Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6645, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 41402, "title": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "COO's close price rises?", "url_title": "COO's close price rises?", "slug": "coos-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:32.830751Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T05:30:00.165951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:33.041910Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41117, "title": "Will COO's market close price on 2026-01-17 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:32.831166Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:59:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T11:29:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:29:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Cooper Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:11) is 81.11. You can find more information about The Cooper Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO\n\nThe Cooper Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets contact lens wearers. The company operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The CooperVision segment offers spherical, toric, and multifocal contact lenses that address vision challenges, such as astigmatism, presbyopia, and myopia. Its CooperSurgical segment focuses on family and women's health care, which provides fertility products and services, medical devices, and contraception, as well as cryostorage, such as cord blood and cord tissue storage. This segment offers Paragard, a hormone-free intrauterine device; and fertility consumables and equipment, donor gamete services, and genomic services, including genetic testing. The company sells its products to distributors, group purchasing organizations, eye care and health care professionals, including independent practices, corporate retailers, hospitals and clinics, and authorized resellers. The Cooper Companies, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COO\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COO. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "COO's close price rises?", "post_id": 41402, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767675259.555492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767675259.555492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5427857828893777 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 12.0, 5.0, 21.0, 5.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Cooper Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:11) is 81.11. You can find more information about The Cooper Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COO\n\nThe Cooper Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and markets contact lens wearers. The company operates in two segments, CooperVision and CooperSurgical. The CooperVision segment offers spherical, toric, and multifocal contact lenses that address vision challenges, such as astigmatism, presbyopia, and myopia. Its CooperSurgical segment focuses on family and women's health care, which provides fertility products and services, medical devices, and contraception, as well as cryostorage, such as cord blood and cord tissue storage. This segment offers Paragard, a hormone-free intrauterine device; and fertility consumables and equipment, donor gamete services, and genomic services, including genetic testing. The company sells its products to distributors, group purchasing organizations, eye care and health care professionals, including independent practices, corporate retailers, hospitals and clinics, and authorized resellers. The Cooper Companies, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in San Ramon, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COO\"}}`" }, { "id": 41400, "title": "Will XYL's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "url_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "slug": "xyls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:25.531859Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:37:46Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T05:08:00.331763Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:25.767206Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T01:28:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:37:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41115, "title": "Will XYL's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:25.532316Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:37:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T01:28:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T05:07:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:00) is 137.11. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of XYL. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "post_id": 41400, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767675475.505447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.526 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767675475.505447, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.526 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.474, 0.526 ], "means": [ 0.5281778273151875 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 12.0, 6.0, 3.0, 12.0, 4.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:00) is 137.11. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41399, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-stock-market-go-down-by-5-in-any-week-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:21.977527Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T04:40:00.384747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:22.285189Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T07:52:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41114, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:21.977936Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T03:09:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T07:52:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T04:39:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301\n- Original question title: Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n> \n> If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n> \n> Stock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n> \n> > The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n> \n> > Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n> \n> Weekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n> \n> | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n> | ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n> | 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n> | 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n> | 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n> | 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n> | 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n> | 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n> | 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n> | 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n> | 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n> | 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n> | 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n> | 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n> | 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n> | 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n> | 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n> | 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n> | 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n> | 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n> | 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n> | 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n> | 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n> | 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n> | 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n> | 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n> | 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n> | 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n> | 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n> | 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n> | 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n> | 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n> | 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n> | 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n> | 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n> | 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n> | 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n> | 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n> | 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n> | 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n> | 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n> | 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n> | 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40301,\"question_id\":39848,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 07:52:27 is higher than 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 36.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 07:52:27, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US stock market go down by >5% in any week in Q4 2025?\"?", "post_id": 41399, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767674004.73585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767674004.73585, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2402192104252242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40301\n- Original question title: Will the US stock market go down by more than 5% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -5% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n> \n> If Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n> \n> Stock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n> \n> > The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n> \n> > Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n> \n> Weekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n> \n> | Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n> | ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n> | 10/10/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | -2.69% |\n> | 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n> | 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n> | 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n> | 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n> | 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n> | 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n> | 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n> | 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n> | 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n> | 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n> | 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n> | 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n> | 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n> | 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n> | 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n> | 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n> | 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n> | 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n> | 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n> | 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n> | 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n> | 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n> | 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n> | 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n> | 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n> | 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n> | 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n> | 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n> | 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n> | 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n> | 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n> | 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n> | 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n> | 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n> | 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n> | 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n> | 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n> | 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n> | 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n> | 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40301,\"question_id\":39848,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 41397, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-who-prequalify-moxidectin-by-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.703796Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T03:30:00.221466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.911124Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T09:45:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41112, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 86.