Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6560, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 40976, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House until January 3, 2027?", "short_title": "Will Johnson remain Speaker until end of 119th Congress?", "url_title": "Will Johnson remain Speaker until end of 119th Congress?", "slug": "will-johnson-remain-speaker-until-end-of-119th-congress", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T17:59:37.066075Z", "published_at": "2025-12-13T18:47:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-16T22:20:05.211367Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-13T18:48:43.055328Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-02T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-04T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-14T18:47:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40683, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker of the House until January 3, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T17:59:37.066431Z", "open_time": "2025-12-14T18:47:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-18T18:47:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-18T18:47:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-04T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-02T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-02T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 119th United States Congress convened on January 3, 2025, and [re-elected the 56th Speaker of the House Republican Mike Johnson](https://www.speaker.gov/2025/01/04/house-adopts-rules-for-the-119th-congress/). Republicans began with a slim majority 219 to 215 (with 1 vacant).\n\nDespite being the Speaker of the House since October 25, 2023, Johnson has recently come under pressure from his own party. As [reported by Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/04/mike-johnson-ndaa-pentagon-bill-00677847) on December 4, 2025, House Republicans are \"questioning the speaker’s hold on his tenuous House majority. Next week, he has to prove he’s capable of governing.\"\n\n> The annual Pentagon policy bill is due on the floor just in time to test Johnson’s ability to command and cajole his conference with must-pass legislation at stake. Already GOP leaders have had to [delay release of bill text](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/03/ndaa-delays-defense-bill-00676098) as they deal with a host of 11th-hour intraparty flare-ups that show just how hard it will be for the speaker to lead ahead of next year’s midterm elections. \n\n> But the pending fights over the Pentagon bill — or the National Defense Authorization Act, as it is formally known — serve as a mini-preview for the turmoil Johnson is likely to face for the remainder of the 119th Congress as he tries to tackle health care, government funding and other flashpoints.\n\nAs [Axios also reports](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/04/mike-johnson-stefanik-mace-internal-revolt), \"the pattern \\[of internal revolt] mirrors the internal dynamics that destabilized former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Johnson isn't currently facing a motion to vacate, but the escalating public criticism is a troubling sign for the two-term speaker.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the US House of Representatives from December 13, 2025, continuously until the end of the 119th Congress, on January 3, 2027. If he is not Speaker of the House at any point before the end of the 119th Congress, this question will resolve as **No**. ", "fine_print": "If Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from the House or the speakership but the effective date is after January 3, 2027, the question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as Johnson continuously remains Speaker until the end of the 119th Congress.", "short_title": "Will Johnson remain Speaker until end of 119th Congress?", "post_id": 40976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765923594.5849, "end_time": 1768417382.955, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765923594.5849, "end_time": 1768417382.955, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.47802169227493563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.41674342759689076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.16753160313064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 119th United States Congress convened on January 3, 2025, and [re-elected the 56th Speaker of the House Republican Mike Johnson](https://www.speaker.gov/2025/01/04/house-adopts-rules-for-the-119th-congress/). Republicans began with a slim majority 219 to 215 (with 1 vacant).\n\nDespite being the Speaker of the House since October 25, 2023, Johnson has recently come under pressure from his own party. As [reported by Politico](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/04/mike-johnson-ndaa-pentagon-bill-00677847) on December 4, 2025, House Republicans are \"questioning the speaker’s hold on his tenuous House majority. Next week, he has to prove he’s capable of governing.\"\n\n> The annual Pentagon policy bill is due on the floor just in time to test Johnson’s ability to command and cajole his conference with must-pass legislation at stake. Already GOP leaders have had to [delay release of bill text](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/03/ndaa-delays-defense-bill-00676098) as they deal with a host of 11th-hour intraparty flare-ups that show just how hard it will be for the speaker to lead ahead of next year’s midterm elections. \n\n> But the pending fights over the Pentagon bill — or the National Defense Authorization Act, as it is formally known — serve as a mini-preview for the turmoil Johnson is likely to face for the remainder of the 119th Congress as he tries to tackle health care, government funding and other flashpoints.\n\nAs [Axios also reports](https://www.axios.com/2025/12/04/mike-johnson-stefanik-mace-internal-revolt), \"the pattern \\[of internal revolt] mirrors the internal dynamics that destabilized former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Johnson isn't currently facing a motion to vacate, but the escalating public criticism is a troubling sign for the two-term speaker.\"" }, { "id": 40975, "title": "Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]", "short_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "url_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "slug": "battery-recycling-market-up-to-2030", "author_id": 139400, "author_username": "sandman", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T17:52:14.693228Z", "published_at": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-20T00:31:16.632904Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź’Ľ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32881, "type": "tournament", "name": "Super Secret Private Tournament", "slug": "question-links-tournament", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:50:50.483672Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T00:33:29.536657Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32881, "type": "tournament", "name": "Super Secret Private Tournament", "slug": "question-links-tournament", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:50:50.483672Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T00:33:29.536657Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40682, "title": "Will the Lithium-ion battery recycling market surpass $20 billion (current USD) before 2031? [QL]", "created_at": "2025-12-05T17:52:14.693656Z", "open_time": "2023-01-30T06:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-02-01T06:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-02-01T06:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lithium-ion battery recycling is important for a green transition as it helps to conserve resources and reduce the environmental impact of battery production. With the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, there is a growing need for lithium-ion batteries. However, the supply of lithium and other materials used in these batteries is limited, and mining these materials can have negative environmental consequences. By recycling used batteries, it is possible to recover valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt, reducing the need for mining and conserving resources.\n\nIn recent years, there has been a significant upswing in companies offering such recycling services. For example, [Redwood Materials](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/), cofounded by a previous CTO at Tesla, founded in 2017, currently provides materials for batteries for about [60,000 new electric vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials,_Inc.) per year, and aims to “produce enough anode and cathode for one million electric vehicles annually” by 2025. Importantly, the company is [not yet profitable](https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/), which presumably also applies to many of its competitors.\n\nThere are a variety of already existing forecasts on the trajectory of this market. According [Fortune Business Insights report](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2529169/0/en/Lithium-ion-Battery-Recycling-Market-Size-Worth-USD-6-55-Billion-Globally-by-2028-at-18-5-CAGR.html#:~:text=06%2C%202022%20\\(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE\\),forecast%20period%20from%202021%2D2028.), the market size is projected to be at around \\$6.55 billion by 2028, while [other estimates](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-153488928.html#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20size%20of,the%20forecast%20period%202021%2D2026.) put the total lithium-ion battery recycling market cap at \\$22.8 billion by 2030 or even \\$38.21 billion by 2030 according to [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-A11683).\n\nAnticipating the size of this market is important to estimate the future impact that recycling can have on the decarbonisation of the world economy, as lithium-ion batteries are considered a key component in this transition and a thriving recycling business may mean reduced strain on supply.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any reputable firm (including but not limited to the three cited above) estimates the lithium-ion battery recycling market to be $20 billion or more for any year up to (and including) 2030. It resolves as **No** otherwise. Resolution will be determined according to information publicly available on January 1, 2032.", "fine_print": "* If one credible source results in a resolution of **Yes** later estimates or revisions by that source or other sources will be irrelevant for the purposes of this question.\n* The dollar amount for question resolution is not inflation adjusted at any point.", "short_title": "Battery recycling market up to 2030", "post_id": 40975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766190666.014839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766190666.014839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.9 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium-ion battery recycling is important for a green transition as it helps to conserve resources and reduce the environmental impact of battery production. With the increasing demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy storage, there is a growing need for lithium-ion batteries. However, the supply of lithium and other materials used in these batteries is limited, and mining these materials can have negative environmental consequences. By recycling used batteries, it is possible to recover valuable materials such as lithium and cobalt, reducing the need for mining and conserving resources.