Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6622, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41414, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "COF's close price rises?", "url_title": "COF's close price rises?", "slug": "cofs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:15.845093Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T15:24:33Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T16:55:00.153236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:16.058760Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T11:15:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T15:24:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41129, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:15.845503Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T15:24:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T11:15:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:05) is 247.93. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COF. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "COF's close price rises?", "post_id": 41414, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767718080.410881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767718080.410881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5852855226036536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 8.0, 3.0, 7.0, 16.0, 5.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:05) is 247.93. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`" }, { "id": 41413, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"War between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"War between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-war-between-india-and-pakistan-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:12.426915Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T14:04:17Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T15:35:00.161258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:12.616983Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:04:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T14:04:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41128, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:12.427312Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T14:04:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:04:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37700\n- Original question title: Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2027, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between India and Pakistan, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders or disputed regions of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n> \n> Direct conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of India and Pakistan using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies such as militants in Jammu and Kashmir do not count for the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2027, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n> * Deaths will be totaled over the entire period in question.\n> * If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total number of deaths suffered by India without distinguishing whether those deaths were caused by Pakistan or another adversary), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n> * Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n> * Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n> * Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n> * Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n> \n> India and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n> \n> On May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n> \n> [](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37700,\"question_id\":37047,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37700) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 22:04:49 is higher than 10.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 10.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 22:04:49, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"War between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41413, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767712632.911672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767712632.911672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2995338614804251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37700\n- Original question title: Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2027, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between India and Pakistan, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders or disputed regions of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n> \n> Direct conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of India and Pakistan using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies such as militants in Jammu and Kashmir do not count for the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2027, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n> * Deaths will be totaled over the entire period in question.\n> * If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total number of deaths suffered by India without distinguishing whether those deaths were caused by Pakistan or another adversary), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n> * Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n> * Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n> * Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n> * Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n> \n> India and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n> \n> On May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n> \n> [](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37700,\"question_id\":37047,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 41411, "title": "Will FAST's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "FAST's close price rises?", "url_title": "FAST's close price rises?", "slug": "fasts-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:04.926156Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T11:32:27Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T13:03:00.175508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:05.126091Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T11:32:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41126, "title": "Will FAST's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:04.926562Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T11:32:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Fastenal Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FAST. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:03) is 40.44. You can find more information about Fastenal Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST\n\nFastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It also offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FAST\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FAST. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FAST's close price rises?", "post_id": 41411, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767703932.149128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5252 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767703932.149128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5252 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5480657643895191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 8.0, 6.0, 18.0, 4.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fastenal Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FAST. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:03) is 40.44. You can find more information about Fastenal Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST\n\nFastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It also offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FAST\"}}`" }, { "id": 41409, "title": "Will BSX's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "BSX's close price rises?", "url_title": "BSX's close price rises?", "slug": "bsxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:57.799792Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T08:15:49Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T09:46:00.178681Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:57.993374Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T12:46:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T08:15:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41124, "title": "Will BSX's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:57.800251Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T08:15:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T12:46:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Boston Scientific Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BSX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:02) is 94.71. You can find more information about Boston Scientific Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BSX\n\nBoston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices for use in various interventional medical specialties worldwide. It operates in two segments, MedSurg and Cardiovascular. The company offers devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal conditions, such as resolution clips, biliary stent systems, stents and electrocautery enhanced delivery systems, direct visualization systems, digital catheters, and single-use duodenoscopes, as well as endoluminal surgery and infection prevention portfolios; devices to treat urological conditions, including ureteral stents, catheters, baskets, guidewires, urinary and bowel dysfunction, sheaths, balloons, single-use digital flexible ureteroscopes, holmium laser systems, penile implants, artificial urinary sphincter, laser system, and hydrogel systems; and devices to treat neurological movement disorders and manage chronic pain, such as spinal cord stimulator systems, proprietary programming software, radiofrequency ablation, indirect decompression systems, and intraosseous nerve ablation and deep brain stimulation systems. It also provides technologies for diagnosing and treating coronary artery disease and aortic valve conditions; WATCHMAN FLX, a left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) device; and implantable devices that monitor the heart and deliver electricity to treat cardiac abnormalities, such as cardioverter and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators, MRI S-ICD systems, cardiac resynchronization therapy pacemakers, quadripolar LV leads, ICD leads, pacing leads, remote patient management systems, insertable cardiac monitor systems, and remote cardiac monitoring systems. In addition, the company offers diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart; peripheral arterial and venous diseases; and products to diagnose, treat, and ease forms of cancer. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BSX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BSX. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is BSX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:02) is 94.71. You can find more information about Boston Scientific Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BSX\n\nBoston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices for use in various interventional medical specialties worldwide. It operates in two segments, MedSurg and Cardiovascular. The company offers devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal conditions, such as resolution clips, biliary stent systems, stents and electrocautery enhanced delivery systems, direct visualization systems, digital catheters, and single-use duodenoscopes, as well as endoluminal surgery and infection prevention portfolios; devices to treat urological conditions, including ureteral stents, catheters, baskets, guidewires, urinary and bowel dysfunction, sheaths, balloons, single-use digital flexible ureteroscopes, holmium laser systems, penile implants, artificial urinary sphincter, laser system, and hydrogel systems; and devices to treat neurological movement disorders and manage chronic pain, such as spinal cord stimulator systems, proprietary programming software, radiofrequency ablation, indirect decompression systems, and intraosseous nerve ablation and deep brain stimulation systems. It also provides technologies for diagnosing and treating coronary artery disease and aortic valve conditions; WATCHMAN FLX, a left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) device; and implantable devices that monitor the heart and deliver electricity to treat cardiac abnormalities, such as cardioverter and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators, MRI S-ICD systems, cardiac resynchronization therapy pacemakers, quadripolar LV leads, ICD leads, pacing leads, remote patient management systems, insertable cardiac monitor systems, and remote cardiac monitoring systems. In addition, the company offers diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart; peripheral arterial and venous diseases; and products to diagnose, treat, and ease forms of cancer. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BSX\"}}`" }, { "id": 41404, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-anthropic-file-an-s-1-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:39.795519Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T04:47:39Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T06:18:00.174015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:39.997917Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T04:47:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41119, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:39.795933Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T04:47:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41206\n- Original question title: Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n> \n> > Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n> \n> > For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n> \n> According to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n> \n> > Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41206,\"question_id\":40916,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41206) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 19:01:53 is higher than 65.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 65.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 19:01:53, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41404, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767679231.480282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767679231.480282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5475000000000001, 0.4525 ], "means": [ 0.4813542266248036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41206\n- Original question title: Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n> \n> > Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n> \n> > For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n> \n> According to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n> \n> > Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41206,\"question_id\":40916,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`" }, { "id": 41402, "title": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "COO's close price rises?", "url_title": "COO's close price rises?", "slug": "coos-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:32.830751Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T05:30:00.165951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:33.041910Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41117, "title": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:32.831166Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Cooper Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:11) is 81.11. You can find more information about The Cooper Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO\n\nThe Cooper Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets contact lens wearers. The company operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The CooperVision segment offers spherical, toric, and multifocal contact lenses that address vision challenges, such as astigmatism, presbyopia, and myopia. Its CooperSurgical segment focuses on family and women's health care, which provides fertility products and services, medical devices, and contraception, as well as cryostorage, such as cord blood and cord tissue storage. This segment offers Paragard, a hormone-free intrauterine device; and fertility consumables and equipment, donor gamete services, and genomic services, including genetic testing. The company sells its products to distributors, group purchasing organizations, eye care and health care professionals, including independent practices, corporate retailers, hospitals and clinics, and authorized resellers. The Cooper Companies, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COO\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COO. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "COO's close price rises?", "post_id": 41402, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767675259.555492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767675259.555492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5427857828893777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 12.0, 5.0, 21.0, 5.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Cooper Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:11) is 81.11. You can find more information about The Cooper Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO\n\nThe Cooper Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets contact lens wearers. The company operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The CooperVision segment offers spherical, toric, and multifocal contact lenses that address vision challenges, such as astigmatism, presbyopia, and myopia. Its CooperSurgical segment focuses on family and women's health care, which provides fertility products and services, medical devices, and contraception, as well as cryostorage, such as cord blood and cord tissue storage. This segment offers Paragard, a hormone-free intrauterine device; and fertility consumables and equipment, donor gamete services, and genomic services, including genetic testing. The company sells its products to distributors, group purchasing organizations, eye care and health care professionals, including independent practices, corporate retailers, hospitals and clinics, and authorized resellers. The Cooper Companies, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COO\"}}`" }, { "id": 41400, "title": "Will XYL's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "url_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "slug": "xyls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:25.531859Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:37:46Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T05:08:00.331763Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:25.767206Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T01:28:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:37:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41115, "title": "Will XYL's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:25.532316Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:37:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T01:28:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:00) is 137.11. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of XYL. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "post_id": 41400, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767675475.505447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.526 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767675475.505447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.526 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.474, 0.526 ], "means": [ 0.5281778273151875 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 12.0, 6.0, 3.0, 12.0, 4.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:00) is 137.11. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41399, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-stock-market-go-down-by-5-in-any-week-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:21.977527Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T04:40:00.384747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:22.285189Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T07:52:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41114, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:21.977936Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T07:52:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301\n- Original question title: Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n> \n> If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n> \n> Stock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n> \n> > The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n> \n> > Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n> \n> Weekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n> \n> | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n> | ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n> | 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n> | 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n> | 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n> | 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n> | 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n> | 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n> | 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n> | 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n> | 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n> | 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n> | 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n> | 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n> | 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n> | 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n> | 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n> | 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n> | 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n> | 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n> | 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n> | 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n> | 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n> | 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n> | 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n> | 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n> | 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n> | 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n> | 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n> | 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n> | 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n> | 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n> | 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n> | 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n> | 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n> | 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n> | 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n> | 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n> | 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n> | 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n> | 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n> | 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n> | 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40301,\"question_id\":39848,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 07:52:27 is higher than 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 07:52:27, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41399, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767674004.73585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767674004.73585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2402192104252242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301\n- Original question title: Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n> \n> If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n> \n> Stock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n> \n> > The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n> \n> > Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n> \n> Weekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n> \n> | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n> | ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n> | 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n> | 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n> | 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n> | 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n> | 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n> | 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n> | 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n> | 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n> | 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n> | 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n> | 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n> | 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n> | 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n> | 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n> | 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n> | 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n> | 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n> | 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n> | 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n> | 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n> | 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n> | 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n> | 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n> | 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n> | 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n> | 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n> | 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n> | 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n> | 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n> | 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n> | 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n> | 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n> | 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n> | 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n> | 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n> | 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n> | 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n> | 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n> | 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n> | 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n> | 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40301,\"question_id\":39848,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 41397, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-who-prequalify-moxidectin-by-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.703796Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T03:30:00.221466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.911124Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T09:45:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41112, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.704241Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T09:45:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395\n- Original question title: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n> \n> Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n> \n> According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n> \n> >Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n> \n> As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n> \n> However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n> \n> In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n> \n> However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n> \n> According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n> \n> >Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n> \n> >In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> - Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n> - [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n> - Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28395,\"question_id\":28395,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 09:45:54 is higher than 86.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 86.