Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6689, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41617, "title": "Will FISV's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "FISV's close price rises?", "url_title": "FISV's close price rises?", "slug": "fisvs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:06.253893Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T15:24:43Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T16:55:00.184391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:06.928257Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:19:36Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T15:24:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41360, "title": "Will FISV's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:06.254335Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T15:24:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T03:19:36Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T16:54:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Fiserv, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FISV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:50) is 66.29. You can find more information about Fiserv, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FISV\n\nN/A\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FISV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FISV. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FISV's close price rises?", "post_id": 41617, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768840760.271328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.455 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768840760.271328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.455 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.545, 0.455 ], "means": [ 0.4643991573535506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 16.0, 4.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 9.0, 5.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fiserv, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FISV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:50) is 66.29. You can find more information about Fiserv, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FISV\n\nN/A\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FISV\"}}`" }, { "id": 41616, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2026-01-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-eu-age-verification-on-social-mediaai-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:02.231018Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T13:56:33Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T15:27:00.119206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:02.864111Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-26T14:39:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T13:56:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41359, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2026-01-26 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:43:02.231423Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T13:56:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-26T14:39:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T15:26:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173\n- Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n> \n> Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n> \n> Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n> \n> Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41173,\"question_id\":40901,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-26 14:39:39 is higher than 24.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 24.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-26 14:39:39, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41616, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768835453.664634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768835453.664634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4295728279292103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173\n- Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n> \n> Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n> \n> Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n> \n> Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41173,\"question_id\":40901,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`" }, { "id": 41612, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 27.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-2nd-us-intervention-in-venezuela-by-april-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:46.307622Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T11:29:40Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T13:00:00.378916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:46.717500Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:21:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:29:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41355, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 27.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:46.308021Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:29:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T21:21:45Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:59:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41485\n- Original question title: Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 27.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 7, 2026, but before May 1, 2026, the United States carries out an attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> * For the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n> * The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Venezuela with the assent of Venezuela's government will not cause this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n> * The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n> \n> In the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41485,\"question_id\":41209,\"last_cp\":0.27}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41485) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 21:21:45 is higher than 27.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 27.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 21:21:45, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41612, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768827413.607543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768827413.607543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.625, 0.375 ], "means": [ 0.38510972525266157 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41485\n- Original question title: Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 27.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 7, 2026, but before May 1, 2026, the United States carries out an attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> * For the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n> * The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Venezuela with the assent of Venezuela's government will not cause this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n> * The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n> \n> In the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41485,\"question_id\":41209,\"last_cp\":0.27}}`" }, { "id": 41610, "title": "Will EQIX's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "EQIX's close price rises?", "url_title": "EQIX's close price rises?", "slug": "eqixs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:38.197472Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T11:17:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T12:48:00.087640Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:38.605783Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:41:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:17:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41353, "title": "Will EQIX's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:38.197878Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T11:17:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T14:41:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:47:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Equinix, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EQIX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:57) is 801.78. You can find more information about Equinix, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQIX\n\nEquinix, Inc. shortens the path to boundless connectivity anywhere in the world. Its digital infrastructure, data center footprint and interconnected ecosystems empower innovations that enhance our work, life and planet. Equinix connects economies, countries, organizations and communities, delivering seamless digital experiences and cutting-edge AIquickly, efficiently and everywhere.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EQIX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EQIX. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "EQIX's close price rises?", "post_id": 41610, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768825941.560984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.5413893967093236 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5549201532320136 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768825941.560984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.5413893967093236 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5549201532320136 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4586106032906764, 0.5413893967093236 ], "means": [ 0.5345556423900292 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 10.0, 11.0, 6.0, 22.0, 4.