\n\nIn recent years, there has been a significant upswing in companies offering such recycling services. For example, [Redwood Materials](https://www.redwoodmaterials.com/), cofounded by a previous CTO at Tesla, founded in 2017, currently provides materials for batteries for about [60,000 new electric vehicles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redwood_Materials,_Inc.) per year, and aims to “produce enough anode and cathode for one million electric vehicles annually” by 2025. Importantly, the company is [not yet profitable](https://insideevs.com/news/564366/jb-straubel-battery-recycling-profitability/), which presumably also applies to many of its competitors.\n\nThere are a variety of already existing forecasts on the trajectory of this market. According [Fortune Business Insights report](https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-release/2022/10/06/2529169/0/en/Lithium-ion-Battery-Recycling-Market-Size-Worth-USD-6-55-Billion-Globally-by-2028-at-18-5-CAGR.html#:~:text=06%2C%202022%20\\(GLOBE%20NEWSWIRE\\),forecast%20period%20from%202021%2D2028.), the market size is projected to be at around \\$6.55 billion by 2028, while [other estimates](https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/Market-Reports/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-153488928.html#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20size%20of,the%20forecast%20period%202021%2D2026.) put the total lithium-ion battery recycling market cap at \\$22.8 billion by 2030 or even \\$38.21 billion by 2030 according to [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/lithium-ion-battery-recycling-market-A11683).\n\nAnticipating the size of this market is important to estimate the future impact that recycling can have on the decarbonisation of the world economy, as lithium-ion batteries are considered a key component in this transition and a thriving recycling business may mean reduced strain on supply." }, { "id": 40972, "title": "Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?", "short_title": "Will NVDA close below $100 in 2026?", "url_title": "Will NVDA close below $100 in 2026?", "slug": "will-nvda-close-below-100-in-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T15:48:46.923840Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-21T17:33:29.031599Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:19:52.767667Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź’Ľ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40679, "title": "Will Nvidia's stock price close below $100 on any day in 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T15:48:46.924212Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nvidia [<u>dominates</u>](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the AI chip market, with 70-95% market share depending on how it is measured. Microsoft [<u>spends</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html) a full 47% of its capital expenditures on Nvidia chips, Amazon 11%, Meta 25%, Alphabet 15% and Tesla 13%. Many big tech companies also rent data centers from CoreWeave, which itself spends billions on Nvidia chips.\n\nOn December 5, 2025, Nvidia's stock closed at \\$182.41, up 36% year-to-date. A close below \\$100 a share would be a drop of 45%.\n\nAt the time of this question, Nvidia’s business has been firing on all cylinders, [<u>selling</u>](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2025.html) every one of its flagship [<u>Blackwell</u>](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/technologies/blackwell-architecture/) chips it can make, with demand projected by analysts to exceed supply well into fiscal year 2026.\n\nHowever, new business challenges have presented themselves. Nvidia faces massive uncertainty in China, with the US in November 2025 [<u>announcing</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-faces-u-ban-scaled-124438728.html) restrictions on sales of scaled-down Nvidia chips to the country, while China itself has [<u>banned</u>](https://convergence-now.com/embedded-tech/china-domestic-ai-chips-ban-data-centres/) Nvidia chips from new data centers. Google is also [<u>ramping up</u>](https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/06/googles_ironwood_tpus_ai/) its Ironwood TPU chips, which [<u>compete</u>](https://xpu.pub/2025/04/16/google-ironwood/) favorably on many metrics with Blackwell.\n\nTwenty-six years of Nvidia's stock price history is available from [MacroTrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/stock-price-history).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Nvidia stock's close price is less than \\$100.00 for any regular trading day during 2026, according to [<u>Yahoo Finance</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/).\n\nIf Yahoo Finance is unavailable or found to be inaccurate this question may use alternative [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will adjust to account for the split. Typically this is done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "short_title": "Will NVDA close below $100 in 2026?", "post_id": 40972, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nvidia [<u>dominates</u>](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/02/nvidia-dominates-the-ai-chip-market-but-theres-rising-competition-.html) the AI chip market, with 70-95% market share depending on how it is measured. Microsoft [<u>spends</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-techs-spending-drove-nvidias-rise-154027146.html) a full 47% of its capital expenditures on Nvidia chips, Amazon 11%, Meta 25%, Alphabet 15% and Tesla 13%. Many big tech companies also rent data centers from CoreWeave, which itself spends billions on Nvidia chips.\n\nOn December 5, 2025, Nvidia's stock closed at \\$182.41, up 36% year-to-date. A close below \\$100 a share would be a drop of 45%.\n\nAt the time of this question, Nvidia’s business has been firing on all cylinders, [<u>selling</u>](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/nvidia-nvda-earnings-report-q3-2025.html) every one of its flagship [<u>Blackwell</u>](https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/data-center/technologies/blackwell-architecture/) chips it can make, with demand projected by analysts to exceed supply well into fiscal year 2026.\n\nHowever, new business challenges have presented themselves. Nvidia faces massive uncertainty in China, with the US in November 2025 [<u>announcing</u>](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-faces-u-ban-scaled-124438728.html) restrictions on sales of scaled-down Nvidia chips to the country, while China itself has [<u>banned</u>](https://convergence-now.com/embedded-tech/china-domestic-ai-chips-ban-data-centres/) Nvidia chips from new data centers. Google is also [<u>ramping up</u>](https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/06/googles_ironwood_tpus_ai/) its Ironwood TPU chips, which [<u>compete</u>](https://xpu.pub/2025/04/16/google-ironwood/) favorably on many metrics with Blackwell.\n\nTwenty-six years of Nvidia's stock price history is available from [MacroTrends](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/stock-price-history)." }, { "id": 40969, "title": "Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "short_title": "AI song in Top 20 before 2027?", "url_title": "AI song in Top 20 before 2027?", "slug": "ai-song-in-top-20-before-2027", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T08:45:10.854533Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:49Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T04:52:42.000799Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:19:16.912099Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40677, "title": "Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T08:45:10.854895Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-26T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-26T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During 2025, AI created songs have began to place on various [Billboard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_\\(magazine\\)) charts, with at least six songs landing in the charts within the year. As of late 2025, this trend is accelerating leading to speculation an AI created song may soon chart on the Billboard Hot 100.\n\n[How Many AI Artists Have Debuted on Billboard’s Charts?:](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ai-artists-on-billboard-charts/childpets-galore/)\n\n> Notably, at least one AI artist has debuted in each of the past five chart weeks, a streak suggesting this trend is quickly accelerating.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a song largely created by AI lists in the top 20 on any weekly [Billboard Hot 100](https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) chart released before January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "* According to the current schedule, the chart for the week of January 2, 2027 will be released on December 29, 2026 and therefore is included in this question. If the release schedule changes, the final week whose results are fully encompassed within 2026 will be the final one included. \n* This question will use credible sources or artist credits to determine whether a song is largely created by AI.\n* For the purpose of this question, a song will be considered as largely created by AI if either of the following is true:\n * The vocal melody is composed and performed by an AI. This does not include voice conversion, in which an AI changes the style/voice of an existing recording.\n * The lead melodic instrument as well as the majority of the instruments are composed and generated by an AI. Minor edits or AI-generated accompaniment alone will not qualify.\n* Whether a song's lyrics are written by a human or AI will have no impact on this question.\n* If AI songs are explicitly prohibited from appearing in the Hot 100 list, this question will be **annulled.**", "short_title": "AI song in Top 20 before 2027?", "post_id": 40969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During 2025, AI created songs have began to place on various [Billboard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billboard_\\(magazine\\)) charts, with at least six songs landing in the charts within the year. As of late 2025, this trend is accelerating leading to speculation an AI created song may soon chart on the Billboard Hot 100.\n\n[How Many AI Artists Have Debuted on Billboard’s Charts?:](https://www.billboard.com/lists/ai-artists-on-billboard-charts/childpets-galore/)\n\n> Notably, at least one AI artist has debuted in each of the past five chart weeks, a streak suggesting this trend is quickly accelerating." }, { "id": 40968, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela during 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela in 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T08:40:29.640971Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T00:18:52.269433Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:19:03.175585Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40676, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T08:40:29.641381Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo) and ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast.\n\nTensions further escalated following the United States' [attack on boats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_military_strikes_on_alleged_drug_traffickers) off the coast of Venezuela, and subsequent unsupported claims of those boats harboring drug traffickers. Venezuela has in turn mobilized over [4 million militia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) across the country while publicly responding to a potential invasion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Venezuela's territory refers to its land and internal waters. External waters such as territorial waters will not count.\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** even if the US did not initiate the conflict.", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in 2026?", "post_id": 40968, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo) and ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast.\n\nTensions further escalated following the United States' [attack on boats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_military_strikes_on_alleged_drug_traffickers) off the coast of Venezuela, and subsequent unsupported claims of those boats harboring drug traffickers. Venezuela has in turn mobilized over [4 million militia](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) across the country while publicly responding to a potential invasion." }, { "id": 40967, "title": "Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?", "short_title": "Will Starmer leave office in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Starmer leave office in 2026?", "slug": "will-starmer-leave-office-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T08:22:01.945067Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-21T14:32:45.840251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:18:48.988241Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40675, "title": "Will Keir Starmer cease to be Prime Minister of the UK during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T08:22:01.945451Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Keir Starmer]() is the Prime Minister of United Kingdom and leader of the Labour Party. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Starmer has faced immense backlash and unpopularity from across British politics, with mass public dissatisfaction on nearly every issue. As of December 2025, Starmer faces an immense -50 [approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), with some polls reaching as low as -60.\n\nFacing pressure from both the right wing Reform UK and the left wing Green Party, Labour's polling numbers have steadily declined from the already historically low 33.7% election victory, [to an average of 20%](https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi), with some polls placing the party as low as 14%.\n\nDue to Starmer's immense unpopularity, speculation has emerged of a leadership challenge, with contenders such as [Andy Burnham](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgq4zd0lx12t) and [Wes Streeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v124znrgmo) emerging as contenders. Media has since repeatedly speculated on Starmer's prospects as leader, focusing on the possibility for him to be ousted following a potentially disastrous performance in the [2026 Local Elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Starmer leave office in 2026?", "post_id": 40967, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Keir Starmer]() is the Prime Minister of United Kingdom and leader of the Labour Party. Following the [2024 general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Starmer has faced immense backlash and unpopularity from across British politics, with mass public dissatisfaction on nearly every issue. As of December 2025, Starmer faces an immense -50 [approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election), with some polls reaching as low as -60.\n\nFacing pressure from both the right wing Reform UK and the left wing Green Party, Labour's polling numbers have steadily declined from the already historically low 33.7% election victory, [to an average of 20%](https://electionmaps.uk/polling/vi), with some polls placing the party as low as 14%.\n\nDue to Starmer's immense unpopularity, speculation has emerged of a leadership challenge, with contenders such as [Andy Burnham](https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cgq4zd0lx12t) and [Wes Streeting](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9v124znrgmo) emerging as contenders. Media has since repeatedly speculated on Starmer's prospects as leader, focusing on the possibility for him to be ousted following a potentially disastrous performance in the [2026 Local Elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_Kingdom_local_elections)." }, { "id": 40966, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?", "short_title": "Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?", "slug": "will-netanyahu-leave-office-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T07:49:15.973462Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T00:17:58.207461Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:18:31.974040Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40674, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T07:49:15.973811Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2025, having held the office from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021 and from 2022 to 2025. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having led the government for a total of over 18 years.\n\nDuring Netanyahu's leadership, he has experienced substantial challenges including charges of [bribery and fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu), [arrest warrants from the ICC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) due to Israel's actions in Gaza, and mixed support from the Israeli public.\n\nWith an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election) required before October 27, 2026, Netanyahu's government faces differing opinion polls, though some pollsters have been implicated in breach of trust and are known to be affiliated with Netanyahu.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel.\n\nThis includes Netanyahu getting suspended, an acting Prime Minister being appointed, or any other temporary circumstance that removes his power, if it lasts for at least 14 consecutive days entirely within 2026.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Netanyahu leave office in 2026?", "post_id": 40966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the Prime Minister of Israel as of December 2025, having held the office from 1996 to 1999, from 2009 to 2021 and from 2022 to 2025. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having led the government for a total of over 18 years.\n\nDuring Netanyahu's leadership, he has experienced substantial challenges including charges of [bribery and fraud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trial_of_Benjamin_Netanyahu), [arrest warrants from the ICC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_arrest_warrants_for_Israeli_leaders) due to Israel's actions in Gaza, and mixed support from the Israeli public.\n\nWith an [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Israeli_legislative_election) required before October 27, 2026, Netanyahu's government faces differing opinion polls, though some pollsters have been implicated in breach of trust and are known to be affiliated with Netanyahu." }, { "id": 40965, "title": "Will GTA VI be released during 2026?", "short_title": "Will GTA VI be released in 2026?", "url_title": "Will GTA VI be released in 2026?", "slug": "will-gta-vi-be-released-in-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T07:22:57.980592Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-21T20:23:45.827656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:18:12.021431Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40673, "title": "Will GTA VI be released during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T07:22:57.980950Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Grand Theft Auto VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_VI) (GTA VI) is an upcoming action-adventure game developed and published by [Rockstar Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockstar_Games). It's predecessor [GTA V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V) is the second best selling video game of all time with an estimated [220 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games) copies sold.\n\nCurrently scheduled to be released on [19 November 2026](https://www.gamesradar.com/gta-6-guide/), the game has been repeatedly delayed with initial expectations of a 2024 released missed with a [2025 release date](https://www.pcgamesn.com/grand-theft-auto-vi/gta-6-release-date-setting-map-characters-gameplay-trailers). The game was then delayed to [May 2026](https://www.ign.com/articles/gta-6-delayed-to-may-2026), before again being delayed to [November 2026](https://www.ign.com/articles/gta-6-is-delayed-again-until-november-2026).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA VI) is publicly released before January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based upon a release anywhere in the world and on any platform, so long as the release is for the general public.\n\nUnofficial leaks, early access to selected individuals, or select physical locations where a preview may be played will not qualify.", "short_title": "Will GTA VI be released in 2026?", "post_id": 40965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Grand Theft Auto VI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_VI) (GTA VI) is an upcoming action-adventure game developed and published by [Rockstar Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockstar_Games). It's predecessor [GTA V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V) is the second best selling video game of all time with an estimated [220 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_games) copies sold.\n\nCurrently scheduled to be released on [19 November 2026](https://www.gamesradar.com/gta-6-guide/), the game has been repeatedly delayed with initial expectations of a 2024 released missed with a [2025 release date](https://www.pcgamesn.com/grand-theft-auto-vi/gta-6-release-date-setting-map-characters-gameplay-trailers). The game was then delayed to [May 2026](https://www.ign.com/articles/gta-6-delayed-to-may-2026), before again being delayed to [November 2026](https://www.ign.com/articles/gta-6-is-delayed-again-until-november-2026)." }, { "id": 40963, "title": "Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?", "short_title": "Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?", "slug": "will-trump-stop-having-potus-powers-in-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-05T01:09:04.338249Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:11:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T00:17:23.232366Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T19:17:15.170731Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:21:55.708017Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40671, "title": "Will Donald Trump cease to exercise presidential powers for 48 hours during 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-05T01:09:04.338628Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald J. Trump was inaugurated to his second term as the US president when he was 79 years old, making him the [oldest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age) person to ever take the oath of office. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/trump-age-health.html), his stamina for public meetings is visibly less than it used to be: \n\n> Americans see Mr. Trump less than they used to, according to a New York Times analysis of his schedule. Mr. Trump has fewer public events on his schedule and is traveling domestically much less than he did by this point during his first year in office, in 2017, although he is taking more foreign trips.\n\n> He also keeps a shorter public schedule than he used to. Most of his public appearances fall between noon and 5 p.m., on average.\n\n> Mr. Trump’s eyelids drooped until his eyes were almost closed, and he appeared to doze on and off for several seconds. At another point, he opened his eyes and looked toward a line of journalists watching him. He stood up only after a guest who was standing near him fainted and collapsed.\n\n> Mr. Trump has prompted additional questions about his health by sharing news about medical procedures he has had, but not details about them. While in Asia, Mr. Trump revealed that he had undergone magnetic resonance imaging at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in early October.\n\nPresident Trump's term is scheduled to end on Saturday January 20, 2029, when his successor gets inaugurated at noon Eastern US time.