Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6480, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 40849, "title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-tesla-discontinue-the-cybertruck-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-23T02:26:46.092057Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T03:26:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T06:27:23.774870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-23T03:27:10.224854Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T10:22:47.298345Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T10:22:47.298345Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40508, "title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-23T02:26:46.092499Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T03:26:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T03:26:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon)\n\n> The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire.\n\nElektrek (September 13, 2025): [Tesla discontinues cheapest Cybertruck, no one wanted it](https://electrek.co/2025/09/13/tesla-discontinues-cheapest-cybertruck/)\n\n> Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.\n\n> No one wanted the gutted electric truck.\n\n> There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.\n\n> Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.\n\n> Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.\n\nInside EVs (September 14, 2025): [The Cheapest Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead](https://insideevs.com/news/772205/tesla-cybertruck-rwd-discontinued-2025/) \n\n> Pour one out for the bargain-bin Cybertruck. After just five months of orders, Tesla has removed the ability for owners to buy the cheapest variant of the Cybertruck: the rear-wheel-drive model.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Tesla discontinues retail sales of the Cybertruck. For purposes of this question, this is defined as one of the following occurring:\n\n1. Removing the ability for customers in the United States to place an order to purchase a new Cybertruck from the [Tesla website](https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck), with no intention to restore it according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n2. Tesla (or anyone authorized to speak on the company's behalf) announcing that the Cybertruck will no longer be either produced for or sold new to retail customers in the United States, effective before the date mentioned above.", "fine_print": "Discontinuation of certain models does not count as long as any model of Cybertruck is still available. For example, if Tesla discontinues the All Wheel Drive Cybertruck but the Cyberbeast is still available, it does not count. \n\nDiscontinuation of Cybertruck sales to the retail market, but continuing sales to the enterprise market (such to SpaceX or to government customers), counts.\n\nTemporary pauses, such as supply chain or production issues, do not count.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity, Metaculus may rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to determine the truth of the matter.", "short_title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40849, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764916033.351349, "end_time": 1765017242.753, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764916033.351349, "end_time": 1765017242.753, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.925, 0.075 ], "means": [ 0.13860836186375391 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8358439363280007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.511114780416033, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.340480546600963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon)\n\n> The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire.\n\nElektrek (September 13, 2025): [Tesla discontinues cheapest Cybertruck, no one wanted it](https://electrek.co/2025/09/13/tesla-discontinues-cheapest-cybertruck/)\n\n> Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.\n\n> No one wanted the gutted electric truck.\n\n> There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.\n\n> Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.\n\n> Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.\n\nInside EVs (September 14, 2025): [The Cheapest Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead](https://insideevs.com/news/772205/tesla-cybertruck-rwd-discontinued-2025/) \n\n> Pour one out for the bargain-bin Cybertruck. After just five months of orders, Tesla has removed the ability for owners to buy the cheapest variant of the Cybertruck: the rear-wheel-drive model." }, { "id": 40846, "title": "Will BLK's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "short_title": "BLK's close price rises?", "url_title": "BLK's close price rises?", "slug": "blks-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:47.326113Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T18:54:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:12.013216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:47.593303Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T17:37:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-28T18:54:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40505, "title": "Will BLK's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:47.326550Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T18:54:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T17:37:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BlackRock, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BLK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:27) is 1014.72. You can find more information about BlackRock, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLK\n\nBlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Greenwich, Connecticut; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Newport Beach, California; Palo Alto, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Princeton, New Jersey; San Francisco, California; Santa Monica, California; Seattle, Washington; Washington, DC; West Palm Beach, Florida; Wilmington, Delaware; Mexico; Canada; South Africa; Netherlands; Greece; Serbia; Belgium; Hungary; Denmark; Ireland; Scotland; Germany; Switzerland; England; Luxembourg; Spain; Italy; France; Sweden; Austria; India; China; Australia; Hong Kong; South Korea; Singapore; Taiwan; Japan; Colombia; Argentina; Peru; Chile; Brazil; UAE; Saudi Arabia; Israel.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BLK\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BLK. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BLK's close price rises?", "post_id": 40846, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764358264.580355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764358264.580355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5430347407407405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 5.0, 21.0, 8.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BlackRock, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BLK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:27) is 1014.72. You can find more information about BlackRock, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLK\n\nBlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Greenwich, Connecticut; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Newport Beach, California; Palo Alto, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Princeton, New Jersey; San Francisco, California; Santa Monica, California; Seattle, Washington; Washington, DC; West Palm Beach, Florida; Wilmington, Delaware; Mexico; Canada; South Africa; Netherlands; Greece; Serbia; Belgium; Hungary; Denmark; Ireland; Scotland; Germany; Switzerland; England; Luxembourg; Spain; Italy; France; Sweden; Austria; India; China; Australia; Hong Kong; South Korea; Singapore; Taiwan; Japan; Colombia; Argentina; Peru; Chile; Brazil; UAE; Saudi Arabia; Israel.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BLK\"}}`" }, { "id": 40844, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-bailout-argentina-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.229336Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T05:22:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:22.205508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.530713Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T17:59:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-28T05:22:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40503, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.229759Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T05:22:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T17:59:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031\n- Original question title: Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n> \n> * Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n> * Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n> * Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n> \n> In the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n> \n> During Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n> \n> Prior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n> \n> In September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 17:59:30 is higher than 24.