Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6371, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40637, "title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?", "short_title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-1", "url_title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-1", "slug": "will-the-met-offices-uk-storm-centre-record-at-least-three-storms-as-date-named-between-2025-10-1", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.918568Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:52:00.169510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.228198Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40233, "title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.918985Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and scheme: The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands jointly operate the \"Name our storms\" initiative via the Met Office (UK), Met Éireann (Ireland), and KNMI (Netherlands). The Met Office confirms the 2025/26 names list (Amy, Bram, Chandra, Dave, Eddie, Fionnuala, Gerard, Hannah, Isla, Janna, Kasia, Lilith, Marty, Nico, Oscar, Patrick, Ruby, Stevie, Tadhg, Violet, Wubbo) and the joint scheme partners. The Met Office’s UK Storm Centre page hosts the season’s table titled \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" with a \"Date named\" column and is updated throughout the season with named storms and associated dates.\n\nWhat constitutes a named storm: According to the Met Office, “a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning,” based on the National Severe Weather Warnings Service’s impact and likelihood framework. Storms are usually named for wind impacts but can include rain (e.g., flooding) or snow impacts. Any of the three partners (Met Office, Met Éireann, or KNMI) may assign the next alphabetical name when criteria are met.\n\nSeason timing and recent activity: The Met Office describes the storm-names list as running from early September to late August to align with the period when low-pressure systems are most likely. For context, the 2024/25 season saw six named storms in total, with three occurring between mid-October and early December 2024 (Ashley on Oct 20–21; Bert and Conall on Nov 21–27; Darragh on Dec 6–7). As of 2025-09-30, the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table shows no storms yet populated with a \"Date named\" value, indicating none have been named so far this season.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Met Office UK Storm Centre page (live, continuously updated) is the single source of truth for this question: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nDefinitions used in this question:\n- \"Named storm\" means a weather system that has been formally assigned a name under the joint UK–Ireland–Netherlands \"Name our storms\" scheme, and for which the UK Storm Centre table records a non-empty \"Date named\" entry.\n- \"Date named\" refers to the calendar date shown in the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table on the UK Storm Centre page; this date is used for counting and comparison without inferring a time-of-day unless explicitly shown.\n- \"Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)\" means the inclusive window from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If \"Date named\" is displayed without a time, treat it as the whole calendar day and include it if the date falls within the inclusive range.\n- Only storms that appear as entries in the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table count toward the total, ensuring alignment with the UK–Ireland–Netherlands naming scheme.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"cb5b86b1fb39e195\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Data to check: Use the Met Office UK Storm Centre page’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table and its \"Date named\" column as displayed at or after 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nSteps:\n1) Navigate to the page and locate the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table.\n2) For each distinct storm name listed in that table, read the \"Date named\" entry.\n3) Count how many storms have a \"Date named\" that falls within the inclusive window 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC to 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If the table provides only a calendar date (no time), include any dates from 2025-10-15 through 2025-12-31 inclusive. If a time-of-day is provided, compare using UTC.\n\nOutcome: Resolve Yes if the count is greater than or equal to 3; resolve No otherwise.\n\nEdge cases and clarifications:\n- Each named storm is counted once (distinct names). Revisions or corrections to dates are taken as shown on the UK Storm Centre page at resolution time.\n- Only storms that appear in the UK Storm Centre’s 2025/26 table are eligible for counting (names from other basins or agencies that do not appear in this table do not count).\n- If the UK Storm Centre page is temporarily unavailable, attempt again within a reasonable time window on or shortly after 2025-12-31; the page is maintained continuously by the Met Office.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40637, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762832854.489234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3825 ], "centers": [ 0.4925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762832854.489234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3825 ], "centers": [ 0.4925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5075000000000001, 0.4925 ], "means": [ 0.4977272727272725 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and scheme: The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands jointly operate the \"Name our storms\" initiative via the Met Office (UK), Met Éireann (Ireland), and KNMI (Netherlands). The Met Office confirms the 2025/26 names list (Amy, Bram, Chandra, Dave, Eddie, Fionnuala, Gerard, Hannah, Isla, Janna, Kasia, Lilith, Marty, Nico, Oscar, Patrick, Ruby, Stevie, Tadhg, Violet, Wubbo) and the joint scheme partners. The Met Office’s UK Storm Centre page hosts the season’s table titled \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" with a \"Date named\" column and is updated throughout the season with named storms and associated dates.\n\nWhat constitutes a named storm: According to the Met Office, “a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning,” based on the National Severe Weather Warnings Service’s impact and likelihood framework. Storms are usually named for wind impacts but can include rain (e.g., flooding) or snow impacts. Any of the three partners (Met Office, Met Éireann, or KNMI) may assign the next alphabetical name when criteria are met.\n\nSeason timing and recent activity: The Met Office describes the storm-names list as running from early September to late August to align with the period when low-pressure systems are most likely. For context, the 2024/25 season saw six named storms in total, with three occurring between mid-October and early December 2024 (Ashley on Oct 20–21; Bert and Conall on Nov 21–27; Darragh on Dec 6–7). As of 2025-09-30, the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table shows no storms yet populated with a \"Date named\" value, indicating none have been named so far this season.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Met Office UK Storm Centre page (live, continuously updated) is the single source of truth for this question: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nDefinitions used in this question:\n- \"Named storm\" means a weather system that has been formally assigned a name under the joint UK–Ireland–Netherlands \"Name our storms\" scheme, and for which the UK Storm Centre table records a non-empty \"Date named\" entry.\n- \"Date named\" refers to the calendar date shown in the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table on the UK Storm Centre page; this date is used for counting and comparison without inferring a time-of-day unless explicitly shown.\n- \"Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)\" means the inclusive window from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If \"Date named\" is displayed without a time, treat it as the whole calendar day and include it if the date falls within the inclusive range.\n- Only storms that appear as entries in the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table count toward the total, ensuring alignment with the UK–Ireland–Netherlands naming scheme.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"cb5b86b1fb39e195\"}}`" }, { "id": 40636, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?", "short_title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Co", "url_title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Co", "slug": "between-0000-utc-on-28-september-2025-and-235959-utc-on-31-december-2025-will-the-un-security-co", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.390600Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:42:00.248169Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.723782Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40232, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.391020Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the snapback is: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 (2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and included a “snapback” mechanism which re-applies the provisions of prior Iran-related UNSC resolutions if a JCPOA participant notifies the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran and the Council does not adopt a resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days. In that case, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) apply again as they did before 2231, effective at midnight GMT after the thirtieth day following notification.\n- Current status of snapback: The E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) notified the Council on 2025-08-28, triggering snapback. With no Council resolution adopted to continue relief, the UN reimposed the pre-2015 measures at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025-09-27), completing the snapback process. The reimposed measures cover nuclear, ballistic missile, arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel ban provisions from the listed resolutions.\n- Recent Council votes: On 2025-09-19, the Council failed to adopt a draft to maintain sanctions relief; the recorded vote was four in favour, nine against, two abstentions, and the text “was not adopted as it failed to obtain the required number of votes”. On 2025-09-26, a China–Russia draft for a six‑month technical extension to sanctions relief was also rejected by a vote of four in favour, nine against, and two abstentions, meaning the draft was not adopted; UN News likewise reported that the effort to extend sanctions relief failed and that snapback would proceed that weekend. Independent reporting corroborated the vote count and timing of reimposition (8 p.m. EDT on the Saturday following the vote).