Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6451, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40730, "title": "Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "short_title": "Will there be a Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "url_title": "Will there be a Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-labour-party-leadership-election-before-2027", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-14T15:53:32.278756Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T01:55:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T09:12:53.098824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-20T01:56:30.702557Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-21T01:55:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đď¸", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40348, "title": "Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-14T15:53:32.279195Z", "open_time": "2025-11-21T01:55:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T01:55:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T01:55:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 2025, there is growing speculation about Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmerâs future amid internal briefings and poor polling for Labour. Some MPs believe [a challenge could emerge](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y0z2q2g2ro) after the 2025 Budget or the May 2026 local and devolved elections. Under Labourâs current rules, a leadership challenge requires 20% of Labour MPs (â 81 signatures) to nominate a replacement candidate. If that threshold is reached, the incumbent leader is [automatically on the ballot](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/12/how-would-labour-leadership-challenge-work-keir-starmer-prime-minister), and the Labour national executive committee sets the timetable for a vote among party members and affiliates.\n\nNo sitting Labour prime minister has ever been formally challenged, though Jeremy Corbyn faced a leadership contest in 2016 after losing a confidence vote among MPs.\n\nPotential replacements mentioned in Westminster coverage include Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Angela Rayner, and Ed Miliband, though all publicly deny plotting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, a leadership election is formally opened under [Labour Party rules](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03938/).", "fine_print": "Any leadership election will suffice for resolution, regardless of whether it is triggered by a leadership challenge or by a resignation or other vacancy.", "post_id": 40730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764234762.466484, "end_time": 1766362446.534, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764234762.466484, "end_time": 1766362446.534, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.5304704825792647 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.67061784043393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5440393206428573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of November 2025, there is growing speculation about Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmerâs future amid internal briefings and poor polling for Labour. Some MPs believe [a challenge could emerge](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y0z2q2g2ro) after the 2025 Budget or the May 2026 local and devolved elections. Under Labourâs current rules, a leadership challenge requires 20% of Labour MPs (â 81 signatures) to nominate a replacement candidate. If that threshold is reached, the incumbent leader is [automatically on the ballot](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/12/how-would-labour-leadership-challenge-work-keir-starmer-prime-minister), and the Labour national executive committee sets the timetable for a vote among party members and affiliates.\n\nNo sitting Labour prime minister has ever been formally challenged, though Jeremy Corbyn faced a leadership contest in 2016 after losing a confidence vote among MPs.\n\nPotential replacements mentioned in Westminster coverage include Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Angela Rayner, and Ed Miliband, though all publicly deny plotting." }, { "id": 40727, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "short_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "url_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "slug": "more-canadian-mp-defections-in-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-13T20:27:38.512912Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T19:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T20:56:37.880874Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-14T19:58:10.941696Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đď¸", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:05.063045Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:05.063045Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40342, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-13T20:27:38.513361Z", "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 17, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, a member of the Canadian House of Commons resigns, changes party, or becomes an independent.", "fine_print": "If an MP dies or otherwise leaves office without resigning, that will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 40727, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764288636.472, "end_time": 1764338419.793, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764288636.472, "end_time": 1764338419.793, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2663304516223187 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16912165850736421, 0.0, 0.9019774995738136, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.37390892894840233, 1.0629044896686648, 1.0425744726446442, 1.633622474673567, 0.0, 0.253669951468313, 0.0, 0.45449252995772554, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.6137072980720084, 0.0, 0.32297930813893194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8850745829084187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24951801986884833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583246801941605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 284, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority." }, { "id": 40711, "title": "Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-russia-or-china-detonate-a-nuclear-device-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-12T19:54:35.891063Z", "published_at": "2025-11-12T20:26:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T16:31:01.825759Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-12T20:26:39.928620Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "â˘ď¸", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40323, "title": "Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-12T19:54:35.891513Z", "open_time": "2025-11-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-17T20:26:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-17T20:26:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "USA Today November 11, 2025: [If Trump resumes testing of nuclear weapons, Russia says it's going to do it too](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/11/11/russia-trump-nuclear-tests/87209795007/)\n\n> Senior Russian officials on Nov. 11 said they were still waiting for a White House explanation about what President Donald Trump meant he when said he had instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing.\n\n> And that if the United States resumes nuclear testing, Russia will too.\n\n> The abrupt announcement from Trump came just months before the last remaining nuclear-arms-control treaty between the United States and Russia, known as New START, is due to expire in February 2026.\n\n> Trump did not specify what kind of tests he was referring to or whether this included the detonation of nuclear warheads when he announced on Oct. 29 that the United States would \"immediately\" resume nuclear weapons tests, a move he said was needed to ensure the country keeps up with its rival nuclear powers.\n\n[China denies Trump's claim to 60 Minutes about nuclear weapons tests, calls on U.S. to ensure global stability](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-trump-nuclear-weapons-tests-60-minutes-beijing-response/)\n\n> China's Foreign Ministry responded on Monday to President Trump's assertion that Beijing has conducted clandestine nuclear weapons testing with a flat denial.\n\n> \"China's testing 'em too,\" Mr. Trump told CBS News correspondent Norah O'Donnell in an interview for 60 Minutes. \"You just don't know about it.\"\n\n> \"Russia's testing, and China's testing, but they don't talk about it. You know, we're a open society. We're different. We talk about it. We have to talk about it, because otherwise you people are going to report â they don't have reporters that going to be writing about it. We do.\" \n\n> Mr. Trump made the claim in the interview with O'Donnell that aired just days after the president's own nominee to lead STRATCOM â the U.S. military command in charge of nuclear weapons â told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that neither China nor Russia were conducting nuclear explosive tests.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after November 12, 2025 and before April 1, 2026, the United States, Russia or China are publicly reported to have detonated a nuclear device anywhere, for any reason. ", "fine_print": "A test with no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, does not count.", "post_id": 40711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764288076.653, "end_time": 1764468445.34, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764288076.653, "end_time": 1764468445.34, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.028274476527568995 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.2984205346311777, 0.37221951051066304, 0.0, 1.2139942392790584, 0.0, 1.206986644946858, 0.17522973636453743, 0.6231125364833519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "USA Today November 11, 2025: [If Trump resumes testing of nuclear weapons, Russia says it's going to do it too](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/11/11/russia-trump-nuclear-tests/87209795007/)\n\n> Senior Russian officials on Nov. 11 said they were still waiting for a White House explanation about what President Donald Trump meant he when said he had instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing.\n\n> And that if the United States resumes nuclear testing, Russia will too.\n\n> The abrupt announcement from Trump came just months before the last remaining nuclear-arms-control treaty between the United States and Russia, known as New START, is due to expire in February 2026.\n\n> Trump did not specify what kind of tests he was referring to or whether this included the detonation of nuclear warheads when he announced on Oct. 29 that the United States would \"immediately\" resume nuclear weapons tests, a move he said was needed to ensure the country keeps up with its rival nuclear powers.\n\n[China denies Trump's claim to 60 Minutes about nuclear weapons tests, calls on U.S. to ensure global stability](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-trump-nuclear-weapons-tests-60-minutes-beijing-response/)\n\n> China's Foreign Ministry responded on Monday to President Trump's assertion that Beijing has conducted clandestine nuclear weapons testing with a flat denial.\n\n> \"China's testing 'em too,\" Mr. Trump told CBS News correspondent Norah O'Donnell in an interview for 60 Minutes. \"You just don't know about it.\"\n\n> \"Russia's testing, and China's testing, but they don't talk about it. You know, we're a open society. We're different. We talk about it. We have to talk about it, because otherwise you people are going to report â they don't have reporters that going to be writing about it. We do.\" \n\n> Mr. Trump made the claim in the interview with O'Donnell that aired just days after the president's own nominee to lead STRATCOM â the U.S. military command in charge of nuclear weapons â told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that neither China nor Russia were conducting nuclear explosive tests." }, { "id": 40703, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "short_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "url_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "slug": "will-nvidias-stock-price-close-220-or-180-on-any-day-before-nov-22-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T22:39:36.915597Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T00:17:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T00:03:56.022386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-11T00:17:50.239385Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T21:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "đ¤", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40305, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T22:39:36.916352Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T21:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-21T21:15:27.045073Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nvidiaâs stock closes at greater than or equal to \\$220.00 or less than or equal to \\$180.00 for any regular trading day after November 10, 2025 and before November 22, 2025, according to [<u>Yahoo Finance</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/) or (if necessary) alternative [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will adjust to account for the split. Typically this is done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor. ", "post_id": 40703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763758303.72065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763758303.72065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.43160506748582134 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9930818769128185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -1.2107713546344556, "peer_score": 98.73884037350105, "coverage": 0.9803856768979741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9803856768979741, "spot_peer_score": 104.99486492654067, "spot_baseline_score": -25.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -1.2107713546344556, "peer_archived_score": 98.73884037350105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 104.99486492654067, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.15387669959645 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0)." }, { "id": 40701, "title": "Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "short_title": "AI hot 100 song before 2027?", "url_title": "AI hot 100 song before 2027?", "slug": "ai-hot-100-song-before-2027", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T19:09:46.110738Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T22:50:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T05:44:17.407003Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T22:51:19.381959Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:50:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40303, "title": "Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T19:09:46.111150Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:50:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T22:50:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T22:50:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During 2025, AI created songs have began to place on various [Billboard ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_\\(magazine\\))charts, with at least six songs landing in the charts within the year. As of late 2025, this trend is accelerating leading to speculation an AI created song may soon chart on the Billboard Hot 100.\n\n[How Many AI Artists Have Debuted on Billboardâs Charts?:](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ai-artists-on-billboard-charts/childpets-galore/)\n\n> Notably, at least one AI artist has debuted in each of the past five chart weeks, a streak suggesting this trend is quickly accelerating. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a song primarily created by AI charts on the [Billboard Hot 100](https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) before 2027.", "fine_print": "This question will use credible sources or artist credits to determine whether a song is primarily created by AI.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a song will be considered as primarily created by AI if the majority of the audio is generated by an AI, minor edits or filters will not qualify. \n\nWhether a song's lyrics are written by a human or AI will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 40701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763653872.277558, "end_time": 1765745026.154, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763653872.277558, "end_time": 1765745026.154, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.7708310135384454 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8863274748307821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.8312235634166666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During 2025, AI created songs have began to place on various [Billboard ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_\\(magazine\\))charts, with at least six songs landing in the charts within the year. As of late 2025, this trend is accelerating leading to speculation an AI created song may soon chart on the Billboard Hot 100.