Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6631, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41428, "title": "Will WAT's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-07?", "short_title": "WAT's close price rises?", "url_title": "WAT's close price rises?", "slug": "wats-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:09.973352Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T18:53:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-07T20:24:00.226311Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:10.271781Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T18:53:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41143, "title": "Will WAT's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-07?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:09.973803Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T18:53:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T21:26:32Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T20:23:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Waters Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:54) is 381.96. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. In addition, the company offers MS technology are used in drug discovery and development comprising clinical trial testing, the analysis of proteins in disease processes, nutritional safety analysis, and environmental testing. Further, the company provides thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments for use in predicting the suitability and stability of fine chemicals, pharmaceuticals, water, polymers, metals, and viscous liquids for various industrial, consumer good, and healthcare products, as well as for life science research. Its products are used by clinical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, industrial, nutritional safety, environmental, academic, and governmental customers working in research and development, quality assurance, and other laboratory applications. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WAT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WAT. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-07, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "WAT's close price rises?", "post_id": 41428, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767816703.666099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767816703.666099, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5162071753466065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 5.0, 5.0, 14.0, 13.0, 3.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Waters Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:54) is 381.96. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. In addition, the company offers MS technology are used in drug discovery and development comprising clinical trial testing, the analysis of proteins in disease processes, nutritional safety analysis, and environmental testing. Further, the company provides thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments for use in predicting the suitability and stability of fine chemicals, pharmaceuticals, water, polymers, metals, and viscous liquids for various industrial, consumer good, and healthcare products, as well as for life science research. Its products are used by clinical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, industrial, nutritional safety, environmental, academic, and governmental customers working in research and development, quality assurance, and other laboratory applications. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WAT\"}}`" }, { "id": 41425, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-lisa-cook-not-a-member-of-the-federal-reserve-board-before-nov-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:59.328866Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T13:19:16Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-07T14:50:00.240897Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:59.574432Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T11:56:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:19:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41140, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 11.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:59.329281Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:19:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T11:56:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T14:49:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711\n- Original question title: Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 11.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n> \n> In August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n> \n> According to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n> \n> > Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n> \n> Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39711,\"question_id\":39090,\"last_cp\":0.11}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 11:56:27 is higher than 11.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 11.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 11:56:27, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41425, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767797248.931302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767797248.931302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6849999999999999, 0.315 ], "means": [ 0.3318112239579261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39711\n- Original question title: Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 11.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n> \n> In August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n> \n> According to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n> \n> > Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n> \n> Lisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39711,\"question_id\":39090,\"last_cp\":0.11}}`" }, { "id": 41424, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:55.762033Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T07:02:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-07T08:33:00.189575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:56.001717Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:09:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T07:02:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41139, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:55.762554Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T07:02:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:09:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T08:32:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 17:09:42 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 17:09:42, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "post_id": 41424, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767774640.895141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767774640.895141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3088831285491672 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41422, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-scotus-strike-down-louisianas-congressional-map-restoring-gop-lean", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:48.825230Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T00:41:04Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-07T02:12:00.262540Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:49.016429Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:14:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T00:41:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41137, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 80.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:48.825634Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T00:41:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:14:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-07T02:11:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40417\n- Original question title: In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 5, 2026, in [Louisiana, Appellant v Phillip Callais, et al.](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html), the United States Supreme Court holds that the Louisiana congressional [map](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/Act2Congress/District%20and%20Split%20Parish%20Maps/Act%202%20\\(SB8\\)%201st%20ES%202024%20-%20Congressional%20Districts%20-%20Statewide.pdf) for 2024 ([SB8](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/2024CONGRESSACT2)) is illegal, unconstitutional, or otherwise invalid under the US Constitution or federal law. \n> \n> If, before October 5, 2026, the Court issues a final disposition of Louisiana v. Callais affirming the SB8 map, or dismissing, vacating or remanding the case on other grounds, then the question resolves as **No**. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> In January 2024, lawmakers in Louisiana passed [SB8](https://legislation.ballotpedia.org/elections/bill/8947), which created two majority-Black congressional districts in the state out of the Louisiana's total of six districts (with about one-third of the state's population [identifying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Louisiana) as Black or African American in the 2020 census). Previously the state [attempted](https://about.bgov.com/insights/news/louisiana-lawmakers-keep-one-black-district-in-u-s-house-plan/) to have only one such district, before [losing](https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/15/5th-circuit-denies-louisianas-appeal-in-congressional-redistricting-case/) in court. \n> \n> The Voting Rights Act of 1965 in Section 2 [says](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10301) no citizen may be denied the right to vote on account of race. In practice this has meant, in what has been called the [Gingles Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornburg_v._Gingles#Opinion_of_the_Court) from a 1986 Supreme Court decision, that a minority group must be given a congressional district when it is large and geographically compact enough to form a cohesive district, votes in a cohesive manner, and votes in a different manner from the majority population of the state. \n> \n> With Louisiana having highly [polarized](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voting-rights-act-returns-supreme-court) voting patterns by race, the question of whether one of its six congressional districts is majority-Black or whether two of its districts are means the difference between sending two Democrats and four Republicans to Congress or just one Democrat and five Republicans. Across the South, which has similar racial polarization, if efforts to reduce the numbers of majority-Black congressional districts succeed, then it could mean up to 19 seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans according to[ one estimate](https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-lose-these-districts-if-scotus-curtails-voting-rights-act-10879309). \n> \n> Shortly after SB8's enactment, a group of voters describing themselves as \"non-African American\" [sued](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/03/court-weighs-louisiana-redistricting-with-second-majority-black-district/) over the map, arguing it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering of voters by race. At the time of this question, the case, Louisiana v. Callais, is being litigated before the US Supreme Court. Legal experts [have](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/15/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-argument-00609187) [varied](https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152557) opinions on how the Court might rule. \n> \n> For more information please see coverage at [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais-2/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40417,\"question_id\":39987,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40417) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 15:14:55 is higher than 80.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 80.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 15:14:55, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana's congressional map, restoring GOP-lean?\"?", "post_id": 41422, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767751194.298952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767751194.298952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3725 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6275, 0.3725 ], "means": [ 0.39039794749772394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40417\n- Original question title: In Louisiana v. Callais, will SCOTUS strike down Louisiana’s two majority-Black districts, restoring a GOP-leaning map?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 80.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 5, 2026, in [Louisiana, Appellant v Phillip Callais, et al.](https://www.supremecourt.gov/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html), the United States Supreme Court holds that the Louisiana congressional [map](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/Act2Congress/District%20and%20Split%20Parish%20Maps/Act%202%20\\(SB8\\)%201st%20ES%202024%20-%20Congressional%20Districts%20-%20Statewide.pdf) for 2024 ([SB8](https://redist.legis.la.gov/2024_Files/2024CONGRESSACT2)) is illegal, unconstitutional, or otherwise invalid under the US Constitution or federal law. \n> \n> If, before October 5, 2026, the Court issues a final disposition of Louisiana v. Callais affirming the SB8 map, or dismissing, vacating or remanding the case on other grounds, then the question resolves as **No**. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> In January 2024, lawmakers in Louisiana passed [SB8](https://legislation.ballotpedia.org/elections/bill/8947), which created two majority-Black congressional districts in the state out of the Louisiana's total of six districts (with about one-third of the state's population [identifying](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Louisiana) as Black or African American in the 2020 census). Previously the state [attempted](https://about.bgov.com/insights/news/louisiana-lawmakers-keep-one-black-district-in-u-s-house-plan/) to have only one such district, before [losing](https://lailluminator.com/2023/12/15/5th-circuit-denies-louisianas-appeal-in-congressional-redistricting-case/) in court. \n> \n> The Voting Rights Act of 1965 in Section 2 [says](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/52/10301) no citizen may be denied the right to vote on account of race. In practice this has meant, in what has been called the [Gingles Test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thornburg_v._Gingles#Opinion_of_the_Court) from a 1986 Supreme Court decision, that a minority group must be given a congressional district when it is large and geographically compact enough to form a cohesive district, votes in a cohesive manner, and votes in a different manner from the majority population of the state. \n> \n> With Louisiana having highly [polarized](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/voting-rights-act-returns-supreme-court) voting patterns by race, the question of whether one of its six congressional districts is majority-Black or whether two of its districts are means the difference between sending two Democrats and four Republicans to Congress or just one Democrat and five Republicans. Across the South, which has similar racial polarization, if efforts to reduce the numbers of majority-Black congressional districts succeed, then it could mean up to 19 seats flipping from Democrats to Republicans according to[ one estimate](https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-could-lose-these-districts-if-scotus-curtails-voting-rights-act-10879309). \n> \n> Shortly after SB8's enactment, a group of voters describing themselves as \"non-African American\" [sued](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/03/court-weighs-louisiana-redistricting-with-second-majority-black-district/) over the map, arguing it was an unconstitutional gerrymandering of voters by race. At the time of this question, the case, Louisiana v. Callais, is being litigated before the US Supreme Court. Legal experts [have](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/15/supreme-court-voting-rights-act-argument-00609187) [varied](https://electionlawblog.org/?p=152557) opinions on how the Court might rule. \n> \n> For more information please see coverage at [SCOTUSblog](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais-2/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40417,\"question_id\":39987,\"last_cp\":0.8}}`" }, { "id": 41421, "title": "Will ERIE's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "ERIE's close price rises?", "url_title": "ERIE's close price rises?", "slug": "eries-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:45.354704Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T20:18:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T21:49:00.160600Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:45.579546Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T20:18:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41136, "title": "Will ERIE's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:45.355101Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T20:18:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T18:39:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:48:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Erie Indemnity Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ERIE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:57) is 277.81. You can find more information about Erie Indemnity Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIE\n\nErie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ERIE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ERIE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ERIE's close price rises?", "post_id": 41421, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767734175.135404, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.517 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767734175.135404, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.517 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.483, 0.517 ], "means": [ 0.49761441818292707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 9.0, 4.0, 15.