Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=20
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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40970, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2025-12-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-23?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:40.597488Z", "open_time": "2025-12-23T20:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-23T21:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-23T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T03:14:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T03:14:58Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:58:14.011511Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T21:47:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T21:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:58) is 54.19. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BMY. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-23, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41262, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766524372.897012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766524372.897012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5553493950098498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 7.0, 5.0, 25.0, 9.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 15.426658671078648, "peer_score": -0.6418173031529364, "coverage": 0.9851324352070138, "relative_legacy_score": 0.004800437319271578, "weighted_coverage": 0.9851324352070138, "spot_peer_score": -0.39567005074710304, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 15.426658671078648, "peer_archived_score": -0.6418173031529364, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.004800437319271578, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.39567005074710304, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:58) is 54.19. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40969, "title": "Will WAT's market close price on 2026-01-01 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-23?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:35.083658Z", "open_time": "2025-12-23T19:51:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-23T21:21:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-23T21:21:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:50:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:50:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:58:19.528061Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T21:21:38Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T21:21:38Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Waters Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:49) is 378.03. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. 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The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WAT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WAT. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-23, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:49) is 378.03. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. In addition, the company offers MS technology are used in drug discovery and development comprising clinical trial testing, the analysis of proteins in disease processes, nutritional safety analysis, and environmental testing. Further, the company provides thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments for use in predicting the suitability and stability of fine chemicals, pharmaceuticals, water, polymers, metals, and viscous liquids for various industrial, consumer good, and healthcare products, as well as for life science research. Its products are used by clinical, pharmaceutical, biochemical, industrial, nutritional safety, environmental, academic, and governmental customers working in research and development, quality assurance, and other laboratory applications. The company was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Milford, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WAT\"}}`" }, { "id": 41255, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-over-23-of-the-eu-recognize-palestine-before-july-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:13.080867Z", "published_at": "2025-12-23T12:37:08Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:58:27.887782Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:14.298179Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T09:01:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T09:01:28Z", "open_time": "2025-12-23T12:37:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40963, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:13.081288Z", "open_time": "2025-12-23T12:37:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T09:01:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T09:01:28Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:58:25.061134Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940). If the community prediction on 2026-01-03 09:01:28 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41255, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766498310.633863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766498310.633863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.3398663328052113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 22.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -64.1372738062571, "peer_score": -1.4807320006308984, "coverage": 0.9202058311303457, "relative_legacy_score": -0.1539374002247572, "weighted_coverage": 0.9202058311303457, "spot_peer_score": -1.6621240101657833, "spot_baseline_score": -68.96598793878495, "baseline_archived_score": -64.1372738062571, "peer_archived_score": -1.4807320006308984, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.1539374002247572, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6621240101657833, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -68.96598793878495 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`" }, { "id": 41250, "title": "Will GPN's market close price on 2026-01-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-23?", "short_title": "GPN's close price rises?", "url_title": "GPN's close price rises?", "slug": "gpns-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:53.682145Z", "published_at": "2025-12-23T00:23:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-23T01:54:00.264146Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:54.899843Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T01:53:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T01:53:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T13:17:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-23T00:23:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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It's ticker is GPN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:54) is 80.85. You can find more information about Global Payments Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPN\n\nGlobal Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through two segments, Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions. The Merchant Solutions segment offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, reconciliation and dispute management, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services. 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It's ticker is GPN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:54) is 80.85. You can find more information about Global Payments Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPN\n\nGlobal Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through two segments, Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions. The Merchant Solutions segment offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, reconciliation and dispute management, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services. 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It's ticker is ICE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:03) is 160.3. You can find more information about Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ICE\n\nIntercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, India, Israel, Canada, and Singapore. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. 