Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6346, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40592, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-november-21-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.119302Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T07:52:08.531012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.385740Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:59:48.179451Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:59:48.179451Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40168, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.119810Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40556,\"question_id\":40131}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 29, 2025 and before November 21, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40592, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762253865.138086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.538 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762253865.138086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.538 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5959206912984413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 24.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40556,\"question_id\":40131}}`" }, { "id": 40577, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "short_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "url_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "slug": "us-military-in-nigeria-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:27:28.737901Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:16:10.788965Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:27.866873Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:19:03.599165Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:19:03.599165Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40150, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:27:28.738254Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack within Nigeria's internationally recognised territory.", "fine_print": "Cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact do not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "post_id": 40577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763165760.472309, "end_time": 1763343418.55, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763165760.472309, "end_time": 1763343418.55, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14489480817928405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8176137788112516, 0.5059588371182123, 0.019471595033083537, 0.01936509307245438, 1.5202438251747874, 0.6073814044351306, 2.617214566258501, 0.0, 0.00741623973729105, 3.678772650018006, 0.23276409647518145, 0.06594989638399314, 0.025302524918872856, 0.0, 1.2326849405276246, 0.11871635072222733, 0.0, 0.07059083564021496, 0.04606515460131248, 0.4946796668638314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1147878510099504, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.2934054833375044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038881009225659245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7126735024003407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036618791251766876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31705007854692663 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 162, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"" }, { "id": 40576, "title": "Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?", "short_title": "US attacks Nigeria before 2027", "url_title": "US attacks Nigeria before 2027", "slug": "us-attacks-nigeria-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:20:36.038394Z", "published_at": "2025-11-03T09:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T15:37:08.146309Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T09:32:55.727157Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40149, "title": "Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:20:36.038833Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-08T09:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-08T09:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early November 2025, according to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), \n\n> In a message posted to Truth Social on Saturday, President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum, stating the U.S. military may go into Nigeria \"guns-a-blazing\" to attack Islamic terrorists for the \"killing of Christians\" if the West African nation does not deal with them.\n\n> Trump has highlighted concerns about the safety of Christians in Nigeria, which has long faced suggestions by some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. During his first administration, Trump placed Nigeria on the U.S. religious freedom watchlist, but former President Joe Biden lifted that designation during his administration.\n\n> Trump has posted on Truth Social multiple times about Nigeria, increasing the intensity of his comments and actions he intends to take against Nigeria, starting with the designation as a \"country of particular concern\" and escalating to threats against aid and potential military action.\n\n> \"If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, 'guns-a-blazing,' to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,\" Trump wrote. \"I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!\"\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-christians-face-existential-threat-nigeria-adds-country-watch-list-2025-10-31/) the Nigerian President and Foreign Ministry have responded to the threats, as it is also reported that the US President has been pressured from some religious groups to continue to raise concerns in the West African country.\n\nBut will all the political rhetoric amount to any US physical military attack on Nigeria's territory over the next 14 months?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the United States carries out a military attack against Nigeria's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Nigeria's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Nigerian territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Nigeria occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 40576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763048217.96541, "end_time": 1764841648.805, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763048217.96541, "end_time": 1764841648.805, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19923384701387162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.27129778345399286, 0.0, 1.0645648491280946, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2921752393703385, 0.0, 0.8531036150923881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7515367129268021, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early November 2025, according to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), \n\n> In a message posted to Truth Social on Saturday, President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum, stating the U.S. military may go into Nigeria \"guns-a-blazing\" to attack Islamic terrorists for the \"killing of Christians\" if the West African nation does not deal with them.