Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6396, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40655, "title": "Between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC), will UEFA remove at least one Israeli club from the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or Europa Conference League due to a formal UEFA decision that explicitly targets Israel’s participation?", "short_title": "Between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC), will UEFA remove at least one Israeli club from the", "url_title": "Between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC), will UEFA remove at least one Israeli club from the", "slug": "between-october-15-and-december-31-2025-utc-will-uefa-remove-at-least-one-israeli-club-from-the", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:13.301571Z", "published_at": "2025-11-15T12:46:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T14:17:00.214521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:13.518272Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T14:16:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T14:16:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-15T12:46:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40251, "title": "Between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC), will UEFA remove at least one Israeli club from the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or Europa Conference League due to a formal UEFA decision that explicitly targets Israel’s participation?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:13.301987Z", "open_time": "2025-11-15T12:46:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T14:16:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T14:16:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T14:16:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T14:16:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: Israeli clubs are participating in UEFA club competitions in the 2025/26 season. Maccabi Tel-Aviv appears on UEFA’s site as participating in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League. Maccabi Haifa appears on UEFA’s site as participating in the 2025/26 UEFA Europa Conference League. Wikipedia’s 2025/26 Europa Conference League page lists Israeli club Beitar Jerusalem among qualifying round participants, and notes the league phase begins on October 2, 2025. The Israel Football Association (IFA) governs football in Israel and has been a member of UEFA since the early 1990s; Israeli clubs participate in UEFA competitions under IFA affiliation.\n\nPotential suspension context: Reporting indicates UEFA is moving toward a vote to suspend Israel, with a majority of UEFA’s 20-member Executive Committee expected to support any such vote. If adopted, the suspension would bar both Israeli national and club teams from participating in UEFA competitions. Separate reporting states a decision could come as early as the week of September 29, 2025, though UEFA says no meetings are scheduled until December 3; the situation is politically sensitive, with pressure to exclude Israel and opposition voiced by the U.S. government.\n\nWhy this matters for the forecast window: The 2025/26 UEFA club competitions’ league phases start in early October (e.g., the Europa Conference League league phase begins October 2, 2025 ). If UEFA adopts a suspension or exclusion targeting Israeli teams during the forecast window, it could result in one or more Israeli clubs being removed mid-competition.\n\nDefinitions and scope (with authoritative references for terms):\n- “UEFA club competitions” means the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Europa Conference League as organized by UEFA in the 2025/26 season. See general overviews: Champions League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League) Europa League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Europa_League) Europa Conference League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Europa_Conference_League).\n- “Israeli club” means a professional association football club affiliated with the Israel Football Association (IFA); see IFA overview (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Football_Association).\n- “UEFA decision” means a formal, published decision by UEFA (e.g., by the UEFA Executive Committee, UEFA Emergency Panel, the UEFA Control, Ethics and Disciplinary Body (CEDB), or Appeals Body) that is posted on UEFA’s official website (uefa.com) under news, decisions, or competition communications.\n- “Targets Israel’s participation” means the decision explicitly references Israel or Israeli teams as the subject of suspension/exclusion (e.g., suspension of the Israel Football Association from UEFA competitions; exclusion/suspension of Israeli clubs from UEFA competitions). Decisions about scheduling, venues, safety, or general regulations that do not explicitly suspend/exclude Israel or Israeli clubs do not qualify.\n- “Removed” means an Israeli club that was listed by UEFA.com as a participant in the 2025/26 UCL/UEL/UECL (e.g., in the league phase participants list or club page) is officially excluded/suspended or otherwise barred from playing further matches in that competition due to the above “UEFA decision,” with effect during the forecast window. UEFA may use terms such as “exclusion,” “expulsion,” or “suspension”; any of these outcomes count if the decision explicitly targets Israeli participation.\n\nCurrent participation examples for verification (non-exhaustive):\n- Maccabi Tel-Aviv club page at UEFA.com for UCL 2025/26.\n- Maccabi Haifa club page at UEFA.com for UECL 2025/26.\n- UECL 2025/26 overview (league phase start and qualifying participants).\n\nContext on possible decision timing and scope: AP reports a majority of UEFA’s 20-member Executive Committee is expected to support a vote to suspend Israel, which would bar national and club teams. The Guardian reports insiders believe a suspension vote has a strong chance, with timing possibly “as early as next week,” though UEFA has stated no meetings are scheduled until December 3. These create plausible uncertainty within the October–December window.\n\nStart and end times: All dates/times in this question are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The event window starts at 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and ends at 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c534bbc196db3671\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to YES if, between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, at least one Israeli club initially listed as a participant in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League, Europa League, or Europa Conference League is officially removed (excluded, suspended, expelled, or otherwise barred from playing further matches in that competition) as the direct result of a formal UEFA decision that explicitly targets Israel’s participation.\n\nPrimary resolution sources:\n- Official UEFA publications on uefa.com (e.g., UEFA Executive Committee decisions, Emergency Panel decisions, CEDB/Appeals Body decisions, official competition communications, and news posts). Verifiable via:\n - UEFA.com competition pages (e.g., club pages or league phase participants lists) showing the club’s removal or status change (example club pages: Maccabi Tel-Aviv UCL 2025/26 ; Maccabi Haifa UECL 2025/26 ).\n - UEFA.com news and media sections where decisions are published (e.g., https://www.uefa.com/insideuefa/news/).\n\nSecondary resolution sources (if needed due to unavailability or ambiguity of UEFA.com publications):\n- Credible wire-service or major newspaper reporting explicitly confirming the UEFA decision and its effect on club participation, such as the Associated Press or The Guardian. Any secondary source must clearly state that UEFA has issued a decision suspending/excluding Israeli teams or the IFA and that this decision has resulted in the removal of at least one Israeli club from a listed UEFA club competition during the window.\n\nExclusions (do NOT count as removal for this question):\n- Sporting elimination due to match results.\n- Administrative or disciplinary exclusions unrelated to Israel’s participation (e.g., ineligible player, match-fixing, financial irregularities).\n- Postponements, relocation to neutral venues, or safety/security measures that do not suspend/exclude Israeli teams.\n- Voluntary withdrawal by the club or federation absent a qualifying UEFA decision.\n- Decisions that apply only to national teams and do not remove any club from a UEFA club competition in the window.\n- Announcements in the window whose effective date is after 2025-12-31 (i.e., the removal must take effect during the window).\n\nResolution procedure:\n1) Check UEFA.com’s official announcements and competition pages for any decisions in the window. Confirm that the text of the decision explicitly targets Israel or Israeli teams.\n2) Verify that an Israeli club (as defined) that was listed as a participant in the 2025/26 UCL/UEL/UECL is no longer eligible or listed, and/or is marked excluded/suspended in the competition during the window.\n3) If UEFA.com evidence is unavailable or unclear, corroborate using AP or The Guardian reporting.\n\nResolve YES if steps (1)–(3) confirm at least one qualifying removal occurred in the window. Resolve NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40655, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763216073.48183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763216073.48183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2656976744186045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: Israeli clubs are participating in UEFA club competitions in the 2025/26 season. Maccabi Tel-Aviv appears on UEFA’s site as participating in the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League. Maccabi Haifa appears on UEFA’s site as participating in the 2025/26 UEFA Europa Conference League. Wikipedia’s 2025/26 Europa Conference League page lists Israeli club Beitar Jerusalem among qualifying round participants, and notes the league phase begins on October 2, 2025. The Israel Football Association (IFA) governs football in Israel and has been a member of UEFA since the early 1990s; Israeli clubs participate in UEFA competitions under IFA affiliation.\n\nPotential suspension context: Reporting indicates UEFA is moving toward a vote to suspend Israel, with a majority of UEFA’s 20-member Executive Committee expected to support any such vote. If adopted, the suspension would bar both Israeli national and club teams from participating in UEFA competitions. Separate reporting states a decision could come as early as the week of September 29, 2025, though UEFA says no meetings are scheduled until December 3; the situation is politically sensitive, with pressure to exclude Israel and opposition voiced by the U.S. government.\n\nWhy this matters for the forecast window: The 2025/26 UEFA club competitions’ league phases start in early October (e.g., the Europa Conference League league phase begins October 2, 2025 ). If UEFA adopts a suspension or exclusion targeting Israeli teams during the forecast window, it could result in one or more Israeli clubs being removed mid-competition.\n\nDefinitions and scope (with authoritative references for terms):\n- “UEFA club competitions” means the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League, and UEFA Europa Conference League as organized by UEFA in the 2025/26 season. See general overviews: Champions League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Champions_League) Europa League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Europa_League) Europa Conference League (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Europa_Conference_League).\n- “Israeli club” means a professional association football club affiliated with the Israel Football Association (IFA); see IFA overview (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel_Football_Association).\n- “UEFA decision” means a formal, published decision by UEFA (e.g., by the UEFA Executive Committee, UEFA Emergency Panel, the UEFA Control, Ethics and Disciplinary Body (CEDB), or Appeals Body) that is posted on UEFA’s official website (uefa.com) under news, decisions, or competition communications.\n- “Targets Israel’s participation” means the decision explicitly references Israel or Israeli teams as the subject of suspension/exclusion (e.g., suspension of the Israel Football Association from UEFA competitions; exclusion/suspension of Israeli clubs from UEFA competitions). Decisions about scheduling, venues, safety, or general regulations that do not explicitly suspend/exclude Israel or Israeli clubs do not qualify.\n- “Removed” means an Israeli club that was listed by UEFA.com as a participant in the 2025/26 UCL/UEL/UECL (e.g., in the league phase participants list or club page) is officially excluded/suspended or otherwise barred from playing further matches in that competition due to the above “UEFA decision,” with effect during the forecast window. UEFA may use terms such as “exclusion,” “expulsion,” or “suspension”; any of these outcomes count if the decision explicitly targets Israeli participation.\n\nCurrent participation examples for verification (non-exhaustive):\n- Maccabi Tel-Aviv club page at UEFA.com for UCL 2025/26.\n- Maccabi Haifa club page at UEFA.com for UECL 2025/26.\n- UECL 2025/26 overview (league phase start and qualifying participants).\n\nContext on possible decision timing and scope: AP reports a majority of UEFA’s 20-member Executive Committee is expected to support a vote to suspend Israel, which would bar national and club teams. The Guardian reports insiders believe a suspension vote has a strong chance, with timing possibly “as early as next week,” though UEFA has stated no meetings are scheduled until December 3. These create plausible uncertainty within the October–December window.\n\nStart and end times: All dates/times in this question are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The event window starts at 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and ends at 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c534bbc196db3671\"}}`" }, { "id": 40654, "title": "Will the U.S. add the International Criminal Court (or any of its Rome Statute organs) to OFAC’s SDN List between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. add the International Criminal Court (or any of its Rome Statute organs) to OFAC’s SDN", "url_title": "Will the U.S. add the International Criminal Court (or any of its Rome Statute organs) to OFAC’s SDN", "slug": "will-the-us-add-the-international-criminal-court-or-any-of-its-rome-statute-organs-to-ofacs-sdn", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.906177Z", "published_at": "2025-11-15T02:35:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T04:06:00.322227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:13.117315Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T04:05:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T04:05:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-15T02:35:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40250, "title": "Will the U.S. add the International Criminal Court (or any of its Rome Statute organs) to OFAC’s SDN List between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.906589Z", "open_time": "2025-11-15T02:35:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T04:05:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T04:05:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T04:05:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T04:05:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Definition and scope of the target entity:\n- The International Criminal Court (ICC) is an intergovernmental organization and international tribunal seated in The Hague, Netherlands, established under the Rome Statute in 2002.\n- The Rome Statute defines the “organs of the Court” in Article 34 as: (a) The Presidency; (b) An Appeals Division, a Trial Division and a Pre‑Trial Division; (c) The Office of the Prosecutor; and (d) The Registry. For this question, “organs of the Court” refers exactly to those four categories, and designations of any such organ as a distinct entity count for resolution.\n\nU.S. sanctions authority and program context (as of 2025-10-01):\n- On February 6, 2025, Executive Order (E.O.) 14203, “Imposing Sanctions on the International Criminal Court,” declared a national emergency related to the ICC’s actions and created sanctions authorities targeting persons involved in ICC efforts to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute certain “protected persons.” The order defines “person” to include individuals and entities.\n- On July 1, 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued the International Criminal Court‑Related Sanctions Regulations at 31 CFR part 528 to implement E.O. 14203.\n- OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) List contains the names of individuals and entities whose property and interests in property are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from dealing with them. This question operationalizes “entity‑wide sanctions” as the ICC (or any of its Article 34 organs) being added as an entity to the SDN List (i.e., being a “blocked person”), or an official designation notice stating the ICC (or such an organ) is a blocked person under E.O. 14203/31 CFR part 528.\n\nRecent and historical context relevant to forecasting:\n- Reuters reported on September 22, 2025, that the United States was considering imposing sanctions “as soon as this week” against the entire ICC, with multiple sources indicating an “entity‑wide” move was being weighed. The report described potential operational impacts and noted the ICC took precautionary steps (e.g., salary payments) in anticipation of possible sanctions.\n- Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported the ICC was preparing for potential U.S. sanctions, and noted the U.S. House of Representatives had voted in January 2025 to sanction the court over cases involving Israel.\n- For historical context, in 2021 President Biden terminated the national emergency and revoked the 2020 order that had authorized sanctions related to certain ICC personnel. In 2020, OFAC had published ICC‑related sanctions regulations pursuant to E.O. 13928, targeting certain ICC officials.\n\nDisambiguations and exclusions for clarity:\n- The International Criminal Court (ICC) is distinct from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and from the International Chamber of Commerce (also sometimes abbreviated “ICC”). Only actions naming the International Criminal Court or any organ defined in Article 34 of the Rome Statute count.\n- Sanctions limited to individuals (e.g., specific prosecutors or judges), visa bans, or other punitive measures not amounting to the ICC (or an Article 34 organ) being a blocked person do not count.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"b706af2d68312498\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will the United States designate the International Criminal Court (or any of its Article 34 organs) as a blocked person on OFAC’s SDN List between 2025‑10‑15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC?\n\nStart and end dates (UTC):\n- Eligible actions must occur between 2025‑10‑15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC (inclusive).\n\nOperational definitions:\n- “International Criminal Court” refers to the intergovernmental organization and tribunal seated in The Hague, Netherlands, established under the Rome Statute.\n- “Organs of the Court” means the four categories enumerated in Article 34 of the Rome Statute: (a) The Presidency; (b) An Appeals Division, a Trial Division and a Pre‑Trial Division; (c) The Office of the Prosecutor; (d) The Registry.\n- “Blocked person on OFAC’s SDN List” means the entity appears by name on the Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons List, which consists of individuals and entities whose property and interests in property are blocked and with whom U.S. persons are generally prohibited from dealing.\n\nResolution rules:\n- YES if, during the time window, either of the following occurs:\n 1) The exact entity name “International Criminal Court” (or an Article 34 organ named as a distinct entity, e.g., “Office of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court”) is added as a named entry to OFAC’s SDN List.\n 2) The U.S. government (Treasury/OFAC or the White House/State in coordination with OFAC) publishes an official designation action during the time window that explicitly states the International Criminal Court (or any Article 34 organ) is designated as a blocked person under E.O. 14203 and/or 31 CFR part 528, such that the entity is subject to blocking sanctions applicable to SDNs. If list publication timing differs from the announcement but the announcement is within the window and unambiguously designates the entity as a blocked person, count as YES.\n- NO otherwise, including if:\n • Only individual ICC officials are sanctioned; or\n • Only travel bans/visa restrictions are imposed; or\n • Measures target persons supporting the ICC but not the ICC or its Article 34 organs; or\n • Any relevant action occurs wholly before 2025‑10‑15 00:00:00 UTC or after 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nPrimary resolution sources:\n- OFAC’s SDN List (for presence or absence of the ICC or any Article 34 organ as a blocked person).\n- Official designation announcements and/or regulatory notices establishing the applicable sanctions program authority (E.O. 14203; 31 CFR part 528).\n\nNotes to resolvers:\n- Disregard similarly named entities such as the International Court of Justice or the International Chamber of Commerce; only the ICC as defined above or its Article 34 organs qualify.\n- Use the entity name as it appears in official sources; abbreviations alone (e.g., “ICC”) are insufficient unless the source clearly identifies the International Criminal Court as defined above.\n- If there is any ambiguity, adjudicate based on whether the official action expressly renders the ICC (or its Article 34 organ) a “blocked person” subject to SDN‑style blocking sanctions under the cited authorities.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40654, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763179011.51609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763179011.51609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.735, 0.265 ], "means": [ 0.28722988505747127 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 11.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Definition and scope of the target entity:\n- The International Criminal Court (ICC) is an intergovernmental organization and international tribunal seated in The Hague, Netherlands, established under the Rome Statute in 2002.\n- The Rome Statute defines the “organs of the Court” in Article 34 as: (a) The Presidency; (b) An Appeals Division, a Trial Division and a Pre‑Trial Division; (c) The Office of the Prosecutor; and (d) The Registry. For this question, “organs of the Court” refers exactly to those four categories, and designations of any such organ as a distinct entity count for resolution.\n\nU.S. sanctions authority and program context (as of 2025-10-01):\n- On February 6, 2025, Executive Order (E.O.) 14203, “Imposing Sanctions on the International Criminal Court,” declared a national emergency related to the ICC’s actions and created sanctions authorities targeting persons involved in ICC efforts to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute certain “protected persons.” The order defines “person” to include individuals and entities.\n- On July 1, 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued the International Criminal Court‑Related Sanctions Regulations at 31 CFR part 528 to implement E.O. 14203.\n- OFAC’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (SDN) List contains the names of individuals and entities whose property and interests in property are blocked, and U.S. persons are generally prohibited from dealing with them. This question operationalizes “entity‑wide sanctions” as the ICC (or any of its Article 34 organs) being added as an entity to the SDN List (i.e., being a “blocked person”), or an official designation notice stating the ICC (or such an organ) is a blocked person under E.O. 14203/31 CFR part 528.\n\nRecent and historical context relevant to forecasting:\n- Reuters reported on September 22, 2025, that the United States was considering imposing sanctions “as soon as this week” against the entire ICC, with multiple sources indicating an “entity‑wide” move was being weighed. The report described potential operational impacts and noted the ICC took precautionary steps (e.g., salary payments) in anticipation of possible sanctions.\n- Earlier in 2025, Reuters reported the ICC was preparing for potential U.S. sanctions, and noted the U.S. House of Representatives had voted in January 2025 to sanction the court over cases involving Israel.\n- For historical context, in 2021 President Biden terminated the national emergency and revoked the 2020 order that had authorized sanctions related to certain ICC personnel. In 2020, OFAC had published ICC‑related sanctions regulations pursuant to E.O. 13928, targeting certain ICC officials.\n\nDisambiguations and exclusions for clarity:\n- The International Criminal Court (ICC) is distinct from the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and from the International Chamber of Commerce (also sometimes abbreviated “ICC”). Only actions naming the International Criminal Court or any organ defined in Article 34 of the Rome Statute count.\n- Sanctions limited to individuals (e.g., specific prosecutors or judges), visa bans, or other punitive measures not amounting to the ICC (or an Article 34 organ) being a blocked person do not count.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"b706af2d68312498\"}}`" }, { "id": 40653, "title": "In December 2025, will UN2720 “Collected from crossings” trucks total at least 2,170 (≥70 per day on average)?", "short_title": "In December 2025, will UN2720 “Collected from crossings” trucks total at least 2,170 (≥70 per day on", "url_title": "In December 2025, will UN2720 “Collected from crossings” trucks total at least 2,170 (≥70 per day on", "slug": "in-december-2025-will-un2720-collected-from-crossings-trucks-total-at-least-2170-70-per-day-on", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.403214Z", "published_at": "2025-11-15T09:19:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T10:50:00.253956Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.719422Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T10:49:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T10:49:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-15T09:19:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40249, "title": "In December 2025, will UN2720 “Collected from crossings” trucks total at least 2,170 (≥70 per day on average)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.403615Z", "open_time": "2025-11-15T09:19:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T10:49:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T10:49:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T10:49:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T10:49:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of indicator and current context (as of 2025-09-30)\n- Indicator and source: The UN2720 Mechanism’s Monitoring & Tracking Dashboard reports “UN‑Manifested Humanitarian Aid Movements since 19 May 2025,” including items “Collected From any of the crossings along Gaza’s perimeter,” with metrics for Pallets, Trucks, Weight (t), and Requests. The dashboard explains that trucks on the Gaza side are typically smaller than those arriving from the Israeli side, so the numbers are not directly comparable across sides. The UN2720 Mechanism is the official UN‑facilitated system to register, coordinate, monitor, and verify humanitarian consignments to Gaza across corridors (Jordan, maritime via Ashdod/CMC, West Bank/Israel), with monitors deployed to crossings, warehouses, and distribution sites; it supports pre‑clearance, coordination, and end‑use verification.