Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
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It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:13) is 148.25. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of XYL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40482, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761600213.095785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761600213.095785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5880265957446806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 18.0, 4.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:13) is 148.25. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`" }, { "id": 40480, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "url_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "slug": "rjfs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.940612Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T19:23:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T20:54:00.218504Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:35.168156Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T01:27:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:23:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40041, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.941030Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:23:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T01:27:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:26) is 162.44. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of RJF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40480, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761597744.873679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761597744.873679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5690736842105263 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 4.0, 5.0, 19.0, 7.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:26) is 162.44. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`" }, { "id": 40478, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-85-in-frontiermath-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.036336Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T18:51:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T20:22:00.296592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.293672Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T02:23:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:51:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40039, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.036821Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:51:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T02:23:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 02:23:26 is higher than 16.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40478, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761594710.765505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761594710.765505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.3246365979381443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`" }, { "id": 40477, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-india-gdp-japan-gdp-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:33.557725Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T18:48:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T20:19:00.231020Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:33.825375Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:13:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:48:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40038, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:33.558232Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:48:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:13:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 01:13:59 is higher than 90.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40477, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761595020.146749, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761595020.146749, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.5033844023323614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`" }, { "id": 40475, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "COF's close price rises?", "url_title": "COF's close price rises?", "slug": "cofs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:32.645072Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T16:35:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T18:06:00.668257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:32.875962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T01:06:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T16:35:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40036, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:32.645505Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T16:35:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T01:06:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:23) is 225.01. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40475, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761587214.431027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.535 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761587214.431027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.535 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5751594387755101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 6.0, 4.0, 11.0, 10.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:23) is 225.01. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`" }, { "id": 40473, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:31.714353Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T15:13:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T16:44:00.219456Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:31.945832Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T17:22:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T15:13:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40034, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:31.714773Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T15:13:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T17:22:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052). If the community prediction on 2025-11-06 17:22:23 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40473, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761582325.720053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761582325.720053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36994550810014737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`" }, { "id": 40469, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Increase in global average wealth per adult?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Increase in global average wealth per adult?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-increase-in-global-average-wealth-per-adult", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.276511Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T14:00:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T15:31:00.163996Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.635318Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:36:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T14:00:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40030, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.276943Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T14:00:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:36:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578\n- Original question title: Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) estimates that the \"[ <u>Median national wealth at market value per adult</u> ](https://wid.world/world/#anweal_p0p100_z/WO/last/eu/k/p/yearly/a/false/48929.56/125000/curve/false/country)\" for 2024 is higher than that in 2023. It will be resolved as **No** otherwise or if the value is equal to or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • If WID does not publish 2024 data by the resolution date, the question will be **void**.\n> \n> • The comparison will be made with the most recent figure available corresponding to 2023.