\n\n> Trump has highlighted concerns about the safety of Christians in Nigeria, which has long faced suggestions by some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. During his first administration, Trump placed Nigeria on the U.S. religious freedom watchlist, but former President Joe Biden lifted that designation during his administration.\n\n> Trump has posted on Truth Social multiple times about Nigeria, increasing the intensity of his comments and actions he intends to take against Nigeria, starting with the designation as a \"country of particular concern\" and escalating to threats against aid and potential military action.\n\n> \"If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, 'guns-a-blazing,' to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,\" Trump wrote. \"I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!\"\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-christians-face-existential-threat-nigeria-adds-country-watch-list-2025-10-31/) the Nigerian President and Foreign Ministry have responded to the threats, as it is also reported that the US President has been pressured from some religious groups to continue to raise concerns in the West African country.\n\nBut will all the political rhetoric amount to any US physical military attack on Nigeria's territory over the next 14 months?" }, { "id": 40574, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "slug": "will-umaro-sissoco-embalo-be-re-elected-president-of-guinea-bissau-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T10:56:35.805949Z", "published_at": "2025-11-01T11:20:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:11:40.552812Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T11:21:00.565412Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40147, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T10:56:35.806327Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Umaro Sissoco Embaló wins the 2025 Guinea-Bissau [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election), according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The first round of voting is expected to be held on November 23, 2025, with a runoff taking place if no candidate receives a majority.", "post_id": 40574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763165490.185578, "end_time": 1763305562.255, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763165490.185578, "end_time": 1763305562.255, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8521661905016769 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 2.4856576896418114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua." }, { "id": 40572, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-december-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T03:41:40.518501Z", "published_at": "2025-11-01T03:42:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:27:39.212867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T03:42:35.584027Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40146, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T03:41:40.518929Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before December 15, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763071097.429, "end_time": 1763537246.773, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763071097.429, "end_time": 1763537246.773, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.14340055794867967 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company." }, { "id": 40571, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-burbank-california-in-november-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:22:08.755723Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:14:32.446801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T02:25:01.180307Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40145, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:22:08.756109Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Hollywood Burbank Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763106947.54652, "end_time": 1763635441.561, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763106947.54652, "end_time": 1763635441.561, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9952462341747652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 3.1684594134136477 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). " }, { "id": 40570, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-yuma-arizona-in-november-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:06:08.352932Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T19:21:31.383228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T02:06:47.770970Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40144, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:06:08.353306Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Yuma International Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763106970.198667, "end_time": 1763635736.034, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763106970.198667, "end_time": 1763635736.034, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.708621698450878 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 133, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). " }, { "id": 40564, "title": "Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?", "short_title": "Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth or moon?", "url_title": "Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth or moon?", "slug": "will-asteroid-2024-yr4-hit-earth-or-moon", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T22:06:06.227013Z", "published_at": "2025-11-03T01:44:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T01:31:01.735794Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T01:48:13.668915Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-05T01:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:15:02.333956Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:15:02.333956Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40135, "title": "Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T22:06:06.227387Z", "open_time": "2025-11-05T01:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-09T01:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-09T01:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth/Moon?](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/Will-the-asteroid-YR-hit-the-moon)\n\nWhen 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, early orbit calculations included a small but non-zero chance of an Earth impact in December 2032, prompting concern and increased observation. However, by mid-2025, additional tracking—especially with the James Webb Space Telescope—helped astronomers refine its trajectory. NASA now states that 2024 YR4 [<u>“poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/)[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nMoreover, no credible model currently supports a collision prior to 2032. As to the Moon, however, the [primary models estimate a \\~4 percent chance](https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Will_asteroid_2024_YR4_hit_the_Moon) of an impact occurring on December 22, 2032. The probabilities will continue to be refined as the asteroid returns into view and new measurements are made.