Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6579, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41212, "title": "Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "short_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "url_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "slug": "nasa-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-before-2030", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-17T12:21:05.772161Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T01:29:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T12:52:07.608294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T01:29:14.592461Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-20T01:29:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40926, "title": "Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-17T12:21:05.772604Z", "open_time": "2025-12-20T01:29:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T01:29:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T01:29:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2:\n\n> It is the policy of the United States to:\n> (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources;\n> (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and\n> (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets.\n\nOn August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030. \n\n> Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly.\n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), \"questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals.\"\n\nThe idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \\$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be [\"the only technological option available\" - \"it’s ambitious, but definitely possible\"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a fully built nuclear reactor is located anywhere on the Moon's surface and that NASA is fully or partially responsible for this.", "fine_print": "The nuclear reactor does not have to be operational, it only needs to be fully built and ready for testing, testing does not need to have been commenced.\n\nThe resolution will be based on [official NASA communications](https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "short_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "post_id": 41212, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766839917.303416, "end_time": 1774001927.06, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766839917.303416, "end_time": 1774001927.06, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.06812140069070885 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.83201104243998, 0.6260206070994441, 0.07533680859673718, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2:\n\n> It is the policy of the United States to:\n> (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources;\n> (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and\n> (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets.\n\nOn August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030. \n\n> Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly.\n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), \"questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals.\"\n\nThe idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \\$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be [\"the only technological option available\" - \"it’s ambitious, but definitely possible\"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/)." }, { "id": 41206, "title": "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-anthropic-file-an-s-1-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-15T23:19:19.237344Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T23:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T14:02:36.590450Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-15T23:25:24.579741Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-17T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T14:02:36.817402Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T14:02:36.817402Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40916, "title": "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-15T23:19:19.237702Z", "open_time": "2025-12-17T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T23:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T23:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n\n> Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n\n> For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n\nAccording to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n\n> Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766844146.239711, "end_time": 1766961214.094, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766844146.239711, "end_time": 1766961214.094, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7303951456074069 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7340267287201618, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3600349976368379 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n\n> Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n\n> For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n\nAccording to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n\n> Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop." }, { "id": 41205, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-march-15-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:29.728227Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T08:47:26.965345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-16T01:02:52.301985Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-16T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T14:02:36.817402Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T14:02:36.817402Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40915, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:29.728598Z", "open_time": "2025-12-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T19:36:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T19:36:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth—expected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-end—is matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before March 15, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "post_id": 41205, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766825236.254855, "end_time": 1766925901.14, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766825236.254855, "end_time": 1766925901.14, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.2702934096323878 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth—expected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-end—is matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure." }, { "id": 41193, "title": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "short_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "url_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "slug": "i-safety-law-enacted-in-the-us-in-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-14T21:14:41.480667Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T16:54:55.300000Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:27:12.253714Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", 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"edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40912, "title": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-14T21:14:41.481093Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment. \n\nPresident Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: \"\\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.\" \n\nBiden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests.\n\nSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on \"a single national framework\" regarding development of AI, \"which makes sure we can win this race.\"\n\nOne bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States federal government enacts a law or executive order, after December 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, which introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models.\n\nFor purpose of this question, an “AI safety requirement” is a requirement intended to prevent material harm caused by an AI system's behavior or reasonably foreseeable misuse, such as risk assessment, safety evaluations, red-teaming, deployment constraints, monitoring, or access controls. It does not include requirements about privacy, copyright, or federal procurement.", "fine_print": "\"Private entity\" is [defined](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/6/1501#15_A) as \"any person or private group, organization, proprietorship, partnership, trust, cooperative, corporation, or other commercial or nonprofit entity, including an officer, employee, or agent thereof.\" It does not include governments, government agencies or departments, or foreign powers.\n\nAn example of an executive order that would count is [EO 14110](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14110) signed October 30, 2023, which (among other things) ordered the Secretary of Commerce to require developers of certain advanced AI models to conduct red-teaming tests \"to enable deployment of safe, secure, and trustworthy systems.\"\n\nAn example of an EO that would not count is [Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/) signed December 11, 2025, which does not introduce new AI safety requirements on the developers or deployers of AI models and instead says, \"To win, United States AI companies must be free to innovate without cumbersome regulation.\" Another that would not count is [EO 13960](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/08/2020-27065/promoting-the-use-of-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence-in-the-federal-government), signed December 3, 2020, because it specifically imposes requirements on government agencies but imposes no new requirements on private entities developing or deploying AI models.\n\nAn executive order is [defined](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/publications/teaching-legal-docs/what-is-an-executive-order-/) as any presidential document with an executive order number published in the Federal Register. Orders that do not have such a number, such as administrative orders or presidential proclamations, will not count for this question.", "short_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "post_id": 41193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment. \n\nPresident Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: \"\\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.\" \n\nBiden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests.\n\nSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on \"a single national framework\" regarding development of AI, \"which makes sure we can win this race.