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Erie Indemnity Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ERIE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:57) is 277.81. You can find more information about Erie Indemnity Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ERIE\n\nErie Indemnity Company operates as a managing attorney-in-fact for the subscribers at the Erie Insurance Exchange in the United States. It provides issuance and renewal services; sales related services, including agent compensation, and sales and advertising support services; underwriting services comprise underwriting and policy processing; and other services consist of customer services and administrative support services, as well as information technology services. The company was incorporated in 1925 and is based in Erie, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ERIE\"}}`" }, { "id": 41420, "title": "Will STE's market close price on 2026-01-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "STE's close price rises?", "url_title": "STE's close price rises?", "slug": "stes-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:41.757779Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T19:34:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T21:05:00.302515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:41.948140Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T19:34:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41135, "title": "Will STE's market close price on 2026-01-15 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:41.758184Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T19:34:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T05:13:29Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T21:04:30Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "STERIS plc is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is STE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:09) is 250.04. You can find more information about STERIS plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STE\n\nSTERIS plc provides infection prevention products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Healthcare, Applied Sterilization Technologies (AST), and Life Sciences. The Healthcare segment offers cleaning chemistries and sterility assurance products; automated endoscope reprocessing system and tracking products; endoscopy accessories, washers, sterilizers, and other pieces of capital equipment for the operation of a sterile processing department; and equipment used directly in procedure rooms, including surgical tables, lights, and connectivity solutions, as well as equipment management services. It also provides capital equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; preventive maintenance programs and repair services; instrument, devices, and endoscope repair and maintenance services; and custom process improvement consulting and outsourced instrument sterile processing services. The AST segment provides contract sterilization and testing services for medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturers through a network of contract sterilization and laboratory facilities, as well as integrated sterilization equipment and control systems to medical device manufacturers and research institutions. The Life Sciences segment designs, manufactures, and sells consumable products, such as pharmaceutical detergents, cleanroom disinfectants and sterilants, pharmaceutical grade and research sterilizers and washers, sterility assurance and maintenance products, vaporized hydrogen peroxide room decontamination systems and sterilizers, and high purity water and pure steam generators. This segment also offers equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; and preventive maintenance programs and repair services. It serves its products and services to hospitals, other healthcare providers, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"STE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of STE. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. 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It's ticker is STE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:09) is 250.04. You can find more information about STERIS plc at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/STE\n\nSTERIS plc provides infection prevention products and services worldwide. It operates in three segments: Healthcare, Applied Sterilization Technologies (AST), and Life Sciences. The Healthcare segment offers cleaning chemistries and sterility assurance products; automated endoscope reprocessing system and tracking products; endoscopy accessories, washers, sterilizers, and other pieces of capital equipment for the operation of a sterile processing department; and equipment used directly in procedure rooms, including surgical tables, lights, and connectivity solutions, as well as equipment management services. It also provides capital equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; preventive maintenance programs and repair services; instrument, devices, and endoscope repair and maintenance services; and custom process improvement consulting and outsourced instrument sterile processing services. The AST segment provides contract sterilization and testing services for medical device and pharmaceutical manufacturers through a network of contract sterilization and laboratory facilities, as well as integrated sterilization equipment and control systems to medical device manufacturers and research institutions. The Life Sciences segment designs, manufactures, and sells consumable products, such as pharmaceutical detergents, cleanroom disinfectants and sterilants, pharmaceutical grade and research sterilizers and washers, sterility assurance and maintenance products, vaporized hydrogen peroxide room decontamination systems and sterilizers, and high purity water and pure steam generators. This segment also offers equipment installation, maintenance, upgradation, repair, and troubleshooting services; and preventive maintenance programs and repair services. It serves its products and services to hospitals, other healthcare providers, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. The company was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Mentor, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"STE\"}}`" }, { "id": 41417, "title": "Will VICI's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "VICI's close price rises?", "url_title": "VICI's close price rises?", "slug": "vicis-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:26.356201Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T18:14:43Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T19:45:00.257932Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:26.568028Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T19:44:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T19:44:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:15:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T18:14:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41132, "title": "Will VICI's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:26.356647Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T18:14:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T19:44:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T19:44:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T13:15:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T19:44:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T19:44:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "VICI Properties Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is VICI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:53) is 28.15. You can find more information about VICI Properties Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICI\n\nVICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties across the United States and Canada. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 127 million square feet and features approximately 60,300 hotel rooms and over 500 restaurants, bars, nightclubs and sportsbooks. Its properties are occupied by industry-leading gaming, leisure and hospitality operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. VICI Properties has a growing array of real estate and financing partnerships with leading developers and operators in other experiential sectors, including Cabot, Cain, Canyon Ranch, Chelsea Piers, Great Wolf Resorts, Homefield, Kalahari Resorts and Lucky Strike Entertainment. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and approximately 33 acres of undeveloped and underdeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' goal is to create the highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio through a strategy of partnering with the highest quality experiential place makers and operators.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VICI\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of VICI. 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It's ticker is VICI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:53) is 28.15. You can find more information about VICI Properties Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VICI\n\nVICI Properties Inc. is an S&P 500 experiential real estate investment trust that owns one of the largest portfolios of market-leading gaming, hospitality, wellness, entertainment and leisure destinations, including Caesars Palace Las Vegas, MGM Grand and the Venetian Resort Las Vegas, three of the most iconic entertainment facilities on the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties owns 93 experiential assets across a geographically diverse portfolio consisting of 54 gaming properties and 39 other experiential properties across the United States and Canada. The portfolio is comprised of approximately 127 million square feet and features approximately 60,300 hotel rooms and over 500 restaurants, bars, nightclubs and sportsbooks. Its properties are occupied by industry-leading gaming, leisure and hospitality operators under long-term, triple-net lease agreements. VICI Properties has a growing array of real estate and financing partnerships with leading developers and operators in other experiential sectors, including Cabot, Cain, Canyon Ranch, Chelsea Piers, Great Wolf Resorts, Homefield, Kalahari Resorts and Lucky Strike Entertainment. VICI Properties also owns four championship golf courses and approximately 33 acres of undeveloped and underdeveloped land adjacent to the Las Vegas Strip. VICI Properties' goal is to create the highest quality and most productive experiential real estate portfolio through a strategy of partnering with the highest quality experiential place makers and operators.