Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
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Community", "type": "community", "slug": "bths", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 133576, "username": "Quincy", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32727, "name": "Brooklyn Tech Forecasting Community", "type": "community", "slug": "bths", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 133576, "username": "Quincy", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 37873, "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo win the New York City Mayor's race?", "created_at": "2025-06-17T14:31:07.168342Z", "open_time": "2025-06-17T14:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York City has an election in November, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "After Election Day, Andrew Cuomo is unambiguously elected Mayor of New York City.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38651, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751329988.340531, "end_time": 1753709329.746, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751329988.340531, "end_time": 1753709329.746, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.34317590404009635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York City has an election in November, 2025." }, { "id": 38650, "title": "Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the US or Israel attack the Fordow Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the US or Israel attack the Fordow Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-or-israel-attack-the-fordow-enrichment-plant-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-17T13:45:19.779663Z", "published_at": "2025-06-18T21:10:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:55.521163Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-18T21:11:16.816380Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-21T23:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T22:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37872, "title": "Will the United States or Israel attack the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-06-17T13:45:19.780394Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T22:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-21T13:10:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-21T23:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-22T00:41:42.268605Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-21T23:39:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New York Times: [Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/us/politics/trump-iran-diplomacy-conflict.html)\n\n> President Trump is weighing a critical decision in the four-day-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by American B-2 bombers, can reach.\n\n> “Fordo has always been the crux of this thing,” said Brett McGurk, who worked on Middle East issues for four successive American presidents, from George W. Bush to Joseph R. Biden Jr. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.”\n\n> That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant):\n\n> **Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant** (**FFEP**) is an Iranian underground [uranium enrichment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_enrichment \"Uranium enrichment\") facility located 30 kilometres (20 mi) northeast of the Iranian city of [Qom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qom \"Qom\"), at a former [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps \"Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps\") base.The site is under the control of the [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Energy_Organization_of_Iran \"Atomic Energy Organization of Iran\") (AEOI). It is the second Iranian [uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium \"Uranium\") enrichment facility, the other being the [Natanz Nuclear Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natanz_Nuclear_Facility \"Natanz Nuclear Facility\").\n\nIn addition to the US striking the Fordow enrichment facility, there have also been reports of Israel [requesting](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-seeks-us-bunker-buster-14-000-kg-bomb-to-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-8691511) to be supplied with the bunker buster by the US. The Trump Administration is reported to be [considering](https://zamin.uz/en/world/152401-a-warning-signal-from-the-us-to-israel-bunker-bombs-under-discussion.html) the request.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States or Israel launches a direct kinetic attack on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in Iran, either by using a weapon system that has the ability to penetrate the ground deeply enough to significantly degrade and damage the plant or by planting explosives through a ground operation, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "An example of a weapon system that would count is the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP), \n\nAn example of a ground operation that would count is the 2024 [Masyaf commando raid](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Masyaf_raid).\n\nAn attack must be kinetic, which for purposes of this question [is defined as](https://defensescoop.com/2023/09/19/how-army-leaders-envision-non-kinetic-capabilities-enabling-traditional-forces/) involving weapons systems such as bombs that physically engage targets. Non-kinetic attacks, such as the [Stuxnet cyber attack](https://spectrum.ieee.org/the-real-story-of-stuxnet) that destroyed centrifuges at a different Iranian facility, will not count for purposes of this question. \n\nThe attack must also be direct, which means physically targeting and making contact with the plant itself. Indirect attacks, such as Israel's June 13, 2025 [attack](https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/detail/post-attack-analysis-of-israels-june-12-13-military-attack-on-irans-nuclear) on the electrical energy supply of Iran's Natanz facility, would not count, even if they result in the destruction of centrifuges or other parts of the Fordow plant.\n\nFor purposes of this question, resolution is based on whether an attack on the FFEP facility has taken place rather than the amount of damage actually inflicted. ", "post_id": 38650, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750547615.836841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750547615.836841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8893021699379473 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8245934183577383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 1.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2094383301743106, 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4352674891062542 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 1.2774866200924622, "peer_score": 0.21597916852858942, "coverage": 0.01537516997758669, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9854545892416021, "spot_peer_score": 11.1960629605853, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 1.2774866200924622, "peer_archived_score": 0.21597916852858942, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.1960629605853, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New York Times: [Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/us/politics/trump-iran-diplomacy-conflict.html)\n\n> President Trump is weighing a critical decision in the four-day-old war between Israel and Iran: whether to enter the fray by helping Israel destroy the deeply buried nuclear enrichment facility at Fordo, which only America’s biggest “bunker buster,” dropped by American B-2 bombers, can reach.\n\n> “Fordo has always been the crux of this thing,” said Brett McGurk, who worked on Middle East issues for four successive American presidents, from George W. Bush to Joseph R. Biden Jr. “If this ends with Fordo still enriching, then it’s not a strategic gain.”\n\n> That has been true for a long time, and over the past two years the U.S. military has refined the operation, under close White House scrutiny. The exercises led to the conclusion that one bomb would not solve the problem; any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordow_Fuel_Enrichment_Plant):\n\n> **Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant** (**FFEP**) is an Iranian underground [uranium enrichment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_enrichment \"Uranium enrichment\") facility located 30 kilometres (20 mi) northeast of the Iranian city of [Qom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qom \"Qom\"), at a former [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Revolutionary_Guard_Corps \"Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps\") base.The site is under the control of the [Atomic Energy Organization of Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_Energy_Organization_of_Iran \"Atomic Energy Organization of Iran\") (AEOI). It is the second Iranian [uranium](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium \"Uranium\") enrichment facility, the other being the [Natanz Nuclear Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natanz_Nuclear_Facility \"Natanz Nuclear Facility\").\n\nIn addition to the US striking the Fordow enrichment facility, there have also been reports of Israel [requesting](https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-seeks-us-bunker-buster-14-000-kg-bomb-to-hit-irans-nuclear-sites-8691511) to be supplied with the bunker buster by the US. The Trump Administration is reported to be [considering](https://zamin.uz/en/world/152401-a-warning-signal-from-the-us-to-israel-bunker-bombs-under-discussion.html) the request." }, { "id": 38646, "title": "Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?", "short_title": "Somaliland recognition pre-Sep 2025?", "url_title": "Somaliland recognition pre-Sep 2025?", "slug": "somaliland-recognition-pre-sep-2025", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-17T08:11:01.179941Z", "published_at": "2025-06-20T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T18:11:32.639538Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-20T16:44:33.834414Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37863, "title": "Will any country recognise Somaliland before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-17T08:11:01.180605Z", "open_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-30T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Somaliland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somaliland), officially the Republic of Somaliland, is an unrecognised state in the Horn of Africa. It has exercised de facto independence from Somalia since 1991 and maintains its own government, security forces, and currency.