Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6657, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 41387, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-dem-house-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.374474Z", "published_at": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-17T07:09:19.628724Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.557458Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32922, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-05", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-05", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-31T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-09T12:17:45Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-03T22:55:58.308597Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T06:14:21.310130Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41102, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 9.00% on 2026-01-14 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-03T23:19:39.374867Z", "open_time": "2026-01-05T19:33:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-14T13:30:06Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-17T07:09:16.511089Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T21:03:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n> \n> If the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.\n\nOriginal background: \n> At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n> \n> On November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35760,\"question_id\":35205,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-14 13:30:06 is higher than 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 9.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-14 13:30:06, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Dem House before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41387, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767645930.304284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767645930.304284, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36252729857819915 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -48.891577540042604, "peer_score": 8.264828809367554, "coverage": 0.9424567983327088, "relative_legacy_score": 0.003270320402232856, "weighted_coverage": 0.9424567983327088, "spot_peer_score": 7.63314282082296, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -48.891577540042604, "peer_archived_score": 8.264828809367554, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.003270320402232856, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.63314282082296, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35760\n- Original question title: Will the Democrats control the House of Representatives at any point before Jan 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-03: 9.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> Resolves **Yes** if at any point before January 3, 2027, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the United States House of Representatives. Resolves **No** if this does not occur. Note that if the number of Democrats only becomes equal to the number of Republicans, it still resolves **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats.\n> \n> If the extremely unlikely event that the date the 120th Congress starts changes, then that will be the new resolution date.\n\nOriginal background: \n> At time of writing, the United States House of Representatives has a 218-215 R majority, and two vacant seats. This is the slimmest majority in the House for any party since the [72nd Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/72nd_United_States_Congress \"72nd United States Congress\") in 1931; in that case, control switched from a 217-216 R majority at the start, to a 220-206 D majority at the end.\n> \n> On November 3, 2026, there will be an election for all sitting Representatives, and some will pass on their seats to their successors on January 3, 2027; this is regarding changes in number of Representatives for both parties that take place *before* January 3, 2027, for any reason. Seats can change parties or become vacant due to things such as resignations, deaths, and special elections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35760,\"question_id\":35205,\"last_cp\":0.09}}`" }, { "id": 41370, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "url_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "slug": "podium-sweep-at-2026-olympics", "author_id": 139876, "author_username": "Perspectus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-02T18:55:07.719000Z", "published_at": "2026-01-02T22:31:55Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T08:58:49.555845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-02T23:09:35.033829Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 147, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:31:49.057395Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32921, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Spring 2026", "slug": "metaculus-cup-spring-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": { "image_url": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/user_uploaded/image_8.png" }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-29T12:43:16.555925Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:31:49.057395Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Metaculus Cup! Forecasting novices and veterans are invited to make predictions on new topical questions each week while c" } }, "question": { "id": 41081, "title": "Will there be at least one podium sweep at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?", "created_at": "2026-01-02T18:55:07.719479Z", "open_time": "2026-01-07T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-22T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at least one podium sweep occurs at the 2026 Winter Olympic Games.\n\nA podium sweep is defined as:\n\n* All three medal positions (gold, silver, bronze) in a single Olympic event being won by athletes representing the same country or designation.", "fine_print": "Podium sweeps achieved by athletes competing under a neutral or independent designation will count as a sweep for that designation if all three medalists share the same designation.\n\nMedal reallocations or disqualifications announced after the conclusion of the Games will not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Podium sweep at 2026 Olympics?", "post_id": 41370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768819469.871, "end_time": 1768857333.981, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768819469.871, "end_time": 1768857333.981, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7885154251114711 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010555929970589165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019741963540957697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10069791938534602, 0.0, 0.04902032594367584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018853158477239212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.163597069633688, 0.0, 0.045751642326449765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1288097344999948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3056860873723735, 0.001844346728308863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002957253875629504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003160651598784178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0956346474600442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2572763612266368, 9.182461665635955e-05, 0.0, 0.00032988184677011515, 0.0, 0.7161588518619568, 0.6409327086579575, 0.3252294647297146, 0.46852408090636827, 0.5707033941605961, 0.40407731846616773, 0.029798412525034228, 0.14568033777281136, 0.8737072189156844, 1.0, 3.609603565933937, 0.6552214559133418, 0.026560824848378583, 0.1807612829233059, 1.3026272599840245, 0.4910996991254185, 0.0, 0.012530991816151986, 1.4235874042751204, 0.006710193312118844, 1.9951517426665788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09935783942421887, 0.7821141948593814, 0.2588883915044657, 0.0, 0.3409274149658343, 0.03704469431060804, 0.497186333174814 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 480, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A podium sweep occurs when athletes from the same country win gold, silver, and bronze in a single Olympic event.\n\nPodium sweeps have become increasingly rare at the Winter Olympics but can occur in disciplines where a country has exceptional depth, such as cross-country skiing, speed skating, alpine skiing, or freestyle skiing.