Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6511, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40882, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "url_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "slug": "sixth-icj-case-in-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-28T15:52:50.599312Z", "published_at": "2025-11-29T17:35:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T02:21:34.374260Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-29T17:36:10.539653Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:12:37.006749Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:12:37.006749Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40551, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-28T15:52:50.599768Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-25T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a contentious case is introduced at the International Court of Justice in December 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc).", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "post_id": 40882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765225963.052576, "end_time": 1765309133.02, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765225963.052576, "end_time": 1765309133.02, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.13541445498438892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6937229307258171, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 2.552419222308928, 1.0190974776309438, 0.0, 1.0004804100459772, 1.1663260985643302, 1.7032404953948688, 0.0, 0.15879807646568847, 0.5058808940795076, 0.0, 0.4080012178576209, 0.24849146739470301, 0.04583246801941605, 0.12458556497060898, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006202750040840664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 249, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia)." }, { "id": 40873, "title": "Will a woman be elected US president in or before the 2044 election?", "short_title": "Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?", "url_title": "Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?", "slug": "will-a-woman-be-elected-us-president-by-2044", "author_id": 283258, "author_username": "Petary", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-27T23:51:31.983767Z", "published_at": "2025-12-02T02:44:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T16:28:00.867682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-02T02:44:47.598799Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-11-08T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2044-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T02:44:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40545, "title": "Will a woman be elected US president in or before the 2044 election?", "created_at": "2025-11-27T23:51:31.984228Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T02:44:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-07T02:44:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-07T02:44:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2044-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-11-08T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-11-08T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A woman has never been elected US President. In 1984, [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) became the first major-party candidate for *vice* president, when she ran as Democrat Walter Mondale's running mate, though they lost the election. Subsequently, no woman would be on the ticket until 2008, when [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) was nominated as Republican John McCain's running mate—but they too lost the election. \n\nIn 2016, [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) became the first major-party candidate for president, and although [she won the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), she lost the election to Donald Trump. Then, in 2020, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) became the first woman to be elected vice president. She would go on to [become the presidential nominee in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_candidates) but would lose that election to Trump.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a woman is elected President of the United States in or before the 2044 election.", "fine_print": "A woman becoming President through means other than her election as President will not count toward resolution. Thus, for example, if a woman is elected Vice President and is elevated to the presidency due to a vacancy in the office, that would not cause this question to resolve as yes.", "short_title": "Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?", "post_id": 40873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765211270.154098, "end_time": 1796286521.535, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765211270.154098, "end_time": 1796286521.535, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.5933838407562402 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31073089628280504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4230528405615187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7624897991119934, 0.4512058906735414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 1.6997240666527258, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7458657086423425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A woman has never been elected US President. In 1984, [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) became the first major-party candidate for *vice* president, when she ran as Democrat Walter Mondale's running mate, though they lost the election. Subsequently, no woman would be on the ticket until 2008, when [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) was nominated as Republican John McCain's running mate—but they too lost the election. \n\nIn 2016, [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) became the first major-party candidate for president, and although [she won the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), she lost the election to Donald Trump. Then, in 2020, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) became the first woman to be elected vice president. She would go on to [become the presidential nominee in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_candidates) but would lose that election to Trump." }, { "id": 40872, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-march-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-27T16:50:03.552443Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T03:45:53.821392Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-27T16:50:19.970042Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-28T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40544, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-27T16:50:03.552916Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-01T18:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T18:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Guinea-Bisau November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America after November 28, 2025 and before March 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.\n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant organized resistance to their control from within the government or military has ceased, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765251943.436923, "end_time": 1765392567.384, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765251943.436923, "end_time": 1765392567.384, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7634115505352737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Guinea-Bisau November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 40867, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "short_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "url_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "slug": "peoples-party-absolute-majority-in-extremadura-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-26T09:06:34.510108Z", "published_at": "2025-11-30T01:51:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:46.658485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-26T09:06:34.687116Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-30T01:51:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T19:59:21.765907Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T19:59:21.765907Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40531, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "created_at": "2025-11-26T09:06:34.510569Z", "open_time": "2025-11-30T01:51:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40750,\"question_id\":40404}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, according to the [official final results](https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/elecciones/autonomicas/extremadura) of the 2025 regional elections in Extremadura, Spain, the People’s Party (PP) led by María Guardiola wins at least 33 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura, thereby achieving an absolute majority without the need for coalition partners or external support.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if the PP wins fewer than 33 seats, regardless of any post-election agreements, coalitions or confidence-and-supply arrangements.\n\nThe resolution will be based solely on the final official results published by the relevant electoral authorities. Recounts or corrections will be taken into account only if they appear in the certified final tally.", "fine_print": "If the election does not take place as scheduled, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "post_id": 40867, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764472376.778262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764472376.778262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19294891839013892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40750,\"question_id\":40404}}`" }, { "id": 40865, "title": "Will Israel pass the Penal Bill (Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment) into law before April 2026?", "short_title": "Will Israel pass the Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment before April 2026?", "url_title": "Will Israel pass the Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment before April 2026?", "slug": "will-israel-pass-the-death-penalty-for-terrorists-amendment-before-april-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-25T22:39:07.635896Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T19:44:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T19:15:06.466803Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-28T19:44:51.455587Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-29T19:44:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40522, "title": "Will Israel pass the Penal Bill (Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment) into law before April 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-25T22:39:07.636374Z", "open_time": "2025-11-29T19:44:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T19:44:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T19:44:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 3, 2025, Israel's [National Security Committee convened and voted to approve](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press31125r.aspx?) the first reading of two bills entitled the Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists). \n\n> The explanatory notes to the bill state that its purpose is to curtail terrorism and create a weighty deterrent. It is proposed that a terrorist who is convicted of murder from a motive of racism or hostility against a population, and under circumstances in which the act was committed with the aim of harming the State of Israel and the national revival of the Jewish people in its land, will be sentenced to a mandatory death penalty. This will be neither optional nor with \\[judicial] discretion. Additionally, the bill proposes that it will be possible to impose a death sentence by majority opinion, and that the penalty imposed on a person who was given a final sentence cannot be commuted.