Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
{ "count": 6519, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 41010, "title": "Will ORLY's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-09?", "short_title": "ORLY's close price rises?", "url_title": "ORLY's close price rises?", "slug": "orlys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:01.456158Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T23:34:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T01:05:00.420616Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:26:52.586918Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T09:38:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T23:34:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40715, "title": "Will ORLY's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-09?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:14:01.456570Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T23:34:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T09:38:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T01:04:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ORLY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:07:01) is 98.89. You can find more information about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORLY\n\nO'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also offers auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company provides enhanced services and programs consisting used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Further, it offers do-it-yourself and professional service for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. The company offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brands. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ORLY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ORLY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ORLY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41010, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765242020.224423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.533 ], "centers": [ 0.554 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765242020.224423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.533 ], "centers": [ 0.554 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44599999999999995, 0.554 ], "means": [ 0.5643148484848485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 7.0, 6.0, 16.0, 5.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ORLY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:07:01) is 98.89. You can find more information about O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ORLY\n\nO'Reilly Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a retailer and supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories in the United States, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada. The company provides new and remanufactured automotive hard parts and maintenance items, such as alternators, batteries, brake system components, belts, chassis parts, driveline parts, engine parts, fuel pumps, hoses, starters, temperature control, water pumps, antifreeze, appearance products, engine additives, filters, fluids, lighting products, and oil and wiper blades; and accessories, including floor mats, seat covers, and truck accessories. It also offers auto body paint and related materials, automotive tools, and professional service provider service equipment. In addition, the company provides enhanced services and programs consisting used oil, oil filter, and battery recycling; battery, wiper, and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; and professional paint shop mixing and related materials. Further, it offers do-it-yourself and professional service for domestic and imported automobiles, vans, and trucks. The company offers its products under the BesTest, BrakeBest, Cartek, Import Direct, MasterPro, MicroGard, Murray, Omnispark, O'Reilly Auto Parts, Precision, PowerTorque, SuperStart, Syntec, and Ultima brands. O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. was founded in 1957 and is headquartered in Springfield, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ORLY\"}}`" }, { "id": 41009, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.40% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-leadership-change-us-foreign-adversaries-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:58.728644Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T22:43:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T00:14:00.276908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:28:29.198731Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T21:09:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:43:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40714, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 8.40% on 2025-12-19 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:58.729102Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T22:43:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-19T21:09:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-09T00:13:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 8.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.084}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357). If the community prediction on 2025-12-19 21:09:28 is higher than 8.40%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Leadership change US foreign adversaries in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41009, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765237204.812161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765237204.812161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23532073643410847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31357\n- Original question title: Will there be a leadership change in any of United States' foreign adversaries in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 8.40%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within calendar year 2025, at least one of the following happens:\n> \n> 1. Xi Jinping ceases to be the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China or the Communist Party of China ceases to be in control of China.\n> 2. Miguel Díaz-Canel ceases to be the First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or the Communist Party of Cuba ceases to be in control of Cuba.\n> 3. Ali Hosseini Khamenei ceases to be the supreme leader of Iran.\n> 4. Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea.\n> 5. Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia.\n> 6. Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the 6 happens for at least one full week, even if the previous order is afterwards restored within 2025.\n> * If any of the titles ceases to exist, this question will resolve as **Yes** *only if* the corresponding individual no longer holds the highest office in the country. For example, if the title of President of Russia ceased to exist, this question would *not* resolve as **Yes** if Putin became the Prime Minister.\n> * Regardless of the circumstances, if any of the named individuals continues to legally hold their respective office within their country (for example if they are on a medical leave of absence or have been stripped of day-to-day powers), that individual will not contribute to the question resolving as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Title 15 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Section 791.2 defines United States' foreign adversaries as\n> \n> > any foreign government or foreign non-government person determined by the Secretary to have engaged in a long-term pattern or serious instances of conduct significantly adverse to the national security of the United States or security and safety of United States persons.\n> \n> Being designated a 'foreign adversary' by the United States enables the Secretary of Commerce to review and potentially prohibit information and communications technology transactions deemed to pose undue risks to national security under [Executive Order 13873](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2019/05/17/2019-10538/securing-the-information-and-communications-technology-and-services-supply-chain) and the [National Defense Authorization Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/2670). The designation also typically leads to increased scrutiny under other regulatory frameworks, including export controls and reviews by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States.\n> \n> As of January 3, 2025 the US has designated the following as foreign adversaries ([Title 15, Section 791.4](https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-15/subtitle-B/chapter-VII/subchapter-E/part-791/subpart-A/section-791.4)):\n> \n> > (1) The People's Republic of China, including the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (China);\n> > \n> > (2) Republic of Cuba (Cuba);\n> > \n> > (3) Islamic Republic of Iran (Iran);\n> > \n> > (4) Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea);\n> > \n> > (5) Russian Federation (Russia); and\n> > \n> > (6) Venezuelan politician Nicolás Maduro (Maduro Regime).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31357,\"question_id\":30980,\"last_cp\":0.084}}`" }, { "id": 41008, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-all-star-bannedsuspended-for-betting-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:56.015376Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T21:54:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T23:25:00.151588Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:28:04.443872Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T20:24:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T21:54:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40713, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:56.015769Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T21:54:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-16T20:24:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T23:24:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106). If the community prediction on 2025-12-16 20:24:11 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"All-Star banned/suspended for betting before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41008, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765234271.799421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765234271.799421, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3520170037453182 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31106\n- Original question title: Will at least one All-Star from the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL be banned or suspended for sports betting before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, any player who has ever been selected as an All-Star in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or NHL is banned or suspended by their respective league due to sports betting.