\n\nOf the 47 presidential terms that have been served throughout US history, 38 (81%) have ended in this default matter: \n\n* One president, Richard M. Nixon, [resigned](https://visit.archives.gov/whats-on/explore-exhibits/president-resigns-50-years-later) on August 9, 1974, a year and a half after the start of his second term. \n* Eight presidents have died in office, with the most recent being John F. Kennedy. \n\nMany Vice Presidents have temporarily [assumed](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/list-vice-presidents-who-served-acting-president-under-the-25th-amendment) the duties of Acting President, with the most recent being Kamala Harris on November 19, 2021. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, Donald Trump is not exercising presidential powers for at least 48 consecutive hours. This includes another individual such as the Vice President temporarily assuming the powers and duties of Trump's office as Acting President pursuant to the [25th Amendment](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-xxv).", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will Trump stop having POTUS powers in 2026?", "post_id": 40963, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald J. Trump was inaugurated to his second term as the US president when he was 79 years old, making him the [oldest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_presidents_of_the_United_States_by_age) person to ever take the oath of office. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/25/us/politics/trump-age-health.html), his stamina for public meetings is visibly less than it used to be: \n\n> Americans see Mr. Trump less than they used to, according to a New York Times analysis of his schedule. Mr. Trump has fewer public events on his schedule and is traveling domestically much less than he did by this point during his first year in office, in 2017, although he is taking more foreign trips.\n\n> He also keeps a shorter public schedule than he used to. Most of his public appearances fall between noon and 5 p.m., on average.\n\n> Mr. Trump’s eyelids drooped until his eyes were almost closed, and he appeared to doze on and off for several seconds. At another point, he opened his eyes and looked toward a line of journalists watching him. He stood up only after a guest who was standing near him fainted and collapsed.\n\n> Mr. Trump has prompted additional questions about his health by sharing news about medical procedures he has had, but not details about them. While in Asia, Mr. Trump revealed that he had undergone magnetic resonance imaging at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center in early October.\n\nPresident Trump's term is scheduled to end on Saturday January 20, 2029, when his successor gets inaugurated at noon Eastern US time.\n\nOf the 47 presidential terms that have been served throughout US history, 38 (81%) have ended in this default matter: \n\n* One president, Richard M. Nixon, [resigned](https://visit.archives.gov/whats-on/explore-exhibits/president-resigns-50-years-later) on August 9, 1974, a year and a half after the start of his second term. \n* Eight presidents have died in office, with the most recent being John F. Kennedy. \n\nMany Vice Presidents have temporarily [assumed](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/data/list-vice-presidents-who-served-acting-president-under-the-25th-amendment) the duties of Acting President, with the most recent being Kamala Harris on November 19, 2021. " }, { "id": 40962, "title": "Will the TrumpRx website be functional before February 1, 2026?", "short_title": "TrumpRx website functional before Feb 1, 2026?", "url_title": "TrumpRx website functional before Feb 1, 2026?", "slug": "trumprx-website-functional-before-feb-1-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T20:19:19.200233Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T04:49:59Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-20T09:11:56.534731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-05T04:50:17.680410Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-06T04:49:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź’Ľ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40670, "title": "Will the TrumpRx website be functional before February 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T20:19:19.200593Z", "open_time": "2025-12-06T04:49:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-10T04:49:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-10T04:49:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> For many years, Americans have paid the highest prices anywhere in the world for prescription drugs — much more than other countries for the exact same product. - US President Donald J. Trump\n\nDuring his first term, [President Trump campaigned on promises to reduce drug prices](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6407585/).\n\nIn his second term, on May 12, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order entitled [*Delivering Most-Favored-Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients*](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/) directing the administration to take a number of actions to bring American drug prices in line with those paid by similar developed nations, known as “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) prices.\n\nOn July 31, the US President sent letters to leading pharmaceutical manufacturers outlining the steps they must take. Then on September 30, the US President announced [the first agreement](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-first-deal-to-bring-most-favored-nation-pricing-to-american-patients/) to do so with a major pharmaceutical company, Pfizer. As reported by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trumprx-website-launch-early-2026-senior-administration-official-says-2025-09-30/), \"the administration hopes that TrumpRx.gov, a website offering reduced prices for prescription drugs, will go live early in 2026.\"\n\n[Some experts are sceptical](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/3/what-is-trumps-new-trumprx-website-and-will-it-bring-medicine-prices-down) though about the wide-reaching impacts of the approach. \n\nAccording to [the TrumpRx website](https://trumprx.gov/),\n\n> TrumpRx doesn't sell medications. Instead, it connects patients directly with the best prices, increasing transparency and cutting out costly third-party markups.\n\nThe government website also states \"Coming Soon\" and \"January 2026\". So will the TrumpRx website be live for its first user to use its intended functionality before the end of January 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if [TrumpRx.gov](https://trumprx.gov/) becomes publicly accessible and operational with at least some functionality of its intended portal role before February 1, 2026. \n\nTo qualify as operational, the site must allow users to search for or view medications and be redirected to purchase them.", "fine_print": "Once the qualifying functionality on the website goes live, this question will immediately resolve as Yes, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access. \n\nGlitches or minor technical issues will not render the site non-functional, provided the core portal functionality remains available to the public.", "short_title": "TrumpRx website functional before Feb 1, 2026?", "post_id": 40962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766221906.382423, "end_time": 1766779754.502, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766221906.382423, "end_time": 1766779754.502, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.34815726180435136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29184345056281896, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7171361101549734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> For many years, Americans have paid the highest prices anywhere in the world for prescription drugs — much more than other countries for the exact same product. - US President Donald J. Trump\n\nDuring his first term, [President Trump campaigned on promises to reduce drug prices](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6407585/).\n\nIn his second term, on May 12, 2025, President Trump signed an Executive Order entitled [*Delivering Most-Favored-Nation Prescription Drug Pricing to American Patients*](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/delivering-most-favored-nation-prescription-drug-pricing-to-american-patients/) directing the administration to take a number of actions to bring American drug prices in line with those paid by similar developed nations, known as “Most Favoured Nation” (MFN) prices.\n\nOn July 31, the US President sent letters to leading pharmaceutical manufacturers outlining the steps they must take. Then on September 30, the US President announced [the first agreement](https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/09/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-announces-first-deal-to-bring-most-favored-nation-pricing-to-american-patients/) to do so with a major pharmaceutical company, Pfizer. As reported by [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/trumprx-website-launch-early-2026-senior-administration-official-says-2025-09-30/), \"the administration hopes that TrumpRx.gov, a website offering reduced prices for prescription drugs, will go live early in 2026.\"\n\n[Some experts are sceptical](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/3/what-is-trumps-new-trumprx-website-and-will-it-bring-medicine-prices-down) though about the wide-reaching impacts of the approach. \n\nAccording to [the TrumpRx website](https://trumprx.gov/),\n\n> TrumpRx doesn't sell medications. Instead, it connects patients directly with the best prices, increasing transparency and cutting out costly third-party markups.\n\nThe government website also states \"Coming Soon\" and \"January 2026\". So will the TrumpRx website be live for its first user to use its intended functionality before the end of January 2026?" }, { "id": 40961, "title": "Will EVs make up the majority of new vehicle sales globally by 2030?", "short_title": "EVs majority of new sales by 2030?", "url_title": "EVs majority of new sales by 2030?", "slug": "evs-majority-of-new-sales-by-2030", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:38:28.368560Z", "published_at": "2025-12-07T20:53:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T17:35:25.867739Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-07T20:56:00.204136Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-08T20:53:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź’Ľ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:23:36.425760Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:23:36.425760Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40669, "title": "Will EVs make up the majority of new vehicle sales globally by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:38:28.369001Z", "open_time": "2025-12-08T20:53:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-12T20:53:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-12T20:53:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-05-16T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will EVs exceed 50% of global sales by 2030?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-EVs-be-majority-globally-by)\n\nThe global electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly, but whether EVs will reach a *majority* of new vehicle sales by 2030 remains unclear. According to the [<u>International Energy Agency (IEA)</u>](https://www.iea.org/), under current policies (which IEA calls its “[<u>Stated Policies Scenario</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/stated-policies-scenario-steps)” or STEPS), [<u>EVs' share of global sales could exceed 40% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/news/more-than-1-in-4-cars-sold-worldwide-this-year-is-set-to-be-electric-as-ev-sales-continue-to-grow). In the more aspirational policy-pledges scenario (APS), [<u>IEA projects EVs' sales share could reach around 45% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-mobility?).