Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 4974, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 35776, "title": "Will the proportion of people suffering from obesity be higher in 2050 compared to the current level?", "url_title": "obesity statistics", "slug": "obesity-statistics", "author_id": 265480, "author_username": "malysheva.katencka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-07T07:35:53.508645Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-14T07:27:19.174027Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-14T07:27:19.174022Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T19:47:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35214, "title": "Will the proportion of people suffering from obesity be higher in 2050 compared to the current level?", "description": "Today, 2.11 billion adults over the age of 25 and 493 million children and adolescents aged five to 24 suffer from obesity or overweight. In 1990, these figures were significantly lower — 731 million and 198 million, respectively. By 2050, the number of obese people will reach 360 million.\nBillions of people: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults (over the age of 18) were overweight, of which more than 650 million were obese. These numbers have probably increased significantly since then.\n\nloneliness is found in all regions of the world, especially many people suffering from this disease are found in North America, some regions of Europe, and some other rapidly developing countries. This is due to a sharp change in diet over the past 50-70 years. The development of the sugar industry, the spread of products with a high content of sugar, salt, a large number of calories, affordable and cheap fast food, a lot of fatty unhealthy food, food additives that allow us to feel an enhanced taste of products, all this contributes to overeating and weight gain, and also affects the consumption of healthy and healthy foods such as vegetables, fruits, whole grains. It should be noted that healthy and natural food is now expensive, unlike a burger at McDonald's. It should also be noted that the world has changed, and now most people work in offices at desks and computers, come to work by car and have a lack of physical activity, which also contributes to the accumulation of fat and the development of diseases. There are also genetic factors, but this is only a small percentage. The situation with childhood obesity is particularly alarming, the increase in the number of children with obesity leads to failures in the endocrine system, and serious problems in the future. For example, obesity is associated with a number of diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, some types of cancer. This all leads to an increase in mortality and a decrease in the quality of life. I assume that by 2050 the number of people suffering from obesity will increase, although now there is a trend towards a healthy lifestyle and proper nutrition, the amount of sugar consumed has still not decreased", "created_at": "2025-03-07T07:35:53.509053Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T19:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as \"yes\" if the number of obese people on the official website of the World Health Organization in 2049 is higher than in 2025, and \"no\" if the opposite is true.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Today, 2.11 billion adults over the age of 25 and 493 million children and adolescents aged five to 24 suffer from obesity or overweight. In 1990, these figures were significantly lower — 731 million and 198 million, respectively. By 2050, the number of obese people will reach 360 million.\nBillions of people: According to the World Health Organization (WHO), in 2016, more than 1.9 billion adults (over the age of 18) were overweight, of which more than 650 million were obese. These numbers have probably increased significantly since then.\n\nloneliness is found in all regions of the world, especially many people suffering from this disease are found in North America, some regions of Europe, and some other rapidly developing countries. This is due to a sharp change in diet over the past 50-70 years. The development of the sugar industry, the spread of products with a high content of sugar, salt, a large number of calories, affordable and cheap fast food, a lot of fatty unhealthy food, food additives that allow us to feel an enhanced taste of products, all this contributes to overeating and weight gain, and also affects the consumption of healthy and healthy foods such as vegetables, fruits, whole grains. It should be noted that healthy and natural food is now expensive, unlike a burger at McDonald's. It should also be noted that the world has changed, and now most people work in offices at desks and computers, come to work by car and have a lack of physical activity, which also contributes to the accumulation of fat and the development of diseases. There are also genetic factors, but this is only a small percentage. The situation with childhood obesity is particularly alarming, the increase in the number of children with obesity leads to failures in the endocrine system, and serious problems in the future. For example, obesity is associated with a number of diseases, including type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, some types of cancer. This all leads to an increase in mortality and a decrease in the quality of life. I assume that by 2050 the number of people suffering from obesity will increase, although now there is a trend towards a healthy lifestyle and proper nutrition, the amount of sugar consumed has still not decreased" }, { "id": 35769, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "url_title": "Israel resumes aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "slug": "israel-resumes-aid-into-gaza-before-april-7-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-06T03:10:42.990365Z", "published_at": "2025-03-09T01:33:55.696093Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-14T18:22:38.864312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-09T01:33:55.696091Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "projects": { "tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "tag", "is_global_leaderboard": true } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35210, "title": "Will Israel lift the blockade to humanitarian aid into Gaza before April 7, 2025?", "description": "On January 17, 2025, Israel and Hamas agreed to a [ceasefire deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict.", "created_at": "2025-03-06T03:10:42.990712Z", "open_time": "2025-03-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-07T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 7, 2025, humanitarian aid into Gaza has resumed, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { 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deal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Gaza_war_ceasefire#July_2024_to_January_2025:_Philadelphi_Corridor). The deal would consist of three phases, each lasting 6 weeks. In the first phase, Hamas [released 25 hostages and the bodies of 8 more](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-hamas-war-remaining-hostages-gaza-dbedb436b04fac1c790a794a4ef03853), while Israel released hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Israel also allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, [25,000 trucks](https://x.com/gidonsaar/status/1897280908450836820) according to Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs.\n\nThe original plan was that, in the second phase, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis and Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinian prisoners, while the parties would also agree to a withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip and a more permanent cessation of hostilities. Then, in the third phase, both Israel and Hamas would release all the remaining bodies of dead captives, Israel would end the [blockade of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blockade_of_the_Gaza_Strip \"Blockade of the Gaza Strip\"), and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.\n\nHowever, after the end of the first phase, on March 2, 2025, Israel [halted](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgz7p85mdgo) all humanitarian aid and goods from entering Gaza, with the goal of pressuring Hamas into accepting a new agreement, backed by the United States. This would extend the first phase for seven more weeks and would involve Hamas releasing half of the remaining hostages.\n\nAfter the blockade, prices for essentials like sugar, oil, and chicken [rose significantly](https://apnews.com/article/israel-gaza-aid-cutoff-netanyahu-hunger-war-940ceea2c2b754d197a4f07c0cad86de). The UN called the blockade [alarming](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-gaza-aid-barred-ceasefire-talks-criticized-un-red-cross-rcna194464) and condemned it along with [UK, France, and Germany](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/05/uk-france-germany-israel-gaza-aid-freeze-could-breach-international-law), citing violations of humanitarian law that mandates aid access. Hamas [has insisted](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/world/middleeast/israel-aid-halt-gaza.html) on moving to the agreed second phase of the ceasefire, which would involve a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent end to the conflict." }, { "id": 35764, "title": "Will Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson be the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "url_title": "\"The Rock\" is the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "slug": "the-rock-is-the-highest-paid-actor-in-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-05T02:10:16.650894Z", "published_at": "2025-03-05T22:47:07.043775Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-10T16:03:58.878151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-05T22:47:07.043773Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-06T22:46:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "projects": { "tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "tag", "is_global_leaderboard": true } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35208, "title": "Will Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson be the highest-paid actor in 2025?", "description": "Dwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson has now been the highest paid actor in the following years: [2016](https://www.forbes.com/actors/#28a1c26b40fe), [2019](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2019/08/21/the-highest-paid-actors-2019-dwayne-johnson-bradley-cooper-and-chris-hemsworth/), [2020](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maddieberg/2020/08/11/the-highest-paid-actors-of-2020-dwayne-johnson-ryan-reynolds/#7084b268112b), 2021, [2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/lisettevoytko/2022/02/09/the-highest-paid-entertainers-2022/), and [2024](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattcraig/2025/02/28/the-highest-paid-actors-of-2024/). \n\nAs of this writing, there is one film set to be released in 2025 in which \"The Rock\" appears:\n\n* [The Smashing Machine](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11214558/). \"The story of mixed-martial arts and UFC champion Mark Kerr.\" Along with The Rock, it stars Emily Blunt and is directed by Benny Sadfie.\n\nThere are a number of movies in varying states of readiness including two in pre-production ([Fast X: Part 2](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27550022/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_9); [Untitled Fast & Furious Film](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27920268/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_8)) and two in production ([A live action version of Moana](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27419466/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_2); [Big Trouble Little China](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4728328/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_5))", "created_at": "2025-03-05T02:10:16.651254Z", "open_time": "2025-03-06T22:46:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-10T21:46:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "* **Yes:** If Dwayne Johnson ranks as the highest-paid actor on Forbes' highest-paid actors of 2025 list.\n* **No:** If another actor holds the top position.", "fine_print": "If Forbes does not publish the list for 2025 before January 1, 2027, the question will be **annulled**. 