Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6526, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40960, "title": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?", "short_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "url_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "slug": "trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-before-jan-21-2029", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:36:08.004706Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T01:50:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-14T13:56:20.525823Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-05T01:51:27.984866Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-06T01:50:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T11:40:49.210653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T11:40:49.210653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40668, "title": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:36:08.005130Z", "open_time": "2025-12-06T01:50:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-10T01:50:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-10T01:50:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-pardon-Ghislaine-Maxwell)\n\n[<u>Ghislaine Maxwell</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell?), a close associate of Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted in 2021 on multiple charges related to sex trafficking of underage girls. She was [<u>sentenced to 20 years in federal prison</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/us/ghislaine-maxwell-sentencing). Her legal team is still appealing, including [<u>arguing that a prior non-prosecution deal involving Epstein should have shielded her</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nIn 2025, [<u>Maxwell was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/25/justice-blanche-florida-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-trump/) for two days, addressing questions about many individuals connected to Epstein’s network. Around the same time, Trump [<u>publicly acknowledged he has the power to pardon her</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-doubles-down-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-comment-2105157?), saying “I’m allowed to do it,” but also that he hasn’t “thought about” it. Maxwell’s attorney has expressed hope for clemency, [<u>arguing that she was wronged by the government’s earlier handling of Epstein’s cases</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nThere is [<u>political controversy around the issue:</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-victims-b2798310.html?) some of Epstein’s victims and their families strongly oppose a pardon or commutation, and members of Congress have publicly demanded that clemency not be granted. Meanwhile, Maxwell’s lawyer has [<u>indicated she would be more willing to testify before Congress</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/29/ghislaine-maxwells-lawyer-tells-congress-shell-only-testify-after-appeal-is-over-or-if-trump-pardons-her/?) — but only after her appeal or in exchange for clemency.\n\nBecause presidential pardons are constitutionally permitted for federal convictions, [<u>Trump legally can pardon Maxwell</u>](https://time.com/7305903/donald-trump-ghislane-maxwell-pardon/?). However, whether he will is uncertain: his public statements have been noncommittal, legal and political risks are high, and any pardon could provoke strong backlash.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, there is credible confirmation that Donald Trump has granted a presidential pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell or commuted her sentence such that she is immediately entitled to be released from prison.", "fine_print": "1. The action must be a formal clemency grant (pardon or commutation) issued by Trump, documented in official records (e.g., White House, DOJ) or confirmed by credible media outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, NYT, WaPo).\n2. The clemency must specifically reference Maxwell by name.", "short_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "post_id": 40960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765720570.233227, "end_time": 1772804116.157, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765720570.233227, "end_time": 1772804116.157, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.28702114275440666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 1.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.021683974343215, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-pardon-Ghislaine-Maxwell)\n\n[<u>Ghislaine Maxwell</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell?), a close associate of Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted in 2021 on multiple charges related to sex trafficking of underage girls. She was [<u>sentenced to 20 years in federal prison</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/us/ghislaine-maxwell-sentencing). Her legal team is still appealing, including [<u>arguing that a prior non-prosecution deal involving Epstein should have shielded her</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nIn 2025, [<u>Maxwell was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/25/justice-blanche-florida-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-trump/) for two days, addressing questions about many individuals connected to Epstein’s network. Around the same time, Trump [<u>publicly acknowledged he has the power to pardon her</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-doubles-down-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-comment-2105157?), saying “I’m allowed to do it,” but also that he hasn’t “thought about” it. Maxwell’s attorney has expressed hope for clemency, [<u>arguing that she was wronged by the government’s earlier handling of Epstein’s cases</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nThere is [<u>political controversy around the issue:</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-victims-b2798310.html?) some of Epstein’s victims and their families strongly oppose a pardon or commutation, and members of Congress have publicly demanded that clemency not be granted. Meanwhile, Maxwell’s lawyer has [<u>indicated she would be more willing to testify before Congress</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/29/ghislaine-maxwells-lawyer-tells-congress-shell-only-testify-after-appeal-is-over-or-if-trump-pardons-her/?) — but only after her appeal or in exchange for clemency.\n\nBecause presidential pardons are constitutionally permitted for federal convictions, [<u>Trump legally can pardon Maxwell</u>](https://time.com/7305903/donald-trump-ghislane-maxwell-pardon/?). However, whether he will is uncertain: his public statements have been noncommittal, legal and political risks are high, and any pardon could provoke strong backlash." }, { "id": 40950, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-in-dec-2025jan-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T10:03:51.921176Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:17:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T09:35:38.016312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T10:05:15.998806Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T10:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T09:35:38.791250Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T09:35:38.791250Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40643, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T10:03:51.921537Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T10:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "post_id": 40950, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765791327.763909, "end_time": 1765812386.529, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765791327.763909, "end_time": 1765812386.529, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.44741544431284724 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.90473964362302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004764507471173336, 0.0, 0.26039994410948086, 0.4261583910024024, 0.0, 0.2546144113986779, 0.5394424405969069, 0.27740117812093723, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8462893456316634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028362421182868216, 0.0, 1.3309796586356741, 0.0, 0.047116573808606566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019682175787451118, 0.007745482461618098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005409792956936867, 0.0, 0.33212028787079245, 0.025944903269425626, 0.0, 0.9954681547307211, 0.20113652926608147, 0.15395803265368366, 0.0, 0.03997326364240643, 0.13419760429367264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9391863129527186, 0.06503705247868548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011989632823413173, 0.9444389892381534, 0.03375615315938142, 0.33437035512044483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7590378743189671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023407900061487357, 0.00867414512829912, 0.08115937013843251, 0.5033773389992418, 0.0, 0.31433791509644904, 0.0, 0.9311166109701855, 0.00026933773180300467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10865859618335603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08740397872673408, 1.1965712425044641, 0.0, 0.10113073158219138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8028844628298696, 0.14378522756402082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5235689017913957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004075565365447296, 0.0, 0.002323564899522525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1883016610575313, 0.02369908397951872 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 284, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela." }, { "id": 40948, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "url_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "slug": "sixth-icj-case-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.779445Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T17:00:00.308445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.914962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40641, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.779896Z", "open_time": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40882,\"question_id\":40551}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a contentious case is introduced at the International Court of Justice in December 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc).", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "post_id": 40948, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764952863.948601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764952863.948601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22594853597938416 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40882,\"question_id\":40551}}`" }, { "id": 40947, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "url_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "slug": "germany-enact-aktivrente-pre-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.547383Z", "published_at": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T17:00:00.322635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.681938Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40640, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.547881Z", "open_time": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40924,\"question_id\":40612}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Germany enacts an extra tax-free allowance on employment income for people above statutory retirement age before January 3, 2026.", "fine_print": "This question