Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20", "results": [ { "id": 35925, "title": "Will Github rank in the top 50 global websites according to Ahrefs on April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-github-rank-in-the-top-50-global-websites-according-to-ahrefs-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.677953Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.516606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35359, "title": "Will Github rank in the top 50 global websites according to Ahrefs on April 1, 2025?", "description": "According to the resolution source, ranking is determined as follows: \"The top 1000 most visited websites in the World by Ahrefs organic search traffic estimates. Updated monthly.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.677953Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Github has a rank of ≤50 at [Ahrefs](https://ahrefs.com/websites) (in the top 50, in other words) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. Ensure ranking display is set to Worldwide and All Categories.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to what rank is displayed at the resolution date, regardless of when the traffic stats are from.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35925, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741831305.985795, "end_time": 1741831319.81313, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831319.81313, "end_time": 1741831560.863902, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.375 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831560.863902, "end_time": 1741831874.624145, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3159004096686876 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831874.624145, "end_time": 1741832172.548387, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3092447303007795 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832172.548387, "end_time": 1741832172.872865, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4023172127175226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832172.872865, "end_time": 1741832173.185349, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4023172127175226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832173.185349, "end_time": 1741832173.511415, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2742748456601352 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832173.511415, "end_time": 1741832173.829969, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.41832250859969594 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832173.829969, "end_time": 1741832174.156568, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.37030662095317574 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832174.156568, "end_time": 1741832190.995253, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4023172127175226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832190.995253, "end_time": 1741832191.216938, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.35908933657850206 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.216938, "end_time": 1741832191.363751, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.35908933657850206 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.363751, "end_time": 1741832191.435055, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3054171607681753 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.435055, "end_time": 1741832191.608155, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.608155, "end_time": 1741832191.673566, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3099915352720382 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.673566, "end_time": 1741832191.843925, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3054171607681753 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.843925, "end_time": 1741832191.885832, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.885832, "end_time": 1741832192.093096, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832192.093096, "end_time": 1741832192.124316, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832192.124316, "end_time": 1741832192.316041, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832192.316041, "end_time": 1741832192.55528, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832192.55528, "end_time": 1741832200.877906, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2843220407446711 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832200.877906, "end_time": 1741832201.080282, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "means": [ 0.27623722232935577 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832201.080282, "end_time": 1741832201.274587, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2997929848653309 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832201.274587, "end_time": 1741832201.516958, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "means": [ 0.27623722232935577 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832201.516958, "end_time": 1741832201.708323, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2997929848653309 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832201.708323, "end_time": 1741832201.904411, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.38223815374124404 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832201.904411, "end_time": 1741832204.893695, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.298 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2997929848653309 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832204.893695, "end_time": 1741832205.11441, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2561313152718175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832205.11441, "end_time": 1741832205.324347, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2561313152718175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832205.324347, "end_time": 1741832205.552145, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2561313152718175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832205.552145, "end_time": 1741832205.750689, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2561313152718175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832205.750689, "end_time": 1741832205.95114, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.27798477004799155 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832205.95114, "end_time": 1741832276.908496, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2561313152718175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832276.908496, "end_time": 1741832277.131885, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2855494040570362 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832277.131885, "end_time": 1741832277.345313, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25487759159055023 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832277.345313, "end_time": 1741832277.578416, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.23442971661289289 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832277.578416, "end_time": 1741832277.885434, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.23442971661289289 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832277.885434, "end_time": 1741832278.095781, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.24465365410172155 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832278.095781, "end_time": 1741832284.730762, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.24465365410172155 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832284.730762, "end_time": 1741832284.950595, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25531559493420225 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832284.950595, "end_time": 1741832285.170956, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2745796324409897 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832285.170956, "end_time": 1741832285.38025, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25531559493420225 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832285.38025, "end_time": 1741832285.595384, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.298 ], "means": [ 0.24568357618080855 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832285.595384, "end_time": 1741832285.844556, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25531559493420225 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832285.844556, "end_time": 1741832319.542113, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25531559493420225 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832319.542113, "end_time": 1741832340.351312, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.24522010779953013 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832340.351312, "end_time": 1741832404.28906, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.20435860988496396 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832404.28906, "end_time": 1741832450.683114, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2741861445505607 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832450.683114, "end_time": 1741832513.403965, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.34243989445638345 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832513.403965, "end_time": 1741832556.451714, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.3512502379261106 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832556.451714, "end_time": 1741832556.759073, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.41747172043762937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832556.759073, "end_time": 1741832557.061104, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.41747172043762937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832557.061104, "end_time": 1741832557.438618, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.41747172043762937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832557.438618, "end_time": 1741832557.760603, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.41747172043762937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832557.760603, "end_time": 1741832558.055168, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.41747172043762937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832558.055168, "end_time": 1741832667.86529, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.41747172043762937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832667.86529, "end_time": 1741832795.682561, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.4333747752032267 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832795.682561, "end_time": 1741832795.864528, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.4218641671106752 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832795.864528, "end_time": 1741832796.271175, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4524133378333813 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832796.271175, "end_time": 1741832796.447192, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.48828479067439357 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832796.447192, "end_time": 1741832796.849672, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4748940092544812 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832796.849672, "end_time": 1741832797.10743, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4361552954676523 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832797.10743, "end_time": 1741832797.479081, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.4925856820931184 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832797.479081, "end_time": 1741832797.756468, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.703 ], "means": [ 0.5147826965214672 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832797.756468, "end_time": 1741832798.048734, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4799147850114907 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832798.048734, "end_time": 1741832798.33247, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4414170557047002 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832798.33247, "end_time": 1741832798.663948, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3928716366802297 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832798.663948, "end_time": 1741832799.008803, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.40028384262664 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832799.008803, "end_time": 1741833023.301961, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4524133378333813 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833023.301961, "end_time": 1741833166.991182, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.529 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4716128751877799 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833166.991182, "end_time": 1741833199.721552, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.47520565526134534 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833199.721552, "end_time": 1741833847.12902, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.529 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5090863370628835 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833847.12902, "end_time": 1741833993.974394, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49596830293527777 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833993.974394, "end_time": 1741834112.100917, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.48470009284335175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834112.100917, "end_time": 1741834127.901149, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.4749798856409741 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834127.901149, "end_time": 1741834210.589459, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48480563023230633 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834210.589459, "end_time": 1741834733.520759, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.529 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4904697873247877 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834733.520759, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5363333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.513039282366453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1365585819355109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2547471642053736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.15228046368245562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43589991024459757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.296742350588431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5035187872155226, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204285967221349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834733.520759, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46366666666666667, 0.5363333333333333 ], "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5363333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.513039282366453 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1365585819355109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2547471642053736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.15228046368245562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43589991024459757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.296742350588431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5035187872155226, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204285967221349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, ranking is determined as follows: \"The top 1000 most visited websites in the World by Ahrefs organic search traffic estimates. Updated monthly.\"" }, { "id": 35924, "title": "Will ChatGPT rank in the top 10 global websites according to Semrush on April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chatgpt-rank-in-the-top-10-global-websites-according-to-semrush-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.645297Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.460300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35358, "title": "Will ChatGPT rank in the top 10 global websites according to Semrush on April 1, 2025?", "description": "According to the resolution source, \" In January chatgpt.com received 4.67B visits with the average session duration 08:24. Compared to December traffic to chatgpt.com has decreased by -2.41%.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.645297Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if ChatGPT has a Global Rank: Worldwide of ≤10 at [Semrush](https://www.semrush.com/website/chatgpt.com/overview/) (in the top 10, in other words) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to what rank is displayed at the resolution date, regardless of when the traffic stats are from.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35924, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741831287.827111, "end_time": 1741831300.057548, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.85 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831300.057548, "end_time": 1741831526.439308, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.875 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831526.439308, "end_time": 1741831875.291364, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9117510688420375 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831875.291364, "end_time": 1741832163.28528, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8493783439434824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832163.28528, "end_time": 1741832163.634011, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.865582635608086 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832163.634011, "end_time": 1741832163.982756, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.865582635608086 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832163.982756, "end_time": 1741832164.361436, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.865582635608086 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832164.361436, "end_time": 1741832164.703826, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8495773397259127 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832164.703826, "end_time": 1741832165.02863, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8495773397259127 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832165.02863, "end_time": 1741832178.131874, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.865582635608086 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.131874, "end_time": 1741832178.402785, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8043999281285796 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.402785, "end_time": 1741832178.63655, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8611602579268778 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.63655, "end_time": 1741832178.84058, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.733449515880707 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.84058, "end_time": 1741832178.855922, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7762021832870122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.855922, "end_time": 1741832179.071034, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7533303107676979 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.071034, "end_time": 1741832179.086719, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7762021832870122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.086719, "end_time": 1741832179.301905, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8816777834045333 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.301905, "end_time": 1741832179.307525, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8945125306682169 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.307525, "end_time": 1741832179.546306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8280516070978677 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.546306, "end_time": 1741832179.770739, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8289399833457728 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.770739, "end_time": 1741832179.97563, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8289399833457728 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.97563, "end_time": 1741832189.885571, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.744 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8289399833457728 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832189.885571, "end_time": 1741832190.118222, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6807883743750409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832190.118222, "end_time": 1741832190.345455, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7043441369110159 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832190.345455, "end_time": 1741832190.576964, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6572326118390657 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832190.576964, "end_time": 1741832190.78778, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6807883743750409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832190.78778, "end_time": 1741832191.026192, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6807883743750409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832191.026192, "end_time": 1741832213.314411, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6807883743750409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.314411, "end_time": 1741832213.507249, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5429393222476275 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.507249, "end_time": 1741832213.693061, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5538660496357146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.693061, "end_time": 1741832213.870439, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5429393222476275 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.870439, "end_time": 1741832214.091808, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5538660496357146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832214.091808, "end_time": 1741832214.303523, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5538660496357146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832214.303523, "end_time": 1741832253.35937, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5538660496357146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832253.35937, "end_time": 1741832253.587199, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.62464308706143 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832253.587199, "end_time": 1741832253.800345, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.6348670245502588 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832253.800345, "end_time": 1741832254.038383, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.6348670245502588 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832254.038383, "end_time": 1741832254.277709, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.62464308706143 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832254.277709, "end_time": 1741832254.55912, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.6348670245502588 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832254.55912, "end_time": 1741832258.540398, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.6348670245502588 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832258.540398, "end_time": 1741832258.787587, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6763103216303649 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832258.787587, "end_time": 1741832259.014495, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6763103216303649 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832259.014495, "end_time": 1741832259.22978, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.666678302876971 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832259.22978, "end_time": 1741832259.498333, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6859423403837586 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832259.498333, "end_time": 1741832259.721913, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6763103216303649 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832259.721913, "end_time": 1741832323.991004, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6763103216303649 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832323.991004, "end_time": 1741832349.865218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.744 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.5893803206089409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832349.865218, "end_time": 1741832368.904933, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6346541306822222 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832368.904933, "end_time": 1741832419.422327, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6704020896521367 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832419.422327, "end_time": 1741832473.623993, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6789332001138628 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832473.623993, "end_time": 1741832474.073311, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7051172602199004 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832474.073311, "end_time": 1741832474.406137, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.620932409226568 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832474.406137, "end_time": 1741832474.69992, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6668514188592948 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832474.69992, "end_time": 1741832474.994419, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.620932409226568 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832474.994419, "end_time": 1741832475.233335, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6974640919477794 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832475.233335, "end_time": 1741832567.990902, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6668514188592948 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832567.990902, "end_time": 1741832575.461922, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.693878442800138 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832575.461922, "end_time": 1741832576.045995, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7018809350934122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832576.045995, "end_time": 1741832576.717904, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7018809350934122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832576.717904, "end_time": 1741832577.388624, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7161401479387998 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832577.388624, "end_time": 1741832578.067557, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6377144772891683 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832578.067557, "end_time": 1741832578.705781, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7018809350934122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832578.705781, "end_time": 1741832705.03171, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7018809350934122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832705.03171, "end_time": 1741832705.359115, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7223300517839114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832705.359115, "end_time": 1741832705.806721, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7223300517839114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832705.806721, "end_time": 1741832706.291083, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7223300517839114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832706.291083, "end_time": 1741832706.727306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7223300517839114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832706.727306, "end_time": 1741832707.1969, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7223300517839114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832707.1969, "end_time": 1741833013.646716, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7223300517839114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833013.646716, "end_time": 1741833080.850305, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6791675390988375 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833080.850305, "end_time": 1741833150.875726, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.828 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6985291423133132 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833150.875726, "end_time": 1741833218.390393, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7113716713808358 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833218.390393, "end_time": 1741833855.877561, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7240000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.828 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.728463807301944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833855.877561, "end_time": 1741833916.976837, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7430789824602531 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833916.976837, "end_time": 1741833990.590576, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.828 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7467878806179639 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833990.590576, "end_time": 1741834107.902382, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7746666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7586325333510535 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834107.902382, "end_time": 1741834148.815382, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7746666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7745036348799899 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834148.815382, "end_time": 1741834725.050138, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7625 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7731841412959708 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834725.050138, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7114437532642304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2240085184861953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.3190127781780022, 0.9105903213533636, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 3.063066562257688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9541308193971554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13420630889482474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834725.050138, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7114437532642304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2240085184861953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.3190127781780022, 0.9105903213533636, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 3.063066562257688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9541308193971554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13420630889482474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the resolution source, \" In January chatgpt.com received 4.67B visits with the average session duration 08:24. Compared to December traffic to chatgpt.com has decreased by -2.41%.\"" }, { "id": 35923, "title": "Will the Deftones release a new album before April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-deftones-release-a-new-album-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.612792Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.394951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35357, "title": "Will the Deftones release a new album before April 1, 2025?", "description": "[Chino Moreno: Deftones “Getting Very Close” to Releasing New Music](https://consequence.net/2025/02/deftones-new-album-very-close-2025-update/)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.612792Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Deftones release a new album after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025, according to their [discography at genius.com](https://genius.com/artists/Deftones/albums)", "fine_print": "Question may resolve based on other credible sources should there be reason to believe the resolution source is not being timely updated.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35923, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741831281.826745, "end_time": 1741831288.347877, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831288.347877, "end_time": 1741831489.110521, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.07500000000000001 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831489.110521, "end_time": 1741831875.969864, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.06647439730086674 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831875.969864, "end_time": 1741832154.313971, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.10571062650847385 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832154.313971, "end_time": 1741832154.772811, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13589321293400655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832154.772811, "end_time": 1741832155.248581, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.1679038046983534 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832155.248581, "end_time": 1741832155.711726, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13589321293400655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832155.711726, "end_time": 1741832156.231391, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13589321293400655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.231391, "end_time": 1741832156.595105, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.1679038046983534 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.595105, "end_time": 1741832165.671696, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13589321293400655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832165.671696, "end_time": 1741832166.011506, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.21084715461317996 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832166.011506, "end_time": 1741832166.252122, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.19665707216360542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832166.252122, "end_time": 1741832166.464753, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.2817975668610526 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832166.464753, "end_time": 1741832166.681603, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.2817975668610526 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832166.681603, "end_time": 1741832166.903314, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.21084715461317996 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832166.903314, "end_time": 1741832167.549191, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.21084715461317996 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832167.549191, "end_time": 1741832167.796592, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19522799758969114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832167.796592, "end_time": 1741832168.025446, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19522799758969114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832168.025446, "end_time": 1741832168.25483, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19522799758969114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832168.25483, "end_time": 1741832168.474336, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19522799758969114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832168.474336, "end_time": 1741832168.697652, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.22089749211705823 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832168.697652, "end_time": 1741832176.765101, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19522799758969114 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832176.765101, "end_time": 1741832176.999104, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2199078416816497 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832176.999104, "end_time": 1741832177.252658, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19635207914567454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832177.252658, "end_time": 1741832177.508454, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17279631660969935 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832177.508454, "end_time": 1741832177.743757, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19635207914567454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832177.743757, "end_time": 1741832177.964416, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19635207914567454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832177.964416, "end_time": 1741832221.938902, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19635207914567454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832221.938902, "end_time": 1741832222.194429, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16436909371558406 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832222.194429, "end_time": 1741832222.377363, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16436909371558406 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832222.377363, "end_time": 1741832222.561683, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16436909371558406 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832222.561683, "end_time": 1741832222.770275, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16436909371558406 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832222.770275, "end_time": 1741832223.005513, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16436909371558406 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832223.005513, "end_time": 1741832236.390495, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16436909371558406 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832236.390495, "end_time": 1741832236.657855, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15120698190837034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832236.657855, "end_time": 1741832236.9043, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15120698190837034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832236.9043, "end_time": 1741832237.154351, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14098304441954168 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.154351, "end_time": 1741832237.362088, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15120698190837034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.362088, "end_time": 1741832237.602068, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15120698190837034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.602068, "end_time": 1741832240.739269, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15120698190837034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832240.739269, "end_time": 1741832240.944587, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1317104309540543 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832240.944587, "end_time": 1741832241.169975, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.12593121970201807 