\n\nOn November 11, 2025, the [Knesset Plenum (the central and supreme authoritative body of the Knesset) approved the first reading 39 to 16](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press111125q.aspx). \n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv13rxpgk9o), \n\n> Far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir - whose Jewish Power party brought the vote - celebrated late on Monday by handing out sweets.\n\nAs reported by [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/10/middleeast/israel-parliament-death-penalty-foreign-media-hnk-intl), \n\n> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously opposed the bill, citing concerns over potential retaliation against Israeli hostages held in Gaza. However, he has since reversed his stance following the implementation of a fragile ceasefire.\n\nThe bill has been described as \"controversial\" by Western sources, but its sponsors have stated its importance in light of recent events and current conflicts.\n\n> MK Sonn Har Melech: “I stand here in the name of all the bereaved brothers, widows and orphans. I stand here in the name of my own personal orphans. A death penalty for terrorists is a personal and national obligation. I stand here before you in the name of the thousands of combatants and murder victims and their families, and I am crying out that the time has come to change the preconception. This bill is a moral and national response, it is a bill of justice, which says that Jewish blood is not forfeit.\"\n>  \n> MK Vaturi: “This is a watershed moment. I think that this bill is very important for the people of Israel. We must not be ashamed and bow our head. We must pass this bill. After October 7, there are no more doubts. We owe this to our murdered brothers.\"\n>  \n> MK Tzvika Foghel (Otzma Yehudit): “This is a historic moment. Whoever comes to murder Jews from hatred of the State of Israel—will bear the consequences. There will be no more hotels for terrorists, there will be no more release deals. This is a first and significant step towards creating real deterrence and justice for the victims.\"\n\nThe Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists) will need to pass second and third readings before it can officially pass into law.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, UTC, the Penal Bill (Amendment No. 159) (Death Penalty for Terrorists) 2025 is passed officially into law in the Knesset according to [the official Knesset website](https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/Pages/default.aspx).", "fine_print": "It is irrelevant whether the Knesset website is updated before April 1, 2026; all that matters is whether the law itself passes before the deadline.\n\nIf the Penal Bill (Amendment No. 159) (Death Penalty for Terrorists) 2025 is modified significantly in content such that it no longer provides for the death penalty, then this question will resolve as **No** even if it is passed into law.", "short_title": "Will Israel pass the Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment before April 2026?", "post_id": 40865, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765140340.677, "end_time": 1765295768.93, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765140340.677, "end_time": 1765295768.93, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6172315156000261 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 3, 2025, Israel's [National Security Committee convened and voted to approve](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press31125r.aspx?) the first reading of two bills entitled the Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists). \n\n> The explanatory notes to the bill state that its purpose is to curtail terrorism and create a weighty deterrent. It is proposed that a terrorist who is convicted of murder from a motive of racism or hostility against a population, and under circumstances in which the act was committed with the aim of harming the State of Israel and the national revival of the Jewish people in its land, will be sentenced to a mandatory death penalty. This will be neither optional nor with \\[judicial] discretion. Additionally, the bill proposes that it will be possible to impose a death sentence by majority opinion, and that the penalty imposed on a person who was given a final sentence cannot be commuted.\n\nOn November 11, 2025, the [Knesset Plenum (the central and supreme authoritative body of the Knesset) approved the first reading 39 to 16](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press111125q.aspx). \n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv13rxpgk9o), \n\n> Far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir - whose Jewish Power party brought the vote - celebrated late on Monday by handing out sweets.\n\nAs reported by [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/10/middleeast/israel-parliament-death-penalty-foreign-media-hnk-intl), \n\n> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously opposed the bill, citing concerns over potential retaliation against Israeli hostages held in Gaza. However, he has since reversed his stance following the implementation of a fragile ceasefire.\n\nThe bill has been described as \"controversial\" by Western sources, but its sponsors have stated its importance in light of recent events and current conflicts.\n\n> MK Sonn Har Melech: “I stand here in the name of all the bereaved brothers, widows and orphans. I stand here in the name of my own personal orphans. A death penalty for terrorists is a personal and national obligation. I stand here before you in the name of the thousands of combatants and murder victims and their families, and I am crying out that the time has come to change the preconception. This bill is a moral and national response, it is a bill of justice, which says that Jewish blood is not forfeit.\"\n>  \n> MK Vaturi: “This is a watershed moment. I think that this bill is very important for the people of Israel. We must not be ashamed and bow our head. We must pass this bill. After October 7, there are no more doubts. We owe this to our murdered brothers.\"\n>  \n> MK Tzvika Foghel (Otzma Yehudit): “This is a historic moment. Whoever comes to murder Jews from hatred of the State of Israel—will bear the consequences. There will be no more hotels for terrorists, there will be no more release deals. This is a first and significant step towards creating real deterrence and justice for the victims.\"\n\nThe Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists) will need to pass second and third readings before it can officially pass into law." }, { "id": 40862, "title": "Will Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who urged troops to defy \"illegal\" orders, be recalled to active duty in the US military before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Sen. Mark Kelly be recalled to active duty before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Sen. Mark Kelly be recalled to active duty before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-sen-mark-kelly-be-recalled-to-active-duty-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-24T22:52:43.959095Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T23:20:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T06:29:10.410138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-24T23:20:46.161049Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40520, "title": "Will Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, who urged troops to defy \"illegal\" orders, be recalled to active duty in the US military before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-24T22:52:43.959541Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-29T23:20:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-29T23:20:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "AP (November 24, 2025): [Pentagon says it’s investigating Sen. Mark Kelly over video urging troops to defy ‘illegal orders’](https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-mark-kelly-troop-investigation-4882f76b05dcdfa3060c284c2c84dd12)\n\n> The Pentagon announced Monday it is investigating Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona over possible breaches of military law after the former Navy pilot joined a handful of other lawmakers [in a video](https://apnews.com/article/trump-military-traitors-sedition-illegal-orders-c5fc3c5bd2fbc6b1204550e4203c24b2) that called for troops to defy “illegal orders.”\n\n> The Pentagon’s statement, posted on social media, cited a federal law that allows retired service members to be recalled to active duty on orders of the defense secretary for possible court martial or other measures.\n\n> It is extraordinary for the Pentagon, which until President Donald Trump’s second term had usually gone out of its way to act and appear apolitical, to directly threaten a sitting member of Congress with investigation. It comes after Trump ramped up the rhetoric by accusing the lawmakers of sedition “punishable by DEATH” in a social media post days after the video was released last week.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) Senator Mark Kelly has been placed on Active Duty status in the [United States Armed Forces](https://www.war.gov/About/Our-Forces/). ", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Sen. Mark Kelly be recalled to active duty before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40862, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764916140.052986, "end_time": 1767594539.898, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764916140.052986, "end_time": 1767594539.898, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.0913450297961886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 1.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.6845884789108578, 0.16066607683687129, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "AP (November 24, 2025): [Pentagon says it’s investigating Sen. Mark Kelly over video urging troops to defy ‘illegal orders’](https://apnews.com/article/pentagon-mark-kelly-troop-investigation-4882f76b05dcdfa3060c284c2c84dd12)\n\n> The Pentagon announced Monday it is investigating Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona over possible breaches of military law after the former Navy pilot joined a handful of other lawmakers [in a video](https://apnews.com/article/trump-military-traitors-sedition-illegal-orders-c5fc3c5bd2fbc6b1204550e4203c24b2) that called for troops to defy “illegal orders.”