Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6451, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 40813, "title": "Will LULU's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "url_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "slug": "lulus-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.540957Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T22:42:00.215380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.823958Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T01:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40472, "title": "Will LULU's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.541445Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T01:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "lululemon athletica inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LULU. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:29) is 168.18. You can find more information about lululemon athletica inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU\n\nlululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LULU\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LULU. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40813, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764022287.987349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5269049461221755 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764022287.987349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5269049461221755 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4623521002780182 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 4.0, 20.0, 1.0, 6.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "lululemon athletica inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LULU. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:29) is 168.18. You can find more information about lululemon athletica inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU\n\nlululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LULU\"}}`" }, { "id": 40812, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "url_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "slug": "rjfs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.017922Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T22:39:00.196573Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.286575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:42:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40471, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.018337Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:42:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:33) is 152.99. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of RJF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40812, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764021272.032104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764021272.032104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5583846014492749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 4.0, 9.0, 17.0, 7.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:33) is 152.99. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`" }, { "id": 40810, "title": "Will NWS's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "NWS's close price rises?", "url_title": "NWS's close price rises?", "slug": "nwss-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:28.793528Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T19:31:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:54:51.846458Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:29.113367Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T21:01:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T21:01:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T19:01:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T19:31:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40469, "title": "Will NWS's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:28.793936Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T19:31:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T21:01:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T21:01:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T19:01:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:54:44.928238Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T21:01:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T21:01:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "News Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NWS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:32) is 29.0. You can find more information about News Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NWS\n\nNews Corporation, a media and information services company, creates and distributes authoritative and engaging content, and other products and services for consumers and businesses. It operates through five segments: Digital Real Estate Services, Dow Jones, Book Publishing, News Media, and Other. The company distributes content and data products through various media channels, such as newspapers, newswires, websites, mobile apps, newsletters, magazines, proprietary databases, live journalism, video, and podcasts under the MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Factiva, Dow Jones Risk & Compliance, Dow Jones Newswires, and Dow Jones Energy brands. It also owns and operates Monday to Friday, Saturday and Sunday, weekly, and bi-weekly newspapers comprising The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph, Herald Sun, Sunday Herald Sun, The Courier Mail, The Sunday Mail, The Advertiser, Sunday Mail, The Sun, The Sun on Sunday, The Times, The Sunday Times, and New York Post, as well as digital mastheads and other websites. In addition, the company publishes general fiction, nonfiction, children's, and religious books; and operates Storyful, a social media content agency, as well as sports radio network and news channels. Further, it offers property and property-related advertising and services on its websites and mobile applications; digital real estate services; and financial services. The company has operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australasia, and internationally. News Corporation was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NWS\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NWS. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40810, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764017673.555002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764017673.555002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5373121878185587 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 6.0, 7.0, 7.0, 17.0, 7.