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832241.169975, "end_time": 1741832241.381412, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15097446846084175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832241.381412, "end_time": 1741832241.577288, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1317104309540543 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832241.577288, "end_time": 1741832241.804413, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14134244970744803 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832241.804413, "end_time": 1741832327.269186, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1317104309540543 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832327.269186, "end_time": 1741832328.85416, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14417376008493868 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832328.85416, "end_time": 1741832329.162367, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15387167157391518 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832329.162367, "end_time": 1741832329.457827, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17124327228306502 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832329.457827, "end_time": 1741832329.78775, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17124327228306502 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832329.78775, "end_time": 1741832330.134237, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17124327228306502 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832330.134237, "end_time": 1741832330.449104, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22335807441051456 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832330.449104, "end_time": 1741832346.489163, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17124327228306502 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832346.489163, "end_time": 1741832403.672054, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17601696181697954 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832403.672054, "end_time": 1741832623.800132, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2032321121158197 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832623.800132, "end_time": 1741832674.944249, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.19508422588576405 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832674.944249, "end_time": 1741832675.526558, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1958096409768652 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832675.526558, "end_time": 1741832676.099562, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2031880830517398 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832676.099562, "end_time": 1741832676.661113, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2031880830517398 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832676.661113, "end_time": 1741832677.250762, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18843119890199062 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832677.250762, "end_time": 1741832677.844523, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34700000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.21794496720148893 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832677.844523, "end_time": 1741832733.905501, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2031880830517398 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832733.905501, "end_time": 1741832734.548006, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.18847427465831695 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832734.548006, "end_time": 1741832735.093153, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.18847427465831695 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832735.093153, "end_time": 1741832735.728272, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.18847427465831695 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832735.728272, "end_time": 1741832736.437135, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1956038810810107 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832736.437135, "end_time": 1741832737.102433, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1956038810810107 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832737.102433, "end_time": 1741832752.453123, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.18847427465831695 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832752.453123, "end_time": 1741833031.925629, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.19600202215557108 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833031.925629, "end_time": 1741833142.310236, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2099281640498475 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833142.310236, "end_time": 1741833192.809856, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1956276177742446 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833192.809856, "end_time": 1741833271.895168, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17200000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.18352463087808848 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833271.895168, "end_time": 1741833848.206681, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.204050158848387 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833848.206681, "end_time": 1741833979.155356, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.20356311231785096 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833979.155356, "end_time": 1741834032.883069, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1855323525873744 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834032.883069, "end_time": 1741834106.335572, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07400000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.17273286748028083 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834106.335572, "end_time": 1741834126.78528, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.24876857553413378 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834126.78528, "end_time": 1741834741.261991, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.23186564147544383 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834741.261991, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23381897941930482 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9371536042477027, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 1.3935310707277817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31489077680617433, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0751680600754505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 1.2830705323376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5700102153501857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834741.261991, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23381897941930482 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9371536042477027, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 1.3935310707277817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31489077680617433, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0751680600754505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 1.2830705323376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5700102153501857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chino Moreno: Deftones “Getting Very Close” to Releasing New Music](https://consequence.net/2025/02/deftones-new-album-very-close-2025-update/)" }, { "id": 35922, "title": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have a higher approval rating than Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-turkeys-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.447182Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.315825Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35356, "title": "Will Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez have a higher approval rating than Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on April 1, 2025?", "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.447182Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Pedro Sánchez has a higher approval rating than Recep Tayyip Erdoğan according to [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this not the case (including due to a tie), this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741831264.330966, "end_time": 1741831297.180551, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.65 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831297.180551, "end_time": 1741831454.960989, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6000000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6000000000000001 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831454.960989, "end_time": 1741831876.635386, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6170512053982666 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831876.635386, "end_time": 1741832151.13215, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5140388148579045 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.13215, "end_time": 1741832151.492525, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49353961126301465 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.492525, "end_time": 1741832151.819879, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.47753431538084123 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.819879, "end_time": 1741832152.281715, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49353961126301465 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.281715, "end_time": 1741832152.596122, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.47753431538084123 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.596122, "end_time": 1741832153.067308, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5095449071451881 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832153.067308, "end_time": 1741832154.982167, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49353961126301465 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832154.982167, "end_time": 1741832155.192961, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5663234924875699 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832155.192961, "end_time": 1741832155.483194, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.42442266799182454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832155.483194, "end_time": 1741832155.714034, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4528028328909736 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832155.714034, "end_time": 1741832155.89581, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4386127504413991 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832155.89581, "end_time": 1741832156.127961, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48004004163471237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.127961, "end_time": 1741832156.146826, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.46631691812312387 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.146826, "end_time": 1741832156.391157, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.42870105257997826 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.391157, "end_time": 1741832156.402574, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.41586630531629465 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.402574, "end_time": 1741832156.685496, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.41357911806436326 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832156.685496, "end_time": 1741832157.00921, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48004004163471237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832157.00921, "end_time": 1741832157.246308, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48004004163471237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832157.246308, "end_time": 1741832171.641654, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48004004163471237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832171.641654, "end_time": 1741832171.864819, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5082975245654943 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832171.864819, "end_time": 1741832172.130439, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.43763023695756875 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832172.130439, "end_time": 1741832172.365471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.43763023695756875 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832172.365471, "end_time": 1741832172.603211, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4140744744215935 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832172.603211, "end_time": 1741832172.849207, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4140744744215935 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832172.849207, "end_time": 1741832212.739882, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.43763023695756875 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832212.739882, "end_time": 1741832213.045057, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5168205492465757 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.045057, "end_time": 1741832213.279964, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.37477309320144414 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.279964, "end_time": 1741832213.514224, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4075532753657053 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.514224, "end_time": 1741832213.765636, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4184800027537923 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.765636, "end_time": 1741832213.980501, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.42940673014187936 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832213.980501, "end_time": 1741832227.657736, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4184800027537923 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832227.657736, "end_time": 1741832227.934516, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.40447729740600047 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832227.934516, "end_time": 1741832228.189251, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.40447729740600047 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832228.189251, "end_time": 1741832228.407657, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4249251723836578 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832228.407657, "end_time": 1741832228.608617, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4147012348948292 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832228.608617, "end_time": 1741832228.830631, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4147012348948292 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832228.830631, "end_time": 1741832236.932702, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4147012348948292 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832236.932702, "end_time": 1741832237.158127, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4118691834907284 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.158127, "end_time": 1741832237.342785, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4118691834907284 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.342785, "end_time": 1741832237.547984, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3926051459839409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.547984, "end_time": 1741832237.742801, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3926051459839409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.742801, "end_time": 1741832237.984745, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4118691834907284 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.984745, "end_time": 1741832331.632526, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4118691834907284 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832331.632526, "end_time": 1741832350.599063, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.44620438751346164 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832350.599063, "end_time": 1741832361.998548, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.46423534686823964 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832361.998548, "end_time": 1741832362.23074, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4369718638961477 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832362.23074, "end_time": 1741832362.452561, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4618722432833856 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832362.452561, "end_time": 1741832362.666233, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4535721168209729 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832362.666233, "end_time": 1741832362.869013, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4369718638961477 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832362.869013, "end_time": 1741832363.099477, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48677262267062343 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832363.099477, "end_time": 1741832421.037945, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4535721168209729 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832421.037945, "end_time": 1741832436.064949, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4837231093772645 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832436.064949, "end_time": 1741832436.629005, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.47856133676279755 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832436.629005, "end_time": 1741832437.345791, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4556018319464341 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832437.345791, "end_time": 1741832438.057105, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4862145050349187 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832438.057105, "end_time": 1741832438.70162, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4556018319464341 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832438.70162, "end_time": 1741832439.223203, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4632550002185553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832439.223203, "end_time": 1741832505.007849, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4632550002185553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832505.007849, "end_time": 1741832505.61058, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4465420910425049 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832505.61058, "end_time": 1741832506.254864, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.46129897519225405 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832506.254864, "end_time": 1741832506.829248, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4760558593420032 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832506.829248, "end_time": 1741832507.439771, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4465420910425049 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832507.439771, "end_time": 1741832508.030631, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4465420910425049 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832508.030631, "end_time": 1741832690.158967, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4465420910425049 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832690.158967, "end_time": 1741833016.715466, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.643 ], "means": [ 0.4755535873315289 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833016.715466, "end_time": 1741833038.819116, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48583155783321097 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833038.819116, "end_time": 1741833139.301375, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.49107651830935045 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833139.301375, "end_time": 1741833203.365746, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.643 ], "means": [ 0.5130517608491757 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833203.365746, "end_time": 1741833354.21473, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.643 ], "means": [ 0.4860871377645772 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833354.21473, "end_time": 1741833850.659756, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4754730513481307 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833850.659756, "end_time": 1741833987.889818, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.45437177012413127 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833987.889818, "end_time": 1741834101.367193, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.46560005021247475 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834101.367193, "end_time": 1741834111.419858, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4724168056653101 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834111.419858, "end_time": 1741834149.034587, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4642866856146375 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834149.034587, "end_time": 1741834723.245478, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4133333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4586856637498748 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834723.245478, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4685215648970986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2448197473550149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.62542688428954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8104402425198125, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1524603524531234, 0.0, 0.0, 2.226239889280728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2110594023760083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.35738393081092334, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834723.245478, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4685215648970986 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2448197473550149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.62542688428954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8104402425198125, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1524603524531234, 0.0, 0.0, 2.226239889280728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2110594023760083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.35738393081092334, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"" }, { "id": 35921, "title": "Will Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump on April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-australian-prime-minister-anthony-albanese-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-us-president-donald-trump-on-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.410867Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.280188Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35355, "title": "Will Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese have a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump on April 1, 2025?", "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.410867Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthony Albanese has a higher approval rating than US President Donald Trump according to [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this not the case (including due to a tie), this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35921, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741831246.076635, "end_time": 1741831297.936656, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831297.936656, "end_time": 1741831427.467499, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.375 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831427.467499, "end_time": 1741831877.305837, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.47966607615379336 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831877.305837, "end_time": 1741832141.424638, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3771687004262179 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832141.424638, "end_time": 1741832142.43404, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35246654276292955 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832142.43404, "end_time": 1741832142.752703, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35246654276292955 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832142.752703, "end_time": 1741832143.058456, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35246654276292955 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832143.058456, "end_time": 1741832143.38684, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35246654276292955 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832143.38684, "end_time": 1741832143.709942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35246654276292955 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832143.709942, "end_time": 1741832143.963952, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35246654276292955 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832143.963952, "end_time": 1741832144.203592, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32338636896035305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832144.203592, "end_time": 1741832144.46031, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32338636896035305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832144.46031, "end_time": 1741832144.522137, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32338636896035305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832144.522137, "end_time": 1741832144.714717, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.38155694257834305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832144.714717, "end_time": 1741832144.798336, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.38066856633043805 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832144.798336, "end_time": 1741832144.9553, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.34076551353536094 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832144.9553, "end_time": 1741832145.018053, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.31280883175606244 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832145.018053, "end_time": 1741832145.176715, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3196703935118567 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832145.176715, "end_time": 1741832145.235862, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.325643579019746 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832145.235862, "end_time": 1741832145.546955, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33021795352360883 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832145.546955, "end_time": 1741832145.762725, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33021795352360883 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832145.762725, "end_time": 1741832151.216672, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33021795352360883 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.216672, "end_time": 1741832151.483524, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29954412161238103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.483524, "end_time": 1741832151.724313, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29954412161238103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.724313, "end_time": 1741832151.940055, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29954412161238103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832151.940055, "end_time": 1741832152.204202, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29954412161238103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.204202, "end_time": 1741832152.409856, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29954412161238103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.409856, "end_time": 1741832178.295515, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29954412161238103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.295515, "end_time": 1741832178.52185, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2996437467896538 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.52185, "end_time": 1741832178.789198, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3979842932824371 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832178.789198, "end_time": 1741832179.072533, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.27779029201347966 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.072533, "end_time": 1741832179.309347, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3870575658943501 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.309347, "end_time": 1741832179.595222, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3105704741777408 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832179.595222, "end_time": 1741832199.459839, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.20400000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3105704741777408 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832199.459839, "end_time": 1741832199.692179, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.33908084929981674 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832199.692179, "end_time": 1741832199.92892, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3084090368333308 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832199.92892, "end_time": 1741832200.217959, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3288569118109881 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832200.217959, "end_time": 1741832200.434755, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3288569118109881 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832200.434755, "end_time": 1741832200.707107, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3288569118109881 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832200.707107, "end_time": 1741832251.931812, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3288569118109881 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832251.931812, "end_time": 1741832252.125494, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4003540555235686 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832252.125494, "end_time": 1741832252.305058, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38109001801678116 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832252.305058, "end_time": 1741832252.476186, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38109001801678116 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832252.476186, "end_time": 1741832252.694521, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4003540555235686 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832252.694521, "end_time": 1741832252.879957, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38109001801678116 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832252.879957, "end_time": 1741832318.223256, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38109001801678116 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832318.223256, "end_time": 1741832318.911605, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3754158699346989 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832318.911605, "end_time": 1741832319.477719, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4119172838548805 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832319.477719, "end_time": 1741832320.060471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3754158699346989 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832320.060471, "end_time": 1741832320.804601, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3754158699346989 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832320.804601, "end_time": 1741832321.542149, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36629051645465344 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832321.542149, "end_time": 1741832352.577316, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3754158699346989 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832352.577316, "end_time": 1741832353.335126, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4144297282657608 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832353.335126, "end_time": 1741832353.571127, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3954341039524542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832353.571127, "end_time": 1741832353.791046, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3954341039524542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832353.791046, "end_time": 1741832353.997571, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3954341039524542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832353.997571, "end_time": 1741832354.260278, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3954341039524542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832354.260278, "end_time": 1741832354.55977, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3954341039524542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832354.55977, "end_time": 1741832419.84381, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3954341039524542 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832419.84381, "end_time": 1741832604.753953, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3722855446584818 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832604.753953, "end_time": 1741832605.328304, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36887444419233734 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832605.328304, "end_time": 1741832605.895833, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36887444419233734 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832605.895833, "end_time": 1741832606.483302, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3765276124644584 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832606.483302, "end_time": 1741832607.140737, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36887444419233734 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832607.140737, "end_time": 1741832607.704123, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36887444419233734 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832607.704123, "end_time": 1741832749.163801, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36887444419233734 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832749.163801, "end_time": 1741833002.014522, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.38084604847871417 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833002.014522, "end_time": 1741833128.806467, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.40496607046251787 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833128.806467, "end_time": 1741833202.482675, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3973775295166572 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833202.482675, "end_time": 1741833297.083812, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.41781487093675196 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833297.083812, "end_time": 1741833363.106226, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.46935456343362253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833363.106226, "end_time": 1741833874.091744, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.324 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4509579493855056 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833874.091744, "end_time": 1741833987.502193, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.42618090259040026 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833987.502193, "end_time": 1741834110.365583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.324 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4230325525502443 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834110.365583, "end_time": 1741834119.126398, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.324 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4672945459976608 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834119.126398, "end_time": 1741834519.89632, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26249999999999996 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4437922645456708 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834519.89632, "end_time": 1741834738.484114, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.44628549182404226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834738.484114, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.324 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.47417493273571404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12237051261030621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9095423364255001, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2593830684343312, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0149670300209221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8149870381409913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7910469104158988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35250077814618447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834738.484114, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.324 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.47417493273571404 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12237051261030621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9095423364255001, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2593830684343312, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0149670300209221, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8149870381409913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7910469104158988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35250077814618447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Resolution source updates monthly. According to Morning Consult for January 2025: \"The latest approval ratings are based on data collected from Jan. 21-27, 2025. Ratings reflect a trailing seven-day simple moving average of views among adults in each country surveyed.\"" }, { "id": 35920, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on India before April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-states-impose-any-new-tariffs-on-india-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.378281Z", "published_at": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T03:00:00.223679Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35354, "title": "Will the United States impose any new tariffs on India before April 1, 2025?", "description": "Reuters: [All of Donald Trump's tariff threats](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/all-donald-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-28/)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.378281Z", "open_time": "2025-03-13T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-13T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US government officially announces the implementation of any new tariff on imports from India after the launch of this question and before April 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as No.", "fine_print": "Please note that a mere intention to impose a tariff will not count. If a tariff is announced but does not go into effect, [such as happened](https://www.globaltradeandsanctionslaw.com/trump-2-0-u-s-tariffs-on-china-take-effect-mexico-and-canada-granted-30-day-pause/) with Mexico and Canada, it will not count. Tariff must specifically target India in order to count, so a global tariff on a particular good would not count unless India is specifically targeted.