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Jan. 1, 2033, the asteroid 2024 YR4 is confirmed to have collided with Earth or the Moon, according to official scientific institutions (e.g., NASA, ESA, JAXA, U.S. Geological Survey) or credible scientific/astronomical media reporting on such an event.", "fine_print": "“Hit” means a direct physical impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 (not fragments, dust trails, or other debris) with the Earth’s surface or atmosphere or the Moon.", "post_id": 40564, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762738250.994703, "end_time": 1793878379.649, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762738250.994703, "end_time": 1793878379.649, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.03476917022693318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8431287456062875, 1.6804589557110647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth/Moon?](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/Will-the-asteroid-YR-hit-the-moon)\n\nWhen 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, early orbit calculations included a small but non-zero chance of an Earth impact in December 2032, prompting concern and increased observation. However, by mid-2025, additional tracking—especially with the James Webb Space Telescope—helped astronomers refine its trajectory. NASA now states that 2024 YR4 [<u>“poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/)[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nMoreover, no credible model currently supports a collision prior to 2032. As to the Moon, however, the [primary models estimate a \\~4 percent chance](https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Will_asteroid_2024_YR4_hit_the_Moon) of an impact occurring on December 22, 2032. The probabilities will continue to be refined as the asteroid returns into view and new measurements are made." }, { "id": 40556, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-november-21-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T14:25:06.689014Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T09:15:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T11:56:24.141627Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-30T14:25:25.591844Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40131, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T14:25:06.689470Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-13T11:56:05.271022Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 29, 2025 and before November 21, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763002779.615492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763002779.615492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.865579932015535 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07368891131100444, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 1.352952162715849, 1.1952070725955561, 4.55409700188474 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.750259306508376, "peer_score": 6.43895022379356, "coverage": 0.6187561467418666, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.986574951011704, "spot_peer_score": 8.8131004361855, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 30.750259306508376, "peer_archived_score": 6.43895022379356, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.8131004361855, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 287, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |" }, { "id": 40555, "title": "Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese chips sold to Russia by 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese chips sold to Russia by 2030?", "slug": "chinese-chips-sold-to-russia-by-2030", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T12:13:47.036926Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T09:15:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T16:27:59.316607Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-06T09:17:18.698485Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:15:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40130, "title": "Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T12:13:47.037301Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:15:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T09:15:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T09:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators, and due to sanctions cannot legally acquire western AI chips. China is therefore its only potential source of legal access to AI chips, though to date there have been no reported cases of China exporting domestically produced AI accelerators. \n\nIt is unclear if China would be willing to sell compute to Russia. China is itself highly constrained on its access to AI compute due to US export controls, and would face further pressure from the US and Europe if it opted to sell AI chips to Russia. China may prefer to export only cloud access to AI chips and applications, rather than direct export of chips to Russia. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before 2030, either Russia or China publicly acknowledges the export of domestically-produced Chinese AI accelerators to Russia. ", "fine_print": "Public acknowledgment entails statements by the Russian or Chinese governments, that domestically-produced Chinese chips have been sold and physically exported to Russia from China. \n\nDomestically-produced Chinese AI accelerators are those designed and sold by Chinese firms e.g. Huawei Ascend chips. Not all components or production stages need to occur within China, rather the chips needs to be the product of a Chinese firm (e.g. an Ascend 910C using a TSMC produced die would count as a Chinese chip)", "post_id": 40555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762878468.728184, "end_time": 1770827268.579, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762878468.728184, "end_time": 1770827268.579, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7992631566251797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators, and due to sanctions cannot legally acquire western AI chips. China is therefore its only potential source of legal access to AI chips, though to date there have been no reported cases of China exporting domestically produced AI accelerators. \n\nIt is unclear if China would be willing to sell compute to Russia. China is itself highly constrained on its access to AI compute due to US export controls, and would face further pressure from the US and Europe if it opted to sell AI chips to Russia. China may prefer to export only cloud access to AI chips and