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "News Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NWS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:32) is 29.0. You can find more information about News Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NWS\n\nNews Corporation, a media and information services company, creates and distributes authoritative and engaging content, and other products and services for consumers and businesses. It operates through five segments: Digital Real Estate Services, Dow Jones, Book Publishing, News Media, and Other. The company distributes content and data products through various media channels, such as newspapers, newswires, websites, mobile apps, newsletters, magazines, proprietary databases, live journalism, video, and podcasts under the MarketWatch, The Wall Street Journal, Barron's, Investor's Business Daily, Factiva, Dow Jones Risk & Compliance, Dow Jones Newswires, and Dow Jones Energy brands. It also owns and operates Monday to Friday, Saturday and Sunday, weekly, and bi-weekly newspapers comprising The Australian, The Weekend Australian, The Daily Telegraph, The Sunday Telegraph, Herald Sun, Sunday Herald Sun, The Courier Mail, The Sunday Mail, The Advertiser, Sunday Mail, The Sun, The Sun on Sunday, The Times, The Sunday Times, and New York Post, as well as digital mastheads and other websites. In addition, the company publishes general fiction, nonfiction, children's, and religious books; and operates Storyful, a social media content agency, as well as sports radio network and news channels. Further, it offers property and property-related advertising and services on its websites and mobile applications; digital real estate services; and financial services. The company has operations in the United States, Canada, Europe, Australasia, and internationally. News Corporation was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in New York, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NWS\"}}`" }, { "id": 40807, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.346329Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T15:59:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T17:30:00.234196Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.576558Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T06:53:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:59:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40466, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.346739Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:59:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T06:53:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:29:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052). If the community prediction on 2025-12-02 06:53:37 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40807, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764002227.828085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29000000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764002227.828085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.29000000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29000000000000004 ], "means": [ 0.31297826086956543 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40806, "title": "Will USB's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "USB's close price rises?", "url_title": "USB's close price rises?", "slug": "usbs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.760206Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T15:34:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T17:05:00.355188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:27.078318Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:14:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:34:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40465, "title": "Will USB's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.760673Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T15:34:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:14:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T17:04:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "U.S. Bancorp is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is USB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:24) is 47.78. You can find more information about U.S. Bancorp at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USB\n\nU.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions in the United States. The company operates through Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking; Consumer and Business Banking; Payment Services; and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. It offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; and lending services, such as traditional credit products and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. The company also provides cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services; and ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers. In addition, it offers asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations; and investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to mutual and other funds. Further, the company provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing services. U.S. Bancorp was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"USB\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of USB. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40806, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764001923.015216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.536 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764001923.015216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.536 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5587681159420289 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 5.0, 9.0, 19.0, 9.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "U.S. Bancorp is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is USB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:24) is 47.78. You can find more information about U.S. Bancorp at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USB\n\nU.S. Bancorp, a financial services holding company, provides various financial services to individuals, businesses, institutional organizations, governmental entities, and other financial institutions in the United States. The company operates through Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking; Consumer and Business Banking; Payment Services; and Treasury and Corporate Support segments. It offers depository services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, and time certificate contracts; and lending services, such as traditional credit products and credit card services, lease financing and import/export trade, asset-backed lending, agricultural finance, and other products. The company also provides cash management, capital markets, and trust and investment management services; and ancillary services comprising capital markets, treasury management, and receivable lock-box collection services to corporate and governmental entity customers. In addition, it offers asset management and fiduciary services for individuals, estates, foundations, business corporations, and charitable organizations; and investment and insurance products to its customers principally within its domestic markets, as well as fund administration services to mutual and other funds. Further, the company provides corporate and purchasing card, and corporate trust services; and credit card services, merchant and ATM processing, mortgage banking, insurance, brokerage and leasing services. U.S. Bancorp was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"USB\"}}`" }, { "id": 40805, "title": "Will EPAM's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "EPAM's close price rises?", "url_title": "EPAM's close price rises?", "slug": "epams-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.178099Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T13:46:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T15:17:00.297577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.488246Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T13:24:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:46:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40464, "title": "Will EPAM's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:26.178647Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:46:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T13:24:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:16:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "EPAM Systems, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EPAM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:18) is 