\n\nRecent Winter Olympics illustrate the pattern:\n\n* [2022 Beijing Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 1 podium sweep (Germany)\n* [2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 3 podium sweeps (Netherlands, Norway, Germany)\n* [2014 Sochi Winter Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Winter_Olympics#Podium_sweeps): 8 podium sweeps (Netherlands x4, USA, France, Norway, Russia)\n\nThe 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be held in Milan–Cortina, Italy, from February 6 to 22, 2026. As in past Games, countries such as Norway, Germany, the United States, the Netherlands, and others may field multiple medal contenders in the same events, creating the possibility of podium sweeps." }, { "id": 41367, "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "short_title": "Peloton bankruptcy before 2028?", "url_title": "Peloton bankruptcy before 2028?", "slug": "peloton-bankruptcy-before-2028", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-02T17:53:03.418181Z", "published_at": "2026-01-14T15:30:58Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T05:57:28.681846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-14T15:31:56.794768Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-15T15:30:58Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41078, "title": "Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "created_at": "2026-01-02T17:53:03.418652Z", "open_time": "2026-01-15T15:30:58Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-19T15:30:58Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-19T15:30:58Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://www.onepeloton.com/) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City, USA founded in 2012. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\n\n[The company went public in September 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/business/peloton-raises-12-billion-after-ipo-prices-at-top-of-range-idUSKBN1WA30O/) and raised \\$1.16 billion in its initial public offering after pricing shares at the top end of its target range. [In January 2021](https://companiesmarketcap.com/peloton/marketcap/), Peloton achieved a market capitalization of \\$46.73 billion.\n\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined significantly (from a peak of over \\$167 in January 2021 to under \\$7 per share in January 2026) and has a market capitalization [in January 2026](https://companiesmarketcap.com/peloton/marketcap/) of less than \\$3 billion.\n\nAs reported by [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/24025034/peloton-bike-treadmill-connected-fitness-news), the company has struggled in recent years.\n\n> ... the supply chain issues with monthslong delays for bikes that irked new customers. Then, a disastrous recall affected both of its treadmills: the Tread Plus, because it injured several users and killed a small child, and the regular Tread, which hadn’t even launched yet because of a wobbly screen. And on top of all that, Peloton failed to account for a world reopening after the first covid-19 vaccines were released. Cue layoffs that came with a [free year of membership](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/8/22923480/peloton-severance-package-membership-layoffs), a new CEO, and more gaffes than we can count. Cringey commercials, TV characters dying on their Peloton bikes — you name it.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Peloton Interactive, Inc. files a petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of [the United States Bankruptcy Code](https://www.uscourts.gov/court-programs/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics), before January 1, 2028.", "fine_print": "Only petitions filed by Peloton Interactive, Inc., or a successor entity comprising substantially all of Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s business, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or split-off companies will not count.\n\nThis question resolves based upon the filing of such a petition, not upon whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.", "short_title": "Peloton bankruptcy before 2028?", "post_id": 41367, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Peloton Interactive, Inc.](https://www.onepeloton.com/) is an American exercise equipment and media company based in New York City, USA founded in 2012. Peloton's main products are internet-connected stationary bicycles and treadmills that enable monthly subscribers to remotely participate in classes via streaming media.\n\n[The company went public in September 2019](https://www.reuters.com/article/business/peloton-raises-12-billion-after-ipo-prices-at-top-of-range-idUSKBN1WA30O/) and raised \\$1.16 billion in its initial public offering after pricing shares at the top end of its target range. [In January 2021](https://companiesmarketcap.com/peloton/marketcap/), Peloton achieved a market capitalization of \\$46.73 billion.\n\nSince that time, the company's stock has declined significantly (from a peak of over \\$167 in January 2021 to under \\$7 per share in January 2026) and has a market capitalization [in January 2026](https://companiesmarketcap.com/peloton/marketcap/) of less than \\$3 billion.\n\nAs reported by [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/24025034/peloton-bike-treadmill-connected-fitness-news), the company has struggled in recent years.\n\n> ... the supply chain issues with monthslong delays for bikes that irked new customers. Then, a disastrous recall affected both of its treadmills: the Tread Plus, because it injured several users and killed a small child, and the regular Tread, which hadn’t even launched yet because of a wobbly screen. And on top of all that, Peloton failed to account for a world reopening after the first covid-19 vaccines were released. Cue layoffs that came with a [free year of membership](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/8/22923480/peloton-severance-package-membership-layoffs), a new CEO, and more gaffes than we can count. Cringey commercials, TV characters dying on their Peloton bikes — you name it." }, { "id": 41356, "title": "Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?", "short_title": "US utility $5B+ capex for data centers in early 2026?", "url_title": "US utility $5B+ capex for data centers in early 2026?", "slug": "us-utility-5b-capex-for-data-centers-in-early-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-31T01:33:24.144324Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:53:05.725801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:12:26.634572Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 750, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41056, "title": "Will any US electric utility announce a $5 billion capex increase, citing data center demand, between January 13 and March 12, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-31T01:33:24.144793Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/business/energy-environment/senate-democrats-electricity-prices-data-centers.html) in December 2025:\n\n> After roughly 20 years of flat or minimal growth in U.S. electricity demand, power needs are rising and are expected to surge in the next several decades.\n\n Since the [AI boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom) accelerated with the 2022 launch of ChatGPT, there has been a great expansion in power-hungry data centers housing the hardware that runs AI:\n\n> The large, boxy data center buildings filled with computer servers consumed more than 4 percent of the nation’s electricity in 2023. Government [analysts estimate](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-new-report-evaluating-increase-electricity-demand-data-centers#:~:text=The%20report%20finds%20that%20data,total%20U.S.%20electricity%20by%202028.) that will increase to as much as 12 percent in just three years. That’s because computers that train A.I. systems [consume much more electricity](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/16/technology/ai-data-centers.html) than those used for popular internet services like Netflix or TikTok.\n\n> To meet that demand, energy companies have rushed to build more power plants and power lines.\n\nIn 2025, five-year plan capex increases of at least \\$5 billion, with data center electricity demand as the driver of the increased spending, were announced by the following electric utility companies: \n\n* February 12, 2025: Dominion Energy [announces](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4406911-dominion-energy-hikes-five-year-capex-plan-ahead-of-anticipated-datacenter-power-demand) an increase of almost \\$7 billion, due to data centers contracting 19 GW.