applications, rather than direct export of chips to Russia. " }, { "id": 40554, "title": "Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?", "short_title": "Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?", "url_title": "Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?", "slug": "russian-theft-of-frontier-ai-weights-by-2030", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T11:37:31.912459Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T09:13:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T19:14:49.800563Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-06T09:15:19.352431Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:13:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40129, "title": "Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T11:37:31.912865Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:13:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T09:13:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T09:13:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Model weights represent the core intellectual property of frontier AI systems, the product of hundreds of millions of dollars in compute and research. Once stolen, weights can be deployed without replicating the training process, making them extremely high-value targets for cyber espionage.\n\nRAND has identified [38 distinct attack vectors](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA2849-1.html) for model weight theft, ranging from insider threats to supply chain compromises. As of 2025, most frontier AI labs maintain security below the standards RAND recommends for defending against state-level threats.\n\nRussia currently has no indigenous ability to produce compute, and is entirely reliant on smuggling or Chinese exports for compute. This strictly limits its ability to train models near the frontier of capabilities, meaning theft of model weights is a potential pathway for it to enhance its AI capabilities. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, before 2030, a frontier AI developer publicly accuses a Russian actor with successfully stealing their model weights. ", "fine_print": "A frontier AI developer is defined as a firm that has trained an AI model >10^26 FLOPS in size.\n\nA Russian actor is defined as an entity that is based within Russia or affiliated with the Russian government.", "post_id": 40554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762542879.516525, "end_time": 1770491679.357, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762542879.516525, "end_time": 1770491679.357, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.7 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Model weights represent the core intellectual property of frontier AI systems, the product of hundreds of millions of dollars in compute and research. Once stolen, weights can be deployed without replicating the training process, making them extremely high-value targets for cyber espionage.\n\nRAND has identified [38 distinct attack vectors](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA2849-1.html) for model weight theft, ranging from insider threats to supply chain compromises. As of 2025, most frontier AI labs maintain security below the standards RAND recommends for defending against state-level threats.\n\nRussia currently has no indigenous ability to produce compute, and is entirely reliant on smuggling or Chinese exports for compute. This strictly limits its ability to train models near the frontier of capabilities, meaning theft of model weights is a potential pathway for it to enhance its AI capabilities. " }, { "id": 40552, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before 2027?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before 2027?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T01:42:31.720330Z", "published_at": "2025-11-02T10:02:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:16:37.377339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-02T10:04:38.305585Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:02:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40128, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T01:42:31.720736Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:02:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-07T10:02:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-07T10:02:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763165786.483696, "end_time": 1764776935.338, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763165786.483696, "end_time": 1764776935.338, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.5475061819170131 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8337106037827644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company." }, { "id": 40546, "title": "Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?", "short_title": ">10,000 GPU cluster in Russia by 2027?", "url_title": ">10,000 GPU cluster in Russia by 2027?", "slug": "10000-gpu-cluster-in-russia-by-2027", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-29T10:42:59.104669Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T09:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T23:34:33.141511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T09:45:35.209647Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-09T09:43:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40107, "title": "Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-29T10:42:59.105123Z", "open_time": "2025-11-09T09:43:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T09:43:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T09:43:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators or any of their key inputs, and so is entirely reliant on overseas supply. Sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine war cut it off from legal access to western AI chips, and there have to date been no reported cases of Chinese exports of AI chips.\n\nUnverified reporting places Russian AI leader Sberbank’s stockpile of GPUs at [9,000 as of February 2025](http://rferl.org/a/deepseek-russian-ai-sber-yandex-kandinsky-censorship/33305704.html). Though it is unlikely these are all integrated into a single data centre campus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before 2027, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that there is an AI data center with ≥10,000 H100e of AI accelerators located within Russia.", "fine_print": "This question will only resolve as Yes if the ≥10,000 H100e of AI accelerators is located at a single location, multiple centers that collectively reach ≥10,000 H100e will not qualify.\n\nCredible sources do not need to specifically report a value of \"≥10,000 H100e\" so long as they report an amount of AI accelerators reaching that metric, this question will resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 40546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763076862.731982, "end_time": 1770731813.049, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763076862.731982, "end_time": 1770731813.049, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators or any of their key inputs, and so is entirely reliant on overseas supply. Sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine war cut it off from legal access to western AI chips, and there have to date been no reported cases of Chinese exports of AI chips.