\n\n> The Pentagon’s statement, posted on social media, cited a federal law that allows retired service members to be recalled to active duty on orders of the defense secretary for possible court martial or other measures.\n\n> It is extraordinary for the Pentagon, which until President Donald Trump’s second term had usually gone out of its way to act and appear apolitical, to directly threaten a sitting member of Congress with investigation. It comes after Trump ramped up the rhetoric by accusing the lawmakers of sedition “punishable by DEATH” in a social media post days after the video was released last week." }, { "id": 40860, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Donald Trump win the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize?", "short_title": "Will Trump win the 1st FIFA Peace Prize?", "url_title": "Will Trump win the 1st FIFA Peace Prize?", "slug": "will-trump-win-the-1st-fifa-peace-prize", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-24T21:50:03.928812Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T17:42:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:38:19.382818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-24T21:50:04.371735Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T19:12:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T19:12:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T23:51:00Z", "open_time": 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"2025-11-26T19:12:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA), the world governing body of association football (also known as soccer), has announced its intention to award a [Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/peace-prize-award-football-unites-the-world-infantino), \"to reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace and by doing so have united people across the world.\" The winner of the award is planned to be announced on December 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C., at the [draw for the 2026 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw), which is to be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.\n\nFIFA President Gianni Infantino calls U.S. President Donald Trump a [close friend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o), and many have [speculated](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o) that the FIFA Peace Prize will be awarded to Trump, particularly after Trump was passed over for the more well-known [Nobel Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31089/trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40777,\"question_id\":40436}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is announced to be the winner of the first FIFA Peace Prize.", "fine_print": "If multiple winners are announced, this question will still resolve as **Yes** as long as Donald Trump is specifically named among the list of winners. If no Peace Prize winner is announced before April 1, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.", "short_title": "Will Trump win the 1st FIFA Peace Prize?", "post_id": 40860, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764183409.450637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764183409.450637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5859414370753596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA), the world governing body of association football (also known as soccer), has announced its intention to award a [Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/peace-prize-award-football-unites-the-world-infantino), \"to reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace and by doing so have united people across the world.\" The winner of the award is planned to be announced on December 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C., at the [draw for the 2026 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw), which is to be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.\n\nFIFA President Gianni Infantino calls U.S. President Donald Trump a [close friend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o), and many have [speculated](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o) that the FIFA Peace Prize will be awarded to Trump, particularly after Trump was passed over for the more well-known [Nobel Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31089/trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40777,\"question_id\":40436}}`" }, { "id": 40854, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-announce-a-new-capital-before-jan-3-2026", "author_id": 245211, 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"", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2026, Iran officially announces that it plans to move its capital to a specific location.", "fine_print": "* The announcement has to include a the new location of the capital, at list at the level of a specific county. Announcements that mention moving the capital, but not a specific new location will not suffice to resolve this question.\n* The announcement alone will be sufficient for resolution, regardless of any subsequent implementation details, such as when the capital is planned to be moved, whether government institutions actually relocate, how many people move, or any other practical steps.", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "post_id": 40854, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765221561.83983, "end_time": 1765260710.723, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765221561.83983, "end_time": 1765260710.723, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.040160569563057615 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.534520964542322, 0.19928293991132054, 2.0672475345003867, 2.3589049242661697, 2.1403267315658483, 0.12341430151898708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9292991145104746, 0.4428285697262616, 1.1907592465045866, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012201884674984505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20926539955466936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 298, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…" }, { "id": 40852, "title": "Will the US House of Representatives censure, expel or reprimand any of its members before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US House censure, expel or reprimand any of its members by Apr 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US House censure, expel or reprimand any of its members by Apr 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-house-censure-expel-or-reprimand-any-of-its-members-by-apr-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-24T01:55:08.040221Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T11:40:32Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-08T10:15:12.800350Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-24T11:41:07.901350Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-25T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40511, "title": "Will the US House of Representatives censure, expel or reprimand any of its members before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-24T01:55:08.040637Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-29T11:40:32Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-29T11:40:32Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wall Street Journal (November 22, 2025): [Congress Turns Chaotic as Lawmakers Target Each Other](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/house-representatives-censure-votes-chaos-db3a33b7)\n\n> WASHINGTON—Some House lawmakers want their colleagues punished, and it’s driving everyone else a little mad.\n\n> Members demanded a series of votes to censure or otherwise denounce colleagues this week, and one threatened an expulsion, all taking advantage of a House rule that allows any single lawmaker to get a vote on a privileged resolution. With the House back in town this month after 54 days out of session, interpersonal dramas and long-running feuds burst into the open, sometimes turning members against their own parties, and leadership was largely powerless to stop it.\n\n> Rep. Nancy Mace (R., S.C.) called GOP colleague Rep. Cory Mills (R., Fla.) a “piece of s—” and “coward” to his face, according to members who overheard the exchange. This came as her [resolution to censure](https://www.wsj.com/politics/ethics-probe-of-rep-cory-mills-moves-ahead-as-possible-censure-vote-looms-30b47ad5?mod=article_inline) the Florida congressman over a series of alleged misdeeds was being read on the floor by the clerk. Some members said they had never seen anything like it.\n\nNew York Times (November 22, 2025): [In the House, Censures Proliferate, Reflecting a Poisonous Climate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/)\n\n> The purported offenses ran the gamut. One Democrat plotted to handpick his successor, while another texted with the convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. A Republican was accused by his colleagues of contracting abuses, faking his military honors and assaulting a woman at his apartment. A third Democrat was indicted on charges that she stole Federal Emergency Management Agency funds.\n\n> It was a vivid illustration of how official House rebukes, once exceedingly rare and mostly a matter of consensus for the most egregious conduct or illegal acts by a sitting member of Congress, have become commonplace in recent years.\n\n> Members of both parties have stepped up the use of censure resolutions as a partisan political weapon. Many of them include accusations by lawmakers that in the past would first have been investigated by the House Ethics Committee — and often weighed in court — before reaching the floor if found to be valid.\n\nFor base rate information, please see [List of Individuals Expelled, Censured, or Reprimanded in the U.S. House of Representatives](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States House of Representatives passes a resolution censuring, expelling or reprimanding a sitting Representative. If no such resolution passes before that date, the question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "Examples of resolutions that would count are [H.Res.189](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-resolution/189) censuring Representative Al Green, [H.Res.878](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-resolution/878) expelling Representative George Santos, and [H.Res.1074](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-resolution/1074) reprimanding Representative David Schweikert. ", "short_title": "Will the US House censure, expel or reprimand any of its members by Apr 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40852, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765188902.435962, "end_time": 1765440642.136, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765188902.435962, "end_time": 1765440642.136, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3662209707025579 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.9937042483818023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Wall Street Journal (November 22, 2025): [Congress Turns Chaotic as Lawmakers Target Each Other](https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/house-representatives-censure-votes-chaos-db3a33b7)\n\n> WASHINGTON—Some House lawmakers want their colleagues punished, and it’s driving everyone else a little mad.