\n\n[How Many AI Artists Have Debuted on Billboardâs Charts?:](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ai-artists-on-billboard-charts/childpets-galore/)\n\n> Notably, at least one AI artist has debuted in each of the past five chart weeks, a streak suggesting this trend is quickly accelerating. " }, { "id": 40700, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "short_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "url_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "slug": "will-us-import-mexican-cattle-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:21.476029Z", "published_at": "2025-11-16T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T17:00:00.284415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:21.794632Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-16T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40302, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:21.476445Z", "open_time": "2025-11-16T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40602,\"question_id\":40188}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if U.S. imports of cattle from Mexico are permitted to resume before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40700, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763312039.889835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.344 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763312039.889835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.344 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2992955447566036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40602,\"question_id\":40188}}`" }, { "id": 40698, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "short_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "url_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "slug": "us-military-in-nigeria-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:20.305202Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T17:00:00.493951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:20.600864Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-27T23:27:02.006727Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40300, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:20.305686Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to âprepare for possible actionâ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, âguns-a-blazing,â to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40577,\"question_id\":40150}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack within Nigeria's internationally recognised territory.", "fine_print": "Cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact do not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "post_id": 40698, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763139577.601346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763139577.601346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.140321667439315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 8.0, 7.0, 7.0, 5.0, 6.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to âprepare for possible actionâ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, âguns-a-blazing,â to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40577,\"question_id\":40150}}`" }, { "id": 40695, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up?", "short_title": "Will Jay Powell cease to be Fed Chair before his term is up?", "url_title": "Will Jay Powell cease to be Fed Chair before his term is up?", "slug": "will-jay-powell-cease-to-be-fed-chair-before-his-term-is-up", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T00:02:31.212324Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T01:18:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-25T00:43:04.034751Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T01:19:59.356437Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "đď¸", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40298, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T00:02:31.212780Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T01:18:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T01:18:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "International Banker (November 5, 2025) [Trump Puts Federal Reserve Independence Under Increasing Threat](https://internationalbanker.com/finance/trump-puts-federal-reserve-independence-under-increasing-threat/):\n\n> Despite being responsible for appointing Jerome Powell as the Fedâs chair in 2018, Trump has frequently expressed his frustration with the Powell regime for its refusal to lower interest rates. After Trumpâs âliberation dayâ on April 2, which saw a raft of import tariffs being announced against virtually all US trading partners, he wrote on social media: âThis would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always âlate,â but he could now change his image, and quickly.â\n\n> Indeed, the US president has even discussed with lawmakers the possibility of firing Powell, although he appears to have cooled on pursuing this option following public outcry. Trump has also named Stephen Miran, chair of the White Houseâs Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a role on the Fedâs Board of Governors. Miran previously supported Trumpâs demand for lower rates and has also co-authored a paper calling for an overhaul of the Fed that would reduce its independence.\n\nJay Powell [was](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220523e.htm) sworn in for his current term on May 23, 2022, and his final day in office is scheduled to be May 15, 2026. \n\nSee also: [Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307/will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before May 15, 2026, Jerome \"Jay\" Powell ceases to be Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm). ", "fine_print": " Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.", "post_id": 40695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764198320.684, "end_time": 1764477800.343, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.108 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764198320.684, "end_time": 1764477800.343, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.108 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10279171118710541 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.711990775907862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 2.009870483254179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "International Banker (November 5, 2025) [Trump Puts Federal Reserve Independence Under Increasing Threat](https://internationalbanker.com/finance/trump-puts-federal-reserve-independence-under-increasing-threat/):\n\n> Despite being responsible for appointing Jerome Powell as the Fedâs chair in 2018, Trump has frequently expressed his frustration with the Powell regime for its refusal to lower interest rates. After Trumpâs âliberation dayâ on April 2, which saw a raft of import tariffs being announced against virtually all US trading partners, he wrote on social media: âThis would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always âlate,â but he could now change his image, and quickly.â\n\n> Indeed, the US president has even discussed with lawmakers the possibility of firing Powell, although he appears to have cooled on pursuing this option following public outcry. Trump has also named Stephen Miran, chair of the White Houseâs Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a role on the Fedâs Board of Governors. Miran previously supported Trumpâs demand for lower rates and has also co-authored a paper calling for an overhaul of the Fed that would reduce its independence.\n\nJay Powell [was](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220523e.htm) sworn in for his current term on May 23, 2022, and his final day in office is scheduled to be May 15, 2026. \n\nSee also: [Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307/will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term/)" }, { "id": 40693, "title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)", "short_title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened)", "url_title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened)", "slug": "will-katie-wilson-be-elected-mayor-of-seattle-washington-in-2025-re-opened", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T23:01:00.010803Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T11:41:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T15:18:04.076821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T23:02:19.984776Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-25T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-09T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T01:29:09.362030Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "đłď¸", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40289, "title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)", "created_at": "2025-11-08T23:01:00.011262Z", "open_time": "2025-11-09T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-25T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-13T15:18:04.033148Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "King County, Washington's final results are [due](https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections/election-dates) November 25, 2025. At the time of this question, with 46% of the vote counted, Mayor Bruce Harrell led challenger Katie Wilson 50.74% to 48.86%, according to the [official results](https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). Web archives of results snapshots at previous vote counts can be accessed [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). \n\n\n\nSeattle, Washington's mayoral race is another contest (along with [New York City](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665/will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025/) and [Minneapolis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922/will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025/)) pitting a progressive newcomer against an establishment centrist. See for example The Urbanist Op-Ed: [Katie Wilson is the Zohran Mamdani of Seattle](https://www.theurbanist.org/2025/06/29/op-ed-katie-wilson-is-the-zohran-mamdani-of-seattle/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Katie Wilson is elected mayor of Seattle in the [2025 mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Seattle_mayoral_election), according to the official [vote count](https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). 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At the time of this question, with 46% of the vote counted, Mayor Bruce Harrell led challenger Katie Wilson 50.74% to 48.86%, according to the [official results](https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). Web archives of results snapshots at previous vote counts can be accessed [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). \n\n\n\nSeattle, Washington's mayoral race is another contest (along with [New York City](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665/will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025/) and [Minneapolis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922/will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025/)) pitting a progressive newcomer against an establishment centrist. See for example The Urbanist Op-Ed: [Katie Wilson is the Zohran Mamdani of Seattle](https://www.theurbanist.org/2025/06/29/op-ed-katie-wilson-is-the-zohran-mamdani-of-seattle/)." }, { "id": 40691, "title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ?", "short_title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ?", "url_title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ?", "slug": "will-any-official-cop30-decision-text-include-the-exact-english-phrase-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:30.101694Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T21:06:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:07.366195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:30.374478Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T21:06:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40287, "title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:30.102192Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T21:06:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:55:27.926527Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: The 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) is scheduled to take place in BelĂŠm, Brazil, from 10â21 November 2025. At COP28 (Dubai, 2023), Parties adopted language calling for âTransitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable mannerâŚâ but did not adopt language explicitly stating a âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ. This choice of phrasing has been a central negotiation fault line and will likely be revisited at COP30, making explicit inclusion of the exact phrase uncertain yet plausible.\n\nUseful context and definitions:\n- COP30 refers to the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, convened in BelĂŠm, Brazil, Nov 10â21, 2025.\n- Decision texts (âdecisionsâ) are the official documents adopted by the governing bodies meeting at COP30 (including, as applicable, the COP, CMA and/or CMP) and published on the UNFCCC website in multiple languages, including English. Resolution will rely on the authoritative English-language versions as posted on unfccc.int.\n- Prior art: COP28âs CMA decision on the outcome of the first global stocktake used âTransitioning away from fossil fuelsâŚâ and referenced âphase-down of unabated coalâ and âphasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidiesâ but did not include the exact phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The final texts are not known yet; negotiations over exact wording on fossil fuels are ongoing in the run-up to COP30. There is a realistic chance either outcome occurs given recent precedent.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"275bd459e19d1061\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Type: Binary (Yes/No). The question concerns documents adopted during COP30 and resolves no later than 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nDate window for eligible documents: Only decisions that are formally adopted at COP30 (the sessions held in BelĂŠm, Brazil) between 2025-11-10 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-11-21 23:59:59 UTC are eligible for evaluation.\n\nPrimary source of truth: The official English-language versions of decisions adopted at COP30 as published on the UNFCCC website (e.g., the Decisions pages for the COP and CMA sessions associated with COP30 on unfccc.int) If final formatted versions are not yet available by the resolution deadline, the most authoritative publicly accessible versions on unfccc.int (e.g., Advance Unedited Versions) will be used.\n\nCounting rule (what counts as a Yes): YES if at least one eligible official English decision text adopted at COP30 (by any relevant governing body meeting at COP30, including COP, CMA and/or CMP) contains the exact English phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ as a contiguous string, using either a hyphen-minus (â-â) or an en dash (âââ) between âphaseâ and âoutâ (i.e., âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ or âphaseâout of fossil fuelsâ). Matching is case-insensitive. The phrase may appear anywhere in the document (including title, preamble, operative paragraphs, annexes, or footnotes). Variants that do NOT count include, but are not limited to: âphase out of fossil fuelsâ (no hyphen/dash), âphasedown of fossil fuels,â âphase-out of unabated fossil fuelsâ (because an intervening word breaks the exact phrase), or any other construction where additional words interrupt the exact contiguous sequence required.\n\nExclusions: Drafts not adopted, negotiation texts, press releases, speeches, social media, media coverage, non-English versions, and third-party summaries do not count. Only the official English texts posted on unfccc.int for adopted decisions at COP30 are eligible.\n\nOperational notes for resolvers: To resolve, locate the UNFCCC Decisions pages for the COP30-related sessions on unfccc.int, open each adopted decisionâs English version, and search for the exact string (case-insensitive) âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ allowing for either hyphen-minus or en dash between âphaseâ and âout.â Document availability can be via final formatted texts or UNFCCC-labeled advance unedited versions.\n\nResolution deadline: The market resolves by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC based on the best available official English texts on unfccc.int at that time.\n\nReferences for background/status quo: COP30 dates/location: UN (official site) and Wikipedia and COP30 Presidency site. COP28 precedent language: CMA decision on the first global stocktake AUV.