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:14.704241Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:59:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T09:45:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T03:29:29Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395\n- Original question title: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n> \n> Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n> \n> According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n> \n> >Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n> \n> As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n> \n> However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n> \n> In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n> \n> However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n> \n> According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n> \n> >Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n> \n> >In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> - Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n> - [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n> - Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28395,\"question_id\":28395,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 09:45:54 is higher than 86.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 86.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 09:45:54, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will WHO prequalify moxidectin by 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41397, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767668987.517096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767668987.517096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3591191914577744 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28395\n- Original question title: Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 86.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.\n> \n> Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.\n> \n> According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):\n> \n> >Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.\n> \n> As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.\n> \n> However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.\n> \n> In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years. \n> \n> However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.\n> \n> According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):\n> \n> >Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities. \n> \n> >In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.\n> \n> See Also:\n> \n> - Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)\n> - [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)\n> - Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":28395,\"question_id\":28395,\"last_cp\":0.86}}`" }, { "id": 41396, "title": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "short_title": "APH's close price rises?", "url_title": "APH's close price rises?", "slug": "aphs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.104749Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T02:52:00.194282Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.446727Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41111, "title": "Will APH's market close price on 2026-01-13 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-06?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:11.105155Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T01:21:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-13T11:37:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:51:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Amphenol Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is APH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:08) is 139.71. You can find more information about Amphenol Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APH\n\nAmphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company offers connectors and connector systems, including harsh environment data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency interconnect products; busbars and power distribution systems; and power interconnect products. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, other mechanical, and production related products. In addition, the company offers consumer device, network infrastructure, and other antennas; coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and sensors and sensor-based products. Amphenol Corporation sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"APH\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of APH. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-06, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "APH's close price rises?", "post_id": 41396, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767667888.541792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767667888.541792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.580961474847644 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 4.0, 5.0, 12.0, 5.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Amphenol Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is APH. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:11:08) is 139.71. You can find more information about Amphenol Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/APH\n\nAmphenol Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and markets electrical, electronic, and fiber optic connectors in the United States, China, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Harsh Environment Solutions, Communications Solutions, and Interconnect and Sensor Systems. The company offers connectors and connector systems, including harsh environment data, power, high-speed, fiber optic, and radio frequency interconnect products; busbars and power distribution systems; and power interconnect products. It also provides value-add products, such as backplane interconnect systems, cable assemblies and harnesses, and cable management products; and other products comprising flexible and rigid printed circuit boards, hinges, other mechanical, and production related products. In addition, the company offers consumer device, network infrastructure, and other antennas; coaxial, power, and specialty cables; and sensors and sensor-based products. Amphenol Corporation sells its products through its sales force, independent representatives, and a network of electronics distributors to original equipment manufacturers, electronic manufacturing services companies, original design manufacturers, and service providers in the automotive, broadband communication, commercial aerospace, industrial, information technology and data communication, military, mobile device, and mobile network markets. The company was founded in 1932 and is headquartered in Wallingford, Connecticut.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"APH\"}}`" }, { "id": 41395, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-scotus-grant-cert-on-a-case-that-would-overturn-obergell", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.563595Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T02:11:00.298278Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.846996Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T03:50:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41110, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:07.564022Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T00:40:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T03:50:35Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T02:10:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142\n- Original question title: Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n> \n> A constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n> \n> On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n> \n> In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n> \n> Obergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39142,\"question_id\":38485,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-14 03:50:35 is higher than 6.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 6.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-14 03:50:35, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will SCOTUS grant cert on a case that would overturn Obergell?\"?", "post_id": 41395, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767665379.742775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19283333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767665379.742775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19283333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8071666666666667, 0.19283333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.23052136752136754 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39142\n- Original question title: Before July 1, 2026, will the U.S. Supreme Court agree to hear a case that could end the constitutional right to same-sex marriage?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that the U.S. Supreme Court has granted a petition for writ of certiorari in a case where a decision on the merits of a question presented could find that there is no constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples and would thereby overturn the Supreme Court's decision in [Obergefell v. Hodges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obergefell_v._Hodges). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Cases on collateral issues, such as religious exemptions that might weaken the right to same-sex marriage, will not count; only cases that directly address the question of a constitutionally protected right to marry guaranteed to same-sex couples in the United States will count. An example of a case that would count is *Davis v. Ermold and Moore*, whose [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/25/25-125/366933/20250724095150195_250720a%20Petition%20for%20efling.pdf) was filed in July 2025.\n> \n> A constitutional right to marriage for same-sex couples means that the states, US territories or possessions, the District of Columbia, or the federal government itself may not enact legislation that prohibits or substantially restricts the practice of same-sex marriage, or that fails to recognize the legal marriages of same-sex couples.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The US Supreme Court's 2015 decision in *Obergefell v. Hodges* [held](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2014/14-556) in a 5-4 opinion that the due process clause of the 14th Amendment guarantees the right to marriage to both opposite-sex couples and same-sex couples. In the 2022 *Dobbs* decision overturning *Roe v. Wade*, Justice Clarence Thomas [wrote](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/24/thomas-constitutional-rights-00042256) a concurring opinion saying that the Court \"should reconsider\" its decision in Obergefell. In response, Congress passed the bipartisan [Respect for Marriage Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Respect_for_Marriage_Act) codifying many protections for same-sex marriage, which was signed by then-President Joe Biden on December 13, 2022.