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It's ticker is ICE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:03) is 160.3. You can find more information about Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ICE\n\nIntercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, India, Israel, Canada, and Singapore. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. 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It's ticker is UDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:52) is 35.65. You can find more information about UDR, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UDR\n\nUDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of September 30, 2025, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,535 apartment homes, including 300 apartment homes under development. For over 53 years, UDR has delivered long-term value to shareholders, the best standard of service to Residents and the highest quality experience for Associates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UDR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of UDR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-22, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "UDR's close price rises?", "post_id": 41244, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766427408.527077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766427408.527077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5398597337495531 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 11.0, 6.0, 22.0, 6.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.405568555399306, "peer_score": 2.529038400334608, "coverage": 0.992038767028738, "relative_legacy_score": 0.017972579267452226, "weighted_coverage": 0.992038767028738, "spot_peer_score": 2.6875039783542567, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.405568555399306, "peer_archived_score": 2.529038400334608, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.017972579267452226, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.6875039783542567, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UDR, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is UDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:52) is 35.65. You can find more information about UDR, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UDR\n\nUDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of September 30, 2025, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,535 apartment homes, including 300 apartment homes under development. For over 53 years, UDR has delivered long-term value to shareholders, the best standard of service to Residents and the highest quality experience for Associates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UDR\"}}`" }, { "id": 41242, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-attacks-venezuela-in-dec-2025jan-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:23.051615Z", "published_at": "2025-12-22T14:48:22Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T05:55:50.424409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:24.590751Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T13:31:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T05:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-12-22T14:48:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40950, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:23.052038Z", "open_time": "2025-12-22T14:48:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T13:31:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T05:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T05:53:38.288734Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40950\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40950,\"question_id\":40643,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40950). If the community prediction on 2026-01-04 13:31:54 is higher than 45.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41242, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766418609.674208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766418609.674208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40986707699984987 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 20.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40950\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40950,\"question_id\":40643,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`" }, { "id": 41214, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high price before October 6, 2026?", "short_title": "Bitcoin ATH before Oct 6, 2026?", "url_title": "Bitcoin ATH before Oct 6, 2026?", "slug": "bitcoin-ath-before-oct-6-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-17T16:54:43.624647Z", "published_at": "2025-12-18T17:12:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-04T09:17:21.234902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-18T17:13:58.049572Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-05T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T17:12:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40928, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high price before October 6, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-17T16:54:43.625099Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T17:12:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-23T17:12:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-23T17:12:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-05T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-05T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and most widely adopted cryptocurrency. Its price has historically shown significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of \\$126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 before falling (according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)).\n\nThe price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including:\n\n* Institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, corporate holdings)\n* Macroeconomic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, monetary policies) \n* Regulatory developments (e.g., government restrictions, taxation, legal status) \n* Technological advancements (e.g., Layer 2 solutions, network upgrades)\n* Market sentiment and speculation\n\nSeveral financial institutions and analysts have provided forecasts for Bitcoin’s price:\n\n* [Bitwise](https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2026), [Standard Charter and Bernstein](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/bitcoin-bulls-standard-chartered-bernstein-pare-back-most-ambitious-forecasts?embedded-checkout=true) predicts BTC to reach a new ATH in 2026.\n* [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/12/16/serious-2026-3-trillion-crypto-collapse-fed-warning-issued-10000-bitcoin-price-predicted-as-crash-fears-swirl/) has warned of a possible huge crash in BTC price.\n\nBitcoin has been [priced below \\$100,000 since November 13, 2025](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 6, 2026, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than \\$126,198.07 and the date of that ATH price is between December 17, 2025 and October 6, 2026.", "fine_print": "Since the price of Bitcoin varies on different exchanges, it is possible that different statistics sites mention slightly different values for ATH. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest price recorded on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).\n\nIf the resolution source is no longer available or otherwise unusable, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to resolve this question.", "short_title": "Bitcoin ATH before Oct 6, 2026?", "post_id": 41214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767518230.743897, "end_time": 1769243687.15, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767518230.743897, "end_time": 1769243687.15, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.49489021319364906 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and most widely adopted cryptocurrency. Its price has historically shown significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of \\$126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 before falling (according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)).