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 09:45:54, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41397, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767668987.517096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767668987.517096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3591191914577744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395\n- Original question title: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n> \n> Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n> \n> According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n> \n> >Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n> \n> As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n> \n> However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n> \n> In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n> \n> However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n> \n> According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n> \n> >Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n> \n> >In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> - Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n> - [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n> - Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28395,\"question_id\":28395,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`" }, { "id": 41396, "title": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "APH's close price rises?", "url_title": "APH's close price rises?", "slug": "aphs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.104749Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T02:52:00.194282Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.446727Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41111, "title": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.105155Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Amphenol Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is APH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:08) is 139.71. You can find more information about Amphenol Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APH\n\nAmphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company offers connectors and connector systems, including harsh environment data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency interconnect products; busbars and power distribution systems; and power interconnect products. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, other mechanical, and production related products. In addition, the company offers consumer device, network infrastructure, and other antennas; coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and sensors and sensor-based products. Amphenol Corporation sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"APH\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of APH. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "APH's close price rises?", "post_id": 41396, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767667888.541792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767667888.541792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.580961474847644 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 4.0, 5.0, 12.0, 5.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amphenol Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is APH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:08) is 139.71. You can find more information about Amphenol Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APH\n\nAmphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company offers connectors and connector systems, including harsh environment data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency interconnect products; busbars and power distribution systems; and power interconnect products. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, other mechanical, and production related products. In addition, the company offers consumer device, network infrastructure, and other antennas; coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and sensors and sensor-based products. Amphenol Corporation sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"APH\"}}`" }, { "id": 41395, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-scotus-grant-cert-on-a-case-that-would-overturn-obergell", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.563595Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T02:11:00.298278Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.846996Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T03:50:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41110, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.564022Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T03:50:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142\n- Original question title: Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n> \n> A constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n> \n> On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n> \n> In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n> \n> Obergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39142,\"question_id\":38485,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-14 03:50:35 is higher than 6.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 6.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-14 03:50:35, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "post_id": 41395, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767665379.742775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19283333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767665379.742775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19283333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8071666666666667, 0.19283333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.23052136752136754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142\n- Original question title: Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n> \n> A constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n> \n> On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n> \n> In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n> \n> Obergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39142,\"question_id\":38485,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 41393, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-any-ai-achieve-94-on-gpqa-diamond-benchmark-leaderboard-by-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:00.447501Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T23:50:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T01:21:00.182468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:00.674573Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T18:58:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T23:50:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41108, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:00.447910Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T23:50:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T18:58:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776\n- Original question title: Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 85.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n> \n> Please note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n> \n> Additionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n> \n> As of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n> \n> | Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n> | ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n> | **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n> | **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n> \n> Acording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n> \n> > The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n> \n> > We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n> \n> > Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n> \n> An example of a question is:\n> \n> > *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n> \n> > *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n> \n> > *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> > *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> > *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> > *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40776,\"question_id\":40435,\"last_cp\":0.85}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 18:58:05 is higher than 85.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 85.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 18:58:05, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41393, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767662280.464258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.373 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767662280.464258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.373 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.627, 0.373 ], "means": [ 0.38526955797854034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776\n- Original question title: Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 85.