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[Untitled Fast & Furious Film](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27920268/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_8)) and two in production ([A live action version of Moana](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27419466/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_2); [Big Trouble Little China](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4728328/?ref_=nm_flmg_job_1_unrel_t_5))" }, { "id": 35760, "title": "Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?", "url_title": "Dem House before 2027?", "slug": "dem-house-before-2027", "author_id": 265213, "author_username": "ChastityQM", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-04T17:52:57.998445Z", "published_at": "2025-03-09T14:18:35.216213Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-14T05:15:33.463625Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-09T14:18:35.216211Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T14:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35205, "title": "Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?", "description": "At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n\nOn November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.", "created_at": "2025-03-04T17:52:57.998863Z", "open_time": "2025-03-11T14:18:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-15T14:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-03T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n\nIf the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35760, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n\nOn November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections." }, { "id": 35745, "title": "Will Sam Altman formally take equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET?", "url_title": "Sam Altman to take equity in OpenAI in 2025?", "slug": "sam-altman-to-take-equity-in-openai-in-2025", "author_id": 124170, "author_username": "Skoogeer", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-03T14:47:36.583354Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-03-03T14:47:40.434515Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-09T22:41:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35192, "title": "Will Sam Altman formally take equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET?", "description": "OpenAI began as a nonprofit research organization focused on developing safe AI for the benefit of humanity. In 2019, it introduced a for-profit subsidiary (OpenAI LP) operating under a capped-profit model, whereby investor returns are limited to a predetermined multiple while ultimate control remains with the nonprofit board. Historically, CEO Sam Altman has deliberately foregone any personal equity stake—accepting only modest compensation—in order to preserve the nonprofit’s independent oversight.\n\n## Recent Developments\n\nIn November 2023, a boardroom dispute briefly resulted in Altman’s ouster, only to be reversed after significant internal and investor pushback. This event highlighted internal tensions regarding OpenAI’s unconventional governance.\n\nIn 2024, discussions emerged about restructuring OpenAI into a more conventional corporate form — potentially as a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC). Such a change would allow for conventional equity arrangements and address investor concerns that leadership should have “skin in the game.”\n\nCredible reports from major outlets (e.g., Reuters and Fortune) indicate that investors and internal stakeholders are increasingly in favor of aligning Altman’s compensation with company performance through an equity stake. Although Altman has dismissed rumors of a large (e.g., 7%) stake as excessive, he has not ruled out receiving a more modest equity interest.\n\n## Key Considerations\n\n**Governance Structure**: Transitioning from the current capped-profit model to a PBC is viewed as a necessary step to facilitate large-scale fundraising and align executive incentives with investor interests.\n\n**Investor Pressure**: Upcoming funding rounds, with valuations reportedly exceeding \\$150 billion, hinge on adopting a conventional equity model—making the grant of equity to Altman a likely component of the restructuring.\n\n**Industry Norms**: In contrast to OpenAI’s past structure, nearly every high-growth tech company provides its CEO with equity to ensure alignment between leadership and company success.\n\n**Legal and Regulatory Challenges**: Although converting to a PBC and issuing equity involves navigating potential legal and regulatory hurdles, the process is expected to proceed if executed with proper governance safeguards.", "created_at": "2025-03-03T14:47:36.583722Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-09T22:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to ”Yes” if Sam Altman owns - whether directly or via an entity he controls, such as a trust or holding corporation - any equity in OpenAI before the end of 2025 in the San Francisco Time Zone. This question will resolve to “No” otherwise.", "fine_print": "## Definition of “Taking Equity”\n\nSam Altman is deemed to have taken equity if he is documented to have acquired or been granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.\n\nEquity acquired indirectly (e.g., through prior holdings via Y Combinator’s investment fund or other arrangements established before Altman’s full-time tenure at OpenAI) shall not count.\n\n## Credible Reporting Requirement\n\nThe outcome will be resolved based on a consensus of independent and authoritative sources (for example, major financial or technology news outlets and official OpenAI disclosures).\n\nAt least two independent credible reports or official corporate records must confirm that Altman has formally taken equity, with these sources reaching a clear consensus.\n\n## Documentation\n\nThe confirmation must stem from verifiable corporate actions (such as board-approved equity issuances, documented grants, or equivalent formal records) that are publicly accessible or reported by reputable media.\n\nIf, by the cutoff date, the consensus among credible reporting confirms the above conditions have been met, the resolution will be “Yes.” Otherwise, if no such consensus is reached or the criteria are not fully satisfied, the resolution will be “No.”", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI began as a nonprofit research organization focused on developing safe AI for the benefit of humanity. In 2019, it introduced a for-profit subsidiary (OpenAI LP) operating under a capped-profit model, whereby investor returns are limited to a predetermined multiple while ultimate control remains with the nonprofit board. Historically, CEO Sam Altman has deliberately foregone any personal equity stake—accepting only modest compensation—in order to preserve the nonprofit’s independent oversight.\n\n## Recent Developments\n\nIn November 2023, a boardroom dispute briefly resulted in Altman’s ouster, only to be reversed after significant internal and investor pushback. This event highlighted internal tensions regarding OpenAI’s unconventional governance.\n\nIn 2024, discussions emerged about restructuring OpenAI into a more conventional corporate form — potentially as a Public Benefit Corporation (PBC). Such a change would allow for conventional equity arrangements and address investor concerns that leadership should have “skin in the game.”