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Any suspension due to sports betting for any amount of time or number of games will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * Every player that has been selected for an All-Star or Pro Bowl roster counts, including reserves and pitchers, independently of their participation in the event. For example, if a player was selected and then was replaced due to injury or other commitments, he still counts. Only current players are included, former All-Star players (for example players who are now managers or coaches) do not count.\n> * The ban or suspension has to happen after the player has been selected for the corresponding roster. Players that were suspended before they were selected will not resolve this question as **Yes**.\n> * The main reason for the suspension or the ban has to be sports betting as mentioned in the official organization statement or as confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> Each of the four major professional sports in the US runs its own version of an All-Star game or tournament every year:\n> \n> * In the NFL this is called [Pro Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pro_Bowl). For most of the preceedin years this matched the top players in the American Football Conference (AFC) against those in the National Football Conference (NFC). However, as of December 2024 it features a series of skill competitions, such as passing challenges and precision drills, as well as a flag football game between the NFC and AFC rosters instead of a traditional full-contact game.\n> * In the NBA, [it used to feature](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_All-Star_Game#Rosters_selection) a game between two 12-player squads picked from each of the two conferences. This was also changed in December 2024, with the [new format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_NBA_All-Star_Game) splitting the 24 players into three teams of 8 that will compete in a tournament with the winners of the Rising Stars challenge.\n> * In MLB, [this is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Major_League_Baseball_All-Star_Game) a a traditional matchup between the American League and National League. Starters are chosen through fan voting, while pitchers and reserves are selected by a combination of player votes and selections by the Commissioner's Office. Each MLB team is guaranteed at least one representative.\n> * In NHL, [the format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHL_All-Star_Game#Formats) has changed multiple times, going from a game between two teams each selected from one of the conferences, to a single elimination tournament between four teams, representing the league's four divisions. The NHL decided to not run an All-Star game in 2025 and instead hold a new Four Nations Face-Off tournament as a preview for the league's return to Olympic participation in 2026.\n> \n> In 2018, sports betting was broadly legalized in the US with the overturning of the [Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Professional_and_Amateur_Sports_Protection_Act_of_1992) by the Supreme Court. Since then gambling-related suspensions and bans [have](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/sport/nfl-gambling-suspension-eyioma-uwazurike-spt-intl/index.html) [dramatically](https://frontofficesports.com/nbas-lifetime-ban-highlights-surge-in-gambling-related-incidents/) [increased](https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-announces-sports-betting-violation-suspensions) across sports. However, as of December 2024, this has not included any All-Stars.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the $2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31106,\"question_id\":30837,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 41005, "title": "Will CVX's market close price on 2025-12-18 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "CVX's close price rises?", "url_title": "CVX's close price rises?", "slug": "cvxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:47.659238Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T19:43:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T21:14:00.294814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:27:25.715534Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T21:13:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T21:13:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-18T23:31:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T19:43:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40710, "title": "Will CVX's market close price on 2025-12-18 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:47.659665Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T19:43:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T21:13:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T21:13:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-18T23:31:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T21:13:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T21:13:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chevron Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CVX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:58) is 150.0. You can find more information about Chevron Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX\n\nChevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil through pipelines; processing, transporting, storage, and marketing of natural gas; and carbon capture and storage, as well as a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CVX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CVX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "CVX's close price rises?", "post_id": 41005, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765226724.753531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765226724.753531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5408688696678067 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 9.0, 4.0, 6.0, 17.0, 5.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chevron Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CVX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:58) is 150.0. You can find more information about Chevron Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVX\n\nChevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in the integrated energy and chemicals operations in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment engages in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation, and regasification of liquefied natural gas; transporting crude oil through pipelines; processing, transporting, storage, and marketing of natural gas; and carbon capture and storage, as well as a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment refines crude oil into petroleum products; markets crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufactures and markets renewable fuels; transports crude oil and refined products through pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CVX\"}}`" }, { "id": 41003, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-trump-to-invoke-insurrection-act-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:42.218741Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T16:10:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T17:41:00.149316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:26:59.308987Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:40:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:40:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T12:25:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T16:10:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40708, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2025-12-20 for the Metaculus question \"Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:42.219152Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T16:10:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T17:40:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T17:40:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T12:25:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:40:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:40:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512). If the community prediction on 2025-12-20 12:25:08 is higher than 9.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Trump to invoke Insurrection Act in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41003, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765214856.460598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765214856.460598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2982993181818181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34512\n- Original question title: Will President Trump formally invoke the Insurrection Act before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-06: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that President Trump has formally invoked the Insurrection Act before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The invocation must explicitly invoke the Insurrection Act or make reference to the legal provisions under the Act. A statement by Trump saying he could invoke the Act would not qualify. \n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [<u>The Insurrection Act</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/insurrection-act-explained) grants the president authority to deploy the US armed forces for domestic law enforcement purposes without specifying the conditions under which this authority may be used.