\n\nThe price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including:\n\n* Institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, corporate holdings)\n* Macroeconomic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, monetary policies) \n* Regulatory developments (e.g., government restrictions, taxation, legal status) \n* Technological advancements (e.g., Layer 2 solutions, network upgrades)\n* Market sentiment and speculation\n\nSeveral financial institutions and analysts have provided forecasts for Bitcoin’s price:\n\n* [Bitwise](https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2026), [Standard Charter and Bernstein](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/bitcoin-bulls-standard-chartered-bernstein-pare-back-most-ambitious-forecasts?embedded-checkout=true) predicts BTC to reach a new ATH in 2026.\n* [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/12/16/serious-2026-3-trillion-crypto-collapse-fed-warning-issued-10000-bitcoin-price-predicted-as-crash-fears-swirl/) has warned of a possible huge crash in BTC price.\n\nBitcoin has been [priced below \\$100,000 since November 13, 2025](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/)." }, { "id": 41212, "title": "Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "short_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "url_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "slug": "nasa-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-before-2030", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-17T12:21:05.772161Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T01:29:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-04T13:18:47.870255Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T01:29:14.592461Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-20T01:29:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40926, "title": "Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-17T12:21:05.772604Z", "open_time": "2025-12-20T01:29:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T01:29:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T01:29:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2:\n\n> It is the policy of the United States to:\n> (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources;\n> (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and\n> (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets.\n\nOn August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030. \n\n> Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly.\n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), \"questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals.\"\n\nThe idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \\$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be [\"the only technological option available\" - \"it’s ambitious, but definitely possible\"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a fully built nuclear reactor is located anywhere on the Moon's surface and that NASA is fully or partially responsible for this.", "fine_print": "The nuclear reactor does not have to be operational, it only needs to be fully built and ready for testing, testing does not need to have been commenced.\n\nThe resolution will be based on [official NASA communications](https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "short_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "post_id": 41212, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767434623.844749, "end_time": 1774001927.06, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767434623.844749, "end_time": 1774001927.06, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.07327464732374706 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.410821731460298, 0.15800822019738164, 0.027714863046207582, 1.263823202785459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 1.235240586547702, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5469448541590932, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2:\n\n> It is the policy of the United States to:\n> (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources;\n> (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and\n> (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets.\n\nOn August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030. \n\n> Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly.\n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), \"questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals.\"\n\nThe idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \\$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be [\"the only technological option available\" - \"it’s ambitious, but definitely possible\"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/)." }, { "id": 41206, "title": "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-anthropic-file-an-s-1-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-15T23:19:19.237344Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T23:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-02T16:00:29.794690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-15T23:25:24.579741Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-17T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:55:38.895008Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:55:38.895008Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } }, "question": { "id": 40916, "title": "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-15T23:19:19.237702Z", "open_time": "2025-12-17T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T23:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T23:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n\n> Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n\n> For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n\nAccording to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n\n> Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767369619.39452, "end_time": 1767866399.999, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767369619.39452, "end_time": 1767866399.999, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6328125282932211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8657736781661247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.28862105284580747, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.3008835960253601, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16528349819318522 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n\n> Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n\n> For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n\nAccording to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n\n> Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop." }, { "id": 41205, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-march-15-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:29.728227Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-04T09:42:44.792036Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-16T01:02:52.301985Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-16T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, 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"<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:55:38.895008Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } }, "question": { "id": 40915, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:29.728598Z", "open_time": "2025-12-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T19:36:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T19:36:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth—expected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-end—is matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before March 15, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "post_id": 41205, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767519754.187344, "end_time": 1767917919.397, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767519754.187344, "end_time": 1767917919.397, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.4469645878803928 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth—expected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-end—is matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure." }, { "id": 41193, "title": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "short_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "url_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "slug": "i-safety-law-enacted-in-the-us-in-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-14T21:14:41.480667Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:40Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:19:38.073903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:27:12.253714Z", 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"order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } }, "question": { "id": 40912, "title": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-14T21:14:41.481093Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment. \n\nPresident Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: \"\\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.