Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=40
{ "count": 6362, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=60", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=20", "results": [ { "id": 40629, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "short_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "url_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "slug": "tehran-evacuation-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:55:59.904203Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T20:18:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:07:47.877745Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-14T20:18:51.476511Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:08:50.930914Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:08:50.930914Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40225, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:55:59.904581Z", "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian government orders an evacuation of at least 100,000 inhabitants of Tehran County before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* Any Iranian governmental authority with jurisdiction over Tehran County will qualify as the Iranian government for the purpose this question.", "post_id": 40629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further." }, { "id": 40628, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "short_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "url_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "slug": "by-january-1-2026-will-labour-fall-to-4th-in-the-polling-averages", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.334825Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:00:00.651845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.563527Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40224, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.335236Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40610,\"question_id\":40202}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Labour Party reaches #4 in the polling averages, with 3 or more other parties exceeding it [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after November 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40628, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762905086.086428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762905086.086428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3914370039161893 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40610,\"question_id\":40202}}`" }, { "id": 40610, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "short_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "url_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "slug": "by-january-1-2026-will-labour-fall-to-4th-in-the-polling-averages", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T01:04:42.396555Z", "published_at": "2025-11-07T01:13:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:47:05.806518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-07T01:15:02.083500Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40202, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T01:04:42.397083Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T01:13:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T01:13:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Labour Party reaches #4 in the polling averages, with 3 or more other parties exceeding it [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after November 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763416719.811, "end_time": 1763639654.549, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763416719.811, "end_time": 1763639654.549, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3726694554010926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9245473462071343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless." }, { "id": 40608, "title": "Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "Panda Extinct by 2100?", "url_title": "Panda Extinct by 2100?", "slug": "panda-extinct-by-2100", "author_id": 263913, "author_username": "cgiofred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T23:59:45.381806Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T18:36:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:52:59.887795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T18:36:37.512833Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T18:36:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40199, "title": "Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T23:59:45.382242Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T18:36:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T18:36:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T18:36:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda Melanoleuca) is classified as \"vulnerable\" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The Giant Panda has trouble surviving in the wild due to habitat loss and its difficulty of mating, even in captivity. However, its survival is a matter of national prestige for China. The panda's survival seems to test the impact of political will on animal conservation efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the last individual of the Ailuropoda Melanoleuca dies before January 1, 2100.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or the[ <u>IUCN Red List</u>](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/712/121745669 \"IUCN Red List\").", "post_id": 40608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763337169.228725, "end_time": 1857584143.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763337169.228725, "end_time": 1857584143.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04719986782502857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16066607683687129, 1.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda Melanoleuca) is classified as \"vulnerable\" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The Giant Panda has trouble surviving in the wild due to habitat loss and its difficulty of mating, even in captivity. However, its survival is a matter of national prestige for China. The panda's survival seems to test the impact of political will on animal conservation efforts." }, { "id": 40604, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-allow-iaea-to-inspect-its-uranium-stockpile-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.417336Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T17:00:00.457815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.701313Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40193, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.417844Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40437,\"question_id\":40007}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Iran announces an agreement to allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpiles of enriched uranium at the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40604, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762447955.483296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762447955.483296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20028007088024813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 22.