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Equinix, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EQIX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:33:57) is 801.78. You can find more information about Equinix, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQIX\n\nEquinix, Inc. shortens the path to boundless connectivity anywhere in the world. Its digital infrastructure, data center footprint and interconnected ecosystems empower innovations that enhance our work, life and planet. Equinix connects economies, countries, organizations and communities, delivering seamless digital experiences and cutting-edge AIquickly, efficiently and everywhere.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EQIX\"}}`" }, { "id": 41609, "title": "Will CEG's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "CEG's close price rises?", "url_title": "CEG's close price rises?", "slug": "cegs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:34.211869Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T10:57:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T12:28:00.114705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:34.622765Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:13:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:57:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41352, "title": "Will CEG's market close price on 2026-01-30 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:34.212289Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:57:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:13:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T12:27:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Constellation Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CEG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:03) is 307.71. You can find more information about Constellation Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG\n\nConstellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. It operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. The company offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. It has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. The company serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CEG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CEG. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "CEG's close price rises?", "post_id": 41609, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768825317.536488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.535 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768825317.536488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.535 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4806056827401515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 6.0, 5.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Constellation Energy Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CEG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:03) is 307.71. You can find more information about Constellation Energy Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CEG\n\nConstellation Energy Corporation produces and sells energy products and services in the United States. It operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. The company offers electricity, natural gas, energy-related products, and sustainable solutions. It has approximately 31,676 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. The company serves distribution utilities, municipalities, cooperatives, and commercial, industrial, public sector, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CEG\"}}`" }, { "id": 41608, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-gain-sovereignty-over-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:26.817167Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T10:28:34Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:59:00.345232Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:27.311873Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T17:14:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41351, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:26.817904Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T17:14:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T11:58:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41502\n- Original question title: Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, at least one of the following occur:\n> \n> 1. A binding agreement which grants the United States sovereignty over any part of Greenland, even if implementation is pending, is formally agreed upon by the U.S government and either the Government of Denmark and/or the Government of Greenland\n> 2. The United States controls Greenland and any part of Greenland comes under formal sovereignty of the United States.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n> \n> > In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n> \n> > “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41502,\"question_id\":41231,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41502) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 17:14:35 is higher than 7.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 7.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 17:14:35, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41608, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768822644.894271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768822644.894271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6875, 0.3125 ], "means": [ 0.3546735510979334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41502\n- Original question title: Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, at least one of the following occur:\n> \n> 1. A binding agreement which grants the United States sovereignty over any part of Greenland, even if implementation is pending, is formally agreed upon by the U.S government and either the Government of Denmark and/or the Government of Greenland\n> 2. The United States controls Greenland and any part of Greenland comes under formal sovereignty of the United States.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n> \n> > In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n> \n> > “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41502,\"question_id\":41231,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`" }, { "id": 41605, "title": "Will ELV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "short_title": "ELV's close price rises?", "url_title": "ELV's close price rises?", "slug": "elvs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:14.181565Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T08:58:56Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T10:29:00.110600Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:14.722676Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:37:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:58:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41348, "title": "Will ELV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-19?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:14.182012Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:58:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:37:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T10:28:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Elevance Health, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ELV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:10) is 374.87. You can find more information about Elevance Health, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ELV\n\nElevance Health, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health benefits company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Health Benefits, CarelonRx, Carelon Services, and Corporate & Other. The company offers a variety of health plans and services to individual, employer group risk-based and fee-based, BlueCard, Medicare, Medicaid, and FEP members; health products; a broad array of fee-based administrative managed care services; and specialty and other insurance products and services, such as stop loss, dental, vision, and supplemental health insurance benefits. It also operates in the pharmacy services business; and markets and offers pharmacy services, including home delivery and specialty pharmacies, claims adjudication, formulary management, pharmacy networks, rebate administration, a prescription drug database, and member services, as well as infusion services and injectable therapies through ambulatory infusion centers. In addition, the company provides healthcare related services and capabilities, including specialty care enablement and utilization management support for specialized clinical domains; behavioral health and comprehensive care management services; palliative care services and management; virtual care; and payment integrity, subrogation, clinical data exchange through its HealthOS platform, research and data, reporting and clinical analytics, information technology, and business process support services, as well as manages home health, post-acute institutional management, and durable medical equipment costs; and supports plans in managing home and community-based services. It provides its services under the Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Wellpoint, and Carelon brands. The company was formerly known as Anthem, Inc. and changed its name to Elevance Health, Inc. in June 2022. Elevance Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ELV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ELV. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-19, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ELV's close price rises?", "post_id": 41605, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768818359.947306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768818359.947306, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.512 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5351775516365098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 12.0, 6.0, 24.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elevance Health, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ELV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:10) is 374.87. You can find more information about Elevance Health, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ELV\n\nElevance Health, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a health benefits company in the United States. It operates in four segments: Health Benefits, CarelonRx, Carelon Services, and Corporate & Other. The company offers a variety of health plans and services to individual, employer group risk-based and fee-based, BlueCard, Medicare, Medicaid, and FEP members; health products; a broad array of fee-based administrative managed care services; and specialty and other insurance products and services, such as stop loss, dental, vision, and supplemental health insurance benefits. It also operates in the pharmacy services business; and markets and offers pharmacy services, including home delivery and specialty pharmacies, claims adjudication, formulary management, pharmacy networks, rebate administration, a prescription drug database, and member services, as well as infusion services and injectable therapies through ambulatory infusion centers. In addition, the company provides healthcare related services and capabilities, including specialty care enablement and utilization management support for specialized clinical domains; behavioral health and comprehensive care management services; palliative care services and management; virtual care; and payment integrity, subrogation, clinical data exchange through its HealthOS platform, research and data, reporting and clinical analytics, information technology, and business process support services, as well as manages home health, post-acute institutional management, and durable medical equipment costs; and supports plans in managing home and community-based services. It provides its services under the Anthem Blue Cross and Blue Shield, Wellpoint, and Carelon brands. The company was formerly known as Anthem, Inc. and changed its name to Elevance Health, Inc. in June 2022. Elevance Health, Inc. was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ELV\"}}`" }, { "id": 41604, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New country winner of the 2026 World Cup?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New country winner of the 2026 World Cup?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-new-country-winner-of-the-2026-world-cup", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:10.081173Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T08:15:02Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T09:46:00.074156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:10.565845Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T20:02:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:15:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T06:45:18.439331Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41347, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2026-01-30 for the Metaculus question \"Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:42:10.081687Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T08:15:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-30T20:02:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-19T09:45:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41090\n- Original question title: Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of [2026 FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup) is a country other than Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, or Spain.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) is a quadrennial [football](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football) competition organised by FIFA. The [2026 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup), set to be jointly hosted Canada, Mexico and the United States, will take place from June 11 to July 19 2026.\n> \n> Despite beginning in 1930 and hosting competitions every 4 years, outside of World War 2, only a total of [8 countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_finals) have ever won the title.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41090,\"question_id\":40795,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41090) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-30 20:02:55 is higher than 20.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 20.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-30 20:02:55, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New country winner of the 2026 World Cup?\"?", "post_id": 41604, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768815726.556658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768815726.556658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33999999999999997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.33999999999999997 ], "means": [ 0.3319688895557805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41090\n- Original question title: Will the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup be a country that has never won before?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of [2026 FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup) is a country other than Uruguay, Italy, Germany, Brazil, England, Argentina, France, or Spain.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [FIFA World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) is a quadrennial [football](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football) competition organised by FIFA. The [2026 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup), set to be jointly hosted Canada, Mexico and the United States, will take place from June 11 to July 19 2026.\n> \n> Despite beginning in 1930 and hosting competitions every 4 years, outside of World War 2, only a total of [8 countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_FIFA_World_Cup_finals) have ever won the title.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41090,\"question_id\":40795,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 41594, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-attack-iran-before-april-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-17T18:58:49.294817Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T22:51:59Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T15:51:57.105643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T22:57:26.955939Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T16:41:46.208702Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T16:41:46.208702Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41340, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-17T18:58:49.295277Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Iran's territory or military forces, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Iran's territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous.", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "post_id": 41594, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high." }, { "id": 41577, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends?", "short_title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?", "url_title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?", "slug": "jerome-powell-out-as-fed-governor-before-term-end", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-14T20:05:45.637469Z", "published_at": "2026-01-17T19:20:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T10:12:48.811849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-17T19:21:00.894158Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-18T19:20:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41316, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before his term ends?", "created_at": "2026-01-14T20:05:45.637902Z", "open_time": "2026-01-18T19:20:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T19:20:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T19:20:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-02-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The [Federal Reserve Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States of America. It is responsible for the development and implementation of monetary policy. Each of the seven governors is appointed to 14-year terms by the U.S. President.