\" \n\nBiden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests.\n\nSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on \"a single national framework\" regarding development of AI, \"which makes sure we can win this race.\"\n\nOne bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States federal government enacts a law or executive order, after December 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, which introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models.\n\nFor purposes of this question, an “AI safety requirement” is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system’s general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls. Such requirements count only if they are imposed on the basis of the model’s general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model), rather than on the basis of a specific application, audience, or content category. They do not include requirements about privacy, copyright, or federal procurement.", "fine_print": "\"Private entity\" is [defined](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/6/1501#15_A) as \"any person or private group, organization, proprietorship, partnership, trust, cooperative, corporation, or other commercial or nonprofit entity, including an officer, employee, or agent thereof.\" It does not include governments, government agencies or departments, or foreign powers.\n\nAn example of an executive order that would count is [EO 14110](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14110) signed October 30, 2023, which (among other things) ordered the Secretary of Commerce to require developers of certain advanced AI models to conduct red-teaming tests \"to enable deployment of safe, secure, and trustworthy systems.\"\n\nAn example of an EO that would not count is [Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/) signed December 11, 2025, which does not introduce new AI safety requirements on the developers or deployers of AI models and instead says, \"To win, United States AI companies must be free to innovate without cumbersome regulation.\" Another that would not count is [EO 13960](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/08/2020-27065/promoting-the-use-of-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence-in-the-federal-government), signed December 3, 2020, because it specifically imposes requirements on government agencies but imposes no new requirements on private entities developing or deploying AI models.\n\nAn executive order is [defined](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/publications/teaching-legal-docs/what-is-an-executive-order-/) as any presidential document with an executive order number published in the Federal Register. Orders that do not have such a number, such as administrative orders or presidential proclamations, will not count for this question.", "short_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "post_id": 41193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 460, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment. \n\nPresident Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: \"\\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.\" \n\nBiden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests.\n\nSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on \"a single national framework\" regarding development of AI, \"which makes sure we can win this race.\"\n\nOne bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety." }, { "id": 41190, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "short_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "url_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "slug": "agi-transition-beneficial-for-humanity", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:37.997748Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:38Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-04T22:51:31.922476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T06:01:05.535209Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T05:58:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:50:47.558236Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:50:47.558236Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 40909, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "created_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:37.998212Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T05:58:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T05:58:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T05:58:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\r\n\r\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.", "resolution_criteria": "A world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\r\n\r\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\r\n\r\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\r\n\r\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question will resolve as \\**Ambiguous.*", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "post_id": 41190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767567081.722164, "end_time": 1767815870.884, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767567081.722164, "end_time": 1767815870.884, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.26402170931659885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5953157053272264, 0.01314477978390478, 0.007450345017332388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14964417993611692, 0.0, 0.7350388750185955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7742626083846165, 0.0, 0.07284764691086593, 0.00020648529180236237, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.4363441588897141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5012423852015054, 0.0, 2.383259981858834, 0.6283938880017965, 0.0, 0.7013827687688555, 0.0, 1.4378876187286378, 0.5643301177679229, 0.5080259526806518, 0.21590977405535652, 0.0, 2.460631707678732, 0.0, 1.3608485639128294, 0.9386637140818129, 0.0030998879571656206, 1.5387095775631354, 0.0, 0.0027408287615106786, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2366148885675454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016037777780894943, 0.0, 0.23253906358960985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006734474812209602, 0.0, 0.6976045232148063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346762477837855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012006953225304347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028374229916521676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000469695023939754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 218, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\r\n\r\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals." }, { "id": 41178, "title": "Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036 and successfully land?", "short_title": "Humans sent to Mars before 2036?", "url_title": "Humans sent to Mars before 2036?", "slug": "humans-sent-to-mars-before-2036", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T17:42:01.924877Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T13:55:52Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T13:39:33.254026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T13:56:06.883608Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T13:55:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40905, "title": "Will humans be sent to Mars before 2036 and successfully land?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T17:42:01.925328Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T13:55:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T13:55:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T13:55:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-02-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will humans land on Mars by 2035?