Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 5523, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 38797, "title": "Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?", "short_title": "Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?", "url_title": "Employment decline in NAICS 52/54 >1% in any month, 2025-2029?", "slug": "employment-decline-in-naics-5254-1-in-any-month-2025-2029", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-02T21:33:50.496319Z", "published_at": "2025-07-14T12:50:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T12:53:31.581931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-14T12:53:31.562237Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-15T12:50:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38118, "title": "Will employment in US knowledge-intensive sectors (NAICS 52 and 54) decline by more than 1% in any single month before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-07-02T21:33:50.496744Z", "open_time": "2025-07-15T12:50:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-19T12:50:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), are being rapidly adopted across sectors like law, finance, software, and consulting, the real-world impact on employment remains contested.\n\nSome experts suggest these tools act primarily as productivity enhancers, freeing up time for higher-value tasks. Others believe we are on the cusp of labour substitution, where AI systems begin replacing workers outright.\n\nHistorical data highlights how rare large drops are:\n\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm) has only ever experienced a >1% monthly drop once, in April 2020 (COVID).\n* [NAICS 52]() has never experienced a >1% monthly decline, even during the 2008 financial crisis.\n\nThis question aims to to detect unusual and abrupt employment shifts tied to AI substitution, rather than routine economic fluctuations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for any month before January 2030, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports a month-over-month decline of more than 1.0% in for either:\n\n* NAICS 52: Finance and Insurance, or\n* NAICS 54: Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While AI systems, especially large language models (LLMs), are being rapidly adopted across sectors like law, finance, software, and consulting, the real-world impact on employment remains contested.\n\nSome experts suggest these tools act primarily as productivity enhancers, freeing up time for higher-value tasks. Others believe we are on the cusp of labour substitution, where AI systems begin replacing workers outright.\n\nHistorical data highlights how rare large drops are:\n\n* [NAICS 54](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag54.htm) has only ever experienced a >1% monthly drop once, in April 2020 (COVID).\n* [NAICS 52]() has never experienced a >1% monthly decline, even during the 2008 financial crisis.\n\nThis question aims to to detect unusual and abrupt employment shifts tied to AI substitution, rather than routine economic fluctuations." }, { "id": 38796, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source language model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 1st, 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 1st, 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI release a powerful open-source AI model before October 1st, 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-powerful-open-source-ai-model-before-october-1st-2025", "author_id": 207737, "author_username": "EmanuelR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:36.562161Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:37.344662Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:59.848572Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T03:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38117, "title": "Will OpenAI release an open-source language model that ranks in the top 35 of the Chatbot Arena leaderboard before October 1st, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-02T20:42:36.562541Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-06T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n\"\"\"we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.\"\"\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"yes\" if, before October 1st, 2025, a model is released by OpenAI that meets all of the following criteria:\n\n1\\. **Open Source:** The model has a license that is anything other than “proprietary,” and its weights are publicly available for download.\n\n2\\. **Performance:** The model is ranked in the top 35 on the [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) when ranked by Text Arena score rating.\n\nIf a model meeting both of these criteria is not released by the resolution date, this question will resolve as \"No.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[OpenAI plans to release a new open-source model](https://techcrunch.com/2025/04/23/openai-seeks-to-make-its-upcoming-open-ai-model-best-in-class), a significant move as its last open-weight model was GPT-2.\n\nThis new model is expected to be a \"text in, text out\" system focused on reasoning, similar to OpenAI's proprietary \"o-series\" models like [o1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI_o1), [o3, and o4-mini](https://openai.com/index/introducing-o3-and-o4-mini/). These models are designed to \"think\" for longer before providing an answer, excelling at complex tasks. The performance of open-source models is often tracked on the public [LMArena Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), which uses crowdsourced user votes to rank models. As of July 1st, 2025, top open-source models like Deepseek-R1, Qwen3-235B, and Gemma3 rank between 10th, 22nd, and 24th place, respectively, while OpenAI's closed o-series models, o3 and o4-mini, hold the 2nd and 10th places, respectively.\n\nThe release of the proposed OpenAI open-source model was delayed to later this summer, [quoting Sam Altman](https://x.com/sama/status/1932573231199707168?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1932573231199707168%7Ctwgr%5E72ece85d251001bb769788f1d0fd8b3e4d3b3076%7Ctwcon%5Es1_\\&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftechcrunch.com%2F2025%2F06%2F10%2Fopenais-open-model-is-delayed%2F):\n\n\"\"\"we are going to take a little more time with our open-weights model, i.e. expect it later this summer but not june. our research team did something unexpected and quite amazing and we think it will be very very worth the wait, but needs a bit longer.\"\"\"" }, { "id": 38784, "title": "Will highly effective kamikaze drone defenses be operationally deployed by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "Drone interception end 2025", "url_title": "Drone interception end 2025", "slug": "drone-interception-end-2025", "author_id": 275004, "author_username": "adriaan.kovac", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-01T16:46:22.987580Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:36.119836Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T21:34:55.716015Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:44:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38100, "title": "Will highly effective kamikaze drone defenses be operationally deployed by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-01T16:46:22.988389Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:44:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kamikaze drones have emerged as a transformative weapon in the Russia-Ukraine war, with some analysts crediting them for significantly reducing the effectiveness of armored fighting vehicles and challenging the viability of mobile warfare. This question asks whether, by December 31, 2025, defensive systems will be operationally deployed that can intercept **≥80%** of drones targeting **armored vehicles, tanks, or helicopters**, and **≥20%** of drones targeting **infantry**. Resolution will depend on real-world deployment and publicly verifiable evidence from credible sources such as military reports, battlefield footage, or independent OSINT analysis.", "resolution_criteria": "### **Resolution Criteria (YES if all conditions are met):**\n\nBy **December 31, 2025**, at least one system must be:\n\n1. **In operational use** — i.e., actively deployed in conflict zones or military exercises, not merely in testing or prototype phase.\n2. Demonstrated to achieve:\n * **≥80% interception rate** against kamikaze drones targeting **armored vehicles, tanks, or helicopters**, **and**\n * **≥20% interception rate** against drones targeting **infantry**.\n\n***\n\n**Interception** means the drone is neutralized (destroyed, diverted, or disabled) **before it causes damage**.\n\nEvidence must come from **publicly available sources**: official military reports, video confirmation, or credible OSINT analysis.