\n\n> Members demanded a series of votes to censure or otherwise denounce colleagues this week, and one threatened an expulsion, all taking advantage of a House rule that allows any single lawmaker to get a vote on a privileged resolution. With the House back in town this month after 54 days out of session, interpersonal dramas and long-running feuds burst into the open, sometimes turning members against their own parties, and leadership was largely powerless to stop it.\n\n> Rep. Nancy Mace (R., S.C.) called GOP colleague Rep. Cory Mills (R., Fla.) a “piece of s—” and “coward” to his face, according to members who overheard the exchange. This came as her [resolution to censure](https://www.wsj.com/politics/ethics-probe-of-rep-cory-mills-moves-ahead-as-possible-censure-vote-looms-30b47ad5?mod=article_inline) the Florida congressman over a series of alleged misdeeds was being read on the floor by the clerk. Some members said they had never seen anything like it.\n\nNew York Times (November 22, 2025): [In the House, Censures Proliferate, Reflecting a Poisonous Climate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/)\n\n> The purported offenses ran the gamut. One Democrat plotted to handpick his successor, while another texted with the convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein. A Republican was accused by his colleagues of contracting abuses, faking his military honors and assaulting a woman at his apartment. A third Democrat was indicted on charges that she stole Federal Emergency Management Agency funds.\n\n> It was a vivid illustration of how official House rebukes, once exceedingly rare and mostly a matter of consensus for the most egregious conduct or illegal acts by a sitting member of Congress, have become commonplace in recent years.\n\n> Members of both parties have stepped up the use of censure resolutions as a partisan political weapon. Many of them include accusations by lawmakers that in the past would first have been investigated by the House Ethics Committee — and often weighed in court — before reaching the floor if found to be valid.\n\nFor base rate information, please see [List of Individuals Expelled, Censured, or Reprimanded in the U.S. House of Representatives](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/)" }, { "id": 40849, "title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-tesla-discontinue-the-cybertruck-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-23T02:26:46.092057Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T03:26:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-07T11:19:46.253103Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-23T03:27:10.224854Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-09T04:34:26.865005Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40508, "title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-23T02:26:46.092499Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T03:26:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T03:26:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon)\n\n> The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire.\n\nElektrek (September 13, 2025): [Tesla discontinues cheapest Cybertruck, no one wanted it](https://electrek.co/2025/09/13/tesla-discontinues-cheapest-cybertruck/)\n\n> Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.\n\n> No one wanted the gutted electric truck.\n\n> There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.\n\n> Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.\n\n> Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.\n\nInside EVs (September 14, 2025): [The Cheapest Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead](https://insideevs.com/news/772205/tesla-cybertruck-rwd-discontinued-2025/) \n\n> Pour one out for the bargain-bin Cybertruck. After just five months of orders, Tesla has removed the ability for owners to buy the cheapest variant of the Cybertruck: the rear-wheel-drive model.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Tesla discontinues retail sales of the Cybertruck. For purposes of this question, this is defined as one of the following occurring:\n\n1. Removing the ability for customers in the United States to place an order to purchase a new Cybertruck from the [Tesla website](https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck), with no intention to restore it according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n2. Tesla (or anyone authorized to speak on the company's behalf) announcing that the Cybertruck will no longer be either produced for or sold new to retail customers in the United States, effective before the date mentioned above.", "fine_print": "Discontinuation of certain models does not count as long as any model of Cybertruck is still available. For example, if Tesla discontinues the All Wheel Drive Cybertruck but the Cyberbeast is still available, it does not count. \n\nDiscontinuation of Cybertruck sales to the retail market, but continuing sales to the enterprise market (such to SpaceX or to government customers), counts.\n\nTemporary pauses, such as supply chain or production issues, do not count.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity, Metaculus may rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to determine the truth of the matter.", "short_title": "Will Tesla discontinue the Cybertruck before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40849, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765176616.688, "end_time": 1765711176.294, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765176616.688, "end_time": 1765711176.294, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "centers": [ 0.075 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.925, 0.075 ], "means": [ 0.11679401261316136 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1237470244838175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6011664458479348, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TorqueNews (October 28, 2025): [Why Tesla Will Cancel Cybertruck Production Soon](https://www.torquenews.com/18004/why-tesla-will-cancel-cybertruck-production-soon)\n\n> The future looked really bright for the Tesla Cybertruck back in early 2021 when it had over a million reservations, and Elon Musk estimated that Tesla could sell about a half-million trucks annually. Things continued to look good after its first year of production, as Tesla managed to ship about 46,000 units. This wasn’t a bad production ramp for the first year of a new vehicle with a production line capacity of 125,000 units per year. However, between then and now, the situation has become dire.\n\nElektrek (September 13, 2025): [Tesla discontinues cheapest Cybertruck, no one wanted it](https://electrek.co/2025/09/13/tesla-discontinues-cheapest-cybertruck/)\n\n> Tesla has discontinued the cheapest version of the Cybertruck just a few months after launching it.\n\n> No one wanted the gutted electric truck.\n\n> There’s no hiding it. The Cybertruck is a commercial flop.\n\n> Tesla claimed to have over 1 million reservations for the vehicle. It planned for a production capacity of up to 250,000 units per year, and CEO Elon Musk even said that he believes it could increase to 500,000 units per year.\n\n> Meanwhile, Tesla is currently selling the Cybertruck at a rate of roughly 20,000 units per year.\n\nInside EVs (September 14, 2025): [The Cheapest Tesla Cybertruck Is Dead](https://insideevs.com/news/772205/tesla-cybertruck-rwd-discontinued-2025/) \n\n> Pour one out for the bargain-bin Cybertruck. After just five months of orders, Tesla has removed the ability for owners to buy the cheapest variant of the Cybertruck: the rear-wheel-drive model." }, { "id": 40846, "title": "Will BLK's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "short_title": "BLK's close price rises?", "url_title": "BLK's close price rises?", "slug": "blks-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:47.326113Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T18:54:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T22:35:24.495204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:47.593303Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T17:37:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T17:37:02Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T18:54:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40505, "title": "Will BLK's market close price on 2025-12-05 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:47.326550Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T18:54:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T17:37:02Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T17:37:02Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T22:35:23.968035Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BlackRock, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BLK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:27) is 1014.72. You can find more information about BlackRock, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLK\n\nBlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Greenwich, Connecticut; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Newport Beach, California; Palo Alto, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Princeton, New Jersey; San Francisco, California; Santa Monica, California; Seattle, Washington; Washington, DC; West Palm Beach, Florida; Wilmington, Delaware; Mexico; Canada; South Africa; Netherlands; Greece; Serbia; Belgium; Hungary; Denmark; Ireland; Scotland; Germany; Switzerland; England; Luxembourg; Spain; Italy; France; Sweden; Austria; India; China; Australia; Hong Kong; South Korea; Singapore; Taiwan; Japan; Colombia; Argentina; Peru; Chile; Brazil; UAE; Saudi Arabia; Israel.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BLK\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BLK. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BLK's close price rises?", "post_id": 40846, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764358264.580355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764358264.580355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5430347407407405 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 5.0, 21.0, 8.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.348029810888255, "peer_score": 1.723056860558056, "coverage": 0.9663816025963535, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02264909104815268, "weighted_coverage": 0.9663816025963535, "spot_peer_score": 2.027058836501198, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.348029810888255, "peer_archived_score": 1.723056860558056, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02264909104815268, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.027058836501198, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "BlackRock, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BLK. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:27) is 1014.72. You can find more information about BlackRock, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BLK\n\nBlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York, New York with additional offices in Atlanta, Georgia; Boston, Massachusetts; Chicago, Illinois; Dallas, Texas; Denver, Colorado; Greenwich, Connecticut; Houston, Texas; Miami, Florida; Newport Beach, California; Palo Alto, California; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Princeton, New Jersey; San Francisco, California; Santa Monica, California; Seattle, Washington; Washington, DC; West Palm Beach, Florida; Wilmington, Delaware; Mexico; Canada; South Africa; Netherlands; Greece; Serbia; Belgium; Hungary; Denmark; Ireland; Scotland; Germany; Switzerland; England; Luxembourg; Spain; Italy; France; Sweden; Austria; India; China; Australia; Hong Kong; South Korea; Singapore; Taiwan; Japan; Colombia; Argentina; Peru; Chile; Brazil; UAE; Saudi Arabia; Israel.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BLK\"}}`" }, { "id": 40844, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-bailout-argentina-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.229336Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T05:22:26Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T22:35:25.055533Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.530713Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T17:59:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T17:59:30Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T05:22:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40503, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 24.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.229759Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T05:22:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T17:59:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T17:59:30Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T22:35:24.734323Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T06:52:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031\n- Original question title: Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n> \n> * Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n> * Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n> * Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n> \n> In the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n> \n> During Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n> \n> Prior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n> \n> In September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 17:59:30 is higher than 24.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40844, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764310745.965709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764310745.965709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3800475185185186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 33.96890202046819, "peer_score": 17.389587522337006, "coverage": 0.9682014853866012, "relative_legacy_score": -0.005252003186879389, "weighted_coverage": 0.9682014853866012, "spot_peer_score": 15.20915611787756, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 33.96890202046819, "peer_archived_score": 17.389587522337006, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.005252003186879389, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.20915611787756, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031\n- Original question title: Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 24.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n> \n> * Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n> * Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n> * Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n> \n> In the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n> \n> During Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n> \n> Prior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n> \n> In September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572,\"last_cp\":0.24}}`" }, { "id": 40843, "title": "Will FDX's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "short_title": "FDX's close price rises?", "url_title": "FDX's close price rises?", "slug": "fdxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.843396Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T00:53:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-07T17:46:53.682363Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:46.058003Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T02:29:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T02:29:06Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T00:53:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40502, "title": "Will FDX's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-28?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.843809Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T00:53:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T02:29:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T02:29:06Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-07T17:46:50.828164Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T02:23:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "FedEx Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FDX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:23) is 269.43. You can find more information about FedEx Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDX\n\nFedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. It also provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, free Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, expedited U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean freight-forwarding and cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage and clearance, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FDX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FDX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FDX's close price rises?", "post_id": 40843, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764295176.698423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764295176.698423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5408358634538152 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 9.0, 7.0, 17.0, 4.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.229109149870443, "peer_score": -0.3947441213702816, "coverage": 0.9067138007393587, "relative_legacy_score": -0.004533714293910041, "weighted_coverage": 0.9067138007393587, "spot_peer_score": -1.5629406759445685, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -14.229109149870443, "peer_archived_score": -0.3947441213702816, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.004533714293910041, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.5629406759445685, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "FedEx Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FDX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:23) is 269.43. You can find more information about FedEx Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FDX\n\nFedEx Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides transportation, e-commerce, and business services in the United States and internationally. It operates through Federal Express and FedEx Freight segments. The company offers transportation services, including express, freight, less-than-truckload freight, and time-specific freight-shipping; and small-package ground delivery services. It also provides e-commerce and digital solutions; dataworks; printing and shipping management, including digital printing, professional finishing, document creation, design solutions, direct mail, signs and graphics, custom-branded boxes, copying, computer rental, free Wi-Fi, corporate print solutions, shredding, expedited U.S. passport processing and renewal, and digital notarization; packing services, as well as packing supplies and boxes; document and business services; and retail access for package transportation. In addition, the company offers logistics services, air and ocean freight-forwarding and cargo transportation, specialty transportation, customs brokerage and clearance, trade management tools and data, and door-to-door solutions; and third party logistics and supply chain management solutions, such as inbound logistics, warehousing and distribution, fulfillment, contract packaging and product configuration, systems integration, returns process and disposition, test, repair, refurbishment, and product liquidation. Further, it provides sales, marketing, administrative, information technology, and back-office support services. FedEx Corporation was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FDX\"}}`" }, { "id": 40842, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-ali-khamenei-cease-to-be-supreme-leader-of-iran-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.331617Z", "published_at": "2025-11-27T23:17:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T22:35:25.329899Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.592786Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T21:07:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T21:07:19Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T23:17:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40501, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.332040Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T23:17:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T21:07:19Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T21:07:19Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T22:35:25.303075Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-28T00:47:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 21:07:19 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40842, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764288800.548009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23809333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764288800.548009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.23809333333333332 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7619066666666667, 0.23809333333333332 ], "means": [ 0.24993540740740747 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 17.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.042181864884334, "peer_score": 3.904274442276761, "coverage": 0.9677503127963454, "relative_legacy_score": 0.035925764075611905, "weighted_coverage": 0.9677503127963454, "spot_peer_score": 3.812760286678465, "spot_baseline_score": 60.768618395433364, "baseline_archived_score": 58.042181864884334, "peer_archived_score": 3.904274442276761, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.035925764075611905, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.812760286678465, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.768618395433364 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38671\n- Original question title: Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.\n> \n> Fleeing the country is defined as an indefinite departure from Iran and would also count for a Yes resolution. For example, reports that Khamenei has travelled to another country for medical treatment or a state visit would be considered temporary and would be insufficient. However, a departure in the context of a regime change in Tehran would be considered indefinite and would resolve as Yes. To assess the truth of the matter, Metaculus will consult credible source reporting. As an example, a hypothetical question on Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's [departure from Iran](https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/january-16/shah-flees-iran) in 1979 would have resolved as Yes due to the preponderance of reporting, even though Pahlavi did not relinquish his title as Shah.