Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6772, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 41903, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-russia-and-ukraine-sign-a-ceasefire-agreement-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:28.971526Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T13:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T15:00:00.131774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:37.470693Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-01T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41641, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:28.972025Z", "open_time": "2026-02-01T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "As of early January 2026, diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine have intensified, spearheaded by the U.S. administration. A potential peace settlement framework is under discussion, following high-level meetings in Paris involving U.S. envoys and Ukrainian officials. Key components involve security guarantees and addressing territorial disputes, though a planned summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest may be uncertain. Despite progress on a bilateral security agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine, the Kremlin remains opposed to key elements, especially the deployment of European peacekeepers and any compromise on Ukraine's future alignment.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"8fd79ffad6baa440\",\"sheet_id\":93}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect before May 1, 2026. In order to count, a ceasefire must be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.", "fine_print": "A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by Russia and Ukraine and applies to all kinetic fighting against the other by both sides.", "short_title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign a ceasefire agreement before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41903, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769957408.300985, "end_time": 1772376606.95, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17430195158068962 ], "centers": [ 0.215 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769957408.300985, "end_time": 1772376606.95, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17430195158068962 ], "centers": [ 0.215 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.785, 0.215 ], "means": [ 0.22519454603137787 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 14.0, 3.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 15.0, 3.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of early January 2026, diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine have intensified, spearheaded by the U.S. administration. A potential peace settlement framework is under discussion, following high-level meetings in Paris involving U.S. envoys and Ukrainian officials. Key components involve security guarantees and addressing territorial disputes, though a planned summit between Presidents Trump and Putin in Budapest may be uncertain. Despite progress on a bilateral security agreement between the U.S. and Ukraine, the Kremlin remains opposed to key elements, especially the deployment of European peacekeepers and any compromise on Ukraine's future alignment.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"8fd79ffad6baa440\",\"sheet_id\":93}}`" }, { "id": 41901, "title": "Will the U.S. impose new secondary sanctions related to Russian oil exports before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. impose new secondary sanctions related to Russian oil exports before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. impose new secondary sanctions related to Russian oil exports before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-impose-new-secondary-sanctions-related-to-russian-oil-exports-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:00.743502Z", "published_at": "2026-01-31T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-31T22:30:00.176385Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:10.205797Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-31T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 111, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41639, "title": "Will the U.S. impose new secondary sanctions related to Russian oil exports before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:26:00.743971Z", "open_time": "2026-01-31T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-31T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-31T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T22:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T22:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Following unsuccessful U.S.-Russia talks regarding Ukraine in December 2025, the U.S. is weighing new actions concerning Russian oil. Previous threats included tariffs on nations buying Russian oil if no peace deal was reached. Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect in November 2025, adding pressure on importers like India and China. The question is whether the U.S. will now impose secondary sanctions targeting those who continue to facilitate Russian oil exports\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"f88e394d7b56227e\",\"sheet_id\":99}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as \"Yes\" if the U.S. government announces new sanctions that explicitly target non-Russian persons, entities, or countries for their role in purchasing, financing, insuring, or transporting Russian crude oil or petroleum products. The announcement must be made by an official body of the U.S. government, such as the Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) (see for example OFAC's [Recent Actions](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions) portal, the White House, or through enacted legislation. Renewals or expansions of existing primary sanctions against Russian entities do not count. The new measures must be secondary in nature, penalizing third parties for engaging with Russia's energy sector.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the U.S. impose new secondary sanctions related to Russian oil exports before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41901, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769898541.470347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769898541.470347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 111, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44456552828249335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 19.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following unsuccessful U.S.-Russia talks regarding Ukraine in December 2025, the U.S. is weighing new actions concerning Russian oil. Previous threats included tariffs on nations buying Russian oil if no peace deal was reached. Sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil took effect in November 2025, adding pressure on importers like India and China. The question is whether the U.S. will now impose secondary sanctions targeting those who continue to facilitate Russian oil exports\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"f88e394d7b56227e\",\"sheet_id\":99}}`" }, { "id": 41900, "title": "Will OpenAI release a model named 'GPT-6' for general public availability before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a model named 'GPT-6' for general public availability before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI release a model named 'GPT-6' for general public availability before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-openai-release-a-model-named-gpt-6-for-general-public-availability-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:45.913163Z", "published_at": "2026-01-31T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-31T13:30:00.138652Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:55.866897Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-31T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41638, "title": "Will OpenAI release a model named 'GPT-6' for general public availability before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:45.913646Z", "open_time": "2026-01-31T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-31T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-31T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T13:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks the technical release and public availability of OpenAI's 'GPT-6' model for the developer ecosystem. It distinguishes between marketing announcements and the actual ability for the general public to build applications using the model.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"bb43c81151ff3eac\",\"sheet_id\":53}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if, after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026, OpenAI makes a model explicitly named 'GPT-6' (or a versioned variant such as 'gpt-6-0314') available for general public use in at least one geographic region via its official API or through its ChatGPT website/app interface. โGeneral public useโ means accessible via selfโserve access (i.e. creating an OpenAI account through standard signup and/or obtaining access by subscribing to a publicly available plan and/or enabling billing), without requiring a specific individual invitation, manual whitelist/allowlist approval, or participation in a closed/private alpha/beta (or application-only limited preview). Resolution sources include official OpenAI API documentation (https://platform.openai.com/docs/models) being announced as generally available via the OpenAI Newsroom (https://openai.com/news/) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a model is released with a different name (e.g., 'GPT-Next' or 'o3') but is widely reported by credible sources to be the successor to GPT-5, it will not count unless OpenAI officially designates it as 'GPT-6'.", "short_title": "Will OpenAI release a model named 'GPT-6' for general public availability before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41900, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769865300.937628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769865300.937628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.13740542182581164 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 4.0, 7.0, 3.0, 7.0, 6.0, 4.0, 9.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question tracks the technical release and public availability of OpenAI's 'GPT-6' model for the developer ecosystem. 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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41636, "title": "Will SpaceX conduct 2 or more orbital Starship launch attempts before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:18.822800Z", "open_time": "2026-01-30T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks the frequency of Starship orbital launch attempts in the first quadrimester of 2026. High launch frequency is a key indicator of SpaceX's progress toward a rapid reuse operational model and its ability to meet Artemis and Starlink deployment schedules.