\"\n\nOne bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety." }, { "id": 41190, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "short_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "url_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "slug": "agi-transition-beneficial-for-humanity", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:37.997748Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T00:11:24.278840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T06:01:05.535209Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T05:58:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T04:26:34.994381Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T04:26:34.994381Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40909, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "created_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:37.998212Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T05:58:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T05:58:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T05:58:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\n\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.", "resolution_criteria": "A world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\n\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\n\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\n\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question will resolve as \\**Ambiguous.*", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "post_id": 41190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766794274.045635, "end_time": 1767022978.315, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766794274.045635, "end_time": 1767022978.315, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6011026835972433 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\n\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals." }, { "id": 41178, "title": "Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036 and successfully land?", "short_title": "Humans sent to Mars before 2036?", "url_title": "Humans sent to Mars before 2036?", "slug": "humans-sent-to-mars-before-2036", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T17:42:01.924877Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T13:55:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-26T13:28:34.744306Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T13:56:06.883608Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T13:55:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40905, "title": "Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036 and successfully land?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T17:42:01.925328Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T13:55:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T13:55:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T13:55:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will humans land on Mars by 2035?*\n\nHuman missions to Mars have long been a [<u>goal of both NASA</u>](https://www.space.com/nasa-aims-for-2035-mars-landings-iac.html?) and commercial space companies, but achieving a crewed landing on the Red Planet remains a massive technical, financial, and logistical challenge. NASA’s [<u>“Human Path to Mars”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?) roadmap envisions sending astronauts to Mars in the 2030s, relying on technologies such as Orion capsules, heavy-lift rockets, in-situ resource utilization, and lunar infrastructure as stepping stones.[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nNASA’s most recent [<u>20-year Mars Exploration Plan (2024–2044)</u>](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?) highlights key preparatory work in the early 2030s, including identifying safe landing sites, characterizing Martian ice-rich regions, and studying atmospheric conditions like dust storms which could affect both landing and takeoff.[ ](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)While the plan outlines scientific priorities and risk mitigation, it does *not* definitively commit to a crewed landing by 2035.\n\nOn the commercial front, [<u>SpaceX continues to push an ambitious timeline for Mars</u>](https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars). Elon Musk and company have [<u>publicly floated first crewed Starship flights to Mars in the late 2020s</u>](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?), depending on the success of uncrewed test missions and the build-out of infrastructure.[ ](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)However, these projections remain highly speculative — [<u>dependent on technological breakthroughs, funding, and regulatory approvals</u>](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/humanity-could-settle-mars-by-2055-elon-musk-says?).\n\nOutside the U.S., several national space agencies have articulated long-term human Mars ambitions, though nearly all extend beyond the 2030s:\n\n* <u>China (</u>[<u>CNSA</u>](https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/)<u>)</u> – China has announced intentions to [<u>send taikonauts to Mars in the 2040s</u>](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents/Research/Space/2025-05-05%20The%20Real%20Space%20Race%20China%20Will%20Send%20a%20Crew%20to%20Orbit%20Mars%20by%202050.pdf?ver=5pT8gZsloeqXRiv3F43GnA%3D%3D), with an initial crewed landing followed by a surface base by the 2050s.\n* <u>European Space Agency (</u>[<u>ESA</u>](https://www.esa.int/)<u>)</u> – [<u>ESA leadership has discussed pursuing a human Mars mission around 2040</u>](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_Strategy_2040), dependent on international partnerships and long-term funding.\n* <u>Russia (</u>[<u>Roscosmos</u>](https://www.iafastro.org/membership/all-members/roscosmos.html)<u>)</u> – Russia has [<u>floated timelines for a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s or early 2040s</u>](https://tass.com/science/1177101), although current geopolitical and budgetary constraints have cast doubt on these plans.\n* <u>India (</u>[<u>ISRO</u>](https://www.isro.gov.in/)<u>) </u>– India’s [<u>Mars ambitions</u>](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2611896/amp) are phased: precursor missions in the 2030s–2040s, with a possible human Mars mission closer to the 2060s.\n* <u>United Arab Emirates (UAE)</u> – The [<u>UAE’s Mars 2117</u>](https://www.uae2117marsexpedition.com/) initiative targets a long-term, collaborative plan to build a human settlement on Mars by 2117.\n\nThere is also skepticism from independent analyses. For example, a report from 2019 argued that a crewed Mars landing in the early 2030s is not feasible under existing U.S. deep-space budgets, citing [<u>huge costs for propulsion systems, surface infrastructure, launch vehicles, and life-support systems</u>](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?).[ ](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Given the scale, complexity, and risk, many experts view 2035 as an optimistic target rather than a sure one.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if\n\n* a crewed mission is launched from Earth before January 1, 2036\n* the same mission lands on the surface of Mars.", "fine_print": "* The date the mission lands to the surface of Mars is irrelevant, as long as it has launched from the Earth before January 1, 2036.\n* To qualify for this question, at least one member of the crew must be alive during and for at least 1 minute following their landing on Mars, hard impacts or crashes will not resolve this question.\n* For the purpose of this question, landing refers the human's spacecraft or spacesuit physically touching the surface of Mars.", "short_title": "Humans sent to Mars before 2036?", "post_id": 41178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766755703.966194, "end_time": 1768630667.717, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766755703.966194, "end_time": 1768630667.717, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2883779339024129 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.8241940524348137, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3390646866665474, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9496748829799007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7501307115823497, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will humans land on Mars by 2035?*\n\nHuman missions to Mars have long been a [<u>goal of both NASA</u>](https://www.space.com/nasa-aims-for-2035-mars-landings-iac.html?) and commercial space companies, but achieving a crewed landing on the Red Planet remains a massive technical, financial, and logistical challenge. NASA’s [<u>“Human Path to Mars”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?) roadmap envisions sending astronauts to Mars in the 2030s, relying on technologies such as Orion capsules, heavy-lift rockets, in-situ resource utilization, and lunar infrastructure as stepping stones.[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nNASA’s most recent [<u>20-year Mars Exploration Plan (2024–2044)</u>](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?) highlights key preparatory work in the early 2030s, including identifying safe landing sites, characterizing Martian ice-rich regions, and studying atmospheric conditions like dust storms which could affect both landing and takeoff.[ ](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)While the plan outlines scientific priorities and risk mitigation, it does *not* definitively commit to a crewed landing by 2035.\n\nOn the commercial front, [<u>SpaceX continues to push an ambitious timeline for Mars</u>](https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars). Elon Musk and company have [<u>publicly floated first crewed Starship flights to Mars in the late 2020s</u>](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?), depending on the success of uncrewed test missions and the build-out of infrastructure.[ ](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)However, these projections remain highly speculative — [<u>dependent on technological breakthroughs, funding, and regulatory approvals</u>](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/humanity-could-settle-mars-by-2055-elon-musk-says?).\n\nOutside the U.S., several national space agencies have articulated long-term human Mars ambitions, though nearly all extend beyond the 2030s:\n\n* <u>China (</u>[<u>CNSA</u>](https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/)<u>)</u> – China has announced intentions to [<u>send taikonauts to Mars in the 2040s</u>](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents/Research/Space/2025-05-05%20The%20Real%20Space%20Race%20China%20Will%20Send%20a%20Crew%20to%20Orbit%20Mars%20by%202050.pdf?ver=5pT8gZsloeqXRiv3F43GnA%3D%3D), with an initial crewed landing followed by a surface base by the 2050s.\n* <u>European Space Agency (</u>[<u>ESA</u>](https://www.esa.int/)<u>)</u> – [<u>ESA leadership has discussed pursuing a human Mars mission around 2040</u>](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_Strategy_2040), dependent on international partnerships and long-term funding.