will not wait for the law to enter into legal force, if the bill is officially enacted this question will immediately resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question will still resolve **Yes** if certain categories of income (such as self-employment) are excluded, as in the existing proposal.", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "post_id": 40947, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764866645.296416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6966059082965339 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764866645.296416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6966059082965339 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7426199361080472 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40924,\"question_id\":40612}}`" }, { "id": 40942, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "short_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "url_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "slug": "who-announce-non-h5n1-pandemic-in-2030", "author_id": 280307, "author_username": "Dudleyd444", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T12:41:16.038052Z", "published_at": "2025-12-10T16:01:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T02:30:05.239185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-10T16:02:03.191904Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T16:01:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40629, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T12:41:16.038418Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T16:01:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-15T16:01:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-15T16:01:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the World Health Organization announces that any disease except the H5N1 flu strain is a pandemic.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "post_id": 40942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks." }, { "id": 40939, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-announce-a-new-capital-before-jan-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.193324Z", "published_at": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-03T17:00:00.367035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.358282Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40626, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.193859Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40854,\"question_id\":40512}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2026, Iran officially announces that it plans to move its capital to a specific location.", "fine_print": "* The announcement has to include a the new location of the capital, at list at the level of a specific county. Announcements that mention moving the capital, but not a specific new location will not suffice to resolve this question.\n* The announcement alone will be sufficient for resolution, regardless of any subsequent implementation details, such as when the capital is planned to be moved, whether government institutions actually relocate, how many people move, or any other practical steps.", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "post_id": 40939, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764780220.797664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764780220.797664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2050689977041926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40854,\"question_id\":40512}}`" }, { "id": 40938, "title": "Will California Emissions Reporting Laws SB 253 and SB 261 Be In Effect on September 1, 2026?", "short_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "url_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "slug": "ca-emissions-reporting-sb253-and-261-in-effect-on-9126", "author_id": 100015, "author_username": "rchesnut7", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T02:06:22.557329Z", "published_at": "2025-12-10T15:57:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T00:09:15.792077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-10T15:57:59.836909Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T15:57:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40625, "title": "Will California Emissions Reporting Laws SB 253 and SB 261 Be In Effect on September 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T02:06:22.557853Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T15:57:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-15T15:57:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-15T15:57:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California has passed a pair of laws, known as SB 253 and SB 261, requiring companies that do business in the state to file public reports on their emissions. There have been 2 legal challenges to these laws filed in California federal courts, one by the Chamber of Commerce and the other by Exxon. In the Chamber of Commerce case, the judge denied the plaintiff's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that the Chamber was not likely to succeed on the merits. The Chamber appealed, and the 9th Circuit set an expedited hearing date of January 9, 2026 to consider the case. \n\nSB 261 originally required companies to file reports by January 1, 2026, but the 9th Circuit stayed the law pending the outcome of the appeal. SB 253 is a related emissions law scheduled to go into effort in August, 2026, and while the 9th Circuit declined to enjoin this law pending the appeal, the appeal is expected to resolve challenges to both laws. If the 9th Circuit rules against the Chamber, it is widely expected that the Chamber would appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and ask that Court for a stay pending the appeal.\n\nThe answer to this question has important implications for supporters and opponents of sustainability and green regulation.  ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if both the Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act (SB 253) and the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act (SB 261) are in effect on September 1, 2026 (UTC +7:00).", "fine_print": "If either law is rewritten or changed, and that new law is in effect, that will not qualify for this question.", "short_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "post_id": 40938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California has passed a pair of laws, known as SB 253 and SB 261, requiring companies that do business in the state to file public reports on their emissions. There have been 2 legal challenges to these laws filed in California federal courts, one by the Chamber of Commerce and the other by Exxon. In the Chamber of Commerce case, the judge denied the plaintiff's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that the Chamber was not likely to succeed on the merits. The Chamber appealed, and the 9th Circuit set an expedited hearing date of January 9, 2026 to consider the case. \n\nSB 261 originally required companies to file reports by January 1, 2026, but the 9th Circuit stayed the law pending the outcome of the appeal. SB 253 is a related emissions law scheduled to go into effort in August, 2026, and while the 9th Circuit declined to enjoin this law pending the appeal, the appeal is expected to resolve challenges to both laws. If the 9th Circuit rules against the Chamber, it is widely expected that the Chamber would appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and ask that Court for a stay pending the appeal.\n\nThe answer to this question has important implications for supporters and opponents of sustainability and green regulation.  " }, { "id": 40933, "title": "Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?", "short_title": "Verstappen win Abu Dhabi Grand Prix", "url_title": "Verstappen win Abu Dhabi Grand Prix", "slug": "verstappen-win-abu-dhabi-grand-prix", "author_id": 282199, "author_username": "David_", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-30T17:43:22.489490Z", "published_at": "2025-11-30T17:43:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-07T18:14:43.322732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-30T17:45:46.495103Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-09T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32845, "name": "Rational Ottawa", "type": "community", "slug": "ottawa", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32845, "name": "Rational Ottawa", "type": "community", "slug": "ottawa", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 40621, "title": "Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?", "created_at": "2025-11-30T17:43:22.489863Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:43:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:43:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-09T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-07T18:14:43.295486Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-07T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is the final race of the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship season, scheduled for **December 7, 2025**, at the iconic Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This race has historically been a season-defining event—most memorably in 2021, when it determined the World Championship in a controversial final-lap showdown between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.\n\nMax Verstappen, driving for Red Bull Racing, has dominated the 2024 and 2025 seasons, establishing himself as one of the most successful drivers in F1 history. The Dutch driver secured his fourth consecutive World Championship in 2024 and continues to be a frontrunner in the 2025 season.\n\nThe Yas Marina Circuit, designed by Hermann Tilke, features 21 turns over a 5.281 km lap and includes the distinctive segment that passes through the W Abu Dhabi hotel. The track has been a Red Bull stronghold in recent years, with Verstappen winning the 2023 edition.\n\nThis question asks whether Verstappen will take the chequered flag first at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Max Verstappen is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix according to the final classified results published by the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\n\nThis question resolves **No** if any other driver is declared the winner, or if Max Verstappen does not participate in the race.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the [official FIA results](https://www.fia.com/championship/events/fia-formula-one-world-championship/season-2025/abu-dhabi-grand-prix-0) or the [Formula 1 official website](https://www.formula1.com/).", "fine_print": "* If the race is cancelled and not rescheduled before December 31, 2025, this question resolves **No**.\n* If the race is postponed but takes place before December 31, 2025, the question will resolve based on the rescheduled race results.\n* If Verstappen finishes first on track but is later disqualified or has a time penalty applied that drops him from first place (as per the final classified results), this question resolves **No**.\n* If provisional results differ from final classified results, resolution will be based on the **final classified results** as published by the FIA.