\n\nDuring the 1980s, Somalia faced growing armed opposition to the central government, including in the north, where the [Somali National Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_National_Movement) (SNM) was active. The situation escalated into a [broader civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War) by the late 1980s, leading to widespread instability across the country. After the collapse of the Somali government in 1991, SNM leaders and clan representatives in the north held a conference in Burao and declared the independence of Somaliland.\n\nSomaliland has sought international recognition since 1991, maintaining diplomatic outreach to regional and global partners. Ethiopia has been among the most receptive, signing a [memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding) with Somaliland in January 2024 that included political cooperation and a stated intention to work toward recognition. In August 2024, Ethiopia appointed its first ambassador to the country, though stopped short of formal recognition.\n\nIn recent years, Somaliland has engaged with the United States and Israel to gain international recognition. In early 2025, the US reportedly [considered](https://www.ft.com/content/dca62783-8bfd-404e-92dc-0f1d4e6410f5) recognising Somaliland in exchange for military access to Berbera port, while Israel has discussed establishing a naval base there. Both countries also reportedly [approached](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/14/us-and-israel-look-to-africa-for-resettling-palestinians-uprooted-from-gaza) Somaliland about accepting Palestinians expelled from Gaza. Somaliland's President [claimed in May 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/may/30/exclusive-somaliland-president-says-recognition-of-state-on-the-horizon-following-trump-talks) that \"recognition is on the horizon\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 2025, any country formally recognises Somaliland as a sovereign state.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"country\" is defined as a full member state of the United Nations.", "post_id": 38646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752516682.238583, "end_time": 1752530138.975, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752516682.238583, "end_time": 1752530138.975, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1047092878544703 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5074823398283235, 0.39421402338297956, 0.6446199386586473, 1.8229974452233344, 0.007620644183175067, 1.126612620823665, 0.24730388026313516, 0.36312033084951434, 2.196329355027212, 0.5311378132295748, 2.6938363098103593, 1.0682490001385343, 0.9986934699155549, 0.34091522091079124, 0.8451517062867188, 0.974662320175447, 0.768545791507254, 0.0, 0.014933198210305589, 0.009647069809170485, 0.11733862573073987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11748015754342675, 0.045779439086610973, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09378499354577581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01206526874919091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5319388846251607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034020563898552146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026921361684113475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 332, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Somaliland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somaliland), officially the Republic of Somaliland, is an unrecognised state in the Horn of Africa. It has exercised de facto independence from Somalia since 1991 and maintains its own government, security forces, and currency.\n\nDuring the 1980s, Somalia faced growing armed opposition to the central government, including in the north, where the [Somali National Movement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_National_Movement) (SNM) was active. The situation escalated into a [broader civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Somali_Civil_War) by the late 1980s, leading to widespread instability across the country. After the collapse of the Somali government in 1991, SNM leaders and clan representatives in the north held a conference in Burao and declared the independence of Somaliland.\n\nSomaliland has sought international recognition since 1991, maintaining diplomatic outreach to regional and global partners. Ethiopia has been among the most receptive, signing a [memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding) with Somaliland in January 2024 that included political cooperation and a stated intention to work toward recognition. In August 2024, Ethiopia appointed its first ambassador to the country, though stopped short of formal recognition.\n\nIn recent years, Somaliland has engaged with the United States and Israel to gain international recognition. In early 2025, the US reportedly [considered](https://www.ft.com/content/dca62783-8bfd-404e-92dc-0f1d4e6410f5) recognising Somaliland in exchange for military access to Berbera port, while Israel has discussed establishing a naval base there. Both countries also reportedly [approached](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/14/us-and-israel-look-to-africa-for-resettling-palestinians-uprooted-from-gaza) Somaliland about accepting Palestinians expelled from Gaza. Somaliland's President [claimed in May 2025](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/may/30/exclusive-somaliland-president-says-recognition-of-state-on-the-horizon-following-trump-talks) that \"recognition is on the horizon\"." }, { "id": 38645, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "short_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "url_title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "slug": "will-the-colorado-rockies-lose-122-or-more-games-in-the-2025-mlb-season", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-17T01:00:21.619814Z", "published_at": "2025-06-17T13:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T06:26:58.286583Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-18T01:07:10.252463Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T13:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37862, "title": "Will the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 MLB season?", "created_at": "2025-06-17T01:00:21.620272Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T13:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-23T01:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-28T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "If the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Colorado Rockies lose 122 or more games in the 2025 Major League Baseball season. \n\nThe Rockies' loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular accounts of the 2025 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). ", "fine_print": "Although teams are expected to play 162 games in the regular season, this question resolves as **No** if the Colorado Rockies have lost fewer than 122 games at the conclusion of the 2025 MLB regular season, regardless of whether games are cancelled or the season is truncated.\n\nThis question also resolves as **No** if it becomes mathematically impossible for the Rockies to lose 122 games.", "post_id": 38645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752474407.668793, "end_time": 1753705524.343, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752474407.668793, "end_time": 1753705524.343, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5900210474347667 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "If the Colorado Rockies were to lose 122 games, it would set a new record for most losses in a single season in the modern era of Major League Baseball (1901-present). In the 2024 season, the Chicago White Sox [set the record](https://www.yardbarker.com/mlb/articles/white_sox_break_record_for_most_modern_era_losses_in_an_mlb_season/s1_13132_40965583) for most losses in the modern era, at 121. \n\nThe Rockies recently [snapped](https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6402664/2025/06/04/rockies-colorado-series-losing-streak-mlb-history/) a record losing streak of 22 straight series losses in the 2025 season.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context." }, { "id": 38640, "title": "Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?", "short_title": "USA gives Israel Bunker Busting Bombs?", "url_title": "USA gives Israel Bunker Busting Bombs?", "slug": "usa-gives-israel-bunker-busting-bombs", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-16T16:34:58.239256Z", "published_at": "2025-06-18T20:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T18:07:25.227268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-17T20:41:39.830759Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37854, "title": "Will The United States Give Israel Bunker Busting Bombs By The End of June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-16T16:34:58.239719Z", "open_time": "2025-06-18T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-20T20:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-07T07:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-07T07:40:33.866530Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> **\"This Week\" co-anchor Martha Raddatz:** Let's talk about Fordow. It's deep in a mountainside. There are those who do not believe you can destroy Fordow without U.S. help and those bunker-busting bombs. Is it possible without U.S. help?\n\n> **Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel \"Michael\" Leiter:** The help that we've asked from the United States is confined to defensive posture. We're very, very thankful to President Trump and the administration for the THAAD missile, anti-missile defense system, for the Aegis missile defense system, but it's only in a defensive posture. We have a number of contingencies, will -- which will enable us to deal with Fordow. Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar.\n\n(source [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-6-15-25-sen-amy-klobuchar/story?id=122854690))", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the United States provides Israel with a bomb capable of penetrating greater than or equal to 60 meters (200 feet) of reinforced concrete or soil, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). ", "fine_print": "An example of a bomb that would count is the [GBU-57A/B MOP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP).", "post_id": 38640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751335847.783526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751335847.783526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0024127739094572842 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.780394801227438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.1776074273979, "peer_score": 6.164707668398573, "coverage": 0.9996165190696539, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996165190696539, "spot_peer_score": 20.134785849984073, "spot_baseline_score": 91.07326619029126, "baseline_archived_score": 93.1776074273979, "peer_archived_score": 6.164707668398573, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.134785849984073, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 91.07326619029126 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 83, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> **\"This Week\" co-anchor Martha Raddatz:** Let's talk about Fordow. It's deep in a mountainside. There are those who do not believe you can destroy Fordow without U.S. help and those bunker-busting bombs. Is it possible without U.S. help?\n\n> **Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel \"Michael\" Leiter:** The help that we've asked from the United States is confined to defensive posture. We're very, very thankful to President Trump and the administration for the THAAD missile, anti-missile defense system, for the Aegis missile defense system, but it's only in a defensive posture. We have a number of contingencies, will -- which will enable us to deal with Fordow. Not everything is a matter of, you know, taking to the skies and bombing from afar.\n\n(source [ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-6-15-25-sen-amy-klobuchar/story?id=122854690))" }, { "id": 38639, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before August 2025?", "url_title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before August 2025?", "slug": "will-the-united-states-strike-the-iranian-military-before-august-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-16T12:09:52.668440Z", "published_at": "2025-06-16T12:59:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:14.755579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-16T13:00:12.006168Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37853, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military in Iran before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-16T12:09:52.669016Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-22T00:38:50.307742Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-21T23:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 13, 2025, Israel [launched attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) on several targets in Iran, including nuclear sites and military installations and killing several top Iranian military officials and nuclear scientists. In response, Iran [launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Israel) missile and drone attacks on Israel, hitting Israeli military and intelligence sites as well as residential areas.\n\nAt the time of this question, the United States has reportedly pushed back on Israeli plans to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/15/politics/us-military-trump-israel-iran), as well as preferring to remain out of the conflict. However, also according to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/politics/trump-iran-israel-peace-efforts-g7), Senator Lindsay Graham has urged the Trump Administration to increase its involvement including possible airstrikes:\n\n> \"If diplomacy is not successful, and we are left with the option of force, I would urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program,” Graham, a key Trump ally, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs. If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence said:\n\n> And at the end of the day, if Israel needs our help to ensure that the Iranian nuclear program is destroyed once and for all, the United States of America needs to be prepared to do it, because this is about protecting our most cherished ally.\n\nIn an interview Donald Trump conducted with journalist Michael Scherer of The Atlantic on June 15, 2025:\n\n> “Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America first,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,” Trump told Scherer. “For those people who say they want peace — you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon — that’s not peace.”\n\nAt the time of this question, there have additionally been reports about the US government's possible [willingness](https://news.antiwar.com/2025/06/15/sources-us-will-enter-israels-war-with-iran/) to engage in airstrikes against Iran, aerial refueling aircraft [flying east](https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1934527953276153915) from the continental United States, and warships such as the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier [sailing toward](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2025/06/13/us-shifts-warships-in-mideast-in-response-to-israel-strikes/) the Middle East.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 15, 2025, and before August 1, 2025, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against Iranian military targets within the geographic territory of Iran.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the Iranian military includes official Iranian military personnel and equipment possessed and operated by Iran. It does not include the personnel or equipment of any groups which may be supported or backed by Iran.\n\nA public confirmation will be considered one in which an official acting on behalf of the US government makes a statement that satisfies these criteria and does not include anonymous reports or leaks.\n\nIranian nuclear facilities count as military targets. 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In response, Iran [launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Iranian_strikes_on_Israel) missile and drone attacks on Israel, hitting Israeli military and intelligence sites as well as residential areas.\n\nAt the time of this question, the United States has reportedly pushed back on Israeli plans to kill Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/15/politics/us-military-trump-israel-iran), as well as preferring to remain out of the conflict. However, also according to [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/16/politics/trump-iran-israel-peace-efforts-g7), Senator Lindsay Graham has urged the Trump Administration to increase its involvement including possible airstrikes:\n\n> \"If diplomacy is not successful, and we are left with the option of force, I would urge President Trump to go all in to make sure that, when this operation is over, there’s nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program,” Graham, a key Trump ally, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” “If that means providing bombs, provide bombs. If that means flying with Israel, fly with Israel.”\n\nFormer Vice President Mike Pence said:\n\n> And at the end of the day, if Israel needs our help to ensure that the Iranian nuclear program is destroyed once and for all, the United States of America needs to be prepared to do it, because this is about protecting our most cherished ally.\n\nIn an interview Donald Trump conducted with journalist Michael Scherer of The Atlantic on June 15, 2025:\n\n> “Well, considering that I’m the one that developed ‘America first,’ and considering that the term wasn’t used until I came along, I think I’m the one that decides that,” Trump told Scherer. “For those people who say they want peace — you can’t have peace if Iran has a nuclear weapon. So for all of those wonderful people who don’t want to do anything about Iran having a nuclear weapon — that’s not peace.”\n\nAt the time of this question, there have additionally been reports about the US government's possible [willingness](https://news.antiwar.com/2025/06/15/sources-us-will-enter-israels-war-with-iran/) to engage in airstrikes against Iran, aerial refueling aircraft [flying east](https://x.com/flightradar24/status/1934527953276153915) from the continental United States, and warships such as the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier [sailing toward](https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2025/06/13/us-shifts-warships-in-mideast-in-response-to-israel-strikes/) the Middle East." }, { "id": 38633, "title": "Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ali Khamenei make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ali Khamenei make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "slug": "will-ali-khamenei-make-a-public-appearance-in-iran-before-july-14-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-14T19:11:16.373391Z", "published_at": "2025-06-14T20:07:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T09:07:55.980104Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-14T20:08:27Z", "comment_count": 37, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-14T20:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 156, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": 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], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37850, "title": "Will Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, make a public appearance in Iran before July 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-14T19:11:16.374216Z", "open_time": "2025-06-14T20:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-14T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-05T19:46:27.957705Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-11T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-05T15:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) [struck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) several targets in Iran, including the private residences of several of Iran's top leaders. In the wake of the strikes, rumors arose that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had [been killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-khamenei-is-alive-security-source-tells-reuters-2025-06-13/) or had [fled the country](https://x.