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"41a6b0eec76ac651\",\"sheet_id\":78}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if SpaceX conducts at least two (2) orbital launch attempts of the Starship vehicle (Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage) after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026. An 'orbital launch attempt' is defined as the ignition of the first-stage (Super Heavy) engines for the purpose of flight, regardless of whether the vehicle successfully reaches orbit or completes its mission. Suborbital tests or static fire tests do not count. Resolution will be based on official SpaceX mission logs (https://www.spacex.com/launches/) FAA Commercial Space Transportation launch data (https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/) or other credible sources (e.g., SpaceNews, NASASpaceFlight).", "fine_print": "If a launch attempt is scrubbed after engine ignition but before the vehicle leaves the launch pad, it will count as an attempt only if the ignition was intended for flight. The time of launch is determined by UTC.", "short_title": "Will SpaceX conduct 2 or more orbital Starship launch attempts before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41898, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769806407.626168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769806407.626168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4186551382259634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question tracks the frequency of Starship orbital launch attempts in the first quadrimester of 2026. 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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41635, "title": "Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T08:25:04.559042Z", "open_time": "2026-01-30T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-30T07:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Ukraine's Ministry of Energy (reported)[https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/03/8014459/] that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost power from one of its high-voltage lines on the night of January 2-3, 2026, due to renewed hostilities, forcing the plant onto backup diesel generators. This follows a December 6, 2025, incident where the IAEA reported the ZNPP temporarily lost all connection to external power. The plant's reactors, in cold shutdown, still require a constant power supply for essential safety functions. With a history of roughly 12 blackouts since February 2022 and frequent reliance on single high-voltage lines, the situation remains extremely fragile, necessitating reliance on emergency diesel generators as a last line of defense.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"dd97f29e612a33a3\",\"sheet_id\":95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as \"Yes\" if, after the opening of this question and before May 1, 2026, there are credible reports, for example from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or international news media, that the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has simultaneously lost connection to all its external power lines (currently the 750 kV and 330 kV lines), resulting in a \"full blackout\". The loss of only one of its remaining power lines does not count. The duration of the power loss does not affect the resolution.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant experience another complete loss of external power before", "post_id": 41897, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769758095.606252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769758095.606252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5706896714156822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 2.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Ukraine's Ministry of Energy (reported)[https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/01/03/8014459/] that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) lost power from one of its high-voltage lines on the night of January 2-3, 2026, due to renewed hostilities, forcing the plant onto backup diesel generators. This follows a December 6, 2025, incident where the IAEA reported the ZNPP temporarily lost all connection to external power. The plant's reactors, in cold shutdown, still require a constant power supply for essential safety functions. With a history of roughly 12 blackouts since February 2022 and frequent reliance on single high-voltage lines, the situation remains extremely fragile, necessitating reliance on emergency diesel generators as a last line of defense.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"dd97f29e612a33a3\",\"sheet_id\":95}}`" }, { "id": 41892, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?", "short_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "url_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "slug": "ldp-wins-majority-in-2026-japan-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-28T04:16:36.570864Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T00:35:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T02:06:00.093687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-28T04:16:46.157897Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-01T00:35:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41630, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?", "created_at": "2026-01-28T04:16:36.571347Z", "open_time": "2026-02-01T00:35:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[General elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election) are planned for February 8, 2026, to elect the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese parliament. The House of Representatives has 465 seats, so 233 are needed for a majority.\n\nThe [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) has been the senior partner or sole party in government [almost continuously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_System) since its founding in 1955. The party is currently led by [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi).\n\nThe LDP suffered its second worst electoral result ever in the [2024 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election), falling short of a majority even together with its traditional coalition partner [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito). Since Takaichi took the reins, however, approval of the LDP and Takaichi herself [has surged](https://www.ft.com/content/0d19bc73-b82c-4764-9785-661e8dbd49e0). To capitalize on this, a snap election [has been called](https://www.ft.com/content/5d6de78f-10a0-4883-8437-c05b9562ab37) for February 8, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41693,\"question_id\":41430}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party wins at least 233 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Japanese general election scheduled for February 8, 2026.", "fine_print": "***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41693) which opened on 2026-01-28 02:05:47. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "post_id": 41892, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769911377.006245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769911377.006245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2625, 0.7375 ], "means": [ 0.7065306055850559 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 8.0, 3.0, 1.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[General elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election) are planned for February 8, 2026, to elect the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese parliament. The House of Representatives has 465 seats, so 233 are needed for a majority.\n\nThe [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) has been the senior partner or sole party in government [almost continuously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_System) since its founding in 1955. The party is currently led by [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi).\n\nThe LDP suffered its second worst electoral result ever in the [2024 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election), falling short of a majority even together with its traditional coalition partner [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito). Since Takaichi took the reins, however, approval of the LDP and Takaichi herself [has surged](https://www.ft.com/content/0d19bc73-b82c-4764-9785-661e8dbd49e0). To capitalize on this, a snap election [has been called](https://www.ft.com/content/5d6de78f-10a0-4883-8437-c05b9562ab37) for February 8, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41693,\"question_id\":41430}}`" }, { "id": 41890, "title": "Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encryption claims?", "short_title": "WhatsApp E2E encryption proven false before 2027?", "url_title": "WhatsApp E2E encryption proven false before 2027?", "slug": "whatsapp-e2e-encryption-proven-false-before-2027", "author_id": 290674, "author_username": "lanfranco", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-27T22:34:38.878706Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T03:47:22Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-06T19:20:38.073835Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:49:33.250113Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T03:47:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41628, "title": "Will credible evidence emerge before 2027 that Meta can access the content of WhatsApp messages despite end-to-end encryption claims?", "created_at": "2026-01-27T22:34:38.879143Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T03:47:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-06T03:47:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-06T03:47:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-06T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On January 23, 2026, an international group of plaintiffs [filed a class-action lawsuit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-25/lawsuit-claims-meta-can-see-whatsapp-chats-in-breach-of-privacy) against Meta Platforms, Inc. in US District Court in San Francisco, alleging that WhatsAppโs end-to-end encryption claims are false. The plaintiffsโfrom Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africaโallege that Meta and WhatsApp โstore, analyze, and can access virtually all of WhatsApp usersโ purportedly โprivateโ communications.โ\n\nWhatsApp has promoted end-to-end encryption as a core privacy feature since implementing the [Signal protocol](https://signal.org/docs/) in 2016. The app displays in-chat notices stating that โonly people in this chat can read, listen to, or shareโ messages. End-to-end encryption means that encryption keys are stored only on usersโ devices, theoretically preventing even the service provider from accessing message content.\n\n[The lawsuit](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.463150/gov.uscourts.cand.463150.1.0.pdf) references unnamed โwhistleblowersโ who allegedly provided information about Metaโs ability to access messages. One claim suggests employees could submit internal requests to retrieve messages in real time using user identifiers.\n\nMeta spokesperson Andy Stone called the allegations โcategorically false and absurdโ and described the lawsuit as โa frivolous work of fiction,โ stating that WhatsApp has been end-to-end encrypted using the Signal protocol for a decade. WhatsApp head Will Cathcart [stated](https://x.com/wcathcart/status/2016003768694014092) the company โcanโt read messages because the encryption keys are stored on your phone.