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40691, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: The 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) is scheduled to take place in BelĂŠm, Brazil, from 10â21 November 2025. At COP28 (Dubai, 2023), Parties adopted language calling for âTransitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable mannerâŚâ but did not adopt language explicitly stating a âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ. This choice of phrasing has been a central negotiation fault line and will likely be revisited at COP30, making explicit inclusion of the exact phrase uncertain yet plausible.\n\nUseful context and definitions:\n- COP30 refers to the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, convened in BelĂŠm, Brazil, Nov 10â21, 2025.\n- Decision texts (âdecisionsâ) are the official documents adopted by the governing bodies meeting at COP30 (including, as applicable, the COP, CMA and/or CMP) and published on the UNFCCC website in multiple languages, including English. Resolution will rely on the authoritative English-language versions as posted on unfccc.int.\n- Prior art: COP28âs CMA decision on the outcome of the first global stocktake used âTransitioning away from fossil fuelsâŚâ and referenced âphase-down of unabated coalâ and âphasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidiesâ but did not include the exact phrase âphase-out of fossil fuelsâ.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The final texts are not known yet; negotiations over exact wording on fossil fuels are ongoing in the run-up to COP30. There is a realistic chance either outcome occurs given recent precedent.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"275bd459e19d1061\"}}`" }, { "id": 40690, "title": "Will Prashant Kishorâs Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election?", "short_title": "Will Prashant Kishorâs Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly", "url_title": "Will Prashant Kishorâs Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly", "slug": "will-prashant-kishors-jan-suraaj-party-win-at-least-one-seat-in-the-2025-bihar-legislative-assembly", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.605272Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T15:33:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:18.319577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.862493Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T15:33:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40286, "title": "Will Prashant Kishorâs Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.605684Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T15:33:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:15.182459Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and context as of 2025-09-30:\n\n⢠Jan Suraaj Party (JSP): A political party founded by Prashant Kishor on 2 October 2024. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. The party emerged from the Jan Suraaj Abhiyan begun in 2022 and is described as a registered unrecognised political party (RUPP) planning to contest the Bihar Assembly election; it made its debut in Bihar by-elections in November 2024. These facts are documented on Wikipediaâs Jan Suraaj Party page.\n⢠Public positioning: In late September 2025, Prashant Kishor stated that JSP would contest all 243 seats and claimed the party would either finish first or last (i.e., not in-between). See NDTV coverage: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/my-party-will-either-be-on-top-or-bottom-prashant-kishor-on-bihar-assembly-elections-9359752.\n⢠2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election basics: The Bihar Assembly has 243 seats, with elections scheduled for October or November 2025 and conducted by the Election Commission of India (ECI). See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n⢠What is an MLA? A Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) is an elected representative to a state legislature in India. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n⢠Official result sources: The Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), Bihar is the stateâs official election office and functions under the ECI; its website hosts official Bihar election information. See: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/index.html. The CEO Bihar site has previously published a âParty Wise List of Winning Candidatesâ for Assembly elections, demonstrating the availability of party-wise winners in official publications. Example: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/BiharElection/Election%20Result/winning_partwise.pdf. National media such as NDTV also provide consolidated results pages (âResults At A Glanceâ) for state elections (as a credible fallback reference if needed). See: https://www.ndtv.com/elections.\n\nWhy this question is non-trivial: JSP is making its first full-scale bid in Bihar, led by a prominent strategist but without a past Assembly seat record; whether it secures at least one seat in 2025 is uncertain and reasonably disputed among observers. The threshold of âat least one seatâ avoids triviality while maintaining clear verifiability.\n\nDefinitions of key terms used in this market (with links):\n⢠âJan Suraaj Party (JSP)â: The political party described at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. For resolution, âJSPâ means the party label as displayed in official result publications (e.g., âJan Suraaj Partyâ).\n⢠â2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly electionâ: The general election to the Bihar Assembly scheduled OctâNov 2025 (243 seats). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n⢠âMember of the Legislative Assembly (MLA)â: An elected representative to a state legislature; see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n⢠âSeatâ (in this context): One constituencyâs representation in the Bihar Legislative Assembly; a party âwins a seatâ when a candidate affiliated with that party is recorded as the winning (declared elected) MLA for that constituency in official election results.\n⢠âOfficial result publicationsâ: State or national election authority pages or documents that publish final winners for the Bihar Assembly electionâspecifically (a) CEO Biharâs results pages/documents, such as party-wise winners lists (example PDF exists: Party Wise List of Winning Candidates) , and (b) ECI-linked official portals accessed via CEO Bihar. As a fallback, widely recognized national outletsâ consolidated result pages (e.g., NDTV Elections results pages) may be referenced to corroborate the official outcome if the primary sources are inaccessible.\n\nStatus quo and data relevant to resolution:\n⢠JSP formation and contest intent are current as of late September 2025.\n⢠The election is expected in OctâNov 2025 with 243 seats.\n⢠Official results are typically published promptly by election authorities; CEO Bihar has historically posted party-wise winner lists , and the CEO Bihar site is the stateâs official election information portal.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1ce025b01c377cc4\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Start and end of observation window:\n⢠Eligible events (the 2025 Bihar Assembly general election outcomes) must occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nQuestion resolution:\n⢠Resolve âYesâ if, by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, official result publications show at least one constituency in which the winning candidateâs party affiliation is âJan Suraaj Partyâ (exactly as displayed in the relevant official results). \n⢠Resolve âNoâ if no such JSP win is shown in official result publications by the end time.\n\nPrimary source(s) of truth:\n⢠CEO Biharâs official results publications, including party-wise winners lists (example of such a document: âParty Wise List of Winning Candidates,â indicating that party-wise winner lists are published officially) ; CEO Bihar is the stateâs official election office under the ECI.\n⢠Accepted corroborating source(s), if primary pages are temporarily inaccessible: Consolidated results pages from widely recognized national outlets (e.g., NDTV Elections results pages) clearly listing party-wise seat wins for the Bihar Assembly election.\n\nOperational definitions and clarifications:\n⢠âWinning candidateâ: The individual recorded as the elected MLA for a constituency in the Bihar Assembly election. See the general definition of MLA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n⢠âJSP winâ: Counted if the official result publication records the winning candidateâs party as âJan Suraaj Party.â If transliterations or minor spelling variants appear, use the English label used in the official publication wherever it provides an English party name; if only Hindi appears, use the partyâs Hindi label consistently across the results document.\n⢠Postponed or countermanded polls: If any constituencyâs poll or counting is postponed beyond 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, it will not count for this question.\n⢠Scope limitation: Only outcomes from the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly general election are considered. By-elections or any elections held separately outside the defined window do not count.\n⢠Tie/ambiguity handling: If multiple sources conflict, prefer CEO Biharâs official publications. If CEO Bihar is unavailable and credible national outlets disagree, do not resolve until CEO Bihar publishes or until a consensus is apparent across at least two national outletsâ consolidated results pages; if still unresolved by the deadline, default to CEO Bihar when its publication becomes available before the deadline. If no official publication appears by the deadline, use the majority of credible national outlets as the fallback (e.g., NDTV Elections).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40690, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and context as of 2025-09-30:\n\n⢠Jan Suraaj Party (JSP): A political party founded by Prashant Kishor on 2 October 2024. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. The party emerged from the Jan Suraaj Abhiyan begun in 2022 and is described as a registered unrecognised political party (RUPP) planning to contest the Bihar Assembly election; it made its debut in Bihar by-elections in November 2024. These facts are documented on Wikipediaâs Jan Suraaj Party page.\n⢠Public positioning: In late September 2025, Prashant Kishor stated that JSP would contest all 243 seats and claimed the party would either finish first or last (i.e., not in-between). See NDTV coverage: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/my-party-will-either-be-on-top-or-bottom-prashant-kishor-on-bihar-assembly-elections-9359752.\n⢠2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election basics: The Bihar Assembly has 243 seats, with elections scheduled for October or November 2025 and conducted by the Election Commission of India (ECI). See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n⢠What is an MLA? A Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) is an elected representative to a state legislature in India. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n⢠Official result sources: The Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), Bihar is the stateâs official election office and functions under the ECI; its website hosts official Bihar election information. See: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/index.html. The CEO Bihar site has previously published a âParty Wise List of Winning Candidatesâ for Assembly elections, demonstrating the availability of party-wise winners in official publications. Example: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/BiharElection/Election%20Result/winning_partwise.pdf. National media such as NDTV also provide consolidated results pages (âResults At A Glanceâ) for state elections (as a credible fallback reference if needed). See: https://www.ndtv.com/elections.\n\nWhy this question is non-trivial: JSP is making its first full-scale bid in Bihar, led by a prominent strategist but without a past Assembly seat record; whether it secures at least one seat in 2025 is uncertain and reasonably disputed among observers. The threshold of âat least one seatâ avoids triviality while maintaining clear verifiability.\n\nDefinitions of key terms used in this market (with links):\n⢠âJan Suraaj Party (JSP)â: The political party described at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. For resolution, âJSPâ means the party label as displayed in official result publications (e.g., âJan Suraaj Partyâ).\n⢠â2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly electionâ: The general election to the Bihar Assembly scheduled OctâNov 2025 (243 seats). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n⢠âMember of the Legislative Assembly (MLA)â: An elected representative to a state legislature; see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n⢠âSeatâ (in this context): One constituencyâs representation in the Bihar Legislative Assembly; a party âwins a seatâ when a candidate affiliated with that party is recorded as the winning (declared elected) MLA for that constituency in official election results.\n⢠âOfficial result publicationsâ: State or national election authority pages or documents that publish final winners for the Bihar Assembly electionâspecifically (a) CEO Biharâs results pages/documents, such as party-wise winners lists (example PDF exists: Party Wise List of Winning Candidates) , and (b) ECI-linked official portals accessed via CEO Bihar. As a fallback, widely recognized national outletsâ consolidated result pages (e.g., NDTV Elections results pages) may be referenced to corroborate the official outcome if the primary sources are inaccessible.\n\nStatus quo and data relevant to resolution:\n⢠JSP formation and contest intent are current as of late September 2025.\n⢠The election is expected in OctâNov 2025 with 243 seats.\n⢠Official results are typically published promptly by election authorities; CEO Bihar has historically posted party-wise winner lists , and the CEO Bihar site is the stateâs official election information portal.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1ce025b01c377cc4\"}}`" }, { "id": 40689, "title": "Will the EU adopt any legally binding restriction on exports of ferrous waste and scrap (CN heading 7204) to destinations other than the United States between 00:00 UTC on Oct 15, 2025 and 23:59 UTC on Dec 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EU adopt any legally binding restriction on exports of ferrous waste and scrap (CN heading", "url_title": "Will the EU adopt any legally binding restriction on exports of ferrous waste and scrap (CN heading", "slug": "will-the-eu-adopt-any-legally-binding-restriction-on-exports-of-ferrous-waste-and-scrap-cn-heading", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.144952Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T14:58:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:28.332779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.415368Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T16:28:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T16:28:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T14:58:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40285, "title": "Will the EU adopt any legally binding restriction on exports of ferrous waste and scrap (CN heading 7204) to destinations other than the United States between 00:00 UTC on Oct 15, 2025 and 23:59 UTC on Dec 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.145375Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T14:58:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T16:28:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T16:28:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:24.879865Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T16:28:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T16:28:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of Oct 1, 2025:\n- On July 23, 2025, the European Commission announced it had activated the customs surveillance system to monitor imports and exports of metal waste and scrap, covering ferrous waste and scrap (including steel), aluminium, and copper. The stated rationale was to ensure sufficient access to scrap for EU metals industries amid declining availability and âscrap leakageâ to third countries, and to assess whether further action is necessary by the end of Q3 2025.\n- Reporting on July 24, 2025 noted the Commission âhas started monitoring imports and exports of scrap metal,â including steel, aluminium and copper, citing shortages, smelter shutdown risks, and export flows to Asia and Turkey; the article indicated the Commission would decide on any action by the end of September based on the data.\n- Under the EUâs common rules for exports, exports are generally free and not subject to quantitative restrictions, except where restrictions are introduced in conformity with Regulation (EU) 2015/479. That regulation provides legal bases for protective measures, including making exports subject to authorisation and introducing quantitative restrictions, to prevent or remedy critical shortages of essential products, with measures adopted via implementing acts following the comitology procedures.