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40437,\"question_id\":40007}}`" }, { "id": 40602, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "short_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "url_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "slug": "will-us-import-mexican-cattle-before-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T02:46:22.193525Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T04:28:27.822048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T18:36:55.635723Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:08:50.930914Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:08:50.930914Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40188, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T02:46:22.193932Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if U.S. imports of cattle from Mexico are permitted to resume before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "A \"phased\" or partial resumption of cattle importation is sufficient for this question to resolve as **Yes.**", "post_id": 40602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763440096.849873, "end_time": 1763636636.217, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763440096.849873, "end_time": 1763636636.217, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.28542639219627897 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.521920295021867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4898178023883872, 0.4789409092720612, 0.07369964090399271, 0.23352454917619703, 0.8554006031583444, 0.8723117464934225, 0.5685529016609817, 0.06462956491704921, 1.1279182388638547, 0.3343470039728833, 0.30082089586915806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.0, 0.5221560426127164, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26201810548811544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014340426232757577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1669059266791499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1913118686304056 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 181, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"" }, { "id": 40599, "title": "If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?", "short_title": "Orbán wins the 2026 election if he runs?", "url_title": "Orbán wins the 2026 election if he runs?", "slug": "orban-wins-the-2026-election-if-he-runs", "author_id": 113744, "author_username": "blednotik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-04T02:41:28.409337Z", "published_at": "2025-11-05T15:01:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:45:09.662386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-05T15:03:27.423608Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:01:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40181, "title": "If Viktor Orbán leads a party in the 2026 Hungarian Election, will he become Prime Minister?", "created_at": "2025-11-04T02:41:28.409737Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:01:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T15:01:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T15:01:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, previously holding the office from 1998 to 2002. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 2026, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. As for November 2025, [Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n)'s main political opponent is [Péter Magyar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_Magyar). Magyar’s political party, [Tisza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party), [now holds a steady lead over Orbán’s Fidesz in independent polls, somewhere between ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[ and ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[10 percent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Viktor Orbán is elected as Prime Minister by the Hungarian National Assembly following the 2026 Parliamentary Election. It will resolve as **No** if he leads a party in the election, but another person is elected as Prime Minister.\n\nIf Viktor Orbán does not lead a party in the 2026 election, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based upon the first person elected PM following the 2026 election. If no PM is elected by the Hungarian National Assembly before another election is held, this question will resolve based upon the first person elected following that election as long as it takes place during 2026. If this does not happen or if no election is held in 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 40599, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763336698.756611, "end_time": 1763712706.249, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763336698.756611, "end_time": 1763712706.249, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5223346811945092 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 1.502765947954929, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4597262153478199, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Viktor Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n) has been the Prime Minister of Hungary since 2010, previously holding the office from 1998 to 2002. The next [Hungarian general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election) is due on April 2026, with the winning majority being able to decide the Prime Minister. As for November 2025, [Orbán](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Orb%C3%A1n)'s main political opponent is [Péter Magyar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P%C3%A9ter_Magyar). Magyar’s political party, [Tisza](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tisza_Party), [now holds a steady lead over Orbán’s Fidesz in independent polls, somewhere between ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[ and ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[10 percent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)[.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Hungarian_parliamentary_election)" }, { "id": 40596, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "slug": "will-umaro-sissoco-embalo-be-re-elected-president-of-guinea-bissau-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:13.110183Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T10:50:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T12:21:00.244285Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:13.350575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T10:50:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40172, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:13.110589Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T10:50:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40574,\"question_id\":40147}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Umaro Sissoco Embaló wins the 2025 Guinea-Bissau [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election), according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The first round of voting is expected to be held on November 23, 2025, with a runoff taking place if no candidate receives a majority.", "post_id": 40596, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762430238.573905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762430238.573905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7825 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21749999999999997, 0.7825 ], "means": [ 0.7564649571583929 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 21.