\n> \n> On January 20, 2025, Donald J. Trump was inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. In the months following, several states [introduced legislation](https://www.them.us/story/gay-marriage-rights-right-wing-overturn-kim-davis-state-legislatures) to roll back Obergefell, including four states offering \"covenant marriages\" between a man and woman. \n> \n> In July 2025, Kim Davis, a former Kentucky county clerk jailed in 2015 for refusing to issue a marriage license to a gay couple on religious grounds, [filed an appeal](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/12/trump-same-sex-marriage/85614479007/) with the Supreme Court to have the Court overturn \\$360,000 in emotional damages and attorneys' fees that a lower court held she must pay.\n> \n> Obergefell's original 5-4 opinion was voted against by three current Supreme Court Justices: Clarence Thomas, Chief Justice John Roberts, and Samuel Alito. Justice Neil Gorsuch, who joined the Court after Obergefell, [wrote a dissertation](https://time.com/4705941/neil-gorsuch-gay-rights-same-sex-marriage/) mentioning it being \"obvious\" that the US Constitution does not support same-sex marriage. Other conservatives who have joined the Court since Obergefell, Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, have refused to directly answer when asked about the decision. (See for example, [The Blade](https://www.washingtonblade.com/2018/09/12/kavanaughs-answers-leave-lgbt-legal-experts-unsatisfied/) and [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/barrett-dodges-questions-on-obergefell-case-same-sex-marriage/2020/10/14/9e3e6a51-2489-4f20-8555-1f8c52d32351_video.html).)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39142,\"question_id\":38485,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 41393, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-any-ai-achieve-94-on-gpqa-diamond-benchmark-leaderboard-by-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:00.447501Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T23:50:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-06T01:21:00.182468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:00.674573Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T18:58:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T23:50:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41108, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 85.00% on 2026-01-15 for the Metaculus question \"Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:20:00.447910Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T23:50:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T18:58:05Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-06T01:20:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776\n- Original question title: Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 85.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n> \n> Please note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n> \n> Additionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n> \n> As of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n> \n> | Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n> | ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n> | **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n> | **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n> \n> Acording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n> \n> > The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n> \n> > We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n> \n> > Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n> \n> An example of a question is:\n> \n> > *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n> \n> > *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n> \n> > *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> > *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> > *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> > *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40776,\"question_id\":40435,\"last_cp\":0.85}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-15 18:58:05 is higher than 85.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 85.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-15 18:58:05, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41393, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767662280.464258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.373 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767662280.464258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.373 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.627, 0.373 ], "means": [ 0.38526955797854034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776\n- Original question title: Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 85.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n> \n> Please note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n> \n> Additionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />\n\nOriginal background: \n> On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n> \n> As of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n> \n> | Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n> | ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n> | **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n> | **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n> | **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n> | **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n> \n> Acording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n> \n> > The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n> \n> > We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n> \n> > Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n> \n> An example of a question is:\n> \n> > *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n> \n> > *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n> \n> > *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> > *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> > *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> > *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40776,\"question_id\":40435,\"last_cp\":0.85}}`" }, { "id": 41391, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-us-government-enter-a-shutdown-before-february-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:53.463405Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T20:22:37Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T21:53:00.348633Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:53.714114Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:47:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:22:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41106, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 33.30% on 2026-01-16 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:53.463835Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:22:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T15:47:42Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:52:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919\n- Original question title: Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 33.30%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n> \n> As [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n> \n> > Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n> \n> > The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n> \n> > The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n> \n> [The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n> \n> The deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n> \n> [The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605,\"last_cp\":0.333}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-16 15:47:42 is higher than 33.30%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 33.30%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-16 15:47:42, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41391, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767649795.983846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767649795.983846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.445 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.555, 0.445 ], "means": [ 0.46106332200126926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919\n- Original question title: Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 33.30%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n> \n> For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n> \n> As [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n> \n> > Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n> \n> > The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n> \n> > The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n> \n> [The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n> \n> The deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n> \n> [The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605,\"last_cp\":0.333}}`" }, { "id": 41390, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-the-next-ceo-of-xtwitter-last-until-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:49.877817Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T20:12:46Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T21:43:00.241526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:50.238163Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T08:08:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:12:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41105, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 55.00% on 2026-01-17 for the Metaculus question \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:49.878214Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T20:12:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-17T08:08:12Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:42:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38886\n- Original question title: Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next CEO of X, after Linda Yaccarino's departure, continuously holds the position of CEO until January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If no person becomes CEO of X before 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * If the new CEO steps down before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**, even if they later return to this position.\n> * If X rebrands or changes ownership that will have no impact on this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n> \n> According to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n> \n> > She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n> \n> > Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n> \n> On July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38886,\"question_id\":38201,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38886) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-17 08:08:12 is higher than 55.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 55.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-17 08:08:12, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41390, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767649207.840395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767649207.840395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3889283465358649 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38886\n- Original question title: Will the next CEO of X/Twitter last until 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 55.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the next CEO of X, after Linda Yaccarino's departure, continuously holds the position of CEO until January 1, 2027.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * If no person becomes CEO of X before 2026, this question will be **annulled**.\n> * If the new CEO steps down before January 1, 2027, this question will resolve as **No**, even if they later return to this position.\n> * If X rebrands or changes ownership that will have no impact on this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> X/Twitter is a major social media platform that has undergone significant leadership and strategic changes since[ its acquisition by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in October 2022. After the purchase, Musk initially served as CEO but [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65574826) in May 2023 that Linda Yaccarino, formerly the chairman of global advertising and partnerships at NBCUniversal, would take over as CEO in June 2023. X [has experienced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter_under_Elon_Musk) ongoing executive turnover, high-profile resignations, and frequent shifts in business direction under Musk’s ownership, with Musk retaining significant operational control and public influence over key decisions.