\n- Separately, on July 24, 2025, the Commission adopted Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1564 on commercial rebalancing measures in response to U.S. actions. Among other measures, it prohibits, from Sept 7, 2025, the direct or indirect export to the United States of certain products originating in the Union listed in an annex that includes CN code 7204 (ferrous waste and scrap) and CN code 7602 (aluminium waste and scrap). Because this is a U.S.-specific rebalancing measure, the forecasting question below explicitly excludes the United States as a destination to maintain non-trivial uncertainty.\n\nWhy this could be high-entropy:\n- Policymakers signaled the potential for âfurther actionâ after Q3 2025, yet any move to EU-level curbs on scrap exports beyond the U.S.-specific rebalancing measure remains uncertain. Forecasters must weigh industrial supply pressures, decarbonisation goals, trade policy constraints under EU law and WTO commitments, and political economy factors.\n\nDefinitions and references forecasters may need:\n- Ferrous waste and scrap refers to goods classified under CN heading 7204 in the EUâs Combined Nomenclature (per Council Regulation (EEC) No 2658/87, Annex I). Reference link: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/1987/2658/2025-01-01/eng\n- EU legal acts are published in the Official Journal (OJ). Regulations, implementing regulations, delegated acts, and certain decisions are binding. Reference overview: https://eur-lex.europa.eu\n- Regulation (EU) 2015/479 (common rules for exports) is the core legal framework for EU export restrictions (authorisations/quantitative limits).\n- Commission surveillance announcement and timeline (end-Q3 2025 assessment) ; contextual reporting on shortages and the assessment timeline.\n- U.S.-specific export prohibition under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1564 (rebalancing).\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"5c7348302c4311ad\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution window: Eligible legal acts must be adopted and published, and enter into force, between 00:00 UTC on Oct 15, 2025 and 23:59 UTC on Dec 31, 2025.\n\nYES criteria:\n- A legally binding EU-level measure is adopted, published in the Official Journal, and in force within the resolution window, that imposes any restriction on exports from the EU customs territory of ferrous waste and scrap (CN heading 7204) to destinations other than the United States. Qualifying restrictions include:\n - An export duty (a levy specifically applied to exports of CN 7204 goods).\n - A quantitative restriction/limit (e.g., quotas or caps) on exports of CN 7204 goods.\n - An export authorisation/licensing requirement that functions as a quantitative restriction under Regulation (EU) 2015/479, Article 5 or Article 6 (i.e., making exports subject to authorisation with limits or conditions that restrict quantities).\n - An outright prohibition/ban on exporting CN 7204 goods to one or more specified non-U.S. destinations.\n- The act may be an EU Regulation, Implementing Regulation, Delegated Act, or Decision adopted by the Commission, Council, or co-legislators, provided it is binding and specifically restricts exports of CN 7204 goods as described above.\n\nNO criteria:\n- No such binding EU-level measure meeting the YES criteria is adopted, published, and in force within the resolution window.\n\nExplicit exclusions and clarifications:\n- Measures limited solely to exports to the United States adopted as commercial rebalancing measures (e.g., Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1564) do NOT count for this question.\n- Non-binding communications, guidance, or surveillance/monitoring actions (including the July 23, 2025 customs surveillance activation) do NOT count.\n- Member State-level measures (national laws/regulations) do NOT count; the measure must be EU-level and published in the OJ.\n- Anti-dumping, countervailing duties, safeguard measures on imports, or CBAM-related reporting do NOT count unless they impose a restriction specifically on exports of CN 7204 goods as defined above.\n- Acts adopted within the window but entering into force after Dec 31, 2025 do NOT count.\n\nPrimary resolution source and how to verify:\n- Official Journal of the European Union (EUR-Lex). The resolver will search the OJ L series for 2025 acts published between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 that (a) are binding EU legal acts, and (b) explicitly impose any of the qualifying restrictions on exports of CN heading 7204 goods to destinations other than the United States. Key legal bases likely include Regulation (EU) 2015/479 for export authorisations/quantitative restrictions.\n- Supporting context sources confirming surveillance and assessment timeline: European Commission news announcement of July 23, 2025 ; Reuters reporting on shortages and timeline.\n\nOperational details for resolvers:\n- Search terms: â7204 Official Journal export authorisation,â âRegulation (EU) 2015/479 export authorisation 7204,â âquantitative restriction export CN 7204 Official Journal,â âexport duty 7204 EU Regulation,â and exclude U.S.-specific rebalancing acts.\n- Confirm the actâs scope includes CN heading 7204 and explicitly applies to destinations other than the U.S.\n- Confirm the actâs in-force date falls within the resolution window.\n\nNotes:\n- Commission announcement, materials covered (ferrous, aluminium, copper), rationale (supply, leakage), and end-Q3 assessment reference:.\n- Reuters article noting monitoring start, materials covered, supply decline context, and end-September decision reference:.\n- Legal framework for export restrictions, including authorisation and quantitative limits:.\n- U.S.-specific rebalancing measure prohibiting exports of CN 7204 and 7602 to the United States from Sept 7, 2025 (explicitly excluded from counting):.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40689, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of Oct 1, 2025:\n- On July 23, 2025, the European Commission announced it had activated the customs surveillance system to monitor imports and exports of metal waste and scrap, covering ferrous waste and scrap (including steel), aluminium, and copper. The stated rationale was to ensure sufficient access to scrap for EU metals industries amid declining availability and âscrap leakageâ to third countries, and to assess whether further action is necessary by the end of Q3 2025.\n- Reporting on July 24, 2025 noted the Commission âhas started monitoring imports and exports of scrap metal,â including steel, aluminium and copper, citing shortages, smelter shutdown risks, and export flows to Asia and Turkey; the article indicated the Commission would decide on any action by the end of September based on the data.\n- Under the EUâs common rules for exports, exports are generally free and not subject to quantitative restrictions, except where restrictions are introduced in conformity with Regulation (EU) 2015/479. That regulation provides legal bases for protective measures, including making exports subject to authorisation and introducing quantitative restrictions, to prevent or remedy critical shortages of essential products, with measures adopted via implementing acts following the comitology procedures.\n- Separately, on July 24, 2025, the Commission adopted Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1564 on commercial rebalancing measures in response to U.S. actions. Among other measures, it prohibits, from Sept 7, 2025, the direct or indirect export to the United States of certain products originating in the Union listed in an annex that includes CN code 7204 (ferrous waste and scrap) and CN code 7602 (aluminium waste and scrap). Because this is a U.S.-specific rebalancing measure, the forecasting question below explicitly excludes the United States as a destination to maintain non-trivial uncertainty.\n\nWhy this could be high-entropy:\n- Policymakers signaled the potential for âfurther actionâ after Q3 2025, yet any move to EU-level curbs on scrap exports beyond the U.S.-specific rebalancing measure remains uncertain. Forecasters must weigh industrial supply pressures, decarbonisation goals, trade policy constraints under EU law and WTO commitments, and political economy factors.\n\nDefinitions and references forecasters may need:\n- Ferrous waste and scrap refers to goods classified under CN heading 7204 in the EUâs Combined Nomenclature (per Council Regulation (EEC) No 2658/87, Annex I). Reference link: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/1987/2658/2025-01-01/eng\n- EU legal acts are published in the Official Journal (OJ). Regulations, implementing regulations, delegated acts, and certain decisions are binding. Reference overview: https://eur-lex.europa.eu\n- Regulation (EU) 2015/479 (common rules for exports) is the core legal framework for EU export restrictions (authorisations/quantitative limits).\n- Commission surveillance announcement and timeline (end-Q3 2025 assessment) ; contextual reporting on shortages and the assessment timeline.\n- U.S.-specific export prohibition under Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/1564 (rebalancing).\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"5c7348302c4311ad\"}}`" }, { "id": 40688, "title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer between two Starship spacecraft in Earth orbit by 2025-12-31?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer betw", "url_title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer betw", "slug": "will-spacex-or-nasa-publicly-confirm-completion-of-a-ship-to-ship-cryogenic-propellant-transfer-betw", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.574224Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T13:51:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:36.700398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.960099Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:51:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40284, "title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer between two Starship spacecraft in Earth orbit by 2025-12-31?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.574693Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:51:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:33.759185Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- What Starship is and what it uses for propellant: SpaceXâs Starship is a twoâstage, fully reusable super heavyâlift launch system; the upper stage is also called Starship (the spacecraft). It is powered by Raptor engines burning liquid methane (fuel) and liquid oxygen (oxidizer), commonly referred to as methalox. Liquid oxygen (LOX) is a cryogenic oxidizer widely used in rocketry.\n- Why inâspace transfer matters: Starshipâs lunar architecture requires transferring cryogenic propellant in orbit to enable missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). NASA and SpaceX have laid out plans for a shipâtoâship refueling demonstration in LEO as part of the Human Landing System (HLS) work.\n- Completed internal (not shipâtoâship) transfer in 2024: During Starshipâs third integrated flight test (IFTâ3) on 2024â03â14, NASA stated: âThe propellant transfer demonstration operations were completed,â describing the transfer of cryogenic propellant between internal tanks during the spacecraftâs coast phase. This was tankâtoâtank within a single Starship vehicle, not between two vehicles.\n- Forwardâlooking plans toward shipâtoâship: NASA officials and reporting indicate a next milestone is a shipâtoâship transfer demo in LEO, involving launching a target Starship to orbit, followed weeks later by a chaser Starship that docks and transfers propellant; NASA has reviewed plans for this campaign. SpaceNews reported in April 2024 that NASAâs deputy associate administrator described the internal transfer at IFTâ3 as successful and outlined the plan for a twoâStarship docking and transfer mission targeted for 2025. NASA HLS materials also describe a longâduration cryogenic propellant transfer test between Starships in LEO to reduce risk for orbital fluid management.\n- Definitions relevant to orbit: Low Earth orbit (LEO) is generally the region below 2,000 km altitude; an orbit with period â¤128 minutes and eccentricity <0.25 is considered LEO. This is the typical regime for early Starship orbital operations and where NASA plans the propellant transfer demonstration.\n\nKey definitions used in this question (with sources):\n- Starship (spacecraft): the upperâstage vehicle of SpaceXâs Starship launch system (distinct from the Super Heavy booster).\n- Cryogenic propellant: for the purposes of this question, liquid oxygen (LOX) or liquid methane used by Starshipâs Raptor engines.\n- Low Earth orbit (LEO): an Earth orbit with period â¤128 minutes (âĽ11.25 orbits/day) and eccentricity <0.25, generally below 2,000 km altitude.\n\nContext for forecasters: As of this date, an internal tankâtoâtank transfer in orbit has been performed (operations completed) but a shipâtoâship inâorbit transfer has not yet been publicly confirmed as completed. NASA and SpaceX materials describe the planned shipâtoâship demonstration architecture in LEO and indicate intent to conduct such a mission, with 2025 discussed in public remarks, but execution remains uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"8b6d09c38ce91d27\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window and event eligibility\n- Eligible event window: Shipâtoâship transfer must occur between 2024â10â15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025â12â31 23:59:59 UTC.\n- Resolution window: This question resolves immediately upon qualifying public confirmation; otherwise it resolves at 2025â12â31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nWhat counts as âYesâ\nResolve Yes if, by 2025â12â31 23:59:59 UTC, an eligible official source (see Sources) publishes a statement that explicitly confirms that a shipâtoâship cryogenic propellant transfer between two distinct Starship spacecraft was completed while both vehicles were in Earth orbit that meets the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) definition (period â¤128 minutes and eccentricity <0.25; generally below 2,000 km altitude).\n\nDefinitions and clarifications (all must be satisfied):\n- Shipâtoâship: The transfer is between two physically separate Starship spacecraft (upper stages), not within a single vehicle. Transfers involving the Super Heavy booster do not count.\n- Cryogenic propellant: The transferred fluid must be liquid oxygen (LOX) or liquid methane as used by Starshipâs propulsion system. Transfers of other substances (e.g., water) do not count.\n- Onâorbit in LEO: Both vehicles must be in a closed Earth orbit within LEO as defined above at the time of transfer. Suborbital coast phases do not count.\n- Completed: The official source must use language indicating completion of the transfer operations for the shipâtoâship demonstration (e.g., âcompleted,â âwas completed,â or âoperations were completedâ), analogous to NASAâs phrasing for the IFTâ3 internal transfer, but specifically in the context of a shipâtoâship transfer. Statements that the transfer was only âattempted,â âinitiated,â âplanned,â or âpartialâ do not count.\n\nWhat does NOT count\n- Internal (tankâtoâtank) transfers within a single Starship vehicle.\n- Transfers not involving two Starship spacecraft (e.g., including the Super Heavy booster).\n- Transfers of nonâcryogenic fluids or of cryogenic fluids other than LOX or liquid methane.\n- Transfers that occur outside of LEO or on suborbital trajectories.\n\nSources acceptable for resolution\n- NASA: An official NASA.gov press release, blog/news update, or HLS program page that explicitly states the shipâtoâship cryogenic propellant transfer was completed.\n- SpaceX: An official update on SpaceX.com (e.g., spacex.com/updates or a Starship launch page) that explicitly states the shipâtoâship cryogenic propellant transfer was completed.\n- Social media caveat: Posts on verified NASA or SpaceX social media accounts are acceptable only if they are accompanied by, or directly link to, an official NASA.gov or SpaceX.com page with the explicit confirmation.\n- Evidence preservation: The qualifying page must be publicly accessible at resolution time; an archived snapshot (e.g., via the Internet Archive) captured on or before 2025â12â31 is acceptable as evidence if the live page changes.\n\nAdjudication notes\n- If multiple sources disagree, NASA.gov statements take precedence over SpaceX.com.\n- If no qualifying public confirmation is available by the deadline, resolve No, even if thirdâparty media report that a transfer occurred.\n\nReferences supporting status quo and definitions\n- NASAâs statement that an inâorbit internal tankâtoâtank propellant transferâs âoperations were completedâ during IFTâ3 (2024â03â14), clarifying what âcompletedâ language looks like and that this prior event was not shipâtoâship.\n- SpaceNews reporting (April 2024) of NASAâs deputy associate administrator describing the internal transfer as successful and outlining a plan for a 2025 twoâStarship docking and propellant transfer mission.\n- NASA HLS materials describing a longâduration LEO shipâtoâship cryogenic propellant transfer test between Starships.