\n* February 13, 2025: Duke Energy [raises](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-raises-five-capex-122118418.html) its capex plan by about \\$10 billion \"to accommodate rising demand from population growth in the U.S. Southeast and the expansion of data centers and advanced manufacturing, the company said.\"\n* July 30, 2025: AEP [says](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806289-american-electric-power-company-aep-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript) it will increase capex spending by \\$16 billion, driven by large commercial customers including data centers.\n* October 29, 2025: NiSource Enery in its earnings [release](https://www.nisource.com/news/article/nisource-announces-third-quarter-results): \"Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of \\$28.0 billion, inclusive of \\~\\$7.0 billion of capital investment related to data centers\"\n* Octomber 31, 2025: Xcel Energy [announces](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xcel-energy-rolls-60-billion-090000008.html) a \\$15 billion increase in its 5-year capex plan, according to the CEO, “Making sure that we can deliver a cleaner energy product as well as a highly reliable and highly affordable product is very strategic as we approach economic development with data centers.”\n* December 4, 2025: DTE Energy in its [Business Update](https://s24.q4cdn.com/970999156/files/doc_presentations/2025/12/DTE-Business-Update-12-5-25-FINAL.pdf) page 4 says: \"Data center development and investments in reliability and cleaner generation drive a \\$6.5 billion increase to our 5-year capital investment plan\"\n\n ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before March 13, 2026 ET, an electric utility company in the United States announces:\n\n* a planned future increase in capital expenditures of at least \\$5 billion relative to its previous plan or guidance \n* over a period of 5 years or fewer\n* with demand from data center customers cited as a factor in the increased spending. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, an \"electric utility company\" is any company whose primary business is providing electricity [transmission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission) or [distribution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_distribution) services; note that it can also own or operate electric [generation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_generation) assets. \n\nAn example of an announcement that would count is American Electric Power's CEO William Fehrman saying in the company's Q2 2025 earnings [conference call ](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806289-american-electric-power-company-aep-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript)on July 30, 2025 that AEP would have \\$16 billion in increased spending in its 5-year capital plan \"driven primarily by data centers\" among other factors. (See also [Utility Dive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/aep-data-centers-texas-ercot-crypto-pjm/756491/).)", "short_title": "US utility $5B+ capex for data centers in early 2026?", "post_id": 41356, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1178, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/16/business/energy-environment/senate-democrats-electricity-prices-data-centers.html) in December 2025:\n\n> After roughly 20 years of flat or minimal growth in U.S. electricity demand, power needs are rising and are expected to surge in the next several decades.\n\n Since the [AI boom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_boom) accelerated with the 2022 launch of ChatGPT, there has been a great expansion in power-hungry data centers housing the hardware that runs AI:\n\n> The large, boxy data center buildings filled with computer servers consumed more than 4 percent of the nation’s electricity in 2023. Government [analysts estimate](https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-releases-new-report-evaluating-increase-electricity-demand-data-centers#:~:text=The%20report%20finds%20that%20data,total%20U.S.%20electricity%20by%202028.) that will increase to as much as 12 percent in just three years. That’s because computers that train A.I. systems [consume much more electricity](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/16/technology/ai-data-centers.html) than those used for popular internet services like Netflix or TikTok.\n\n> To meet that demand, energy companies have rushed to build more power plants and power lines.\n\nIn 2025, five-year plan capex increases of at least \\$5 billion, with data center electricity demand as the driver of the increased spending, were announced by the following electric utility companies: \n\n* February 12, 2025: Dominion Energy [announces](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4406911-dominion-energy-hikes-five-year-capex-plan-ahead-of-anticipated-datacenter-power-demand) an increase of almost \\$7 billion, due to data centers contracting 19 GW.\n* February 13, 2025: Duke Energy [raises](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/duke-energy-raises-five-capex-122118418.html) its capex plan by about \\$10 billion \"to accommodate rising demand from population growth in the U.S. Southeast and the expansion of data centers and advanced manufacturing, the company said.\"\n* July 30, 2025: AEP [says](https://seekingalpha.com/article/4806289-american-electric-power-company-aep-q2-2025-earnings-call-transcript) it will increase capex spending by \\$16 billion, driven by large commercial customers including data centers.\n* October 29, 2025: NiSource Enery in its earnings [release](https://www.nisource.com/news/article/nisource-announces-third-quarter-results): \"Announcing consolidated capital expenditure plan of \\$28.0 billion, inclusive of \\~\\$7.0 billion of capital investment related to data centers\"\n* Octomber 31, 2025: Xcel Energy [announces](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xcel-energy-rolls-60-billion-090000008.html) a \\$15 billion increase in its 5-year capex plan, according to the CEO, “Making sure that we can deliver a cleaner energy product as well as a highly reliable and highly affordable product is very strategic as we approach economic development with data centers.”\n* December 4, 2025: DTE Energy in its [Business Update](https://s24.q4cdn.com/970999156/files/doc_presentations/2025/12/DTE-Business-Update-12-5-25-FINAL.pdf) page 4 says: \"Data center development and investments in reliability and cleaner generation drive a \\$6.5 billion increase to our 5-year capital investment plan\"\n\n " }, { "id": 41343, "title": "Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "High-end GPUs to be exported to China by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "High-end GPUs to be exported to China by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "high-end-gpus-to-be-exported-to-china-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-29T02:09:12.670959Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:46:33.819585Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:15:34.792328Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 907, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41045, "title": "Will any NVIDIA GPUs better than the H200 be allowed to be exported to China before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-29T02:09:12.671397Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In October 2022, the US Department of Commerce enacted [export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China) to limit the People's Republic of China's access to advanced computing chips and semiconductors, citing national security and foreign policy concerns. Initially, these rules were not aimed at restricting China's capacity to train large language models. However, they directly restricted the class of high-end GPUs that subsequently became central to generative AI, leading to an eventual shift in the controls' focus to encompass such issues.\n\nIn response to these restrictions, NVIDIA repeatedly designed China-specific variants of its chips that complied with the export controls. These initially included the A800 and H800 chips, which were later banned [after an update to the export regulations](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-may-be-forced-shift-out-some-countries-after-new-us-export-curbs-2023-10-17/), and then the H20, which was [only briefly restricted in early 2025](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-licenses-nvidia-export-chips-china-official-says-2025-08-08/). In late 2025, [reporting indicated](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-block-nvidias-sale-scaled-back-ai-chips-china-information-says-2025-11-07/) the US planned to block a new, highly capable China-specific chip referred to as B30A. Subsequently, however, President Trump announced, in a policy shift, that the US would permit [exports of the powerful H200 chip to China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-aims-begin-h200-chip-shipments-china-by-mid-february-sources-say-2025-12-22/), subject to a 25% fee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before March 14, 2026 ET, the US government publicly states that it will permit any Nvidia GPU that is better than the H200 to be exported to mainland China.