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34512,\"question_id\":34027,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 40998, "title": "Will BR's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "BR's close price rises?", "url_title": "BR's close price rises?", "slug": "brs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:28.477202Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T15:36:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T17:07:00.243635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:26:13.053732Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:06:44Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:06:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T12:18:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T15:36:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40703, "title": "Will BR's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:28.477621Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T15:36:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T17:06:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T17:06:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T12:18:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:06:44Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T17:06:44Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:49) is 232.02. You can find more information about Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BR\n\nBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. provides investor communications and technology-driven solutions for the financial services industry in the United States and internationally. The company's Investor Communication Solutions segment handles the proxy materials distribution and voting processes for bank, broker-dealer, corporate issuer, and fund clients; and provides fund manager and a range of other regulatory communication solutions. The segment also offers ProxyEdge, an electronic proxy delivery and voting solution; data-driven solutions and an end-to-end platform for content management, composition, and omni-channel distribution of regulatory, marketing, and transactional information, as well as mutual fund and exchange-traded funds trade processing services; data and analytics solutions; annual SEC filing and capital markets transaction services; registrar, stock transfer, and record-keeping services; and omni-channel customer communications solutions, as well as operates Broadridge Communications Cloud platform that creates, delivers, and manages communications and customer engagement activities. The Global Technology and Operations segment provides solutions that automate the front-to-back transaction lifecycle of equity, mutual fund, fixed income, foreign exchange and exchange-traded derivatives, order capture and execution, trade confirmation, margin, cash management, clearing and settlement, reference data management, reconciliations, securities financing and collateral management, asset servicing, compliance and regulatory reporting, portfolio accounting, and custody-related services. This segment also offers business process outsourcing services; technology solutions, such portfolio management, compliance, fee billing, and operational support solutions; and capital market and wealth and investment management solutions. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Lake Success, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BR's close price rises?", "post_id": 40998, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765212825.307736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48700000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765212825.307736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48700000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5317869019607846 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 5.0, 6.0, 17.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:49) is 232.02. You can find more information about Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BR\n\nBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. provides investor communications and technology-driven solutions for the financial services industry in the United States and internationally. The company's Investor Communication Solutions segment handles the proxy materials distribution and voting processes for bank, broker-dealer, corporate issuer, and fund clients; and provides fund manager and a range of other regulatory communication solutions. The segment also offers ProxyEdge, an electronic proxy delivery and voting solution; data-driven solutions and an end-to-end platform for content management, composition, and omni-channel distribution of regulatory, marketing, and transactional information, as well as mutual fund and exchange-traded funds trade processing services; data and analytics solutions; annual SEC filing and capital markets transaction services; registrar, stock transfer, and record-keeping services; and omni-channel customer communications solutions, as well as operates Broadridge Communications Cloud platform that creates, delivers, and manages communications and customer engagement activities. The Global Technology and Operations segment provides solutions that automate the front-to-back transaction lifecycle of equity, mutual fund, fixed income, foreign exchange and exchange-traded derivatives, order capture and execution, trade confirmation, margin, cash management, clearing and settlement, reference data management, reconciliations, securities financing and collateral management, asset servicing, compliance and regulatory reporting, portfolio accounting, and custody-related services. This segment also offers business process outsourcing services; technology solutions, such portfolio management, compliance, fee billing, and operational support solutions; and capital market and wealth and investment management solutions. The company was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Lake Success, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BR\"}}`" }, { "id": 40997, "title": "Will BLDR's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "BLDR's close price rises?", "url_title": "BLDR's close price rises?", "slug": "bldrs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:25.743552Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T14:48:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T16:19:00.173686Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T05:55:19.520215Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:18:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:18:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T13:44:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:48:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40702, "title": "Will BLDR's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:25.743962Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:48:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T16:18:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T16:18:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T13:44:15Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:18:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T16:18:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Builders FirstSource, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BLDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:59) is 110.01. You can find more information about Builders FirstSource, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR\n\nBuilders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products under the Ready-Frame brand name; windows and doors comprising interior and exterior door units; millwork includes interior trim and custom features, such as intricate mouldings, stair parts, and columns under the Synboard brand name. The company also provides specialty building products and services, including vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboards, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware products; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services; and lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing. In addition, it offers software products, such as drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services, which provide software solutions to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders. It serves its products to production builders and small custom homebuilders, as well as multi-family builders, repair and remodeling contractors, and light commercial contractors. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BLDR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BLDR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is BLDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:59) is 110.01. You can find more information about Builders FirstSource, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLDR\n\nBuilders FirstSource, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and supplies building materials, manufactured components, and construction services to professional homebuilders, sub-contractors, remodelers, and consumers in the United States. It offers manufactured products, such as wood floor and roof trusses, floor trusses, wall panels, stairs, and engineered wood products under the Ready-Frame brand name; windows and doors comprising interior and exterior door units; millwork includes interior trim and custom features, such as intricate mouldings, stair parts, and columns under the Synboard brand name. The company also provides specialty building products and services, including vinyl, composite and wood siding, exterior trims, metal studs, cement, roofing, insulation, wallboards, ceilings, cabinets, and hardware products; turn-key framing, shell construction, design assistance, and professional installation services; and lumber and lumber sheet goods comprising dimensional lumber, plywood, and oriented strand board products that are used in on-site house framing. In addition, it offers software products, such as drafting, estimating, quoting, and virtual home design services, which provide software solutions to retailers, distributors, manufacturers, and homebuilders. It serves its products to production builders and small custom homebuilders, as well as multi-family builders, repair and remodeling contractors, and light commercial contractors. The company was formerly known as BSL Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Builders FirstSource, Inc. in October 1999. Builders FirstSource, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is