Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6691, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 41526, "title": "Will the Euro appreciate against the Dollar during 2026?", "short_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "url_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "slug": "euro-gains-vs-dollar-in-2026", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:10:39.124570Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T14:29:27Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T17:57:25.880624Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T14:29:31.899923Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:29:27Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41267, "title": "Will the Euro appreciate against the Dollar during 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-10T17:10:39.125002Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:29:27Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:29:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:29:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro. \n\nIn September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026, that has not happened, with the exchange rate remaining in the 1.15 - 1.18 range.\n\nIn general, economic uncertainty or low interest rates drives investors away from a currency. Thus, economic growth, central bank activities and government policy will likely impact the exchange rate. While opinions differ, the current consensus [appears to be negative](https://www.reuters.com/business/dire-year-dollar-has-little-light-end-tunnel-2026-2025-12-22/) for the dollar in 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the exchange rate from the Euro (EUR) to Dollar (USD) on the last trading day of 2026 is higher than 1.1747 as reported by [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX/). ", "fine_print": "The value for this question is expected be available under the \"Historical Data\" tab of the EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) ticker in the \"Close\" column.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance ceases to be available, alternative reliable sources of currency exchange rates may be used.\n\nIf EUR or USD cease to exist, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Euro gains vs dollar in 2026?", "post_id": 41526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769018235.53851, "end_time": 1770924830.582, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769018235.53851, "end_time": 1770924830.582, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.6207543765846382 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37946138091132875, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.8466140333370573, 0.9696617405915442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.3168435046961656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After an initial low period following the victory of Donald Trump where the EUR/USD rate [fell as low as 1.0267](https://www.ft.com/content/e572d9c2-547a-4736-b482-78e2a29450fb), the euro surged against the dollar and almost reached 1.20 dollars per euro. \n\nIn September 2025, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/5b179bb6-684a-48d1-abac-a25aacb12a49) that banks were predicting the euro would continue its gains in the coming time and finally cross 1.20. As of January 2026, that has not happened, with the exchange rate remaining in the 1.15 - 1.18 range.\n\nIn general, economic uncertainty or low interest rates drives investors away from a currency. Thus, economic growth, central bank activities and government policy will likely impact the exchange rate. While opinions differ, the current consensus [appears to be negative](https://www.reuters.com/business/dire-year-dollar-has-little-light-end-tunnel-2026-2025-12-22/) for the dollar in 2026." }, { "id": 41521, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-unga-condemn-the-us-operation-in-venezuela-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.357372Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-15T06:34:26.015637Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.548056Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T04:12:23.382661Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T04:12:23.382661Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41264, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:30.357787Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T20:42:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41499,\"question_id\":41228}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, the United Nations General Assembly adopts a [resolution](https://research.un.org/en/docs/ga/quick/regular/80) that according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) condemns or deplores a US operation in Venezuela.", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41499) which opened on 2026-01-07 13:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41521, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768169118.669351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768169118.669351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.504703323292036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41499,\"question_id\":41228}}`" }, { "id": 41520, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "url_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "slug": "podium-sweep-at-2026-olympics", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:26.910728Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-11T17:00:00.438643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:27.085831Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T04:12:23.382661Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T04:12:23.382661Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41263, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:26.911128Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41370,\"question_id\":41081}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one podium sweep occurs at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.\n\nA podium sweep is defined as:\n\n* All three medal positions (gold, silver, bronze) in a single Olympic event being won by athletes representing the same country or designation.", "fine_print": "Podium sweeps achieved by athletes competing under a neutral or independent designation will count as a sweep for that designation if all three medalists share the same designation.\n\nMedal reallocations or disqualifications announced after the conclusion of the Games will not affect resolution.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41370) which opened on 2026-01-07 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "post_id": 41520, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768150214.35054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6026637609087606 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768150214.35054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6026637609087606 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6813477342481707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41370,\"question_id\":41081}}`" }, { "id": 41518, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-venezuela-announce-a-presidential-election-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:19.951922Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T12:32:34Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-11T14:03:00.191590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:20.153122Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-11T12:32:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T04:12:23.382661Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T04:12:23.382661Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41261, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:21:19.952399Z", "open_time": "2026-01-11T12:32:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41489,\"question_id\":41216}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Venezuela officially announces a new presidential election. In order to count, the announcement must be made by a person or entity with the legal authority to do so, the announcement must name a specific election date, and voting must take place before January 1, 2027. ", "fine_print": "This question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41489) which opened on 2026-01-06 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41518, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768139410.690545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768139410.690545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1987754385945178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 11.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41489,\"question_id\":41216}}`" }, { "id": 41516, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "url_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "slug": "attacks-causes-5-israeli-casualties-or-shelter-order-by-march-1", "author_id": 112910, "author_username": "nor", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:18:38.174419Z", "published_at": "2026-01-11T14:23:19Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T01:32:12.685772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-11T14:23:33.851593Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:23:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41259, "title": "Will attacks on Israel cause 5+ casualties or a nationwide shelter order before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T13:18:38.174824Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T14:23:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T14:23:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2026, at least one of the following occur:\n\n1. A foreign attack within Israel results in 5 or more casualties according to credible sources.\n2. The government of Israel issues a nationwide shelter in place order.", "fine_print": "For this question, casualties refer to both deaths and injuries and includes both the civilian population and military soldiers.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, territory administered by Israel within the West Bank, and the Golan Heights will be counted as within Israel.