Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6761, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41980, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 60.00% on 2026-02-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-attack-iran-before-april-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:59:12.115351Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T22:05:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-02T23:36:00.080605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:59:21.468913Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T23:35:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T23:35:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-11T06:27:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T22:05:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41719, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 60.00% on 2026-02-11 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:59:12.115703Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T22:05:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T23:35:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T23:35:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-11T06:27:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T23:35:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T23:35:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41594\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-02-01: 60.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Iran's territory or military forces, according to credible sources.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Iran's territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n> \n> Decades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n> \n> In June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n> \n> In December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n> \n> U.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n> \n> [According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n> \n> > Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41594,\"question_id\":41340,\"last_cp\":0.6}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41594) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-02-11 06:27:19 is higher than 60.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 60.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-02-11 06:27:19, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41980, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770075148.64788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770075148.64788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41333333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5866666666666667, 0.41333333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.4191395275285419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41594\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-02-01: 60.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Iran's territory or military forces, according to credible sources.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Iran's territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n> \n> Decades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n> \n> In June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n> \n> In December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n> \n> U.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n> \n> [According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n> \n> > Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41594,\"question_id\":41340,\"last_cp\":0.6}}`" }, { "id": 41975, "title": "Will WDAY's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?", "short_title": "WDAY's close price rises?", "url_title": "WDAY's close price rises?", "slug": "wdays-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:57:59.831132Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T19:49:22Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-03T03:15:29.233392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:58:08.582523Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T21:19:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T21:19:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T07:39:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T19:49:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41714, "title": "Will WDAY's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?", "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:57:59.831475Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T19:49:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T21:19:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T21:19:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T07:39:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T21:19:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T21:19:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Workday, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WDAY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:45) is 175.63. You can find more information about Workday, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDAY\n\nWorkday, Inc. provides enterprise cloud applications in the United States and internationally. The company offers a suite of financial management applications to maintain accounting information; manage financial processes, such as payables and receivables; identify real-time financial, operational, and management insights; perform financial consolidation; reduce time-to-close; promote internal control and auditability; and achieve consistency across finance operations. It also provides spend management solutions that help organizations to streamline supplier selection and contract management, build and execute sourcing events, such as requests for proposals, and manage indirect spend; expense management solutions to submit and approve expenses; and a suite of human capital management applications that enables HR teams to hire, onboard, pay, develop, reskill, and provide employee experiences. In addition, the company offers planning applications; and applications for analytics and reporting comprising augmented analytics to surface insights to the line of business in simple-to-understand stories. Further, it provides supply chain and inventory solutions to healthcare organizations; solutions to manage the end-to-end student and faculty lifecycle; Workday Extend for customers and their developers to build custom applications; and Workday Illuminate, which helps customers accelerate manual tasks, assist employees, and transform business processes. The company serves the professional and business services, financial services, healthcare, education, government, technology, media, retail, and hospitality industries. It sells its solutions through its direct sales organization. The company was formerly known as North Tahoe Power Tools, Inc. and changed its name to Workday, Inc. in July 2005. Workday, Inc. was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Pleasanton, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WDAY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WDAY. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-02-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "WDAY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41975, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770066576.666133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.505 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770066576.666133, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.505 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.495, 0.505 ], "means": [ 0.5081666666666668 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Workday, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WDAY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:45) is 175.63. You can find more information about Workday, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WDAY\n\nWorkday, Inc. provides enterprise cloud applications in the United States and internationally. The company offers a suite of financial management applications to maintain accounting information; manage financial processes, such as payables and receivables; identify real-time financial, operational, and management insights; perform financial consolidation; reduce time-to-close; promote internal control and auditability; and achieve consistency across finance operations. It also provides spend management solutions that help organizations to streamline supplier selection and contract management, build and execute sourcing events, such as requests for proposals, and manage indirect spend; expense management solutions to submit and approve expenses; and a suite of human capital management applications that enables HR teams to hire, onboard, pay, develop, reskill, and provide employee experiences. In addition, the company offers planning applications; and applications for analytics and reporting comprising augmented analytics to surface insights to the line of business in simple-to-understand stories. Further, it provides supply chain and inventory solutions to healthcare organizations; solutions to manage the end-to-end student and faculty lifecycle; Workday Extend for customers and their developers to build custom applications; and Workday Illuminate, which helps customers accelerate manual tasks, assist employees, and transform business processes. The company serves the professional and business services, financial services, healthcare, education, government, technology, media, retail, and hospitality industries. It sells its solutions through its direct sales organization. The company was formerly known as North Tahoe Power Tools, Inc. and changed its name to Workday, Inc. in July 2005. 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It's ticker is ALGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:48) is 163.03. You can find more information about Align Technology, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALGN\n\nAlign Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ALGN\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ALGN. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-02-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is ALGN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:48) is 163.03. You can find more information about Align Technology, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALGN\n\nAlign Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. 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It's ticker is AAPL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:57) is 259.48. You can find more information about Apple Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL\n\nApple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. 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It's ticker is AAPL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:57) is 259.48. You can find more information about Apple Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL\n\nApple Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets smartphones, personal computers, tablets, wearables, and accessories worldwide. The company offers iPhone, a line of smartphones; Mac, a line of personal computers; iPad, a line of multi-purpose tablets; and wearables, home, and accessories comprising AirPods, Apple Vision Pro, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, and HomePod, as well as Apple branded and third-party accessories. It also provides AppleCare support and cloud services; and operates various platforms, including the App Store that allow customers to discover and download applications and digital content, such as books, music, video, games, and podcasts, as well as advertising services include third-party licensing arrangements and its own advertising platforms. In addition, the company offers various subscription-based services, such as Apple Arcade, a game subscription service; Apple Fitness+, a personalized fitness service; Apple Music, which offers users a curated listening experience with on-demand radio stations; Apple News+, a subscription news and magazine service; Apple TV, which offers exclusive original content and live sports; Apple Card, a co-branded credit card; and Apple Pay, a cashless payment service, as well as licenses its intellectual property. The company serves consumers, and small and mid-sized businesses; and the education, enterprise, and government markets. It distributes third-party applications for its products through the App Store. The company also sells its products through its retail and online stores, and direct sales force; and third-party cellular network carriers and resellers. The company was formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc. and changed its name to Apple Inc. in January 2007. Apple Inc. was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Cupertino, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"AAPL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41963, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-02-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Starmer leave office in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Starmer leave office in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-starmer-leave-office-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:55:04.693276Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T11:51:05Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-02T13:22:00.246636Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:55:13.920015Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T13:21:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T13:21:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T07:44:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T11:51:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41702, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-02-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:55:04.693643Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T11:51:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T13:21:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T13:21:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T07:44:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T13:21:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T13:21:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40967\n- Original question title: Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-02-01: 34.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Keir Starmer]() is the Prime Minister of United Kingdom and leader of the Labour Party. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Starmer has faced immense backlash and unpopularity from across British politics, with mass public dissatisfaction on nearly every issue. As of December 2025, Starmer faces an immense -50 [approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), with some polls reaching as low as -60.\n> \n> Facing pressure from both the right wing Reform UK and the left wing Green Party, Labour's polling numbers have steadily declined from the already historically low 33.7% election victory, [to an average of 20%](https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi), with some polls placing the party as low as 14%.