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40574,\"question_id\":40147}}`" }, { "id": 40595, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-december-15-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.592011Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T03:12:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T04:43:00.190332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.860163Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T03:12:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40171, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.592440Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T03:12:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40572,\"question_id\":40146}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before December 15, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40595, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762403828.492457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08499999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762403828.492457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08499999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07522086854613272 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 10.0, 10.0, 13.0, 6.0, 25.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40572,\"question_id\":40146}}`" }, { "id": 40594, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-burbank-california-in-november-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.982718Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:26:00.479299Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:12.380408Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40170, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.983198Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40571,\"question_id\":40145}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Hollywood Burbank Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40594, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762266330.628001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762266330.628001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5415030262215726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40571,\"question_id\":40145}}`" }, { "id": 40593, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-yuma-arizona-in-november-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.583574Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T14:26:00.523442Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.795293Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40169, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.583973Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T12:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40570,\"question_id\":40144}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Yuma International Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40593, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762265948.609069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762265948.609069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3089221031863984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40570,\"question_id\":40144}}`" }, { "id": 40592, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-november-21-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.119302Z", "published_at": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T07:52:08.531012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.385740Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:59:39.170047Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40168, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-03T16:55:11.119810Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40556,\"question_id\":40131}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 29, 2025 and before November 21, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40592, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762253865.138086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.538 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762253865.138086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.538 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5959206912984413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 24.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40556,\"question_id\":40131}}`" }, { "id": 40577, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "short_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "url_title": "US military in Nigeria before 2026", "slug": "us-military-in-nigeria-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:27:28.737901Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:59:12.252621Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:27.866873Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 62, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:08:50.930914Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T05:08:50.930914Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40150, "title": "Will the United States conduct a military attack within Nigeria before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:27:28.738254Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-14T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack within Nigeria's internationally recognised territory.", "fine_print": "Cyberattacks or other actions without immediate physical impact do not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.", "post_id": 40577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763438341.909007, "end_time": 1763451932.704, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763438341.909007, "end_time": 1763451932.704, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.1390014996292039 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3546180339320061, 1.8703373530836664, 0.6108402469386052, 0.5513358377092531, 2.490214131141237, 0.25273146309491945, 1.448473082555045, 1.884936575757716, 0.002444497044844799, 1.9496314994182917, 0.3815029447976801, 0.0, 0.3046693563012396, 0.0, 0.3134599257667836, 0.007317111975919482, 0.0, 0.011922333154512703, 0.0, 0.06418622260947618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01591623825581385, 0.0017789123690750252, 0.037861112940804624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7190903954441952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10344231989096485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008686660616741733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6124550226882376 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For overs 15 years, the Sahel region has been a hot bed for [extremism, terrorism and violence](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violent-extremism-sahel?utm_source=chatgpt.com) against many populations. Since 2011 [recurrent violence](https://www.globalr2p.org/countries/nigeria/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) between herding and farming communities, rooted in competition over scarce resources, has escalated in central and north-west Nigeria. \n\nThree different fronts are active. In the northeast, islamist groups like [Boko Haram and ISWAP](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/islamist-fighters-attack-two-nigerian-military-bases-security-sources-say-2025-03-26) are in direct conflict with the government. In the Middle Belt, conflict over farmlands are raging, accentuated by the religious groups divide. In the northwest, bandit groups are active, sometimes cooperating with jihadists. In some of these conflicts, especially those in the Middle Belt, the victims have been disproportionately Christians.