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n> \n> Please note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n> \n> Additionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n> \n> As of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n> \n> | Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n> | ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n> | **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n> | **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n> \n> Acording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n> \n> > The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n> \n> > We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n> \n> > Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n> \n> An example of a question is:\n> \n> > *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n> \n> > *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n> \n> > *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> > *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> > *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> > *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40776,\"question_id\":40435,\"last_cp\":0.85}}`" }, { "id": 41391, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-government-enter-a-shutdown-before-february-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:53.463405Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T20:22:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T21:53:00.348633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:53.714114Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:47:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:22:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41106, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:53.463835Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:22:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:47:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919\n- Original question title: Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 33.30%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n> \n> As [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n> \n> > Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n> \n> > The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n> \n> > The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n> \n> [The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n> \n> The deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n> \n> [The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605,\"last_cp\":0.333}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 15:47:42 is higher than 33.30%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 33.30%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 15:47:42, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41391, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767649795.983846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767649795.983846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.555, 0.445 ], "means": [ 0.46106332200126926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919\n- Original question title: Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 33.30%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n> \n> As [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n> \n> > Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n> \n> > The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n> \n> > The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n> \n> [The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n> \n> The deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n> \n> [The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605,\"last_cp\":0.333}}`" }, { "id": 41390, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-next-ceo-of-xtwitter-last-until-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:49.877817Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T20:12:46Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T21:43:00.241526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:50.238163Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T08:08:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:12:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41105, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:49.878214Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:12:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T08:08:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38886\n- Original question title: Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next CEO of X, after Linda Yaccarino's departure, continuously holds the position of CEO until January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If no person becomes CEO of X before 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * If the new CEO steps down before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**, even if they later return to this position.\n> * If X rebrands or changes ownership that will have no impact on this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n> \n> According to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n> \n> > She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n> \n> > Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n> \n> On July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38886,\"question_id\":38201,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38886) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-17 08:08:12 is higher than 55.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 55.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-17 08:08:12, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41390, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767649207.840395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767649207.840395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3889283465358649 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38886\n- Original question title: Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next CEO of X, after Linda Yaccarino's departure, continuously holds the position of CEO until January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If no person becomes CEO of X before 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * If the new CEO steps down before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**, even if they later return to this position.\n> * If X rebrands or changes ownership that will have no impact on this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n> \n> According to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n> \n> > She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n> \n> > Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n> \n> On July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38886,\"question_id\":38201,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 41387, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-dem-house-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.374474Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T21:04:00.241832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.557458Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T01:29:18.189503Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41102, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.374867Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n> \n> If the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.\n\nOriginal background: \n> At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n> \n> On November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35760,\"question_id\":35205,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-14 13:30:06 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-14 13:30:06, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41387, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767645930.304284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767645930.304284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36252729857819915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n> \n> If the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.\n\nOriginal background: \n> At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n> \n> On November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35760,\"question_id\":35205,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41370, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "url_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "slug": "podium-sweep-at-2026-olympics", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-02T18:55:07.719000Z", "published_at": "2026-01-02T22:31:55Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T02:08:17.613182Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-02T23:09:35.033829Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T02:31:06.027484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T02:31:06.027484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } }, "question": { "id": 41081, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "created_at": "2026-01-02T18:55:07.719479Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one podium sweep occurs at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.\n\nA podium sweep is defined as:\n\n* All three medal positions (gold, silver, bronze) in a single Olympic event being won by athletes representing the same country or designation.", "fine_print": "Podium sweeps achieved by athletes competing under a neutral or independent designation will count as a sweep for that designation if all three medalists share the same designation.