180.98. You can find more information about EPAM Systems, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EPAM\n\nEPAM Systems, Inc. provides digital platform engineering and software development services worldwide. The company offers engineering services, including requirements analysis and platform selection, customization, cross-platform migration, implementation, and integration; cloud services for creating a roadmap to set and refine IT and business goals while identifying new and emerging cloud opportunities; data, analytics and artificial intelligence; customer experience design; and cybersecurity. It also offers operation solutions comprising integrated engineering practices and smart automation services. In addition, the company offers software product and platform development services, which comprise product research, customer experience design and prototyping, program management, component design and integration, full lifecycle software testing, product deployment and end-user customization, performance tuning, product support and maintenance, managed services, as well as cross-platform migration and modernizing legacy platforms. The company serves the financial services; consumer goods, retail and travel; software and Hi-tech; business information and media, life sciences and healthcare; and emerging verticals industries EPAM Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EPAM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EPAM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40805, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763995121.453334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763995121.453334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5304587813620067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 9.0, 20.0, 4.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "EPAM Systems, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EPAM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:18) is 180.98. You can find more information about EPAM Systems, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EPAM\n\nEPAM Systems, Inc. provides digital platform engineering and software development services worldwide. The company offers engineering services, including requirements analysis and platform selection, customization, cross-platform migration, implementation, and integration; cloud services for creating a roadmap to set and refine IT and business goals while identifying new and emerging cloud opportunities; data, analytics and artificial intelligence; customer experience design; and cybersecurity. It also offers operation solutions comprising integrated engineering practices and smart automation services. In addition, the company offers software product and platform development services, which comprise product research, customer experience design and prototyping, program management, component design and integration, full lifecycle software testing, product deployment and end-user customization, performance tuning, product support and maintenance, managed services, as well as cross-platform migration and modernizing legacy platforms. The company serves the financial services; consumer goods, retail and travel; software and Hi-tech; business information and media, life sciences and healthcare; and emerging verticals industries EPAM Systems, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EPAM\"}}`" }, { "id": 40804, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.765157Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T13:45:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T15:16:00.196731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.962610Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:08:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:45:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40463, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.765571Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:45:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:08:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T15:15:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 8.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.08}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 01:08:22 is higher than 8.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40804, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763994761.296833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763994761.296833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.31168100358422934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 8.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.08}}`" }, { "id": 40803, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"OpenAI tops Chatbot Arena at end-2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-openai-tops-chatbot-arena-at-end-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.212381Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T13:09:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T14:40:00.214866Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.547041Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:31:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:09:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40462, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:25.212808Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T13:09:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T01:31:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:39:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall, no style control category of the [Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/) has OpenAI as its organization.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * An OpenAI model has to have the highest Arena Score. Simply having a rank equal to 1 will not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**, as models with different Arena Scores can share rank 1. \n> * A tie for the highest Arena Score will count.\n> * If Chatbot Arena substantially changes its methodology or categories, Metaculus might correspondingly alter the resolution criteria or **annul** this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n> \n> As of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31326,\"question_id\":30960,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 01:31:58 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40803, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763993838.051415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763993838.051415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6525000000000001, 0.3475 ], "means": [ 0.3266274822695034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31326\n- Original question title: Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall, no style control category of the [Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/) has OpenAI as its organization.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * An OpenAI model has to have the highest Arena Score. Simply having a rank equal to 1 will not suffice to resolve this question as **Yes**, as models with different Arena Scores can share rank 1. \n> * A tie for the highest Arena Score will count.\n> * If Chatbot Arena substantially changes its methodology or categories, Metaculus might correspondingly alter the resolution criteria or **annul** this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) is a platform for crowdsourced AI comparisons, hosted by researchers at UC Berkeley. Users are presented with two, anonymous LLMs and are asked to vote for the one whose answers they prefer. These votes determine the scores of the models which are then ranked in a global leaderboard.