\n- Definitions: Starship system ; liquid rocket propellants and methalox/cryogenic context ; LOX definition ; LEO definition.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40688, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- What Starship is and what it uses for propellant: SpaceXâs Starship is a twoâstage, fully reusable super heavyâlift launch system; the upper stage is also called Starship (the spacecraft). It is powered by Raptor engines burning liquid methane (fuel) and liquid oxygen (oxidizer), commonly referred to as methalox. Liquid oxygen (LOX) is a cryogenic oxidizer widely used in rocketry.\n- Why inâspace transfer matters: Starshipâs lunar architecture requires transferring cryogenic propellant in orbit to enable missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). NASA and SpaceX have laid out plans for a shipâtoâship refueling demonstration in LEO as part of the Human Landing System (HLS) work.\n- Completed internal (not shipâtoâship) transfer in 2024: During Starshipâs third integrated flight test (IFTâ3) on 2024â03â14, NASA stated: âThe propellant transfer demonstration operations were completed,â describing the transfer of cryogenic propellant between internal tanks during the spacecraftâs coast phase. This was tankâtoâtank within a single Starship vehicle, not between two vehicles.\n- Forwardâlooking plans toward shipâtoâship: NASA officials and reporting indicate a next milestone is a shipâtoâship transfer demo in LEO, involving launching a target Starship to orbit, followed weeks later by a chaser Starship that docks and transfers propellant; NASA has reviewed plans for this campaign. SpaceNews reported in April 2024 that NASAâs deputy associate administrator described the internal transfer at IFTâ3 as successful and outlined the plan for a twoâStarship docking and transfer mission targeted for 2025. NASA HLS materials also describe a longâduration cryogenic propellant transfer test between Starships in LEO to reduce risk for orbital fluid management.\n- Definitions relevant to orbit: Low Earth orbit (LEO) is generally the region below 2,000 km altitude; an orbit with period â¤128 minutes and eccentricity <0.25 is considered LEO. This is the typical regime for early Starship orbital operations and where NASA plans the propellant transfer demonstration.\n\nKey definitions used in this question (with sources):\n- Starship (spacecraft): the upperâstage vehicle of SpaceXâs Starship launch system (distinct from the Super Heavy booster).\n- Cryogenic propellant: for the purposes of this question, liquid oxygen (LOX) or liquid methane used by Starshipâs Raptor engines.\n- Low Earth orbit (LEO): an Earth orbit with period â¤128 minutes (âĽ11.25 orbits/day) and eccentricity <0.25, generally below 2,000 km altitude.\n\nContext for forecasters: As of this date, an internal tankâtoâtank transfer in orbit has been performed (operations completed) but a shipâtoâship inâorbit transfer has not yet been publicly confirmed as completed. NASA and SpaceX materials describe the planned shipâtoâship demonstration architecture in LEO and indicate intent to conduct such a mission, with 2025 discussed in public remarks, but execution remains uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"8b6d09c38ce91d27\"}}`" }, { "id": 40687, "title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (ART)?", "short_title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement", "url_title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement", "slug": "argentina-imf-eff-will-the-imf-executive-board-complete-the-second-review-and-enable-a-disbursement", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.129362Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T13:09:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:46.752515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.368953Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:09:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40283, "title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (ART)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.129773Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:09:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:43.864179Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Program approval and size: On April 11, 2025, the IMF Executive Board approved a 48âmonth Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling about US$20 billion (SDR 15.267 billion).\n- First review completed and disbursement: On July 31, 2025, the IMF Executive Board completed the first review of Argentinaâs EFF arrangement, âenabling an immediate disbursement of SDR 1.529 billion (about US$2 billion).â This press release exemplifies the standard IMF phrasing used when a review is completed and a disbursement is enabled.\n- Forward-looking constraints on review timing: Reporting on August 1, 2025 indicated that the IMF lowered Argentinaâs net international reserve (NIR) accumulation targets through 2026 and removed a review that had been due before the countryâs October legislative elections, with the next review due after those elections.\n- What the EFF is and how reviews/disbursements work: The EFF supports countries facing mediumâterm balanceâofâpayments problems due to structural weaknesses. Access to IMF resources is phased, and disbursements are conditional on policy performance assessed at periodic reviews.\n\nKey definitions and references for forecasters:\n- Extended Fund Facility (EFF): An IMF lending facility supporting multiâyear structural reform programs; periodic reviews assess performance and, when completed by the Executive Board, typically âenableâ access to the next disbursement tranche.\n- âSecond reviewâ (in this question): The second periodic program review under Argentinaâs 48âmonth EFF arrangement approved April 11, 2025.\n- IMF Executive Board: The decisionâmaking body that formally completes reviews under IMF arrangements; see the Board phrasing and role as used in the July 31, 2025 Argentina press release (âExecutive Board completed the first review ⌠enabling ⌠disbursementâ).\n- Argentina Time (ART): The official time in Argentina is UTCâ03:00 yearâround (no daylight saving time). Buenos Aires observes ART.\n\nPrimary sources to monitor:\n- IMF News/Press Releases related to Argentina (example press release format: PR25272 for the first review) and IMF Staff Country Reports pages on imf.org. A qualifying IMF publication will explicitly state that the Executive Board completed the second review and that this completion enabled/approved a (next) disbursement.\n- For general program context: the April 11, 2025 approval release and subsequent reporting on review timing and target adjustments.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"60050d4056466a0e\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This is a binary question. It will resolve based on official IMF publications as follows:\n\nEvent window and time zone:\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00 ART (UTCâ03:00).\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59 ART (UTCâ03:00).\n- ART is Argentina Time, which is UTCâ03:00 yearâround.\n\nYES resolution:\n- Resolve YES if, within the event window, there exists at least one official IMF publication on imf.org (e.g., a press release, Executive Board decision/statement, or the Staff Report page for the relevant review) that explicitly states both of the following for Argentina under the current 48âmonth EFF arrangement approved on April 11, 2025 :\n 1) âThe Executive Board completed the second reviewâ (or equivalent standard IMF phrasing such as âThe IMF Executive Board completed today the second review âŚâ).\n 2) The completion âenabledâ or âapprovedâ a disbursement (typical phrasing includes âenabling an immediate disbursement of âŚâ or âapproving a disbursement of âŚâ). The IMFâs standard language for completion/enabling a disbursement is exemplified in the July 31, 2025 press release on the first review.\n\nNO resolution:\n- Resolve NO if no such qualifying IMF publication dated within the event window can be found by the resolution deadline.\n\nSource and dating rules:\n- The authoritative source is the IMF website (imf.org) The publication must be publicly accessible on imf.org and clearly associated with Argentinaâs EFF.\n- For the purposes of determining whether the publication falls within the event window, use the publication date displayed on the IMF page (as shown on the press release or report page). If both an Executive Board meeting date and a separate publication date are listed, the publication date controls for this questionâs timing.\n\nTerm clarifications:\n- âSecond reviewâ refers to the second periodic review under Argentinaâs 48âmonth EFF arrangement approved on April 11, 2025.\n- âEnable/approve a disbursementâ means the IMF text explicitly states that a disbursement is made available as a consequence of completing the second review, using standard IMF phrasing such as âenabling an immediate disbursement of âŚâ or âapproving a disbursement of âŚâ.\n\nExamples (illustrative):\n- A press release that states, âThe IMF Executive Board completed the second review of the Extended Arrangement under the EFF for Argentina, enabling an immediate disbursement of SDR Xâ within the window would resolve YES.\n- A staff report published within the window whose cover page or press release states the Board âcompleted the second review ⌠enabling a disbursementâ would resolve YES.\n- If the Board completes the review but the IMF publication is dated outside the window, resolve NO under this questionâs timing rule.\n\nFallback if imf.org is inaccessible at resolution time:\n- If the IMF website is inaccessible for more than 24 consecutive hours at the resolution deadline, use reports from at least two of the following wire services: Reuters, Associated Press, or AFP, that clearly state the IMF Executive Board completed Argentinaâs second EFF review and enabled/approved a disbursement, with at least one citing or linking to the IMF release. For timing, use the earliest datestamp among those reports; it must fall within the event window.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40687, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Program approval and size: On April 11, 2025, the IMF Executive Board approved a 48âmonth Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling about US$20 billion (SDR 15.267 billion).\n- First review completed and disbursement: On July 31, 2025, the IMF Executive Board completed the first review of Argentinaâs EFF arrangement, âenabling an immediate disbursement of SDR 1.529 billion (about US$2 billion).â This press release exemplifies the standard IMF phrasing used when a review is completed and a disbursement is enabled.\n- Forward-looking constraints on review timing: Reporting on August 1, 2025 indicated that the IMF lowered Argentinaâs net international reserve (NIR) accumulation targets through 2026 and removed a review that had been due before the countryâs October legislative elections, with the next review due after those elections.\n- What the EFF is and how reviews/disbursements work: The EFF supports countries facing mediumâterm balanceâofâpayments problems due to structural weaknesses. Access to IMF resources is phased, and disbursements are conditional on policy performance assessed at periodic reviews.\n\nKey definitions and references for forecasters:\n- Extended Fund Facility (EFF): An IMF lending facility supporting multiâyear structural reform programs; periodic reviews assess performance and, when completed by the Executive Board, typically âenableâ access to the next disbursement tranche.\n- âSecond reviewâ (in this question): The second periodic program review under Argentinaâs 48âmonth EFF arrangement approved April 11, 2025.\n- IMF Executive Board: The decisionâmaking body that formally completes reviews under IMF arrangements; see the Board phrasing and role as used in the July 31, 2025 Argentina press release (âExecutive Board completed the first review ⌠enabling ⌠disbursementâ).\n- Argentina Time (ART): The official time in Argentina is UTCâ03:00 yearâround (no daylight saving time). Buenos Aires observes ART.\n\nPrimary sources to monitor:\n- IMF News/Press Releases related to Argentina (example press release format: PR25272 for the first review) and IMF Staff Country Reports pages on imf.org. A qualifying IMF publication will explicitly state that the Executive Board completed the second review and that this completion enabled/approved a (next) disbursement.\n- For general program context: the April 11, 2025 approval release and subsequent reporting on review timing and target adjustments.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"60050d4056466a0e\"}}`" }, { "id": 40686, "title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCRâs cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 2024-12-08 reach at least 1,400,000?", "short_title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCRâs cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to", "url_title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCRâs cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to", "slug": "by-2025-12-31-235959-utc-will-unhcrs-cumulative-estimate-of-syrian-refugees-who-have-returned-to", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.672486Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T12:59:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:04.269819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.902887Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T12:59:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40282, "title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCRâs cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 2024-12-08 reach at least 1,400,000?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.672945Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T12:59:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:59.991545Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of context as of 2025-09-30:\n- UNHCR reported that in the nine months following 2024-12-08, one million Syrians had returned to their country. UN News also attributes this nine-month return figure to UNHCR.\n- UNHCRâs Syria Operational Update indicates approximately 844,000 Syrian refugees returned from abroad between 2024-12-08 and end-August 2025 (explicitly refugees, excluding IDPs).\n- UNHCRâs Operational Data Portal for Syria references UNHCR preparations for the projected return of up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees during 2025 and hosts ongoing situation updates and profiles of returnees.\n- UNHCR published a profile of individuals returned since 2024-12-08 through 2025-02-13, estimating 279,620 Syrians had returned by that date. The profile notes figures are derived by triangulating sources inside and outside Syria, including UNHCR offices and government sources in TĂźrkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.\n- Distinguish refugees from internally displaced persons (IDPs): UNHCR separately reported large numbers of IDP returnees; however, this question concerns only refugee returns (people returning from outside Syria).\n\nDefinitions and key terms:\n- Syrian refugee: A person of Syrian nationality or formerly habitual resident of Syria who sought refuge outside Syria and is counted by UNHCR as a refugee returnee to Syria. For general reference on refugee status, see the 1951 Refugee Convention framework (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee) In this question, ârefugeeâ is operationalized as UNHCRâs category used in its public reporting of ârefugee returnsâ to Syria.\n- Returned to Syria / refugee return: Movement of a Syrian refugee from a host country back into Syria, as captured in UNHCRâs public reporting (may include spontaneous/self-organized and UNHCR-facilitated voluntary returns). This excludes returns of internally displaced persons within Syria.\n- Cumulative estimate since 2024-12-08: The total number UNHCR reports for âSyrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 8 December 2024,â not a figure computed by summing subcomponents. Use the single cumulative figure UNHCR publishes (in press releases, country updates, or the Operational Data Portal).\n\nData sources UNHCR uses and publishes:\n- UNHCR press releases and news updates (e.g., the 2025-09-24 press release reporting one million returns).\n- UN News items quoting UNHCR figures.\n- UNHCR Operational Data Portal â Syria country page, where UNHCR posts return profiles and ongoing updates and planning figures.\n- UNHCR Syria Operational Updates with disaggregated returns and clarifications on refugee vs IDP figures.\n\nWhy the threshold may be uncertain:\n- As of 2025-09-24, UNHCR reported one million refugee returns since 2024-12-08. UNHCR planning references up to 1.5 million returns in 2025. The questionâs 1.4 million threshold is above the current reported total and below the planning ceiling, creating plausible uncertainty over whether returns will continue at a pace sufficient to reach 1.4 million by year-end.