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since 1989 Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Leader_of_Iran), a position that has been [described](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) by Freedom House as having the ultimate power within the country. \n> \n> On June 13, 2025, Israel [launched an air campaign](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-special-edition-israeli-strikes-iran-june-13-2025-200-pm-et) targeting Iran's nuclear program and regime leadership, which killed several of Khamenei's top lieutenants such as Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Gholam Ali Rashid, commander of the central headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces (whose successor was in turn killed 4 days later in an Israeil airstrke); and Hossein Salami, who was commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. \n> \n> US President Donald Trump is [said to have vetoed](https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-said-to-veto-khamenei-assassination-netanyahu-conflict-may-result-in-regime-change/) an Israeli plan to kill Khameinei as part of its campaign against Iran. Two days later Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114699610769479275) on social media: \n> \n> > We know exactly where the so-called “Supreme Leader” is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there - We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. But we don’t want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin. Thank you for your attention to this matter!\n> \n> On June 19, 2025, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, [said](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/19/israel-threatens-irans-top-leader-after-missiles-damage-hospital-and-wound-more-than-200-00414195) Israel's military \"has been instructed and knows that in order to achieve all of its goals, this man absolutely should not continue to exist.\" Additionally, regime change is another Israeli and American objective that has emerged since the start of the campaign.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38671,\"question_id\":37895,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40841, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-argentinas-yoy-inflation-below-30-for-december-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:44.932306Z", "published_at": "2025-11-27T15:24:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T23:40:52.295804Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:45.156112Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T04:15:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T04:15:16Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T15:24:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40500, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2025-12-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:44.932763Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T15:24:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T04:15:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-04T04:15:16Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T23:40:51.966629Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T16:54:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117\n- Original question title: Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n> \n> This question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n> \n> However, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n> \n> According to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117). If the community prediction on 2025-12-04 04:15:16 is higher than 55.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Argentina's YoY inflation below 30% for December 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40841, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764260081.452274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764260081.452274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.48877597069597095 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.308227822518097, "peer_score": 13.87623257429036, "coverage": 0.9865532998243967, "relative_legacy_score": 0.03353384414386597, "weighted_coverage": 0.9865532998243967, "spot_peer_score": 12.351403871007731, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 13.308227822518097, "peer_archived_score": 13.87623257429036, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.03353384414386597, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.351403871007731, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31117\n- Original question title: Will Argentina's year-over-year inflation be below 30% for December 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if Argentina's year-over-year inflation rate is strictly less than 30.0% for the month of December 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses of Argentina (INDEC), whose monthly report can be accessed [here](https://sdds.indec.gob.ar/nsdp.htm).\n> \n> This question will resolve based on the \"Anual Growth Rate (%)\" value found for \"Consumer Prices\" when the \"Date of Latest\" value is Dec-25.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The specific link to the INDEC monthly report is provided solely for convenience; if the data is available elsewhere, then that will be used for resolution. If there are other issues with accessing data at the INDEC website, then Metaculus may use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) to resolve this question, as long as their numbers are consistent with previous numbers INDEC.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In December 2023, when Javier Milei was inaugurated as President of Argentina, the [month-over-month inflation rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-rate-mom) of the country was 25.5%. Milei's top campaign promise [was](https://www.freiheit.org/one-year-javier-mileis-economic-policy) to fight inflation. Since then, the inflation rate has steadily come down to 2.4% for November 2024. Argentina's YoY inflation rate was 211% for December 2023, the highest in the world, and rose further to [292% for April 2024](https://tradingeconomics.com/argentina/inflation-cpi), but has since fallen to 166%.\n> \n> However, despite the drop in inflation, the annual inflation rate for 2025 is projected by [the IMF](https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/ARG) to be 62.7% for 2025 as of December 2024. Additionally, poverty [has risen](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ceqn751x19no) in the country due to the short-term shock caused by slashing subsidies in transportation, fuel and electricity, as well as the elimination of thousands of government jobs.\n> \n> According to [economist Juan D'Amico](https://medium.com/@JDEconomics/milei-has-outperformed-even-the-most-bullish-inflation-forecasts-for-argentina-in-2024-what-to-e0a8939f2142), forecasts have consistently been wrong to the high side on Argentina's inflation. For example, a group of economists opposed to Milei had forecasted 2024 inflation of 400%, while even some of the more optimistic forecasts were around 240%.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":31117,\"question_id\":30847,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 40839, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 94.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-elon-musk-be-worlds-richest-person-on-dec-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:43.944778Z", "published_at": "2025-11-27T10:31:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T23:40:52.984571Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:44.197498Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:03:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:03:59Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T10:31:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40498, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 94.00% on 2025-12-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:43.945254Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T10:31:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:03:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-05T22:03:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T23:40:52.670298Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-27T12:01:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 94.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If both Elon Musk and another individual are ranked #1, this resolves as **No**.\n> * If the Billionaires Index is not available on December 31, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available. If it is not available before January 4, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * Bloomberg outlines its methodology [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/methodology/).\n> * In the event of Bloomberg changing its methodology for calculating the net worths of the individuals on its list, Admins will make a determination about whether the change is substantial enough to annul the question, at their discretion.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Bloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n> \n> Elon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n> \n> Secondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30863,\"question_id\":30605,\"last_cp\":0.94}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863). If the community prediction on 2025-12-05 22:03:59 is higher than 94.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will Elon Musk be world's richest person on Dec 31, 2025?\"?", "post_id": 40839, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764242901.240774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764242901.240774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5553479443223441 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 19.422218070709754, "peer_score": 11.099667301331737, "coverage": 0.9447053822323127, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03813297261538038, "weighted_coverage": 0.9447053822323127, "spot_peer_score": 12.337819938060115, "spot_baseline_score": 20.163386116965043, "baseline_archived_score": 19.422218070709754, "peer_archived_score": 11.099667301331737, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03813297261538038, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.337819938060115, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 20.163386116965043 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30863\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be the world's richest person on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 94.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the [Bloomberg Billionaires Index](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), Elon Musk is ranked #1 in net worth when the resolution source is accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2025. If Musk is not ranked #1, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If both Elon Musk and another individual are ranked #1, this resolves as **No**.