\n\nIn early November, US President Donald Trump began floating an attack within Nigeria, saying he has [ordered the DoD to ‘prepare for possible action’ in Nigeria](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/01/politics/trump-pentagon-nigeria-action) while accusing the nation of not doing enough to stop violence against Christians.\n\nOn [Truth Social](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115476385101120405) he threatened the Nigerian Government, stating that \"*If the Nigerian Government* *continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, “guns-a-blazing,” to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities.*\"" }, { "id": 40576, "title": "Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?", "short_title": "US attacks Nigeria before 2027", "url_title": "US attacks Nigeria before 2027", "slug": "us-attacks-nigeria-before-2027", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:20:36.038394Z", "published_at": "2025-11-03T09:32:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T15:37:08.146309Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T09:32:55.727157Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:32:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40149, "title": "Will the United States attack Nigeria before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-11-02T13:20:36.038833Z", "open_time": "2025-11-04T09:32:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-08T09:32:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-08T09:32:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-04T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early November 2025, according to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), \n\n> In a message posted to Truth Social on Saturday, President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum, stating the U.S. military may go into Nigeria \"guns-a-blazing\" to attack Islamic terrorists for the \"killing of Christians\" if the West African nation does not deal with them.\n\n> Trump has highlighted concerns about the safety of Christians in Nigeria, which has long faced suggestions by some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. During his first administration, Trump placed Nigeria on the U.S. religious freedom watchlist, but former President Joe Biden lifted that designation during his administration.\n\n> Trump has posted on Truth Social multiple times about Nigeria, increasing the intensity of his comments and actions he intends to take against Nigeria, starting with the designation as a \"country of particular concern\" and escalating to threats against aid and potential military action.\n\n> \"If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, 'guns-a-blazing,' to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,\" Trump wrote. \"I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!\"\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-christians-face-existential-threat-nigeria-adds-country-watch-list-2025-10-31/) the Nigerian President and Foreign Ministry have responded to the threats, as it is also reported that the US President has been pressured from some religious groups to continue to raise concerns in the West African country.\n\nBut will all the political rhetoric amount to any US physical military attack on Nigeria's territory over the next 14 months?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the United States carries out a military attack against Nigeria's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Nigeria's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Nigerian territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Nigeria's territory and neither the US nor Nigeria claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Nigeria occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 40576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763048217.96541, "end_time": 1764841648.805, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763048217.96541, "end_time": 1764841648.805, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19923384701387162 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.27129778345399286, 0.0, 1.0645648491280946, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2921752393703385, 0.0, 0.8531036150923881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7515367129268021, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early November 2025, according to [Newsweek](https://www.newsweek.com/trump-issues-military-ultimatum-nigeria-killing-christians-10976902), \n\n> In a message posted to Truth Social on Saturday, President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum, stating the U.S. military may go into Nigeria \"guns-a-blazing\" to attack Islamic terrorists for the \"killing of Christians\" if the West African nation does not deal with them.\n\n> Trump has highlighted concerns about the safety of Christians in Nigeria, which has long faced suggestions by some U.S. evangelical Christian groups and politicians that a deliberate campaign of extermination is taking place against Nigeria’s Christian population. During his first administration, Trump placed Nigeria on the U.S. religious freedom watchlist, but former President Joe Biden lifted that designation during his administration.\n\n> Trump has posted on Truth Social multiple times about Nigeria, increasing the intensity of his comments and actions he intends to take against Nigeria, starting with the designation as a \"country of particular concern\" and escalating to threats against aid and potential military action.\n\n> \"If the Nigerian Government continues to allow the killing of Christians, the U.S.A. will immediately stop all aid and assistance to Nigeria, and may very well go into that now disgraced country, 'guns-a-blazing,' to completely wipe out the Islamic Terrorists who are committing these horrible atrocities,\" Trump wrote. \"I am hereby instructing our Department of War to prepare for possible action. If we attack, it will be fast, vicious, and sweet, just like the terrorist thugs attack our CHERISHED Christians! WARNING: THE NIGERIAN GOVERNMENT BETTER MOVE FAST!\"\n\nAccording to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-christians-face-existential-threat-nigeria-adds-country-watch-list-2025-10-31/) the Nigerian President and Foreign Ministry have responded to the threats, as it is also reported that the US President has been pressured from some religious groups to continue to raise concerns in the West African country.