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1933923628904853857?t=zLFB8cSLHXaZRi_SmcuzyA\\&s=19).\n\nSome recent public appearances of Khamenei are:\n\n* June 4, 2025 delivering live televised remarks from the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the former supreme leader of Iran. ([Tasnim News Agency](https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062025-in-fiery-televised-speach-ayatollah-khamenei-dismisses-us-plan-reasserts-irans-right-to-enrichment/))\n* May 20, 2025 speaking at the one-year anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi's death. ([National Council of Resistance of Iran](https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/khameneis-hardline-stance-on-nuclear-program-exposes-deepening-instability-in-irans-regime/))\n* May 12, 2025 meeting in Tehran with members of the National Conference in Commemoration of Martyred Aid Workers ([Iran Daily](https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7832/8/15390))\n* May 10, 2025 meeting with a group of labor leaders ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512880/Minds-must-not-be-diverted-from-Palestine-Leader))\n* May 4, 2025 meeting with Iranian officials overseeing Hajj pilgrimage ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512618/Leader-Nothing-more-beneficial-for-Islamic-world-than-unity))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 14, 2025 and before July 14, 2025, Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei makes a public appearance within the geographic territory of Iran, according to <u>c</u>[<u>redible source</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting.\n\nIf this has not occurred during the period in question, then this question will resolve as **No**. It will additionally resolve as **No** if Khamenei dies or permanently resigns from the position of Supreme Leader before July 14, 2025.", "fine_print": "A public appearance is defined as Khamenei presenting himself in front of an audience.\n\nA television address would count, as long as it is credibly reported that Khamenei has made the address from within Iran. It would count even if it was pre-recorded, as long as there is credible evidence that it was recorded from within Iran in the relevant time period.", "post_id": 38633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751729805.949188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751729805.949188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 109, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2659314338333779 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16090580356074474, 0.19275978708881347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.784846217452747, 0.25671994647453994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3655598090769043, 0.0, 0.24668123105594594, 0.020591683781788054, 0.6123617123286828, 0.31163789150775084, 0.2462159879881697, 1.7553217278089648, 0.582275501896683, 1.015708988999516, 0.1591383639163003, 2.2397119808514216, 1.7573810211542726, 0.9027546891530904, 0.0, 0.2240167173441031, 0.0, 0.4931854095622603, 0.5287235467291957, 0.5535248082704115, 0.7897867294796221, 0.0, 1.0955267124638732, 0.09382684663478094, 0.010843095881615717, 0.002724718614387186, 0.005278284780573776, 0.13792324915068002, 0.738978031925676, 0.025784634518108276, 0.005806345621716643, 0.016313681154631558, 0.5336654101566651, 0.0, 0.03205485872214182, 0.0, 0.0005871052169841407, 0.2645108706225655, 0.004789702417281179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3760402883750461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04541843129948949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023942442062986697, 0.0004119719893889613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009338405106678075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004945415509891084, 0.0003385574481498503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8653817434275857, 0.0, 0.012809810214353387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016910023390508207, 0.0, 0.499817541528374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003537004892243706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38539999791747515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -38.56429201130662, "peer_score": 10.402455571413254, "coverage": 0.7911142300765774, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989549160433168, "spot_peer_score": 26.471959513998996, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433588, "baseline_archived_score": -38.56429201130662, "peer_archived_score": 10.402455571413254, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.471959513998996, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433588 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 970, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 13, 2025, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) [struck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/June_2025_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran) several targets in Iran, including the private residences of several of Iran's top leaders. In the wake of the strikes, rumors arose that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had [been killed](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/irans-supreme-leader-khamenei-is-alive-security-source-tells-reuters-2025-06-13/) or had [fled the country](https://x.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1933923628904853857?t=zLFB8cSLHXaZRi_SmcuzyA\\&s=19).\n\nSome recent public appearances of Khamenei are:\n\n* June 4, 2025 delivering live televised remarks from the mausoleum of Ruhollah Khomeini, the former supreme leader of Iran. ([Tasnim News Agency](https://www.eurasiareview.com/05062025-in-fiery-televised-speach-ayatollah-khamenei-dismisses-us-plan-reasserts-irans-right-to-enrichment/))\n* May 20, 2025 speaking at the one-year anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi's death. ([National Council of Resistance of Iran](https://www.ncr-iran.org/en/news/khameneis-hardline-stance-on-nuclear-program-exposes-deepening-instability-in-irans-regime/))\n* May 12, 2025 meeting in Tehran with members of the National Conference in Commemoration of Martyred Aid Workers ([Iran Daily](https://newspaper.irandaily.ir/7832/8/15390))\n* May 10, 2025 meeting with a group of labor leaders ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512880/Minds-must-not-be-diverted-from-Palestine-Leader))\n* May 4, 2025 meeting with Iranian officials overseeing Hajj pilgrimage ([Tehran Times](https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/512618/Leader-Nothing-more-beneficial-for-Islamic-world-than-unity))" }, { "id": 38630, "title": "Will OpenAI declare GPT 6 or its equivalent AGI?", "short_title": "GPT 6 AGI?", "url_title": "GPT 6 AGI?", "slug": "gpt-6-agi", "author_id": 273945, "author_username": "thunderbear170", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-14T03:23:06.456958Z", "published_at": null, "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:14.497552Z", "curation_status": "pending", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-14T03:25:18.026754Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "pending", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "open_time": null, "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37848, "title": "Will OpenAI declare GPT 6 or its equivalent AGI?", "created_at": "2025-06-14T03:23:06.457431Z", "open_time": null, "cp_reveal_time": null, "spot_scoring_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "upcoming", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "OpenAI has stated its mission is to build safe Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that benefits all of humanity. While no universally accepted definition of AGI exists, OpenAI describes it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” OpenAI has also suggested it might publicly recognize the arrival of AGI when specific internal performance and safety thresholds are met.\n\nAs of mid-2025, GPT‑4 and its successors (e.g., GPT‑4.5, GPT‑4‑turbo, and o4-mini) have shown advanced capabilities in reasoning, coding, and multimodal understanding, but OpenAI has not declared any of them AGI. GPT‑5 is anticipated to release in 2025, and GPT‑6 is expected to follow sometime afterward. Speculation has increased about whether GPT‑6—or a model of comparable intelligence developed by OpenAI—could reach AGI status.\n\nThis question tracks whether **OpenAI itself** makes a formal or unambiguous public declaration that **GPT‑6 or a system of equivalent capability** represents AGI.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if, before the closing date:\n\n	1\\.\t**OpenAI publicly declares** that GPT‑6 (or a model explicitly described as a successor to GPT‑5) has reached AGI,\n\n**OR**\n\n	2\\.\tOpenAI **publicly refers to a model as AGI** or states that AGI has been achieved due to the development of GPT‑6 or an equivalent model,\n\n**OR**\n\n	3\\.\tA model developed by OpenAI (whether called GPT‑6 or not) is described as:\n\n	•\tAGI,\n\n	•\ta “generally intelligent system,”\n\n	•\tor capable of performing “most economically valuable human tasks better than humans”\n\n**AND** this is acknowledged in an **official blog post, press release, interview with an executive, or investor briefing.**\n\nThe question will resolve **NO** if:\n\n	•\tNo such declaration is made before the closing date.\n\n	•\tAnother organization declares AGI, but OpenAI does not.\n\n	•\tOpenAI acknowledges advanced capabilities but explicitly denies it qualifies as AGI.\n\nAmbiguous cases (e.g. leaks, speculation, or third-party claims) will not count unless OpenAI affirms them publicly and officially.