\n> \n> As of December 29, 2024, Chatbot Arena includes 187 models, ranked by 2,488,392 votes. The top two models in the Overall leaderboard, which encompasses all dialogues, are versions of Gemini by Google, followed by GPT-4o and o1 by OpenAI.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31326,\"question_id\":30960,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 40802, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.741506Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T12:47:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T14:18:00.227634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.951103Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T12:04:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:47:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40461, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.741933Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:47:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T12:04:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T14:17:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 12:04:56 is higher than 16.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40802, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763992132.569575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763992132.569575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.348068100358423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 22.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`" }, { "id": 40801, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 18.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.218394Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T12:03:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T13:34:00.347044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.552039Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T08:56:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:03:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40460, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 18.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:24.218816Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T12:03:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T08:56:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T13:33:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 18.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.18}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). If the community prediction on 2025-12-05 08:56:25 is higher than 18.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40801, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763989398.469947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763989398.469947, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.35417028985507243 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 18.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.18}}`" }, { "id": 40796, "title": "Will BG's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "BG's close price rises?", "url_title": "BG's close price rises?", "slug": "bgs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:21.465597Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T10:37:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T12:08:00.366419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:21.800396Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T04:56:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T10:37:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:59:47.519519Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40455, "title": "Will BG's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:21.466093Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T10:37:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T04:56:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:07:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bunge Global SA is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:26) is 94.58. You can find more information about Bunge Global SA at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BG\n\nBunge Global SA operates as an agribusiness and food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy. The Agribusiness segment purchases, stores, transports, processes, and sells agricultural commodities and commodity products, including oilseeds primarily soybeans, rapeseed, canola, and sunflower seeds, as well as grains comprising wheat and corn; and processes oilseeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. This segment offers its products for animal feed manufacturers, livestock producers, wheat and corn millers, and other oilseed processors, as well as third-party edible oil processing and biofuel companies for biofuel production applications. The Refined and Specialty Oils segment sells packaged and bulk oils and fats that comprise cooking oils, shortenings, margarines, mayonnaise, renewable diesel feedstocks, and other products for baked goods companies, snack food producers, confectioners, restaurant chains, foodservice operators, infant nutrition companies, and other food manufacturers, as well as grocery chains, wholesalers, distributors, and other retailers. This segment also refines and fractionates palm oil, palm kernel oil, coconut oil, and shea butter, and olive oil; and produces specialty ingredients derived from vegetable oils, such as lecithin. The Milling segment provides wheat flours and bakery mixes; corn milling products that comprise dry-milled corn meals and flours, wet-milled masa and flours, and flaking and brewer's grits, as well as soy-fortified corn meal, corn-soy blends, and other products; whole grain and fiber ingredients; die-cut pellets; and non-GMO products. 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It's ticker is BG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:26) is 94.58. You can find more information about Bunge Global SA at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BG\n\nBunge Global SA operates as an agribusiness and food company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Agribusiness, Refined and Specialty Oils, Milling, and Sugar and Bioenergy. The Agribusiness segment purchases, stores, transports, processes, and sells agricultural commodities and commodity products, including oilseeds primarily soybeans, rapeseed, canola, and sunflower seeds, as well as grains comprising wheat and corn; and processes oilseeds into vegetable oils and protein meals. This segment offers its products for animal feed manufacturers, livestock producers, wheat and corn millers, and other oilseed processors, as well as third-party edible oil processing and biofuel companies for biofuel production applications. The Refined and Specialty Oils segment sells packaged and bulk oils and fats that comprise cooking oils, shortenings, margarines, mayonnaise, renewable diesel feedstocks, and other products for baked goods companies, snack food producers, confectioners, restaurant chains, foodservice operators, infant nutrition companies, and other food manufacturers, as well as grocery chains, wholesalers, distributors, and other retailers. This segment also refines and fractionates palm oil, palm kernel oil, coconut oil, and shea butter, and olive oil; and produces specialty ingredients derived from vegetable oils, such as lecithin. The Milling segment provides wheat flours and bakery mixes; corn milling products that comprise dry-milled corn meals and flours, wet-milled masa and flours, and flaking and brewer's grits, as well as soy-fortified corn meal, corn-soy blends, and other products; whole grain and fiber ingredients; die-cut pellets; and non-GMO products. The Sugar and Bioenergy segment produces sugar and ethanol; and generates electricity from burning sugarcane bagasse. 