\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if such GPUs are directly exported to mainland China, without [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting that the export violated US export controls or that the US government is taking enforcement action relating to those exports, before March 14, 2026 ET.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, \"better than H200\" is defined as any GPU with both:\n\n* a peak FP8 Tensor Core throughput (including sparsity) higher than 4 petaFLOPS\n\nand\n\n* an HBM bandwidth of at least 4.8 TB/s.", "fine_print": "* \"The US government publicly states\" includes a statement by the sitting US President on a personally controlled account (e.g., Truth Social) that is treated as credible, even if no agency issues a formal notice.\n* Statements that indicate that exports will be permitted in the future have to include a specific date within 2026. Vague time periods (e.g. \"in a few months\") do not qualify.\n* Statements that do not clearly indicate exports will be permitted (e.g., “considering,” “discussing,” “investigating”) do not count.", "short_title": "High-end GPUs to be exported to China by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41343, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768823183.107775, "end_time": 1768873327.917, "forecaster_count": 905, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.044 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768823183.107775, "end_time": 1768873327.917, "forecaster_count": 905, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.044 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.956, 0.044 ], "means": [ 0.10339584357622524 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.620433726145531, 2.674996771921019, 2.947829378732384, 3.66123424042793, 10.322274278741547, 5.818578585392141, 2.571117809997176, 0.631063780138162, 2.1539777262274185, 1.3378856083149508, 3.5673716010142487, 0.15726359293565112, 0.061754411332801046, 0.5083866838674969, 0.5978145650750168, 0.9616233009121156, 0.0002787635389964667, 0.01720024240727385, 3.4057015341144614e-06, 0.23502516101965665, 0.7670373844006506, 1.4570139617268133e-06, 0.46020231055006006, 0.00020889575524007955, 0.008521382567675009, 1.098471078637731, 0.3270804365051936, 0.005410298101231819, 0.9113032405762824, 0.0, 1.1275837271430706, 0.0, 0.022308698380947352, 0.22838374181006346, 0.615130561192389, 3.194076156276031e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007202597872619246, 1.340980679163193e-07, 4.494383091182767e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28973141465748303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005909881407511648, 0.015031633375467581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016956345185790294, 2.929676409902881e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03420623351908157, 5.2250061147865474e-05, 0.40199581226922815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012366862471697609, 1.6363488553716463e-10, 0.0, 0.0030479004269940097, 0.0010644278696805441, 0.8948353590540277, 0.310505605888361, 0.0, 0.03875861711963763, 0.00035362473002104787, 4.273101369204637e-08, 4.094448832142329e-11, 0.0, 0.4609267540758836, 0.0, 0.06872397043564572, 1.6536548378913286e-08, 2.2447067828403972e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.26288577641491e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2665491319568975e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15691837928280042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5600124175527261 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1659, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In October 2022, the US Department of Commerce enacted [export controls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_New_Export_Controls_on_Advanced_Computing_and_Semiconductors_to_China) to limit the People's Republic of China's access to advanced computing chips and semiconductors, citing national security and foreign policy concerns. Initially, these rules were not aimed at restricting China's capacity to train large language models. However, they directly restricted the class of high-end GPUs that subsequently became central to generative AI, leading to an eventual shift in the controls' focus to encompass such issues.\n\nIn response to these restrictions, NVIDIA repeatedly designed China-specific variants of its chips that complied with the export controls. These initially included the A800 and H800 chips, which were later banned [after an update to the export regulations](https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-may-be-forced-shift-out-some-countries-after-new-us-export-curbs-2023-10-17/), and then the H20, which was [only briefly restricted in early 2025](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-licenses-nvidia-export-chips-china-official-says-2025-08-08/). In late 2025, [reporting indicated](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-block-nvidias-sale-scaled-back-ai-chips-china-information-says-2025-11-07/) the US planned to block a new, highly capable China-specific chip referred to as B30A. Subsequently, however, President Trump announced, in a policy shift, that the US would permit [exports of the powerful H200 chip to China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-aims-begin-h200-chip-shipments-china-by-mid-february-sources-say-2025-12-22/), subject to a 25% fee." }, { "id": 41340, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "short_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "url_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "slug": "beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2028", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-28T20:27:37.183418Z", "published_at": "2026-01-01T07:08:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T04:37:19.036213Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-01T07:09:11.989973Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-02T07:08:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32926, "name": "2026-2027 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_2027_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41040, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2028?", "created_at": "2025-12-28T20:27:37.183834Z", "open_time": "2026-01-02T07:08:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-06T07:08:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-06T07:08:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. \n\n> [As of December 2024](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001655210/000165521025000034/bynd-20241231.htm), Beyond Meat branded products were available at approximately 129,000 retail and foodservice outlets in more than 65 countries worldwide, across mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser, club store and natural retailer channels, and various food-away-from-home channels, including restaurants, foodservice outlets and schools.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of \\$14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has significantly declined to less than \\$1 per share, leaving the company with a market capitalization of \\$400 million [in December 2025](https://companiesmarketcap.com/beyond-meat/marketcap/).\n\nAs reported by [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/retail/bankruptcy-watch-beyond-meat-shares-new-financial-woes) (a US financial news website):\n\n> Beyond Meat has been struggling as it faces increased competition and dwindling demand for its plant-based meat products.\n\n> “The company’s overall Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 1.03, labeled as WEAK, highlighting the significant challenges ahead. The company, known for its innovative approach to creating meat substitutes from plant-based ingredients, has recently faced a series of setbacks that have prompted analysts to adopt a cautious stance on its stock,” according to [InvestingPro analysis](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/beyond-meats-swot-analysis-plantbased-pioneer-faces-uphill-battle-93CH-4189732).