\n\n[Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) is currently serving as both the chair and as a governor of the Board. His term as chair is due to end on May 23, 2026, and his term as governor is due to end on January 31, 2028. It is customary for outgoing chairs to resign their governor position at the same time or shortly after.\n\nOn January 11, 2026, Powell made a [statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm) relating to a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice against him, resisting claims of impropriety in connection with ongoing renovations to the Fed's headquarters. Because the independence of central banks is [considered sacrosanct](https://www.reuters.com/business/global-central-bank-chiefs-plan-statement-support-feds-powell-2026-01-13/), [some](https://www.ft.com/content/c5bfbc6d-cd05-4f53-b3b0-5a2de80c139a) have suggested that Powell could stay on as governor in an attempt to safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve from further attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Jerome Powell ceases to be a governor of the Federal Reserve Board before January 31, 2028, as reported by the [official Federal Reserve website](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm).", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Jerome Powell out as Fed governor before term end?", "post_id": 41577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Reserve Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/) is the governing body of the Federal Reserve System, the central bank of the United States of America. It is responsible for the development and implementation of monetary policy. Each of the seven governors is appointed to 14-year terms by the U.S. President.\n\n[Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) is currently serving as both the chair and as a governor of the Board. His term as chair is due to end on May 23, 2026, and his term as governor is due to end on January 31, 2028. It is customary for outgoing chairs to resign their governor position at the same time or shortly after.\n\nOn January 11, 2026, Powell made a [statement](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20260111a.htm) relating to a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice against him, resisting claims of impropriety in connection with ongoing renovations to the Fed's headquarters. Because the independence of central banks is [considered sacrosanct](https://www.reuters.com/business/global-central-bank-chiefs-plan-statement-support-feds-powell-2026-01-13/), [some](https://www.ft.com/content/c5bfbc6d-cd05-4f53-b3b0-5a2de80c139a) have suggested that Powell could stay on as governor in an attempt to safeguard the independence of the Federal Reserve from further attacks." }, { "id": 41568, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "url_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "slug": "us-job-gain-from-dec-2025-to-feb-2026-less-than-100k", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:09.265974Z", "published_at": "2026-01-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-16T16:00:00.139888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:09.774657Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:58:51.641405Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:58:51.641405Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41304, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:09.266433Z", "open_time": "2026-01-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41337,\"question_id\":41037}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for February 2026, minus the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for December 2025, according to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS), is less than 100 thousand.\n\nThis question will resolve using the numbers from the Employment Situation for February 2026. Therefore, it will most probably use the initial estimates for February and the revised estimates for December 2025.", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41337) which opened on 2026-01-12 16:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "post_id": 41568, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768578821.827681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768578821.827681, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5936117045804842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 4.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41337,\"question_id\":41037}}`" }, { "id": 41567, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "url_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "slug": "attacks-causes-5-israeli-casualties-or-shelter-order-by-march-1", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:05.178563Z", "published_at": "2026-01-16T12:53:19Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-16T14:24:00.106659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:05.679170Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-16T12:53:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:58:51.641405Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:58:51.641405Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41303, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-14T00:20:05.178984Z", "open_time": "2026-01-16T12:53:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41516,\"question_id\":41259}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2026, at least one of the following occur:\n\n1. A foreign attack within Israel results in 5 or more casualties according to credible sources.\n2. The government of Israel issues a nationwide shelter in place order.", "fine_print": "For this question, casualties refer to both deaths and injuries and includes both the civilian population and military soldiers.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, territory administered by Israel within the West Bank, and the Golan Heights will be counted as within Israel.\n\nNon-state organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah conducting an attack will qualify as a foreign attack for this question.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41516) which opened on 2026-01-12 14:23:19. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "post_id": 41567, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768573147.461425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.261 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768573147.461425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.261 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.41569014217953926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41516,\"question_id\":41259}}`" }, { "id": 41563, "title": "Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?", "short_title": "Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?", "url_title": "Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?", "slug": "insurrection-actmartial-law-be-declared-for-2026-midterms", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:46:15.292405Z", "published_at": "2026-01-17T17:39:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:37:42.446940Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-17T17:39:15.507473Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-18T17:39:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41299, "title": "Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:46:15.292832Z", "open_time": "2026-01-18T17:39:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T17:39:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T17:39:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?*\n\nThe [<u>Insurrection Act of 1807</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#:~:text=The%20Insurrection%20Act%20of%201807,insurrection%2C%20and%20of%20armed%20rebellion) is a federal law that allows the U.S. president to deploy active-duty military forces or federalize the National Guard within the United States under specific circumstances, such as suppressing insurrection, enforcing federal law when states are unwilling or unable to do so, or protecting constitutional rights. Unlike most emergency powers, the Insurrection Act places [<u>few procedural constraints on presidential discretion</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained), which has led to longstanding debate over its scope and potential for abuse. U.S. courts have repeatedly held that martial law is constitutionally suspect and permissible only in the most extraordinary circumstances, particularly [<u>where civilian courts remain functional</u>](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/71/2/).\n\nThe Insurrection Act has been invoked sparingly in modern history, most notably during [<u>desegregation efforts in the 1950s–60s and during the 1992 Los Angeles riots</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-invocations-insurrection-act). More recently, its potential use has been [<u>publicly discussed</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-the-insurrection-act-heres-what-trump-has-said-about-using-it) — though not invoked — in response to civil unrest and election-related disputes, prompting renewed scrutiny from lawmakers and civil-military scholars.