\n* <u>Russia (</u>[<u>Roscosmos</u>](https://www.iafastro.org/membership/all-members/roscosmos.html)<u>)</u> – Russia has [<u>floated timelines for a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s or early 2040s</u>](https://tass.com/science/1177101), although current geopolitical and budgetary constraints have cast doubt on these plans.\n* <u>India (</u>[<u>ISRO</u>](https://www.isro.gov.in/)<u>) </u>– India’s [<u>Mars ambitions</u>](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2611896/amp) are phased: precursor missions in the 2030s–2040s, with a possible human Mars mission closer to the 2060s.\n* <u>United Arab Emirates (UAE)</u> – The [<u>UAE’s Mars 2117</u>](https://www.uae2117marsexpedition.com/) initiative targets a long-term, collaborative plan to build a human settlement on Mars by 2117.\n\nThere is also skepticism from independent analyses. For example, a report from 2019 argued that a crewed Mars landing in the early 2030s is not feasible under existing U.S. deep-space budgets, citing [<u>huge costs for propulsion systems, surface infrastructure, launch vehicles, and life-support systems</u>](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?).[ ](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Given the scale, complexity, and risk, many experts view 2035 as an optimistic target rather than a sure one." }, { "id": 41176, "title": "Will the England national men's team win a major international football title before the release of The Elder Scrolls VI?", "short_title": "England football team to win international trophy before Elder Scrolls 6?", "url_title": "England football team to win international trophy before Elder Scrolls 6?", "slug": "england-football-team-to-win-international-trophy-before-elder-scrolls-6", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T15:14:59.012928Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T19:18:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T12:54:41.554604Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-15T19:19:06.019228Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-16T19:18:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40903, "title": "Will the England national men's team win a major international football title before the release of The Elder Scrolls VI?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T15:14:59.013587Z", "open_time": "2025-12-16T19:18:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T19:18:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T19:18:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2018, Bethesda announced they had started working on [The Elder Scrolls VI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkFdqqyI8y4). Since then, other projects have delayed production and there's been little news about the game, making TES VI one of the most important vaporware of the last ten years.\n\nIn 1966, England won the World Cup. Almost 60 years later and they have [mostly had mediocre results](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) but the nation has recently had renewed optimism with two [Euro finals](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) in a row and a [22 undefeated games streak](https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/england-hungary-result-score-nations-league-2022-b2094049.html). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if after 2025, the [English national men's football team](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_national_football_team) wins the FIFA World Cup or the UEFA European Championship before [The Elder Scrolls VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls_VI) is released.", "fine_print": "If a different name is chosen for The Elder Scrolls VI, that game will still be considered as the same game for this question.", "short_title": "England football team to win international trophy before Elder Scrolls 6?", "post_id": 41176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766840071.30642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766840071.30642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.20410390685076196 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2018, Bethesda announced they had started working on [The Elder Scrolls VI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkFdqqyI8y4). Since then, other projects have delayed production and there's been little news about the game, making TES VI one of the most important vaporware of the last ten years.\n\nIn 1966, England won the World Cup. Almost 60 years later and they have [mostly had mediocre results](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) but the nation has recently had renewed optimism with two [Euro finals](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) in a row and a [22 undefeated games streak](https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/england-hungary-result-score-nations-league-2022-b2094049.html). " }, { "id": 41174, "title": "Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?", "short_title": "Tridentine Mass restrictions loosened in 2026?", "url_title": "Tridentine Mass restrictions loosened in 2026?", "slug": "tridentine-mass-restrictions-loosened-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T12:32:12.340123Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T16:58:10.385532Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:26:55.621102Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40902, "title": "Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T12:32:12.340506Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Within the Catholic Church, a [Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_in_the_Catholic_Church) is a ceremony where a priest conducts a series of prayers, chants, and rituals in which bread and wine are said to become the body and blood of Jesus.\n\nOriginally codified in 1570, the [Traditional Latin Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tridentine_Mass), also known as the Tridentine Mass or Traditional Rite was historically the most common [liturgy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_liturgy) within the Catholic Church.\n\nIn 1969, following its [promulgation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation_\\(Catholic_canon_law\\)), the [Mass of Paul VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_of_Paul_VI), also known as the Novus Ordo largely displaced the Tridentine Mass, with it becoming the most commonly used mass today.\n\nAlthough fading from its past prominence, the Tridentine Mass remains a key point among [Traditionalist Catholics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionalist_Catholicism) with significant parts of the Church still practicing it regularly.\n\nOn July 16, 2021, [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Francis) released the [Traditionis custodes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionis_custodes) an apostolic letter that introduces significant restrictions on the use of the Tridentine Mass. With the election of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV), speculation has emerged of a possible loosening of restrictions, with him so far indicating a softening but not a revocation of the changes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass are loosened by the Holy See of the Catholic Church during 2026.", "fine_print": "A loosening of restrictions is an official change that has any of the following effects:\n\n* Reduces required permissions or conditions for priests or bishops to conduct or authorize the Traditional Latin Mass, for example by removing Rome's required approval for new priests, parish churches, or personal parishes.\n* Expands the types of churches or locations where the Traditional Latin Mass may be conducted.\n* Allows the creation of new groups dedicated primarily to the Traditional Latin Mass.\n\nThe change must apply to at least a category of dioceses, institutes, or faithful, not only to one specifically named person or community.\n\nThis question will not consider informal or non-binding changes, such as internal guidance or a mere change in how generously individual dispensations are granted.", "short_title": "Tridentine Mass restrictions loosened in 2026?", "post_id": 41174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Within the Catholic Church, a [Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_in_the_Catholic_Church) is a ceremony where a priest conducts a series of prayers, chants, and rituals in which bread and wine are said to become the body and blood of Jesus.\n\nOriginally codified in 1570, the [Traditional Latin Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tridentine_Mass), also known as the Tridentine Mass or Traditional Rite was historically the most common [liturgy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_liturgy) within the Catholic Church.\n\nIn 1969, following its [promulgation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation_\\(Catholic_canon_law\\)), the [Mass of Paul VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_of_Paul_VI), also known as the Novus Ordo largely displaced the Tridentine Mass, with it becoming the most commonly used mass today.\n\nAlthough fading from its past prominence, the Tridentine Mass remains a key point among [Traditionalist Catholics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionalist_Catholicism) with significant parts of the Church still practicing it regularly.\n\nOn July 16, 2021, [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Francis) released the [Traditionis custodes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionis_custodes) an apostolic letter that introduces significant restrictions on the use of the Tridentine Mass. With the election of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV), speculation has emerged of a possible loosening of restrictions, with him so far indicating a softening but not a revocation of the changes." }, { "id": 41173, "title": "Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?", "short_title": "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?", "url_title": "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?", "slug": "eu-age-verification-on-social-mediaai-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T11:38:26.485545Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:08.015810Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:26:39.446212Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40901, "title": "Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T11:38:26.485961Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n\nAlthough carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n\nFacing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n\nNonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.", "short_title": "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?", "post_id": 41173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n\nAlthough carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n\nFacing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n\nNonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws." }, { "id": 41172, "title": "Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?", "short_title": "FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?", "url_title": "FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?", "slug": "fda-approved-psilocybin-therapy-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T10:54:05.899394Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:00:07.694531Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:26:21.180429Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40900, "title": "Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T10:54:05.899833Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin) is a hallucinogenic drug that is naturally produced in over 200 species of [mushroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_mushroom). [Illegal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_psilocybin_mushrooms) in most of the world, the drug has been studied as a possible treatment for various psychiatric disorders, including depression, OCD, and PTSD.