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40844, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764310745.965709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764310745.965709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3800475185185186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031\n- Original question title: Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n> \n> * Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n> * Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n> * Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n> \n> In the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n> \n> During Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n> \n> Prior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n> \n> In September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`" }, { "id": 40843, "title": "Will FDX's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "short_title": "FDX's close price rises?", "url_title": "FDX's close price rises?", "slug": "fdxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.843396Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T00:53:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:10.677055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.058003Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T02:29:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-28T00:53:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40502, "title": "Will FDX's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.843809Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T00:53:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T02:29:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "FedEx Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FDX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:23) is 269.43. You can find more information about FedEx Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDX\n\nFedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. It also provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, free Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, expedited U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean freight-forwarding and cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage and clearance, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FDX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FDX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FDX's close price rises?", "post_id": 40843, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764295176.698423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764295176.698423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5408358634538152 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 9.0, 7.0, 17.0, 4.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "FedEx Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FDX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:23) is 269.43. You can find more information about FedEx Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDX\n\nFedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. It also provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, free Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, expedited U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean freight-forwarding and cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage and clearance, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FDX\"}}`" }, { "id": 40842, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.331617Z", "published_at": "2025-11-27T23:17:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:33.696849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.592786Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T21:07:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-27T23:17:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40501, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.332040Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T23:17:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T21:07:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 21:07:19 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40842, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764288800.548009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23809333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764288800.548009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23809333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7619066666666667, 0.23809333333333332 ], "means": [ 0.24993540740740747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40841, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-argentinas-yoy-inflation-below-30-for-december-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:44.932306Z", "published_at": "2025-11-27T15:24:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:56.476465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.156112Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T04:15:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-27T15:24:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40500, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:44.932763Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T15:24:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T04:15:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117\n- Original question title: Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n> \n> This question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n> \n> However, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n> \n> According to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 04:15:16 is higher than 55.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40841, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764260081.452274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764260081.452274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.48877597069597095 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117\n- Original question title: Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n> \n> This question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n> \n> However, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n> \n> According to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 40839, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 94.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-elon-musk-be-worlds-richest-person-on-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:43.944778Z", "published_at": "2025-11-27T10:31:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:35.091225Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:44.197498Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:03:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-27T10:31:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40498, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 94.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:43.945254Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T10:31:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:03:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 94.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If both Elon Musk and another individual are ranked #1, this resolves as **No**.\n> * If the Billionaires Index is not available on December 31, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available. If it is not available before January 4, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * Bloomberg outlines its methodology [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/methodology/).\n> * In the event of Bloomberg changing its methodology for calculating the net worths of the individuals on its list, Admins will make a determination about whether the change is substantial enough to annul the question, at their discretion.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Bloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n> \n> Elon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n> \n> Secondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30863,\"question_id\":30605,\"last_cp\":0.94}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863). If the community prediction on 2025-12-05 22:03:59 is higher than 94.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40839, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764242901.240774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764242901.240774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5553479443223441 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 94.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If both Elon Musk and another individual are ranked #1, this resolves as **No**.\n> * If the Billionaires Index is not available on December 31, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available. If it is not available before January 4, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * Bloomberg outlines its methodology [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/methodology/).\n> * In the event of Bloomberg changing its methodology for calculating the net worths of the individuals on its list, Admins will make a determination about whether the change is substantial enough to annul the question, at their discretion.