Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6464, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40794, "title": "Will VRTX's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "short_title": "VRTX's close price rises?", "url_title": "VRTX's close price rises?", "slug": "vrtxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:20.627637Z", "published_at": "2025-11-24T08:59:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-24T10:30:00.232902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:20.844944Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T10:29:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T10:29:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T07:13:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-24T08:59:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32846, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench", "slug": "minibench", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-24T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-28T20:24:01Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-22T05:40:50.090538Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-28T19:31:15.623820Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40453, "title": "Will VRTX's market close price on 2025-12-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-11-24?", "created_at": "2025-11-22T06:05:20.628127Z", "open_time": "2025-11-24T08:59:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-24T10:29:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-24T10:29:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T07:13:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T10:29:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-24T10:29:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is VRTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:35) is 426.76. You can find more information about Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRTX\n\nVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis (CF). It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor. The company also develops CASGEVY for the treatment of sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia; JOURNAVX for the treatment of acute pain in adults; VX-522, a CFTR mRNA therapeutic designed to treat the underlying cause of CF, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; inaxaplin for the treatment of APOL1-mediated kidney disease which is in single Phase 2; VX-880 and VX-264, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes; VX-670 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1; and VX-407, a small molecule corrector for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Further, it sells the products to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, the company has collaborations with CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Moderna, Inc.; and Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VRTX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of VRTX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-11-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40794, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763977623.622472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763977623.622472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5622411347517728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 12.0, 4.0, 9.0, 18.0, 6.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is VRTX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-11-22 06:01:35) is 426.76. You can find more information about Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VRTX\n\nVertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, a biotechnology company, engages in developing and commercializing therapies for treating cystic fibrosis (CF). It markets TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO for people with CF with at least one F508del mutation for 2 years of age and older; ALYFTREK for the treatment for people with CF 6 years of age and older; SYMDEKO/SYMKEVI for treatment of patients with CF 6 years of age and older; ORKAMBI for CF patients 1 year or older; and KALYDECO for the treatment of patients with 1 month or older who have CF with ivacaftor. The company also develops CASGEVY for the treatment of sickle cell disease and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia; JOURNAVX for the treatment of acute pain in adults; VX-522, a CFTR mRNA therapeutic designed to treat the underlying cause of CF, which is in Phase 1/2 clinical trial; inaxaplin for the treatment of APOL1-mediated kidney disease which is in single Phase 2; VX-880 and VX-264, treatment for Type 1 Diabetes; VX-670 for the treatment of myotonic dystrophy type 1; and VX-407, a small molecule corrector for the treatment of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. Further, it sells the products to specialty pharmacy and specialty distributors in the United States, as well as retail pharmacies, hospitals, and clinics. Additionally, the company has collaborations with CRISPR Therapeutics AG.; Moderna, Inc.; and Entrada Therapeutics, Inc. Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VRTX\"}}`" }, { "id": 40777, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Donald Trump win the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize?", "short_title": "Will Trump win the 1st FIFA Peace Prize?", "url_title": "Will Trump win the 1st FIFA Peace Prize?", "slug": "will-trump-win-the-1st-fifa-peace-prize", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-21T01:31:51.930721Z", "published_at": "2025-11-21T19:12:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T21:13:01.284328Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-21T19:12:57.186962Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-22T01:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40436, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will Donald Trump win the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize?", "created_at": "2025-11-21T01:31:51.931158Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T01:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T19:12:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T19:12:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-06T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA), the world governing body of association football (also known as soccer), has announced its intention to award a [Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/peace-prize-award-football-unites-the-world-infantino), \"to reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace and by doing so have united people across the world.\" The winner of the award is planned to be announced on December 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C., at the [draw for the 2026 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw), which is to be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.\n\nFIFA President Gianni Infantino calls U.S. President Donald Trump a [close friend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o), and many have [speculated](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o) that the FIFA Peace Prize will be awarded to Trump, particularly after Trump was passed over for the more well-known [Nobel Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31089/trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is announced to be the winner of the first FIFA Peace Prize.", "fine_print": "If multiple winners are announced, this question will still resolve as **Yes** as long as Donald Trump is specifically named among the list of winners. If no Peace Prize winner is announced before April 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 40777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764470091.2257, "end_time": 1764556490.887, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764470091.2257, "end_time": 1764556490.887, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7699541151691511 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5440393206428573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 140, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA), the world governing body of association football (also known as soccer), has announced its intention to award a [Peace Prize](https://inside.fifa.com/organisation/media-releases/peace-prize-award-football-unites-the-world-infantino), \"to reward individuals who have taken exceptional and extraordinary actions for peace and by doing so have united people across the world.\" The winner of the award is planned to be announced on December 5, 2025, in Washington, D.C., at the [draw for the 2026 World Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_FIFA_World_Cup#Draw), which is to be hosted jointly by the United States, Canada, and Mexico.\n\nFIFA President Gianni Infantino calls U.S. President Donald Trump a [close friend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o), and many have [speculated](https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cddrnzveqq1o) that the FIFA Peace Prize will be awarded to Trump, particularly after Trump was passed over for the more well-known [Nobel Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31089/trump-wins-peace-prize-before-2029/)." }, { "id": 40776, "title": "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will any AI achieve ≥ 94% on GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard by Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-any-ai-achieve-94-on-gpqa-diamond-benchmark-leaderboard-by-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-20T23:28:13.079799Z", "published_at": "2025-11-21T00:08:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-29T05:33:46.708247Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-21T00:08:53.118064Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-22T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40435, "title": "Will any AI model achieve a score of 94% or higher on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark Leaderboard before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-20T23:28:13.080225Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-26T00:08:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-26T00:08:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n\nAs of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n\n| Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n| ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n| **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n| **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n| **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n| **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n\nAcording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n\n> The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n\n> We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n\n> Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n\nAn example of a question is:\n\n> *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n\n> *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n\n> *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2026, an artificial intelligence model achieves an Accuracy score of greater than or equal to 94.0% on the GPQA Diamond test, according to [Epoch AI](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond) on its Leaderboard.", "fine_print": "At the [resolution link](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond), the resolution numbers are at the Leaderboard tab. \n\nPlease note that due to the importance of methodology and impartial third party evaluation, only scores presented by Epoch count for this question. For example, on November 18, 2025, Google published a blog post [announcing ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3-deep-think)a score of 93.8% by Gemini 3 Deep Think. However, at the time of this question that score was not included in Epoch's benchmarking Leaderboard, so it does not count. \n\nAdditionally, in the event Accuracy numbers are presented as a range and a specific number is no longer given by Epoch, the midpoint will be used. At the time of this question, the highest accuracy score was 92.6%, achieved by Gemini 3 Pro Preview: <img height=\"226\" width=\"757\" src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2025-11-20_at_6.57.42PM.png\" />", "post_id": 40776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764547214.215, "end_time": 1764728827.288, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764547214.215, "end_time": 1764728827.288, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7851659891812145 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.5699081483698708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7608638541649495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 18, 2025, Google released its Gemini 3 large language model, which in its Gemini 3 Deep Think mode [achieved ](https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#note-from-ceo)a score of 93.8% on the GPQA Diamond Benchmark. However, as of the time of this question, this achievement was not listed at Epoch's Leaderboard and the highest score was 92.6% by Google Gemini 3 Pro Preview. \n\nAs of November 20, 2025, the top scores were as follows:\n\n| Model | Accuracy | Organization |\n| ------------------------------------- | --------------- | --------------- |\n| **Gemini 3 Pro Preview** | **92.6% ±1.7%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (high)** | **87.6% ±1.9%** | OpenAI |\n| **Grok 4** | **87.0% ±2.0%** | xAI |\n| **GPT-5 (high)** | **86.2% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **GPT-5 (medium)** | **85.4% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro** | **85.3% ±2.1%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **GPT-5.1 (medium)** | **85.0% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview (Jun 2025)** | **84.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **kimi-k2-thinking (turbo official)** | **84.2% ±2.1%** | Moonshot |\n| **Gemini 2.5 Pro Exp (Mar 2025)** | **83.8% ±2.6%** | Google DeepMind |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (59k thinking)** | **82.3% ±2.7%** | Anthropic |\n| **o3 (high)** | **81.8% ±2.1%** | OpenAI |\n| **Claude Sonnet 4.5 (32k thinking)** | **81.7% ±2.8%** | Anthropic |\n\nAcording to [Epoch](https://epoch.ai/benchmarks/gpqa-diamond):\n\n> The [GPQA (Graduate-Level Google-Proof Q\\&A) dataset](https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022) is a collection of challenging multiple-choice questions in biology, physics, and chemistry. Questions are written by domain experts (people with or pursuing PhDs in the relevant fields), and they are designed to be very difficult for non-experts to answer, even with unrestricted internet access.\n\n> We run our evaluations on the Diamond subset of GPQA. The GPQA Diamond subset is a higher-quality, more challenging subset of the main GPQA dataset. It contains 198 questions, for which both domain expert annotators got the correct answers, but which the majority of non-domain experts answered incorrectly.\n\n> Since GPQA questions are multiple choice questions with four options, the random guessing baseline accuracy on GPQA Diamond is 25%. To compare their o1 model to humans, OpenAI recruited PhD-level experts to answer questions in GPQA Diamond, and [found](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) that they scored 69.7%.\n\nAn example of a question is:\n\n> *A reaction of a liquid organic compound, which molecules consist of carbon and hydrogen atoms, is performed at 80 centigrade and 20 bar for 24 hours. In the proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum, the signals with the highest chemical shift of the reactant are replaced by a signal of the product that is observed about three to four units downfield.*\n\n> *Compounds from which position in the periodic system of the elements, which are also used in the corresponding large-scale industrial process, have been mostly likely initially added in small amounts?*\n\n> *A) A metal compound from the fifth period.*\n> *B) A metal compound from the fifth period and a non-metal compound from the third period.*\n> *C) A metal compound from the fourth period.*\n> *D) A metal compound from the fourth period and a non-metal compound from the second period.*" }, { "id": 40771, "title": "Will George Conway, vocal critic of Donald Trump, announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "short_title": "Will George Conway announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "url_title": "Will George Conway announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "slug": "will-george-conway-announce-a-run-for-the-us-congress-before-april-2-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-20T01:08:50.649494Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T01:11:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T19:58:10.815914Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-20T01:14:28.395794Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40425, "title": "Will George Conway, vocal critic of Donald Trump, announce a run for the US Congress before April 2, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-20T01:08:50.649907Z", "open_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T01:11:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T01:11:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-04-01T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times (November 19, 2025) [George Conway, a Vocal Foe of Trump, Eyes Congressional Run](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/us/politics/george-conway-congressional-run.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2U8.HbBc.yonWJCofFbrJ\\&smid=url-share):\n\n> George T. Conway III, the former conservative lawyer and one of President Trump’s fiercest critics, is moving closer to announcing a run for Congress in one of Manhattan’s wealthiest and bluest districts, pitching himself to potential donors as a top attorney who does not “have any more effs to give.”\n\n> Mr. Conway, 62, who currently lives in Bethesda, Md., has hired the Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg to work on a budding campaign to succeed Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York, who is retiring. He is also scouting apartments in the district where he lived and worked for years before relocating to Washington in 2017 when his wife at the time, Kellyanne Conway, joined the first Trump administration as a senior White House official. (The Conways divorced in 2023.)\n\n> Mr. Conway outlined his pitch on Tuesday night at a private virtual event for paid members of Democracy Docket, the media outlet founded by Marc Elias, the Democratic attorney.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if George T. Conway III announces his candidacy for the US Congress from any district in New York State before April 2, 2026. If no such announcement has been made before that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764483642.774, "end_time": 1764701690.736, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764483642.774, "end_time": 1764701690.736, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8655681012574495 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4809217002026323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times (November 19, 2025) [George Conway, a Vocal Foe of Trump, Eyes Congressional Run](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/19/us/politics/george-conway-congressional-run.html?unlocked_article_code=1.2U8.HbBc.yonWJCofFbrJ\\&smid=url-share):\n\n> George T. Conway III, the former conservative lawyer and one of President Trump’s fiercest critics, is moving closer to announcing a run for Congress in one of Manhattan’s wealthiest and bluest districts, pitching himself to potential donors as a top attorney who does not “have any more effs to give.”\n\n> Mr. Conway, 62, who currently lives in Bethesda, Md., has hired the Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg to work on a budding campaign to succeed Representative Jerrold Nadler, Democrat of New York, who is retiring. He is also scouting apartments in the district where he lived and worked for years before relocating to Washington in 2017 when his wife at the time, Kellyanne Conway, joined the first Trump administration as a senior White House official. (The Conways divorced in 2023.)