\n\nWith reference to the [<u>2026 U.S. midterm elections</u>](https://gsi.s-rminform.com/articles/trouble-ahead-rising-political-tensions-foreshadow-2026-us-midterm-elections), questions about the Insurrection Act or martial law typically arise in relation to concerns about [<u>election administration, civil unrest, contested results, or disruptions to voting or certification processes</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/insurrection-act-presidential-power-threatens-democracy#:~:text=And%20let's%20not%20forget%20Trump's,in%20Spanish%20by%20La%20Opini%C3%B3n.). U.S. elections are administered by states, and federal military involvement in election-related matters would represent a significant departure from normal practice. As a result, any invocation of the Insurrection Act or declaration resembling martial law tied to the 2026 midterms would likely trigger [<u>immediate legal challenges</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/21/politics/fact-check-insurrection-act-trump), congressional scrutiny, and [<u>domestic and international attention.</u>](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-trump-insurrection-act-threat-9.6931273)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2027, one or more of the following occur:\n\n1. The President of the United States invokes the Insurrection Act officially citing election-related reasons.\n2. Federal or state authorities declare martial law or establish military control over civilian governance for election-related reasons, with the reasons acknowledged by official government statements.\n3. A U.S. court, Congress, or a federal agency formally recognizes that military authority has replaced or superseded civilian election administration in one or more jurisdictions as a result of executive action that is recognised to be tied to election-related reasons.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, \"election-related reasons\" refers to any of the following:\n\n* election-related unrest\n* election administration\n* certification disputes\n* enforcement of election-related law\n* securing polling locations\n* overseeing ballot counting\n* enforcing election outcomes", "short_title": "Insurrection Act/martial law be declared for 2026 midterms?", "post_id": 41563, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the Insurrection Act or a state of martial law be declared in relation to the 2026 U.S. midterms?*\n\nThe [<u>Insurrection Act of 1807</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807#:~:text=The%20Insurrection%20Act%20of%201807,insurrection%2C%20and%20of%20armed%20rebellion) is a federal law that allows the U.S. president to deploy active-duty military forces or federalize the National Guard within the United States under specific circumstances, such as suppressing insurrection, enforcing federal law when states are unwilling or unable to do so, or protecting constitutional rights. Unlike most emergency powers, the Insurrection Act places [<u>few procedural constraints on presidential discretion</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained), which has led to longstanding debate over its scope and potential for abuse. U.S. courts have repeatedly held that martial law is constitutionally suspect and permissible only in the most extraordinary circumstances, particularly [<u>where civilian courts remain functional</u>](https://supreme.justia.com/cases/federal/us/71/2/).\n\nThe Insurrection Act has been invoked sparingly in modern history, most notably during [<u>desegregation efforts in the 1950s–60s and during the 1992 Los Angeles riots</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/guide-invocations-insurrection-act). More recently, its potential use has been [<u>publicly discussed</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/what-is-the-insurrection-act-heres-what-trump-has-said-about-using-it) — though not invoked — in response to civil unrest and election-related disputes, prompting renewed scrutiny from lawmakers and civil-military scholars.\n\nWith reference to the [<u>2026 U.S. midterm elections</u>](https://gsi.s-rminform.com/articles/trouble-ahead-rising-political-tensions-foreshadow-2026-us-midterm-elections), questions about the Insurrection Act or martial law typically arise in relation to concerns about [<u>election administration, civil unrest, contested results, or disruptions to voting or certification processes</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/insurrection-act-presidential-power-threatens-democracy#:~:text=And%20let's%20not%20forget%20Trump's,in%20Spanish%20by%20La%20Opini%C3%B3n.). U.S. elections are administered by states, and federal military involvement in election-related matters would represent a significant departure from normal practice. As a result, any invocation of the Insurrection Act or declaration resembling martial law tied to the 2026 midterms would likely trigger [<u>immediate legal challenges</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/21/politics/fact-check-insurrection-act-trump), congressional scrutiny, and [<u>domestic and international attention.</u>](https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/us-trump-insurrection-act-threat-9.6931273)" }, { "id": 41562, "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York in the 2028 election cycle?", "short_title": "Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?", "url_title": "Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?", "slug": "will-aoc-primary-chuck-schumer-for-us-senate-in-ny-by-jan-1-2029", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:42:26.879457Z", "published_at": "2026-01-14T01:55:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T22:42:52.669269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T01:57:00.642099Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-15T01:55:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32928, "name": "2026-2030 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2030_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:44:06.080995Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:44:06.080995Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41298, "title": "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York in the 2028 election cycle?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:42:26.879865Z", "open_time": "2026-01-15T01:55:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T01:55:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T01:55:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-06-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-06-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Alexandria-OcasioCortez-primary-Chuck-Schumer-for-the-US-Senate-in-New-York)\n\n[<u>Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)</u>](https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/) is a U.S. Representative from New York and a leading progressive voice within the Democratic Party. She has gained national prominence for her advocacy on issues such as climate policy, economic inequality, and social justice, and has built a large fundraising base and national profile. In early 2025, she reported [<u>strong fundraising figures</u>](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?) that many progressives interpreted as positioning her for larger political ambitions beyond the House of Representatives.[ ](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n[<u>Chuck Schumer</u>](https://www.schumer.senate.gov/), also a Democrat from New York, has served in the U.S. Senate since 1999 and holds considerable influence as Senate Democratic leader. He remains a powerful incumbent with deep institutional support, but has [<u>faced criticism from elements of his party</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/chuck-schumer-government-funding-test-democratic-fury-2121777?), especially after controversial legislative decisions such as [<u>advancing a bipartisan funding bill to avert a government shutdown in 2025</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/11/us-senate-votes-to-end-shutdown-why-democrats-are-upset-with-chuck-schumer?).\n\nThere is speculation and some polling about a potential future contest between Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer. A [<u>2025 poll</u>](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?) of likely Democratic voters in New York showed Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by a double-digit margin in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic Senate primary, suggesting vulnerability for Schumer within his own party if he seeks another term and if such a race were to materialize.[ ](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Analysts and some Democratic strategists have privately encouraged Ocasio-Cortez to [<u>consider challenging Schumer,</u>](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/13/politics/ocasio-cortez-schumer-democratic-shutdown-plan?utm_source=chatgpt.com) reflecting frustration with his leadership among progressive factions.\n\nAt the same time, Ocasio-Cortez herself has not publicly committed to running for the Senate seat. In public remarks, she has [<u>acknowledged calls from supporters to consider a challenge but has declined to explicitly announce intentions</u>](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/3884815/aoc-ducks-criticize-schumer-new-york-senate-noise-real/?), noting the timeline is several years away. [<u>Schumer’s own office and allies have dismissed or downplayed the prospect of an imminent primary challenge</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/schumer-dismisses-possible-aoc-primary-challenge-says-hes-focused-bringing-trumps-numbers-down?), characterizing it as premature.