\n- Timeline considerations: UNSCR 2231’s 10‑year term was scheduled to cease in October 2025, but the snapback process re-applies earlier resolutions and associated measures regardless; states remain obliged to comply with the reimposed measures absent subsequent Council action.\n- What counts as an adoption procedurally: Security Council decisions on non‑procedural matters require at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member; a resolution that does not obtain the required votes or is vetoed is not adopted. A “United Nations Security Council resolution” is an act adopted by the 15‑member Council; in common practice, adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no P5 veto.\n- Why this is forecastable/high-entropy: The Council has recently been divided (two failed efforts to maintain relief), but could still consider alternative texts to modify, suspend, or carve out elements of the reimposed measures before year‑end. The Security Council Report previewed the late‑September votes and highlighted sharp divisions over legality and timing, suggesting ongoing procedural possibilities but uncertain prospects for passage.\n\nKey terms (with definitions/links):\n- “United Nations Security Council resolution” (UNSCR): A formal decision of the UN Security Council; adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no permanent‑member veto for non‑procedural matters (see UN voting system; general overview).\n- “Snapback” under UNSCR 2231: The mechanism by which, absent a Council resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days of notification of significant non‑performance, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929 re‑apply as they did before 2231.\n- “UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via snapback”: The measures that took effect again at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 pursuant to the snapback process described above, encompassing the obligations under UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929.\n- “Adopted” (re Council action): A draft is adopted if it receives the required number of affirmative votes (at least nine) and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters.\n\nEvidence sources for status quo:\n- UN press releases and meeting records documenting the failed adoption on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26.\n- UN News reporting on the 2025‑09‑26 failure and impending reimposition.\n- E3 and US statements detailing trigger and effective time of reimposition.\n- UN 2231 background page explaining the snapback process and re‑applied resolutions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c997d1ecf2649281\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window and timezone:\n- Eligible events must occur between 00:00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025. The question resolves based on the status as of 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025.\n\nWhat resolves “Yes”:\n- Resolve “Yes” if, within the above window, the UN Security Council adopts a resolution (see definitions) that modifies the scope or application of any of the UN measures reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 snapback process.\n- “Modifies the scope or application” means the adopted resolution does at least one of the following with respect to obligations arising under the reimposed resolutions (UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, 1929): amends, suspends, narrows, terminates in whole or in part, extends relief from, or creates binding exemptions to, these measures as they apply to Iran or to UN Member States’ obligations regarding Iran. Examples that would count include (non‑exhaustive): reinstating elements of sanctions relief terminated by snapback; establishing a binding humanitarian or technical carve‑out that exempts otherwise prohibited transactions; modifying listings/annexes where the legal effect is to change the binding obligations under the reimposed measures; or suspending enforcement of specified provisions for a defined period. The resolution text must make such changes operative vis‑à‑vis at least one of the reimposed measures.\n\nWhat does NOT count:\n- Non‑adopted drafts; presidential statements; press statements; committee guidelines; Secretariat notices; statements by individual member states or groups; actions solely under national/regional sanctions regimes; resolutions unrelated to Iran’s reimposed UN measures; or any text that does not change binding obligations stemming from the reimposed resolutions.\n\nDefinition of “adopted” and voting:\n- “Adopted” means the Council has approved the resolution in accordance with its voting rules (at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters). A draft that fails to obtain the required votes, or is vetoed, is not adopted. For general background on UNSCRs, see.\n\nPrimary resolution sources to use on 31 December 2025:\n- The text of the adopted resolution as published on un.org; the corresponding UN press release summarizing the meeting and vote; or the official meeting record (S/PV number) documenting adoption. The UN press releases for 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26 illustrate how adoption/non‑adoption is recorded. The UN’s description of Council voting procedures provides the adoption standard.\n\nAdjudication notes:\n- If multiple sources conflict, prioritize official UN documents (published resolution text, S/PV meeting record, UN press release). Secondary corroboration (e.g., UN News or major wire services) may be used only if UN primary sources are temporarily unavailable.\n\nStatus checks baseline (for forecasters):\n- As of 2025‑09‑30, snapback was triggered by the E3 on 2025‑08‑28 and completed at 00:00 GMT on 2025‑09‑28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025‑09‑27), restoring the pre‑2015 UN measures. Attempts to extend sanctions relief on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26 failed to be adopted, with the latter effort described by UN News as blocked and with reimposition proceeding that weekend. UNSCR 2231’s scheduled cessation in October 2025 does not negate the effect of snapback in re‑applying prior resolutions; subsequent Council action could nonetheless modify those reimposed measures.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40636, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762831709.499898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762831709.499898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1471589147286822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 29.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the snapback is: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 (2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and included a “snapback” mechanism which re-applies the provisions of prior Iran-related UNSC resolutions if a JCPOA participant notifies the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran and the Council does not adopt a resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days. In that case, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) apply again as they did before 2231, effective at midnight GMT after the thirtieth day following notification.\n- Current status of snapback: The E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) notified the Council on 2025-08-28, triggering snapback. With no Council resolution adopted to continue relief, the UN reimposed the pre-2015 measures at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025-09-27), completing the snapback process. The reimposed measures cover nuclear, ballistic missile, arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel ban provisions from the listed resolutions.\n- Recent Council votes: On 2025-09-19, the Council failed to adopt a draft to maintain sanctions relief; the recorded vote was four in favour, nine against, two abstentions, and the text “was not adopted as it failed to obtain the required number of votes”. On 2025-09-26, a China–Russia draft for a six‑month technical extension to sanctions relief was also rejected by a vote of four in favour, nine against, and two abstentions, meaning the draft was not adopted; UN News likewise reported that the effort to extend sanctions relief failed and that snapback would proceed that weekend. Independent reporting corroborated the vote count and timing of reimposition (8 p.m. EDT on the Saturday following the vote).\n- Timeline considerations: UNSCR 2231’s 10‑year term was scheduled to cease in October 2025, but the snapback process re-applies earlier resolutions and associated measures regardless; states remain obliged to comply with the reimposed measures absent subsequent Council action.\n- What counts as an adoption procedurally: Security Council decisions on non‑procedural matters require at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member; a resolution that does not obtain the required votes or is vetoed is not adopted. A “United Nations Security Council resolution” is an act adopted by the 15‑member Council; in common practice, adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no P5 veto.\n- Why this is forecastable/high-entropy: The Council has recently been divided (two failed efforts to maintain relief), but could still consider alternative texts to modify, suspend, or carve out elements of the reimposed measures before year‑end. The Security Council Report previewed the late‑September votes and highlighted sharp divisions over legality and timing, suggesting ongoing procedural possibilities but uncertain prospects for passage.\n\nKey terms (with definitions/links):\n- “United Nations Security Council resolution” (UNSCR): A formal decision of the UN Security Council; adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no permanent‑member veto for non‑procedural matters (see UN voting system; general overview).\n- “Snapback” under UNSCR 2231: The mechanism by which, absent a Council resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days of notification of significant non‑performance, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929 re‑apply as they did before 2231.\n- “UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via snapback”: The measures that took effect again at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 pursuant to the snapback process described above, encompassing the obligations under UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929.\n- “Adopted” (re Council action): A draft is adopted if it receives the required number of affirmative votes (at least nine) and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters.\n\nEvidence sources for status quo:\n- UN press releases and meeting records documenting the failed adoption on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26.