\n\nIf **both thresholds** are not met by the deadline, the question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38784, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kamikaze drones have emerged as a transformative weapon in the Russia-Ukraine war, with some analysts crediting them for significantly reducing the effectiveness of armored fighting vehicles and challenging the viability of mobile warfare. This question asks whether, by December 31, 2025, defensive systems will be operationally deployed that can intercept **≥80%** of drones targeting **armored vehicles, tanks, or helicopters**, and **≥20%** of drones targeting **infantry**. Resolution will depend on real-world deployment and publicly verifiable evidence from credible sources such as military reports, battlefield footage, or independent OSINT analysis." }, { "id": 38783, "title": "Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump attempt to deport Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-attempt-to-deport-elon-musk-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-01T14:52:45.831847Z", "published_at": "2025-07-01T17:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T01:49:44.516584Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T17:03:13.467138Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.403513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.403513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38099, "title": "Will the US government file a denaturalization lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-01T14:52:45.832339Z", "open_time": "2025-07-01T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-02T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n\n> President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n>  \n> Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n>  \n> \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n\nNPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n\n> Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n>  \n> \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n>  \n> The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n>  \n> In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States Department of Justice, or any other government agency with the authority to do so, files a [revocation of naturalization](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/8/1451) lawsuit against Elon Musk before July 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752396291.970274, "end_time": 1754087890.053, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752396291.970274, "end_time": 1754087890.053, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.19321604015400512 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2235245204247212, 2.087416519201493, 1.1545713485733846, 0.023645968432686428, 0.34848960163546905, 0.49745793648847497, 0.31286391742790765, 1.1022370613530708, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.401095004563478 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News: [Trump says he'll 'look' at deporting Musk as feud reignites](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hell-deporting-musk-feud-reignites/story?id=123372908) (July 1, 2025)\n\n> President Donald Trump told reporters Tuesday his administration will \"have to take a look\" at deporting Elon Musk after the billionaire reignited the feud with the president over [his spending bill](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-admin-live-updates-senate-begin-big-beautiful/?id=123330663?e!f).\n>  \n> Musk, a South African national and a naturalized U.S. citizen, made several weekend X posts slamming Republicans over the \"Big Beautiful Bill,\" arguing that it was adding more debt.\n>  \n> \"It is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record FIVE TRILLION DOLLARS that we live in a one-party country – the PORKY PIG PARTY!!,\" Musk posted Monday afternoon.\n\nNPR:[ DOJ announces plans to prioritize cases to revoke citizenship](https://www.npr.org/2025/06/30/nx-s1-5445398/denaturalization-trump-immigration-enforcement) (June 30, 2025)\n\n> Assistant Attorney General Brett A. Shumate wrote in the memo that pursuing denaturalization will be among the agency's top five enforcement priorities for the civil division.\n>  \n> \"The Civil Division shall prioritize and maximally pursue denaturalization proceedings in all cases permitted by law and supported by the evidence,\" he said.\n>  \n> The focus on denaturalization is just the latest step by the Trump administration to reshape the nation's immigration system across all levels of government, turning it into a major focus across multiple federal agencies. That has come with redefining who is let into the United States or has the right to be an American.\n>  \n> . . . \n>  \n> The DOJ memo says that the federal government will pursue denaturalization cases via civil litigation — an especially concerning move, said Cassandra Robertson, a law professor at Case Western Reserve University.\n>  \n> In civil proceedings, any individual subject to denaturalization is not entitled to an attorney, Robertson said; there is also a lower burden of proof for the government to reach, and it is far easier and faster to reach a conclusion in these cases." }, { "id": 38778, "title": "test june30 binary", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "test-june30-binary", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-30T18:20:30.348459Z", "published_at": "2025-06-30T18:20:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-04T18:20:00.117946Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-30T18:20:46.596626Z", 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"slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38070, "title": "Will average global per capita energy consumption fall below 40 GJ/year by December 31, 2035?", "created_at": "2025-06-30T00:26:19.882783Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T11:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will have been considered resolved if by December 31, 2035 one of two outcomes has been proven:\n\n1\\)Global energy consumption per capita has declined to below 40 GJ/year, from around 60-70 GJ/year today. \n\n2\\) Global Energy consumption has increased or stayed roughly the same. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))" }, { "id": 38770, "title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "short_title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "url_title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "slug": "will-the-iranian-government-lose-power-before-2027", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T16:15:04.772735Z", "published_at": "2025-07-16T20:56:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T20:56:33.703082Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-16T20:56:33.687277Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "approved", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-17T20:56:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 38067, "title": "Will the Iranian government lose power before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T16:15:04.773182Z", "open_time": "2025-07-17T20:56:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-21T20:56:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a state controlling the majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory as of July 1, 2025 meets both of the following criteria, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions):\n\n1. Neither Ali Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian or the Guardian Council have formal political authority in the country.\n2. Iran's constitution does not refer to the state as an Islamic Republic.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either a foreign country or no entity controls a majority of internationally recognised Iranian territory, even if the primary criteria has not been met.\n\nIf the relevant state has no constitution, that will be sufficient to meet criterion 2.\n\nIf the Guardian Council shares no members with its composition as of July 1, 2025, that will be considered sufficient to meet the requirement that it no longer holds political authority.", "post_id": 38770, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Islamic Republic of Iran was established following the [1979 revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) that overthrew the monarchy. Since then, the country has maintained a centralized political system dominated by clerical leadership, while experiencing periods of both internal unrest and external pressure. Over the past four decades, the government has faced challenges including war, sanctions, and protests, but has remained in power. As of 2025, heightened international tensions, economic instability, and government unpopularity has left open the possibility of the government losing power." }, { "id": 38767, "title": "Will average global per capita energy consumption fall below 40 GJ/year by December 31, 2035?", "short_title": "Will we return to a preindustrial civilization globally?", "url_title": "Will we return to a preindustrial civilization globally?", "slug": "will-we-return-to-a-preindustrial-civilization-globally", "author_id": 274304, "author_username": "Shaman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T11:19:57.218293Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:45.019636Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-28T11:20:27.495618Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T11:18:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38064, "title": "Will average global per capita energy consumption fall below 40 GJ/year by December 31, 2035?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T11:19:57.218732Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-12-31T11:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-05T11:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will have been considered resolved if by December 31, 2035 one of two outcomes has been proven:\n\n1\\)Global energy consumption per capita has declined to below 40 GJ/year, from around 60-70 GJ/year today. \n\n2\\) Global Energy consumption has increased or stayed roughly the same. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been argued that our society is headed for a contraction due to the declining EROI of fossil fuels. One scenario forecasted ( by a blogger though) saw us hitting a sharp crash in 2030 due to a peak in Net Energy and regressing to a pre-industrial civilization by around 2050. \n\n( 2030: our runaway train falls off the Seneca cliff ) ( [https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb)](https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/2030-our-runaway-train-falls-off-the-seneca-cliff-cd51db4e7dfb\\))" }, { "id": 38766, "title": "Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?", "short_title": "AI moratorium BBB", "url_title": "AI moratorium BBB", "slug": "ai-moratorium-bbb", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-28T01:06:24.799758Z", "published_at": "2025-06-29T11:16:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T14:57:18.996300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-29T11:18:30.550684Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:16:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38063, "title": "Will the One Big Beautiful Bill Act contain a 5+ year AI moratorium provision and be signed into law before July 2026?", "created_at": "2025-06-28T01:06:24.800197Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:16:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T11:16:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n\nThis provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n\nSenate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **YES** if the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is signed into law by the President before July 1, 2026, and contains an AI moratorium provision with the following features:\n\n1. It maintains a prohibition period of at least 5 years (50% or more of the original 10-year proposal)\n2. It covers AI models and/or AI systems (not necessarily both)\n3. It either restricts state regulation entirely OR restricts federal funding to states by \\$100 million or more in total\n\nThis question will resolve as **NO** if:\n\n* The bill is not signed into law by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET\n* The final enacted version contains no AI moratorium provision meeting the above criteria\n* Congress officially abandons or indefinitely tables the bill before July 1, 2026", "fine_print": "If the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is split into multiple pieces of legislation, only the piece officially labeled as the \"BBB Act\" or \"One Big Beautiful Bill\" will count for resolution. If no piece retains this designation, the question resolves NO.