based in Irving, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BLDR\"}}`" }, { "id": 40995, "title": "Will EQT's market close price on 2025-12-18 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "EQT's close price rises?", "url_title": "EQT's close price rises?", "slug": "eqts-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:20.158592Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T14:17:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T15:48:00.309979Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:26:05.668357Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:47:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:47:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-18T09:29:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:17:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40700, "title": "Will EQT's market close price on 2025-12-18 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:20.159042Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:17:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T15:47:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T15:47:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-18T09:29:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:47:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:47:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "EQT Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EQT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:52) is 60.68. You can find more information about EQT Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQT\n\nEQT Corporation engages in the production, gathering, and transmission of natural gas. The company sells natural gas and natural gas liquids to marketers, utilities, and industrial customers located in the Appalachian Basin. It also provides marketing services and contractual pipeline capacity management services, as well as involved in risk management and hedging activities. The company was formerly known as Equitable Resources Inc. and changed its name to EQT Corporation in February 2009. EQT Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EQT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EQT. 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It's ticker is EQT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:52) is 60.68. You can find more information about EQT Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EQT\n\nEQT Corporation engages in the production, gathering, and transmission of natural gas. The company sells natural gas and natural gas liquids to marketers, utilities, and industrial customers located in the Appalachian Basin. It also provides marketing services and contractual pipeline capacity management services, as well as involved in risk management and hedging activities. The company was formerly known as Equitable Resources Inc. and changed its name to EQT Corporation in February 2009. EQT Corporation was founded in 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EQT\"}}`" }, { "id": 40994, "title": "Will DE's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "short_title": "DE's close price rises?", "url_title": "DE's close price rises?", "slug": "des-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:17.438600Z", "published_at": "2025-12-08T14:11:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T15:42:00.181752Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-08T06:25:59.619416Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:41:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:41:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T11:40:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:11:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32882, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-08T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-09T14:47:08Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-06T00:26:17.110371Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T14:44:40.309143Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40699, "title": "Will DE's market close price on 2025-12-20 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-08?", "created_at": "2025-12-06T16:13:17.438995Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T14:11:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T15:41:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T15:41:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-20T11:40:31Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:41:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-08T15:41:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Deere & Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:51) is 475.11. You can find more information about Deere & Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DE\n\nDeere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides large and mid-size tractors, combines, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery for grain growers, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, forage harvesters, utility tractors, and related loaders and attachments; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles; and other outdoor power products, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. 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The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DE\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DE. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-08, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is DE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-06 16:06:51) is 475.11. You can find more information about Deere & Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DE\n\nDeere & Company engages in the manufacture and distribution of various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides large and mid-size tractors, combines, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters and loaders, soil preparation, tillage, seeding, and crop care equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, soil preparation machinery for grain growers, and related attachments and service parts. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers rotary mowers, hay and forage equipment, forage harvesters, utility tractors, and related loaders and attachments; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn, commercial mowing, and golf course equipment, and utility vehicles; and other outdoor power products, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications. 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The company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DE\"}}`" }, { "id": 40980, "title": "Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]", "short_title": "Puerto Rico industrial sector powered by New Nuclear?", "url_title": "Puerto Rico industrial sector powered by New Nuclear?", "slug": "puerto-rico-industrial-sector-powered-by-new-nuclear", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T18:07:38.509635Z", "published_at": "2025-02-21T03:53:35.713572Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T00:31:08.057596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32881, "type": "tournament", "name": "Super Secret Private Tournament", "slug": "question-links-tournament", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:50:50.483672Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T00:31:19.619892Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32881, "type": "tournament", "name": "Super Secret Private Tournament", "slug": "question-links-tournament", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:50:50.483672Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T00:31:19.619892Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40687, "title": "Will Puerto Rico's industrial sector be powered primarily by New Nuclear before 2040? [QL]", "created_at": "2025-12-05T18:07:38.510004Z", "open_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-21T04:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[*Jesus Nuñez*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesus-nunez-ab730a44) *provided this question for their talk* New Nuclear Energy as the Basis for a Strong and Modern Puerto Rico *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nPuerto Rico's industrial sector faces unique energy challenges as an island territory. As of 2024, the territory relies heavily on imported fossil fuels for industrial power generation. Various proposals have suggested nuclear power, particularly newer designs like SMRs, as a potential solution for industrial energy needs.\n\nIndustrial sector power consumption refers to electricity used by manufacturing, mining, construction, and other industrial activities as defined by standard DOE/EIA categorizations. Metaculus admins may use reasonable discretion in evaluating data from different authoritative sources if methodologies for measuring industrial power consumption differ.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if by December 31, 2040, more than 50% of Puerto Rico's industrial sector energy consumption comes from nuclear power plants. As Puerto Rico has no existing nuclear power plants as of 2024, any nuclear generation would qualify as \"New Nuclear.\"\n\nResolution will be based on data from any of the following sources:\n\n* [National Renewable Energy Laboratory](https://www.nrel.gov/) (NREL) reports\n* [Department of Energy](https://www.energy.gov/) (DOE) statistics\n* [Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/) (EIA) data\n* Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority reports\n* Official Puerto Rico government energy statistics", "fine_print": "If sector-specific consumption data is not available, resolution may be based on either:\n\n* Known industrial sector share of total electricity consumption (using latest available sectoral breakdown) applied to generation data\n* Direct evidence of nuclear power purchase agreements with major industrial consumers\n* Documented physical grid connections between nuclear plants and industrial zones/facilities showing primary supply relationship\n\nIndustrial sector power consumption refers to electricity used by manufacturing, mining, construction, and other industrial activities as defined by standard DOE/EIA categorizations. Metaculus admins may use reasonable discretion in choosing between available resolution methods if multiple conflicting data sources exist.", "short_title": "Puerto Rico industrial sector powered by New Nuclear?", "post_id": 40980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765499457.091249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765499457.091249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Jesus Nuñez*](https://www.linkedin.com/in/jesus-nunez-ab730a44) *provided this question for their talk* New Nuclear Energy as the Basis for a Strong and Modern Puerto Rico *at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\nPuerto Rico's industrial sector faces unique energy challenges as an island territory. As of 2024, the territory relies heavily on imported fossil fuels for industrial power generation. Various proposals have suggested nuclear power, particularly newer designs like SMRs, as a potential solution for industrial energy needs.