\n\nHowever,\n\n> Beyond Meat has fully denied that it’s at risk of running out of cash. “Your story suggesting that Beyond Meat filed for bankruptcy is unequivocally false. We have not filed nor are we planning to file for bankruptcy,” the company shared in an email to TheStreet.\n\nNevertheless the long-term future of Beyond Meat, Inc. remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Beyond Meat, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of [the United States Bankruptcy Code](https://www.uscourts.gov/court-programs/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics), before January 1, 2028. ", "fine_print": "Only petitions filed by Beyond Meat, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of Beyond Meat, Inc.'s business, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or split-off companies will not qualify.\n\nThis question resolves based upon the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court.", "short_title": "Beyond Meat bankruptcy before 2028?", "post_id": 41340, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768797428.415713, "end_time": 1775121198.929, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768797428.415713, "end_time": 1775121198.929, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6140000480816048 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09721220349958049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8424102383297627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.314326790937948, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.152619743638388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6948473529181747 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Beyond Meat, Inc.](https://www.beyondmeat.com/en-US/) is a Los Angeles–based producer of plant-based meat substitutes founded in 2009. The company's initial products were launched in the United States in 2012. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, pork, and poultry categories. \n\n> [As of December 2024](https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001655210/000165521025000034/bynd-20241231.htm), Beyond Meat branded products were available at approximately 129,000 retail and foodservice outlets in more than 65 countries worldwide, across mainstream grocery, mass merchandiser, club store and natural retailer channels, and various food-away-from-home channels, including restaurants, foodservice outlets and schools.\n\nThe company went public in May 2019 to much fanfare, [becoming the first vegan meat alternative company to trade on the US stock market](https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/one-year-on-how-beyond-meats-ipo-changed-plant-based-meat-forever/), and achieved a market capitalization of \\$14.14 billion [in July 2019.](https://ycharts.com/companies/BYND/market_cap)\n\nHowever, since that time, the company's stock price has significantly declined to less than \\$1 per share, leaving the company with a market capitalization of \\$400 million [in December 2025](https://companiesmarketcap.com/beyond-meat/marketcap/).\n\nAs reported by [TheStreet](https://www.thestreet.com/retail/bankruptcy-watch-beyond-meat-shares-new-financial-woes) (a US financial news website):\n\n> Beyond Meat has been struggling as it faces increased competition and dwindling demand for its plant-based meat products.\n\n> “The company’s overall Financial Health Score stands at a concerning 1.03, labeled as WEAK, highlighting the significant challenges ahead. The company, known for its innovative approach to creating meat substitutes from plant-based ingredients, has recently faced a series of setbacks that have prompted analysts to adopt a cautious stance on its stock,” according to [InvestingPro analysis](https://www.investing.com/news/swot-analysis/beyond-meats-swot-analysis-plantbased-pioneer-faces-uphill-battle-93CH-4189732).\n\nHowever,\n\n> Beyond Meat has fully denied that it’s at risk of running out of cash. “Your story suggesting that Beyond Meat filed for bankruptcy is unequivocally false. We have not filed nor are we planning to file for bankruptcy,” the company shared in an email to TheStreet.\n\nNevertheless the long-term future of Beyond Meat, Inc. remains uncertain." }, { "id": 41337, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "url_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "slug": "us-job-gain-from-dec-2025-to-feb-2026-less-than-100k", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-27T20:03:35.163131Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:03:09.817010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:18:23.056309Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41037, "title": "Will the United States gain less than 100,000 new nonfarm jobs between December 2025 and February 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-27T20:03:35.163922Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-16T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-06T13:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for February 2026, minus the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees for December 2025, according to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS), is less than 100 thousand.\n\nThis question will resolve using the numbers from the Employment Situation for February 2026. Therefore, it will most probably use the initial estimates for February and the revised estimates for December 2025.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "US job gain from Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 less than 100k?", "post_id": 41337, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768820579.361063, "end_time": 1768839977.308, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768820579.361063, "end_time": 1768839977.308, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5951721702567658 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07618090488681187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019132522858291853, 0.0, 0.14559996122557922, 0.0056145053338992595, 0.1694368057933399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24721617226150308, 0.15813873095213704, 0.09858752703171426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3693906950533837, 0.01732880491444991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8229452876147768, 0.02547085730884873, 0.0, 0.5654667606195058, 0.0, 0.06860061761851395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08291368201458191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0062056533245245, 0.0, 0.2828698027988304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.012715044525389515, 0.0, 0.3704164410767862, 0.0, 0.16667267458392124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4403793461099823, 0.557878922683521, 0.0, 0.47295204745398656, 2.291191049152613, 1.1785360353501741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0049235387378217576, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019754520645241095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7823142562201406, 0.07049165811994734, 0.04331287452455614, 0.0, 1.0234975138020301, 0.2530319812175794, 0.0, 0.23701969683936608, 0.0, 0.061748853805190455, 0.06018168915842613, 0.30685582591597954, 0.0, 0.8948374224172492, 0.0, 0.09563836751124195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299702702416284, 0.3940227093104349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7554658117724923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8735287735095535 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 185, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics [reports the total number of \"nonfarm\" employees](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS) in the U.S. economy; the total number of workers, not counting farm employees, household employees, the self-employed, and volunteers. For decades, outside of periods of recession, this number has gone steadily up. Unemployment and the stock market have historically been closely correlated: when [unemployment goes down](https://www.cabotwealth.com/daily/stock-market/unemployment-stock-market-correlation-one-chart), the stock market goes up, and vice versa.\n\nSince 2022 however, [employment growth has slowed](https://www.derekthompson.org/p/is-this-the-new-scariest-chart-in) while the stock market has continued to rise. This unprecedented phenomenon has been [attributed to](https://markets.financialcontent.com/wral/article/marketminute-2025-12-26-the-2026-jobless-boom-why-the-economy-is-soaring-while-the-labor-market-freezes) the post-pandemic increase in interest rates and the contemporaneous AI-related stock boom (which some fear is a bubble).