\n- Recent data and volatility: OCHA reported that “Between 12 and 22 September 2025, 436 truckloads were collected through the UN 2720 mechanism from Gaza’s crossings, compared with about 1,040 truckloads collected in the previous 11‑day period between 1 and 11 September, marking a 58 per cent decrease”. In August, about a quarter of the supplies entering Gaza via the UN2720 mechanism came through Jordan (mostly via Allenby), underlining corridor dependence and potential chokepoints. For broader context on targets, OCHA has referenced an overall objective of 600 trucks/day entering Gaza in a ceasefire scenario (with a mix of commercial, UN/INGO, and Red Crescent/bilateral donations), illustrating the scale of needs relative to actual flows.\n- Recurring publications: UN and UNOPS have published recurring monthly “UN 2720 Mechanism for Gaza – Monthly Overviews” (infographics) through at least August 2025, indicating a regular cadence of mechanism data releases that can corroborate figures.\nWhy this threshold? Early September (1–11) averaged about 94.5/day, while 12–22 September averaged about 39.6/day, showing substantial variability; a December threshold equivalent to 70/day (2,170 trucks over 31 days) sits between these baselines, aiming for a high‑uncertainty, decision‑relevant target.\nDefinitions\n- UN2720 Mechanism: The UN‑facilitated system for registering, coordinating, monitoring, and verifying humanitarian consignments to Gaza, including pre‑clearance with relevant authorities, corridor‑specific coordination, and monitoring by deployed UN2720 Monitors. Official site: https://info.un2720.org/\n- Collected from crossings: As per the UN2720 dashboard, items “Collected From any of the crossings along Gaza’s perimeter” on the Gaza side; dashboard metrics include “Trucks” (count of trucks), “Pallets,” “Weight (t),” and “Requests.” Note that trucks on the Gaza side are typically smaller than those on the Israeli side, so counts are not directly comparable to trucks reaching the crossing from outside. Dashboard: https://app.un2720.org/tracking/collected\n- Truck (for this question): The “Trucks” metric as displayed on the UN2720 Monitoring & Tracking Dashboard under the “Collected From Crossings” view.\n- Average daily number (for this question): For December 2025, this is equivalent to total “Trucks – Collected from crossings” between 2025‑12‑01 00:00:00 and 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 (UTC), divided by 31. To avoid rounding ambiguity, the resolution uses the equivalent total threshold of 2,170 trucks (31 × 70).\nStatus quo takeaway (as of late September 2025): UN2720‑tracked aid “collected” within Gaza showed sharp intra‑month volatility in September, with mid‑September flows roughly half of early September, highlighting uncertainty heading into Q4 2025. The mechanism’s routing mix (e.g., Jordan/Allenby) and operational constraints remain key determinants of realized truck counts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"92f0c04cb74866cf\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: In December 2025, will UN2720 “Collected from crossings” trucks total at least 2,170 (i.e., an average of ≥70 per day over 31 days)?\nTimeframe: Consider aid collected between 2025‑12‑01 00:00:00 UTC and 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC.\nPrimary metric and method:\n- Use the UN2720 Monitoring & Tracking Dashboard’s “Collected From Crossings” view (https://app.un2720.org/tracking/collected) and the “Trucks” metric.\n- Determine the total number of trucks collected within the timeframe above. If the dashboard provides a date‑range selector for December 1–31, use it. If instead it provides a daily series, sum the “Trucks – Collected” daily values for the specified UTC window. If both are available, either method is acceptable if totals match; if not, prefer the native December 1–31 total.\n- Resolve YES if the total is ≥2,170; otherwise resolve NO.\nData handling and edge cases:\n- Time zone: Use UTC for the inclusion window. If the dashboard’s time filtering or labeling lacks an explicit time zone, interpret all dates/times as UTC for this question’s purposes.\n- If the UN2720 dashboard is temporarily inaccessible or not rendering the December breakdown at 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC, attempt again within a reasonable time on 2025‑12‑31. If still inaccessible, use the most recent OCHA oPt “Humanitarian Situation Update” or equivalent OCHA publication that explicitly states the total number of truckloads/trucks “collected through the UN 2720 mechanism” for December 2025; if multiple, prefer the latest OCHA consolidated month‑end figure on the OCHA oPt site; ReliefWeb mirrors are acceptable sources. Precedent for such reporting (e.g., September 2025 mid‑month and early‑month totals) exists in OCHA Situation Update #326. Monthly UN2720 “Monthly Overviews” published by UN/UNOPS (as listed on ReliefWeb) may also be used if they explicitly provide the December 2025 “Collected – Trucks” total.\n- Terminology alignment: This question uses the “Trucks” unit precisely as displayed by the UN2720 dashboard under “Collected From Crossings” (not “trucks arriving at the crossing” on the Israeli side), consistent with the dashboard’s own explanatory note about differing truck sizes across the boundary.\n- Conflicting figures: If different official UN sources for December 2025 show conflicting totals, prefer the UN2720 dashboard’s December‑range total; if unavailable, prefer the latest OCHA oPt consolidated month‑end figure, as per the precedence of OCHA Situation Updates referencing UN2720 data.\n- Verification ease: A resolver should be able to capture a screenshot or export from the UN2720 dashboard showing the December 1–31 “Collected – Trucks” total and compare it to the 2,170 threshold at or immediately after 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC.\nResolution: YES if the December 2025 total “Collected – Trucks” is ≥2,170; NO otherwise.\nCitations supporting definitions and precedent for data sources: UN2720 mechanism definitions and dashboard metrics ; OCHA Situation Update #326 with explicit “truckloads collected through the UN 2720 mechanism” language and mid‑September vs early‑September figures ; OCHA update on August corridor shares (Jordan/Allenby) for context ; reference targets context ; recurring monthly UN2720 overviews.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40653, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763203724.417252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.698 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763203724.417252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.698 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5130116279069766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of indicator and current context (as of 2025-09-30)\n- Indicator and source: The UN2720 Mechanism’s Monitoring & Tracking Dashboard reports “UN‑Manifested Humanitarian Aid Movements since 19 May 2025,” including items “Collected From any of the crossings along Gaza’s perimeter,” with metrics for Pallets, Trucks, Weight (t), and Requests. The dashboard explains that trucks on the Gaza side are typically smaller than those arriving from the Israeli side, so the numbers are not directly comparable across sides. The UN2720 Mechanism is the official UN‑facilitated system to register, coordinate, monitor, and verify humanitarian consignments to Gaza across corridors (Jordan, maritime via Ashdod/CMC, West Bank/Israel), with monitors deployed to crossings, warehouses, and distribution sites; it supports pre‑clearance, coordination, and end‑use verification.\n- Recent data and volatility: OCHA reported that “Between 12 and 22 September 2025, 436 truckloads were collected through the UN 2720 mechanism from Gaza’s crossings, compared with about 1,040 truckloads collected in the previous 11‑day period between 1 and 11 September, marking a 58 per cent decrease”. In August, about a quarter of the supplies entering Gaza via the UN2720 mechanism came through Jordan (mostly via Allenby), underlining corridor dependence and potential chokepoints. For broader context on targets, OCHA has referenced an overall objective of 600 trucks/day entering Gaza in a ceasefire scenario (with a mix of commercial, UN/INGO, and Red Crescent/bilateral donations), illustrating the scale of needs relative to actual flows.\n- Recurring publications: UN and UNOPS have published recurring monthly “UN 2720 Mechanism for Gaza – Monthly Overviews” (infographics) through at least August 2025, indicating a regular cadence of mechanism data releases that can corroborate figures.\nWhy this threshold? Early September (1–11) averaged about 94.5/day, while 12–22 September averaged about 39.6/day, showing substantial variability; a December threshold equivalent to 70/day (2,170 trucks over 31 days) sits between these baselines, aiming for a high‑uncertainty, decision‑relevant target.\nDefinitions\n- UN2720 Mechanism: The UN‑facilitated system for registering, coordinating, monitoring, and verifying humanitarian consignments to Gaza, including pre‑clearance with relevant authorities, corridor‑specific coordination, and monitoring by deployed UN2720 Monitors. Official site: https://info.un2720.org/\n- Collected from crossings: As per the UN2720 dashboard, items “Collected From any of the crossings along Gaza’s perimeter” on the Gaza side; dashboard metrics include “Trucks” (count of trucks), “Pallets,” “Weight (t),” and “Requests.” Note that trucks on the Gaza side are typically smaller than those on the Israeli side, so counts are not directly comparable to trucks reaching the crossing from outside. Dashboard: https://app.un2720.org/tracking/collected\n- Truck (for this question): The “Trucks” metric as displayed on the UN2720 Monitoring & Tracking Dashboard under the “Collected From Crossings” view.\n- Average daily number (for this question): For December 2025, this is equivalent to total “Trucks – Collected from crossings” between 2025‑12‑01 00:00:00 and 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 (UTC), divided by 31. To avoid rounding ambiguity, the resolution uses the equivalent total threshold of 2,170 trucks (31 × 70).\nStatus quo takeaway (as of late September 2025): UN2720‑tracked aid “collected” within Gaza showed sharp intra‑month volatility in September, with mid‑September flows roughly half of early September, highlighting uncertainty heading into Q4 2025. The mechanism’s routing mix (e.g., Jordan/Allenby) and operational constraints remain key determinants of realized truck counts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"92f0c04cb74866cf\"}}`" }, { "id": 40652, "title": "UEFA Champions League 2025/26: Will Atlético de Madrid be ranked 1–16 in the league-phase table at 23:59 CET on December 10, 2025?", "short_title": "UEFA Champions League 2025/26: Will Atlético de Madrid be ranked 1–16 in the league-phase table at 2", "url_title": "UEFA Champions League 2025/26: Will Atlético de Madrid be ranked 1–16 in the league-phase table at 2", "slug": "uefa-champions-league-202526-will-atletico-de-madrid-be-ranked-116-in-the-league-phase-table-at-2", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.024229Z", "published_at": "2025-11-15T00:14:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T01:45:00.278959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.229115Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T01:44:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T01:44:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-15T00:14:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40248, "title": "UEFA Champions League 2025/26: Will Atlético de Madrid be ranked 1–16 in the league-phase table at 23:59 CET on December 10, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:12.024656Z", "open_time": "2025-11-15T00:14:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T01:44:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T01:44:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T01:44:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T01:44:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30: UEFA introduced a new Champions League format beginning in 2024/25, with a single “league phase” involving 36 clubs, each playing eight matches against eight different opponents (four home, four away). Teams are ranked in one table; the top eight qualify directly for the Round of 16, and places 9–24 enter two-legged play-offs, while 25–36 are eliminated.\n\nFor the 2025/26 season, UEFA’s official match calendar lists the league-phase matchdays as: MD1 (16–18 Sep 2025), MD2 (30 Sep–1 Oct 2025), MD3 (21/22 Oct 2025), MD4 (4/5 Nov 2025), MD5 (25/26 Nov 2025), MD6 (9/10 Dec 2025), MD7 (20/21 Jan 2026), MD8 (28 Jan 2026). UEFA’s running fixtures/results page confirms specific MD6 fixtures across Tuesday, 9 December, and Wednesday, 10 December 2025; notably, PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético de Madrid is scheduled for Tuesday, 9 December 2025. The league phase is underway by mid-September, and standings are updated on UEFA.com as results come in.\n\nResolution source: UEFA maintains an official league-phase standings page for the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 that displays the current ranked table of clubs and is updated throughout the competition.\n\nDefinitions and links:\n- “UEFA Champions League 2025/26 league phase” refers to UEFA’s first-round competition format featuring 36 teams ranked in a single table, with eight matches per club. Official competition pages: fixtures/results and standings published on UEFA.com.\n- “Atlético de Madrid” (also referred to by UEFA as “Atleti”) means the Spanish club commonly known in English as Atlético Madrid; see club page on UEFA.com and general reference on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atl%C3%A9tico_Madrid.\n- “Rank” means the ordinal position shown on UEFA’s official 2025/26 league-phase standings page at the specified check time.\n- Time zone: “CET” is Central European Time (UTC+1 in December); see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_European_Time.\n\nStatus quo summary: By MD6 (9–10 Dec 2025), all clubs are scheduled to have completed six of their eight league-phase matches, and UEFA’s standings page will reflect their positions accordingly. This cutoff around 1–16 is competitive and plausibly uncertain for Atlético de Madrid under the 36-team league table.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"489361b523a6a1a4\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Check the official UEFA Champions League 2025/26 league-phase standings page (UEFA.com) at 23:59 CET (UTC+1) on Wednesday, December 10, 2025.\n\n- Outcome: Yes if Atlético de Madrid’s displayed numerical rank on that page is between 1 and 16 inclusive at that time; No otherwise.\n- What to read: Use the ordinal rank exactly as shown on the UEFA standings page; do not recompute standings or apply external tie-breakers.\n- Eligible results period: Consider all official 2025/26 league-phase matches played from 00:00 UTC on September 16, 2025 up to the check time; matches played or validated after the check time do not affect resolution.\n- If the live standings page is inaccessible at the check time: Use a reliable archived snapshot of the same page captured as close as possible to 23:59 CET on December 10, 2025 and no later than December 31, 2025. Prefer archives showing the timestamp and the page content consistent with UEFA’s standings.\n- Naming: Atlético de Madrid may be listed by UEFA as “Atleti” or “Atlético de Madrid”; any such official naming on UEFA.com refers to the same club for the purposes of this question.\n\nThe question resolves on December 10, 2025 (within the October 15–December 31, 2025 window). All determinations are made solely from UEFA’s official standings page or a reliable archive thereof.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40652, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763170958.210753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763170958.210753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6503750000000001 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30: UEFA introduced a new Champions League format beginning in 2024/25, with a single “league phase” involving 36 clubs, each playing eight matches against eight different opponents (four home, four away). Teams are ranked in one table; the top eight qualify directly for the Round of 16, and places 9–24 enter two-legged play-offs, while 25–36 are eliminated.\n\nFor the 2025/26 season, UEFA’s official match calendar lists the league-phase matchdays as: MD1 (16–18 Sep 2025), MD2 (30 Sep–1 Oct 2025), MD3 (21/22 Oct 2025), MD4 (4/5 Nov 2025), MD5 (25/26 Nov 2025), MD6 (9/10 Dec 2025), MD7 (20/21 Jan 2026), MD8 (28 Jan 2026). UEFA’s running fixtures/results page confirms specific MD6 fixtures across Tuesday, 9 December, and Wednesday, 10 December 2025; notably, PSV Eindhoven vs Atlético de Madrid is scheduled for Tuesday, 9 December 2025. The league phase is underway by mid-September, and standings are updated on UEFA.com as results come in.\n\nResolution source: UEFA maintains an official league-phase standings page for the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 that displays the current ranked table of clubs and is updated throughout the competition.\n\nDefinitions and links:\n- “UEFA Champions League 2025/26 league phase” refers to UEFA’s first-round competition format featuring 36 teams ranked in a single table, with eight matches per club. Official competition pages: fixtures/results and standings published on UEFA.com.\n- “Atlético de Madrid” (also referred to by UEFA as “Atleti”) means the Spanish club commonly known in English as Atlético Madrid; see club page on UEFA.com and general reference on Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atl%C3%A9tico_Madrid.\n- “Rank” means the ordinal position shown on UEFA’s official 2025/26 league-phase standings page at the specified check time.\n- Time zone: “CET” is Central European Time (UTC+1 in December); see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_European_Time.\n\nStatus quo summary: By MD6 (9–10 Dec 2025), all clubs are scheduled to have completed six of their eight league-phase matches, and UEFA’s standings page will reflect their positions accordingly. This cutoff around 1–16 is competitive and plausibly uncertain for Atlético de Madrid under the 36-team league table.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"489361b523a6a1a4\"}}`" }, { "id": 40651, "title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will the United States publish an official instrument that explicitly caps tariffs on EU- or Japan‑origin pharmaceutical products at 15% ad valorem?", "short_title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will the United States publish an official instrument that expl", "url_title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will the United States publish an official instrument that expl", "slug": "by-december-31-2025-235959-utc-will-the-united-states-publish-an-official-instrument-that-expl", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:11.564015Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T23:04:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:35:00.288886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:11.831912Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T00:34:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T00:34:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T23:04:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40247, "title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will the United States publish an official instrument that explicitly caps tariffs on EU- or Japan‑origin pharmaceutical products at 15% ad valorem?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:11.564439Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T23:04:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T00:34:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T00:34:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T00:34:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T00:34:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30:\n- EU framework implementation: A Federal Register notice amending the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) to implement elements of the August 21, 2025 U.S.–EU framework states that, for automobiles and parts, the combined tariff rate (MFN plus reduced Section 232 rate) is capped at 15% ad valorem for EU‑origin products and that certain goods (including generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients and chemical precursors) are treated separately. CBP subsequently issued guidance explaining HTSUS implementation details, including an exemption from reciprocal tariffs for EU generic pharmaceuticals (using heading 9903.02.77), effective September 1, 2025.\n- Japan agreement implementation: A Federal Register notice implementing tariff‑related elements of the U.S.–Japan agreement establishes a baseline 15% ad valorem tariff structure for nearly all Japanese imports, with sector‑specific treatment for automobiles, aerospace, generic pharmaceuticals, and certain natural resources; it includes effective‑date and in‑transit exceptions. A White House presidential action page similarly describes the baseline 15% structure and authorizes zero reciprocal tariffs for generic pharmaceuticals and related inputs.\n- Public statements on pharmaceuticals: Reuters reported EU and Japan officials’ confidence that U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals would not exceed 15% under joint statements with Washington, referencing a 15% ceiling for EU exports including pharmaceuticals. CNN reported President Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on branded/patented pharmaceutical products effective October 1, 2025, while noting that the White House confirmed it would honor a 15% tariff cap agreed in trade deals with the EU and Japan, implying capped rates for EU/Japan‑origin pharmaceuticals.\n\nInterpretation and current uncertainty:\n- As of today, specific codified HTSUS or agency‑level text that explicitly caps EU‑ or Japan‑origin pharmaceutical products at 15% ad valorem (covering all HTSUS Chapter 30 pharmaceuticals, not only generics) has not been clearly identified in the cited notices; autos and certain sectoral carve‑outs are explicitly treated, and generic pharmaceuticals are addressed separately (exemptions/zero reciprocal tariffs), but an explicit 15% cap covering pharmaceutical products broadly would require a further instrument or explicit language.\n\nKey definitions and scope for forecasters:\n- Pharmaceutical products: For this question, “pharmaceutical products” means goods classified under HTSUS Chapter 30 (“Pharmaceutical Products”). See HTSUS Chapter 30 (U.S. International Trade Commission) at https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&filename=Chapter%2030.\n- Country of origin: Determined under U.S. non‑preferential rules of origin and CBP practice (see 19 CFR Part 102, Rules of Origin) at https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-19/chapter-I/part-102.\n- Tariff (ad valorem): A customs duty stated as a percentage of the customs value (see “Tariff” overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariff; “Ad valorem tax”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_valorem_tax).\n- EU and Japan: The European Union (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union) and Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan).\n\nWhy this is forecastable with meaningful entropy:\n- Public statements indicate intent to cap EU/Japan pharmaceutical tariffs at 15%, but codification specific to pharmaceuticals—especially patented/brand‑name drugs—may require additional instruments (e.g., HTSUS modifications or agency guidance) that could be issued or not by year‑end. The interplay between the baseline 15% Japanese tariff structure and sector‑specific carve‑outs, and the EU framework’s sectoral exemptions, leaves open whether an explicit cross‑sector cap for pharmaceuticals will be published in official text.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"dbd2e3d3004b59ad\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Event window and resolution time:\n- Window: From 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n- Resolve at 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nQuestion resolves “Yes” if, within the window, a U.S. official instrument is publicly posted that explicitly establishes a 15% ad valorem maximum (cap/ceiling) applicable to pharmaceutical products of EU or Japan origin, as defined below. Otherwise “No.”\n\nQualifying official instrument (any one suffices):\n- A Federal Register notice (Commerce/USTR/CBP) that amends the HTSUS or sets tariff application rules, or a Presidential Executive Order/Proclamation posted on whitehouse.gov/federalregister.gov, or a CBP CSMS bulletin/guidance, or an official USTR or Commerce directive/notice that is publicly accessible on an official.gov domain.\n\nWhat “explicitly caps at 15%” means:\n- The instrument must, in its operative language, state either: (a) “pharmaceutical” or “pharmaceutical products” or otherwise clearly reference HTSUS Chapter 30 goods and an applied tariff ceiling of 15% ad valorem for EU‑ or Japan‑origin entries; or (b) provide HTSUS modifications or headings that unambiguously result in a combined applied duty rate (base Column 1 duty plus any additional duties under Sections 232/301/IEEPA/reciprocal tariffs, etc.) not exceeding 15% ad valorem for EU‑ or Japan‑origin Chapter 30 entries.\n- The cap must apply to pharmaceutical products broadly (HTSUS Chapter 30) and not be limited solely to “generic” pharmaceuticals; instruments that only exempt generics (non‑patented pharmaceutical applications) without capping branded/patented products do not qualify.\n\nScope definitions for resolution:\n- “Pharmaceutical products”: All goods classifiable under HTSUS Chapter 30. Link: https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&filename=Chapter%2030.\n- “EU‑ or Japan‑origin”: Country of origin determined under U.S. non‑preferential rules of origin. Link: https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-19/chapter-I/part-102.\n- “Tariff” and “ad valorem”: A duty assessed as a percentage of customs value. Links: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariff and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_valorem_tax.