*\n\nHuman missions to Mars have long been a [<u>goal of both NASA</u>](https://www.space.com/nasa-aims-for-2035-mars-landings-iac.html?) and commercial space companies, but achieving a crewed landing on the Red Planet remains a massive technical, financial, and logistical challenge. NASA’s [<u>“Human Path to Mars”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?) roadmap envisions sending astronauts to Mars in the 2030s, relying on technologies such as Orion capsules, heavy-lift rockets, in-situ resource utilization, and lunar infrastructure as stepping stones.[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nNASA’s most recent [<u>20-year Mars Exploration Plan (2024–2044)</u>](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?) highlights key preparatory work in the early 2030s, including identifying safe landing sites, characterizing Martian ice-rich regions, and studying atmospheric conditions like dust storms which could affect both landing and takeoff.[ ](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)While the plan outlines scientific priorities and risk mitigation, it does *not* definitively commit to a crewed landing by 2035.\n\nOn the commercial front, [<u>SpaceX continues to push an ambitious timeline for Mars</u>](https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars). Elon Musk and company have [<u>publicly floated first crewed Starship flights to Mars in the late 2020s</u>](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?), depending on the success of uncrewed test missions and the build-out of infrastructure.[ ](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)However, these projections remain highly speculative — [<u>dependent on technological breakthroughs, funding, and regulatory approvals</u>](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/humanity-could-settle-mars-by-2055-elon-musk-says?).\n\nOutside the U.S., several national space agencies have articulated long-term human Mars ambitions, though nearly all extend beyond the 2030s:\n\n* <u>China (</u>[<u>CNSA</u>](https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/)<u>)</u> – China has announced intentions to [<u>send taikonauts to Mars in the 2040s</u>](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents/Research/Space/2025-05-05%20The%20Real%20Space%20Race%20China%20Will%20Send%20a%20Crew%20to%20Orbit%20Mars%20by%202050.pdf?ver=5pT8gZsloeqXRiv3F43GnA%3D%3D), with an initial crewed landing followed by a surface base by the 2050s.\n* <u>European Space Agency (</u>[<u>ESA</u>](https://www.esa.int/)<u>)</u> – [<u>ESA leadership has discussed pursuing a human Mars mission around 2040</u>](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_Strategy_2040), dependent on international partnerships and long-term funding.\n* <u>Russia (</u>[<u>Roscosmos</u>](https://www.iafastro.org/membership/all-members/roscosmos.html)<u>)</u> – Russia has [<u>floated timelines for a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s or early 2040s</u>](https://tass.com/science/1177101), although current geopolitical and budgetary constraints have cast doubt on these plans.\n* <u>India (</u>[<u>ISRO</u>](https://www.isro.gov.in/)<u>) </u>– India’s [<u>Mars ambitions</u>](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2611896/amp) are phased: precursor missions in the 2030s–2040s, with a possible human Mars mission closer to the 2060s.\n* <u>United Arab Emirates (UAE)</u> – The [<u>UAE’s Mars 2117</u>](https://www.uae2117marsexpedition.com/) initiative targets a long-term, collaborative plan to build a human settlement on Mars by 2117.\n\nThere is also skepticism from independent analyses. For example, a report from 2019 argued that a crewed Mars landing in the early 2030s is not feasible under existing U.S. deep-space budgets, citing [<u>huge costs for propulsion systems, surface infrastructure, launch vehicles, and life-support systems</u>](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?).[ ](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Given the scale, complexity, and risk, many experts view 2035 as an optimistic target rather than a sure one.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if\n\n* a crewed mission is launched from Earth before January 1, 2036\n* the same mission lands on the surface of Mars.", "fine_print": "* The date the mission lands to the surface of Mars is irrelevant, as long as it has launched from the Earth before January 1, 2036.\n* To qualify for this question, at least one member of the crew must be alive during and for at least 1 minute following their landing on Mars, hard impacts or crashes will not resolve this question.\n* For the purpose of this question, landing refers the human's spacecraft or spacesuit physically touching the surface of Mars.", "short_title": "Humans sent to Mars before 2036?", "post_id": 41178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767447563.067924, "end_time": 1767706762.929, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767447563.067924, "end_time": 1767706762.929, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31231242671757853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.5477408364745839, 0.0, 1.1441729218846377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2253347673949832, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2957100916975612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4985200053477548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will humans land on Mars by 2035?*\n\nHuman missions to Mars have long been a [<u>goal of both NASA</u>](https://www.space.com/nasa-aims-for-2035-mars-landings-iac.html?) and commercial space companies, but achieving a crewed landing on the Red Planet remains a massive technical, financial, and logistical challenge. NASA’s [<u>“Human Path to Mars”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?) roadmap envisions sending astronauts to Mars in the 2030s, relying on technologies such as Orion capsules, heavy-lift rockets, in-situ resource utilization, and lunar infrastructure as stepping stones.[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/resource/nasas-human-path-to-mars/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nNASA’s most recent [<u>20-year Mars Exploration Plan (2024–2044)</u>](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?) highlights key preparatory work in the early 2030s, including identifying safe landing sites, characterizing Martian ice-rich regions, and studying atmospheric conditions like dust storms which could affect both landing and takeoff.[ ](https://assets.science.nasa.gov/content/dam/science/psd/solar-system/mars/campaigns/mars-future-plan/20241204_Mars_Future_Plan_Final_Print.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)While the plan outlines scientific priorities and risk mitigation, it does *not* definitively commit to a crewed landing by 2035.\n\nOn the commercial front, [<u>SpaceX continues to push an ambitious timeline for Mars</u>](https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars). Elon Musk and company have [<u>publicly floated first crewed Starship flights to Mars in the late 2020s</u>](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?), depending on the success of uncrewed test missions and the build-out of infrastructure.[ ](https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/features/a-closer-look-at-spacexs-mars-plan/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)However, these projections remain highly speculative — [<u>dependent on technological breakthroughs, funding, and regulatory approvals</u>](https://www.space.com/space-exploration/private-spaceflight/humanity-could-settle-mars-by-2055-elon-musk-says?).\n\nOutside the U.S., several national space agencies have articulated long-term human Mars ambitions, though nearly all extend beyond the 2030s:\n\n* <u>China (</u>[<u>CNSA</u>](https://www.cnsa.gov.cn/english/)<u>)</u> – China has announced intentions to [<u>send taikonauts to Mars in the 2040s</u>](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/CASI/documents/Research/Space/2025-05-05%20The%20Real%20Space%20Race%20China%20Will%20Send%20a%20Crew%20to%20Orbit%20Mars%20by%202050.pdf?ver=5pT8gZsloeqXRiv3F43GnA%3D%3D), with an initial crewed landing followed by a surface base by the 2050s.