\n\nUnverified reporting places Russian AI leader Sberbank’s stockpile of GPUs at [9,000 as of February 2025](http://rferl.org/a/deepseek-russian-ai-sber-yandex-kandinsky-censorship/33305704.html). Though it is unlikely these are all integrated into a single data centre campus." }, { "id": 40543, "title": "Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?", "short_title": "Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?", "url_title": "Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?", "slug": "russian-llm-in-chatbot-arena-top-100-before-2027", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-28T15:10:35.715814Z", "published_at": "2025-11-02T10:25:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T01:32:15.823596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-02T10:26:21.908968Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:25:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40104, "title": "Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-28T15:10:35.716256Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:25:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-07T10:25:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-07T10:25:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [LMSYS Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is a community-driven evaluation platform where users compare language models through pairwise blind comparisons. With over 5 million user votes, the Arena uses an Elo rating system (similar to chess rankings) to rank LLMs based on real-world conversational performance. \n\nAs of November 2025, no Russian-developed LLMs are within the top 100 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, despite significant domestic efforts such as GigaChat (developed by Sberbank) and YandexGPT (developed by Yandex).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, at any point after November 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, a Russian developed model appears in the top 100 on the [LMArena Overall Text Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text).", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the organisation listed by LMArena for the model, must be headquartered in Russia.", "post_id": 40543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762738324.82709, "end_time": 1764837361.769, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762738324.82709, "end_time": 1764837361.769, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.2395599770694596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [LMSYS Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is a community-driven evaluation platform where users compare language models through pairwise blind comparisons. With over 5 million user votes, the Arena uses an Elo rating system (similar to chess rankings) to rank LLMs based on real-world conversational performance. \n\nAs of November 2025, no Russian-developed LLMs are within the top 100 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, despite significant domestic efforts such as GigaChat (developed by Sberbank) and YandexGPT (developed by Yandex)." }, { "id": 40542, "title": "Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?", "short_title": "GigaChat ≥100B parameters open model before 2027?", "url_title": "GigaChat ≥100B parameters open model before 2027?", "slug": "gigachat-100b-parameters-open-model-before-2027", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-28T14:02:01.478546Z", "published_at": "2025-11-02T09:57:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T15:34:27.611931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-02T09:58:11.307587Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T09:57:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40103, "title": "Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-28T14:02:01.478999Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T09:57:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-07T09:57:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-07T09:57:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2025, [GigaChat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GigaChat) released three open-source models based on the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture with 20 billion total parameters (3.3 billion active). GigaChat is developed by SaluteDevices, a subsidiary of Sberbank, one of Russia's largest financial institutions and a leading player in Russian AI development. While the team has released smaller open-weights models, they maintain proprietary versions (GigaChat Pro and GigaChat MAX) for which no architectural details or weights have been disclosed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, GigaChat, SaluteDevice, or Sberbank publicly releases model weights for a large language model with ≥100 billion total parameters.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question the weights must be downloadable without requiring individual per-user approval or payment.\n\nJoint ventures where GigaChat provides the primary technical contribution will count, while models where GigaChat only provides fine-tuning or other secondary contributions will not qualify for this question.", "post_id": 40542, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762270456.689302, "end_time": 1764837394.657, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762270456.689302, "end_time": 1764837394.657, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.49 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2025, [GigaChat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GigaChat) released three open-source models based on the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture with 20 billion total parameters (3.3 billion active). GigaChat is developed by SaluteDevices, a subsidiary of Sberbank, one of Russia's largest financial institutions and a leading player in Russian AI development. While the team has released smaller open-weights models, they maintain proprietary versions (GigaChat Pro and GigaChat MAX) for which no architectural details or weights have been disclosed." }, { "id": 40539, "title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA through December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA through December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-sean-duffy-be-acting-administrator-of-nasa-through-december-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-27T22:42:00.170047Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T22:50:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:10:38.381796Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-27T22:50:45.088640Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-28T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:41:34.368982Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40101, "title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-27T22:42:00.170611Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-01T22:50:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-01T22:50:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNN: [Sean Duffy irks White House as drama over top job at NASA seeps into public view](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/27/politics/sean-duffy-nasa-transportation)\n\n> Some Trump administration officials, including at the White House, have expressed frustration with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy in recent weeks as internal wrangling over who will lead NASA spilled into public view, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.