Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6206, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 40295, "title": "Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "Helion delivers to Microsoft ≥50 MW before 2030?", "url_title": "Helion delivers to Microsoft ≥50 MW before 2030?", "slug": "helion-delivers-to-microsoft-50-mw-before-2030", "author_id": 100558, "author_username": "ChristianKleineidam", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-09T12:09:01.626816Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T01:28:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T03:10:53.996599Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-17T01:31:18.983639Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T01:28:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39844, "title": "Will Helion deliver ≥50 MW to Microsoft under their fusion PPA before January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2025-10-09T12:09:01.627211Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T01:28:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T01:28:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T01:28:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-07-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Helion Energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy) is a fusion research company seeking to develop a commercial fusion power plant. In May 2023, Helion [announced](https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nuclear-fusion-company-helion-2023-05-10/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) a power-purchase agreement (PPA) with Microsoft, [targeting](https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) first operation in 2028 and aiming to generate “50 MW or greater after a 1-year ramp-up.” A separate company, [Constellation Energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation_Energy), is set to serve as the power marketer and provide transmission for the project.\n\nIn 2025, Helion [began site work](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/073025-helion-energy-breaks-ground-on-fusion-power-plant-slated-to-be-online-in-2028?utm_source=chatgpt.com) on its first plant (“Orion”), [near Malaga, Washington](https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/starting-to-build-the-worlds-first-fusion-power-plant-in-malaga-wa/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). At the time, a Helion spokesperson affirmed that it remains on track for the Microsoft delivery.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if, before January 1, 2030 (UTC), Helion provides 50 or more megawatts of electrical power to Microsoft under the terms of the 2023 PPA, according to public documentation from Microsoft, Helion, or Constellation or unambiguous reporting from credible sources citing Microsoft, Helion, or Constellation.\n\nPower delivery must be according to any terms of the PPA that have been made public, including any amendments. And in any event, Helion must provide 50+ MW of power for at least one continuous hour for this question to resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "Grid-mediated delivery via Constellation counts if explicitly attributed to Helion under the PPA.\n\nIf the PPA is terminated before any qualifying delivery, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 40295, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760843443.675831, "end_time": 1776481199.999, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760843443.675831, "end_time": 1776481199.999, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.22390309752226709 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Helion Energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helion_Energy) is a fusion research company seeking to develop a commercial fusion power plant. In May 2023, Helion [announced](https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-buy-power-nuclear-fusion-company-helion-2023-05-10/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) a power-purchase agreement (PPA) with Microsoft, [targeting](https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/helion-announces-worlds-first-fusion-ppa-with-microsoft/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) first operation in 2028 and aiming to generate “50 MW or greater after a 1-year ramp-up.” A separate company, [Constellation Energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constellation_Energy), is set to serve as the power marketer and provide transmission for the project.\n\nIn 2025, Helion [began site work](https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/073025-helion-energy-breaks-ground-on-fusion-power-plant-slated-to-be-online-in-2028?utm_source=chatgpt.com) on its first plant (“Orion”), [near Malaga, Washington](https://www.helionenergy.com/articles/starting-to-build-the-worlds-first-fusion-power-plant-in-malaga-wa/?utm_source=chatgpt.com). At the time, a Helion spokesperson affirmed that it remains on track for the Microsoft delivery." }, { "id": 40291, "title": "Will the US stock market go down by more than 2% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US stock market go down by >2% in any week in Q4 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US stock market go down by >2% in any week in Q4 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-stock-market-go-down-by-2-in-any-week-in-q4-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-08T22:28:46.438189Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T12:47:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T15:12:12.742660Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-09T12:48:05.746990Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:48:23.081733Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39843, "title": "Will the US stock market go down by more than 2% in any week in the 4th quarter of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-08T22:28:46.438590Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-14T12:47:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-14T12:47:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-10T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-10T23:03:29.956419Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-10T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n\n> The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n\n> Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\nWeekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n\n| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n| ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n| 10/08/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | 0.29% |\n| 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n| 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n| 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n| 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n| 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n| 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n| 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n| 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n| 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n| 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n| 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n| 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n| 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n| 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n| 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n| 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n| 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n| 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n| 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n| 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n| 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n| 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n| 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n| 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n| 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n| 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n| 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n| 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n| 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n| 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n| 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n| 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n| 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n| 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n| 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n| 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n| 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n| 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n| 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n| 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -2% in any calendar week after September 30, 2025 before January 1, 2026. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1wk) data. ", "fine_print": "The formula used will be: $\\text{Trading Week Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Week}_\\text{close}}{\\text{Week}_\\text{Open}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the week beginning Monday September 29, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had an Open price of 6,661.58 and a Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,661.58 - 1) \\* 100% = 0.81%. \n\nIf Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.