\n\nBut will all the political rhetoric amount to any US physical military attack on Nigeria's territory over the next 14 months?" }, { "id": 40574, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "short_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "url_title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "slug": "will-umaro-sissoco-embalo-be-re-elected-president-of-guinea-bissau-in-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T10:56:35.805949Z", "published_at": "2025-11-01T11:20:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T15:21:29.371354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T11:21:00.565412Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40147, "title": "Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló be re-elected president of Guinea-Bissau in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T10:56:35.806327Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T12:20:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Umaro Sissoco Embaló wins the 2025 Guinea-Bissau [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Guinea-Bissau_general_election), according to official results or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The first round of voting is expected to be held on November 23, 2025, with a runoff taking place if no candidate receives a majority.", "post_id": 40574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763392879.222036, "end_time": 1763591644.927, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763392879.222036, "end_time": 1763591644.927, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8538702866927065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 1.8217972504684123, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 149, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Guinea-Bissau is a small country in west Africa, population 2 million and 14k square miles or 36k square kilometers (roughly the size of Belgium or the US state of Maryland). In 2019 Umaro Sissoco Embaló was newly [elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Guinea-Bissau_presidential_election) president of the country with 53.55% of the vote compared with the incumbent's 46.45%. \n\nGuinea-Bissau has gone through a long and [complex](https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/political-science/articles/10.3389/fpos.2023.1078771/full) democratization process in the decades following its independence from Portugal in 1973. Embaló is [widely](https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/GNB) [considered](https://theconversation.com/guinea-bissaus-political-crisis-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-authoritarianism-252317) an autocrat; the elections were originally scheduled for November 2024 but were postponed. Freedom House [rates](https://freedomhouse.org/country/guinea-bissau) Guinea-Bissau 41/100 in its Global Freedom index, similar in score to Mozambique or Nicaragua." }, { "id": 40572, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before December 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-december-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T03:41:40.518501Z", "published_at": "2025-11-01T03:42:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T12:47:24.015436Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T03:42:35.584027Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40146, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before December 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T03:41:40.518929Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T04:42:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-15T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before December 15, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763383633.623735, "end_time": 1763988433.209, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.127 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763383633.623735, "end_time": 1763988433.209, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.127 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.873, 0.127 ], "means": [ 0.14244024019574925 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company." }, { "id": 40571, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Burbank, California in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-burbank-california-in-november-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:22:08.755723Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T01:18:57.505882Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T02:25:01.180307Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T05:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-13T05:20:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40145, "title": "Will Burbank, California receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:22:08.756109Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-13T05:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-15T01:15:50.724111Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T05:20:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Hollywood Burbank Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762920682.781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762920682.781, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.8049544776864608 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 1.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.8431287456062874 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.21674498316521, "peer_score": 5.6540822036887155, "coverage": 0.39448689339375415, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9871587296500033, "spot_peer_score": 7.699922114051661, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 35.21674498316521, "peer_archived_score": 5.6540822036887155, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.699922114051661, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 137, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Burbank, California is on a streak of 17 days with no rain, following a record storm and [flooding](https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/southern-california-los-angeles-evacuations-severe-storms-flooding-burn-scars) of October 14, 2025. In June, July and August 2025, the city received no rain. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=BUR\\&network=CA_ASOS). \n\nSouthern California remains under drought, with Burbank (following the mid-October rains) considered under moderate drought ([D1](https://www.drought.gov/states/california)). " }, { "id": 40570, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "short_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "url_title": "Will it rain in Yuma, Arizona in November 2025?", "slug": "will-it-rain-in-yuma-arizona-in-november-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:06:08.352932Z", "published_at": "2025-10-24T13:26:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T20:32:15.422477Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-01T02:06:47.770970Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T19:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-15T19:57:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40144, "title": "Will Yuma, Arizona receive any rain in November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-01T02:06:08.353306Z", "open_time": "2025-11-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-15T19:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-16T20:31:16.394259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-15T19:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [data calendar](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS) for the National Weather Service's Yuma International Airport weather station, there is any material precipitation observed for any day in November 2025. \n\nFor purposes of this question, days with a recording of 0.00 inches, Trace, and M (missing) will all be considered to have had no material precipitation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763106970.198667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763106970.198667, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.708621698450878 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.759287950627407, "peer_score": 3.723217370942432, "coverage": 