Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
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It's ticker is ADM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:20) is 58.63. You can find more information about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADM\n\nArcher-Daniels-Midland Company engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company originates, merchandises, stores, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds and soft seeds. It engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and various structured trade finance activities. In addition, the company offers soybean meal and oil; vegetable and salad oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, it provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; corn germ; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides proteins, natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and food products. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouse; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ADM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ADM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40831, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764148686.990647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764148686.990647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5187922344322342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 5.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 5.0, 6.0, 8.0, 10.0, 7.0, 20.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ADM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:20) is 58.63. You can find more information about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADM\n\nArcher-Daniels-Midland Company engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company originates, merchandises, stores, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds and soft seeds. It engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and various structured trade finance activities. In addition, the company offers soybean meal and oil; vegetable and salad oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, it provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; corn germ; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides proteins, natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and food products. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouse; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ADM\"}}`" }, { "id": 40826, "title": "Will DOV's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "url_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "slug": "dovs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.226507Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:08:00.373594Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.511227Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40485, "title": "Will DOV's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.227202Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dover Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:40) is 183.58. You can find more information about Dover Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOV\n\nDover Corporation provides equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company's Engineered Products segment provides various equipment, component, software, solution, and services that are used in vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, and fluid dispensing end-market. This segment offers software solutions and services used in light and heavy-duty vehicle lifts, wheel service equipment, vehicle diagnostics, and vehicle collision repair solutions; winches, hoists, bearings, drives, and electric monitoring system; and radio frequency and microwave filters and switches, and signal intelligence solutions, as well as soldering and fluid dispensing solutions. Its Clean Energy & Fueling segment offers component, equipment, and software and service solution enabling safe storage and transport of fuel, cryogenic gases, and hazardous fluids, as well as operation of retail fueling and vehicle wash establishment. The company's Imaging & Identification segment provides precision marking and coding, product traceability equipment, brand protection, and digital textile printing equipment and solution, as well as consumable, software, and service to packaged and consumer goods, pharmaceutical, industrial manufacturing, textile, and other end-market. Its Pumps & Process Solutions segment manufactures specialty pump, connector, flow meter, fluid connecting solution, plastics and polymer processing equipment, and engineered components for rotating and reciprocating machines. The company's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment manufactures refrigeration system, refrigeration display case, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer door, and brazed plate heat exchanger for industrial heating and cooling, and residential climate control applications. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DOV. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40826, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764113661.698648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764113661.698648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5519507692307691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 9.0, 18.0, 9.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dover Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:40) is 183.58. You can find more information about Dover Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOV\n\nDover Corporation provides equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company's Engineered Products segment provides various equipment, component, software, solution, and services that are used in vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, and fluid dispensing end-market. This segment offers software solutions and services used in light and heavy-duty vehicle lifts, wheel service equipment, vehicle diagnostics, and vehicle collision repair solutions; winches, hoists, bearings, drives, and electric monitoring system; and radio frequency and microwave filters and switches, and signal intelligence solutions, as well as soldering and fluid dispensing solutions. Its Clean Energy & Fueling segment offers component, equipment, and software and service solution enabling safe storage and transport of fuel, cryogenic gases, and hazardous fluids, as well as operation of retail fueling and vehicle wash establishment. The company's Imaging & Identification segment provides precision marking and coding, product traceability equipment, brand protection, and digital textile printing equipment and solution, as well as consumable, software, and service to packaged and consumer goods, pharmaceutical, industrial manufacturing, textile, and other end-market. Its Pumps & Process Solutions segment manufactures specialty pump, connector, flow meter, fluid connecting solution, plastics and polymer processing equipment, and engineered components for rotating and reciprocating machines. The company's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment manufactures refrigeration system, refrigeration display case, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer door, and brazed plate heat exchanger for industrial heating and cooling, and residential climate control applications. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOV\"}}`" }, { "id": 40825, "title": "Will D's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "short_title": "D's close price rises?", "url_title": "D's close price rises?", "slug": "ds-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.528896Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T21:32:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T23:03:00.262358Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.797945Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T10:46:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T21:32:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40484, "title": "Will D's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.529405Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T21:32:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T10:46:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dominion Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is D. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:21) is 61.47. You can find more information about Dominion Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/D\n\nDominion Energy, Inc. provides regulated electricity and natural gas services in the United States. It operates through Dominion Energy Virginia, Dominion Energy South Carolina, and Contracted Energy segments. The Dominion Energy Virginia segment engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity to approximately 2.