\n\n> Mr. Conway outlined his pitch on Tuesday night at a private virtual event for paid members of Democracy Docket, the media outlet founded by Marc Elias, the Democratic attorney." }, { "id": 40767, "title": "Will Magnificent Seven shares crash before 2027?", "short_title": "Mag 7 shares crash before 2027?", "url_title": "Mag 7 shares crash before 2027?", "slug": "mag-7-shares-crash-before-2027", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-19T16:16:43.741309Z", "published_at": "2025-11-26T20:23:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T04:36:39.195208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-26T20:24:02.596378Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-27T20:23:14Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40421, "title": "Will Magnificent Seven shares crash before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-19T16:16:43.741696Z", "open_time": "2025-11-27T20:23:14Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-01T20:23:14Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T20:23:14Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_\\(stocks\\)). Their strong performance over recent years has driven equity-market concentration [to multi-decade highs](https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/gb/institutional/insights/the-rise-of-the-magnificent-7-concentration-risk-versus-earnings-power/). Investment commenters have been worried for some time that the market, especially AI stocks, [may be re-running the dotcom bubble](https://www.ft.com/content/f8cd239e-287c-4e3c-bfae-8c4acec7ac34). The S\\&P's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio [is approaching the dotcom peak](https://www.ft.com/content/ae4d7961-cf59-4369-8e64-8a9c9da956d1), primarily driven by AI companies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close more than 50% below their all-time high close price.\n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices (as adjusted for any stock splits) available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com) under the 'Historical Data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data. It will not use intra-day data.", "fine_print": "For example, if Stock X's all-time high close price is \\$1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below \\$500.\n\nA Yes resolution requires the stocks of at least four of the Magnificent Seven to close down >50% from their all-time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) but counts as only one out of the seven companies. Alphabet stock will be considered to have crashed if *either* of its two traded share classes falls below 50% of its all-time high.", "post_id": 40767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_\\(stocks\\)). Their strong performance over recent years has driven equity-market concentration [to multi-decade highs](https://www.columbiathreadneedle.com/en/gb/institutional/insights/the-rise-of-the-magnificent-7-concentration-risk-versus-earnings-power/). Investment commenters have been worried for some time that the market, especially AI stocks, [may be re-running the dotcom bubble](https://www.ft.com/content/f8cd239e-287c-4e3c-bfae-8c4acec7ac34). The S\\&P's cyclically adjusted P/E ratio [is approaching the dotcom peak](https://www.ft.com/content/ae4d7961-cf59-4369-8e64-8a9c9da956d1), primarily driven by AI companies." }, { "id": 40761, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "short_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "url_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "slug": "more-canadian-mp-defections-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.453270Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T17:00:00.274052Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.697378Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40415, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.453689Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40727,\"question_id\":40342}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 17, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, a member of the Canadian House of Commons resigns, changes party, or becomes an independent.", "fine_print": "If an MP dies or otherwise leaves office without resigning, that will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 40761, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763657471.27644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.262 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763657471.27644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.262 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37207679405374616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 20.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40727,\"question_id\":40342}}`" }, { "id": 40760, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "short_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "url_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "slug": "tehran-evacuation-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:48.757611Z", "published_at": "2025-11-19T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:00:02.819716Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:49.118348Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-19T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40414, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-18T05:35:48.758010Z", "open_time": "2025-11-19T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40629,\"question_id\":40225}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian government orders an evacuation of at least 100,000 inhabitants of Tehran County before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* Any Iranian governmental authority with jurisdiction over Tehran County will qualify as the Iranian government for the purpose this question.", "post_id": 40760, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763571591.947597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07899999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763571591.947597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07899999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1364254788029509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 6.0, 12.0, 4.0, 14.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40629,\"question_id\":40225}}`" }, { "id": 40750, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "short_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "url_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "slug": "peoples-party-absolute-majority-in-extremadura-in-2025", "author_id": 177670, "author_username": "CivicObserver", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-17T11:18:41.513278Z", "published_at": "2025-11-25T03:21:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T20:01:27.017645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-25T03:22:06.871919Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-26T03:21:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40404, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "created_at": "2025-11-17T11:18:41.513695Z", "open_time": "2025-11-26T03:21:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-19T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-19T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, according to the [official final results](https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/elecciones/autonomicas/extremadura) of the 2025 regional elections in Extremadura, Spain, the People’s Party (PP) led by María Guardiola wins at least 33 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura, thereby achieving an absolute majority without the need for coalition partners or external support.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if the PP wins fewer than 33 seats, regardless of any post-election agreements, coalitions or confidence-and-supply arrangements.\n\nThe resolution will be based solely on the final official results published by the relevant electoral authorities. Recounts or corrections will be taken into account only if they appear in the certified final tally.", "fine_print": "If the election does not take place as scheduled, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 40750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764365552.954231, "end_time": 1764624752.466, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764365552.954231, "end_time": 1764624752.466, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2306995756062216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats." }, { "id": 40744, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "short_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "url_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "slug": "will-nvidias-stock-price-close-220-or-180-on-any-day-before-nov-22-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-15T19:35:54.240145Z", "published_at": "2025-11-15T22:47:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T00:18:00.399892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-15T19:35:54.487239Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-22T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-15T22:47:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40386, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-15T19:35:54.240671Z", "open_time": "2025-11-15T22:47:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-22T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40703,\"question_id\":40305}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nvidia’s stock closes at greater than or equal to \\$220.00 or less than or equal to \\$180.00 for any regular trading day after November 10, 2025 and before November 22, 2025, according to [<u>Yahoo Finance</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/) or (if necessary) alternative [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will adjust to account for the split. Typically this is done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor. ", "post_id": 40744, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763250696.041152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5874999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763250696.041152, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5874999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.46819246918022706 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40703,\"question_id\":40305}}`" }, { "id": 40730, "title": "Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "short_title": "Will there be a Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "url_title": "Will there be a Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-labour-party-leadership-election-before-2027", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-14T15:53:32.278756Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T01:55:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:07:37.900277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-20T01:56:30.702557Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-21T01:55:36Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40348, "title": "Labour Party leadership election before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-14T15:53:32.279195Z", "open_time": "2025-11-21T01:55:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-25T01:55:36Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-25T01:55:36Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of November 2025, there is growing speculation about Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s future amid internal briefings and poor polling for Labour. Some MPs believe [a challenge could emerge](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y0z2q2g2ro) after the 2025 Budget or the May 2026 local and devolved elections. Under Labour’s current rules, a leadership challenge requires 20% of Labour MPs (≈ 81 signatures) to nominate a replacement candidate. If that threshold is reached, the incumbent leader is [automatically on the ballot](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/12/how-would-labour-leadership-challenge-work-keir-starmer-prime-minister), and the Labour national executive committee sets the timetable for a vote among party members and affiliates.