\n* If the FIA website is unavailable, the official Formula 1 website (formula1.com) will be used as an alternative source.", "short_title": "Verstappen win Abu Dhabi Grand Prix", "post_id": 40933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765124922.799821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765124922.799821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.45 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.519586744277706, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.1802165027726099, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.1849563069751886, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 12.519586744277706, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is the final race of the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship season, scheduled for **December 7, 2025**, at the iconic Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This race has historically been a season-defining event—most memorably in 2021, when it determined the World Championship in a controversial final-lap showdown between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.\n\nMax Verstappen, driving for Red Bull Racing, has dominated the 2024 and 2025 seasons, establishing himself as one of the most successful drivers in F1 history. The Dutch driver secured his fourth consecutive World Championship in 2024 and continues to be a frontrunner in the 2025 season.\n\nThe Yas Marina Circuit, designed by Hermann Tilke, features 21 turns over a 5.281 km lap and includes the distinctive segment that passes through the W Abu Dhabi hotel. The track has been a Red Bull stronghold in recent years, with Verstappen winning the 2023 edition.\n\nThis question asks whether Verstappen will take the chequered flag first at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix." }, { "id": 40932, "title": "Will snap presidential elections be held in Turkey before the regularly scheduled May 2028 election?", "short_title": "Turkey Snap Elections Before May 2028", "url_title": "Turkey Snap Elections Before May 2028", "slug": "turkey-snap-elections-before-may-2028", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-30T17:19:53.661071Z", "published_at": "2025-12-11T00:36:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T00:08:54.729619Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-11T00:36:47.258911Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-04-29T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-12T00:36:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40620, "title": "Will snap presidential elections be held in Turkey before the regularly scheduled May 2028 election?", "created_at": "2025-11-30T17:19:53.661512Z", "open_time": "2025-12-12T00:36:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-16T00:36:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-16T00:36:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-05-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-04-29T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-04-29T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Turkey's constitutional framework establishes fixed five-year presidential terms with elections held on a specific schedule. [Article 77 of Turkey's Constitution](https://www.anayasa.gov.tr/media/7258/anayasa_eng.pdf) (as amended April 16, 2017) states: \"Elections for the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and presidential elections shall be held every five years and on the same day.\" Under the 2017 constitutional amendments that established Turkey's current presidential system, presidential and parliamentary elections must occur simultaneously.\n\n[Article 101](https://www.anayasa.gov.tr/media/7258/anayasa_eng.pdf) establishes the presidential term: \n\n> The President of the Republic's term of office shall be five years. A person may be elected as the President of the Republic for two terms at most.\n\nHowever, the Constitution provides mechanisms for early elections. [Article 116](https://www.anayasa.gov.tr/media/7258/anayasa_eng.pdf) covers the possibility of snap elections: \n\n> The Grand National Assembly of Turkey may decide to renew the elections by three-fifth majority of the total number of its members. In this case, the general election of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and the presidential election shall be held together.\n>  \n> If the President of the Republic decides to renew the elections, the general election of the Turkish Grand National Assembly and the presidential election shall be held together.\n\nFor regularly scheduled elections, [the constitutional rule](https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2023-03-30/turkey-2023-presidential-and-parliamentary-elections-to-take-place-on-may-14-2023/) \"requires both elections to be held on the same day — the last Sunday preceding the elapse of five years from the date on which the previous elections were held.\" The last presidential election was held on May 14, 2023. Based on this timing, the [next regularly scheduled presidential election must be held on May 7, 2028](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Turkish_presidential_election) (the last Sunday before May 14, 2028).\n\nTurkey has recent precedent for snap elections. In 2018, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called early elections originally scheduled for November 2019, moving them to June 2018. [In 2023, elections originally scheduled for June 18 were moved forward to May 14](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) to avoid conflicting with university exams and religious observances.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if snap presidential elections are held in Turkey with the voting day occurring on or before April 30, 2028, Turkey Time (TRT, UTC+3), according to [Turkey's Supreme Election Council](https://www.ysk.gov.tr/en/supreme-election-council/1841) (Yüksek Seçim Kurulu, YSK) or reporting from credible international news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Financial Times).", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, snap elections are defined as presidential elections where the voting day occurs before May 2028. The regularly scheduled presidential election is expected to occur in May 2028. Any presidential election held before May 2028 counts as snap elections for this question. This would include early elections due to the resignation or death of the current president.", "short_title": "Turkey Snap Elections Before May 2028", "post_id": 40932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Turkey's constitutional framework establishes fixed five-year presidential terms with elections held on a specific schedule. [Article 77 of Turkey's Constitution](https://www.anayasa.gov.tr/media/7258/anayasa_eng.pdf) (as amended April 16, 2017) states: \"Elections for the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and presidential elections shall be held every five years and on the same day.\" Under the 2017 constitutional amendments that established Turkey's current presidential system, presidential and parliamentary elections must occur simultaneously.\n\n[Article 101](https://www.anayasa.gov.tr/media/7258/anayasa_eng.pdf) establishes the presidential term: \n\n> The President of the Republic's term of office shall be five years. A person may be elected as the President of the Republic for two terms at most.\n\nHowever, the Constitution provides mechanisms for early elections. [Article 116](https://www.anayasa.gov.tr/media/7258/anayasa_eng.pdf) covers the possibility of snap elections: \n\n> The Grand National Assembly of Turkey may decide to renew the elections by three-fifth majority of the total number of its members. In this case, the general election of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and the presidential election shall be held together.\n>  \n> If the President of the Republic decides to renew the elections, the general election of the Turkish Grand National Assembly and the presidential election shall be held together.\n\nFor regularly scheduled elections, [the constitutional rule](https://www.loc.gov/item/global-legal-monitor/2023-03-30/turkey-2023-presidential-and-parliamentary-elections-to-take-place-on-may-14-2023/) \"requires both elections to be held on the same day — the last Sunday preceding the elapse of five years from the date on which the previous elections were held.\" The last presidential election was held on May 14, 2023. Based on this timing, the [next regularly scheduled presidential election must be held on May 7, 2028](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Turkish_presidential_election) (the last Sunday before May 14, 2028).\n\nTurkey has recent precedent for snap elections. In 2018, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called early elections originally scheduled for November 2019, moving them to June 2018. [In 2023, elections originally scheduled for June 18 were moved forward to May 14](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Turkish_presidential_election) to avoid conflicting with university exams and religious observances." }, { "id": 40930, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned by Israel's President before November 19, 2029?", "short_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 19, 2029?", "url_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 19, 2029?", "slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-pardoned-before-nov-19-2029", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-30T13:59:13.190349Z", "published_at": "2025-12-09T01:54:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T01:10:03.166875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-09T01:55:25.747609Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-11-18T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-10T01:54:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40618, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned by Israel's President before November 19, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-11-30T13:59:13.190717Z", "open_time": "2025-12-10T01:54:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-14T01:54:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-14T01:54:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-11-18T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-11-18T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister of Israel, was indicted by the then Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit on November 21, 2019 in [a series of corruption cases](https://apnews.com/general-news-26414b844f5c4d4eb0e7a9a99f9f70de). His trial [began in May 2020](https://apnews.com/f5829f1fccc4ec2d9d810fffe9687467).\n\nAs summed up by [The Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-trial-pardon-president-corruption-charges-f4dfb2e78c2b9ef265324d2d5bfa7518),\n\n> He is [charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes](https://apnews.com/article/israel-corruption-netanyahu-gaza-war-scandal-17518bca5b27fc47216eed974e96f3e6) in three separate cases accusing him of exchanging favors with wealthy political supporters including a telecom company, a Hollywood producer and a newspaper publisher.\n\n> Netanyahu rejects the allegations and has described the case as a witch hunt orchestrated by the media, police and judiciary.\n>  \n> He has not been convicted of anything. Netanyahu has repeatedly requested postponements of his testimony, citing diplomatic engagements or security issues around Israel’s wars in the past two years with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.\n>  \n> Earlier delays in the trial were caused in part by [years of political crisis](https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-religion-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-0f97b58db3b188bc7512854bd449f8cd) that gridlocked Israel, with Netanyahu returning to office in late 2022.\n>  \n> The delays have angered many Israelis, including some parents of hostages long held in Gaza who accused Netanyahu of drawing out the [war with Hamas](https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war) as part of efforts to stay in office.