โ\n\nIn September 2025, former WhatsApp security head Attaullah Baig [separately sued](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/ex-meta-employee-whistleblower-suit-alleged-security-flaws-whatsapp-.html) Meta over alleged โsystemic cybersecurity failures.โ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, **any of the following occurs**:\n\n1. **Court finding**: A court of competent jurisdiction issues a ruling or finding (even preliminary) that Meta has the technical capability to access WhatsApp message content despite end-to-end encryption claims.\n2. **Regulatory finding**: A government regulatory body (e.g., FTC, EU Data Protection Authority, or equivalent) officially concludes that WhatsAppโs encryption claims are materially false or misleading regarding Metaโs ability to access message content.\n3. **Official admission**: Meta, WhatsApp, or an authorized company representative officially acknowledges that the company can access the content of end-to-end encrypted WhatsApp messages (excluding messages that users have voluntarily reported, backed up to unencrypted cloud storage, or otherwise shared outside the encrypted channel).\n4. **Independent technical verification**: A peer-reviewed security research paper, or findings from at least two independent and reputable security research organizations (e.g., Citizen Lab, EFF, academic institutions), demonstrates a technical mechanism by which Meta can access WhatsApp message content despite claimed end-to-end encryption.\n5. **Authenticated internal documentation**: Internal Meta documents are made public through legal discovery, government investigation, or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) journalistic investigation (e.g., from outlets like The New York Times, The Guardian, Bloomberg, or similar) that demonstrate Meta has the capability to access end-to-end encrypted message content.\n\n**Important clarifications:**\n\n* Mere allegations in lawsuits, regardless of plaintiff credibility, do not constitute resolution.\n* The ability to access metadata (sender, recipient, timestamps, etc.) does not countโonly message content access qualifies.\n* Access to messages through cloud backups, reported messages, or messages forwarded to unencrypted platforms does not count, since these are known exceptions to E2E encryption.\n* A legal settlement without admission of wrongdoing will not resolve this question as Yes.", "fine_print": "* If Meta implements a new feature or policy change after January 2026 that deliberately creates a backdoor or reduces encryption, this will not resolve the question as Yes: the question specifically concerns whether Meta's claims about encryption as of January 2026 have been false.\n* Social media posts, unverified leaks, or claims from parties with obvious conflicts of interest (such as competing platforms) will not on their own cause this question to resolve as Yes.\n* If multiple partial findings emerge that individually donโt meet the threshold but collectively establish the claim, Metaculus may resolve the question based on the preponderance of evidence.", "short_title": "WhatsApp E2E encryption proven false before 2027?", "post_id": 41890, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770405627.363934, "end_time": 1772431102.301, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770405627.363934, "end_time": 1772431102.301, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4465401385409044 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.39246060801706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 23, 2026, an international group of plaintiffs [filed a class-action lawsuit](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-25/lawsuit-claims-meta-can-see-whatsapp-chats-in-breach-of-privacy) against Meta Platforms, Inc. in US District Court in San Francisco, alleging that WhatsAppโs end-to-end encryption claims are false. The plaintiffsโfrom Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and South Africaโallege that Meta and WhatsApp โstore, analyze, and can access virtually all of WhatsApp usersโ purportedly โprivateโ communications.โ\n\nWhatsApp has promoted end-to-end encryption as a core privacy feature since implementing the [Signal protocol](https://signal.org/docs/) in 2016. The app displays in-chat notices stating that โonly people in this chat can read, listen to, or shareโ messages. End-to-end encryption means that encryption keys are stored only on usersโ devices, theoretically preventing even the service provider from accessing message content.\n\n[The lawsuit](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.463150/gov.uscourts.cand.463150.1.0.pdf) references unnamed โwhistleblowersโ who allegedly provided information about Metaโs ability to access messages. One claim suggests employees could submit internal requests to retrieve messages in real time using user identifiers.\n\nMeta spokesperson Andy Stone called the allegations โcategorically false and absurdโ and described the lawsuit as โa frivolous work of fiction,โ stating that WhatsApp has been end-to-end encrypted using the Signal protocol for a decade. WhatsApp head Will Cathcart [stated](https://x.com/wcathcart/status/2016003768694014092) the company โcanโt read messages because the encryption keys are stored on your phone.โ\n\nIn September 2025, former WhatsApp security head Attaullah Baig [separately sued](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/08/ex-meta-employee-whistleblower-suit-alleged-security-flaws-whatsapp-.html) Meta over alleged โsystemic cybersecurity failures.โ" }, { "id": 41883, "title": "Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?", "short_title": "Widespread non-citizen voting occur in 2026 U.S. midterms?", "url_title": "Widespread non-citizen voting occur in 2026 U.S. midterms?", "slug": "widespread-non-citizen-voting-occur-in-2026-us-midterms", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-26T20:11:19.713069Z", "published_at": "2026-02-03T02:27:39Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T11:43:35.938323Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T15:17:36.196334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T15:17:36.196334Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41621, "title": "Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?", "created_at": "2026-01-26T20:11:19.713839Z", "open_time": "2026-02-04T02:27:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-08T02:27:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-08T02:27:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?*\n\nUnder [<u>U.S. federal law</u>](https://www.justice.gov/voting), only U.S. citizens are legally permitted to vote in federal elections, including elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Federal statutes prohibit non-citizen participation in federal races, and states are required to administer congressional elections in compliance with these rules. While [<u>some local jurisdictions permit non-citizens to vote in municipal or school board elections</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_permitting_noncitizens_to_vote_in_the_United_States), those policies do not apply to federal elections and are legally distinct.\n\n[<u>Concerns about non-citizen voting</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/noncitizen-voting-is-extremely-rare-yet-republicans-are-making-it-a-major-election-concern) have been raised periodically in U.S. political discourse. During the 2024 presidential election cycle, former President Donald Trump and allied campaign figures [<u>repeatedly asserted that large numbers of non-citizens were voting or registering to vote in federal elections</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-noncitizen-voter-fraud-fact-check/), framing the issue as a central election-integrity concern. These claims were widely circulated in campaign messaging and media coverage, contributing to [<u>heightened public attention and polarization around the topic</u>](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/12/nx-s1-5147789/voting-election-2024-noncitizen-fact-check-trump). \n\nReviews by election officials, courts, and [<u>independent researchers</u>](https://electioninnovation.org/research/noncitizen-analysis/) have generally found that verified instances of non-citizen voting in federal elections are rare, and typically involve administrative errors or isolated cases rather than coordinated or large-scale activity. Analyses by the [<u>Brennan Center for Justice</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/topics/voting-elections/vote-suppression/myth-voter-fraud) and other election-law experts emphasize the [<u>difference between isolated irregularities and evidence of systemic misconduct</u>](https://www.cato.org/commentary/rights-bogus-claims-about-noncitizen-voting-fraud).\n\nElection administration in the United States is decentralized, with [<u>states responsible for voter registration, list maintenance, and verification procedures.</u>](https://www.projectvote.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/List-Maintenance-Legislative-Brief-March-2010.pdf) These systems commonly rely on sworn citizenship attestations, database checks, and post-election audits. Federal agencies such as the [<u>U.S. Election Assistance Commission</u>](https://www.eac.gov/) collect [<u>nationwide election data</u>](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports) and report on administrative issues identified after federal elections.\n\nIn the context of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, claims of widespread non-citizen voting would be evaluated through post-election audits, criminal investigations, court rulings, and official findings by election authorities, rather than anecdotal reports or unverified allegations. Any confirmed finding of large-scale non-citizen participation in federal races would represent a significant departure from historical precedent and would likely trigger extensive legal and congressional scrutiny.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2027, federal or state courts, election officials, or the U.S. Department of Justice formally determines that non-citizens voted in federal elections across multiple states or jurisdictions at sufficient scale to plausibly affect the outcome of one or more U.S. House or Senate races in the 2026 midterms.", "fine_print": "This question will not resolve as Yes on the basis of cases of non-citizen voting that are explicitly characterized by officials or courts as isolated, inadvertent, or de minimis (i.e., not systemic or outcome-determinative).", "short_title": "Widespread non-citizen voting occur in 2026 U.S. midterms?", "post_id": 41883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will widespread non-citizen voting occur in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections?*\n\nUnder [<u>U.S. federal law</u>](https://www.justice.gov/voting), only U.S. citizens are legally permitted to vote in federal elections, including elections for the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. Federal statutes prohibit non-citizen participation in federal races, and states are required to administer congressional elections in compliance with these rules. While [<u>some local jurisdictions permit non-citizens to vote in municipal or school board elections</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Laws_permitting_noncitizens_to_vote_in_the_United_States), those policies do not apply to federal elections and are legally distinct.