\n- UN News reporting on the 2025‑09‑26 failure and impending reimposition.\n- E3 and US statements detailing trigger and effective time of reimposition.\n- UN 2231 background page explaining the snapback process and re‑applied resolutions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c997d1ecf2649281\"}}`" }, { "id": 40635, "title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "short_title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "url_title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "slug": "will-bangladeshs-foreign-exchange-reserves-gross-be-320-billion-as-of-endnovember-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.932078Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T01:26:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T02:57:00.157408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.202077Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T01:26:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40231, "title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.932604Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T01:26:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025‑09‑30:\n- Bangladesh Bank (BB) publishes a monthly “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” table that lists two series, “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” and “Foreign Exchange Reserves (as per BPM6),” with values shown in million US dollars. As of the latest months available on that page, the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” series shows: June 2025 = 31,772.0; July 2025 = 29,799.8; August 2025 = 31,166.2 (all in million US$). These imply that the gross measure has fluctuated around the low‑to‑mid $30 billions during mid‑2025.\n- BB’s monthly “Exchange Rate & Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics” PDF reports end‑of‑month “Gross international reserve (BPM6)” levels (a narrower, internationally standardized concept). It noted USD 26.74 billion at 30 June 2025 and USD 24.78 billion at end‑July 2025, attributing the July dip partly to Asian Clearing Union settlements.\n- BB’s “Balance of payments [Monthly Data]” page also reports “Gross official reserves” and “Gross official reserves (as per BPM6)” in million US dollars; for July, it shows 29,800 and 24,779, respectively, consistent with the other BB sources at similar dates.\n\nKey definitions/clarifications for forecasters:\n- Target series: “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” exactly as labeled on Bangladesh Bank’s Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly) page; units are million US dollars (“In million US $”). This question does not use the BPM6 series for resolution, but it is noted for context; BPM6 refers to the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition, which defines official reserve assets (components include monetary gold, SDRs, reserve position in the IMF, and other reserve assets).\n- Threshold interpretation: “$32.0 billion” means 32,000.0 million US$. The comparison is made against the November 2025 value as displayed in the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” column on the BB page.\n\nWhy this is forecastable with uncertainty:\n- The gross reserves series has been near but below $32 billion in recent months (31,166.2 million in August; 31,772.0 million in June), making a November reading ≥ 32,000.0 million plausible but not assured. Month‑to‑month swings reflect flows (e.g., remittances, exports/imports), external financing, and outflows such as ACU settlements—drivers that can move the series several hundred million dollars within a few weeks.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"d2321da86ffee0c6\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Resolve “Yes” if Bangladesh Bank’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” for November 2025 is greater than or equal to 32,000.0 million US dollars; otherwise resolve “No”.\n\nPrimary source and exact check:\n- Use the Bangladesh Bank “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” page. Read the value in the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” column for the row corresponding to November 2025 (which, per BB’s presentation, will appear within the fiscal year 2025–2026 section). Units are million US dollars; compare the displayed figure directly to 32,000.0 million (i.e., ≥ 32.0 billion).\n\nTiming and snapshot:\n- Determine the outcome based on the value displayed on the BB page as of 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. If BB later revises figures after that cutoff, revisions are ignored for this question’s resolution.\n\nFallbacks if the primary page is unavailable or missing November 2025 by the cutoff:\n1) Use BB’s “Balance of payments [Monthly Data]” page and take the November 2025 value listed under “Gross official reserves” (in million US$). Treat that figure as equivalent to the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” concept for the purpose of this resolution, and compare it to 32,000.0 million. If both sources are available but disagree, prefer the dedicated “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” page.\n2) If neither page is accessible at the cutoff due to temporary technical issues, use a publicly accessible archived snapshot (e.g., from the Internet Archive) of either page captured on or before 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, applying the same preference order.\n\nNotes:\n- This question is binary (Yes/No). It concerns the November 2025 monthly figure as reported by Bangladesh Bank. It does not use the BPM6 series for resolution, though BPM6 context is provided for background and definitional clarity.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40635, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762829624.122517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762829624.122517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5125, 0.4875 ], "means": [ 0.4934007936507934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025‑09‑30:\n- Bangladesh Bank (BB) publishes a monthly “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” table that lists two series, “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” and “Foreign Exchange Reserves (as per BPM6),” with values shown in million US dollars. As of the latest months available on that page, the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” series shows: June 2025 = 31,772.0; July 2025 = 29,799.8; August 2025 = 31,166.2 (all in million US$). These imply that the gross measure has fluctuated around the low‑to‑mid $30 billions during mid‑2025.\n- BB’s monthly “Exchange Rate & Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics” PDF reports end‑of‑month “Gross international reserve (BPM6)” levels (a narrower, internationally standardized concept). It noted USD 26.74 billion at 30 June 2025 and USD 24.78 billion at end‑July 2025, attributing the July dip partly to Asian Clearing Union settlements.\n- BB’s “Balance of payments [Monthly Data]” page also reports “Gross official reserves” and “Gross official reserves (as per BPM6)” in million US dollars; for July, it shows 29,800 and 24,779, respectively, consistent with the other BB sources at similar dates.\n\nKey definitions/clarifications for forecasters:\n- Target series: “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” exactly as labeled on Bangladesh Bank’s Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly) page; units are million US dollars (“In million US $”). This question does not use the BPM6 series for resolution, but it is noted for context; BPM6 refers to the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition, which defines official reserve assets (components include monetary gold, SDRs, reserve position in the IMF, and other reserve assets).\n- Threshold interpretation: “$32.0 billion” means 32,000.0 million US$. The comparison is made against the November 2025 value as displayed in the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” column on the BB page.\n\nWhy this is forecastable with uncertainty:\n- The gross reserves series has been near but below $32 billion in recent months (31,166.2 million in August; 31,772.0 million in June), making a November reading ≥ 32,000.0 million plausible but not assured. Month‑to‑month swings reflect flows (e.g., remittances, exports/imports), external financing, and outflows such as ACU settlements—drivers that can move the series several hundred million dollars within a few weeks.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"d2321da86ffee0c6\"}}`" }, { "id": 40634, "title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-", "url_title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-", "slug": "will-the-us-implement-an-across-the-board-tariff-on-all-goods-of-colombian-origin-between-2025-10", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.444086Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T21:53:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T23:24:00.217827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.690633Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T21:53:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40230, "title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.444505Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T21:53:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- In late January 2025, the White House threatened to impose emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with an increase to 50% after one week, amid a dispute over deportation flights. Following an agreement under which Colombia accepted deportation flights, the White House stated that the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions would be held in reserve and not signed unless Colombia failed to honor the agreement. Associated press reporting described the subsequent resumption of deportation flights.\n- The United States–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) has been in force since May 15, 2012; under it, most Colombian goods currently enter the United States duty-free (and without the MPF) as the agreement phases in, with near full duty-free treatment by 2028. As of 2024, USTR reports U.S.–Colombia goods trade of roughly $36.6B, with U.S. goods imports from Colombia at $17.9B and exports at $18.7B; total services trade was about $16.7B, with a $2.5B U.S. services surplus.\n- Definitions used below:\n • Tariff: A tax imposed by a government on imported goods, paid by the importer.\n • Country of origin: For U.S. customs purposes, “the country of manufacture, production, or growth of any article of foreign origin entering the United States,” as defined in 19 CFR 134.1(b). CBP applies non-preferential origin rules under 19 CFR Part 134 to determine origin for marking and similar purposes.