\n> * If the Billionaires Index is not available on December 31, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available. If it is not available before January 4, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * Bloomberg outlines its methodology [here](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/methodology/).\n> * In the event of Bloomberg changing its methodology for calculating the net worths of the individuals on its list, Admins will make a determination about whether the change is substantial enough to annul the question, at their discretion.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Bloomberg maintains its [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/), which is a tracker that is updated every day, ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. In recent years, the list [has been topped](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires) by Bernard Arnault & family, Jeff Bezos, and Bill Gates. As of December 20, 2024, Elon Musk is in first place on the list, with \\$455 billion, as compared with Jeff Bezos in second place with \\$242 billion, Mark Zuckerberg in third place with \\$211 billion, and Larry Ellison in fourth place with \\$190 billion.\n> \n> Elon Musk's wealth comes first and primarily from his shares of [Tesla](https://www.tesla.com/). According to Tesla's [proxy statement for 2024](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465924048040/tm2326076d13_pre14a.htm), Musk beneficially owned 20.5% of Tesla's shares. With a [market cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/tesla/marketcap/) at the time of this question of 1.249 Trillion, his stake in Tesla is worth 256 billion.\n> \n> Secondly, Elon Musk [reportedly owns](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/musk-net-worth-spacex-trump-b2660290.html) 42% of [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/), which was recently valued at \\$210 billion. This stake is worth \\$88 billion, at that valuation. Additional stakes owned by Musk are 54%of [xAI](https://x.ai/), a startup valued at 50 billion; [Neuralink](https://neuralink.com/), which was valued at \\$5 billion; the [Boring Company](http://www.boringcompany.com/), valued at \\$5.68 billion in 2022, and, X (formerly Twitter), which was [recently valued](https://www.axios.com/2024/12/01/elon-musk-x-fidelity-mark-up) at about \\$12 billion.\n> \n> ***\n> \n> This question belongs to Vox's Future Perfect Community page and 2025 forecasting tournament. [Learn more and compete for the \\$2,500 prize pool](https://www.metaculus.com/c/future-perfect/).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":30863,\"question_id\":30605,\"last_cp\":0.94}}`" }, { "id": 40834, "title": "Will UBER's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "UBER's close price rises?", "url_title": "UBER's close price rises?", "slug": "ubers-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.546633Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T14:13:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T23:53:33.065002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.895460Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:11:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:11:30Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T14:13:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40493, "title": "Will UBER's market close price on 2025-12-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.547060Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T14:13:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:11:30Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T12:11:30Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T23:53:30.264770Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T15:43:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Uber Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is UBER. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:30) is 83.87. You can find more information about Uber Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER\n\nUber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retails, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics network, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized business to global enterprises. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UBER\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of UBER. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "UBER's close price rises?", "post_id": 40834, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764171398.41488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764171398.41488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5644295238095234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 5.0, 8.0, 21.0, 8.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.332387226816174, "peer_score": -1.393959671137758, "coverage": 0.9597997618604592, "relative_legacy_score": 0.002936701522959026, "weighted_coverage": 0.9597997618604592, "spot_peer_score": -1.8439390294764877, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.332387226816174, "peer_archived_score": -1.393959671137758, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.002936701522959026, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8439390294764877, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Uber Technologies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is UBER. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:30) is 83.87. You can find more information about Uber Technologies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UBER\n\nUber Technologies, Inc. develops and operates proprietary technology applications in the United States, Canada, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through three segments: Mobility, Delivery, and Freight. The Mobility segment connects consumers with a range of transportation modalities, such as ridesharing, carsharing, micromobility, rentals, public transit, taxis, and other modalities; and offers riders in a variety of vehicle types, as well as financial partnerships products and advertising services. The Delivery segment allows consumers to search for and discover restaurants to grocery, alcohol, convenience, and other retails, as well as order a meal or other items, and either pick-up at the restaurant or have it delivered; and provides Uber direct, a white-label delivery-as-a-service for retailers and restaurants, as well as advertising services. The Freight segment manages transportation and logistics network, which connects shippers and carriers in digital marketplace, including carriers upfronts, pricing, and shipment booking; and offers on-demand platform to automate logistics end-to-end transactions for small-and medium-sized business to global enterprises. The company was formerly known as Ubercab, Inc. and changed its name to Uber Technologies, Inc. in February 2011. Uber Technologies, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UBER\"}}`" }, { "id": 40833, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-doj-to-investigate-or-prosecute-top-democrat-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:40.866741Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T11:35:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T23:53:38.612783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:41.281820Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T10:01:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T10:01:47Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T11:35:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40492, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2025-12-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:40.867203Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T11:35:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T10:01:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-03T10:01:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T23:53:35.795758Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T13:05:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514). If the community prediction on 2025-12-03 10:01:47 is higher than 10.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"DOJ to investigate or prosecute top Democrat before 2026?\"?", "post_id": 40833, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764160397.280555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764160397.280555, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4634765567765568 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 21.84341551019683, "peer_score": 28.560065597049345, "coverage": 0.9868702140560857, "relative_legacy_score": -0.06608618563360658, "weighted_coverage": 0.9868702140560857, "spot_peer_score": 27.42750086559334, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "baseline_archived_score": 21.84341551019683, "peer_archived_score": 28.560065597049345, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.06608618563360658, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.42750086559334, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34514\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice announce an investigation or prosecution of a Democrat who served as president, vice president, congressional leader, whip, or impeachment manager before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-11-22: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announces a new investigation or prosecution of a high-profile Democrat, which is for purposes of this question defined as an individual who meets any of the following criteria before January 1, 2026:\n> \n> \\- Has served as Democratic President or Vice President of the United States.\n> \n> \\- Has held any of the following leadership roles in the House of Representatives or Senate (Speaker of the House or House Minority/Democratic Leader, Senate Majority or Minority/Democratic Leader, House or Senate Majority/Democratic Whip).\n> \n> -Has served as an impeachment manager during either of the impeachment proceedings against Donald Trump (2019–2020 or 2020–2021). The 2019-2020 impeachment managers were Adam Schiff, Jerry Nadler, Zoe Lofgren, Hakeem Jeffries, Val Demings, Sylvia Garcia, and Jason Crow. The 2020-2021 impeachment managers were Jamie Raskin, Diana DeGette, David Cicilline, Joaquin Castro, Eric Swalwell, Ted Lieu, Stacey Plaskett, Madeline Dean, and Joe Neguse.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> \\- The DOJ must publicly and officially announce the initiation of an investigation or prosecution against the individual.\n> \n> \\- The resolution does not require a conviction or final outcome—only the announcement of a formal investigation or prosecution.\n> \n> \\- For clarity, the question includes impeachment managers formally appointed for Trump’s impeachment proceedings and leadership roles active as of the time of the DOJ’s announcement.