\n\nAlthough approved for medical use in countries such as [Australia and Czechia](https://balkaninsight.com/2025/07/02/psychedelic-healing-czechia-opens-mind-to-magic-mushroom-therapy/) and even fully legal in countries such as [Jamaica](https://www.vice.com/en/article/jamaica-magic-mushrooms-legal-loophole/), the United States FDA has so far [declined to approve](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) psilocybin treatment.\n\nPsilocybin is illegal on the [federal level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) and classified as a Schedule 1 substance, but has been decriminalized and legalized for medical use in various states, while the FDA may approve treatments regardless of its Schedule 1 status.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US Food and Drug Administration approves a psilocybin treatment during 2026.", "fine_print": "This question only refers to market authorisation for medical treatment in humans, including emergency use authorisations.\n\nFor purposes of this question, a \"psilocybin treatment\" is defined as any drug with psilocybin as its active ingredient.", "short_title": "FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?", "post_id": 41172, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin) is a hallucinogenic drug that is naturally produced in over 200 species of [mushroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_mushroom). [Illegal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_psilocybin_mushrooms) in most of the world, the drug has been studied as a possible treatment for various psychiatric disorders, including depression, OCD, and PTSD.\n\nAlthough approved for medical use in countries such as [Australia and Czechia](https://balkaninsight.com/2025/07/02/psychedelic-healing-czechia-opens-mind-to-magic-mushroom-therapy/) and even fully legal in countries such as [Jamaica](https://www.vice.com/en/article/jamaica-magic-mushrooms-legal-loophole/), the United States FDA has so far [declined to approve](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) psilocybin treatment.\n\nPsilocybin is illegal on the [federal level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) and classified as a Schedule 1 substance, but has been decriminalized and legalized for medical use in various states, while the FDA may approve treatments regardless of its Schedule 1 status." }, { "id": 41171, "title": "Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026?", "short_title": "Will Maduro leave office in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Maduro leave office in 2026?", "slug": "will-maduro-leave-office-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T09:56:19.840597Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:01:09.512571Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:25:59.574491Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40899, "title": "Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T09:56:19.841011Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship and during his tenure, while Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power.\n\nFollowing Maduro's ascension to presidency in the [2013 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Maduro has faced calls to be removed from both internal opposition leaders and from foreign countries such as the United States. While substantial sections of both internal and external opponents backed [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) as the legitimate leader of Venezuela from 2019 to 2023.\n\nFollowing the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and especially after Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up further, with [various threats](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) made against Venezuela, while what resembles U.S preparations for war against Venezuela have been initiated. Venezuela has responded by [mobilizing militia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) and publicly announcing their preparation for an invasion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.", "fine_print": "If Venezuela replaces or changes the position of President of Venezuela, this question will only resolve as **Yes** if Nicolás Maduro is no longer Head of State or Head of Government.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Venezuela refers to the government that controls the majority of internationally recognised Venezuelan territory. If no government controls the majority of internationally recognised Venezuelan territory, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "Will Maduro leave office in 2026?", "post_id": 41171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 112, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship and during his tenure, while Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power.\n\nFollowing Maduro's ascension to presidency in the [2013 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Maduro has faced calls to be removed from both internal opposition leaders and from foreign countries such as the United States. While substantial sections of both internal and external opponents backed [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) as the legitimate leader of Venezuela from 2019 to 2023.\n\nFollowing the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and especially after Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up further, with [various threats](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) made against Venezuela, while what resembles U.S preparations for war against Venezuela have been initiated. Venezuela has responded by [mobilizing militia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) and publicly announcing their preparation for an invasion." }, { "id": 41169, "title": "Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?", "short_title": "Gene editing for new condition in 2026?", "url_title": "Gene editing for new condition in 2026?", "slug": "gene-editing-for-new-condition-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T08:54:51.947927Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:00:43.995987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:25:27.483028Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40897, "title": "Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T08:54:51.948287Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is genetic engineering technique which allows the genomes of living organisms to be modified. Discovered in the 2000s and seeing further development during the 2010s and 2020s, the technology has undergone medical trials for conditions as varied as cancer, diabetes, AIDS and blindness, while also being used to create gene edited food.\n\nAlthough numerous trials have taken place, only two conditions have had CRISPR treatments be approved by the FDA (US), MHRA (UK) or EMA (EU). Both conditions being inherited blood disorders, the same treatment was separately approved for both [sickle cell disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease) and [beta thalassemia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_thalassemia), in which [hematopoietic stem cells](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hematopoietic_stem_cell) are removed from the body, edited using CRISPR to disrupt repression of [fetal hemoglobin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetal_hemoglobin) production, and then infused back into the patient.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the US FDA, UK MHRA, or the EU Commission authorizes the use or sale of a therapy whose primary mechanism directly editing the patient's genomic DNA for any human condition other than sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia before January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": " Authorizations include emergency or temporary authorizations.", "short_title": "Gene editing for new condition in 2026?", "post_id": 41169, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is genetic engineering technique which allows the genomes of living organisms to be modified. Discovered in the 2000s and seeing further development during the 2010s and 2020s, the technology has undergone medical trials for conditions as varied as cancer, diabetes, AIDS and blindness, while also being used to create gene edited food.\n\nAlthough numerous trials have taken place, only two conditions have had CRISPR treatments be approved by the FDA (US), MHRA (UK) or EMA (EU). Both conditions being inherited blood disorders, the same treatment was separately approved for both [sickle cell disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease) and [beta thalassemia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_thalassemia), in which [hematopoietic stem cells](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hematopoietic_stem_cell) are removed from the body, edited using CRISPR to disrupt repression of [fetal hemoglobin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetal_hemoglobin) production, and then infused back into the patient." }, { "id": 41168, "title": "Will a UFC mixed martial arts event occur at the White House in 2026?", "short_title": "Will a UFC event occur at the White House in 2026?", "url_title": "Will a UFC event occur at the White House in 2026?", "slug": "will-a-ufc-event-occur-at-the-white-house-in-2026", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T04:05:24.540071Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T12:46:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-17T23:28:52.560919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T12:47:32.567438Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T12:46:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40896, "title": "Will a UFC mixed martial arts event occur at the White House in 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T04:05:24.540496Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T12:46:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T12:46:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T12:46:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Ultimate Fighting Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship) (UFC) is a mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion founded in 1993. The UFC has held [over 700 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UFC_events) through the end of 2025. UFC events have taken place in various locations, with events in 2025 having taken place in the US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China, Australia, the UK, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Azerbaijan. In July 2025, [US President Donald Trump suggested that a UFC event would be held at the White House](https://www.mmafighting.com/2025/7/3/24461432/president-trump-reveals-plans-to-hold-a-ufc-event-at-the-white-house-in-2026). In October 2025, [Trump said the event would take place on June 14, 2026](https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2025/10/06/donald-trump-ufc-white-house-event-date-birthday/86548457007/), Trump's 80th birthday.