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The January 2025 contingency left a Colombia-wide tariff package drafted but on hold, creating genuine uncertainty about whether an across-the-board, Colombia-specific tariff will actually be put into effect before year-end. Forecasters can track official actions (e.g., presidential proclamations, executive orders, Federal Register notices, USTR actions, CBP operational guidance) and political/compliance signals from both governments and trade data releases to update their probabilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"9abaabf95c5b9ed3\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question intent: Resolve whether a legally operative, Colombia-specific, across-the-board tariff is actually in effect at any time during the period defined below.\n\nTime window for eligible events: From 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolution:\n- Resolve “Yes” if, at any moment within the window, there is a legally operative U.S. federal measure that imposes an additional customs duty (ad valorem and/or specific) on all goods of Colombian origin (as defined below), regardless of tariff subheading or product, by virtue of their Colombian origin.\n- Resolve “No” otherwise.\n\nRequired characteristics of the qualifying measure:\n1) Scope (across-the-board): The text of the measure must state that it applies to “all goods of Colombia,” “all merchandise imported from Colombia,” or equivalently worded language that makes it applicable to all products of Colombian origin irrespective of HTS heading/subheading. Narrow measures (e.g., limited to specific sectors/products), quotas/TRQs, licensing regimes, sanctions that block imports without imposing a customs duty, enhanced inspections, and visa/immigration restrictions do not count.\n2) Colombia-specific: The measure must explicitly identify Colombia as a covered country. A global tariff applying to all countries does not count. A measure that applies to a list of countries counts if Colombia is explicitly listed and the scope criterion above is met for Colombia.\n3) Legal form and effect: The measure must be enacted through a binding federal instrument (e.g., Presidential Proclamation, Executive Order invoking statutory authority such as IEEPA; determinations and implementing notices by USTR/Commerce/CBP; interim/final rules published in the Federal Register) that has entered into legal effect so that entries of goods of Colombian origin are assessed the additional duty during the window. If a measure is signed but its effective date lies outside the window, it does not count. If it is enjoined nationwide before taking effect, it does not count. If it takes effect and is later suspended/terminated, it counts as long as it was in effect at least briefly within the window.\n\nDefinitions to be used for resolution:\n- “Tariff” means a tax on imported goods collected by customs (e.g., an additional duty rate).\n- “Goods of Colombian origin” means goods whose country of origin is Colombia under U.S. non-preferential origin rules: the country of manufacture, production, or growth, as defined in 19 CFR 134.1(b). For avoidance of doubt, origin determinations follow CBP practice under 19 CFR Part 134 (e.g., substantial transformation), not preferential rules of origin under CTPA.\n- “Across-the-board” means the measure, by its terms, applies to all goods of Colombian origin regardless of product classification, though it may include enumerated carve-outs inherent to U.S. law (e.g., duty-free return of U.S. goods, temporary importations under bond) or explicit exclusions listed in the instrument. The presence of such exclusions does not disqualify the measure as long as the default rule is that all Colombian-origin goods are subject to the specified additional duty.\n\nWhat does NOT qualify:\n- General/global tariffs applicable to all countries; product- or sector-specific duties (e.g., anti-dumping/countervailing duties, safeguard duties) that do not apply to all goods of Colombian origin; non-tariff measures (quotas, embargoes, licensing only, OFAC blocking sanctions) that do not impose a customs duty; measures announced but not legally in effect during the window.\n\nPrimary sources for determination (any one suffices):\n- Federal Register entries for Presidential Proclamations, Executive Orders, interim/final rules, or notices establishing country-specific across-the-board tariff measures.\n- Official White House/Executive Office postings of signed proclamations or executive orders.\n- Harmonized Tariff Schedule (USITC) updates adding entries that impose additional duties on “goods of Colombia” across-the-board.\n- CBP Cargo Systems Messaging Service (CSMS) and/or Customs Bulletins that implement such measures for entry processing.\n\nStatus quo baseline (for forecasters): As of 2025-09-30, there is no across-the-board, Colombia-specific U.S. tariff in effect; the January 2025 tariff package was drafted but held in reserve after an agreement on deportation flights. The CTPA remains in force and most Colombian-origin goods enter duty-free, which would be reversed or offset if an across-the-board Colombia tariff were implemented. Latest USTR figures indicate U.S. goods imports from Colombia were about $17.9B in 2024, suggesting material trade exposure to any such measure.\n\nCitations supporting background and definitions: White House statement holding IEEPA tariffs in reserve ; Reuters reporting on the 25%–50% threatened tariffs and subsequent hold following an agreement ; AP reporting on the resumption of deportation flights ; CBP page confirming CTPA effective date and duty-free status for most goods ; USTR country/trade summary for 2024 values ; Definition of tariff ; Definition of country of origin.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40634, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762816505.14427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762816505.14427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19775581395348843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 15.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 21.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- In late January 2025, the White House threatened to impose emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with an increase to 50% after one week, amid a dispute over deportation flights. Following an agreement under which Colombia accepted deportation flights, the White House stated that the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions would be held in reserve and not signed unless Colombia failed to honor the agreement. Associated press reporting described the subsequent resumption of deportation flights.\n- The United States–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) has been in force since May 15, 2012; under it, most Colombian goods currently enter the United States duty-free (and without the MPF) as the agreement phases in, with near full duty-free treatment by 2028. As of 2024, USTR reports U.S.–Colombia goods trade of roughly $36.6B, with U.S. goods imports from Colombia at $17.9B and exports at $18.7B; total services trade was about $16.7B, with a $2.5B U.S. services surplus.\n- Definitions used below:\n • Tariff: A tax imposed by a government on imported goods, paid by the importer.\n • Country of origin: For U.S. customs purposes, “the country of manufacture, production, or growth of any article of foreign origin entering the United States,” as defined in 19 CFR 134.1(b). CBP applies non-preferential origin rules under 19 CFR Part 134 to determine origin for marking and similar purposes.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The January 2025 contingency left a Colombia-wide tariff package drafted but on hold, creating genuine uncertainty about whether an across-the-board, Colombia-specific tariff will actually be put into effect before year-end. Forecasters can track official actions (e.g., presidential proclamations, executive orders, Federal Register notices, USTR actions, CBP operational guidance) and political/compliance signals from both governments and trade data releases to update their probabilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"9abaabf95c5b9ed3\"}}`" }, { "id": 40633, "title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcements?", "short_title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcem", "url_title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcem", "slug": "will-the-bank-of-england-change-bank-rate-at-either-the-6-november-or-18-december-2025-mpc-announcem", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.830675Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T17:51:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T19:22:00.195797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.168934Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:51:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40229, "title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcements?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.831092Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:51:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of what forecasters need to know as of 2025-09-30 (UTC):\n- What is “Bank Rate”? The Bank of England (BoE) sets Bank Rate, the interest rate it pays on reserves held with it and charges on certain loans to eligible institutions. Bank Rate influences other UK interest rates.\n- When are the relevant meetings? The BoE’s 2025 MPC schedule includes meetings/announcement dates on Thursday 6 November 2025 and Thursday 18 December 2025. The Monetary Policy Summary and minutes are published eight times a year, typically at 12 noon on a Thursday. The BoE explainer page also states: “We will announce our next decision on Thursday 6 November 2025”.\n- Current status quo: At its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, the MPC voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. At its meeting ending on 17 September 2025, the MPC voted 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.00%. The BoE’s explainer page shows “Current Bank Rate 4%” and references the August 2025 reduction.\n- Market expectations (context only): In the September 2025 Market Participants Survey, respondents’ median expected Bank Rate was 4.00% for 6 November 2025 and 3.75% for 18 December 2025; for 6 November, the mean probability mass was concentrated at 4.00% (57.8%) and 3.75% (38.7%).\n- Primary sources to watch on the day: The BoE publishes a “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” page for each meeting (e.g., November 2025 and December 2025 pages are scheduled “to be published at 12pm”). The BoE also maintains an official Bank Rate database with the current and historical Official Bank Rate.\n\nKey definitions and links:\n- Bank Rate (a.k.a. Official Bank Rate): The BoE’s policy rate; see BoE explainer.