\n> \n> According to [industry insiders](https://www.ft.com/content/833c5b55-4a64-430d-9332-255f46883e71), Yaccarino was set up to fail:\n> \n> > She was tasked with bringing back advertising dollars to a platform whose politically polarising owner had told brands who did not spend with them to “go fuck themselves”.\n> \n> > Given Musk’s hands-on, round-the-clock approach to leading X, Yaccarino never had the kind of control that most CEOs enjoy.\n> \n> On July 9, 2025 Yaccarino [resigned as CEO](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/09/linda-yaccarino-x-elon-musk.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38886,\"question_id\":38201,\"last_cp\":0.55}}`" }, { "id": 41387, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-dem-house-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.374474Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T21:04:00.241832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.557458Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T17:00:47.484084Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41102, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.374867Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n> \n> If the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.\n\nOriginal background: \n> At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n> \n> On November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35760,\"question_id\":35205,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-14 13:30:06 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-14 13:30:06, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41387, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767645930.304284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767645930.304284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36252729857819915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n> \n> If the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.\n\nOriginal background: \n> At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n> \n> On November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35760,\"question_id\":35205,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41370, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "url_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "slug": "podium-sweep-at-2026-olympics", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-02T18:55:07.719000Z", "published_at": "2026-01-02T22:31:55Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:16:19.842722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-02T23:09:35.033829Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 122, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:16:20.035112Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:16:20.035112Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } }, "question": { "id": 41081, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "created_at": "2026-01-02T18:55:07.719479Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one podium sweep occurs at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.\n\nA podium sweep is defined as:\n\n* All three medal positions (gold, silver, bronze) in a single Olympic event being won by athletes representing the same country or designation.", "fine_print": "Podium sweeps achieved by athletes competing under a neutral or independent designation will count as a sweep for that designation if all three medalists share the same designation.\n\nMedal reallocations or disqualifications announced after the conclusion of the Games will not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "post_id": 41370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768374969.747357, "end_time": 1768389690.305, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768374969.747357, "end_time": 1768389690.305, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7714998875807836 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2009120920098494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4223696535668603, 0.0, 0.22567992891996577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397659998740916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009356668418570713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018602160257638698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007857345343876863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11661334446446864, 1.4568275507488506, 0.3147897403180202, 0.02552362291865424, 0.3744201591001436, 0.07300869289255495, 0.5462553693738248, 0.005805836553457768, 0.020175989650744686, 0.0, 0.5157884466982733, 1.1951163584730826, 1.483302039288138, 0.0014396715385694681, 0.1466546012161525, 0.0005513502689110807, 3.082158849343209, 0.15290912673905122, 0.562445427184936, 0.3738035076396406, 0.8562507016486411, 0.6295967622567715, 0.07941099381019567, 0.3741496491001437, 0.35526758415758297, 0.12410419092502141, 0.6263343114529379, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0948996807295548, 0.02016325144692848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8616625441318828, 1.0085371323308812, 0.9987278296159495 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps." }, { "id": 41356, "title": "Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?", "short_title": "US utility $5B+ capex for data centers in early 2026?", "url_title": "US utility $5B+ capex for data centers in early 2026?", "slug": "us-utility-5b-capex-for-data-centers-in-early-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-31T01:33:24.144324Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:07:35.061526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:12:26.634572Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", 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100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41056, "title": "Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-31T01:33:24.144793Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/business/energy-environment/senate-democrats-electricity-prices-data-centers.html) in December 2025:\n\n> After roughly 20 years of flat or minimal growth in U.S. electricity demand, power needs are rising and are expected to surge in the next several decades.\n\n Since the [AI boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom) accelerated with the 2022 launch of ChatGPT, there has been a great expansion in power-hungry data centers housing the hardware that runs AI:\n\n> The large, boxy data center buildings filled with computer servers consumed more than 4 percent of the nation’s electricity in 2023. Government [analysts estimate](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-new-report-evaluating-increase-electricity-demand-data-centers#:~:text=The%20report%20finds%20that%20data,total%20U.S.%20electricity%20by%202028.) that will increase to as much as 12 percent in just three years. That’s because computers that train A.I. systems [consume much more electricity](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/16/technology/ai-data-centers.html) than those used for popular internet services like Netflix or TikTok.\n\n> To meet that demand, energy companies have rushed to build more power plants and power lines.\n\nIn 2025, five-year plan capex increases of at least \\$5 billion, with data center electricity demand as the driver of the increased spending, were announced by the following electric utility companies: \n\n* February 12, 2025: Dominion Energy [announces](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4406911-dominion-energy-hikes-five-year-capex-plan-ahead-of-anticipated-datacenter-power-demand) an increase of almost \\$7 billion, due to data centers contracting 19 GW.\n* February 13, 2025: Duke Energy [raises](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-raises-five-capex-122118418.html) its capex plan by about \\$10 billion \"to accommodate rising demand from population growth in the U.S. Southeast and the expansion of data centers and advanced manufacturing, the company said.\"\n* July 30, 2025: AEP [says](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806289-american-electric-power-company-aep-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript) it will increase capex spending by \\$16 billion, driven by large commercial customers including data centers.\n* October 29, 2025: NiSource Enery in its earnings [release](https://www.nisource.com/news/article/nisource-announces-third-quarter-results): \"Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of \\$28.0 billion, inclusive of \\~\\$7.0 billion of capital investment related to data centers\"\n* Octomber 31, 2025: Xcel Energy [announces](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xcel-energy-rolls-60-billion-090000008.html) a \\$15 billion increase in its 5-year capex plan, according to the CEO, “Making sure that we can deliver a cleaner energy product as well as a highly reliable and highly affordable product is very strategic as we approach economic development with data centers.”\n* December 4, 2025: DTE Energy in its [Business Update](https://s24.q4cdn.com/970999156/files/doc_presentations/2025/12/DTE-Business-Update-12-5-25-FINAL.pdf) page 4 says: \"Data center development and investments in reliability and cleaner generation drive a \\$6.5 billion increase to our 5-year capital investment plan\"\n\n ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before March 13, 2026 ET, an electric utility company in the United States announces:\n\n* a planned future increase in capital expenditures of at least \\$5 billion relative to its previous plan or guidance \n* over a period of 5 years or fewer\n* with demand from data center customers cited as a factor in the increased spending. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, an \"electric utility company\" is any company whose primary business is providing electricity [transmission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission) or [distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_distribution) services; note that it can also own or operate electric [generation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation) assets. \n\nAn example of an announcement that would count is American Electric Power's CEO William Fehrman saying in the company's Q2 2025 earnings [conference call ](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806289-american-electric-power-company-aep-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript)on July 30, 2025 that AEP would have \\$16 billion in increased spending in its 5-year capital plan \"driven primarily by data centers\" among other factors. (See also [Utility Dive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/aep-data-centers-texas-ercot-crypto-pjm/756491/).)", "short_title": "US utility $5B+ capex for data centers in early 2026?", "post_id": 41356, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 621, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/business/energy-environment/senate-democrats-electricity-prices-data-centers.html) in December 2025:\n\n> After roughly 20 years of flat or minimal growth in U.S. electricity demand, power needs are rising and are expected to surge in the next several decades.\n\n Since the [AI boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom) accelerated with the 2022 launch of ChatGPT, there has been a great expansion in power-hungry data centers housing the hardware that runs AI:\n\n> The large, boxy data center buildings filled with computer servers consumed more than 4 percent of the nation’s electricity in 2023. Government [analysts estimate](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-new-report-evaluating-increase-electricity-demand-data-centers#:~:text=The%20report%20finds%20that%20data,total%20U.S.