\n\n[<u>Concerns about non-citizen voting</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/noncitizen-voting-is-extremely-rare-yet-republicans-are-making-it-a-major-election-concern) have been raised periodically in U.S. political discourse. During the 2024 presidential election cycle, former President Donald Trump and allied campaign figures [<u>repeatedly asserted that large numbers of non-citizens were voting or registering to vote in federal elections</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-noncitizen-voter-fraud-fact-check/), framing the issue as a central election-integrity concern. These claims were widely circulated in campaign messaging and media coverage, contributing to [<u>heightened public attention and polarization around the topic</u>](https://www.npr.org/2024/10/12/nx-s1-5147789/voting-election-2024-noncitizen-fact-check-trump). \n\nReviews by election officials, courts, and [<u>independent researchers</u>](https://electioninnovation.org/research/noncitizen-analysis/) have generally found that verified instances of non-citizen voting in federal elections are rare, and typically involve administrative errors or isolated cases rather than coordinated or large-scale activity. Analyses by the [<u>Brennan Center for Justice</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/topics/voting-elections/vote-suppression/myth-voter-fraud) and other election-law experts emphasize the [<u>difference between isolated irregularities and evidence of systemic misconduct</u>](https://www.cato.org/commentary/rights-bogus-claims-about-noncitizen-voting-fraud).\n\nElection administration in the United States is decentralized, with [<u>states responsible for voter registration, list maintenance, and verification procedures.</u>](https://www.projectvote.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/List-Maintenance-Legislative-Brief-March-2010.pdf) These systems commonly rely on sworn citizenship attestations, database checks, and post-election audits. Federal agencies such as the [<u>U.S. Election Assistance Commission</u>](https://www.eac.gov/) collect [<u>nationwide election data</u>](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports) and report on administrative issues identified after federal elections.\n\nIn the context of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, claims of widespread non-citizen voting would be evaluated through post-election audits, criminal investigations, court rulings, and official findings by election authorities, rather than anecdotal reports or unverified allegations. Any confirmed finding of large-scale non-citizen participation in federal races would represent a significant departure from historical precedent and would likely trigger extensive legal and congressional scrutiny." }, { "id": 41869, "title": "Will Iran's Internet not be \"heavily filtered/whitelisted\" for most users before May 2026?", "short_title": "Iran's Internet not be \"heavily filtered/whitelisted\" before May 2026?", "url_title": "Iran's Internet not be \"heavily filtered/whitelisted\" before May 2026?", "slug": "irans-internet-not-be-heavily-filteredwhitelisted-before-may-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-24T21:27:07.604455Z", "published_at": "2026-02-05T00:36:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T12:14:27.131959Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-05T00:36:36.898307Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-03T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-06T00:36:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "๐งโ๐คโ๐ง", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41607, "title": "Will Iran's Internet not be \"heavily filtered/whitelisted\" for most users before May 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-24T21:27:07.604912Z", "open_time": "2026-02-06T00:36:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-10T00:36:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-10T00:36:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-03T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On December 29, 2025, [Iranโs largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the countryโs currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n\nSince then [the US President threatened the Iranian government and supported the protesters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d), [the protests escalated and became nationwide](https://apnews.com/video/what-to-know-about-the-protests-in-iran-30bed7d6f14f4865b583c9293df83df2), and [the Iranian theocracy brutally responded to the protesters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-war-economy-54e4024a0b9e6a9f3ab49153c8e28f05).\n\nOn January 8, 2026, as tensions rose Iranโs Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (who has been in exile for almost 50 years) called for demonstrations. [The Iranian theocracy responded that day by shutting down the Internet and phone communications](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-war-nuclear-economy-ebddd998fbe7903e70ca62127250ebcb) for the country's population of over 90 million. \n\nAs [Amnesty International outlines](https://www.amnesty.org.au/everything-you-need-to-know-about-internet-shutdowns/),\n\n> Internet shutdowns pose a threat to human rights because they restrict the ability of important human rights activities to be organised and conducted... but are also in direct violation of a number of human rights laws. The United Nations Human Rights Committee has declared that โstates โฆ must not block or hinder internet connectivity in relation to peaceful assemblies.โ\n\nOn 15 January, 2026, [reports suggested that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5gegrdq3go). [Iran has a long history of Internet censorship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Iran).\n\nOn January 27, 2026, [NetBlocks reported](https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/115967507497404228) \"With #Iran's internet shutdown approaching day 20, many networks are becoming visible internationally. HOWEVER: No return to usual: Web still heavily filtered on a whitelist basis. Circumvention still needed: The opening of protocols can enable new workarounds.\"\n\nThis remains the situation as of [NetBlocks update three days later](https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/115985042778046760). \n\nThe recent events have become [\"the bloodiest crackdown on dissent since Iranโs 1979 Islamic Revolution\"](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-nationwide-scale-us-trump-0eecd9962240600150530261dfab03f2) with at least 3,117 people killed (although [other estimates are far higher](https://thebulletin.org/2026/01/irans-internet-shutdown-tells-a-larger-story-digital-repression-is-on-the-rise/)) [The economic damage has also been significant](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-crackdown-internet-business-costs-a0bd2df1d13355dcc28f46e5b5b3c893), further exacerbating tensions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [NetBlocks](https://netblocks.org/) reports that Internet access in Iran is <u>not</u> \"heavily filtered/whitelisted\" for most users, for a continuous period of more than 24 hours, before May 1, 2026 (IRST).", "fine_print": "For this question, \"Most users\" is defined as >50% of Internet users in Iran.\n\nIf Netblocks ceases to release reports, or is otherwise found to be clearly unreliable for the purpose of this question, this question will be annulled.\n\nThis question does not require any specific phrasing, if Netblocks reports the required criteria, this question will resolve as Yes regardless of how it is phrased. If it is unclear or disputed this question may be annulled.", "short_title": "Iran's Internet not be \"heavily filtered/whitelisted\" before May 2026?", "post_id": 41869, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 29, 2025, [Iranโs largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the countryโs currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n\nSince then [the US President threatened the Iranian government and supported the protesters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d), [the protests escalated and became nationwide](https://apnews.com/video/what-to-know-about-the-protests-in-iran-30bed7d6f14f4865b583c9293df83df2), and [the Iranian theocracy brutally responded to the protesters](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-war-economy-54e4024a0b9e6a9f3ab49153c8e28f05).\n\nOn January 8, 2026, as tensions rose Iranโs Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi (who has been in exile for almost 50 years) called for demonstrations. [The Iranian theocracy responded that day by shutting down the Internet and phone communications](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-war-nuclear-economy-ebddd998fbe7903e70ca62127250ebcb) for the country's population of over 90 million. \n\nAs [Amnesty International outlines](https://www.amnesty.org.au/everything-you-need-to-know-about-internet-shutdowns/),\n\n> Internet shutdowns pose a threat to human rights because they restrict the ability of important human rights activities to be organised and conducted... but are also in direct violation of a number of human rights laws. The United Nations Human Rights Committee has declared that โstates โฆ must not block or hinder internet connectivity in relation to peaceful assemblies.โ\n\nOn 15 January, 2026, [reports suggested that international web access will not be available until at least the Iranian New Year in late March](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cg5gegrdq3go). [Iran has a long history of Internet censorship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_in_Iran).\n\nOn January 27, 2026, [NetBlocks reported](https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/115967507497404228) \"With #Iran's internet shutdown approaching day 20, many networks are becoming visible internationally. HOWEVER: No return to usual: Web still heavily filtered on a whitelist basis. Circumvention still needed: The opening of protocols can enable new workarounds.\"\n\nThis remains the situation as of [NetBlocks update three days later](https://mastodon.social/@netblocks/115985042778046760). \n\nThe recent events have become [\"the bloodiest crackdown on dissent since Iranโs 1979 Islamic Revolution\"](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-nationwide-scale-us-trump-0eecd9962240600150530261dfab03f2) with at least 3,117 people killed (although [other estimates are far higher](https://thebulletin.org/2026/01/irans-internet-shutdown-tells-a-larger-story-digital-repression-is-on-the-rise/)) [The economic damage has also been significant](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-crackdown-internet-business-costs-a0bd2df1d13355dcc28f46e5b5b3c893), further exacerbating tensions." }, { "id": 41861, "title": "Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?", "short_title": "Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor Oscar in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor Oscar in 2026?", "slug": "will-wagner-moura-win-best-actor-oscar-in-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T12:48:28.311555Z", "published_at": "2026-01-30T03:05:07Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-05T14:18:18.002684Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-30T03:05:47.236373Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-31T03:05:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } }, "question": { "id": 41597, "title": "Will Wagner Moura win the Academy Award for Best Actor at the 2026 Academy Awards?