\n> \n> Due to Starmer's immense unpopularity, speculation has emerged of a leadership challenge, with contenders such as [Andy Burnham](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgq4zd0lx12t) and [Wes Streeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v124znrgmo) emerging as contenders. Media has since repeatedly speculated on Starmer's prospects as leader, focusing on the possibility for him to be ousted following a potentially disastrous performance in the [2026 Local Elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40967,\"question_id\":40675,\"last_cp\":0.34}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40967) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-02-15 07:44:03 is higher than 34.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 34.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-02-15 07:44:03, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Starmer leave office in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41963, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770037291.99263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.395 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770037291.99263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.395 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4846646846077734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 15.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40967\n- Original question title: Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-02-01: 34.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Keir Starmer]() is the Prime Minister of United Kingdom and leader of the Labour Party. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Starmer has faced immense backlash and unpopularity from across British politics, with mass public dissatisfaction on nearly every issue. As of December 2025, Starmer faces an immense -50 [approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), with some polls reaching as low as -60.\n> \n> Facing pressure from both the right wing Reform UK and the left wing Green Party, Labour's polling numbers have steadily declined from the already historically low 33.7% election victory, [to an average of 20%](https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi), with some polls placing the party as low as 14%.\n> \n> Due to Starmer's immense unpopularity, speculation has emerged of a leadership challenge, with contenders such as [Andy Burnham](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgq4zd0lx12t) and [Wes Streeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v124znrgmo) emerging as contenders. Media has since repeatedly speculated on Starmer's prospects as leader, focusing on the possibility for him to be ousted following a potentially disastrous performance in the [2026 Local Elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40967,\"question_id\":40675,\"last_cp\":0.34}}`" }, { "id": 41960, "title": "Will BAC's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?", "short_title": "BAC's close price rises?", "url_title": "BAC's close price rises?", "slug": "bacs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:54:21.999422Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T10:38:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-02T12:09:00.132174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:54:31.543479Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T12:08:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T12:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T08:25:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T10:38:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41699, "title": "Will BAC's market close price on 2026-02-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?", "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:54:21.999771Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T10:38:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T12:08:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T12:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T08:25:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T12:08:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T12:08:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Bank of America Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BAC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:44) is 53.2. You can find more information about Bank of America Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC\n\nBank of America Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services for individual consumers, small and middle-market businesses, institutional investors, large corporations, and governments worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Consumer Banking, Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM), Global Banking, and Global Markets. The Consumer Banking segment offers traditional and money market savings accounts, certificates of deposit and IRAs, checking accounts, and investment accounts and products; credit and debit cards; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and direct and indirect loans, such as automotive, recreational vehicle, and consumer personal loans. The GWIM segment provides investment management, brokerage, banking, and trust and retirement products and services; wealth management solutions; and customized solutions, including specialty asset management services. The Global Banking segment offers lending products and services, including commercial loans, leases, commitment facilities, trade finance, and commercial real estate and asset-based lending; treasury solutions, such as treasury management, foreign exchange, short-term investing options, and merchant services; working capital management solutions; debt and equity underwriting and distribution, and merger-related and other advisory services; and fixed-income and equity research services. The Global Markets segment provides market-making, financing, securities clearing, settlement, and custody services; securities and derivative products; and risk management products using interest rate, equity, credit, currency and commodity derivatives, foreign exchange, fixed-income, and mortgage-related products. Bank of America Corporation was founded in 1784 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BAC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BAC. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-02-02, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BAC's close price rises?", "post_id": 41960, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770033654.073612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770033654.073612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5217974624297202 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 10.0, 9.0, 5.0, 20.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bank of America Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BAC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:44) is 53.2. You can find more information about Bank of America Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BAC\n\nBank of America Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides various financial products and services for individual consumers, small and middle-market businesses, institutional investors, large corporations, and governments worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Consumer Banking, Global Wealth & Investment Management (GWIM), Global Banking, and Global Markets. The Consumer Banking segment offers traditional and money market savings accounts, certificates of deposit and IRAs, checking accounts, and investment accounts and products; credit and debit cards; residential mortgages and home equity loans; and direct and indirect loans, such as automotive, recreational vehicle, and consumer personal loans. The GWIM segment provides investment management, brokerage, banking, and trust and retirement products and services; wealth management solutions; and customized solutions, including