%20electricity%20by%202028.) that will increase to as much as 12 percent in just three years. That’s because computers that train A.I. systems [consume much more electricity](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/16/technology/ai-data-centers.html) than those used for popular internet services like Netflix or TikTok.\n\n> To meet that demand, energy companies have rushed to build more power plants and power lines.\n\nIn 2025, five-year plan capex increases of at least \\$5 billion, with data center electricity demand as the driver of the increased spending, were announced by the following electric utility companies: \n\n* February 12, 2025: Dominion Energy [announces](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4406911-dominion-energy-hikes-five-year-capex-plan-ahead-of-anticipated-datacenter-power-demand) an increase of almost \\$7 billion, due to data centers contracting 19 GW.\n* February 13, 2025: Duke Energy [raises](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-raises-five-capex-122118418.html) its capex plan by about \\$10 billion \"to accommodate rising demand from population growth in the U.S. Southeast and the expansion of data centers and advanced manufacturing, the company said.\"\n* July 30, 2025: AEP [says](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806289-american-electric-power-company-aep-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript) it will increase capex spending by \\$16 billion, driven by large commercial customers including data centers.\n* October 29, 2025: NiSource Enery in its earnings [release](https://www.nisource.com/news/article/nisource-announces-third-quarter-results): \"Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of \\$28.0 billion, inclusive of \\~\\$7.0 billion of capital investment related to data centers\"\n* Octomber 31, 2025: Xcel Energy [announces](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xcel-energy-rolls-60-billion-090000008.html) a \\$15 billion increase in its 5-year capex plan, according to the CEO, “Making sure that we can deliver a cleaner energy product as well as a highly reliable and highly affordable product is very strategic as we approach economic development with data centers.”\n* December 4, 2025: DTE Energy in its [Business Update](https://s24.q4cdn.com/970999156/files/doc_presentations/2025/12/DTE-Business-Update-12-5-25-FINAL.pdf) page 4 says: \"Data center development and investments in reliability and cleaner generation drive a \\$6.5 billion increase to our 5-year capital investment plan\"\n\n " }, { "id": 41343, "title": "Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "High-end GPUs to be exported to China by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "High-end GPUs to be exported to China by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "high-end-gpus-to-be-exported-to-china-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-29T02:09:12.670959Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:18:07.573225Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:15:34.792328Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 521, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41045, "title": "Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-29T02:09:12.671397Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US Department of Commerce enacted [export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China) to limit the People's Republic of China's access to advanced computing chips and semiconductors, citing national security and foreign policy concerns. Initially, these rules were not aimed at restricting China's capacity to train large language models. However, they directly restricted the class of high-end GPUs that subsequently became central to generative AI, leading to an eventual shift in the controls' focus to encompass such issues.\n\nIn response to these restrictions, NVIDIA repeatedly designed China-specific variants of its chips that complied with the export controls. These initially included the A800 and H800 chips, which were later banned [after an update to the export regulations](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-may-be-forced-shift-out-some-countries-after-new-us-export-curbs-2023-10-17/), and then the H20, which was [only briefly restricted in early 2025](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-licenses-nvidia-export-chips-china-official-says-2025-08-08/). In late 2025, [reporting indicated](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-block-nvidias-sale-scaled-back-ai-chips-china-information-says-2025-11-07/) the US planned to block a new, highly capable China-specific chip referred to as B30A. Subsequently, however, President Trump announced, in a policy shift, that the US would permit [exports of the powerful H200 chip to China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-aims-begin-h200-chip-shipments-china-by-mid-february-sources-say-2025-12-22/), subject to a 25% fee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before March 14, 2026 ET, the US government publicly states that it will permit any Nvidia GPU that is better than the H200 to be exported to mainland China.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if such GPUs are directly exported to mainland China, without [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting that the export violated US export controls or that the US government is taking enforcement action relating to those exports, before March 14, 2026 ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"better than H200\" is defined as any GPU with both:\n\n* a peak FP8 Tensor Core throughput (including sparsity) higher than 4 petaFLOPS\n\nand\n\n* an HBM bandwidth of at least 4.8 TB/s.", "fine_print": "* \"The US government publicly states\" includes a statement by the sitting US President on a personally controlled account (e.g., Truth Social) that is treated as credible, even if no agency issues a formal notice.\n* Statements that indicate that exports will be permitted in the future have to include a specific date within 2026. Vague time periods (e.g. \"in a few months\") do not qualify.\n* Statements that do not clearly indicate exports will be permitted (e.g., “considering,” “discussing,” “investigating”) do not count.", "short_title": "High-end GPUs to be exported to China by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41343, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768375077.366817, "end_time": 1768610352.299, "forecaster_count": 520, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768375077.366817, "end_time": 1768610352.299, "forecaster_count": 520, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.10091656844636969 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.389943613804828, 2.5022591476275893, 2.182164748984493, 5.206652506539297, 2.277438618736873, 4.978584043720498, 1.4240599812603318, 2.429573801193593, 1.1855358409008279, 1.0121988151690327, 1.0202377257378654, 0.8963221563220548, 0.6290673515304734, 0.024665594411388124, 0.288358938649199, 0.34327516702388206, 0.573800518558383, 0.0008043420922761349, 0.5321394428296136, 0.8305711870531955, 1.3060233512661, 0.12966624674625993, 0.2829625941129431, 0.42878683331609124, 0.04149930134611041, 0.10894484667312987, 3.355400587906918e-05, 1.8697266632551823e-05, 7.205475238512347e-07, 0.0, 0.01409495031188093, 0.0, 0.024759815261582625, 0.00013011367826392325, 0.0, 1.4677727947854516e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2094795778696845e-05, 0.0, 0.005531241406884843, 0.00011671430847874952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17274421197015263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.776302958516848e-05, 0.24447882985516298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9259432033533643, 0.0, 0.00013066502475344687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013071471267915911, 1.4040783502533514e-06, 2.5086815467680806e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8573064710992605, 0.0, 0.0, 5.736494068912832e-06, 0.0, 0.00155952519907532, 2.3736327422619858e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1927851417693722e-06, 0.0005495284774303345, 0.020059250214477662, 0.0, 0.0, 2.365193549666297e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010441615365062263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015565949598439442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8023709670477994 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 830, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US Department of Commerce enacted [export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China) to limit the People's Republic of China's access to advanced computing chips and semiconductors, citing national security and foreign policy concerns. Initially, these rules were not aimed at restricting China's capacity to train large language models. However, they directly restricted the class of high-end GPUs that subsequently became central to generative AI, leading to an eventual shift in the controls' focus to encompass such issues.\n\nIn response to these restrictions, NVIDIA repeatedly designed China-specific variants of its chips that complied with the export controls. These initially included the A800 and H800 chips, which were later banned [after an update to the export regulations](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-may-be-forced-shift-out-some-countries-after-new-us-export-curbs-2023-10-17/), and then the H20, which was [only briefly restricted in early 2025](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-licenses-nvidia-export-chips-china-official-says-2025-08-08/). In late 2025, [reporting indicated](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-block-nvidias-sale-scaled-back-ai-chips-china-information-says-2025-11-07/) the US planned to block a new, highly capable China-specific chip referred to as B30A. Subsequently, however, President Trump announced, in a policy shift, that the US would permit [exports of the powerful H200 chip to China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-aims-begin-h200-chip-shipments-china-by-mid-february-sources-say-2025-12-22/), subject to a 25% fee." }, { "id": 41340, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "short_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "url_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "slug": "beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2028", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-28T20:27:37.183418Z", "published_at": "2026-01-01T07:08:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-09T20:26:22.803689Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-01T07:09:11.989973Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-02T07:08:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32926, "name": "2026-2027 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2027_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41040, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-12-28T20:27:37.183834Z", "open_time": "2026-01-02T07:08:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T07:08:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T07:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. \n\n> [As of December 2024](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001655210/000165521025000034/bynd-20241231.htm), Beyond Meat branded products were available at approximately 129,000 retail and foodservice outlets in more than 65 countries worldwide, across mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser, club store and natural retailer channels, and various food-away-from-home channels, including restaurants, foodservice outlets and schools.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of \\$14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has significantly declined to less than \\$1 per share, leaving the company with a market capitalization of \\$400 million [in December 2025](https://companiesmarketcap.com/beyond-meat/marketcap/).\n\nAs reported by [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/retail/bankruptcy-watch-beyond-meat-shares-new-financial-woes) (a US financial news website):\n\n> Beyond Meat has been struggling as it faces increased competition and dwindling demand for its plant-based meat products.