\n\nNon-state organisations such as Hamas and Hezbollah conducting an attack will qualify as a foreign attack for this question.", "short_title": "Attacks causes 5+ Israeli casualties or shelter order by March 1?", "post_id": 41516, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769131922.345157, "end_time": 1770925200.927, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769131922.345157, "end_time": 1770925200.927, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3931645598679108 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 1.2312960586351767, 0.7490672709776599, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Israel has faced recent attacks from multiple actors including Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Iran. The conflict that began in October 2023 has seen periodic escalations including:\n\n* Large-scale rocket barrages from Gaza and Lebanon\n* Iranian direct strikes in April 2024 (over 300 projectiles, mostly intercepted)\n* Ongoing Houthi missile and drone attacks\n* Targeted assassinations and retaliatory strikes\n\nWhile Israel's multi-layered air defense systems (Iron Dome, David's Sling, Arrow) intercept most incoming projectiles, attacks can still cause casualties, damage infrastructure, and trigger nationwide alerts requiring civilians to shelter. Ben Gurion Airport has occasionally suspended operations during major attack waves." }, { "id": 41514, "title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?", "short_title": "Will the US or Denmark confirm a US offer to buy Greenland before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US or Denmark confirm a US offer to buy Greenland before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-or-denmark-confirm-a-us-offer-to-buy-greenland-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-09T00:06:32.474221Z", "published_at": "2026-01-13T01:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:04.850186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-13T01:18:29.297335Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:05.073766Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:05.073766Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41258, "title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark?", "created_at": "2026-01-09T00:06:32.474617Z", "open_time": "2026-01-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T01:18:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T01:18:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "ABC News: [Rubio says Trump wants to buy Greenland while White House dangles military option](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rubio-trump-buy-greenland-trump-push-military-option/story?id=128994685)\n\n> Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Capitol Hill earlier this week that the U.S. is seeking to purchase Greenland, sources familiar with the matter confirmed to ABC News.\n\n> Rubio told reporters after a briefing Wednesday that buying the territory has always been President Donald Trump's intent all along.\n\n> \"Well, that's always been the president's intent from the very beginning. He said it very early on. I mean, this is not new. He talked about it in his first term, and he's not the first U.S. president that has examined or looked at how could we acquire Greenland? There's an interest there,\" Rubio told reporters.\n\nSee also CNN: [The US has tried to acquire Greenland before – and failed](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/politics/us-greenland-trump-denmark-history-hnk)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before May 1, 2026, the government of either Denmark or the United States (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions)) publicly announces or acknowledges that the US has made an offer to purchase Greenland from Denmark. ", "fine_print": "An \"offer\" is defined as a formal proposal of monetary or any other consideration (including trades) by the US that, if accepted by Denmark, would lead to Denmark transferring [sovereignty](https://www.britannica.com/topic/sovereignty) of greater than 50% of the land area of Greenland to the US. \n\nNote that anything other than a purchase of sovereignty (for example a purchase of mineral rights or military base rights) does not count. \n\nStatements such as \"Greenland is not for sale\" do not count; the US must make a formal offer as described above. ", "short_title": "Will the US or Denmark confirm a US offer to buy Greenland before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41514, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769177033.78566, "end_time": 1769403424.362, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769177033.78566, "end_time": 1769403424.362, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5084196758294942 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.619844361430768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008832281468067818, 0.023089329776816443, 0.611571160545551, 0.0, 0.5277841512162016, 0.014358311246418655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899978921399792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04006867348160595, 0.3771993153654676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8384708239380203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4529037759716625, 0.0, 0.027260261306647233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05739703566227289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23202808966568075, 0.0, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 1.398049257348272, 0.0, 0.8895461476317509, 0.02464094517995897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022225972450640584, 0.9214510671663236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13958581768461387, 0.9433465922480667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0741010729489044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2054301628143326, 0.9078099888068396, 0.08734309772970561, 1.0123495699841558, 0.0, 0.34906719769614464, 0.0, 0.0, 1.173851843291843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33349792746014206, 0.0, 0.3154269421743897, 0.0, 0.09467292063321112, 0.4827205360804419, 0.0, 0.48940925078388336, 0.0, 0.15045047261877945, 0.13307208562923592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000227009300229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6677453139281696 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 193, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News: [Rubio says Trump wants to buy Greenland while White House dangles military option](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rubio-trump-buy-greenland-trump-push-military-option/story?id=128994685)\n\n> Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers during a classified briefing on Capitol Hill earlier this week that the U.S. is seeking to purchase Greenland, sources familiar with the matter confirmed to ABC News.\n\n> Rubio told reporters after a briefing Wednesday that buying the territory has always been President Donald Trump's intent all along.\n\n> \"Well, that's always been the president's intent from the very beginning. He said it very early on. I mean, this is not new. He talked about it in his first term, and he's not the first U.S. president that has examined or looked at how could we acquire Greenland? There's an interest there,\" Rubio told reporters.\n\nSee also CNN: [The US has tried to acquire Greenland before – and failed](https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/politics/us-greenland-trump-denmark-history-hnk)" }, { "id": 41508, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "url_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "slug": "cp-beats-nathan-young-in-the-spring-2026-cup", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T19:10:17.611899Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T18:15:23Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:14:12.825013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T18:17:55.673692Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:24:10.342932Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:24:10.342932Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41255, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T19:10:17.612337Z", "open_time": "2026-01-14T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at the conclusion of the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026, the Community Prediction has a greater Total Score than Nathan Young in the tournament leaderboard.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve only after all other Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 questions have resolved and will not be included in the scoring used to determine whether the Community Prediction outperformed Nathan Young.", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "post_id": 41508, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769173471.58337, "end_time": 1769561244.354, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769173471.58337, "end_time": 1769561244.354, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7207450313939007 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006090527921295049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4108338431275717, 0.0, 0.39047523280790847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03450157101588733, 0.0, 0.03198265751660178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003585222781177416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21987004191048845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6049683567484753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308999506477417, 0.003974469316782441, 0.1731168032924276, 0.00018674127829225928, 0.0, 0.24717103491016296, 0.4936749097896945, 0.005493616612509603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6814974078359912, 0.0, 0.012799764914942113, 1.063876272886732, 0.0, 0.17482676142667128, 0.2072457012947375, 0.15320757229807203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007681136336700427, 0.002803478323472846, 0.7002280305855083, 0.0, 1.3232869767222815, 0.538648546000909, 0.38882929505813285, 1.0038864331210615, 0.737388576298566, 1.277425704570747, 0.7137759477855655, 0.05345408658919182, 0.14965501130162137, 0.8423995398141404, 0.30720929159872234, 1.1670498256941053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8089643131691242, 0.6660063962945096, 1.5630188572285428, 0.02340040377087851, 0.06588199375352612, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.030820896769720014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.064683808759833, 0.5218803817399905 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 267, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets." }, { "id": 41502, "title": "Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-gain-sovereignty-over-any-part-of-greenland-in-2026", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T09:42:05.695474Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T07:46:01Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T08:21:07.167578Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T07:46:21.913328Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-10T07:46:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 117, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41231, "title": "Will the United States gain formal sovereignty over any part of Greenland during 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T09:42:05.695925Z", "open_time": "2026-01-10T07:46:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-14T07:46:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-14T07:46:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n\n> In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n\n> “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, at least one of the following occur:\n\n1. The United States controls Greenland and any part of Greenland comes under formal sovereignty of the United States, defined as the US government enacting a statute that declares 1% or more of the land area of Greenland to under the sovereignty of the United States. \n2. A binding agreement which grants the United States sovereignty over 1% or more of the land area of Greenland, even if implementation is pending, is formally agreed upon by the U.S government and either the Government of Denmark and/or the Government of Greenland.