\n* <u>European Space Agency (</u>[<u>ESA</u>](https://www.esa.int/)<u>)</u> – [<u>ESA leadership has discussed pursuing a human Mars mission around 2040</u>](https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_Strategy_2040), dependent on international partnerships and long-term funding.\n* <u>Russia (</u>[<u>Roscosmos</u>](https://www.iafastro.org/membership/all-members/roscosmos.html)<u>)</u> – Russia has [<u>floated timelines for a crewed Mars landing in the late 2030s or early 2040s</u>](https://tass.com/science/1177101), although current geopolitical and budgetary constraints have cast doubt on these plans.\n* <u>India (</u>[<u>ISRO</u>](https://www.isro.gov.in/)<u>) </u>– India’s [<u>Mars ambitions</u>](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2611896/amp) are phased: precursor missions in the 2030s–2040s, with a possible human Mars mission closer to the 2060s.\n* <u>United Arab Emirates (UAE)</u> – The [<u>UAE’s Mars 2117</u>](https://www.uae2117marsexpedition.com/) initiative targets a long-term, collaborative plan to build a human settlement on Mars by 2117.\n\nThere is also skepticism from independent analyses. For example, a report from 2019 argued that a crewed Mars landing in the early 2030s is not feasible under existing U.S. deep-space budgets, citing [<u>huge costs for propulsion systems, surface infrastructure, launch vehicles, and life-support systems</u>](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?).[ ](https://www.space.com/human-mars-mission-is-not-feasible.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Given the scale, complexity, and risk, many experts view 2035 as an optimistic target rather than a sure one." }, { "id": 41176, "title": "Will the England national men's team win a major international football title before the release of The Elder Scrolls VI?", "short_title": "England football team to win international trophy before Elder Scrolls 6?", "url_title": "England football team to win international trophy before Elder Scrolls 6?", "slug": "england-football-team-to-win-international-trophy-before-elder-scrolls-6", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T15:14:59.012928Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T19:18:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-04T13:18:35.337056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-15T19:19:06.019228Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-16T19:18:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } }, "question": { "id": 40903, "title": "Will the England national men's team win a major international football title before the release of The Elder Scrolls VI?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T15:14:59.013587Z", "open_time": "2025-12-16T19:18:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T19:18:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T19:18:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In 2018, Bethesda announced they had started working on [The Elder Scrolls VI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkFdqqyI8y4). Since then, other projects have delayed production and there's been little news about the game, making TES VI one of the most important vaporware of the last ten years.\n\nIn 1966, England won the World Cup. Almost 60 years later and they have [mostly had mediocre results](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) but the nation has recently had renewed optimism with two [Euro finals](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) in a row and a [22 undefeated games streak](https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/england-hungary-result-score-nations-league-2022-b2094049.html). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if after 2025, the [English national men's football team](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_national_football_team) wins the FIFA World Cup or the UEFA European Championship before [The Elder Scrolls VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Elder_Scrolls_VI) is released.", "fine_print": "If a different name is chosen for The Elder Scrolls VI, that game will still be considered as the same game for this question.", "short_title": "England football team to win international trophy before Elder Scrolls 6?", "post_id": 41176, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767447015.182251, "end_time": 1798497114.902, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767447015.182251, "end_time": 1798497114.902, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.12364975421087206 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8330381715449309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2018, Bethesda announced they had started working on [The Elder Scrolls VI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkFdqqyI8y4). Since then, other projects have delayed production and there's been little news about the game, making TES VI one of the most important vaporware of the last ten years.\n\nIn 1966, England won the World Cup. Almost 60 years later and they have [mostly had mediocre results](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) but the nation has recently had renewed optimism with two [Euro finals](http://www.englandfootballonline.com/CmpAll/CmpAll.html) in a row and a [22 undefeated games streak](https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/england-hungary-result-score-nations-league-2022-b2094049.html). " }, { "id": 41174, "title": "Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?", "short_title": "Tridentine Mass restrictions loosened in 2026?", "url_title": "Tridentine Mass restrictions loosened in 2026?", "slug": "tridentine-mass-restrictions-loosened-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T12:32:12.340123Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:34:27.260998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:26:55.621102Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 338, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 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"start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40902, "title": "Will restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church be loosened during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T12:32:12.340506Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Within the Catholic Church, a [Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_in_the_Catholic_Church) is a ceremony where a priest conducts a series of prayers, chants, and rituals in which bread and wine are said to become the body and blood of Jesus.\n\nOriginally codified in 1570, the [Traditional Latin Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tridentine_Mass), also known as the Tridentine Mass or Traditional Rite was historically the most common [liturgy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_liturgy) within the Catholic Church.\n\nIn 1969, following its [promulgation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation_\\(Catholic_canon_law\\)), the [Mass of Paul VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_of_Paul_VI), also known as the Novus Ordo largely displaced the Tridentine Mass, with it becoming the most commonly used mass today.\n\nAlthough fading from its past prominence, the Tridentine Mass remains a key point among [Traditionalist Catholics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionalist_Catholicism) with significant parts of the Church still practicing it regularly.\n\nOn July 16, 2021, [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Francis) released the [Traditionis custodes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionis_custodes) an apostolic letter that introduces significant restrictions on the use of the Tridentine Mass. With the election of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV), speculation has emerged of a possible loosening of restrictions, with him so far indicating a softening but not a revocation of the changes.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass are loosened by the Holy See of the Catholic Church during 2026.", "fine_print": "A loosening of restrictions is an official change that has any of the following effects:\n\n* Reduces required permissions or conditions for priests or bishops to conduct or authorize the Traditional Latin Mass, for example by removing Rome's required approval for new priests, parish churches, or personal parishes.