\n\n> “The company’s overall Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 1.03, labeled as WEAK, highlighting the significant challenges ahead. The company, known for its innovative approach to creating meat substitutes from plant-based ingredients, has recently faced a series of setbacks that have prompted analysts to adopt a cautious stance on its stock,” according to [InvestingPro analysis](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/beyond-meats-swot-analysis-plantbased-pioneer-faces-uphill-battle-93CH-4189732).\n\nHowever,\n\n> Beyond Meat has fully denied that it’s at risk of running out of cash. “Your story suggesting that Beyond Meat filed for bankruptcy is unequivocally false. We have not filed nor are we planning to file for bankruptcy,” the company shared in an email to TheStreet.\n\nNevertheless the long-term future of Beyond Meat, Inc. remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Beyond Meat, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of [the United States Bankruptcy Code](https://www.uscourts.gov/court-programs/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics), before January 1, 2028. ", "fine_print": "Only petitions filed by Beyond Meat, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Beyond Meat, Inc.'s business, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or split-off companies will not qualify.\n\nThis question resolves based upon the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.", "short_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "post_id": 41340, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767990371.891601, "end_time": 1775121198.929, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767990371.891601, "end_time": 1775121198.929, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6439488795660445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10777483786483952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.033992411823393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.39738560315786137, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.693062814530223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8412494874797594 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. \n\n> [As of December 2024](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001655210/000165521025000034/bynd-20241231.htm), Beyond Meat branded products were available at approximately 129,000 retail and foodservice outlets in more than 65 countries worldwide, across mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser, club store and natural retailer channels, and various food-away-from-home channels, including restaurants, foodservice outlets and schools.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of \\$14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has significantly declined to less than \\$1 per share, leaving the company with a market capitalization of \\$400 million [in December 2025](https://companiesmarketcap.com/beyond-meat/marketcap/).\n\nAs reported by [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/retail/bankruptcy-watch-beyond-meat-shares-new-financial-woes) (a US financial news website):\n\n> Beyond Meat has been struggling as it faces increased competition and dwindling demand for its plant-based meat products.\n\n> “The company’s overall Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 1.03, labeled as WEAK, highlighting the significant challenges ahead. The company, known for its innovative approach to creating meat substitutes from plant-based ingredients, has recently faced a series of setbacks that have prompted analysts to adopt a cautious stance on its stock,” according to [InvestingPro analysis](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/beyond-meats-swot-analysis-plantbased-pioneer-faces-uphill-battle-93CH-4189732).\n\nHowever,\n\n> Beyond Meat has fully denied that it’s at risk of running out of cash. “Your story suggesting that Beyond Meat filed for bankruptcy is unequivocally false. We have not filed nor are we planning to file for bankruptcy,” the company shared in an email to TheStreet.\n\nNevertheless the long-term future of Beyond Meat, Inc. remains uncertain." }, { "id": 41337, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "url_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "slug": "us-job-gain-from-dec-2025-to-feb-2026-less-than-100k", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-27T20:03:35.163131Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T05:25:32.362800Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:18:23.056309Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41037, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-27T20:03:35.163922Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for February 2026, minus the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for December 2025, according to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS), is less than 100 thousand.\n\nThis question will resolve using the numbers from the Employment Situation for February 2026. Therefore, it will most probably use the initial estimates for February and the revised estimates for December 2025.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "post_id": 41337, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS)." }, { "id": 41336, "title": "Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "OpenAI API prices fall before Mar 14, 2026?", "url_title": "OpenAI API prices fall before Mar 14, 2026?", "slug": "openai-api-prices-fall-before-mar-14-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-27T13:19:41.401505Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:20:17.652668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:16:12.169920Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 465, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41036, "title": "Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-27T13:19:41.402241Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "OpenAI has a history of significantly reducing API prices along with new model releases, while maintaining roughly the same capabilities as the predecessor models. [GPT-4](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4) had an input price of \\$30 per 1 million tokens and an output price of \\$60. This was followed by [GPT-4-Turbo](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4-turbo), with input/output prices of \\$10/\\$30 per 1M tokens, which were further reduced in [GPT-4o](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4o) to \\$2.5/\\$10. [GPT-5](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5), released in August 2025, was even cheaper at \\$1.25/\\$10. However, no models released since then have shown a further drop in prices (excluding mini and nano versions), with [GPT-5.1](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.1) being similarly priced to GPT-5 and [GPT-5.2](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.2) being more expensive at \\$1.75/\\$14.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026 ET, the standard on-demand OpenAI [API Pricing](https://platform.openai.com/docs/pricing?latest-pricing=standard) lists *any* regular-sized GPT-5 or later model as having either:\n\n* an input price below \\$1.25 per 1 million tokens, or\n* an output price below \\$10 per 1 million tokens\n\nor *the latest* regular-sized GPT model as having either\n\n* an input price below \\$1.75 per 1 million tokens, or\n* an output price below \\$14 per 1 million tokens", "fine_print": "* A regular-sized GPT model is defined as any model whose official model name/ID contains “gpt-5” or \"gpt-6\" and does not contain “mini”, “nano”, or another label that clearly indicates that its size is significantly smaller than the regular-sized model (e.g., \"small\", \"lite\"). In case of an ambiguous label, reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) will be used to determine if the model is significantly smaller.\n* The latest regular-sized GPT model is the regular-sized GPT-5 or -6 model that has been most recently released and is listed on the API page. It includes all versions of that model. For example, as of January 9, the latest model is gpt-5.2 and therefore all of the following models listed [on this page](https://platform.openai.com/docs/pricing?latest-pricing=standard) would count: gpt-5.2, gpt-5.2-chat-latest, gpt-5.2-pro, as would gpt-5.2-codex were that to be released.\n* Standard on-demand pricing excludes Batch pricing, Flex pricing, cached-input discounts, promotional credits, fine-tuned model pricing, and any third-party/reseller pricing.", "short_title": "OpenAI API prices fall before Mar 14, 2026?", "post_id": 41336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 694, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has a history of significantly reducing API prices along with new model releases, while maintaining roughly the same capabilities as the predecessor models. [GPT-4](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4) had an input price of \\$30 per 1 million tokens and an output price of \\$60. This was followed by [GPT-4-Turbo](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4-turbo), with input/output prices of \\$10/\\$30 per 1M tokens, which were further reduced in [GPT-4o](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4o) to \\$2.5/\\$10. [GPT-5](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5), released in August 2025, was even cheaper at \\$1.25/\\$10. However, no models released since then have shown a further drop in prices (excluding mini and nano versions), with [GPT-5.1](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.1) being similarly priced to GPT-5 and [GPT-5.2](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.2) being more expensive at \\$1.75/\\$14." }, { "id": 41332, "title": "Will the US impose any new import restriction upon China before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "new-us-import-restrictions-on-china-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-26T23:12:27.431234Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:19:43.797002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:11:41.856440Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 542, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41030, "title": "Will the US impose any new import restriction upon China before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-26T23:12:27.431705Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since 2018, the United States and China have engaged in a significant [trade war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war). Following the imposition of tariffs by the United States, both China and the US repeatedly increased restrictions through 2019, before a pause in increases during early 2020. Throughout 2021-2024, the Biden Administration kept in place tariffs from the initial trade war, and even imposed additional restrictions on items such as electric vehicles.\n\nIn 2025, following Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the United States dramatically ramped up import restrictions on China. On February 1, the US [imposed 10% tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-01/trump-hits-china-canada-mexico-with-tariffs-to-open-trade-war) on China, with escalation going back and forth through March.\n\nOn April 2, 2025, the United States announced sweeping \"[Liberation Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs)\" tariffs, targeting numerous countries around the world, with China's rate increasing by 34 percentage points, to 54%. Following this action, China retaliated with a 34% tariff rate on the United States, with tit-for-tat escalation [resulting in a 145% tariff on China](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/china-trump-tariffs-live-updates.html), before the US suspended its tariffs and began negotiations. \n\nFollowing additional changes such as the removal of the [de minimis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_minimis) exemption, China and the United States reached a [trade deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-reach-deal-slash-tariffs-officials-say-2025-05-12) in which tariff rates would largely be returned to pre-liberation day levels.