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) tracks inequality and wealth indicators globally. The \"Average national wealth at market value per adult\" measures average wealth per adult in terms of market value, providing insights into global economic changes and wealth distribution. This metric reflects changes in economic conditions, but also dynamics of capital redistribution/concentration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35578,\"question_id\":35028,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578). If the community prediction on 2025-11-08 00:36:48 is higher than 95.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40469, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761578892.153586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.405 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761578892.153586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.405 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.595, 0.405 ], "means": [ 0.4531479591836737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578\n- Original question title: Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) estimates that the \"[ <u>Median national wealth at market value per adult</u> ](https://wid.world/world/#anweal_p0p100_z/WO/last/eu/k/p/yearly/a/false/48929.56/125000/curve/false/country)\" for 2024 is higher than that in 2023. It will be resolved as **No** otherwise or if the value is equal to or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • If WID does not publish 2024 data by the resolution date, the question will be **void**.\n> \n> • The comparison will be made with the most recent figure available corresponding to 2023.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) tracks inequality and wealth indicators globally. The \"Average national wealth at market value per adult\" measures average wealth per adult in terms of market value, providing insights into global economic changes and wealth distribution. This metric reflects changes in economic conditions, but also dynamics of capital redistribution/concentration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35578,\"question_id\":35028,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`" }, { "id": 40468, "title": "Will IEX's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "IEX's close price rises?", "url_title": "IEX's close price rises?", "slug": "iexs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.796719Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T13:47:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T15:18:00.163889Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.050602Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T02:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:47:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40029, "title": "Will IEX's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.797184Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:47:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T02:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "IDEX Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IEX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:16) is 167.95. You can find more information about IDEX Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IEX\n\nIDEX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides applied solutions in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Fluid & Metering Technologies (FMT), Health & Science Technologies (HST), and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products (FSDP). The FMT segment designs, produces, and distributes positive displacement pumps, valves, small volume provers, flow meters, injectors, and other fluid-handling pump modules and systems, as well as flow monitoring and other services for the general industrial, water and wastewater, energy, chemical, agriculture, semiconductor, and food and pharmaceutical industries. The HST segment designs, produces, and distributes precision fluidics, positive displacement pumps, powder and liquid processing technologies, drying systems, micro-precision components, pneumatic components and sealing solutions, moulded and extruded sealing components, shaft seals, engineered hygienic mixers and valves, biocompatible medical devices and implantable, air compressors and blowers, optical components and coatings, laboratory and commercial equipment, technical ceramics and hermetic sealing products, porous material structures, flow control solutions, and precision photonic solutions. This segment serves life sciences, general industrial, analytical instruments, semiconductor, food and pharmaceutical, energy, automotive, aerospace/defense, and medical/dental markets. The FSDP segment designs, produces, and distributes firefighting pumps, valves and controls, rescue tools, engineered stainless steel banding and clamping devices, lifting bags, other components and systems, and precision equipment for dispensing, metering, and mixing colorants and paints. This segment serves fire suppression, paint dispensing, rescue tools, automotive, general industrial, aerospace/defense, and energy markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IEX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of IEX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40468, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761577611.485791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.547 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761577611.485791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.547 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45299999999999996, 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.5368591836734695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 10.0, 9.0, 7.0, 18.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "IDEX Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IEX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:16) is 167.95. You can find more information about IDEX Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IEX\n\nIDEX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides applied solutions in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Fluid & Metering Technologies (FMT), Health & Science Technologies (HST), and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products (FSDP). The FMT segment designs, produces, and distributes positive displacement pumps, valves, small volume provers, flow meters, injectors, and other fluid-handling pump modules and systems, as well as flow monitoring and other services for the general industrial, water and wastewater, energy, chemical, agriculture, semiconductor, and food and pharmaceutical industries. The HST segment designs, produces, and distributes precision fluidics, positive displacement pumps, powder and liquid processing technologies, drying systems, micro-precision components, pneumatic components and sealing solutions, moulded and extruded sealing components, shaft seals, engineered hygienic mixers and valves, biocompatible medical devices and implantable, air compressors and blowers, optical components and coatings, laboratory and commercial equipment, technical ceramics and hermetic sealing products, porous material structures, flow control solutions, and precision photonic solutions. This segment serves life sciences, general industrial, analytical instruments, semiconductor, food and pharmaceutical, energy, automotive, aerospace/defense, and medical/dental markets. The FSDP segment designs, produces, and distributes firefighting pumps, valves and controls, rescue tools, engineered stainless steel banding and clamping devices, lifting bags, other components and systems, and precision equipment for dispensing, metering, and mixing colorants and paints. This segment serves fire suppression, paint dispensing, rescue tools, automotive, general industrial, aerospace/defense, and energy markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IEX\"}}`" }, { "id": 40467, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New Glenn 2025 successful landing\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New Glenn 2025 successful landing\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-new-glenn-2025-successful-landing", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.346919Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T13:10:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T14:41:00.174718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.585165Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T23:53:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:10:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40028, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.347321Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:10:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T23:53:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40287\n- Original question title: Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if during 2025 Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket in which the first stage performs a successful landing.