\n\nOn November 30, 2025, Benjamin Netanyahu sent in a video message to the Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, requesting [a formal pardon over the corruption cases in the national interest](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gv76r5qpvo):\n\n> The president's office said Herzog would receive opinions from justice officials before considering the request \"which carries with it significant implications\".\n\nEarlier in November, [US President Donald J. Trump wrote to the Israeli President to fully pardon Benjamin Netanyahu](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c986285zrq0o):\n\n> Trump writes that he \"absolutely\" respects the independence of Israel's justice system, but that he believes Netanyahu is facing \"a political, unjustified prosecution\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 19, 2029, Benjamin Netanyahu is formally pardoned by the President of Israel in connection with *all* of the charges brought against him in November 2019.", "fine_print": "The formal pardon must relate to all the charges of corruption that began in 2019 but can be received before, during, or after completion of the trial.\n\nThe pardon need not be issued by current Israeli President Isaac Herzog but can be issued by any subsequent President.", "short_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu be pardoned before Nov 19, 2029?", "post_id": 40930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765760992.398451, "end_time": 1773130319.914, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765760992.398451, "end_time": 1773130319.914, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5487950627237707 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.076154905979145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Benjamin Netanyahu, the current prime minister of Israel, was indicted by the then Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit on November 21, 2019 in [a series of corruption cases](https://apnews.com/general-news-26414b844f5c4d4eb0e7a9a99f9f70de). His trial [began in May 2020](https://apnews.com/f5829f1fccc4ec2d9d810fffe9687467).\n\nAs summed up by [The Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/israel-netanyahu-trial-pardon-president-corruption-charges-f4dfb2e78c2b9ef265324d2d5bfa7518),\n\n> He is [charged with fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes](https://apnews.com/article/israel-corruption-netanyahu-gaza-war-scandal-17518bca5b27fc47216eed974e96f3e6) in three separate cases accusing him of exchanging favors with wealthy political supporters including a telecom company, a Hollywood producer and a newspaper publisher.\n\n> Netanyahu rejects the allegations and has described the case as a witch hunt orchestrated by the media, police and judiciary.\n>  \n> He has not been convicted of anything. Netanyahu has repeatedly requested postponements of his testimony, citing diplomatic engagements or security issues around Israel’s wars in the past two years with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran.\n>  \n> Earlier delays in the trial were caused in part by [years of political crisis](https://apnews.com/article/middle-east-religion-israel-benjamin-netanyahu-0f97b58db3b188bc7512854bd449f8cd) that gridlocked Israel, with Netanyahu returning to office in late 2022.\n>  \n> The delays have angered many Israelis, including some parents of hostages long held in Gaza who accused Netanyahu of drawing out the [war with Hamas](https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war) as part of efforts to stay in office.\n\nOn November 30, 2025, Benjamin Netanyahu sent in a video message to the Israeli President, Isaac Herzog, requesting [a formal pardon over the corruption cases in the national interest](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gv76r5qpvo):\n\n> The president's office said Herzog would receive opinions from justice officials before considering the request \"which carries with it significant implications\".\n\nEarlier in November, [US President Donald J. Trump wrote to the Israeli President to fully pardon Benjamin Netanyahu](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c986285zrq0o):\n\n> Trump writes that he \"absolutely\" respects the independence of Israel's justice system, but that he believes Netanyahu is facing \"a political, unjustified prosecution\"." }, { "id": 40925, "title": "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?", "short_title": "Cultured meat vs corporate campaign animal welfare benefit", "url_title": "Cultured meat vs corporate campaign animal welfare benefit", "slug": "cultured-meat-vs-corporate-campaign-animal-welfare-benefit", "author_id": 274570, "author_username": "aemeader", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-29T08:38:37.230079Z", "published_at": "2025-11-29T08:38:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:34.181176Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-29T08:39:04.454487Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-11T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-30T08:38:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3590, "name": "Unjournal Forecasting", "type": "community", "slug": "unjournal", "description": "Unjournal.org: We commission experts to publicly evaluate and rate research. We aim to make impactful research more rigorous make academic work more useful, support open science, open access, and transparency, and improve peer-review, helping align research incentives with truth-seeking and social value. We focus on research in economics, policy, and other quantitative social science with potential for global impact. See our output at unjournal.pubpub.org. \r\n\r\nWe're planning to use Metaculus:\r\n\r\n* To gain expert forecaster insight about claims from [Pivotal Questions project](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/pivotal-questions-initiative)\r\n* As well as [claims identified by Unjournal evaluators](https://coda.io/d/Unjournal-Public-Pages_ddIEzDONWdb/Claim-identification-assessment_suXnKY2F) from research \r\n* To get forecast feedback to improve our operations and impact ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 115518, "username": "daaronr", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3590, "name": "Unjournal Forecasting", "type": "community", "slug": "unjournal", "description": "Unjournal.org: We commission experts to publicly evaluate and rate research. We aim to make impactful research more rigorous make academic work more useful, support open science, open access, and transparency, and improve peer-review, helping align research incentives with truth-seeking and social value. We focus on research in economics, policy, and other quantitative social science with potential for global impact. See our output at unjournal.pubpub.org. \r\n\r\nWe're planning to use Metaculus:\r\n\r\n* To gain expert forecaster insight about claims from [Pivotal Questions project](https://globalimpact.gitbook.io/the-unjournal-project-and-communication-space/pivotal-questions-initiative)\r\n* As well as [claims identified by Unjournal evaluators](https://coda.io/d/Unjournal-Public-Pages_ddIEzDONWdb/Claim-identification-assessment_suXnKY2F) from research \r\n* To get forecast feedback to improve our operations and impact ", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 115518, "username": "daaronr", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 40613, "title": "Does $100k to fund cultured meat development have a greater animal welfare benefit than $100k to corporate animal welfare campaigns for chickens?", "created_at": "2025-11-29T08:38:37.230654Z", "open_time": "2025-11-30T08:38:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-01T08:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T08:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-11T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Question Code**: CM\\_11\n\nThis is being set to inform [The Unjournal's Pivotal Question on the potential for cell-cultured meat](https://docs.google.com/document/d/17WudfkjfwtxDlhu3Dd_ZU4yVTvpEQp7v-QkLkkGDPQo/edit?tab=t.0), and the animal-welfare value of funding innovation in this area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question is intended for expert evaluators and other forecasters interested in the subject. As it poses a hypothetical, it cannot be objectively resolved as in a usual forecast. \n\nWe will resolve this question to the median probability of the linearly aggregated beliefs of the identified set of Unjournal evaluators and experts. (This feeds into another question in our community here *predicting* this median).", "fine_print": "Will the animal welfare benefit\\* of having donated \\$100,000 in 2026 to fund the development and availability of cultured meat (\\~chicken-imitating) exceed the benefit of having donated the same amount [to support The Human League’s corporate animal welfare campaigns (for chickens)](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/charities/the-humane-league)? \\[Binary question, state a probability between 0 and 1]\n\n\\*measured by your preferred ‘welfare-footprint-like metric’", "short_title": "Cultured meat vs corporate campaign animal welfare benefit", "post_id": 40925, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Question Code**: CM\\_11\n\nThis is being set to inform [The Unjournal's Pivotal Question on the potential for cell-cultured meat](https://docs.google.com/document/d/17WudfkjfwtxDlhu3Dd_ZU4yVTvpEQp7v-QkLkkGDPQo/edit?tab=t.0), and the animal-welfare value of funding innovation in this area." }, { "id": 40924, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "url_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "slug": "germany-enact-aktivrente-pre-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-29T07:26:58.994426Z", "published_at": "2025-11-29T17:23:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T11:57:41.402463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-29T17:23:44.013810Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-22T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T12:25:03.639707Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T12:25:03.639707Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40612, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-29T07:26:58.994863Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-22T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Germany enacts an extra tax-free allowance on employment income for people above statutory retirement age before January 3, 2026.", "fine_print": "This question will not wait for the law to enter into legal force, if the bill is officially enacted this question will immediately resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question will still resolve **Yes** if certain categories of income (such as self-employment) are excluded, as in the existing proposal.", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "post_id": 40924, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765799850.990029, "end_time": 1765804954.924, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765799850.990029, "end_time": 1765804954.924, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9181632049854183 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8600494355428064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0033186276747047033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7635199350978634, 0.039003561466750214, 0.0159215224489576, 0.8439425572964423, 9.393363018001793 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 510, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958)." }, { "id": 40919, "title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-enter-a-shutdown-before-february-1-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-28T23:12:49.091566Z", "published_at": "2025-12-03T11:43:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T01:14:47.321194Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T11:44:01.648818Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-04T11:43:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T09:35:38.791250Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T09:35:38.791250Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40605, "title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-28T23:12:49.092019Z", "open_time": "2025-12-04T11:43:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-08T11:43:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-08T11:43:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n\nAs [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n\n> Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n\n> The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n\n> The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n\n[The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n\nThe deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n\n[The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before February 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the US government is in a lapse of appropriations.