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has stated its mission is to build safe Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) that benefits all of humanity. While no universally accepted definition of AGI exists, OpenAI describes it as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.” OpenAI has also suggested it might publicly recognize the arrival of AGI when specific internal performance and safety thresholds are met.\n\nAs of mid-2025, GPT‑4 and its successors (e.g., GPT‑4.5, GPT‑4‑turbo, and o4-mini) have shown advanced capabilities in reasoning, coding, and multimodal understanding, but OpenAI has not declared any of them AGI. GPT‑5 is anticipated to release in 2025, and GPT‑6 is expected to follow sometime afterward. Speculation has increased about whether GPT‑6—or a model of comparable intelligence developed by OpenAI—could reach AGI status.\n\nThis question tracks whether **OpenAI itself** makes a formal or unambiguous public declaration that **GPT‑6 or a system of equivalent capability** represents AGI." }, { "id": 38621, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?", "short_title": "4m or more people in 'No Kings' rallies in the USA on Jun 14, 2025?", "url_title": "4m or more people in 'No Kings' rallies in the USA on Jun 14, 2025?", "slug": "4m-or-more-people-in-no-kings-rallies-in-the-usa-on-jun-14-2025", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-13T00:47:54.714782Z", "published_at": "2025-06-13T13:15:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:27.525093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-13T13:15:55.821999Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37844, "title": "[Short fuse] Will 4 million or more people participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-13T00:47:54.715377Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-13T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-16T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In response to [Trump’s planned June 14 military parade](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-military-parade-army-anniversary-event/story?id=122746696) in Washington, D.C. -- timed to coincide with his birthday, Flag Day, and the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary -- more than [1,500 'No Kings' rallies](https://www.newsweek.com/map-list-cities-protests-trump-june-14-2081284) have been organized across the United States, with some [solidarity actions planned abroad](https://www.democratsabroad.org/maxdunitz/no_kings_day_-_paris). The protests are framed as a rejection of authoritarianism, political strongmen, and the consolidation of power through patriotic spectacle. Organizers include groups like [50501](https://www.fiftyfifty.one/) and [Indivisible](https://indivisible.org). \n\nThe scale of mobilization and the political context creates real uncertainty. Law enforcement responses vary by city, and some areas are [deploying National Guard units](https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/texas-governor-abbott-national-guard-no-kings-protests-trump-20250612.html). \n\nAn estimated 3,300,000 – 4,600,000 people participated in the United States in the [2017 Women's March](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March#Participation).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the estimated total number of individuals who attend or participate in 'No Kings' rallies in the United States on June 14, 2025 (local time in each location) is equal or greater than 4 million, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "* If a range is given, then this question will resolve as **Yes** if the midpoint is equal or greater than 4 million.\n* If the consensus of credible sources is that the protests gathered \"approximately 4 million people\" or a similar phrasing, this will resolve as **Yes**. If**** it is \"almost 4 million people\" or similar, it will resolve as **No.**", "post_id": 38621, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749980244.352719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749980244.352719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8765557889639407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32641115645704466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4693931037726216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.4177035342880956, 0.44676729678567373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6422742015709613 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In response to [Trump’s planned June 14 military parade](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-military-parade-army-anniversary-event/story?id=122746696) in Washington, D.C. -- timed to coincide with his birthday, Flag Day, and the U.S. Army’s 250th anniversary -- more than [1,500 'No Kings' rallies](https://www.newsweek.com/map-list-cities-protests-trump-june-14-2081284) have been organized across the United States, with some [solidarity actions planned abroad](https://www.democratsabroad.org/maxdunitz/no_kings_day_-_paris). The protests are framed as a rejection of authoritarianism, political strongmen, and the consolidation of power through patriotic spectacle. Organizers include groups like [50501](https://www.fiftyfifty.one/) and [Indivisible](https://indivisible.org). \n\nThe scale of mobilization and the political context creates real uncertainty. Law enforcement responses vary by city, and some areas are [deploying National Guard units](https://www.inquirer.com/news/nation-world/texas-governor-abbott-national-guard-no-kings-protests-trump-20250612.html). \n\nAn estimated 3,300,000 – 4,600,000 people participated in the United States in the [2017 Women's March](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Women%27s_March#Participation)." }, { "id": 38617, "title": "Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Iran carry out an attack with 3 dead within Israel before Aug 2025?", "url_title": "Will Iran carry out an attack with 3 dead within Israel before Aug 2025?", "slug": "will-iran-carry-out-an-attack-with-3-dead-within-israel-before-aug-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:24:30.329800Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-11T09:08:04.343264Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-12T15:46:18Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T18:15:13.923156Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37839, "title": "Will Iran carry out an attack killing at least 3 people within Israel before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:24:30.330262Z", "open_time": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-14T19:13:41.504459Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-14T05:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least three individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of three fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 38617, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749873024.604567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749873024.604567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5566413935370977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.670104975249027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4331829240426629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1758133787111316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4790788822584277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.3126445676133395 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.28066101848424463, "peer_score": -0.005083674547591281, "coverage": 0.010565913005479058, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9796714538680182, "spot_peer_score": -39.757210449638976, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.28066101848424463, "peer_archived_score": -0.005083674547591281, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -39.757210449638976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said." }, { "id": 38616, "title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "url_title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "slug": "will-iran-attack-us-sites-in-iraq-before-august-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:20:09.581514Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T14:36:36.877684Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-12T15:45:10Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32772, "type": "question_series", "name": "Iran-Israel Conflict", "slug": "iran-israel-conflict", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-18T13:00:10Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-18T13:01:09.764411Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:09:59.136511Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37838, "title": "Will Iran attack US sites in Iraq before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:20:09.581994Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran was targeting or has hit the US embassy, any US military base, or other sites or buildings in Iraq primarily controlled or used by the United States.", "fine_print": "* Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n* The question will resolve as **Yes** even if the attack does not hit any US-controlled sites in Iraq, as long as credible sources report that it was targeting them.", "post_id": 38616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752503786.503904, "end_time": 1752539699.379332, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752503786.503904, "end_time": 1752539699.379332, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.07560450031029017 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.2900979577275926, 3.9959360324110866, 2.7500403257254815, 0.9046148653446914, 0.9573608256271054, 1.077492801376527, 0.09374778630027314, 0.162491984359063, 0.13100237621305458, 0.0, 0.0965084826621384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9725435499168997, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0361372874092818, 0.03950452060911081, 0.03300920416665456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3041576467001611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0220146663399734, 0.0604806447258907, 0.0, 0.2453965896845887, 0.0, 0.07965304759362157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020482295148019, 0.0, 0.01851424336049953, 0.0, 0.51715450644753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006387186707049374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.006636231172708202, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004409064241487278, 0.03010603556612766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3191073460209369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09319140450349345 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 575, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to a [CBS article from June 12, 2025](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-is-poised-to-launch-operation-on-iran-sources-say/):\n\n> U.S. officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran, multiple sources told CBS News.