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question based on [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nOriginal background: \n> During his 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump [<u>repeatedly vowed to pursue investigations and prosecutions against political opponents</u>](https://www.foxnews.com/media/trump-addresses-concerns-he-would-seek-retribution-i-would-have-every-right-go-after-them?msockid=1772840357ba6b8c2861908256286a1f). Prosecution of a high-profile Democrat by the DOJ under the Trump administration would reflect a notable shift in precedent given these campaign promises.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34514,\"question_id\":34029,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`" }, { "id": 40831, "title": "Will ADM's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "ADM's close price rises?", "url_title": "ADM's close price rises?", "slug": "adms-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:39.889575Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T08:01:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T23:53:49.788360Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:40.140307Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T14:48:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T14:48:40Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T08:01:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40490, "title": "Will ADM's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:39.889989Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T08:01:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T14:48:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T14:48:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T23:53:46.971120Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T09:31:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Archer-Daniels-Midland Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ADM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:20) is 58.63. You can find more information about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADM\n\nArcher-Daniels-Midland Company engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company originates, merchandises, stores, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds and soft seeds. It engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and various structured trade finance activities. In addition, the company offers soybean meal and oil; vegetable and salad oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, it provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; corn germ; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides proteins, natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and food products. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouse; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ADM\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ADM. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is ADM. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:20) is 58.63. You can find more information about Archer-Daniels-Midland Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADM\n\nArcher-Daniels-Midland Company engages in the procurement, transportation, storage, processing, and merchandising of agricultural commodities, ingredients, flavors, and solutions. It operates in three segments: Ag Services and Oilseeds; Carbohydrate Solutions; and Nutrition. The company originates, merchandises, stores, and transports agricultural raw materials, such as oilseeds and soft seeds. It engages in the agricultural commodity and feed product import, export, and distribution; and various structured trade finance activities. In addition, the company offers soybean meal and oil; vegetable and salad oils and protein meals; ingredients for the food, feed, energy, and industrial customers; margarine, shortening, and other food products; and partially refined oils to produce biodiesel and glycols for use in chemicals, paints, and other industrial products. Further, it provides peanuts, peanut-derived ingredients, and cotton cellulose pulp; sweeteners, corn and wheat starches, syrup, glucose, wheat flour, and dextrose; alcohol, and other food and animal feed ingredients; ethyl alcohol and ethanol; corn gluten feed and meal; distillers' grains; corn germ; and citric acids. Additionally, the company provides proteins, natural flavors, flavor systems, natural colors, emulsifiers, soluble fiber, polyols, hydrocolloids, probiotics, prebiotics, postbiotics, enzymes, and botanical extracts; and other specialty food and feed ingredients; edible beans; formula feeds, and animal health and nutrition products; and contract and private label pet treats and food products. It also offers futures commission merchant; commodity brokerage; cash margins and securities pledged to commodity exchange clearinghouse; and cash pledged as security under certain insurance arrangements. It operates in the United States, Switzerland, the Cayman Islands, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company was founded in 1902 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ADM\"}}`" }, { "id": 40826, "title": "Will DOV's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "short_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "url_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "slug": "dovs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.226507Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T23:54:22.967381Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.511227Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-11-24", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-24", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-06T01:40:52.046507Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40485, "title": "Will DOV's market close price on 2025-12-02 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-26?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:37.227202Z", "open_time": "2025-11-25T22:37:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-02T03:46:55Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-05T23:54:20.170611Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-26T00:07:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dover Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:40) is 183.58. You can find more information about Dover Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOV\n\nDover Corporation provides equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company's Engineered Products segment provides various equipment, component, software, solution, and services that are used in vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, and fluid dispensing end-market. This segment offers software solutions and services used in light and heavy-duty vehicle lifts, wheel service equipment, vehicle diagnostics, and vehicle collision repair solutions; winches, hoists, bearings, drives, and electric monitoring system; and radio frequency and microwave filters and switches, and signal intelligence solutions, as well as soldering and fluid dispensing solutions. Its Clean Energy & Fueling segment offers component, equipment, and software and service solution enabling safe storage and transport of fuel, cryogenic gases, and hazardous fluids, as well as operation of retail fueling and vehicle wash establishment. The company's Imaging & Identification segment provides precision marking and coding, product traceability equipment, brand protection, and digital textile printing equipment and solution, as well as consumable, software, and service to packaged and consumer goods, pharmaceutical, industrial manufacturing, textile, and other end-market. Its Pumps & Process Solutions segment manufactures specialty pump, connector, flow meter, fluid connecting solution, plastics and polymer processing equipment, and engineered components for rotating and reciprocating machines. The company's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment manufactures refrigeration system, refrigeration display case, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer door, and brazed plate heat exchanger for industrial heating and cooling, and residential climate control applications. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of DOV. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-26, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "DOV's close price rises?", "post_id": 40826, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764113661.698648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764113661.698648, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5519507692307691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 3.0, 9.0, 18.0, 9.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.874020254679905, "peer_score": 1.1733008001186547, "coverage": 0.982362552218967, "relative_legacy_score": -0.013071887438436378, "weighted_coverage": 0.982362552218967, "spot_peer_score": 0.9852770155342758, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -14.874020254679905, "peer_archived_score": 1.1733008001186547, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.013071887438436378, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9852770155342758, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dover Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is DOV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:40) is 183.58. You can find more information about Dover Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOV\n\nDover Corporation provides equipment and components, consumable supplies, aftermarket parts, software and digital solutions, and support services worldwide. The company's Engineered Products segment provides various equipment, component, software, solution, and services that are used in vehicle aftermarket, aerospace and defense, industrial winch and hoist, and fluid dispensing end-market. This segment offers software solutions and services used in light and heavy-duty vehicle lifts, wheel service equipment, vehicle diagnostics, and vehicle collision repair solutions; winches, hoists, bearings, drives, and electric monitoring system; and radio frequency and microwave filters and switches, and signal intelligence solutions, as well as soldering and fluid dispensing solutions. Its Clean Energy & Fueling segment offers component, equipment, and software and service solution enabling safe storage and transport of fuel, cryogenic gases, and hazardous fluids, as well as operation of retail fueling and vehicle wash establishment. The company's Imaging & Identification segment provides precision marking and coding, product traceability equipment, brand protection, and digital textile printing equipment and solution, as well as consumable, software, and service to packaged and consumer goods, pharmaceutical, industrial manufacturing, textile, and other end-market. Its Pumps & Process Solutions segment manufactures specialty pump, connector, flow meter, fluid connecting solution, plastics and polymer processing equipment, and engineered components for rotating and reciprocating machines. The company's Climate & Sustainability Technologies segment manufactures refrigeration system, refrigeration display case, commercial glass refrigerator and freezer door, and brazed plate heat exchanger for industrial heating and cooling, and residential climate control applications. The company was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Downers Grove, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DOV\"}}`" } ] }