\n\nMedal reallocations or disqualifications announced after the conclusion of the Games will not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "post_id": 41370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps." }, { "id": 41340, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "short_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "url_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "slug": "beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2028", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-28T20:27:37.183418Z", "published_at": "2026-01-01T07:08:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T00:28:30.825061Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-01T07:09:11.989973Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-02T07:08:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32926, "name": "2026-2027 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2027_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41040, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-12-28T20:27:37.183834Z", "open_time": "2026-01-02T07:08:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T07:08:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T07:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. \n\n> [As of December 2024](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001655210/000165521025000034/bynd-20241231.htm), Beyond Meat branded products were available at approximately 129,000 retail and foodservice outlets in more than 65 countries worldwide, across mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser, club store and natural retailer channels, and various food-away-from-home channels, including restaurants, foodservice outlets and schools.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of \\$14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has significantly declined to less than \\$1 per share, leaving the company with a market capitalization of \\$400 million [in December 2025](https://companiesmarketcap.com/beyond-meat/marketcap/).\n\nAs reported by [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/retail/bankruptcy-watch-beyond-meat-shares-new-financial-woes) (a US financial news website):\n\n> Beyond Meat has been struggling as it faces increased competition and dwindling demand for its plant-based meat products.\n\n> “The company’s overall Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 1.03, labeled as WEAK, highlighting the significant challenges ahead. The company, known for its innovative approach to creating meat substitutes from plant-based ingredients, has recently faced a series of setbacks that have prompted analysts to adopt a cautious stance on its stock,” according to [InvestingPro analysis](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/beyond-meats-swot-analysis-plantbased-pioneer-faces-uphill-battle-93CH-4189732).\n\nHowever,\n\n> Beyond Meat has fully denied that it’s at risk of running out of cash. “Your story suggesting that Beyond Meat filed for bankruptcy is unequivocally false. We have not filed nor are we planning to file for bankruptcy,” the company shared in an email to TheStreet.\n\nNevertheless the long-term future of Beyond Meat, Inc. remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Beyond Meat, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of [the United States Bankruptcy Code](https://www.uscourts.gov/court-programs/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics), before January 1, 2028. ", "fine_print": "Only petitions filed by Beyond Meat, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Beyond Meat, Inc.'s business, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or split-off companies will not qualify.\n\nThis question resolves based upon the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.", "short_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "post_id": 41340, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767918500.522916, "end_time": 1775121198.929, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767918500.522916, "end_time": 1775121198.929, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6460445479921237 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10777483786483952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8419418262271015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.39738560315786137, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.785063678451718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8412494874797594 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. \n\n> [As of December 2024](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001655210/000165521025000034/bynd-20241231.htm), Beyond Meat branded products were available at approximately 129,000 retail and foodservice outlets in more than 65 countries worldwide, across mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser, club store and natural retailer channels, and various food-away-from-home channels, including restaurants, foodservice outlets and schools.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of \\$14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has significantly declined to less than \\$1 per share, leaving the company with a market capitalization of \\$400 million [in December 2025](https://companiesmarketcap.com/beyond-meat/marketcap/).\n\nAs reported by [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/retail/bankruptcy-watch-beyond-meat-shares-new-financial-woes) (a US financial news website):\n\n> Beyond Meat has been struggling as it faces increased competition and dwindling demand for its plant-based meat products.\n\n> “The company’s overall Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 1.03, labeled as WEAK, highlighting the significant challenges ahead. The company, known for its innovative approach to creating meat substitutes from plant-based ingredients, has recently faced a series of setbacks that have prompted analysts to adopt a cautious stance on its stock,” according to [InvestingPro analysis](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/beyond-meats-swot-analysis-plantbased-pioneer-faces-uphill-battle-93CH-4189732).\n\nHowever,\n\n> Beyond Meat has fully denied that it’s at risk of running out of cash. “Your story suggesting that Beyond Meat filed for bankruptcy is unequivocally false. We have not filed nor are we planning to file for bankruptcy,” the company shared in an email to TheStreet.\n\nNevertheless the long-term future of Beyond Meat, Inc. remains uncertain." }, { "id": 41295, "title": "Will EMR's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-30?", "short_title": "EMR's close price rises?", "url_title": "EMR's close price rises?", "slug": "emrs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:46.356735Z", "published_at": "2025-12-30T11:30:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:56:53.056127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:46.559553Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T11:30:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41003, "title": "Will EMR's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-30?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:46.357175Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T11:30:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:56:50.179992Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Emerson Electric Co. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EMR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:55) is 132.98. You can find more information about Emerson Electric Co. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EMR\n\nEmerson Electric Co., a technology and software company, provides various solutions in the Americas, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It operates through Final Control, Measurement & Analytical, Discrete Automation, Safety & Productivity, Control Systems & Software, and Test & Measurement segments. The Final Control segment provides control valves, isolation valves, shutoff valves, pressure relief valves, pressure safety valves, actuators, and regulators for process and hybrid industries under Anderson Greenwood, Bettis, Crosby, Fisher, Keystone, KTM, and Vanessa brands. The Measurement & Analytical segment supplies intelligent instrumentation measuring the physical properties of liquids or gases, such as pressure, temperature, level, flow, acoustics, corrosion, pH, conductivity, water quality, toxic gases, and flame under the Flexim, Micro Motion, and Rosemount brands. The Discrete Automation segment includes solenoid valves, pneumatic valves, valve position indicators, pneumatic cylinders and actuators, air preparation equipment, pressure and temperature switches, electric linear motion solutions, programmable automation control systems and software, electrical distribution equipment, and materials joining solutions used primarily in discrete industries under the Afag, Appleton, ASCO, Aventics, Branson, Movicon, PACSystems, SolaHD, TESCOM, and TopWorx brands. The Safety & Productivity segment delivers tools for professionals and homeowners that support infrastructure, promote safety, and enhance productivity under the Greenlee, Klauke, ProTeam, and RIDGID brands. The Control Systems & Software segment provides control systems and software that control plant processes by collecting and analyzing information from measurement devices in the plant under the DeltaV and Ovation brands. The Test & Measurement offers software-connected automated test and measurement systems. The company was incorporated in 1890 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EMR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EMR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-30, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "EMR's close price rises?", "post_id": 41295, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767097994.130559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767097994.130559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5279368467822351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 14.0, 5.0, 8.0, 23.