\n\nIf the AI moratorium is moved to separate legislation outside of the BBB Act, this resolves NO regardless of whether that separate legislation passes. The moratorium must be part of the specific One Big Beautiful Bill Act referenced in this question.\n\nModifications that limit the moratorium to specific but significant sectors (e.g., only interstate commerce) still qualify as long as the other criteria are met. Likewise, sunset clauses or review periods within the moratorium period do not disqualify it from counting.", "post_id": 38766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752505028.414794, "end_time": 1754835992.288, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752505028.414794, "end_time": 1754835992.288, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.026015870767650807 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.751495149280127, 0.704933984898323, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1)](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1) [passed by the House of Representatives on May 22, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), is a bill passed via the budget reconciliation process. Among its provisions is a [10-year moratorium on state regulation of artificial intelligence](https://time.com/7297580/ai-moratorium-senate-big-beautiful-bill/), which would [prohibit states from enforcing laws that limit, restrict, or regulate AI models and systems in interstate commerce](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1). In the current bill, there is a lack of clarity over whether this affects \\$500 million of infrastructure funding, or \\$42 billion of BEAD broadband funding, and as of writing there are [discussions with the Senate Parlaimentarian about this](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/06/26/congress/parliamentarian-requests-cruz-rewrite-ai-moratorium-00427371).\n\nThis provision has sparked significant bipartisan opposition. [Over 260 bipartisan state lawmakers](https://www.citizen.org/news/bipartisan-opposition-to-cruzs-ai-moratorium-gains-momentum/) have expressed concerns about the moratorium. Five Republican senators including [Josh Hawley](https://www.techpolicy.press/proposed-federal-moratorium-on-state-ai-laws-clears-hurdle-in-us-senate/) have \"indicated concerns or doubts\".\n\nSenate Majority Leader John Thune [aims to pass the bill by July 4, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Big_Beautiful_Bill_Act), but the [narrow House margin (215-214)](https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-passed-us-house-2075670) and bipartisan Senate opposition suggest significant negotiations ahead." }, { "id": 38731, "title": "Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?", "short_title": "Will UK economy grow?", "url_title": "Will UK economy grow?", "slug": "will-uk-economy-grow", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:05.464406Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:33.165408Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:10.322038Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38023, "title": "Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:29:05.464809Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*\n\n\n\nWhether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n\nAs of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n\n* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n* Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n* EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n* KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n* S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n\n\n\n## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n\nChancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n\n* The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n* The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n\n## **Structural and External Challenges**\n\n* Productivity and investment\n * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n* Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n* Inflation and monetary policy\n * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n* US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n* Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n\nWhile there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"**Yes**\" if, at any point during the current UK parliamentary term (beginning with the first sitting of Parliament following the 2024 general election and ending on the day Parliament is dissolved), the annual GDP growth rate for the United Kingdom reaches or exceeds 2.0% for a full calendar year.\n\nTo qualify:\n\n* The GDP growth figure must reflect the real (inflation-adjusted) annual growth rate of the UK economy.\n\n\n* The data must correspond to a full calendar year (January 1 to December 31).\n\n\n* The growth figure must be at or above 2.00%, rounded to two decimal places.\n\n\n\nThe question will resolve as \"**No**\" if no calendar year during the parliamentary term sees the UK achieve at least 2.0% real GDP growth.\n\nConfirmation sources will include final or revised GDP statistics published by the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). If necessary, corroborating reports from reputable economic outlets (e.g., Financial Times, Reuters, BBC) may also be used for clarification.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38731, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the UK economy grow by at least 2% GDP in a year this parliamentary term?*\n\n\n\nWhether the UK economy will grow by at least 2% GDP in a year during the current parliamentary term is a subject of debate. Following a period of subdued economic performance marked by post-Brexit adjustments, high inflation, and global volatility, forecasts from major institutions—including the IMF, Bank of England, and private-sector economists—suggest modest growth in the near term. Yet, with shifting fiscal policy, potential monetary easing, and evolving trade dynamics, the possibility of a stronger rebound cannot be dismissed. \n\nAs of mid-2025, most major economic institutions project UK GDP growth to remain below 2% in the near term:\n\n* International Monetary Fund (IMF): Forecasts a [<u>1.2% growth in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2025/may/27/tesla-sales-europe-musk-markets-us-eu-tariff-delay-economy-business-live-news?). \n* Goldman Sachs: Estimates a [<u>1.2% GDP growth in 2025</u>](https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/uk-economic-growth-may-lag-expectations-in-2025?), slightly below the [<u>Bank of England's projection of 1.5%</u>](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2025/february-2025)<u>.</u>\n* EY ITEM Club: Revised its [<u>2025 growth forecast down to 1% from an earlier 1.5%</u>](https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2025/02/uk-economic-growth-downgraded-due-to-a-disappointing-2024?), due to a weaker-than-expected end to 2024\n* KPMG: Projects a [<u>1.7% growth in 2025</u>](https://kpmg.com/uk/en/media/press-releases/2025/01/uk-economy-in-2025.html?)<u>.</u>\n* S\\&P Global Ratings: Anticipates a [<u>1.5% GDP growth in 2025,</u>](https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/241126-u-k-economic-outlook-2025-monetary-policy-and-trade-to-offset-fiscal-impetus-13335986?) noting that monetary policy and trade dynamics may offset fiscal stimulus efforts.\n\n\n\n## **Fiscal Policy and Constraints**\n\nChancellor Rachel Reeves is navigating a [<u>challenging fiscal environment</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/8135f7d3-8328-47fa-9dfc-23c055605796?):\n\n* The IMF has endorsed [<u>potential refinements to the UK's fiscal rules</u>](https://moneyweek.com/economy/uk-economy/imf-suggests-refinements-to-rachel-reeves-fiscal-rules?), suggesting a reduction in the frequency of fiscal assessments to promote policy stability.[ ](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n* The UK's fiscal headroom is limited, with a narrow[<u> £9.9 billion buffer,</u>](https://www.ft.com/content/82eb9647-aab2-47d1-8eec-fb103544277a?) which is under threat due to rising borrowing costs and policy reversals that increase public spending pressures.\n* The IMF warns that [<u>unexpected economic shocks could necessitate further tax increases or spending cuts</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), despite praising Reeves' spending plans as credible and growth-oriented.\n\n## **Structural and External Challenges**\n\n* Productivity and investment\n * The UK faces persistent issues with [<u>low productivity growth and poor levels of investment,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) both public and private.\n * Total [<u>investment as a share of GDP is just 18%</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/), and the cost of major infrastructure projects is higher than in comparable European countries, limiting returns and growth potential.\n* Brexit and trade disruption: Brexit has contributed to a growth shortfall, with estimates suggesting it is responsible for about [<u>20% of the UK’s recent growth gap</u>](https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2024/04/apportioning-the-causes-of-the-uk-growth-shortfall.html).\n* Inflation and monetary policy\n * Inflation remains a concern, with the OBR forecasting [<u>a peak at 3.8%</u>](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-statement-2025-document/spring-statement-2025-html) in July 2025 before easing.