\n\nIn November 2025, the seasonally adjusted number of nonfarm employees was 159.552 million. Previous values are available [from FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS)." }, { "id": 41336, "title": "Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "OpenAI API prices fall before Mar 14, 2026?", "url_title": "OpenAI API prices fall before Mar 14, 2026?", "slug": "openai-api-prices-fall-before-mar-14-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-27T13:19:41.401505Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:46:57.473046Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:16:12.169920Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 840, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41036, "title": "Will OpenAI API token prices fall before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-27T13:19:41.402241Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "OpenAI has a history of significantly reducing API prices along with new model releases, while maintaining roughly the same capabilities as the predecessor models. [GPT-4](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4) had an input price of \\$30 per 1 million tokens and an output price of \\$60. This was followed by [GPT-4-Turbo](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4-turbo), with input/output prices of \\$10/\\$30 per 1M tokens, which were further reduced in [GPT-4o](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4o) to \\$2.5/\\$10. [GPT-5](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5), released in August 2025, was even cheaper at \\$1.25/\\$10. However, no models released since then have shown a further drop in prices (excluding mini and nano versions), with [GPT-5.1](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.1) being similarly priced to GPT-5 and [GPT-5.2](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.2) being more expensive at \\$1.75/\\$14.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026 ET, the standard on-demand OpenAI [API Pricing](https://platform.openai.com/docs/pricing?latest-pricing=standard) lists *any* regular-sized GPT-5 or later model as having either:\n\n* an input price below \\$1.25 per 1 million tokens, or\n* an output price below \\$10 per 1 million tokens\n\nor *the latest* regular-sized GPT model as having either\n\n* an input price below \\$1.75 per 1 million tokens, or\n* an output price below \\$14 per 1 million tokens", "fine_print": "* A regular-sized GPT model is defined as any model whose official model name/ID contains “gpt-5” or \"gpt-6\" and does not contain “mini”, “nano”, or another label that clearly indicates that its size is significantly smaller than the regular-sized model (e.g., \"small\", \"lite\"). In case of an ambiguous label, reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) will be used to determine if the model is significantly smaller.\n* The latest regular-sized GPT model is the regular-sized GPT-5 or -6 model that has been most recently released and is listed on the API page. It includes all versions of that model. For example, as of January 9, the latest model is gpt-5.2 and therefore all of the following models listed [on this page](https://platform.openai.com/docs/pricing?latest-pricing=standard) would count: gpt-5.2, gpt-5.2-chat-latest, gpt-5.2-pro, as would gpt-5.2-codex were that to be released.\n* Standard on-demand pricing excludes Batch pricing, Flex pricing, cached-input discounts, promotional credits, fine-tuned model pricing, and any third-party/reseller pricing.", "short_title": "OpenAI API prices fall before Mar 14, 2026?", "post_id": 41336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1394, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI has a history of significantly reducing API prices along with new model releases, while maintaining roughly the same capabilities as the predecessor models. [GPT-4](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4) had an input price of \\$30 per 1 million tokens and an output price of \\$60. This was followed by [GPT-4-Turbo](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4-turbo), with input/output prices of \\$10/\\$30 per 1M tokens, which were further reduced in [GPT-4o](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-4o) to \\$2.5/\\$10. [GPT-5](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5), released in August 2025, was even cheaper at \\$1.25/\\$10. However, no models released since then have shown a further drop in prices (excluding mini and nano versions), with [GPT-5.1](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.1) being similarly priced to GPT-5 and [GPT-5.2](https://platform.openai.com/docs/models/gpt-5.2) being more expensive at \\$1.75/\\$14." }, { "id": 41332, "title": "Will the US impose any new import restriction upon China before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "new-us-import-restrictions-on-china-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-26T23:12:27.431234Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:53:01.700089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:11:41.856440Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 978, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41030, "title": "Will the US impose any new import restriction upon China before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-26T23:12:27.431705Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since 2018, the United States and China have engaged in a significant [trade war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war). Following the imposition of tariffs by the United States, both China and the US repeatedly increased restrictions through 2019, before a pause in increases during early 2020. Throughout 2021-2024, the Biden Administration kept in place tariffs from the initial trade war, and even imposed additional restrictions on items such as electric vehicles.\n\nIn 2025, following Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the United States dramatically ramped up import restrictions on China. On February 1, the US [imposed 10% tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-01/trump-hits-china-canada-mexico-with-tariffs-to-open-trade-war) on China, with escalation going back and forth through March.\n\nOn April 2, 2025, the United States announced sweeping \"[Liberation Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs)\" tariffs, targeting numerous countries around the world, with China's rate increasing by 34 percentage points, to 54%. Following this action, China retaliated with a 34% tariff rate on the United States, with tit-for-tat escalation [resulting in a 145% tariff on China](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/china-trump-tariffs-live-updates.html), before the US suspended its tariffs and began negotiations. \n\nFollowing additional changes such as the removal of the [de minimis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_minimis) exemption, China and the United States reached a [trade deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-reach-deal-slash-tariffs-officials-say-2025-05-12) in which tariff rates would largely be returned to pre-liberation day levels.\n\nDuring October 2025, tensions briefly flared following additional US sanctions imposed on Chinese companies, with China responding with export restrictions on rare earths, and the US raising tariffs once again. On October 30, 2025, the United States and China came to an agreement [largely reversing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/us-to-suspend-china-sanctions-expansion-for-a-year-beijing-says) the actions taken in October.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026 ET, the United States announces via binding legal action any new tariff, import quota, or import ban upon China, or harshens existing restrictions, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nTo qualify for this question, the order or law which imposes the restriction must specifically mention China; broad policy changes that affect China incidentally will not qualify.", "fine_print": "* \"Harshens existing restrictions\" is defined as an increase in tariff rates, a tighter quota, an expansion of the existing bans, or the removal/curtailment of an existing exemption, exclusion, or waiver.\n* \"Specifically mention China\" means that government discretion was involved in selecting China. For example, enforcing tariffs against all countries that do business with Iran and listing China as one of those countries would not qualify, provided that any country that did business with Iran would be automatically added to the list.\n* Antidumping/countervailing duties count as tariffs for this question.