\n\nNo sitting Labour prime minister has ever been formally challenged, though Jeremy Corbyn faced a leadership contest in 2016 after losing a confidence vote among MPs.\n\nPotential replacements mentioned in Westminster coverage include Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Angela Rayner, and Ed Miliband, though all publicly deny plotting.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, a leadership election is formally opened under [Labour Party rules](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03938/).", "fine_print": "Any leadership election will suffice for resolution, regardless of whether it is triggered by a leadership challenge or by a resignation or other vacancy.", "post_id": 40730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764551247.566579, "end_time": 1766362446.534, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764551247.566579, "end_time": 1766362446.534, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6290408578670339 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48861489675591196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2398658892161616, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of November 2025, there is growing speculation about Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s future amid internal briefings and poor polling for Labour. Some MPs believe [a challenge could emerge](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5y0z2q2g2ro) after the 2025 Budget or the May 2026 local and devolved elections. Under Labour’s current rules, a leadership challenge requires 20% of Labour MPs (≈ 81 signatures) to nominate a replacement candidate. If that threshold is reached, the incumbent leader is [automatically on the ballot](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/12/how-would-labour-leadership-challenge-work-keir-starmer-prime-minister), and the Labour national executive committee sets the timetable for a vote among party members and affiliates.\n\nNo sitting Labour prime minister has ever been formally challenged, though Jeremy Corbyn faced a leadership contest in 2016 after losing a confidence vote among MPs.\n\nPotential replacements mentioned in Westminster coverage include Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, Angela Rayner, and Ed Miliband, though all publicly deny plotting." }, { "id": 40727, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "short_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "url_title": "More Canadian MP defections in 2025?", "slug": "more-canadian-mp-defections-in-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-13T20:27:38.512912Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T19:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:12:15.203355Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-14T19:58:10.941696Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:51:14.965606Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:51:14.965606Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40342, "title": "Will another Canadian MP defect or resign before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-13T20:27:38.513361Z", "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 17, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, a member of the Canadian House of Commons resigns, changes party, or becomes an independent.", "fine_print": "If an MP dies or otherwise leaves office without resigning, that will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 40727, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764547516.166026, "end_time": 1764579578.242, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764547516.166026, "end_time": 1764579578.242, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21638045137303633 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.30445314579120214, 0.0, 0.8554006031583444, 0.09464378440008571, 0.3665885696709727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 1.0058982868756714, 0.0, 0.6036836155347984, 1.4789409092720611, 0.006304276060674225, 0.7899839106380127, 0.6716766914738247, 1.0319802211515676, 0.2767645108512169, 0.5012529306520332, 0.36990160373862246, 0.9698808596533748, 0.0, 0.2980362187846714, 0.0, 0.11595112040349083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6183252296339623, 0.014340426232757577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6719993717040575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06773047562639128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 334, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As the [2025 Canadian Budget](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_budget) is proposed, the incumbent Liberal government faces a challenge in passing its agenda. After the [2025 Federal Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Canadian_federal_election), the Liberal Party fell just 3 seats short of a majority, forming a minority government. \n\nOn November 5, 2025, Canadian MP Chris d'Entremont [left the Conservative Party](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/chris-d-entremont-reaction-in-nova-scotia-9.6968088) and joined the Liberal Party, crossing the floor to become the 170th Liberal MP. [Citing disagreements](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/chris-dentremont-liberals-poilievre-9.6967559) with Pierre Poilievre's leadership, he stated that \"*In the last number of months, I wasn't feeling I was aligned with the ideals of what the leader of the Opposition had been talking about.*\"\n\nOn November 6, Conservative Matt Jeneroux [announced his resignation](https://globalnews.ca/news/11515475/matt-jeneroux-conservative-mp-resigns/) as an MP. Offering little explanation, [media has reported](https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/conservative-mp-resigns-from-parliament-two-days-after-fellow-mp-crosses-the-floor/) that he was in talks with Mark Carney's office and that Conservative Party officials told him that there would be \"consequences\" if he crossed the floor. \n\nIf just two more Conservative MPs defect it would provide the Liberal Government with the required 172 seats for a majority." }, { "id": 40711, "title": "Will the United States, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US, Russia or China detonate a nuclear device before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-russia-or-china-detonate-a-nuclear-device-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-12T19:54:35.891063Z", "published_at": 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"group_rank": null, "description": "USA Today November 11, 2025: [If Trump resumes testing of nuclear weapons, Russia says it's going to do it too](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/11/11/russia-trump-nuclear-tests/87209795007/)\n\n> Senior Russian officials on Nov. 11 said they were still waiting for a White House explanation about what President Donald Trump meant he when said he had instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing.\n\n> And that if the United States resumes nuclear testing, Russia will too.\n\n> The abrupt announcement from Trump came just months before the last remaining nuclear-arms-control treaty between the United States and Russia, known as New START, is due to expire in February 2026.\n\n> Trump did not specify what kind of tests he was referring to or whether this included the detonation of nuclear warheads when he announced on Oct. 29 that the United States would \"immediately\" resume nuclear weapons tests, a move he said was needed to ensure the country keeps up with its rival nuclear powers.\n\n[China denies Trump's claim to 60 Minutes about nuclear weapons tests, calls on U.S. to ensure global stability](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-trump-nuclear-weapons-tests-60-minutes-beijing-response/)\n\n> China's Foreign Ministry responded on Monday to President Trump's assertion that Beijing has conducted clandestine nuclear weapons testing with a flat denial.\n\n> \"China's testing 'em too,\" Mr. Trump told CBS News correspondent Norah O'Donnell in an interview for 60 Minutes. \"You just don't know about it.\"\n\n> \"Russia's testing, and China's testing, but they don't talk about it. You know, we're a open society. We're different. We talk about it. We have to talk about it, because otherwise you people are going to report — they don't have reporters that going to be writing about it. We do.\" \n\n> Mr. Trump made the claim in the interview with O'Donnell that aired just days after the president's own nominee to lead STRATCOM — the U.S. military command in charge of nuclear weapons — told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that neither China nor Russia were conducting nuclear explosive tests.