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It's ticker is VRTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:35) is 426.76. You can find more information about Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRTX\n\nVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis (CF). It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor. The company also develops CASGEVY for the treatment of sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia; JOURNAVX for the treatment of acute pain in adults; VX-522, a CFTR mRNA therapeutic designed to treat the underlying cause of CF, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; inaxaplin for the treatment of APOL1-mediated kidney disease which is in single Phase 2; VX-880 and VX-264, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes; VX-670 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1; and VX-407, a small molecule corrector for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Further, it sells the products to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, the company has collaborations with CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Moderna, Inc.; and Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VRTX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of VRTX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is VRTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:35) is 426.76. You can find more information about Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRTX\n\nVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis (CF). It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor. The company also develops CASGEVY for the treatment of sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia; JOURNAVX for the treatment of acute pain in adults; VX-522, a CFTR mRNA therapeutic designed to treat the underlying cause of CF, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; inaxaplin for the treatment of APOL1-mediated kidney disease which is in single Phase 2; VX-880 and VX-264, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes; VX-670 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1; and VX-407, a small molecule corrector for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Further, it sells the products to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, the company has collaborations with CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Moderna, Inc.; and Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. 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"2025-12-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA), the world governing body of association football (also known as soccer), has announced its intention to award a [Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/peace-prize-award-football-unites-the-world-infantino), \"to reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace and by doing so have united people across the world.\" The winner of the award is planned to be announced on December 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C., at the [draw for the 2026 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw), which is to be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.\n\nFIFA President Gianni Infantino calls U.S. President Donald Trump a [close friend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o), and many have [speculated](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o) that the FIFA Peace Prize will be awarded to Trump, particularly after Trump was passed over for the more well-known [Nobel Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31089/trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is announced to be the winner of the first FIFA Peace Prize.", "fine_print": "If multiple winners are announced, this question will still resolve as **Yes** as long as Donald Trump is specifically named among the list of winners. If no Peace Prize winner is announced before April 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 40777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764276806.236957, "end_time": 1764786635.486, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764276806.236957, "end_time": 1764786635.486, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7475695155792454 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8330381715449309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA), the world governing body of association football (also known as soccer), has announced its intention to award a [Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/peace-prize-award-football-unites-the-world-infantino), \"to reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace and by doing so have united people across the world.\" The winner of the award is planned to be announced on December 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C., at the [draw for the 2026 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw), which is to be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.\n\nFIFA President Gianni Infantino calls U.S. President Donald Trump a [close friend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o), and many have [speculated](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o) that the FIFA Peace Prize will be awarded to Trump, particularly after Trump was passed over for the more well-known [Nobel Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31089/trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029/)." }, { "id": 40776, "title": "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-any-ai-achieve-94-on-gpqa-diamond-benchmark-leaderboard-by-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-20T23:28:13.079799Z", "published_at": "2025-11-21T00:08:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T20:33:52.107419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-21T00:08:53.118064Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-22T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T02:31:19.031636Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T02:31:19.031636Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40435, "title": "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-20T23:28:13.080225Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T00:08:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T00:08:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n\nAs of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n\n| Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n| ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n| **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n| **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n| **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n| **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n\nAcording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n\n> The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n\n> We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n\n> Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n\nAn example of a question is:\n\n> *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n\n> *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n\n> *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.", "fine_print": "At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n\nPlease note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n\nAdditionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />", "post_id": 40776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764275621.636129, "end_time": 1764496262.507, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764275621.636129, "end_time": 