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741831223.674227, "end_time": 1741831289.223368, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831289.223368, "end_time": 1741831397.249254, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.5499999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.5499999999999999 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831397.249254, "end_time": 1741831877.949346, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.4135903568138675 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741831877.949346, "end_time": 1741832132.606901, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.278401225335524 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832132.606901, "end_time": 1741832132.639981, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3813468962125111 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832132.639981, "end_time": 1741832132.828022, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.48597125497323157 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832132.828022, "end_time": 1741832132.964571, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4635998247295811 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832132.964571, "end_time": 1741832133.085927, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5028884533541648 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.085927, "end_time": 1741832133.246216, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.45814559286686385 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.246216, "end_time": 1741832133.287852, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.533063143933784 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.287852, "end_time": 1741832133.390963, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5065052731585118 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.390963, "end_time": 1741832133.475434, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.49263987474805115 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.475434, "end_time": 1741832133.536816, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.5219513626598913 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.536816, "end_time": 1741832133.694042, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.4914913903048183 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.694042, "end_time": 1741832133.71901, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.34293717389238365 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.71901, "end_time": 1741832133.89526, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3545892134758838 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.89526, "end_time": 1741832133.966566, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.36841060701485945 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832133.966566, "end_time": 1741832134.010344, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5161302336854083 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832134.010344, "end_time": 1741832134.185923, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5364450291229289 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832134.185923, "end_time": 1741832134.425966, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.491967601823989 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832134.425966, "end_time": 1741832134.621866, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5176370963513561 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832134.621866, "end_time": 1741832136.734825, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5153499090994247 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832136.734825, "end_time": 1741832136.946502, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5706235273024142 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832136.946502, "end_time": 1741832137.197784, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5941792898383893 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832137.197784, "end_time": 1741832137.419797, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5706235273024142 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832137.419797, "end_time": 1741832137.639629, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5706235273024142 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832137.639629, "end_time": 1741832137.847485, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5706235273024142 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832137.847485, "end_time": 1741832152.354809, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5706235273024142 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.354809, "end_time": 1741832152.641359, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6426036658067384 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.641359, "end_time": 1741832152.893486, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6316769384186515 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832152.893486, "end_time": 1741832153.197598, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.533336391925868 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832153.197598, "end_time": 1741832153.537399, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6426036658067384 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832153.537399, "end_time": 1741832153.849205, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4787027549854328 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832153.849205, "end_time": 1741832174.727505, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6316769384186515 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832174.727505, "end_time": 1741832175.035039, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5434081777434269 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832175.035039, "end_time": 1741832175.341939, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6354236151428847 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832175.341939, "end_time": 1741832175.59414, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5740799902099128 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832175.59414, "end_time": 1741832175.836749, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5638560527210841 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832175.836749, "end_time": 1741832176.074119, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5843039276987414 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832176.074119, "end_time": 1741832232.574268, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5740799902099128 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832232.574268, "end_time": 1741832232.923775, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5790732306176383 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832232.923775, "end_time": 1741832233.171733, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5790732306176383 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832233.171733, "end_time": 1741832233.484397, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5405451556040632 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832233.484397, "end_time": 1741832233.807673, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5790732306176383 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832233.807673, "end_time": 1741832233.841315, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5983372681244257 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832233.841315, "end_time": 1741832234.10083, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.607766081926614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832234.10083, "end_time": 1741832234.405242, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5907666212101979 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832234.405242, "end_time": 1741832235.08855, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5920178674538723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832235.08855, "end_time": 1741832235.802909, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5920178674538723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832235.802909, "end_time": 1741832236.693739, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5920178674538723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832236.693739, "end_time": 1741832237.285984, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5920178674538723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832237.285984, "end_time": 1741832261.443572, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5920178674538723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832261.443572, "end_time": 1741832261.61448, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.49786068774753667 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832261.61448, "end_time": 1741832261.804147, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4943863676057067 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832261.804147, "end_time": 1741832262.001124, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.49264920753479174 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832262.001124, "end_time": 1741832262.202468, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5065464881021117 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832262.202468, "end_time": 1741832262.415451, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4943863676057067 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832262.415451, "end_time": 1741832296.213812, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4943863676057067 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832296.213812, "end_time": 1741832296.846436, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.47041786539419145 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832296.846436, "end_time": 1741832297.466643, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.45381761246936625 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832297.466643, "end_time": 1741832298.040432, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.47041786539419145 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832298.040432, "end_time": 1741832298.651032, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.47041786539419145 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832298.651032, "end_time": 1741832299.17928, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.437217359544541 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832299.17928, "end_time": 1741832335.76422, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.47041786539419145 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832335.76422, "end_time": 1741832348.796416, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.427375801523991 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832348.796416, "end_time": 1741832434.518853, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.37726655957831856 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832434.518853, "end_time": 1741832770.208854, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3314808828259336 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832770.208854, "end_time": 1741832817.23164, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3021809263872024 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741832817.23164, "end_time": 1741833014.359283, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.126 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.26060029723234834 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833014.359283, "end_time": 1741833117.197433, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25248544389014743 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833117.197433, "end_time": 1741833214.847767, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.055 ], "centers": [ 0.126 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2267945779185443 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833214.847767, "end_time": 1741833847.239933, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.055 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2170751705770566 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833847.239933, "end_time": 1741833874.912864, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.144 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2080653905385733 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833874.912864, "end_time": 1741833989.929422, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29728576212146385 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741833989.929422, "end_time": 1741834106.955773, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2858628612989172 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834106.955773, "end_time": 1741834124.389138, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.26453318546971216 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834124.389138, "end_time": 1741834184.50495, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.144 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2396058714779166 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834184.50495, "end_time": 1741834717.491505, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.067 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2297559906969994 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741834717.491505, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.144 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2157793562476193 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.8277762550959286, 0.482039165292421, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.001436018312866, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 1.4481611817626001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3020739812308801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3015968551108629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1306522096286833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6338233183670307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741834717.491505, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.856, 0.144 ], "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.144 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2157793562476193 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.8277762550959286, 0.482039165292421, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.001436018312866, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 1.4481611817626001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3020739812308801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3015968551108629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1306522096286833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6338233183670307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [All of Donald Trump's tariff threats](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/all-donald-trumps-tariff-threats-2025-01-28/)" }, { "id": 35919, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all Google models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-chinese-model-have-a-higher-arena-score-than-all-google-models-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.342901Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.928868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35353, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all Google models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.342901Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese model has a higher Arena Score than all models with Google as their Organization at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) in the \"Overall\" category when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "A Chinese model is defined as one whose Organization is headquartered in the People's Republic of China or conducts a majority of its R&D activities in the PRC. At the time of this question, models that qualified under this definition were Yi-Lightning, from 01 AI; Qwen2.5-plus-1127, from Alibaba; and GLM-4-Plus, from Zhipu AI.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813397.745386, "end_time": 1741813504.914255, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813504.914255, "end_time": 1741813621.900272, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.900272, "end_time": 1741813629.092219, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.44005884484959557 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813629.092219, "end_time": 1741813629.310362, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.3136191331652725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813629.310362, "end_time": 1741813629.51366, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.33220999083583924 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813629.51366, "end_time": 1741813629.757928, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.3508008485064059 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813629.757928, "end_time": 1741813630.156631, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.3136191331652725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813630.156631, "end_time": 1741813630.40479, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.33220999083583924 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813630.40479, "end_time": 1741813685.209614, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.33220999083583924 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813685.209614, "end_time": 1741813685.529208, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3218993821620452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813685.529208, "end_time": 1741813685.841242, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3218993821620452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813685.841242, "end_time": 1741813686.126923, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3218993821620452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.126923, "end_time": 1741813686.453627, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3218993821620452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.453627, "end_time": 1741813686.79357, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3218993821620452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.79357, "end_time": 1741813688.443632, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3218993821620452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813688.443632, "end_time": 1741813698.40515, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.4717752083378817 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813698.40515, "end_time": 1741813705.726133, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.49185511695263345 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.726133, "end_time": 1741813705.927638, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.43488429992216615 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.927638, "end_time": 1741813706.125629, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.43488429992216615 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.125629, "end_time": 1741813706.325866, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.43488429992216615 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.325866, "end_time": 1741813706.517822, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.45844006245814134 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.517822, "end_time": 1741813706.729941, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.43488429992216615 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.729941, "end_time": 1741813716.579797, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.43488429992216615 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813716.579797, "end_time": 1741813718.921583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5256014217074739 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813718.921583, "end_time": 1741813719.164783, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.46924678756008353 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.164783, "end_time": 1741813719.511087, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.46924678756008353 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.511087, "end_time": 1741813719.745739, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.46924678756008353 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.745739, "end_time": 1741813719.977579, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.46924678756008353 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.977579, "end_time": 1741813720.296237, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.46924678756008353 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813720.296237, "end_time": 1741813722.838583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.46924678756008353 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813722.838583, "end_time": 1741813723.057293, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.39811494791190133 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813723.057293, "end_time": 1741813723.258397, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.39811494791190133 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813723.258397, "end_time": 1741813723.491183, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.4173789854186888 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813723.491183, "end_time": 1741813723.699231, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.4173789854186888 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813723.699231, "end_time": 1741813723.926033, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.4173789854186888 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813723.926033, "end_time": 1741813740.954362, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.597 ], "means": [ 0.4173789854186888 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813740.954362, "end_time": 1741813785.137517, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4050818442372415 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813785.137517, "end_time": 1741813811.948583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37293016527121725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813811.948583, "end_time": 1741813812.147506, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3359231939904643 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813812.147506, "end_time": 1741813812.357223, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35252344691528953 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813812.357223, "end_time": 1741813812.555722, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3608235733777021 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813812.555722, "end_time": 1741813812.75247, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35252344691528953 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813812.75247, "end_time": 1741813812.927315, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36912369984011467 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813812.927315, "end_time": 1741813822.725795, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35252344691528953 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813822.725795, "end_time": 1741813866.018485, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3282464860190069 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813866.018485, "end_time": 1741813884.824717, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39799999999999996 ], "means": [ 0.3389231936203729 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813884.824717, "end_time": 1741813911.97965, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39799999999999996 ], "means": [ 0.31473323784324536 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813911.97965, "end_time": 1741813912.206474, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30550278767746614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813912.206474, "end_time": 1741813912.47914, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30550278767746614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813912.47914, "end_time": 1741813912.765339, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39799999999999996 ], "means": [ 0.3268916069455474 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813912.765339, "end_time": 1741813913.001061, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30550278767746614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813913.001061, "end_time": 1741813913.29218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2912435748320786 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813913.29218, "end_time": 1741814048.307494, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30550278767746614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814048.307494, "end_time": 1741814048.757939, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3047430802933389 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814048.757939, "end_time": 1741814049.257885, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2909372162721236 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814049.257885, "end_time": 1741814049.770613, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3047430802933389 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814049.770613, "end_time": 1741814050.259585, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3047430802933389 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814050.259585, "end_time": 1741814050.812654, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29784014828273125 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814050.812654, "end_time": 1741814133.629492, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3047430802933389 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814133.629492, "end_time": 1741814225.791648, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.30845994874015853 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814225.791648, "end_time": 1741814309.497892, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.3008548985744074 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814309.497892, "end_time": 1741814365.938747, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2880903275825746 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814365.938747, "end_time": 1741814388.623435, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2833939926934088 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814388.623435, "end_time": 1741814388.865947, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2914036105839404 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814388.865947, "end_time": 1741814389.081898, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2914036105839404 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814389.081898, "end_time": 1741814389.269491, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.29501122116491824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814389.269491, "end_time": 1741814389.532818, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2914036105839404 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814389.532818, "end_time": 1741814389.756685, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2914036105839404 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814389.756685, "end_time": 1741814425.371975, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2914036105839404 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814425.371975, "end_time": 1741814538.800441, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.2924129638704885 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814538.800441, "end_time": 1741814539.597246, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.281807625353702 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814539.597246, "end_time": 1741814540.28597, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.29328365433557657 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814540.28597, "end_time": 1741814540.964806, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.281807625353702 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814540.964806, "end_time": 1741814541.601254, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.281807625353702 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814541.601254, "end_time": 1741814542.218002, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.281807625353702 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814542.218002, "end_time": 1741814851.329846, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.281807625353702 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814851.329846, "end_time": 1741814869.498691, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.27823663364429696 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814869.498691, "end_time": 1741814871.019808, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25996315450938484 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814871.019808, "end_time": 1741815453.746406, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3325 ], "means": [ 0.32351882740579174 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815453.746406, "end_time": 1741815588.789007, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35800408312290716 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815588.789007, "end_time": 1741815941.087174, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3390355485539217 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815941.087174, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3338413167105589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.1304888208986543, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2171749402627514, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 1.936677333048813, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8242561112693736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.5946400878857521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.872722618486101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741815941.087174, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3338413167105589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.1304888208986543, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2171749402627514, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 1.936677333048813, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8242561112693736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.5946400878857521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.872722618486101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)" }, { "id": 35918, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-chinese-model-have-a-higher-arena-score-than-all-openai-models-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.305999Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.887942Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35352, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all OpenAI models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.305999Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese model has a higher Arena Score than all models with OpenAI as their Organization at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) in the \"Overall\" category when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "A Chinese model is defined as one whose Organization is headquartered in the People's Republic of China or conducts a majority of its R&D activities in the PRC. At the time of this question, models that qualified under this definition were Yi-Lightning, from 01 AI; Qwen2.5-plus-1127, from Alibaba; and GLM-4-Plus, from Zhipu AI.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813378.289005, "end_time": 1741813495.785345, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813495.785345, "end_time": 1741813532.015444, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813532.015444, "end_time": 1741813645.145988, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.145988, "end_time": 1741813645.349831, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25704571164716655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.349831, "end_time": 1741813645.528869, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25704571164716655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.528869, "end_time": 1741813645.753514, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25704571164716655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.753514, "end_time": 1741813645.978351, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25704571164716655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.978351, "end_time": 1741813646.173929, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25704571164716655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813646.173929, "end_time": 1741813669.193671, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25704571164716655 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813669.193671, "end_time": 1741813675.881811, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.254790337654899 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813675.881811, "end_time": 1741813676.205696, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2676209143787872 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813676.205696, "end_time": 1741813676.68156, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2676209143787872 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813676.68156, "end_time": 1741813677.002474, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2676209143787872 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813677.002474, "end_time": 1741813677.290968, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2676209143787872 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813677.290968, "end_time": 1741813677.595447, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2676209143787872 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813677.595447, "end_time": 1741813679.33615, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2676209143787872 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813679.33615, "end_time": 1741813685.337211, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26309771472665233 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813685.337211, "end_time": 1741813695.049288, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4013470233638538 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813695.049288, "end_time": 1741813695.284222, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3901259248341225 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813695.284222, "end_time": 1741813695.48803, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36827247005794844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813695.48803, "end_time": 1741813695.672068, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36827247005794844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813695.672068, "end_time": 1741813695.842272, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36827247005794844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813695.842272, "end_time": 1741813696.0598, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3901259248341225 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813696.0598, "end_time": 1741813704.733754, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36827247005794844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813704.733754, "end_time": 1741813705.085354, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3645361382251692 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.085354, "end_time": 1741813705.3495, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3645361382251692 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.3495, "end_time": 1741813705.575142, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3645361382251692 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.575142, "end_time": 1741813705.802545, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3645361382251692 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.802545, "end_time": 1741813705.895327, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35431220073634057 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813705.895327, "end_time": 1741813706.055134, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3245854405089428 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.055134, "end_time": 1741813706.162958, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.33697270809650354 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.162958, "end_time": 1741813706.384979, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.332839834845253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.384979, "end_time": 1741813706.722216, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.332839834845253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.722216, "end_time": 1741813706.957654, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.332839834845253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813706.957654, "end_time": 1741813707.174352, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.332839834845253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813707.174352, "end_time": 1741813782.507942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.332839834845253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813782.507942, "end_time": 1741813782.690715, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3177209793414226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813782.690715, "end_time": 1741813782.902884, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3177209793414226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813782.902884, "end_time": 1741813783.107306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3177209793414226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813783.107306, "end_time": 1741813783.292084, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.326846332821468 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813783.292084, "end_time": 1741813783.470222, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.326846332821468 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813783.470222, "end_time": 1741813791.31218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3177209793414226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813791.31218, "end_time": 1741813802.316387, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.28858516050475497 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813802.316387, "end_time": 1741813817.683859, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2987801791943411 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813817.683859, "end_time": 1741813859.813066, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29897433650325567 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813859.813066, "end_time": 1741813881.76465, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.31795812195929685 