\n * The Bank of England maintains relatively [<u>high interest rates,</u>](https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/216927/economics/uk-economy-set-to-deteriorate-in-2025/) which may continue to dampen growth.\n* US tariffs: The IMF has warned that U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs could cost the UK economy [<u>£8.5 billion by 2026</u>](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/35132637/trump-tariffs-imf-uk-rachel-reeves/?), reducing GDP by 0.3%.\n* Global trade tensions: Ongoing [<u>trade tensions</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/27/rachel-reeves-should-ease-fiscal-rules-to-prevent-emergency-spending-cuts-imf-says?), especially involving US tariffs, could hinder growth in 2026.\n\nWhile there is a possibility for the UK to achieve 2% GDP growth in a given year during the current parliamentary term, especially if global economic conditions improve and domestic policies effectively stimulate growth, the consensus among major economic institutions suggests that such an outcome is uncertain and would require favorable developments on multiple fronts." }, { "id": 38730, "title": "Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% this parliament?", "short_title": "will boat crossings reduce in UK?", "url_title": "will boat crossings reduce in UK?", "slug": "will-boat-crossings-reduce-in-uk", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:27:28.278301Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:32.265431Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-27T15:27:33.666523Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38022, "title": "Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% this parliament?", "created_at": "2025-06-27T15:27:28.279076Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% this parliament?*\n\n\n\nSince 2018, the number of people [<u>crossing the English Channel</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/) in small boats to enter the UK without authorization has risen sharply,[<u> making it a central and contentious issue in British politics</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). These crossings have become a symbol of broader debates around immigration, border security, and asylum policy. Both the previous Conservative and [<u>current Labour governments</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo) have faced intense political pressure to reduce these arrivals, with public opinion and media coverage closely tracking the numbers.\n\n\n\nTrends and Data\n\n* In 2022, Channel crossings [<u>peaked at approximately 46,000</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/), driven largely by a surge in [<u>Albanian arrivals</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n* Crossings fell in 2023, but [<u>rose again in 2024</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), with about 36,800 arrivals—a 25% increase from the previous year.\n* Since Labour took office, [<u>over 20,000 people have crossed in small boats </u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo)within the first five months, exceeding the same period in 2023 but remaining below the 2022 peak.\n* [<u>Early 2025 data</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government) shows further increases, with nearly 1,200 people crossing in a single day in June, the highest daily figure that year.\n\nLabour's Strategy: \n\n* Upon taking office in July 2024, [<u>Labour scrapped the Rwanda plan, criticizing it as a \"gimmick\" </u>](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1040675/uk-labour-party-unveils-its-plan-to-tackle-channel-crossing-networks)and pledging instead to [<u>focus on dismantling smuggling networks that facilitate Channel crossings</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). Labour's approach includes:\n * Establishing a [<u>new Border Security Command </u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/)and recruiting hundreds of specialist investigators.\n * Using [<u>anti-terrorism tactics and expanding police powers to target smuggling gangs, including seizing assets and mobile phones</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n * Increasing [<u>cooperation with European partners</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), such as joint operations with France and security agreements with countries like Iraq and Serbia.\n * Introducing new legislation (the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill) that retains some controversial measures, such as [<u>restricting modern slavery claims and detaining child refugees</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/illegal-migration-labour-starmer-slavery-b2688994.html).\n\n\n\nThe ongoing rise in crossings has intensified scrutiny of Labour's strategy, with critics (including the Conservative opposition) arguing that [<u>abandoning the Rwanda plan has emboldened smugglers and increased arrivals</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government). Labour, meanwhile, maintains that targeting criminal networks and international cooperation will yield results, but acknowledges that [<u>many factors influencing crossings are beyond government control</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **\"Yes\"** if, at any point during the current UK parliamentary term (beginning with the first sitting of Parliament following the 2024 general election and ending on the day Parliament is dissolved), the **total annual number of people detected arriving in the UK via small boat crossings across the English Channel** is at least **50% lower** than the total reported for the year **immediately preceding Labour entering government**.\n\nTo qualify:\n\n* The baseline year for comparison is **calendar year 2023**, during which **29,437 small boat arrivals** were recorded, according to the UK Home Office.\n\n\n* A qualifying reduction would mean **annual small boat arrivals falling to 14,718 or fewer** in any full calendar year during this parliamentary term.\n\n\n* Official figures must come from the **UK Home Office’s published small boat statistics**.\n\n\n\nThis question will resolve as **\"No\"** if no calendar year during this parliamentary term records a reduction in small boat crossings to **14,718 or fewer**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "## *This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Labour reduce small boat crossings in the English Channel by at least 50% this parliament?*\n\n\n\nSince 2018, the number of people [<u>crossing the English Channel</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/) in small boats to enter the UK without authorization has risen sharply,[<u> making it a central and contentious issue in British politics</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). These crossings have become a symbol of broader debates around immigration, border security, and asylum policy. Both the previous Conservative and [<u>current Labour governments</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo) have faced intense political pressure to reduce these arrivals, with public opinion and media coverage closely tracking the numbers.\n\n\n\nTrends and Data\n\n* In 2022, Channel crossings [<u>peaked at approximately 46,000</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/people-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/), driven largely by a surge in [<u>Albanian arrivals</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n* Crossings fell in 2023, but [<u>rose again in 2024</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), with about 36,800 arrivals—a 25% increase from the previous year.\n* Since Labour took office, [<u>over 20,000 people have crossed in small boats </u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwyd47510gyo)within the first five months, exceeding the same period in 2023 but remaining below the 2022 peak.\n* [<u>Early 2025 data</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government) shows further increases, with nearly 1,200 people crossing in a single day in June, the highest daily figure that year.\n\nLabour's Strategy: \n\n* Upon taking office in July 2024, [<u>Labour scrapped the Rwanda plan, criticizing it as a \"gimmick\" </u>](https://www.brusselstimes.com/1040675/uk-labour-party-unveils-its-plan-to-tackle-channel-crossing-networks)and pledging instead to [<u>focus on dismantling smuggling networks that facilitate Channel crossings</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/). Labour's approach includes:\n * Establishing a [<u>new Border Security Command </u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/)and recruiting hundreds of specialist investigators.\n * Using [<u>anti-terrorism tactics and expanding police powers to target smuggling gangs, including seizing assets and mobile phones</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/).\n * Increasing [<u>cooperation with European partners</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/), such as joint operations with France and security agreements with countries like Iraq and Serbia.\n * Introducing new legislation (the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill) that retains some controversial measures, such as [<u>restricting modern slavery claims and detaining child refugees</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/illegal-migration-labour-starmer-slavery-b2688994.html).\n\n\n\nThe ongoing rise in crossings has intensified scrutiny of Labour's strategy, with critics (including the Conservative opposition) arguing that [<u>abandoning the Rwanda plan has emboldened smugglers and increased arrivals</u>](https://www.euronews.com/2025/06/02/uk-migrant-crossings-hit-yearly-high-as-pressure-mounts-on-labour-government). Labour, meanwhile, maintains that targeting criminal networks and international cooperation will yield results, but acknowledges that [<u>many factors influencing crossings are beyond government control</u>](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/commentaries/labours-pledges-on-migration-the-data/)." }, { "id": 38712, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "short_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "url_title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between in Jun-Dec 2025?", "slug": "will-any-new-country-attack-israel-or-iran-between-in-jun-dec-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-25T13:18:37.477599Z", "published_at": "2025-07-01T01:35:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T16:02:04.377712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-01T01:35:47.309967Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-02T01:35:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.403513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37997, "title": "Will any new country attack Israel or Iran between June and December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-25T13:18:37.478070Z", "open_time": "2025-07-02T01:35:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T01:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any country besides Israel, Iran, Palestine, or the US attacks Israel or Iran.