\n\nFor the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count). ", "fine_print": "If the US Congress passes appropriations bills such that all government operations are funded through February 1, 2026, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "short_title": "Will the US government enter a shutdown before February 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765761276.652002, "end_time": 1765947119.964, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765761276.652002, "end_time": 1765947119.964, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.33297972149552757 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 1.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The longest ever US government shut down (at 43 days) was ended on November 13, 2025](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-house-vote-deal-end-longest-government-shutdown-history-2025-11-12/). \n\nAs [PBS News reported](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/the-shutdown-is-over-with-no-winners-and-much-frustration-how-did-we-get-here), \n\n> Democrats didn’t get the health insurance provisions they demanded added to the spending deal. And Republicans, who control the levers of power in Washington, didn’t escape blame, according to polls and some state and local elections that went poorly for them.\n\n> The fallout of the shutdown landed on millions of Americans, including federal workers who went without paychecks and airline passengers who had their trips delayed or canceled. An interruption in nutrition assistance programs contributed to long lines at food banks and added emotional distress going into the holiday season.\n\n> The agreement includes bipartisan bills worked out by the Senate Appropriations Committee to fund parts of government — food aid, veterans programs and the legislative branch, among other things. All other funding would be extended until the end of January, giving lawmakers more than two months to finish additional spending bills.\n\n[The economic consequences are still not fully known](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/current-events/government-shutdown). \n\nThe deal extends funding through January 30, 2026, when a new deal will need to be reached. If no deal is agreed then the another shutdown will occur, starting that day.\n\n[The two longest US government shutdowns](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/government-shutdown-history-congress/) have occurred during terms that US President Donald J. Trump has been sitting President. This question asks whether the next phase of this ongoing political rivalry will result in the next government shutdown or will it be averted." }, { "id": 40884, "title": "Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Trump Declare War on Iran before 2029?", "url_title": "Trump Declare War on Iran before 2029?", "slug": "trump-declare-war-on-iran-before-2029", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-28T16:51:38.219177Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T04:33:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-14T23:44:56.695747Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-05T04:34:26.771414Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-06T04:33:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40553, "title": "Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-11-28T16:51:38.219638Z", "open_time": "2025-12-06T04:33:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-10T04:33:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-10T04:33:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-21T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran by January 20, 2029?\n\n[<u>Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress holds the power to declare war, while the President acts as commander-in-chief.</u>](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/articles/article-i/clauses/753#:~:text=The%20Constitution's%20Article%20I%2C%20Section,a%20limit%20on%20presidential%20power.) Article I grants Congress authority over war declarations, and later statutes (such as the War Powers Resolution) require that the President consult and report to Congress when deploying forces into hostilities without a formal declaration of war.\n\nOver time, however, presidents have repeatedly engaged in military actions without formal congressional approval, often citing broad interpretations of statutory authorizations for the use of force or inherent executive authority. For instance, U.S. leaders have used the [post-9/11 Authorization for Use of Military Force](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42699.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) to justify operations abroad, [sometimes extending it into theaters not originally intended by Congress](https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/2001-authorization-use-military-force-comprehensive-look-where-and-how-it-has-been-used). Legal scholars argue that Trump or any future president might similarly assert authority to order strikes on Iran—at least until Congress or courts intervene. \n\nIn mid-2025, legislative efforts intensified to rein in unilateral presidential war powers. In June 2025, t[<u>he Senate voted 53–47 to reject a resolution that would have limited Trump’s authority to launch further military action against Iran without congressional approval.</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-rejects-bid-curb-trumps-iran-war-powers-2025-06-27/) Meanwhile, civil liberties groups have publicly reminded the administration that constitutional checks still apply. The ACLU [<u>issued a statement on June 18, 2025</u>](https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/aclu-reminds-president-trump-that-only-congress-can-decide-whether-to-use-force-against-iran), saying, “The Constitution couldn’t be clearer, Congress alone has the power to decide whether to use force,” and urged Congress and the administration to follow constitutional processes.\n\nGiven this constitutional and institutional framework, it is legally and politically challenging for the Trump administration, or any president, to bypass Congress and formally declare war on Iran. While executive branch legal opinions and precedents offer some ambiguity and leeway, a formal, lasting declaration of war without congressional authorization would likely provoke constitutional challenges, congressional pushback, and judicial review.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Jan 20, 2029, and while Donald Trump is President of the United States, the United States declares war on Iran without an act of Congress authorizing the war.\n\nIf Donald Trump is no longer President of the United States, this question will immediately resolve as No.\n\nIf Congress formally declares war or passes an authorization for use of military force against Iran, this question will immediately resolve as No.", "fine_print": "To qualify, a formal declaration that the United States and Iran are at war must be issued by Trump or his administration, or credible sources must agree that the United States and Iran are at war.", "short_title": "Trump Declare War on Iran before 2029?", "post_id": 40884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765755886.494747, "end_time": 1772806063.979, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765755886.494747, "end_time": 1772806063.979, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.10808357238179427 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2690464055783675, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9131993135682652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* Will Trump bypass the US Congress and declare war on Iran by January 20, 2029?\n\n[<u>Under the U.S. Constitution, only Congress holds the power to declare war, while the President acts as commander-in-chief.</u>](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/articles/article-i/clauses/753#:~:text=The%20Constitution's%20Article%20I%2C%20Section,a%20limit%20on%20presidential%20power.) Article I grants Congress authority over war declarations, and later statutes (such as the War Powers Resolution) require that the President consult and report to Congress when deploying forces into hostilities without a formal declaration of war.\n\nOver time, however, presidents have repeatedly engaged in military actions without formal congressional approval, often citing broad interpretations of statutory authorizations for the use of force or inherent executive authority. For instance, U.S. leaders have used the [post-9/11 Authorization for Use of Military Force](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/natsec/R42699.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com) to justify operations abroad, [sometimes extending it into theaters not originally intended by Congress](https://costsofwar.watson.brown.edu/paper/2001-authorization-use-military-force-comprehensive-look-where-and-how-it-has-been-used). Legal scholars argue that Trump or any future president might similarly assert authority to order strikes on Iran—at least until Congress or courts intervene. \n\nIn mid-2025, legislative efforts intensified to rein in unilateral presidential war powers. In June 2025, t[<u>he Senate voted 53–47 to reject a resolution that would have limited Trump’s authority to launch further military action against Iran without congressional approval.</u>](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-rejects-bid-curb-trumps-iran-war-powers-2025-06-27/) Meanwhile, civil liberties groups have publicly reminded the administration that constitutional checks still apply. The ACLU [<u>issued a statement on June 18, 2025</u>](https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/aclu-reminds-president-trump-that-only-congress-can-decide-whether-to-use-force-against-iran), saying, “The Constitution couldn’t be clearer, Congress alone has the power to decide whether to use force,” and urged Congress and the administration to follow constitutional processes.