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T12:48:28.312044Z", "open_time": "2026-01-31T03:05:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-04T03:05:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-04T03:05:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On January 22, 2026, [the Academy Awards announced](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2026) their nominations for the 98th ceremony awards.\n\n[As reported by Remezcla](https://remezcla.com/film/wagner-moura-becomes-first-brazilian-man-nominated-for-best-actor-at-oscars/), a progressive media brand that puts emerging Latin culture on the map, history was made for Brazil.\n\n> Wagner Moura is an Oscar-nominee. The Brazilian actor has become the first Brazilian man to be nominated for an acting Oscar and just the third Brazilian performer to get a nomination, after Fernanda Montenegro and her daughter, Fernanda Torres. Moura was nominated in the Best Actor in a Leading Role category for his role in *The Secret Agent*.\n\n> Other actors nominated in the category include Timothรฉe Chalamet for *Marty Supreme*, Leonardo DiCaprio for *One Battle After Another*, Ethan Hawke for *Blue Moon*, and Michael B. Jordan for *Sinners*.\n\nEarlier in the month [Moura won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama](https://remezcla.com/film/wagner-moura-makes-history-as-first-brazilian-man-to-win-this-golden-globe/) for his role in *The Secret Agent,* a 2025 neo-noir thriller film about a man on the run from a dictator during the political tumult of 1977 Brazil. He was the first Brazilian man to win such an award.\n\nThe 98th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Wagner Moura wins the Academy Award for Best Actor at [the 98th Academy Awards](https://www.oscars.org/).", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor Oscar in 2026?", "post_id": 41861, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770195494.982622, "end_time": 1772291245.98, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770195494.982622, "end_time": 1772291245.98, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1086789691363059 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 22, 2026, [the Academy Awards announced](https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2026) their nominations for the 98th ceremony awards.\n\n[As reported by Remezcla](https://remezcla.com/film/wagner-moura-becomes-first-brazilian-man-nominated-for-best-actor-at-oscars/), a progressive media brand that puts emerging Latin culture on the map, history was made for Brazil.\n\n> Wagner Moura is an Oscar-nominee. The Brazilian actor has become the first Brazilian man to be nominated for an acting Oscar and just the third Brazilian performer to get a nomination, after Fernanda Montenegro and her daughter, Fernanda Torres. Moura was nominated in the Best Actor in a Leading Role category for his role in *The Secret Agent*.\n\n> Other actors nominated in the category include Timothรฉe Chalamet for *Marty Supreme*, Leonardo DiCaprio for *One Battle After Another*, Ethan Hawke for *Blue Moon*, and Michael B. Jordan for *Sinners*.\n\nEarlier in the month [Moura won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Drama](https://remezcla.com/film/wagner-moura-makes-history-as-first-brazilian-man-to-win-this-golden-globe/) for his role in *The Secret Agent,* a 2025 neo-noir thriller film about a man on the run from a dictator during the political tumult of 1977 Brazil. He was the first Brazilian man to win such an award.\n\nThe 98th Academy Awards ceremony will take place on Sunday March 15, 2026, at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles, United States." }, { "id": 41849, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-march-15-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:54.981816Z", "published_at": "2026-02-07T15:38:19Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T17:09:00.085482Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:10:04.453963Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-07T17:08:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-07T17:08:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-07T15:38:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41585, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:54.982224Z", "open_time": "2026-02-07T15:38:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-07T17:08:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-07T17:08:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-07T17:08:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-07T17:08:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAIโs rapid revenue growthโexpected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-endโis matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41205,\"question_id\":40915}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before March 15, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.\n\n***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41205) which opened on 2025-12-16 13:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "post_id": 41849, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770483419.738568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14787447348570443 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770483419.738568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14787447348570443 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0921788757322813 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0, 12.0, 11.0, 11.0, 7.0, 17.0, 3.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAIโs rapid revenue growthโexpected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-endโis matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41205,\"question_id\":40915}}`" }, { "id": 41848, "title": "Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?", "short_title": "Meta settle compulsive use by minors suit by 2026?", "url_title": "Meta settle compulsive use by minors suit by 2026?", "slug": "meta-settle-compulsive-use-by-minors-suit-by-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:40.242219Z", "published_at": "2026-02-07T10:09:51Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T11:40:00.152427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:49.558229Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-07T11:39:51Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-07T11:39:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-07T10:09:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41584, "title": "Before March 1, 2026, will Meta settle the lawsuit brought by state attorneys general alleging the platform(s) were designed to foster compulsive use by minors?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:40.242626Z", "open_time": "2026-02-07T10:09:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-07T11:39:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-07T11:39:51Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-07T11:39:51Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-07T11:39:51Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[*Frances Haugen*](https://www.franceshaugen.com/) *provided this question for their talk \"Shaping the Economics of Social Media\" at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nIn October 2023, a coalition of state attorneys general [filed lawsuits](https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-files-lawsuit-against-meta-over-harms-youth-mental-health) against Meta (formerly Facebook), alleging that the company deliberately designed Instagram and Facebook features to promote compulsive use by young users, while being aware of potential harms to youth mental health.\n\n[According to the American Bar Association](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/resources/law_related_education_network/how_courts_work/cases_settling/):\n\n> Relatively few lawsuits ever go through the full range of procedures and all the way to trial. Most civil cases are settled by mutual agreement between the parties. A dispute can be settled even before a suit is filed. Once a suit is filed, it can be settled before the trial begins, during the trial, while the jury is deliberating, or even after a verdict is rendered.A settlement doesnโt usually state that anyone was right or wrong in the case, nor does it have to settle the whole case. Part of a dispute can be settled, with the remaining issues left to be resolved by the judge or jury.\n\nFor more information and background on settlements see: [A Comprehensive Theory of Civil Settlement](https://law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Paper%20March%2022%20-%20Prescott%20and%20Spier.pdf)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35320,\"question_id\":34790}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2026, Meta reaches a settlement in the [*People of the State of California v. Meta Platforms, Inc*](https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/67908468/the-people-of-the-state-of-california-v-meta-platforms-inc/), brought by a coalition of state attorneys general over allegations that Meta's platforms were designed to foster compulsive use by minors. The settlement must be formally announced and agreed to by both Meta and a substantial majority of the participating states to qualify.\n\nTo qualify as a settlement, the agreement must include formal resolution of the core allegations about platform design and youth addiction, with either monetary compensation, commitments to specific platform changes, or both. [Partial settlements](https://law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Paper%20March%2022%20-%20Prescott%20and%20Spier.pdf), for example award-modification agreements, issue-modification agreements, or procedure-modification agreements will generally not count, the core issue must be resolved.", "fine_print": "The settlement must represent a comprehensive resolution with the main coalition of states. Individual settlements with small numbers of states will **not** result in the question resolving as **Yes** unless they are part of a broader agreement with the coalition. Preliminary or \"in principle\" agreements must be followed by formal settlement documents before the deadline to count for positive resolution.\n\nThe question immediately resolves as **Yes** once these criteria are met, it will be immaterial if the settlement is later voided or the case further litigated.