\n- “Official instrument” and “published”: Content posted on official U.S. government sites (e.g., federalregister.gov, whitehouse.gov, cbp.gov, ustr.gov, commerce.gov) that is public by the resolution time.\n\nVerification guidance for resolvers:\n- Check Federal Register notices implementing EU or Japan frameworks and any subsequent amendments for explicit pharmaceutical 15% cap language or HTSUS headings that produce a 15% ceiling.\n- Review White House presidential actions and Executive Orders that might modify reciprocal tariffs or sectoral treatment.\n- Review CBP CSMS bulletins/guidance for tariff application instructions to Chapter 30 entries from EU or Japan (note: existing CSMS already exempts generics but does not constitute a broad cap).\n- Cross‑check credible reporting only as confirmation of official issuance (e.g., Reuters/CNN), but the resolution requires the instrument itself to meet the explicit cap standard; statements of intent alone do not qualify.\n\nEdge cases:\n- If multiple instruments exist and one meets the explicit cap standard, resolve “Yes,” even if others are silent or conflicting.\n- If an instrument establishes a 15% ceiling for only EU or only Japan pharmaceutical products, resolve “Yes.”\n- If an instrument caps only a subset of Chapter 30 (e.g., specific headings) and leaves others above 15%, resolve “No.”\n- If an instrument provides exemptions or zero reciprocal tariffs for generic pharmaceuticals only, with no cap on branded/patented products, resolve “No”.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40651, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763164795.873298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763164795.873298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3327441860465115 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30:\n- EU framework implementation: A Federal Register notice amending the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTSUS) to implement elements of the August 21, 2025 U.S.–EU framework states that, for automobiles and parts, the combined tariff rate (MFN plus reduced Section 232 rate) is capped at 15% ad valorem for EU‑origin products and that certain goods (including generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients and chemical precursors) are treated separately. CBP subsequently issued guidance explaining HTSUS implementation details, including an exemption from reciprocal tariffs for EU generic pharmaceuticals (using heading 9903.02.77), effective September 1, 2025.\n- Japan agreement implementation: A Federal Register notice implementing tariff‑related elements of the U.S.–Japan agreement establishes a baseline 15% ad valorem tariff structure for nearly all Japanese imports, with sector‑specific treatment for automobiles, aerospace, generic pharmaceuticals, and certain natural resources; it includes effective‑date and in‑transit exceptions. A White House presidential action page similarly describes the baseline 15% structure and authorizes zero reciprocal tariffs for generic pharmaceuticals and related inputs.\n- Public statements on pharmaceuticals: Reuters reported EU and Japan officials’ confidence that U.S. tariffs on pharmaceuticals would not exceed 15% under joint statements with Washington, referencing a 15% ceiling for EU exports including pharmaceuticals. CNN reported President Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on branded/patented pharmaceutical products effective October 1, 2025, while noting that the White House confirmed it would honor a 15% tariff cap agreed in trade deals with the EU and Japan, implying capped rates for EU/Japan‑origin pharmaceuticals.\n\nInterpretation and current uncertainty:\n- As of today, specific codified HTSUS or agency‑level text that explicitly caps EU‑ or Japan‑origin pharmaceutical products at 15% ad valorem (covering all HTSUS Chapter 30 pharmaceuticals, not only generics) has not been clearly identified in the cited notices; autos and certain sectoral carve‑outs are explicitly treated, and generic pharmaceuticals are addressed separately (exemptions/zero reciprocal tariffs), but an explicit 15% cap covering pharmaceutical products broadly would require a further instrument or explicit language.\n\nKey definitions and scope for forecasters:\n- Pharmaceutical products: For this question, “pharmaceutical products” means goods classified under HTSUS Chapter 30 (“Pharmaceutical Products”). See HTSUS Chapter 30 (U.S. International Trade Commission) at https://hts.usitc.gov/reststop/file?release=currentRelease&filename=Chapter%2030.\n- Country of origin: Determined under U.S. non‑preferential rules of origin and CBP practice (see 19 CFR Part 102, Rules of Origin) at https://www.ecfr.gov/current/title-19/chapter-I/part-102.\n- Tariff (ad valorem): A customs duty stated as a percentage of the customs value (see “Tariff” overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tariff; “Ad valorem tax”: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ad_valorem_tax).\n- EU and Japan: The European Union (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union) and Japan (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan).\n\nWhy this is forecastable with meaningful entropy:\n- Public statements indicate intent to cap EU/Japan pharmaceutical tariffs at 15%, but codification specific to pharmaceuticals—especially patented/brand‑name drugs—may require additional instruments (e.g., HTSUS modifications or agency guidance) that could be issued or not by year‑end. The interplay between the baseline 15% Japanese tariff structure and sector‑specific carve‑outs, and the EU framework’s sectoral exemptions, leaves open whether an explicit cross‑sector cap for pharmaceuticals will be published in official text.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"dbd2e3d3004b59ad\"}}`" }, { "id": 40650, "title": "On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?", "short_title": "On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?", "url_title": "On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?", "slug": "on-tracs-december-21-2025-snapshot-will-ices-total-detained-population-be-at-least-60000", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:10.807831Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T20:20:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T21:51:00.214407Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:11.147929Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T21:50:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T21:50:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T20:20:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40246, "title": "On TRAC’s December 21, 2025 snapshot, will ICE’s total detained population be at least 60,000?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:10.808243Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T20:20:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T21:50:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T21:50:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T21:50:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T21:50:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and status quo as of today (2025-10-01)\n- What is ICE and who runs immigration detention? U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is a federal law enforcement agency within the Department of Homeland Security; ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) component manages civil immigration detention and removals. In the U.S., immigration detention is a civil (not criminal) form of custody used during immigration processing and removal; it is distinct from criminal incarceration and is complemented by Alternatives to Detention (ATD) programs that monitor some individuals in the community.\n\n- How is the “total detained population” typically measured? Journalistic guidance summarizing ICE data practices notes that the total detained population is counted as beds occupied at midnight on a single day (a snapshot), rather than, for example, an average across days.\n\n- Public, regularly updated source for timely snapshots: The Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) publishes an Immigration Detention Quick Facts page that displays a single total for people “held in ICE detention,” labeled with “data current as of [DATE]”. As of late September 2025, TRAC reported: “Immigration and Customs Enforcement held 59,762 in ICE detention according to data current as of September 21, 2025,” and also reported 181,210 individuals monitored by ICE ATD programs as of September 20, 2025. TRAC additionally noted that 71.5% of the 59,762 had no criminal conviction, all using date-stamped snapshots. These details underscore that TRAC’s “held in ICE detention” figure is separate from ATD counts.\n\n- ICE’s own public statistics: ICE publishes Enforcement and Removal Operations statistics and detention data products, typically on a lag (“one quarter in arrears”), and provides definitions focused on book-ins and detainee categorizations. These official dashboards are not guaranteed to publish a day-specific “currently detained” total for a selected date in December 2025 by December 31, 2025, which is why TRAC’s dated snapshots are favored for timely resolution.\n\nWhy this question and why this threshold?\n- Detention utilization has risen in 2025, but week-to-week levels respond to enforcement intensity, border flows, available capacity, and legal constraints. TRAC’s late-September snapshot (59,762) sits near the 60,000 mark, making “≥ 60,000” a salient and uncertain threshold for a late-December snapshot. Forecasters can incorporate policy developments, seasonal patterns, and facility capacity dynamics when forming a view.\n\nKey term definitions used for this question\n- ICE: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a DHS agency. ERO, a component of ICE, manages civil immigration detention.\n- Immigration detention (civil): Custody for immigration control purposes (distinct from criminal incarceration), administered by ICE/CBP and often carried out in contracted facilities; some individuals may instead be supervised via ATD.\n- Total detained population (for resolution): The single number labeled by TRAC as “held in ICE detention … according to data current as of [DATE]” on its Immigration Detention Quick Facts page; this excludes individuals on ATD (which TRAC reports separately).\n- Snapshot: A single-day point-in-time count, conceptually measured as “beds occupied at midnight,” consistent with how such snapshots are commonly compiled and communicated in ICE-related reporting.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"0b096da21be9496f\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Outcome: YES if the TRAC total for individuals “held in ICE detention” on the designated snapshot date is ≥ 60,000; NO otherwise.\n\nSnapshot date and timezone\n- Designated snapshot date: Sunday, 2025-12-21 (UTC).\n- TRAC’s Quick Facts page displays “data current as of [DATE]” without a time; for this market, the resolver will match the calendar date shown on TRAC to the designated date. If the exact date is not shown, see fallback rules below.\n\nPrimary resolution source\n- TRAC Immigration Detention Quick Facts: https://tracreports.org/immigration/quickfacts/ \n- Use the total displayed in prose as: “Immigration and Customs Enforcement held [N] in ICE detention according to data current as of [DATE]” (or equivalent wording on that page). Record N and the displayed [DATE].\n\nDecision rule and fallbacks (applied in order)\n1) Exact-date rule: If TRAC shows “data current as of 2025-12-21,” compare its “held in ICE detention” total to 60,000 and resolve accordingly.\n2) Nearest subsequent-date rule: If no 2025-12-21 snapshot is displayed on TRAC by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, use the earliest TRAC snapshot with “data current as of” a date after 2025-12-21 and on or before 2025-12-31, and resolve based on that total.\n3) Latest prior-date rule: If no subsequent snapshot exists by 2025-12-31, use the latest TRAC snapshot with “data current as of” a date on or after 2025-12-14 and before 2025-12-22 (i.e., the nearest available prior snapshot within the week preceding the designated date).\n4) TRAC page unavailable fallback: If the Quick Facts page is inaccessible or lacks the total on 2025-12-31, use TRAC’s “What’s New” posts (https://tracreports.org/whatsnew/) that explicitly report the total “held in ICE detention” with a “data current as of [DATE]” label; apply the same date-selection logic as above. An example of the phrasing used by TRAC in such posts is: “Immigration and Customs Enforcement held 59,762 in ICE detention according to data current as of September 21, 2025”.\n5) Last-resort official source: Only if no TRAC source meeting the above criteria is accessible on 2025-12-31, the resolver may use an official ICE detention statistics file/dashboards published at https://www.ice.gov/statistics that provide a clearly date-stamped, day-specific snapshot of “currently detained” for a December 2025 date according to ICE’s own labeling; if present for 2025-12-21 (preferred) or a date between 2025-12-22 and 2025-12-31 (nearest subsequent), or between 2025-12-14 and 2025-12-20 (latest prior), apply the same date-selection logic. Note: ICE indicates some statistics are published one quarter in arrears and may not include a day-specific current total; therefore ICE is a last-resort fallback only.\n\nWhat exactly counts\n- The figure must be the TRAC Quick Facts total for those “held in ICE detention,” which is distinct from TRAC’s reported ATD enrollment; ATD participants do not count toward the detained total for this question.\n- Conceptually, the snapshot represents “beds occupied at midnight” on the snapshot date, consistent with how such daily totals are commonly counted; however, the operative value is exactly the total displayed by TRAC for its “data current as of [DATE]” snapshot.\n\nTiming and accessibility\n- All resolution steps and source checks must be performed no later than 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. Publicly accessible pages or files (including reputable web archives of the specified pages as they appeared by that time) are acceptable.\n\nTiebreakers and discrepancies\n- If multiple qualifying sources are available (e.g., TRAC Quick Facts and a TRAC “What’s New” post for the same date) and they disagree, prefer the TRAC Quick Facts page for the final number. Only use ICE official statistics if no TRAC source satisfying the rules above is accessible by the resolution deadline.\n\nExamples and current baseline (non-binding)\n- Example of acceptable wording on TRAC: “Immigration and Customs Enforcement held 59,762 in ICE detention according to data current as of September 21, 2025”. As of that late-September snapshot, the total was 59,762 and 71.5% had no criminal conviction, while ATD monitoring stood at 181,210 as of September 20, 2025; these are included here only as context and do not affect resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40650, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763156751.757754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763156751.757754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6495977011494254 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and status quo as of today (2025-10-01)\n- What is ICE and who runs immigration detention? U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is a federal law enforcement agency within the Department of Homeland Security; ICE’s Enforcement and Removal Operations (ERO) component manages civil immigration detention and removals. In the U.S., immigration detention is a civil (not criminal) form of custody used during immigration processing and removal; it is distinct from criminal incarceration and is complemented by Alternatives to Detention (ATD) programs that monitor some individuals in the community.\n\n- How is the “total detained population” typically measured? Journalistic guidance summarizing ICE data practices notes that the total detained population is counted as beds occupied at midnight on a single day (a snapshot), rather than, for example, an average across days.\n\n- Public, regularly updated source for timely snapshots: The Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC) publishes an Immigration Detention Quick Facts page that displays a single total for people “held in ICE detention,” labeled with “data current as of [DATE]”. As of late September 2025, TRAC reported: “Immigration and Customs Enforcement held 59,762 in ICE detention according to data current as of September 21, 2025,” and also reported 181,210 individuals monitored by ICE ATD programs as of September 20, 2025. TRAC additionally noted that 71.5% of the 59,762 had no criminal conviction, all using date-stamped snapshots. These details underscore that TRAC’s “held in ICE detention” figure is separate from ATD counts.\n\n- ICE’s own public statistics: ICE publishes Enforcement and Removal Operations statistics and detention data products, typically on a lag (“one quarter in arrears”), and provides definitions focused on book-ins and detainee categorizations. These official dashboards are not guaranteed to publish a day-specific “currently detained” total for a selected date in December 2025 by December 31, 2025, which is why TRAC’s dated snapshots are favored for timely resolution.\n\nWhy this question and why this threshold?\n- Detention utilization has risen in 2025, but week-to-week levels respond to enforcement intensity, border flows, available capacity, and legal constraints. TRAC’s late-September snapshot (59,762) sits near the 60,000 mark, making “≥ 60,000” a salient and uncertain threshold for a late-December snapshot. Forecasters can incorporate policy developments, seasonal patterns, and facility capacity dynamics when forming a view.\n\nKey term definitions used for this question\n- ICE: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a DHS agency. ERO, a component of ICE, manages civil immigration detention.\n- Immigration detention (civil): Custody for immigration control purposes (distinct from criminal incarceration), administered by ICE/CBP and often carried out in contracted facilities; some individuals may instead be supervised via ATD.\n- Total detained population (for resolution): The single number labeled by TRAC as “held in ICE detention … according to data current as of [DATE]” on its Immigration Detention Quick Facts page; this excludes individuals on ATD (which TRAC reports separately).\n- Snapshot: A single-day point-in-time count, conceptually measured as “beds occupied at midnight,” consistent with how such snapshots are commonly compiled and communicated in ICE-related reporting.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"0b096da21be9496f\"}}`" }, { "id": 40649, "title": "Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC o", "url_title": "Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC o", "slug": "will-the-2025-north-atlantic-accumulated-cyclone-energy-ace-be-at-least-1100-units-by-2359-utc-o", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:10.350533Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T16:47:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T18:18:00.298109Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:10.581847Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T18:17:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T18:17:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T16:47:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40245, "title": "Will the 2025 North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) be at least 110.0 units by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:10.350937Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T16:47:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T18:17:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T18:17:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T18:17:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T18:17:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Definition and units. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a metric of tropical cyclone activity computed by summing the squares of six-hourly maximum sustained winds (in knots) for all periods a system is at least tropical-storm strength (≥34 kt), and then scaling by 10−4; by convention, ACE is expressed in units of 10^4 kt^2 (often written simply as “units”). The ACE index can be summed for an individual storm, for a basin, or for a season.\n\nWhat “2025 North Atlantic ACE” means here. For this question, “2025 North Atlantic ACE” refers to the Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2) for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season as displayed on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) “North Atlantic Summary” page within the Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCR) section (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?text) That page presents a running season summary including “Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2)” for the current season and is periodically updated during the year.\n\nStatus quo as of late September 2025. As of 03:00 UTC on September 30, 2025, the season-to-date 2025 North Atlantic Total ACE was 83.2, with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, per the NHC North Atlantic Summary and corroborated by the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season overview. The CSU Real-Time North Atlantic page lists the 2025 storms and per-storm ACE values and notes that its statistics are calculated from operational best tracks from NHC/CPHC/JTWC (useful for cross-checking), though the NHC summary is the authoritative source for this question.\n\nClimatology and timing context. By convention, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, which historically covers over 97% of Atlantic tropical or subtropical cyclone activity; however, late-season storms can still form and contribute to ACE near or after the climatological peak. With ACE at 83.2 as of September 30, reaching or exceeding 110.0 by year-end would require roughly 26.8 additional ACE units across any subsequent 2025-season storms (simple arithmetic based on the stated figures).\n\nWhy this threshold. Given the season-to-date activity and the potential for October–December contributions, a 110.0-unit threshold is intended to balance plausibility for both outcomes and create room for informed disagreement among forecasters.\n\nKey terms and links for reference:\n- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy \n- NHC North Atlantic Summary (Total ACE shown): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?text \n- 2025 Atlantic hurricane season overview (context): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season \n- CSU Real-Time North Atlantic statistics (backup/cross-check): https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4207aa0e604bca06\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Outcome determination\n- Resolve YES if the NHC “North Atlantic Summary” page (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?text) displays a 2025 “Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2)” value greater than or equal to 110.0 at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. Resolve NO otherwise.\n\nPrimary resolution source (authoritative)\n- National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Cyclone Reports: North Atlantic Summary page (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?text) Use the value shown on this page for “Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2)” for the 2025 North Atlantic season at the resolution time. If needed, the resolver may rely on an archived capture (e.g., web archive) of that page as it appeared at or nearest to 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025.\n\nBackup resolution source (if the primary page is inaccessible at resolution time)\n- Colorado State University (CSU) Real-Time North Atlantic statistics page (https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic) If a single season-total ACE for 2025 is displayed on that page, use it as the “Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2)” at the resolution time. If a single total is not displayed, compute the total as the sum of the per-storm ACE values listed for all 2025 North Atlantic storms on that page as it appears at or nearest to 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, and compare that sum to the 110.0 threshold.\n\nDefinitions and units\n- ACE “units” are 10^4 kt^2 (equivalently, 10−4 kn^2), consistent with the standard definition of ACE; do not rescale values from the source pages. Use the numeric value as displayed on the resolution source page(s) (e.g., to one decimal place if that is how the value is presented).\n\nScope and timing clarifications\n- This question concerns the 2025 North Atlantic season ACE exactly as defined and displayed by the resolution source(s). It implicitly includes whatever storms the NHC assigns to the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season (regardless of formation date) in its “Total ACE” tally.\n- The resolution timestamp is 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. If the primary source displays a clearly timestamped “as of” value near that time, use the value with the timestamp closest to the resolution time. If both sources are down or unavailable at the resolution time, the question remains pending until at least one source becomes available; post-season reanalysis after December 31, 2025 does not affect resolution once a value at the resolution time has been established.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40649, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763142544.85863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.635 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763142544.85863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.635 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.365, 0.635 ], "means": [ 0.566220930232558 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 12.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Definition and units. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is a metric of tropical cyclone activity computed by summing the squares of six-hourly maximum sustained winds (in knots) for all periods a system is at least tropical-storm strength (≥34 kt), and then scaling by 10−4; by convention, ACE is expressed in units of 10^4 kt^2 (often written simply as “units”). The ACE index can be summed for an individual storm, for a basin, or for a season.\n\nWhat “2025 North Atlantic ACE” means here. For this question, “2025 North Atlantic ACE” refers to the Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2) for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season as displayed on the National Hurricane Center (NHC) “North Atlantic Summary” page within the Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCR) section (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?text) That page presents a running season summary including “Total ACE (x10^4 kt^2)” for the current season and is periodically updated during the year.