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, in the 2028 election cycle, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez officially files to run *and* appears on the ballot in the Democratic primary election against Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate seat in New York, and the primary is conducted and certified by the appropriate election authorities.", "fine_print": "If the NY State Democratic primary filing deadline passes without Ocasio-Cortez having filed, the question resolves as No. \n\nIf Schumer retires or leaves office before a primary, and Ocasio-Cortez runs for the open seat, this question will be **annulled**.", "short_title": "Will AOC primary Chuck Schumer for U.S. Senate in NY by Jan. 1, 2029?", "post_id": 41562, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769035361.820586, "end_time": 1776243377.581, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769035361.820586, "end_time": 1776243377.581, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4463496948898672 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1403260614666047, 0.03906061193493671, 0.13444868060126633, 0.2726126670553227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.49114657277086, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez primary Chuck Schumer for the U.S. Senate in New York?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Alexandria-OcasioCortez-primary-Chuck-Schumer-for-the-US-Senate-in-New-York)\n\n[<u>Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC)</u>](https://ocasio-cortez.house.gov/) is a U.S. Representative from New York and a leading progressive voice within the Democratic Party. She has gained national prominence for her advocacy on issues such as climate policy, economic inequality, and social justice, and has built a large fundraising base and national profile. In early 2025, she reported [<u>strong fundraising figures</u>](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?) that many progressives interpreted as positioning her for larger political ambitions beyond the House of Representatives.[ ](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/15/ocasio-cortez-raised-9-6-million-in-three-months-smashing-her-own-record-00291694?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n[<u>Chuck Schumer</u>](https://www.schumer.senate.gov/), also a Democrat from New York, has served in the U.S. Senate since 1999 and holds considerable influence as Senate Democratic leader. He remains a powerful incumbent with deep institutional support, but has [<u>faced criticism from elements of his party</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/chuck-schumer-government-funding-test-democratic-fury-2121777?), especially after controversial legislative decisions such as [<u>advancing a bipartisan funding bill to avert a government shutdown in 2025</u>](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/11/us-senate-votes-to-end-shutdown-why-democrats-are-upset-with-chuck-schumer?).\n\nThere is speculation and some polling about a potential future contest between Ocasio-Cortez and Schumer. A [<u>2025 poll</u>](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?) of likely Democratic voters in New York showed Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by a double-digit margin in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic Senate primary, suggesting vulnerability for Schumer within his own party if he seeks another term and if such a race were to materialize.[ ](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/ocasio-cortez-leads-schumer-in-2028-new-york-senate-primary-poll-survey/3528791?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Analysts and some Democratic strategists have privately encouraged Ocasio-Cortez to [<u>consider challenging Schumer,</u>](https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2025/03/13/politics/ocasio-cortez-schumer-democratic-shutdown-plan?utm_source=chatgpt.com) reflecting frustration with his leadership among progressive factions.\n\nAt the same time, Ocasio-Cortez herself has not publicly committed to running for the Senate seat. In public remarks, she has [<u>acknowledged calls from supporters to consider a challenge but has declined to explicitly announce intentions</u>](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/3884815/aoc-ducks-criticize-schumer-new-york-senate-noise-real/?), noting the timeline is several years away. [<u>Schumer’s own office and allies have dismissed or downplayed the prospect of an imminent primary challenge</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/schumer-dismisses-possible-aoc-primary-challenge-says-hes-focused-bringing-trumps-numbers-down?), characterizing it as premature." }, { "id": 41561, "title": "Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?", "short_title": "US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?", "url_title": "US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?", "slug": "us-strikes-is-in-nigeria-before-dec-25-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:23:26.832159Z", "published_at": "2026-01-17T15:31:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T02:46:44.932213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-17T15:32:04.236783Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-25T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-18T15:31:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41297, "title": "Will the United States launch another strike against Islamic State in Nigeria before Christmas 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T16:23:26.832588Z", "open_time": "2026-01-18T15:31:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-22T15:31:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-22T15:31:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-25T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On December 25, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump authorised the US military to [launch airstrikes against the Islamic State](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/25/trump-nigeria-christmas-strike-00706646) (IS) in Nigeria. [Militants were killed in camps run by the group in Sokoto state](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj69j8l918do) (in north-western Nigeria) in a joint operation with the Nigerian government.\n\nOn Truth Social, US President Donald J. Trump said:\n\n> May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.\n\nLeading up to this, [US President Donald J. Trump had raised concerns about the safety Christians in Nigeria](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), due to some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians stating that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. [The US President threatened military intervention](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/12/12/why-donald-trump-is-threatening-military-intervention-in-nigeria-and-what-it-means-for-the-government/) despite the [Nigerian government stating](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/848622-trump-warns-of-more-us-strikes-in-nigeria.html) that there is no Christian genocide taking place in the country.\n\nOn January 8, 2026, [the US President said there could be more US strikes in Nigeria](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/08/us/trump-nyt-interview) if attacks on the country’s Christian population persist:\n\n> I’d love to make it a one-time strike … But if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many-time strike.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after January 18, 2026, and before December 25, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against the Islamic State within Nigeria's territory.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Nigerian territory: cyberattacks, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nAn attack does not need to have to have the co-operation of the Nigeria government to resolve this question as Yes. \n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In the case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "short_title": "US strikes IS in Nigeria before Dec 25, 2026?", "post_id": 41561, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768963594.449036, "end_time": 1771431290.669, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768963594.449036, "end_time": 1771431290.669, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7792527941348079 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 25, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump authorised the US military to [launch airstrikes against the Islamic State](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/25/trump-nigeria-christmas-strike-00706646) (IS) in Nigeria. [Militants were killed in camps run by the group in Sokoto state](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj69j8l918do) (in north-western Nigeria) in a joint operation with the Nigerian government.