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an attack is defined as either:\n\n* A kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear attack targeting officials, infrastructure, or the military, occurring within the borders of Israel or Iran. (See Fine Print for detailed explanation of Israel's borders.)\n* At least 20 official military personnel entering the internationally recognised land borders of Israel or Iran, without the Israel or Iran's overt permission.", "fine_print": "* Attacks that are part of covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n* Attacks targeting officials of Israel or Iran will count even if they are conducted outside of each countries internationally recognised borders.\n* For the purposes of this question, Israel's borders are defined based on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will count.\n* The attacking country has to either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its official armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) unambiguously attribute it to its armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* For the purposes of this question, a country is a UN member or non-member observer state.", "post_id": 38712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752681713.948112, "end_time": 1754067459.753, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752681713.948112, "end_time": 1754067459.753, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.16729418132686583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.7845989787324394, 0.14645117361277293, 0.9902576606611411, 0.0, 0.8391482518101392, 0.9105903213533636, 0.7160878422806511, 1.1965363938281606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.2192111828204864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402370894266256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3169425918661722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries. On June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq." }, { "id": 38693, "title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "slug": "will-faith-kipyegon-break-the-4-minute-mile-on-june-26-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:35:31.575330Z", "published_at": "2025-06-25T00:28:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:40.361342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-25T00:28:52.255232Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-27T03:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-25T01:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37952, "title": "Will Faith Kipyegon break the 4-minute mile on June 26, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:35:31.576089Z", "open_time": "2025-06-25T01:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-25T02:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-27T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-26T17:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-26T18:11:15.652124Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-26T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Washington Post: [A woman has never run a sub-4-minute mile. Will Faith Kipyegon be the first?](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/) \n\n> The 31-year-old will need to shave just under eight seconds off her record time of 4 minutes 7.64 seconds when she makes her attempt Thursday on the first of a three-day window in the Nike-sponsored Breaking4 race in Paris. While that is a daunting task, she will have plenty of help — ranging from cutting-edge attire and a public relations push to old-school strategy such as drafting behind pacesetters.\n\n> As with Eliud Kipchoge’s Breaking2 sub-two-hour marathon in 2019, a world record is unlikely to be recognized by World Athletics, track and field’s governing body, because the event isn’t sanctioned and pacesetters will be used. That, however, is beside the point with this effort. Kipyegon and the scientists who have researched her technique are focused on the long-range implications.\n\n> Studying the energy she used during her mile record, the scientists found she could run roughly a 3:59.37 mile “with drafting provided by one pacer in front and one in back who change out with two other pacers at 800 meters.” It’s as simple as “the runner in front literally pushing air molecules out of the way,” Rodger Kram, a University of Colorado emeritus professor in integrative physiology and one of the authors of the paper, said in an interview.\n\nRunner's World: [Faith Kipyegon Aims to Become the First Woman to Run a Sub-4-Minute Mile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/)\n\n> On Thursday, June 26 in Paris, Faith Kipyegon will try to make history on the track.\n\n> In an Nike-supported event similar to those in which Eliud Kipchoge attempted to break the 2-hour marathon barrier, Kipyegon will try to become the first woman in history to run a sub-4-minute mile. The modified time trial will take place at the Stade Sébastien Charléty in Paris, the same track where she broke both the 1500-meter and 5,000-meter world records.\n\n> The 31-year-old Kenyan already owns three Olympic gold medals in 1500 meters and the [world record in the mile](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a44614392/kipyegon-mile-world-record-hiltz-american-record/)—she blitzed a 4:07.64 clocking two years ago in Monaco to obliterate the previous record by more than four and a half seconds—but now she’ll attempt the quest of dropping nearly 8 more seconds to break the 4-minute barrier.\n\nThe event can be viewed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZNHaUtLCnA).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Faith Kipyegon runs a sub-4-minute mile on July 26, 2025 at Nike's [Breaking4](https://about.nike.com/en/topics/breaking4) event. ", "fine_print": "If the event is postponed, resolution will wait up to another two days. If the event is not held before June 29, 2025, the question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 38693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750923342.6, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750923342.6, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.4644794903675393 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.92316783725243, "peer_score": 1.2789212996348969, "coverage": 0.8014197869284518, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8014197869284518, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": -37.92316783725243, "peer_archived_score": 1.2789212996348969, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Washington Post: [A woman has never run a sub-4-minute mile. Will Faith Kipyegon be the first?](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/) \n\n> The 31-year-old will need to shave just under eight seconds off her record time of 4 minutes 7.64 seconds when she makes her attempt Thursday on the first of a three-day window in the Nike-sponsored Breaking4 race in Paris. While that is a daunting task, she will have plenty of help — ranging from cutting-edge attire and a public relations push to old-school strategy such as drafting behind pacesetters.\n\n> As with Eliud Kipchoge’s Breaking2 sub-two-hour marathon in 2019, a world record is unlikely to be recognized by World Athletics, track and field’s governing body, because the event isn’t sanctioned and pacesetters will be used. That, however, is beside the point with this effort. Kipyegon and the scientists who have researched her technique are focused on the long-range implications.\n\n> Studying the energy she used during her mile record, the scientists found she could run roughly a 3:59.37 mile “with drafting provided by one pacer in front and one in back who change out with two other pacers at 800 meters.” It’s as simple as “the runner in front literally pushing air molecules out of the way,” Rodger Kram, a University of Colorado emeritus professor in integrative physiology and one of the authors of the paper, said in an interview.\n\nRunner's World: [Faith Kipyegon Aims to Become the First Woman to Run a Sub-4-Minute Mile](https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2025/06/24/faith-kipyegon-4-minute-mile-run/)\n\n> On Thursday, June 26 in Paris, Faith Kipyegon will try to make history on the track.\n\n> In an Nike-supported event similar to those in which Eliud Kipchoge attempted to break the 2-hour marathon barrier, Kipyegon will try to become the first woman in history to run a sub-4-minute mile. The modified time trial will take place at the Stade Sébastien Charléty in Paris, the same track where she broke both the 1500-meter and 5,000-meter world records.\n\n> The 31-year-old Kenyan already owns three Olympic gold medals in 1500 meters and the [world record in the mile](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a44614392/kipyegon-mile-world-record-hiltz-american-record/)—she blitzed a 4:07.64 clocking two years ago in Monaco to obliterate the previous record by more than four and a half seconds—but now she’ll attempt the quest of dropping nearly 8 more seconds to break the 4-minute barrier.\n\nThe event can be viewed on Youtube [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZNHaUtLCnA)." }, { "id": 38692, "title": "Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-new-york-city-hit-100-degrees-fahrenheit-before-august-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:03:36.192383Z", "published_at": "2025-06-24T19:19:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T05:42:04.898583Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-24T19:20:14Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T09:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T21:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37951, "title": "Will New York City hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit before August 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-24T19:03:36.192816Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T21:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-26T19:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Central Park Hits Its Hottest Temperature Since 2012](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/weather/new-york-city-temperatures-heat-today.html) | New York’s official temperature gauge hit 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. It could climb even higher.