\n\nIndependent analyses, however, suggest a faster adoption curve. A report from RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) projects that EVs could claim between [<u>62% and 86% of global new-vehicle sales by 2030</u>](https://rmi.org/press-release/evs-to-surpass-two-thirds-of-global-car-sales-by-2030-putting-at-risk-nearly-half-of-oil-demand-new-research-finds/), driven primarily by falling battery costs and strong policy incentives. On the other hand, more conservative forecasts from consulting firms like Deloitte estimate EVs will account for only about [<u>32% of global new-car sales by 2030</u>](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/future-of-mobility/electric-vehicle-trends-2030.html?).\n\nOn the infrastructure side, [<u>battery cost declines and increasing investment in EV charging networks support optimistic adoption scenarios</u>](https://www.batterytechonline.com/charging/charging-infrastructure-struggles-to-keep-up-with-ev-boom). At the same time, some automakers are scaling back or delaying their EV production plans, which could slow growth. For example, [<u>Toyota recently cut its EV production target for 2026</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-cut-2026-global-ev-production-by-around-third-1-mln-nikkei-reports-2024-09-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These tensions — between strong policy and cost tailwinds on one side, and industry risk and geopolitical supply-chain constraints on the other — make the 2030 outcome uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in any year before 2031, EVs account for a majority (over 50%) of global new light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales.\n\nThe principal resolution source for this question will be the IEA's [Global EV Outlook reports](https://www.iea.org/analysis?type=report\\&energySystem%5B0%5D=electric-vehicles\\§or%5B0%5D=transport). If the IEA ceases to publish such reports, this question may resolve according to another reliable public source, such as automaker or industry-market-research publications (e.g., RMI, BloombergNEF) or credible media outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Financial Times) reporting data or forecasts.", "fine_print": "EVs include battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).", "short_title": "EVs majority of new sales by 2030?", "post_id": 40961, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766079315.531857, "end_time": 1773089563.173, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766079315.531857, "end_time": 1773089563.173, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31735317965717735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.162797292249664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8793391127179391, 1.1727417964059772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5081584675155434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7102714609196534, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will EVs exceed 50% of global sales by 2030?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-EVs-be-majority-globally-by)\n\nThe global electric vehicle (EV) market is growing rapidly, but whether EVs will reach a *majority* of new vehicle sales by 2030 remains unclear. According to the [<u>International Energy Agency (IEA)</u>](https://www.iea.org/), under current policies (which IEA calls its “[<u>Stated Policies Scenario</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-energy-and-climate-model/stated-policies-scenario-steps)” or STEPS), [<u>EVs' share of global sales could exceed 40% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/news/more-than-1-in-4-cars-sold-worldwide-this-year-is-set-to-be-electric-as-ev-sales-continue-to-grow). In the more aspirational policy-pledges scenario (APS), [<u>IEA projects EVs' sales share could reach around 45% by 2030</u>](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2024/outlook-for-electric-mobility?).\n\nIndependent analyses, however, suggest a faster adoption curve. A report from RMI (Rocky Mountain Institute) projects that EVs could claim between [<u>62% and 86% of global new-vehicle sales by 2030</u>](https://rmi.org/press-release/evs-to-surpass-two-thirds-of-global-car-sales-by-2030-putting-at-risk-nearly-half-of-oil-demand-new-research-finds/), driven primarily by falling battery costs and strong policy incentives. On the other hand, more conservative forecasts from consulting firms like Deloitte estimate EVs will account for only about [<u>32% of global new-car sales by 2030</u>](https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/future-of-mobility/electric-vehicle-trends-2030.html?).\n\nOn the infrastructure side, [<u>battery cost declines and increasing investment in EV charging networks support optimistic adoption scenarios</u>](https://www.batterytechonline.com/charging/charging-infrastructure-struggles-to-keep-up-with-ev-boom). At the same time, some automakers are scaling back or delaying their EV production plans, which could slow growth. For example, [<u>Toyota recently cut its EV production target for 2026</u>](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-cut-2026-global-ev-production-by-around-third-1-mln-nikkei-reports-2024-09-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). These tensions — between strong policy and cost tailwinds on one side, and industry risk and geopolitical supply-chain constraints on the other — make the 2030 outcome uncertain." }, { "id": 40960, "title": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?", "short_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "url_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "slug": "trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-before-jan-21-2029", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:36:08.004706Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T01:50:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T01:02:22.512631Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-05T01:51:27.984866Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-06T01:50:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:23:36.425760Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:23:36.425760Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40668, "title": "Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan. 21, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-12-04T19:36:08.005130Z", "open_time": "2025-12-06T01:50:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-10T01:50:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-10T01:50:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-20T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-pardon-Ghislaine-Maxwell)\n\n[<u>Ghislaine Maxwell</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell?), a close associate of Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted in 2021 on multiple charges related to sex trafficking of underage girls. She was [<u>sentenced to 20 years in federal prison</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/us/ghislaine-maxwell-sentencing). Her legal team is still appealing, including [<u>arguing that a prior non-prosecution deal involving Epstein should have shielded her</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nIn 2025, [<u>Maxwell was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/25/justice-blanche-florida-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-trump/) for two days, addressing questions about many individuals connected to Epstein’s network. Around the same time, Trump [<u>publicly acknowledged he has the power to pardon her</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-doubles-down-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-comment-2105157?), saying “I’m allowed to do it,” but also that he hasn’t “thought about” it. Maxwell’s attorney has expressed hope for clemency, [<u>arguing that she was wronged by the government’s earlier handling of Epstein’s cases</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nThere is [<u>political controversy around the issue:</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-victims-b2798310.html?) some of Epstein’s victims and their families strongly oppose a pardon or commutation, and members of Congress have publicly demanded that clemency not be granted. Meanwhile, Maxwell’s lawyer has [<u>indicated she would be more willing to testify before Congress</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/29/ghislaine-maxwells-lawyer-tells-congress-shell-only-testify-after-appeal-is-over-or-if-trump-pardons-her/?) — but only after her appeal or in exchange for clemency.\n\nBecause presidential pardons are constitutionally permitted for federal convictions, [<u>Trump legally can pardon Maxwell</u>](https://time.com/7305903/donald-trump-ghislane-maxwell-pardon/?). However, whether he will is uncertain: his public statements have been noncommittal, legal and political risks are high, and any pardon could provoke strong backlash.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, there is credible confirmation that Donald Trump has granted a presidential pardon to Ghislaine Maxwell or commuted her sentence such that she is immediately entitled to be released from prison.", "fine_print": "1. The action must be a formal clemency grant (pardon or commutation) issued by Trump, documented in official records (e.g., White House, DOJ) or confirmed by credible media outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, NYT, WaPo).\n2. The clemency must specifically reference Maxwell by name.", "short_title": "Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before Jan 21, 2029?", "post_id": 40960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766019731.575481, "end_time": 1772804116.157, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766019731.575481, "end_time": 1772804116.157, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.23007134424786968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 1.2339571171407726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7877898738940653, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Trump-pardon-Ghislaine-Maxwell)\n\n[<u>Ghislaine Maxwell</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell?), a close associate of Jeffrey Epstein, was convicted in 2021 on multiple charges related to sex trafficking of underage girls. She was [<u>sentenced to 20 years in federal prison</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/28/us/ghislaine-maxwell-sentencing). Her legal team is still appealing, including [<u>arguing that a prior non-prosecution deal involving Epstein should have shielded her</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nIn 2025, [<u>Maxwell was interviewed by Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/07/25/justice-blanche-florida-ghislaine-maxwell-epstein-trump/) for two days, addressing questions about many individuals connected to Epstein’s network. Around the same time, Trump [<u>publicly acknowledged he has the power to pardon her</u>](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-doubles-down-ghislaine-maxwell-pardon-comment-2105157?), saying “I’m allowed to do it,” but also that he hasn’t “thought about” it. Maxwell’s attorney has expressed hope for clemency, [<u>arguing that she was wronged by the government’s earlier handling of Epstein’s cases</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2025/jul/25/trump-administration-politics-live-updates?).\n\nThere is [<u>political controversy around the issue:</u>](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-victims-b2798310.html?) some of Epstein’s victims and their families strongly oppose a pardon or commutation, and members of Congress have publicly demanded that clemency not be granted. Meanwhile, Maxwell’s lawyer has [<u>indicated she would be more willing to testify before Congress</u>](https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2025/07/29/ghislaine-maxwells-lawyer-tells-congress-shell-only-testify-after-appeal-is-over-or-if-trump-pardons-her/?) — but only after her appeal or in exchange for clemency.