\n\n***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35320) which opened on 2025-02-21 00:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Meta settle compulsive use by minors suit by 2026?", "post_id": 41848, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770464037.946814, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04166666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1692926470975134 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770464037.946814, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 112, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04166666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1692926470975134 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.12418753912387819 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 16.0, 3.0, 13.0, 5.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 119, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[*Frances Haugen*](https://www.franceshaugen.com/) *provided this question for their talk \"Shaping the Economics of Social Media\" at Foresight Institute's* [*Vision Weekend 2025*](https://foresight.org/vw2025pr/)*. Learn more in the* [*Foresight Community*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/foresight/)*.*\n\n***\n\nIn October 2023, a coalition of state attorneys general [filed lawsuits](https://oag.ca.gov/news/press-releases/attorney-general-bonta-files-lawsuit-against-meta-over-harms-youth-mental-health) against Meta (formerly Facebook), alleging that the company deliberately designed Instagram and Facebook features to promote compulsive use by young users, while being aware of potential harms to youth mental health.\n\n[According to the American Bar Association](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/resources/law_related_education_network/how_courts_work/cases_settling/):\n\n> Relatively few lawsuits ever go through the full range of procedures and all the way to trial. Most civil cases are settled by mutual agreement between the parties. A dispute can be settled even before a suit is filed. Once a suit is filed, it can be settled before the trial begins, during the trial, while the jury is deliberating, or even after a verdict is rendered.A settlement doesnโt usually state that anyone was right or wrong in the case, nor does it have to settle the whole case. Part of a dispute can be settled, with the remaining issues left to be resolved by the judge or jury.\n\nFor more information and background on settlements see: [A Comprehensive Theory of Civil Settlement](https://law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/upload_documents/Paper%20March%2022%20-%20Prescott%20and%20Spier.pdf)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35320,\"question_id\":34790}}`" }, { "id": 41846, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-march-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:11.178760Z", "published_at": "2026-02-06T12:31:13Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-06T14:02:00.333931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:20.107100Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-06T14:01:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-06T14:01:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-06T12:31:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41582, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:09:11.179157Z", "open_time": "2026-02-06T12:31:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-06T14:01:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-06T14:01:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-06T14:01:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-06T14:01:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Guinea-Bisau November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40872,\"question_id\":40544}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup dโรฉtat in any country on the African continent or Latin America after November 28, 2025 and before March 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup dโรฉtat (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.\n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant organized resistance to their control from within the government or military has ceased, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.\n\n***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40872) which opened on 2025-11-28 13:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41846, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770385873.938234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2275 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770385873.938234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2275 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2272418952360752 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 7.0, 8.0, 3.0, 6.0, 19.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Guinea-Bisau November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40872,\"question_id\":40544}}`" }, { "id": 41844, "title": "Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?", "short_title": "95% Nigerian Financial Inclusion by 2025", "url_title": "95% Nigerian Financial Inclusion by 2025", "slug": "95-nigerian-financial-inclusion-by-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:08:43.138368Z", "published_at": "2026-02-05T18:45:40Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T10:51:07.638830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:08:51.514387Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-05T20:15:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-05T20:15:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-05T18:45:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41580, "title": "Will 95% or more of Nigerians have a bank account before 2025?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:08:43.139149Z", "open_time": "2026-02-05T18:45:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-05T20:15:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-05T20:15:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-05T20:15:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-05T20:15:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "An important concept in economic development is [Financial Inclusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_inclusion): the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a population with a bank account. According to the [World Bank](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/account-at-financial-institution?tab=chart&country=~NGA), 39.7% of Nigerians had a bank account in 2017, an increase from 29.7% in 2011. \n\n\n[Motta, V. 2020](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-018-0082-9) found a positive relationship between access to external finance and labor productivity of small/medium businesses.\n\nIn July 2019 Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, [set a goal](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf) to reach 95% of the population with a bank account by 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":10220,\"question_id\":10220}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolve as \"Yes\" if 95% or more of Nigerians aged 18 or older have an account at a bank or financial institution before January 1, 2025. This question will resolve according to data from the [Central Bank of Nigeria](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf); if no such data is available, or said data is known to be inaccurate, data from [The World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/fx.own.totl.zs?locations=NG) may be considered, or from credible independent researchers.\n\nIf the data shows less than 95% of the population with a bank account through 2024, or If no such data is available by March 1, 2026, this question will resolve negatively", "fine_print": "***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10220) which opened on 2022-03-12 06:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "95% Nigerian Financial Inclusion by 2025", "post_id": 41844, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770321235.384511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770321235.384511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04604457714494962 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.0, 56.0, 12.0, 10.0, 3.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An important concept in economic development is [Financial Inclusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_inclusion): the degree which a population has access to affordable, convenient, and reliable banking and financial services. One basic measure of financial inclusion is the percent of a population with a bank account. According to the [World Bank](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/account-at-financial-institution?tab=chart&country=~NGA), 39.7% of Nigerians had a bank account in 2017, an increase from 29.7% in 2011. \n\n\n[Motta, V. 2020](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11187-018-0082-9) found a positive relationship between access to external finance and labor productivity of small/medium businesses.\n\nIn July 2019 Godwin Emefiele, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, [set a goal](https://www.cbn.gov.ng/out/2019/ccd/q2%202019%20financial%20inclusion%20newsletter_final_08.08.19.pdf) to reach 95% of the population with a bank account by 2024.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":10220,\"question_id\":10220}}`" }, { "id": 41839, "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027, before February 5, 2026?", "short_title": "New START renewed until February 2027", "url_title": "New START renewed until February 2027", "slug": "new-start-renewed-until-february-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:07:32.370799Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T16:24:06Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-06T07:29:06.025500Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:07:41.612235Z", "comment_count": 108, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T17:54:06Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T17:54:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-02-05T13:03:00Z", "open_time": "2026-02-01T16:24:06Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "โข๏ธ", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41575, "title": "Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027, before February 5, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:07:32.371242Z", "open_time": "2026-02-01T16:24:06Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-01T17:54:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-01T17:54:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-05T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-02-05T13:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-02-06T07:29:01.886526Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T17:54:06Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T17:54:06Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until February 5, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":8393,\"question_id\":8393}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before February 5, 2026, either of the following conditions occur:\n\n1. There are credible reports such as by the [Arms Control Association](https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/USRussiaNuclearAgreements) of New START being extended to at least February 5, 2027.