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers in Virginia and North Carolina. The Dominion Energy South Carolina segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.8 million customers in the central, southern, and southwestern portions of South Carolina; and distributes natural gas to approximately 0.5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in South Carolina. The Contracted Energy segment is involved in the nonregulated long-term contracted renewable electric generation fleet and renewable natural gas facility. As of December 31, 2024, the company's portfolio of assets included approximately 30.3 GW of electric generating capacity, 10,600 miles of electric transmission lines, and 79,700 miles of electric distribution lines. The company was formerly known as Dominion Resources, Inc. Dominion Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"D\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of D. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40825, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764109797.173684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764109797.173684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5114458241758242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 4.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 17.0, 3.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dominion Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is D. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:21) is 61.47. You can find more information about Dominion Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/D\n\nDominion Energy, Inc. provides regulated electricity and natural gas services in the United States. It operates through Dominion Energy Virginia, Dominion Energy South Carolina, and Contracted Energy segments. The Dominion Energy Virginia segment engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity to approximately 2.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers in Virginia and North Carolina. The Dominion Energy South Carolina segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.8 million customers in the central, southern, and southwestern portions of South Carolina; and distributes natural gas to approximately 0.5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in South Carolina. The Contracted Energy segment is involved in the nonregulated long-term contracted renewable electric generation fleet and renewable natural gas facility. As of December 31, 2024, the company's portfolio of assets included approximately 30.3 GW of electric generating capacity, 10,600 miles of electric transmission lines, and 79,700 miles of electric distribution lines. The company was formerly known as Dominion Resources, Inc. Dominion Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"D\"}}`" }, { "id": 40824, "title": "Will HIG's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "short_title": "HIG's close price rises?", "url_title": "HIG's close price rises?", "slug": "higs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.001268Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T17:16:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T18:47:00.185014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.207490Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:10:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T17:16:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40483, "title": "Will HIG's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.001684Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T17:16:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:10:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HIG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:36) is 136.45. You can find more information about The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG\n\nThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Business Insurance segment offers insurance coverages, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Insurance segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channels and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Employee Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and leave management solution. This segment also distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers managed mutual funds across various asset classes; and exchange-traded funds through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers, as well as investment management, distribution, and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HIG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of HIG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40824, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764094699.847798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764094699.847798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5338941111111108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.0, 5.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0, 2.0, 6.0, 18.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HIG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:36) is 136.45. You can find more information about The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG\n\nThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Business Insurance segment offers insurance coverages, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Insurance segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channels and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Employee Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and leave management solution. This segment also distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers managed mutual funds across various asset classes; and exchange-traded funds through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers, as well as investment management, distribution, and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HIG\"}}`" }, { "id": 40823, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.40% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:35.529130Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T13:57:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T15:28:00.295642Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:35.815606Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T03:09:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T13:57:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40482, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.40% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:35.529554Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T13:57:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T03:09:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.054}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 03:09:55 is higher than 5.40%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40823, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764081216.157495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764081216.157495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.29330769230769227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.054}}`" }, { "id": 40820, "title": "Will FE's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "short_title": "FE's close price rises?", "url_title": "FE's close price rises?", "slug": "fes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:34.059192Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T06:44:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T08:15:00.170044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:34.253988Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T04:36:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T06:44:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40479, "title": "Will FE's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:34.059625Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T06:44:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T04:36:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "FirstEnergy Corp. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:38) is 46.89. You can find more information about FirstEnergy Corp. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FE\n\nFirstEnergy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity in the United States. It operates through Distribution, Integrated, and Stand-Alone Transmission segments. The company owns and operates coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, and solar power generating facilities. It operates 252,244 distribution line miles and 24,143 transmission line miles, including overhead pole line and underground conduit carrying primary, secondary, and street lighting circuits. The company serves customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland, and New York. FirstEnergy Corp. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Akron, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FE. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40820, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764054826.131525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764054826.131525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5451962962962963 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 4.0, 8.0, 10.0, 24.0, 4.