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813881.76465, "end_time": 1741813882.014186, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3153080627062927 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813882.014186, "end_time": 1741813882.237228, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3153080627062927 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813882.237228, "end_time": 1741813882.561045, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30055117855654356 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813882.561045, "end_time": 1741813882.921607, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30055117855654356 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813882.921607, "end_time": 1741813883.156161, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30792962063141815 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813883.156161, "end_time": 1741813885.535145, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30792962063141815 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813885.535145, "end_time": 1741814000.558347, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.28312862582440923 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814000.558347, "end_time": 1741814001.271813, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2854578648016016 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814001.271813, "end_time": 1741814001.989115, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.423 ], "means": [ 0.3268754568652478 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814001.989115, "end_time": 1741814002.577585, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2854578648016016 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814002.577585, "end_time": 1741814003.290255, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.29926372882281704 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814003.290255, "end_time": 1741814003.998217, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2854578648016016 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814003.998217, "end_time": 1741814139.351237, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2854578648016016 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814139.351237, "end_time": 1741814243.533626, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2857313226623183 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814243.533626, "end_time": 1741814308.146853, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2745785415929902 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814308.146853, "end_time": 1741814368.400683, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2651396040491807 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814368.400683, "end_time": 1741814431.281696, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2509435029931145 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814431.281696, "end_time": 1741814578.620261, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2568427275820395 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814578.620261, "end_time": 1741814579.183903, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2583876013091729 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814579.183903, "end_time": 1741814579.665236, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2560392821772767 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814579.665236, "end_time": 1741814580.1094, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.27130335653460186 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814580.1094, "end_time": 1741814580.695961, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.27130335653460186 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814580.695961, "end_time": 1741814581.159979, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2619100800070171 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814581.159979, "end_time": 1741814747.420949, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2619100800070171 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814747.420949, "end_time": 1741814747.657172, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.272019304755522 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814747.657172, "end_time": 1741814747.860445, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.272019304755522 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814747.860445, "end_time": 1741814748.095139, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.272019304755522 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814748.095139, "end_time": 1741814748.30847, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.28005252504283423 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814748.30847, "end_time": 1741814748.549847, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.272019304755522 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814748.549847, "end_time": 1741814826.078657, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.272019304755522 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814826.078657, "end_time": 1741814865.577273, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2695472322931971 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814865.577273, "end_time": 1741815209.446396, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3278569885138845 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815209.446396, "end_time": 1741815290.31602, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.2875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32061959961222136 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815290.31602, "end_time": 1741816036.573342, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31580093412581894 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816036.573342, "end_time": 1741816220.097905, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26066666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2955059946674964 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816220.097905, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26066666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2889407847092709 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.551296799193389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8182851626977582, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.1102680066304433, 0.7620908974955233, 0.8355804261814468, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 1.4686805127934779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8459033425465498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816220.097905, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7393333333333334, 0.26066666666666666 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.26066666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2889407847092709 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.551296799193389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8182851626977582, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.1102680066304433, 0.7620908974955233, 0.8355804261814468, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 1.4686805127934779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8459033425465498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)" }, { "id": 35917, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all Anthropic models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-chinese-model-have-a-higher-arena-score-than-all-anthropic-models-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.018359Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.843366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35351, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all Anthropic models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:12.018359Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese model has a higher Arena Score than all models with Anthropic as their Organization at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) in the \"Overall\" category when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "A Chinese model is defined as one whose Organization is headquartered in the People's Republic of China or conducts a majority of its R&D activities in the PRC. At the time of this question, models that qualified under this definition were Yi-Lightning, from 01 AI; Qwen2.5-plus-1127, from Alibaba; and GLM-4-Plus, from Zhipu AI.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813357.926657, "end_time": 1741813520.937936, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813520.937936, "end_time": 1741813524.666918, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813524.666918, "end_time": 1741813640.740165, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.38381259651522287 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813640.740165, "end_time": 1741813657.132844, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.5311218690963604 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813657.132844, "end_time": 1741813657.355286, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.39311720757310264 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813657.355286, "end_time": 1741813657.538242, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.409122503455276 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813657.538242, "end_time": 1741813657.738631, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.409122503455276 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813657.738631, "end_time": 1741813657.922509, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.39311720757310264 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813657.922509, "end_time": 1741813658.093675, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.39311720757310264 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813658.093675, "end_time": 1741813665.525518, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.39311720757310264 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813665.525518, "end_time": 1741813671.063546, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.36669039051437324 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.063546, "end_time": 1741813671.374426, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.42657978795310775 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.374426, "end_time": 1741813671.690142, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3495713043710065 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.690142, "end_time": 1741813672.007031, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3495713043710065 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.007031, "end_time": 1741813672.343327, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4137450406894242 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.343327, "end_time": 1741813672.785973, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.49075352427152547 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.785973, "end_time": 1741813675.578251, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4137450406894242 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813675.578251, "end_time": 1741813682.519486, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.5165082229560386 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.519486, "end_time": 1741813682.738879, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.45826696897755553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.738879, "end_time": 1741813682.971521, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.4473402415894685 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.971521, "end_time": 1741813683.205448, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.45826696897755553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.205448, "end_time": 1741813683.421902, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.45826696897755553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.421902, "end_time": 1741813683.684845, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.45826696897755553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.684845, "end_time": 1741813692.828564, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.45826696897755553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813692.828564, "end_time": 1741813693.047448, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49747229945189786 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813693.047448, "end_time": 1741813693.298482, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4361286745189259 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813693.298482, "end_time": 1741813693.540965, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.41568079954126863 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813693.540965, "end_time": 1741813693.796688, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.44635261200775456 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813693.796688, "end_time": 1741813694.068457, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5076962369407265 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813694.068457, "end_time": 1741813696.109471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.44635261200775456 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813696.109471, "end_time": 1741813696.316669, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4085271711850239 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813696.316669, "end_time": 1741813696.522492, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.3988951524316302 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813696.522492, "end_time": 1741813696.751292, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.3988951524316302 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813696.751292, "end_time": 1741813696.969244, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.37963111492484275 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813696.969244, "end_time": 1741813697.206179, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.37963111492484275 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813697.206179, "end_time": 1741813760.896764, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.3988951524316302 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813760.896764, "end_time": 1741813761.135197, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.45384891580396136 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813761.135197, "end_time": 1741813761.331942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.399096794923689 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813761.331942, "end_time": 1741813761.576461, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4629742692840068 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813761.576461, "end_time": 1741813761.774986, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.45384891580396136 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813761.774986, "end_time": 1741813761.971652, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.45384891580396136 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813761.971652, "end_time": 1741813797.990508, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.45384891580396136 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813797.990508, "end_time": 1741813816.117997, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4097512957459913 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813816.117997, "end_time": 1741813858.381804, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.40813255598870896 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813858.381804, "end_time": 1741813858.627131, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3909212361133394 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813858.627131, "end_time": 1741813858.857378, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.359087493318678 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813858.857378, "end_time": 1741813859.118855, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4864224644973236 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813859.118855, "end_time": 1741813859.430862, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.46254715740132757 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813859.430862, "end_time": 1741813859.683125, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.36704592901734334 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813859.683125, "end_time": 1741813862.902263, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3909212361133394 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813862.902263, "end_time": 1741813873.39188, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39231086226788897 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813873.39188, "end_time": 1741813886.254575, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3832632893518043 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.254575, "end_time": 1741814121.428205, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3571313868556721 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814121.428205, "end_time": 1741814226.385527, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3578725702862032 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814226.385527, "end_time": 1741814311.270736, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.36250000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4036861065767421 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814311.270736, "end_time": 1741814339.221468, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.46174704611403483 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814339.221468, "end_time": 1741814339.433444, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.48557303997517387 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814339.433444, "end_time": 1741814339.651313, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.47291666812585265 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814339.651313, "end_time": 1741814339.889056, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4982294118244952 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814339.889056, "end_time": 1741814340.123942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.48557303997517387 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814340.123942, "end_time": 1741814340.395793, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.49190122589983454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814340.395793, "end_time": 1741814369.611024, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.48557303997517387 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814369.611024, "end_time": 1741814449.22228, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.46269287071869725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814449.22228, "end_time": 1741814599.205598, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36250000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4431284533235494 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814599.205598, "end_time": 1741814599.709364, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.40283969774166767 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814599.709364, "end_time": 1741814600.148126, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.42632288906062943 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814600.148126, "end_time": 1741814600.63961, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.42632288906062943 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814600.63961, "end_time": 1741814601.065642, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4321936868903699 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814601.065642, "end_time": 1741814601.508283, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.43806448472011034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814601.508283, "end_time": 1741814664.729474, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.42632288906062943 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814664.729474, "end_time": 1741814665.058826, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.41182603770129034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814665.058826, "end_time": 1741814665.394882, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36250000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.42330206668316495 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814665.394882, "end_time": 1741814665.713218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.41182603770129034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814665.713218, "end_time": 1741814666.177885, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4175640521922277 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814666.177885, "end_time": 1741814666.666419, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4060880232103531 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814666.666419, "end_time": 1741814796.931465, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.41182603770129034 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814796.931465, "end_time": 1741814868.151856, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.33099999999999996 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4497922927195947 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814868.151856, "end_time": 1741815102.950334, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.36250000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4937849255604871 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815102.950334, "end_time": 1741815500.69951, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.5278459541040179 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815500.69951, "end_time": 1741815748.583804, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4723333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5219823175959986 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815748.583804, "end_time": 1741816508.916659, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4723333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "means": [ 0.5539086219540009 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816508.916659, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8140000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.580379874959213 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46798954652739155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07966489627546133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1907676524634683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44032828738811125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41744142835195325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7620908974955234, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.0946024136724206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816508.916659, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8140000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.580379874959213 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46798954652739155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07966489627546133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1907676524634683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44032828738811125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41744142835195325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7620908974955234, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.0946024136724206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)" }, { "id": 35916, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all xAI models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-chinese-model-have-a-higher-arena-score-than-all-xai-models-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.987503Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.783248Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35350, "title": "Will a Chinese model have a higher Arena Score than all xAI models on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.987503Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.5, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese model has a higher Arena Score than all models with xAI as their Organization at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) in the \"Overall\" category when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "A Chinese model is defined as one whose Organization is headquartered in the People's Republic of China or conducts a majority of its R&D activities in the PRC. At the time of this question, models that qualified under this definition were Yi-Lightning, from 01 AI; Qwen2.5-plus-1127, from Alibaba; and GLM-4-Plus, from Zhipu AI.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35916, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813337.630892, "end_time": 1741813518.11034, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813518.11034, "end_time": 1741813605.061556, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813605.061556, "end_time": 1741813653.256688, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.5105872768305008 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813653.256688, "end_time": 1741813661.010687, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.4155555431112294 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813661.010687, "end_time": 1741813661.32843, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3785655299448199 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813661.32843, "end_time": 1741813661.65269, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3785655299448199 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813661.65269, "end_time": 1741813661.952404, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3945708258269933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813661.952404, "end_time": 1741813662.295313, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3785655299448199 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813662.295313, "end_time": 1741813662.649632, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3785655299448199 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813662.649632, "end_time": 1741813671.072057, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3785655299448199 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.072057, "end_time": 1741813671.270971, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37045858544216426 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.270971, "end_time": 1741813671.475409, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34207842054301524 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.475409, "end_time": 1741813671.693273, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37045858544216426 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.693273, "end_time": 1741813671.908595, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34207842054301524 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.908595, "end_time": 1741813672.081499, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3278883380934407 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.081499, "end_time": 1741813675.407477, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.34207842054301524 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813675.407477, "end_time": 1741813675.61956, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2927728608934727 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813675.61956, "end_time": 1741813675.82596, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2927728608934727 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813675.82596, "end_time": 1741813676.038312, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2927728608934727 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813676.038312, "end_time": 1741813676.236479, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26710336636610565 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813676.236479, "end_time": 1741813676.467437, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2927728608934727 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813676.467437, "end_time": 1741813682.017306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2927728608934727 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.017306, "end_time": 1741813682.426291, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30625314988753854 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.426291, "end_time": 1741813682.469485, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2944752686195509 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.469485, "end_time": 1741813682.668237, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2956826132932825 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.668237, "end_time": 1741813682.696873, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.3830964323979788 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.696873, "end_time": 1741813682.923018, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3583879443971669 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.923018, "end_time": 1741813682.953873, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.297405333369873 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.953873, "end_time": 1741813683.154359, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2830331658286048 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.154359, "end_time": 1741813683.175111, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "means": [ 0.2663478712822025 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.175111, "end_time": 1741813683.369727, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "means": [ 0.2646251512056119 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.369727, "end_time": 1741813683.397329, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2882013260583766 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.397329, "end_time": 1741813683.636454, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3048866206047789 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.636454, "end_time": 1741813687.817264, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29395989321669186 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813687.817264, "end_time": 1741813741.401485, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.4076582790773749 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813741.401485, "end_time": 1741813741.57891, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3965509665701412 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813741.57891, "end_time": 1741813741.750356, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3965509665701412 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813741.750356, "end_time": 1741813741.965483, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.38691894781674757 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813741.965483, "end_time": 1741813742.181152, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3772869290633538 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813742.181152, "end_time": 1741813742.395672, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3965509665701412 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813742.395672, "end_time": 1741813803.751741, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3965509665701412 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813803.751741, "end_time": 1741813815.349319, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.255 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3698043791142441 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813815.349319, "end_time": 1741813815.582711, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3316208400332916 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813815.582711, "end_time": 1741813815.831001, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.34899244074244146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813815.831001, "end_time": 1741813816.097891, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3576782410970164 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813816.097891, "end_time": 1741813816.402811, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.34899244074244146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813816.402811, "end_time": 1741813816.6037, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3316208400332916 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813816.6037, "end_time": 1741813819.856048, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.34899244074244146 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813819.856048, "end_time": 1741813868.074278, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3242593187403259 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813868.074278, "end_time": 1741813886.757487, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.30241192949557594 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.757487, "end_time": 1741813920.554319, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.255 ], "means": [ 0.27479747240102204 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813920.554319, "end_time": 1741814128.206121, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2858950222764864 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814128.206121, "end_time": 1741814214.487103, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3174941477260558 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814214.487103, "end_time": 1741814311.616471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3012730654581106 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814311.616471, "end_time": 1741814357.046014, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.28771181062537027 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814357.046014, "end_time": 1741814357.248208, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2958148763162653 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814357.248208, "end_time": 1741814357.486616, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.30882386850603594 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814357.486616, "end_time": 1741814357.985149, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.30882386850603594 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814357.985149, "end_time": 1741814358.205982, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2958148763162653 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814358.205982, "end_time": 1741814358.408516, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.30231937241115064 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814358.408516, "end_time": 1741814364.877677, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.30231937241115064 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814364.877677, "end_time": 1741814423.053723, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.28936945216490356 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814423.053723, "end_time": 1741814434.628765, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29684487637935564 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814434.628765, "end_time": 1741814560.066098, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.27918623871973736 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814560.066098, "end_time": 1741814560.639699, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.27575930858105496 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814560.639699, "end_time": 1741814561.284124, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2675401916194184 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814561.284124, "end_time": 1741814561.761718, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25814691509183363 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814561.761718, "end_time": 1741814562.311901, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.26988851075131454 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814562.311901, "end_time": 1741814562.861746, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.26401771292157405 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814562.861746, "end_time": 1741814762.852558, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2675401916194184 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814762.852558, "end_time": 1741814763.484324, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2712652886366349 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814763.484324, "end_time": 1741814764.099011, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2827413176185095 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814764.099011, "end_time": 1741814764.703203, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2712652886366349 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814764.703203, "end_time": 1741814765.196239, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2712652886366349 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814765.196239, "end_time": 1741814765.517595, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2712652886366349 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814765.517595, "end_time": 1741814796.156843, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2712652886366349 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814796.156843, "end_time": 1741814833.158965, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.31378523469683534 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814833.158965, "end_time": 1741814859.374755, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29072469728696476 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814859.374755, "end_time": 1741814911.913914, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35096689821038823 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814911.913914, "end_time": 1741815658.493223, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.187 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.34188646504348935 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815658.493223, "end_time": 1741816750.991128, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32199726375690746 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816750.991128, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.31969060276398203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4326620733562097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6864664069476883, 0.0, 1.1066703119248278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38611797857690094, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6051339464916539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7938662847247857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.844622286161405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816750.991128, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.735, 0.265 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.31969060276398203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4326620733562097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6864664069476883, 0.0, 1.1066703119248278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38611797857690094, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6051339464916539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7938662847247857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.844622286161405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC: [China wants to dominate in AI — and some of its models are already beating their U.S. rivals](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/17/chinese-ai-models-are-popular-globally-and-are-beating-us-rivals-in-some-areas.html)" }, { "id": 35915, "title": "Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-grok-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.956500Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.697475Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35349, "title": "Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was ranked #8, specifically with the model \"Grok-2-08-13.