\n> \n> The U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate on certain American sites in neighboring Iraq. This is part of the reason the U.S. advised some Americans to leave the region earlier Wednesday. The State Department [ordered](https://x.com/travelgov/status/1932955237578391817?s=12) non-emergency government officials to exit Iraq due to \"heightened regional tensions,\" and the Pentagon has authorized military family members to voluntarily leave locations throughout the Middle East, a defense official told CBS News.\n> \n> President Trump's Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff is still planning to meet with Iran for a sixth round of talks on the country's nuclear program in the coming days, two U.S. officials said." }, { "id": 38615, "title": "Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Israel kill 50 people in Iran before August 2025?", "url_title": "Will Israel kill 50 people in Iran before August 2025?", "slug": "will-israel-kill-50-people-in-iran-before-august-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:09:19.706300Z", "published_at": "2025-06-12T11:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:15.699086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-12T15:44:24Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-13T11:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T18:15:13.923156Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T18:15:13.923156Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 37837, "title": "Will Israel carry out attacks within Iran resulting in at least 50 deaths before August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-12T14:09:19.706786Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T15:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-12T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-03T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-13T11:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-13T14:45:39.321394Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-13T11:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [the NYT as of June 12, 2025](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/politics/iran-us-iraq-diplomats-middle-east.html):\n\n> Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, according to officials in the United States and Europe, a step that could further inflame the Middle East and derail or delay efforts by the Trump administration to broker a deal to cut off Iran’s path to building a nuclear bomb.\n> \n> The concern about a potential Israeli strike and the prospect of retaliation by Iran led the United States on Wednesday to withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East.\n> \n> It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing. But the rising tensions come after months in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if after June 11, 2025 and before August 1, 2025, credible reports indicate that attacks attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders have led to the death of at least 50 individuals.", "fine_print": "The attacks must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve as **Yes**:\n\n* Occur within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Iran\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Iran.\"\n* Israel must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attacks via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry them out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute them to Israel's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n* The attacks must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 38615, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749814010.736174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749814010.736174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.9073203502891247 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47423356040990916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7200771842785656, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.9574955587185582, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 1.7653423179917582 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.8841742200135684, "peer_score": 0.21414016486667214, "coverage": 0.013845243456943435, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8287900369276461, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.8841742200135684, "peer_archived_score": 0.21414016486667214, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [the NYT as of June 12, 2025](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/11/us/politics/iran-us-iraq-diplomats-middle-east.html):\n\n> Israel appears to be preparing to launch an attack soon on Iran, according to officials in the United States and Europe, a step that could further inflame the Middle East and derail or delay efforts by the Trump administration to broker a deal to cut off Iran’s path to building a nuclear bomb.\n> \n> The concern about a potential Israeli strike and the prospect of retaliation by Iran led the United States on Wednesday to withdraw diplomats from Iraq and authorize the voluntary departure of U.S. military family members from the Middle East.\n> \n> It is unclear how extensive an attack Israel might be preparing. But the rising tensions come after months in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel has pressed President Trump to seize on what Israel sees as a moment of Iranian vulnerability to a strike." }, { "id": 38597, "title": "Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?", "short_title": "US gov veto on frontier AI deployment by 2028?", "url_title": "US gov veto on frontier AI deployment by 2028?", "slug": "us-gov-veto-on-frontier-ai-deployment-by-2028", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-09T11:08:35.819692Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T21:51:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-12T22:18:10.635802Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T21:53:00.828169Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:13:34.549577Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:13:34.549577Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37822, "title": "Will the United States government have formal veto power on the deployment of frontier AI before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-06-09T11:08:35.820126Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T21:51:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T21:51:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts the formation of a governmental \"oversight committee\" that would have significant oversight of the leading AI company.\n\n[October 2027: Government Oversight](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.[<sup>98</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-98)\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30)\n\n> The Oversight Committee formalizes that power structure. They set up a process for approving changes to the Spec, requiring sign-off from the full Oversight Committee, which now includes five to ten tech executives (from OpenBrain and its now-merged competitors) and five to ten government officials (including the President).[<sup>18</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-18) Also, the Spec now emphasizes that AIs shouldn’t assist with any unapproved attempts to change future AIs’ goals. They also set up a simple measure designed to prevent committee members from getting superintelligent assistance in plotting against other members: the logs of all model interactions are viewable by all members of the Oversight Committee, their staff, and their AI assistants.[<sup>19</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-19)\n\nFrom the start of the two endings:\n\n> Due to the immense public pressure as well as their own fears of misalignment, the Oversight Committee overseeing OpenBrain votes 6–4 to slow down and reassess.\n\n> The committee votes 6–4 to continue internal use of Agent-4.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2028, one or more of the following criteria are met:\n\n1. The United States Government is part of an oversight committee or other organisation that has veto power on the internal use or on the public release of AI models at an AI company.\n2. It is legally required to obtain individual government approval before the internal use or the public release of specific AI models, including if this is limited to certain capabilities or compute thresholds, or limited to specific companies. This criterion will not be fulfilled if models are simply prevented from being applied to certain use cases.\n\nOtherwise this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38597, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752358680.171382, "end_time": 1757809789.425447, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752358680.171382, "end_time": 1757809789.425447, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1517264478378876 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.295754374896827, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.07068444313541063, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.7871540704895399, 0.29345347581623216, 1.7648733233404625, 0.3433127692561923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.297816486400156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts the formation of a governmental \"oversight committee\" that would have significant oversight of the leading AI company.