specialty asset management services. The Global Banking segment offers lending products and services, including commercial loans, leases, commitment facilities, trade finance, and commercial real estate and asset-based lending; treasury solutions, such as treasury management, foreign exchange, short-term investing options, and merchant services; working capital management solutions; debt and equity underwriting and distribution, and merger-related and other advisory services; and fixed-income and equity research services. The Global Markets segment provides market-making, financing, securities clearing, settlement, and custody services; securities and derivative products; and risk management products using interest rate, equity, credit, currency and commodity derivatives, foreign exchange, fixed-income, and mortgage-related products. Bank of America Corporation was founded in 1784 and is based in Charlotte, North Carolina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BAC\"}}`" }, { "id": 41958, "title": "Will SMCI's market close price on 2026-02-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-02-02?", "short_title": "SMCI's close price rises?", "url_title": "SMCI's close price rises?", "slug": "smcis-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:53:52.580418Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T10:20:04Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-02T11:51:00.138263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:54:02.461556Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T11:50:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T11:50:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-14T04:43:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T10:20:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32933, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-02-02T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-28T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-02-07T12:16:52Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:16:44.273506Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T16:36:10.007662Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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It's ticker is SMCI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:49) is 29.11. You can find more information about Super Micro Computer, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI\n\nSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company offers liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also provides workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. 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It's ticker is SMCI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:49) is 29.11. You can find more information about Super Micro Computer, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SMCI\n\nSuper Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company offers liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also provides workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company offers remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. 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It's ticker is UHS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:54) is 201.26. You can find more information about Universal Health Services, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UHS\n\nUniversal Health Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates acute care hospitals, and outpatient and behavioral health care facilities. It operates through Acute Care Hospital Services and Behavioral Health Care Services segments. The company's hospitals offer general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic and coronary care, pediatric, pharmacy, and/or behavioral health services. It also provides commercial health insurance services; and various management services, including central purchasing, information services, finance and control systems, facilities planning, physician recruitment, administrative personnel management, marketing, and public relations services. 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It's ticker is UHS. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-02-01 03:34:54) is 201.26. You can find more information about Universal Health Services, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UHS\n\nUniversal Health Services, Inc., through its subsidiaries, owns and operates acute care hospitals, and outpatient and behavioral health care facilities. It operates through Acute Care Hospital Services and Behavioral Health Care Services segments. The company's hospitals offer general and specialty surgery, internal medicine, obstetrics, emergency room care, radiology, oncology, diagnostic and coronary care, pediatric, pharmacy, and/or behavioral health services. It also provides commercial health insurance services; and various management services, including central purchasing, information services, finance and control systems, facilities planning, physician recruitment, administrative personnel management, marketing, and public relations services. 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41694, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 26.00% on 2026-02-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-02-01T03:53:10.284226Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T09:03:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T10:33:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T10:33:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-15T08:46:18Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T10:33:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T10:33:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173\n- Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-02-01: 26.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n> \n> Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n> \n> Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n> \n> Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41173,\"question_id\":40901,\"last_cp\":0.26}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-02-15 08:46:18 is higher than 26.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 26.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-02-15 08:46:18, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41955, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770027071.153676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.615 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770027071.153676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.615 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.48417728723958664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41173\n- Original question title: Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-02-01: 26.