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if, [according to credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), an official UFC mixed martial arts event takes place on the White House Grounds during 2026.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, an official UFC MMA event is one that (a) is sanctioned by the District of Columbia's [Combat Sports Commission](https://dlcp.dc.gov/page/combat-sports-commission) and (b) includes at least one on-the-record MMA bout by two fighters officially on the UFC roster. \n\nIf an event also includes other fights, such as a boxing match, a WWE-style staged match, or an amateur/non-standard MMA event, this will not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Will a UFC event occur at the White House in 2026?", "post_id": 41168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766014122.21595, "end_time": 1768565437.465, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766014122.21595, "end_time": 1768565437.465, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7679918471007064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Ultimate Fighting Championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ultimate_Fighting_Championship) (UFC) is a mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion founded in 1993. The UFC has held [over 700 events](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_UFC_events) through the end of 2025. UFC events have taken place in various locations, with events in 2025 having taken place in the US, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, China, Australia, the UK, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Azerbaijan. In July 2025, [US President Donald Trump suggested that a UFC event would be held at the White House](https://www.mmafighting.com/2025/7/3/24461432/president-trump-reveals-plans-to-hold-a-ufc-event-at-the-white-house-in-2026). In October 2025, [Trump said the event would take place on June 14, 2026](https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/story/sports/ufc/2025/10/06/donald-trump-ufc-white-house-event-date-birthday/86548457007/), Trump's 80th birthday." }, { "id": 41162, "title": "Will the European Space Agency launch the PLATO spacecraft before 2027?", "short_title": "ESA officially launches PLATO before 2027?", "url_title": "ESA officially launches PLATO before 2027?", "slug": "esa-officially-launches-plato-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T21:29:43.136482Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T13:43:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-16T22:22:28.835778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T13:45:00.087950Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T13:43:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40878, "title": "Will the European Space Agency launch the PLATO spacecraft before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T21:29:43.136853Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T13:43:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T13:43:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T13:43:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 19, 2014, [the European Space Agency (ESA) released a press release](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/ESA_selects_planet-hunting_PLATO_mission) selecting\n\n> a space-based observatory to search for planets orbiting alien stars... The PLATO – Planetary Transits and Oscillations of stars – mission was selected by ESA’s Science Programme Committee for implementation as part of its Cosmic Vision 2015–25 Programme.\n\nOn June 17, 2017, [the ESA officially adopted the PLATO mission](https://www.engadget.com/2017-06-20-esa-plato-earth-twin-launches-2026.html) with a scheduled launch of 2026.\n\nIn October, 2015, [PLATO had been constructed and was ready for testing](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Plato/Completed_Plato_spacecraft_is_ready_for_final_tests). A launch date in December 2026 is still on track, although \"before graduating for launch, the spacecraft will have to pass a series of tough exams\".\n\nAccording to [ESA](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Plato),\n\n> ESA’s mission PLATO will use its 26 cameras to study terrestrial exoplanets in orbits up to the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. The mission will measure the sizes of exoplanets and discover exomoons and rings around them. Plato will also characterise planets' host stars by studying tiny light variations in the starlight it receives.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [European Space Agency](https://www.esa.int/) launches the [PLATO spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PLATO_\\(spacecraft\\)) before 2027.", "fine_print": "To resolve as Yes, a launch vehicle carrying the PLATO spacecraft only has to leave the launchpad under its own power, subsequent failures will not impact this question.", "short_title": "ESA officially launches PLATO before 2027?", "post_id": 41162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765923738.171588, "end_time": 1768488173.718, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765923738.171588, "end_time": 1768488173.718, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5326270120381639 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 19, 2014, [the European Space Agency (ESA) released a press release](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/ESA_selects_planet-hunting_PLATO_mission) selecting\n\n> a space-based observatory to search for planets orbiting alien stars... The PLATO – Planetary Transits and Oscillations of stars – mission was selected by ESA’s Science Programme Committee for implementation as part of its Cosmic Vision 2015–25 Programme.\n\nOn June 17, 2017, [the ESA officially adopted the PLATO mission](https://www.engadget.com/2017-06-20-esa-plato-earth-twin-launches-2026.html) with a scheduled launch of 2026.\n\nIn October, 2015, [PLATO had been constructed and was ready for testing](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Plato/Completed_Plato_spacecraft_is_ready_for_final_tests). A launch date in December 2026 is still on track, although \"before graduating for launch, the spacecraft will have to pass a series of tough exams\".\n\nAccording to [ESA](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Plato),\n\n> ESA’s mission PLATO will use its 26 cameras to study terrestrial exoplanets in orbits up to the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. The mission will measure the sizes of exoplanets and discover exomoons and rings around them. Plato will also characterise planets' host stars by studying tiny light variations in the starlight it receives." }, { "id": 41161, "title": "Will the first deliveries of the flying car ASKA A5 happen before 2028?", "short_title": "Will flying car ASKA A5 launch happen before 2028?", "url_title": "Will flying car ASKA A5 launch happen before 2028?", "slug": "will-flying-car-aska-a5-launch-happen-before-2028", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T21:10:03.657543Z", "published_at": "2025-12-16T01:50:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-17T23:33:46.157313Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-16T01:50:32.981344Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-17T01:50:11Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40877, "title": "Will the first deliveries of the flying car ASKA A5 happen before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T21:10:03.657936Z", "open_time": "2025-12-17T01:50:11Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-21T01:50:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-21T01:50:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Flying cars have captured human imagination long before the 20th century](https://flyingcarinsider.com/blog/the-evolution-of-flying-cars-a-historical-perspective/), \"found in the pages of fiction and the blueprints of visionaries\". But the challenge of commercially available flying cars is not just the technological requirements. Financing such a venture as well as all the safety, traffic management, privacy, noise pollution and infrastructure limitations has made [mass-produced flying cars a pipe dream](https://prelaunch.com/product-blog/history-of-flying-cars) for centuries.\n\nIn March 2018, [ASKA was launched](https://www.askafly.com/about-us) and began developing the world’s first roadable electric-hybrid vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicle. The founders were \"serial entrepreneurs with a proven track record of guiding innovative technologies from concept to commercialization\". \n\nOn June 11, 2019, [a scale \"demonstrator\" model of the ASKA flying car concept](https://newatlas.com/aska-evtol-flying-car/60073/) was presented at the EcoMotion show in Tel Aviv, Israel.\n\nOn April 15, 2021, [the company announced it was taking pre-orders](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/announcing-aska-the-electric-take-off-and-landing-flying-car-for-consumers-301269806.html) for the ASKA, the first electric VTOL vehicle designed for consumers. A special limited edition of ASKA was available for preorder and priced at \\$789,000. Interested buyers could place a \\$5,000 deposit.