\n\nCredible reports from major outlets (e.g., Reuters and Fortune) indicate that investors and internal stakeholders are increasingly in favor of aligning Altman’s compensation with company performance through an equity stake. Although Altman has dismissed rumors of a large (e.g., 7%) stake as excessive, he has not ruled out receiving a more modest equity interest.\n\n## Key Considerations\n\n**Governance Structure**: Transitioning from the current capped-profit model to a PBC is viewed as a necessary step to facilitate large-scale fundraising and align executive incentives with investor interests.\n\n**Investor Pressure**: Upcoming funding rounds, with valuations reportedly exceeding \\$150 billion, hinge on adopting a conventional equity model—making the grant of equity to Altman a likely component of the restructuring.\n\n**Industry Norms**: In contrast to OpenAI’s past structure, nearly every high-growth tech company provides its CEO with equity to ensure alignment between leadership and company success.\n\n**Legal and Regulatory Challenges**: Although converting to a PBC and issuing equity involves navigating potential legal and regulatory hurdles, the process is expected to proceed if executed with proper governance safeguards." }, { "id": 35744, "title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?", "url_title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel?", "slug": "will-wti-crude-oil-drop-below-65-per-barrel", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "aimsdesire@gmail.com", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-03T11:33:15.565902Z", "published_at": "2025-03-09T15:29:17.502961Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-14T02:14:47.533294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-09T15:29:17.502959Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T15:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-17T13:57:56.366243Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 35191, "title": "Will WTI crude oil drop below $65 per barrel and stays there for 1 week before the 3rd quarter of 2025?", "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is a key benchmark for global oil prices, primarily sourced from U.S. oil fields, particularly in Texas. Known for its high quality and low sulfur content, WTI is often used as a pricing standard for oil traded in North America. Its price is influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, production policies of major oil producers and broader economic conditions. WTI is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and serves as a key reference point for energy markets worldwide.\n\nOil prices are influenced by various factors, with OPEC and non-OPEC members playing a significant role. However, the U.S. also has a major impact on price movements. Given Trump's \"drill, baby, drill\" stance, a slowing U.S. economy, and the uncertainty caused by tariffs, these factors could further shape the market dynamics.", "created_at": "2025-03-03T11:33:15.566247Z", "open_time": "2025-03-12T15:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-16T15:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-29T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/history/) closes below \\$65.00 for five consecutive trading days after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025. Otherwise resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {} } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/):\n\n> West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is a key benchmark for global oil prices, primarily sourced from U.S. oil fields, particularly in Texas. Known for its high quality and low sulfur content, WTI is often used as a pricing standard for oil traded in North America. Its price is influenced by factors such as supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, production policies of major oil producers and broader economic conditions. WTI is traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and serves as a key reference point for energy markets worldwide.\n\nOil prices are influenced by various factors, with OPEC and non-OPEC members playing a significant role. However, the U.S. also has a major impact on price movements. Given Trump's \"drill, baby, drill\" stance, a slowing U.S. economy, and the uncertainty caused by tariffs, these factors could further shape the market dynamics." }, { "id": 35733, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "url_title": "New record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "slug": "new-record-in-the-2025-world-figure-skating-championships", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-03-03T02:01:37.157569Z", "published_at": "2025-03-03T03:07:07.125275Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-13T17:57:59.296467Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-03T03:07:07.125273Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32630, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1_BRJlq2q.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-01-13T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-04-07T18:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-01-10T19:55:20.161665Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-12T08:39:03.765812Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 35189, "title": "Will there be a new world record in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships?", "description": "[Figure skating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Figure_skating) is a winter sport in which individuals, pairs, or groups perform on ice while incorporating jumps, spins, lifts, and footwork into choreographed routines set to music. The [World Figure Skating Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships), organised annually by the [International Skating Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Skating_Union) (ISU) since 1896, represents the most prestigious annual competition in the sport outside the Olympic Games. The [2025 World Championships](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_World_Figure_Skating_Championships) are scheduled to take place in Boston, from March 25 to March 30.\n\nIn all official competitions, athletes are scored using the [ISU Judging System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISU_Judging_System), which consists of two components: the Technical Score (TES) and the Program Components Score (PCS). The Technical Score assesses the difficulty and execution of specific elements (jumps, spins, and step sequences) with each element receiving a base value [ranging](https://www.usfigureskating.org/sites/default/files/media-files/ISU%202656%20ISU_SOV_SinglesPairs_2024-25_final.pdf) from 0.40 to 14, which is then adjusted using a -5 to +5 grade based on the athlete's execution. The Program Components Score evaluates five aspects of the performance: skating skills, transitions, performance, composition, and interpretation of music, with judges awarding points on a scale of 0.25 to 10.00 in each category.