\n* Expands the types of churches or locations where the Traditional Latin Mass may be conducted.\n* Allows the creation of new groups dedicated primarily to the Traditional Latin Mass.\n\nThe change must apply to at least a category of dioceses, institutes, or faithful, not only to one specifically named person or community.\n\nThis question will not consider informal or non-binding changes, such as internal guidance or a mere change in how generously individual dispensations are granted.", "short_title": "Tridentine Mass restrictions loosened in 2026?", "post_id": 41174, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 377, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Within the Catholic Church, a [Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_in_the_Catholic_Church) is a ceremony where a priest conducts a series of prayers, chants, and rituals in which bread and wine are said to become the body and blood of Jesus.\n\nOriginally codified in 1570, the [Traditional Latin Mass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tridentine_Mass), also known as the Tridentine Mass or Traditional Rite was historically the most common [liturgy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catholic_liturgy) within the Catholic Church.\n\nIn 1969, following its [promulgation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Promulgation_\\(Catholic_canon_law\\)), the [Mass of Paul VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mass_of_Paul_VI), also known as the Novus Ordo largely displaced the Tridentine Mass, with it becoming the most commonly used mass today.\n\nAlthough fading from its past prominence, the Tridentine Mass remains a key point among [Traditionalist Catholics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionalist_Catholicism) with significant parts of the Church still practicing it regularly.\n\nOn July 16, 2021, [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Francis) released the [Traditionis custodes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traditionis_custodes) an apostolic letter that introduces significant restrictions on the use of the Tridentine Mass. With the election of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV), speculation has emerged of a possible loosening of restrictions, with him so far indicating a softening but not a revocation of the changes." }, { "id": 41173, "title": "Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?", "short_title": "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?", "url_title": "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?", "slug": "eu-age-verification-on-social-mediaai-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T11:38:26.485545Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:25:33.790464Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:26:39.446212Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 395, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } }, "question": { "id": 40901, "title": "Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T11:38:26.485961Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n\nAlthough carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n\nFacing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n\nNonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, an EU Regulation or EU Directive is adopted that (i) requires at least one social media platform or AI chatbot to use mandatory age verification for EU users, or (ii) in the case of a Directive, requires Member States to ensure such an obligation is imposed on those services.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, mandatory age verification refers to verifying a user's age beyond self-declaration, through methods such as ID verification or facial analysis.", "short_title": "EU age verification on social media/AI in 2026?", "post_id": 41173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 449, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 26, 2025 the European Parliament [passed](https://www.reuters.com/legal/litigation/european-lawmakers-seek-eu-wide-minimum-age-access-ai-chatbots-social-media-2025-11-26/) a non-binding resolution calling upon social media platforms and AI chatbots to set a minimum age of 16 to access their services.\n\nAlthough carrying no legal weight, the resolution comes after similar laws have been passed around the world, with UK's [Online Safety Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Act_2023) granting the UK government the power to restrict a wide range of internet content and Australia's [Online Safety Amendment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Online_Safety_Amendment) banning Under-16s from using certain social media platforms.\n\nFacing significant criticism from [privacy rights organisations](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-09/snapchat-age-verification-privacy-concerns-social-media-ban/106095510), the laws have seen uncertainty around how age can be verified without substantial privacy violations as well as criticism of goals themselves, with many viewing social media as having substantial benefits.\n\nNonetheless, European leaders have praised the Australian law, with [Denmark planning](https://apnews.com/article/denmark-social-media-ban-australia-1e96a3df3276cc2033a6f04effb89f51) to ban social media for Under-15s and [others calling](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-12-08/how-europe-may-follow-australias-teen-social-media-ban/106035946) for European level age verification laws." }, { "id": 41172, "title": "Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?", "short_title": "FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?", "url_title": "FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?", "slug": "fda-approved-psilocybin-therapy-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T10:54:05.899394Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:34Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:19:08.464695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:26:21.180429Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 364, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40900, "title": "Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T10:54:05.899833Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[Psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin) is a hallucinogenic drug that is naturally produced in over 200 species of [mushroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_mushroom). [Illegal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_psilocybin_mushrooms) in most of the world, the drug has been studied as a possible treatment for various psychiatric disorders, including depression, OCD, and PTSD.\n\nAlthough approved for medical use in countries such as [Australia and Czechia](https://balkaninsight.com/2025/07/02/psychedelic-healing-czechia-opens-mind-to-magic-mushroom-therapy/) and even fully legal in countries such as [Jamaica](https://www.vice.com/en/article/jamaica-magic-mushrooms-legal-loophole/), the United States FDA has so far [declined to approve](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) psilocybin treatment.\n\nPsilocybin is illegal on the [federal level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) and classified as a Schedule 1 substance, but has been decriminalized and legalized for medical use in various states, while the FDA may approve treatments regardless of its Schedule 1 status.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US Food and Drug Administration approves a psilocybin treatment during 2026.", "fine_print": "This question only refers to market authorisation for medical treatment in humans, including emergency use authorisations.\n\nFor purposes of this question, a \"psilocybin treatment\" is defined as any drug with psilocybin as its active ingredient.", "short_title": "FDA-approved psilocybin therapy in 2026?", "post_id": 41172, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 395, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Psilocybin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin) is a hallucinogenic drug that is naturally produced in over 200 species of [mushroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_mushroom). [Illegal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legal_status_of_psilocybin_mushrooms) in most of the world, the drug has been studied as a possible treatment for various psychiatric disorders, including depression, OCD, and PTSD.