\n\nAdditional references for clarity:\n- Refugee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee\n- Internally displaced person: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internally_displaced_person\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"a34b18e613c28a4c\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Observation window and time zone:\n- Eligible returns are those counted by UNHCR as having occurred on or after 2024-12-08 00:00:00 UTC.\n- The question resolves based on UNHCRâs latest official publication issued on or before 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolution rule:\n- Resolve Yes if UNHCR, in any official publication (UNHCR website press release/news, UNHCR Operational Data Portal Syria country content, or UNHCR Syria Operational Update) published on or before 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, explicitly reports the cumulative number of Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 2024-12-08 as equal to or greater than 1,400,000.\n- Resolve No if the latest UNHCR publication by that time reports a cumulative figure strictly less than 1,400,000, or if UNHCR does not publish an explicit cumulative figure for ârefugee returns to Syria since 8 December 2024â by the resolution time.\n\nWhat counts as an eligible source:\n- Primary sources must be UNHCR publications hosted on unchr.org or UNHCRâs Operational Data Portal (data.unhcr.org) and clearly attributable to UNHCR. ReliefWeb postings of UNHCR documents are acceptable only when they reproduce an original UNHCR document verbatim and with date attribution. UN News citing UNHCR figures may be used only as a secondary confirmation when the UNHCR original is available; if the original is not accessible, UN News quoting UNHCR is acceptable with clear attribution.\n\nCounting and phrasing rules:\n- Acceptable formulations indicating the threshold is met include: a precise number âĽ1,400,000; â1.4 millionâ or âat least/over/more than 1.4 million.â\n- Do not count formulations such as âalmost/nearly/around 1.4 millionâ unless a precise number âĽ1,400,000 is also given in the same or a later UNHCR publication by the resolution time.\n- Use the single cumulative figure UNHCR provides; do not compute totals by summing subcomponents.\n\nTie-breaker and conflicts:\n- If multiple UNHCR publications exist, use the one with the latest publication date/time on or before 2025-12-31 and referring explicitly to âsince 8 December 2024.â If there is a discrepancy between UNHCR sources, prefer the most recent original UNHCR source over reprints or media summaries.\n\nExclusions:\n- Internally displaced person (IDP) returns within Syria do not count toward this total. Only refugee returns from abroad as reported by UNHCR count.\n\nVerification steps (for resolvers):\n1) Check UNHCRâs Syria country page on the Operational Data Portal for the most recent update containing the cumulative figure for ârefugee returns since 8 December 2024â.\n2) Check UNHCRâs global website for any press release or Syria Operational Update with an explicit cumulative figure.\n3) If the UNHCR original is not accessible by the resolution time, verify an UN News item that quotes UNHCRâs figure.\n4) Apply the counting and phrasing rules above to resolve Yes/No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40686, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of context as of 2025-09-30:\n- UNHCR reported that in the nine months following 2024-12-08, one million Syrians had returned to their country. UN News also attributes this nine-month return figure to UNHCR.\n- UNHCRâs Syria Operational Update indicates approximately 844,000 Syrian refugees returned from abroad between 2024-12-08 and end-August 2025 (explicitly refugees, excluding IDPs).\n- UNHCRâs Operational Data Portal for Syria references UNHCR preparations for the projected return of up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees during 2025 and hosts ongoing situation updates and profiles of returnees.\n- UNHCR published a profile of individuals returned since 2024-12-08 through 2025-02-13, estimating 279,620 Syrians had returned by that date. The profile notes figures are derived by triangulating sources inside and outside Syria, including UNHCR offices and government sources in TĂźrkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.\n- Distinguish refugees from internally displaced persons (IDPs): UNHCR separately reported large numbers of IDP returnees; however, this question concerns only refugee returns (people returning from outside Syria).\n\nDefinitions and key terms:\n- Syrian refugee: A person of Syrian nationality or formerly habitual resident of Syria who sought refuge outside Syria and is counted by UNHCR as a refugee returnee to Syria. For general reference on refugee status, see the 1951 Refugee Convention framework (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee) In this question, ârefugeeâ is operationalized as UNHCRâs category used in its public reporting of ârefugee returnsâ to Syria.\n- Returned to Syria / refugee return: Movement of a Syrian refugee from a host country back into Syria, as captured in UNHCRâs public reporting (may include spontaneous/self-organized and UNHCR-facilitated voluntary returns). This excludes returns of internally displaced persons within Syria.\n- Cumulative estimate since 2024-12-08: The total number UNHCR reports for âSyrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 8 December 2024,â not a figure computed by summing subcomponents. Use the single cumulative figure UNHCR publishes (in press releases, country updates, or the Operational Data Portal).\n\nData sources UNHCR uses and publishes:\n- UNHCR press releases and news updates (e.g., the 2025-09-24 press release reporting one million returns).\n- UN News items quoting UNHCR figures.\n- UNHCR Operational Data Portal â Syria country page, where UNHCR posts return profiles and ongoing updates and planning figures.\n- UNHCR Syria Operational Updates with disaggregated returns and clarifications on refugee vs IDP figures.\n\nWhy the threshold may be uncertain:\n- As of 2025-09-24, UNHCR reported one million refugee returns since 2024-12-08. UNHCR planning references up to 1.5 million returns in 2025. The questionâs 1.4 million threshold is above the current reported total and below the planning ceiling, creating plausible uncertainty over whether returns will continue at a pace sufficient to reach 1.4 million by year-end.\n\nAdditional references for clarity:\n- Refugee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee\n- Internally displaced person: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internally_displaced_person\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"a34b18e613c28a4c\"}}`" }, { "id": 40685, "title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include âĽ40 PLA aircraft sorties detected operating around Taiwan?", "short_title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include", "url_title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include", "slug": "between-2025-10-15-and-2025-12-31-utc8-will-any-single-taiwan-mnd-daily-reporting-window-include", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.163662Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T08:30:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:25.759604Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.484983Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:30:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40281, "title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include âĽ40 PLA aircraft sorties detected operating around Taiwan?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.164222Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:30:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:22.739933Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Taiwanâs Ministry of National Defense (MND) routinely publishes daily activity summaries for Peopleâs Liberation Army (PLA) operations âoperating around Taiwan,â reporting totals such as âX sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today.â Example entries in 2025 show the phrasing, the 24-hour time window, and the metric used (number of PLA aircraft sorties):\n - â48 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN ships, and 1 official ship ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,â with the window âfrom 6 a.m. Jul. 23 to 6 a.m. Jul. 24 (UTC+8)â.\n - â41 sorties of PLA aircraft and 8 PLAN ships ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,â for the window âfrom 6 a.m. Jul. 3 to 6 a.m. Jul. 4 (UTC+8)â.\n - More recently, late September 2025 daily reports included â33 sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)â for the 24-hour window ending 2025-09-30 , and â19 sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)â for the window ending 2025-09-27.\n- These examples indicate that in mid-2025 there were several high-activity days above 40 sorties, while late-September counts were typically lower (high teens to low 30s), which creates uncertainty about whether another âĽ40-sortie day will occur in the Oct 15âDec 31 period.\n- Time zone: Taiwan uses National Standard Time (UTC+08:00), also commonly referred to as Taiwan Standard Time.\n- Term definition (for reference): The Peopleâs Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed forces of the Peopleâs Republic of China, overseen by the Central Military Commission; it comprises multiple services including the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, among others.\n\nWhat will be measured and why this is forecastable:\n- The metric is the MND-reported total number of âsorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) todayâ for a given 24-hour reporting window. Prior 2025 reports demonstrate that this number can vary substantially day-to-day and has reached âĽ40 on some days while being lower on many others , making the outcome non-trivial.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"20fd6dc9cfe2a96b\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question:\n- Resolve YES if there exists at least one Taiwan MND daily reporting window ending between 2025-10-15 06:00 (UTC+8) and 2025-12-31 06:00 (UTC+8), inclusive, for which the MNDâs daily update reports a total of 40 or more âsorties of PLA aircraftâ detected operating around Taiwan. Otherwise, resolve NO.\n\nKey definitions and scope:\n- Taiwan MND daily reporting window (DARW): The 24-hour period used by Taiwanâs MND in its daily activity posts, typically expressed as âfrom 6 a.m. [date-1] to 6 a.m. [date] (UTC+8)â and summarized with wording such as âX sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) todayâ. For this question, eligible DARWs are those whose end-of-window timestamp is on or after 2025-10-15 06:00 (UTC+8) and on or before 2025-12-31 06:00 (UTC+8), inclusive.\n- Metric to evaluate: The single headline total of âsorties of PLA aircraftâ reported by MND for the DARW (the same count exemplified in the quoted phrasing above). Counts referring to subcategories (e.g., âcrossed the median lineâ or entries by sector) are not used for threshold evaluation.\n- PLA aircraft: Aircraft belonging to the Peopleâs Liberation Army of the Peopleâs Republic of China. The PLA is the PRCâs armed forces, comprising multiple services; for this market we rely solely on the MNDâs daily reported âsorties of PLA aircraftâ total, not any independent classification by the resolver.\n- Time zone: Dates/times in this question refer to Taiwanâs National Standard Time (UTC+08:00).\n\nPrimary resolution source:\n- Taiwan MNDâs official daily posts (any language) that summarize the DARW and include the âas of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) todayâ count of âsorties of PLA aircraft,â e.g., the MND English âMilitary News Updateâ posts which clearly show the phrasing, window, and total.\n\nProcedure and tie-breakers:\n- The resolver will review all eligible DARWs in the specified period. If any eligible DARW has a reported total âĽ40 sorties of PLA aircraft, the market resolves YES; if none do, it resolves NO.\n- If multiple official MND posts for the same DARW provide different totals, the later-released official count will prevail (i.e., an explicit correction supersedes an earlier number).\n- If an official MND web post is temporarily inaccessible, credible archival copies (e.g., the same page cached or archived) or the MNDâs official social media posts for the same DARW may be used. As a last resort, mainstream wire reporting that explicitly cites the MND number for the specific DARW and matches the window and phrasing may be used, provided it is consistent with other official communications.\n\nExamples to guide interpretation (non-exhaustive):\n- A post stating â48 sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,â with window âfrom 6 a.m. Jul. 23 to 6 a.m. Jul. 24 (UTC+8),â would count as âĽ40 for the DARW ending 2025-07-24 06:00 (UTC+8). If an analogous post occurs for any eligible DARW in the Oct 15âDec 31 window (as defined above), the question resolves YES.\n- A post stating â33 sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,â for the window ending 2025-09-30 06:00 (UTC+8), is below threshold and would not trigger a YES by itself.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40685, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Taiwanâs Ministry of National Defense (MND) routinely publishes daily activity summaries for Peopleâs Liberation Army (PLA) operations âoperating around Taiwan,â reporting totals such as âX sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today.â Example entries in 2025 show the phrasing, the 24-hour time window, and the metric used (number of PLA aircraft sorties):\n - â48 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN ships, and 1 official ship ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,â with the window âfrom 6 a.m. Jul. 23 to 6 a.m. Jul. 24 (UTC+8)â.\n - â41 sorties of PLA aircraft and 8 PLAN ships ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,â for the window âfrom 6 a.m. Jul. 3 to 6 a.m. Jul. 4 (UTC+8)â.\n - More recently, late September 2025 daily reports included â33 sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)â for the 24-hour window ending 2025-09-30 , and â19 sorties of PLA aircraft ⌠as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)â for the window ending 2025-09-27.\n- These examples indicate that in mid-2025 there were several high-activity days above 40 sorties, while late-September counts were typically lower (high teens to low 30s), which creates uncertainty about whether another âĽ40-sortie day will occur in the Oct 15âDec 31 period.\n- Time zone: Taiwan uses National Standard Time (UTC+08:00), also commonly referred to as Taiwan Standard Time.\n- Term definition (for reference): The Peopleâs Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed forces of the Peopleâs Republic of China, overseen by the Central Military Commission; it comprises multiple services including the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, among others.\n\nWhat will be measured and why this is forecastable:\n- The metric is the MND-reported total number of âsorties of PLA aircraft ⌠detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) todayâ for a given 24-hour reporting window. Prior 2025 reports demonstrate that this number can vary substantially day-to-day and has reached âĽ40 on some days while being lower on many others , making the outcome non-trivial.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"20fd6dc9cfe2a96b\"}}`" }, { "id": 40684, "title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any part of the West Bank between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any p", "url_title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any p", "slug": "will-israel-enact-and-publish-an-act-applying-israeli-law-jurisdiction-and-administration-to-any-p", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.711969Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T08:24:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:52.214133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.970531Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:24:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40280, "title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any part of the West Bank between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.712436Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:24:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:49.087063Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: On Sept 21, 2025, Reuters reported Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would propose that the cabinet apply sovereignty in the West Bankâdescribed as de facto annexation. On Sept 25, 2025, President Donald Trump stated he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, signaling strong external constraints on any formal move. In Israeli legal practice, âapplication of sovereigntyâ has historically been effected via laws or government decrees that extend Israeli âlaw, jurisdiction and administrationâ to a territory (e.g., the Golan Heights Law of Dec 14, 1981: âThe Law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall apply to the Golan HeightsâŚâ ). Israel also applied its law to Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law (1980), which the Israeli Supreme Court treated as annexation of East Jerusalem.