\n2. There are credible reports of New START being replaced by another nuclear arms control agreement that will last until at least February 5, 2027 and that US officials, Russian officials, and other credible sources describe as a successor to New START.", "fine_print": "It is not necessary that the renewed or replacement treaty has very similar terms. But note that the second condition would not be met if one or two of the three relevant groups (US officials, Russian officials, or other credible sources) do *not* describe the treaty as a successor to New START.\n\n***\n\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8393) which opened on 2021-10-28 14:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "New START renewed until February 2027", "post_id": 41839, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769967586.76011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.065 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769967586.76011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.06592080959569689 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 25.0, 14.0, 13.0, 5.0, 21.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.14709817315929, "peer_score": 3.556447537092397, "coverage": 0.9878000303551001, "relative_legacy_score": -0.006972710143958685, "weighted_coverage": 0.9878000303551001, "spot_peer_score": 3.8428065760378045, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 94.14709817315929, "peer_archived_score": 3.556447537092397, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.006972710143958685, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.8428065760378045, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[New START](https://www.state.gov/new-start/) is a nuclear arms reduction treaty between the United States and the Russian Federation, which was signed on 8 April 2010. After its extension in 2021 it is expected to last until February 5, 2026.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":8393,\"question_id\":8393}}`" }, { "id": 41837, "title": "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will any AI achieve โฅ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will any AI achieve โฅ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-any-ai-achieve-94-on-gpqa-diamond-benchmark-leaderboard-by-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:07:03.793535Z", "published_at": "2026-01-27T17:18:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-27T18:49:00.092134Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:07:12.936865Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-27T18:48:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-27T18:48:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-27T17:18:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 104, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41573, "title": "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:07:03.794052Z", "open_time": "2026-01-27T17:18:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-27T18:48:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-27T18:48:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-27T18:48:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-27T18:48:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n\nAs of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n\n| Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n| ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n| **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ยฑ1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ยฑ1.9%** | OpenAI |\n| **Grok 4** | **87.0% ยฑ2.0%** | xAI |\n| **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ยฑ2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ยฑ2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ยฑ2.1%** | Moonshot |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ยฑ2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ยฑ2.7%** | Anthropic |\n| **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ยฑ2.8%** | Anthropic |\n\nAcording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n\n> The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n\n> We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n\n> Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n\nAn example of a question is:\n\n> *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n\n> *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n\n> *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40776,\"question_id\":40435}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.", "fine_print": "At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n\nPlease note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n\nAdditionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />\n\n***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40776) which opened on 2025-11-22 13:00:00. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will any AI achieve โฅ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41837, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769539511.127961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769539511.127961, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.1627556900354173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 8.0, 2.0, 3.0, 9.0, 1.0, 9.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 18.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n\nAs of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n\n| Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n| ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n| **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ยฑ1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ยฑ1.9%** | OpenAI |\n| **Grok 4** | **87.0% ยฑ2.0%** | xAI |\n| **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ยฑ2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ยฑ2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ยฑ2.1%** | Moonshot |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ยฑ2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ยฑ2.7%** | Anthropic |\n| **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ยฑ2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ยฑ2.8%** | Anthropic |\n\nAcording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n\n> The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n\n> We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n\n> Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n\nAn example of a question is:\n\n> *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n\n> *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n\n> *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40776,\"question_id\":40435}}`" }, { "id": 41835, "title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-enter-a-shutdown-before-february-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:06:35.186687Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T16:54:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-02T07:33:23.175256Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-23T04:06:44.726297Z", "comment_count": 105, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:14:00Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T16:54:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T16:57:10.261021Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41571, "title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T04:06:35.187086Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T16:54:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T19:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-02-02T07:33:18.501186Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T18:24:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n\nAs [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n\n> Democrats didnโt get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didnโt escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n\n> The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n\n> The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government โ food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n\n[The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n\nThe deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n\n[The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n\nFor the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). ", "fine_print": "If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\n***\nThis question's information (resolution criteria, fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40919) which opened on 2025-12-04 11:43:24. This question will resolve based on the resolution criteria and fine print contained above. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41835, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769192410.392015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769192410.392015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2733947046616797 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -113.63156568763529, "peer_score": 10.860768515632497, "coverage": 0.9858569972161892, "relative_legacy_score": 0.25184333091120203, "weighted_coverage": 0.9858569972161892, "spot_peer_score": 13.685394185518064, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -113.63156568763529, "peer_archived_score": 10.860768515632497, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.25184333091120203, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.685394185518064, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n\nAs [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n\n> Democrats didnโt get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didnโt escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n\n> The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n\n> The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government โ food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n\n[The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n\nThe deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n\n[The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_closes_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40919,\"question_id\":40605}}`" }, { "id": 41806, "title": "Will the SWE-bench Bash Only benchmark have a new high score before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "New highscore on SWE-bench by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "New highscore on SWE-bench by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "new-highscore-on-swe-bench-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T01:39:45.476484Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T15:59:57.958065Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-02T12:14:58.442880Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 319, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T17:29:20.384595Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T17:29:20.384595Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41545, "title": "Will the SWE-bench Bash Only benchmark have a new high score before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T01:39:45.476855Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "According to [SWE-bench](https://www.swebench.com/original.html):\n\n> SWE-bench tests AI systems' ability to solve GitHub issues.\n\n> We collect 2,294 task instances by crawling Pull Requests and Issues from 12 popular Python repositories. Each instance is based on a pull request that (1) is associated with an issue, and (2) modified 1+ testing related files.