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after November 12, 2025 and before April 1, 2026, the United States, Russia or China are publicly reported to have detonated a nuclear device anywhere, for any reason. ", "fine_print": "A test with no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, does not count.", "post_id": 40711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764552673.789021, "end_time": 1764822157.298, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764552673.789021, "end_time": 1764822157.298, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.015057504726284959 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.88568648210471, 0.25417818159350136, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.6746670964524818, 0.11965943345941518, 0.42550593662906744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "USA Today November 11, 2025: [If Trump resumes testing of nuclear weapons, Russia says it's going to do it too](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2025/11/11/russia-trump-nuclear-tests/87209795007/)\n\n> Senior Russian officials on Nov. 11 said they were still waiting for a White House explanation about what President Donald Trump meant he when said he had instructed the Pentagon to resume nuclear weapons testing.\n\n> And that if the United States resumes nuclear testing, Russia will too.\n\n> The abrupt announcement from Trump came just months before the last remaining nuclear-arms-control treaty between the United States and Russia, known as New START, is due to expire in February 2026.\n\n> Trump did not specify what kind of tests he was referring to or whether this included the detonation of nuclear warheads when he announced on Oct. 29 that the United States would \"immediately\" resume nuclear weapons tests, a move he said was needed to ensure the country keeps up with its rival nuclear powers.\n\n[China denies Trump's claim to 60 Minutes about nuclear weapons tests, calls on U.S. to ensure global stability](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/china-trump-nuclear-weapons-tests-60-minutes-beijing-response/)\n\n> China's Foreign Ministry responded on Monday to President Trump's assertion that Beijing has conducted clandestine nuclear weapons testing with a flat denial.\n\n> \"China's testing 'em too,\" Mr. Trump told CBS News correspondent Norah O'Donnell in an interview for 60 Minutes. \"You just don't know about it.\"\n\n> \"Russia's testing, and China's testing, but they don't talk about it. You know, we're a open society. We're different. We talk about it. We have to talk about it, because otherwise you people are going to report — they don't have reporters that going to be writing about it. We do.\" \n\n> Mr. Trump made the claim in the interview with O'Donnell that aired just days after the president's own nominee to lead STRATCOM — the U.S. military command in charge of nuclear weapons — told lawmakers on Capitol Hill that neither China nor Russia were conducting nuclear explosive tests." }, { "id": 40703, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "short_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "url_title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close >$220 or <$180 on any day before Nov 22, 2025?", "slug": "will-nvidias-stock-price-close-220-or-180-on-any-day-before-nov-22-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T22:39:36.915597Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T00:17:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T00:03:56.022386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-11T00:17:50.239385Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T21:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40305, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $220 or below $180 on any single day before November 22, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T22:39:36.916352Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T00:17:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T21:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-21T21:15:27.045073Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-21T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Nvidia’s stock closes at greater than or equal to \\$220.00 or less than or equal to \\$180.00 for any regular trading day after November 10, 2025 and before November 22, 2025, according to [<u>Yahoo Finance</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/) or (if necessary) alternative [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will adjust to account for the split. Typically this is done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor. ", "post_id": 40703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763758303.72065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763758303.72065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.43160506748582134 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9930818769128185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -1.2107713546344556, "peer_score": 98.73884037350105, "coverage": 0.9803856768979741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9803856768979741, "spot_peer_score": 104.99486492654067, "spot_baseline_score": -25.15387669959645, "baseline_archived_score": -1.2107713546344556, "peer_archived_score": 98.73884037350105, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 104.99486492654067, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.15387669959645 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Yahoo Finance:[ Citi Raises Nvidia Price Target to \\$720 Ahead of Earnings](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/citi-raises-nvidia-price-target-172458877.html)\n\n> Nvidia (NVDA, Financials) just got another confidence boost from Wall Street. Ahead of its upcoming earnings report, Citi Research raised its price target on the AI chip leader to \\$720 from \\$650, saying demand for Nvidia's processors remains as strong as ever.\n\n> Citi's analysts called Nvidia the undisputed leader in artificial intelligence computing a title it has earned thanks to relentless demand for its H100 chips and growing excitement over its next-generation Blackwell GPUs. Those products are expected to power data centers well into 2026 as companies race to expand their AI infrastructure.\n\nNvidia's earnings report is [scheduled](https://investor.nvidia.com/events-and-presentations/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) for November 19, 2025. \n\nA 1-year spreadsheet of Nvidia's stock price can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LATfewMDYYiAsAoGX370hKCd_yt6TuVJwOk_qoJPjH8/edit?gid=0#gid=0)." }, { "id": 40701, "title": "Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "short_title": "AI hot 100 song before 2027?", "url_title": "AI hot 100 song before 2027?", "slug": "ai-hot-100-song-before-2027", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T19:09:46.110738Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T22:50:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-29T20:59:05.813742Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T22:51:19.381959Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:50:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40303, "title": "Will an AI created song chart on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T19:09:46.111150Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:50:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T22:50:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T22:50:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During 2025, AI created songs have began to place on various [Billboard ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_\\(magazine\\))charts, with at least six songs landing in the charts within the year. As of late 2025, this trend is accelerating leading to speculation an AI created song may soon chart on the Billboard Hot 100.\n\n[How Many AI Artists Have Debuted on Billboard’s Charts?:](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ai-artists-on-billboard-charts/childpets-galore/)\n\n> Notably, at least one AI artist has debuted in each of the past five chart weeks, a streak suggesting this trend is quickly accelerating. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a song primarily created by AI charts on the [Billboard Hot 100](https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) before 2027.", "fine_print": "This question will use credible sources or artist credits to determine whether a song is primarily created by AI.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, a song will be considered as primarily created by AI if the majority of the audio is generated by an AI, minor edits or filters will not qualify. \n\nWhether a song's lyrics are written by a human or AI will have no impact on this question.", "post_id": 40701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764449935.557407, "end_time": 1765745026.154, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764449935.557407, "end_time": 1765745026.154, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7999843697419331 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.7088250103212406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 1.711652044292747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During 2025, AI created songs have began to place on various [Billboard ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_\\(magazine\\))charts, with at least six songs landing in the charts within the year. As of late 2025, this trend is accelerating leading to speculation an AI created song may soon chart on the Billboard Hot 100.