\n- MPC announcement: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary and minutes publication for the relevant meeting date (links available on the BoE site and “Monetary policy summary and minutes” index page).\n- The two relevant dates are fixed by the BoE’s 2025 schedule: 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: As of late September 2025, Bank Rate is 4.00% following an August cut, and the MPC kept it unchanged in September. There is meaningful uncertainty about whether the MPC will change Bank Rate at one or both late‑2025 meetings, with survey expectations split across 3.75% and 4.00% for November and a 3.75% median for December.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"72b9908ed3997db6\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question and date range:\n- Resolve whether the Bank of England changes Bank Rate at either of the MPC announcements on Thursday 6 November 2025 or Thursday 18 December 2025. Eligible events must occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. All times are UTC.\n\nDefinitions:\n- “Bank Rate” means the Bank of England’s Official Bank Rate, as defined by the BoE (its policy interest rate that influences other UK interest rates).\n- “MPC announcement” means the Bank of England’s published “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” for the relevant meeting date, which the BoE publishes eight times per year, typically at 12 noon on a Thursday. For November and December 2025, the BoE’s schedule specifies announcements on 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025. The BoE also flags that the next decision announcement is on 6 November 2025.\n- “Change (in Bank Rate) at a meeting” is satisfied if the relevant Monetary Policy Summary explicitly states that the MPC voted to set Bank Rate to a level different from the level in effect immediately prior to that announcement (e.g., “voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%” counts as a change; “voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4%” does not). This determination will be based on the wording in the BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary for that meeting.\n\nResolution rule:\n- Resolve Yes if the BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary and minutes for either 6 November 2025 or 18 December 2025 states that the MPC changed Bank Rate (as defined above). Resolve No if both the 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025 Monetary Policy Summaries and minutes state that Bank Rate was maintained (i.e., no change at either meeting).\n\nPrimary resolution sources (any one is sufficient; the Monetary Policy Summary text governs):\n- The BoE’s “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” index, which links to each meeting’s announcement and is published at 12 noon on Thursdays eight times a year.\n- The November 2025 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes page (marked “to be published at 12pm”) and the December 2025 page (marked “to be published at 12pm”).\n\nSecondary corroborating source (if needed):\n- The BoE Official Bank Rate database, which lists the current and historical Official Bank Rate values and can confirm the rate before and after the relevant announcements.\n\nEdge cases and contingencies:\n- Only decisions announced in the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes for the specified 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025 meetings count. Inter‑meeting changes (if any) do not affect resolution unless the change is explicitly decided at one of these two meetings and stated in the corresponding Monetary Policy Summary.\n- If either meeting is rescheduled but the corresponding Monetary Policy Summary for that meeting is still published within 2025, that publication will count for this question; otherwise, if a meeting is cancelled or its Monetary Policy Summary is not published by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, treat that meeting as “no change” for the purpose of this question and resolve based on the remaining meeting.\n- The question resolves as soon as the first of the two specified Monetary Policy Summaries indicating a change is published (Yes), or after the 18 December 2025 publication if neither indicates a change (No).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40633, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762802171.014952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762802171.014952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5730076628352492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 20.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of what forecasters need to know as of 2025-09-30 (UTC):\n- What is “Bank Rate”? The Bank of England (BoE) sets Bank Rate, the interest rate it pays on reserves held with it and charges on certain loans to eligible institutions. Bank Rate influences other UK interest rates.\n- When are the relevant meetings? The BoE’s 2025 MPC schedule includes meetings/announcement dates on Thursday 6 November 2025 and Thursday 18 December 2025. The Monetary Policy Summary and minutes are published eight times a year, typically at 12 noon on a Thursday. The BoE explainer page also states: “We will announce our next decision on Thursday 6 November 2025”.\n- Current status quo: At its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, the MPC voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. At its meeting ending on 17 September 2025, the MPC voted 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.00%. The BoE’s explainer page shows “Current Bank Rate 4%” and references the August 2025 reduction.\n- Market expectations (context only): In the September 2025 Market Participants Survey, respondents’ median expected Bank Rate was 4.00% for 6 November 2025 and 3.75% for 18 December 2025; for 6 November, the mean probability mass was concentrated at 4.00% (57.8%) and 3.75% (38.7%).\n- Primary sources to watch on the day: The BoE publishes a “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” page for each meeting (e.g., November 2025 and December 2025 pages are scheduled “to be published at 12pm”). The BoE also maintains an official Bank Rate database with the current and historical Official Bank Rate.\n\nKey definitions and links:\n- Bank Rate (a.k.a. Official Bank Rate): The BoE’s policy rate; see BoE explainer.\n- MPC announcement: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary and minutes publication for the relevant meeting date (links available on the BoE site and “Monetary policy summary and minutes” index page).\n- The two relevant dates are fixed by the BoE’s 2025 schedule: 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: As of late September 2025, Bank Rate is 4.00% following an August cut, and the MPC kept it unchanged in September. There is meaningful uncertainty about whether the MPC will change Bank Rate at one or both late‑2025 meetings, with survey expectations split across 3.75% and 4.00% for November and a 3.75% median for December.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"72b9908ed3997db6\"}}`" }, { "id": 40632, "title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (Lisbon time)?", "short_title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic betwe", "url_title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic betwe", "slug": "portugal-will-a-chega-deputy-be-elected-secretary-of-the-mesa-of-the-assembly-of-the-republic-betwe", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.105804Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T10:47:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T12:18:00.224396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.532226Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T10:47:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T03:05:09.325614Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40228, "title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (Lisbon time)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.106436Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T10:47:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo and context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is the Mesa and the Secretary role: The Mesa da Assembleia da República (the Assembly’s Bureau) is an organ composed of 1 President, 4 Vice-Presidents, 4 Secretaries, and 4 Vice-Secretaries. During plenary meetings, the Mesa is constituted by the President and the Secretaries. The roles are described on the Assembly’s official “Sobre a Mesa” page.\n- How Mesa members are elected: Under the Regimento da Assembleia da República, Vice-Presidents, Secretaries, and Vice-Secretaries are elected by list, and candidates are considered elected if they obtain an absolute majority of votes of Deputies “em efetividade de funções” (in active office). Elections are conducted by secret ballot. See Article 23 (election and majority) and Article 97 (secret ballot) of the Regimento.\n- Composition and June 2025 election: Following the XVII Legislature’s start, the Assembly announced on 2025-06-03 the election of Mesa members, listing the Secretaries elected: Francisco Figueira (PSD), Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro (CH), Joana Lima (PS), and Germana Rocha (PSD). The current official “Mesa” composition page on parlamento.pt provides the up-to-date list of members and their party affiliations and serves as the authoritative roster.\n- Recent failed attempt to elect a Chega Secretary: On 2025-09-26, Chega’s nominee Francisco Gomes failed to be elected Secretary of the Mesa, receiving 98 votes in favor, 18 against, and 61 blank ballots (177 deputies present). The election required 116 votes in favor (an absolute majority) according to the Assembly’s rules, per reporting by RTP Madeira.\n- Party definition (Chega): Chega (CHEGA!) is a Portuguese political party founded in 2019, characterized as national conservative and right‑wing populist.\n\nWhy this matters for forecasting: After the failed September vote, it is uncertain whether cross‑party bargaining will allow a Chega deputy to obtain the absolute majority required to be elected as a Secretary of the Mesa before the end of 2025. The outcome depends on parliamentary dynamics, attendance, and party strategies under the rules above.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"29cbac6a061ba726\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary (Yes/No). Time window and timezone: The question pertains to elections held between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 and 2025-12-31 23:59:59, Lisbon local time (Europe/Lisbon).\n\nOperational definitions:\n- “Deputy”: A member of Portugal’s Assembly of the Republic (Deputado), as referenced throughout the Regimento da Assembleia da República.\n- “Deputy from Chega”: A Deputy who, at the time of the relevant election, is officially listed on the Assembly’s website as belonging to the Chega parliamentary group (CH). This can be verified via the Deputy’s official profile page and/or listings of parliamentary groups on parlamento.pt.