\n\nOn Truth Social, US President Donald J. Trump said:\n\n> May God Bless our Military, and MERRY CHRISTMAS to all, including the dead Terrorists, of which there will be many more if their slaughter of Christians continues.\n\nLeading up to this, [US President Donald J. Trump had raised concerns about the safety Christians in Nigeria](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), due to some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians stating that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. [The US President threatened military intervention](https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/usappblog/2025/12/12/why-donald-trump-is-threatening-military-intervention-in-nigeria-and-what-it-means-for-the-government/) despite the [Nigerian government stating](https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/848622-trump-warns-of-more-us-strikes-in-nigeria.html) that there is no Christian genocide taking place in the country.\n\nOn January 8, 2026, [the US President said there could be more US strikes in Nigeria](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01/08/us/trump-nyt-interview) if attacks on the country’s Christian population persist:\n\n> I’d love to make it a one-time strike … But if they continue to kill Christians, it will be a many-time strike." }, { "id": 41555, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "url_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "slug": "will-laura-fernandez-win-the-costa-rican-presidential-election", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-13T01:59:36.776442Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T22:45:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T15:16:21.604487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T22:57:04.881062Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T16:41:46.208702Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T16:41:46.208702Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41293, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "created_at": "2026-01-13T01:59:36.776841Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Laura Fernández Delgado wins the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, according to the official results published by the [Electoral Court of Costa Rica](https://www.tse.go.cr/resultados.html).", "fine_print": "If the election is postponed such that no winner is declared by May 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "post_id": 41555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting)." }, { "id": 41543, "title": "Will Iceland pass a referendum to resume EU membership negotiations before 2028?", "short_title": "Iceland passes EU membership referendum by 2028?", "url_title": "Iceland passes EU membership referendum by 2028?", "slug": "iceland-passes-eu-membership-referendum-by-2028", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-11T15:51:50.904980Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T06:40:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T21:47:37.762231Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T06:41:30.997493Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-13T06:40:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41284, "title": "Will Iceland pass a referendum to resume EU membership negotiations before 2028?", "created_at": "2026-01-11T15:51:50.905409Z", "open_time": "2026-01-13T06:40:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-17T06:40:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-17T06:40:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Although Iceland applied to join the European Union (EU) in [2009](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8153139.stm), the application was suspended in 2013. Since then there have been talks of resuming, but this time under the mandate of a public referendum. In 2026, the foreign minister of Iceland [announced](https://www.ruv.is/english/2026-01-09-referendum-on-eu-accession-talks-likely-in-spring-2027-463292) that a parliamentary resolution to hold a referendum would be presented during spring of 2026. If approved, it is expected that this referendum would be held in spring 2027.\n\nPublic opinion on Icelandic relations with the EU has differed through the years, but currently appears to be more positive than negative. Polls on the topic are collated on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Public_opinion).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Icelandic voters approve a referendum to hold negotiations with the European Union on the topic of Icelandic membership in the European Union before January 1, 2028.\n\nIf a referendum is held and voters do not approve it, and no further referenda on the topic are scheduled before January 1, 2028, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Iceland passes EU membership referendum by 2028?", "post_id": 41543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768859247.27364, "end_time": 1776130695.622, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768859247.27364, "end_time": 1776130695.622, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5777329092887847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.9176990072834816, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.6082551002884056, 0.30235531220200856, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although Iceland applied to join the European Union (EU) in [2009](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8153139.stm), the application was suspended in 2013. Since then there have been talks of resuming, but this time under the mandate of a public referendum. In 2026, the foreign minister of Iceland [announced](https://www.ruv.is/english/2026-01-09-referendum-on-eu-accession-talks-likely-in-spring-2027-463292) that a parliamentary resolution to hold a referendum would be presented during spring of 2026. If approved, it is expected that this referendum would be held in spring 2027.\n\nPublic opinion on Icelandic relations with the EU has differed through the years, but currently appears to be more positive than negative. Polls on the topic are collated on [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iceland%E2%80%93European_Union_relations#Public_opinion)." }, { "id": 41527, "title": "Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?", "short_title": "US attack in Colombia before 2027?", "url_title": "US attack in Colombia before 2027?", "slug": "us-attack-in-colombia-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:54:54.711681Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T06:38:06Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-20T00:53:52.104948Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T06:39:00.935783Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T06:38:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41268, "title": "Will the United States attack Colombia before 2027?", "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:54:54.712066Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T06:38:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T06:38:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T06:38:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-12T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In September 2025, the United States added Colombia to a list of nations [failing to cooperate in the drug war](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-drug-war-cooperation-14493c8f7a9af102a8a29cc368ac1e03) for the first time in almost 30 years. The designation led to a slashing of US assistance to the country. [The Trump administration also imposed sanctions](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-petro-sanctions-drug-trafficking-1b6ead338ec266b3df40859db6ee2d8d) in October 2025 on President Gustavo Petro, his family and a member of his government over accusations of involvement in the global drug trade.\n\nOn January 5, 2026, US President [Donald J. Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-new-military-operation-focused-colombia-sounds-good-him-2026-01-05/) told reporters aboard Air Force One that military action against Colombia's government \"sounds good to me\":\n\n> \"Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man, who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long,\" Trump told reporters... in an apparent reference to Colombia's President.\n\nColombia’s outspoken left-wing President has responded to the US capture of [Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-capture-trump-attack-military-ceb21da088f0a06b1813e66922def9a3) by escalating his [spiraling war of words with the US President](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0), stating it was an “abhorrent” violation of [Latin American sovereignty](https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/trump-venezuela-cuba-colombia-mexico-imperialism-600f77e9930aaf6cd856b4a384c51287). He also suggested it was committed by \"enslavers\" and constituted a \"spectacle of death\" comparable to Nazi Germany’s 1937 carpet bombing of Guernica, Spain.\n\nDespite this, just days later the [US President abruptly changed](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-venezuela-petro-610cfdb86d38544712c3f673639845e1) his tone stating the two Presidents had exchanged a friendly phone call and he had invited the Colombian President to the White House.