\n\nStock market holidays will not affect resolution. For example, Thursday, December 25 is a scheduled holiday for Christmas. Therefore, for purposes of this question the four-day week will be considered to be a complete week.", "post_id": 40291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760101812.489197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760101812.489197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6038992500353408 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3460657558425577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.13653582796629604, "peer_score": -0.00839644148422234, "coverage": 0.002752995139247976, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9868569909157576, "spot_peer_score": 4.673416983433165, "spot_baseline_score": 35.61438102252753, "baseline_archived_score": 0.13653582796629604, "peer_archived_score": -0.00839644148422234, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.673416983433165, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 35.61438102252753 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n\n> The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n\n> Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\nWeekly base rate information can be found [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1seDnVwcbZFv-jRrSP0LVtHB1caMpCHmMIqSmlgZ1wpI/edit?gid=133887029#gid=133887029) and [here](https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx/download-data?mod=mw_quote_tab). In the year to date, weekly returns have been:  \n\n| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Change % |\n| ---------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- | -------- |\n| 10/08/2025 | 6,733.86 | 6,755.64 | 6,699.96 | 6,753.72 | 0.29% |\n| 10/03/2025 | 6,661.58 | 6,750.87 | 6,641.00 | 6,715.79 | 0.81% |\n| 09/26/2025 | 6,654.28 | 6,699.52 | 6,569.22 | 6,643.70 | -0.16% |\n| 09/19/2025 | 6,603.49 | 6,671.82 | 6,551.15 | 6,664.36 | 0.92% |\n| 09/12/2025 | 6,498.09 | 6,600.21 | 6,483.08 | 6,584.29 | 1.33% |\n| 09/05/2025 | 6,401.51 | 6,532.65 | 6,360.58 | 6,481.50 | 1.25% |\n| 08/29/2025 | 6,457.67 | 6,508.23 | 6,429.21 | 6,460.26 | 0.04% |\n| 08/22/2025 | 6,445.02 | 6,478.89 | 6,343.86 | 6,466.91 | 0.34% |\n| 08/15/2025 | 6,389.67 | 6,481.34 | 6,364.06 | 6,449.80 | 0.94% |\n| 08/08/2025 | 6,271.71 | 6,395.16 | 6,271.71 | 6,389.45 | 1.88% |\n| 08/01/2025 | 6,397.69 | 6,427.02 | 6,212.69 | 6,238.01 | -2.50% |\n| 07/25/2025 | 6,304.74 | 6,395.82 | 6,281.71 | 6,388.64 | 1.33% |\n| 07/18/2025 | 6,255.15 | 6,315.61 | 6,201.59 | 6,296.79 | 0.67% |\n| 07/11/2025 | 6,259.04 | 6,290.22 | 6,201.00 | 6,259.75 | 0.01% |\n| 07/03/2025 | 6,193.36 | 6,284.65 | 6,174.97 | 6,279.35 | 1.39% |\n| 06/27/2025 | 5,969.67 | 6,187.68 | 5,943.23 | 6,173.07 | 3.41% |\n| 06/20/2025 | 6,004.00 | 6,050.83 | 5,952.56 | 5,967.84 | -0.60% |\n| 06/13/2025 | 6,004.63 | 6,059.40 | 5,963.21 | 5,976.97 | -0.46% |\n| 06/06/2025 | 5,896.68 | 6,016.87 | 5,861.43 | 6,000.36 | 1.76% |\n| 05/30/2025 | 5,854.07 | 5,943.13 | 5,843.66 | 5,991.69 | 2.35% |\n| 05/23/2025 | 5,902.88 | 5,968.61 | 5,767.41 | 5,802.82 | -1.70% |\n| 05/16/2025 | 5,807.20 | 5,958.62 | 5,786.08 | 5,958.38 | 2.60% |\n| 05/09/2025 | 5,655.32 | 5,720.10 | 5,578.64 | 5,659.91 | 0.08% |\n| 05/02/2025 | 5,529.22 | 5,700.70 | 5,433.24 | 5,686.67 | 2.85% |\n| 04/25/2025 | 5,232.94 | 5,528.11 | 5,101.63 | 5,525.21 | 5.59% |\n| 04/17/2025 | 5,441.96 | 5,459.46 | 5,220.79 | 5,282.70 | -2.93% |\n| 04/11/2025 | 4,953.79 | 5,481.34 | 4,835.04 | 5,363.36 | 8.27% |\n| 04/04/2025 | 5,527.91 | 5,695.31 | 5,069.90 | 5,074.08 | -8.21% |\n| 03/28/2025 | 5,718.08 | 5,786.95 | 5,572.42 | 5,580.94 | -2.40% |\n| 03/21/2025 | 5,635.60 | 5,715.33 | 5,597.76 | 5,667.56 | 0.57% |\n| 03/14/2025 | 5,705.37 | 5,705.37 | 5,504.65 | 5,638.94 | -1.16% |\n| 03/07/2025 | 5,968.33 | 5,986.09 | 5,666.29 | 5,770.20 | -3.32% |\n| 02/28/2025 | 6,026.69 | 6,043.65 | 5,837.66 | 5,954.50 | -1.20% |\n| 02/21/2025 | 6,121.60 | 6,147.43 | 6,008.56 | 6,013.13 | -1.77% |\n| 02/14/2025 | 6,046.40 | 6,127.47 | 6,003.00 | 6,114.63 | 1.13% |\n| 02/07/2025 | 5,969.65 | 6,101.28 | 5,923.93 | 6,025.99 | 0.94% |\n| 01/31/2025 | 5,969.04 | 6,120.91 | 5,962.92 | 6,040.53 | 1.20% |\n| 01/24/2025 | 6,014.12 | 6,128.18 | 6,006.88 | 6,101.24 | 1.45% |\n| 01/17/2025 | 5,782.02 | 6,014.96 | 5,773.31 | 5,996.66 | 3.71% |\n| 01/10/2025 | 5,982.81 | 6,021.04 | 5,807.78 | 5,827.04 | -2.60% |\n| 01/03/2025 | 5,920.67 | 5,949.34 | 5,829.53 | 5,942.47 | 0.37% |" }, { "id": 40289, "title": "Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Will the US stock market crash by >10% in any week before January 1, 2027?", "url_title": "Will the US stock market crash by >10% in any week before January 1, 2027?", "slug": "will-the-us-stock-market-crash-by-10-in-any-week-before-january-1-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-08T20:24:10.518657Z", "published_at": "2025-10-10T21:03:41Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:35:16.221767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-10T21:03:47.584023Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-11T21:03:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39841, "title": "Will the US stock market crash by more than 10% in any 5-day trading period before January 1, 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-08T20:24:10.519033Z", "open_time": "2025-10-11T21:03:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-15T21:03:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-15T21:03:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n\n> The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n\n> Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\nHistorical base rate information (based on open prices) can be viewed [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o37UAZYKT--JzVLKICwgbC8vkZjV95PEjSgaEloGkeE/edit?usp=sharing).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2027, the S\\&P 500 has a change of less than -10% in any rolling 5 trading day period based on Close prices before January 1, 2027. This question will resolve based on [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?frequency=1d) data. ", "fine_print": "The formula used will be: $\\text{Rolling Change} = (\\frac{\\text{Day}_\\text{i\\_close}}{\\text{Day}_\\text{i-5\\_Close}} - 1) * 100\\%$. For example, the 5-day period beginning Friday September 26, 2025 and ended Friday October 3, 2025 had a starting Close price of 6,643.70 and an ending Close price of 6,715.79. Thus, the change for the week was (6,715.79 ÷ 6,643.70 - 1) \\* 100% = 1.09%. \n\nIf Yahoo Finance delays or ceases reporting the data, reports the data in error, or is otherwise unavailable, Metaculus might choose an alternative [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) source to resolve this question.", "post_id": 40289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761073929.889012, "end_time": 1763025485.608, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761073929.889012, "end_time": 1763025485.608, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4424770648059523 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Sentinel](https://sentinel-team.org/) forecasting team has [estimated](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/california-ai-bill-passed-trump-tries) a 19% chance of a stock market crash by the end of 2026, which it defines as a >10% reduction in the S\\&P 500 in any week before 2027. According to Sentinel: \n\n> The [University of Michigan’s ](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/)[**Consumer Sentiment Index**](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is near historic lows. The labor market has been [weakening](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fed-vice-chair-jefferson-says-us-job-market-weakening-could-face-stress-2025-09-30/). Meanwhile, the [**S\\&P 500**](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.SPX) **chases all-time highs**, powered by AI investments, even as bond markets are [signaling](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-and-bonds-are-sending-very-different-messages-about-recession-risks-fcd4d248) [risks](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-market-may-be-too-sanguine-about-underlying-fiscal-inflation-risks-2025-09-05/).\n\n> Forecasters estimate a 19% (14% to 30%) probability that the SP 500 will drop more than 10% in any one week by the end of 2026. They point out that the baserate is six times since 1980 ([this list](https://icfs.com/financial-knowledge-center/sp-500-weekly-drops-5), plus COVID and the [2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash) crash). They also point to the [Case-Shiller index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA), a measure of housing valuations, being at all-time highs, suggesting that it has peaked, although a fall might not be precipitous. At least one of our forecasters also sees a small but significant potential for some large-scale shocks to the economy over the coming 1-3 years, potentially from new, large changes in US government policies or a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.\n\nHistorical base rate information (based on open prices) can be viewed [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1o37UAZYKT--JzVLKICwgbC8vkZjV95PEjSgaEloGkeE/edit?usp=sharing)." }, { "id": 40287, "title": "Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?", "short_title": "New Glenn 2025 successful landing", "url_title": "New Glenn 2025 successful landing", "slug": "new-glenn-2025-successful-landing", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-08T18:09:02.790065Z", "published_at": "2025-10-10T16:12:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:11:55.087561Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-10T16:16:01.765276Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 106, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:30:42.680484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:30:42.680484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39839, "title": "Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?", "created_at": "2025-10-08T18:09:02.790462Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-17T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-17T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "New Glenn is Blue Origin’s large, partially reusable orbital rocket. The first stage is designed to return and land on a sea-based platform for reuse. On its first orbital launch (on Jan 16, 2025) New Glenn reached orbit, however the booster [was not recovered](https://www.blueorigin.com/fr-FR/news/new-glenn-ng-1-mission?utm_source=chatgpt.com) after a landing attempt.\n\nBlue Origin's very [cautious approach](https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-836412) stands in contrast to SpaceX's much faster \"fail to learn\" and they are now far behind in term of public progress in all categories of rockets. Their approach also makes every new flight much more crucial than SpaceX's since, with subsequent flights waiting up to a year, a failure will cause a much bigger setback.\n\nBlue Origin is now targeting another landing attempt, with a booster named \"Never Tell Me the Odds\" [later in 2025](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/the-second-new-glenn-rolls-to-the-launch-pad-and-they-expect-to-recover-this-one/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if during 2025 Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket in which the first stage performs a successful landing.", "fine_print": "If Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket during 2025 but the successful landing takes place during 2026, this question will still resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 40287, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761295404.165356, "end_time": 1761332945.822, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761295404.165356, "end_time": 1761332945.822, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.407648165765579 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 261, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "New Glenn is Blue Origin’s large, partially reusable orbital rocket. The first stage is designed to return and land on a sea-based platform for reuse. On its first orbital launch (on Jan 16, 2025) New Glenn reached orbit, however the booster [was not recovered](https://www.blueorigin.com/fr-FR/news/new-glenn-ng-1-mission?utm_source=chatgpt.com) after a landing attempt.\n\nBlue Origin's very [cautious approach](https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-836412) stands in contrast to SpaceX's much faster \"fail to learn\" and they are now far behind in term of public progress in all categories of rockets. Their approach also makes every new flight much more crucial than SpaceX's since, with subsequent flights waiting up to a year, a failure will cause a much bigger setback.