\n\nAlthough approved for medical use in countries such as [Australia and Czechia](https://balkaninsight.com/2025/07/02/psychedelic-healing-czechia-opens-mind-to-magic-mushroom-therapy/) and even fully legal in countries such as [Jamaica](https://www.vice.com/en/article/jamaica-magic-mushrooms-legal-loophole/), the United States FDA has so far [declined to approve](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fda-rejects-psychedelic-mdma-assisted-therapy-ptsd-rcna165531) psilocybin treatment.\n\nPsilocybin is illegal on the [federal level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psilocybin_decriminalization_in_the_United_States) and classified as a Schedule 1 substance, but has been decriminalized and legalized for medical use in various states, while the FDA may approve treatments regardless of its Schedule 1 status." }, { "id": 41171, "title": "Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026?", "short_title": "Will Maduro leave office in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Maduro leave office in 2026?", "slug": "will-maduro-leave-office-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T09:56:19.840597Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:33Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:29:06.081350Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:25:59.574491Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 472, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40899, "title": "Will Nicolás Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T09:56:19.841011Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship and during his tenure, while Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power.\n\nFollowing Maduro's ascension to presidency in the [2013 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Maduro has faced calls to be removed from both internal opposition leaders and from foreign countries such as the United States. While substantial sections of both internal and external opponents backed [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) as the legitimate leader of Venezuela from 2019 to 2023.\n\nFollowing the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and especially after Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up further, with [various threats](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) made against Venezuela, while what resembles U.S preparations for war against Venezuela have been initiated. Venezuela has responded by [mobilizing militia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) and publicly announcing their preparation for an invasion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Nicolás Maduro ceases to be President of Venezuela.", "fine_print": "If Venezuela replaces or changes the position of President of Venezuela, this question will only resolve as **Yes** if Nicolás Maduro is no longer Head of State or Head of Government.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Venezuela refers to the government that controls the majority of internationally recognised Venezuelan territory. If no government controls the majority of internationally recognised Venezuelan territory, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "Will Maduro leave office in 2026?", "post_id": 41171, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 667, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship and during his tenure, while Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power.\n\nFollowing Maduro's ascension to presidency in the [2013 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Maduro has faced calls to be removed from both internal opposition leaders and from foreign countries such as the United States. While substantial sections of both internal and external opponents backed [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) as the legitimate leader of Venezuela from 2019 to 2023.\n\nFollowing the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and especially after Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up further, with [various threats](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) made against Venezuela, while what resembles U.S preparations for war against Venezuela have been initiated. Venezuela has responded by [mobilizing militia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) and publicly announcing their preparation for an invasion." }, { "id": 41169, "title": "Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?", "short_title": "Gene editing for new condition in 2026?", "url_title": "Gene editing for new condition in 2026?", "slug": "gene-editing-for-new-condition-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-11T08:54:51.947927Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:27Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T00:28:16.314026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:25:27.483028Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 374, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T01:42:04.620699Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40897, "title": "Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-11T08:54:51.948287Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is genetic engineering technique which allows the genomes of living organisms to be modified. Discovered in the 2000s and seeing further development during the 2010s and 2020s, the technology has undergone medical trials for conditions as varied as cancer, diabetes, AIDS and blindness, while also being used to create gene edited food.\n\nAlthough numerous trials have taken place, only two conditions have had CRISPR treatments be approved by the FDA (US), MHRA (UK) or EMA (EU). Both conditions being inherited blood disorders, the same treatment was separately approved for both [sickle cell disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease) and [beta thalassemia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_thalassemia), in which [hematopoietic stem cells](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hematopoietic_stem_cell) are removed from the body, edited using CRISPR to disrupt repression of [fetal hemoglobin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetal_hemoglobin) production, and then infused back into the patient.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the US FDA, UK MHRA, or the EU Commission authorizes the use or sale of a therapy whose primary mechanism directly editing the patient's genomic DNA for any human condition other than sickle cell disease and beta thalassemia before January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": " Authorizations include emergency or temporary authorizations.", "short_title": "Gene editing for new condition in 2026?", "post_id": 41169, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 418, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[CRISPR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CRISPR_gene_editing) is genetic engineering technique which allows the genomes of living organisms to be modified. Discovered in the 2000s and seeing further development during the 2010s and 2020s, the technology has undergone medical trials for conditions as varied as cancer, diabetes, AIDS and blindness, while also being used to create gene edited food.\n\nAlthough numerous trials have taken place, only two conditions have had CRISPR treatments be approved by the FDA (US), MHRA (UK) or EMA (EU). Both conditions being inherited blood disorders, the same treatment was separately approved for both [sickle cell disease](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sickle_cell_disease) and [beta thalassemia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta_thalassemia), in which [hematopoietic stem cells](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hematopoietic_stem_cell) are removed from the body, edited using CRISPR to disrupt repression of [fetal hemoglobin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fetal_hemoglobin) production, and then infused back into the patient." } ] }