\n- “Secretary of the Mesa”: One of the four “Secretários” that make up the Mesa, distinct from Vice‑Secretaries, as defined on the Assembly’s official Mesa information pages.\n- “Elected”: As per the Regimento, a candidate is considered elected when they obtain an absolute majority of votes of Deputies in active office in a secret‑ballot plenary vote (Regimento Article 23 and Article 97).\n\nResolution source and procedure (primary):\n- Primary source: the official “Mesa” composition page on the Assembly’s website (parlamento.pt) as of 2025-12-31 23:59:59 Lisbon time, which lists the Secretaries and their party affiliations.\n\nWhat counts as Yes:\n- Yes if a person who is a Deputy from Chega is elected to the office of “Secretário da Mesa” in a plenary vote held within the time window, and the Assembly’s official Mesa composition page lists that person as a Secretary by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 Lisbon time. The election must be for the role “Secretário” (not Vice‑Secretário) and must have been conducted by secret ballot with the candidate obtaining an absolute majority of Deputies in active office, per the Regimento.\n- The election date is the date of the plenary vote (as reflected in official Assembly communications such as press releases or records). If multiple such elections occur within the window, any one successful election meeting the above suffices for “Yes.” If the elected Secretary later resigns or is replaced before 2025-12-31, the outcome remains “Yes” provided the election occurred within the window and the official site listed them as Secretary at any time before the resolution timestamp.\n\nWhat counts as No:\n- No if no Deputy from Chega is elected Secretary of the Mesa in the time window, or if any Chega Deputy is only elected outside the time window, or is elected to a different office (e.g., Vice‑Secretary or Vice‑President), or is designated in an acting capacity without a formal election as defined in the Regimento.\n\nSecondary/backup sources:\n- If the primary page is temporarily inaccessible or not yet updated at the resolution timestamp, rely on official Assembly communications on parlamento.pt that announce Mesa elections (e.g., the 2025-06-03 announcement format) , and/or official plenary records posted on the Assembly’s site. In case of rare ambiguity, contemporaneous reporting by major Portuguese outlets (e.g., RTP) may be used to corroborate the occurrence and result of the vote.\n\nNotes:\n- The September 2025 failed vote for Chega’s Francisco Gomes (98 in favor; 116 required) illustrates the absolute‑majority threshold in practice but does not itself resolve this question, as it precedes the start of the counting window.\n- All references to election mechanics (absolute majority; secret ballot; roles) derive from the Regimento and official Mesa pages.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40632, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762775183.581228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762775183.581228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.18965909090909092 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 3.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo and context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is the Mesa and the Secretary role: The Mesa da Assembleia da República (the Assembly’s Bureau) is an organ composed of 1 President, 4 Vice-Presidents, 4 Secretaries, and 4 Vice-Secretaries. During plenary meetings, the Mesa is constituted by the President and the Secretaries. The roles are described on the Assembly’s official “Sobre a Mesa” page.\n- How Mesa members are elected: Under the Regimento da Assembleia da República, Vice-Presidents, Secretaries, and Vice-Secretaries are elected by list, and candidates are considered elected if they obtain an absolute majority of votes of Deputies “em efetividade de funções” (in active office). Elections are conducted by secret ballot. See Article 23 (election and majority) and Article 97 (secret ballot) of the Regimento.\n- Composition and June 2025 election: Following the XVII Legislature’s start, the Assembly announced on 2025-06-03 the election of Mesa members, listing the Secretaries elected: Francisco Figueira (PSD), Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro (CH), Joana Lima (PS), and Germana Rocha (PSD). The current official “Mesa” composition page on parlamento.pt provides the up-to-date list of members and their party affiliations and serves as the authoritative roster.\n- Recent failed attempt to elect a Chega Secretary: On 2025-09-26, Chega’s nominee Francisco Gomes failed to be elected Secretary of the Mesa, receiving 98 votes in favor, 18 against, and 61 blank ballots (177 deputies present). The election required 116 votes in favor (an absolute majority) according to the Assembly’s rules, per reporting by RTP Madeira.\n- Party definition (Chega): Chega (CHEGA!) is a Portuguese political party founded in 2019, characterized as national conservative and right‑wing populist.\n\nWhy this matters for forecasting: After the failed September vote, it is uncertain whether cross‑party bargaining will allow a Chega deputy to obtain the absolute majority required to be elected as a Secretary of the Mesa before the end of 2025. 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After his inauguration in January 2025, [<u>Attorney General Pam Bondi oversaw the release of a first tranche of files in February 2025</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-pamela-bondi-releases-first-phase-declassified-epstein-files). The documents were heavily redacted and included mostly previously known information, leading to criticism that the release fell short of Trump’s transparency pledge. The Department of Justice followed up in July 2025 with [<u>a memo asserting that investigators had found no evidence of a secret “client list”</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407001/dl?inline) and that no further disclosures were planned, which drew backlash from lawmakers and the public.\n\nCongress has attempted to force more disclosure. In mid-2025, the [<u>“Epstein Files Transparency Act”</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405) was introduced, requiring the attorney general to make unclassified records public within 30 days of passage. [<u>Around the same time, the House Oversight Committee published more than 33,000 pages of documents obtained from the Justice Department, though many details were redacted to protect victim identities and ongoing investigations.</u>](https://time.com/7314073/jeffrey-epstein-documents-house-oversight-committee/) These actions reflect the ongoing struggle between legislative pressure for disclosure and executive branch reluctance to release sensitive information. \n\nCourts have largely deferred to the executive branch on this matter. [<u>In August 2025, a federal judge ruled that decisions about Epstein-related file releases should rest with the Trump administration rather than the judiciary</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-admin-better-placed-than-courts-release-epstein-files-judge-says-2025-08-20/), reinforcing the president’s discretion. This places the timeline and scope of further disclosures squarely in the hands of the administration.\n\nAs of late 2025, the Trump administration has released some materials but resisted broader transparency, citing privacy, legal, and investigative constraints. Whether the remaining records will be disclosed before the end of Trump’s term on January 20, 2029, depends on political will, congressional pressure, and potential new revelations that could renew public demand.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before noon ET on Jan. 20, 2029, the Trump administration is confirmed to have released additional Epstein Files in substantially unredacted form to the public, according to official U.S. government sources (e.g., DOJ, National Archives, congressional records) or credible national/international media outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, PBS).\n\n* “Epstein Files” means government-held records (e.g., Department of Justice, FBI, court-related files) explicitly tied to investigations into Jeffrey Epstein or his crimes that include significant new (i.e., previously unreleased) material that is unredacted or minimally redacted.\n* “Released” means that these files are made publicly accessible (e.g., published online by the DOJ, National Archives, or an official government website).\n\nThe independent publication of documents by Congress or the courts, without authorization from the Trump administration, will not count toward resolution.", "fine_print": "If Trump ceases to be the President before January 20, 2029, and this question is still open, it will immediately resolve as No.", "post_id": 40630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763496864.925951, "end_time": 1770830072.558, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763496864.925951, "end_time": 1770830072.558, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.667, 0.333 ], "means": [ 0.34141977983369537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.42550593662906744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.9281905121098191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.31977382568915313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8290023480542336, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-Trump-administration-release-the-Epstein-files)\n\n[<u>During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump pledged to release all government records tied to Epstein if reelected</u>](https://nypost.com/2024/09/03/us-news/trump-suggests-hell-release-jeffrey-epstein-client-list-if-elected/). After his inauguration in January 2025, [<u>Attorney General Pam Bondi oversaw the release of a first tranche of files in February 2025</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-pamela-bondi-releases-first-phase-declassified-epstein-files). The documents were heavily redacted and included mostly previously known information, leading to criticism that the release fell short of Trump’s transparency pledge. The Department of Justice followed up in July 2025 with [<u>a memo asserting that investigators had found no evidence of a secret “client list”</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407001/dl?inline) and that no further disclosures were planned, which drew backlash from lawmakers and the public.\n\nCongress has attempted to force more disclosure. In mid-2025, the [<u>“Epstein Files Transparency Act”</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405) was introduced, requiring the attorney general to make unclassified records public within 30 days of passage. [<u>Around the same time, the House Oversight Committee published more than 33,000 pages of documents obtained from the Justice Department, though many details were redacted to protect victim identities and ongoing investigations.