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "FirstEnergy Corp. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:38) is 46.89. You can find more information about FirstEnergy Corp. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FE\n\nFirstEnergy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity in the United States. It operates through Distribution, Integrated, and Stand-Alone Transmission segments. The company owns and operates coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, and solar power generating facilities. It operates 252,244 distribution line miles and 24,143 transmission line miles, including overhead pole line and underground conduit carrying primary, secondary, and street lighting circuits. The company serves customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland, and New York. FirstEnergy Corp. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Akron, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FE\"}}`" }, { "id": 40819, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-01 for the Metaculus question \"Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-white-house-revoke-media-credentials-for-2-outlets-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.565369Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T05:31:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T07:02:00.178436Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.861328Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:09:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T05:31:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40478, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-01 for the Metaculus question \"Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.565809Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T05:31:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:09:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516\n- Original question title: Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n> \n> \\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n> \n> \\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34516,\"question_id\":34031,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516). If the community prediction on 2025-12-01 15:09:25 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40819, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764052218.063181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764052218.063181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.29231882064998194 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516\n- Original question title: Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n> \n> \\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n> \n> \\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34516,\"question_id\":34031,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40818, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-trump-to-invoke-insurrection-act-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:32.993704Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T03:47:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T05:18:00.225517Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.285423Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T06:49:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T03:47:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40477, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:32.994095Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T03:47:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T06:49:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 06:49:13 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40818, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764044962.087352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764044962.087352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33594652788990803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`" }, { "id": 40814, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-eu-impose-a-dma-fine-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:31.047537Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T22:42:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:52:38.131928Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:31.345828Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T20:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:52:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T22:42:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40473, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:31.047957Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T22:42:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T20:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:52:34.018444Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40406\n- Original question title: Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, the European Commission officially imposes a Digital Markets Act fine against any designated gatekeeper.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Reductions, appeals, or suspensions after the initial announcement will not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Digital Markets Act (DMA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act) is a European Union law that aims to curb anti-competitive behavior by major online platforms designated as gatekeepers; as of October 2025 [these are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act#Identified_gatekeepers) Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance. The DMA took effect during May 2023 and began full enforcement in March 2024. It empowers the European Commission to investigate violations, prohibit certain practices (like self-preferencing or restricting third-party app stores), and to impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover, or 20% for repeat offenses.\n> \n> In 2025, the Commission escalated enforcement. In March 2025, it opened non-compliance proceedings against several gatekeepers, and in April 2025 [issued the first fines](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1085) for DMA breaches: €500 million to Apple and €200 million to Meta. As of October 2025, preliminary findings remain open against [Alphabet](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-likely-be-hit-with-second-eu-antitrust-fine-sources-say-2025-09-25/), with possible final decisions expected later in the year.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40406,\"question_id\":39976,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40406). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 20:49:22 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40814, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764026629.865893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764026629.865893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.40497619047619066 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40406\n- Original question title: Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, the European Commission officially imposes a Digital Markets Act fine against any designated gatekeeper.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Reductions, appeals, or suspensions after the initial announcement will not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Digital Markets Act (DMA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act) is a European Union law that aims to curb anti-competitive behavior by major online platforms designated as gatekeepers; as of October 2025 [these are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act#Identified_gatekeepers) Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance. The DMA took effect during May 2023 and began full enforcement in March 2024. It empowers the European Commission to investigate violations, prohibit certain practices (like self-preferencing or restricting third-party app stores), and to impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover, or 20% for repeat offenses.\n> \n> In 2025, the Commission escalated enforcement. In March 2025, it opened non-compliance proceedings against several gatekeepers, and in April 2025 [issued the first fines](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1085) for DMA breaches: €500 million to Apple and €200 million to Meta. As of October 2025, preliminary findings remain open against [Alphabet](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-likely-be-hit-with-second-eu-antitrust-fine-sources-say-2025-09-25/), with possible final decisions expected later in the year.