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VICI\"}}`" }, { "id": 41416, "title": "Will DGX's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "DGX's close price rises?", "url_title": "DGX's close price rises?", "slug": "dgxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:22.850496Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T16:54:54Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T18:25:00.304487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:23.125170Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T18:24:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T18:24:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T06:41:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41131, "title": "Will DGX's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:22.850906Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T18:24:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T18:24:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T06:41:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T18:24:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T18:24:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Quest Diagnostics Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DGX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:13) is 173.79. You can find more information about Quest Diagnostics Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DGX\n\nQuest Diagnostics Incorporated provides diagnostic testing and services in the United States and internationally. The company develops and delivers diagnostic information services, such as routine, non-routine and advanced clinical testing, anatomic pathology testing, and other diagnostic information services. It also provides diagnostic information services primarily under the Quest Diagnostics brand, as well as under the AmeriPath, Dermpath Diagnostics, ExamOne, and Quanum brands to physicians, hospitals, patients and consumers, health plans, government agencies, employers, emerging retail healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies and insurers, commercial clinical laboratories, and accountable care organizations through a network of laboratories, patient service centers, phlebotomists in physician offices, call centers and mobile phlebotomists, nurses, and other health and wellness professionals. In addition, the company offers risk assessment services for the life insurance industry; and healthcare organizations and clinicians information technology solutions. Quest Diagnostics Incorporated was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DGX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DGX. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "DGX's close price rises?", "post_id": 41416, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767721135.644966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767721135.644966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.512216681986321 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 15.0, 6.0, 4.0, 11.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Quest Diagnostics Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DGX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:13) is 173.79. You can find more information about Quest Diagnostics Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DGX\n\nQuest Diagnostics Incorporated provides diagnostic testing and services in the United States and internationally. The company develops and delivers diagnostic information services, such as routine, non-routine and advanced clinical testing, anatomic pathology testing, and other diagnostic information services. It also provides diagnostic information services primarily under the Quest Diagnostics brand, as well as under the AmeriPath, Dermpath Diagnostics, ExamOne, and Quanum brands to physicians, hospitals, patients and consumers, health plans, government agencies, employers, emerging retail healthcare providers, pharmaceutical companies and insurers, commercial clinical laboratories, and accountable care organizations through a network of laboratories, patient service centers, phlebotomists in physician offices, call centers and mobile phlebotomists, nurses, and other health and wellness professionals. In addition, the company offers risk assessment services for the life insurance industry; and healthcare organizations and clinicians information technology solutions. Quest Diagnostics Incorporated was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Secaucus, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DGX\"}}`" }, { "id": 41415, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-tesla-discontinue-the-cybertruck-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:19.278344Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T16:11:19Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T17:42:00.266039Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:19.525775Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T17:41:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T17:41:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T22:33:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T16:11:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41130, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:19.278755Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T16:11:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T17:41:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T17:41:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T22:33:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T17:41:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T17:41:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40849\n- Original question title: Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Tesla discontinues retail sales of the Cybertruck. For purposes of this question, this is defined as one of the following occurring:\n> \n> 1. Removing the ability for customers in the United States to place an order to purchase a new Cybertruck from the [Tesla website](https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck), with no intention to restore it according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n> 2. Tesla (or anyone authorized to speak on the company's behalf) announcing that the Cybertruck will no longer be either produced for or sold new to retail customers in the United States, effective before the date mentioned above.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Discontinuation of certain models does not count as long as any model of Cybertruck is still available. For example, if Tesla discontinues the All Wheel Drive Cybertruck but the Cyberbeast is still available, it does not count. \n> \n> Discontinuation of Cybertruck sales to the retail market, but continuing sales to the enterprise market (such to SpaceX or to government customers), counts.\n> \n> Temporary pauses, such as supply chain or production issues, do not count.\n> \n> In the event of ambiguity, Metaculus may rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to determine the truth of the matter.\n\nOriginal background: \n> TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon)\n> \n> > The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire.\n> \n> Elektrek (September 13, 2025): [Tesla discontinues cheapest Cybertruck, no one wanted it](https://electrek.co/2025/09/13/tesla-discontinues-cheapest-cybertruck/)\n> \n> > Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.\n> \n> > No one wanted the gutted electric truck.\n> \n> > There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.\n> \n> > Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.\n> \n> > Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.\n> \n> Inside EVs (September 14, 2025): [The Cheapest Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead](https://insideevs.com/news/772205/tesla-cybertruck-rwd-discontinued-2025/) \n> \n> > Pour one out for the bargain-bin Cybertruck. After just five months of orders, Tesla has removed the ability for owners to buy the cheapest variant of the Cybertruck: the rear-wheel-drive model.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40849,\"question_id\":40508,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40849) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 22:33:15 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 22:33:15, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41415, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767719855.287822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767719855.287822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3527254243460138 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40849\n- Original question title: Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Tesla discontinues retail sales of the Cybertruck. For purposes of this question, this is defined as one of the following occurring:\n> \n> 1. Removing the ability for customers in the United States to place an order to purchase a new Cybertruck from the [Tesla website](https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck), with no intention to restore it according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n> 2. Tesla (or anyone authorized to speak on the company's behalf) announcing that the Cybertruck will no longer be either produced for or sold new to retail customers in the United States, effective before the date mentioned above.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Discontinuation of certain models does not count as long as any model of Cybertruck is still available. For example, if Tesla discontinues the All Wheel Drive Cybertruck but the Cyberbeast is still available, it does not count. \n> \n> Discontinuation of Cybertruck sales to the retail market, but continuing sales to the enterprise market (such to SpaceX or to government customers), counts.\n> \n> Temporary pauses, such as supply chain or production issues, do not count.\n> \n> In the event of ambiguity, Metaculus may rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to determine the truth of the matter.\n\nOriginal background: \n> TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon)\n> \n> > The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire.\n> \n> Elektrek (September 13, 2025): [Tesla discontinues cheapest Cybertruck, no one wanted it](https://electrek.co/2025/09/13/tesla-discontinues-cheapest-cybertruck/)\n> \n> > Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.\n> \n> > No one wanted the gutted electric truck.\n> \n> > There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.\n> \n> > Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.\n> \n> > Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.\n> \n> Inside EVs (September 14, 2025): [The Cheapest Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead](https://insideevs.com/news/772205/tesla-cybertruck-rwd-discontinued-2025/) \n> \n> > Pour one out for the bargain-bin Cybertruck. After just five months of orders, Tesla has removed the ability for owners to buy the cheapest variant of the Cybertruck: the rear-wheel-drive model.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40849,\"question_id\":40508,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41414, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "COF's close price rises?", "url_title": "COF's close price rises?", "slug": "cofs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:15.845093Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T15:24:33Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T16:55:00.153236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:16.058760Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T11:15:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T15:24:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41129, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2026-01-14 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:15.845503Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T15:24:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T11:15:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T16:54:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:05) is 247.93. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COF. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "COF's close price rises?", "post_id": 41414, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767718080.410881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767718080.410881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5852855226036536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 8.0, 3.0, 7.0, 16.0, 5.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:05) is 247.93. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`" }, { "id": 41413, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"War between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"War between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-war-between-india-and-pakistan-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:12.426915Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T14:04:17Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T15:35:00.161258Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:12.616983Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:04:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T14:04:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41128, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:12.427312Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T14:04:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:04:49Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T15:34:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37700\n- Original question title: Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2027, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between India and Pakistan, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders or disputed regions of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n> \n> Direct conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of India and Pakistan using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies such as militants in Jammu and Kashmir do not count for the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2027, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n> * Deaths will be totaled over the entire period in question.\n> * If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total number of deaths suffered by India without distinguishing whether those deaths were caused by Pakistan or another adversary), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n> * Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n> * Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n> * Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n> * Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n> \n> India and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n> \n> On May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n> \n> [](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37700,\"question_id\":37047,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37700) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 22:04:49 is higher than 10.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 10.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 22:04:49, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"War between India and Pakistan before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41413, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767712632.911672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767712632.911672, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2995338614804251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37700\n- Original question title: Will there be at least 1,000 deaths due to direct conflict between India and Pakistan before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025, and before January 1, 2027, at least 1,000 deaths have occurred in direct conflict between India and Pakistan, according to reports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). To the extent possible, only deaths caused by and to citizens of each country, members of the military of each country, or people within the borders or disputed regions of each country will be counted toward the 1,000 death threshold.\n> \n> Direct conflict is defined as conflict between the military forces or law enforcement of India and Pakistan using kinetic, explosive, chemical, or nuclear means and all deaths caused by such a conflict count, including civilians. Deaths from attacks by or towards proxies such as militants in Jammu and Kashmir do not count for the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to February 1, 2027, to make a determination and may use all information published prior to that date.\n> * Deaths will be totaled over the entire period in question.\n> * If reported death totals do not specify which conflict they occurred in (e.g., a total number of deaths suffered by India without distinguishing whether those deaths were caused by Pakistan or another adversary), Metaculus may use available estimates to determine whether the threshold has been met.\n> * Deaths from covert ops or other rumored operations will not count, unless explicitly claimed by one of the countries or conclusively shown by independent parties to have been committed by overtly flagged forces of either military during the specified period.\n> * Deaths caused by friendly fire do not count, as long as they are explicitly referred to as such by credible sources.\n> * Deaths caused indirectly, for example as a result of sabotage or cyber-warfare do not count.\n> * Direct effects of an attack (e.g. fires, building collapses, or other immediate consequences occurring within 24 hours of the attack) would be included in the count. Effects that develop over longer timeframes (e.g. economic disruption) would not be counted.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 22, 2025, armed terrorists [killed 26 civilians near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack) in the Indian-administered territories of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement in the attacks, but in response to the attack India [downgraded diplomatic ties](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/nuclear-neighbors-india-pakistan-step-closer-war-heres-121662092) and gunfire was exchanged in skirmishes between the two countries. On May 6, India [conducted missile strikes](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-missiles-border-tensions-21a2859557179f2b32d6b8d5628ac853) on Pakistan in an attack [dubbed Operation Sindoor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_conflict), which Pakistan [claimed](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj6868pdpw4o) killed 31 people. Pakistan also [claimed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/06/asia/india-pakistan-kashmir-conflict-hnk-intl) it shot down five Indian aircraft during the attack. India claimed shelling by Pakistan killed at least 15 civilians on the Indian side of the de facto border.\n> \n> India and Pakistan, the largest and fifth largest countries in the world [by population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population), have a [long history](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan) of conflict over territory. Tensions between the two countries pose an especially high risk due not only to their size, but to the fact that the countries are [two of eight states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) to have acknowledged possessing nuclear weapons.\n> \n> On May 10, US President Donald Trump [announced](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114483405683675564) the countries had reached a truce, which each side later [confirmed](https://apnews.com/article/pakistan-india-tensions-timeline-kashmir-d43f29a59c31e2cf5e56c119aa098cb9). However, India and Pakistan promptly [accused](https://apnews.com/article/india-pakistan-missiles-air-bases-1de0ca13c13899f0bd3530b4808d45ad) each other of violating the ceasefire.\n> \n> [](https://apnews.com/article/214bde245a63339617dd644e061fbbd2?