\n\nBlue Origin is now targeting another landing attempt, with a booster named \"Never Tell Me the Odds\" [later in 2025](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/the-second-new-glenn-rolls-to-the-launch-pad-and-they-expect-to-recover-this-one/). " }, { "id": 40285, "title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "slug": "will-ukraine-extend-martial-law-beyond-november-5-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:42.242472Z", "published_at": "2025-10-13T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-13T17:00:00.438690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:42.487506Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-13T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39837, "title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:42.243010Z", "open_time": "2025-10-13T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared [martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Ukraine#2022_martial_law) in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began earlier that day. As the [ensuing war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) has dragged on, the government has extended martial law [16 times](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-prolongs-martial-law-mobilization-1752577500.html). (At first, each declaration of martial law was good for thirty days, but since May 2022, martial law has been extended for 90-day periods.)\n\nOne consequence of this lengthy period of martial law is that national elections, which would have occurred [in 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), have been postponed indefinitely. Nevertheless, [some observers](https://www.saisjournal.eu/article/98-George-Kent-War-and-Democracy.cfm) argue that the rule of law in Ukraine remains strong.\n\nThe current period of martial law is scheduled to expire on [November 5, 2025](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-signs-extension-of-martial-law-1753442234.html), unless the government again renews it.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40227,\"question_id\":39761}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Ukraine extends martial law beyond November 5, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40285, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760374498.482325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760374498.482325, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8760175216393181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 25.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 9.0, 4.0, 9.0, 16.0, 6.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared [martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Ukraine#2022_martial_law) in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began earlier that day. As the [ensuing war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) has dragged on, the government has extended martial law [16 times](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-prolongs-martial-law-mobilization-1752577500.html). (At first, each declaration of martial law was good for thirty days, but since May 2022, martial law has been extended for 90-day periods.)\n\nOne consequence of this lengthy period of martial law is that national elections, which would have occurred [in 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), have been postponed indefinitely. Nevertheless, [some observers](https://www.saisjournal.eu/article/98-George-Kent-War-and-Democracy.cfm) argue that the rule of law in Ukraine remains strong.\n\nThe current period of martial law is scheduled to expire on [November 5, 2025](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-signs-extension-of-martial-law-1753442234.html), unless the government again renews it.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40227,\"question_id\":39761}}`" }, { "id": 40284, "title": "Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?", "short_title": "French protest with 600k participants before 2026?", "url_title": "French protest with 600k participants before 2026?", "slug": "french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:41.800358Z", "published_at": "2025-10-11T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-11T17:00:00.294844Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:42.046861Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-11T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39836, "title": "Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:41.800777Z", "open_time": "2025-10-11T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n\nAfter a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**", "post_id": 40284, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760201504.026215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.317 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760201504.026215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.317 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.683, 0.317 ], "means": [ 0.33644407074478583 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 11.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 24.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n\nAfter a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587}}`" }, { "id": 40283, "title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "slug": "will-hamas-no-longer-have-any-hostages-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:41.369357Z", "published_at": "2025-10-09T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-09T20:33:54.528582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:41.604572Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39835, "title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-08T17:48:41.369798Z", "open_time": "2025-10-09T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 3, 2025, [Hamas said](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxq7zp7002o) that it would accept key elements of a White House plan, including releasing all Israeli hostages. According to the BBC\n\n> The Hamas statement did not specifically mention or accept Trump's 20-point plan but says it \"renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support.\"\n> \n> However the statement makes no mention of one of the key demands of the plan – that Hamas agree to its disarmament and to playing no further role in the governance of Gaza.\n\nPresident Trump told Israel to halt airstrikes pending a deal and threatened that \"all hell would break out\" if Hamas didn't accept the plan by October 5.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40232,\"question_id\":39774}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Hamas has no alive hostages under their control at any point before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve independently of hostages being held by other organisations, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.\n* In cases of ambiguity, this question will resolve according to statements by Hamas.", "post_id": 40283, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760029135.26439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.807526153108254 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760029135.26439, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.807526153108254 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6495248716210468 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 3, 2025, [Hamas said](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxq7zp7002o) that it would accept key elements of a White House plan, including releasing all Israeli hostages. According to the BBC\n\n> The Hamas statement did not specifically mention or accept Trump's 20-point plan but says it \"renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support.\"\n> \n> However the statement makes no mention of one of the key demands of the plan – that Hamas agree to its disarmament and to playing no further role in the governance of Gaza.\n\nPresident Trump told Israel to halt airstrikes pending a deal and threatened that \"all hell would break out\" if Hamas didn't accept the plan by October 5.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40232,\"question_id\":39774}}`" }, { "id": 40267, "title": "Will tooth cavities rise in US states that have removed fluoride in water before 2031?", "short_title": "Tooth cavities rise in state with no fluoridation before 2031?", "url_title": "Tooth cavities rise in state with no fluoridation before 2031?", "slug": "tooth-cavities-rise-in-state-with-no-fluoridation-before-2031", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-07T18:26:19.921984Z", "published_at": "2025-10-17T18:05:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:03:43.853331Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-17T18:05:12.674049Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:05:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T07:59:19.542338Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T07:59:19.542338Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39805, "title": "Will tooth cavities rise in US states that have removed fluoride in water before 2031?", "created_at": "2025-10-07T18:26:19.922388Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T18:05:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T18:05:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T18:05:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Tooth Cavities Rise in US States That Have Removed Fluoride in Water?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-tooth-cavities-rise-in-US-states-that-have-removed-fluoride-in-water)\n\n***\n\nThe [addition of fluoride to public drinking water in the United States began in 1945](https://www.nidcr.nih.gov/health-info/fluoride/the-story-of-fluoridation) when Grand Rapids, Michigan became the first city to intentionally fluoridate its water supply, following research that linked fluoride exposure to significantly reduced tooth decay ([<u>more than 60% among children in long–term studies</u>](https://undark.org/2024/03/06/fluoride-drinking-water/)) and marking the start of a practice later hailed by the CDC as one of the “ten great public health achievements of the 20th century.”\n\nOver the following decades, community water fluoridation expanded widely: by the 1970s it reached nearly half the U.S. population, [<u>climbing higher in subsequent years—reaching around 67% by 2012 and about 72% by 2022</u>](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4547570/). It proved especially impactful in reducing cavities by 40–70% in children and 40–60% in adults in early studies, though more recent analysis attributes more modest declines as high as 25%, [<u>due in part to the availability of fluoride via toothpaste and other sources</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00056796.htm).