\n\nStatus quo as of late September 2025. As of 03:00 UTC on September 30, 2025, the season-to-date 2025 North Atlantic Total ACE was 83.2, with 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, per the NHC North Atlantic Summary and corroborated by the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season overview. The CSU Real-Time North Atlantic page lists the 2025 storms and per-storm ACE values and notes that its statistics are calculated from operational best tracks from NHC/CPHC/JTWC (useful for cross-checking), though the NHC summary is the authoritative source for this question.\n\nClimatology and timing context. By convention, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, which historically covers over 97% of Atlantic tropical or subtropical cyclone activity; however, late-season storms can still form and contribute to ACE near or after the climatological peak. With ACE at 83.2 as of September 30, reaching or exceeding 110.0 by year-end would require roughly 26.8 additional ACE units across any subsequent 2025-season storms (simple arithmetic based on the stated figures).\n\nWhy this threshold. Given the season-to-date activity and the potential for October–December contributions, a 110.0-unit threshold is intended to balance plausibility for both outcomes and create room for informed disagreement among forecasters.\n\nKey terms and links for reference:\n- Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy \n- NHC North Atlantic Summary (Total ACE shown): https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/?text \n- 2025 Atlantic hurricane season overview (context): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Atlantic_hurricane_season \n- CSU Real-Time North Atlantic statistics (backup/cross-check): https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4207aa0e604bca06\"}}`" }, { "id": 40648, "title": "Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ May 2025 summary judgment motions in Smartmatic v. Fox between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ Ma", "url_title": "Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ Ma", "slug": "will-the-ny-supreme-court-ny-county-issue-a-written-order-adjudicating-any-part-of-the-parties-ma", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:09.950003Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T11:08:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T12:39:00.275625Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:10.159831Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T12:38:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T12:38:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T11:08:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40244, "title": "Will the NY Supreme Court (NY County) issue a written order adjudicating any part of the parties’ May 2025 summary judgment motions in Smartmatic v. Fox between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:09.950418Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T11:08:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T12:38:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T12:38:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T12:38:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T12:38:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Case overview and posture (as of 2025-10-01):\n- On May 1, 2025, both Smartmatic and Fox filed dueling motions for summary judgment in the New York defamation litigation arising from Fox’s coverage of the 2020 U.S. election. Smartmatic’s filings and subsequent reporting note that the filings were heavily redacted. No decision timetable was indicated in those reports.\n- On January 9, 2025, the Appellate Division, First Department, affirmed that Smartmatic’s direct-liability defamation claim against Fox Corporation could proceed, while dismissing the vicarious liability theory against Fox Corporation; the matter originates in Supreme Court, New York County, Index No. 151136/21 (Justice David B. Cohen).\n- On May 14, 2025, a New York appeals court ruled that Fox News could access disputed documents related to a federal bribery indictment of senior Smartmatic executives, a procedural win for Fox’s defense arguments.\n- Smartmatic’s public “Lawsuit Updates” page indicates additional 2025 activity, including a May 14, 2025 spoliation motion and an August 29, 2025 filing urging the trial court to set a trial date; it also notes that discovery closed on January 29, 2025.\n\nKey definitions and sources relevant to resolution:\n- New York Supreme Court (New York County): In New York, the “Supreme Court” is the state’s trial-level court of general jurisdiction; the New York County Supreme Court is part of this system.\n- Summary judgment: A court decision for one party without a full trial when there’s no genuine dispute of material fact and the movant is entitled to judgment as a matter of law; may be granted or denied in whole or in part.\n- NYSCEF: The New York State Courts Electronic Filing system is the official platform for e-filing and for accessing docket entries in Supreme Court cases, including New York County.\n- Time zone: Eastern Time (ET) includes Eastern Daylight Time (UTC−4) and Eastern Standard Time (UTC−5); New York observes ET.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The cross-motions for summary judgment were filed in early May 2025, are significant milestones prior to any trial, and remained pending as of late summer 2025 according to party updates, with no public decision timeline given. Whether the trial court will issue any adjudicative order on those motions by year-end 2025 is uncertain and depends on judicial scheduling and case developments.\n\nPointers to find the resolution quickly:\n- Official docket: NYSCEF public portal (iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef). Search for Index No. 151136/2021 and check for any “Decision + Order on Motion” or similar orders filed/entered within the window.\n- Media coverage (if needed): Major outlets covering the case have included ABC, CNN, and The Washington Post (for filings context).\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"eb8355dd354b03c7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will the Supreme Court of the State of New York, County of New York (trial-level court) issue a written order adjudicating any portion of the parties’ summary judgment motions in Smartmatic USA Corp. v. Fox News Network, LLC et al. (Index No. 151136/2021) between 00:00 ET on October 15, 2025 and 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?\n\nDefinitions and scope:\n- Court: “Supreme Court (New York County)” refers to the New York State Supreme Court, trial level, in New York County.\n- Case identification: Smartmatic USA Corp. v. Fox News Network, LLC et al., Index No. 151136/2021; related pleadings and motions in this index are within scope.\n- Summary judgment motion: A motion asking the court to resolve claims without trial; it can be granted or denied, in whole or in part. For this question, “the parties’ summary judgment motions” refers to the cross-motions for summary judgment filed by Smartmatic and by the Fox defendants in late April/early May 2025, including Smartmatic’s filing noted on April 30, 2025 and media-reported dueling motions on May 1, 2025.\n- Written order adjudicating any portion: A written, judge-signed “Decision and Order,” “Decision + Order on Motion,” or “Order” that grants or denies (in whole or in part) relief sought by either party’s May 2025 summary judgment motion(s). Orders limited solely to administrative matters (e.g., sealing/redaction, scheduling/adjournments, discovery or spoliation disputes, page limits, or briefing schedules) do not count unless they expressly grant or deny summary judgment relief on the merits.\n\nTiming and timestamp:\n- Time window: From 00:00 ET on October 15, 2025 through 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025.\n- Determinative timestamp: The date and time reflected on the NYSCEF docket entry for the qualifying order controls. If a PDF header (“FILED: NEW YORK COUNTY CLERK …”) shows a different file-time than the docket entry, use the docket entry’s timestamp.\n\nResolution criteria:\n- Resolves Yes if, within the time window, the NYSCEF docket for Index No. 151136/2021 shows any qualifying written order adjudicating any portion of either side’s May 2025 summary judgment motion(s) (granting or denying, in whole or in part). \n- Resolves No if no such order is docketed within the time window. A settlement, withdrawal, or other non-merits disposition without a summary-judgment ruling during the window yields No.\n\nPrimary resolution source:\n- NYSCEF public docket for Index No. 151136/2021 (via iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef). If NYSCEF is inaccessible or ambiguous, rely on credible reporting by major outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, NYT) clearly describing a qualifying order, provided the order’s filing/entry time falls within the window.\n\nEdge cases:\n- If the court issues an order that “reserves decision,” requests supplemental submissions, or states that decision is forthcoming without granting/denying summary judgment, it does not count.\n- If multiple orders are issued, any one qualifying order within the window triggers a Yes.\n- If the order is signed before the window but entered on NYSCEF within the window, use the NYSCEF entry timestamp (counts as Yes). If signed within the window but entered after the window, it does not count.\n\nNotes for forecasters (context only):\n- Dueling summary judgment motions were filed on/around May 1, 2025, with heavy redactions and no stated decision timeline.\n- The Appellate Division’s January 9, 2025 decision permitted Smartmatic’s direct-liability claim against Fox Corp. to proceed while dismissing vicarious liability, keeping core merits issues active for trial-level adjudication.\n- Subsequent developments in May–August 2025 included Fox gaining access to certain disputed documents and Smartmatic filing a spoliation motion and pressing for a trial date, underscoring continued pretrial activity without a publicly known ruling date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40648, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763123330.157936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763123330.157936, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.38280076628352494 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Case overview and posture (as of 2025-10-01):\n- On May 1, 2025, both Smartmatic and Fox filed dueling motions for summary judgment in the New York defamation litigation arising from Fox’s coverage of the 2020 U.S. election. Smartmatic’s filings and subsequent reporting note that the filings were heavily redacted. No decision timetable was indicated in those reports.\n- On January 9, 2025, the Appellate Division, First Department, affirmed that Smartmatic’s direct-liability defamation claim against Fox Corporation could proceed, while dismissing the vicarious liability theory against Fox Corporation; the matter originates in Supreme Court, New York County, Index No. 151136/21 (Justice David B. Cohen).\n- On May 14, 2025, a New York appeals court ruled that Fox News could access disputed documents related to a federal bribery indictment of senior Smartmatic executives, a procedural win for Fox’s defense arguments.\n- Smartmatic’s public “Lawsuit Updates” page indicates additional 2025 activity, including a May 14, 2025 spoliation motion and an August 29, 2025 filing urging the trial court to set a trial date; it also notes that discovery closed on January 29, 2025.\n\nKey definitions and sources relevant to resolution:\n- New York Supreme Court (New York County): In New York, the “Supreme Court” is the state’s trial-level court of general jurisdiction; the New York County Supreme Court is part of this system.\n- Summary judgment: A court decision for one party without a full trial when there’s no genuine dispute of material fact and the movant is entitled to judgment as a matter of law; may be granted or denied in whole or in part.\n- NYSCEF: The New York State Courts Electronic Filing system is the official platform for e-filing and for accessing docket entries in Supreme Court cases, including New York County.\n- Time zone: Eastern Time (ET) includes Eastern Daylight Time (UTC−4) and Eastern Standard Time (UTC−5); New York observes ET.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The cross-motions for summary judgment were filed in early May 2025, are significant milestones prior to any trial, and remained pending as of late summer 2025 according to party updates, with no public decision timeline given. Whether the trial court will issue any adjudicative order on those motions by year-end 2025 is uncertain and depends on judicial scheduling and case developments.\n\nPointers to find the resolution quickly:\n- Official docket: NYSCEF public portal (iapps.courts.state.ny.us/nyscef). Search for Index No. 151136/2021 and check for any “Decision + Order on Motion” or similar orders filed/entered within the window.\n- Media coverage (if needed): Major outlets covering the case have included ABC, CNN, and The Washington Post (for filings context).\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"eb8355dd354b03c7\"}}`" }, { "id": 40647, "title": "UK small-boat crossings in 2025: Will provisional Home Office arrivals reach at least 50,000 by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "UK small-boat crossings in 2025: Will provisional Home Office arrivals reach at least 50,000 by 23:5", "url_title": "UK small-boat crossings in 2025: Will provisional Home Office arrivals reach at least 50,000 by 23:5", "slug": "uk-small-boat-crossings-in-2025-will-provisional-home-office-arrivals-reach-at-least-50000-by-235", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:09.039362Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T10:12:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T11:43:00.202071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:09.432599Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T11:42:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T11:42:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T10:12:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40243, "title": "UK small-boat crossings in 2025: Will provisional Home Office arrivals reach at least 50,000 by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:09.039772Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T10:12:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T11:42:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T11:42:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T11:42:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T11:42:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and data source: The UK Home Office publishes provisional daily and weekly counts of people detected arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel in small boats, via the transparency pages titled “Small boat activity in the English Channel.” These pages include a “last 7 days” daily table and a weekly summary/time series dating back to 2018, updated regularly by Border Force/Home Office and intended for operational transparency. The Home Office’s irregular migration statistics user guide explains definitions and methodology for small-boat arrivals and notes that the transparency data are provisional and subject to revision; finalised statistics are later published in the quarterly Immigration system statistics series under “How many people come to the UK irregularly,” which may differ due to further quality assurance.\n\nDefinitions forecasters should use:\n- Small boat: One of a number of vessels used by individuals crossing the English Channel aiming to enter the UK without a visa or permission, either by landing directly or after interception at sea and being brought ashore. Common types include rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), dinghies, and kayaks.\n- Arrivals/detections counted: Individuals detected on arrival in the UK, or detected in the Channel by UK authorities and subsequently brought to the UK. These statistics count detections rather than unique people; one person detected multiple times would be counted multiple times. Arrivals by larger vessels (e.g., ferries, yachts) and undetected arrivals are excluded; individuals prevented from departing France or intercepted by French authorities and returned to France are also excluded.\n- Uncontrolled landings: Boats recorded as arriving in the UK without interception; people detected from uncontrolled landings are included in irregular migrants recorded arriving by small boat.\n- Preventions (not counted toward arrivals): Operational estimates from French authorities covering individuals prevented from departing France or returning to France, plus events such as boats prevented/returned, maritime equipment finds, and facilitator arrests. Preventions are reported weekly but are not part of the arrivals total.\n\nUpdate cadence and how to find the data: The daily “last 7 days” page presents fields for date, migrants arrived, boats arrived, boats involved in uncontrolled landings, and notes. The weekly summary page provides weekly arrivals and preventions and links to a time series going back to 1 January 2018. All of these transparency figures are provisional and subject to change; final authoritative statistics appear in the quarterly Immigration system statistics release after additional quality assurance.\n\nRecent context as of 2025-09-30: Small-boat arrivals have remained a prominent route since 2021, with annual totals in the tens of thousands. The quarterly Immigration system statistics report “year ending June 2025” small-boat arrivals of 43,309, which is 5% below the 2022 peak and 38% above the year ending June 2024; it also notes seasonality (higher numbers during warmer months) and an increasing average number of people per boat, reaching 56 in the year ending June 2025 and a record monthly average of 65 in June 2025. This context suggests that the remainder of 2025 could plausibly push the calendar-year total near thresholds in the high 40,000s to low 50,000s.\n\nKey links for forecasters and resolvers:\n- Small boat activity in the English Channel (main transparency page/time series): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats \n- Small boat arrivals: last 7 days (daily table): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days \n- Weekly summary of small boat arrivals and preventions: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/weekly-summary-of-small-boat-arrivals-and-preventions \n- Home Office irregular migration statistics user guide: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-irregular-migration-to-the-uk-statistics-user-guide/home-office-irregular-migration-to-the-uk-statistics-user-guide \n- Quarterly Immigration system statistics (finalised small-boat statistics): https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/immigration-statistics-quarterly-release \n\nWhy the 50,000 threshold is plausible but uncertain: Based on the “year ending June 2025” context and observed seasonality, the full calendar-year 2025 total could end below or above 50,000, depending on autumn/winter conditions and operational factors; 2022’s calendar-year total peaked at around 46,000, and the recent “year ending” figure is 43,309, indicating that 50,000 is credibly in play but not guaranteed.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4fbb5b8b359f3f9a\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window: Consider arrivals dated between 00:00:00 UTC on January 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, inclusive.\n\nOperational definition of what counts: Count only “irregular migrants detected arriving by small boat” on the English Channel route, as defined by the Home Office transparency pages and user guide: detections on arrival in the UK or detections in the Channel by UK authorities subsequently brought to the UK. Exclude arrivals by larger vessels, undetected arrivals, and French preventions. Note that counts are of detections, not unique individuals.\n\nPrimary resolution source and method: Resolve using the Home Office/Border Force transparency publication “Small boat activity in the English Channel” as it appears on or before 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. Use either:\n- The weekly time series on the main publication page, if it provides cumulative 2025 totals; or\n- A computed cumulative total for calendar year 2025 by summing the 2025-dated values from the time series and/or the daily “last 7 days” table for the final days of the year.\n\nLinks to use:\n- Main transparency/time series page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats \n- Daily last 7 days page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days \n- Weekly summary page: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/weekly-summary-of-small-boat-arrivals-and-preventions \n\nOutcome rule: Resolve Yes if the cumulative number of “irregular migrants detected arriving by small boat” in calendar year 2025 is at least 50,000 at 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, per the transparency pages above. Resolve No otherwise.\n\nHandling revisions and data availability:\n- Use the figures as presented on or before the resolution time; subsequent revisions published after December 31, 2025 do not affect resolution.\n- If the transparency pages are temporarily unavailable at the exact resolution time, resolve using the most recent accessible version from the same URLs (e.g., earlier on December 31, 2025) or an official archived copy (e.g., UK Government Web Archive), provided it reflects the data published by the Home Office/Border Force on or before the resolution time. If access is restored within the resolution window, use the live pages.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40647, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763119962.722519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763119962.722519, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3731954022988506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and data source: The UK Home Office publishes provisional daily and weekly counts of people detected arriving in the UK after crossing the English Channel in small boats, via the transparency pages titled “Small boat activity in the English Channel.” These pages include a “last 7 days” daily table and a weekly summary/time series dating back to 2018, updated regularly by Border Force/Home Office and intended for operational transparency. The Home Office’s irregular migration statistics user guide explains definitions and methodology for small-boat arrivals and notes that the transparency data are provisional and subject to revision; finalised statistics are later published in the quarterly Immigration system statistics series under “How many people come to the UK irregularly,” which may differ due to further quality assurance.\n\nDefinitions forecasters should use:\n- Small boat: One of a number of vessels used by individuals crossing the English Channel aiming to enter the UK without a visa or permission, either by landing directly or after interception at sea and being brought ashore. Common types include rigid-hulled inflatable boats (RHIBs), dinghies, and kayaks.\n- Arrivals/detections counted: Individuals detected on arrival in the UK, or detected in the Channel by UK authorities and subsequently brought to the UK. These statistics count detections rather than unique people; one person detected multiple times would be counted multiple times. Arrivals by larger vessels (e.g., ferries, yachts) and undetected arrivals are excluded; individuals prevented from departing France or intercepted by French authorities and returned to France are also excluded.\n- Uncontrolled landings: Boats recorded as arriving in the UK without interception; people detected from uncontrolled landings are included in irregular migrants recorded arriving by small boat.\n- Preventions (not counted toward arrivals): Operational estimates from French authorities covering individuals prevented from departing France or returning to France, plus events such as boats prevented/returned, maritime equipment finds, and facilitator arrests. Preventions are reported weekly but are not part of the arrivals total.\n\nUpdate cadence and how to find the data: The daily “last 7 days” page presents fields for date, migrants arrived, boats arrived, boats involved in uncontrolled landings, and notes. The weekly summary page provides weekly arrivals and preventions and links to a time series going back to 1 January 2018. All of these transparency figures are provisional and subject to change; final authoritative statistics appear in the quarterly Immigration system statistics release after additional quality assurance.\n\nRecent context as of 2025-09-30: Small-boat arrivals have remained a prominent route since 2021, with annual totals in the tens of thousands. The quarterly Immigration system statistics report “year ending June 2025” small-boat arrivals of 43,309, which is 5% below the 2022 peak and 38% above the year ending June 2024; it also notes seasonality (higher numbers during warmer months) and an increasing average number of people per boat, reaching 56 in the year ending June 2025 and a record monthly average of 65 in June 2025. This context suggests that the remainder of 2025 could plausibly push the calendar-year total near thresholds in the high 40,000s to low 50,000s.\n\nKey links for forecasters and resolvers:\n- Small boat activity in the English Channel (main transparency page/time series): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats \n- Small boat arrivals: last 7 days (daily table): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days \n- Weekly summary of small boat arrivals and preventions: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/weekly-summary-of-small-boat-arrivals-and-preventions \n- Home Office irregular migration statistics user guide: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/home-office-irregular-migration-to-the-uk-statistics-user-guide/home-office-irregular-migration-to-the-uk-statistics-user-guide \n- Quarterly Immigration system statistics (finalised small-boat statistics): https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/immigration-statistics-quarterly-release \n\nWhy the 50,000 threshold is plausible but uncertain: Based on the “year ending June 2025” context and observed seasonality, the full calendar-year 2025 total could end below or above 50,000, depending on autumn/winter conditions and operational factors; 2022’s calendar-year total peaked at around 46,000, and the recent “year ending” figure is 43,309, indicating that 50,000 is credibly in play but not guaranteed.