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.956500Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"grok\" is in the number 1 Overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35915, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813319.643295, "end_time": 1741813511.420304, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813511.420304, "end_time": 1741813565.825684, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.275 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813565.825684, "end_time": 1741813648.612381, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5133771643409019 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.612381, "end_time": 1741813651.453875, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.6106530223630691 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813651.453875, "end_time": 1741813651.797273, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6712641103925561 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813651.797273, "end_time": 1741813652.090994, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6712641103925561 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813652.090994, "end_time": 1741813652.426322, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6872694062747294 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813652.426322, "end_time": 1741813652.922501, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6872694062747294 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813652.922501, "end_time": 1741813653.222023, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6872694062747294 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813653.222023, "end_time": 1741813659.642189, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6872694062747294 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.642189, "end_time": 1741813659.880518, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.6766922873170276 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.880518, "end_time": 1741813660.093666, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.6766922873170276 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.093666, "end_time": 1741813660.313152, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5915517926195805 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.313152, "end_time": 1741813660.545873, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5631716277204314 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.545873, "end_time": 1741813660.724518, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5915517926195805 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.724518, "end_time": 1741813670.782523, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5915517926195805 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813670.782523, "end_time": 1741813671.018156, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5167119211686565 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.018156, "end_time": 1741813671.214756, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5167119211686565 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.214756, "end_time": 1741813671.479164, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.49104242664128944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.479164, "end_time": 1741813671.699028, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.49104242664128944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.699028, "end_time": 1741813671.979607, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5167119211686565 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813671.979607, "end_time": 1741813672.287407, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.5167119211686565 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.287407, "end_time": 1741813672.523031, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.5363310632389436 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.523031, "end_time": 1741813672.885382, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.5009974194349809 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813672.885382, "end_time": 1741813673.129688, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.5481089445069313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813673.129688, "end_time": 1741813673.384112, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.5481089445069313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813673.384112, "end_time": 1741813673.624834, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.5481089445069313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813673.624834, "end_time": 1741813674.74141, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.5481089445069313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813674.74141, "end_time": 1741813687.350185, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.6140825697924237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813687.350185, "end_time": 1741813687.527609, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5089636086393409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813687.527609, "end_time": 1741813687.703527, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5089636086393409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813687.703527, "end_time": 1741813687.873805, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5089636086393409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813687.873805, "end_time": 1741813688.029703, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5048740336438095 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813688.029703, "end_time": 1741813688.186179, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.4987396711505122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813688.186179, "end_time": 1741813724.229626, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.5089636086393409 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813724.229626, "end_time": 1741813724.420032, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.45907676194212804 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813724.420032, "end_time": 1741813724.656912, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.45907676194212804 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813724.656912, "end_time": 1741813724.836075, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.46870878069552174 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813724.836075, "end_time": 1741813725.075848, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.45907676194212804 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813725.075848, "end_time": 1741813725.253933, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.46870878069552174 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813725.253933, "end_time": 1741813800.324242, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.45907676194212804 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813800.324242, "end_time": 1741813800.60343, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4209187747984236 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813800.60343, "end_time": 1741813800.853709, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4026680678383328 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813800.853709, "end_time": 1741813801.097473, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4209187747984236 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813801.097473, "end_time": 1741813801.338756, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.41179342131837826 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813801.338756, "end_time": 1741813801.666933, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4209187747984236 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813801.666933, "end_time": 1741813807.256078, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4209187747984236 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813807.256078, "end_time": 1741813821.893211, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4172848487671952 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813821.893211, "end_time": 1741813874.815536, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3646147613796916 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813874.815536, "end_time": 1741813883.677014, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.782 ], "means": [ 0.4310494330423279 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813883.677014, "end_time": 1741813884.151426, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.4569095754142747 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813884.151426, "end_time": 1741813884.578394, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.41099056578154786 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813884.578394, "end_time": 1741813885.233057, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.4569095754142747 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813885.233057, "end_time": 1741813885.711282, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.42629690232579015 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813885.711282, "end_time": 1741813886.149295, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.472215911958517 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.149295, "end_time": 1741813887.424471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.4569095754142747 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813887.424471, "end_time": 1741813975.390168, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.39981377760610376 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813975.390168, "end_time": 1741814105.921411, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.44974757641247165 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814105.921411, "end_time": 1741814106.160077, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4359765616485079 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814106.160077, "end_time": 1741814106.362193, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4359765616485079 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814106.362193, "end_time": 1741814106.576666, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4359765616485079 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814106.576666, "end_time": 1741814106.822672, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.42907362963790013 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814106.822672, "end_time": 1741814107.08285, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4221706976272925 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814107.08285, "end_time": 1741814121.071727, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4359765616485079 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814121.071727, "end_time": 1741814223.810646, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4328328665932452 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814223.810646, "end_time": 1741814316.151867, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.46758861811176394 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814316.151867, "end_time": 1741814363.100461, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.503331652748346 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814363.100461, "end_time": 1741814417.770861, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5337445485875704 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814417.770861, "end_time": 1741814418.434119, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4875978521250008 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814418.434119, "end_time": 1741814419.178144, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4875978521250008 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814419.178144, "end_time": 1741814419.902583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4875978521250008 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814419.902583, "end_time": 1741814420.668881, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.49361053642663055 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814420.668881, "end_time": 1741814421.345399, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5020282944489123 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814421.345399, "end_time": 1741814438.048245, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4875978521250008 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814438.048245, "end_time": 1741814490.069547, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.4125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.44795847737339095 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814490.069547, "end_time": 1741814702.214499, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4654068065745041 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814702.214499, "end_time": 1741814761.602148, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.49735763355308144 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814761.602148, "end_time": 1741814871.986172, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.47291508146245753 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814871.986172, "end_time": 1741815453.525723, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.502761214939862 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815453.525723, "end_time": 1741815511.340775, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.209 ], "centers": [ 0.4125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.47173207308621196 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815511.340775, "end_time": 1741816125.863244, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.209 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.45393189229597475 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816125.863244, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4782634653456255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22984421799326482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.98714116529552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8499500222718859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20791464384729125, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9640006878987275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3230490088069313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.763185273980395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.439213459039704, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10285533203360596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816125.863244, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.4782634653456255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22984421799326482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.98714116529552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8499500222718859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20791464384729125, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9640006878987275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3230490088069313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.763185273980395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.439213459039704, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10285533203360596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was ranked #8, specifically with the model \"Grok-2-08-13.\"" }, { "id": 35914, "title": "Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-claude-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.925232Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.635746Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35348, "title": "Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was ranked #8, specifically with the model \"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022).\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.925232Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"claude\" is in the number 1 Overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813300.060917, "end_time": 1741813505.77471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813505.77471, "end_time": 1741813536.461469, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813536.461469, "end_time": 1741813632.026552, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.1635830014623512 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813632.026552, "end_time": 1741813648.462589, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.13994175085327112 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.462589, "end_time": 1741813648.771274, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14316145592627139 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.771274, "end_time": 1741813649.149775, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12715616004409797 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.149775, "end_time": 1741813649.419581, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12715616004409797 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.419581, "end_time": 1741813649.452885, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13363927949288068 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.452885, "end_time": 1741813649.639498, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13091216356152205 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.639498, "end_time": 1741813649.780398, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13363927949288068 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.780398, "end_time": 1741813649.812281, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13091216356152205 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.812281, "end_time": 1741813650.025854, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13363927949288068 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813650.025854, "end_time": 1741813650.08951, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.11944919704330614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813650.08951, "end_time": 1741813650.20645, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.11944919704330614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813650.20645, "end_time": 1741813650.579935, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13363927949288068 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813650.579935, "end_time": 1741813658.114845, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13363927949288068 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813658.114845, "end_time": 1741813658.372125, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12500424648440997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813658.372125, "end_time": 1741813658.559996, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12500424648440997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813658.559996, "end_time": 1741813658.76141, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12500424648440997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813658.76141, "end_time": 1741813659.032804, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12500424648440997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.032804, "end_time": 1741813659.281357, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12500424648440997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.281357, "end_time": 1741813659.522261, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12500424648440997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.522261, "end_time": 1741813659.767864, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13089218682662 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.767864, "end_time": 1741813659.997306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13089218682662 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813659.997306, "end_time": 1741813660.223594, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.1426700680946076 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.223594, "end_time": 1741813660.454925, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.16622583063058277 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.454925, "end_time": 1741813660.676978, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.15444794936259518 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813660.676978, "end_time": 1741813686.961954, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.1426700680946076 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.961954, "end_time": 1741813700.39819, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13334518406058984 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813700.39819, "end_time": 1741813700.53035, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.11630286502398207 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813700.53035, "end_time": 1741813700.909335, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.11316227499108122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813700.909335, "end_time": 1741813701.023085, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1117846505739977 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.023085, "end_time": 1741813701.135815, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.10353025623768751 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.135815, "end_time": 1741813701.252467, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12279429374447495 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.252467, "end_time": 1741813701.349718, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13930308241709535 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.349718, "end_time": 1741813701.451253, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12967106366370162 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.451253, "end_time": 1741813701.553347, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12141666932739141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.553347, "end_time": 1741813701.662316, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12141666932739141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.662316, "end_time": 1741813701.782986, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12141666932739141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.782986, "end_time": 1741813701.872747, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12141666932739141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813701.872747, "end_time": 1741813765.452043, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12141666932739141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813765.452043, "end_time": 1741813765.684227, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.12663332924788295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813765.684227, "end_time": 1741813765.948541, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11750797576783756 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813765.948541, "end_time": 1741813766.262615, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11750797576783756 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813766.262615, "end_time": 1741813766.501518, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11750797576783756 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813766.501518, "end_time": 1741813766.738509, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10838262228779218 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813766.738509, "end_time": 1741813810.519584, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11750797576783756 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813810.519584, "end_time": 1741813814.658911, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13183816083434396 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813814.658911, "end_time": 1741813859.767821, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14315319853405545 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813859.767821, "end_time": 1741813860.488675, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1522014308168857 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813860.488675, "end_time": 1741813861.077086, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1522014308168857 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813861.077086, "end_time": 1741813861.878153, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.136284559419555 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813861.878153, "end_time": 1741813862.344854, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.136284559419555 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813862.344854, "end_time": 1741813862.947134, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1522014308168857 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813862.947134, "end_time": 1741813869.47428, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1522014308168857 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813869.47428, "end_time": 1741813888.139394, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14344598730793134 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813888.139394, "end_time": 1741814037.867548, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13526388719521526 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814037.867548, "end_time": 1741814123.696344, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1730131729986548 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814123.696344, "end_time": 1741814124.77565, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16776512602431118 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814124.77565, "end_time": 1741814124.972583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16940347125539737 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814124.972583, "end_time": 1741814125.160548, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16538623682942366 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814125.160548, "end_time": 1741814125.351085, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16538623682942366 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814125.351085, "end_time": 1741814125.536842, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16538623682942366 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814125.536842, "end_time": 1741814125.720377, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16538623682942366 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814125.720377, "end_time": 1741814217.759504, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16538623682942366 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814217.759504, "end_time": 1741814315.284867, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16988913857686963 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814315.284867, "end_time": 1741814356.303516, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23698194041222145 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814356.303516, "end_time": 1741814356.966043, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22625752958641052 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814356.966043, "end_time": 1741814357.714797, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22625752958641052 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814357.714797, "end_time": 1741814358.336161, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22009279540424226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814358.336161, "end_time": 1741814358.948771, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22625752958641052 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814358.948771, "end_time": 1741814359.75111, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22009279540424226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814359.75111, "end_time": 1741814366.516157, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22625752958641052 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814366.516157, "end_time": 1741814391.965571, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22309996486753475 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814391.965571, "end_time": 1741814433.810669, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.19807862864229298 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814433.810669, "end_time": 1741814596.484491, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1982991257761529 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814596.484491, "end_time": 1741814732.055706, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.095 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1844565282534717 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814732.055706, "end_time": 1741814863.200932, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17902004402425672 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814863.200932, "end_time": 1741815209.726441, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17589415715881632 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815209.726441, "end_time": 1741815848.1121, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22530360542695582 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815848.1121, "end_time": 1741815981.125242, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.088 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20506021452676126 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815981.125242, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18958402134802077 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.21572547604369705, 0.19073805166550978, 0.4683522958367005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.967042202505489, 0.0, 1.5549817417621208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 1.885625157214617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741815981.125242, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18958402134802077 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.21572547604369705, 0.19073805166550978, 0.4683522958367005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.967042202505489, 0.0, 1.5549817417621208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 1.885625157214617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was ranked #8, specifically with the model \"Claude 3.5 Sonnet (20241022).\"" }, { "id": 35913, "title": "Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-gemini-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.892766Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.567750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35347, "title": "Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the models \"Gemini-Exp-1206\" and \"Gemini-2.0-Flash-Thinking-Exp-1219.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.892766Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"gemini\" is in the number 1 Overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813282.642984, "end_time": 1741813504.897139, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813504.897139, "end_time": 1741813521.319594, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.41500000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.41500000000000004 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813521.319594, "end_time": 1741813626.922743, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5962886406362111 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813626.922743, "end_time": 1741813636.580898, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5418960146984415 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813636.580898, "end_time": 1741813636.911529, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6085113318786598 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813636.911529, "end_time": 1741813637.247732, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.576500740114313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813637.247732, "end_time": 1741813637.552599, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.576500740114313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813637.552599, "end_time": 1741813638.062672, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.576500740114313 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813638.062672, "end_time": 1741813638.2817, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5925060359964863 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813638.2817, "end_time": 1741813638.521837, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.608822917787741 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813638.521837, "end_time": 1741813638.540648, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5946328353381664 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813638.540648, "end_time": 1741813638.72172, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5858969847513092 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813638.72172, "end_time": 1741813638.915106, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5831698688199506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813638.915106, "end_time": 1741813639.122084, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5831698688199506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813639.122084, "end_time": 1741813639.333734, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5831698688199506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813639.333734, "end_time": 1741813644.868741, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5831698688199506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813644.868741, "end_time": 1741813645.080243, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4848121003126937 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.080243, "end_time": 1741813645.488241, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.587490078422162 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.488241, "end_time": 1741813645.706945, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6003248256858457 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.706945, "end_time": 1741813645.952544, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.587490078422162 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813645.952544, "end_time": 1741813646.179046, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4591426057853266 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813646.179046, "end_time": 1741813646.880843, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.587490078422162 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813646.880843, "end_time": 1741813647.101468, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.625770529646437 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813647.101468, "end_time": 1741813647.36337, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.625770529646437 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813647.36337, "end_time": 1741813647.588323, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.625770529646437 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813647.588323, "end_time": 1741813647.865116, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6139926483784495 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813647.865116, "end_time": 1741813648.066218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6139926483784495 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.066218, "end_time": 1741813675.948125, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.625770529646437 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813675.948125, "end_time": 1741813682.056763, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.5545784142760501 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.056763, "end_time": 1741813682.290112, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49229860091595223 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.290112, "end_time": 1741813682.514, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49229860091595223 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.514, "end_time": 1741813682.752332, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5025225384047809 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.752332, "end_time": 1741813682.964217, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5025225384047809 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.964217, "end_time": 1741813683.283885, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49229860091595223 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.283885, "end_time": 1741813708.585259, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.49229860091595223 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813708.585259, "end_time": 1741813708.78263, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4167260512969009 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813708.78263, "end_time": 1741813709.131159, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.43599008880368834 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.131159, "end_time": 1741813709.321079, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4263580700502946 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.321079, "end_time": 1741813709.512322, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.43599008880368834 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.512322, "end_time": 1741813709.734621, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4263580700502946 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.734621, "end_time": 1741813736.069157, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4263580700502946 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813736.069157, "end_time": 1741813736.348497, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3759207685248528 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813736.348497, "end_time": 1741813736.622526, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3759207685248528 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813736.622526, "end_time": 1741813736.83402, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3759207685248528 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813736.83402, "end_time": 1741813737.117832, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3850461220048982 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813737.117832, "end_time": 1741813737.450356, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3667954150448074 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813737.450356, "end_time": 1741813806.234873, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3759207685248528 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813806.234873, "end_time": 1741813809.47786, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3801037164705473 