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37700,\"question_id\":37047,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 41411, "title": "Will FAST's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "FAST's close price rises?", "url_title": "FAST's close price rises?", "slug": "fasts-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:04.926156Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T11:32:27Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T13:03:00.175508Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:05.126091Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T11:32:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41126, "title": "Will FAST's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:04.926562Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T11:32:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T13:02:27Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Fastenal Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FAST. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:03) is 40.44. You can find more information about Fastenal Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST\n\nFastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It also offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FAST\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FAST. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FAST's close price rises?", "post_id": 41411, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767703932.149128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5252 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767703932.149128, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5252 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5480657643895191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 8.0, 6.0, 18.0, 4.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fastenal Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FAST. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:03) is 40.44. You can find more information about Fastenal Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FAST\n\nFastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. It offers fasteners, and related industrial and construction supplies under the Fastenal name. The company's fastener products include threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers that are used in manufactured products and construction projects, as well as in the maintenance and repair of machines. It also offers miscellaneous supplies and hardware, including pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire ropes, strut products, rivets, and related accessories. The company serves the manufacturing market comprising original equipment manufacturers; maintenance, repair, and operations customers; non-residential construction market; farmers, truckers, railroads, mining companies, schools, and retail trades; and oil exploration, production, and refinement companies, as well as federal, state, and local governmental entities. Fastenal Company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Winona, Minnesota.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FAST\"}}`" }, { "id": 41409, "title": "Will BSX's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "BSX's close price rises?", "url_title": "BSX's close price rises?", "slug": "bsxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:57.799792Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T08:15:49Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T09:46:00.178681Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:57.993374Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T12:46:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T08:15:49Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41124, "title": "Will BSX's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:57.800251Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T08:15:49Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T12:46:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T09:45:49Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Boston Scientific Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BSX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:02) is 94.71. You can find more information about Boston Scientific Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BSX\n\nBoston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices for use in various interventional medical specialties worldwide. It operates in two segments, MedSurg and Cardiovascular. The company offers devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal conditions, such as resolution clips, biliary stent systems, stents and electrocautery enhanced delivery systems, direct visualization systems, digital catheters, and single-use duodenoscopes, as well as endoluminal surgery and infection prevention portfolios; devices to treat urological conditions, including ureteral stents, catheters, baskets, guidewires, urinary and bowel dysfunction, sheaths, balloons, single-use digital flexible ureteroscopes, holmium laser systems, penile implants, artificial urinary sphincter, laser system, and hydrogel systems; and devices to treat neurological movement disorders and manage chronic pain, such as spinal cord stimulator systems, proprietary programming software, radiofrequency ablation, indirect decompression systems, and intraosseous nerve ablation and deep brain stimulation systems. It also provides technologies for diagnosing and treating coronary artery disease and aortic valve conditions; WATCHMAN FLX, a left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) device; and implantable devices that monitor the heart and deliver electricity to treat cardiac abnormalities, such as cardioverter and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators, MRI S-ICD systems, cardiac resynchronization therapy pacemakers, quadripolar LV leads, ICD leads, pacing leads, remote patient management systems, insertable cardiac monitor systems, and remote cardiac monitoring systems. In addition, the company offers diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart; peripheral arterial and venous diseases; and products to diagnose, treat, and ease forms of cancer. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BSX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BSX. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BSX's close price rises?", "post_id": 41409, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767691325.90902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767691325.90902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.53 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.47, 0.53 ], "means": [ 0.5244323875869884 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0, 8.0, 10.0, 10.0, 15.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boston Scientific Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BSX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:02) is 94.71. You can find more information about Boston Scientific Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BSX\n\nBoston Scientific Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices for use in various interventional medical specialties worldwide. It operates in two segments, MedSurg and Cardiovascular. The company offers devices to diagnose and treat a range of gastrointestinal conditions, such as resolution clips, biliary stent systems, stents and electrocautery enhanced delivery systems, direct visualization systems, digital catheters, and single-use duodenoscopes, as well as endoluminal surgery and infection prevention portfolios; devices to treat urological conditions, including ureteral stents, catheters, baskets, guidewires, urinary and bowel dysfunction, sheaths, balloons, single-use digital flexible ureteroscopes, holmium laser systems, penile implants, artificial urinary sphincter, laser system, and hydrogel systems; and devices to treat neurological movement disorders and manage chronic pain, such as spinal cord stimulator systems, proprietary programming software, radiofrequency ablation, indirect decompression systems, and intraosseous nerve ablation and deep brain stimulation systems. It also provides technologies for diagnosing and treating coronary artery disease and aortic valve conditions; WATCHMAN FLX, a left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) device; and implantable devices that monitor the heart and deliver electricity to treat cardiac abnormalities, such as cardioverter and cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillators, MRI S-ICD systems, cardiac resynchronization therapy pacemakers, quadripolar LV leads, ICD leads, pacing leads, remote patient management systems, insertable cardiac monitor systems, and remote cardiac monitoring systems. In addition, the company offers diagnosis and treatment of rate and rhythm disorders of the heart; peripheral arterial and venous diseases; and products to diagnose, treat, and ease forms of cancer. The company was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Marlborough, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BSX\"}}`" }, { "id": 41404, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-anthropic-file-an-s-1-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:39.795519Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T04:47:39Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T06:18:00.174015Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:39.997917Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T04:47:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41119, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 65.