\n\n[How Many AI Artists Have Debuted on Billboard’s Charts?:](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ai-artists-on-billboard-charts/childpets-galore/)\n\n> Notably, at least one AI artist has debuted in each of the past five chart weeks, a streak suggesting this trend is quickly accelerating. " }, { "id": 40700, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "short_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "url_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "slug": "will-us-import-mexican-cattle-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:21.476029Z", "published_at": "2025-11-16T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T17:00:00.284415Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:21.794632Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-16T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40302, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:21.476445Z", "open_time": "2025-11-16T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40602,\"question_id\":40188}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if U.S. imports of cattle from Mexico are permitted to resume before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40700, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763312039.889835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.344 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763312039.889835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.344 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2992955447566036 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40602,\"question_id\":40188}}`" }, { "id": 40698, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "short_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "url_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "slug": "us-military-in-nigeria-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:20.305202Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T17:00:00.493951Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:20.600864Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-14T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-30T17:36:10.280590Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40300, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T17:14:20.305686Z", "open_time": "2025-11-14T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40577,\"question_id\":40150}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack within Nigeria's internationally recognised territory.", "fine_print": "Cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact do not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "post_id": 40698, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763139577.601346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763139577.601346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.140321667439315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 8.0, 7.0, 7.0, 5.0, 6.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 21.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40577,\"question_id\":40150}}`" }, { "id": 40695, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up?", "short_title": "Will Jay Powell cease to be Fed Chair before his term is up?", "url_title": "Will Jay Powell cease to be Fed Chair before his term is up?", "slug": "will-jay-powell-cease-to-be-fed-chair-before-his-term-is-up", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-10T00:02:31.212324Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T01:18:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:30:26.735931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T01:19:59.356437Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40298, "title": "Will Jerome Powell cease to be Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before his term is up?", "created_at": "2025-11-10T00:02:31.212780Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T01:18:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T01:18:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-14T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "International Banker (November 5, 2025) [Trump Puts Federal Reserve Independence Under Increasing Threat](https://internationalbanker.com/finance/trump-puts-federal-reserve-independence-under-increasing-threat/):\n\n> Despite being responsible for appointing Jerome Powell as the Fed’s chair in 2018, Trump has frequently expressed his frustration with the Powell regime for its refusal to lower interest rates. After Trump’s “liberation day” on April 2, which saw a raft of import tariffs being announced against virtually all US trading partners, he wrote on social media: “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly.”\n\n> Indeed, the US president has even discussed with lawmakers the possibility of firing Powell, although he appears to have cooled on pursuing this option following public outcry. Trump has also named Stephen Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a role on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Miran previously supported Trump’s demand for lower rates and has also co-authored a paper calling for an overhaul of the Fed that would reduce its independence.\n\nJay Powell [was](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220523e.htm) sworn in for his current term on May 23, 2022, and his final day in office is scheduled to be May 15, 2026. \n\nSee also: [Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307/will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before May 15, 2026, Jerome \"Jay\" Powell ceases to be Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm). ", "fine_print": " Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.", "post_id": 40695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764552616.229814, "end_time": 1764892799.999, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764552616.229814, "end_time": 1764892799.999, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.25339484300571574 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.6053381914439694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 1.708802142581616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "International Banker (November 5, 2025) [Trump Puts Federal Reserve Independence Under Increasing Threat](https://internationalbanker.com/finance/trump-puts-federal-reserve-independence-under-increasing-threat/):\n\n> Despite being responsible for appointing Jerome Powell as the Fed’s chair in 2018, Trump has frequently expressed his frustration with the Powell regime for its refusal to lower interest rates. After Trump’s “liberation day” on April 2, which saw a raft of import tariffs being announced against virtually all US trading partners, he wrote on social media: “This would be a PERFECT time for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut Interest Rates. He is always ‘late,’ but he could now change his image, and quickly.”\n\n> Indeed, the US president has even discussed with lawmakers the possibility of firing Powell, although he appears to have cooled on pursuing this option following public outcry. Trump has also named Stephen Miran, chair of the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a role on the Fed’s Board of Governors. Miran previously supported Trump’s demand for lower rates and has also co-authored a paper calling for an overhaul of the Fed that would reduce its independence.\n\nJay Powell [was](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20220523e.htm) sworn in for his current term on May 23, 2022, and his final day in office is scheduled to be May 15, 2026. \n\nSee also: [Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307/will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term/)" }, { "id": 40693, "title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)", "short_title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened)", "url_title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened)", "slug": "will-katie-wilson-be-elected-mayor-of-seattle-washington-in-2025-re-opened", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T23:01:00.010803Z", "published_at": "2025-10-18T11:41:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T15:18:04.076821Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T23:02:19.984776Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-25T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-09T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-01T01:52:47.960308Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40289, "title": "Will Katie Wilson be elected mayor of Seattle, Washington in 2025? (re-opened question)", "created_at": "2025-11-08T23:01:00.011262Z", "open_time": "2025-11-09T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-25T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-13T15:18:04.033148Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-24T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "King County, Washington's final results are [due](https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections/election-dates) November 25, 2025. At the time of this question, with 46% of the vote counted, Mayor Bruce Harrell led challenger Katie Wilson 50.74% to 48.86%, according to the [official results](https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). Web archives of results snapshots at previous vote counts can be accessed [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). \n\n\n\nSeattle, Washington's mayoral race is another contest (along with [New York City](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665/will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025/) and [Minneapolis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922/will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025/)) pitting a progressive newcomer against an establishment centrist. See for example The Urbanist Op-Ed: [Katie Wilson is the Zohran Mamdani of Seattle](https://www.theurbanist.org/2025/06/29/op-ed-katie-wilson-is-the-zohran-mamdani-of-seattle/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Katie Wilson is elected mayor of Seattle in the [2025 mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Seattle_mayoral_election), according to the official [vote count](https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762960103.016512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762960103.016512, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9374592431520954 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8334416670765896 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.296021618544277, "peer_score": 0.04226903372855484, "coverage": 0.2180612623243279, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9546828435906549, "spot_peer_score": 0.272151853181697, "spot_baseline_score": 92.52399054874104, "baseline_archived_score": 18.296021618544277, "peer_archived_score": 0.04226903372855484, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.272151853181697, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.52399054874104 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "King County, Washington's final results are [due](https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/elections/election-dates) November 25, 2025. At the time of this question, with 46% of the vote counted, Mayor Bruce Harrell led challenger Katie Wilson 50.74% to 48.86%, according to the [official results](https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). Web archives of results snapshots at previous vote counts can be accessed [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf). \n\n\n\nSeattle, Washington's mayoral race is another contest (along with [New York City](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38665/will-zohran-mamdani-be-elected-mayor-of-new-york-city-in-2025/) and [Minneapolis](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38922/will-omar-fateh-be-elected-mayor-of-minneapolis-in-2025/)) pitting a progressive newcomer against an establishment centrist. See for example The Urbanist Op-Ed: [Katie Wilson is the Zohran Mamdani of Seattle](https://www.theurbanist.org/2025/06/29/op-ed-katie-wilson-is-the-zohran-mamdani-of-seattle/)." }, { "id": 40691, "title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels”?", "short_title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels”?", "url_title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels”?", "slug": "will-any-official-cop30-decision-text-include-the-exact-english-phrase-phase-out-of-fossil-fuels", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:30.101694Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T21:06:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:07.366195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:30.374478Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:55:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T21:06:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40287, "title": "Will any official COP30 decision text include the exact English phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels”?