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813809.47786, "end_time": 1741813809.96916, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41660705570872725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813809.96916, "end_time": 1741813810.543733, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41660705570872725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813810.543733, "end_time": 1741813811.22737, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41660705570872725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813811.22737, "end_time": 1741813811.763218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41660705570872725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813811.763218, "end_time": 1741813812.325191, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41660705570872725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813812.325191, "end_time": 1741813815.251051, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41660705570872725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813815.251051, "end_time": 1741813877.096683, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4617143462006781 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813877.096683, "end_time": 1741813888.872263, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.45425796442587507 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813888.872263, "end_time": 1741813998.927529, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4683865056981603 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813998.927529, "end_time": 1741813999.188268, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4372463090250553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813999.188268, "end_time": 1741813999.412895, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4372463090250553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813999.412895, "end_time": 1741813999.654741, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4372463090250553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813999.654741, "end_time": 1741813999.8866, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4372463090250553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813999.8866, "end_time": 1741814000.038262, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4372463090250553 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814000.038262, "end_time": 1741814000.060519, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.45281293027995756 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814000.060519, "end_time": 1741814000.688141, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.44826715414468443 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814000.688141, "end_time": 1741814001.455777, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4597158622905652 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814001.455777, "end_time": 1741814002.1713, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.41829827022691907 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814002.1713, "end_time": 1741814002.908865, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.43210413424813443 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814002.908865, "end_time": 1741814003.569214, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4597158622905652 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814003.569214, "end_time": 1741814099.507274, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.45281293027995756 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814099.507274, "end_time": 1741814142.952318, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5059993826143234 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814142.952318, "end_time": 1741814223.450893, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4759486909716077 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814223.450893, "end_time": 1741814313.287654, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4536799703782278 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814313.287654, "end_time": 1741814367.583539, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.43473204704812235 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814367.583539, "end_time": 1741814433.273766, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4546061275736472 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814433.273766, "end_time": 1741814448.409026, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4446720181708051 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814448.409026, "end_time": 1741814732.665783, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.413 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4797115458552963 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814732.665783, "end_time": 1741814860.154884, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.45953561529784803 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814860.154884, "end_time": 1741815292.061484, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4419987422662483 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815292.061484, "end_time": 1741815363.435663, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.40192898973801483 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815363.435663, "end_time": 1741816136.487007, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.3989789318667352 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816136.487007, "end_time": 1741816228.280286, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.37524506368978056 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816228.280286, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45399999999999996 ], "means": [ 0.38326048450126354 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21741093226591512, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3256481231000958, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1981270302177256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3540602060194846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0258135882461514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4888150832982642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7056746709623756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6512989866061782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816228.280286, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45399999999999996 ], "means": [ 0.38326048450126354 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21741093226591512, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3256481231000958, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1981270302177256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3540602060194846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0258135882461514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4888150832982642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7056746709623756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6512989866061782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the models \"Gemini-Exp-1206\" and \"Gemini-2.0-Flash-Thinking-Exp-1219.\"" }, { "id": 35912, "title": "Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-openai-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-1st-quarter-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.567712Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.498898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35346, "title": "Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 1st Quarter of 2025?", "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the model \"ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-11-20).\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.567712Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model owned by OpenAI is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35912, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813264.830223, "end_time": 1741813465.61613, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.65 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813465.61613, "end_time": 1741813515.0202, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7250000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7250000000000001 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813515.0202, "end_time": 1741813624.177527, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7446998634437709 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813624.177527, "end_time": 1741813627.938465, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5886482549309824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813627.938465, "end_time": 1741813628.140775, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5442661280566347 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813628.140775, "end_time": 1741813628.331073, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6402979033496752 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813628.331073, "end_time": 1741813628.557964, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6082873115853283 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813628.557964, "end_time": 1741813628.775815, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6082873115853283 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813628.775815, "end_time": 1741813628.965393, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6082873115853283 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813628.965393, "end_time": 1741813630.205372, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6082873115853283 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813630.205372, "end_time": 1741813630.561477, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6626956886900042 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813630.561477, "end_time": 1741813630.870269, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6485056062404295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813630.870269, "end_time": 1741813631.195118, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6485056062404295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813631.195118, "end_time": 1741813631.672114, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6485056062404295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813631.672114, "end_time": 1741813631.969048, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6485056062404295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813631.969048, "end_time": 1741813632.23176, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6485056062404295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813632.23176, "end_time": 1741813632.45479, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6745587040921268 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813632.45479, "end_time": 1741813632.720195, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6745587040921268 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813632.720195, "end_time": 1741813632.947382, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7002281986194939 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813632.947382, "end_time": 1741813633.163804, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6745587040921268 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813633.163804, "end_time": 1741813633.404655, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6745587040921268 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813633.404655, "end_time": 1741813633.765858, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6745587040921268 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813633.765858, "end_time": 1741813634.033094, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6923294766102479 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813634.033094, "end_time": 1741813634.321813, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6923294766102479 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813634.321813, "end_time": 1741813634.571076, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6569958328062852 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813634.571076, "end_time": 1741813634.801471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6687737140742727 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813634.801471, "end_time": 1741813635.084686, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6923294766102479 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813635.084686, "end_time": 1741813656.175032, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6923294766102479 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813656.175032, "end_time": 1741813656.377058, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6830790235822362 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813656.377058, "end_time": 1741813656.576651, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6940057509703231 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813656.576651, "end_time": 1741813656.770037, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7049324783584102 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813656.770037, "end_time": 1741813656.965197, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6721522961941492 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813656.965197, "end_time": 1741813657.182174, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6830790235822362 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813657.182174, "end_time": 1741813685.944528, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6830790235822362 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813685.944528, "end_time": 1741813686.191537, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7172108161516253 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.191537, "end_time": 1741813686.431203, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7069868786627966 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.431203, "end_time": 1741813686.711002, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7069868786627966 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.711002, "end_time": 1741813686.968081, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.696762941173968 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813686.968081, "end_time": 1741813687.226793, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.696762941173968 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813687.226793, "end_time": 1741813691.567041, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7069868786627966 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813691.567041, "end_time": 1741813718.8942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6189527549560984 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813718.8942, "end_time": 1741813719.074917, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6611205105884237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.074917, "end_time": 1741813719.283103, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6611205105884237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.283103, "end_time": 1741813719.474822, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6519951571083782 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.474822, "end_time": 1741813719.659365, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6611205105884237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.659365, "end_time": 1741813719.856452, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6611205105884237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813719.856452, "end_time": 1741813785.466502, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6611205105884237 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813785.466502, "end_time": 1741813785.978969, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6852461009559088 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813785.978969, "end_time": 1741813786.489849, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6678745002467589 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813786.489849, "end_time": 1741813786.980441, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6678745002467589 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813786.980441, "end_time": 1741813787.465141, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6852461009559088 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813787.465141, "end_time": 1741813788.052128, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6678745002467589 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813788.052128, "end_time": 1741813819.833942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6678745002467589 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813819.833942, "end_time": 1741813823.526666, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6815075409215735 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813823.526666, "end_time": 1741813886.008797, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6207834762619677 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.008797, "end_time": 1741813886.19768, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5793364460791129 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.19768, "end_time": 1741813886.389962, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6176022874397185 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.389962, "end_time": 1741813886.625436, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6252554557118397 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.625436, "end_time": 1741813886.878154, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6252554557118397 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813886.878154, "end_time": 1741813887.100632, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6252554557118397 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813887.100632, "end_time": 1741813889.600156, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6252554557118397 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813889.600156, "end_time": 1741813893.399453, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5920147690714539 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813893.399453, "end_time": 1741814059.361012, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5479516954258725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814059.361012, "end_time": 1741814059.896777, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5758462096125477 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814059.896777, "end_time": 1741814060.645096, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5758462096125477 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814060.645096, "end_time": 1741814061.229931, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5799879688189122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814061.229931, "end_time": 1741814061.798117, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.589652073633763 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814061.798117, "end_time": 1741814062.451878, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.56894327760194 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814062.451878, "end_time": 1741814124.04984, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5758462096125477 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814124.04984, "end_time": 1741814152.345789, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3125 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.540582094305707 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814152.345789, "end_time": 1741814226.057499, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3125 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5418072689219177 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814226.057499, "end_time": 1741814254.315671, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.49854686995914993 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814254.315671, "end_time": 1741814305.684342, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5184531825507676 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814305.684342, "end_time": 1741814367.103409, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3125 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5042087507267461 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814367.103409, "end_time": 1741814417.807015, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.48023138491513434 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814417.807015, "end_time": 1741814629.808485, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5054520948753379 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814629.808485, "end_time": 1741814795.383432, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.47677289286619445 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814795.383432, "end_time": 1741814868.640711, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.4744894429668515 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814868.640711, "end_time": 1741815289.709707, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.45030861813372725 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815289.709707, "end_time": 1741815940.427633, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28300000000000003 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4608387285506119 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815940.427633, "end_time": 1741815964.197168, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.4856280052029994 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815964.197168, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.47162067526495394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.489237184176523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6864664069476883, 0.3058323220141224, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6843868615011792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1771244980409894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30308967211773963, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6157778417535598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5889546570507536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09690098475632083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741815964.197168, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.544, 0.456 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.456 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.47162067526495394 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.489237184176523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6864664069476883, 0.3058323220141224, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6843868615011792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1771244980409894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30308967211773963, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6157778417535598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5889546570507536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09690098475632083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 25, 2024, this was tied for first, specifically with the model \"ChatGPT-4o-latest (2024-11-20).\"" }, { "id": 35911, "title": "Will the US Citizenship and Immigration Services' EB-5 page still be online on March 31, 2025?", "url_title": "EB-5 page still online?", "slug": "eb-5-page-still-online", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.536778Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.462675Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35345, "title": "Will the US Citizenship and Immigration Services' EB-5 page still be online on March 31, 2025?", "description": "[Trump to Axe EB-5 Program and Introduce $5m \"Gold Card\"](https://www.imidaily.com/north-america/trump-to-axe-eb-5-program-and-introduce-5m-gold-card/)", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.536778Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the USCIS EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program information portal is at [this location](https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/permanent-workers/eb-5-immigrant-investor-program) when attempted to be accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "If the URL has changed, it will still count as long as the specific location listed above redirects to the new location. If there are issues accessing the page unambiguously related to uscis.gov itself being temporarily offline (for example 404 due to maintenance), then resolution will wait until uscis.gov is back online, and then it will be determined whether the specific location listed in the resolution criteria still contains the USCIS EB-5 Immigrant Investor Program information portal", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35911, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813242.697015, "end_time": 1741813435.34413, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.95 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813435.34413, "end_time": 1741813558.763611, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.95 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813558.763611, "end_time": 1741813608.360892, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9047233284588293 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813608.360892, "end_time": 1741813617.961915, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.935 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9159807142860374 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813617.961915, "end_time": 1741813618.175838, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9268704889570806 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813618.175838, "end_time": 1741813618.34754, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.9108651930749072 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813618.34754, "end_time": 1741813618.606115, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.9108651930749072 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813618.606115, "end_time": 1741813618.86168, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.9108651930749072 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813618.86168, "end_time": 1741813619.068827, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9268704889570806 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813619.068827, "end_time": 1741813621.050789, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.9108651930749072 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.050789, "end_time": 1741813621.31563, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8935915509140633 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.31563, "end_time": 1741813621.535508, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.9077816333636377 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.535508, "end_time": 1741813621.745644, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.9077816333636377 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.745644, "end_time": 1741813621.959968, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8935915509140633 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.959968, "end_time": 1741813622.14718, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8935915509140633 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.14718, "end_time": 1741813622.193594, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8824018201377832 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.193594, "end_time": 1741813622.367875, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8824018201377832 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.367875, "end_time": 1741813622.803387, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8695670728740997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.803387, "end_time": 1741813623.044893, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8567323256104161 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813623.044893, "end_time": 1741813623.370181, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8695670728740997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813623.370181, "end_time": 1741813623.64126, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8824018201377832 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813623.64126, "end_time": 1741813624.817698, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8695670728740997 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813624.817698, "end_time": 1741813625.133897, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8531800183846482 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813625.133897, "end_time": 1741813625.423004, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8531800183846482 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813625.423004, "end_time": 1741813625.729452, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8649578996526357 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813625.729452, "end_time": 1741813626.161262, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8649578996526357 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813626.161262, "end_time": 1741813626.638496, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8649578996526357 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813626.638496, "end_time": 1741813636.160279, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8649578996526357 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813636.160279, "end_time": 1741813636.395572, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8835425365927556 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813636.395572, "end_time": 1741813636.630447, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8835425365927556 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813636.630447, "end_time": 1741813636.844471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8726158092046685 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813636.844471, "end_time": 1741813637.026653, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8835425365927556 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813637.026653, "end_time": 1741813637.208168, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8726158092046685 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813637.208168, "end_time": 1741813647.903489, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8835425365927556 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813647.903489, "end_time": 1741813648.142492, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8869077381347625 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.142492, "end_time": 1741813648.391057, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.935 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8971316756235911 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.391057, "end_time": 1741813648.669637, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8869077381347625 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.669637, "end_time": 1741813648.973637, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8869077381347625 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813648.973637, "end_time": 1741813649.252169, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8869077381347625 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813649.252169, "end_time": 1741813670.164328, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8869077381347625 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813670.164328, "end_time": 1741813728.776249, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8894298363709688 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813728.776249, "end_time": 1741813728.960817, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9004843194401506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813728.960817, "end_time": 1741813729.126332, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9004843194401506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813729.126332, "end_time": 1741813729.310405, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9004843194401506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813729.310405, "end_time": 1741813729.501473, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9004843194401506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813729.501473, "end_time": 1741813729.702341, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9004843194401506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813729.702341, "end_time": 1741813731.334035, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9004843194401506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813731.334035, "end_time": 1741813731.803282, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.883028584691701 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813731.803282, "end_time": 1741813732.266885, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.883028584691701 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813732.266885, "end_time": 1741813732.872371, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.883028584691701 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813732.872371, "end_time": 1741813733.383274, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.883028584691701 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813733.383274, "end_time": 1741813733.910041, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.883028584691701 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813733.910041, "end_time": 1741813808.46235, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.883028584691701 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813808.46235, "end_time": 1741813815.746593, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8858458825578012 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813815.746593, "end_time": 1741813816.250552, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8960572109271683 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813816.250552, "end_time": 1741813816.69397, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8960572109271683 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813816.69397, "end_time": 1741813817.214603, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8960572109271683 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813817.214603, "end_time": 1741813817.786962, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.888098775228503 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813817.786962, "end_time": 1741813818.382015, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "means": [ 0.891282149507969 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813818.382015, "end_time": 1741813819.580025, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8960572109271683 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813819.580025, "end_time": 1741813819.812948, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8813543709476436 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813819.812948, "end_time": 1741813819.981829, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8737012026755224 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813819.981829, "end_time": 1741813820.195721, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8737012026755224 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813820.195721, "end_time": 1741813820.417763, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8737012026755224 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813820.417763, "end_time": 1741813820.635559, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8737012026755224 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813820.635559, "end_time": 1741813823.374718, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8737012026755224 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813823.374718, "end_time": 1741813883.289735, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8775820857294729 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813883.289735, "end_time": 1741813890.143219, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.785 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8643806090686081 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813890.143219, "end_time": 1741814071.696953, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.785 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8527311369203229 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814071.696953, "end_time": 1741814130.856896, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.785 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "means": [ 0.8597303461259957 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814130.856896, "end_time": 1741814211.39277, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "means": [ 0.8480573324066106 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814211.39277, "end_time": 1741814214.816123, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8609595754903476 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814214.816123, "end_time": 1741814310.103462, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.785 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "means": [ 0.8657730522795679 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814310.103462, "end_time": 1741814367.942386, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.785 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "means": [ 0.8698889689045949 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814367.942386, "end_time": 1741814412.991315, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8792952822544583 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814412.991315, "end_time": 1741814599.784102, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8816713616635522 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814599.784102, "end_time": 1741814684.325008, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "means": [ 0.8781156680627737 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814684.325008, "end_time": 1741814689.372792, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8860175174384819 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814689.372792, "end_time": 1741814857.761128, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.785 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8726590012170233 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814857.761128, "end_time": 1741815298.076426, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.935 ], "means": [ 0.8755469513156471 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815298.076426, "end_time": 1741815892.525407, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "means": [ 0.8780815313718457 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815892.525407, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8273333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.872916545127671 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.7620908974955233, 0.3415440718595426, 0.5162063416887812, 0.0, 0.17780461762748717, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7501556265965725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.094576181155757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.9664981542310966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741815892.525407, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8273333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.872916545127671 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.7620908974955233, 0.3415440718595426, 0.5162063416887812, 0.0, 0.17780461762748717, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7501556265965725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.094576181155757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 1.9664981542310966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Trump to Axe EB-5 Program and Introduce $5m \"Gold Card\"](https://www.imidaily.com/north-america/trump-to-axe-eb-5-program-and-introduce-5m-gold-card/)" }, { "id": 35910, "title": "Will Canada revoke Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-canada-revoke-elon-musks-citizenship-before-april-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.505776Z", "published_at": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:00:00.401559Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35344, "title": "Will Canada revoke Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025?", "description": "NY Times: [Over 230,000 Sign Petition Calling for Musk’s Canadian Citizenship to Be Revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/us/politics/elon-musk-canada-citizenship.html) \"It is unclear whether Mr. Musk has had any involvement in Mr. Trump's approach to relations with Canada, though his posts on social media have repeatedly made jabs at the country’s sovereignty. Mr. Musk, who was born in South Africa, holds Canadian citizenship through his mother, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of the businessman. Mr. Musk also holds U.S. citizenship, which he received in 2002, according to the biography.