\n\nIndustrial sector power consumption refers to electricity used by manufacturing, mining, construction, and other industrial activities as defined by standard DOE/EIA categorizations. Metaculus admins may use reasonable discretion in evaluating data from different authoritative sources if methodologies for measuring industrial power consumption differ." }, { "id": 40975, "title": "Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]", "short_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "url_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "slug": "battery-recycling-market-up-to-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T17:52:14.693228Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T00:31:11.917797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32881, "type": "tournament", "name": "Super Secret Private Tournament", "slug": "question-links-tournament", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:50:50.483672Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T00:31:19.619892Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32881, "type": "tournament", "name": "Super Secret Private Tournament", "slug": "question-links-tournament", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:50:50.483672Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T00:31:19.619892Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40682, "title": "Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]", "created_at": "2025-12-05T17:52:14.693656Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T06:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T06:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lithium-ion battery recycling is important for a green transition as it helps to conserve resources and reduce the environmental impact of battery production. With the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, there is a growing need for lithium-ion batteries. However, the supply of lithium and other materials used in these batteries is limited, and mining these materials can have negative environmental consequences. By recycling used batteries, it is possible to recover valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt, reducing the need for mining and conserving resources.\n\nIn recent years, there has been a significant upswing in companies offering such recycling services. For example, [Redwood Materials](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/), cofounded by a previous CTO at Tesla, founded in 2017, currently provides materials for batteries for about [60,000 new electric vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials,_Inc.) per year, and aims to “produce enough anode and cathode for one million electric vehicles annually” by 2025. Importantly, the company is [not yet profitable](https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/), which presumably also applies to many of its competitors.\n\nThere are a variety of already existing forecasts on the trajectory of this market. According [Fortune Business Insights report](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2529169/0/en/Lithium-ion-Battery-Recycling-Market-Size-Worth-USD-6-55-Billion-Globally-by-2028-at-18-5-CAGR.html#:~:text=06%2C%202022%20\\(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE\\),forecast%20period%20from%202021%2D2028.), the market size is projected to be at around \\$6.55 billion by 2028, while [other estimates](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-153488928.html#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20size%20of,the%20forecast%20period%202021%2D2026.) put the total lithium-ion battery recycling market cap at \\$22.8 billion by 2030 or even \\$38.21 billion by 2030 according to [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-A11683).\n\nAnticipating the size of this market is important to estimate the future impact that recycling can have on the decarbonisation of the world economy, as lithium-ion batteries are considered a key component in this transition and a thriving recycling business may mean reduced strain on supply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any reputable firm (including but not limited to the three cited above) estimates the lithium-ion battery recycling market to be $20 billion or more for any year up to (and including) 2030. It resolves as **No** otherwise. Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on January 1, 2032.", "fine_print": "* If one credible source results in a resolution of **Yes** later estimates or revisions by that source or other sources will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\n* The dollar amount for question resolution is not inflation adjusted at any point.", "short_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "post_id": 40975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765499461.245807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765499461.245807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.9 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium-ion battery recycling is important for a green transition as it helps to conserve resources and reduce the environmental impact of battery production. With the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, there is a growing need for lithium-ion batteries. However, the supply of lithium and other materials used in these batteries is limited, and mining these materials can have negative environmental consequences. By recycling used batteries, it is possible to recover valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt, reducing the need for mining and conserving resources.\n\nIn recent years, there has been a significant upswing in companies offering such recycling services. For example, [Redwood Materials](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/), cofounded by a previous CTO at Tesla, founded in 2017, currently provides materials for batteries for about [60,000 new electric vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials,_Inc.) per year, and aims to “produce enough anode and cathode for one million electric vehicles annually” by 2025. Importantly, the company is [not yet profitable](https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/), which presumably also applies to many of its competitors.\n\nThere are a variety of already existing forecasts on the trajectory of this market. According [Fortune Business Insights report](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2529169/0/en/Lithium-ion-Battery-Recycling-Market-Size-Worth-USD-6-55-Billion-Globally-by-2028-at-18-5-CAGR.html#:~:text=06%2C%202022%20\\(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE\\),forecast%20period%20from%202021%2D2028.), the market size is projected to be at around \\$6.55 billion by 2028, while [other estimates](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-153488928.html#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20size%20of,the%20forecast%20period%202021%2D2026.) put the total lithium-ion battery recycling market cap at \\$22.8 billion by 2030 or even \\$38.21 billion by 2030 according to [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-A11683).\n\nAnticipating the size of this market is important to estimate the future impact that recycling can have on the decarbonisation of the world economy, as lithium-ion batteries are considered a key component in this transition and a thriving recycling business may mean reduced strain on supply." }, { "id": 40962, "title": "Will TrumpRx website be functional before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "TrumpRx website functional before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "TrumpRx website functional before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "trumprx-website-functional-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T20:19:19.200233Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T04:49:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T05:36:41.610220Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-05T04:50:17.680410Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-06T04:49:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40670, "title": "Will TrumpRx website be functional before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T20:19:19.200593Z", "open_time": "2025-12-06T04:49:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-10T04:49:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-10T04:49:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> For many years, Americans have paid the highest prices anywhere in the world for prescription drugs — much more than other countries for the exact same product. - US President Donald J. Trump\n\nDuring his first term, [President Trump campaigned on promises to reduce drug prices](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6407585/).\n\nIn his second term, on May 12, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order entitled [*Delivering Most-Favored-Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients*](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/) directing the administration to take a number of actions to bring American drug prices in line with those paid by similar developed nations, known as “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) prices.