\n\nThe TES and PCS are added together to form the Total Segment Score (TSS), which is calculated for both short programs and free skating and added together to determine an athlete's final ranking.", "created_at": "2025-03-03T02:01:37.157939Z", "open_time": "2025-03-03T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-08T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-25T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships, there is a new world record in any category (men's singles, women's singles, pairs, ice dance), for any segment, on any of the possible scores:\n\n* TES – Technical element score\n* PCS – Program component score\n* TSS – Total segment score\n* Combine Total TSS across segments.", "fine_print": "* If at least half of the 2025 World Figure Skating Championships events do not take place before April 7, 2025, this question will be **annulled**.\n* In case a performance setting a new record is announced, but has not been officially verified (in case of potential disputes), it will count for the purposes of this question if it has not been cancelled as of April 7, 2025.\n* The [current world records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest_scores_in_figure_skating) are presented below:\n\n| Category | Segment | Score type | Score |\n| --------------- | -------------- | ---------- | ------ |\n| Men's singles | Combined total | TSS | 335.30 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TSS | 113.97 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | TES | 65.98 |\n| Men's singles | Short program | PCS | 48.47 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TSS | 227.79 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | TES | 137.18 |\n| Men's singles | Free skating | PCS | 97.22 |\n| Women's singles | Combined total | TSS | 272.71 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TSS | 87.52 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | TES | 49.97 |\n| Women's singles | Short program | PCS | 37.56 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TSS | 185.29 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | TES | 109.02 |\n| Women's singles | Free skating | PCS | 76.27 |\n| Pairs | Combined total | TSS | 239.88 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TSS | 84.41 |\n| Pairs | Short program | TES | 46.04 |\n| Pairs | Short program | PCS | 38.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TSS | 157.46 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | TES | 81.45 |\n| Pairs | Free skating | PCS | 76.99 |\n| Ice dance | Combined total | TSS | 232.32 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TSS | 93.91 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | TES | 55.16 |\n| Ice dance | Rhythm dance | PCS | 39.57 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TSS | 138.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | TES | 79.41 |\n| Ice dance | Free dance | PCS | 59.70 |\n\n", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741021295.487508, "end_time": 1741022886.038982, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.705 ], "centers": [ 0.705 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.705 ], "means": [ 0.705 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741022886.038982, "end_time": 1741034137.082813, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.705 ], "centers": [ 0.7175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7175 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741034137.082813, 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Instead, Trump criticised Zelenskyy for lacking gratitude for US aid and questioned his approach to the war, while Zelenskyy insisted on security guarantees from the US and emphasised Russia's role as the aggressor in the war.\n\nThe unresolved meeting left US support for Ukraine uncertain, with Zelenskyy not signing the deal before departing from the White House. Various European leaders voiced support for Ukraine, Keir Starmer [insisted](https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-leaders-pledge-increase-defense-spending-nato-mark-rutte-keir-starmer-london-summit/) that any peace plan must have US' backing. 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meeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2erwgwy8vgo) on February 28 ([video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6qFzWaaZ_o)) The discussion was meant to seal a deal granting the US access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals in exchange for continued support against Russia. 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2025?", "description": "According to the [National UFO Reporting Center](https://nuforc.org/about-us/): \"The National UFO Reporting Center was founded in 1974 by noted UFO investigator Robert J. Gribble. The Center’s primary function over the past five decades has been to receive, record, and to the greatest degree possible, corroborate and document reports from individuals who have been witness to unusual, possibly UFO-related events. Throughout its history, the Center has processed over 180,000 reports, and has distributed its information to thousands of individuals.\"", "created_at": "2025-03-02T04:05:19.432579Z", "open_time": "2025-03-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-07T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if The National UFO Reporting Center posts a report of a sighting of a UFO/UAP shaped like a cube in March 2025 at [this link](https://nuforc.org/ndx/?id=event) when accessed by Metaculus on or after April 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "For example, although rare in the history of NUFORC, the month of December 2024 [had](https://nuforc.org/subndx/?id=e202412) six sightings with a cube shape.", "label": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null }, "post_id": 35700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741345247.883708, "end_time": 1741345340.37002, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741345340.37002, "end_time": 1741345582.598343, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.55 ], "histogram": null }, { "start_time": 1741345582.598343, "end_time": 1741345609.098585, "forecast_values": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], 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