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:30.102192Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T21:06:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:55:27.926527Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: The 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) is scheduled to take place in Belém, Brazil, from 10–21 November 2025. At COP28 (Dubai, 2023), Parties adopted language calling for “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner…” but did not adopt language explicitly stating a “phase-out of fossil fuels”. This choice of phrasing has been a central negotiation fault line and will likely be revisited at COP30, making explicit inclusion of the exact phrase uncertain yet plausible.\n\nUseful context and definitions:\n- COP30 refers to the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, convened in Belém, Brazil, Nov 10–21, 2025.\n- Decision texts (“decisions”) are the official documents adopted by the governing bodies meeting at COP30 (including, as applicable, the COP, CMA and/or CMP) and published on the UNFCCC website in multiple languages, including English. Resolution will rely on the authoritative English-language versions as posted on unfccc.int.\n- Prior art: COP28’s CMA decision on the outcome of the first global stocktake used “Transitioning away from fossil fuels…” and referenced “phase-down of unabated coal” and “phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” but did not include the exact phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels”.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The final texts are not known yet; negotiations over exact wording on fossil fuels are ongoing in the run-up to COP30. There is a realistic chance either outcome occurs given recent precedent.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"275bd459e19d1061\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Type: Binary (Yes/No). The question concerns documents adopted during COP30 and resolves no later than 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nDate window for eligible documents: Only decisions that are formally adopted at COP30 (the sessions held in Belém, Brazil) between 2025-11-10 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-11-21 23:59:59 UTC are eligible for evaluation.\n\nPrimary source of truth: The official English-language versions of decisions adopted at COP30 as published on the UNFCCC website (e.g., the Decisions pages for the COP and CMA sessions associated with COP30 on unfccc.int) If final formatted versions are not yet available by the resolution deadline, the most authoritative publicly accessible versions on unfccc.int (e.g., Advance Unedited Versions) will be used.\n\nCounting rule (what counts as a Yes): YES if at least one eligible official English decision text adopted at COP30 (by any relevant governing body meeting at COP30, including COP, CMA and/or CMP) contains the exact English phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels” as a contiguous string, using either a hyphen-minus (“-”) or an en dash (“–”) between “phase” and “out” (i.e., “phase-out of fossil fuels” or “phase–out of fossil fuels”). Matching is case-insensitive. The phrase may appear anywhere in the document (including title, preamble, operative paragraphs, annexes, or footnotes). Variants that do NOT count include, but are not limited to: “phase out of fossil fuels” (no hyphen/dash), “phasedown of fossil fuels,” “phase-out of unabated fossil fuels” (because an intervening word breaks the exact phrase), or any other construction where additional words interrupt the exact contiguous sequence required.\n\nExclusions: Drafts not adopted, negotiation texts, press releases, speeches, social media, media coverage, non-English versions, and third-party summaries do not count. Only the official English texts posted on unfccc.int for adopted decisions at COP30 are eligible.\n\nOperational notes for resolvers: To resolve, locate the UNFCCC Decisions pages for the COP30-related sessions on unfccc.int, open each adopted decision’s English version, and search for the exact string (case-insensitive) “phase-out of fossil fuels” allowing for either hyphen-minus or en dash between “phase” and “out.” Document availability can be via final formatted texts or UNFCCC-labeled advance unedited versions.\n\nResolution deadline: The market resolves by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC based on the best available official English texts on unfccc.int at that time.\n\nReferences for background/status quo: COP30 dates/location: UN (official site) and Wikipedia and COP30 Presidency site. COP28 precedent language: CMA decision on the first global stocktake AUV.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40691, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-09-30: The 2025 UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) is scheduled to take place in Belém, Brazil, from 10–21 November 2025. At COP28 (Dubai, 2023), Parties adopted language calling for “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner…” but did not adopt language explicitly stating a “phase-out of fossil fuels”. This choice of phrasing has been a central negotiation fault line and will likely be revisited at COP30, making explicit inclusion of the exact phrase uncertain yet plausible.\n\nUseful context and definitions:\n- COP30 refers to the 30th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, convened in Belém, Brazil, Nov 10–21, 2025.\n- Decision texts (“decisions”) are the official documents adopted by the governing bodies meeting at COP30 (including, as applicable, the COP, CMA and/or CMP) and published on the UNFCCC website in multiple languages, including English. Resolution will rely on the authoritative English-language versions as posted on unfccc.int.\n- Prior art: COP28’s CMA decision on the outcome of the first global stocktake used “Transitioning away from fossil fuels…” and referenced “phase-down of unabated coal” and “phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies” but did not include the exact phrase “phase-out of fossil fuels”.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The final texts are not known yet; negotiations over exact wording on fossil fuels are ongoing in the run-up to COP30. There is a realistic chance either outcome occurs given recent precedent.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"275bd459e19d1061\"}}`" }, { "id": 40690, "title": "Will Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election?", "short_title": "Will Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly", "url_title": "Will Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly", "slug": "will-prashant-kishors-jan-suraaj-party-win-at-least-one-seat-in-the-2025-bihar-legislative-assembly", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.605272Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T15:33:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:18.319577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.862493Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T15:33:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40286, "title": "Will Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party win at least one seat in the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:29.605684Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T15:33:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:15.182459Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T17:03:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and context as of 2025-09-30:\n\n• Jan Suraaj Party (JSP): A political party founded by Prashant Kishor on 2 October 2024. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. The party emerged from the Jan Suraaj Abhiyan begun in 2022 and is described as a registered unrecognised political party (RUPP) planning to contest the Bihar Assembly election; it made its debut in Bihar by-elections in November 2024. These facts are documented on Wikipedia’s Jan Suraaj Party page.\n• Public positioning: In late September 2025, Prashant Kishor stated that JSP would contest all 243 seats and claimed the party would either finish first or last (i.e., not in-between). See NDTV coverage: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/my-party-will-either-be-on-top-or-bottom-prashant-kishor-on-bihar-assembly-elections-9359752.\n• 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election basics: The Bihar Assembly has 243 seats, with elections scheduled for October or November 2025 and conducted by the Election Commission of India (ECI). See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n• What is an MLA? A Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) is an elected representative to a state legislature in India. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n• Official result sources: The Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), Bihar is the state’s official election office and functions under the ECI; its website hosts official Bihar election information. See: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/index.html. The CEO Bihar site has previously published a “Party Wise List of Winning Candidates” for Assembly elections, demonstrating the availability of party-wise winners in official publications. Example: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/BiharElection/Election%20Result/winning_partwise.pdf. National media such as NDTV also provide consolidated results pages (“Results At A Glance”) for state elections (as a credible fallback reference if needed). See: https://www.ndtv.com/elections.\n\nWhy this question is non-trivial: JSP is making its first full-scale bid in Bihar, led by a prominent strategist but without a past Assembly seat record; whether it secures at least one seat in 2025 is uncertain and reasonably disputed among observers. The threshold of “at least one seat” avoids triviality while maintaining clear verifiability.\n\nDefinitions of key terms used in this market (with links):\n• “Jan Suraaj Party (JSP)”: The political party described at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. For resolution, “JSP” means the party label as displayed in official result publications (e.g., “Jan Suraaj Party”).\n• “2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election”: The general election to the Bihar Assembly scheduled Oct–Nov 2025 (243 seats). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n• “Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA)”: An elected representative to a state legislature; see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n• “Seat” (in this context): One constituency’s representation in the Bihar Legislative Assembly; a party “wins a seat” when a candidate affiliated with that party is recorded as the winning (declared elected) MLA for that constituency in official election results.\n• “Official result publications”: State or national election authority pages or documents that publish final winners for the Bihar Assembly election—specifically (a) CEO Bihar’s results pages/documents, such as party-wise winners lists (example PDF exists: Party Wise List of Winning Candidates) , and (b) ECI-linked official portals accessed via CEO Bihar. As a fallback, widely recognized national outlets’ consolidated result pages (e.g., NDTV Elections results pages) may be referenced to corroborate the official outcome if the primary sources are inaccessible.\n\nStatus quo and data relevant to resolution:\n• JSP formation and contest intent are current as of late September 2025.\n• The election is expected in Oct–Nov 2025 with 243 seats.\n• Official results are typically published promptly by election authorities; CEO Bihar has historically posted party-wise winner lists , and the CEO Bihar site is the state’s official election information portal.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1ce025b01c377cc4\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Start and end of observation window:\n• Eligible events (the 2025 Bihar Assembly general election outcomes) must occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nQuestion resolution:\n• Resolve “Yes” if, by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, official result publications show at least one constituency in which the winning candidate’s party affiliation is “Jan Suraaj Party” (exactly as displayed in the relevant official results). \n• Resolve “No” if no such JSP win is shown in official result publications by the end time.\n\nPrimary source(s) of truth:\n• CEO Bihar’s official results publications, including party-wise winners lists (example of such a document: “Party Wise List of Winning Candidates,” indicating that party-wise winner lists are published officially) ; CEO Bihar is the state’s official election office under the ECI.\n• Accepted corroborating source(s), if primary pages are temporarily inaccessible: Consolidated results pages from widely recognized national outlets (e.g., NDTV Elections results pages) clearly listing party-wise seat wins for the Bihar Assembly election.\n\nOperational definitions and clarifications:\n• “Winning candidate”: The individual recorded as the elected MLA for a constituency in the Bihar Assembly election. See the general definition of MLA: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n• “JSP win”: Counted if the official result publication records the winning candidate’s party as “Jan Suraaj Party.” If transliterations or minor spelling variants appear, use the English label used in the official publication wherever it provides an English party name; if only Hindi appears, use the party’s Hindi label consistently across the results document.\n• Postponed or countermanded polls: If any constituency’s poll or counting is postponed beyond 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, it will not count for this question.\n• Scope limitation: Only outcomes from the 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly general election are considered. By-elections or any elections held separately outside the defined window do not count.\n• Tie/ambiguity handling: If multiple sources conflict, prefer CEO Bihar’s official publications. If CEO Bihar is unavailable and credible national outlets disagree, do not resolve until CEO Bihar publishes or until a consensus is apparent across at least two national outlets’ consolidated results pages; if still unresolved by the deadline, default to CEO Bihar when its publication becomes available before the deadline. If no official publication appears by the deadline, use the majority of credible national outlets as the fallback (e.g., NDTV Elections).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40690, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and context as of 2025-09-30:\n\n• Jan Suraaj Party (JSP): A political party founded by Prashant Kishor on 2 October 2024. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. The party emerged from the Jan Suraaj Abhiyan begun in 2022 and is described as a registered unrecognised political party (RUPP) planning to contest the Bihar Assembly election; it made its debut in Bihar by-elections in November 2024. These facts are documented on Wikipedia’s Jan Suraaj Party page.\n• Public positioning: In late September 2025, Prashant Kishor stated that JSP would contest all 243 seats and claimed the party would either finish first or last (i.e., not in-between). See NDTV coverage: https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/my-party-will-either-be-on-top-or-bottom-prashant-kishor-on-bihar-assembly-elections-9359752.\n• 2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election basics: The Bihar Assembly has 243 seats, with elections scheduled for October or November 2025 and conducted by the Election Commission of India (ECI). See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n• What is an MLA? A Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA) is an elected representative to a state legislature in India. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n• Official result sources: The Chief Electoral Officer (CEO), Bihar is the state’s official election office and functions under the ECI; its website hosts official Bihar election information. See: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/index.html. The CEO Bihar site has previously published a “Party Wise List of Winning Candidates” for Assembly elections, demonstrating the availability of party-wise winners in official publications. Example: https://ceoelection.bihar.gov.in/BiharElection/Election%20Result/winning_partwise.pdf. National media such as NDTV also provide consolidated results pages (“Results At A Glance”) for state elections (as a credible fallback reference if needed). See: https://www.ndtv.com/elections.\n\nWhy this question is non-trivial: JSP is making its first full-scale bid in Bihar, led by a prominent strategist but without a past Assembly seat record; whether it secures at least one seat in 2025 is uncertain and reasonably disputed among observers. The threshold of “at least one seat” avoids triviality while maintaining clear verifiability.\n\nDefinitions of key terms used in this market (with links):\n• “Jan Suraaj Party (JSP)”: The political party described at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Suraaj_Party. For resolution, “JSP” means the party label as displayed in official result publications (e.g., “Jan Suraaj Party”).\n• “2025 Bihar Legislative Assembly election”: The general election to the Bihar Assembly scheduled Oct–Nov 2025 (243 seats). See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Bihar_Legislative_Assembly_election.\n• “Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA)”: An elected representative to a state legislature; see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_of_the_Legislative_Assembly_(India).\n• “Seat” (in this context): One constituency’s representation in the Bihar Legislative Assembly; a party “wins a seat” when a candidate affiliated with that party is recorded as the winning (declared elected) MLA for that constituency in official election results.\n• “Official result publications”: State or national election authority pages or documents that publish final winners for the Bihar Assembly election—specifically (a) CEO Bihar’s results pages/documents, such as party-wise winners lists (example PDF exists: Party Wise List of Winning Candidates) , and (b) ECI-linked official portals accessed via CEO Bihar. As a fallback, widely recognized national outlets’ consolidated result pages (e.g., NDTV Elections results pages) may be referenced to corroborate the official outcome if the primary sources are inaccessible.\n\nStatus quo and data relevant to resolution:\n• JSP formation and contest intent are current as of late September 2025.\n• The election is expected in Oct–Nov 2025 with 243 seats.\n• Official results are typically published promptly by election authorities; CEO Bihar has historically posted party-wise winner lists , and the CEO Bihar site is the state’s official election information portal.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1ce025b01c377cc4\"}}`" } ] }
. \n\n\n\nSeattle](http://here](https://web.archive.org/web/20250000000000*/https://election-results-01.kingcounty.gov/results.pdf).%20%5Cn%5Cn%5Cn%5CnSeattle){kind=link}