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Bloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n> \n> Elon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n> \n> Secondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30863,\"question_id\":30605,\"last_cp\":0.94}}`" }, { "id": 40834, "title": "Will UBER's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "UBER's close price rises?", "url_title": "UBER's close price rises?", "slug": "ubers-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.546633Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T14:13:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:38.812478Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.895460Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:11:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-26T14:13:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40493, "title": "Will UBER's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.547060Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T14:13:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:11:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Uber Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is UBER. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:30) is 83.87. You can find more information about Uber Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER\n\nUber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retails, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics network, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized business to global enterprises. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UBER\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of UBER. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "UBER's close price rises?", "post_id": 40834, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764171398.41488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764171398.41488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5644295238095234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 5.0, 8.0, 21.0, 8.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Uber Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is UBER. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:30) is 83.87. You can find more information about Uber Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER\n\nUber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retails, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics network, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized business to global enterprises. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UBER\"}}`" }, { "id": 40833, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:40.866741Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T11:35:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:39.355894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.281820Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T10:01:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-26T11:35:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40492, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:40.867203Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T11:35:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T10:01:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514). If the community prediction on 2025-12-03 10:01:47 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 40833, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764160397.280555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764160397.280555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4634765567765568 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40831, "title": "Will ADM's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "ADM's close price rises?", "url_title": "ADM's close price rises?", "slug": "adms-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:39.889575Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T08:01:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:36.638380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:40.140307Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T14:48:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-26T08:01:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40490, "title": "Will ADM's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:39.889989Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T08:01:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T14:48:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ADM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:20) is 58.63. You can find more information about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADM\n\nArcher-Daniels-Midland Company engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company originates, merchandises, stores, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds and soft seeds. It engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and various structured trade finance activities. In addition, the company offers soybean meal and oil; vegetable and salad oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, it provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; corn germ; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides proteins, natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and food products. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouse; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ADM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ADM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ADM's close price rises?", "post_id": 40831, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764148686.990647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764148686.990647, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5187922344322342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 5.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 5.0, 6.0, 8.0, 10.0, 7.0, 20.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ADM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:20) is 58.63. You can find more information about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADM\n\nArcher-Daniels-Midland Company engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company originates, merchandises, stores, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds and soft seeds. It engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and various structured trade finance activities. In addition, the company offers soybean meal and oil; vegetable and salad oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, it provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; corn germ; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides proteins, natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and food products. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouse; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ADM\"}}`" }, { "id": 40826, "title": "Will DOV's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "url_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "slug": "dovs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.226507Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:11.410634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.511227Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40485, "title": "Will DOV's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.227202Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dover Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:40) is 183.58. You can find more information about Dover Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOV\n\nDover Corporation provides equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company's Engineered Products segment provides various equipment, component, software, solution, and services that are used in vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, and fluid dispensing end-market. This segment offers software solutions and services used in light and heavy-duty vehicle lifts, wheel service equipment, vehicle diagnostics, and vehicle collision repair solutions; winches, hoists, bearings, drives, and electric monitoring system; and radio frequency and microwave filters and switches, and signal intelligence solutions, as well as soldering and fluid dispensing solutions. Its Clean Energy & Fueling segment offers component, equipment, and software and service solution enabling safe storage and transport of fuel, cryogenic gases, and hazardous fluids, as well as operation of retail fueling and vehicle wash establishment. The company's Imaging & Identification segment provides precision marking and coding, product traceability equipment, brand protection, and digital textile printing equipment and solution, as well as consumable, software, and service to packaged and consumer goods, pharmaceutical, industrial manufacturing, textile, and other end-market. Its Pumps & Process Solutions segment manufactures specialty pump, connector, flow meter, fluid connecting solution, plastics and polymer processing equipment, and engineered components for rotating and reciprocating machines. The company's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment manufactures refrigeration system, refrigeration display case, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer door, and brazed plate heat exchanger for industrial heating and cooling, and residential climate control applications. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DOV. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is DOV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:40) is 183.58. You can find more information about Dover Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOV\n\nDover Corporation provides equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company's Engineered Products segment provides various equipment, component, software, solution, and services that are used in vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, and fluid dispensing end-market. This segment offers software solutions and services used in light and heavy-duty vehicle lifts, wheel service equipment, vehicle diagnostics, and vehicle collision repair solutions; winches, hoists, bearings, drives, and electric monitoring system; and radio frequency and microwave filters and switches, and signal intelligence solutions, as well as soldering and fluid dispensing solutions. Its Clean Energy & Fueling segment offers component, equipment, and software and service solution enabling safe storage and transport of fuel, cryogenic gases, and hazardous fluids, as well as operation of retail fueling and vehicle wash establishment. The company's Imaging & Identification segment provides precision marking and coding, product traceability equipment, brand protection, and digital textile printing equipment and solution, as well as consumable, software, and service to packaged and consumer goods, pharmaceutical, industrial manufacturing, textile, and other end-market. Its Pumps & Process Solutions segment manufactures specialty pump, connector, flow meter, fluid connecting solution, plastics and polymer processing equipment, and engineered components for rotating and reciprocating machines. The company's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment manufactures refrigeration system, refrigeration display case, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer door, and brazed plate heat exchanger for industrial heating and cooling, and residential climate control applications. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOV\"}}`" }, { "id": 40825, "title": "Will D's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "short_title": "D's close price rises?", "url_title": "D's close price rises?", "slug": "ds-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.528896Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T21:32:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:10.127339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.797945Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T10:46:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T21:32:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40484, "title": "Will D's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.529405Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T21:32:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T10:46:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T23:02:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dominion Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is D. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:21) is 61.47. You can find more information about Dominion Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/D\n\nDominion Energy, Inc. provides regulated electricity and natural gas services in the United States. It operates through Dominion Energy Virginia, Dominion Energy South Carolina, and Contracted Energy segments. The Dominion Energy Virginia segment engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity to approximately 2.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers in Virginia and North Carolina. The Dominion Energy South Carolina segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.8 million customers in the central, southern, and southwestern portions of South Carolina; and distributes natural gas to approximately 0.5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in South Carolina. The Contracted Energy segment is involved in the nonregulated long-term contracted renewable electric generation fleet and renewable natural gas facility. As of December 31, 2024, the company's portfolio of assets included approximately 30.3 GW of electric generating capacity, 10,600 miles of electric transmission lines, and 79,700 miles of electric distribution lines. The company was formerly known as Dominion Resources, Inc. Dominion Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"D\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of D. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is D. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:21) is 61.47. You can find more information about Dominion Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/D\n\nDominion Energy, Inc. provides regulated electricity and natural gas services in the United States. It operates through Dominion Energy Virginia, Dominion Energy South Carolina, and Contracted Energy segments. The Dominion Energy Virginia segment engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity to approximately 2.8 million residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental customers in Virginia and North Carolina. The Dominion Energy South Carolina segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to approximately 0.8 million customers in the central, southern, and southwestern portions of South Carolina; and distributes natural gas to approximately 0.5 million residential, commercial, and industrial customers in South Carolina. The Contracted Energy segment is involved in the nonregulated long-term contracted renewable electric generation fleet and renewable natural gas facility. As of December 31, 2024, the company's portfolio of assets included approximately 30.3 GW of electric generating capacity, 10,600 miles of electric transmission lines, and 79,700 miles of electric distribution lines. The company was formerly known as Dominion Resources, Inc. Dominion Energy, Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"D\"}}`" }, { "id": 40824, "title": "Will HIG's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "short_title": "HIG's close price rises?", "url_title": "HIG's close price rises?", "slug": "higs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.001268Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T17:16:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:12.352912Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.207490Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:10:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T17:16:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40483, "title": "Will HIG's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:36.001684Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T17:16:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:10:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T18:46:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HIG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:36) is 136.45. You can find more information about The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG\n\nThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Business Insurance segment offers insurance coverages, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Insurance segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channels and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Employee Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and leave management solution. This segment also distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers managed mutual funds across various asset classes; and exchange-traded funds through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers, as well as investment management, distribution, and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HIG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of HIG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "HIG's close price rises?", "post_id": 40824, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764094699.847798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764094699.847798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5338941111111108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.0, 5.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0, 2.0, 6.0, 18.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HIG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:36) is 136.45. You can find more information about The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HIG\n\nThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance and financial services to individual and business customers in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its Business Insurance segment offers insurance coverages, including workers' compensation, property, automobile, general and professional liability, package business, umbrella, fidelity and surety, marine, livestock, accident, health, and reinsurance through regional offices, branches, sales and policyholder service centers, independent retail agents and brokers, wholesale agents, and reinsurance brokers. The company's Personal Insurance segment provides automobile, homeowners, and personal umbrella coverages through direct-to-consumer channels and independent agents. Its Property & Casualty Other Operations segment offers coverage for asbestos and environmental exposures. The company's Employee Benefits segment provides group life, disability, and other group coverages to members of employer groups, associations, and affinity groups through direct insurance policies; reinsurance to other insurance companies; employer paid and voluntary product coverages; disability underwriting, administration, and claims processing to self-funded employer plans; and leave management solution. This segment also distributes its group insurance products and services through brokers, consultants, third-party administrators, trade associations, and private exchanges. Its Hartford Funds segment