\n\nDespite these benefits, opposition to fluoridation has persisted, driven by concerns over individual rights, ethics, and potential health risks. [<u>Critics point to disputed studies linking</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_water_fluoridation) fluoride exposure—especially above optimal levels—to adverse effects such as thyroid dysfunction, skeletal fluorosis, and neurodevelopmental issues including lower childhood IQ. [<u>Recent meta‑analyses have also reignited debate</u>](https://www.vox.com/today-explained-newsletter/369470/fluoride-iq-kids-brain-development-toothpaste-water-science-study): one systematic review reports higher fluoride exposure (above 1.5 mg/L) is associated with lower IQ in children, though causation remains unproven and data remain inconclusive at typical U.S. fluoridation levels (around 0.7 mg/L).\n\nPolitical and public sentiment is shifting in some areas: in 2025, [<u>Utah became the first U.S. state to enact a complete ban on public water fluoridation</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fluoridation_in_the_United_States), followed shortly by Florida, as part of a broader movement fueled by concerns over health risks and government overreach.[ ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fluoridation_in_the_United_States?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Proponents warn that removing fluoride could lead to increased dental cavities—particularly among children, rural populations, and low‑income communities who may lack access to dental care—while critics argue that modern preventive tools like fluoride toothpaste may reduce the need for community fluoridation.\n\nThus, whether cavity rates will rise by 2030 in states that remove fluoride remains a contested issue. The outcome will likely depend on balancing the proven preventive benefits of fluoridation—especially for underserved groups—against evolving scientific evidence and concerns over potential risks, within the context of political dynamics and public trust.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2031, a scientific publication shows that there is a statistically significant increase in the prevalence of tooth cavities (dental caries) among the population of any U.S. state that has removed fluoride from its public water supply, compared to the years prior its removal.\n\nThis question will resolve as \"No\" if no U.S. state that has removed fluoride from its water supply records a statistically significant increase in cavity prevalence compared to its pre-removal baseline by the end of 2030.", "fine_print": "* The baseline years for comparison must belong to the last three years in which the state’s public water systems were fluoridated.\n* The rise in cavities must be measured as an increase in the percentage of children, adults, or the general population reporting dental caries.\n* If multiple states have removed fluoride, this question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of them shows a qualifying increase.", "post_id": 40267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761230445.290358, "end_time": 1768786349.537, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761230445.290358, "end_time": 1768786349.537, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7729167200366153 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will Tooth Cavities Rise in US States That Have Removed Fluoride in Water?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-tooth-cavities-rise-in-US-states-that-have-removed-fluoride-in-water)\n\n***\n\nThe [addition of fluoride to public drinking water in the United States began in 1945](https://www.nidcr.nih.gov/health-info/fluoride/the-story-of-fluoridation) when Grand Rapids, Michigan became the first city to intentionally fluoridate its water supply, following research that linked fluoride exposure to significantly reduced tooth decay ([<u>more than 60% among children in long–term studies</u>](https://undark.org/2024/03/06/fluoride-drinking-water/)) and marking the start of a practice later hailed by the CDC as one of the “ten great public health achievements of the 20th century.”\n\nOver the following decades, community water fluoridation expanded widely: by the 1970s it reached nearly half the U.S. population, [<u>climbing higher in subsequent years—reaching around 67% by 2012 and about 72% by 2022</u>](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4547570/). It proved especially impactful in reducing cavities by 40–70% in children and 40–60% in adults in early studies, though more recent analysis attributes more modest declines as high as 25%, [<u>due in part to the availability of fluoride via toothpaste and other sources</u>](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/00056796.htm).\n\nDespite these benefits, opposition to fluoridation has persisted, driven by concerns over individual rights, ethics, and potential health risks. [<u>Critics point to disputed studies linking</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_water_fluoridation) fluoride exposure—especially above optimal levels—to adverse effects such as thyroid dysfunction, skeletal fluorosis, and neurodevelopmental issues including lower childhood IQ. [<u>Recent meta‑analyses have also reignited debate</u>](https://www.vox.com/today-explained-newsletter/369470/fluoride-iq-kids-brain-development-toothpaste-water-science-study): one systematic review reports higher fluoride exposure (above 1.5 mg/L) is associated with lower IQ in children, though causation remains unproven and data remain inconclusive at typical U.S. fluoridation levels (around 0.7 mg/L).\n\nPolitical and public sentiment is shifting in some areas: in 2025, [<u>Utah became the first U.S. state to enact a complete ban on public water fluoridation</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fluoridation_in_the_United_States), followed shortly by Florida, as part of a broader movement fueled by concerns over health risks and government overreach.[ ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_fluoridation_in_the_United_States?utm_source=chatgpt.com)Proponents warn that removing fluoride could lead to increased dental cavities—particularly among children, rural populations, and low‑income communities who may lack access to dental care—while critics argue that modern preventive tools like fluoride toothpaste may reduce the need for community fluoridation.\n\nThus, whether cavity rates will rise by 2030 in states that remove fluoride remains a contested issue. The outcome will likely depend on balancing the proven preventive benefits of fluoridation—especially for underserved groups—against evolving scientific evidence and concerns over potential risks, within the context of political dynamics and public trust." }, { "id": 40259, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?", "short_title": "Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?", "url_title": "Will there be a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-non-h5n1-pandemic-before-2027", "author_id": 280307, "author_username": "Dudleyd444", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-07T11:07:28.665048Z", "published_at": "2025-10-16T10:59:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-23T20:41:39.412794Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-16T11:02:05.822805Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-18T10:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39799, "title": "Will the WHO announce a non-H5N1 pandemic before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-07T11:07:28.665436Z", "open_time": "2025-10-18T10:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-22T10:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-22T10:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T18:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\n> Using their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n> \n> Their results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks. Outbreaks will occur – it’s just a matter of when and where.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, the World Health Organization announces that a disease except the H5N1 flu strain is a pandemic.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40259, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761252088.82593, "end_time": 1763570534.018, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761252088.82593, "end_time": 1763570534.018, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19892191490955466 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\n> Using their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n> \n> Their results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks. Outbreaks will occur – it’s just a matter of when and where." }, { "id": 40253, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "short_title": "Will a non-top-10 player make the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "url_title": "Will a non-top-10 player make the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "slug": "will-a-non-top-10-player-make-the-2025-fide-world-cup-final", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:15.569638Z", "published_at": "2025-10-08T11:05:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-08T12:36:00.143806Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:15.821014Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-08T11:05:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39794, "title": "Will a player outside of the top 10 seeds compete in the 2025 FIDE World Cup final?", "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:15.570082Z", "open_time": "2025-10-08T11:05:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-24T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-08T12:35:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The FIDE World Cup is a large, single-elimination (knockout) chess tournament that forms [a key part of the Candidates/World Championship cycle](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/WorldCup2025Regulations.pdf): the top three finishers in the Open section qualify for the Candidates Tournament.\n\nRounds in the Cup consist of head-to-head matches of two classical games, followed by rapid/blitz/Armageddon tie-breaks when required. The tournament bracket gives the top 50 seeds a bye into round 2, increasing the number of high-variance matches among lower seeds in early rounds.\n\nBecause the World Cup is a knockout event with many matches decided by the shorter time-control tie-breaks, upsets are common and lower-seeded players frequently make deep runs. In [the last edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2023), Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa (seed #31) reached the final and Nijat Abasov (seed #69) came fourth.\n\nThe [2025 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2025) will be held in Goa, India, from 31 October to 27 November 2025, and will feature 206 players.