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the US gain sovereignty over any part of Greenland in 2026?", "post_id": 41502, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769155812.922642, "end_time": 1770727369.45, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769155812.922642, "end_time": 1770727369.45, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.26775723611738467 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8939293835768736, 1.1963694819494022, 0.316899155540842, 0.002471063701326922, 0.374729371108874, 1.2726766391466589, 0.6488070395258885, 1.647377350840836, 0.5302642078787889, 0.37611615647163604, 1.1574294889946974, 0.3205598636954784, 0.9761848925037818, 0.16082722821376022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010622427676839134, 0.1158812998621877, 0.0, 0.05502211182479832, 0.9999147758061626, 0.0, 0.6193781892023814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058716270115515584, 0.0, 0.15797517387040663, 0.5813610197250073, 0.0, 0.06143757810139316, 0.060623639087390144, 0.0, 0.0007369602243589552, 0.0, 0.5061363231361982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00279130310708259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16714662885255707, 0.0, 0.01753022629147086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016250367944418115, 0.0, 1.450729656707801, 0.0, 0.650426169160256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0139266081319424, 0.00026717985576411174, 0.0, 0.021896605555686482, 0.010109135876761816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03584292707174096, 0.9102163069494484, 0.0, 0.05268403279510001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1016766910041003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3041466564029139 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[White House says using US military is ‘always an option’ for seizing Greenland](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/06/trump-greenland-control-us-military):\n\n> In January 2026, the White House stated that using the US military to acquire Greenland was “always an option,” prompting strong pushback from Denmark, Greenland, and European leaders. Greenland’s government has repeatedly stated that it does not wish to become part of the United States.\n\n> “President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region. The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement." }, { "id": 41501, "title": "Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?", "short_title": "China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?", "url_title": "China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?", "slug": "china-1-for-japan-visitors-in-jan-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T05:33:37.030025Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:56:47.700236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T16:02:19.598641Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-17T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 415, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:28:26.929680Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:28:26.929680Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41230, "title": "Will Japan receive more foreign visitors from China than from any other country during January 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T05:33:37.030418Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-18T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-17T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since 2010, Japan has experienced a [dramatic increase](https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/) in tourism, with the number of tourists increasing every year from 2010-2019. Following dramatic declines during COVID, tourism numbers once again reached a peak during 2024, with Jan-Nov 2025 numbers indicating a \\~13% rise during the year.\n\nChina has consistently been one of the top countries visitors to Japan originate from, leading in 2015-2019 and in 2024-2025. Although tourism has benefited Japan's economy, it is a controversial issue in the country, with many considering the country to be suffering from [overtourism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overtourism).\n\nDuring late 2025, China and Japan entered a [diplomatic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis) following comments made by Japan's newly selected nationalist Prime Minister [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi). After further diplomatic protests, China issued a [travel advisory](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3333125/chinas-travel-warnings-japan-evoke-mixed-reactions-home), warning its people not to visit Japan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the country with the highest number of visitor arrivals to Japan during January 2026 is China, according to the [Japan National Tourism Organization](https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/#graph--latest--figures)", "fine_print": "If the JNTO data for January 2026 is unavailable before March 16, 2026, Metaculus might use alternative [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or **annul** this question.\n\nVisitors from Hong Kong will not be counted for the purposes of this question, as they are listed separately by the JNTO.", "short_title": "China #1 for Japan visitors in Jan 2026?", "post_id": 41501, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 699, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2010, Japan has experienced a [dramatic increase](https://statistics.jnto.go.jp/en/graph/) in tourism, with the number of tourists increasing every year from 2010-2019. Following dramatic declines during COVID, tourism numbers once again reached a peak during 2024, with Jan-Nov 2025 numbers indicating a \\~13% rise during the year.\n\nChina has consistently been one of the top countries visitors to Japan originate from, leading in 2015-2019 and in 2024-2025. Although tourism has benefited Japan's economy, it is a controversial issue in the country, with many considering the country to be suffering from [overtourism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overtourism).\n\nDuring late 2025, China and Japan entered a [diplomatic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_China%E2%80%93Japan_diplomatic_crisis) following comments made by Japan's newly selected nationalist Prime Minister [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi). After further diplomatic protests, China issued a [travel advisory](https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3333125/chinas-travel-warnings-japan-evoke-mixed-reactions-home), warning its people not to visit Japan." }, { "id": 41500, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Atlas be released for Windows by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Atlas be released for Windows by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "will-atlas-be-released-for-windows-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-07T01:52:26.162556Z", "published_at": "2026-01-19T15:59:02Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:08:39.078048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T16:05:28.615671Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 384, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:28:26.929680Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:28:26.929680Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41229, "title": "Will OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas browser be released for Windows before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-07T01:52:26.163011Z", "open_time": "2026-01-19T16:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T15:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On October 21, 2025, OpenAI [released](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/) a web browser built around ChatGPT, called [ChatGPT Atlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT_Atlas):\n\n> With Atlas, ChatGPT can come with you anywhere across the web—helping you in the window right where you are, understanding what you’re trying to do, and completing tasks for you, all without copying and pasting or leaving the page.\n\nEarly reviews suggest that Atlas [shows promise](https://www.pcmag.com/news/chatgpts-atlas-browser-shows-potential-but-its-no-chrome-killeryet) but is not yet worth switching to. And some have suggested that it is [particularly vulnerable to hacking](https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/27/atlas_vulnerability_memory_injection/).\n\nIn releasing Atlas, OpenAI [opened another front](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/21/openai-launches-an-ai-powered-browser-chatgpt-atlas/) in its rivalry with Google, who makes not only ChatGPT competitor [Gemini](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Gemini) but also [Chrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome), by far [the world's most popular web browser](https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share). Atlas was initially made available only for macOS, but OpenAI has promised that \"Experiences for Windows, iOS, and Android are coming soon.\" That will be a must if OpenAI wants to take a chunk out of Chrome's market share.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026 ET, OpenAI publicly releases ChatGPT Atlas for Windows.", "fine_print": "An invite-only or otherwise individually selected rollout will not count as a public release. Only releases available to the general public will qualify.\n\nA product by a different name will nevertheless count as \"ChatGPT Atlas\" if it is (1) a web browser that features ChatGPT, (2) released by OpenAI, and (3) treated by OpenAI as equivalent or a successor to ChatGPT Atlas.", "short_title": "Will Atlas be released for Windows by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41500, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 613, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 21, 2025, OpenAI [released](https://openai.com/index/introducing-chatgpt-atlas/) a web browser built around ChatGPT, called [ChatGPT Atlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT_Atlas):\n\n> With Atlas, ChatGPT can come with you anywhere across the web—helping you in the window right where you are, understanding what you’re trying to do, and completing tasks for you, all without copying and pasting or leaving the page.\n\nEarly reviews suggest that Atlas [shows promise](https://www.pcmag.com/news/chatgpts-atlas-browser-shows-potential-but-its-no-chrome-killeryet) but is not yet worth switching to. And some have suggested that it is [particularly vulnerable to hacking](https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/27/atlas_vulnerability_memory_injection/).\n\nIn releasing Atlas, OpenAI [opened another front](https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/21/openai-launches-an-ai-powered-browser-chatgpt-atlas/) in its rivalry with Google, who makes not only ChatGPT competitor [Gemini](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Gemini) but also [Chrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Chrome), by far [the world's most popular web browser](https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share). Atlas was initially made available only for macOS, but OpenAI has promised that \"Experiences for Windows, iOS, and Android are coming soon.