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket during 2025 but the successful landing takes place during 2026, this question will still resolve as Yes.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New Glenn is Blue Origin’s large, partially reusable orbital rocket. The first stage is designed to return and land on a sea-based platform for reuse. On its first orbital launch (on Jan 16, 2025) New Glenn reached orbit, however the booster [was not recovered](https://www.blueorigin.com/fr-FR/news/new-glenn-ng-1-mission?utm_source=chatgpt.com) after a landing attempt.\n> \n> Blue Origin's very [cautious approach](https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-836412) stands in contrast to SpaceX's much faster \"fail to learn\" and they are now far behind in term of public progress in all categories of rockets. Their approach also makes every new flight much more crucial than SpaceX's since, with subsequent flights waiting up to a year, a failure will cause a much bigger setback.\n> \n> Blue Origin is now targeting another landing attempt, with a booster named \"Never Tell Me the Odds\" [later in 2025](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/the-second-new-glenn-rolls-to-the-launch-pad-and-they-expect-to-recover-this-one/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40287,\"question_id\":39839,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40287). If the community prediction on 2025-11-05 23:53:10 is higher than 36.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40467, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761574713.681253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761574713.681253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.46661929057337215 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40287\n- Original question title: Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if during 2025 Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket in which the first stage performs a successful landing.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket during 2025 but the successful landing takes place during 2026, this question will still resolve as Yes.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New Glenn is Blue Origin’s large, partially reusable orbital rocket. The first stage is designed to return and land on a sea-based platform for reuse. On its first orbital launch (on Jan 16, 2025) New Glenn reached orbit, however the booster [was not recovered](https://www.blueorigin.com/fr-FR/news/new-glenn-ng-1-mission?utm_source=chatgpt.com) after a landing attempt.\n> \n> Blue Origin's very [cautious approach](https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-836412) stands in contrast to SpaceX's much faster \"fail to learn\" and they are now far behind in term of public progress in all categories of rockets. Their approach also makes every new flight much more crucial than SpaceX's since, with subsequent flights waiting up to a year, a failure will cause a much bigger setback.\n> \n> Blue Origin is now targeting another landing attempt, with a booster named \"Never Tell Me the Odds\" [later in 2025](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/the-second-new-glenn-rolls-to-the-launch-pad-and-they-expect-to-recover-this-one/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40287,\"question_id\":39839,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 40466, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 82.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alina-habba-still-us-attorney-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:27.794504Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T12:49:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T14:20:00.321219Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.144858Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:51:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:49:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40027, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 82.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:27.794975Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:49:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:51:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 82.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.82}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756). If the community prediction on 2025-11-05 05:51:09 is higher than 82.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40466, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761573531.907528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761573531.907528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4397282986111109 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 82.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.82}}`" }, { "id": 40464, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-government-stock-in-semiconductor-companies-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.857203Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T12:18:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T13:49:00.245072Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:27.104344Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T12:00:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:18:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40025, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.857666Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:18:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T12:00:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706\n- Original question title: Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n> \n> TSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n> \n> However, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 12:00:06 is higher than 7.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40464, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761570657.156522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761570657.156522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6525000000000001, 0.3475 ], "means": [ 0.35608854166666687 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706\n- Original question title: Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n> \n> TSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n> \n> However, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`" }, { "id": 40463, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.403785Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T10:59:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T12:30:00.215962Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.644809Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:29:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:29:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:52:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T10:59:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40024, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.404243Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T10:59:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T12:29:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T12:29:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:52:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:29:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:29:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307). 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Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 40462, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US bailout Argentina 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-bailout-argentina-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:25.926770Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T10:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T12:15:00.237366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.188630Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T05:26:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-27T10:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40023, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 75.