\n\n> A thermometer at Belvedere Castle in Central Park, the official weather station for the city, reached 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon for the first time since July 18, 2012. The last time the park even hit 98 degrees was several years ago, on June 30, 2021.\n\n> Early in the day, Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the New York office of the National Weather Service, said he thought it was possible Central Park could reach as high as 102 degrees on Tuesday.\n\n> The hottest it has ever reached in Central Park was 106 degrees, on July 9, 1936.\n\n> Just by reaching 97 degrees in the afternoon, Mr. Ramsey said, Central Park had already surpassed a record for the date that had stood since 1888.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 24, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, the National Weather Service at its Central Park, NY weather station reports a daily temperature maximum of greater than or equal to 100° Fahrenheit (37.78° Celcius), according to data presented at the [Data Calendar for New York City](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYC\\&network=NY_ASOS) at Iowa State Mesonet.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38692, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752644514.407781, "end_time": 1752748391.808, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752644514.407781, "end_time": 1752748391.808, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5242945142419292 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3278250896469412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.746552312116484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26535223625325605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6372077769074389 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times: [Central Park Hits Its Hottest Temperature Since 2012](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/24/weather/new-york-city-temperatures-heat-today.html) | New York’s official temperature gauge hit 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon. It could climb even higher.\n\n> A thermometer at Belvedere Castle in Central Park, the official weather station for the city, reached 99 degrees on Tuesday afternoon for the first time since July 18, 2012. The last time the park even hit 98 degrees was several years ago, on June 30, 2021.\n\n> Early in the day, Bryan Ramsey, a meteorologist at the New York office of the National Weather Service, said he thought it was possible Central Park could reach as high as 102 degrees on Tuesday.\n\n> The hottest it has ever reached in Central Park was 106 degrees, on July 9, 1936.\n\n> Just by reaching 97 degrees in the afternoon, Mr. Ramsey said, Central Park had already surpassed a record for the date that had stood since 1888." }, { "id": 38691, "title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will Israel strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-israel-strike-the-iranian-military-in-iran-again-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 24, 2025, Israel and Iran [reached a ceasefire](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdr3yxgjd6ro) mediated by the US. However, soon after the ceasefire took effect, [both countries violated it](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685a87c98f087d712b381a79#block-685a87c98f087d712b381a79). [According to Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb#block-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb)\n\n> The ceasefire was set for 07.00 this morning. At 03.00, Israel forcefully attacked in the heart of Tehran, struck regime targets and eliminated hundreds of Basij and Iranian security forces personnel.\n> \n> Shortly before the ceasefire was due to take effect, Iran launched a barrage of missiles, one of which took the lives of four of our citizens in Be’er Sheva. The ceasefire took effect at 07.00.\n> \n> At 07.06, Iran launched one missile at Israeli territory, and two additional missiles at 10.25. These missiles were either intercepted or fell in open areas, and caused neither casualties nor damage.\n> \n> In response to Iran’s violations, the Air Force destroyed a radar installation near Tehran.\n> \n> Pursuant to the conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel has refrained from additional attacks.\n> \n> In the conversation, President Trump expressed his great appreciation for Israel, which achieved all of its objectives for the war, as well as his confidence in the stability of the ceasefire.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 25, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, Israel publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military within the geographic territory of Iran.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n\nIranian nuclear facilities and the personnel who work there count as military targets. \n\nA public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.", "post_id": 38691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752705398.487937, "end_time": 1753144981.472, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752705398.487937, "end_time": 1753144981.472, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2442259912670268 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4785213967402207, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.13240711416195272, 0.10952114625365335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0560188304805835, 0.4892359292110529, 0.9057282670029041, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2074154151975733, 0.7040312082123765, 0.03992756526622757, 0.7407932086390123, 0.0, 3.496335363038603, 0.0, 0.149274602762692, 0.0, 0.060784385723977465, 0.6823618305210133, 0.0, 0.5748220834312915, 0.24862657099109473, 0.0, 1.7376486951940862, 0.16418673760784558, 0.011197807087619483, 0.7165542103943734, 0.0, 0.8378491376399544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22567992891996577, 0.6340758590568641, 1.3362695855571622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013327313936343727, 0.06596805589792076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023617499732215674, 0.03634445231070457, 0.08119134173251978, 0.02552362291865424, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006467691301228282, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1638498356873926, 0.0, 0.0022471014753314175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046610734513600066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020857329520919676, 0.0, 0.0021358479068187765, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.3540001344847823, 0.0010784108305004398, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015781900002267545, 0.01012203775190266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09645855071441094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08008438141160448 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 424, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 24, 2025, Israel and Iran [reached a ceasefire](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdr3yxgjd6ro) mediated by the US. However, soon after the ceasefire took effect, [both countries violated it](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685a87c98f087d712b381a79#block-685a87c98f087d712b381a79). [According to Israel](https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/jun/24/israel-iran-war-live-updates-trump-declares-ceasefire-tehran-attack-us-base-qatar?CMP=share_btn_url\\&page=with%3Ablock-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb#block-685aa14f8f087d712b381bbb)\n\n> The ceasefire was set for 07.00 this morning. At 03.00, Israel forcefully attacked in the heart of Tehran, struck regime targets and eliminated hundreds of Basij and Iranian security forces personnel.\n> \n> Shortly before the ceasefire was due to take effect, Iran launched a barrage of missiles, one of which took the lives of four of our citizens in Be’er Sheva. The ceasefire took effect at 07.00.\n> \n> At 07.06, Iran launched one missile at Israeli territory, and two additional missiles at 10.25. These missiles were either intercepted or fell in open areas, and caused neither casualties nor damage.\n> \n> In response to Iran’s violations, the Air Force destroyed a radar installation near Tehran.\n> \n> Pursuant to the conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, Israel has refrained from additional attacks.\n> \n> In the conversation, President Trump expressed his great appreciation for Israel, which achieved all of its objectives for the war, as well as his confidence in the stability of the ceasefire." }, { "id": 38687, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before Sep 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-strike-the-iranian-military-in-iran-again-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-23T18:30:42.853774Z", "published_at": "2025-06-25T12:02:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-15T01:39:23.495614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-25T12:02:32.379172Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-26T12:02:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.403513Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37943, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran again, before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-23T18:30:42.854217Z", "open_time": "2025-06-26T12:02:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-30T12:02:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The Iranian attack came after Trump [warned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-warned-iran-retaliate-us/story?id=123128251) Iran not to retaliate. However, at the time of the attack, some analysts hypothesized the Iranian response to be an attempt at deescalation, due to Iran warning about the specific targets of the attack in advance, with the US's possible further response unknown. According to the[ New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news):\n\n> Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.