\n\nSpace Explored: [Will NASA get a permanent Administrator any time soon?](https://spaceexplored.com/2025/10/26/will-nasa-get-a-permanent-administrator-any-time-soon/)\n\n> It’s been nine months into President Trump’s second term, and the government’s most popular and beloved agency is still without proper leadership. Some rumbles have made it sound like that could change soon, but we’re still awaiting official word.\n\n> Isaacman is back… maybe\n\n> According to [Bloomberg](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/billionaire-isaacman-met-with-trump-over-top-nasa-job/ar-AA1OamQb?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds\\&utm_source=ActiveCampaign\\&utm_medium=email\\&utm_content=Another%20chance%20for%20Jared%20Isaacman%3F\\&utm_campaign=FIRST%20UP%20-%202025-10-10), Jared Isaacman has had conversations both with President Trump and Acting Administrator Sean Duffy about taking over the agency once more. While discussions have reportedly been tense, they have also been promising that Isaacman is being renominated.\n\n> While Duffy seems to be enjoying himself at NASA, being one of the more forgiving positions in US politics, he also heads the Department of Transportation, a much more serious and, at the moment, dire agency in need of leadership. That hasn’t stopped Duffy from suggesting NASA should come under the DoT’s governance, potentially gaining more benefits under a cabinet-level department.\n\n> However, for now, Duffy agrees he cannot stay on at NASA forever, but no limit has been set for when a replacement is to be nominated.\n\nSean Duffy is a former reality TV contestant on MTV's Real World. In 2025 he was confirmed by the US Senate as the Transportation Secretary under President Donald J. Trump. In July 2025 he was [appointed](https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/07/10/transportation-secretary-sean-duffy-picked-as-interim-nasa-administrator/) by President Trump as acting NASA Administrator, under the auspices of the [Federal Vacancies Reform Act](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44997) of 1998.\n\nSee also from Metaculus: [Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/)[\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/#comments)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sean Duffy is NASA’s acting administrator continuously through December 31, 2025, according to [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/nasa-leadership/) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": " If he leaves the role before then, the question resolves as **No**. ", "post_id": 40539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763165427.63988, "end_time": 1763397590.121, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763165427.63988, "end_time": 1763397590.121, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.3406403589345803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNN: [Sean Duffy irks White House as drama over top job at NASA seeps into public view](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/27/politics/sean-duffy-nasa-transportation)\n\n> Some Trump administration officials, including at the White House, have expressed frustration with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy in recent weeks as internal wrangling over who will lead NASA spilled into public view, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.\n\nSpace Explored: [Will NASA get a permanent Administrator any time soon?](https://spaceexplored.com/2025/10/26/will-nasa-get-a-permanent-administrator-any-time-soon/)\n\n> It’s been nine months into President Trump’s second term, and the government’s most popular and beloved agency is still without proper leadership. Some rumbles have made it sound like that could change soon, but we’re still awaiting official word.\n\n> Isaacman is back… maybe\n\n> According to [Bloomberg](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/billionaire-isaacman-met-with-trump-over-top-nasa-job/ar-AA1OamQb?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds\\&utm_source=ActiveCampaign\\&utm_medium=email\\&utm_content=Another%20chance%20for%20Jared%20Isaacman%3F\\&utm_campaign=FIRST%20UP%20-%202025-10-10), Jared Isaacman has had conversations both with President Trump and Acting Administrator Sean Duffy about taking over the agency once more. While discussions have reportedly been tense, they have also been promising that Isaacman is being renominated.\n\n> While Duffy seems to be enjoying himself at NASA, being one of the more forgiving positions in US politics, he also heads the Department of Transportation, a much more serious and, at the moment, dire agency in need of leadership. That hasn’t stopped Duffy from suggesting NASA should come under the DoT’s governance, potentially gaining more benefits under a cabinet-level department.\n\n> However, for now, Duffy agrees he cannot stay on at NASA forever, but no limit has been set for when a replacement is to be nominated.\n\nSean Duffy is a former reality TV contestant on MTV's Real World. In 2025 he was confirmed by the US Senate as the Transportation Secretary under President Donald J. Trump. In July 2025 he was [appointed](https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/07/10/transportation-secretary-sean-duffy-picked-as-interim-nasa-administrator/) by President Trump as acting NASA Administrator, under the auspices of the [Federal Vacancies Reform Act](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44997) of 1998.