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n> \n> Although carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n> \n> Facing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n> \n> Nonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41173,\"question_id\":40901,\"last_cp\":0.26}}`" }, { "id": 41921, "title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "short_title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "url_title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "slug": "by-the-start-of-the-20282029-school-year-will-a-majority-of-the-20-largest-us-public-school-districts-be-actively-using-an-ai-powered-tutoring-system-for-a-core-subject", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T22:49:06.823746Z", "published_at": "2025-08-19T02:39:59Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T14:18:15.778772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T22:49:15.885589Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-09-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32932, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ben's Testing Area", "slug": "benta", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T02:40:38Z", "close_date": "2026-05-15T02:40:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-04-15T02:41:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-23T02:41:52.567112Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T14:18:15.913272Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "Testing stuff! :D" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32932, "type": "tournament", "name": "Ben's Testing Area", "slug": "benta", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T02:40:38Z", "close_date": "2026-05-15T02:40:47Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-04-15T02:41:18Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-23T02:41:52.567112Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T14:18:15.913272Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "Testing stuff! :D" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41659, "title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T22:49:06.824189Z", "open_time": "2025-08-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-09-16T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-08-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThe \"Tool AI\" scenario envisions AI systems augmenting human teachers by providing personalized, scalable instruction across public education systems. AI tools like Khan Academy’s Khanmigo and other generative tutoring platforms have entered classrooms, but large-scale, district-wide adoption remains a major threshold for institutional change.\n\nHowever, adoption is not guaranteed. Past efforts like [**<u>Ed</u>**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_\\(chatbot\\)), a chatbot introduced in Los Angeles schools, failed due to performance issues and privacy concerns.\n\nRecent developments suggest renewed momentum. In July 2025, the [<u>New York Times reported that **Alpha School**</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/ai-alpha-school-austin-texas.html), a Texas-based charter network, has integrated AI tutoring across core subjects.\n\nThis question tracks whether AI-powered tutoring tools move from small pilots to institutional adoption. In the Tool AI scenario, education systems increasingly use AI tutors to personalize learning, support teachers, and improve student outcomes—especially in under-resourced areas. Widespread adoption by major school districts would signal the scenario’s vision of AI-enhanced education taking root.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the start of the 2028-29 school year, at least 11 of the 20 largest K–12 public school districts in the United States (by student enrollment) have officially adopted and are actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for use in at least one core academic subject.", "fine_print": "* \"Official adoption\" means a district-wide decision documented in publicly available board meeting minutes, press releases, or curriculum guidelines. The system must be made available to a substantial portion of students (e.g., all students in a subject or grade), not just through small-scale pilots.\n* \"AI-powered tutoring system\" refers to a student-facing digital platform that uses artificial intelligence to provide personalized instruction, practice, or feedback in Math, English Language Arts, or Science.\n* A system must be in active use by the start of the 2028–2029 school year. Announced but not yet implemented systems do not count. Neither do implemented systems that were then discontinued, as [occurred ](https://www.the74million.org/article/la-unified-faces-criticism-after-collapse-of-splashy-ai-tool-ed/)in the Los Angeles Unified school district.\n\nFor purposes of this question, the top 20 school districts by enrollment are as follows (based on NCES 2022 data):\n\n1. New York City Public Schools (NY) \n2. Los Angeles Unified (CA)\n3. Clark County (NV)\n4. Miami-Dade (FL)\n5. Broward County (FL)\n6. Hillsborough County (FL)\n7. Chicago Public Schools (IL)\n8. Houston ISD (TX)\n9. Orange County (FL)\n10. Fairfax County (VA)\n11. Gwinnett County (GA)\n12. Dallas ISD (TX)\n13. Wake County (NC)\n14. Montgomery County (MD)\n15. Charlotte-Mecklenburg (NC)\n16. Philadelphia SD (PA)\n17. Palm Beach County (FL)\n18. Duval County (FL)\n19. Cobb County (GA)\n20. San Diego Unified (CA)\n\nIf any districts merge or split before 2028, Metaculus may issue a clarification adjusting this list. ", "short_title": "By the start of the 2028–2029 school year, will a majority of the 20 largest US public school districts be actively using an AI-powered tutoring system for a core subject?", "post_id": 41921, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question by the non-profit*[ *<u>Foresight Institute</u>*](https://foresight.org/) *explores the Tool AI 2035 Scenario (A future shaped by advanced, but purposefully controllable, AI that is often narrow in scope):*\n\n> *A century’s worth of progress occurs in a decade by scaling and steering Tool AI... In 2025, the prospect of automation displacing work was often framed as a threat. By 2035, in much of the world, it is seen as a trade worth making. The combination of reduced hours, safer work, better health, and more time for human pursuits has made life better for most, though not all.*\n\n***\n\nThe \"Tool AI\" scenario envisions AI systems augmenting human teachers by providing personalized, scalable instruction across public education systems. AI tools like Khan Academy’s Khanmigo and other generative tutoring platforms have entered classrooms, but large-scale, district-wide adoption remains a major threshold for institutional change.\n\nHowever, adoption is not guaranteed. Past efforts like [**<u>Ed</u>**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ed_\\(chatbot\\)), a chatbot introduced in Los Angeles schools, failed due to performance issues and privacy concerns.\n\nRecent developments suggest renewed momentum. In July 2025, the [<u>New York Times reported that **Alpha School**</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/us/politics/ai-alpha-school-austin-texas.html), a Texas-based charter network, has integrated AI tutoring across core subjects.\n\nThis question tracks whether AI-powered tutoring tools move from small pilots to institutional adoption. In the Tool AI scenario, education systems increasingly use AI tutors to personalize learning, support teachers, and improve student outcomes—especially in under-resourced areas. Widespread adoption by major school districts would signal the scenario’s vision of AI-enhanced education taking root.\n\nFor more, visit:[ <u>https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com</u>](https://ai-pathways.existentialhope.com)" }, { "id": 41908, "title": "Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-who-director-general-declare-a-pheic-for-h5n1-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:27:38.453809Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-02T18:00:00.102123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T08:27:49.681051Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-04T20:30:34.928262Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-04T20:30:34.928262Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41646, "title": "Will the WHO Director-General declare a PHEIC for H5N1 before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:27:38.454204Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-02T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks whether the WHO elevates the H5N1 avian influenza situation to its highest level of global alert after January 8, 2026, and on or before May 1, 2026. A PHEIC declaration triggers international health responses and legal obligations for member states.