\n\nBecause presidential pardons are constitutionally permitted for federal convictions, [<u>Trump legally can pardon Maxwell</u>](https://time.com/7305903/donald-trump-ghislane-maxwell-pardon/?). However, whether he will is uncertain: his public statements have been noncommittal, legal and political risks are high, and any pardon could provoke strong backlash." }, { "id": 40950, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-in-dec-2025jan-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T10:03:51.921176Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T15:17:57Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:15:39.590229Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T10:05:15.998806Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T10:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 129, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:15:40.475015Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T06:15:40.475015Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40643, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T10:03:51.921537Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T10:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n\nTo qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?", "post_id": 40950, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766384129.050686, "end_time": 1766392553.08, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766384129.050686, "end_time": 1766392553.08, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.4850611150574528 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.014610171369482, 0.03717066227394352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2848030142415345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28051069440886034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387537613074231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39546664899524236, 0.01111780621856027, 0.42164192314251575, 0.30099722414245433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03732254702502331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21051487692516702, 0.0, 0.5591139892607669, 0.31620771053350477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6213782665940669, 0.07835137123643193, 0.0, 0.3057963020159622, 0.0, 0.9014987091715116, 1.2541360926869527, 0.0176237921110215, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9872053838409467, 0.0033615277702142223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4461208955148534, 0.857711351994942, 0.5674764649903302, 0.2981739193928926, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4083638012274857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008677486979024548, 0.0, 0.20586365697103395, 0.003801900942845266, 0.02483851727222615, 0.151812353241977, 0.0, 0.37131044267481506, 0.0001673606129161287, 0.0, 0.05043066873448547, 0.0, 0.2944845143610421, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11586393775539122, 0.47185298950068955, 0.006019301719204367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008259590827765978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5065460263769974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3983615267089262, 0.0, 0.8121273317493872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170568358350962 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 439, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela." }, { "id": 40948, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "url_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "slug": "sixth-icj-case-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.779445Z", "published_at": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-05T17:00:00.308445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.914962Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T00:06:42.688832Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T00:06:42.688832Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40641, "title": "Will a sixth contentious case be opened at the International Court of Justice in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.779896Z", "open_time": "2025-12-05T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-05T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40882,\"question_id\":40551}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if a contentious case is introduced at the International Court of Justice in December 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for resolution will be the [ICJ website](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc).", "short_title": "Sixth ICJ case in 2025?", "post_id": 40948, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764952863.948601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764952863.948601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22594853597938416 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Court of Justice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Court_of_Justice) was established, as part of the United Nations, in 1945. It is the only international court that resolves disputes between states. States however [must consent](https://auilr.org/2025/10/03/heads-i-win-tails-you-lose-how-irans-opinio-juris-claim-of-sovereign-immunity-highlights-a-crisis-of-authority-for-the-international-court-of-justice/) to its jurisdiction and enforcement of its orders are subject to veto by the [UN Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council), which significantly limits its influence and power.\n\nNonetheless, many states have had occasion to seek relief from the ICJ over the years. Since the [first case](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corfu_Channel_case) was opened in 1947, [201 (contentious) cases](https://www.icj-cij.org/contentious-cases?dateorder=introduction\\&order=desc) have been brought before the ICJ, including five cases already brought during 2025 (by Sudan, Iran, France, Lithuania, and Russia).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40882,\"question_id\":40551}}`" }, { "id": 40947, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "url_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "slug": "germany-enact-aktivrente-pre-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.547383Z", "published_at": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-04T17:00:00.322635Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.681938Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T00:06:42.688832Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T00:06:42.688832Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40640, "title": "Will Germany enact the Aktivrente before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T09:08:08.547881Z", "open_time": "2025-12-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40924,\"question_id\":40612}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Germany enacts an extra tax-free allowance on employment income for people above statutory retirement age before January 3, 2026.", "fine_print": "This question will not wait for the law to enter into legal force, if the bill is officially enacted this question will immediately resolve as **Yes**.\n\nThis question will still resolve **Yes** if certain categories of income (such as self-employment) are excluded, as in the existing proposal.", "short_title": "Germany enact Aktivrente pre-2026?", "post_id": 40947, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764866645.296416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6966059082965339 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764866645.296416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6966059082965339 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7426199361080472 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During August 2025, the governing coalition of the CDU/CSU and the SPD introduced a wide-spanning [pension reform package](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2025/11/27/germany-s-pension-reform-becomes-a-generational-conflict_6747872_4.html), including a stabilisation of the pension replacement rate, an expansion of pension credits to parents, the abolishment of rules preventing rehire of retirees under fixed-term contracts, and most controversially the [Aktivrente](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/15/german-retirees-who-continue-working-set-to-earn-1750-a-month-tax-free) (active pension). This is a proposed change to the German tax system in which work income earned by pensioners under €2,000 a month is considered tax-free.\n\nAfter being approved by the [Federal Cabinet](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/issues/bill-active-pension-2389668), the bill must now be passed by the Bundestag and be approved by the Bundesrat. The current draft sets the law to enter into effect on January 1, 2026, with the government aiming to pass the bill during 2025.\n\n[Criticised by lawmakers](https://www.thelocal.de/20251128/merz-digs-in-on-pensions-bill-despite-party-rebellion) from the CDU's Youth Wing, the bill is at risk of failing due to the only 12 seat majority of the governing coalition. Friedrich Merz stated that \"[I expect approval](https://www.reuters.com/world/merz-hopes-avoid-german-coalition-crisis-with-vow-overhaul-pensions-2025-11-28/)\", however the bill will still have to gain the support of the Youth Wing's 18 members or from another party such as [the Greens](https://themunicheye.com/greens-pension-reform-commission-germany-29958).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40924,\"question_id\":40612}}`" }, { "id": 40946, "title": "Will China request a WTO panel in its EV and battery-related trade dispute with India before January 11, 2026?", "short_title": "China request WTO panel in dispute with India before Jan 11, 2026?", "url_title": "China request WTO panel in dispute with India before Jan 11, 2026?", "slug": "china-request-wto-panel-in-dispute-with-india-before-jan-11-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-03T01:56:49.835154Z", "published_at": "2025-12-20T18:33:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T04:49:13.500794Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-20T18:35:39.946061Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-10T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-11T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-21T18:33:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "đź’Ľ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32847, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warm-up: Bridgewater x Metaculus", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-12-08T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-11T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-11T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-24T11:03:25.734058Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T05:27:29.105591Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32847, "type": "question_series", "name": "Warm-up: Bridgewater x Metaculus", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-12-08T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-11T22:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-11T16:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-24T11:03:25.734058Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-22T05:27:29.105591Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40639, "title": "Will China request a WTO panel in its EV and battery-related trade dispute with India before January 11, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-03T01:56:49.835561Z", "open_time": "2025-12-21T18:33:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-25T18:33:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-25T18:33:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-11T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-10T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-10T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Bridgewater](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/modern-mercantilism), the era of economic liberalism and global trade cooperation is coming to an end. Free trade is being replaced by a modern mercantilism in which countries compete instead of cooperate. China in its rush to build electric cars has [found](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/08/21/in-china-the-electric-car-sector-is-facing-the-challenge-of-overcapacity_6744563_19.html) itself in a glut, in which companies like BYD have failed to meet sales targets and now face overcapacity in their factories. The only solution then is to look for markets abroad--like India. China, however, sees its companies as being blocked by the Indian government. This has caused China to escalate the issue to the World Trade Organization, of which both China and India are members who have agreed to abide by the WTO's dispute settlement rulings. \n\nAccording to [Rest of World](https://restofworld.org/2025/china-wto-complaint-india-ev/):\n\n> The world’s largest EV producer, China has requested the World Trade Organization to settle a dispute with India over incentive schemes, which it claims discriminate against Chinese goods, according to a communication released by the Geneva-based intergovernmental body [on October 20](https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/G/L/1588.pdf\\&Open=True).