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.505776Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Canada's government officially revokes Elon Musk's citizenship before April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35910, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741813221.7167, "end_time": 1741813399.374543, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.03 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813399.374543, "end_time": 1741813605.380714, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.0155 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0155 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813605.380714, "end_time": 1741813607.128579, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.011389515257263174 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813607.128579, "end_time": 1741813607.324657, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.02574555578613933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813607.324657, "end_time": 1741813607.51511, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.06292727112727273 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813607.51511, "end_time": 1741813607.725046, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.02574555578613933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813607.725046, "end_time": 1741813607.948489, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.06292727112727273 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813607.948489, "end_time": 1741813608.276128, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.02574555578613933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813608.276128, "end_time": 1741813611.476792, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.02574555578613933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813611.476792, "end_time": 1741813611.639096, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03350954690814951 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813611.639096, "end_time": 1741813611.69017, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0381895646882335 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813611.69017, "end_time": 1741813611.912736, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.06656972958738255 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813611.912736, "end_time": 1741813612.172602, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.032513531708403695 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813612.172602, "end_time": 1741813612.400829, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0381895646882335 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813612.400829, "end_time": 1741813612.413667, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04122124373424563 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813612.413667, "end_time": 1741813612.746679, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04122124373424563 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813612.746679, "end_time": 1741813612.752106, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04122124373424563 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813612.752106, "end_time": 1741813612.804431, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04122124373424563 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813612.804431, "end_time": 1741813613.082852, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05506702798180638 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.082852, "end_time": 1741813613.200326, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05506702798180638 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.200326, "end_time": 1741813613.321783, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05310057138997646 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.321783, "end_time": 1741813613.574463, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05506702798180638 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.574463, "end_time": 1741813613.657118, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04328914671381879 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.657118, "end_time": 1741813613.818108, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04328914671381879 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.818108, "end_time": 1741813613.997162, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05506702798180638 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813613.997162, "end_time": 1741813614.075603, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05310057138997646 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813614.075603, "end_time": 1741813614.436812, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05506702798180638 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813614.436812, "end_time": 1741813619.903266, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05310057138997646 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813619.903266, "end_time": 1741813620.159836, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04368160751299533 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813620.159836, "end_time": 1741813620.332368, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04368160751299533 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813620.332368, "end_time": 1741813620.54316, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04586695299061273 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813620.54316, "end_time": 1741813620.750878, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04368160751299533 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813620.750878, "end_time": 1741813620.96052, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04368160751299533 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813620.96052, "end_time": 1741813621.588445, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04368160751299533 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.588445, "end_time": 1741813621.85915, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04497358450933573 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813621.85915, "end_time": 1741813622.110366, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03679443451827281 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.110366, "end_time": 1741813622.466558, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04497358450933573 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.466558, "end_time": 1741813622.770934, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03679443451827281 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813622.770934, "end_time": 1741813623.010005, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03883922201603854 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813623.010005, "end_time": 1741813679.739101, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03883922201603854 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813679.739101, "end_time": 1741813680.418391, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.06988529473309933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813680.418391, "end_time": 1741813681.081374, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.06988529473309933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813681.081374, "end_time": 1741813681.83055, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.05062125722631189 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813681.83055, "end_time": 1741813682.55833, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.05062125722631189 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813682.55833, "end_time": 1741813683.012683, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.06988529473309933 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.012683, "end_time": 1741813683.281231, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.066256087863211 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813683.281231, "end_time": 1741813709.207983, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.07000982659423464 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.207983, "end_time": 1741813709.403472, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.07869391991209582 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.403472, "end_time": 1741813709.621059, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.07174527962843588 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.621059, "end_time": 1741813709.812855, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.07869391991209582 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813709.812855, "end_time": 1741813710.04619, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.07348243969935085 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813710.04619, "end_time": 1741813710.310422, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.07869391991209582 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813710.310422, "end_time": 1741813737.565617, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.07869391991209582 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813737.565617, "end_time": 1741813737.774967, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.06729055546271104 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813737.774967, "end_time": 1741813737.972619, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.06729055546271104 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813737.972619, "end_time": 1741813738.156418, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.06729055546271104 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813738.156418, "end_time": 1741813738.354224, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.06729055546271104 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813738.354224, "end_time": 1741813738.535982, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.06729055546271104 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813738.535982, "end_time": 1741813756.098864, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.06729055546271104 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813756.098864, "end_time": 1741813756.722239, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.06453843998582717 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813756.722239, "end_time": 1741813757.431199, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.05976337856662796 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813757.431199, "end_time": 1741813758.163439, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.05976337856662796 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813758.163439, "end_time": 1741813758.782415, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.05976337856662796 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813758.782415, "end_time": 1741813759.372691, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.06135506570636103 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813759.372691, "end_time": 1741813805.271159, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.05976337856662796 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813805.271159, "end_time": 1741813826.621331, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.05214642836743458 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813826.621331, "end_time": 1741813890.850655, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04887830558994506 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813890.850655, "end_time": 1741813929.554503, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.049038250383349614 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741813929.554503, "end_time": 1741814119.518433, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.04364868261916278 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814119.518433, "end_time": 1741814219.381557, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03914286107895065 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814219.381557, "end_time": 1741814285.615863, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03795346699526838 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814285.615863, "end_time": 1741814314.05956, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03327649880113098 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814314.05956, "end_time": 1741814365.329908, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.03040663024512037 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814365.329908, "end_time": 1741814420.696072, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.027952657738640405 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814420.696072, "end_time": 1741814561.417688, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.030541367520631094 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814561.417688, "end_time": 1741814592.950218, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.03277444582343994 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814592.950218, "end_time": 1741814730.432178, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.033697915760070675 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814730.432178, "end_time": 1741814864.145051, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.032192179194392684 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741814864.145051, "end_time": 1741815392.640648, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.029801754100575895 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741815392.640648, "end_time": 1741816174.822602, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.040999999999999995 ], "means": [ 0.02866079626404315 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741816174.822602, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.030872623545887302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43159266452876244, 3.8216984636022877, 1.0324753569746579, 0.6195764615073515, 0.6896218051583209, 2.736425552192485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741816174.822602, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.030872623545887302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43159266452876244, 3.8216984636022877, 1.0324753569746579, 0.6195764615073515, 0.6896218051583209, 2.736425552192485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NY Times: [Over 230,000 Sign Petition Calling for Musk’s Canadian Citizenship to Be Revoked](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/us/politics/elon-musk-canada-citizenship.html) \"It is unclear whether Mr. Musk has had any involvement in Mr. Trump's approach to relations with Canada, though his posts on social media have repeatedly made jabs at the country’s sovereignty. Mr. Musk, who was born in South Africa, holds Canadian citizenship through his mother, according to Walter Isaacson’s biography of the businessman. Mr. Musk also holds U.S. citizenship, which he received in 2002, according to the biography.\"" }, { "id": 35907, "title": "Will Jumaane Williams run for mayor of New York City?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jumaane-williams-run-for-mayor-of-new-york-city", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.135737Z", "published_at": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-11T22:00:00.538352Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35341, "title": "Will Jumaane Williams run for mayor of New York City?", "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Williams is a progressive leader from Brooklyn who has criticized the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy. He has pledged to rank Mr. Lander either first or second on his ballot.\n\nBut if Mr. Adams were to resign, Mr. Williams — who ran unsuccessfully for governor and lieutenant governor — would become acting mayor. He would then likely run for a full term.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:11.135737Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Who’s Running for Mayor of New York City?](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/nyregion/nyc-mayor-candidates-2025.html) tracker page maintained by the New York Times is updated before April 1, 2025 to classify Jumaane Williams as running for mayor of New York City. If that tracker page does not have Cuomo listed as Running, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Question resolves based on the value shown at the specific webpage listed. Should the webpage be offline on April 1, 2025, resolution will wait until the end of this tournament's resolutions, at which time if the page is still down the question will be **annulled**.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35907, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741726966.693255, "end_time": 1741727086.035351, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727086.035351, "end_time": 1741727129.053485, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.15 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727129.053485, "end_time": 1741727177.030562, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.21791500731175598 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727177.030562, "end_time": 1741727254.456319, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.19266304261918896 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727254.456319, "end_time": 1741727264.519086, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1950116460942845 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727264.519086, "end_time": 1741727264.951564, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18223726670890517 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727264.951564, "end_time": 1741727265.312973, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.23899759650720329 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727265.312973, "end_time": 1741727265.660641, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18223726670890517 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727265.660641, "end_time": 1741727266.345376, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18223726670890517 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727266.345376, "end_time": 1741727266.765306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18223726670890517 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727266.765306, "end_time": 1741727270.597445, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18223726670890517 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727270.597445, "end_time": 1741727270.931089, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14829262876792296 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727270.931089, "end_time": 1741727271.354031, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14829262876792296 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727271.354031, "end_time": 1741727271.449246, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.17225057561693374 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727271.449246, "end_time": 1741727271.914343, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1643847492496141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727271.914343, "end_time": 1741727271.949842, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1643847492496141 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727271.949842, "end_time": 1741727272.35457, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14869481308095858 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727272.35457, "end_time": 1741727272.452521, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14476189989729873 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727272.452521, "end_time": 1741727272.733974, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14869481308095858 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727272.733974, "end_time": 1741727273.387105, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14476189989729873 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727273.387105, "end_time": 1741727274.102846, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.17225057561693374 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727274.102846, "end_time": 1741727275.005929, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.17225057561693374 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727275.005929, "end_time": 1741727281.473784, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.17225057561693374 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727281.473784, "end_time": 1741727281.901734, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1564613287489617 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727281.901734, "end_time": 1741727282.162747, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1564613287489617 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727282.162747, "end_time": 1741727282.70746, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1564613287489617 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727282.70746, "end_time": 1741727282.876952, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17831478352513577 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727282.876952, "end_time": 1741727283.068996, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1564613287489617 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727283.068996, "end_time": 1741727286.397039, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1564613287489617 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727286.397039, "end_time": 1741727287.19792, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16536406181330723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727287.19792, "end_time": 1741727287.472152, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16536406181330723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727287.472152, "end_time": 1741727287.990471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16536406181330723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727287.990471, "end_time": 1741727288.45411, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16536406181330723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727288.45411, "end_time": 1741727288.896287, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16536406181330723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727288.896287, "end_time": 1741727291.212421, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.16536406181330723 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727291.212421, "end_time": 1741727311.089913, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1624043231830257 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727311.089913, "end_time": 1741727370.711794, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15101509302846367 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727370.711794, "end_time": 1741727371.043689, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14215295476615764 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727371.043689, "end_time": 1741727371.342656, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14215295476615764 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727371.342656, "end_time": 1741727371.689656, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14215295476615764 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727371.689656, "end_time": 1741727372.09467, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.13346715441158272 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727372.09467, "end_time": 1741727372.501097, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14215295476615764 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727372.501097, "end_time": 1741727380.219383, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.14215295476615764 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727380.219383, "end_time": 1741727398.637266, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2115166211138843 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727398.637266, "end_time": 1741727413.325394, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.21191189733749577 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727413.325394, "end_time": 1741727415.314666, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.20243545397009297 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727415.314666, "end_time": 1741727415.655048, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.17994073062458216 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727415.655048, "end_time": 1741727416.021539, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.22421138307382957 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727416.021539, "end_time": 1741727416.419733, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.19469761477433128 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727416.419733, "end_time": 1741727416.803883, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.18731917269945672 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727416.803883, "end_time": 1741727417.170419, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.20207605684920585 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727417.170419, "end_time": 1741727419.741239, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.19469761477433128 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727419.741239, "end_time": 1741727420.039421, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18119448032415428 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727420.039421, "end_time": 1741727420.481561, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18119448032415428 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727420.481561, "end_time": 1741727420.808235, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18119448032415428 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727420.808235, "end_time": 1741727421.195311, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18119448032415428 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727421.195311, "end_time": 1741727421.553306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1740648739014605 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727421.553306, "end_time": 1741727464.512498, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.18119448032415428 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727464.512498, "end_time": 1741727465.698988, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1837907447990844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727465.698988, "end_time": 1741727466.718657, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1837907447990844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727466.718657, "end_time": 1741727468.201498, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1837907447990844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727468.201498, "end_time": 1741727469.087639, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.19759660882029978 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727469.087639, "end_time": 1741727470.078155, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1837907447990844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727470.078155, "end_time": 1741727480.745744, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1837907447990844 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727480.745744, "end_time": 1741727528.013389, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.20176241280833143 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727528.013389, "end_time": 1741727753.547604, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.18852414847397342 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727753.547604, "end_time": 1741727970.251232, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2026329467653047 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727970.251232, "end_time": 1741727970.903597, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.19614358424465836 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727970.903597, "end_time": 1741727971.240709, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.20230831842682664 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727971.240709, "end_time": 1741727971.511019, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.19614358424465836 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727971.511019, "end_time": 1741727972.20414, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.19614358424465836 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727972.20414, "end_time": 1741727972.515789, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.1899788500624901 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741727972.515789, "end_time": 1741728165.455674, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.19614358424465836 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728165.455674, "end_time": 1741728166.305445, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.1905946481524826 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728166.305445, "end_time": 1741728167.509352, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.20262001675574212 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728167.509352, "end_time": 1741728168.826321, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.1905946481524826 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728168.826321, "end_time": 1741728170.034121, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.1905946481524826 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728170.034121, "end_time": 1741728171.455817, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.19660733245411235 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728171.455817, "end_time": 1741728174.551277, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.1905946481524826 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728174.551277, "end_time": 1741728309.410377, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.1776090717453926 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728309.410377, "end_time": 1741728520.92556, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.19165469014307668 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728520.92556, "end_time": 1741728741.561398, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.17519000040837646 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741728741.561398, "end_time": 1741729438.884721, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.214 ], "means": [ 0.16692477707284822 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741729438.884721, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15971599126088737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 3.084998515983978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9476712896751207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5095294030847528, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2762634963484665, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741729438.884721, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.15971599126088737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 3.084998515983978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9476712896751207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5095294030847528, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2762634963484665, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the NYT, \"Mr. Williams is a progressive leader from Brooklyn who has criticized the mayor’s aggressive policing strategy. He has pledged to rank Mr. Lander either first or second on his ballot.\n\nBut if Mr. Adams were to resign, Mr. Williams — who ran unsuccessfully for governor and lieutenant governor — would become acting mayor. He would then likely run for a full term.\"" }, { "id": 35897, "title": "Will Javier Milei have a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum on March 30, 2025?