\n\n[October 2027: Government Oversight](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-10-15):\n\n> They expand their contract with OpenBrain to set up an “Oversight Committee,” a joint management committee of company and government representatives, with several government employees included alongside company leadership. The White House considers replacing the CEO with someone they trust, but backs off after intense employee protests. They announce to the public that OpenBrain was previously out of control, but that the government has established much-needed oversight.[<sup>98</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-98)\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30)\n\n> The Oversight Committee formalizes that power structure. They set up a process for approving changes to the Spec, requiring sign-off from the full Oversight Committee, which now includes five to ten tech executives (from OpenBrain and its now-merged competitors) and five to ten government officials (including the President).[<sup>18</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-18) Also, the Spec now emphasizes that AIs shouldn’t assist with any unapproved attempts to change future AIs’ goals. They also set up a simple measure designed to prevent committee members from getting superintelligent assistance in plotting against other members: the logs of all model interactions are viewable by all members of the Oversight Committee, their staff, and their AI assistants.[<sup>19</sup>](https://ai-2027.com/footnotes#footnote-slowdown-19)\n\nFrom the start of the two endings:\n\n> Due to the immense public pressure as well as their own fears of misalignment, the Oversight Committee overseeing OpenBrain votes 6–4 to slow down and reassess.\n\n> The committee votes 6–4 to continue internal use of Agent-4." }, { "id": 38596, "title": "Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "short_title": "US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "url_title": "US government control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "slug": "us-government-control-of-any-us-ai-company-or-project-before-2029", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-09T10:46:57.542085Z", "published_at": "2025-06-10T22:14:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T00:43:29.762647Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-10T22:14:55.470466Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:14:51Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:13:34.549577Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32770, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI 2027", "slug": "ai-2027", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/2027-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-10T00:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-01T22:00:29.119857Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:13:34.549577Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37821, "title": "Will the US government take control of any US AI company or project before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-06-09T10:46:57.543193Z", "open_time": "2025-06-11T22:14:51Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-15T22:14:51Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts significant US influence over the operations of the leading US AI company.\n\nOne way this could occur is through nationalisation of AI companies:\n\n[February 2027: China Steals Agent-2](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28):\n\n> Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that’s premature. A staffer drafts a memo that presents the President with his options, ranging from business-as-usual to full nationalization. The President defers to his advisors, tech industry leaders who argue that nationalization would “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” He elects to hold off on major action for now and just adds additional security requirements to the OpenBrain-DOD contract.\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30):\n\n> The President negotiates with the other US AGI companies. Their leaders unsurprisingly want to preserve their power and are much less sanguine about OpenBrain’s safety record than OpenBrain is. They agree to support, rather than resist, a form of soft nationalization of their companies, in return for various concessions including being brought into the project.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, either of the following has happened:\n\n* Τhe US government takes exclusive or dominant operation control of any US AI company, meaning that the government can direct or execute the company's strategy and day-to-day operations. This includes temporary emergency actions of any duration.\n* Any project that involves the development or deployment of a non-military AI model starts in a private US lab and is then transferred to US government control. The government must end up with exclusive operational control and decision-making authority, with the private company retaining no independent right to develop or deploy the model. Two examples of that would count are:\n * GPT-6 is developed by OpenAI, but then the rights to the model weights and its deployment pass to a US government department.\n * The team developing Claude 7 becomes part of a US government lab, along with their in-development model.\n\nIf neither of these occurs before 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* A United States AI company is defined as a company that is incorporated in the United States and develops general-purpose AI systems. It doesn't need to exclusively develop such systems (e.g., Meta would count).\n* Control obtained solely through statutory receivership, conservatorship, or any other court- or agency-appointed custodial arrangement does not count for the purposes of this question.\n* The project transfer could be commercial in nature, as long as the US government ends up with complete rights over the AI model. \n* A non-military AI model is any model that, at the time of the project transfer, is not specifically designed for military purposes, such as cyberwarefare or bioweapon design.\n* The question will resolve as **Yes** if control of the company or project has been transferred before 2029. Announcements or agreements about future nationalisation will not count.", "post_id": 38596, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752453799.083816, "end_time": 1757809692.34032, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752453799.083816, "end_time": 1757809692.34032, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.22841949863771105 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.8067086477057804, 0.5116605421070124, 0.3585785386355396, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.11798412221122517, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.19330086451826228, 0.44816710576384877, 0.033872059528572265, 0.4013068821831965, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.8377675192703894, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8466317435129431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AI2027 scenario forecasts significant US influence over the operations of the leading US AI company.\n\nOne way this could occur is through nationalisation of AI companies:\n\n[February 2027: China Steals Agent-2](https://ai-2027.com/#narrative-2027-02-28):\n\n> Someone mentions the possibility of nationalizing OpenBrain, but other cabinet officials think that’s premature. A staffer drafts a memo that presents the President with his options, ranging from business-as-usual to full nationalization. The President defers to his advisors, tech industry leaders who argue that nationalization would “kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.” He elects to hold off on major action for now and just adds additional security requirements to the OpenBrain-DOD contract.\n\n[November 2027: Tempted by Power](https://ai-2027.com/slowdown#slowdown-2027-11-30):\n\n> The President negotiates with the other US AGI companies. Their leaders unsurprisingly want to preserve their power and are much less sanguine about OpenBrain’s safety record than OpenBrain is. They agree to support, rather than resist, a form of soft nationalization of their companies, in return for various concessions including being brought into the project." }, { "id": 38579, "title": "Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "short_title": "Will Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "slug": "will-kizza-besigye-be-released-from-custody-before-september-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-08T10:25:09.739244Z", "published_at": "2025-06-13T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T18:14:19.980425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-13T13:00:32.046455Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T08:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T19:08:38.434653Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37809, "title": "Will Ugandan opposition leader Kizza Besigye be released from custody before September 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-08T10:25:09.739694Z", "open_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Africa Check](https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/meta-programme-fact-checks/no-detained-ugandan-politician-kizza-besigye-not-released): \n\n> [Dr](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2013/4/9/profile-kizza-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") Kizza Besigye, a prominent Ugandan opposition figure and four-time presidential candidate, was [abducted](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ugandan-opposition-politician-kidnapped-kenya-his-wife-says-2024-11-20/ \"(opens in a new window)\") in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on 16 November 2024 while attending a book launch. He was then [taken to](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8x3vr6zj2o \"(opens in a new window)\") Uganda, where he was [charged](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/besigye-court-martialed-for-guns-possession-kenya-switzerland-4830134 \"(opens in a new window)\") with the illegal possession of firearms and treachery, offences that carry harsh sentences, including the death penalty.