\n\nOn July 31, the US President sent letters to leading pharmaceutical manufacturers outlining the steps they must take. Then on September 30, the US President announced [the first agreement](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-first-deal-to-bring-most-favored-nation-pricing-to-american-patients/) to do so with a major pharmaceutical company, Pfizer. As reported by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trumprx-website-launch-early-2026-senior-administration-official-says-2025-09-30/), \"the administration hopes that TrumpRx.gov, a website offering reduced prices for prescription drugs, will go live early in 2026.\"\n\n[Some experts are sceptical](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/3/what-is-trumps-new-trumprx-website-and-will-it-bring-medicine-prices-down) though about the wide-reaching impacts of the approach. \n\nAccording to [the TrumpRx website](https://trumprx.gov/),\n\n> TrumpRx doesn't sell medications. Instead, it connects patients directly with the best prices, increasing transparency and cutting out costly third-party markups.\n\nThe government website also states \"Coming Soon\" and \"January 2026\". So will the TrumpRx website be live for its first user to use its intended functionality before the end of January 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [TrumpRx.gov](https://trumprx.gov/) becomes publicly accessible and operational with at least some functionality of its intended portal role before February 1, 2026. \n\nTo qualify as operational, the site must allow users to search for or view medications and be redirected to purchase them.", "fine_print": "Once the qualifying functionality on the website goes live, this question will immediately resolve as Yes, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access. \n\nGlitches or minor technical issues will not render the site non-functional, provided the core portal functionality remains available to the public.", "short_title": "TrumpRx website functional before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765517790.851458, "end_time": 1765752641.668, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765517790.851458, "end_time": 1765752641.668, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.22894102692043014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3960520319014228, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5520276189696817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.596589295778137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.664386121578093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> For many years, Americans have paid the highest prices anywhere in the world for prescription drugs — much more than other countries for the exact same product. - US President Donald J. Trump\n\nDuring his first term, [President Trump campaigned on promises to reduce drug prices](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6407585/).\n\nIn his second term, on May 12, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order entitled [*Delivering Most-Favored-Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients*](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/) directing the administration to take a number of actions to bring American drug prices in line with those paid by similar developed nations, known as “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) prices.\n\nOn July 31, the US President sent letters to leading pharmaceutical manufacturers outlining the steps they must take. Then on September 30, the US President announced [the first agreement](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-first-deal-to-bring-most-favored-nation-pricing-to-american-patients/) to do so with a major pharmaceutical company, Pfizer. As reported by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trumprx-website-launch-early-2026-senior-administration-official-says-2025-09-30/), \"the administration hopes that TrumpRx.gov, a website offering reduced prices for prescription drugs, will go live early in 2026.\"\n\n[Some experts are sceptical](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/3/what-is-trumps-new-trumprx-website-and-will-it-bring-medicine-prices-down) though about the wide-reaching impacts of the approach. \n\nAccording to [the TrumpRx website](https://trumprx.gov/),\n\n> TrumpRx doesn't sell medications. Instead, it connects patients directly with the best prices, increasing transparency and cutting out costly third-party markups.\n\nThe government website also states \"Coming Soon\" and \"January 2026\". So will the TrumpRx website be live for its first user to use its intended functionality before the end of January 2026?" }, { "id": 40961, "title": "Will EVs make up the majority of new vehicle sales globally by 2030?", "short_title": "EVs majority of new sales by 2030?", "url_title": "EVs majority of new sales by 2030?", "slug": "evs-majority-of-new-sales-by-2030", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:38:28.368560Z", "published_at": "2025-12-07T20:53:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:07:07.695176Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-07T20:56:00.204136Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T20:53:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:07:07.960480Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:07:07.960480Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40669, "title": "Will EVs make up the majority of new vehicle sales globally by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:38:28.369001Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T20:53:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-12T20:53:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-12T20:53:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will EVs exceed 50% of global sales by 2030?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-EVs-be-majority-globally-by)\n\nThe global electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly, but whether EVs will reach a *majority* of new vehicle sales by 2030 remains unclear. According to the [<u>International Energy Agency (IEA)</u>](https://www.iea.org/), under current policies (which IEA calls its “[<u>Stated Policies Scenario</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/stated-policies-scenario-steps)” or STEPS), [<u>EVs' share of global sales could exceed 40% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/news/more-than-1-in-4-cars-sold-worldwide-this-year-is-set-to-be-electric-as-ev-sales-continue-to-grow). In the more aspirational policy-pledges scenario (APS), [<u>IEA projects EVs' sales share could reach around 45% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-mobility?).\n\nIndependent analyses, however, suggest a faster adoption curve. A report from RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) projects that EVs could claim between [<u>62% and 86% of global new-vehicle sales by 2030</u>](https://rmi.org/press-release/evs-to-surpass-two-thirds-of-global-car-sales-by-2030-putting-at-risk-nearly-half-of-oil-demand-new-research-finds/), driven primarily by falling battery costs and strong policy incentives. On the other hand, more conservative forecasts from consulting firms like Deloitte estimate EVs will account for only about [<u>32% of global new-car sales by 2030</u>](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/future-of-mobility/electric-vehicle-trends-2030.html?).\n\nOn the infrastructure side, [<u>battery cost declines and increasing investment in EV charging networks support optimistic adoption scenarios</u>](https://www.batterytechonline.com/charging/charging-infrastructure-struggles-to-keep-up-with-ev-boom). At the same time, some automakers are scaling back or delaying their EV production plans, which could slow growth. For example, [<u>Toyota recently cut its EV production target for 2026</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-cut-2026-global-ev-production-by-around-third-1-mln-nikkei-reports-2024-09-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These tensions — between strong policy and cost tailwinds on one side, and industry risk and geopolitical supply-chain constraints on the other — make the 2030 outcome uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year before 2031, EVs account for a majority (over 50%) of global new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales.\n\nThe principal resolution source for this question will be the IEA's [Global EV Outlook reports](https://www.iea.org/analysis?type=report\\&energySystem%5B0%5D=electric-vehicles\\§or%5B0%5D=transport). If the IEA ceases to publish such reports, this question may resolve according to another reliable public source, such as automaker or industry-market-research publications (e.g., RMI, BloombergNEF) or credible media outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Financial Times) reporting data or forecasts.", "fine_print": "EVs include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).", "short_title": "EVs majority of new sales by 2030?", "post_id": 40961, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will EVs exceed 50% of global sales by 2030?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-EVs-be-majority-globally-by)\n\nThe global electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly, but whether EVs will reach a *majority* of new vehicle sales by 2030 remains unclear. According to the [<u>International Energy Agency (IEA)</u>](https://www.iea.org/), under current policies (which IEA calls its “[<u>Stated Policies Scenario</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/stated-policies-scenario-steps)” or STEPS), [<u>EVs' share of global sales could exceed 40% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/news/more-than-1-in-4-cars-sold-worldwide-this-year-is-set-to-be-electric-as-ev-sales-continue-to-grow). In the more aspirational policy-pledges scenario (APS), [<u>IEA projects EVs' sales share could reach around 45% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-mobility?).\n\nIndependent analyses, however, suggest a faster adoption curve. A report from RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) projects that EVs could claim between [<u>62% and 86% of global new-vehicle sales by 2030</u>](https://rmi.org/press-release/evs-to-surpass-two-thirds-of-global-car-sales-by-2030-putting-at-risk-nearly-half-of-oil-demand-new-research-finds/), driven primarily by falling battery costs and strong policy incentives. On the other hand, more conservative forecasts from consulting firms like Deloitte estimate EVs will account for only about [<u>32% of global new-car sales by 2030</u>](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/future-of-mobility/electric-vehicle-trends-2030.html?).