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1300477e3442437a\",\"sheet_id\":49}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if, after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026, the Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) under the International Health Regulations (2005) in response to H5N1 avian influenza. The declaration must be documented in an official WHO statement, news release, meeting report from the IHR Emergency Committee, or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If no such declaration is made within this timeframe, the question resolves to No.", "fine_print": "If a PHEIC is declared for a broader category (e.g., 'All Influenza A viruses' or H5) that includes H5N1, it will also count as a Yes. 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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41642, "title": "Will the Tisza Party win more parliamentary seats than Fidesz–KDNP in Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:42.605847Z", "open_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-01T16:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-01T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T16:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T16:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Reuters: [Hungary's opposition lead narrows slightly ahead of April vote, poll shows](https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-opposition-lead-narrows-slightly-ahead-april-vote-poll-shows-2026-01-22/)\n\nThis forecasts a key election outcome that would materially affect Hungary’s EU alignment, rule-of-law politics, and EU cohesion on Russia/Ukraine policy.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"ee66a15755cd4e1f\",\"sheet_id\":137}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the official final seat totals show the Tisza Party with a strictly greater number of seats than Fidesz–KDNP, and No otherwise in Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary election. The primary source is Hungary’s official election results portal for the 2026 parliamentary election: [https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026](https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026).", "fine_print": "Seat totals are taken from the official “final” (or equivalent) published totals on the results portal. . If party/coalition labeling differs, use the portal’s own aggregation for “Fidesz–KDNP” and for “Tisza” as displayed, without reinterpreting alliances. If the portal is unavailable at resolution time, resolve according to the credible sources policy of Metaculus using official Hungarian election authority publications as available; a backup candidate source is the election authority’s main site: [https://www.valasztas.hu](https://www.valasztas.hu).", "short_title": "Will the Tisza Party win more parliamentary seats than Fidesz–KDNP in Hungary’s 2026 parliamentary e", "post_id": 41904, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769963207.501199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.563 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769963207.501199, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.563 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.4512603170041357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Hungary's opposition lead narrows slightly ahead of April vote, poll shows](https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-opposition-lead-narrows-slightly-ahead-april-vote-poll-shows-2026-01-22/)\n\nThis forecasts a key election outcome that would materially affect Hungary’s EU alignment, rule-of-law politics, and EU cohesion on Russia/Ukraine policy.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"ee66a15755cd4e1f\",\"sheet_id\":137}}`" }, { "id": 41903, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-a-ceasefire-agreement-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:28.971526Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T13:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T15:00:00.131774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:37.470693Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-01T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-04T20:30:34.928262Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! 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It distinguishes between marketing announcements and the actual ability for the general public to build applications using the model.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"bb43c81151ff3eac\",\"sheet_id\":53}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if, after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026, OpenAI makes a model explicitly named 'GPT-6' (or a versioned variant such as 'gpt-6-0314') available for general public use in at least one geographic region via its official API or through its ChatGPT website/app interface. “General public use” means accessible via self‑serve access (i.e. creating an OpenAI account through standard signup and/or obtaining access by subscribing to a publicly available plan and/or enabling billing), without requiring a specific individual invitation, manual whitelist/allowlist approval, or participation in a closed/private alpha/beta (or application-only limited preview). Resolution sources include official OpenAI API documentation (https://platform.openai.com/docs/models) being announced as generally available via the OpenAI Newsroom (https://openai.com/news/) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a model is released with a different name (e.g., 'GPT-Next' or 'o3') but is widely reported by credible sources to be the successor to GPT-5, it will not count unless OpenAI officially designates it as 'GPT-6'.", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a model named 'GPT-6' for general public availability before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41900, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769865300.937628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769865300.937628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.13740542182581164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 7.0, 3.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0, 9.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question tracks the technical release and public availability of OpenAI's 'GPT-6' model for the developer ecosystem. 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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41636, "title": "Will SpaceX conduct 2 or more orbital Starship launch attempts before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:18.822800Z", "open_time": "2026-01-30T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks the frequency of Starship orbital launch attempts in the first quadrimester of 2026. High launch frequency is a key indicator of SpaceX's progress toward a rapid reuse operational model and its ability to meet Artemis and Starlink deployment schedules.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"41a6b0eec76ac651\",\"sheet_id\":78}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if SpaceX conducts at least two (2) orbital launch attempts of the Starship vehicle (Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage) after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026. An 'orbital launch attempt' is defined as the ignition of the first-stage (Super Heavy) engines for the purpose of flight, regardless of whether the vehicle successfully reaches orbit or completes its mission. Suborbital tests or static fire tests do not count. Resolution will be based on official SpaceX mission logs (https://www.spacex.com/launches/) FAA Commercial Space Transportation launch data (https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/) or other credible sources (e.g., SpaceNews, NASASpaceFlight).", "fine_print": "If a launch attempt is scrubbed after engine ignition but before the vehicle leaves the launch pad, it will count as an attempt only if the ignition was intended for flight. 