\n* Export restrictions will have no impact on this question.", "short_title": "New US import restrictions on China by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41332, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768823581.655271, "end_time": 1768873715.955, "forecaster_count": 975, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768823581.655271, "end_time": 1768873715.955, "forecaster_count": 975, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.6487225854219079 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16068299682712903, 0.15487243821015334, 4.48679621218103e-05, 9.020010280246455e-05, 0.0, 0.645517548630687, 0.012757779087657762, 3.9219613748840214e-05, 2.300185767588784e-07, 8.720737231474736e-11, 0.18650828395906216, 0.00418521123897813, 9.700910518760503e-07, 1.8698822229722979e-06, 5.375579471912038e-05, 0.7165939273116442, 3.210680256966537e-10, 2.1345539018897455e-05, 0.0024989147474221867, 0.0031661811186349084, 1.2944287005603405, 0.009081945672319515, 0.006038833001796294, 0.8095539637763568, 0.1422150903413825, 0.2206121032051483, 0.003021134877832921, 0.007878300353063816, 0.002670786315641617, 0.0, 0.36688475999999515, 5.06640502443485e-09, 0.0003578222575877509, 0.024475513240082618, 0.5810779500549227, 1.1429564921374116, 0.10780491263659903, 0.09616683075469529, 0.05019455157693888, 0.6108103027520537, 1.5155132863752865, 0.04570651858443303, 0.22957682982499933, 0.12416916140695741, 0.8829890744069014, 0.9696437573379149, 0.031339396795638706, 0.02437428160370128, 0.0006724459415567957, 0.027151819132520405, 2.8363035759062583, 0.09304609851573556, 0.12658354881490577, 0.00012763784475777103, 0.5838333253580528, 1.6367251341181164, 1.0375322430537826, 1.1752761530964748, 0.0, 0.34438547839674716, 3.273022768182026, 0.9854936814468432, 0.2345791574539554, 0.670833312275441, 0.03628788652212834, 0.6465089027543125, 1.3919050018967787, 2.688339016993249, 2.8646330901311843, 0.25524825799904977, 3.381526234082103, 0.8597281916746646, 0.7646758963076562, 0.8659234393943456, 0.5718201916076913, 3.5361132338259287, 1.8356669026569659, 0.22865190713050831, 2.2397895272906888e-05, 0.13876314530388917, 4.752364262065386, 0.6558713441795254, 0.8292667567140565, 0.0011466048182673435, 0.33556157539060477, 2.8675608238582413, 0.31675868899447446, 0.6673383866796542, 0.5929004377939531, 0.4984186227969694, 0.020187534277885735, 0.0003352615181989993, 0.02489246339765815, 0.034451131491541435, 0.1163081679897798, 1.7382658236615476, 0.005809967097696693, 0.0, 0.12619544437096888, 3.0897229618239717 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2067, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2018, the United States and China have engaged in a significant [trade war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93United_States_trade_war). Following the imposition of tariffs by the United States, both China and the US repeatedly increased restrictions through 2019, before a pause in increases during early 2020. Throughout 2021-2024, the Biden Administration kept in place tariffs from the initial trade war, and even imposed additional restrictions on items such as electric vehicles.\n\nIn 2025, following Donald Trump's return to the presidency, the United States dramatically ramped up import restrictions on China. On February 1, the US [imposed 10% tariffs](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-01/trump-hits-china-canada-mexico-with-tariffs-to-open-trade-war) on China, with escalation going back and forth through March.\n\nOn April 2, 2025, the United States announced sweeping \"[Liberation Day](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs)\" tariffs, targeting numerous countries around the world, with China's rate increasing by 34 percentage points, to 54%. Following this action, China retaliated with a 34% tariff rate on the United States, with tit-for-tat escalation [resulting in a 145% tariff on China](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/china-trump-tariffs-live-updates.html), before the US suspended its tariffs and began negotiations. \n\nFollowing additional changes such as the removal of the [de minimis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_minimis) exemption, China and the United States reached a [trade deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-china-reach-deal-slash-tariffs-officials-say-2025-05-12) in which tariff rates would largely be returned to pre-liberation day levels.\n\nDuring October 2025, tensions briefly flared following additional US sanctions imposed on Chinese companies, with China responding with export restrictions on rare earths, and the US raising tariffs once again. On October 30, 2025, the United States and China came to an agreement [largely reversing](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-30/us-to-suspend-china-sanctions-expansion-for-a-year-beijing-says) the actions taken in October." }, { "id": 41316, "title": "Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "more-us-sanctions-on-russia-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-24T00:38:04.010910Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:48:16.458754Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:13:24.678192Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 964, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41020, "title": "Will the United States impose additional sanctions on Russia related to the Ukraine war before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-24T00:38:04.011558Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-10T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The United States has repeatedly imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia in recent years. In April 2013, under the Barack Obama administration, the United States imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials under the [Magnitsky Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act), which had been signed into law the previous year. Then, in March 2014, the United States and the European Union [imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/europe/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-russian-officials.html?hp&_r=0) in connection with the Russian occupation of Crimea. (The US ultimately imposed [multiple rounds of sanctions](https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions) related to that conflict.) And in December 2016, President Obama imposed [additional sanctions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-punishes-russia-over-election-hacking-with-sanctions-1483039178) on Russia in connection with the country's alleged interference in the 2016 US elections.\n\nIn 2017, Donald Trump came to power, taking a notably more conciliatory approach toward Russia than his predecessor had. Nevertheless, in July 2017, Congress passed the [Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countering_America%27s_Adversaries_Through_Sanctions_Act), which imposed new sanctions on Russia for its activities relating to Ukraine, Syria, and the 2016 election. Though he criticized the legislation as flawed, President Trump signed it into law. The Trump administration subsequently imposed [numerous other sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war#2018) relating to Russia.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering [\"the most severe economic sanctions ever levied on Russia.\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/russia-economic-sanctions-ukraine-60-minutes-2022-03-20/) And as that conflict drags on, sanctions remain a key component of US foreign policy vis-à -vis Russia. On December 17, 2025, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-new-russia-sanctions-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal-bloomberg-news-2025-12-17/) that the Trump administration was preparing an additional round of sanctions on Russia to pressure it to negotiate a peace with Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 12, 2026 and before March 14, 2026 ET, the US government announces via binding legal action a new or expanded sanctions-related restriction on Russian persons or entities and the official announcement explicitly states it is related to the Ukraine war.\n\nSanctions include, but are not limited to asset freezes, transaction bans, trade restrictions, Entity List-type actions, or visa/entry restrictions, and they might be issued by OFAC, the Department of State, the Department of Commerce, the White House, or Congress.\n\nActions not explicitly linked to the war in the official announcements or press materials do not count, even if plausibly war-motivated.", "fine_print": "An example of an action that would count is OFAC's October 22, 2025 [issuance](https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20251022) of new sanctions targeting Russian oil companies (including Lukoil and Rosneft), with the accompanying [press release](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0290) stating that it is doing so \"as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.