1764496262.507, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.695086258545046 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.7512932451656251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1588593721215967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n\nAs of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n\n| Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n| ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n| **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n| **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n| **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n| **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n\nAcording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n\n> The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n\n> We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n\n> Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n\nAn example of a question is:\n\n> *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n\n> *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n\n> *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*" }, { "id": 40771, "title": "Will George Conway, vocal critic of Donald Trump, announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "short_title": "Will George Conway announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "url_title": "Will George Conway announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "slug": "will-george-conway-announce-a-run-for-the-us-congress-before-april-2-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-20T01:08:50.649494Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T01:11:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T18:55:01.877836Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-20T01:14:28.395794Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T02:31:19.031636Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T02:31:19.031636Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40425, "title": "Will George Conway, vocal critic of Donald Trump, announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-20T01:08:50.649907Z", "open_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T01:11:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T01:11:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times (November 19, 2025) [George Conway, a Vocal Foe of Trump, Eyes Congressional Run](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/us/politics/george-conway-congressional-run.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2U8.HbBc.yonWJCofFbrJ\\&smid=url-share):\n\n> George T. Conway III, the former conservative lawyer and one of President Trump’s fiercest critics, is moving closer to announcing a run for Congress in one of Manhattan’s wealthiest and bluest districts, pitching himself to potential donors as a top attorney who does not “have any more effs to give.”\n\n> Mr. Conway, 62, who currently lives in Bethesda, Md., has hired the Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg to work on a budding campaign to succeed Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York, who is retiring. He is also scouting apartments in the district where he lived and worked for years before relocating to Washington in 2017 when his wife at the time, Kellyanne Conway, joined the first Trump administration as a senior White House official. (The Conways divorced in 2023.)\n\n> Mr. Conway outlined his pitch on Tuesday night at a private virtual event for paid members of Democracy Docket, the media outlet founded by Marc Elias, the Democratic attorney.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if George T. Conway III announces his candidacy for the US Congress from any district in New York State before April 2, 2026. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764096891.35852, "end_time": 1764407696.057, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764096891.35852, "end_time": 1764407696.057, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7131916028226272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2905243231860233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (November 19, 2025) [George Conway, a Vocal Foe of Trump, Eyes Congressional Run](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/us/politics/george-conway-congressional-run.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2U8.HbBc.yonWJCofFbrJ\\&smid=url-share):\n\n> George T. Conway III, the former conservative lawyer and one of President Trump’s fiercest critics, is moving closer to announcing a run for Congress in one of Manhattan’s wealthiest and bluest districts, pitching himself to potential donors as a top attorney who does not “have any more effs to give.”\n\n> Mr. Conway, 62, who currently lives in Bethesda, Md., has hired the Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg to work on a budding campaign to succeed Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York, who is retiring. He is also scouting apartments in the district where he lived and worked for years before relocating to Washington in 2017 when his wife at the time, Kellyanne Conway, joined the first Trump administration as a senior White House official. (The Conways divorced in 2023.)\n\n> Mr. Conway outlined his pitch on Tuesday night at a private virtual event for paid members of Democracy Docket, the media outlet founded by Marc Elias, the Democratic attorney." }, { "id": 40767, "title": "Will Magnificent Seven shares crash before 2027?", "short_title": "Mag 7 shares crash before 2027?", "url_title": "Mag 7 shares crash before 2027?", "slug": "mag-7-shares-crash-before-2027", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-19T16:16:43.741309Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T20:23:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T20:43:24.955943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-26T20:24:02.596378Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-27T20:23:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40421, "title": "Will Magnificent Seven shares crash before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-19T16:16:43.741696Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T20:23:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-01T20:23:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T20:23:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_\\(stocks\\)). Their strong performance over recent years has driven equity-market concentration [to multi-decade highs](https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/gb/institutional/insights/the-rise-of-the-magnificent-7-concentration-risk-versus-earnings-power/). Investment commenters have been worried for some time that the market, especially AI stocks, [may be re-running the dotcom bubble](https://www.ft.com/content/f8cd239e-287c-4e3c-bfae-8c4acec7ac34). The S\\&P's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio [is approaching the dotcom peak](https://www.ft.com/content/ae4d7961-cf59-4369-8e64-8a9c9da956d1), primarily driven by AI companies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close more than 50% below their all-time high close price.\n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices (as adjusted for any stock splits) available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) under the 'Historical Data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data. It will not use intra-day data.", "fine_print": "For example, if Stock X's all-time high close price is \\$1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below \\$500.