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40032,\"question_id\":39573}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one of the two finalists in the 2025 FIDE Chess World Cup is seeded outside the top 10 according to the official FIDE seeding list [published before the start of the event](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/WorldCup2025Regulations.pdf).", "fine_print": "The seeding list is expected to be based on the October 2025 ratings, meaning that the top 10 seeds would be:\n\n1. Gukesh D (as the world chess champion)\n2. Arjun Erigaisi\n3. R. Praggnanandhaa\n4. Anish Giri\n5. Wesley So\n6. Vincent Keymer\n7. Wei Yi\n8. Nodirbek Abdusattorov\n9. Shakhriyar Mamedyarov\n10. Hans Moke Niemann\n\nHowever, this question will resolve based on the list published by FIDE, even if it differs from the above rankings.", "post_id": 40253, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759926760.546795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759926760.546795, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.631993513454796 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 22.0, 3.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The FIDE World Cup is a large, single-elimination (knockout) chess tournament that forms [a key part of the Candidates/World Championship cycle](https://handbook.fide.com/files/handbook/WorldCup2025Regulations.pdf): the top three finishers in the Open section qualify for the Candidates Tournament.\n\nRounds in the Cup consist of head-to-head matches of two classical games, followed by rapid/blitz/Armageddon tie-breaks when required. The tournament bracket gives the top 50 seeds a bye into round 2, increasing the number of high-variance matches among lower seeds in early rounds.\n\nBecause the World Cup is a knockout event with many matches decided by the shorter time-control tie-breaks, upsets are common and lower-seeded players frequently make deep runs. In [the last edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2023), Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa (seed #31) reached the final and Nijat Abasov (seed #69) came fourth.\n\nThe [2025 edition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chess_World_Cup_2025) will be held in Goa, India, from 31 October to 27 November 2025, and will feature 206 players.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40032,\"question_id\":39573}}`" }, { "id": 40252, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)", "short_title": "Which new company in the S&P500, Q4 2025?", "url_title": "Which new company in the S&P500, Q4 2025?", "slug": "which-new-company-in-the-sp500-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:15.119325Z", "published_at": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T18:30:00.616342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:15.367161Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39793, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (CVNA)", "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:15.119730Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\r\n\r\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\r\n\r\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\r\n\r\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\r\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\r\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\r\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\r\n\r\nFour possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\r\n\r\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\r\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\r\n* [APP (AppLovin Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppLovin) A mobile technology company providing software solutions for mobile app monetization, marketing automation, and in-app advertising optimization.\r\n* [CVNA (Carvana Co.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana) An e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles online, featuring direct-to-consumer delivery and a technology-driven customer experience.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40228,\"question_id\":39765}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'CVNA'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \r\n\r\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if the corresponding company is announced to be officially added to the S\\&P 500 Index before January 1, 2026, according to [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/).", "fine_print": "* Subquestions will resolve based on official announcements from S\\&P Dow Jones Indices that a company will be added. The actual inclusion of the company to the index is not required for resolution.\r\n* Potential retractions or cancellations of an inclusion announcement will not affect the resolution of subquestions.", "post_id": 40252, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\r\n\r\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\r\n\r\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\r\n\r\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\r\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\r\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\r\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\r\n\r\nFour possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\r\n\r\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\r\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\r\n* [APP (AppLovin Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppLovin) A mobile technology company providing software solutions for mobile app monetization, marketing automation, and in-app advertising optimization.\r\n* [CVNA (Carvana Co.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana) An e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles online, featuring direct-to-consumer delivery and a technology-driven customer experience.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40228,\"question_id\":39765}}`" }, { "id": 40249, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)", "short_title": "Which new company in the S&P500, Q4 2025?", "url_title": "Which new company in the S&P500, Q4 2025?", "slug": "which-new-company-in-the-sp500-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:13.436470Z", "published_at": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T18:30:00.474395Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:13.675610Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39790, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (MSTR)", "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:13.436917Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\r\n\r\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\r\n\r\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\r\n\r\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\r\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\r\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\r\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\r\n\r\nFour possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\r\n\r\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\r\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\r\n* [APP (AppLovin Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppLovin) A mobile technology company providing software solutions for mobile app monetization, marketing automation, and in-app advertising optimization.\r\n* [CVNA (Carvana Co.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana) An e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles online, featuring direct-to-consumer delivery and a technology-driven customer experience.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40228,\"question_id\":39763}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'MSTR'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \r\n\r\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if the corresponding company is announced to be officially added to the S\\&P 500 Index before January 1, 2026, according to [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/).", "fine_print": "* Subquestions will resolve based on official announcements from S\\&P Dow Jones Indices that a company will be added. The actual inclusion of the company to the index is not required for resolution.\r\n* Potential retractions or cancellations of an inclusion announcement will not affect the resolution of subquestions.", "post_id": 40249, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\r\n\r\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\r\n\r\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\r\n\r\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\r\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\r\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\r\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\r\n\r\nFour possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\r\n\r\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\r\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\r\n* [APP (AppLovin Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppLovin) A mobile technology company providing software solutions for mobile app monetization, marketing automation, and in-app advertising optimization.\r\n* [CVNA (Carvana Co.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana) An e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles online, featuring direct-to-consumer delivery and a technology-driven customer experience.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40228,\"question_id\":39763}}`" }, { "id": 40246, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)", "short_title": "Which new company in the S&P500, Q4 2025?", "url_title": "Which new company in the S&P500, Q4 2025?", "slug": "which-new-company-in-the-sp500-q4-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:12.010580Z", "published_at": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-06T20:00:00.451634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:12.273027Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39787, "title": "Will the following companies be added to the S&P 500 before 2026? (ARES)", "created_at": "2025-10-06T16:30:12.011075Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T18:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-06T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-06T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\n\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\n\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\n\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\n\nFour possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\n\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\n* [APP (AppLovin Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppLovin) A mobile technology company providing software solutions for mobile app monetization, marketing automation, and in-app advertising optimization.\n* [CVNA (Carvana Co.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana) An e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles online, featuring direct-to-consumer delivery and a technology-driven customer experience.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40228,\"question_id\":39762}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'ARES'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \n\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if the corresponding company is announced to be officially added to the S\\&P 500 Index before January 1, 2026, according to [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://www.spglobal.com/).", "fine_print": "* Subquestions will resolve based on official announcements from S\\&P Dow Jones Indices that a company will be added. The actual inclusion of the company to the index is not required for resolution.