\n\nDuring October 2025, tensions briefly flared following additional US sanctions imposed on Chinese companies, with China responding with export restrictions on rare earths, and the US raising tariffs once again. On October 30, 2025, the United States and China came to an agreement [largely reversing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/us-to-suspend-china-sanctions-expansion-for-a-year-beijing-says) the actions taken in October.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026 ET, the United States announces any new tariff, import quota, or import ban upon China, or harshens existing restrictions, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nTo qualify for this question, the order or law which imposes the restriction must specifically mention China; broad policy changes that affect China incidentally will not qualify.", "fine_print": "\"Harshens existing restrictions\" is defined as an increase in tariff rates, a tighter quota, an expansion of the existing bans, or the removal/curtailment of an existing exemption, exclusion, or waiver.\n\nExport restrictions will have no impact on this question.", "short_title": "New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768375173.026445, "end_time": 1768609691.165, "forecaster_count": 542, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768375173.026445, "end_time": 1768609691.165, "forecaster_count": 542, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.367115118980524 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3570889181146258, 0.0, 0.00022155832024307816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6069444171839993, 0.11294401735081197, 0.27157924726606736, 0.07188352791167094, 1.980815580841389e-06, 1.8608583957199294, 0.9805607445959433, 0.2281684726388063, 0.478244497083482, 0.2139970846157885, 2.0877761543366464, 7.041134380684209e-05, 0.0014334187940617839, 0.2051328800168973, 0.9823758843762173, 2.850825270336156, 8.629626526197855e-06, 1.173379254855127, 0.5152100259926912, 0.9822999993496883, 4.494753479831559, 0.14984151726434441, 0.5039404809054713, 0.2889828325907527, 0.001984930566766601, 2.092131382111906, 0.0007058913963063748, 0.2750858224157554, 0.8804533052076144, 0.012574111682476893, 1.4755448662636514, 1.7042291892931858, 9.690861512886684e-07, 0.13117653426225948, 0.3846464826179515, 1.1220922709768177, 0.08801586055628116, 2.0391280861358774, 0.10456263450700976, 0.24798489658463116, 0.5701900624118643, 0.5682123523008339, 0.1403383726306507, 0.04541980353883411, 0.004948391533004838, 3.8462891501906378, 0.0, 0.04004673578521117, 0.08043113217661856, 0.0, 1.1557979195602324, 0.09892691066701922, 0.00047308954562567897, 0.0, 0.2526346883520235, 2.9472303247516027, 0.35677809783898684, 0.13051431700678812, 0.0, 4.309356403570184e-05, 0.9947210088274909, 0.07857941920810677, 1.0016918919654871, 0.3628282810602744, 0.03153472838453528, 0.47400582675683756, 0.000175393110600466, 0.03210894683733756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2895787457911272, 0.007079234618628396, 3.510943435744316e-05, 0.0002449971680294393, 5.938604109229304e-07, 0.20571693650899717, 0.018450905397187214, 0.16365693530226574, 0.005171568086233768, 0.10915101240476947, 0.03200434733852967, 0.019361686462823383, 1.288399414980782e-07, 0.0002144133275271354, 0.0, 0.5556407347654692, 0.08239061346467356, 1.572985338293347e-07, 6.0573434346259644e-09, 0.0, 1.311012196637684e-09, 0.0, 0.010897406930296647, 1.7067945928438644e-06, 0.3712191178386561 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 886, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2018, the United States and China have engaged in a significant [trade war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war). Following the imposition of tariffs by the United States, both China and the US repeatedly increased restrictions through 2019, before a pause in increases during early 2020. Throughout 2021-2024, the Biden Administration kept in place tariffs from the initial trade war, and even imposed additional restrictions on items such as electric vehicles.\n\nIn 2025, following Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the United States dramatically ramped up import restrictions on China. On February 1, the US [imposed 10% tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-01/trump-hits-china-canada-mexico-with-tariffs-to-open-trade-war) on China, with escalation going back and forth through March.\n\nOn April 2, 2025, the United States announced sweeping \"[Liberation Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs)\" tariffs, targeting numerous countries around the world, with China's rate increasing by 34 percentage points, to 54%. Following this action, China retaliated with a 34% tariff rate on the United States, with tit-for-tat escalation [resulting in a 145% tariff on China](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/china-trump-tariffs-live-updates.html), before the US suspended its tariffs and began negotiations. \n\nFollowing additional changes such as the removal of the [de minimis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_minimis) exemption, China and the United States reached a [trade deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-reach-deal-slash-tariffs-officials-say-2025-05-12) in which tariff rates would largely be returned to pre-liberation day levels.\n\nDuring October 2025, tensions briefly flared following additional US sanctions imposed on Chinese companies, with China responding with export restrictions on rare earths, and the US raising tariffs once again. On October 30, 2025, the United States and China came to an agreement [largely reversing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/us-to-suspend-china-sanctions-expansion-for-a-year-beijing-says) the actions taken in October." }, { "id": 41316, "title": "Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "more-us-sanctions-on-russia-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-24T00:38:04.010910Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:17:57.456314Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:13:24.678192Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 608, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41020, "title": "Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-24T00:38:04.011558Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The United States has repeatedly imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia in recent years. In April 2013, under the Barack Obama administration, the United States imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials under the [Magnitsky Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act), which had been signed into law the previous year. Then, in March 2014, the United States and the European Union [imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/europe/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-russian-officials.html?hp&_r=0) in connection with the Russian occupation of Crimea. (The US ultimately imposed [multiple rounds of sanctions](https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions) related to that conflict.) And in December 2016, President Obama imposed [additional sanctions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-punishes-russia-over-election-hacking-with-sanctions-1483039178) on Russia in connection with the country's alleged interference in the 2016 US elections.\n\nIn 2017, Donald Trump came to power, taking a notably more conciliatory approach toward Russia than his predecessor had. Nevertheless, in July 2017, Congress passed the [Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countering_America%27s_Adversaries_Through_Sanctions_Act), which imposed new sanctions on Russia for its activities relating to Ukraine, Syria, and the 2016 election. Though he criticized the legislation as flawed, President Trump signed it into law. The Trump administration subsequently imposed [numerous other sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war#2018) relating to Russia.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering [\"the most severe economic sanctions ever levied on Russia.\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/russia-economic-sanctions-ukraine-60-minutes-2022-03-20/) And as that conflict drags on, sanctions remain a key component of US foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. On December 17, 2025, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-new-russia-sanctions-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal-bloomberg-news-2025-12-17/) that the Trump administration was preparing an additional round of sanctions on Russia to pressure it to negotiate a peace with Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before March 14, 2026 ET, the US government announces via binding legal action a new or expanded sanctions-related restriction on Russian persons or entities and the official announcement explicitly states it is related to the Ukraine war.\n\nSanctions include, but are not limited to asset freezes, transaction bans, trade restrictions, Entity List-type actions, or visa/entry restrictions, and they might be issued by OFAC, the Department of State, the Department of Commerce, the White House, or Congress.\n\nActions not explicitly linked to the war in the official announcements or press materials do not count, even if plausibly war-motivated.", "fine_print": "An example of an action that would count is OFAC's October 22, 2025 [issuance](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20251022) of new sanctions targeting Russian oil companies (including Lukoil and Rosneft), with the accompanying [press release](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0290) stating that it is doing so \"as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.\"", "short_title": "More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 887, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States has repeatedly imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia in recent years. In April 2013, under the Barack Obama administration, the United States imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials under the [Magnitsky Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act), which had been signed into law the previous year. Then, in March 2014, the United States and the European Union [imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/europe/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-russian-officials.html?hp&_r=0) in connection with the Russian occupation of Crimea. (The US ultimately imposed [multiple rounds of sanctions](https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions) related to that conflict.) And in December 2016, President Obama imposed [additional sanctions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-punishes-russia-over-election-hacking-with-sanctions-1483039178) on Russia in connection with the country's alleged interference in the 2016 US elections.\n\nIn 2017, Donald Trump came to power, taking a notably more conciliatory approach toward Russia than his predecessor had. Nevertheless, in July 2017, Congress passed the [Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countering_America%27s_Adversaries_Through_Sanctions_Act), which imposed new sanctions on Russia for its activities relating to Ukraine, Syria, and the 2016 election. Though he criticized the legislation as flawed, President Trump signed it into law. The Trump administration subsequently imposed [numerous other sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war#2018) relating to Russia.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering [\"the most severe economic sanctions ever levied on Russia.