-with-funding-freeze-00213662)) at the time of this question, has resumed. If a partial resumption takes place, this question will resolve as **Yes** PEPFAR's funding levels are at least 50% of pre-pause funding.", "fine_print": "An announcement that funding *will* resume will only resolve this question if the date of the resumption is before April 7, 2025 and no credible sources as of that date suggest that funding remains paused. 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"user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed." }, { "id": 35929, "title": "Will Doge claim a total savings of $150 billion or more on April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "doge claim savings 150 billion?", "slug": "doge-claim-savings-150-billion", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.939960Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.786471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": 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