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40406,\"question_id\":39976,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 40813, "title": "Will LULU's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "url_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "slug": "lulus-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.540957Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T22:42:00.215380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.823958Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T01:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40472, "title": "Will LULU's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.541445Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T01:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "lululemon athletica inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LULU. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:29) is 168.18. You can find more information about lululemon athletica inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU\n\nlululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LULU\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LULU. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is LULU. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:29) is 168.18. You can find more information about lululemon athletica inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU\n\nlululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LULU\"}}`" }, { "id": 40812, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "url_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "slug": "rjfs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.017922Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T22:39:00.196573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.286575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:42:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40471, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.018337Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:42:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:33) is 152.99. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of RJF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40812, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764021272.032104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764021272.032104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5583846014492749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 4.0, 9.0, 17.0, 7.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:33) is 152.99. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. 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It's ticker is NWS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:32) is 29.0. You can find more information about News Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NWS\n\nNews Corporation, a media and information services company, creates and distributes authoritative and engaging content, and other products and services for consumers and businesses. It operates through five segments: Digital Real Estate Services, Dow Jones, Book Publishing, News Media, and Other. The company distributes content and data products through various media channels, such as newspapers, newswires, websites, mobile apps, newsletters, magazines, proprietary databases, live journalism, video, and podcasts under the MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Factiva, Dow Jones Risk & Compliance, Dow Jones Newswires, and Dow Jones Energy brands. It also owns and operates Monday to Friday, Saturday and Sunday, weekly, and bi-weekly newspapers comprising The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph, Herald Sun, Sunday Herald Sun, The Courier Mail, The Sunday Mail, The Advertiser, Sunday Mail, The Sun, The Sun on Sunday, The Times, The Sunday Times, and New York Post, as well as digital mastheads and other websites. In addition, the company publishes general fiction, nonfiction, children's, and religious books; and operates Storyful, a social media content agency, as well as sports radio network and news channels. Further, it offers property and property-related advertising and services on its websites and mobile applications; digital real estate services; and financial services. The company has operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australasia, and internationally. 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It's ticker is NWS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:32) is 29.0. You can find more information about News Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NWS\n\nNews Corporation, a media and information services company, creates and distributes authoritative and engaging content, and other products and services for consumers and businesses. It operates through five segments: Digital Real Estate Services, Dow Jones, Book Publishing, News Media, and Other. The company distributes content and data products through various media channels, such as newspapers, newswires, websites, mobile apps, newsletters, magazines, proprietary databases, live journalism, video, and podcasts under the MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Factiva, Dow Jones Risk & Compliance, Dow Jones Newswires, and Dow Jones Energy brands. It also owns and operates Monday to Friday, Saturday and Sunday, weekly, and bi-weekly newspapers comprising The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph, Herald Sun, Sunday Herald Sun, The Courier Mail, The Sunday Mail, The Advertiser, Sunday Mail, The Sun, The Sun on Sunday, The Times, The Sunday Times, and New York Post, as well as digital mastheads and other websites. In addition, the company publishes general fiction, nonfiction, children's, and religious books; and operates Storyful, a social media content agency, as well as sports radio network and news channels. Further, it offers property and property-related advertising and services on its websites and mobile applications; digital real estate services; and financial services. The company has operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australasia, and internationally. News Corporation was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NWS\"}}`" }, { "id": 40807, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.346329Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T15:59:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T17:30:00.234196Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.576558Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T06:53:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:59:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40466, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.346739Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:59:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T06:53:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052). If the community prediction on 2025-12-02 06:53:37 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40807, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764002227.828085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29000000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764002227.828085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29000000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29000000000000004 ], "means": [ 0.31297826086956543 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40806, "title": "Will USB's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "USB's close price rises?", "url_title": "USB's close price rises?", "slug": "usbs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.760206Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T15:34:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T17:05:00.355188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.078318Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:14:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:34:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40465, "title": "Will USB's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.760673Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:34:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:14:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "U.S. Bancorp is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is USB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:24) is 47.78. You can find more information about U.S. Bancorp at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USB\n\nU.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions in the United States. The company operates through Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking; Consumer and Business Banking; Payment Services; and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. It offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; and lending services, such as traditional credit products and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. The company also provides cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services; and ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers. In addition, it offers asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations; and investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to mutual and other funds. Further, the company provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing services. U.S. Bancorp was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"USB\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of USB. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40806, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764001923.015216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.536 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764001923.015216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.536 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5587681159420289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 5.0, 9.0, 19.0, 9.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "U.S. Bancorp is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is USB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:24) is 47.78. You can find more information about U.S. Bancorp at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USB\n\nU.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions in the United States. The company operates through Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking; Consumer and Business Banking; Payment Services; and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. It offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; and lending services, such as traditional credit products and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. The company also provides cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services; and ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers. In addition, it offers asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations; and investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to mutual and other funds. Further, the company provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing services. U.S. Bancorp was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"USB\"}}`" }, { "id": 40805, "title": "Will EPAM's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "EPAM's close price rises?", "url_title": "EPAM's close price rises?", "slug": "epams-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.178099Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T13:46:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T15:17:00.297577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.488246Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T13:24:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:46:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40464, "title": "Will EPAM's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.178647Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:46:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T13:24:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "EPAM Systems, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EPAM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:18) is 180.98. You can find more information about EPAM Systems, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EPAM\n\nEPAM Systems, Inc. provides digital platform engineering and software development services worldwide. The company offers engineering services, including requirements analysis and platform selection, customization, cross-platform migration, implementation, and integration; cloud services for creating a roadmap to set and refine IT and business goals while identifying new and emerging cloud opportunities; data, analytics and artificial intelligence; customer experience design; and cybersecurity. It also offers operation solutions comprising integrated engineering practices and smart automation services. In addition, the company offers software product and platform development services, which comprise product research, customer experience design and prototyping, program management, component design and integration, full lifecycle software testing, product deployment and end-user customization, performance tuning, product support and maintenance, managed services, as well as cross-platform migration and modernizing legacy platforms. The company serves the financial services; consumer goods, retail and travel; software and Hi-tech; business information and media, life sciences and healthcare; and emerging verticals industries EPAM Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EPAM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EPAM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40805, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763995121.453334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763995121.453334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5304587813620067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 9.0, 20.0, 4.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "EPAM Systems, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EPAM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:18) is 180.98. You can find more information about EPAM Systems, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EPAM\n\nEPAM Systems, Inc. provides digital platform engineering and software development services worldwide. The company offers engineering services, including requirements analysis and platform selection, customization, cross-platform migration, implementation, and integration; cloud services for creating a roadmap to set and refine IT and business goals while identifying new and emerging cloud opportunities; data, analytics and artificial intelligence; customer experience design; and cybersecurity. It also offers operation solutions comprising integrated engineering practices and smart automation services. In addition, the company offers software product and platform development services, which comprise product research, customer experience design and prototyping, program management, component design and integration, full lifecycle software testing, product deployment and end-user customization, performance tuning, product support and maintenance, managed services, as well as cross-platform migration and modernizing legacy platforms. The company serves the financial services; consumer goods, retail and travel; software and Hi-tech; business information and media, life sciences and healthcare; and emerging verticals industries EPAM Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EPAM\"}}`" }, { "id": 40804, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.765157Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T13:45:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T15:16:00.196731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.962610Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:08:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:45:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40463, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.765571Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:45:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:08:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 8.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.08}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 01:08:22 is higher than 8.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40804, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763994761.296833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763994761.296833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.31168100358422934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 8.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.08}}`" }, { "id": 40803, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-openai-tops-chatbot-arena-at-end-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.212381Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T13:09:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T14:40:00.214866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.547041Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:31:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:09:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40462, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.212808Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:09:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:31:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall, no style control category of the [Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/) has OpenAI as its organization.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * An OpenAI model has to have the highest Arena Score. Simply having a rank equal to 1 will not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**, as models with different Arena Scores can share rank 1. \n> * A tie for the highest Arena Score will count.