\" That will be a must if OpenAI wants to take a chunk out of Chrome's market share." }, { "id": 41499, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-unga-condemn-the-us-operation-in-venezuela-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T21:29:51.999995Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T22:12:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T01:54:14.098690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T22:13:00.186736Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:05.073766Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:05.073766Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41228, "title": "Will the UN General Assembly adopt a resolution condemning the US operation in Venezuela before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T21:29:52.000355Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T22:12:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, the United Nations General Assembly adopts a [resolution](https://research.un.org/en/docs/ga/quick/regular/80) that according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) condemns or deplores a US operation in Venezuela.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will the UNGA condemn the US operation in Venezuela before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769133243.271891, "end_time": 1769201901.653, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.174 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769133243.271891, "end_time": 1769201901.653, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.174 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.14802014165417568 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7892529026759081, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.3625483160487359, 0.0, 0.44433735784817074, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 1.2981611153017392, 0.3015863124192444, 0.8094266714872985, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0902215738421042, 0.1819860254596161, 0.5667911627135067, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04611357990309599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 303, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (January 5, 2026) [At the U.N., Even Allies Condemn U.S. Action in Venezuela](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/world/americas/un-security-council.html)\n\n> The United States was condemned at an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council on Monday for what even its staunch allies called a violation of international law in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and the military incursion into a sovereign state.\n\n> The deputy French ambassador denounced the assault and Mr. Maduro’s apprehension, saying it “chips away at the very foundation of international order.”\n\n> The U.N.’s top official, Secretary General António Guterres, said the Trump administration had violated the U.N. charter\n\nMike Waltz, the US ambassador to the UN:\n\n> ...defended his country’s ouster of Mr. Maduro, saying Monday that there was “no war against Venezuela or its people” and called Mr. Maduro a narcotics fugitive not a head of state.\n\n> “We are not occupying a country. This was a law enforcement operation,” the ambassador, Mike Waltz, said during the council’s emergency meeting. He argued that the capture of Mr. Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on drug charges made Latin America safer.\n\nIn 1989 the UN General Assembly passed Resolution [44/240](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/44/240) condemning the American [capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama) of Panama's ruler, Manuel Noriega. In 1983, the UNGA passed Resolution [38/7](https://docs.un.org/en/A/RES/38/7) condemning the US [invasion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada) of Grenada. " }, { "id": 41497, "title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig that US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033?", "short_title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig about GDP growth?", "url_title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig about GDP growth?", "slug": "will-sam-hammond-win-his-bet-with-john-luttig-about-gdp-growth", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T19:37:28.974599Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T19:54:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-18T07:54:08.624023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T19:55:45.915474Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32929, "name": "2026-2035 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2035_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41226, "title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig that US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T19:37:28.974980Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-07T19:54:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-07T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2033-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2033-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[According to Samuel Hammond](https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/2008295622927909232), Senior Economist at [Foundation for American Innovation](https://www.thefai.org/), Hammond agreed to a bet with John Luttig, a partner at [Founders Fund](https://foundersfund.com/), on June 6, 2023, regarding economic growth in the United States. Hammond bets that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth basis, while Luttig bets against. Hammond [recently outlined](/) his expectations of faster growth due to AI in the next decade, a position he has [held since around the time the bet was made](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/08/manhattan-project-for-ai-safety-00095779).\n\nLuttig has written pieces from the [time of the bet](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hallucinations-in-ai) and [recently](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hypercapitalism-and-the-ai-talent) suggesting that AI is likely to continue advancing and could lead to significant changes, though has generally taken a more cautious and uncertain position around its effects and trajectory. No public statements by Luttig explicitly addressing the bet were identified.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Samuel Hammond wins his bet with John Luttig that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth rate basis. The question resolves as **Yes** if Hammond and Luttig mutually agree that Hammond won, and as **No** if they mutually agree that Luttig won. If they appoint a third party to adjudicate, it will resolve according to the resulting decision.\n\nIn the event the bet is not publicly resolved within 6 months of the relevant data becoming available, or in the event one or both parties refuse to acknowledge a winner or void the bet, Metaculus may resolve this question according to the published data.", "fine_print": "Real US GDP growth of >5% on on a 5-year CAGR basis between 2028-2033 is equivalent to the US GDP increasing by 27.628% in real terms from 2028 to 2033.", "short_title": "Will Sam Hammond win his bet with John Luttig about GDP growth?", "post_id": 41497, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768722838.357941, "end_time": 1776193115.214, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768722838.357941, "end_time": 1776193115.214, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.3232071634348864 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5552725971300316, 0.0, 1.60956401362689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Samuel Hammond](https://x.com/hamandcheese/status/2008295622927909232), Senior Economist at [Foundation for American Innovation](https://www.thefai.org/), Hammond agreed to a bet with John Luttig, a partner at [Founders Fund](https://foundersfund.com/), on June 6, 2023, regarding economic growth in the United States. Hammond bets that real US GDP growth will average above 5% from 2028 to 2033 on a compound annual growth basis, while Luttig bets against. Hammond [recently outlined](/) his expectations of faster growth due to AI in the next decade, a position he has [held since around the time the bet was made](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/05/08/manhattan-project-for-ai-safety-00095779).\n\nLuttig has written pieces from the [time of the bet](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hallucinations-in-ai) and [recently](https://blog.johnluttig.com/p/hypercapitalism-and-the-ai-talent) suggesting that AI is likely to continue advancing and could lead to significant changes, though has generally taken a more cautious and uncertain position around its effects and trajectory. No public statements by Luttig explicitly addressing the bet were identified." }, { "id": 41490, "title": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?", "short_title": "Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?", "url_title": "Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?", "slug": "vivek-ramaswamy-wins-ohio-governorship-in-2026", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T13:08:56.093562Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T05:03:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T02:14:56.001153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-09T05:04:17.256730Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-10T05:03:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41219, "title": "Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T13:08:56.093997Z", "open_time": "2026-01-10T05:03:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-14T05:03:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-14T05:03:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The [2026 Ohio gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Ohio. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term.\n\nOnce considered a key battleground state and bellwether, Ohio has shifted significantly to the right in the last decade. At the state level, Republicans hold [a government trifecta and a triplex](https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas_and_triplexes), and incumbent governor DeWine was re-elected in 2022 by a 25-point margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump carried the state by 11.2 points, the widest margin of victory for any presidential nominee in the state since 1984. \n\n[Vivek Ramaswamy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy?useskin=vector), born August 9, 1985, is an American billionaire entrepreneur and politician who was a biotechnology executive before running in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. He withdrew from the race after finishing 4th in the [Iowa caucuses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses) and endorsed Donald Trump, who went on to win the Republican nomination and the 2024 presidential election. Ramaswamy was thereafter appointed by Trump to be a leader of the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk, though [he left the effort days into Trump's term](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/vivek-ramaswamy-quits-doge-elon-musk), apparently at Musk's behest.\n\nRamaswamy [announced in February 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86pwpy7vx6o) that he would seek the office of Governor of Ohio in the 2026 election, and was [endorsed by Trump ](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114062254652077484) on the same day. In May 2025, he was [endorsed by the Republican Party of Ohio.](https://apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-98be2b8f1a94e99f14b370e145e2939c)\n\nHowever, despite these endorsements and the strength of the Republican Party in the state in recent years, recent [polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election#General_election) has found the race very close, with Ramaswamy only marginally leading potential Democratic nominee Amy Acton. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Vivek Ramaswamy wins the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election, according to either certified results provided by state election officials, or a consensus of credible media reports.", "fine_print": "If Vivek Ramaswamy withdraws from the race and due to legal timing can no longer re-enter and appear on the ballot, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nIn the event of a disputed result, the winner of the election will be considered to be the person who is first sworn in as governor following the election, regardless of any court rulings.", "short_title": "Vivek Ramaswamy wins Ohio governorship in 2026?", "post_id": 41490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768961685.661307, "end_time": 1770702344.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768961685.661307, "end_time": 1770702344.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.598407892870889 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42306973344707377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16528349819318522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.945406816721863, 1.0812203149046484, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 1.4161622869304282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8934965775142893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2026 Ohio gubernatorial election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the next governor of Ohio. The primary elections will take place on May 5, 2026. Incumbent Republican Governor Mike DeWine is term-limited and cannot seek a third consecutive term.\n\nOnce considered a key battleground state and bellwether, Ohio has shifted significantly to the right in the last decade. At the state level, Republicans hold [a government trifecta and a triplex](https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas_and_triplexes), and incumbent governor DeWine was re-elected in 2022 by a 25-point margin. In the 2024 presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump carried the state by 11.2 points, the widest margin of victory for any presidential nominee in the state since 1984. \n\n[Vivek Ramaswamy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivek_Ramaswamy?useskin=vector), born August 9, 1985, is an American billionaire entrepreneur and politician who was a biotechnology executive before running in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries. He withdrew from the race after finishing 4th in the [Iowa caucuses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses) and endorsed Donald Trump, who went on to win the Republican nomination and the 2024 presidential election. Ramaswamy was thereafter appointed by Trump to be a leader of the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk, though [he left the effort days into Trump's term](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/21/vivek-ramaswamy-quits-doge-elon-musk), apparently at Musk's behest.\n\nRamaswamy [announced in February 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c86pwpy7vx6o) that he would seek the office of Governor of Ohio in the 2026 election, and was [endorsed by Trump ](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114062254652077484) on the same day. In May 2025, he was [endorsed by the Republican Party of Ohio.](https://apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-98be2b8f1a94e99f14b370e145e2939c)\n\nHowever, despite these endorsements and the strength of the Republican Party in the state in recent years, recent [polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ohio_gubernatorial_election#General_election) has found the race very close, with Ramaswamy only marginally leading potential Democratic nominee Amy Acton. " }, { "id": 41489, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-venezuela-announce-a-presidential-election-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T12:48:39.084945Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T14:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-22T20:04:28.607465Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T14:03:57.837188Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:05.073766Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:04:05.073766Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } }, "question": { "id": 41216, "title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T12:48:39.085282Z", "open_time": "2026-01-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T14:02:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, Venezuela officially announces a new presidential election. In order to count, the announcement must be made by a person or entity with the legal authority to do so, the announcement must name a specific election date, and voting must take place before January 1, 2027. ", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769092116.752, "end_time": 1769386326.364, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.146 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769092116.752, "end_time": 1769386326.364, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.146 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.854, 0.146 ], "means": [ 0.17783851314959098 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 1.0663922342734913, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.8727893774349618, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807190051633872, 1.674051524911142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21067209183334984, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters: [Maduro opponent Machado vows to return to Venezuela, wants election](https://www.tbsnews.net/world/maduro-opponent-machado-vows-return-venezuela-wants-election-1327666)\n\n> Venezuela's main opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has vowed to return home quickly, praising US President Donald Trump for toppling her enemy Nicolas Maduro and declaring her movement ready to win a free election.\n\n> \"We believe that this transition should move forward,\" she told Fox News in an interview late on Monday. \"We won an election (in 2024) by a landslide under fraudulent conditions. In free and fair elections, we will win over 90% of the votes.\"\n\n> Machado said she had not spoken to Trump since October 10, when the Nobel award was announced. He has said the United States needs to help address Venezuela's problems before any new elections, calling a 30-day timeline for a vote unrealistic.\n\n> \"We have to fix the country first. You can't have an election. There's no way the people could even vote,\" Trump told NBC.\n\nSee also from Wikipedia: [Next Venezuelan Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Venezuelan_presidential_election)" }, { "id": 41485, "title": "Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?", "short_title": "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?", "url_title": "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?", "slug": "2nd-us-intervention-in-venezuela-by-april-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-06T01:56:22.708249Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T14:35:16.395980Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-07T16:53:31.962247Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 275, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:24:10.342932Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:24:10.342932Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41209, "title": "Will the United States intervene militarily in Venezuela again before May 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-06T01:56:22.708620Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-08T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n\nIn the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 7, 2026, but before May 1, 2026, the United States carries out an attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n* For the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n* The peaceful presence of U.S. troops or personnel in Venezuela with the assent of Venezuela's government will not cause this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n* The U.S. need not initiate a conflict in order for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "2nd US intervention in Venezuela by April 2026?", "post_id": 41485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769175249.471241, "end_time": 1769271586.867, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769175249.471241, "end_time": 1769271586.867, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21701745982592832 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43648255547273995, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8949066040431718, 0.0, 0.481992103752212, 0.0, 0.30267947444340315, 0.2262589275082417, 0.05837575254652206, 3.2569265009532953, 0.001740544270859703, 0.7800127663166148, 0.0670793202802481, 0.7717454703542961, 2.7686810750701043, 0.2689339524956369, 0.04393250091511848, 0.9633623048686247, 0.05070885534537084, 2.825508475023233, 1.6020919602256556, 0.6334104087310369, 0.029923751582319642, 0.03603697499775589, 3.4384404576736918, 0.06175873171719222, 0.1333222306685048, 0.3152062685003979, 0.0, 0.5413232211238764, 0.0, 0.00025527801696022414, 0.20060866215623183, 0.0, 1.1708936993880958, 0.11499050545833103, 0.7421819837045878, 0.16246058803795355, 0.0, 0.3050038429491797, 0.1923796186686118, 0.10073798945101643, 0.2468103858825761, 0.000307377356416184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08236980472719405, 0.02692269695433954, 3.542704041450283e-05, 0.3847583695312728, 0.0, 0.5471956103773692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00015550565772273764, 0.0, 0.0035978960567099668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16911869782326358, 0.0, 0.0003678608866185158, 0.003830882953295216, 8.94331374807683e-05, 0.005388632505807242, 0.0, 0.0005184536295305193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007149665370051876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043781764433923086, 0.0, 1.4884796672722999e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.172970427191725 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 873, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 3, 2026, the United States launched a [surprise attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela) on Venezuela, bombing military bases and infrastructure and capturing and removing President Nicolás Maduro and his wife from the country. This attack was the apparent culmination of a [months-long buildup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_military_buildup_in_the_Caribbean_during_Operation_Southern_Spear) of U.S. naval forces in the Caribbean Sea which included multiple airstrikes on boats off the coast of Venezuela, allegedly piloted by drug traffickers.\n\nIn the aftermath of the attack, there has been some confusion about the U.S. government's future intentions with respect to Venezuela. U.S. President Donald Trump has stated that [the U.S. was going to \"run\" Venezuela](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/03/trump-venezuela-oil-industry) but also indicated that Venezuela's Vice President, Delcy Rodríguez, would assume the presidency. (Rodríguez, for her part, denounced the attack and declared that Maduro remained the lawful President.) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/04/us/politics/rubio-military-quarantine-venezuela-oil.html) that the U.S. would be involved in governing or occupying Venezuela, indicating that the U.S. simply intended to continue to put financial pressure on Venezuela's oil industry. Trump has also asserted that Rodríguez would cooperate with the U.S. government, stating \"we are ready to stage a second and much larger attack if we need to do so.\"" }, { "id": 41481, "title": "Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?", "short_title": "Joe Biden's autopen orders declared 'null and void' before 2026 midterms?", "url_title": "Joe Biden's autopen orders declared 'null and void' before 2026 midterms?", "slug": "joe-bidens-autopen-orders-declared-null-and-void-before-2026-midterms", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:27.326678Z", "published_at": "2026-01-08T04:02:54Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T00:57:47.734277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-08T04:04:12.780097Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-09T04:02:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41205, "title": "Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?", "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:27.327068Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T04:02:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-13T04:02:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-13T04:02:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?*\n\nAn [<u>autopen</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/29/what-is-an-autopen-and-why-cant-trump-stop-talking-about-it) is a mechanical device historically used by U.S. presidents to replicate signatures on official documents when the president is unavailable to sign each individually. [<u>Presidential autopens have been used across multiple administrations to sign executive orders</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/17/nx-s1-5330709/autopen-biden-pardon-void), proclamations, and other official acts, and longstanding legal guidance indicates that a president does not need to physically sign a document themselves for it to be valid so long as the signature reflects the president’s authorization.\n\nIn late 2025, former President Donald Trump publicly declared via social media that all executive orders, pardons, and other actions signed using an autopen under Joe Biden’s administration were [<u>“null and void” and “of no further force or effect.”</u>](https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/34128?) The claim was echoed by Republican lawmakers and a [<u>House Oversight Committee report</u>](https://news.ssbcrack.com/house-oversight-committee-urges-doj-investigation-into-bidens-autopen-usage-questions-legitimacy-of-executive-actions/) asserting that Biden’s alleged cognitive decline and use of the autopen could undermine the legitimacy of his actions.\n\nLegal experts and nonpartisan fact-checkers have countered these claims, noting there is [<u>no constitutional mechanism for one president to unilaterally declare another president’s actions void simply because an autopen was used</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-claim-that-biden-pardons-are-void-because-he-used-an-autopen). The Constitution and longstanding practice empower the president to [<u>issue pardons</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46179) and [<u>take executive actions</u>](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-1/ALDE_00000243/); courts have generally held that mechanical signatures are valid if the underlying decision was the president’s.\n\nAs of late 2025, [<u>Republican calls for investigations or legal reviews</u>](https://www.wbbjtv.com/2025/10/28/republicans-send-biden-autopen-report-to-the-justice-department-urging-further-investigation/) by the Department of Justice and other officials have not resulted in any judicial rulings declaring Biden’s autopen-signed orders invalid. Whether any such legal challenge will reach a court with jurisdiction to consider the constitutional validity of these actions — and whether a court would rule they are “null and void” — remains unresolved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, on or before November 4, 2026:\n\nA federal district or appellate court issues a final ruling that at least one specific executive action signed by Joe Biden using an autopen are legally invalid, such that they are formally declared null and void under law.", "fine_print": "If the ruling is subject to appeal, this question will wait until November 4, 2026 to resolve. \n\nIf the ruling is stayed or reversed, this question will not resolved based upon it.", "short_title": "Joe Biden's autopen orders declared 'null and void' before 2026 midterms?", "post_id": 41481, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768784256.856208, "end_time": 1770641139.459, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768784256.856208, "end_time": 1770641139.459, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06359150134601346 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.8245534804834481, 0.362543115534516, 0.862882435577901, 0.29286789626133847, 0.6583274883502067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Joe Biden's autopen orders be declared 'null and void' before the 2026 midterms?*\n\nAn [<u>autopen</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/nov/29/what-is-an-autopen-and-why-cant-trump-stop-talking-about-it) is a mechanical device historically used by U.S. presidents to replicate signatures on official documents when the president is unavailable to sign each individually. [<u>Presidential autopens have been used across multiple administrations to sign executive orders</u>](https://www.npr.org/2025/03/17/nx-s1-5330709/autopen-biden-pardon-void), proclamations, and other official acts, and longstanding legal guidance indicates that a president does not need to physically sign a document themselves for it to be valid so long as the signature reflects the president’s authorization.\n\nIn late 2025, former President Donald Trump publicly declared via social media that all executive orders, pardons, and other actions signed using an autopen under Joe Biden’s administration were [<u>“null and void” and “of no further force or effect.”</u>](https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/34128?) The claim was echoed by Republican lawmakers and a [<u>House Oversight Committee report</u>](https://news.ssbcrack.com/house-oversight-committee-urges-doj-investigation-into-bidens-autopen-usage-questions-legitimacy-of-executive-actions/) asserting that Biden’s alleged cognitive decline and use of the autopen could undermine the legitimacy of his actions.\n\nLegal experts and nonpartisan fact-checkers have countered these claims, noting there is [<u>no constitutional mechanism for one president to unilaterally declare another president’s actions void simply because an autopen was used</u>](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-claim-that-biden-pardons-are-void-because-he-used-an-autopen). The Constitution and longstanding practice empower the president to [<u>issue pardons</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R46179) and [<u>take executive actions</u>](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/essay/artII-1/ALDE_00000243/); courts have generally held that mechanical signatures are valid if the underlying decision was the president’s.\n\nAs of late 2025, [<u>Republican calls for investigations or legal reviews</u>](https://www.wbbjtv.com/2025/10/28/republicans-send-biden-autopen-report-to-the-justice-department-urging-further-investigation/) by the Department of Justice and other officials have not resulted in any judicial rulings declaring Biden’s autopen-signed orders invalid. Whether any such legal challenge will reach a court with jurisdiction to consider the constitutional validity of these actions — and whether a court would rule they are “null and void” — remains unresolved." }, { "id": 41480, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional?", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?", "url_title": "Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?", "slug": "will-scotus-hold-race-conscious-districting-unconstitutional", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:29:42.934607Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T02:09:54Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-16T22:01:11.213712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-07T02:11:20.048513Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-25T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-08T02:09:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T10:48:15.342997Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T10:48:15.342997Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41204, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais hold that race-conscious districting is unconstitutional?", "created_at": "2026-01-05T19:29:42.935073Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T02:09:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T02:09:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-12T02:09:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-25T16:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-25T16:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the U.S. Supreme Court overturn provisions of the Voting Rights Act as part of Louisiana v. Callais?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-Supreme-Court-overturn-provisions-in-the-Voting-Rights-Act-Louisiana-v-Callais)\n\nThe [<u>Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA)</u>](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act) is a foundational U.S. civil rights law designed to prevent racial discrimination in voting. [<u>Section 2 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/section-2-voting-rights-act) prohibits voting practices or districting plans that result in minority voters having less opportunity than others to elect representatives of their choice, regardless of the intent behind the law or map. Unlike the VRA’s preclearance regime, Section 2 applies nationwide and has remained the primary enforcement mechanism against discriminatory election maps following later court rulings. \n\nThe Supreme Court has narrowed portions of the VRA over the past decade. In [*<u>Shelby County v. Holder</u>*](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96) (2013), the Court invalidated the coverage formula that determined which jurisdictions were subject to federal preclearance, [<u>effectively suspending Section 5 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-section-5-voting-rights-act). More recently, in [*<u>Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-1257_g204.pdf) (2021), the Court adopted a more restrictive framework for evaluating Section 2 claims related to voting rules, emphasizing state interests and historical practice. \n\nHowever, the Court appeared to reaffirm Section 2’s application to redistricting in [*<u>Allen v. Milligan</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf) (2023), holding that Alabama’s congressional map likely violated the VRA by failing to include an additional majority-Black district. The decision [<u>rejected arguments that Section 2 requires a race-neutral approach and reaffirmed longstanding precedent allowing race to be considered when remedying vote dilution.