\n\n[The two countries have a historic alliance](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0) but political tensions remain.\n\n> For Colombia, the U.S. remains key to the military’s fight against leftist guerrillas and drug traffickers. Washington has provided Bogotá with roughly \\$14 billion in the last two decades.\n\n> For the U.S., Colombia remains the cornerstone of its counternarcotics strategy abroad, providing crucial intelligence used [to interdict drugs in the Caribbean](https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-smuggling-30c3e97599eb4b859ca575c58baab4ef).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after January 13, 2026 and before January 1, 2027, the United States of America carries out an attack against Colombia's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Colombian territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n* For the purpose of this question, Colombia's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n* The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Colombia with the assent of Colombia's government will not cause this question to resolve as Yes.\n* The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as Yes.", "short_title": "US attack in Colombia before 2027?", "post_id": 41527, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768870421.124361, "end_time": 1770924527.765, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.494 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768870421.124361, "end_time": 1770924527.765, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.494 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3010246893787886 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0442334220772216, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.6979455443250199, 1.2325189050610725, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.20851081619995687, 0.24582621653782244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.7477959545495109, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In September 2025, the United States added Colombia to a list of nations [failing to cooperate in the drug war](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-drug-war-cooperation-14493c8f7a9af102a8a29cc368ac1e03) for the first time in almost 30 years. The designation led to a slashing of US assistance to the country. [The Trump administration also imposed sanctions](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-petro-sanctions-drug-trafficking-1b6ead338ec266b3df40859db6ee2d8d) in October 2025 on President Gustavo Petro, his family and a member of his government over accusations of involvement in the global drug trade.\n\nOn January 5, 2026, US President [Donald J. Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-says-new-military-operation-focused-colombia-sounds-good-him-2026-01-05/) told reporters aboard Air Force One that military action against Colombia's government \"sounds good to me\":\n\n> \"Colombia is very sick, too, run by a sick man, who likes making cocaine and selling it to the United States, and he's not going to be doing it very long,\" Trump told reporters... in an apparent reference to Colombia's President.\n\nColombia’s outspoken left-wing President has responded to the US capture of [Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-maduro-capture-trump-attack-military-ceb21da088f0a06b1813e66922def9a3) by escalating his [spiraling war of words with the US President](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0), stating it was an “abhorrent” violation of [Latin American sovereignty](https://apnews.com/photo-gallery/trump-venezuela-cuba-colombia-mexico-imperialism-600f77e9930aaf6cd856b4a384c51287). He also suggested it was committed by \"enslavers\" and constituted a \"spectacle of death\" comparable to Nazi Germany’s 1937 carpet bombing of Guernica, Spain.\n\nDespite this, just days later the [US President abruptly changed](https://apnews.com/article/trump-colombia-venezuela-petro-610cfdb86d38544712c3f673639845e1) his tone stating the two Presidents had exchanged a friendly phone call and he had invited the Colombian President to the White House.\n\n[The two countries have a historic alliance](https://apnews.com/article/colombia-petro-trump-venezuela-maduro-eaf98a41ae427a2d218910606a6fa3e0) but political tensions remain.\n\n> For Colombia, the U.S. remains key to the military’s fight against leftist guerrillas and drug traffickers. Washington has provided Bogotá with roughly \\$14 billion in the last two decades.\n\n> For the U.S., Colombia remains the cornerstone of its counternarcotics strategy abroad, providing crucial intelligence used [to interdict drugs in the Caribbean](https://apnews.com/article/only-on-ap-smuggling-30c3e97599eb4b859ca575c58baab4ef)." }, { "id": 41526, "title": "Will the Euro appreciate against the Dollar during 2026?", "short_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "url_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "slug": "euro-gains-vs-dollar-in-2026", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:10:39.124570Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T14:29:27Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T17:57:25.880624Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T14:29:31.899923Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:29:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41267, "title": "Will the Euro appreciate against the Dollar during 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:10:39.125002Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:29:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:29:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:29:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro. \n\nIn September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026, that has not happened, with the exchange rate remaining in the 1.15 - 1.18 range.\n\nIn general, economic uncertainty or low interest rates drives investors away from a currency. Thus, economic growth, central bank activities and government policy will likely impact the exchange rate. While opinions differ, the current consensus [appears to be negative](https://www.reuters.com/business/dire-year-dollar-has-little-light-end-tunnel-2026-2025-12-22/) for the dollar in 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the exchange rate from the Euro (EUR) to Dollar (USD) on the last trading day of 2026 is higher than 1.1747 as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX/). ", "fine_print": "The value for this question is expected be available under the \"Historical Data\" tab of the EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) ticker in the \"Close\" column.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance ceases to be available, alternative reliable sources of currency exchange rates may be used.\n\nIf EUR or USD cease to exist, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "post_id": 41526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769018235.53851, "end_time": 1770924830.582, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769018235.53851, "end_time": 1770924830.582, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.6207543765846382 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37946138091132875, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.8466140333370573, 0.9696617405915442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.3168435046961656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro. \n\nIn September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026, that has not happened, with the exchange rate remaining in the 1.15 - 1.18 range.\n\nIn general, economic uncertainty or low interest rates drives investors away from a currency. Thus, economic growth, central bank activities and government policy will likely impact the exchange rate. While opinions differ, the current consensus [appears to be negative](https://www.reuters.com/business/dire-year-dollar-has-little-light-end-tunnel-2026-2025-12-22/) for the dollar in 2026." }, { "id": 41521, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-unga-condemn-the-us-operation-in-venezuela-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.357372Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-15T06:34:26.015637Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.548056Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:58:51.641405Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T14:58:51.641405Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41264, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.357787Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41499,\"question_id\":41228}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, the United Nations General Assembly adopts a [resolution](https://research.un.org/en/docs/ga/quick/regular/80) that according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) condemns or deplores a US operation in Venezuela.", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41499) which opened on 2026-01-07 13:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41521, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768169118.669351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768169118.669351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.504703323292036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41499,\"question_id\":41228}}`" } ] }