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4fbb5b8b359f3f9a\"}}`" }, { "id": 40646, "title": "Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October 15 and December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October", "url_title": "Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October", "slug": "will-any-major-danish-civilian-airport-report-a-drone-related-operational-disruption-between-october", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:08.372901Z", "published_at": "2025-11-13T20:41:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T22:12:00.180606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:08.721588Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T22:11:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T22:11:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-13T20:41:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40242, "title": "Will any major Danish civilian airport report a drone-related operational disruption between October 15 and December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:08.373351Z", "open_time": "2025-11-13T20:41:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T22:11:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T22:11:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T22:11:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T22:11:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: In late September 2025, Denmark experienced multiple drone-related disruptions to civil aviation. Copenhagen Airport was shut for nearly four hours on Monday, September 22, 2025. Aalborg Airport’s airspace was closed after drones were sighted around 21:44 CEST on September 24, with closures and zero-rate arrivals and departures extending into early September 25; police confirmed multiple drones and several diversions. Billund Airport (Denmark’s second-largest) was briefly shut on September 26 after a report of illegal drone activity that police later assessed was a “shining star in the sky”. Denmark’s government characterized the incidents as hybrid attacks; officials discussed suspected “state actors,” and the Prime Minister linked the Copenhagen incident to suspected Russian activities across Europe, though attribution was not definitively confirmed. In response, Denmark imposed a temporary nationwide ban on civilian drones from Monday through Friday of the week starting September 29, 2025, to support summit security; allied anti-drone assistance was deployed and a German air-defense frigate arrived in Copenhagen. Allies including Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, and Norway sent counter-UAS capabilities and personnel; authorities noted that drones disrupted air traffic at six Danish airports in the prior week. These developments indicate elevated risk but do not make additional disruptions between October 15 and year-end certain.\n\nWhy this question: The window begins after the EU summit week and extends through year-end, a period of plausible but uncertain recurrence of drone-related incidents. The question targets Denmark’s four major civilian airports and uses clear, documentable operational criteria and authoritative sources to enable unambiguous resolution.\n\nMajor Danish civilian airports included: Copenhagen Airport (CPH/Kastrup), Billund Airport (BLL), Aalborg Airport (AAL), and Aarhus Airport (AAR).\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"fc45db213a979c39\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary resolution (Yes/No).\n\nObservation window: Events must occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. Only events that start during this window count. Events starting before the window do not count, even if effects continue into the window.\n\nWhat counts as a “drone-related operational disruption” at an included airport: A qualifying disruption must meet at least one of the following criteria and be explicitly attributed to drone activity by an authoritative source (see Sources below). “Explicitly attributed” means the public report identifies drones (unmanned aircraft) as the cause or direct trigger of the operational measure.\n\nCriterion A (formal closure/suspension): A formal temporary closure or suspension of arrivals and/or departures at the airport, or a closure of the airport’s controlled aerodrome airspace, documented by any of the following:\n- An official NOTAM or aeronautical message announcing closure/suspension, published by the relevant authority or airport; or\n- A public announcement by the airport operator, the Danish Transport Authority (Trafikstyrelsen), or the Danish National Police stating an operational suspension/closure.\n\nCriterion B (material flight-impact threshold): A publicly reported diversion, cancellation, or suspension of arrivals or departures attributable to drone activity that results in delay impacts of at least 30 minutes for five (5) or more scheduled flights within a contiguous six-hour period commencing at the first official report of drone-related disruption at that airport.\n\nDefinitions and clarifications:\n- Drone / Unmanned aircraft: An unmanned aircraft, including remotely piloted aircraft, as part of an Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS). See general references: Unmanned aerial vehicle (Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unmanned_aerial_vehicle) and EASA UAS overview (https://www.easa.europa.eu/en/domains/civil-drones-uas) For this question, “drone” includes any unmanned aircraft of any size or propulsion observed or reported as causing the disruption.\n- Scheduled flight: A flight operating under a published timetable with an IATA/ICAO flight number, listed on the airport’s official arrivals/departures board or equivalent official data feed. Non-scheduled military sorties and ad hoc general aviation without published flight numbers do not count toward the threshold.\n- Public report: A press release, official website update, verified official social media post, NOTAM/aeronautical message, or statement to the press from an authoritative source (airport operator; Danish Transport Authority/Trafikstyrelsen; Danish National Police). Credible wire-service reports (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) are acceptable if they directly quote or clearly attribute information to these authorities.\n- Retractions/corrections: If an authority publicly retracts or corrects an earlier drone attribution within 48 hours to a non-drone cause (e.g., astronomical object), the event will not count. Example context: police later identified a Billund report as a “shining star”.\n- Airports included: Copenhagen Airport (CPH/Kastrup), Billund Airport (BLL), Aalborg Airport (AAL), Aarhus Airport (AAR). Limiting to these named airports eliminates ambiguity over what constitutes “major.”\n- Measuring delays: Delay impact is the difference between scheduled and actual (or cancellation/diversion) times as reported by the airport’s official status pages or authoritative statements. Where an airport or authority publicly states that ≥5 flights had delays of ≥30 minutes due to drones, that suffices. Alternatively, the resolver may confirm counts via the airport’s official flight-status data for the relevant period.\n\nResolution:\n- Yes if at least one of the included airports experiences a qualifying drone-related operational disruption (Criterion A or B) starting within the observation window.\n- No otherwise.\n\nPrimary resolution sources (authoritative, active URLs where information is expected to be published):\n- Airport operators: Copenhagen Airport press/news (https://www.cph.dk) Billund Airport (https://billund-airport.com) Aalborg Airport (https://www.aal.dk) Aarhus Airport (https://www.aar.dk)\n- Danish National Police (Rigspolitiet): https://politi.dk\n- Danish Transport Authority (Trafikstyrelsen): https://www.trafikstyrelsen.dk\n- Eurocontrol Network Operations Portal: https://www.public.nm.eurocontrol.int\n- Credible wire services for corroboration if needed: Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) BBC (https://www.bbc.com) Associated Press (https://apnews.com)\n\nContext citations for status quo and plausibility: Copenhagen’s near four-hour closure and national civilian drone ban ; detailed Aalborg closure timing and diversions ; Billund brief closure later assessed as astronomical object ; suspected hybrid/state-actor context and Prime Minister’s remarks ; allied anti-drone support and note of disruptions at six airports ; summit-related security measures and ban timeframe.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40646, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763070514.864689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763070514.864689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35968604651162805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: In late September 2025, Denmark experienced multiple drone-related disruptions to civil aviation. Copenhagen Airport was shut for nearly four hours on Monday, September 22, 2025. Aalborg Airport’s airspace was closed after drones were sighted around 21:44 CEST on September 24, with closures and zero-rate arrivals and departures extending into early September 25; police confirmed multiple drones and several diversions. Billund Airport (Denmark’s second-largest) was briefly shut on September 26 after a report of illegal drone activity that police later assessed was a “shining star in the sky”. Denmark’s government characterized the incidents as hybrid attacks; officials discussed suspected “state actors,” and the Prime Minister linked the Copenhagen incident to suspected Russian activities across Europe, though attribution was not definitively confirmed. In response, Denmark imposed a temporary nationwide ban on civilian drones from Monday through Friday of the week starting September 29, 2025, to support summit security; allied anti-drone assistance was deployed and a German air-defense frigate arrived in Copenhagen. Allies including Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, and Norway sent counter-UAS capabilities and personnel; authorities noted that drones disrupted air traffic at six Danish airports in the prior week. These developments indicate elevated risk but do not make additional disruptions between October 15 and year-end certain.\n\nWhy this question: The window begins after the EU summit week and extends through year-end, a period of plausible but uncertain recurrence of drone-related incidents. The question targets Denmark’s four major civilian airports and uses clear, documentable operational criteria and authoritative sources to enable unambiguous resolution.\n\nMajor Danish civilian airports included: Copenhagen Airport (CPH/Kastrup), Billund Airport (BLL), Aalborg Airport (AAL), and Aarhus Airport (AAR).\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"fc45db213a979c39\"}}`" }, { "id": 40645, "title": "Will “Assata: An Autobiography” appear on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will “Assata: An Autobiography” appear on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list between 2025-1", "url_title": "Will “Assata: An Autobiography” appear on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list between 2025-1", "slug": "will-assata-an-autobiography-appear-on-any-weekly-new-york-times-best-sellers-list-between-2025-1", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.927966Z", "published_at": "2025-11-13T15:54:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T17:25:00.221925Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:08.169613Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T17:24:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T17:24:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-13T15:54:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40241, "title": "Will “Assata: An Autobiography” appear on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.928418Z", "open_time": "2025-11-13T15:54:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T17:24:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T17:24:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T17:24:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T17:24:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: Assata Shakur died on Thursday, September 25, 2025, in Havana at age 78, as reported by The New York Times. Her autobiographical book, “Assata: An Autobiography,” is the memoir of Assata Shakur, originally published in 1988 (Lawrence Hill Books), and is widely cataloged as her autobiography regardless of later editions. The New York Times Best Sellers are authoritatively ranked lists of books sold in the United States “based on sales in the past week,” published online and organized by format and genre. The Times describes its Best Sellers as up-to-date weekly lists, compiled from confidential reporting by a wide range of retail outlets; lists are published online early and include standardized symbols (e.g., dagger for bulk-sales inclusion) with rankings reflecting sales for the stated week. The weekly Best Sellers landing pages are dated (e.g., “The New York Times Best Sellers — June 29, 2025”) and aggregate multiple category lists on a single dated page, with category pages linked from that issue. General background: The NYT Best Seller list has been published weekly by The New York Times Book Review since 1931, is considered the preeminent U.S. bestseller compilation, and is editorially curated using proprietary methods intended to reflect authentic bestsellers.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"6602d181a9ba35c4\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if, between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC (inclusive), the title “Assata: An Autobiography” appears as a ranked entry on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers category list associated with a weekly Best Sellers issue whose date (as displayed on the NYT Best Sellers landing page header) falls within the specified window; otherwise No.\n\nDefinitions and scope:\n- “Assata: An Autobiography”: The autobiographical work authored by Assata Shakur, first published in 1988, irrespective of edition or format (e.g., hardcover, paperback, e-book, audiobook). Any reprint or new edition counts if the entry clearly refers to this work by Assata Shakur.\n- “New York Times Best Sellers list” (weekly): The dated weekly lists published online by The New York Times under nytimes.com/books/best-sellers, comprising authoritatively ranked lists of books sold in the United States for the past week, organized by format/genre, as described by the Times. The list compilation is editorial and proprietary but is consistently presented weekly by The New York Times Book Review.\n- “Weekly Best Sellers issue date”: The date shown in the header of the NYT weekly Best Sellers landing page (pattern: https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/YYYY/MM/DD/) which aggregates that week’s category lists (e.g., Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction, Hardcover Nonfiction, Paperback Nonfiction, Advice, How-To & Miscellaneous, Children’s lists, etc.). For avoidance of doubt, only weekly lists are eligible; monthly lists (if any) are excluded.\n- “Appear”: The title is present as a ranked entry (i.e., assigned a numerical rank) on any eligible weekly Best Sellers category page for the dated issue within the defined window. Standard list symbols (e.g., dagger for bulk sales, asterisk for near-ties) do not affect eligibility; the presence of the ranked entry is sufficient.\n\nOperational resolution steps (source of truth):\n1) Identify each weekly NYT Best Sellers issue dated within the window (inclusive), via the NYT Best Sellers dated landing pages (e.g., https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/YYYY/MM/DD/) The landing page prominently displays the issue date and links to category lists.\n2) For each eligible issue, open the relevant category pages linked from the landing page and scan the ranked entries to determine whether “Assata: An Autobiography” (as defined above) appears. The NYT Best Sellers pages and their linked category pages are the sole sources of truth.\n3) If the title appears on at least one eligible category list for any eligible weekly issue, resolve Yes immediately; otherwise, after checking all weekly issues dated up to and including 2025-12-31 (UTC), resolve No.\n\nNotes and edge cases:\n- Title variations: Minor punctuation differences or edition descriptors (e.g., “Assata: An Autobiography (Revised Edition)”) count, provided the entry clearly refers to the same autobiographical work by Assata Shakur.\n- Category breadth: Any weekly category list counts (e.g., combined print & e-book nonfiction, hardcover nonfiction, paperback nonfiction, advice/how-to & miscellaneous, children’s lists), as long as it is part of the weekly Best Sellers issue dated within the window.\n- Publication timing: The NYT states that lists are published online early; however, eligibility is determined strictly by the weekly issue date displayed on the landing page, measured in UTC for this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40645, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763054239.391887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763054239.391887, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.27163218390804605 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: Assata Shakur died on Thursday, September 25, 2025, in Havana at age 78, as reported by The New York Times. Her autobiographical book, “Assata: An Autobiography,” is the memoir of Assata Shakur, originally published in 1988 (Lawrence Hill Books), and is widely cataloged as her autobiography regardless of later editions. The New York Times Best Sellers are authoritatively ranked lists of books sold in the United States “based on sales in the past week,” published online and organized by format and genre. The Times describes its Best Sellers as up-to-date weekly lists, compiled from confidential reporting by a wide range of retail outlets; lists are published online early and include standardized symbols (e.g., dagger for bulk-sales inclusion) with rankings reflecting sales for the stated week. The weekly Best Sellers landing pages are dated (e.g., “The New York Times Best Sellers — June 29, 2025”) and aggregate multiple category lists on a single dated page, with category pages linked from that issue. General background: The NYT Best Seller list has been published weekly by The New York Times Book Review since 1931, is considered the preeminent U.S. bestseller compilation, and is editorially curated using proprietary methods intended to reflect authentic bestsellers.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"6602d181a9ba35c4\"}}`" }, { "id": 40644, "title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension b", "url_title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension b", "slug": "will-the-euitaly-formalize-financing-or-publish-a-tender-for-the-blueraman-east-africa-extension-b", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.460321Z", "published_at": "2025-11-13T05:41:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T07:12:00.320358Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.724969Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-13T05:41:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40240, "title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.460739Z", "open_time": "2025-11-13T05:41:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What Blue‑Raman is: The Blue‑Raman cable system is a proposed intercontinental subsea fiber‑optic system linking France to India, with segments known as “Blue” (Mediterranean) and “Raman” (Red Sea/Arabian Sea). The route includes Djibouti on the African side of the Red Sea, and is notable for bypassing the Egyptian chokepoint. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system\n- The June 2025 announcement: At the Rome summit “The Mattei Plan for Africa and Global Gateway: A common effort with the African Continent,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Now, together with Italy, we will finance an extension of Blue‑Raman from its African hub in Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.” The statement framed this as part of the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and Italy’s Mattei Plan. Media coverage around the event likewise reported the EU and Italy would co‑finance expanding the Blue‑Raman fiber‑optic cable from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n- Why this matters for forecasting: Political announcements often precede but do not guarantee concrete financing instruments (e.g., signed grant/loan agreements) or procurement actions (e.g., contract notices/tenders). This question asks whether that June 2025 intent will translate into publicly verifiable financing or procurement steps for the East Africa extension by year‑end 2025.\n- Where such actions are typically published:\n • Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) is the online version of the EU’s Supplement to the Official Journal dedicated to public procurement notices. See: https://ted.europa.eu\n • The EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal is the European Commission’s single entry point (SEDIA) for funding programmes and tenders managed by the Commission and other EU bodies. See: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/home\n • The European Investment Bank (EIB) maintains an official project procurement page listing contract notices for EIB‑financed projects (often used for operations outside the EU). See: https://www.eib.org/en/about/procurement/project-procurement\n- Status quo from cited sources: The cited June 2025 materials describe intent to support/finance an extension from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania but do not themselves constitute a signed financing agreement or a published tender for the extension.\n\nDefinitions and links for clarity\n- “Blue‑Raman East Africa extension”: For this question, this means branches (subsea and/or terrestrial) extending from Djibouti to one or more of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania that are part of the Blue‑Raman system or its officially associated branches, and which are explicitly referred to by name (“Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman”) together with at least one of the target countries or the phrase “East Africa extension” in the title or body of an official document. Canonical background on Blue‑Raman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system.\n- “Invitation to tender/Contract notice”: A formal procurement notice inviting suppliers to submit offers; for EU‑threshold contracts, such notices and subsequent contract award notices are published in the Supplement to the Official Journal via TED.\n- “Publicly available”: Accessible online without paywall. If a paywall applies but the document is also accessible via an official public portal listed under Resolution Sources below, it counts.\n- Timezone and window for eligible actions: 00:00 UTC on 2025‑06‑20 through 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31. Start date aligns with the Rome summit that announced the intent to extend Blue‑Raman to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n\nKey references to the June 2025 announcement and platforms for resolution\n- Summit quote and context: \n- Media coverage of EU‑Italy co‑financing intent: \n- What Blue‑Raman is: \n- TED definition and role: \n- EU Funding & Tenders Portal role: \n- EIB project procurement portal context:\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"431b38715bacac38\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves to Yes if, between 00:00 UTC on 2025‑06‑20 and 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31, at least one of the following is publicly available and verifiable:\n\nA) A signed financing, grant, or loan agreement by an EU institution (e.g., the European Commission or the European Investment Bank) and/or the Government of Italy that is specifically for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension (as defined above), where the document explicitly references “Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman” and at least one of Somalia, Kenya, or Tanzania in describing the financed scope. Acceptable evidence includes official press releases or official agreement documents on the European Commission’s Press Corner, the EIB website, or Italian government ministries’ websites (e.g., Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation or Ministry of Economy and Finance). The June 2025 intent announcement alone does not qualify.\n\nOR\n\nB) An official procurement notice initiating supplier competition (a contract notice/invitation to tender) that explicitly names “Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman” and at least one of Somalia, Kenya, or Tanzania and is clearly for works, supplies, or services for the extension from Djibouti to the named country/countries. The notice must be published on one of the following official portals: TED (Tenders Electronic Daily) , the EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal , or the EIB Project Procurement page. General digital connectivity calls without explicit Blue‑Raman naming do not qualify. Definitions of contract notices and their standard publication on TED are per EU procurement practices.\n\nIf neither A nor B occurs within the stated window, resolve No.\n\nAdditional notes for the resolver\n- “Specifically for” requires that the text of the agreement or notice identifies Blue‑Raman by name and ties the scope to at least one of Somalia, Kenya, or Tanzania (e.g., “Blue‑Raman extension to Kenya”). Generic references to “digital backbone,” “subsea cables,” or “East Africa connectivity” without explicit Blue‑Raman naming do not qualify.\n- “Signed agreement” means an executed legal instrument (e.g., grant agreement, financing agreement, or loan agreement). Where only a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or Letter of Intent is available without legal effect, do not count it unless the MoU text states it is the executed financing instrument for the extension.\n- Evidence hierarchy: Prefer a single, direct source document on TED , the EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal , the EIB procurement page , the EIB press release page, or official EU/Italian government press releases. If multiple sources disagree, the resolver should prioritize the primary legal/official notice (e.g., the contract notice or the signed agreement itself) over secondary reporting.\n- Pars pro toto choice: Financing/tender issuance is used as a clear proxy for concrete follow‑through on the June 2025 political announcement.\n\nAccepted resolution sources (non‑exhaustive examples)\n- TED (Tenders Electronic Daily): https://ted.europa.eu \n- EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/home \n- EIB Project Procurement: https://www.eib.org/en/about/procurement/project-procurement \n\nBackground sources for context (do not themselves resolve the question)\n- June 2025 summit quote/context on extension to Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania: \n- Media report on EU‑Italy co‑financing intent: \n- Blue‑Raman system description: \n- EU procurement practice definitions: \n\nThe question resolves once the window closes at 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31, based on the presence or absence of qualifying evidence as described above.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40644, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763017052.411828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763017052.411828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21000000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.2359922480620155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What Blue‑Raman is: The Blue‑Raman cable system is a proposed intercontinental subsea fiber‑optic system linking France to India, with segments known as “Blue” (Mediterranean) and “Raman” (Red Sea/Arabian Sea). The route includes Djibouti on the African side of the Red Sea, and is notable for bypassing the Egyptian chokepoint. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system\n- The June 2025 announcement: At the Rome summit “The Mattei Plan for Africa and Global Gateway: A common effort with the African Continent,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Now, together with Italy, we will finance an extension of Blue‑Raman from its African hub in Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.” The statement framed this as part of the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and Italy’s Mattei Plan. Media coverage around the event likewise reported the EU and Italy would co‑finance expanding the Blue‑Raman fiber‑optic cable from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n- Why this matters for forecasting: Political announcements often precede but do not guarantee concrete financing instruments (e.g., signed grant/loan agreements) or procurement actions (e.g., contract notices/tenders). This question asks whether that June 2025 intent will translate into publicly verifiable financing or procurement steps for the East Africa extension by year‑end 2025.\n- Where such actions are typically published:\n • Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) is the online version of the EU’s Supplement to the Official Journal dedicated to public procurement notices. See: https://ted.europa.eu\n • The EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal is the European Commission’s single entry point (SEDIA) for funding programmes and tenders managed by the Commission and other EU bodies. See: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/home\n • The European Investment Bank (EIB) maintains an official project procurement page listing contract notices for EIB‑financed projects (often used for operations outside the EU). See: https://www.eib.org/en/about/procurement/project-procurement\n- Status quo from cited sources: The cited June 2025 materials describe intent to support/finance an extension from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania but do not themselves constitute a signed financing agreement or a published tender for the extension.\n\nDefinitions and links for clarity\n- “Blue‑Raman East Africa extension”: For this question, this means branches (subsea and/or terrestrial) extending from Djibouti to one or more of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania that are part of the Blue‑Raman system or its officially associated branches, and which are explicitly referred to by name (“Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman”) together with at least one of the target countries or the phrase “East Africa extension” in the title or body of an official document. Canonical background on Blue‑Raman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system.\n- “Invitation to tender/Contract notice”: A formal procurement notice inviting suppliers to submit offers; for EU‑threshold contracts, such notices and subsequent contract award notices are published in the Supplement to the Official Journal via TED.\n- “Publicly available”: Accessible online without paywall. If a paywall applies but the document is also accessible via an official public portal listed under Resolution Sources below, it counts.\n- Timezone and window for eligible actions: 00:00 UTC on 2025‑06‑20 through 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31. Start date aligns with the Rome summit that announced the intent to extend Blue‑Raman to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n\nKey references to the June 2025 announcement and platforms for resolution\n- Summit quote and context: \n- Media coverage of EU‑Italy co‑financing intent: \n- What Blue‑Raman is: \n- TED definition and role: \n- EU Funding & Tenders Portal role: \n- EIB project procurement portal context:\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"431b38715bacac38\"}}`" }, { "id": 40643, "title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 3", "url_title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 3", "slug": "will-nhc-report-16-or-more-named-storms-for-the-2025-north-atlantic-season-by-2359-et-on-december-3", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.882244Z", "published_at": "2025-11-12T23:04:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T00:35:00.453941Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.110594Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-12T23:04:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40239, "title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.882654Z", "open_time": "2025-11-12T23:04:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01: NOAA projected an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting 13–19 total named storms (defined as storms with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) and officially running from June 1 to November 30. NOAA’s August mid-season update stated that a typical Atlantic season yields 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (based on 1991–2020 climatology) and kept expected ranges at 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page reported, as of 03 UTC on 30 September 2025, totals of 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.\n\nKey definitions and sources:\n- Named storm: A tropical or subtropical cyclone that attains maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph (34 knots) and is assigned an official name. NOAA explicitly defines the named-storm threshold as 39 mph or higher , and NHC’s tropical cyclone type legend shows that Tropical Storms (TS) and Subtropical Storms (SS) span 34–63 knots, with hurricanes at 64–95 knots and major hurricanes at 96 knots or higher; the NHC seasonal summary counts “Named Storms” inclusive of TS, SS, HU, and MH.\n- Naming procedure: Atlantic tropical storm names are maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); names are assigned according to these lists and may be retired for sensitivity reasons.\n- Official season dates: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.\n\nPrimary resolution source and current status page:\n- National Hurricane Center “2025 North Atlantic Summary” (NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index) at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ shows the live season totals, including the “Named Storms” count, and indicates update timestamps (e.g., “as of 03 UTC 30 September 2025”). As of the latest cited update time, it shows 9 named storms to date.\n\nWhy this threshold? Given NOAA’s outlook of 13–19 named storms and a typical baseline of 14 , alongside a status of 9 named storms by late September , a 16-storm threshold sits within the outlook range and should yield meaningful uncertainty for forecasters.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c757fee99c0d1098\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will the National Hurricane Center (NHC) list 16 or more “Named Storms” for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 Eastern Time (ET, UTC−5) on 2025-12-31?\n\nOperational definitions:\n- “Named Storms” means the “Named Storms” total as displayed on NHC’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page (the NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index for 2025: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) which counts tropical and subtropical cyclones that reached at least 34 knots (39 mph) sustained winds and were assigned an official name (i.e., includes TS, SS, HU, and MH per NHC’s legend).\n- “2025 North Atlantic season” refers to the season classification used by NHC on that page. We do not independently define eligibility dates beyond deferring to NHC’s assignment. For general context, the official Atlantic hurricane season spans June 1–November 30, but off-season named systems may still be counted by NHC in the season total; resolution depends solely on the NHC total shown on the specified page at the resolution time.\n- Time standard: ET on 2025-12-31 is Eastern Standard Time (UTC−5) at that date.\n\nResolution procedure:\n- Resolve YES if, at 23:59 ET (UTC−5) on 2025-12-31, the “Named Storms” value shown on the NHC 2025 North Atlantic Summary page is 16 or higher. Resolve NO otherwise.\n- If the page is temporarily inaccessible at that exact time, use the earliest available web snapshot at or immediately after 23:59 ET on 2025-12-31 (e.g., an archived capture) reflecting the NHC page’s contents at that time. If the NHC summary page is persistently unavailable on that date, the resolver may use official NOAA/NHC public reporting that explicitly states the total number of named storms for the 2025 Atlantic season as of year-end; however, post-season reanalysis or revisions published after 2025-12-31 do not affect the outcome.\n- Post-deadline changes: Any changes to the season total made by NHC/NOAA after 23:59 ET on 2025-12-31 (e.g., post-season reanalysis) will not be considered for resolution of this question.\n\nStatus baseline for forecasters (non-binding for resolution): As of 03 UTC on 30 September 2025, NHC reported 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes for the 2025 North Atlantic season. NOAA’s pre-season outlook projected 13–19 named storms (≥39 mph), and a typical season produces about 14 named storms.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40643, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762992805.122594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762992805.122594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1773256704980843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01: NOAA projected an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting 13–19 total named storms (defined as storms with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) and officially running from June 1 to November 30. NOAA’s August mid-season update stated that a typical Atlantic season yields 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (based on 1991–2020 climatology) and kept expected ranges at 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page reported, as of 03 UTC on 30 September 2025, totals of 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.\n\nKey definitions and sources:\n- Named storm: A tropical or subtropical cyclone that attains maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph (34 knots) and is assigned an official name. NOAA explicitly defines the named-storm threshold as 39 mph or higher , and NHC’s tropical cyclone type legend shows that Tropical Storms (TS) and Subtropical Storms (SS) span 34–63 knots, with hurricanes at 64–95 knots and major hurricanes at 96 knots or higher; the NHC seasonal summary counts “Named Storms” inclusive of TS, SS, HU, and MH.\n- Naming procedure: Atlantic tropical storm names are maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); names are assigned according to these lists and may be retired for sensitivity reasons.\n- Official season dates: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.\n\nPrimary resolution source and current status page:\n- National Hurricane Center “2025 North Atlantic Summary” (NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index) at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ shows the live season totals, including the “Named Storms” count, and indicates update timestamps (e.g., “as of 03 UTC 30 September 2025”). As of the latest cited update time, it shows 9 named storms to date.\n\nWhy this threshold? Given NOAA’s outlook of 13–19 named storms and a typical baseline of 14 , alongside a status of 9 named storms by late September , a 16-storm threshold sits within the outlook range and should yield meaningful uncertainty for forecasters.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c757fee99c0d1098\"}}`" }, { "id": 40642, "title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on", "url_title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on", "slug": "will-arizona-execute-richard-kenneth-djerf-between-0000-utc-on-october-1-2025-and-235959-utc-on", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.432798Z", "published_at": "2025-11-12T09:05:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T10:36:00.242998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.700623Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-12T09:05:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40238, "title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.433435Z", "open_time": "2025-11-12T09:05:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of status quo as of October 1, 2025:\n- Scheduled execution: The Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) \"Upcoming Executions\" page lists Richard Djerf (Arizona) with an execution date of October 17, 2025.\n- Official state notice: The Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry (ADCRR) announced that the Arizona Supreme Court issued a warrant of execution for Richard Djerf (ADCRR #121385), scheduling the execution for Friday, October 17, 2025 at Arizona State Prison Complex–Florence, with the method of execution as lethal injection.\n- Additional reporting: Local public radio KJZZ reported the Arizona Supreme Court set the Oct 17, 2025 execution date; the story also notes method details and recent Arizona execution context. ABC News reported that Djerf stated he will not seek clemency, and confirmed the Oct 17 scheduled date.\n- Resolution source cadence: DPIC’s execution tracking pages state they are updated by 12 noon Eastern Time daily to reflect executions in the prior 24 hours. This applies to both the Upcoming Executions and the \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" pages.\n- Relevant definitions used by the resolution source: On DPIC’s \"Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025\" page, outcome categories are defined as Active, Inactive, and Executed, with Executed meaning the defendant was executed by the state or jurisdiction in which they were serving a death sentence.\n\nContext for forecasters:\n- Arizona has resumed executions in recent years and carried out executions in 2022 after a multi-year pause; media coverage notes recent activity and the possibility of litigation or administrative changes near execution dates.\n- Last-minute stays, reprieves, or logistical issues can change outcomes close to scheduled dates; DPIC’s Outcomes pages track such changes with event notes. Forecasters should monitor court filings, clemency actions, and logistical updates from the state.\n\nDefined terms:\n- \"Arizona\" refers to the U.S. State of Arizona.\n- \"Richard Kenneth Djerf\" refers to the inmate identified by ADCRR #121385.\n- \"Execute\" means the defendant was put to death by the state under a lawfully imposed death sentence; for resolution purposes, this corresponds to DPIC’s outcome category \"Executed\".\n- Time window: All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The window opens at 00:00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and closes at 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025 (inclusive).\n\nKey sources (for verification and ongoing tracking):\n- DPIC Upcoming Executions: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions \n- DPIC List of Defendants Executed in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/2025 \n- DPIC Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2025 \n- ADCRR announcement: https://corrections.az.gov/news/execution-scheduled-inmate-richard-djerf-adcrr-121385 \n- KJZZ reporting: https://www.kjzz.org/kjzz-news/2025-08-20/arizona-supreme-court-sets-execution-date-for-richard-kenneth-djerf-for-oct-17 \n- ABC News reporting: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arizona-prisoner-set-executed-apologizes-wont-seek-clemency-125720007\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"379b0a4835a88850\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary resolution at 20:00 UTC on October 18, 2025.\n\nPrimary source of truth:\n- DPIC \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" page (https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/2025) which is updated daily by 12 noon Eastern Time to reflect executions in the previous 24 hours.\n\nHow we will resolve:\n- YES if, by the resolution time, the DPIC \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" page lists Richard (Kenneth) Djerf as executed by Arizona with a date of execution that falls within the defined UTC window (Oct 1–Oct 17, 2025, inclusive). For avoidance of doubt, the DPIC entry’s stated calendar date controls; if the DPIC entry shows an execution date of October 17, 2025 for Arizona—Richard Djerf, the question resolves YES.\n- NO if, by the resolution time, the DPIC page does not list an execution of Richard Djerf within the window, or if DPIC’s relevant outcome on Djerf’s warrant indicates the execution did not occur on the scheduled date (e.g., the warrant is inactive/stayed/rescheduled), as reflected on DPIC’s Outcomes page.\n\nTie-breakers and fallbacks:\n- If the DPIC executions page is inaccessible or not updated by the resolution time, resolve using credible, independent reporting from at least two of the following outlets confirming whether the execution occurred within the window: Associated Press, Reuters, or the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry official announcements/newsroom. If ADCRR has posted an execution confirmation for Djerf dated October 17, 2025, that will count as sufficient state confirmation. If credible reporting indicates the execution did not occur on or before October 17, resolve NO.\n\nClarifications:\n- Name normalization: \"Richard Djerf\" and \"Richard Kenneth Djerf\" refer to the same person (ADCRR #121385).\n- Timezone: The window is defined in UTC for clarity. Because DPIC lists executions by calendar date without timezone specification, the DPIC-stated execution date governs the determination.\n- Start date: Only executions occurring between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025 (inclusive) are eligible for a YES outcome.\n- Event definition: \"Executed\" corresponds to DPIC’s definition that the defendant was executed by the state where they were under sentence of death.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40642, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762942662.782028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762942662.782028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.913691570881226 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 45.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of status quo as of October 1, 2025:\n- Scheduled execution: The Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) \"Upcoming Executions\" page lists Richard Djerf (Arizona) with an execution date of October 17, 2025.\n- Official state notice: The Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry (ADCRR) announced that the Arizona Supreme Court issued a warrant of execution for Richard Djerf (ADCRR #121385), scheduling the execution for Friday, October 17, 2025 at Arizona State Prison Complex–Florence, with the method of execution as lethal injection.\n- Additional reporting: Local public radio KJZZ reported the Arizona Supreme Court set the Oct 17, 2025 execution date; the story also notes method details and recent Arizona execution context. ABC News reported that Djerf stated he will not seek clemency, and confirmed the Oct 17 scheduled date.\n- Resolution source cadence: DPIC’s execution tracking pages state they are updated by 12 noon Eastern Time daily to reflect executions in the prior 24 hours. This applies to both the Upcoming Executions and the \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" pages.\n- Relevant definitions used by the resolution source: On DPIC’s \"Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025\" page, outcome categories are defined as Active, Inactive, and Executed, with Executed meaning the defendant was executed by the state or jurisdiction in which they were serving a death sentence.\n\nContext for forecasters:\n- Arizona has resumed executions in recent years and carried out executions in 2022 after a multi-year pause; media coverage notes recent activity and the possibility of litigation or administrative changes near execution dates.\n- Last-minute stays, reprieves, or logistical issues can change outcomes close to scheduled dates; DPIC’s Outcomes pages track such changes with event notes. Forecasters should monitor court filings, clemency actions, and logistical updates from the state.\n\nDefined terms:\n- \"Arizona\" refers to the U.S. State of Arizona.\n- \"Richard Kenneth Djerf\" refers to the inmate identified by ADCRR #121385.\n- \"Execute\" means the defendant was put to death by the state under a lawfully imposed death sentence; for resolution purposes, this corresponds to DPIC’s outcome category \"Executed\".\n- Time window: All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The window opens at 00:00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and closes at 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025 (inclusive).\n\nKey sources (for verification and ongoing tracking):\n- DPIC Upcoming Executions: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions \n- DPIC List of Defendants Executed in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/2025 \n- DPIC Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2025 \n- ADCRR announcement: https://corrections.az.gov/news/execution-scheduled-inmate-richard-djerf-adcrr-121385 \n- KJZZ reporting: https://www.kjzz.org/kjzz-news/2025-08-20/arizona-supreme-court-sets-execution-date-for-richard-kenneth-djerf-for-oct-17 \n- ABC News reporting: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arizona-prisoner-set-executed-apologizes-wont-seek-clemency-125720007\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"379b0a4835a88850\"}}`" }, { "id": 40641, "title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dated between 2025-10-18 and 2025-12-27 (inclusive)?", "short_title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dat", "url_title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dat", "slug": "will-any-song-credited-to-billie-eilish-rank-in-the-top-10-of-the-billboard-hot-100-on-any-chart-dat", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.942353Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T22:44:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:15:00.195339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.165527Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:44:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40237, "title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dated between 2025-10-18 and 2025-12-27 (inclusive)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.942759Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:44:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview of the Billboard Hot 100: The Billboard Hot 100 is the industry-standard weekly U.S. songs chart. Rankings combine streaming activity, radio airplay audience impressions, and sales data, all tracked/compiled by Luminate. The chart is refreshed weekly on Billboard.com, typically on Tuesdays (or Wednesdays in weeks with Monday holidays), and is post-dated to the following Saturday; tracking periods generally run Friday–Thursday.\n\nChart dating and source pages: Billboard publishes a dated Hot 100 page at URLs of the form https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/YYYY-MM-DD/. Examples confirm that dated endpoints display the corresponding Hot 100 chart (e.g., 2025-01-18 and 2023-10-21).\n\nArtist credit conventions on Billboard: On Hot 100 pages, artists are displayed next to the song title. Collaborations are shown via “&”, “Featuring”, and sometimes “With”; a song counts for an artist if that artist’s name appears in the artist credit line on the chart entry for that week.\n\nWhy this question is plausible and uncertain: Billie Eilish had substantial Hot 100 momentum in 2024–2025. All 10 tracks from her album “Hit Me Hard and Soft” debuted in the Hot 100 top 40 in May 2024. Her single “Birds of a Feather” peaked at No. 2 on the Hot 100 and charted for over 52 weeks, with strong multiformat performance through 2025. However, it is uncertain whether she will secure any additional or sustained Top 10 entries specifically during late Q4 2025, making the outcome non-trivial.\n\nNotes for forecasters: Focus on (a) Eilish’s release and promotion schedule, (b) anticipated Q4 holiday effects and competing major releases, and (c) radio and streaming trajectories for any current singles. Resolution uses a single authoritative source (Billboard’s dated Hot 100 pages) and does not depend on proprietary forecasts.\n\nKey definitions used below are tied to Billboard’s published methodology and chart pages.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4147a12c23fe75b9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Eligible window and chart dates: The eligible charts are the Billboard Hot 100 charts dated on the following Saturdays in 2025, inclusive: 2025-10-18, 2025-10-25, 2025-11-01, 2025-11-08, 2025-11-15, 2025-11-22, 2025-11-29, 2025-12-06, 2025-12-13, 2025-12-20, and 2025-12-27.\n\nPrimary resolution source: For each eligible date, check the corresponding Billboard chart page at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/YYYY-MM-DD/ to verify ranks and credits. Examples of this dated-URL pattern and page format are confirmed for 2025-01-18 and 2023-10-21.\n\nDefinitions (must be satisfied on the chart page for the date in question):\n- Billboard Hot 100: The weekly all-genre U.S. songs chart ranked by streaming, radio airplay audience impressions, and sales, compiled by Luminate and published by Billboard.\n- Chart date: The Saturday-dated issue week used by Billboard; charts are compiled on weekly tracking periods and post-dated to Saturday.\n- Top 10: Positions 1 through 10 as displayed on the Hot 100 chart page for that date.\n- “Song credited to Billie Eilish”: Any Hot 100 entry for which the artist credit line includes “Billie Eilish,” whether solely or in collaboration, including credit formats using “&”, “Featuring”, or “With,” as displayed on the chart page. Remixes or alternate versions count if they appear as the charted entry with “Billie Eilish” in the artist credit on the Hot 100 page for that date.\n\nResolution rule: Resolve YES if any of the eligible Billboard Hot 100 chart pages dated between 2025-10-18 and 2025-12-27 (inclusive) shows at least one entry with “Billie Eilish” in the artist credit at ranks 1–10. Otherwise resolve NO.\n\nTiming: Resolution occurs once Billboard has published the last eligible chart (dated 2025-12-27), which typically appears on Billboard.com by the Tuesday of that week; if publication is delayed due to a Monday holiday, charts may update Wednesday. If any page is temporarily unavailable, use a cached or archived version of the same Billboard URL. All determinations should be based solely on the content of the Billboard chart page(s) for the relevant dates.