\n> * If Chatbot Arena substantially changes its methodology or categories, Metaculus might correspondingly alter the resolution criteria or **annul** this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n> \n> As of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31326,\"question_id\":30960,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 01:31:58 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40803, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763993838.051415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763993838.051415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6525000000000001, 0.3475 ], "means": [ 0.3266274822695034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall, no style control category of the [Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/) has OpenAI as its organization.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * An OpenAI model has to have the highest Arena Score. Simply having a rank equal to 1 will not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**, as models with different Arena Scores can share rank 1. \n> * A tie for the highest Arena Score will count.\n> * If Chatbot Arena substantially changes its methodology or categories, Metaculus might correspondingly alter the resolution criteria or **annul** this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n> \n> As of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31326,\"question_id\":30960,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 40802, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.741506Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T12:47:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T14:18:00.227634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.951103Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T12:04:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:47:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40461, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.741933Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:47:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T12:04:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 12:04:56 is higher than 16.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40802, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763992132.569575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763992132.569575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.348068100358423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 22.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`" }, { "id": 40801, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 18.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.218394Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T12:03:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T13:34:00.347044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.552039Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T08:56:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:03:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40460, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 18.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.218816Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:03:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T08:56:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 18.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.18}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). If the community prediction on 2025-12-05 08:56:25 is higher than 18.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40801, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763989398.469947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763989398.469947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.35417028985507243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 18.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.18}}`" }, { "id": 40796, "title": "Will BG's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "BG's close price rises?", "url_title": "BG's close price rises?", "slug": "bgs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:21.465597Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T10:37:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T12:08:00.366419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:21.800396Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T04:56:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T10:37:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40455, "title": "Will BG's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:21.466093Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T10:37:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T04:56:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bunge Global SA is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:26) is 94.58. You can find more information about Bunge Global SA at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BG\n\nBunge Global SA operates as an agribusiness and food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy. The Agribusiness segment purchases, stores, transports, processes, and sells agricultural commodities and commodity products, including oilseeds primarily soybeans, rapeseed, canola, and sunflower seeds, as well as grains comprising wheat and corn; and processes oilseeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. This segment offers its products for animal feed manufacturers, livestock producers, wheat and corn millers, and other oilseed processors, as well as third-party edible oil processing and biofuel companies for biofuel production applications. The Refined and Specialty Oils segment sells packaged and bulk oils and fats that comprise cooking oils, shortenings, margarines, mayonnaise, renewable diesel feedstocks, and other products for baked goods companies, snack food producers, confectioners, restaurant chains, foodservice operators, infant nutrition companies, and other food manufacturers, as well as grocery chains, wholesalers, distributors, and other retailers. This segment also refines and fractionates palm oil, palm kernel oil, coconut oil, and shea butter, and olive oil; and produces specialty ingredients derived from vegetable oils, such as lecithin. The Milling segment provides wheat flours and bakery mixes; corn milling products that comprise dry-milled corn meals and flours, wet-milled masa and flours, and flaking and brewer's grits, as well as soy-fortified corn meal, corn-soy blends, and other products; whole grain and fiber ingredients; die-cut pellets; and non-GMO products. The Sugar and Bioenergy segment produces sugar and ethanol; and generates electricity from burning sugarcane bagasse. Bunge Global SA was founded in 1818 and is headquartered in Chesterfield, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40796, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763983802.378115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.544 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763983802.378115, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.544 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45599999999999996, 0.544 ], "means": [ 0.5394551971326162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 11.0, 6.0, 10.0, 25.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bunge Global SA is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:26) is 94.58. You can find more information about Bunge Global SA at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BG\n\nBunge Global SA operates as an agribusiness and food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy. The Agribusiness segment purchases, stores, transports, processes, and sells agricultural commodities and commodity products, including oilseeds primarily soybeans, rapeseed, canola, and sunflower seeds, as well as grains comprising wheat and corn; and processes oilseeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. This segment offers its products for animal feed manufacturers, livestock producers, wheat and corn millers, and other oilseed processors, as well as third-party edible oil processing and biofuel companies for biofuel production applications. The Refined and Specialty Oils segment sells packaged and bulk oils and fats that comprise cooking oils, shortenings, margarines, mayonnaise, renewable diesel feedstocks, and other products for baked goods companies, snack food producers, confectioners, restaurant chains, foodservice operators, infant nutrition companies, and other food manufacturers, as well as grocery chains, wholesalers, distributors, and other retailers. This segment also refines and fractionates palm oil, palm kernel oil, coconut oil, and shea butter, and olive oil; and produces specialty ingredients derived from vegetable oils, such as lecithin. The Milling segment provides wheat flours and bakery mixes; corn milling products that comprise dry-milled corn meals and flours, wet-milled masa and flours, and flaking and brewer's grits, as well as soy-fortified corn meal, corn-soy blends, and other products; whole grain and fiber ingredients; die-cut pellets; and non-GMO products. The Sugar and Bioenergy segment produces sugar and ethanol; and generates electricity from burning sugarcane bagasse. Bunge Global SA was founded in 1818 and is headquartered in Chesterfield, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BG\"}}`" } ] }