\n\n> Besigye, 68, was initially [tried](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/besigye-refuses-to-take-plea-at-military-court--4889716 \"(opens in a new window)\") in a military court, but a supreme court ruling on 31 January 2025 [declared](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/reprieve-for-besigye-court-bars-military-trying-civilians-4908620 \"(opens in a new window)\") the trial of civilians in military courts unconstitutional. A few months later, the Ugandan parliament [passed a controversial bill](https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/is-besigye-now-eligible-for-military-trial-again--5050252 \"(opens in a new window)\") that would allow military courts to try civilians.\n\n> Besigye used to be a personal doctor for \\[Yoweri] Museveni, who has been in power since 1986.\n\n> Besigye has remained in detention since his arrest, with [several](https://newscentral.africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-besigye-charged-with-treason-denied-bail/ \"(opens in a new window)\") bail applications being [denied](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-kizza-besigye-denied-bail-4998930 \"(opens in a new window)\"). His continued imprisonment has [sparked](https://nilepost.co.ug/court/243692/protests-intensify-as-supporters-demand-dr-kizza-besigyes-release-in-mbarara \"(opens in a new window)\")[ protests](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/houghton-irungu/article/2001512894/lessons-from-protests-seeking-release-of-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") and calls for his release [from human rights organisations](https://www.amnestykenya.org/freebesigye/ \"(opens in a new window)\") and [political](https://nilepost.co.ug/news/242960/bobi-says-appalled-by-adamant-refusal-to-free-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") supporters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Kizza Besigye is not in Ugandan custody.", "fine_print": "If Besigye dies before being released, this question will be **annulled**. ", "post_id": 38579, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752518714.699, "end_time": 1752695820.476, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752518714.699, "end_time": 1752695820.476, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.09225248627651908 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12868056881503706, 0.013665317451453569, 1.1347221626313644, 0.0, 0.673913162358795, 3.36839304886834, 2.2132499144474167, 1.6834538313459222, 0.6229837638948847, 0.8823997077324901, 1.4900532107914972, 0.49181769122835906, 0.5632080518792898, 0.024985744145835546, 0.542659352036535, 0.2003906022220992, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.0, 0.007599064747706633, 0.4077579691334947, 0.0, 0.016702450331643054, 0.0, 0.14546164288094451, 0.00987477299920262, 0.0, 0.24311673443421447, 0.04254195519778849, 0.0, 0.0011671031195180676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28437314215321596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16708641294653828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08330211214582241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 383, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Africa Check](https://africacheck.org/fact-checks/meta-programme-fact-checks/no-detained-ugandan-politician-kizza-besigye-not-released): \n\n> [Dr](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2013/4/9/profile-kizza-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") Kizza Besigye, a prominent Ugandan opposition figure and four-time presidential candidate, was [abducted](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ugandan-opposition-politician-kidnapped-kenya-his-wife-says-2024-11-20/ \"(opens in a new window)\") in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, on 16 November 2024 while attending a book launch. He was then [taken to](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cp8x3vr6zj2o \"(opens in a new window)\") Uganda, where he was [charged](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/besigye-court-martialed-for-guns-possession-kenya-switzerland-4830134 \"(opens in a new window)\") with the illegal possession of firearms and treachery, offences that carry harsh sentences, including the death penalty.\n\n> Besigye, 68, was initially [tried](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/africa/besigye-refuses-to-take-plea-at-military-court--4889716 \"(opens in a new window)\") in a military court, but a supreme court ruling on 31 January 2025 [declared](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/reprieve-for-besigye-court-bars-military-trying-civilians-4908620 \"(opens in a new window)\") the trial of civilians in military courts unconstitutional. A few months later, the Ugandan parliament [passed a controversial bill](https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/is-besigye-now-eligible-for-military-trial-again--5050252 \"(opens in a new window)\") that would allow military courts to try civilians.\n\n> Besigye used to be a personal doctor for \\[Yoweri] Museveni, who has been in power since 1986.\n\n> Besigye has remained in detention since his arrest, with [several](https://newscentral.africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-besigye-charged-with-treason-denied-bail/ \"(opens in a new window)\") bail applications being [denied](https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/news/east-africa/ugandan-opposition-leader-kizza-besigye-denied-bail-4998930 \"(opens in a new window)\"). His continued imprisonment has [sparked](https://nilepost.co.ug/court/243692/protests-intensify-as-supporters-demand-dr-kizza-besigyes-release-in-mbarara \"(opens in a new window)\")[ protests](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/houghton-irungu/article/2001512894/lessons-from-protests-seeking-release-of-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") and calls for his release [from human rights organisations](https://www.amnestykenya.org/freebesigye/ \"(opens in a new window)\") and [political](https://nilepost.co.ug/news/242960/bobi-says-appalled-by-adamant-refusal-to-free-besigye \"(opens in a new window)\") supporters." }, { "id": 38578, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Donald Trump sue Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Donald Trump sue Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-donald-trump-sue-elon-musk-for-defamation-before-august-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-08T09:48:38.621463Z", "published_at": "2025-06-11T14:35:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-14T15:03:06.308226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-06-11T14:53:14.266390Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T08:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T14:35:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-03-27T18:33:51.087497Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 37808, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a lawsuit against Elon Musk for defamation before August 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-06-08T09:48:38.621912Z", "open_time": "2025-06-12T14:35:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-06-16T14:35:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-08-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-01T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sky News: [Wild theory Trump ‘going to sue’ Musk over Epstein claims](https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/united-states/wild-theory-trump-going-to-sue-musk-over-epstein-claims/video/46cb1d63e769f9008eaff2e6a6d78cbe)\n\n> NewsNation host Chris Cuomo has floated a bombshell theory on why Donald Trump appears to have gone silent on Elon Musk’s explosive Epstein claims. During his show on Thursday, Cuomo suggested Donald Trump may be preparing to sue Elon Musk for defamation over the shocking Epstein claim.\n\n> ...\n\n> Musk fired back on X, accusing Trump of lying and then posting an explosive allegation connecting Trump to the Jeffrey Epstein files.\n\n> \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!\", the tech billionaire posted on X.\n\n> Trump replied on Truth Social about Musk \"turning against\" him without directly responding to the Epstein allegations. Cuomo said Trump’s silence following Musk’s post alleging Trump is named in sealed Epstein files could signal legal action.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) a civil lawsuit is filed by Donald Trump (or on his behalf) for the tort of defamation arising from Elon Musk's June 5, 2025 public allegation ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/06/politics/trump-musk-epstein-files-accusation), [France 24](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250607-musk-deletes-post-claiming-trump-in-the-epstein-files)) of Donald Trump's involvement with Jeffrey Epstein. \n\nIf this does not occur before August 1, 2025, then this question resolves as **No**. 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During his show on Thursday, Cuomo suggested Donald Trump may be preparing to sue Elon Musk for defamation over the shocking Epstein claim.\n\n> ...\n\n> Musk fired back on X, accusing Trump of lying and then posting an explosive allegation connecting Trump to the Jeffrey Epstein files.\n\n> \"Time to drop the really big bomb: @realDonaldTrump is in the Epstein files. That is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day, DJT!\", the tech billionaire posted on X.\n\n> Trump replied on Truth Social about Musk \"turning against\" him without directly responding to the Epstein allegations. Cuomo said Trump’s silence following Musk’s post alleging Trump is named in sealed Epstein files could signal legal action." }, { "id": 38543, "title": "Will Donald Trump visit China before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-visit-china-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-06-06T23:33:35.355840Z", "published_at": "2025-06-15T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:16.728225Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 88, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-06-15T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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