\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/russia-economic-sanctions-ukraine-60-minutes-2022-03-20/) And as that conflict drags on, sanctions remain a key component of US foreign policy vis-à-vis Russia. On December 17, 2025, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-new-russia-sanctions-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal-bloomberg-news-2025-12-17/) that the Trump administration was preparing an additional round of sanctions on Russia to pressure it to negotiate a peace with Ukraine." }, { "id": 41310, "title": "Will the X algorithm be run by Grok before March 12, 2026?", "short_title": "Will X be powered by Grok before Mar 12, 2026?", "url_title": "Will X be powered by Grok before Mar 12, 2026?", "slug": "will-x-be-powered-by-grok-before-mar-12-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-23T02:34:08.515519Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:13:48.078236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:14:06.474748Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 725, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41013, "title": "Will the X algorithm be run by Grok before March 12, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-23T02:34:08.515969Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T16:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-12T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[X (the social network formerly known as Twitter)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter) is one of the most popular social-media sites on the Internet. Founded in 2006, it went public (as Twitter, Inc.) in 2013, before being [purchased by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in 2022, for \\$44 billion.\n\nIn 2023, Musk (a co-founder of OpenAI who had since left the organization) created his own artificial-intelligence company, [xAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XAI_\\(company\\)). xAI released the initial version of its generative AI chatbot, [Grok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_\\(chatbot\\)), in November 2023. Subsequent versions of Grok would be increasingly integrated with the X network, with users able to interact with Grok directly via tweets.\n\nIn March 2025, xAI took over X, purchasing its parent company, X Corp., for \\$33 billion. And on October 17, 2025, Musk [posted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979217645854511402) that X's recommendation algorithm was [going to be handed over to Grok](https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/x-formerly-twitter-switching-to-fully-ai-powered-grok-algorithm/803174/), which \"will literally read every post and watch every video (100M+ per day) to match users with content they’re most likely to find interesting.\" Musk suggested that this process would be complete in 4-6 weeks (which would be approximately 4 months according to [Elon Time](https://elontime.io/?time=5\\&unit=weeks)).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 12, 2026 ET, X, xAI, or Elon Musk announce that the entire personalized selection and ordering of posts shown to each user in the X *For you* timeline or another personalized feed is determined exclusively by Grok, and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) do not contradict this within 3 days of the announcement.\n\nIn addition to Grok, X may use the timestamp of a post and various hard filters (e.g., based on policy or legal enforcement, safety, spam, deduplication, geo or language availability constraints, or explicit user content settings) to determine the final selection and ordering. However, no learned model or heuristic that uses user behavior or inferred interests may be used besides Grok.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve as **Yes** if the announcement mentions a phased rollout to the general user base, but not if it mentions only a beta, pilot, or experiment limited to a small number of users.\n* An announcement counts only if it is posted on an official X or xAI channel or if it is stated on the record by Elon Musk or an executive officer of X or xAI (CEO, CTO, Head of Engineering or equivalent).", "short_title": "Will X be powered by Grok before Mar 12, 2026?", "post_id": 41310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768374817.644407, "end_time": 1768434996.779, "forecaster_count": 720, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.034 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768374817.644407, "end_time": 1768434996.779, "forecaster_count": 720, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.034 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.966, 0.034 ], "means": [ 0.12451330780616522 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.849173681068887, 3.4888358979536847, 6.6016691953747095, 5.8848613041995135, 4.290825740419379, 4.600559778280022, 1.3782426848122384, 1.0579296803967533, 0.334094137295855, 1.1853858460263216, 2.041706807650761, 0.001236995656075924, 0.5285164857417871, 0.0027591264134241593, 1.0001966446611148, 0.10773798629101806, 0.013783421590441207, 0.0049845263699851644, 0.022144553174755603, 0.0576331063464601, 0.748787124734233, 0.05189088744062324, 0.11512095283293558, 1.7974852143424496e-05, 1.8001410338198447e-08, 0.5207038408749018, 1.546007632461653e-10, 0.00047017580532470403, 0.33824231180351505, 0.0, 0.23095365313157507, 0.0, 8.22701957949074e-06, 0.00024111120153158015, 0.0, 0.0023156000142515454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9431298232206378, 0.0, 0.0001808660431788626, 0.01021170907337744, 0.0, 3.2301618277282813e-05, 0.03550309223595576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.392241637977225e-07, 0.018180761417287243, 0.0, 0.00032950204167103415, 0.0, 0.010922808800507637, 0.0026001069188219743, 0.006342724628616576, 0.0, 4.4938669906700725e-05, 1.0027149950775596, 0.002419574251767251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04526785520323079, 8.085131211654563e-06, 8.419698092942163e-07, 0.0, 1.4334568062946333, 0.0, 1.0011131244745308, 0.4744993213156192, 0.0, 9.84463460508385e-05, 0.19138673529014755, 0.28034834127179253, 0.00040707295435432893, 0.005914896285909346, 0.0, 0.0007014016611662468, 1.3811299925844105e-06, 0.09866002745535349, 1.1595829471587562e-07, 0.2838265335171187, 0.003146362597564334, 0.02480879192634121, 0.0, 0.012771153574794488, 0.4518602081520094, 0.0, 0.0012515480543986836, 0.0, 0.025743959099189848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3382679464880292 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1331, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[X (the social network formerly known as Twitter)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter) is one of the most popular social-media sites on the Internet. Founded in 2006, it went public (as Twitter, Inc.) in 2013, before being [purchased by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in 2022, for \\$44 billion.\n\nIn 2023, Musk (a co-founder of OpenAI who had since left the organization) created his own artificial-intelligence company, [xAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XAI_\\(company\\)). xAI released the initial version of its generative AI chatbot, [Grok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_\\(chatbot\\)), in November 2023. Subsequent versions of Grok would be increasingly integrated with the X network, with users able to interact with Grok directly via tweets.\n\nIn March 2025, xAI took over X, purchasing its parent company, X Corp., for \\$33 billion. And on October 17, 2025, Musk [posted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979217645854511402) that X's recommendation algorithm was [going to be handed over to Grok](https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/x-formerly-twitter-switching-to-fully-ai-powered-grok-algorithm/803174/), which \"will literally read every post and watch every video (100M+ per day) to match users with content they’re most likely to find interesting.\" Musk suggested that this process would be complete in 4-6 weeks (which would be approximately 4 months according to [Elon Time](https://elontime.io/?time=5\\&unit=weeks))." }, { "id": 41302, "title": "Will layoffs.fyi report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?", "short_title": "≥100 AI layoffs between Jan 12 & Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "≥100 AI layoffs between Jan 12 & Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "100-ai-layoffs-between-jan-12-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T19:48:33.115518Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:20:30.057522Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:16:42.053738Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 511, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-14T07:21:54.099907Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41005, "title": "Will layoffs.fyi report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T19:48:33.115917Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Many are excited about the possibilities of this artificial intelligence, which has led to [record levels of investment](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/AI-INVESTMENT/gkvlqbgxkpb/). At the same time, this investment has led to concerns about an [\"AI bubble.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble) Bubble predictors point to the [high concentration](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts) of AI-related companies in the stock market's recent returns, as well as the outsize role of AI-related spending in the U.S. GDP. If AI companies fail to live up to the hype, the economic consequences could be huge.\n\nWhile many workers are concerned about the risk that AI will [replace them](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r9280gvelo), people who work on AI may themselves find their jobs at risk if the AI bubble bursts. Indeed, even as valuations continue to rise, there have already been over 800 layoffs in the AI industry in 2025, according to tech-industry tracker [layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi). Most of these layoffs were connected to [xAI's termination](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-xai-layoffs-data-annotators-2025-9) of around 500 people during September.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there 100 or more people that were laid offs in the AI industry between January 12 and March 13, 2026 ET, inclusive of both dates, according to [layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi).", "fine_print": "Note that layoffs.fyi tracks layoffs in several industries. The spreadsheet on the [main page](https://layoffs.fyi) can be filtered by industry, and this question will resolve according to the number of layoffs attributed to the AI industry. (See detailed instructions below.)\n\nThis question will resolve based on the number of qualifying layoffs displayed on the site when checked by Metaculus on or after March 14, 2026. Additional layoffs retroactively added to the website will not cause this question to re-resolve.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1\\. At the [resolution source](https://airtable.com/app1PaujS9zxVGUZ4/shroKsHx3SdYYOzeh/tblleV7Pnb6AcPCYL?viewControls=on) at the top toolbar, click the *Filter* button (funnel icon). \n2\\. Click *+Add Condition* and set *Industry* to *AI*.\n2\\. Sort *Date* by latest to earliest.", "short_title": "≥100 AI layoffs between Jan 12 & Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 793, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many are excited about the possibilities of this artificial intelligence, which has led to [record levels of investment](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/AI-INVESTMENT/gkvlqbgxkpb/). At the same time, this investment has led to concerns about an [\"AI bubble.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble) Bubble predictors point to the [high concentration](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts) of AI-related companies in the stock market's recent returns, as well as the outsize role of AI-related spending in the U.S. GDP. If AI companies fail to live up to the hype, the economic consequences could be huge.\n\nWhile many workers are concerned about the risk that AI will [replace them](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r9280gvelo), people who work on AI may themselves find their jobs at risk if the AI bubble bursts. Indeed, even as valuations continue to rise, there have already been over 800 layoffs in the AI industry in 2025, according to tech-industry tracker [layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi). Most of these layoffs were connected to [xAI's termination](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-xai-layoffs-data-annotators-2025-9) of around 500 people during September." } ] }