0.48279680277895376, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839818541882441, "spot_peer_score": -38.20494582661148, "spot_baseline_score": -55.63933485243852, "baseline_archived_score": -7.759287950627407, "peer_archived_score": 3.723217370942432, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -38.20494582661148, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -55.63933485243852 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question Yuma, Arizona is on a streak of 12 days with no rain. In November 2024 it received no rain at all, but in November 2023 it did. Please see history [here](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/monthlysum.php?station=NYL\\&network=AZ_ASOS). " }, { "id": 40564, "title": "Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?", "short_title": "Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth or moon?", "url_title": "Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth or moon?", "slug": "will-asteroid-2024-yr4-hit-earth-or-moon", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T22:06:06.227013Z", "published_at": "2025-11-03T01:44:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:39:54.787629Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-03T01:48:13.668915Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-05T01:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:20:51.726926Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T02:20:51.726926Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40135, "title": "Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth or the Moon before 2033?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T22:06:06.227387Z", "open_time": "2025-11-05T01:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-09T01:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-09T01:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2033-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth/Moon?](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/Will-the-asteroid-YR-hit-the-moon)\n\nWhen 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, early orbit calculations included a small but non-zero chance of an Earth impact in December 2032, prompting concern and increased observation. However, by mid-2025, additional tracking—especially with the James Webb Space Telescope—helped astronomers refine its trajectory. NASA now states that 2024 YR4 [<u>“poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/)[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nMoreover, no credible model currently supports a collision prior to 2032. As to the Moon, however, the [primary models estimate a \\~4 percent chance](https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Will_asteroid_2024_YR4_hit_the_Moon) of an impact occurring on December 22, 2032. The probabilities will continue to be refined as the asteroid returns into view and new measurements are made.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Jan. 1, 2033, the asteroid 2024 YR4 is confirmed to have collided with Earth or the Moon, according to official scientific institutions (e.g., NASA, ESA, JAXA, U.S. Geological Survey) or credible scientific/astronomical media reporting on such an event.", "fine_print": "“Hit” means a direct physical impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 (not fragments, dust trails, or other debris) with the Earth’s surface or atmosphere or the Moon.", "post_id": 40564, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763336384.00737, "end_time": 1793878379.649, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763336384.00737, "end_time": 1793878379.649, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.030977998883793042 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.5146781353985408, 1.3809965493283725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the Asteroid 2024 YR4 Hit the Earth/Moon?](https://www.improvethenews.org/controversy/Will-the-asteroid-YR-hit-the-moon)\n\nWhen 2024 YR4 was first discovered in December 2024, early orbit calculations included a small but non-zero chance of an Earth impact in December 2032, prompting concern and increased observation. However, by mid-2025, additional tracking—especially with the James Webb Space Telescope—helped astronomers refine its trajectory. NASA now states that 2024 YR4 [<u>“poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.”</u>](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/)[ ](https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nMoreover, no credible model currently supports a collision prior to 2032. As to the Moon, however, the [primary models estimate a \\~4 percent chance](https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Will_asteroid_2024_YR4_hit_the_Moon) of an impact occurring on December 22, 2032. The probabilities will continue to be refined as the asteroid returns into view and new measurements are made." }, { "id": 40556, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-november-21-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T14:25:06.689014Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T09:15:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T11:56:24.141627Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-30T14:25:25.591844Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-18T03:16:52.422483Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40131, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before November 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T14:25:06.689470Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-21T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-13T11:56:05.271022Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T03:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 29, 2025 and before November 21, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763002779.615492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763002779.615492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.975 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.865579932015535 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07368891131100444, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 1.352952162715849, 1.1952070725955561, 4.55409700188474 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.750259306508376, "peer_score": 6.43895022379356, "coverage": 0.6187561467418666, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.986574951011704, "spot_peer_score": 8.8131004361855, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 30.750259306508376, "peer_archived_score": 6.43895022379356, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.8131004361855, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 287, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, according to the General Service Administration's[ payroll calendar](https://www.gsa.gov/buy-through-us/purchasing-programs/shared-services/payroll-shared-services/payroll-calendars/2025-payroll-calendar), most government workers missed a scheduled EFT payment on October 24, 2025. The payment has been deferred until after the end of the US federal government shutdown. The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" \n\nThe next paycheck missed (if the government is still shut down) will be November 7, 2025, and if the government is still shut down on November 21, 2025, then workers will miss that third paycheck. \n\nAccording to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |" } ] }