\n\nOn July 1, 2025, [the company announced the acquisition of Eagle Field](https://www.askafly.com/aska-founders-acquire-historic-eagle-field-airport), a private airport located in Fresno County, California with the aim of relocating its operations from Mountain View. ASKA also announced that in May 2025 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) granted two important approvals to continue flight testing:\n\n> 1\\) Renewal of the ASKA A5 prototype’s airworthiness certificate as an Experimental R\\&D Unmanned Aircraft, following an inspection;\n> 2\\) Certificate of Waiver or Authorization (COA) approving Eagle Field as one of the test sites with an expanded flight test area.\n\nAlthough the first deliveries had been estimated [as early as 2026](https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/new-flying-car-size-of-an-suv-1234607673/), [the current pre-order webpage of the ASKA website](https://www.askafly.com/pre-order) states \"deliveries are expected to start by 2028\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 2028, the first deliveries of [the ASKA™ A5 model](https://www.askafly.com/pre-order) are made to customers.", "fine_print": "If deliveries are only available to those who pre-ordered this question will still resolve as Yes.\n\nThis question refers only to [the ASKA™ A5 model](https://www.askafly.com/pre-order). Any other models of flying car do not count towards the resolution of this question.", "short_title": "Will flying car ASKA A5 launch happen before 2028?", "post_id": 41161, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766014415.97395, "end_time": 1773738737.913, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766014415.97395, "end_time": 1773738737.913, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.48933576949662067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Flying cars have captured human imagination long before the 20th century](https://flyingcarinsider.com/blog/the-evolution-of-flying-cars-a-historical-perspective/), \"found in the pages of fiction and the blueprints of visionaries\". But the challenge of commercially available flying cars is not just the technological requirements. Financing such a venture as well as all the safety, traffic management, privacy, noise pollution and infrastructure limitations has made [mass-produced flying cars a pipe dream](https://prelaunch.com/product-blog/history-of-flying-cars) for centuries.\n\nIn March 2018, [ASKA was launched](https://www.askafly.com/about-us) and began developing the world’s first roadable electric-hybrid vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) vehicle. The founders were \"serial entrepreneurs with a proven track record of guiding innovative technologies from concept to commercialization\". \n\nOn June 11, 2019, [a scale \"demonstrator\" model of the ASKA flying car concept](https://newatlas.com/aska-evtol-flying-car/60073/) was presented at the EcoMotion show in Tel Aviv, Israel.\n\nOn April 15, 2021, [the company announced it was taking pre-orders](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/announcing-aska-the-electric-take-off-and-landing-flying-car-for-consumers-301269806.html) for the ASKA, the first electric VTOL vehicle designed for consumers. A special limited edition of ASKA was available for preorder and priced at \\$789,000. Interested buyers could place a \\$5,000 deposit.\n\nOn July 1, 2025, [the company announced the acquisition of Eagle Field](https://www.askafly.com/aska-founders-acquire-historic-eagle-field-airport), a private airport located in Fresno County, California with the aim of relocating its operations from Mountain View. ASKA also announced that in May 2025 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) granted two important approvals to continue flight testing:\n\n> 1\\) Renewal of the ASKA A5 prototype’s airworthiness certificate as an Experimental R\\&D Unmanned Aircraft, following an inspection;\n> 2\\) Certificate of Waiver or Authorization (COA) approving Eagle Field as one of the test sites with an expanded flight test area.\n\nAlthough the first deliveries had been estimated [as early as 2026](https://robbreport.com/motors/aviation/new-flying-car-size-of-an-suv-1234607673/), [the current pre-order webpage of the ASKA website](https://www.askafly.com/pre-order) states \"deliveries are expected to start by 2028\"." }, { "id": 41155, "title": "Dojde do konce roku 2026 k politickému zrušení tzv. české muniční iniciativy nebo k jejímu převedení pod vedení jiného státu?", "short_title": "Zrušení české muniční iniciativy", "url_title": "Zrušení české muniční iniciativy", "slug": "zruseni-ceske-municni-iniciativy", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T15:58:04.259957Z", "published_at": "2025-12-11T08:29:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T13:13:31.861155Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-11T08:29:55.998737Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 40856, "title": "Dojde do konce roku 2026 k politickému zrušení tzv. české muniční iniciativy nebo k jejímu převedení pod vedení jiného státu?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T15:58:04.260405Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-16T08:29:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-16T08:29:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Česká muniční iniciativa* je mnohostranný mechanismus, který ČR spustila v roce 2024. Praha lokalizovala podle odhadů kolem 800 tisíc dělostřeleckých nábojů v třetích zemích a od spojenců získala finance na první nákup cca 300 tisíc kusů. Podle údajů české vlády a zahraničních médií dostala Ukrajina v roce 2024 z této iniciativy zhruba 500 tisíc kusů munice zakoupených mimo Evropu, a celkově Česko v roce 2024 koordinovalo dodávky asi [1,5 milionu dělostřeleckých granátů](https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/domaci-zivot-v-cesku-cernochova-ceska-iniciativa-dodala-ukrajine-dalsich-400-tisic-kusu-munice-275163). Celkem 18 států na to do června 2024 vybralo kolem 1,8 mld. dolarů a dodávky pokračují tempem desítek tisíc kusů měsíčně. Iniciativa tak částečně napravila nezdařený evropský plán dodat Ukrajině 1 milion granátů do března 2024, který se v EU kvůli kapacitním problémům opozdil až do prosince 2024.\n\nV rámci západní podpory Ukrajiny už existuje řada tematických „koalic“, např. tanková, letecká nebo dronová, které vedou konkrétní státy, zatímco EU financuje část pomoci z nástroje European Peace Facility (EPF). Česká muniční iniciativa se do této mozaiky zařadila jako pragmaticky pojatá, rychlá a relativně úspěšná odpověď na „hlad po munici“, což potvrzují jak ukrajinské veřejné výroky, tak fakt, že se k ní postupně přidaly i velké státy jako Německo. Zároveň ale čelí kritice kvůli údajné netransparentnosti, vysokým maržím a výběru zprostředkovatelů. Investigativní práce Investigace.cz však [nenašla](https://www.investigace.cz/zbrane-ukrajina-municni-iniciativa-ii/) důkazy o systematicky vadné munici a velcí dárci provádějí vlastní kontrolu kvality.\n\nPolitické riziko zrušení nebo převodu iniciativy zásadně vzrostlo po posunu české vnitřní politiky. Už v roce 2025 upozorňovala zahraniční média, že pokud ve volbách vyhraje hnutí ANO Andreje Babiše, může dojít k přehodnocení podpory Ukrajině včetně muniční iniciativy. ANO opakovaně uvedlo, že by vláda vedená tímto hnutím muniční iniciativu [zrušila](https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/domaci-politika-vlada-ano-by-zrusila-ceskou-municni-iniciativu-rekl-babis-281965). Babiš ji označil za „starou, plesnivou a předraženou“. Po volbách 2025 ANO zvítězilo se zhruba 34–35 % hlasů, ale bez jasné většiny a nyní vyjednává o vládě s menšími stranami. Zástupci současného (odcházejícího) kabinetu i prezidentské kanceláře přitom varují, že ukončit iniciativu by znamenalo ohrozit jak bezpečnost Ukrajiny, tak reputaci ČR jako spolehlivého spojence a koordinátora.\n\nDiskutuje se také možnost převést iniciativu pod širší rámec NATO či EU. Sám Andrej Babiš při kritice iniciativy naznačil, že projekt by mohla převzít Severoatlantická aliance, zatímco ministryně obrany Jana Černochová oponovala, že současná podoba je funkční a transparentní. Prakticky by to znamenalo, že politické a koordinační vedení by z Prahy přešlo na jiný stát nebo instituci, ale logistické a smluvní vazby by z části zůstaly (diskutuje se například o [Estonsku](https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-municni-iniciativu-by-si-mohlo-prevzit-estonsko-290929)). V minulosti některé tematické koalice pro Ukrajinu postupně přerůstaly do širších EU/NATO rámců, nikoliv formálním aktem zrušení, ale spíše pozvolným přesunem těžiště rozhodování.", "resolution_criteria": "Otázka bude vyhodnocena jako ANO, pokud nastane jedna z následujících událostí:\n\n* **Politické zrušení** - Vláda ČR (případně Parlament či prezident v součinnosti s vládou) oficiálně a veřejně oznámí, že česká muniční iniciativa (či jasně identifikovaný projekt se stejným obsahem) je ukončena / zrušena a ČR již dále neplní roli koordinátora. Toto ukončení musí být potvrzeno alespoň dvěma nezávislými velkými médii (např. ČTK, ČT, Reuters, AP), která výslovně popisují krok jako konec nebo zrušení české muniční iniciativy.\n\n* **Převedení pod vedení jiného státu / instituce** - Vláda ČR (případně Parlament či prezident v součinnosti s vládou) a nebo jiný stát či mezinárodní organizace (EU, NATO) oficiálně a veřejně oznámí, že politické a koordinační vedení české muniční iniciativy přebírá jiný stát či mezinárodní organizace (např. „od nynějška bude iniciativu vést Estonsko / NATO / EU“), přičemž iniciativa ve výrazně podobném formátu bude pokračovat.\n\nPokud žádná obdobná událost nenastane, otázka bude vyhodnocena jako NE. Podobně se pro pozitivní vyhodnocení otázky nebude počítat, pokud bude iniciativa pouze omezená, dočasně pozastavená, rebrandovaná či nahrazena jiným projektem s podstatně podobným účelem.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Zrušení české muniční iniciativy", "post_id": 41155, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766841201.696189, "end_time": 1798377201.156, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766841201.696189, "end_time": 1798377201.156, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Česká muniční iniciativa* je mnohostranný mechanismus, který ČR spustila v roce 2024. Praha lokalizovala podle odhadů kolem 800 tisíc dělostřeleckých nábojů v třetích zemích a od spojenců získala finance na první nákup cca 300 tisíc kusů. Podle údajů české vlády a zahraničních médií dostala Ukrajina v roce 2024 z této iniciativy zhruba 500 tisíc kusů munice zakoupených mimo Evropu, a celkově Česko v roce 2024 koordinovalo dodávky asi [1,5 milionu dělostřeleckých granátů](https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/domaci-zivot-v-cesku-cernochova-ceska-iniciativa-dodala-ukrajine-dalsich-400-tisic-kusu-munice-275163). Celkem 18 států na to do června 2024 vybralo kolem 1,8 mld. dolarů a dodávky pokračují tempem desítek tisíc kusů měsíčně. Iniciativa tak částečně napravila nezdařený evropský plán dodat Ukrajině 1 milion granátů do března 2024, který se v EU kvůli kapacitním problémům opozdil až do prosince 2024.