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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41635, "title": "Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:04.559042Z", "open_time": "2026-01-30T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Ukraine's Ministry of Energy (reported)[https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/03/8014459/] that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost power from one of its high-voltage lines on the night of January 2-3, 2026, due to renewed hostilities, forcing the plant onto backup diesel generators. This follows a December 6, 2025, incident where the IAEA reported the ZNPP temporarily lost all connection to external power. The plant's reactors, in cold shutdown, still require a constant power supply for essential safety functions. With a history of roughly 12 blackouts since February 2022 and frequent reliance on single high-voltage lines, the situation remains extremely fragile, necessitating reliance on emergency diesel generators as a last line of defense.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"dd97f29e612a33a3\",\"sheet_id\":95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as \"Yes\" if, after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026, there are credible reports, for example from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or international news media, that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has simultaneously lost connection to all its external power lines (currently the 750 kV and 330 kV lines), resulting in a \"full blackout\". The loss of only one of its remaining power lines does not count. The duration of the power loss does not affect the resolution.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before", "post_id": 41897, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769758095.606252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769758095.606252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5706896714156822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine's Ministry of Energy (reported)[https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/03/8014459/] that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost power from one of its high-voltage lines on the night of January 2-3, 2026, due to renewed hostilities, forcing the plant onto backup diesel generators. This follows a December 6, 2025, incident where the IAEA reported the ZNPP temporarily lost all connection to external power. The plant's reactors, in cold shutdown, still require a constant power supply for essential safety functions. With a history of roughly 12 blackouts since February 2022 and frequent reliance on single high-voltage lines, the situation remains extremely fragile, necessitating reliance on emergency diesel generators as a last line of defense.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"dd97f29e612a33a3\",\"sheet_id\":95}}`" }, { "id": 41892, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?", "short_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "url_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "slug": "ldp-wins-majority-in-2026-japan-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T04:16:36.570864Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T00:35:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T02:06:00.093687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T04:16:46.157897Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-01T00:35:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-04T20:30:34.928262Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-04T20:30:34.928262Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41630, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T04:16:36.571347Z", "open_time": "2026-02-01T00:35:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[General elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election) are planned for February 8, 2026, to elect the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese parliament. The House of Representatives has 465 seats, so 233 are needed for a majority.\n\nThe [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) has been the senior partner or sole party in government [almost continuously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_System) since its founding in 1955. The party is currently led by [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi).\n\nThe LDP suffered its second worst electoral result ever in the [2024 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election), falling short of a majority even together with its traditional coalition partner [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito). Since Takaichi took the reins, however, approval of the LDP and Takaichi herself [has surged](https://www.ft.com/content/0d19bc73-b82c-4764-9785-661e8dbd49e0). To capitalize on this, a snap election [has been called](https://www.ft.com/content/5d6de78f-10a0-4883-8437-c05b9562ab37) for February 8, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41693,\"question_id\":41430}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party wins at least 233 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Japanese general election scheduled for February 8, 2026.", "fine_print": "***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41693) which opened on 2026-01-28 02:05:47. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "post_id": 41892, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769911377.006245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769911377.006245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2625, 0.7375 ], "means": [ 0.7065306055850559 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 8.0, 3.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[General elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election) are planned for February 8, 2026, to elect the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese parliament. The House of Representatives has 465 seats, so 233 are needed for a majority.\n\nThe [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) has been the senior partner or sole party in government [almost continuously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_System) since its founding in 1955. The party is currently led by [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi).\n\nThe LDP suffered its second worst electoral result ever in the [2024 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election), falling short of a majority even together with its traditional coalition partner [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito). Since Takaichi took the reins, however, approval of the LDP and Takaichi herself [has surged](https://www.ft.com/content/0d19bc73-b82c-4764-9785-661e8dbd49e0). To capitalize on this, a snap election [has been called](https://www.ft.com/content/5d6de78f-10a0-4883-8437-c05b9562ab37) for February 8, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41693,\"question_id\":41430}}`" }, { "id": 41890, "title": "Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encryption claims?", "short_title": "WhatsApp E2E encryption proven false before 2027?", "url_title": "WhatsApp E2E encryption proven false before 2027?", "slug": "whatsapp-e2e-encryption-proven-false-before-2027", "author_id": 290674, "author_username": "lanfranco", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-27T22:34:38.878706Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T03:47:22Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T14:18:16.609039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:49:33.250113Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T03:47:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41628, "title": "Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encryption claims?", "created_at": "2026-01-27T22:34:38.879143Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T03:47:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-06T03:47:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-06T03:47:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On January 23, 2026, an international group of plaintiffs [filed a class-action lawsuit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-25/lawsuit-claims-meta-can-see-whatsapp-chats-in-breach-of-privacy) against Meta Platforms, Inc. in US District Court in San Francisco, alleging that WhatsApp’s end-to-end encryption claims are false. The plaintiffs—from Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa—allege that Meta and WhatsApp “store, analyze, and can access virtually all of WhatsApp users’ purportedly ‘private’ communications.”\n\nWhatsApp has promoted end-to-end encryption as a core privacy feature since implementing the [Signal protocol](https://signal.org/docs/) in 2016. The app displays in-chat notices stating that “only people in this chat can read, listen to, or share” messages. End-to-end encryption means that encryption keys are stored only on users’ devices, theoretically preventing even the service provider from accessing message content.\n\n[The lawsuit](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.463150/gov.uscourts.cand.463150.1.0.pdf) references unnamed “whistleblowers” who allegedly provided information about Meta’s ability to access messages. One claim suggests employees could submit internal requests to retrieve messages in real time using user identifiers.\n\nMeta spokesperson Andy Stone called the allegations “categorically false and absurd” and described the lawsuit as “a frivolous work of fiction,” stating that WhatsApp has been end-to-end encrypted using the Signal protocol for a decade. WhatsApp head Will Cathcart [stated](https://x.com/wcathcart/status/2016003768694014092) the company “can’t read messages because the encryption keys are stored on your phone.”\n\nIn September 2025, former WhatsApp security head Attaullah Baig [separately sued](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/ex-meta-employee-whistleblower-suit-alleged-security-flaws-whatsapp-.html) Meta over alleged “systemic cybersecurity failures.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, **any of the following occurs**:\n\n1. **Court finding**: A court of competent jurisdiction issues a ruling or finding (even preliminary) that Meta has the technical capability to access WhatsApp message content despite end-to-end encryption claims.\n2. **Regulatory finding**: A government regulatory body (e.g., FTC, EU Data Protection Authority, or equivalent) officially concludes that WhatsApp’s encryption claims are materially false or misleading regarding Meta’s ability to access message content.\n3. **Official admission**: Meta, WhatsApp, or an authorized company representative officially acknowledges that the company can access the content of end-to-end encrypted WhatsApp messages (excluding messages that users have voluntarily reported, backed up to unencrypted cloud storage, or otherwise shared outside the encrypted channel).\n4. **Independent technical verification**: A peer-reviewed security research paper, or findings from at least two independent and reputable security research organizations (e.g., Citizen Lab, EFF, academic institutions), demonstrates a technical mechanism by which Meta can access WhatsApp message content despite claimed end-to-end encryption.\n5. **Authenticated internal documentation**: Internal Meta documents are made public through legal discovery, government investigation, or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) journalistic investigation (e.g., from outlets like The New York Times, The Guardian, Bloomberg, or similar) that demonstrate Meta has the capability to access end-to-end encrypted message content.\n\n**Important clarifications:**\n\n* Mere allegations in lawsuits, regardless of plaintiff credibility, do not constitute resolution.\n* The ability to access metadata (sender, recipient, timestamps, etc.) does not count—only message content access qualifies.\n* Access to messages through cloud backups, reported messages, or messages forwarded to unencrypted platforms does not count, since these are known exceptions to E2E encryption.\n* A legal settlement without admission of wrongdoing will not resolve this question as Yes.", "fine_print": "* If Meta implements a new feature or policy change after January 2026 that deliberately creates a backdoor or reduces encryption, this will not resolve the question as Yes: the question specifically concerns whether Meta's claims about encryption as of January 2026 have been false.\n* Social media posts, unverified leaks, or claims from parties with obvious conflicts of interest (such as competing platforms) will not on their own cause this question to resolve as Yes.\n* If multiple partial findings emerge that individually don’t meet the threshold but collectively establish the claim, Metaculus may resolve the question based on the preponderance of evidence.", "short_title": "WhatsApp E2E encryption proven false before 2027?", "post_id": 41890, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 23, 2026, an international group of plaintiffs [filed a class-action lawsuit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-25/lawsuit-claims-meta-can-see-whatsapp-chats-in-breach-of-privacy) against Meta Platforms, Inc. in US District Court in San Francisco, alleging that WhatsApp’s end-to-end encryption claims are false. The plaintiffs—from Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africa—allege that Meta and WhatsApp “store, analyze, and can access virtually all of WhatsApp users’ purportedly ‘private’ communications.”\n\nWhatsApp has promoted end-to-end encryption as a core privacy feature since implementing the [Signal protocol](https://signal.org/docs/) in 2016. The app displays in-chat notices stating that “only people in this chat can read, listen to, or share” messages. End-to-end encryption means that encryption keys are stored only on users’ devices, theoretically preventing even the service provider from accessing message content.\n\n[The lawsuit](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.463150/gov.uscourts.cand.463150.1.0.pdf) references unnamed “whistleblowers” who allegedly provided information about Meta’s ability to access messages. One claim suggests employees could submit internal requests to retrieve messages in real time using user identifiers.\n\nMeta spokesperson Andy Stone called the allegations “categorically false and absurd” and described the lawsuit as “a frivolous work of fiction,” stating that WhatsApp has been end-to-end encrypted using the Signal protocol for a decade. WhatsApp head Will Cathcart [stated](https://x.com/wcathcart/status/2016003768694014092) the company “can’t read messages because the encryption keys are stored on your phone.”\n\nIn September 2025, former WhatsApp security head Attaullah Baig [separately sued](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/ex-meta-employee-whistleblower-suit-alleged-security-flaws-whatsapp-.html) Meta over alleged “systemic cybersecurity failures.”" } ] }