\n\nDefinitions and data sources a forecaster should know:\n- West Bank: A territory west of the Jordan River with an area of about 5,660 km²; within Israel it is often referred to by the biblical names âJudea and Samaria.â For the purposes of this question, âWest Bankâ excludes areas incorporated into Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law.\n- Government of Israel: The executive authority (Cabinet) composed of ministers led by the Prime Minister; executive power is vested in the Government per Israelâs Basic Laws.\n- Reshumot (Israelâs Official Gazette): The law gazette of record publishing official acts. Relevant series include Sefer Ha-Chukkim (primary legislation passed by the Knesset), Kovetz Takanot (secondary legislation such as regulations and orders), and Yalkut HaPirsumim (administrative notifications and government notices). These are authoritative publication venues for official acts and decrees.\n\nWhy this matters and why uncertainty is meaningful: Ben-Gvirâs declared intention to propose applying sovereignty to parts of the West Bank suggests pressure within the Israeli coalition for formal moves , while the U.S. Presidentâs stated opposition raises the likelihood of deterrents or delays. Formal annexation-like acts in Israel typically use legally specific phrasing (âlaw, jurisdiction and administration⌠shall applyâ), offering a clear, verifiable signal. Given these opposing forces, a formal act within the remainder of 2025 is plausible yet uncertain and would be geopolitically consequential.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will be publications in Reshumotâs Sefer Ha-Chukkim (Knesset laws) or Yalkut HaPirsumim/Kovetz Takanot (government decrees or orders), which are the official record of laws and government acts in Israel. If an act occurs, it will also be widely reported by major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP), but the official gazette provides the definitive legal record.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"13d322f1c03113ca\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window: Events count if they occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolve Yes if, during the time window, Israel enacts and publishes in Reshumot an official act that explicitly applies Israeli civil law to any defined territorial area within the West Bank (excluding areas of Jerusalem covered by the Jerusalem Law), using the operative phrasing or its clear legal equivalent. Specifically:\n- Qualifying acts:\n - A Knesset law published in Sefer Ha-Chukkim that states Israeli âlaw, jurisdiction and administrationâ shall apply to a described area within the West Bank (or unambiguously states that Israeli law shall apply or that the area is annexed to the State of Israel).\n - A government decree, regulation, or order published in Kovetz Takanot or Yalkut HaPirsumim that explicitly extends Israeli âlaw, jurisdiction and administrationâ (or unambiguously applies Israeli law/annexes) to a described area within the West Bank.\n\n- Territorial scope and definitions:\n - âWest Bankâ refers to the territory west of the Jordan River commonly known as the West Bank and, for this question, excludes any area legally incorporated into Jerusalem under the Jerusalem Law. The West Bank is also known by the biblical names âJudea and Samariaâ within Israel.\n - âExplicitly applies Israeli lawâ means the text of the act includes the Golan Heights Lawâstyle operative phrasingâe.g., âThe law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall applyâŚââor a clear legal equivalent indicating Israeli civil law is extended to the territory, consistent with past annexation-like acts.\n - The area must be described with sufficient specificity (e.g., named locality, map reference, coordinates, or a delineated administrative zone) so that a reasonable verifier can determine it lies within the West Bank as defined above.\n\n- Non-qualifying actions:\n - Draft bills not enacted, cabinet proposals, party platforms, symbolic motions, press statements, or military/administrative orders that do not extend Israeli civil law/sovereignty to territory do not count.\n - Acts applying Israeli law to areas of Jerusalem (already covered by Jerusalem Law) do not count.\n\nVerification and sources:\n- Primary: Reshumot entries (Sefer Ha-Chukkim for enacted laws; Kovetz Takanot/Yalkut HaPirsumim for decrees and administrative notices). The actâs text must contain the operative phrasing or clear legal equivalent extending Israeli law to a West Bank area.\n- Secondary corroboration (if needed for context): major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP) will report on any such act , but the official gazette publication is required for a Yes.\n\nResolve No if no qualifying act is published in Reshumot during the time window.\n\nAmbiguity handling:\n- If an act ambiguously references âsovereigntyâ without extending Israeli civil law or uses wording that cannot reasonably be interpreted as applying Israeli law/jurisdiction/administration, resolve No.\n- If territorial description is unclear, use the actâs accompanying maps/coordinates or recognized place names to confirm it lies within the West Bank as defined; if still indeterminate, resolve No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40684, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: On Sept 21, 2025, Reuters reported Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would propose that the cabinet apply sovereignty in the West Bankâdescribed as de facto annexation. On Sept 25, 2025, President Donald Trump stated he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, signaling strong external constraints on any formal move. In Israeli legal practice, âapplication of sovereigntyâ has historically been effected via laws or government decrees that extend Israeli âlaw, jurisdiction and administrationâ to a territory (e.g., the Golan Heights Law of Dec 14, 1981: âThe Law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall apply to the Golan HeightsâŚâ ). Israel also applied its law to Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law (1980), which the Israeli Supreme Court treated as annexation of East Jerusalem.\n\nDefinitions and data sources a forecaster should know:\n- West Bank: A territory west of the Jordan River with an area of about 5,660 km²; within Israel it is often referred to by the biblical names âJudea and Samaria.â For the purposes of this question, âWest Bankâ excludes areas incorporated into Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law.\n- Government of Israel: The executive authority (Cabinet) composed of ministers led by the Prime Minister; executive power is vested in the Government per Israelâs Basic Laws.\n- Reshumot (Israelâs Official Gazette): The law gazette of record publishing official acts. Relevant series include Sefer Ha-Chukkim (primary legislation passed by the Knesset), Kovetz Takanot (secondary legislation such as regulations and orders), and Yalkut HaPirsumim (administrative notifications and government notices). These are authoritative publication venues for official acts and decrees.\n\nWhy this matters and why uncertainty is meaningful: Ben-Gvirâs declared intention to propose applying sovereignty to parts of the West Bank suggests pressure within the Israeli coalition for formal moves , while the U.S. Presidentâs stated opposition raises the likelihood of deterrents or delays. Formal annexation-like acts in Israel typically use legally specific phrasing (âlaw, jurisdiction and administration⌠shall applyâ), offering a clear, verifiable signal. Given these opposing forces, a formal act within the remainder of 2025 is plausible yet uncertain and would be geopolitically consequential.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will be publications in Reshumotâs Sefer Ha-Chukkim (Knesset laws) or Yalkut HaPirsumim/Kovetz Takanot (government decrees or orders), which are the official record of laws and government acts in Israel. If an act occurs, it will also be widely reported by major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP), but the official gazette provides the definitive legal record.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"13d322f1c03113ca\"}}`" }, { "id": 40683, "title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "short_title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "url_title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "slug": "will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-2025-new-jersey-gubernatorial-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.269961Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T08:00:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:43.327123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.480377Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:00:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40279, "title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.270365Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:00:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:32.706613Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. The major-party nominees are Mikie Sherrill (Democratic) and Jack Ciattarelli (Republican). New Jersey elects the governor and lieutenant governor on a single joint ticket in the general election. Sherrillâs announced running mate is Dale Caldwell; Ciattarelliâs is Jim Gannon. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited and ineligible to run again. For context, the 2021 gubernatorial race was decided by 3.2 percentage points, narrower than 2017, and Democrats carried the state by 5.9 points in the 2024 presidential election.\n\nPrimary and results infrastructure: AP News maintains a 2025 New Jersey election results project page and provides race calls (declaring winners) for covered contests [4b23a]. The New Jersey Division of Elections publishes official results and certifications, including âGeneral Election Certifications,â which serve as the stateâs official determination of winners.\n\nHelpful definitions/links: Governor of New Jersey (overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_New_Jersey. Democratic Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States). Republican Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States). Coordinated joint ticket concept (running mate): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_mate. Time standard for this question: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"6634329250229076\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the official outcome of the New Jersey 2025 general election for governor.\n\nStart and end of observation window: Only outcomes and sources available between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC are considered for resolution. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2025.\n\nDefinitions (with disambiguation):\n- Democratic nominee: The individual who appears on the 2025 New Jersey general election ballot as the Democratic Partyâs candidate for governor. If the original nominee withdraws, dies, or is replaced consistent with New Jersey law, âDemocratic nomineeâ refers to the replacement Democratic candidate listed on the general-election ballot on election day. (General party definitions linked in Background.)\n- Win / Winner: The gubernatorial-lieutenant gubernatorial ticket certified by the State of New Jersey as elected in the 2025 general election for governor, via the New Jersey Division of Electionsâ official âGeneral Election Certificationsâ; New Jersey elects governor and lieutenant governor on a single ticket.\n\nPrimary resolution source (authoritative):\n- Resolve âYesâ if, by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, the New Jersey Division of Elections publishes its official 2025 General Election Certifications indicating that the Democratic Party gubernatorial ticket is elected; resolve âNoâ if those certifications indicate any other ticket is elected.\n\nSecondary resolution source (fallback if certification not posted by the deadline):\n- If the above certification is not publicly available by the deadline, resolve based on The Associated Press race call for the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election as displayed on APâs 2025 New Jersey election results project page by the deadline [4b23a].\n\nTies and contingencies:\n- If a recount or court proceeding delays certification past the deadline, the AP race call (if available by the deadline) will be used as specified above [4b23a]. If both an official state certification and an AP call are available by the deadline and they conflict (highly unlikely), the stateâs official certification takes precedence.\n\nAll times are in UTC. The question resolves Yes if and only if the Democratic nomineeâs gubernatorial ticket wins per the applicable source above; otherwise, No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40683, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. The major-party nominees are Mikie Sherrill (Democratic) and Jack Ciattarelli (Republican). New Jersey elects the governor and lieutenant governor on a single joint ticket in the general election. Sherrillâs announced running mate is Dale Caldwell; Ciattarelliâs is Jim Gannon. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited and ineligible to run again. For context, the 2021 gubernatorial race was decided by 3.2 percentage points, narrower than 2017, and Democrats carried the state by 5.9 points in the 2024 presidential election.\n\nPrimary and results infrastructure: AP News maintains a 2025 New Jersey election results project page and provides race calls (declaring winners) for covered contests [4b23a]. The New Jersey Division of Elections publishes official results and certifications, including âGeneral Election Certifications,â which serve as the stateâs official determination of winners.\n\nHelpful definitions/links: Governor of New Jersey (overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_New_Jersey. Democratic Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States). Republican Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States). Coordinated joint ticket concept (running mate): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_mate. Time standard for this question: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"6634329250229076\"}}`" }, { "id": 40682, "title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional monetary fine under the Digital Markets Act against any gatekeeper (excluding the 23 Apr 2025 Apple/Meta fines)?", "short_title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional moneta", "url_title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional moneta", "slug": "between-15-oct-and-31-dec-2025-will-the-european-commission-announce-at-least-one-additional-moneta", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.785177Z", "published_at": "2025-11-22T14:23:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:01:11.450300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.025485Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T14:23:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40278, "title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional monetary fine under the Digital Markets Act against any gatekeeper (excluding the 23 Apr 2025 Apple/Meta fines)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.785629Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T14:23:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:08.777493Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- On 23 April 2025, the European Commission announced its first non-compliance decisions under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), finding Apple and Meta in breach and imposing fines of âŹ500 million and âŹ200 million, respectively. The official press materials characterize these as the first non-compliance decisions adopted under the DMA (see EC Press Corner release and DMA news page).\n- The Commission opened non-compliance investigations against Alphabet, Apple, and Meta on 25 March 2024, targeting issues including anti-steering rules in app stores, self-preferencing in search, and Metaâs âpay or consentâ data model. The Commission aimed to conclude these proceedings within 12 months and noted that infringements can lead to fines of up to 10% of worldwide turnover (or up to 20% for repeat infringements).\n- On 19 March 2025, the Commission sent preliminary findings to Alphabet regarding alleged failures to comply with DMA obligations related to Google Search and Google Play, a procedural step that can precede a non-compliance decision and potential fine.\n- Gatekeepers and services: The EC maintains a list of designated gatekeepers and core platform services (CPS). As of updates shown in 2025, entries include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple (including iPadOS designated on 29 April 2024), ByteDance, Meta, Microsoft, and Booking.com; Meta was undesignated for Facebook Marketplace as an online intermediation service on 23 April 2025. In total, 23 CPS are shown as designated on the EC page.