</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-rights-act-persists-so-do-its-adversaries#:~:text=But%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20stepped,protections%20for%20voters%20of%20color.)\n\n[*<u>Louisiana v. Callais</u>*](https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/louisiana-v-callais/) stems from [<u>post-2020 census redistricting in Louisiana</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Louisiana_after_the_2020_census). After lower federal courts found that the state’s original congressional map likely violated Section 2 by containing only one majority-Black district despite the state's sizable Black population, Louisiana enacted a revised map creating a second such district. A group of voters then challenged the new map, arguing that it relied impermissibly on race and violated the Equal Protection Clause. The Supreme Court [<u>agreed to hear the case</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais/), placing the continued scope of Section 2 squarely before the Court.\n\n[<u>Legal analysts note that the case could clarify or significantly alter the balance between the VRA and constitutional limits on race-based districting</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/15/politics/voting-rights-act-supreme-court-takeaways). Depending on how broadly the Court rules, the decision could [<u>either reaffirm Section 2’s role in redistricting or substantially limit its future application nationwide</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/10/court-appears-ready-to-curtail-major-provision-of-the-voting-rights-act/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the U.S. Supreme Court's final merits decision in [*Louisiana v. Callais*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24-109.html) holds that race-conscious districting, even when done to comply with Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, is unconstitutional.\n\nThis question will resolve as No if the Supreme Court's decision upholds the challenged Louisiana map or otherwise resolves the case without holding that race-conscious districting is impermissible.\n\nIf the Supreme Court does not issue a merits decision in *Louisiana v. Callais* before January 1, 2027, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will SCOTUS hold race-conscious districting unconstitutional?", "post_id": 41480, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768600860.306651, "end_time": 1769205660.194, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768600860.306651, "end_time": 1769205660.194, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.443715423970427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the U.S. Supreme Court overturn provisions of the Voting Rights Act as part of Louisiana v. Callais?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-Supreme-Court-overturn-provisions-in-the-Voting-Rights-Act-Louisiana-v-Callais)\n\nThe [<u>Voting Rights Act of 1965 (VRA)</u>](https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/voting-rights-act) is a foundational U.S. civil rights law designed to prevent racial discrimination in voting. [<u>Section 2 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/section-2-voting-rights-act) prohibits voting practices or districting plans that result in minority voters having less opportunity than others to elect representatives of their choice, regardless of the intent behind the law or map. Unlike the VRA’s preclearance regime, Section 2 applies nationwide and has remained the primary enforcement mechanism against discriminatory election maps following later court rulings. \n\nThe Supreme Court has narrowed portions of the VRA over the past decade. In [*<u>Shelby County v. Holder</u>*](https://www.oyez.org/cases/2012/12-96) (2013), the Court invalidated the coverage formula that determined which jurisdictions were subject to federal preclearance, [<u>effectively suspending Section 5 of the Act</u>](https://www.justice.gov/crt/about-section-5-voting-rights-act). More recently, in [*<u>Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/20pdf/19-1257_g204.pdf) (2021), the Court adopted a more restrictive framework for evaluating Section 2 claims related to voting rules, emphasizing state interests and historical practice. \n\nHowever, the Court appeared to reaffirm Section 2’s application to redistricting in [*<u>Allen v. Milligan</u>*](https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/22pdf/21-1086_1co6.pdf) (2023), holding that Alabama’s congressional map likely violated the VRA by failing to include an additional majority-Black district. The decision [<u>rejected arguments that Section 2 requires a race-neutral approach and reaffirmed longstanding precedent allowing race to be considered when remedying vote dilution.</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-rights-act-persists-so-do-its-adversaries#:~:text=But%20the%20Supreme%20Court%20stepped,protections%20for%20voters%20of%20color.)\n\n[*<u>Louisiana v. Callais</u>*](https://www.naacpldf.org/case-issue/louisiana-v-callais/) stems from [<u>post-2020 census redistricting in Louisiana</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Redistricting_in_Louisiana_after_the_2020_census). After lower federal courts found that the state’s original congressional map likely violated Section 2 by containing only one majority-Black district despite the state's sizable Black population, Louisiana enacted a revised map creating a second such district. A group of voters then challenged the new map, arguing that it relied impermissibly on race and violated the Equal Protection Clause. The Supreme Court [<u>agreed to hear the case</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/cases/case-files/louisiana-v-callais/), placing the continued scope of Section 2 squarely before the Court.\n\n[<u>Legal analysts note that the case could clarify or significantly alter the balance between the VRA and constitutional limits on race-based districting</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/15/politics/voting-rights-act-supreme-court-takeaways). Depending on how broadly the Court rules, the decision could [<u>either reaffirm Section 2’s role in redistricting or substantially limit its future application nationwide</u>](https://www.scotusblog.com/2025/10/court-appears-ready-to-curtail-major-provision-of-the-voting-rights-act/)." }, { "id": 41478, "title": "Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?", "short_title": "Gold rise to $5,000 or more before 2027?", "url_title": "Gold rise to $5,000 or more before 2027?", "slug": "gold-rise-to-5000-or-more-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-05T16:25:20.731989Z", "published_at": "2026-01-06T09:01:10Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T15:17:56.182213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-06T09:01:25.800329Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T09:01:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41202, "title": "Will the price of Gold rise to $5,000 per troy ounce before 2027?", "created_at": "2026-01-05T16:25:20.732447Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T09:01:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T09:01:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T09:01:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Gold is highly popular among precious metals as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a way of diversifying risk, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives. [Gold is viewed as a safe-haven investment and typically acts as a hedge against inflation](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gold-price-silver-whats-behind-the-surge/) and during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty.\n\n[On 26 December 2025](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/should-i-invest-gold-prices-123542208.html), gold (GC=F) hit an all time high of \\$4,549.71 per ounce. \n\n> Gold ([GC=F](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F)) prices extended gains at the start of the year after ending 2025 with a 64% rise, the strongest annual performance since 1979, as investors bet on further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve... The metal has doubled in value from the \\$2,000 level it held two years ago. Since 2000, gold has outperformed global equities, delivering a return of more than 1,200%.\n\nMichael Hsueh, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, now thinks [gold prices could approach \\$5,000 during 2026](https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/gold-price). Whilst [a recent Financial Times survey](https://www.ft.com/content/a2b62f00-3174-4818-9a90-7489fc9be6d8) suggests gold is set to \"extend its historic rally to hit fresh highs in 2026, although analysts expect the metal’s advance to slow after a year of stunning gains\".\n\nAs [Reuters reported on January 5, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-surges-us-capture-venezuela-president-spurs-safe-haven-demand-2026-01-05/), current geopolitical risks may continue to affect the price of gold during 2026.\n\n> Gold rose to a one-week high and nearer its record peak on Monday as safe-haven demand spurred by U.S. strikes in Venezuela added to bullion's appeal, already fuelled by geopolitical tensions and rate cut bets.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, any time before January 1, 2027, the price of gold per troy ounce (GC=F) in U.S dollars is \\$5,000.00 or more, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/).", "fine_print": "The price of gold per troy ounce (GC=F) only has to reach \\$5,000.00 or more at any point in time (e.g. an intraday trading price high) and not exclusively at an open or close price for this question to resolve as Yes.", "short_title": "Gold rise to $5,000 or more before 2027?", "post_id": 41478, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769181465.88587, "end_time": 1770481276.572, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769181465.88587, "end_time": 1770481276.572, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8500541713333948 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0644634174904052, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8944823903749313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.17522973636453743 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gold is highly popular among precious metals as an investment. Investors generally buy gold as a way of diversifying risk, especially through the use of futures contracts and derivatives. [Gold is viewed as a safe-haven investment and typically acts as a hedge against inflation](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gold-price-silver-whats-behind-the-surge/) and during periods of market volatility or economic uncertainty.\n\n[On 26 December 2025](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/should-i-invest-gold-prices-123542208.html), gold (GC=F) hit an all time high of \\$4,549.71 per ounce. \n\n> Gold ([GC=F](https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F)) prices extended gains at the start of the year after ending 2025 with a 64% rise, the strongest annual performance since 1979, as investors bet on further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve... The metal has doubled in value from the \\$2,000 level it held two years ago. Since 2000, gold has outperformed global equities, delivering a return of more than 1,200%.