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-javier-milei-have-a-higher-approval-rating-than-claudia-sheinbaum-on-march-30-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:10.226051Z", "published_at": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-10T12:00:00.997469Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35331, "title": "Will Javier Milei have a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum on March 30, 2025?", "description": "At the time of this question, Sheinbaum is at 66% as compared with Milei at 65%.", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:10.226051Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-10T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Javier Melei has a higher approval rating than Claudia Sheinbaum at [Morning Consult](https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/global-leader-approval) when checked my Metaculus on or after March 30, 2025. A tie or a lead by Sheinbaum resolves the question as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741604583.388327, "end_time": 1741604684.196572, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604684.196572, "end_time": 1741604783.925539, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.325 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604783.925539, "end_time": 1741604784.147467, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.20886984882025889 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604784.147467, "end_time": 1741604784.324241, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.20886984882025889 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604784.324241, "end_time": 1741604784.543297, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.20886984882025889 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604784.543297, "end_time": 1741604784.752602, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.20886984882025889 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604784.752602, "end_time": 1741604785.007597, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.20886984882025889 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604785.007597, "end_time": 1741604844.410495, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.20886984882025889 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604844.410495, "end_time": 1741604844.755798, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.3728896059158217 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604844.755798, "end_time": 1741604845.121987, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.22416274455128804 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.121987, "end_time": 1741604845.146651, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.3914804635863883 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.146651, "end_time": 1741604845.353232, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.5222499846653519 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.353232, "end_time": 1741604845.477059, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.490239392901005 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.477059, "end_time": 1741604845.556415, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.34619172996144415 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.556415, "end_time": 1741604845.782473, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.37648106585564745 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.782473, "end_time": 1741604845.841419, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.21642810703391327 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604845.841419, "end_time": 1741604846.002222, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2357988846821093 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604846.002222, "end_time": 1741604846.213764, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2290679211500641 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604846.213764, "end_time": 1741604846.219682, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.3891208799717983 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604846.219682, "end_time": 1741604851.155128, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.36219702584361757 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604851.155128, "end_time": 1741604851.373682, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3303553248972581 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604851.373682, "end_time": 1741604851.374929, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.4438759844938543 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604851.374929, "end_time": 1741604851.580911, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.43261324105537585 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604851.580911, "end_time": 1741604851.79417, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3413711992055647 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604851.79417, "end_time": 1741604852.020141, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3413711992055647 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604852.020141, "end_time": 1741604852.230383, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3413711992055647 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604852.230383, "end_time": 1741604867.343949, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3413711992055647 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604867.343949, "end_time": 1741604867.751888, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.437626829174305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604867.751888, "end_time": 1741604868.136464, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.42584894790631744 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604868.136464, "end_time": 1741604868.512567, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3080701352264415 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604868.512567, "end_time": 1741604868.884452, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.437626829174305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604868.884452, "end_time": 1741604869.357402, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3316258977624167 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604869.357402, "end_time": 1741604875.4692, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.42584894790631744 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604875.4692, "end_time": 1741604889.318163, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.37649315021314533 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604889.318163, "end_time": 1741604895.08543, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.38129980146874715 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604895.08543, "end_time": 1741604897.172865, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.31244535365524717 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604897.172865, "end_time": 1741604945.13553, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.310173988629481 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604945.13553, "end_time": 1741604945.352473, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.31709240430314817 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604945.352473, "end_time": 1741604945.563646, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.29972080359399833 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604945.563646, "end_time": 1741604945.788805, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2910350032394234 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604945.788805, "end_time": 1741604946.005627, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.29972080359399833 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604946.005627, "end_time": 1741604946.23357, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3084066039485733 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604946.23357, "end_time": 1741604962.107246, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.29972080359399833 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604962.107246, "end_time": 1741604989.973723, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.32300750499830694 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604989.973723, "end_time": 1741604990.26946, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2954701229199958 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604990.26946, "end_time": 1741604990.543504, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2875116872213305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604990.543504, "end_time": 1741604990.833676, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3034285586186612 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604990.833676, "end_time": 1741604991.141049, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.27955325152266514 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604991.141049, "end_time": 1741604991.431719, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3034285586186612 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741604991.431719, "end_time": 1741605017.633413, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2954701229199958 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605017.633413, "end_time": 1741605297.842807, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2808571446066596 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605297.842807, "end_time": 1741605335.435236, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2541682653005105 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605335.435236, "end_time": 1741605420.085433, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2607035099020441 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605420.085433, "end_time": 1741605420.39539, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2523228658688629 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605420.39539, "end_time": 1741605420.640038, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.3075463219537244 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605420.640038, "end_time": 1741605420.935306, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26612872989007824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605420.935306, "end_time": 1741605421.261589, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26612872989007824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605421.261589, "end_time": 1741605421.570514, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26612872989007824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605421.570514, "end_time": 1741605549.945476, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26612872989007824 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605549.945476, "end_time": 1741605550.146758, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2706643576346459 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605550.146758, "end_time": 1741605550.355812, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.25057818550477734 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605550.355812, "end_time": 1741605550.758987, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2706643576346459 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605550.758987, "end_time": 1741605550.982108, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2840551390545583 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605550.982108, "end_time": 1741605551.19279, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.26664712320867223 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605551.19279, "end_time": 1741605586.149708, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2706643576346459 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605586.149708, "end_time": 1741605880.06182, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.2861887220295674 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605880.06182, "end_time": 1741605880.385889, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29426491465130944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605880.385889, "end_time": 1741605880.683718, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29426491465130944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605880.683718, "end_time": 1741605880.936835, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29426491465130944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605880.936835, "end_time": 1741605881.277458, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2879367287266488 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605881.277458, "end_time": 1741605881.597733, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29426491465130944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605881.597733, "end_time": 1741605889.927005, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.29426491465130944 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605889.927005, "end_time": 1741605954.378321, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3023697012036458 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605954.378321, "end_time": 1741605954.586748, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.2720213143909628 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605954.586748, "end_time": 1741605954.780451, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.27803399869259254 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605954.780451, "end_time": 1741605955.005938, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.27803399869259254 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605955.005938, "end_time": 1741605955.226973, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.30208473589911156 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605955.226973, "end_time": 1741605955.473159, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.27803399869259254 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741605955.473159, "end_time": 1741606247.399018, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.27803399869259254 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741606247.399018, "end_time": 1741606440.010698, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.25172883242634164 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741606440.010698, "end_time": 1741606693.58086, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.22398796155954764 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741606693.58086, "end_time": 1741606858.597023, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2183384694999938 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741606858.597023, "end_time": 1741606865.635924, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.17366666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.19983394710577054 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741606865.635924, "end_time": 1741607036.304982, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.22139478399237628 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741607036.304982, "end_time": 1741607893.138712, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.24026033295341545 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741607893.138712, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.23610668269969792 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190556409139295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31224601647824046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.224156646299226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1564829236529564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 1.906947004393443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10162915758592383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741607893.138712, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.23610668269969792 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190556409139295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31224601647824046, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.224156646299226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1564829236529564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 1.906947004393443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10162915758592383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Sheinbaum is at 66% as compared with Milei at 65%." }, { "id": 35889, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-new-world-record-in-the-2025-world-figure-skating-championships", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:09.688410Z", "published_at": "2025-03-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-08T17:00:00.304185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32627, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q1 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/hires-q1.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-01-20T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-04-01T18:43:55Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-05T18:44:23.854392Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T22:10:14.704345Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35323, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking.", "created_at": "2025-03-08T04:57:09.688410Z", "open_time": "2025-03-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships, there is a new world record in any category (men's singles, women's singles, pairs, ice dance), for any segment, on any of the possible scores:\n\n* TES – Technical element score\n* PCS – Program component score\n* TSS – Total segment score\n* Combine Total TSS across segments.", "fine_print": "* If at least half of the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships events do not take place before April 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* In case a performance setting a new record is announced, but has not been officially verified (in case of potential disputes), it will count for the purposes of this question if it has not been cancelled as of April 7, 2025.\n* The [current world records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_scores_in_figure_skating) are presented below:\n\n| Category | Segment | Score type | Score |\n| --------------- | -------------- | ---------- | ------ |\n| Men's singles | Combined total | TSS | 335.30 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TSS | 113.97 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TES | 65.98 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | PCS | 48.47 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TSS | 227.79 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TES | 137.18 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | PCS | 97.22 |\n| Women's singles | Combined total | TSS | 272.71 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TSS | 87.52 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TES | 49.97 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | PCS | 37.56 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TSS | 185.29 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TES | 109.02 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | PCS | 76.27 |\n| Pairs | Combined total | TSS | 239.88 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TSS | 84.41 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TES | 46.04 |\n| Pairs | Short program | PCS | 38.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TSS | 157.46 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TES | 81.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | PCS | 76.99 |\n| Ice dance | Combined total | TSS | 232.32 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TSS | 93.91 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TES | 55.16 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | PCS | 39.57 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TSS | 138.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TES | 79.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | PCS | 59.70 |\n\n", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35889, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741449645.567633, "end_time": 1741449726.702733, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.65 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741449726.702733, "end_time": 1741449944.941035, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.575 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741449944.941035, "end_time": 1741450006.693833, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5666193044415219 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450006.693833, "end_time": 1741450006.924598, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5790308196429657 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450006.924598, "end_time": 1741450007.143765, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.4860765312901321 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450007.143765, "end_time": 1741450007.384586, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5046673889606988 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450007.384586, "end_time": 1741450007.63157, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5046673889606988 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450007.63157, "end_time": 1741450007.805931, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5046673889606988 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450007.805931, "end_time": 1741450007.926512, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.455157442487915 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450007.926512, "end_time": 1741450008.121382, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.4585229242539376 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450008.121382, "end_time": 1741450008.778707, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.455157442487915 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450008.778707, "end_time": 1741450009.075943, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.455157442487915 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450009.075943, "end_time": 1741450009.506513, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.455157442487915 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450009.506513, "end_time": 1741450009.846094, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.4711627383700885 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450009.846094, "end_time": 1741450011.748141, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.455157442487915 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450011.748141, "end_time": 1741450012.7113, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4111235044565425 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450012.7113, "end_time": 1741450013.502346, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4460023140440484 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450013.502346, "end_time": 1741450013.820237, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.38805459311482854 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450013.820237, "end_time": 1741450014.135739, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4116103556508037 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450014.135739, "end_time": 1741450014.476452, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.3998324743828161 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450014.476452, "end_time": 1741450014.813027, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4116103556508037 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450014.813027, "end_time": 1741450015.139178, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4116103556508037 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450015.139178, "end_time": 1741450017.953367, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4116103556508037 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450017.953367, "end_time": 1741450018.282641, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.3981463644412153 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450018.282641, "end_time": 1741450018.588746, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.3981463644412153 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450018.588746, "end_time": 1741450018.908793, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.3981463644412153 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450018.908793, "end_time": 1741450019.350252, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.37629290966504125 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450019.350252, "end_time": 1741450019.920452, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.3981463644412153 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450019.920452, "end_time": 1741450020.023342, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.3981463644412153 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450020.023342, "end_time": 1741450020.289113, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39852539352281696 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450020.289113, "end_time": 1741450020.555901, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39852539352281696 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450020.555901, "end_time": 1741450020.771101, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39852539352281696 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450020.771101, "end_time": 1741450021.044227, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.37807751854515964 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450021.044227, "end_time": 1741450021.291148, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.367853581056331 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450021.291148, "end_time": 1741450027.037111, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.39852539352281696 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450027.037111, "end_time": 1741450027.301457, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3795454247608716 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450027.301457, "end_time": 1741450027.54965, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4084414810210528 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450027.54965, "end_time": 1741450027.796516, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.437337537281234 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450027.796516, "end_time": 1741450028.128625, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4277055185278403 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450028.128625, "end_time": 1741450028.426948, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.4469695560346277 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450028.426948, "end_time": 1741450031.402681, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4277055185278403 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450031.402681, "end_time": 1741450031.625255, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.45915047944973203 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450031.625255, "end_time": 1741450031.838512, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.43177441900959584 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450031.838512, "end_time": 1741450032.051682, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.41352371204950505 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450032.051682, "end_time": 1741450032.290391, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4226490655295504 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450032.290391, "end_time": 1741450032.541997, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.43177441900959584 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450032.541997, "end_time": 1741450052.221644, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.43177441900959584 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450052.221644, "end_time": 1741450052.447307, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4349404941661716 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450052.447307, "end_time": 1741450052.667629, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4696836955844712 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450052.667629, "end_time": 1741450052.870508, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.40888309310244675 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450052.870508, "end_time": 1741450053.166002, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.40019729274787186 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450053.166002, "end_time": 1741450053.416375, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.40888309310244675 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450053.416375, "end_time": 1741450092.414674, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.40888309310244675 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450092.414674, "end_time": 1741450092.863688, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3908082242550676 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450092.863688, "end_time": 1741450093.186478, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.38250809779265504 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450093.186478, "end_time": 1741450093.775743, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3908082242550676 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450093.775743, "end_time": 1741450094.350945, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3908082242550676 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450094.350945, "end_time": 1741450094.794024, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3742079713302425 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450094.794024, "end_time": 1741450129.903111, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3908082242550676 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450129.903111, "end_time": 1741450143.148557, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3763543959821888 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450143.148557, "end_time": 1741450152.706153, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35701416689471055 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450152.706153, "end_time": 1741450152.941709, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3456492755071637 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450152.941709, "end_time": 1741450153.192702, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3264653261124897 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450153.192702, "end_time": 1741450153.435993, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.35597909441198805 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450153.435993, "end_time": 1741450153.696516, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.34122221026223887 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450153.696516, "end_time": 1741450153.932089, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3264653261124897 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450153.932089, "end_time": 1741450278.831633, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.34122221026223887 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450278.831633, "end_time": 1741450298.357495, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.3602978700408012 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450298.357495, "end_time": 1741450298.934638, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.3906296473546822 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450298.934638, "end_time": 1741450299.512471, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.40029375216953295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450299.512471, "end_time": 1741450299.964206, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.36577909211649445 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450299.964206, "end_time": 1741450300.592588, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.3726820241271022 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450300.592588, "end_time": 1741450301.211743, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.40029375216953295 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450301.211743, "end_time": 1741450364.352195, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.3906296473546822 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450364.352195, "end_time": 1741450583.426115, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.3784936293757793 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450583.426115, "end_time": 1741450593.943844, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.40514121046516666 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450593.943844, "end_time": 1741450634.736591, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.43613144937444226 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450634.736591, "end_time": 1741450757.93316, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.44400610211858055 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450757.93316, "end_time": 1741450816.983165, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.46276494333741364 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450816.983165, "end_time": 1741450857.445288, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4829880872746122 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450857.445288, "end_time": 1741450880.107464, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4734643503274745 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741450880.107464, "end_time": 1741451063.939255, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.4652166240970816 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741451063.939255, "end_time": 1741451262.257675, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.4690401693642689 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741451262.257675, "end_time": 1741451272.471801, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.4718364261013524 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741451272.471801, "end_time": 1741451279.676867, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.48938780063003573 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741451279.676867, "end_time": 1741451321.864942, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.46975758811296164 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741451321.864942, "end_time": 1741451517.687701, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ], "means": [ 0.48708430609621717 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741451517.687701, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ], "means": [ 0.44437743975517746 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3723319537601757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6159019440994773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09421835938530294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.201492446433726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 1.036074989500979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.2682456184822639, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2403570004362803, 0.9160279542388619, 0.3571884672884433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741451517.687701, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.505, 0.495 ], "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.495 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.635 ], "means": [ 0.44437743975517746 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3723319537601757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6159019440994773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09421835938530294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.201492446433726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 1.036074989500979, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.2682456184822639, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2403570004362803, 0.9160279542388619, 0.3571884672884433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking." }, { "id": 35780, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "slug": "will-pepfar-funding-be-resumed-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-07T15:58:30.160144Z", "published_at": "2025-03-08T23:31:47.229946Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-14T06:25:52.127198Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-08T23:31:47.229944Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35215, "title": "Will PEPFAR funding be resumed before April 7, 2025?", "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed.", "created_at": "2025-03-07T15:58:30.160585Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-12T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that funding for the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which is frozen ([NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/24/us/politics/trump-hiv-aids-pepfar.html), [JIAS](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11851316/), [Politico](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/03/05/congress/graham-warns-trumps-budget-pick-about-going-too-far-with-funding-freeze-00213662)) at the time of this question, has resumed. If a partial resumption takes place, this question will resolve as **Yes** PEPFAR's funding levels are at least 50% of pre-pause funding.", "fine_print": "An announcement that funding *will* resume will only resolve this question if the date of the resumption is before April 7, 2025 and no credible sources as of that date suggest that funding remains paused. ", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741626231.950008, "end_time": 1741629132.231956, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.25 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741629132.231956, "end_time": 1741629138.433029, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.29500000000000004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.29500000000000004 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741629138.433029, "end_time": 1741633188.669203, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.4381222655356574 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741633188.669203, "end_time": 1741634753.755914, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.3867660379414649 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741634753.755914, "end_time": 1741640399.821576, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3365843015108814 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741640399.821576, "end_time": 1741641644.755068, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2722793031065082 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741641644.755068, "end_time": 1741643167.926725, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.33073405493326535 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741643167.926725, "end_time": 1741644114.851853, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.26460500759557126 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741644114.851853, "end_time": 1741644125.62133, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.2723400362537033 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741644125.62133, "end_time": 1741662289.696373, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.27465316325883743 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741662289.696373, "end_time": 1741685035.560573, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.2859704152397584 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741685035.560573, "end_time": 1741696825.258442, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.2694090422032305 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741696825.258442, "end_time": 1741701395.424568, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.23301548225879504 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741701395.424568, "end_time": 1741701410.524052, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.2620233659268967 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741701410.524052, "end_time": 1741722679.487229, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2533375655723217 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741722679.487229, "end_time": 1741739640.436745, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.22788314185854663 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741739640.436745, "end_time": 1741775224.851862, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.24732032512338248 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741775224.851862, "end_time": 1741826180.959992, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25538365345041025 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741826180.959992, "end_time": 1741838660.671438, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.2324538677230855 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741838660.671438, "end_time": 1741844439.037785, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25998224547292526 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741844439.037785, "end_time": 1741854272.737583, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.25137689812479846 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741854272.737583, "end_time": 1741875241.304977, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.26258793356682936 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741875241.304977, "end_time": 1741878089.341622, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.25284468048740183 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741878089.341622, "end_time": 1741881640.243599, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.24667586136204084 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741881640.243599, "end_time": 1741882583.953808, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.2195230593798434 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741882583.953808, "end_time": 1741933541.78513, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.20550281391963138 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741933541.78513, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.26502446052531475 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902431432340592, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3290404527302955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6749403546686197, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5442257197207703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7102714609196534, 0.03105063701600968, 0.5443314306020622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741933541.78513, "end_time": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.26502446052531475 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6902431432340592, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3290404527302955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6749403546686197, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5442257197207703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7102714609196534, 0.03105063701600968, 0.5443314306020622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "PEPFAR, the President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief, is a United States governmental initiative to address the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Launched by U.S. President George W. Bush in 2003, [as of April 2024](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) PEPFAR had provided about \\$120 billion in cumulative funding for HIV/AIDS treatment, prevention, and research since its inception, making it the largest global health program focused on a single disease in history until the COVID-19 pandemic. PEPFAR [has saved](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) over 26 million lives, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n\nOn January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n\nAfter a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation.\n\nAccording to [The Conversation](https://theconversation.com/pepfar-funding-to-fight-hiv-aids-has-saved-26-million-lives-since-2003-how-cutting-it-will-hurt-africa-250413) on March 4, 2025: \n\n> \\[A]s of this writing, despite a [court order](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69628254/21/global-health-council-v-donald-j-trump/) to resume funding, it remains entirely frozen, and most programmes are still shut down. The day after the court ordered the government to pay [nearly US\\$2 billion](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2025/02/25/usaid-funding-trump-administration-court/) it owes organisations for work already done, the administration revealed that it had terminated the vast majority of foreign assistance awards, [including some for Pepfar](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html). Details have not been made public. Meanwhile, the [US Supreme Court put a short-term pause](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/us/politics/trump-usaid-foreign-aid.html) on the lower court’s order to immediately pay the money already owed." } ] }{ "count": 4974, "next": "