\n\nGiven this constitutional and institutional framework, it is legally and politically challenging for the Trump administration, or any president, to bypass Congress and formally declare war on Iran. While executive branch legal opinions and precedents offer some ambiguity and leeway, a formal, lasting declaration of war without congressional authorization would likely provoke constitutional challenges, congressional pushback, and judicial review." }, { "id": 40883, "title": "Will the US adopt UBI nationally before the end of 2035?", "short_title": "US UBI Adoption by 2035?", "url_title": "US UBI Adoption by 2035?", "slug": "us-ubi-adoption-by-2035", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-28T16:45:28.447359Z", "published_at": "2025-12-02T13:44:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T01:15:25.497556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-02T13:45:52.208909Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T13:44:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T11:40:49.210653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T11:40:49.210653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40552, "title": "Will the US adopt UBI nationally before the end of 2035?", "created_at": "2025-11-28T16:45:28.447815Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T13:44:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-07T13:44:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-07T13:44:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the US adopt UBI nationally by 2035?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-US-adopt-UBI-nationally-by)\n\n[Universal Basic Income (UBI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a policy in which a government provides regular, unconditional cash payments to all individuals, regardless of income or employment status. It is meant to ensure a basic level of financial security without means-testing or work requirements.\n\nAs of now, the U.S. does *not* have a national UBI. According to a [<u>Congressional Research Service report</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10865), discussions are mostly theoretical: while there have been policy proposals, no large-scale, unconditional, universal cash transfer program has been enacted.\n\nOne of the biggest obstacles is fiscal. [<u>Dynamic modeling by the Penn-Wharton Budget Model </u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2018/3/29/options-for-universal-basic-income-dynamic-modeling?)shows that even a modest UBI (e.g., \\$6,000/year per adult) would dramatically increase the federal debt under many financing scenarios. Without very substantial tax changes or cuts to existing welfare programs, [<u>scaling up would be very expensive</u>](https://www.thirdway.org/memo/five-problems-with-universal-basic-income).\n\nRather than a national program, there are dozens of local and state-level “guaranteed income” pilots. As of 2025, [<u>about 18 U.S. states or territories have city- or nonprofit-led basic-income experiments</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/map-states-universal-basic-income-programs-2025-2103554). These pilots help build data, but they are not universal and don’t guarantee long-term scaling.\n\n### **Political & Structural Hurdles**\n\n1. **Legislative Momentum Is Modest:** There is some movement: for example, in October 2025, the “[<u>Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act of 2025</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/5830/text?)” was introduced in the U.S. House to fund studies of the effects of guaranteed monthly income. But this is for a pilot, not a permanent, universal rollout, and it remains to be seen whether it will pass.\n2. **Ideological Divides:** UBI has both advocates and critics across the political spectrum. Some worry about [<u>disincentivizing work; others worry about the tax burden</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10865?). In some Republican-led states, there’s even pushback: for example, [<u>Iowa passed a ban on local guaranteed income programs that lack work requirements</u>](https://www.axios.com/local/des-moines/2024/04/29/iowas-shuns-guaranteed-income-program-legislature?).\n3. **Uncertainty Around Funding Models:** Some futurist or economic proposals suggest funding a UBI through new mechanisms — for instance, [<u>taxing AI profits or capital gains from automation</u>](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.18687?).[ ](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.18687?utm_source=chatgpt.com)But these remain speculative and would require major tax or structural reforms, which are hard to pass politically.\n\n### **Social Trends That Might Help or Hurt**\n\n1. **Automation & AI Pressure:** Many UBI advocates argue that [<u>automation (especially AI) could displace large parts of the workforce</u>](https://medium.com/%40d.dave.white/universal-basic-income-the-bipartisan-lifeline-for-americas-ai-driven-economic-crossroads-ffa96780c71a), making a safety net like UBI more necessary. But whether political institutions will act in time is uncertain.\n2. **Health & Poverty Research:** Organizations like the [<u>American Medical Association have supported pilot studies to examine how basic income could affect health outcomes</u>](https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2021-06/j21-cms-report-3.pdf?). These pilots help build evidence, but again, they don’t guarantee that a full UBI will be adopted.\n3. **Growing Public Experiments:** The proliferation of local guaranteed-income trials (e.g., in cities or counties) provides [<u>more data, public visibility, and proof-of-concept for broader adoption</u>](https://basicincometoday.com/countries-testing-a-universal-basic-income-in-2025/?). But these programs are often limited in scope and time, meaning they may not translate into national policy without major political shifts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2036, the United States adopts a nationwide Universal Basic Income (UBI) program.\n\nTo qualify, a “Universal Basic Income” program must be a permanent, nationwide policy that provides recurring, unconditional cash payments to all adult U.S. legal residents, without means-testing, work requirements, or categorical eligibility limits.\n\nPayments must be:\n\n* Universal (available to all legal adult residents, with no more than minimal administrative exclusions)\n* Unconditional (no income caps, employment requirements, or behavioral conditions)\n* Recurring (e.g., monthly, quarterly, or annual payments)\n* Established as a permanent federal program", "fine_print": "It does not matter whether the UBI program is instituted through federal legislation passed by Congress and signed by the President or via federal executive action (e.g., a Treasury-administered program).", "short_title": "US UBI Adoption by 2035?", "post_id": 40883, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765761314.938535, "end_time": 1796367945.82, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765761314.938535, "end_time": 1796367945.82, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.2674555602366741 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.48167841893631047, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7098696502650417, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4514354862595773, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.1714427747884803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2764201095245021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the US adopt UBI nationally by 2035?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-US-adopt-UBI-nationally-by)\n\n[Universal Basic Income (UBI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income) is a policy in which a government provides regular, unconditional cash payments to all individuals, regardless of income or employment status. It is meant to ensure a basic level of financial security without means-testing or work requirements.\n\nAs of now, the U.S. does *not* have a national UBI. According to a [<u>Congressional Research Service report</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10865), discussions are mostly theoretical: while there have been policy proposals, no large-scale, unconditional, universal cash transfer program has been enacted.\n\nOne of the biggest obstacles is fiscal. [<u>Dynamic modeling by the Penn-Wharton Budget Model </u>](https://budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2018/3/29/options-for-universal-basic-income-dynamic-modeling?)shows that even a modest UBI (e.g., \\$6,000/year per adult) would dramatically increase the federal debt under many financing scenarios. Without very substantial tax changes or cuts to existing welfare programs, [<u>scaling up would be very expensive</u>](https://www.thirdway.org/memo/five-problems-with-universal-basic-income).\n\nRather than a national program, there are dozens of local and state-level “guaranteed income” pilots. As of 2025, [<u>about 18 U.S. states or territories have city- or nonprofit-led basic-income experiments</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/map-states-universal-basic-income-programs-2025-2103554). These pilots help build data, but they are not universal and don’t guarantee long-term scaling.\n\n### **Political & Structural Hurdles**\n\n1. **Legislative Momentum Is Modest:** There is some movement: for example, in October 2025, the “[<u>Guaranteed Income Pilot Program Act of 2025</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/5830/text?)” was introduced in the U.S. House to fund studies of the effects of guaranteed monthly income. But this is for a pilot, not a permanent, universal rollout, and it remains to be seen whether it will pass.\n2. **Ideological Divides:** UBI has both advocates and critics across the political spectrum. Some worry about [<u>disincentivizing work; others worry about the tax burden</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF10865?). In some Republican-led states, there’s even pushback: for example, [<u>Iowa passed a ban on local guaranteed income programs that lack work requirements</u>](https://www.axios.com/local/des-moines/2024/04/29/iowas-shuns-guaranteed-income-program-legislature?).\n3. **Uncertainty Around Funding Models:** Some futurist or economic proposals suggest funding a UBI through new mechanisms — for instance, [<u>taxing AI profits or capital gains from automation</u>](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.18687?).[ ](https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.18687?utm_source=chatgpt.com)But these remain speculative and would require major tax or structural reforms, which are hard to pass politically.\n\n### **Social Trends That Might Help or Hurt**\n\n1. **Automation & AI Pressure:** Many UBI advocates argue that [<u>automation (especially AI) could displace large parts of the workforce</u>](https://medium.com/%40d.dave.white/universal-basic-income-the-bipartisan-lifeline-for-americas-ai-driven-economic-crossroads-ffa96780c71a), making a safety net like UBI more necessary. But whether political institutions will act in time is uncertain.\n2. **Health & Poverty Research:** Organizations like the [<u>American Medical Association have supported pilot studies to examine how basic income could affect health outcomes</u>](https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2021-06/j21-cms-report-3.pdf?). These pilots help build evidence, but again, they don’t guarantee that a full UBI will be adopted.