\n\nV rámci západní podpory Ukrajiny už existuje řada tematických „koalic“, např. tanková, letecká nebo dronová, které vedou konkrétní státy, zatímco EU financuje část pomoci z nástroje European Peace Facility (EPF). Česká muniční iniciativa se do této mozaiky zařadila jako pragmaticky pojatá, rychlá a relativně úspěšná odpověď na „hlad po munici“, což potvrzují jak ukrajinské veřejné výroky, tak fakt, že se k ní postupně přidaly i velké státy jako Německo. Zároveň ale čelí kritice kvůli údajné netransparentnosti, vysokým maržím a výběru zprostředkovatelů. Investigativní práce Investigace.cz však [nenašla](https://www.investigace.cz/zbrane-ukrajina-municni-iniciativa-ii/) důkazy o systematicky vadné munici a velcí dárci provádějí vlastní kontrolu kvality.\n\nPolitické riziko zrušení nebo převodu iniciativy zásadně vzrostlo po posunu české vnitřní politiky. Už v roce 2025 upozorňovala zahraniční média, že pokud ve volbách vyhraje hnutí ANO Andreje Babiše, může dojít k přehodnocení podpory Ukrajině včetně muniční iniciativy. ANO opakovaně uvedlo, že by vláda vedená tímto hnutím muniční iniciativu [zrušila](https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/domaci-politika-vlada-ano-by-zrusila-ceskou-municni-iniciativu-rekl-babis-281965). Babiš ji označil za „starou, plesnivou a předraženou“. Po volbách 2025 ANO zvítězilo se zhruba 34–35 % hlasů, ale bez jasné většiny a nyní vyjednává o vládě s menšími stranami. Zástupci současného (odcházejícího) kabinetu i prezidentské kanceláře přitom varují, že ukončit iniciativu by znamenalo ohrozit jak bezpečnost Ukrajiny, tak reputaci ČR jako spolehlivého spojence a koordinátora.\n\nDiskutuje se také možnost převést iniciativu pod širší rámec NATO či EU. Sám Andrej Babiš při kritice iniciativy naznačil, že projekt by mohla převzít Severoatlantická aliance, zatímco ministryně obrany Jana Černochová oponovala, že současná podoba je funkční a transparentní. Prakticky by to znamenalo, že politické a koordinační vedení by z Prahy přešlo na jiný stát nebo instituci, ale logistické a smluvní vazby by z části zůstaly (diskutuje se například o [Estonsku](https://www.seznamzpravy.cz/clanek/zahranicni-municni-iniciativu-by-si-mohlo-prevzit-estonsko-290929)). V minulosti některé tematické koalice pro Ukrajinu postupně přerůstaly do širších EU/NATO rámců, nikoliv formálním aktem zrušení, ale spíše pozvolným přesunem těžiště rozhodování." }, { "id": 41154, "title": "Bude v roce 2026 vyhlášen v alespoň jednom z českých krajů nouzový stav v souvislosti s přírodní katastrofou?", "short_title": "Nouzový stav v českých krajích", "url_title": "Nouzový stav v českých krajích", "slug": "nouzovy-stav-v-ceskych-krajich", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T15:49:35.283302Z", "published_at": "2025-12-11T08:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T13:12:18.730716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-11T08:29:45.903549Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 40855, "title": "Bude v roce 2026 vyhlášen v alespoň jednom z českých krajů nouzový stav v souvislosti s přírodní katastrofou?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T15:49:35.283740Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-16T08:29:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-16T08:29:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Právní rámec krizových stavů v ČR určuje ústavní zákon č. 110/1998 Sb. o bezpečnosti ČR a krizový zákon č. 240/2000 Sb. Ty rozlišují mimo jiné nouzový stav (vyhlašuje vláda nebo premiér) a stav nebezpečí (vyhlašuje hejtman), a to pro celé území státu nebo jeho část. Nouzový stav lze vyhlásit při živelných pohromách, ekologických nebo průmyslových haváriích či jiném vážném ohrožení života, zdraví a majetku.\n\nHistoricky byl [nouzový stav](https://hzscr.gov.cz/clanek/web-krizove-rizeni-a-cnp-krizove-stavy-krizove-stavy.aspx?q=Y2hudW09Mg%3d%3d) kvůli přírodní katastrofě vyhlášen například při orkánu Kyrill v roce 2007, kdy byl na dva týdny zakázán vstup do lesů v pěti krajích, a při velkých povodních v roce 2013, kdy vláda rozhodnutím č. 140/2013 Sb. vyhlásila nouzový stav v sedmi krajích (Praha, Jihočeský, Středočeský, Plzeňský, Ústecký, Liberecký a Královéhradecký).\n\nNaopak řada dalších událostí (např. tornádo na Břeclavsku 2021, opakované regionální povodně) byla řešena spíše stavem nebezpečí na úrovni krajů nebo lokálními opatřeními, nikoli nouzovým stavem vlády. Nouzový stav byl častěji využit pro jiné typy krizí – především pandemii covidu-19 v letech 2020–2021 a energetickou či migrační krizi, kdy byl vyhlášen pro celé území státu.\n\nFyzické riziko přírodních katastrof se přitom v regionu zvyšuje. ČR například patří mezi evropské země vysoce ohrožené povodněmi. Analýza [World Weather Attribution](https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/rainfall/) k povodním ve střední Evropě v roce 2024 ukazuje, že klimatická změna zdvojnásobila pravděpodobnost takto extrémních srážkových epizod, ekonomické škody v Evropě v létě 2024 se odhadují na desítky miliard eur. Panel IPCC i EEA přitom pro střední Evropu [předpovídají](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Europe.pdf) častější epizody přívalových dešťů a povodní. To posouvá base rate přírodních katastrof směrem nahoru, ale administrativní praxe vlád (kdy sáhnout po nouzovém stavu a kdy „jen“ po stavu nebezpečí či jiných nástrojích) je konzervativní – nouzový stav kvůli přírodní pohromě nebyl od roku 2013 vyhlášen, ačkoliv extrémní jevy přibývají.", "resolution_criteria": "Otázka bude vyhodnocena jako ANO, pokud vláda ČR nebo předseda vlády formálně vyhlásí nouzový stav podle ústavního zákona č. 110/1998 Sb. a krizového zákona č. 240/2000 Sb., rozhodnutím zveřejněným ve Sbírce zákonů a / nebo na vlada.gov.cz. V odůvodnění nebo přiložených materiálech musí být uvedeno, že hlavním (převládajícím) důvodem je přírodní katastrofa / živelná pohroma (např. povodně, orkán, rozsáhlé požáry, sesuvy půdy, extrémní sněhová kalamita apod.). Územní rozsah vyhlášeného nouzového stavu musí zahrnovat alespoň jeden český kraj (včetně hl. m. Prahy), ať už celý, nebo jeho část.\n\nPro pozitivní vyhodnocení otázky se naopak nebude počítat stav nebezpečí vyhlášený hejtmanem či nouzový stav vyhlášený z jiných důvodů (epidemie, energetika, migrace, bezpečnostní hrozby ne-přírodního charakteru). Vyhodnocení proběhne podle informací poskytnutých a nebo na základě konsenzu informování významnými a důvěryhodnými českými médii.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Nouzový stav v českých krajích", "post_id": 41154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766840818.503145, "end_time": 1798376818.4, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766840818.503145, "end_time": 1798376818.4, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.825, 0.175 ], "means": [ 0.175 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Právní rámec krizových stavů v ČR určuje ústavní zákon č. 110/1998 Sb. o bezpečnosti ČR a krizový zákon č. 240/2000 Sb. Ty rozlišují mimo jiné nouzový stav (vyhlašuje vláda nebo premiér) a stav nebezpečí (vyhlašuje hejtman), a to pro celé území státu nebo jeho část. Nouzový stav lze vyhlásit při živelných pohromách, ekologických nebo průmyslových haváriích či jiném vážném ohrožení života, zdraví a majetku.\n\nHistoricky byl [nouzový stav](https://hzscr.gov.cz/clanek/web-krizove-rizeni-a-cnp-krizove-stavy-krizove-stavy.aspx?q=Y2hudW09Mg%3d%3d) kvůli přírodní katastrofě vyhlášen například při orkánu Kyrill v roce 2007, kdy byl na dva týdny zakázán vstup do lesů v pěti krajích, a při velkých povodních v roce 2013, kdy vláda rozhodnutím č. 140/2013 Sb. vyhlásila nouzový stav v sedmi krajích (Praha, Jihočeský, Středočeský, Plzeňský, Ústecký, Liberecký a Královéhradecký).\n\nNaopak řada dalších událostí (např. tornádo na Břeclavsku 2021, opakované regionální povodně) byla řešena spíše stavem nebezpečí na úrovni krajů nebo lokálními opatřeními, nikoli nouzovým stavem vlády. Nouzový stav byl častěji využit pro jiné typy krizí – především pandemii covidu-19 v letech 2020–2021 a energetickou či migrační krizi, kdy byl vyhlášen pro celé území státu.\n\nFyzické riziko přírodních katastrof se přitom v regionu zvyšuje. ČR například patří mezi evropské země vysoce ohrožené povodněmi. Analýza [World Weather Attribution](https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/analysis/rainfall/) k povodním ve střední Evropě v roce 2024 ukazuje, že klimatická změna zdvojnásobila pravděpodobnost takto extrémních srážkových epizod, ekonomické škody v Evropě v létě 2024 se odhadují na desítky miliard eur. Panel IPCC i EEA přitom pro střední Evropu [předpovídají](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/factsheets/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Regional_Fact_Sheet_Europe.pdf) častější epizody přívalových dešťů a povodní. To posouvá base rate přírodních katastrof směrem nahoru, ale administrativní praxe vlád (kdy sáhnout po nouzovém stavu a kdy „jen“ po stavu nebezpečí či jiných nástrojích) je konzervativní – nouzový stav kvůli přírodní pohromě nebyl od roku 2013 vyhlášen, ačkoliv extrémní jevy přibývají." }, { "id": 41153, "title": "Schválí Rada EU do konce roku 2026 plnohodnotné připojení Kypru do Schengenského prostoru?", "short_title": "Vstup Kypru do Schengenu", "url_title": "Vstup Kypru do Schengenu", "slug": "vstup-kypru-do-schengenu", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T15:41:29.014418Z", "published_at": "2025-12-11T08:29:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T17:47:16.715054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-11T08:29:35.580326Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 40854, "title": "Schválí Rada EU do konce roku 2026 plnohodnotné připojení Kypru do Schengenského prostoru?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T15:41:29.014762Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-16T08:29:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-16T08:29:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Schengenský prostor se od 90. let postupně rozšiřoval a dnes zahrnuje většinu států EU a čtyři přidružené země (Norsko, Island, Švýcarsko, Lichtenštejnsko). Posledními státy, které se do [Schengenu](https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen/schengen-area_en) připojily, byly Rumunsko a Bulharsko, které vstoupily nejprve částečně (zrušení kontrol na leteckých a námořních vnitřních hranicích od března 2024) a následně došlo rozhodnutím členských států k plnému odstranění kontrol včetně pozemních hranic od 1. 1. 2025. Před Rumunskem a Bulharskem pak vstoupilo do Schengenu Chorvatsko.\n\nKypr je členem EU od roku 2004 a je *účastníkem schengenské spolupráce*, nicméně vnitřní hraniční kontroly vůči ostatním státům Schengenu dosud nebyly Radou EU zrušeny - země je tedy fakticky v pozici vyčkávání, podobně jako dříve Rumunsko a Bulharsko. Schengenské hodnocení v roce 2023 potvrdilo technickou připravenost a integraci Kypru do Schengenského informačního systému, ale doporučilo další kroky k plnému využití jeho funkcionalit. Tento model, tedy plnohodnotná implementace technických pravidel bez politického rozhodnutí o zrušení kontrol, je v literatuře někdy popisován jako „[Schengen purgatory](https://cadmus.eui.eu/entities/publication/9485edce-8103-5c12-8648-67cb0d74a308#:~:text=It%20is%20argued%20that%20the%20prolonged%20exclusion,duplication%20of%20the%20EU's%20external%20border%2C%20accompanied)“.