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:25.927244Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T10:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T12:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T12:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T05:26:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:15:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T12:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031\n- Original question title: Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n> \n> * Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n> * Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n> * Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n> \n> In the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n> \n> During Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n> \n> Prior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n> \n> In September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031). If the community prediction on 2025-11-08 05:26:52 is higher than 75.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40462, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761564781.209488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42500000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.5864285714285715 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761564781.209488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42500000000000004 ], "centers": [ 0.5864285714285715 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4135714285714285, 0.5864285714285715 ], "means": [ 0.5686075110456551 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40031\n- Original question title: Will the United States bailout Argentina before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 75.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if the United States Government conducts any of the following actions before 2026:\n> \n> * Transfers or provides a loan of US dollars to the Government of Argentina.\n> * Opens a dollar swap line with the BCRA and the BCRA draws from it.\n> * Purchases any Argentine sovereign bonds.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the mid-20th century, [Argentina's economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina) has struggled with recurring crises, high inflation, fiscal imbalances, and currency instability. Repeatedly receiving IMF loans, the crisis culminated at the [turn of the millennium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998%E2%80%932002_Argentine_great_depression) and resulted in a majority of the population living below the poverty line. Following the crisis, Argentina underwent [debt restructuring](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_debt_restructuring) and economic reforms, however economic problems persisted and by 2023 inflation had once again [surpassed 100%](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-64960385).\n> \n> In the [2023 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Argentine_general_election), [Javier Milei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei) was elected President of Argentina. Milei campaign on a platform of [radical economic reforms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Javier_Milei_2023_presidential_campaign) and free market policies, including dollarizing the economy, abolishing the Central Bank, and privatizing state-owned enterprises. Following the election, Milei faced political pressure and challenges and moderated his proposals, however significant economic reforms were still implemented.\n> \n> During Milei's tenure, Argentina's economy has continued to face significant challenges. Although poverty has dropped from its peak, many have lost access to basic needs programs, and although inflation declined following an initial spike, it remains far above normal levels. \n> \n> Prior to Milei's presidency, Argentina had implemented significant currency controls, resulting in a split between the formal and informal rate of the Argentine Peso. Milei initially attempted to unify the exchange rate with a “crawling peg” system before eventually allowing the peso to [float freely](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/04/12/argentina-to-lift-strict-currency-controls-on-monday_6740130_4.html). Following this, the central bank [intervened to defend the currency](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-19/argentina-milei-defends-peso-to-last-dollar-as-devaluation-jitters-mount), including purchasing U.S. dollars and using reserves to stabilize the peso amid sharp depreciation.\n> \n> In September 2025, the United States announced plans for a [\\$20 billion swap line](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-ready-support-argentina-needed-bessent-says-2025-09-24/) with Argentina's central bank. This would allow Argentina to exchange pesos for U.S dollars with the U.S central bank, giving it the ability to defend the peso’s exchange rate and receive short term funding. Following this, Trump [downplayed the plans](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250923-we-re-gonna-help-trump-to-the-rescue-of-struggling-argentina) saying \"I don't think they need a bailout\" but touted unspecified \"help\" to Argentina.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40031,\"question_id\":39572,\"last_cp\":0.75}}`" }, { "id": 40457, "title": "Will San Antonio, Texas receive any rain before November 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in San Antonio, Texas before November 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in San Antonio, Texas before November 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-san-antonio-texas-before-november-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:26.630903Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-25T16:53:14.210016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-24T13:27:27.908465Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T05:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-16T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T05:07:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-24T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40022, "title": "Will San Antonio, Texas receive any rain before November 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:26.631322Z", "open_time": "2025-10-24T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-29T13:26:27Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-29T13:26:27Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-16T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-25T05:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-25T16:53:14.166421Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-25T05:07:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "KSAT: [San Antonio endures more than 40 days without significant rain](https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/10/22/san-antonio-endures-more-than-40-days-without-significant-rain/)\n\n> San Antonio has been enduring an unusually long dry spell, and residents across the city are beginning to feel the effects.\n\n> According to records, the last time San Antonio saw a truly significant rainfall event— measuring over two inches — was on Aug. 31 with 3.11 inches.\n\n> With more than 40 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, the region is currently experiencing one of its driest periods in recent memory — comparable to a similar streak in 2015.