offers managed mutual funds across various asset classes; and exchange-traded funds through broker-dealer organizations, independent financial advisers, defined contribution plans, financial consultants, bank trust groups, and registered investment advisers, as well as investment management, distribution, and administrative services, such as product design, implementation, and oversight. The Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. was founded in 1810 and is headquartered in Hartford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HIG\"}}`" }, { "id": 40823, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.40% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:35.529130Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T13:57:38Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:16.817203Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:35.815606Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T03:09:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T13:57:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40482, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.40% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:35.529554Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T13:57:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T03:09:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T15:27:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.054}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 03:09:55 is higher than 5.40%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 40823, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764081216.157495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764081216.157495, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.29330769230769227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.054}}`" }, { "id": 40820, "title": "Will FE's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "short_title": "FE's close price rises?", "url_title": "FE's close price rises?", "slug": "fes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:34.059192Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T06:44:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:35.367097Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:34.253988Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T04:36:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T06:44:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40479, "title": "Will FE's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-25?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:34.059625Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T06:44:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T04:36:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T08:14:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "FirstEnergy Corp. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:38) is 46.89. You can find more information about FirstEnergy Corp. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FE\n\nFirstEnergy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity in the United States. It operates through Distribution, Integrated, and Stand-Alone Transmission segments. The company owns and operates coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, and solar power generating facilities. It operates 252,244 distribution line miles and 24,143 transmission line miles, including overhead pole line and underground conduit carrying primary, secondary, and street lighting circuits. The company serves customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland, and New York. FirstEnergy Corp. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Akron, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FE. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-25, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FE's close price rises?", "post_id": 40820, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764054826.131525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764054826.131525, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5451962962962963 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 4.0, 8.0, 10.0, 24.0, 4.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "FirstEnergy Corp. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:38) is 46.89. You can find more information about FirstEnergy Corp. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FE\n\nFirstEnergy Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, distribution, and transmission of electricity in the United States. It operates through Distribution, Integrated, and Stand-Alone Transmission segments. The company owns and operates coal-fired, nuclear, hydroelectric, wind, and solar power generating facilities. It operates 252,244 distribution line miles and 24,143 transmission line miles, including overhead pole line and underground conduit carrying primary, secondary, and street lighting circuits. The company serves customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland, and New York. FirstEnergy Corp. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Akron, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FE\"}}`" }, { "id": 40819, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-01 for the Metaculus question \"Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-white-house-revoke-media-credentials-for-2-outlets-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.565369Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T05:31:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:40.053639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.861328Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:09:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T05:31:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40478, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-01 for the Metaculus question \"Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.565809Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T05:31:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T15:09:25Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T07:01:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516\n- Original question title: Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n> \n> \\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n> \n> \\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34516,\"question_id\":34031,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516). If the community prediction on 2025-12-01 15:09:25 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"White House revoke media credentials for 2 outlets in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40819, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764052218.063181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764052218.063181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.29231882064998194 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34516\n- Original question title: Will the White House revoke the media credentials of reporters from two media outlets before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report the White House revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two previously credentialed media outlets before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- This question will resolve to Yes only if the White House formally revokes the media credentials of two or more reporters from at least two media outlets that were credentialed by the White House at any point prior to the revocation.\n> \n> \\- The revocation must apply to reporters from the specific outlets and be publicly announced by the White House or reported by credible news sources. The question still resolves to Yes even if the credentials are later restored.\n> \n> \\- There is no limitation on when the reporters were initially credentialed; they must only be credentialed at the time of the revocation.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published before January 1, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Trump has long enjoyed a contentious relationship with mainstream media, which he terms \"fake news.\" His [<u>first administration revoked the White House press passes for dozens of journalists</u>](https://www.cjr.org/the_media_today/white-house-press-passes.php). Further, near the end of the 2024 campaign, [<u>many journalists were denied access to an election watch event</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/05/media/trump-revokes-journalists-election-night-credentials/index.html). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34516,\"question_id\":34031,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40818, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-trump-to-invoke-insurrection-act-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:32.993704Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T03:47:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:15.061318Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:33.285423Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T06:49:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T03:47:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40477, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-12-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:32.994095Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T03:47:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T06:49:13Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T05:17:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512). If the community prediction on 2025-12-06 06:49:13 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40818, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764044962.087352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764044962.087352, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33594652788990803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`" }, { "id": 40814, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-eu-impose-a-dma-fine-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:31.047537Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T22:42:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:25.222399Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:31.345828Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T20:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:52:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T22:42:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40473, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:31.047957Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T22:42:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T20:49:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:52:34.018444Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-25T00:12:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40406\n- Original question title: Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, the European Commission officially imposes a Digital Markets Act fine against any designated gatekeeper.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Reductions, appeals, or suspensions after the initial announcement will not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Digital Markets Act (DMA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act) is a European Union law that aims to curb anti-competitive behavior by major online platforms designated as gatekeepers; as of October 2025 [these are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act#Identified_gatekeepers) Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance. The DMA took effect during May 2023 and began full enforcement in March 2024. It empowers the European Commission to investigate violations, prohibit certain practices (like self-preferencing or restricting third-party app stores), and to impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover, or 20% for repeat offenses.\n> \n> In 2025, the Commission escalated enforcement. In March 2025, it opened non-compliance proceedings against several gatekeepers, and in April 2025 [issued the first fines](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1085) for DMA breaches: €500 million to Apple and €200 million to Meta. As of October 2025, preliminary findings remain open against [Alphabet](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-likely-be-hit-with-second-eu-antitrust-fine-sources-say-2025-09-25/), with possible final decisions expected later in the year.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40406,\"question_id\":39976,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40406). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 20:49:22 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the EU impose a DMA fine in Q4 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40814, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764026629.865893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764026629.865893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.40497619047619066 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40406\n- Original question title: Will the EU impose a Digital Markets Act fine during Q4 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, the European Commission officially imposes a Digital Markets Act fine against any designated gatekeeper.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Reductions, appeals, or suspensions after the initial announcement will not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Digital Markets Act (DMA)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act) is a European Union law that aims to curb anti-competitive behavior by major online platforms designated as gatekeepers; as of October 2025 [these are](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Markets_Act#Identified_gatekeepers) Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and ByteDance. The DMA took effect during May 2023 and began full enforcement in March 2024. It empowers the European Commission to investigate violations, prohibit certain practices (like self-preferencing or restricting third-party app stores), and to impose fines of up to 10% of a company’s global annual turnover, or 20% for repeat offenses.\n> \n> In 2025, the Commission escalated enforcement. In March 2025, it opened non-compliance proceedings against several gatekeepers, and in April 2025 [issued the first fines](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1085) for DMA breaches: €500 million to Apple and €200 million to Meta. As of October 2025, preliminary findings remain open against [Alphabet](https://www.reuters.com/world/google-likely-be-hit-with-second-eu-antitrust-fine-sources-say-2025-09-25/), with possible final decisions expected later in the year.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40406,\"question_id\":39976,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 40813, "title": "Will LULU's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "url_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "slug": "lulus-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.540957Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:22.879037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.823958Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T01:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40472, "title": "Will LULU's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.541445Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:11:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T01:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:41:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "lululemon athletica inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LULU. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:29) is 168.18. You can find more information about lululemon athletica inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU\n\nlululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LULU\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LULU. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "LULU's close price rises?", "post_id": 40813, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764022287.987349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5269049461221755 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764022287.987349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5269049461221755 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4623521002780182 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 4.0, 20.0, 1.0, 6.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "lululemon athletica inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LULU. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:29) is 168.18. You can find more information about lululemon athletica inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LULU\n\nlululemon athletica inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, distributes, and retails technical athletic apparel, footwear, and accessories for women and men under the lululemon brand in the United States, Canada, Mexico, China Mainland, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau, and internationally. The company offers pants, shorts, tops, and jackets for athletic activities, such as yoga, running, training, and other activities. It also provides fitness-inspired accessories. The company sells its products through company-operated stores; seasonal stores, pop-ups, university campus retailers, and yoga and fitness studios; outlets; Like New, a re-commerce program; and its e-commerce website. lululemon athletica inc. was founded in 1998 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LULU\"}}`" }, { "id": 40812, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "url_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "slug": "rjfs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.017922Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:44.996291Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.286575Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:42:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T05:37:45.439831Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40471, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:30.018337Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T21:08:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:42:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T22:38:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:33) is 152.99. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of RJF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "post_id": 40812, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764021272.032104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764021272.032104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5583846014492749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 4.0, 9.0, 17.0, 7.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:33) is 152.99. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`" } ] }