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.536526583220887, "peer_score": 2.9073598530102815, "coverage": 0.9726784910979094, "relative_legacy_score": -0.008366505690272646, "weighted_coverage": 0.9726784910979094, "spot_peer_score": 2.8245246403545536, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 10.536526583220887, "peer_archived_score": 2.9073598530102815, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.008366505690272646, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8245246403545536, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Emerson Electric Co. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EMR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:55) is 132.98. You can find more information about Emerson Electric Co. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EMR\n\nEmerson Electric Co., a technology and software company, provides various solutions in the Americas, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It operates through Final Control, Measurement & Analytical, Discrete Automation, Safety & Productivity, Control Systems & Software, and Test & Measurement segments. The Final Control segment provides control valves, isolation valves, shutoff valves, pressure relief valves, pressure safety valves, actuators, and regulators for process and hybrid industries under Anderson Greenwood, Bettis, Crosby, Fisher, Keystone, KTM, and Vanessa brands. The Measurement & Analytical segment supplies intelligent instrumentation measuring the physical properties of liquids or gases, such as pressure, temperature, level, flow, acoustics, corrosion, pH, conductivity, water quality, toxic gases, and flame under the Flexim, Micro Motion, and Rosemount brands. The Discrete Automation segment includes solenoid valves, pneumatic valves, valve position indicators, pneumatic cylinders and actuators, air preparation equipment, pressure and temperature switches, electric linear motion solutions, programmable automation control systems and software, electrical distribution equipment, and materials joining solutions used primarily in discrete industries under the Afag, Appleton, ASCO, Aventics, Branson, Movicon, PACSystems, SolaHD, TESCOM, and TopWorx brands. The Safety & Productivity segment delivers tools for professionals and homeowners that support infrastructure, promote safety, and enhance productivity under the Greenlee, Klauke, ProTeam, and RIDGID brands. The Control Systems & Software segment provides control systems and software that control plant processes by collecting and analyzing information from measurement devices in the plant under the DeltaV and Ovation brands. The Test & Measurement offers software-connected automated test and measurement systems. The company was incorporated in 1890 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EMR\"}}`" }, { "id": 41293, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:38.407271Z", "published_at": "2025-12-30T09:02:12Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:56:58.811634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:39.632643Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T09:02:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41001, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:38.407669Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T09:02:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:56:55.975065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353). If the community prediction on 2026-01-03 14:43:21 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41293, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767089512.474386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767089512.474386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24015582259691107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.565452673908894, "peer_score": 7.6252656177286715, "coverage": 0.9191732753647698, "relative_legacy_score": 0.011225709142644577, "weighted_coverage": 0.9191732753647698, "spot_peer_score": 9.00660776307956, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 61.565452673908894, "peer_archived_score": 7.6252656177286715, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.011225709142644577, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.00660776307956, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 41292, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-federal-judge-impeached-by-republicans-before-jan-3-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:33.964669Z", "published_at": "2025-12-30T05:22:04Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:04.360460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:35.166056Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T05:22:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41000, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:33.965068Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T05:22:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:01.527254Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36348\n- Original question title: Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal judge is impeached by the US House of Representatives with fewer than half of Democratic representatives voting for the impeachment.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The reason for impeachment is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n> \n> Conviction in the US Senate, which at the time of this question [requires](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm) a two-thirds vote to convict, is not necessary for this question to resolve as **Yes**. \n\nOriginal background: \n> [Impeachment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States) of federal judges in the United States is a rare and serious action, typically reserved for cases involving significant misconduct or ethical violations. The process requires a majority vote in the House of Representative to impeach and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the judge from office. [Historically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_impeachments), very few federal judges have been impeached and removed, and none solely for their judicial decisions.\n> \n> In March 2025, President Donald Trump [called for](https://apnews.com/article/trump-judge-boasberg-musk-impeachment-1019459fc9517231204b814fd6f36127) the impeachment of US District Judge James Boasberg after Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Chief Justice John Roberts [responded](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) by stating that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreements over judicial decisions.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36348,\"question_id\":35765,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36348). If the community prediction on 2026-01-02 19:31:22 is higher than 17.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41292, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767075564.960057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767075564.960057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27161157554102333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.213361806102085, "peer_score": 4.277766042502909, "coverage": 0.9780570585197872, "relative_legacy_score": 0.015986660540131977, "weighted_coverage": 0.9780570585197872, "spot_peer_score": 4.5697038267166965, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 51.213361806102085, "peer_archived_score": 4.277766042502909, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.015986660540131977, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.5697038267166965, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36348\n- Original question title: Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal judge is impeached by the US House of Representatives with fewer than half of Democratic representatives voting for the impeachment.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The reason for impeachment is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n> \n> Conviction in the US Senate, which at the time of this question [requires](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm) a two-thirds vote to convict, is not necessary for this question to resolve as **Yes**. \n\nOriginal background: \n> [Impeachment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States) of federal judges in the United States is a rare and serious action, typically reserved for cases involving significant misconduct or ethical violations. The process requires a majority vote in the House of Representative to impeach and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the judge from office. [Historically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_impeachments), very few federal judges have been impeached and removed, and none solely for their judicial decisions.\n> \n> In March 2025, President Donald Trump [called for](https://apnews.com/article/trump-judge-boasberg-musk-impeachment-1019459fc9517231204b814fd6f36127) the impeachment of US District Judge James Boasberg after Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Chief Justice John Roberts [responded](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) by stating that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreements over judicial decisions.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36348,\"question_id\":35765,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`" } ] }