\n\nThe original SWE-bench has a wide latitude for human developers to create \"scaffolding\" or instructions that guide an AI's reasoning, which can get quite complex. To offer a more apples-to-apples comparison of the underlying AI models, the Bash Only rules allow no tools and only minimal scaffolding, using its [mini-SWE-agent](https://github.com/SWE-agent/mini-swe-agent). \n\nAs of January 22, 2026, the top 7 models were: \n\n| Model | % Resolved | Avg. \\$ | Date | Release |\n| ---------------------------------------- | ---------- | ------- | ---------- | ------- |\n| ๐ Claude 4.5 Opus medium (2025-11-01) | 74.40 | \\$0.72 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |\n| ๐ Gemini 3 Pro Preview (2025-11-18) | 74.20 | \\$0.46 | 2025-11-18 | 1.15.0 |\n| ๐ GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) (high reasoning) | 71.80 | \\$0.52 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4.5 Sonnet (2025-09-29) | 70.60 | \\$0.56 | 2025-09-29 | 1.13.3 |\n| ๐ GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) | 69.00 | \\$0.27 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4 Opus (2025-05-14) | 67.60 | \\$1.13 | 2025-08-02 | 1.0.0 |\n| ๐ GPT-5.1-codex (medium reasoning) | 66.00 | \\$0.59 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026, a model on the [SWE-bench Bash Only leaderboard](https://www.swebench.com/bash-only.html) has a \"% Resolved\" score of greater than 74.40%.", "fine_print": "If SWE-bench cannot be accessed for resolution or the relevant figures are otherwise unavailable, this question will be **annulled**.", "short_title": "New highscore on SWE-bench by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41806, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 556, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [SWE-bench](https://www.swebench.com/original.html):\n\n> SWE-bench tests AI systems' ability to solve GitHub issues.\n\n> We collect 2,294 task instances by crawling Pull Requests and Issues from 12 popular Python repositories. Each instance is based on a pull request that (1) is associated with an issue, and (2) modified 1+ testing related files.\n\nThe original SWE-bench has a wide latitude for human developers to create \"scaffolding\" or instructions that guide an AI's reasoning, which can get quite complex. To offer a more apples-to-apples comparison of the underlying AI models, the Bash Only rules allow no tools and only minimal scaffolding, using its [mini-SWE-agent](https://github.com/SWE-agent/mini-swe-agent). \n\nAs of January 22, 2026, the top 7 models were: \n\n| Model | % Resolved | Avg. \\$ | Date | Release |\n| ---------------------------------------- | ---------- | ------- | ---------- | ------- |\n| ๐ Claude 4.5 Opus medium (2025-11-01) | 74.40 | \\$0.72 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |\n| ๐ Gemini 3 Pro Preview (2025-11-18) | 74.20 | \\$0.46 | 2025-11-18 | 1.15.0 |\n| ๐ GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) (high reasoning) | 71.80 | \\$0.52 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4.5 Sonnet (2025-09-29) | 70.60 | \\$0.56 | 2025-09-29 | 1.13.3 |\n| ๐ GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) | 69.00 | \\$0.27 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4 Opus (2025-05-14) | 67.60 | \\$1.13 | 2025-08-02 | 1.0.0 |\n| ๐ GPT-5.1-codex (medium reasoning) | 66.00 | \\$0.59 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |" }, { "id": 41805, "title": "Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Criminal charges for the death of Renee Good", "url_title": "Criminal charges for the death of Renee Good", "slug": "criminal-charges-for-the-death-of-renee-good", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T23:28:34.821960Z", "published_at": "2026-01-29T13:53:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-07T03:55:14.642683Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-29T13:54:20.642133Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T22:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-30T13:53:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } }, "question": { "id": 41544, "title": "Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T23:28:34.822614Z", "open_time": "2026-01-30T13:53:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-03T13:53:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-03T13:53:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T22:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Renee Nicole Good was a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and mother of three. On January 7, 2026, Good was [fatally shot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Ren%C3%A9e_Good) by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent, Jonathan Ross, during a federal immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis, where Good had recently moved. Body-cam and bystander video show an ICE officer firing multiple shots into her vehicle as she began driving from a stopped position. Federal officials [claimed](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/08/nx-s1-5671061/minneapolis-ice-shooting-noem#:~:text=What%20we%20know%20one%20day,an%20ICE%20agent%20in%20Minneapolis\\&text=The%20killing%20of%20Renee%20Nicole,as%20well%2C%22%20she%20said.) the agent acted in self-defense after Goodโs car moved toward him, but family, local leaders, and [video evidence](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/video/ice-shooting-renee-good-minneapolis-videos.html) have challenged that narrative. The incident has sparked intense debate over use of force, federal authority, and transparency, with ongoing investigations and calls for accountability.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2026, Jonathan Ross is formally charged or indicted for murder or manslaughter for the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good.", "fine_print": "The charges must state explicitly that Ross is accused in the unlawful killing or in the unlawful causing of the death of Renee Good. If Ross is charged with a crime that is not murder or manslaughter, such as the deprivation of Good's civil rights, that will not cause this question to resolve as Yes.", "short_title": "Criminal charges for the death of Renee Good", "post_id": 41805, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770436504.458739, "end_time": 1772296184.525, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770436504.458739, "end_time": 1772296184.525, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.3969012071783327 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1806270655980315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.362543115534516, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26200645366200404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Renee Nicole Good was a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and mother of three. On January 7, 2026, Good was [fatally shot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Ren%C3%A9e_Good) by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent, Jonathan Ross, during a federal immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis, where Good had recently moved. Body-cam and bystander video show an ICE officer firing multiple shots into her vehicle as she began driving from a stopped position. Federal officials [claimed](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/08/nx-s1-5671061/minneapolis-ice-shooting-noem#:~:text=What%20we%20know%20one%20day,an%20ICE%20agent%20in%20Minneapolis\\&text=The%20killing%20of%20Renee%20Nicole,as%20well%2C%22%20she%20said.) the agent acted in self-defense after Goodโs car moved toward him, but family, local leaders, and [video evidence](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/video/ice-shooting-renee-good-minneapolis-videos.html) have challenged that narrative. The incident has sparked intense debate over use of force, federal authority, and transparency, with ongoing investigations and calls for accountability." }, { "id": 41804, "title": "Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?", "short_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "url_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "slug": "sudan-errs-nobel-winners-2026", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T15:24:27.810419Z", "published_at": "2026-01-22T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T10:36:50.662670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T15:25:19.647250Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-22T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 41543, "title": "Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T15:24:27.810906Z", "open_time": "2026-01-22T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024.\n\nIn 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the [PRIO Director's shortlist](https://www.prio.org/news/3596), which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025/will-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025), ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.\n\nThe same year, ERRs received the [Rafto Prize for Human Rights](https://www.rafto.no/en/the-rafto-prize/emergency-response-rooms-of-sudan-err) and the [Right Livelihood Award](https://rightlivelihood.org/the-change-makers/find-a-laureate/emergency-response-rooms/), both sometimes called \"alternative Nobels.\" Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta.\n\nAs of January 22nd 2026, ERRs do not appear on the [2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), as published on [nobelprize.org](nobelprize.org).\n\nThe prize may be shared with other laureates. The question resolves Yes if ERRs are among the named recipients.\n\nThis question resolves NO if the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to any individual or organization that does not include the ERRs.", "fine_print": "If no Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in 2026, as has occurred 19 times since 1901, the question resolves No.\n\n\"Emergency Response Rooms\" refers to the Sudanese volunteer network also known in Arabic as ุบุฑู ุงูุงุณุชุฌุงุจุฉ ููุทูุงุฑุฆ. If the Committee names a closely related successor organization or coalition that clearly evolved from the ERRs, resolution will be determined by moderator judgment in consultation with the community.", "short_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "post_id": 41804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769156876.25977, "end_time": 1771835274.46, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769156876.25977, "end_time": 1771835274.46, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.23 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024.\n\nIn 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the [PRIO Director's shortlist](https://www.prio.org/news/3596), which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025/will-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025), ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.\n\nThe same year, ERRs received the [Rafto Prize for Human Rights](https://www.rafto.no/en/the-rafto-prize/emergency-response-rooms-of-sudan-err) and the [Right Livelihood Award](https://rightlivelihood.org/the-change-makers/find-a-laureate/emergency-response-rooms/), both sometimes called \"alternative Nobels.\" Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta.\n\nAs of January 22nd 2026, ERRs do not appear on the [2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139)." } ] }