\n\n[](mailto:?subject=%3Cstrong%3EUS%20used%20six%20B-2%20bombers%20to%20drop%2012%20%22bunker%20busters%22%20on%20Fordow%2C%20official%20says%3C%2Fstrong%3E\\&body=Checkout%20the%20latest%20news%20from%20CNN%3A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fworld%2Flive-news%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk%23cmc70nvgj00203b6nlvrp7t6g \"Share with email\")", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 23, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military within the geographic territory of Iran.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n\nIranian nuclear facilities count as military targets. \n\nA public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.", "post_id": 38687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752543553.155152, "end_time": 1753789570.493, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.162 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752543553.155152, "end_time": 1753789570.493, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.162 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.838, 0.162 ], "means": [ 0.22797596043114998 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 1.6266048770682544, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8678805246878545, 0.48480115213825536, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7352531673472349, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4700931290231667, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Iran-Israel war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) began June 13, 2025, with Israel attacking Iranian military targets and nuclear facilities, killing top military leaders, regime officials and nuclear scientists. In response Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel. At the time of this question, both sides have continued striking the other, causing daily casualties and damage in both countries.\n\nOn June 21, 2025, the United States joined the conflict by [striking](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk) nuclear facilities in Iran with six B-2 bombers dropping a dozen GBU-57A/B \"bunker buster\" bombs and submarines launching 30 Tomahawk missiles. Two days later, Iran [retaliated](https://fox8.com/news/iran-retaliates-launching-missile-attack-on-us-base-in-qatar/) by launching missile attacks on US bases in Qatar and Iraq. The Iranian attack came after Trump [warned](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-warned-iran-retaliate-us/story?id=123128251) Iran not to retaliate. However, at the time of the attack, some analysts hypothesized the Iranian response to be an attempt at deescalation, due to Iran warning about the specific targets of the attack in advance, with the US's possible further response unknown. According to the[ New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/06/23/world/iran-trump-israel-news):\n\n> Three Iranian officials familiar with the plans said that Iran gave advanced notice that attacks were coming, as a way to minimize casualties. The officials said Iran symbolically needed to strike back at the U.S. but at the same time carry it out in a way that allowed all sides an exit ramp; they described it as a similar strategy to 2020 when Iran gave Iraq heads up before firing ballistic missiles at an American base in Iraq following the assassination of its top general.\n\n[](mailto:?subject=%3Cstrong%3EUS%20used%20six%20B-2%20bombers%20to%20drop%2012%20%22bunker%20busters%22%20on%20Fordow%2C%20official%20says%3C%2Fstrong%3E\\&body=Checkout%20the%20latest%20news%20from%20CNN%3A%0Ahttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2Fworld%2Flive-news%2Fisrael-iran-conflict-06-21-25-intl-hnk%23cmc70nvgj00203b6nlvrp7t6g \"Share with email\")" }, { "id": 38685, "title": "[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Trump Appear on NYT July 4th Cover?", "url_title": "Will Trump Appear on NYT July 4th Cover?", "slug": "will-trump-appear-on-nyt-july-4th-cover", "author_id": 271410, "author_username": "WasteTimeContinuum", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-23T01:47:26.159192Z", "published_at": "2025-06-23T17:34:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T07:06:11.244782Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-23T17:35:34Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T17:34:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37938, "title": "[Short fuse] Will an image of Donald Trump appear on the front page of the New York Times on July 4, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-23T01:47:26.159641Z", "open_time": "2025-06-24T17:34:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-25T17:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T07:05:59.162552Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-04T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The front page of *The New York Times* on Independence Day often serves as a symbolic snapshot of the nation's political and cultural mood. Historically, US presidents, especially during moments of high public interest, are frequently featured on the front page, either through images or headlines that reflect their influence on national affairs. In the case of Donald Trump, media coverage has been particularly polarized and omnipresent, with his image often acting as a lightning rod for both supporters and critics.\n\nThe presence (or absence) of the sitting president on the front page of *The New York Times* on July 4th can be seen as a subtle indicator of how the media, and the public consciousness, are processing his presidency. Trump's unprecedented second term has already seen a flurry of dramatic developments, legal and political battles, and international headlines. This question explores whether that visibility will crystallize into front-page prominence on a symbolically charged day in American media.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if *The New York Times* print front page dated July 4, 2025, includes a clearly identifiable image of Donald Trump. The image may be a photograph, illustration, or other visual depiction, but it must depict Trump himself, not a symbolic or metaphorical stand-in.\n\nIf different editions (New York, National, International) have different covers, any edition with US national circulation will count.", "fine_print": "The front page of The New York Times can be found [here](https://www.nytimes.com/section/todayspaper). Select the appropriate date in the *The Times in Print For* box, below \"Todays Paper\" and view the images of the print front page displayed on the side.", "post_id": 38685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751598226.396783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.588 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751598226.396783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.588 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.6518918722921326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7162969290974602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 1.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -43.27709599309024, "peer_score": 14.74544887276748, "coverage": 0.999494481245858, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999494481245858, "spot_peer_score": 32.03477085264742, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "baseline_archived_score": -43.27709599309024, "peer_archived_score": 14.74544887276748, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.03477085264742, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The front page of *The New York Times* on Independence Day often serves as a symbolic snapshot of the nation's political and cultural mood. Historically, US presidents, especially during moments of high public interest, are frequently featured on the front page, either through images or headlines that reflect their influence on national affairs. In the case of Donald Trump, media coverage has been particularly polarized and omnipresent, with his image often acting as a lightning rod for both supporters and critics.\n\nThe presence (or absence) of the sitting president on the front page of *The New York Times* on July 4th can be seen as a subtle indicator of how the media, and the public consciousness, are processing his presidency. Trump's unprecedented second term has already seen a flurry of dramatic developments, legal and political battles, and international headlines. This question explores whether that visibility will crystallize into front-page prominence on a symbolically charged day in American media." }, { "id": 38680, "title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the UNIFIL mission at the next UNIFIL review meeting in August?", "short_title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the mandate of the UNIFIL mission?", "url_title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the mandate of the UNIFIL mission?", "slug": "will-the-un-security-council-reauthorize-the-mandate-of-the-unifil-mission", "author_id": 272660, "author_username": "Sitric", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-22T18:13:56.944935Z", "published_at": "2025-06-29T11:13:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-05T13:29:16.746871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-29T11:14:32.332558Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:11:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:13:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37912, "title": "Will the UN Security Council reauthorize the UNIFIL mission at the next UNIFIL review meeting in August?", "created_at": "2025-06-22T18:13:56.945479Z", "open_time": "2025-06-30T11:13:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-04T11:13:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T11:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-31T18:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[UNIFIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon) was established in 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace and security, and assist the Lebanese government in restoring its authority. Its mandate is typically renewed annually by the UN Security Council. Renewals often occur at the end of August.