\n\n> While there have been some isolated drizzles since then, they’ve done little to alleviate the drought conditions gripping the area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=SAT\\&network=TX_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's San Antonio International Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day after October 24, 2025 and before November 15, 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761336797.055391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.845 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761336797.055391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.845 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15500000000000003, 0.845 ], "means": [ 0.845 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 1.4432354781283858, "peer_score": 0.05023502588950942, "coverage": 0.02032261789519832, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7629979327831246, "spot_peer_score": 2.98879765423075, "spot_baseline_score": 75.70232465074595, "baseline_archived_score": 1.4432354781283858, "peer_archived_score": 0.05023502588950942, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.98879765423075, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 75.70232465074595 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "KSAT: [San Antonio endures more than 40 days without significant rain](https://www.ksat.com/weather/2025/10/22/san-antonio-endures-more-than-40-days-without-significant-rain/)\n\n> San Antonio has been enduring an unusually long dry spell, and residents across the city are beginning to feel the effects.\n\n> According to records, the last time San Antonio saw a truly significant rainfall event— measuring over two inches — was on Aug. 31 with 3.11 inches.\n\n> With more than 40 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, the region is currently experiencing one of its driest periods in recent memory — comparable to a similar streak in 2015.\n\n> While there have been some isolated drizzles since then, they’ve done little to alleviate the drought conditions gripping the area." }, { "id": 40441, "title": "Will the United States invade Venezuela before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will the US invade Venezuela by 2029?", "url_title": "Will the US invade Venezuela by 2029?", "slug": "will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-2029", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-22T17:35:40.840557Z", "published_at": "2025-10-31T02:00:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T00:54:39.888491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-31T02:02:29.900684Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T02:00:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T00:54:40.347448Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": 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"resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the US invade Venezuela by January 20, 2029?\n\nVenezuela’s political and economic crisis deepened under [<u>President Nicolás Maduro, who has governed since 2013</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro) following the presidency of Hugo Chávez. Hyperinflation, collapsing public services, and repression have contributed to one of the world’s largest displacement crises, with around 7.9 million Venezuelans having left the country, according to the [<u>U.N. refugee agency</u>](https://www.unhcr.org/emergencies/venezuela-situation).\n\n[<u>U.S.–Venezuela relations deteriorated sharply in 2019</u>](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela) when Washington recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president and escalated sanctions on the Maduro government and state oil company PDVSA. In October 2023, the Venezuelan government and opposition signed an election roadmap [<u>(often called the Barbados agreement)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/), prompting a temporary easing of some U.S. oil sanctions; critics warned compliance would be uneven.\n\nVenezuela’s July 2024 presidential election was widely contested: the United States and European lawmakers said the process lacked credibility and [<u>recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the winner</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/19/venezuelan-president-elect-edmundo-gonzalez-urrutia), while Maduro’s authorities claimed victory and moved against opposition figures. [<u>Washington and allied governments reimposed or expanded sanctions around Maduro’s January 10, 2025</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-accuses-venezuela-electoral-manipulation-repression-2024-07-29/), inauguration.\n\nIn 2025, tensions grew at sea: the United States carried out multiple lethal strikes on boats in the Southern Command’s Caribbean area of responsibility, [<u>saying they targeted narcotics traffickers tied to Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-military-kills-11-people-strike-alleged-drug-boat-venezuela-trump-says-2025-09-03/); regional leaders condemned the actions and warned of dangerous escalation. At the same time, Washington tightened the terms governing Chevron’s operations in Venezuela to limit financial benefits to Caracas, underscoring a sanctions-first approach rather than planning a ground invasion.\n\nAs of September 24, 2025, there has been no formal U.S. announcement of plans to invade Venezuela; U.S. policy centers on sanctions, diplomatic pressure over disputed elections, and maritime/air interdiction operations in the region, alongside continued regional concern over humanitarian fallout from Venezuela’s crisis.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before Jan. 20, 2029, the United States is confirmed by official U.S. government statements or credible media outlets to have invaded Venezuela with ground forces.\n\nTo qualify:\n\n* “Invade” means the deployment of **regular U.S. military ground forces** (e.g., the Army or Marines) entering Venezuelan territory with the intent to seize or control land, cities, or key infrastructure.\n* **Airstrikes, drone operations, covert operations, special forces raids, or maritime interdictions** do not count as an invasion unless they are part of a broader campaign that includes a sustained ground presence.", "fine_print": "A multinational force involving the U.S. entering Venezuela will not count for resolution unless the invading forces are led by the United States.", "post_id": 40441, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762563269.061924, "end_time": 1770034985.673, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762563269.061924, "end_time": 1770034985.673, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3554225166608202 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.06785272307040267, 0.024961621845100364, 1.0, 0.0, 1.305268052196264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.4443075475950298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will the US invade Venezuela by January 20, 2029?\n\nVenezuela’s political and economic crisis deepened under [<u>President Nicolás Maduro, who has governed since 2013</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicol%C3%A1s_Maduro) following the presidency of Hugo Chávez. Hyperinflation, collapsing public services, and repression have contributed to one of the world’s largest displacement crises, with around 7.9 million Venezuelans having left the country, according to the [<u>U.N. refugee agency</u>](https://www.unhcr.org/emergencies/venezuela-situation).\n\n[<u>U.S.–Venezuela relations deteriorated sharply in 2019</u>](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/instability-venezuela) when Washington recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as interim president and escalated sanctions on the Maduro government and state oil company PDVSA. In October 2023, the Venezuelan government and opposition signed an election roadmap [<u>(often called the Barbados agreement)</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/), prompting a temporary easing of some U.S. oil sanctions; critics warned compliance would be uneven.\n\nVenezuela’s July 2024 presidential election was widely contested: the United States and European lawmakers said the process lacked credibility and [<u>recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the winner</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/19/venezuelan-president-elect-edmundo-gonzalez-urrutia), while Maduro’s authorities claimed victory and moved against opposition figures. [<u>Washington and allied governments reimposed or expanded sanctions around Maduro’s January 10, 2025</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-accuses-venezuela-electoral-manipulation-repression-2024-07-29/), inauguration.\n\nIn 2025, tensions grew at sea: the United States carried out multiple lethal strikes on boats in the Southern Command’s Caribbean area of responsibility, [<u>saying they targeted narcotics traffickers tied to Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-military-kills-11-people-strike-alleged-drug-boat-venezuela-trump-says-2025-09-03/); regional leaders condemned the actions and warned of dangerous escalation. At the same time, Washington tightened the terms governing Chevron’s operations in Venezuela to limit financial benefits to Caracas, underscoring a sanctions-first approach rather than planning a ground invasion.