\n\nV roce 2025 kyperský prezident Níkos Christodúlídés opakovaně uvedl, že cílem vlády je, aby se rok 2026 stal „[rokem Schengenu pro Kypr](https://etias.com/articles/cyprus-committed-to-schengen-entry-by-2026)“, a že země chce dokončit technickou připravenost v roce 2025. Analytické a komerční zdroje shodně referují o cíli připojit se do Schengenu v roce 2026. Zároveň ale přetrvává politická komplikace v podobě rozdělení ostrova a vztahů s Tureckem - část členských států vnímá nevyřešenou situaci a migraci přes severní Kypr jako bezpečnostní riziko, zatímco jiní jej považují za zvládnutelné při správném vymezení vnější hranice.", "resolution_criteria": "Otázka bude vyhodnocena pozitivně pokud Rada EU do konce roku přijme rozhodnutí o plné aplikaci schengenského acquis na Kypru, které výslovně stanoví zrušení kontrol na všech vnitřních leteckých, námořních i pozemních hranicích mezi Kyprem a ostatními státy Schengenu, analogicky k rozhodnutí pro Chorvatsko nebo pro plné členství Rumunska a Bulharska. Pro vyhodnocení budou využity výstupy důvěryhodných médií a nebo oficiální tiskové zprávy institucí Evropské unie.\n\nPokud nebude do konce roku přijato žádné rozhodnutí Rady EU ke kyperskému zapojení do Schengenského prostoru a nebo pokud bude připojení pouze omezené (např. jen letecké nebo námořní hranice), bude otázka vyhodnocena jako NE.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Vstup Kypru do Schengenu", "post_id": 41153, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766424644.986294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766424644.986294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Schengenský prostor se od 90. let postupně rozšiřoval a dnes zahrnuje většinu států EU a čtyři přidružené země (Norsko, Island, Švýcarsko, Lichtenštejnsko). Posledními státy, které se do [Schengenu](https://home-affairs.ec.europa.eu/policies/schengen/schengen-area_en) připojily, byly Rumunsko a Bulharsko, které vstoupily nejprve částečně (zrušení kontrol na leteckých a námořních vnitřních hranicích od března 2024) a následně došlo rozhodnutím členských států k plnému odstranění kontrol včetně pozemních hranic od 1. 1. 2025. Před Rumunskem a Bulharskem pak vstoupilo do Schengenu Chorvatsko.\n\nKypr je členem EU od roku 2004 a je *účastníkem schengenské spolupráce*, nicméně vnitřní hraniční kontroly vůči ostatním státům Schengenu dosud nebyly Radou EU zrušeny - země je tedy fakticky v pozici vyčkávání, podobně jako dříve Rumunsko a Bulharsko. Schengenské hodnocení v roce 2023 potvrdilo technickou připravenost a integraci Kypru do Schengenského informačního systému, ale doporučilo další kroky k plnému využití jeho funkcionalit. Tento model, tedy plnohodnotná implementace technických pravidel bez politického rozhodnutí o zrušení kontrol, je v literatuře někdy popisován jako „[Schengen purgatory](https://cadmus.eui.eu/entities/publication/9485edce-8103-5c12-8648-67cb0d74a308#:~:text=It%20is%20argued%20that%20the%20prolonged%20exclusion,duplication%20of%20the%20EU's%20external%20border%2C%20accompanied)“.\n\nV roce 2025 kyperský prezident Níkos Christodúlídés opakovaně uvedl, že cílem vlády je, aby se rok 2026 stal „[rokem Schengenu pro Kypr](https://etias.com/articles/cyprus-committed-to-schengen-entry-by-2026)“, a že země chce dokončit technickou připravenost v roce 2025. Analytické a komerční zdroje shodně referují o cíli připojit se do Schengenu v roce 2026. Zároveň ale přetrvává politická komplikace v podobě rozdělení ostrova a vztahů s Tureckem - část členských států vnímá nevyřešenou situaci a migraci přes severní Kypr jako bezpečnostní riziko, zatímco jiní jej považují za zvládnutelné při správném vymezení vnější hranice." }, { "id": 41144, "title": "Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?", "short_title": "Sudan ceasefire in 2026?", "url_title": "Sudan ceasefire in 2026?", "slug": "sudan-ceasefire-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T12:16:18.092305Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T16:59:34.954843Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:24:55.182202Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40845, "title": "Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T12:16:18.092697Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 15 April 2023, Sudan collapsed into [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)) between the [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the [Sudanese Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces) (SAF). Following the [2021 Sudanese Coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) and subsequent ousting of former leader [Omar al-Bashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_al-Bashir), the rival factions gained substantial control of Sudan.\n\nAlthough initially promising elections, tensions between the two forces escalated, and the RSF began to recruit soldiers before mobilizing on April 13, and attacking SAF bases on April 15, 2025.\n\nThe civil war has led to hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions, while [famine as struck](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/stories/sudans-children-are-suffering-how-conflict-destroying-their-future_en) across the nation. On 22 May, 2025, a brief one day [ceasefire was agreed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65683681), however following it's collapse, little concrete action has been taken towards peace.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n\n* last 30 consecutive days during 2026\n\nor\n\n* be intended to last 30 days, as specified by the agreement text or joint statement.\n\nIf either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by the RSF and SAF and applies to all fighting against the other by both sides.\n\nA ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both the RSF and SAF agree that is has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire will not impact this question.\n\nTo qualify, the 30 day period must end during 2026, a ceasefire starting less than 30 days before 2027 will not be able to qualify.", "short_title": "Sudan ceasefire in 2026?", "post_id": 41144, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 15 April 2023, Sudan collapsed into [civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_civil_war_\\(2023%E2%80%93present\\)) between the [Rapid Support Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rapid_Support_Forces) (RSF) and the [Sudanese Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudanese_Armed_Forces) (SAF). Following the [2021 Sudanese Coup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Sudanese_coup_d'%C3%A9tat) and subsequent ousting of former leader [Omar al-Bashir](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_al-Bashir), the rival factions gained substantial control of Sudan.\n\nAlthough initially promising elections, tensions between the two forces escalated, and the RSF began to recruit soldiers before mobilizing on April 13, and attacking SAF bases on April 15, 2025.\n\nThe civil war has led to hundreds of thousands dead and displaced millions, while [famine as struck](https://civil-protection-humanitarian-aid.ec.europa.eu/news-stories/stories/sudans-children-are-suffering-how-conflict-destroying-their-future_en) across the nation. On 22 May, 2025, a brief one day [ceasefire was agreed](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65683681), however following it's collapse, little concrete action has been taken towards peace." }, { "id": 41142, "title": "Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?", "short_title": "Starship orbital refueling in 2026?", "url_title": "Starship orbital refueling in 2026?", "slug": "starship-orbital-refueling-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-09T11:29:06.669532Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T16:59:37.761277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:24:25.194332Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-27T17:03:19.372074Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40843, "title": "Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-09T11:29:06.670019Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Starship Propellant Transfer Demonstration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration) is a planned demonstration of the capacity to refuel a [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) rocket using another while in orbit of Earth. \n\nScheduled to take place during mid-2026, the mission is critical for [Artemis Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) as the program requires refueling in order to reach the moon.\n\nSpaceX has had [mixed results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches) during past launches, with their most recent test, [Flight 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_11), successfully splashing down with only 1 partial failure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if SpaceX successfully transfers at least 1 metric ton of propellant from one Starship to another while both are in Earth orbit during 2026.", "fine_print": "* If no official numbers are published, estimates from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) will be used to resolve this question. Estimates described as \"approximately a ton\" or similar will qualify. If no credible estimates exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** if NASA or SpaceX describe the propellant transfer as successful.\n* This question will not resolve as **Yes** if, before either vehicle begins its planned landing or deorbit, either Starship is severely damaged, loses control, or is otherwise declared a loss by SpaceX or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "short_title": "Starship orbital refueling in 2026?", "post_id": 41142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Starship Propellant Transfer Demonstration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_Propellant_Transfer_Demonstration) is a planned demonstration of the capacity to refuel a [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_\\(spacecraft\\)) rocket using another while in orbit of Earth. \n\nScheduled to take place during mid-2026, the mission is critical for [Artemis Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) as the program requires refueling in order to reach the moon.\n\nSpaceX has had [mixed results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Starship_launches) during past launches, with their most recent test, [Flight 11](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starship_flight_test_11), successfully splashing down with only 1 partial failure." } ] }