\n\nOn the infrastructure side, [<u>battery cost declines and increasing investment in EV charging networks support optimistic adoption scenarios</u>](https://www.batterytechonline.com/charging/charging-infrastructure-struggles-to-keep-up-with-ev-boom). At the same time, some automakers are scaling back or delaying their EV production plans, which could slow growth. For example, [<u>Toyota recently cut its EV production target for 2026</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-cut-2026-global-ev-production-by-around-third-1-mln-nikkei-reports-2024-09-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These tensions — between strong policy and cost tailwinds on one side, and industry risk and geopolitical supply-chain constraints on the other — make the 2030 outcome uncertain." }, { "id": 40960, "title": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?", "short_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "url_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "slug": "trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-before-jan-21-2029", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:36:08.004706Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T01:50:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-11T08:35:04.787188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-05T01:51:27.984866Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-06T01:50:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:07:07.960480Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:07:07.960480Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40668, "title": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:36:08.005130Z", "open_time": "2025-12-06T01:50:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-10T01:50:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-10T01:50:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-pardon-Ghislaine-Maxwell)\n\n[<u>Ghislaine Maxwell</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell?), a close associate of Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted in 2021 on multiple charges related to sex trafficking of underage girls. She was [<u>sentenced to 20 years in federal prison</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/us/ghislaine-maxwell-sentencing). Her legal team is still appealing, including [<u>arguing that a prior non-prosecution deal involving Epstein should have shielded her</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nIn 2025, [<u>Maxwell was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/25/justice-blanche-florida-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-trump/) for two days, addressing questions about many individuals connected to Epstein’s network. Around the same time, Trump [<u>publicly acknowledged he has the power to pardon her</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-doubles-down-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-comment-2105157?), saying “I’m allowed to do it,” but also that he hasn’t “thought about” it. Maxwell’s attorney has expressed hope for clemency, [<u>arguing that she was wronged by the government’s earlier handling of Epstein’s cases</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nThere is [<u>political controversy around the issue:</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-victims-b2798310.html?) some of Epstein’s victims and their families strongly oppose a pardon or commutation, and members of Congress have publicly demanded that clemency not be granted. Meanwhile, Maxwell’s lawyer has [<u>indicated she would be more willing to testify before Congress</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/29/ghislaine-maxwells-lawyer-tells-congress-shell-only-testify-after-appeal-is-over-or-if-trump-pardons-her/?) — but only after her appeal or in exchange for clemency.\n\nBecause presidential pardons are constitutionally permitted for federal convictions, [<u>Trump legally can pardon Maxwell</u>](https://time.com/7305903/donald-trump-ghislane-maxwell-pardon/?). However, whether he will is uncertain: his public statements have been noncommittal, legal and political risks are high, and any pardon could provoke strong backlash.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, there is credible confirmation that Donald Trump has granted a presidential pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell or commuted her sentence such that she is immediately entitled to be released from prison.", "fine_print": "1. The action must be a formal clemency grant (pardon or commutation) issued by Trump, documented in official records (e.g., White House, DOJ) or confirmed by credible media outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, NYT, WaPo).\n2. The clemency must specifically reference Maxwell by name.", "short_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "post_id": 40960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765442094.332112, "end_time": 1772804116.157, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765442094.332112, "end_time": 1772804116.157, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3102528092608057 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 1.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8224460687004976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-pardon-Ghislaine-Maxwell)\n\n[<u>Ghislaine Maxwell</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell?), a close associate of Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted in 2021 on multiple charges related to sex trafficking of underage girls. She was [<u>sentenced to 20 years in federal prison</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/us/ghislaine-maxwell-sentencing). Her legal team is still appealing, including [<u>arguing that a prior non-prosecution deal involving Epstein should have shielded her</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nIn 2025, [<u>Maxwell was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/25/justice-blanche-florida-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-trump/) for two days, addressing questions about many individuals connected to Epstein’s network. Around the same time, Trump [<u>publicly acknowledged he has the power to pardon her</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-doubles-down-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-comment-2105157?), saying “I’m allowed to do it,” but also that he hasn’t “thought about” it. Maxwell’s attorney has expressed hope for clemency, [<u>arguing that she was wronged by the government’s earlier handling of Epstein’s cases</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nThere is [<u>political controversy around the issue:</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-victims-b2798310.html?) some of Epstein’s victims and their families strongly oppose a pardon or commutation, and members of Congress have publicly demanded that clemency not be granted. Meanwhile, Maxwell’s lawyer has [<u>indicated she would be more willing to testify before Congress</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/29/ghislaine-maxwells-lawyer-tells-congress-shell-only-testify-after-appeal-is-over-or-if-trump-pardons-her/?) — but only after her appeal or in exchange for clemency.\n\nBecause presidential pardons are constitutionally permitted for federal convictions, [<u>Trump legally can pardon Maxwell</u>](https://time.com/7305903/donald-trump-ghislane-maxwell-pardon/?). However, whether he will is uncertain: his public statements have been noncommittal, legal and political risks are high, and any pardon could provoke strong backlash." }, { "id": 40950, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-in-dec-2025jan-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T10:03:51.921176Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:17:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T14:45:24.269175Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T10:05:15.998806Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T10:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T13:12:32.792379Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T13:12:32.792379Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40643, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T10:03:51.921537Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T10:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "post_id": 40950, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765550723.37986, "end_time": 1765672952.078, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765550723.37986, "end_time": 1765672952.078, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5551639841146543 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12769988699998347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05527593282270715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5301443636926202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03822254027791887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15363062476929543, 0.027211913054756474, 1.0153547828268672, 0.0, 0.28276866264047956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12222548515775097, 0.034166571748472256, 0.0, 0.00805738445541778, 0.0, 0.2693534923235574, 0.0, 0.20274572289943904, 0.14309136881469264, 0.9454658663642979, 0.22807161440590423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.062047323239435744, 0.21695324208907182, 0.893587478567622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.809358930364147, 0.3558723743910411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06725432760272325, 0.5936497371135374, 0.7178833128279589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7525393965080218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030825618759363423, 0.037350175802999215, 0.5169145975192415, 0.6234416539895116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4681721830972806, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7103861078004025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5612035277678419, 0.8099355764284718, 0.0, 0.6319212255249617, 0.6743089337168109, 