\n\nAs of September 24, 2025, there has been no formal U.S. announcement of plans to invade Venezuela; U.S. policy centers on sanctions, diplomatic pressure over disputed elections, and maritime/air interdiction operations in the region, alongside continued regional concern over humanitarian fallout from Venezuela’s crisis." }, { "id": 40440, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-12-a-share-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-22T13:34:51.738050Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T01:48:39.010887Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-22T13:35:10.101376Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T13:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40010, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-22T13:34:51.738519Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T13:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:41.789649Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T13:29:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high during normal trading hours of greater than or equal to \\$12.00 after October 21, 2025 and before November 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761902930.47, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761902930.47, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004982193388361683 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.158774747390035, 0.09860583995692926, 0.9336392061291541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.62112616618448, "peer_score": 3.8132726006998277, "coverage": 0.9976120731547875, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9976120731547875, "spot_peer_score": 1.43546092556525, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 95.62112616618448, "peer_archived_score": 3.8132726006998277, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.43546092556525, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 40438, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-6-a-share-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T19:21:31.853058Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T13:38:39.290007Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T19:28:46.279911Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40008, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $6 a share before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T19:21:31.853516Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-22T13:32:33.374157Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-22T13:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 440%, from \\$0.65 to \\$3.51, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high during normal trading hours of greater than or equal to \\$6.00 after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761094708.689723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761094708.689723, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.42536714704314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7868304184704651, "peer_score": 0.2837685915300289, "coverage": 0.00834341533576929, "baseline_score": 0.06857539062778902, "spot_peer_score": 38.181021860866544, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.2837685915300289, "baseline_archived_score": 0.06857539062778902, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.181021860866544, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 440%, from \\$0.65 to \\$3.51, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 40437, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-allow-iaea-to-inspect-its-uranium-stockpile-before-2026", "author_id": 245211, "author_username": "Russell-viper", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T17:23:29.891007Z", "published_at": "2025-10-31T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:15.229427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-31T12:55:12.342850Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-17T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:28:19.449144Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:28:19.449144Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40007, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T17:23:29.891390Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-17T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-17T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Iran announces an agreement to allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpiles of enriched uranium at the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40437, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762564384.313473, "end_time": 1762613025.705, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762564384.313473, "end_time": 1762613025.705, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.0811917746459062 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2636856947958788, 0.29683892709897775, 0.23356272731421454, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0411852778773762, 0.0, 1.2047168809522169, 1.2853656052854086, 0.37295227737631576, 2.048522629700227, 0.15207970849988256, 0.4573391763706963, 0.4517764425833212, 0.0, 0.8032195473265388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14432523216481674, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.0, 0.1431283805958484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12669363444278628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 188, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities." }, { "id": 40436, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-3-a-share-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T15:29:47.188806Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-21T19:29:10.508247Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T15:30:14.354822Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40006, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $3 a share before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T15:29:47.189252Z", "open_time": "2025-10-21T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-21T19:18:11.345647Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-21T18:54:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 234%, from \\$0.65 to \\$2.17, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high of greater than or equal to \\$3.00 after October 20, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40436, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761072603.674832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761072603.674832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.175, 0.825 ], "means": [ 0.825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.7798458679406731, "peer_score": 3.5465201789655184e-06, "coverage": 0.0011006351561644314, "baseline_score": 0.0748023561961664, "spot_peer_score": 0.09186955170723035, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 3.5465201789655184e-06, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0748023561961664, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.09186955170723035, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 234%, from \\$0.65 to \\$2.17, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 40435, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-385-trillion-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-21T14:58:34.333620Z", "published_at": "2025-10-21T14:58:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T23:26:49.036917Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-21T14:59:21.812688Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T01:13:08.681649Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40005, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-21T14:58:34.334082Z", "open_time": "2025-10-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for December 31, 2025 is less than \\$38,500,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 40435, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762557998.015195, "end_time": 1762652393.751, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762557998.015195, "end_time": 1762652393.751, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17427376442942294 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 1.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*" } ] }