\n\nMichael Hsueh, research analyst at Deutsche Bank, now thinks [gold prices could approach \\$5,000 during 2026](https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/gold/gold-price). Whilst [a recent Financial Times survey](https://www.ft.com/content/a2b62f00-3174-4818-9a90-7489fc9be6d8) suggests gold is set to \"extend its historic rally to hit fresh highs in 2026, although analysts expect the metal’s advance to slow after a year of stunning gains\".\n\nAs [Reuters reported on January 5, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-surges-us-capture-venezuela-president-spurs-safe-haven-demand-2026-01-05/), current geopolitical risks may continue to affect the price of gold during 2026.\n\n> Gold rose to a one-week high and nearer its record peak on Monday as safe-haven demand spurred by U.S. strikes in Venezuela added to bullion's appeal, already fuelled by geopolitical tensions and rate cut bets." }, { "id": 41462, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?", "short_title": "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?", "url_title": "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?", "slug": "khamenei-cease-to-be-irans-supreme-leader-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-04T15:40:03.669033Z", "published_at": "2026-01-07T06:48:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T13:23:22.610977Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-07T06:49:43.378889Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-08T06:48:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41187, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran before 2027?", "created_at": "2026-01-04T15:40:03.669392Z", "open_time": "2026-01-08T06:48:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T06:48:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-12T06:48:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nIdentified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has been closely associated with the expansion of state militarization and the consolidation of power within the office of the Supreme Leader. Khamenei has also faced many protests [during his time as Supreme Leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei). \n\nOn December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n\n[Later in the week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d),\n\n> U.S. President Donald Trump and top Iranian officials exchanged dueling threats Friday as [widening protests](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) swept across parts of the Islamic Republic, further escalating tensions between the countries after [America bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June](https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579).\n\nOn January 3, 2026, [Iran’s Supreme Leader insisted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-nuclear-economy-cf491782ecafdc9098878e5a4e5dc384),\n\n> that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations... the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people, according to human rights activists. \n\n> While it remains unclear how and if Trump will intervene, his comments sparked an immediate, angry response, with officials within the theocracy threatening to target American troops in the Mideast. They also take on new importance after Trump said Saturday that the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President [Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e), a longtime ally of Tehran.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, during 2026 Ali Khamenei ceases to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.", "fine_print": "To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be Supreme Leader or he must cease to exercise the powers of Supreme Leader against his will.\n\nEvents including the government losing control over the country or being held captive by an opposing group will qualify, while withdrawal from duties, such as due to health issues, will not be sufficient.", "short_title": "Khamenei cease to be Iran's Supreme Leader before 2027?", "post_id": 41462, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769174592.130023, "end_time": 1769561939.794, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769174592.130023, "end_time": 1769561939.794, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6212582142504461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10513574165210807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11984158076934844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.16202651506251406, 0.005868104256488185, 0.036486146261818564, 0.0, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014358311246418655, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2631766283674999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008832281468067818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5142368439049506, 0.0, 0.11301916297965986, 0.0, 0.23469212005480183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4529037759716625, 0.027260261306647233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09467292063321112, 0.7562355534672833, 0.01134226073249967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8874636012838582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28540215056739904, 0.7755860211099123, 0.0, 0.3054018648546395, 0.4501985424215085, 0.39508601112968617, 0.675670008085242, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2875954049800227, 0.2665441514110732, 0.9250474682671707, 0.0, 0.04393255368134378, 0.0, 0.7440095530395536, 0.6216380579593116, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 0.13958581768461387, 0.619844361430768, 0.17209720922986665, 0.0, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007745309224094398, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6590390464516561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1675144074915758 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 141, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since June 4, 1989 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86, has been [Supreme Leader of Iran](https://www.leader.ir/en), a position that has been [described by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/country/iran) as having the ultimate power within the country. \n\nIdentified as a pragmatic hardliner, Khamenei sidelined leftist factions, moderate clerics, and political dissidents, while occasionally easing restrictions when the government's stability or legitimacy has been threatened. His leadership has been closely associated with the expansion of state militarization and the consolidation of power within the office of the Supreme Leader. Khamenei has also faced many protests [during his time as Supreme Leader](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei). \n\nOn December 29, 2025, [Iran’s largest protests in three years](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) erupted after [the country’s currency plummeted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-gold-silver-jewelry-sales-israel-war-0e774bc3c2fea972ab3225e1864a438e) to a record low against the U.S. dollar, and the head of the Central Bank resigned. \n\n[Later in the week](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-trump-4e2232877bd1fff11cd80a33db47353d),\n\n> U.S. President Donald Trump and top Iranian officials exchanged dueling threats Friday as [widening protests](https://apnews.com/article/iran-traders-protest-rial-currency-ddc955739fb412b642251dee10638f03) swept across parts of the Islamic Republic, further escalating tensions between the countries after [America bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June](https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-war-nuclear-talks-geneva-news-06-21-2025-a7b0cdaba28b5817467ccf712d214579).\n\nOn January 3, 2026, [Iran’s Supreme Leader insisted](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-us-israel-nuclear-economy-cf491782ecafdc9098878e5a4e5dc384),\n\n> that “rioters must be put in their place” after a week of protests that have shaken the Islamic Republic, likely giving security forces a green light to aggressively put down the demonstrations... the demonstrations sparked by Iran’s ailing economy has killed at least 15 people, according to human rights activists. \n\n> While it remains unclear how and if Trump will intervene, his comments sparked an immediate, angry response, with officials within the theocracy threatening to target American troops in the Mideast. They also take on new importance after Trump said Saturday that the U.S. military captured Venezuelan President [Nicolás Maduro](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-us-explosions-caracas-ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e), a longtime ally of Tehran." }, { "id": 41438, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "short_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "url_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "slug": "bmys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:46.403686Z", "published_at": "2026-01-09T10:47:45Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:04:47.721418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:46.596611Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T10:47:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 89, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41153, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2026-01-16 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-09?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:22:46.404114Z", "open_time": "2026-01-09T10:47:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-16T22:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:04:44.598404Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:51) is 53.46. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of BMY. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-09, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "post_id": 41438, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767960606.176581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767960606.176581, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5247137080567595 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 6.0, 5.0, 5.0, 11.0, 1.0, 4.0, 8.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.10328058475384, "peer_score": 2.492814752209772, "coverage": 0.9921076299967589, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03081744042346909, "weighted_coverage": 0.9921076299967589, "spot_peer_score": 2.2847940811932066, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -6.10328058475384, "peer_archived_score": 2.492814752209772, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03081744042346909, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.2847940811932066, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bristol-Myers Squibb Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-03 23:10:51) is 53.46. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. Bristol-Myers Squibb Company was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Princeton, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"BMY\"}}`" } ] }