\n3. **Growing Public Experiments:** The proliferation of local guaranteed-income trials (e.g., in cities or counties) provides [<u>more data, public visibility, and proof-of-concept for broader adoption</u>](https://basicincometoday.com/countries-testing-a-universal-basic-income-in-2025/?). But these programs are often limited in scope and time, meaning they may not translate into national policy without major political shifts." }, { "id": 40882, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "url_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "slug": "sixth-icj-case-in-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-28T15:52:50.599312Z", "published_at": "2025-11-29T17:35:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T11:57:44.962786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-29T17:36:10.539653Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T12:25:03.639707Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T12:25:03.639707Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40551, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-28T15:52:50.599768Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-25T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a contentious case is introduced at the International Court of Justice in December 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc).", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "post_id": 40882, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765799854.113502, "end_time": 1765892269.585, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765799854.113502, "end_time": 1765892269.585, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.08956983895350139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.850240976340088, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9744666099633768, 0.03282480256284937, 0.4937480045806689, 1.4826452247389361, 0.6032257749156062, 2.6472620475568736, 0.5304919015517663, 0.7639263175171609, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6062666629314708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242309595685661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01960959462418559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 440, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia)." }, { "id": 40873, "title": "Will a woman be elected US president in or before the 2044 election?", "short_title": "Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?", "url_title": "Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?", "slug": "will-a-woman-be-elected-us-president-by-2044", "author_id": 283258, "author_username": "Petary", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-27T23:51:31.983767Z", "published_at": "2025-12-02T02:44:30Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-14T23:44:44.379820Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-02T02:44:47.598799Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-11-08T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2044-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T02:44:30Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40545, "title": "Will a woman be elected US president in or before the 2044 election?", "created_at": "2025-11-27T23:51:31.984228Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T02:44:30Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-07T02:44:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-07T02:44:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2044-11-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-11-08T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-11-08T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A woman has never been elected US President. In 1984, [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) became the first major-party candidate for *vice* president, when she ran as Democrat Walter Mondale's running mate, though they lost the election. Subsequently, no woman would be on the ticket until 2008, when [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) was nominated as Republican John McCain's running mate—but they too lost the election. \n\nIn 2016, [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) became the first major-party candidate for president, and although [she won the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), she lost the election to Donald Trump. Then, in 2020, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) became the first woman to be elected vice president. She would go on to [become the presidential nominee in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_candidates) but would lose that election to Trump.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a woman is elected President of the United States in or before the 2044 election.", "fine_print": "A woman becoming President through means other than her election as President will not count toward resolution. Thus, for example, if a woman is elected Vice President and is elevated to the presidency due to a vacancy in the office, that would not cause this question to resolve as yes.", "short_title": "Will a woman be elected US president by 2044?", "post_id": 40873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765755874.065001, "end_time": 1796286521.535, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765755874.065001, "end_time": 1796286521.535, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6302555641024596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28027724950914323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3815909134497419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.687760844610014, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.020262579152652255, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.8117493037268142, 1.5331400643608417, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6727660230194881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A woman has never been elected US President. In 1984, [Geraldine Ferraro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geraldine_Ferraro) became the first major-party candidate for *vice* president, when she ran as Democrat Walter Mondale's running mate, though they lost the election. Subsequently, no woman would be on the ticket until 2008, when [Sarah Palin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin) was nominated as Republican John McCain's running mate—but they too lost the election. \n\nIn 2016, [Hillary Clinton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hillary_Clinton) became the first major-party candidate for president, and although [she won the popular vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), she lost the election to Donald Trump. Then, in 2020, [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris) became the first woman to be elected vice president. She would go on to [become the presidential nominee in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_candidates) but would lose that election to Trump." }, { "id": 40872, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before March 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-successful-coup-in-africa-or-latin-america-by-march-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-27T16:50:03.552443Z", "published_at": "2025-08-20T17:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-11T06:46:51.395526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-27T16:50:19.970042Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-28T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T12:31:25.929468Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T12:31:25.929468Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40544, "title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America before March 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-27T16:50:03.552916Z", "open_time": "2025-11-28T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-01T18:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-01T18:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Guinea-Bisau November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a successful coup d’état in any country on the African continent or Latin America after November 28, 2025 and before March 1, 2026, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) media reports. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Latin America is defined as any country in North America or South America whose primary language is Spanish, Portuguese or French.\n\nA coup d’état (often shortened to \"coup\") is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coup_d'%C3%A9tat) as an event in which a state's military or other components of its power structure overthrow the existing political authority.\n\nA \"successful\" coup is defined as a coup in which the group or person attempting to seize power establishes control over both the government and military, and will be considered to have succeeded once any significant organized resistance to their control from within the government or military has ceased, according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nA self-coup, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-coup) as a political leader, having come to power through legal means, remaining in power through illegal means, will count. This includes scenarios in which an incumbent leader refuses to relinquish power after an election.\n\nExternal support for a coup, such as is described [here](https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/), will count as long as the mercenaries or other external actors are acting in support of a perpetrator from within the state.\n\nCivil wars, mutinies, rebellions or popular uprisings will not count, nor will changes to a country's constitution that restrict a country's democratic norms.", "short_title": "Will there be a successful coup in Africa or Latin America by March 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765435601.045786, "end_time": 1765856743.271, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765435601.045786, "end_time": 1765856743.271, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": 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false, "description": "According to [Powell & Thyne (2011, p. 252)](https://www.uky.edu/~clthyn2/powell-thyne-JPR-2011.pdf) a coup is \"illegal and overt attempts by the military or other elites within the state apparatus to unseat the sitting executive.\" In recent years, some of the coups in Africa have been: \n\n* [Guinea-Bisau November 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Madagascar October 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Malagasy_mutiny)\n* [Mali August 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Mali May 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Malian_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Niger March 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Nigerien_coup_attempt) (attempt)\n* [Niger July 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerien_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Gabon August 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Gabonese_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Chad January 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_N%27Djamena_attack) (possible attempt)\n* [Burkina Faso January 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n* [Burkina Faso September 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/September_2022_Burkina_Faso_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat) \n* [Guinea September 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Guinean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat)\n\nLatin America has had the following coup attempts in recent years:\n\n* [Peru self-coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Peruvian_self-coup_attempt), December 2022\n* [Brazil Congress attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Brazilian_Congress_attack), January 2023\n* [Bolivia coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Bolivian_coup_attempt), June 2024\n\nSee also: [VoA by the numbers Coups in Africa](https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/)" }, { "id": 40867, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "short_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "url_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "slug": "peoples-party-absolute-majority-in-extremadura-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-26T09:06:34.510108Z", "published_at": "2025-11-30T01:51:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-02T18:37:46.658485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-26T09:06:34.687116Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-30T01:51:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": 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"2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-13T20:52:21.249581Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40531, "title": "Will the People's Party win an absolute majority in the next regional elections in Extremadura, Spain?", "created_at": "2025-11-26T09:06:34.510569Z", "open_time": "2025-11-30T01:51:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-23T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T03:21:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40750,\"question_id\":40404}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, according to the [official final results](https://www.juntaelectoralcentral.es/cs/jec/elecciones/autonomicas/extremadura) of the 2025 regional elections in Extremadura, Spain, the People’s Party (PP) led by María Guardiola wins at least 33 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura, thereby achieving an absolute majority without the need for coalition partners or external support.