0.0, 0.16482953151796573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058406525163320185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005367069401959898, 0.0, 0.08183581722008189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39805259428956524 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 243, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela." }, { "id": 40948, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "url_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "slug": "sixth-icj-case-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.779445Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T17:00:00.308445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.914962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:57:12.287687Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:57:12.287687Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40641, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.779896Z", "open_time": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40882,\"question_id\":40551}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a contentious case is introduced at the International Court of Justice in December 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc).", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "post_id": 40948, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764952863.948601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764952863.948601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22594853597938416 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40882,\"question_id\":40551}}`" }, { "id": 40947, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "url_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "slug": "germany-enact-aktivrente-pre-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.547383Z", "published_at": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T17:00:00.322635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.681938Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:57:12.287687Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:57:12.287687Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40640, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.547881Z", "open_time": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40924,\"question_id\":40612}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Germany enacts an extra tax-free allowance on employment income for people above statutory retirement age before January 3, 2026.", "fine_print": "This question will not wait for the law to enter into legal force, if the bill is officially enacted this question will immediately resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question will still resolve **Yes** if certain categories of income (such as self-employment) are excluded, as in the existing proposal.", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "post_id": 40947, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764866645.296416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6966059082965339 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764866645.296416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6966059082965339 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7426199361080472 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40924,\"question_id\":40612}}`" }, { "id": 40942, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "short_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "url_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "slug": "who-announce-non-h5n1-pandemic-in-2030", "author_id": 280307, "author_username": "Dudleyd444", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T12:41:16.038052Z", "published_at": "2025-12-10T16:01:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T10:09:43.691365Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-10T16:02:03.191904Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T16:01:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40629, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T12:41:16.038418Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T16:01:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-15T16:01:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-15T16:01:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the World Health Organization announces that any disease except the H5N1 flu strain is a pandemic.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "post_id": 40942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks." }, { "id": 40939, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-announce-a-new-capital-before-jan-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.193324Z", "published_at": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-03T17:00:00.367035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.358282Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:57:12.287687Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-12T12:57:12.287687Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40626, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.193859Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40854,\"question_id\":40512}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2026, Iran officially announces that it plans to move its capital to a specific location.", "fine_print": "* The announcement has to include a the new location of the capital, at list at the level of a specific county. Announcements that mention moving the capital, but not a specific new location will not suffice to resolve this question.\n* The announcement alone will be sufficient for resolution, regardless of any subsequent implementation details, such as when the capital is planned to be moved, whether government institutions actually relocate, how many people move, or any other practical steps.", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "post_id": 40939, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764780220.797664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764780220.797664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2050689977041926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40854,\"question_id\":40512}}`" }, { "id": 40938, "title": "Will California Emissions Reporting Laws SB 253 and SB 261 Be In Effect on September 1, 2026?", "short_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "url_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "slug": "ca-emissions-reporting-sb253-and-261-in-effect-on-9126", "author_id": 100015, "author_username": "rchesnut7", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T02:06:22.557329Z", "published_at": "2025-12-10T15:57:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-11T18:27:26.063516Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-10T15:57:59.836909Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T15:57:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40625, "title": "Will California Emissions Reporting Laws SB 253 and SB 261 Be In Effect on September 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T02:06:22.557853Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T15:57:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-15T15:57:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-15T15:57:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California has passed a pair of laws, known as SB 253 and SB 261, requiring companies that do business in the state to file public reports on their emissions. There have been 2 legal challenges to these laws filed in California federal courts, one by the Chamber of Commerce and the other by Exxon. In the Chamber of Commerce case, the judge denied the plaintiff's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that the Chamber was not likely to succeed on the merits. The Chamber appealed, and the 9th Circuit set an expedited hearing date of January 9, 2026 to consider the case. \n\nSB 261 originally required companies to file reports by January 1, 2026, but the 9th Circuit stayed the law pending the outcome of the appeal. SB 253 is a related emissions law scheduled to go into effort in August, 2026, and while the 9th Circuit declined to enjoin this law pending the appeal, the appeal is expected to resolve challenges to both laws. If the 9th Circuit rules against the Chamber, it is widely expected that the Chamber would appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and ask that Court for a stay pending the appeal.\n\nThe answer to this question has important implications for supporters and opponents of sustainability and green regulation.  ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if both the Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act (SB 253) and the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act (SB 261) are in effect on September 1, 2026 (UTC +7:00).", "fine_print": "If either law is rewritten or changed, and that new law is in effect, that will not qualify for this question.", "short_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "post_id": 40938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California has passed a pair of laws, known as SB 253 and SB 261, requiring companies that do business in the state to file public reports on their emissions. There have been 2 legal challenges to these laws filed in California federal courts, one by the Chamber of Commerce and the other by Exxon. In the Chamber of Commerce case, the judge denied the plaintiff's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that the Chamber was not likely to succeed on the merits. The Chamber appealed, and the 9th Circuit set an expedited hearing date of January 9, 2026 to consider the case. \n\nSB 261 originally required companies to file reports by January 1, 2026, but the 9th Circuit stayed the law pending the outcome of the appeal. SB 253 is a related emissions law scheduled to go into effort in August, 2026, and while the 9th Circuit declined to enjoin this law pending the appeal, the appeal is expected to resolve challenges to both laws. If the 9th Circuit rules against the Chamber, it is widely expected that the Chamber would appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and ask that Court for a stay pending the appeal.\n\nThe answer to this question has important implications for supporters and opponents of sustainability and green regulation.  " } ] }