\n- Fines under the DMA: The DMA provides for fines up to 10% of total worldwide turnover for infringements, and up to 20% for repeat offences; it also provides for periodic penalty payments (up to 5% of average daily turnover) distinct from one-off fines. The Commissionâs public EUR-Lex summary states these thresholds and distinguishes periodic penalty payments from fines.\n\nWhy this is forecastable: After the April 2025 Apple/Meta fines, additional DMA enforcement activityâespecially toward Alphabet and other gatekeepersâremains plausible before year-end but is not assured. Forecasters can track EC press outputs (Press Corner, DMA news) and companiesâ remedial actions to handicap the likelihood of another monetary fine being announced within the stated window.\n\nKey references and definitions for forecasters:\n- Digital Markets Act (Regulation (EU) 2022/1925): overview and enforcement powers including fines and periodic penalty payments (EUR-Lex summary).\n- EC press materials on the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta non-compliance decisions (Press Corner PDF; DMA news item).\n- Investigations and procedural posture (EC DMA news items on investigations and preliminary findings).\n- EC gatekeepers page for background on designated undertakings and CPS.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"358d263253161127\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive), will the European Commission announce at least one additional monetary fine under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) against any gatekeeper, excluding the fines announced on 23 April 2025 against Apple and Meta?\n\nDefinitions (with authoritative references):\n- Digital Markets Act (DMA): Regulation (EU) 2022/1925 governing gatekeepers of core platform services. The EUR-Lex public summary describes enforcement powers and fine thresholds (up to 10% of worldwide turnover, up to 20% for repeat offences) and periodic penalty payments (up to 5% of average daily turnover).\n- Gatekeeper: An undertaking designated by the European Commission under the DMA for one or more core platform services; for background and current designations see the EC gatekeepers page. For resolution purposes here, it is sufficient that the Commissionâs announcement explicitly indicates the addressee is a gatekeeper under the DMA.\n- Monetary fine under the DMA: A one-off financial penalty imposed by the Commission in a non-compliance decision pursuant to the DMA (Article 30 framework, as summarized on EUR-Lex), distinct from periodic penalty payments (Article 31 framework) and distinct from fines under other legal bases (e.g., antitrust decisions under TFEU Articles 101/102 or data protection fines). The EUR-Lex summary specifies the fine thresholds and distinguishes periodic penalty payments.\n- Announcement: A publication by the European Commission that communicates the adoption of a non-compliance decision under the DMA imposing a monetary fine, made on an official EC web property, specifically one or more of the following:\n 1) Press Corner press release or statement (ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner), e.g., the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta example ;\n 2) The official DMA news page (digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu), which carries items on DMA decisions and enforcement actions.\n If multiple EC pages exist for the same decision, the earliest displayed publication date across these official EC sources will be used for timing.\n\nTime window and date handling:\n- Eligible announcements are those with an EC-displayed publication date from 15 October 2025 through 31 December 2025 inclusive. If an EC page displays only a calendar date without a time, that calendar date will be used; no time-of-day comparison is required. If both a Press Corner item and a DMA news item exist with different displayed dates for the same decision, the earlier displayed date controls.\n\nInclusions and exclusions:\n- Include: Any EC-announced non-compliance decision under the DMA that imposes a monetary fine (in euros) on any gatekeeper, regardless of which gatekeeper, which core platform service, or the fine amount. Multiple fines announced the same day still satisfy the question if at least one meets the criteria.\n- Exclude: (a) The 23 April 2025 Apple and Meta fines (these are not within the window and are explicitly excluded) ; (b) Periodic penalty payments (ongoing daily/periodic charges) absent a one-off monetary fine ; (c) Non-fine enforcement actions such as statements of objections, preliminary findings, opening or closing investigations, commitments without fines, or guidance documents ; (d) Fines imposed under other legal frameworks (e.g., EU competition law decisions unrelated to the DMA or GDPR enforcement by data protection authorities).\n\nResolution sources and procedure:\n- Primary sources: EC Press Corner and the EC DMA news site. The resolver will search these sites for announcements within the window and verify that the text states that the Commission adopted a non-compliance decision under the DMA imposing a monetary fine, mirroring the form used in the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta materials. The EUR-Lex summary is provided to anchor the fine/penalty definitions and thresholds.\n- Backup sources (only if EC sites are temporarily inaccessible): Credible wire services that reliably report EC decisions (e.g., Reuters), but final resolution will be based on EC publications once accessible. The April 2025 decisions demonstrate the Commissionâs practice of publishing such announcements on its official sites.\n\nOutcome determination:\n- YES if at least one qualifying EC announcement, as defined above, is published with an EC-displayed date between 15 October 2025 and 31 December 2025 inclusive.\n- NO otherwise.\n\nNotes:\n- The specific April 23, 2025 decisions and fines serve only as excluded prior events and as a template for what counts as an âannouncementâ and âmonetary fine under the DMAâ.\n- The Commissionâs earlier opening of proceedings and preliminary findings are background and do not themselves satisfy the criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40682, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- On 23 April 2025, the European Commission announced its first non-compliance decisions under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), finding Apple and Meta in breach and imposing fines of âŹ500 million and âŹ200 million, respectively. The official press materials characterize these as the first non-compliance decisions adopted under the DMA (see EC Press Corner release and DMA news page).\n- The Commission opened non-compliance investigations against Alphabet, Apple, and Meta on 25 March 2024, targeting issues including anti-steering rules in app stores, self-preferencing in search, and Metaâs âpay or consentâ data model. The Commission aimed to conclude these proceedings within 12 months and noted that infringements can lead to fines of up to 10% of worldwide turnover (or up to 20% for repeat infringements).\n- On 19 March 2025, the Commission sent preliminary findings to Alphabet regarding alleged failures to comply with DMA obligations related to Google Search and Google Play, a procedural step that can precede a non-compliance decision and potential fine.\n- Gatekeepers and services: The EC maintains a list of designated gatekeepers and core platform services (CPS). As of updates shown in 2025, entries include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple (including iPadOS designated on 29 April 2024), ByteDance, Meta, Microsoft, and Booking.com; Meta was undesignated for Facebook Marketplace as an online intermediation service on 23 April 2025. In total, 23 CPS are shown as designated on the EC page.\n- Fines under the DMA: The DMA provides for fines up to 10% of total worldwide turnover for infringements, and up to 20% for repeat offences; it also provides for periodic penalty payments (up to 5% of average daily turnover) distinct from one-off fines. The Commissionâs public EUR-Lex summary states these thresholds and distinguishes periodic penalty payments from fines.\n\nWhy this is forecastable: After the April 2025 Apple/Meta fines, additional DMA enforcement activityâespecially toward Alphabet and other gatekeepersâremains plausible before year-end but is not assured. Forecasters can track EC press outputs (Press Corner, DMA news) and companiesâ remedial actions to handicap the likelihood of another monetary fine being announced within the stated window.\n\nKey references and definitions for forecasters:\n- Digital Markets Act (Regulation (EU) 2022/1925): overview and enforcement powers including fines and periodic penalty payments (EUR-Lex summary).\n- EC press materials on the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta non-compliance decisions (Press Corner PDF; DMA news item).\n- Investigations and procedural posture (EC DMA news items on investigations and preliminary findings).\n- EC gatekeepers page for background on designated undertakings and CPS.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"358d263253161127\"}}`" }, { "id": 40681, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 202", "url_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 202", "slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-hold-the-office-of-prime-minister-of-israel-at-2359-utc-on-december-31-202", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.396802Z", "published_at": "2025-11-22T11:32:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:01:52.800481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.599928Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T11:32:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40277, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.397181Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T11:32:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:49.922280Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of September 30, 2025: Benjamin Netanyahu is serving as Prime Minister of Israel, per current wire coverage of his official engagements and calls with world leaders. In mid-July 2025, coalition instability increased: United Torah Judaism (UTJ) quit Netanyahuâs coalition over the conscription bill, leaving his government with a oneâseat majority in the Knesset. The following day, the ultraâOrthodox Shas party pulled its ministers from the cabinet but stated it would remain within the coalition, with reporting again noting that UTJâs walkout left Netanyahu with just a oneâseat parliamentary majority; the Knessetâs summer recess starting July 27 gave Netanyahu time to try to resolve the dispute. Reuters coverage in this period described the government as extremely vulnerable. Definitions and institutional context: ⢠Prime Minister of Israel: The head of government and chief executive of the State of Israel; executive power is vested in the Government, which the prime minister leads. ⢠Acting Prime Minister: A cabinet member designated to temporarily exercise the prime ministerâs powers while the incumbent remains in office (e.g., during temporary incapacity), typically limited to up to 100 consecutive days; the acting prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. ⢠Interim Prime Minister: Appointed when the incumbentâs tenure ends (e.g., death, permanent incapacitation, or disqualification), to run the government until a new government is formed; the interim prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. ⢠Caretaker government: A temporary government that continues performing governmental duties until a new government is formed; during caretaker periods, the incumbent prime minister remains in office (subject to any formal change in incumbency). Time standard: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) is the global primary time standard used for civil time and time zones; it is not adjusted for daylight saving time. Useful references: Prime Minister of Israel (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Israel. Acting prime minister and interim prime minister distinctions (see the above entry). Caretaker government (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caretaker_government. UTC (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time. Recent status reporting: Reuters coverage confirms Netanyahuâs status and activities as prime minister in late September 2025 , and details the July coalition changes and their impact on his majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"3bff64d506277225\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve Yes if, at exactly 23:59:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, Benjamin Netanyahu is the incumbent Prime Minister of Israel. Resolve No otherwise. Definitions for resolution: ⢠\"Incumbent Prime Minister\" means the person holding the office of Prime Minister of Israel at that moment under Israeli law (the head of government and chief executive). ⢠If an acting prime minister is serving while Benjamin Netanyahu remains the incumbent prime minister (e.g., due to temporary incapacity), this counts as Yes. ⢠If an interim prime minister is serving because Netanyahuâs tenure has ended (e.g., resignation, permanent incapacitation beyond the statutory period, death, or disqualification), this counts as No. ⢠During a caretaker period, the incumbent prime minister remains in office unless formally replaced; therefore, if Netanyahu is the incumbent during a caretaker period, this counts as Yes. Confirmation sources: The status will be confirmed using credible reporting from major wire services, specifically Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) or the Associated Press (https://apnews.com) at or immediately around the resolution time [404e31; fb1169; b9b0ee]. If needed for clarification, official Israeli government sources (e.g., the Prime Ministerâs Office on Gov.il) may be used, but wire services alone are sufficient for resolution. Time standard: The resolution moment is defined in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Notes: Only legal incumbency effective by 23:59:00 UTC on December 31, 2025 counts. Announcements of future changes that are not yet effective at the resolution moment do not affect resolution. Claims and sources: Current status of Netanyahu as PM and lateâSeptember activities. July 2025 coalition changes and oneâseat majority [fb1169; b9b0ee]. Definitions of prime minister, acting and interim prime ministers. Caretaker government definition. UTC definition.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40681, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of September 30, 2025: Benjamin Netanyahu is serving as Prime Minister of Israel, per current wire coverage of his official engagements and calls with world leaders. In mid-July 2025, coalition instability increased: United Torah Judaism (UTJ) quit Netanyahuâs coalition over the conscription bill, leaving his government with a oneâseat majority in the Knesset. The following day, the ultraâOrthodox Shas party pulled its ministers from the cabinet but stated it would remain within the coalition, with reporting again noting that UTJâs walkout left Netanyahu with just a oneâseat parliamentary majority; the Knessetâs summer recess starting July 27 gave Netanyahu time to try to resolve the dispute. Reuters coverage in this period described the government as extremely vulnerable. Definitions and institutional context: ⢠Prime Minister of Israel: The head of government and chief executive of the State of Israel; executive power is vested in the Government, which the prime minister leads. ⢠Acting Prime Minister: A cabinet member designated to temporarily exercise the prime ministerâs powers while the incumbent remains in office (e.g., during temporary incapacity), typically limited to up to 100 consecutive days; the acting prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. ⢠Interim Prime Minister: Appointed when the incumbentâs tenure ends (e.g., death, permanent incapacitation, or disqualification), to run the government until a new government is formed; the interim prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. ⢠Caretaker government: A temporary government that continues performing governmental duties until a new government is formed; during caretaker periods, the incumbent prime minister remains in office (subject to any formal change in incumbency). Time standard: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) is the global primary time standard used for civil time and time zones; it is not adjusted for daylight saving time. Useful references: Prime Minister of Israel (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Israel. Acting prime minister and interim prime minister distinctions (see the above entry). Caretaker government (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caretaker_government. UTC (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time. Recent status reporting: Reuters coverage confirms Netanyahuâs status and activities as prime minister in late September 2025 , and details the July coalition changes and their impact on his majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"3bff64d506277225\"}}`" } ] }
. \n\n\n\nSeattle](http://here](https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf).%20%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnSeattle){kind=link}