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if the PP wins fewer than 33 seats, regardless of any post-election agreements, coalitions or confidence-and-supply arrangements.\n\nThe resolution will be based solely on the final official results published by the relevant electoral authorities. Recounts or corrections will be taken into account only if they appear in the certified final tally.", "fine_print": "If the election does not take place as scheduled, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "People's Party absolute majority in Extremadura in 2025?", "post_id": 40867, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764472376.778262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764472376.778262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19294891839013892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Regional elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Extremaduran_regional_election) are scheduled to take place in Extremadura, Spain, on December 21, 2025. Elections were called early after the regional government was unable to secure approval of the annual budget.\n\n[María Guardiola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mar%C3%ADa_Guardiola) is the current leader of the [People's Party (PP) in Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Party_of_Extremadura) and is expected to run again as the party’s candidate for the Presidency of the [Junta de Extremadura](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Government_of_Extremadura). The [Assembly of Extremadura](https://www.asambleaex.es/) has 65 seats. An absolute majority requires at least 33 seats.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40750,\"question_id\":40404}}`" }, { "id": 40865, "title": "Will Israel pass the Penal Bill (Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment) into law before April 2026?", "short_title": "Will Israel pass the Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment before April 2026?", "url_title": "Will Israel pass the Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment before April 2026?", "slug": "will-israel-pass-the-death-penalty-for-terrorists-amendment-before-april-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-25T22:39:07.635896Z", "published_at": "2025-11-28T19:44:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T00:23:07.956991Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-28T19:44:51.455587Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-29T19:44:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40522, "title": "Will Israel pass the Penal Bill (Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment) into law before April 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-25T22:39:07.636374Z", "open_time": "2025-11-29T19:44:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T19:44:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T19:44:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On November 3, 2025, Israel's [National Security Committee convened and voted to approve](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press31125r.aspx?) the first reading of two bills entitled the Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists). \n\n> The explanatory notes to the bill state that its purpose is to curtail terrorism and create a weighty deterrent. It is proposed that a terrorist who is convicted of murder from a motive of racism or hostility against a population, and under circumstances in which the act was committed with the aim of harming the State of Israel and the national revival of the Jewish people in its land, will be sentenced to a mandatory death penalty. This will be neither optional nor with \\[judicial] discretion. Additionally, the bill proposes that it will be possible to impose a death sentence by majority opinion, and that the penalty imposed on a person who was given a final sentence cannot be commuted.\n\nOn November 11, 2025, the [Knesset Plenum (the central and supreme authoritative body of the Knesset) approved the first reading 39 to 16](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press111125q.aspx). \n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv13rxpgk9o), \n\n> Far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir - whose Jewish Power party brought the vote - celebrated late on Monday by handing out sweets.\n\nAs reported by [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/10/middleeast/israel-parliament-death-penalty-foreign-media-hnk-intl), \n\n> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously opposed the bill, citing concerns over potential retaliation against Israeli hostages held in Gaza. However, he has since reversed his stance following the implementation of a fragile ceasefire.\n\nThe bill has been described as \"controversial\" by Western sources, but its sponsors have stated its importance in light of recent events and current conflicts.\n\n> MK Sonn Har Melech: “I stand here in the name of all the bereaved brothers, widows and orphans. I stand here in the name of my own personal orphans. A death penalty for terrorists is a personal and national obligation. I stand here before you in the name of the thousands of combatants and murder victims and their families, and I am crying out that the time has come to change the preconception. This bill is a moral and national response, it is a bill of justice, which says that Jewish blood is not forfeit.\"\n>  \n> MK Vaturi: “This is a watershed moment. I think that this bill is very important for the people of Israel. We must not be ashamed and bow our head. We must pass this bill. After October 7, there are no more doubts. We owe this to our murdered brothers.\"\n>  \n> MK Tzvika Foghel (Otzma Yehudit): “This is a historic moment. Whoever comes to murder Jews from hatred of the State of Israel—will bear the consequences. There will be no more hotels for terrorists, there will be no more release deals. This is a first and significant step towards creating real deterrence and justice for the victims.\"\n\nThe Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists) will need to pass second and third readings before it can officially pass into law.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, UTC, the Penal Bill (Amendment No. 159) (Death Penalty for Terrorists) 2025 is passed officially into law in the Knesset according to [the official Knesset website](https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/Pages/default.aspx).", "fine_print": "It is irrelevant whether the Knesset website is updated before April 1, 2026; all that matters is whether the law itself passes before the deadline.\n\nIf the Penal Bill (Amendment No. 159) (Death Penalty for Terrorists) 2025 is modified significantly in content such that it no longer provides for the death penalty, then this question will resolve as **No** even if it is passed into law.", "short_title": "Will Israel pass the Death Penalty for Terrorists amendment before April 2026?", "post_id": 40865, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765758177.074995, "end_time": 1766362977.527, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765758177.074995, "end_time": 1766362977.527, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5926745587740395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On November 3, 2025, Israel's [National Security Committee convened and voted to approve](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press31125r.aspx?) the first reading of two bills entitled the Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists). \n\n> The explanatory notes to the bill state that its purpose is to curtail terrorism and create a weighty deterrent. It is proposed that a terrorist who is convicted of murder from a motive of racism or hostility against a population, and under circumstances in which the act was committed with the aim of harming the State of Israel and the national revival of the Jewish people in its land, will be sentenced to a mandatory death penalty. This will be neither optional nor with \\[judicial] discretion. Additionally, the bill proposes that it will be possible to impose a death sentence by majority opinion, and that the penalty imposed on a person who was given a final sentence cannot be commuted.\n\nOn November 11, 2025, the [Knesset Plenum (the central and supreme authoritative body of the Knesset) approved the first reading 39 to 16](https://main.knesset.gov.il/en/news/pressreleases/pages/press111125q.aspx). \n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpv13rxpgk9o), \n\n> Far-right National Security Minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir - whose Jewish Power party brought the vote - celebrated late on Monday by handing out sweets.\n\nAs reported by [CNN](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/10/middleeast/israel-parliament-death-penalty-foreign-media-hnk-intl), \n\n> Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had previously opposed the bill, citing concerns over potential retaliation against Israeli hostages held in Gaza. However, he has since reversed his stance following the implementation of a fragile ceasefire.\n\nThe bill has been described as \"controversial\" by Western sources, but its sponsors have stated its importance in light of recent events and current conflicts.\n\n> MK Sonn Har Melech: “I stand here in the name of all the bereaved brothers, widows and orphans. I stand here in the name of my own personal orphans. A death penalty for terrorists is a personal and national obligation. I stand here before you in the name of the thousands of combatants and murder victims and their families, and I am crying out that the time has come to change the preconception. This bill is a moral and national response, it is a bill of justice, which says that Jewish blood is not forfeit.\"\n>  \n> MK Vaturi: “This is a watershed moment. I think that this bill is very important for the people of Israel. We must not be ashamed and bow our head. We must pass this bill. After October 7, there are no more doubts. We owe this to our murdered brothers.\"\n>  \n> MK Tzvika Foghel (Otzma Yehudit): “This is a historic moment. Whoever comes to murder Jews from hatred of the State of Israel—will bear the consequences. There will be no more hotels for terrorists, there will be no more release deals. This is a first and significant step towards creating real deterrence and justice for the victims.\"\n\nThe Penal Bill (Amendment—Death Penalty for Terrorists) will need to pass second and third readings before it can officially pass into law." } ] }