\n* Potential retractions or cancellations of an inclusion announcement will not affect the resolution of subquestions.", "post_id": 40246, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759780430.379096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.346 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759780430.379096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.346 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.26874665166201445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 19.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [S\\&P 500 Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. The index is maintained by [S\\&P Dow Jones Indices](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Dow_Jones_Indices), and inclusion decisions are based on factors such as market capitalization, liquidity, financial viability, and sector representation. Current index constituents can be viewed [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies#S\\&P_500_component_stocks).\n\nS\\&P 500 membership is valued by corporations because it indicates success and boosts brand awareness.\n\nTo join S\\&P 500 a company must fulfill the following requirements:\n\n* It must have a market capitalization of at least \\$20.5 billion.\n* It must be domiciled in the U.S.\n* It must be a corporation whose shares are listed on an exchange, such as the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq system, or one of the CBOE exchanges.\n* It can not be a limited partnership, master limited partnership, closed-end fund, limited liability company, special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC.\n\nFour possible candidates to be added to the S\\&P 500 in over the following months are:\n\n* [ARES (Ares Management Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ares_Management) A global alternative investment firm specializing in credit, private equity, real estate, and infrastructure assets.\n* [MSTR (MicroStrategy Incorporated)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MicroStrategy) A business analytics company known for significant investments in Bitcoin as part of its corporate treasury strategy.\n* [APP (AppLovin Corporation)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AppLovin) A mobile technology company providing software solutions for mobile app monetization, marketing automation, and in-app advertising optimization.\n* [CVNA (Carvana Co.)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carvana) An e-commerce platform for buying and selling used vehicles online, featuring direct-to-consumer delivery and a technology-driven customer experience.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40228,\"question_id\":39762}}`" }, { "id": 40242, "title": "By 2030-12-31, will the PRC seek control of TSMC's Taiwan ops (direct or indirect)?", "short_title": "PRC seeks control of TSMC's Taiwan ops", "url_title": "PRC seeks control of TSMC's Taiwan ops", "slug": "prc-seeks-control-of-tsmcs-taiwan-ops", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-06T03:58:14.358329Z", "published_at": "2025-10-06T03:58:14Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T02:13:29.061129Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-06T03:58:36.730186Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T07:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-09T03:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32824, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models", "slug": "ai-geo", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-10-16_at_12.12.07PM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-10-12T17:03:17Z", "close_date": null, 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"range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TSMC in the Global Tech System\n\n* TSMC is the world’s largest contract semiconductor manufacturer. As of 2025, it produces \\~90% of the most advanced nodes (\\<7nm).\n* Annual foundry capacity: \\~16.9M 12-inch wafer equivalents (2024) (Source: [<u>TSMC Annual Report</u>](https://investor.tsmc.com/)).\n* Four GIGAFAB® complexes in Taiwan (Fabs 12, 14, 15, 18) remain the company’s hub.\n\nOverseas Expansion\n\n* Arizona, U.S.: >\\$65B across three fabs under construction (sources: [<u>TSMC Arizona</u>](https://arizona.tsmc.com/), [<u>Bloomberg</u>](https://www.bloomberg.com/)).\n* Kumamoto, Japan: Fab (with Sony) began production in 2024.\n* Dresden, Germany: €10B fab under development, production expected 2026–27.\n\nStrategic Importance & Risks\n\n* PRC leaders view control of TSMC as critical for technological sovereignty, economic leverage, and military application.\n* Taiwan’s “silicon shield” concept suggests the world’s reliance on Taiwan’s chips creates deterrence but also heightens target value (see: [<u>CSIS “Silicon Shield” analysis</u>](https://www.csis.org/)).\n* PRC domestic alternative ([<u>SMIC</u>](https://www.smics.com/)) remains multiple generations behind.\n\nGeopolitical Considerations\n\n* The U.S. maintains “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan but signals defense commitments ([<u>Taiwan Relations Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479)).\n* Analysts have speculated the U.S. might disable TSMC fabs rather than allow PRC seizure (e.g., [<u>RAND</u>](https://www.rand.org/), [<u>Semiconductor Industry Association</u>](https://www.semiconductors.org/)).\n\nEconomic Stakes\n\n* Conflict or seizure could reduce global GDP by 5–10% (Goldman Sachs estimate; widely cited in [<u>Financial Times</u>](https://www.ft.com/)).\n* Semiconductor disruption could freeze entire industries (automotive, AI, defense).", "resolution_criteria": "Note: This is not a Metaculus main feed question and does not count toward leaderboard scoring. It is included in the project [<u>AI and Geopolitics: Resources, Predictions, and Mental Models</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ai-geo/), curated by Yan X. Zhang, Associate Professor of Mathematics and Statistics at San José State University.\n\nThis question resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2030, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) takes an action that, if successful, results in direct or indirect control over TSMC’s Taiwan-based operations.\n\nResolution will be based on the following criteria:\n\n***\n\n## **Resolves YES if any of the following occur (confirmed by at least two independent credible sources):**\n\n1. Military Action\n * A naval or air blockade of Taiwan lasting ≥30 consecutive days (substantially preventing commercial shipping).\n * A sustained missile campaign against Taiwan totaling ≥100 missile strikes within a 7-day period.\n * Amphibious invasion attempt with deployed forces.\n * Air or naval combat operations lasting ≥7 consecutive days.\n * Resources: [<u>Taiwan MOD</u>](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/), [<u>U.S. DoD</u>](https://www.defense.gov/), [<u>Reuters</u>](https://www.reuters.com/).\n2. Cyber Attack on TSMC\n * A cyber operation credibly attributed to the PRC by:\n * Two or more major cybersecurity firms ([<u>Mandiant</u>](https://www.mandiant.com/), [<u>CrowdStrike</u>](https://www.crowdstrike.com/), [<u>Kaspersky</u>](https://www.kaspersky.com/)), OR\n * Taiwan’s [<u>National Security Bureau</u>](https://www.nsb.gov.tw/), OR\n * The U.S. [<u>Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)</u>](https://www.cisa.gov/).\n * Attack halts ≥50% of TSMC’s Taiwan 300mm wafer production for ≥14 consecutive days.\n * “Halt” = involuntary stoppage of production processes (not shipment delays).\n3. Political Transfer of Control\n * Taiwan ceases de facto sovereignty and formally recognizes PRC authority, resulting in PRC control over TSMC.\n * Only applies if change comes through non-electoral means (e.g. coup, revolution, forced agreement).\n * Must be evidenced by official Taiwanese or PRC governmental statements.\n * Resource: [<u>Mainland Affairs Council – Taiwan</u>](https://www.mac.gov.tw/).\n4. Defensive Destruction (ROC/U.S.)\n * The Taiwanese or U.S. government disables/destroys ≥50% of TSMC’s Taiwan fabs.\n * Action must be explicitly justified as to prevent PRC seizure.\n * Source examples: [<u>White House Statements</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/), [<u>Taiwan Presidential Office</u>](https://english.president.gov.tw/).\n\n***\n\n## **Resolves NO if:**\n\n* No qualifying events occur by Dec 31, 2030.\n* Actions are below thresholds or constitute “gray zone” tactics.\n* Examples: drills, minor cyber disruptions, economic coercion, or voluntary fab relocation by TSMC.\n\n## **Additional Notes & Clarifications**\n\n* Geographic Scope: Only TSMC’s Taiwan fabs are relevant. Overseas fabs (Arizona, Kumamoto, Dresden, etc.) are excluded.\n* Attribution: Cyber attribution must be “credible,” consistent with international standards.\n* Early Resolution: Question may resolve YES before 2030 if threshold is clearly met.\n* 50% Threshold: Refers explicitly to Taiwan’s 300mm wafer capacity.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40242, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "TSMC in the Global Tech System\n\n* TSMC is the world’s largest contract semiconductor manufacturer. As of 2025, it produces \\~90% of the most advanced nodes (\\<7nm).\n* Annual foundry capacity: \\~16.9M 12-inch wafer equivalents (2024) (Source: [<u>TSMC Annual Report</u>](https://investor.tsmc.com/)).\n* Four GIGAFAB® complexes in Taiwan (Fabs 12, 14, 15, 18) remain the company’s hub.\n\nOverseas Expansion\n\n* Arizona, U.S.: >\\$65B across three fabs under construction (sources: [<u>TSMC Arizona</u>](https://arizona.tsmc.com/), [<u>Bloomberg</u>](https://www.bloomberg.com/)).\n* Kumamoto, Japan: Fab (with Sony) began production in 2024.\n* Dresden, Germany: €10B fab under development, production expected 2026–27.\n\nStrategic Importance & Risks\n\n* PRC leaders view control of TSMC as critical for technological sovereignty, economic leverage, and military application.\n* Taiwan’s “silicon shield” concept suggests the world’s reliance on Taiwan’s chips creates deterrence but also heightens target value (see: [<u>CSIS “Silicon Shield” analysis</u>](https://www.csis.org/)).\n* PRC domestic alternative ([<u>SMIC</u>](https://www.smics.com/)) remains multiple generations behind.\n\nGeopolitical Considerations\n\n* The U.S. maintains “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan but signals defense commitments ([<u>Taiwan Relations Act</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479)).\n* Analysts have speculated the U.S. might disable TSMC fabs rather than allow PRC seizure (e.g., [<u>RAND</u>](https://www.rand.org/), [<u>Semiconductor Industry Association</u>](https://www.semiconductors.org/)).\n\nEconomic Stakes\n\n* Conflict or seizure could reduce global GDP by 5–10% (Goldman Sachs estimate; widely cited in [<u>Financial Times</u>](https://www.ft.com/)).