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:39.795933Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T04:47:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T19:01:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T06:17:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41206\n- Original question title: Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n> \n> > Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n> \n> > For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n> \n> According to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n> \n> > Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41206,\"question_id\":40916,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41206) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 19:01:53 is higher than 65.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 65.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 19:01:53, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41404, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767679231.480282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767679231.480282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5475000000000001, 0.4525 ], "means": [ 0.4813542266248036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 8.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41206\n- Original question title: Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 65.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.\n\nOriginal background: \n> CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n> \n> > Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n> \n> > For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n> \n> According to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n> \n> > Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41206,\"question_id\":40916,\"last_cp\":0.65}}`" }, { "id": 41402, "title": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "COO's close price rises?", "url_title": "COO's close price rises?", "slug": "coos-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:32.830751Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T05:30:00.165951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:33.041910Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41117, "title": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:32.831166Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Cooper Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:11) is 81.11. You can find more information about The Cooper Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO\n\nThe Cooper Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets contact lens wearers. The company operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The CooperVision segment offers spherical, toric, and multifocal contact lenses that address vision challenges, such as astigmatism, presbyopia, and myopia. Its CooperSurgical segment focuses on family and women's health care, which provides fertility products and services, medical devices, and contraception, as well as cryostorage, such as cord blood and cord tissue storage. This segment offers Paragard, a hormone-free intrauterine device; and fertility consumables and equipment, donor gamete services, and genomic services, including genetic testing. The company sells its products to distributors, group purchasing organizations, eye care and health care professionals, including independent practices, corporate retailers, hospitals and clinics, and authorized resellers. The Cooper Companies, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COO\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COO. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is COO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:11) is 81.11. You can find more information about The Cooper Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO\n\nThe Cooper Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets contact lens wearers. The company operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The CooperVision segment offers spherical, toric, and multifocal contact lenses that address vision challenges, such as astigmatism, presbyopia, and myopia. Its CooperSurgical segment focuses on family and women's health care, which provides fertility products and services, medical devices, and contraception, as well as cryostorage, such as cord blood and cord tissue storage. This segment offers Paragard, a hormone-free intrauterine device; and fertility consumables and equipment, donor gamete services, and genomic services, including genetic testing. The company sells its products to distributors, group purchasing organizations, eye care and health care professionals, including independent practices, corporate retailers, hospitals and clinics, and authorized resellers. 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It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:00) is 137.11. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of XYL. 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It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:00) is 137.11. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41399, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-stock-market-go-down-by-5-in-any-week-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:21.977527Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T04:40:00.384747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:22.285189Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T07:52:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41114, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:21.977936Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T07:52:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301\n- Original question title: Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n> \n> If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n> \n> Stock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n> \n> > The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n> \n> > Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n> \n> Weekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n> \n> | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n> | ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n> | 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n> | 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n> | 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n> | 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n> | 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n> | 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n> | 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n> | 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n> | 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n> | 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n> | 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n> | 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n> | 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n> | 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n> | 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n> | 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n> | 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n> | 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n> | 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n> | 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n> | 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n> | 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n> | 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n> | 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n> | 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n> | 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n> | 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n> | 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n> | 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n> | 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n> | 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n> | 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n> | 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n> | 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n> | 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n> | 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n> | 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n> | 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n> | 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n> | 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n> | 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40301,\"question_id\":39848,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 07:52:27 is higher than 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 07:52:27, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41399, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767674004.73585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767674004.73585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2402192104252242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301\n- Original question title: Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n> \n> If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n> \n> Stock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n> \n> > The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n> \n> > Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n> \n> Weekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n> \n> | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n> | ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n> | 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n> | 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n> | 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n> | 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n> | 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n> | 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n> | 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n> | 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n> | 