\n\n> In its complaint dated October 15, Beijing had challenged three of India’s production-linked incentives, or PLIs. China claims they are “contingent upon the use of domestic over imported goods or that otherwise discriminate against goods of Chinese origin.”\n\nThe first official step with the WTO is a request for consultations over India's measures: \n\n> The first two of the production-linked incentives, both from 2021, affect the manufacturers of EV batteries, components, and original equipment. The third, introduced in March 2024, slashes import duties on fully built passenger EVs from 110% to 15% for cars priced above \\$35,000, capped at 80,000 units annually.\n\n> The Indian government is using the scheme to [attract the likes of Tesla](https://restofworld.org/2025/tesla-ev-india-mumbai-showroom/) while keeping Chinese players [ineligible](https://www.cnbctv18.com/auto/tesla-others-invited-for-scheme-for-promotion-of-manufacturing-electric-passenger-cars-but-not-china-minister-hd-kumaraswamy-19626034.htm). As India cannot build its domestic EV sector without [China’s help](https://restofworld.org/2025/india-ev-market-chinese-technology/), it is maintaining a selective approach. Rather than placing blanket restrictions, it is blocking some investments while allowing strategic partnerships.\n\nAccording to WTO's [rules](https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/dsu_e.htm#art6), 60 days after filing its request for consultations, a country can then request a dispute panel. (The clock [started](https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/ds642rfc_20oct25_177_e.htm) on October 20, 2025, so that means the door opens on December 19, 2025.)  \n\nOne study [found](https://cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/core/bitstreams/5f9948cc-e649-50b4-b020-d01b8a7c32fb/content) (see page 4) that from 1996 to 2016, 20% of disputes were resolved within the 60-day period. Note, however, that the 60 days is the minimum time in which to file the dispute rather than a deadline.\n\nAs Bridgewater [puts it:](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/were-all-mercantilists-now) \n\n> National interests, rather than solely market interests, drive the creation and protection of large “national champion” companies that can contribute to a robust manufacturing base.\n\nRegarding issues such as this dispute:\n\n> **China has embraced many of these mercantilist policies for some time now**, steadily scaling up support to its industrial sector in technologies like electric vehicles and batteries since 2010. President Xi has explicitly tied China’s development goals to the creation of an advanced manufacturing system, and since 2020 he has tied industrial policy planning to security goals and self-reliance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 11, 2026, China files a [Request for the Establishment of a Panel](https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/repertory_e/r2_e.htm) with the World Trade Organization (WTO) with regard to dispute [WT/DS642](https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/FE_Search/FE_S_S006.aspx?MetaCollection=WTO\\&SymbolList=WT%2fDS642%2f1\\&Language=ENGLISH\\&SearchPage=FE_S_S001\\&languageUIChanged=true#) (\"Measures Concerning Trade in the Automotive and Renewable Energy Technology Sectors\"), pursuant to [Article 6.2 ](https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/dsu_e.htm#art6)of the WTO Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes. ", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "China request WTO panel in dispute with India before Jan 11, 2026?", "post_id": 40946, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Bridgewater](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/modern-mercantilism), the era of economic liberalism and global trade cooperation is coming to an end. Free trade is being replaced by a modern mercantilism in which countries compete instead of cooperate. China in its rush to build electric cars has [found](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/economy/article/2025/08/21/in-china-the-electric-car-sector-is-facing-the-challenge-of-overcapacity_6744563_19.html) itself in a glut, in which companies like BYD have failed to meet sales targets and now face overcapacity in their factories. The only solution then is to look for markets abroad--like India. China, however, sees its companies as being blocked by the Indian government. This has caused China to escalate the issue to the World Trade Organization, of which both China and India are members who have agreed to abide by the WTO's dispute settlement rulings. \n\nAccording to [Rest of World](https://restofworld.org/2025/china-wto-complaint-india-ev/):\n\n> The world’s largest EV producer, China has requested the World Trade Organization to settle a dispute with India over incentive schemes, which it claims discriminate against Chinese goods, according to a communication released by the Geneva-based intergovernmental body [on October 20](https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/G/L/1588.pdf\\&Open=True).\n\n> In its complaint dated October 15, Beijing had challenged three of India’s production-linked incentives, or PLIs. China claims they are “contingent upon the use of domestic over imported goods or that otherwise discriminate against goods of Chinese origin.”\n\nThe first official step with the WTO is a request for consultations over India's measures: \n\n> The first two of the production-linked incentives, both from 2021, affect the manufacturers of EV batteries, components, and original equipment. The third, introduced in March 2024, slashes import duties on fully built passenger EVs from 110% to 15% for cars priced above \\$35,000, capped at 80,000 units annually.\n\n> The Indian government is using the scheme to [attract the likes of Tesla](https://restofworld.org/2025/tesla-ev-india-mumbai-showroom/) while keeping Chinese players [ineligible](https://www.cnbctv18.com/auto/tesla-others-invited-for-scheme-for-promotion-of-manufacturing-electric-passenger-cars-but-not-china-minister-hd-kumaraswamy-19626034.htm). As India cannot build its domestic EV sector without [China’s help](https://restofworld.org/2025/india-ev-market-chinese-technology/), it is maintaining a selective approach. Rather than placing blanket restrictions, it is blocking some investments while allowing strategic partnerships.\n\nAccording to WTO's [rules](https://www.wto.org/english/docs_e/legal_e/dsu_e.htm#art6), 60 days after filing its request for consultations, a country can then request a dispute panel. (The clock [started](https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news25_e/ds642rfc_20oct25_177_e.htm) on October 20, 2025, so that means the door opens on December 19, 2025.)  \n\nOne study [found](https://cadmus.eui.eu/server/api/core/bitstreams/5f9948cc-e649-50b4-b020-d01b8a7c32fb/content) (see page 4) that from 1996 to 2016, 20% of disputes were resolved within the 60-day period. Note, however, that the 60 days is the minimum time in which to file the dispute rather than a deadline.\n\nAs Bridgewater [puts it:](https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/were-all-mercantilists-now) \n\n> National interests, rather than solely market interests, drive the creation and protection of large “national champion” companies that can contribute to a robust manufacturing base.\n\nRegarding issues such as this dispute:\n\n> **China has embraced many of these mercantilist policies for some time now**, steadily scaling up support to its industrial sector in technologies like electric vehicles and batteries since 2010. President Xi has explicitly tied China’s development goals to the creation of an advanced manufacturing system, and since 2020 he has tied industrial policy planning to security goals and self-reliance." }, { "id": 40942, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "short_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "url_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "slug": "who-announce-non-h5n1-pandemic-in-2030", "author_id": 280307, "author_username": "Dudleyd444", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T12:41:16.038052Z", "published_at": "2025-12-10T16:01:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T20:58:12.757561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-10T16:02:03.191904Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T16:01:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40629, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T12:41:16.038418Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T16:01:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-15T16:01:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-15T16:01:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n‎\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the World Health Organization announces that any disease except the H5N1 flu strain is a pandemic.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "WHO announce non-H5N1 Pandemic in 2030", "post_id": 40942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766091481.795394, "end_time": 1773293636.664, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766091481.795394, "end_time": 1773293636.664, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.12643569512382197 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.8423388801235393, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n‎\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks." }, { "id": 40939, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-announce-a-new-capital-before-jan-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.193324Z", "published_at": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-03T17:00:00.367035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.358282Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T00:06:42.688832Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-18T00:06:42.688832Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40626, "title": "Will Iran announce a new capital location before January 3, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T09:08:27.193859Z", "open_time": "2025-12-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-03T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40854,\"question_id\":40512}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2026, Iran officially announces that it plans to move its capital to a specific location.", "fine_print": "* The announcement has to include a the new location of the capital, at list at the level of a specific county. Announcements that mention moving the capital, but not a specific new location will not suffice to resolve this question.