\n* Semiconductor disruption could freeze entire industries (automotive, AI, defense)." }, { "id": 40238, "title": "Will the U.S. Department of Commerce complete a new census before the 2026 midterms?", "short_title": "New Census before 2026 Midterms", "url_title": "New Census before 2026 Midterms", "slug": "new-census-before-2026-midterms", "author_id": 166726, "author_username": "joebaus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-05T10:31:42.467879Z", "published_at": "2025-10-15T00:47:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:10:19.261984Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-15T00:48:27.277088Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-02T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-16T00:47:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39780, "title": "Will the U.S. Department of Commerce complete a new census before the 2026 midterms?", "created_at": "2025-10-05T10:31:42.468305Z", "open_time": "2025-10-16T00:47:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-20T00:47:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-20T00:47:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-03T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-02T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-02T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Every ten years (in years that end in 0), the United States government conducts a [national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_census). On August 7, 2025, President Donald Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114987220997209419) that he had instructed the Department of Commerce to conduct a mid-decade census. Although the Census Act does expressly [allow for the possibility of a mid-decade census](https://apnews.com/article/trump-census-bureau-immigration-qa-ef07910f8a386eee5fc6a4bf7da8d8f7) (in years that end in 5), one has never previously been conducted. Additionally, the census is typically a massive undertaking that requires years of preparation.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 3, 2026, the U.S. Census Bureau completes a new census.\n\nA census will be deemed \"completed\" when the Census Bureau announces the end of field operations and releases state population counts usable for funding formulas or (if authorized) redistricting.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40238, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761311408.645995, "end_time": 1763416635.942, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761311408.645995, "end_time": 1763416635.942, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2291642215221146 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every ten years (in years that end in 0), the United States government conducts a [national census](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_census). On August 7, 2025, President Donald Trump [posted](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/114987220997209419) that he had instructed the Department of Commerce to conduct a mid-decade census. Although the Census Act does expressly [allow for the possibility of a mid-decade census](https://apnews.com/article/trump-census-bureau-immigration-qa-ef07910f8a386eee5fc6a4bf7da8d8f7) (in years that end in 5), one has never previously been conducted. Additionally, the census is typically a massive undertaking that requires years of preparation." }, { "id": 40232, "title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "slug": "will-hamas-no-longer-have-any-hostages-before-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-04T00:12:27.182542Z", "published_at": "2025-10-04T11:16:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T19:04:17.938020Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-04T11:31:37.436596Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 148, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:30:42.680484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:30:42.680484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39774, "title": "Will Hamas no longer have any hostages before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-10-04T00:12:27.183001Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-09T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T10:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-13T11:58:30.157281Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-13T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 3, 2025, [Hamas said](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxq7zp7002o) that it would accept key elements of a White House plan, including releasing all Israeli hostages. According to the BBC\n\n> The Hamas statement did not specifically mention or accept Trump's 20-point plan but says it \"renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support.\"\n> \n> However the statement makes no mention of one of the key demands of the plan – that Hamas agree to its disarmament and to playing no further role in the governance of Gaza.\n\nPresident Trump told Israel to halt airstrikes pending a deal and threatened that \"all hell would break out\" if Hamas didn't accept the plan by October 5.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Hamas has no alive hostages under their control at any point before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* This question will resolve independently of hostages being held by other organisations, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.\n* In cases of ambiguity, this question will resolve according to statements by Hamas.", "post_id": 40232, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760347870.439137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760347870.439137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.89 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.10999999999999999, 0.89 ], "means": [ 0.8367375140706467 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.00037093083674210204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013645782893394, 0.0, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028374229916521676, 0.0008493257047191695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12378052259604357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6280189347013053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2578206240986794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.051237084302396756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04111875218002038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22915763187427504, 1.0402145577999988, 0.6976045232148063, 0.0010082945531311649, 0.009971818499667707, 0.0, 0.5027813843064985, 0.03955809225357647, 0.9034486857932064, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1060718005355343, 0.0, 0.025874510687245507, 0.028017117501066016, 0.0, 0.04080179679058417, 0.4798203352552923, 0.05174085786968939, 0.19284061539815023, 0.19559412744598992, 1.1498264478198337, 0.34378663185460917, 0.07800161805115473, 0.32915313285583564, 1.0918259126118275, 1.6919827115054438, 0.0, 0.5901127590960287, 0.5997103922659704, 0.22044325364048034, 1.8403133566944372, 0.7150009621631764, 1.5859619253414796, 0.03814939591291599, 1.3790227914601636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.063610408737735, "peer_score": 2.0982194510496597, "coverage": 0.07767379764251725, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996280044428313, "spot_peer_score": 79.99427816993104, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 2.063610408737735, "peer_archived_score": 2.0982194510496597, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 79.99427816993104, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 384, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 3, 2025, [Hamas said](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxq7zp7002o) that it would accept key elements of a White House plan, including releasing all Israeli hostages. According to the BBC\n\n> The Hamas statement did not specifically mention or accept Trump's 20-point plan but says it \"renews its agreement to hand over the administration of the Gaza Strip to a Palestinian body of independents (technocrats), based on Palestinian national consensus and Arab and Islamic support.\"\n> \n> However the statement makes no mention of one of the key demands of the plan – that Hamas agree to its disarmament and to playing no further role in the governance of Gaza.\n\nPresident Trump told Israel to halt airstrikes pending a deal and threatened that \"all hell would break out\" if Hamas didn't accept the plan by October 5." }, { "id": 40227, "title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "slug": "will-ukraine-extend-martial-law-beyond-november-5-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-03T01:50:53.465787Z", "published_at": "2025-10-03T23:34:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:16:29.318174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-03T23:35:43.046045Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:30:42.680484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:30:42.680484Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39761, "title": "Will Ukraine extend martial law beyond November 5, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-03T01:50:53.466276Z", "open_time": "2025-10-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-03T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared [martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Ukraine#2022_martial_law) in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began earlier that day. As the [ensuing war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) has dragged on, the government has extended martial law [16 times](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-prolongs-martial-law-mobilization-1752577500.html). (At first, each declaration of martial law was good for thirty days, but since May 2022, martial law has been extended for 90-day periods.)\n\nOne consequence of this lengthy period of martial law is that national elections, which would have occurred [in 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), have been postponed indefinitely. Nevertheless, [some observers](https://www.saisjournal.eu/article/98-George-Kent-War-and-Democracy.cfm) argue that the rule of law in Ukraine remains strong.\n\nThe current period of martial law is scheduled to expire on [November 5, 2025](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-signs-extension-of-martial-law-1753442234.html), unless the government again renews it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Ukraine extends martial law beyond November 5, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40227, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761297755.833614, "end_time": 1761448129.643, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.996 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761297755.833614, "end_time": 1761448129.643, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.996 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9945279519931426 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 482, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declared [martial law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_law_in_Ukraine#2022_martial_law) in Ukraine on February 24, 2022, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began earlier that day. As the [ensuing war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) has dragged on, the government has extended martial law [16 times](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/ukraine-prolongs-martial-law-mobilization-1752577500.html). (At first, each declaration of martial law was good for thirty days, but since May 2022, martial law has been extended for 90-day periods.)