\n\nGeopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, and the interests of key Security Council members (United States), could influence the renewal decision. In recent years, member states have disagreed on the mission's rules of engagement and freedom of movement. Israel is also likely to lobby the USA to veto the mission as part of a wider campaign against the United Nations and other international bodies in the area it sees as being against it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the UN Security Council passes a resolution before September 2025 that reauthorizes or extends UNIFIL’s mandate.", "fine_print": "The date used for resolution will be based on the official timestamp of the Security Council's adoption of a renewal resolution, as documented in official UN records or major reputable sources.", "post_id": 38680, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751722146.115055, "end_time": 1754007257.878, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751722146.115055, "end_time": 1754007257.878, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6829943252690819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[UNIFIL](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Interim_Force_in_Lebanon) was established in 1978 to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, restore international peace and security, and assist the Lebanese government in restoring its authority. Its mandate is typically renewed annually by the UN Security Council. Renewals often occur at the end of August.\n\nGeopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah, and the interests of key Security Council members (United States), could influence the renewal decision. In recent years, member states have disagreed on the mission's rules of engagement and freedom of movement. Israel is also likely to lobby the USA to veto the mission as part of a wider campaign against the United Nations and other international bodies in the area it sees as being against it." }, { "id": 38679, "title": "Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?", "short_title": "IAEA verifies Iran uranium location before Sep 2025??", "url_title": "IAEA verifies Iran uranium location before Sep 2025??", "slug": "iaea-verifies-iran-uranium-location-before-sep-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-22T16:30:40.904835Z", "published_at": "2025-07-11T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T20:29:01.928516Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-11T16:07:42.814388Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:45:02.863071Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:45:02.863071Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37911, "title": "Will the International Atomic Energy Agency verify Iran's weapon-grade uranium stockpile before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-22T16:30:40.905239Z", "open_time": "2025-07-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 17, the [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)](https://www.iaea.org) estimates that Iran has around 409 kilograms (900 pounds) of weapons-grade (enriched) uranium (WGU):\n\n> 27\\. As of 17 May 2025, the Agency has estimated that the total enriched uranium stockpile in the form of UF6 of 8413.3 kg comprised: \\[...] 408.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235.\n\n##### [IAEA Board of Governors Report GOV/2025/24](https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf)\n\nThe IAEA monitors and verifies Iranian nuclear activity to ensure compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which Iran signed on July 14, 2015. Part of this compliance means that the location of Iran's WGU is to be verified by the IAEA, however in light of the ongoing [Iran-Israel War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Israel_war), whereby several Iranian nuclear sites were hit by Israeli airstrikes, the location of the its WGU stockpile has been unaccounted for by the IAEA:\n\n> As Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites continue, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, says in an interview with Bloomberg that the UN nuclear watchdog cannot currently verify or guarantee the safety or even the whereabouts of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.\n\n> Asked whether Iran’s supply of 60% enriched uranium remains safely located at the underground Isfahan facility, which Israel has repeatedly struck since it began its campaign on Friday, Grossi replies: “To say safely, I’m not so sure.”\n\n> Some 400 kg of uranium, enough for 10 nuclear warheads, was previously stored under an IAEA seal in Isfahan. “In principle, it is stored there,” he says.\n\n##### Times of Israel: [‘Not so sure’: ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)[UN nuclear watchdog chief says can’t verify the safety or whereabouts of Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verifies that Iran's stockpile of weapons-grade uranium (uranium enriched up to 60% U-235) is at least 400kg.\n\nIf the IAEA verifies that it is less than 400kg or if it does not publish any new reports on the matter, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38679, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 17, the [International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)](https://www.iaea.org) estimates that Iran has around 409 kilograms (900 pounds) of weapons-grade (enriched) uranium (WGU):\n\n> 27\\. As of 17 May 2025, the Agency has estimated that the total enriched uranium stockpile in the form of UF6 of 8413.3 kg comprised: \\[...] 408.6 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235.\n\n##### [IAEA Board of Governors Report GOV/2025/24](https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/25/06/gov2025-24.pdf)\n\nThe IAEA monitors and verifies Iranian nuclear activity to ensure compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which Iran signed on July 14, 2015. Part of this compliance means that the location of Iran's WGU is to be verified by the IAEA, however in light of the ongoing [Iran-Israel War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–Israel_war), whereby several Iranian nuclear sites were hit by Israeli airstrikes, the location of the its WGU stockpile has been unaccounted for by the IAEA:\n\n> As Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites continue, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, says in an interview with Bloomberg that the UN nuclear watchdog cannot currently verify or guarantee the safety or even the whereabouts of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile.\n\n> Asked whether Iran’s supply of 60% enriched uranium remains safely located at the underground Isfahan facility, which Israel has repeatedly struck since it began its campaign on Friday, Grossi replies: “To say safely, I’m not so sure.”\n\n> Some 400 kg of uranium, enough for 10 nuclear warheads, was previously stored under an IAEA seal in Isfahan. “In principle, it is stored there,” he says.\n\n##### Times of Israel: [‘Not so sure’: ](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)[UN nuclear watchdog chief says can’t verify the safety or whereabouts of Iran’s near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/amid-strikes-un-nuclear-watchdog-chief-not-so-sure-where-irans-near-weapons-grade-uranium-stockpile-is/)" }, { "id": 38671, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "slug": "will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2025-06-20T21:57:16.852714Z", "published_at": "2025-06-21T00:31:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-15T11:10:19.845765Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-21T00:31:22.785992Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-21T13:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-16T22:36:49.350085Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37895, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-20T21:57:16.853096Z", "open_time": "2025-06-21T13:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-22T13:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nOn June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n\nUS President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n\n> We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n\nOn June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.", "fine_print": "To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n\nFleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.", "post_id": 38671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752584707.67, "end_time": 1753174548.542, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752584707.67, "end_time": 1753174548.542, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.267043868645127 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.23243113524525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0, 1.0, 0.4414177989399567, 0.0, 0.6426053856489313, 0.0, 0.03380766426233947, 0.3286647279806401, 0.6719996467926511, 0.0, 0.9491575985942767, 1.0835809909095928, 0.28217551895796505, 0.14733965230128057, 1.423052663316251, 0.3542463301646753, 0.0011756116749470711, 0.037861112940804624, 0.0, 1.0924733489743907, 0.6275971475575431, 0.0, 0.010217135346786867, 0.0, 0.05801885663667797, 0.0, 0.5524220607330474, 0.1953561485719773, 0.0, 0.013816868512948603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07034285805596019, 0.0, 0.052332631715494016, 0.0300971136065479, 0.0, 0.16043171008124435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008686660616741733, 0.24137310911316218, 0.5275834762539635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07809616947858947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023612791704479896, 0.026706158979239943, 0.0, 0.7264075074201146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002444497044844799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07086722813984636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09434453935808916, 0.0, 0.10344231989096485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5857488637089977 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 143, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nOn June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n\nUS President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n\n> We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n\nOn June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign." } ] }