\n\nA Yes resolution requires the stocks of at least four of the Magnificent Seven to close down >50% from their all-time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) but counts as only one out of the seven companies. Alphabet stock will be considered to have crashed if *either* of its two traded share classes falls below 50% of its all-time high.", "post_id": 40767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_\\(stocks\\)). Their strong performance over recent years has driven equity-market concentration [to multi-decade highs](https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/gb/institutional/insights/the-rise-of-the-magnificent-7-concentration-risk-versus-earnings-power/). Investment commenters have been worried for some time that the market, especially AI stocks, [may be re-running the dotcom bubble](https://www.ft.com/content/f8cd239e-287c-4e3c-bfae-8c4acec7ac34). The S\\&P's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio [is approaching the dotcom peak](https://www.ft.com/content/ae4d7961-cf59-4369-8e64-8a9c9da956d1), primarily driven by AI companies." }, { "id": 40761, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "short_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "url_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "slug": "more-canadian-mp-defections-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.453270Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T17:00:00.274052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.697378Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40415, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.453689Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40727,\"question_id\":40342}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 17, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, a member of the Canadian House of Commons resigns, changes party, or becomes an independent.", "fine_print": "If an MP dies or otherwise leaves office without resigning, that will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 40761, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763657471.27644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.262 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763657471.27644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.262 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37207679405374616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40727,\"question_id\":40342}}`" }, { "id": 40760, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "short_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "url_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "slug": "tehran-evacuation-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:48.757611Z", "published_at": "2025-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:00:02.819716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.118348Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40414, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:48.758010Z", "open_time": "2025-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40629,\"question_id\":40225}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian government orders an evacuation of at least 100,000 inhabitants of Tehran County before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* Any Iranian governmental authority with jurisdiction over Tehran County will qualify as the Iranian government for the purpose this question.", "post_id": 40760, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763571591.947597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07899999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763571591.947597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07899999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1364254788029509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 6.0, 12.0, 4.0, 14.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40629,\"question_id\":40225}}`" }, { "id": 40750, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "short_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "url_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "slug": "peoples-party-absolute-majority-in-extremadura-in-2025", "author_id": 177670, "author_username": "CivicObserver", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-17T11:18:41.513278Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T03:21:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T19:26:53.056084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-25T03:22:06.871919Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-26T03:21:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40404, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "created_at": "2025-11-17T11:18:41.513695Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T03:21:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-19T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, according to the [official final results](https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/elecciones/autonomicas/extremadura) of the 2025 regional elections in Extremadura, Spain, the People’s Party (PP) led by María Guardiola wins at least 33 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura, thereby achieving an absolute majority without the need for coalition partners or external support.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if the PP wins fewer than 33 seats, regardless of any post-election agreements, coalitions or confidence-and-supply arrangements.\n\nThe resolution will be based solely on the final official results published by the relevant electoral authorities. Recounts or corrections will be taken into account only if they appear in the certified final tally.", "fine_print": "If the election does not take place as scheduled, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 40750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats." }, { "id": 40744, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "short_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "url_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "slug": "will-nvidias-stock-price-close-220-or-180-on-any-day-before-nov-22-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-15T19:35:54.240145Z", "published_at": "2025-11-15T22:47:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T00:18:00.399892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-15T19:35:54.487239Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-22T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-15T22:47:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40386, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-15T19:35:54.240671Z", "open_time": "2025-11-15T22:47:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-22T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40703,\"question_id\":40305}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nvidia’s stock closes at greater than or equal to \\$220.00 or less than or equal to \\$180.00 for any regular trading day after November 10, 2025 and before November 22, 2025, according to [<u>Yahoo Finance</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/) or (if necessary) alternative [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will adjust to account for the split. Typically this is done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor. ", "post_id": 40744, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763250696.041152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5874999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763250696.041152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5874999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.46819246918022706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40703,\"question_id\":40305}}`" } ] }