\n\nOne consequence of this lengthy period of martial law is that national elections, which would have occurred [in 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Ukrainian_parliamentary_election), have been postponed indefinitely. Nevertheless, [some observers](https://www.saisjournal.eu/article/98-George-Kent-War-and-Democracy.cfm) argue that the rule of law in Ukraine remains strong.\n\nThe current period of martial law is scheduled to expire on [November 5, 2025](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-signs-extension-of-martial-law-1753442234.html), unless the government again renews it." }, { "id": 40219, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-government-shutdown-end-before-october-15-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-01T09:06:51.314838Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T09:15:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T07:13:50.175195Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-01T09:15:49.650031Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T07:12:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:48:23.081733Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T11:48:23.081733Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39756, "title": "Will the US government shutdown end before October 15, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-01T09:06:51.315208Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-01T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-15T07:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-15T07:12:59.559861Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-15T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" According to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30, 2025 and before October 15, 2025, US federal agencies in the Washington, DC area have a status of Open, according to the [US Office of Personnel Management](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).\n\nThe question may also resolve according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event of material issues with the main resolution source.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40219, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760493956.538231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], 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0.04853670943862821, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011325021621769293, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.672737717996455, "peer_score": 21.44733418669991, "coverage": 0.9961400322773568, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9961400322773568, "spot_peer_score": 13.450462932563418, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 46.672737717996455, "peer_archived_score": 21.44733418669991, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.450462932563418, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 242, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US federal goverment [shut down ](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-congress-senate-vote/)on October 1, 2025 at midnight, as Congress [failed](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/01/government-shutdown-deadline-midnight-00588906) to pass an appropriations bill or continuing resolution keeping going government operations considered \"[non-essential](https://natlawreview.com/article/what-it-means-be-essential-federal-workforce).\" According to [Government Executive](https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2025/09/just-23-fed-workers-would-be-furloughed-if-government-shuts-down-under-trump-administrations-plan/408505/): \n\n> Federal employees funded through mechanisms other than annual appropriations, as well as those necessary to protect life and property, are considered either “exempted” or “excepted” and work throughout shutdowns on only the promise of backpay. The rest of employees are sent home on furlough without pay, though, following the record-setting 35-day shutdown in 2018 and 2019, those workers are now also guaranteed backpay.\n\n> All told, agencies plan to furlough around 547,000 employees, while around 1.57 million would continue working.\n\nPrevious goverment shutdowns have had the following durations:\n\n| Dates | Days | Wikipedia link |\n| --------------------------- | ---: | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| May 1, 1980 | 1 | [1980 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 23, 1981 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 4, 1984 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 17, 1986 | 1 | [1981, 1984, and 1986 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1981%2C_1984%2C_and_1986_U.S._federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 6–8, 1990 | 3 | [1990 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Nov 14–19, 1995 | 5 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Dec 16, 1995 – Jan 6, 1996 | 21 | [1995–1996 U.S. federal government shutdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995%E2%80%931996_United_States_federal_government_shutdowns) |\n| Oct 1–16, 2013 | 16 | [2013 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Jan 20–22, 2018 | 3 | [January 2018 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_2018_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |\n| Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 25, 2019 | 35 | [2018–2019 U.S. federal government shutdown](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018%E2%80%932019_United_States_federal_government_shutdown) |" }, { "id": 40217, "title": "Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EU import 19+ billion cubic meters of nat gas from Russia in H2 2025?", "url_title": "Will the EU import 19+ billion cubic meters of nat gas from Russia in H2 2025?", "slug": "will-the-eu-import-19-billion-cubic-meters-of-nat-gas-from-russia-in-h2-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T23:07:43.768694Z", "published_at": "2025-10-01T11:15:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T13:09:01.540338Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-01T11:15:52.310433Z", 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"category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39754, "title": "Will the EU import at least 19 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia in the second half of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T23:07:43.769096Z", "open_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-15T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, the European Union has sourced much of its gas from Russia. In 2021 for example, 150.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas out of the 334.3 bcm the EU imported that year came from Russia. In February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. By 2024, the EU's gas imports from Russia had declined by three-quarters, to 51.7 bcm. \n\nIn January 2025, the deal between Ukraine and Russia to allow transit of Russian gas through Ukraine [ceased](https://ecfr.eu/article/breaking-free-why-ending-russian-gas-transit-via-ukraine-strengthens-eu-energy-security/), cutting off a source of 16.5 bcm for 2024. In September 2025, the EU [moved](https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-sanctions-russia-gas-banks-crypto-lng-us-president-donald-trump-war/) to end virtually all imports of gas from Russia in 2026.  ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the amount of natural gas imported by European Union states from Russia tracked by [<u>Bruegel</u>](https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports) is greater than or equal to 19,000 million cubic meters (19 billion cubic meters) for the second half of 2025.", "fine_print": "To view the numbers, scroll down to *Figure 5: EU quarterly imports by source*. The question resolves based on the sum of the Q3 2025 and the Q4 2025 numbers.", "post_id": 40217, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761311331.228623, "end_time": 1761399596.543, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761311331.228623, "end_time": 1761399596.543, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.19772573554294023 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, the European Union has sourced much of its gas from Russia. In 2021 for example, 150.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas out of the 334.3 bcm the EU imported that year came from Russia. In February 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine. By 2024, the EU's gas imports from Russia had declined by three-quarters, to 51.7 bcm. \n\nIn January 2025, the deal between Ukraine and Russia to allow transit of Russian gas through Ukraine [ceased](https://ecfr.eu/article/breaking-free-why-ending-russian-gas-transit-via-ukraine-strengthens-eu-energy-security/), cutting off a source of 16.5 bcm for 2024. In September 2025, the EU [moved](https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-sanctions-russia-gas-banks-crypto-lng-us-president-donald-trump-war/) to end virtually all imports of gas from Russia in 2026.  " }, { "id": 40211, "title": "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?", "short_title": "US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?", "url_title": "US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?", "slug": "us-government-stock-in-semiconductor-companies-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-30T21:04:30.880545Z", "published_at": "2025-10-02T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-02T17:00:00.429198Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-30T21:04:31.237017Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-02T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 100, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T01:31:24.404469Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39748, "title": "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-30T21:04:30.880965Z", "open_time": "2025-10-02T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n\nTSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n\nHowever, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.", "fine_print": "The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 40211, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759423890.919588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1925 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759423890.919588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1925 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3480294305699463 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 3.0, 9.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n\nTSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n\nHowever, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080}}`" } ] }