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40641, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762904767.985411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762904767.985411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2569310344827586 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview of the Billboard Hot 100: The Billboard Hot 100 is the industry-standard weekly U.S. songs chart. Rankings combine streaming activity, radio airplay audience impressions, and sales data, all tracked/compiled by Luminate. The chart is refreshed weekly on Billboard.com, typically on Tuesdays (or Wednesdays in weeks with Monday holidays), and is post-dated to the following Saturday; tracking periods generally run Friday–Thursday.\n\nChart dating and source pages: Billboard publishes a dated Hot 100 page at URLs of the form https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/YYYY-MM-DD/. Examples confirm that dated endpoints display the corresponding Hot 100 chart (e.g., 2025-01-18 and 2023-10-21).\n\nArtist credit conventions on Billboard: On Hot 100 pages, artists are displayed next to the song title. Collaborations are shown via “&”, “Featuring”, and sometimes “With”; a song counts for an artist if that artist’s name appears in the artist credit line on the chart entry for that week.\n\nWhy this question is plausible and uncertain: Billie Eilish had substantial Hot 100 momentum in 2024–2025. All 10 tracks from her album “Hit Me Hard and Soft” debuted in the Hot 100 top 40 in May 2024. Her single “Birds of a Feather” peaked at No. 2 on the Hot 100 and charted for over 52 weeks, with strong multiformat performance through 2025. However, it is uncertain whether she will secure any additional or sustained Top 10 entries specifically during late Q4 2025, making the outcome non-trivial.\n\nNotes for forecasters: Focus on (a) Eilish’s release and promotion schedule, (b) anticipated Q4 holiday effects and competing major releases, and (c) radio and streaming trajectories for any current singles. Resolution uses a single authoritative source (Billboard’s dated Hot 100 pages) and does not depend on proprietary forecasts.\n\nKey definitions used below are tied to Billboard’s published methodology and chart pages.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4147a12c23fe75b9\"}}`" }, { "id": 40640, "title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in Sabah or Sarawak as eligible for subsidised RON95 under BUDI95 or SKPS?", "short_title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in", "url_title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in", "slug": "between-oct-1-and-dec-31-2025-utc-will-malaysian-authorities-formally-include-boat-operators-in", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.421981Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T09:43:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:14:00.339269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.716698Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T09:43:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40236, "title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in Sabah or Sarawak as eligible for subsidised RON95 under BUDI95 or SKPS?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.422390Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T09:43:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of Oct 1, 2025:\n- BUDI95 (Budi Madani RON95) is Malaysia’s targeted fuel subsidy that allows eligible Malaysians to purchase RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre, up to a 300‑litre monthly limit; the retail price of non‑subsidised RON95 is RM2.60 per litre. The programme commenced nationwide on Sept 30, 2025. Related government communications also note appeals channels for users of petrol‑powered equipment (e.g., fishermen/farmers/boat owners), but these do not constitute formal, enumerated eligibility categories under BUDI95.\n- Officials have publicly said the government is considering extending subsidised fuel eligibility to boat operators, especially in Sabah and Sarawak, and expressed openness to doing so (e.g., Second Finance Minister statements and media briefings in late Sept 2025).\n- SKPS (Sistem Kawalan Petrol Bersubsidi) is KPDN’s system through which companies in selected public and goods land transport categories apply for RON95 subsidy via MySubsidi and fleet cards; registration opened Sept 15, 2025, with a cash refund mechanism starting Sept 30, 2025 for firms awaiting fleet cards, covering 21 transport categories in the land sector. SKPS is administered via MySubsidi (KPDN) and includes processes to apply and manage fleet card usage; the SKPS FAQ clarifies company application and fleet card procedures.\n- Definitions for key terms used below:\n • RON95: RON is the research octane number; RON95 gasoline has the anti‑knock quality equivalent to a mixture of 95% iso‑octane and 5% n‑heptane (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating).\n • Boat: A watercraft generally smaller than a ship, typically used on inland waterways or protected coastal areas (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boat) In modern terms, a boat is small enough to be carried aboard a ship.\n • Sabah: A state of Malaysia in northern Borneo, part of East Malaysia (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabah).\n • Sarawak: Malaysia’s largest state, in East Malaysia on Borneo’s northwest (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarawak).\n- Where to check for updates: MOF’s portal publishes press releases and policy announcements (News/Press Release sections) relevant to BUDI95. KPDN publishes SKPS press statements and FAQs on its official site. Major national media such as Malay Mail and The Star routinely carry official statements.\n\nWhy this is forecast‑worthy: As of late Sept/early Oct 2025, officials are actively considering but have not yet formally adopted an enumerated eligibility category for boat operators under BUDI95/SKPS. Policy could be expanded or deferred, and implementation details (scope limited to Sabah/Sarawak vs nationwide, and mechanism via BUDI95 vs SKPS) remain uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"00f24b3899f33d04\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on public, official documentation between Oct 1, 2025 00:00:00 UTC and Dec 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolve Yes if BOTH conditions are met by the cutoff:\n1) An official Malaysian government source publishes an announcement, directive, FAQ, policy document, or press release that explicitly lists “boat operators” (or a clearly equivalent term such as “small passenger boat operators,” “operators of boats with petrol outboard engines,” “outboard engine boat operators”) as an eligible category for subsidised RON95 under either:\n a) BUDI95 (the individual targeted RON95 subsidy scheme) ; or\n b) SKPS (the KPDN system for subsidised RON95 via MySubsidi/fleet cards).\n\nAND\n\n2) The eligibility applies to operators in Sabah or Sarawak. This can be satisfied in either of the following ways:\n • The official document explicitly references eligibility for boat operators “in Sabah” and/or “in Sarawak”; OR\n • The official document establishes a national eligibility category for boat operators under BUDI95 or SKPS, and there is no explicit exclusion of Sabah or Sarawak. Because BUDI95 is stated to be implemented nationwide , a national inclusion of boat operators under BUDI95 qualifies for this condition unless the document explicitly excludes Sabah or Sarawak.\n\nAdditionally, for a Yes resolution, the policy must have an effective date on or before Dec 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC, or clearly indicate that enrollment/claims for the newly eligible boat operator category are being accepted by that cutoff (e.g., via MySubsidi SKPS application acceptance or BUDI95 enrollment guidance). Mere mention of case‑by‑case “appeals” or ad hoc assistance without formal category inclusion does NOT count.\n\nResolve No if, by the cutoff, no official source has published an explicit eligibility category covering boat operators under BUDI95 or SKPS that applies to Sabah or Sarawak, or if any announcement is made but does not take effect (or accept enrollment/claims) by the cutoff.\n\nWhat counts as an official source:\n- Ministry of Finance (MOF) portal: News/Press Release/Press Citations sections.\n- KPDN (Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Ministry) official site: press statements/FAQs/announcements related to SKPS and BUDI95.\n- Official Sabah or Sarawak state ministry portals (e.g., transport, domestic trade) carrying formal notices.\n- Major national outlets (e.g., Malay Mail, The Star) quoting and linking to official documents or carrying verbatim official statements.\n\nImportant clarifications:\n- “Explicitly lists” means the official document uses one of the defined phrases (e.g., “boat operators,” “small passenger boat operators,” “outboard engine boats/operators”) to identify a category; general terms like “fishermen/farmers” without explicit inclusion of boat operators do not count.\n- “Eligible for subsidised RON95 under BUDI95/SKPS” means inclusion as a formal category within the scheme’s published rules/FAQs/press releases that confers access to the RM1.99/L BUDI95 benefit up to the monthly cap , or SKPS fleet‑card/cash refund mechanisms for the relevant category.\n- Geographic scope: Sabah and Sarawak are defined as Malaysian states on Borneo. If the category is national and not excluding these states, it is considered to apply there.\n\nStart date: Only announcements/effective dates between Oct 1, 2025 00:00:00 UTC and Dec 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC are eligible for resolution.\n\nPrimary places to verify at resolution:\n- MOF portal news/press releases (https://www.mof.gov.my/portal/en).\n- KPDN media statements and SKPS FAQ pages (https://www.kpdn.gov.my/ …).\n- MySubsidi portal for SKPS category/enrollment status (https://mysubsidi.kpdn.gov.my/).\n- Major national media carrying official statements (e.g., Malay Mail, The Star).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40640, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762857868.436901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762857868.436901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.681359848484849 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of Oct 1, 2025:\n- BUDI95 (Budi Madani RON95) is Malaysia’s targeted fuel subsidy that allows eligible Malaysians to purchase RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre, up to a 300‑litre monthly limit; the retail price of non‑subsidised RON95 is RM2.60 per litre. The programme commenced nationwide on Sept 30, 2025. Related government communications also note appeals channels for users of petrol‑powered equipment (e.g., fishermen/farmers/boat owners), but these do not constitute formal, enumerated eligibility categories under BUDI95.\n- Officials have publicly said the government is considering extending subsidised fuel eligibility to boat operators, especially in Sabah and Sarawak, and expressed openness to doing so (e.g., Second Finance Minister statements and media briefings in late Sept 2025).\n- SKPS (Sistem Kawalan Petrol Bersubsidi) is KPDN’s system through which companies in selected public and goods land transport categories apply for RON95 subsidy via MySubsidi and fleet cards; registration opened Sept 15, 2025, with a cash refund mechanism starting Sept 30, 2025 for firms awaiting fleet cards, covering 21 transport categories in the land sector. SKPS is administered via MySubsidi (KPDN) and includes processes to apply and manage fleet card usage; the SKPS FAQ clarifies company application and fleet card procedures.\n- Definitions for key terms used below:\n • RON95: RON is the research octane number; RON95 gasoline has the anti‑knock quality equivalent to a mixture of 95% iso‑octane and 5% n‑heptane (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating).\n • Boat: A watercraft generally smaller than a ship, typically used on inland waterways or protected coastal areas (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boat) In modern terms, a boat is small enough to be carried aboard a ship.\n • Sabah: A state of Malaysia in northern Borneo, part of East Malaysia (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabah).\n • Sarawak: Malaysia’s largest state, in East Malaysia on Borneo’s northwest (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarawak).\n- Where to check for updates: MOF’s portal publishes press releases and policy announcements (News/Press Release sections) relevant to BUDI95. KPDN publishes SKPS press statements and FAQs on its official site. Major national media such as Malay Mail and The Star routinely carry official statements.\n\nWhy this is forecast‑worthy: As of late Sept/early Oct 2025, officials are actively considering but have not yet formally adopted an enumerated eligibility category for boat operators under BUDI95/SKPS. Policy could be expanded or deferred, and implementation details (scope limited to Sabah/Sarawak vs nationwide, and mechanism via BUDI95 vs SKPS) remain uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"00f24b3899f33d04\"}}`" }, { "id": 40639, "title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?", "short_title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik", "url_title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik", "slug": "between-oct-15-and-dec-31-2025-utc-will-russia-or-belarus-officially-announce-that-the-oreshnik", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.920672Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T08:14:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T09:45:00.200924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.149913Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T08:14:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40235, "title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.921081Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T08:14:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is “Oreshnik”? Reuters describes Oreshnik as an intermediate-range ballistic/hypersonic missile system. In late 2024, President Vladimir Putin said Russia could deploy Oreshnik to Belarus in the second half of 2025. Reuters has reported various claimed characteristics, including that it is an intermediate-range hypersonic system with a range up to about 5,500 km, and that Russia first used it in combat in November 2024 in Ukraine.\n- Relevant recent reporting: (a) On 2024-12-06, Reuters reported Putin said Oreshnik could be deployed to Belarus in late 2025 and that Belarus would determine targets for any Oreshnik on its territory. (b) On 2025-06-23, Reuters reported Putin said Russia was ramping up production of Oreshnik and reiterated that deployment to Belarus could occur in H2 2025. (c) On 2025-09-16, Reuters reported Moscow and Minsk rehearsed the use of tactical nuclear weapons and featured the Oreshnik in joint war games; the article reiterated that potential Belarus deployment had been signaled for the second half of 2025 and noted Russia’s first Oreshnik combat use occurred on 2024-11-21.\n- Why this matters: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons under Russian control, and joint exercises have featured nuclear-use rehearsals. A formal announcement that Oreshnik is deployed in Belarus would be a significant, verifiable military and geopolitical development, but as of today it remains uncertain whether such an announcement will be made in Q4 2025.\n\nKey definitions (with links):\n- Oreshnik missile system: The Russian “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile program as referenced by Russian officials and described by Reuters.\n- Belarusian territory: The internationally recognized territory of the Republic of Belarus (see country overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus).\n- Official announcement: A public statement posted on an official government channel or state news agency (see Resolution Criteria for an exhaustive list of qualifying sources) that explicitly states Oreshnik has been deployed/stationed/based in Belarus or is on combat duty in Belarus, using present or past tense (e.g., “has been deployed,” “is deployed,” “is on combat duty,” “is stationed/based”). Future/conditional language (e.g., “will be,” “could be,” “planned,” “considering”) does not qualify.\n\nStatus quo for forecasters: Public statements through mid-September 2025 repeatedly floated potential deployment in H2 2025 and incorporated Oreshnik in joint exercises, but did not themselves constitute an official deployment announcement to Belarus. This creates a non-trivial, time-bounded forecasting question for late 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"47d6e45f72b20bf9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will there be an official announcement that Russia’s Oreshnik missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?\n\nWhat counts as a “Yes”:\n- A qualifying announcement is any public statement in Russian, Belarusian, or English, posted during the time window on at least one of the following official channels, that explicitly states (present or past tense) that Oreshnik has been deployed/stationed/based in Belarus or is on combat duty in Belarus:\n - Government/Ministry sites:\n - Kremlin/President of Russia: https://en.kremlin.ru or https://kremlin.ru\n - Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation: https://mil.ru\n - President of Belarus: https://president.gov.by\n - Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus: https://www.mil.by\n - State news agencies (Russia/Belarus):\n - TASS: https://tass.com or https://tass.ru\n - BelTA: https://www.belta.by\n- Acceptable wording includes, but is not limited to: “deployed in Belarus,” “stationed/based in Belarus,” “on (combat) duty in Belarus,” “has entered service in Belarus.” For clarity, Russian phrases such as «развернут(а/ы) в Беларуси», «размещён(а/ы) в Беларуси», «на боевом дежурстве в Беларуси» would qualify if used in reference to Oreshnik.\n- The announcement must clearly and unambiguously name Oreshnik (Орешник) or otherwise unambiguously identify Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system described by Reuters.\n- If multiple qualifying announcements occur, the earliest within the window determines a “Yes.”\n\nWhat does NOT count:\n- Statements using only future/conditional language (e.g., “could,” “will,” “plans to,” “considering,” “intends”).\n- Reports of training, tests, site selection, transport, or exercise participation in Belarus without an explicit statement that the system is deployed/stationed/based/on combat duty in Belarus beyond a named exercise’s duration.\n- Third-party or anonymous-source media reports without a qualifying statement on the official channels above.\n\nEdge cases and tie-breakers:\n- Retractions/Corrections: If a qualifying announcement is officially retracted or corrected by the same type of source (e.g., Kremlin, MoD, TASS, BelTA) before 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, such that it clarifies Oreshnik is not deployed in Belarus, it will not count.\n- Language/translation: If only a non-English announcement exists, resolution will rely on the plain meaning in the original language. Public machine translations may be used to establish tense/meaning if needed.\n- Ambiguity: If the wording is ambiguous or does not mention Oreshnik by name or unmistakable description, it will not count.\n\nTime window (UTC):\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59\n\nResolution process and sources:\n- Primary: Verify via the specified official sites above.\n- Fallback: If a qualifying statement is made only via broadcast/briefing but is not posted online, two or more independent wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg) quoting a named official on the record in their official capacity may be used to confirm the qualifying wording. Example outlet for context: Reuters coverage describing Oreshnik, its first combat use, and potential Belarus deployment timeline.\n\nOutcome:\n- Yes: At least one qualifying announcement occurs within the time window and is not retracted/corrected as described.\n- No: Otherwise (including no announcement, only future/conditional statements, or only exercise-related presence without qualifying wording).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40639, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762853854.009203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762853854.009203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.5962613636363638 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is “Oreshnik”? Reuters describes Oreshnik as an intermediate-range ballistic/hypersonic missile system. In late 2024, President Vladimir Putin said Russia could deploy Oreshnik to Belarus in the second half of 2025. Reuters has reported various claimed characteristics, including that it is an intermediate-range hypersonic system with a range up to about 5,500 km, and that Russia first used it in combat in November 2024 in Ukraine.\n- Relevant recent reporting: (a) On 2024-12-06, Reuters reported Putin said Oreshnik could be deployed to Belarus in late 2025 and that Belarus would determine targets for any Oreshnik on its territory. (b) On 2025-06-23, Reuters reported Putin said Russia was ramping up production of Oreshnik and reiterated that deployment to Belarus could occur in H2 2025. (c) On 2025-09-16, Reuters reported Moscow and Minsk rehearsed the use of tactical nuclear weapons and featured the Oreshnik in joint war games; the article reiterated that potential Belarus deployment had been signaled for the second half of 2025 and noted Russia’s first Oreshnik combat use occurred on 2024-11-21.\n- Why this matters: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons under Russian control, and joint exercises have featured nuclear-use rehearsals. A formal announcement that Oreshnik is deployed in Belarus would be a significant, verifiable military and geopolitical development, but as of today it remains uncertain whether such an announcement will be made in Q4 2025.\n\nKey definitions (with links):\n- Oreshnik missile system: The Russian “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile program as referenced by Russian officials and described by Reuters.\n- Belarusian territory: The internationally recognized territory of the Republic of Belarus (see country overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus).\n- Official announcement: A public statement posted on an official government channel or state news agency (see Resolution Criteria for an exhaustive list of qualifying sources) that explicitly states Oreshnik has been deployed/stationed/based in Belarus or is on combat duty in Belarus, using present or past tense (e.g., “has been deployed,” “is deployed,” “is on combat duty,” “is stationed/based”). Future/conditional language (e.g., “will be,” “could be,” “planned,” “considering”) does not qualify.\n\nStatus quo for forecasters: Public statements through mid-September 2025 repeatedly floated potential deployment in H2 2025 and incorporated Oreshnik in joint exercises, but did not themselves constitute an official deployment announcement to Belarus. This creates a non-trivial, time-bounded forecasting question for late 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"47d6e45f72b20bf9\"}}`" }, { "id": 40638, "title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive, UTC)?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (", "url_title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (", "slug": "will-spacex-conduct-at-least-one-integrated-starship-flight-test-between-2025-10-15-and-2025-12-31", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.424678Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T06:17:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T07:48:00.249104Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.732083Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T06:17:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40234, "title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive, UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.425062Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T06:17:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- SpaceX’s Starship is a two-stage launch system consisting of the Super Heavy first stage booster and the Starship upper stage. SpaceX refers to launches of the fully stacked system as Starship “flight tests.” These tests may be suborbital or orbital and are part of an iterative development program. SpaceX publishes per-flight pages and a Launches index on its website, which are suitable primary sources for whether a given Starship flight test lifted off and on what date/time.\n- Through August 26, 2025, SpaceX had conducted ten integrated Starship flight tests, with the tenth flight occurring on 2025-08-26.\n- The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issues commercial spaceflight licenses and sometimes publishes statements announcing authorization for specific Starship flight tests. These statements typically indicate that a flight “can proceed” or is “authorized for launch,” which is not, by itself, confirmation that a launch actually occurred.\n\nWhy this is forecast-relevant now:\n- The cadence of Starship flight tests in 2025, coupled with technical, regulatory (FAA), range, and weather constraints, creates genuine uncertainty over whether at least one integrated flight test will lift off during the late-2025 window defined below. Forecasters must weigh SpaceX’s readiness, pad availability, FAA approvals, and schedule risk against Starship’s demonstrated pace year-to-date.\n\nKey definitions and links (terminology):\n- Starship (SpaceX): SpaceX’s two-stage, fully reusable super heavy-lift launch system. Informational link: https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/\n- Super Heavy: The first stage booster of the Starship system. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy\n- Integrated Starship flight test (for this question): A test launch attempt in which a Starship upper stage is stacked atop a Super Heavy booster and the fully integrated vehicle lifts off from a launch pad (i.e., the stack physically leaves the pad under its own thrust). Suborbital and orbital trajectories both qualify. Static fires, wet dress rehearsals, or any ground tests without liftoff do not qualify.\n- Liftoff: The moment the launch vehicle leaves the pad, initiating powered ascent. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch\n- Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): The time standard used for this question’s timing window. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c68fc979b5d9497c\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, inclusive?\n\nEligible events:\n- An eligible event is a Starship integrated flight test as defined above: the fully stacked Starship (upper stage) atop Super Heavy (first stage) lifts off from a launch pad, regardless of trajectory (suborbital/orbital), launch site (e.g., Starbase, Texas; LC-39A, Florida; or any other site), or mission disposition (reusable/expended).\n- Scrubs, countdowns, static fires, wet dress rehearsals, and any other ground tests that do not reach liftoff are not counted. Single-vehicle hop tests (e.g., Ship-only or Booster-only) are not counted because they are not integrated.\n\nTime window and timezone:\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC.\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n- Inclusive of both endpoints. If a source reports only local time, the resolver will convert that time to UTC to determine inclusion. If multiple times are reported, the resolver will prefer UTC if available.\n\nPrimary resolution source (must be satisfied by at least one of the following):\n- SpaceX official per-flight page for a Starship “flight test” (e.g., a page titled in the style of “Starship’s [Nth] Flight Test”) that explicitly states that the flight lifted off on a date/time that falls within the above UTC window, or\n- SpaceX’s Launches index page showing a Starship flight test entry with a date/time within the above UTC window.\n\nSecondary fallback (only if the SpaceX website is unavailable or lacks a per-flight/Launches entry for the event by 2026-01-15):\n- At least two independent credible reports from major wire services or authoritative space publications explicitly confirming that a Starship integrated flight test lifted off, with the date/time convertible to UTC within the window. Acceptable examples include (but are not limited to): Associated Press (AP), Reuters, Agence France-Presse (AFP), Spaceflight Now, Ars Technica, or NASA’s news releases. If used, the resolver will archive or screenshot the relevant reports.\n\nAdditional guidance for resolvers:\n- FAA statements of authorization alone do not confirm that a launch occurred; they only indicate permission to conduct launch operations. FAA authorizations may be used as corroborating context but are insufficient without confirmation of liftoff from the primary or fallback sources.\n- If SpaceX’s materials and independent reporting conflict on whether liftoff occurred within the window, SpaceX’s official materials take precedence for this question’s resolution. If SpaceX materials are unavailable and independent sources disagree, require at least two independent credible sources in agreement that liftoff occurred within the window.\n\nResolution:\n- YES if at least one eligible integrated Starship flight test reaches liftoff within the stated UTC window, as evidenced by the primary source (SpaceX website) or, if necessary, the secondary fallback.\n- NO otherwise.\n\nNotes on current status (for forecasters’ context, not part of resolution):\n- Through 2025-08-26, there have been 10 integrated flight tests, with Flight 10 occurring on 2025-08-26.\n- FAA communications in 2025 related to Starship frequently used phrasing such as “can now proceed” or “is authorized for launch,” which indicates authorization rather than confirmation of a launch.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40638, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762846517.421433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762846517.421433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2878219696969696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- SpaceX’s Starship is a two-stage launch system consisting of the Super Heavy first stage booster and the Starship upper stage. SpaceX refers to launches of the fully stacked system as Starship “flight tests.” These tests may be suborbital or orbital and are part of an iterative development program. SpaceX publishes per-flight pages and a Launches index on its website, which are suitable primary sources for whether a given Starship flight test lifted off and on what date/time.\n- Through August 26, 2025, SpaceX had conducted ten integrated Starship flight tests, with the tenth flight occurring on 2025-08-26.\n- The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issues commercial spaceflight licenses and sometimes publishes statements announcing authorization for specific Starship flight tests. These statements typically indicate that a flight “can proceed” or is “authorized for launch,” which is not, by itself, confirmation that a launch actually occurred.\n\nWhy this is forecast-relevant now:\n- The cadence of Starship flight tests in 2025, coupled with technical, regulatory (FAA), range, and weather constraints, creates genuine uncertainty over whether at least one integrated flight test will lift off during the late-2025 window defined below. Forecasters must weigh SpaceX’s readiness, pad availability, FAA approvals, and schedule risk against Starship’s demonstrated pace year-to-date.\n\nKey definitions and links (terminology):\n- Starship (SpaceX): SpaceX’s two-stage, fully reusable super heavy-lift launch system. Informational link: https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/\n- Super Heavy: The first stage booster of the Starship system. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy\n- Integrated Starship flight test (for this question): A test launch attempt in which a Starship upper stage is stacked atop a Super Heavy booster and the fully integrated vehicle lifts off from a launch pad (i.e., the stack physically leaves the pad under its own thrust). Suborbital and orbital trajectories both qualify. Static fires, wet dress rehearsals, or any ground tests without liftoff do not qualify.\n- Liftoff: The moment the launch vehicle leaves the pad, initiating powered ascent. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch\n- Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): The time standard used for this question’s timing window. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c68fc979b5d9497c\"}}`" }, { "id": 40637, "title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?", "short_title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-1", "url_title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-1", "slug": "will-the-met-offices-uk-storm-centre-record-at-least-three-storms-as-date-named-between-2025-10-1", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.918568Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:52:00.169510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.228198Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40233, "title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.918985Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and scheme: The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands jointly operate the \"Name our storms\" initiative via the Met Office (UK), Met Éireann (Ireland), and KNMI (Netherlands). The Met Office confirms the 2025/26 names list (Amy, Bram, Chandra, Dave, Eddie, Fionnuala, Gerard, Hannah, Isla, Janna, Kasia, Lilith, Marty, Nico, Oscar, Patrick, Ruby, Stevie, Tadhg, Violet, Wubbo) and the joint scheme partners. The Met Office’s UK Storm Centre page hosts the season’s table titled \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" with a \"Date named\" column and is updated throughout the season with named storms and associated dates.\n\nWhat constitutes a named storm: According to the Met Office, “a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning,” based on the National Severe Weather Warnings Service’s impact and likelihood framework. Storms are usually named for wind impacts but can include rain (e.g., flooding) or snow impacts. Any of the three partners (Met Office, Met Éireann, or KNMI) may assign the next alphabetical name when criteria are met.\n\nSeason timing and recent activity: The Met Office describes the storm-names list as running from early September to late August to align with the period when low-pressure systems are most likely. For context, the 2024/25 season saw six named storms in total, with three occurring between mid-October and early December 2024 (Ashley on Oct 20–21; Bert and Conall on Nov 21–27; Darragh on Dec 6–7). As of 2025-09-30, the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table shows no storms yet populated with a \"Date named\" value, indicating none have been named so far this season.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Met Office UK Storm Centre page (live, continuously updated) is the single source of truth for this question: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nDefinitions used in this question:\n- \"Named storm\" means a weather system that has been formally assigned a name under the joint UK–Ireland–Netherlands \"Name our storms\" scheme, and for which the UK Storm Centre table records a non-empty \"Date named\" entry.\n- \"Date named\" refers to the calendar date shown in the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table on the UK Storm Centre page; this date is used for counting and comparison without inferring a time-of-day unless explicitly shown.\n- \"Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)\" means the inclusive window from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If \"Date named\" is displayed without a time, treat it as the whole calendar day and include it if the date falls within the inclusive range.\n- Only storms that appear as entries in the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table count toward the total, ensuring alignment with the UK–Ireland–Netherlands naming scheme.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"cb5b86b1fb39e195\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Data to check: Use the Met Office UK Storm Centre page’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table and its \"Date named\" column as displayed at or after 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nSteps:\n1) Navigate to the page and locate the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table.\n2) For each distinct storm name listed in that table, read the \"Date named\" entry.\n3) Count how many storms have a \"Date named\" that falls within the inclusive window 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC to 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If the table provides only a calendar date (no time), include any dates from 2025-10-15 through 2025-12-31 inclusive. If a time-of-day is provided, compare using UTC.\n\nOutcome: Resolve Yes if the count is greater than or equal to 3; resolve No otherwise.\n\nEdge cases and clarifications:\n- Each named storm is counted once (distinct names). Revisions or corrections to dates are taken as shown on the UK Storm Centre page at resolution time.\n- Only storms that appear in the UK Storm Centre’s 2025/26 table are eligible for counting (names from other basins or agencies that do not appear in this table do not count).\n- If the UK Storm Centre page is temporarily unavailable, attempt again within a reasonable time window on or shortly after 2025-12-31; the page is maintained continuously by the Met Office.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40637, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762832854.489234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3825 ], "centers": [ 0.4925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762832854.489234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3825 ], "centers": [ 0.4925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5075000000000001, 0.4925 ], "means": [ 0.4977272727272725 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and scheme: The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands jointly operate the \"Name our storms\" initiative via the Met Office (UK), Met Éireann (Ireland), and KNMI (Netherlands). The Met Office confirms the 2025/26 names list (Amy, Bram, Chandra, Dave, Eddie, Fionnuala, Gerard, Hannah, Isla, Janna, Kasia, Lilith, Marty, Nico, Oscar, Patrick, Ruby, Stevie, Tadhg, Violet, Wubbo) and the joint scheme partners. The Met Office’s UK Storm Centre page hosts the season’s table titled \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" with a \"Date named\" column and is updated throughout the season with named storms and associated dates.\n\nWhat constitutes a named storm: According to the Met Office, “a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning,” based on the National Severe Weather Warnings Service’s impact and likelihood framework. Storms are usually named for wind impacts but can include rain (e.g., flooding) or snow impacts. Any of the three partners (Met Office, Met Éireann, or KNMI) may assign the next alphabetical name when criteria are met.\n\nSeason timing and recent activity: The Met Office describes the storm-names list as running from early September to late August to align with the period when low-pressure systems are most likely. For context, the 2024/25 season saw six named storms in total, with three occurring between mid-October and early December 2024 (Ashley on Oct 20–21; Bert and Conall on Nov 21–27; Darragh on Dec 6–7). As of 2025-09-30, the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table shows no storms yet populated with a \"Date named\" value, indicating none have been named so far this season.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Met Office UK Storm Centre page (live, continuously updated) is the single source of truth for this question: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nDefinitions used in this question:\n- \"Named storm\" means a weather system that has been formally assigned a name under the joint UK–Ireland–Netherlands \"Name our storms\" scheme, and for which the UK Storm Centre table records a non-empty \"Date named\" entry.\n- \"Date named\" refers to the calendar date shown in the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table on the UK Storm Centre page; this date is used for counting and comparison without inferring a time-of-day unless explicitly shown.\n- \"Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)\" means the inclusive window from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If \"Date named\" is displayed without a time, treat it as the whole calendar day and include it if the date falls within the inclusive range.\n- Only storms that appear as entries in the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table count toward the total, ensuring alignment with the UK–Ireland–Netherlands naming scheme.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"cb5b86b1fb39e195\"}}`" }, { "id": 40636, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?", "short_title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Co", "url_title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Co", "slug": "between-0000-utc-on-28-september-2025-and-235959-utc-on-31-december-2025-will-the-un-security-co", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.390600Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:42:00.248169Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.723782Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40232, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.391020Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the snapback is: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 (2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and included a “snapback” mechanism which re-applies the provisions of prior Iran-related UNSC resolutions if a JCPOA participant notifies the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran and the Council does not adopt a resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days. In that case, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) apply again as they did before 2231, effective at midnight GMT after the thirtieth day following notification.\n- Current status of snapback: The E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) notified the Council on 2025-08-28, triggering snapback. With no Council resolution adopted to continue relief, the UN reimposed the pre-2015 measures at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025-09-27), completing the snapback process. The reimposed measures cover nuclear, ballistic missile, arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel ban provisions from the listed resolutions.\n- Recent Council votes: On 2025-09-19, the Council failed to adopt a draft to maintain sanctions relief; the recorded vote was four in favour, nine against, two abstentions, and the text “was not adopted as it failed to obtain the required number of votes”. On 2025-09-26, a China–Russia draft for a six‑month technical extension to sanctions relief was also rejected by a vote of four in favour, nine against, and two abstentions, meaning the draft was not adopted; UN News likewise reported that the effort to extend sanctions relief failed and that snapback would proceed that weekend. Independent reporting corroborated the vote count and timing of reimposition (8 p.m. EDT on the Saturday following the vote).\n- Timeline considerations: UNSCR 2231’s 10‑year term was scheduled to cease in October 2025, but the snapback process re-applies earlier resolutions and associated measures regardless; states remain obliged to comply with the reimposed measures absent subsequent Council action.\n- What counts as an adoption procedurally: Security Council decisions on non‑procedural matters require at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member; a resolution that does not obtain the required votes or is vetoed is not adopted. A “United Nations Security Council resolution” is an act adopted by the 15‑member Council; in common practice, adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no P5 veto.\n- Why this is forecastable/high-entropy: The Council has recently been divided (two failed efforts to maintain relief), but could still consider alternative texts to modify, suspend, or carve out elements of the reimposed measures before year‑end. The Security Council Report previewed the late‑September votes and highlighted sharp divisions over legality and timing, suggesting ongoing procedural possibilities but uncertain prospects for passage.\n\nKey terms (with definitions/links):\n- “United Nations Security Council resolution” (UNSCR): A formal decision of the UN Security Council; adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no permanent‑member veto for non‑procedural matters (see UN voting system; general overview).\n- “Snapback” under UNSCR 2231: The mechanism by which, absent a Council resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days of notification of significant non‑performance, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929 re‑apply as they did before 2231.\n- “UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via snapback”: The measures that took effect again at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 pursuant to the snapback process described above, encompassing the obligations under UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929.\n- “Adopted” (re Council action): A draft is adopted if it receives the required number of affirmative votes (at least nine) and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters.\n\nEvidence sources for status quo:\n- UN press releases and meeting records documenting the failed adoption on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26.\n- UN News reporting on the 2025‑09‑26 failure and impending reimposition.\n- E3 and US statements detailing trigger and effective time of reimposition.\n- UN 2231 background page explaining the snapback process and re‑applied resolutions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c997d1ecf2649281\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window and timezone:\n- Eligible events must occur between 00:00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025. The question resolves based on the status as of 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025.\n\nWhat resolves “Yes”:\n- Resolve “Yes” if, within the above window, the UN Security Council adopts a resolution (see definitions) that modifies the scope or application of any of the UN measures reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 snapback process.\n- “Modifies the scope or application” means the adopted resolution does at least one of the following with respect to obligations arising under the reimposed resolutions (UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, 1929): amends, suspends, narrows, terminates in whole or in part, extends relief from, or creates binding exemptions to, these measures as they apply to Iran or to UN Member States’ obligations regarding Iran. Examples that would count include (non‑exhaustive): reinstating elements of sanctions relief terminated by snapback; establishing a binding humanitarian or technical carve‑out that exempts otherwise prohibited transactions; modifying listings/annexes where the legal effect is to change the binding obligations under the reimposed measures; or suspending enforcement of specified provisions for a defined period. The resolution text must make such changes operative vis‑à‑vis at least one of the reimposed measures.\n\nWhat does NOT count:\n- Non‑adopted drafts; presidential statements; press statements; committee guidelines; Secretariat notices; statements by individual member states or groups; actions solely under national/regional sanctions regimes; resolutions unrelated to Iran’s reimposed UN measures; or any text that does not change binding obligations stemming from the reimposed resolutions.\n\nDefinition of “adopted” and voting:\n- “Adopted” means the Council has approved the resolution in accordance with its voting rules (at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters). A draft that fails to obtain the required votes, or is vetoed, is not adopted. For general background on UNSCRs, see.\n\nPrimary resolution sources to use on 31 December 2025:\n- The text of the adopted resolution as published on un.org; the corresponding UN press release summarizing the meeting and vote; or the official meeting record (S/PV number) documenting adoption. The UN press releases for 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26 illustrate how adoption/non‑adoption is recorded. The UN’s description of Council voting procedures provides the adoption standard.\n\nAdjudication notes:\n- If multiple sources conflict, prioritize official UN documents (published resolution text, S/PV meeting record, UN press release). Secondary corroboration (e.g., UN News or major wire services) may be used only if UN primary sources are temporarily unavailable.\n\nStatus checks baseline (for forecasters):\n- As of 2025‑09‑30, snapback was triggered by the E3 on 2025‑08‑28 and completed at 00:00 GMT on 2025‑09‑28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025‑09‑27), restoring the pre‑2015 UN measures. Attempts to extend sanctions relief on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26 failed to be adopted, with the latter effort described by UN News as blocked and with reimposition proceeding that weekend. UNSCR 2231’s scheduled cessation in October 2025 does not negate the effect of snapback in re‑applying prior resolutions; subsequent Council action could nonetheless modify those reimposed measures.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40636, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762831709.499898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762831709.499898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1471589147286822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 29.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the snapback is: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 (2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and included a “snapback” mechanism which re-applies the provisions of prior Iran-related UNSC resolutions if a JCPOA participant notifies the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran and the Council does not adopt a resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days. In that case, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) apply again as they did before 2231, effective at midnight GMT after the thirtieth day following notification.\n- Current status of snapback: The E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) notified the Council on 2025-08-28, triggering snapback. With no Council resolution adopted to continue relief, the UN reimposed the pre-2015 measures at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025-09-27), completing the snapback process. The reimposed measures cover nuclear, ballistic missile, arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel ban provisions from the listed resolutions.\n- Recent Council votes: On 2025-09-19, the Council failed to adopt a draft to maintain sanctions relief; the recorded vote was four in favour, nine against, two abstentions, and the text “was not adopted as it failed to obtain the required number of votes”. On 2025-09-26, a China–Russia draft for a six‑month technical extension to sanctions relief was also rejected by a vote of four in favour, nine against, and two abstentions, meaning the draft was not adopted; UN News likewise reported that the effort to extend sanctions relief failed and that snapback would proceed that weekend. Independent reporting corroborated the vote count and timing of reimposition (8 p.m. EDT on the Saturday following the vote).\n- Timeline considerations: UNSCR 2231’s 10‑year term was scheduled to cease in October 2025, but the snapback process re-applies earlier resolutions and associated measures regardless; states remain obliged to comply with the reimposed measures absent subsequent Council action.\n- What counts as an adoption procedurally: Security Council decisions on non‑procedural matters require at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member; a resolution that does not obtain the required votes or is vetoed is not adopted. A “United Nations Security Council resolution” is an act adopted by the 15‑member Council; in common practice, adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no P5 veto.\n- Why this is forecastable/high-entropy: The Council has recently been divided (two failed efforts to maintain relief), but could still consider alternative texts to modify, suspend, or carve out elements of the reimposed measures before year‑end. The Security Council Report previewed the late‑September votes and highlighted sharp divisions over legality and timing, suggesting ongoing procedural possibilities but uncertain prospects for passage.\n\nKey terms (with definitions/links):\n- “United Nations Security Council resolution” (UNSCR): A formal decision of the UN Security Council; adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no permanent‑member veto for non‑procedural matters (see UN voting system; general overview).\n- “Snapback” under UNSCR 2231: The mechanism by which, absent a Council resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days of notification of significant non‑performance, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929 re‑apply as they did before 2231.\n- “UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via snapback”: The measures that took effect again at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 pursuant to the snapback process described above, encompassing the obligations under UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929.\n- “Adopted” (re Council action): A draft is adopted if it receives the required number of affirmative votes (at least nine) and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters.\n\nEvidence sources for status quo:\n- UN press releases and meeting records documenting the failed adoption on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26.\n- UN News reporting on the 2025‑09‑26 failure and impending reimposition.\n- E3 and US statements detailing trigger and effective time of reimposition.\n- UN 2231 background page explaining the snapback process and re‑applied resolutions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c997d1ecf2649281\"}}`" } ] }