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n> | 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n> | 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n> | 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n> | 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n> | 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n> | 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n> | 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n> | 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n> | 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n> | 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n> | 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n> | 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n> | 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n> | 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n> | 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n> | 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n> | 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n> | 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n> | 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n> | 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n> | 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n> | 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n> | 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n> | 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n> | 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n> | 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n> | 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n> | 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n> | 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n> | 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n> | 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n> | 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40301,\"question_id\":39848,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 41397, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-who-prequalify-moxidectin-by-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.703796Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T03:30:00.221466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.911124Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T09:45:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41112, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.704241Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T09:45:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395\n- Original question title: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n> \n> Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n> \n> According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n> \n> >Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n> \n> As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n> \n> However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n> \n> In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n> \n> However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n> \n> According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n> \n> >Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n> \n> >In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> - Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n> - [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n> - Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28395,\"question_id\":28395,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 09:45:54 is higher than 86.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 86.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 09:45:54, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41397, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767668987.517096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767668987.517096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3591191914577744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395\n- Original question title: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n> \n> Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n> \n> According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n> \n> >Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n> \n> As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n> \n> However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n> \n> In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n> \n> However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n> \n> According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n> \n> >Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n> \n> >In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> - Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n> - [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n> - Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28395,\"question_id\":28395,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`" }, { "id": 41396, "title": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "APH's close price rises?", "url_title": "APH's close price rises?", "slug": "aphs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.104749Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T02:52:00.194282Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.446727Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41111, "title": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.105155Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Amphenol Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is APH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:08) is 139.71. You can find more information about Amphenol Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APH\n\nAmphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company offers connectors and connector systems, including harsh environment data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency interconnect products; busbars and power distribution systems; and power interconnect products. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, other mechanical, and production related products. In addition, the company offers consumer device, network infrastructure, and other antennas; coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and sensors and sensor-based products. Amphenol Corporation sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"APH\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of APH. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "APH's close price rises?", "post_id": 41396, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767667888.541792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767667888.541792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.580961474847644 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 4.0, 5.0, 12.0, 5.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amphenol Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is APH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:08) is 139.71. You can find more information about Amphenol Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APH\n\nAmphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company offers connectors and connector systems, including harsh environment data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency interconnect products; busbars and power distribution systems; and power interconnect products. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, other mechanical, and production related products. In addition, the company offers consumer device, network infrastructure, and other antennas; coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and sensors and sensor-based products. Amphenol Corporation sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"APH\"}}`" }, { "id": 41395, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-scotus-grant-cert-on-a-case-that-would-overturn-obergell", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.563595Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T02:11:00.298278Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.846996Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T03:50:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41110, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.564022Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T03:50:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142\n- Original question title: Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n> \n> A constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n> \n> On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n> \n> In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n> \n> Obergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39142,\"question_id\":38485,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-14 03:50:35 is higher than 6.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 6.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-14 03:50:35, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "post_id": 41395, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767665379.742775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19283333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767665379.742775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19283333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8071666666666667, 0.19283333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.23052136752136754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142\n- Original question title: Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n> \n> A constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n> \n> On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n> \n> In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n> \n> Obergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39142,\"question_id\":38485,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" } ] }