\n* The announcement alone will be sufficient for resolution, regardless of any subsequent implementation details, such as when the capital is planned to be moved, whether government institutions actually relocate, how many people move, or any other practical steps.", "short_title": "Will Iran announce a new capital before Jan 3, 2026?", "post_id": 40939, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1764780220.797664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1764780220.797664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2050689977041926 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [Middle East Eye](https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-president-says-capital-must-move-tehran-over-ecological-concerns):\n\n> Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian has suggested his country's capital will need to be moved from Tehran due to ecological unsustainability in the city. … \\[T]he president warned that relocating the capital would become unavoidable given the overcrowding and water shortages in the city of 9.7 million. … \"When we proposed relocating the capital, we lacked the budget - otherwise it might have happened,\" Pezeshkian told officials. \"People said it was impossible, but now it’s no longer optional.\"\n\nAccording to [Scientific American](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/irans-capital-has-run-out-of-water-forcing-it-to-move/):\n\n> Since at least 2008, scientists have warned that unchecked groundwater pumping for the city and for agriculture [was rapidly draining the country’s aquifers](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2008GL033814). The overuse did not just deplete underground reserves—it destroyed them, as the land compressed and sank irreversibly. One [recent study](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk3039) found that Iran’s central plateau, where most of the country’s aquifers are located, is sinking by more than 35 centimeters each year. As a result, the aquifers lose about 1.7 billion cubic meters of water annually as the ground is permanently crushed, leaving no space for underground water storage to recover…. \n\n> This is not the first time Iran’s capital has moved. Over the centuries, it has shifted many times, from Tabriz to Isfahan to Shiraz. Some of these former capitals still thrive while others exist only as ruins…\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40854,\"question_id\":40512}}`" }, { "id": 40938, "title": "Will California Emissions Reporting Laws SB 253 and SB 261 Be In Effect on September 1, 2026?", "short_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "url_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "slug": "ca-emissions-reporting-sb253-and-261-in-effect-on-9126", "author_id": 100015, "author_username": "rchesnut7", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-02T02:06:22.557329Z", "published_at": "2025-12-10T15:57:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T00:09:15.792077Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-10T15:57:59.836909Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-11T15:57:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40625, "title": "Will California Emissions Reporting Laws SB 253 and SB 261 Be In Effect on September 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-02T02:06:22.557853Z", "open_time": "2025-12-11T15:57:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-15T15:57:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-15T15:57:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-09-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-09-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California has passed a pair of laws, known as SB 253 and SB 261, requiring companies that do business in the state to file public reports on their emissions. There have been 2 legal challenges to these laws filed in California federal courts, one by the Chamber of Commerce and the other by Exxon. In the Chamber of Commerce case, the judge denied the plaintiff's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that the Chamber was not likely to succeed on the merits. The Chamber appealed, and the 9th Circuit set an expedited hearing date of January 9, 2026 to consider the case. \n\nSB 261 originally required companies to file reports by January 1, 2026, but the 9th Circuit stayed the law pending the outcome of the appeal. SB 253 is a related emissions law scheduled to go into effort in August, 2026, and while the 9th Circuit declined to enjoin this law pending the appeal, the appeal is expected to resolve challenges to both laws. If the 9th Circuit rules against the Chamber, it is widely expected that the Chamber would appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and ask that Court for a stay pending the appeal.\n\nThe answer to this question has important implications for supporters and opponents of sustainability and green regulation.  ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if both the Climate Corporate Data Accountability Act (SB 253) and the Climate-Related Financial Risk Act (SB 261) are in effect on September 1, 2026 (UTC +7:00).", "fine_print": "If either law is rewritten or changed, and that new law is in effect, that will not qualify for this question.", "short_title": "CA Emissions Reporting SB253 and 261 in effect on 9/1/26?", "post_id": 40938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765477635.750142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765477635.750142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.66 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California has passed a pair of laws, known as SB 253 and SB 261, requiring companies that do business in the state to file public reports on their emissions. There have been 2 legal challenges to these laws filed in California federal courts, one by the Chamber of Commerce and the other by Exxon. In the Chamber of Commerce case, the judge denied the plaintiff's motion for a preliminary injunction, finding that the Chamber was not likely to succeed on the merits. The Chamber appealed, and the 9th Circuit set an expedited hearing date of January 9, 2026 to consider the case. \n\nSB 261 originally required companies to file reports by January 1, 2026, but the 9th Circuit stayed the law pending the outcome of the appeal. SB 253 is a related emissions law scheduled to go into effort in August, 2026, and while the 9th Circuit declined to enjoin this law pending the appeal, the appeal is expected to resolve challenges to both laws. If the 9th Circuit rules against the Chamber, it is widely expected that the Chamber would appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court and ask that Court for a stay pending the appeal.\n\nThe answer to this question has important implications for supporters and opponents of sustainability and green regulation.  " }, { "id": 40933, "title": "Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?", "short_title": "Verstappen win Abu Dhabi Grand Prix", "url_title": "Verstappen win Abu Dhabi Grand Prix", "slug": "verstappen-win-abu-dhabi-grand-prix", "author_id": 282199, "author_username": "David_", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-30T17:43:22.489490Z", "published_at": "2025-11-30T17:43:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-07T18:14:43.322732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-30T17:45:46.495103Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-09T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32845, "name": "Rational Ottawa", "type": "community", "slug": "ottawa", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 32845, "name": "Rational Ottawa", "type": "community", "slug": "ottawa", "description": "", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 40621, "title": "Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?", "created_at": "2025-11-30T17:43:22.489863Z", "open_time": "2025-12-01T17:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-05T17:43:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-05T17:43:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-09T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-12-07T18:14:43.295486Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-07T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-07T18:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is the final race of the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship season, scheduled for **December 7, 2025**, at the iconic Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This race has historically been a season-defining event—most memorably in 2021, when it determined the World Championship in a controversial final-lap showdown between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.\n\nMax Verstappen, driving for Red Bull Racing, has dominated the 2024 and 2025 seasons, establishing himself as one of the most successful drivers in F1 history. The Dutch driver secured his fourth consecutive World Championship in 2024 and continues to be a frontrunner in the 2025 season.\n\nThe Yas Marina Circuit, designed by Hermann Tilke, features 21 turns over a 5.281 km lap and includes the distinctive segment that passes through the W Abu Dhabi hotel. The track has been a Red Bull stronghold in recent years, with Verstappen winning the 2023 edition.\n\nThis question asks whether Verstappen will take the chequered flag first at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Max Verstappen is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix according to the final classified results published by the FĂ©dĂ©ration Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\n\nThis question resolves **No** if any other driver is declared the winner, or if Max Verstappen does not participate in the race.\n\nThe primary resolution source will be the [official FIA results](https://www.fia.com/championship/events/fia-formula-one-world-championship/season-2025/abu-dhabi-grand-prix-0) or the [Formula 1 official website](https://www.formula1.com/).", "fine_print": "* If the race is cancelled and not rescheduled before December 31, 2025, this question resolves **No**.\n* If the race is postponed but takes place before December 31, 2025, the question will resolve based on the rescheduled race results.\n* If Verstappen finishes first on track but is later disqualified or has a time penalty applied that drops him from first place (as per the final classified results), this question resolves **No**.\n* If provisional results differ from final classified results, resolution will be based on the **final classified results** as published by the FIA.\n* If the FIA website is unavailable, the official Formula 1 website (formula1.com) will be used as an alternative source.", "short_title": "Verstappen win Abu Dhabi Grand Prix", "post_id": 40933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1765124922.799821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1765124922.799821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.45 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.519586744277706, "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.1802165027726099, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.1849563069751886, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 12.519586744277706, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Formula 1 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix is the final race of the 2025 Formula 1 World Championship season, scheduled for **December 7, 2025**, at the iconic Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. This race has historically been a season-defining event—most memorably in 2021, when it determined the World Championship in a controversial final-lap showdown between Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton.\n\nMax Verstappen, driving for Red Bull Racing, has dominated the 2024 and 2025 seasons, establishing himself as one of the most successful drivers in F1 history. The Dutch driver secured his fourth consecutive World Championship in 2024 and continues to be a frontrunner in the 2025 season.\n\nThe Yas Marina Circuit, designed by Hermann Tilke, features 21 turns over a 5.281 km lap and includes the distinctive segment that passes through the W Abu Dhabi hotel. The track has been a Red Bull stronghold in recent years, with Verstappen winning the 2023 edition.\n\nThis question asks whether Verstappen will take the chequered flag first at the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix." } ] }