\n\nSee also from Metaculus: [Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/)[\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/#comments)" }, { "id": 40523, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-12-a-share-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.924545Z", "published_at": "2025-10-26T14:00:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T18:40:04.338305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:41.222510Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T14:00:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:59:48.179451Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:59:48.179451Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40084, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.925231Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T14:00:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-04T18:40:03.950694Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40440,\"question_id\":40010}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high during normal trading hours of greater than or equal to \\$12.00 after October 21, 2025 and before November 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40523, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761492342.255015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.10500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15250000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761492342.255015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.10500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15250000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.895, 0.10500000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.11947291820530286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 11.0, 2.0, 3.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 11.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.849336467179, "peer_score": 2.025986158929844, "coverage": 0.9839233170173786, "relative_legacy_score": -0.029239990793477014, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839233170173786, "spot_peer_score": 2.1725966852054124, "spot_baseline_score": 83.99595874895317, "baseline_archived_score": 82.849336467179, "peer_archived_score": 2.025986158929844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.029239990793477014, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1725966852054124, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.99595874895317 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40440,\"question_id\":40010}}`" }, { "id": 40522, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-385-trillion-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.357949Z", "published_at": "2025-10-26T13:28:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:59:00.484391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.589853Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-26T13:28:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:59:48.179451Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T16:59:48.179451Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40083, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.358355Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T13:28:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40435,\"question_id\":40005}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for December 31, 2025 is less than \\$38,500,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 40522, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761490582.12879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761490582.12879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8512500000000001, 0.14875 ], "means": [ 0.2895140025159767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40435,\"question_id\":40005}}`" }, { "id": 40521, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-doj-indict-christopher-krebs-or-miles-taylor-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:54.864340Z", "published_at": "2025-10-31T18:40:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:43:58.425126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:55.104085Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "open_time": "2025-10-31T18:40:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40082, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:54.864757Z", "open_time": "2025-10-31T18:40:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:43:58.063716Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n> \n> This question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37348,\"question_id\":36710,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348). If the community prediction on 2025-11-08 03:03:24 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40521, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761940136.288627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761940136.288627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2896310763888888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.790023809753464, "peer_score": 5.1100309955421785, "coverage": 0.9679745316505433, "relative_legacy_score": -0.005297406162824576, "weighted_coverage": 0.9679745316505433, "spot_peer_score": 6.214148932321604, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 51.790023809753464, "peer_archived_score": 5.1100309955421785, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.005297406162824576, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.214148932321604, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n> \n> This question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37348,\"question_id\":36710,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40517, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-30?", "short_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "url_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "slug": "gpcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.902719Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T04:27:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:00.335706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:53.147084Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T04:27:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40078, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-30?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.903127Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T04:27:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:43:59.808019Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:22) is 130.93. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of GPC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-30, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40517, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761801414.642505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761801414.642505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5269726562500002 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 12.0, 7.0, 11.0, 21.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.214237720097092, "peer_score": -1.6435769767740234, "coverage": 0.9716900451978047, "relative_legacy_score": -0.016638568310540305, "weighted_coverage": 0.9716900451978047, "spot_peer_score": -1.988004170664098, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "baseline_archived_score": -11.214237720097092, "peer_archived_score": -1.6435769767740234, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.016638568310540305, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.988004170664098, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:22) is 130.93. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`" } ] }