</u>](https://time.com/7314073/jeffrey-epstein-documents-house-oversight-committee/) These actions reflect the ongoing struggle between legislative pressure for disclosure and executive branch reluctance to release sensitive information. \n\nCourts have largely deferred to the executive branch on this matter. [<u>In August 2025, a federal judge ruled that decisions about Epstein-related file releases should rest with the Trump administration rather than the judiciary</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-admin-better-placed-than-courts-release-epstein-files-judge-says-2025-08-20/), reinforcing the president’s discretion. This places the timeline and scope of further disclosures squarely in the hands of the administration.\n\nAs of late 2025, the Trump administration has released some materials but resisted broader transparency, citing privacy, legal, and investigative constraints. Whether the remaining records will be disclosed before the end of Trump’s term on January 20, 2029, depends on political will, congressional pressure, and potential new revelations that could renew public demand." }, { "id": 40629, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "short_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "url_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "slug": "tehran-evacuation-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:55:59.904203Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T20:18:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:32:53.062622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-14T20:18:51.476511Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:33:03.209733Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:33:03.209733Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40225, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:55:59.904581Z", "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian government orders an evacuation of at least 100,000 inhabitants of Tehran County before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* Any Iranian governmental authority with jurisdiction over Tehran County will qualify as the Iranian government for the purpose this question.", "post_id": 40629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further." }, { "id": 40628, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "short_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "url_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "slug": "by-january-1-2026-will-labour-fall-to-4th-in-the-polling-averages", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.334825Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:00:00.651845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.563527Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40224, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.335236Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40610,\"question_id\":40202}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Labour Party reaches #4 in the polling averages, with 3 or more other parties exceeding it [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after November 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40628, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762905086.086428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762905086.086428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3914370039161893 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40610,\"question_id\":40202}}`" }, { "id": 40610, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "short_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "url_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "slug": "by-january-1-2026-will-labour-fall-to-4th-in-the-polling-averages", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T01:04:42.396555Z", "published_at": "2025-11-07T01:13:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T20:04:21.716316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-07T01:15:02.083500Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T00:22:04.522134Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T00:22:04.522134Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40202, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T01:04:42.397083Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T01:13:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T01:13:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Labour Party reaches #4 in the polling averages, with 3 or more other parties exceeding it [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after November 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763416719.811, "end_time": 1763639654.549, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763416719.811, "end_time": 1763639654.549, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3726694554010926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9245473462071343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless." }, { "id": 40608, "title": "Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "Panda Extinct by 2100?", "url_title": "Panda Extinct by 2100?", "slug": "panda-extinct-by-2100", "author_id": 263913, "author_username": "cgiofred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T23:59:45.381806Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T18:36:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:52:59.887795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T18:36:37.512833Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T18:36:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40199, "title": "Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T23:59:45.382242Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T18:36:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T18:36:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T18:36:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda Melanoleuca) is classified as \"vulnerable\" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The Giant Panda has trouble surviving in the wild due to habitat loss and its difficulty of mating, even in captivity. However, its survival is a matter of national prestige for China. The panda's survival seems to test the impact of political will on animal conservation efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the last individual of the Ailuropoda Melanoleuca dies before January 1, 2100.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or the[ <u>IUCN Red List</u>](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/712/121745669 \"IUCN Red List\").", "post_id": 40608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763337169.228725, "end_time": 1857584143.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763337169.228725, "end_time": 1857584143.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04719986782502857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16066607683687129, 1.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda Melanoleuca) is classified as \"vulnerable\" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The Giant Panda has trouble surviving in the wild due to habitat loss and its difficulty of mating, even in captivity. However, its survival is a matter of national prestige for China. The panda's survival seems to test the impact of political will on animal conservation efforts." }, { "id": 40604, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-allow-iaea-to-inspect-its-uranium-stockpile-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.417336Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T17:00:00.457815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.701313Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40193, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.417844Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40437,\"question_id\":40007}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Iran announces an agreement to allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpiles of enriched uranium at the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40604, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762447955.483296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762447955.483296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20028007088024813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 22.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40437,\"question_id\":40007}}`" }, { "id": 40602, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "short_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "url_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "slug": "will-us-import-mexican-cattle-before-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T02:46:22.193525Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:32:53.194577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T18:36:55.635723Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:33:03.209733Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:33:03.209733Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40188, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T02:46:22.193932Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if U.S. imports of cattle from Mexico are permitted to resume before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "A \"phased\" or partial resumption of cattle importation is sufficient for this question to resolve as **Yes.**", "post_id": 40602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763520253.84785, "end_time": 1763636636.217, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763520253.84785, "end_time": 1763636636.217, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.2592963309820474 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0993387550172953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.425814739353524, 1.2010829644391456, 0.22045724352962418, 1.051480790251287, 0.09543546787520314, 1.9586224103258079, 0.9192023368294975, 0.5805438574528169, 0.4978116449507915, 0.20643507047934434, 0.0, 0.15211135533709094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.2425126729529749, 0.0, 0.020655434800179992, 0.0, 0.8600494355428064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7370646316360566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5008694016557328 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"" }, { "id": 40599, "title": "If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?", "short_title": "Orbán wins the 2026 election if he runs?", "url_title": "Orbán wins the 2026 election if he runs?", "slug": "orban-wins-the-2026-election-if-he-runs", "author_id": 113744, "author_username": "blednotik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-04T02:41:28.409337Z", "published_at": "2025-11-05T15:01:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T18:04:08.713654Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-05T15:03:27.423608Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:01:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40181, "title": "If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?", "created_at": "2025-11-04T02:41:28.409737Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:01:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T15:01:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T15:01:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, previously holding the office from 1998 to 2002. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 2026, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. As for November 2025, [Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n)'s main political opponent is [Péter Magyar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_Magyar). Magyar’s political party, [Tisza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party), [now holds a steady lead over Orbán’s Fidesz in independent polls, somewhere between ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[ and ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[10 percent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Viktor Orbán is elected as Prime Minister by the Hungarian National Assembly following the 2026 Parliamentary Election. It will resolve as **No** if he leads a party in the election, but another person is elected as Prime Minister.\n\nIf Viktor Orbán does not lead a party in the 2026 election, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based upon the first person elected PM following the 2026 election. If no PM is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly before another election is held, this question will resolve based upon the first person elected following that election as long as it takes place during 2026. If this does not happen or if no election is held in 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 40599, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763489038.518398, "end_time": 1763712706.249, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763489038.518398, "end_time": 1763712706.249, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5751701914855499 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 1.2994721491460897, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2510683601437402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, previously holding the office from 1998 to 2002. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 2026, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. As for November 2025, [Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n)'s main political opponent is [Péter Magyar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_Magyar). Magyar’s political party, [Tisza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party), [now holds a steady lead over Orbán’s Fidesz in independent polls, somewhere between ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[ and ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[10 percent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)" }, { "id": 40596, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "slug": "will-umaro-sissoco-embalo-be-re-elected-president-of-guinea-bissau-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:13.110183Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T10:50:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T12:21:00.244285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:13.350575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T10:50:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40172, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:13.110589Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T10:50:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40574,\"question_id\":40147}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Umaro Sissoco Embaló wins the 2025 Guinea-Bissau [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election), according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The first round of voting is expected to be held on November 23, 2025, with a runoff taking place if no candidate receives a majority.", "post_id": 40596, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762430238.573905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762430238.573905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21749999999999997, 0.7825 ], "means": [ 0.7564649571583929 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 21.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40574,\"question_id\":40147}}`" }, { "id": 40595, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-december-15-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.592011Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T03:12:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T04:43:00.190332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.860163Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T03:12:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40171, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.592440Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T03:12:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40572,\"question_id\":40146}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before December 15, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40595, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762403828.492457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08499999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762403828.492457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08499999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07522086854613272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.0, 10.0, 13.0, 6.0, 25.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40572,\"question_id\":40146}}`" }, { "id": 40594, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-burbank-california-in-november-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.982718Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:26:00.479299Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.380408Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40170, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.983198Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40571,\"question_id\":40145}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Hollywood Burbank Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40594, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762266330.628001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762266330.628001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5415030262215726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40571,\"question_id\":40145}}`" }, { "id": 40593, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-yuma-arizona-in-november-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.583574Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:26:00.523442Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.795293Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40169, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.583973Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40570,\"question_id\":40144}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Yuma International Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40593, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762265948.609069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762265948.609069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3089221031863984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40570,\"question_id\":40144}}`" }, { "id": 40592, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-november-21-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.119302Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T07:52:08.531012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.385740Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T02:07:17.759128Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40168, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.119810Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40556,\"question_id\":40131}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 29, 2025 and before November 21, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40592, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762253865.138086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.538 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762253865.138086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.538 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5959206912984413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 24.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40556,\"question_id\":40131}}`" }, { "id": 40577, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "short_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "url_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "slug": "us-military-in-nigeria-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:27:28.737901Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:32:53.367596Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:27.866873Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:33:03.209733Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T05:33:03.209733Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40150, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:27:28.738254Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack within Nigeria's internationally recognised territory.", "fine_print": "Cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact do not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "post_id": 40577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763520243.819545, "end_time": 1763545559.539, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763520243.819545, "end_time": 1763545559.539, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.12421534602643862 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.22704845836749035, 1.3026346524905317, 0.39862430815800365, 0.38007092148061455, 3.27470239387903, 1.1446204569799845, 1.7324900125269997, 1.2877881890285732, 0.0027844015881518533, 1.3281452570557244, 0.25391007566435586, 0.0, 0.19873696631965945, 0.0, 0.20222527300159887, 0.008334548102400622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03850858165784335, 0.9361882784028203, 0.0, 0.015738088418585917, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.02077269865532973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5027964435460978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06608631288902928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009894530929378758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40350388084437705 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 255, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"" } ] }