\"", "short_title": "More US sanctions on Russia by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1602, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States has repeatedly imposed a variety of sanctions on Russia in recent years. In April 2013, under the Barack Obama administration, the United States imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials under the [Magnitsky Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act), which had been signed into law the previous year. Then, in March 2014, the United States and the European Union [imposed sanctions on numerous Russian officials](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/18/world/europe/us-imposes-new-sanctions-on-russian-officials.html?hp&_r=0) in connection with the Russian occupation of Crimea. (The US ultimately imposed [multiple rounds of sanctions](https://www.state.gov/division-for-counter-threat-finance-and-sanctions/ukraine-and-russia-sanctions) related to that conflict.) And in December 2016, President Obama imposed [additional sanctions](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-punishes-russia-over-election-hacking-with-sanctions-1483039178) on Russia in connection with the country's alleged interference in the 2016 US elections.\n\nIn 2017, Donald Trump came to power, taking a notably more conciliatory approach toward Russia than his predecessor had. Nevertheless, in July 2017, Congress passed the [Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Countering_America%27s_Adversaries_Through_Sanctions_Act), which imposed new sanctions on Russia for its activities relating to Ukraine, Syria, and the 2016 election. Though he criticized the legislation as flawed, President Trump signed it into law. The Trump administration subsequently imposed [numerous other sanctions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war#2018) relating to Russia.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, triggering [\"the most severe economic sanctions ever levied on Russia.\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/russia-economic-sanctions-ukraine-60-minutes-2022-03-20/) And as that conflict drags on, sanctions remain a key component of US foreign policy vis-à -vis Russia. On December 17, 2025, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us-readies-new-russia-sanctions-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal-bloomberg-news-2025-12-17/) that the Trump administration was preparing an additional round of sanctions on Russia to pressure it to negotiate a peace with Ukraine." }, { "id": 41310, "title": "Will the X algorithm be run by Grok before March 12, 2026?", "short_title": "Will X be powered by Grok before Mar 12, 2026?", "url_title": "Will X be powered by Grok before Mar 12, 2026?", "slug": "will-x-be-powered-by-grok-before-mar-12-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-23T02:34:08.515519Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:46:49.361484Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:14:06.474748Z", "comment_count": 80, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1178, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41013, "title": "Will the X algorithm be run by Grok before March 12, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-23T02:34:08.515969Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-12T16:01:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-12T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[X (the social network formerly known as Twitter)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter) is one of the most popular social-media sites on the Internet. Founded in 2006, it went public (as Twitter, Inc.) in 2013, before being [purchased by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in 2022, for \\$44 billion.\n\nIn 2023, Musk (a co-founder of OpenAI who had since left the organization) created his own artificial-intelligence company, [xAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XAI_\\(company\\)). xAI released the initial version of its generative AI chatbot, [Grok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_\\(chatbot\\)), in November 2023. Subsequent versions of Grok would be increasingly integrated with the X network, with users able to interact with Grok directly via tweets.\n\nIn March 2025, xAI took over X, purchasing its parent company, X Corp., for \\$33 billion. And on October 17, 2025, Musk [posted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979217645854511402) that X's recommendation algorithm was [going to be handed over to Grok](https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/x-formerly-twitter-switching-to-fully-ai-powered-grok-algorithm/803174/), which \"will literally read every post and watch every video (100M+ per day) to match users with content they’re most likely to find interesting.\" Musk suggested that this process would be complete in 4-6 weeks (which would be approximately 4 months according to [Elon Time](https://elontime.io/?time=5\\&unit=weeks)).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 12, 2026 ET, X, xAI, or Elon Musk announce that the entire personalized selection and ordering of posts shown to each user in the X *For you* timeline or another personalized feed is determined exclusively by Grok, and [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) do not contradict this within 3 days of the announcement.\n\nIn addition to Grok, X may use the timestamp of a post and various hard filters (e.g., based on policy or legal enforcement, safety, spam, deduplication, geo or language availability constraints, or explicit user content settings) to determine the final selection and ordering. However, no learned model or heuristic that uses user behavior or inferred interests may be used besides Grok.", "fine_print": "* As the selection of posts needs to be chosen by Grok, Grok ranking posts from already-followed accounts does not qualify.\n* Metaculus will generally not inspect published code to determine compliance with these criteria, but will instead rely on descriptions from X, xAI, or Elon Musk along with analyses from credible sources. Plain language descriptions accompanying the code may be used, such as code documentation.\n* For the purposes of this question, “Grok” includes any Grok-family learned model provided by xAI. This includes embedding models that are directly based on Grok-derived embeddings, even if these have been further fine-tuned, or other uses of Grok-derived embeddings as the sole learned personalization signal.\n* This question will resolve as **Yes** if the announcement mentions a phased rollout to the general user base, but not if it mentions only a beta, pilot, or experiment limited to a small number of users.\n* An announcement counts only if it is posted on an official X or xAI channel or if it is stated on the record by Elon Musk or an executive officer of X or xAI (CEO, CTO, Head of Engineering or equivalent).", "short_title": "Will X be powered by Grok before Mar 12, 2026?", "post_id": 41310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768823198.770128, "end_time": 1768873594.43, "forecaster_count": 1172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.044 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768823198.770128, "end_time": 1768873594.43, "forecaster_count": 1172, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.044 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.956, 0.044 ], "means": [ 0.10001139960508246 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.819462460722413, 3.1829725631437324, 7.675914647597213, 6.481996384494579, 7.115859555076153, 7.772460610112294, 3.2936119838193427, 2.7072998492466143, 1.7288668096975388, 0.07194694293815872, 2.9969894534858192, 0.030965636631020723, 1.6136546067687303, 0.01780561000842354, 0.2203900867491797, 2.911605854524968, 0.9039695747897105, 0.06536531609568967, 0.017974260951247073, 0.057962986421392276, 0.49585907642698235, 0.6603783894249933, 0.04197374455610217, 0.0036778863718647595, 0.4863274537630625, 0.8201464705228535, 4.3310386221874684e-14, 0.04033969445481801, 0.1485867551038917, 0.0, 0.15737468778598118, 0.7031111898197362, 0.05515508724377951, 0.005949267505570554, 0.06570481791964805, 0.0032493146399457393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00306417723192272, 0.0, 0.0003951652922925756, 2.4840932513094216e-07, 0.0012055100147218502, 0.11939752516465826, 5.949807439016521e-07, 0.24620882562764287, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02348320851447076, 0.004889135057158523, 0.0, 0.00027049366630197324, 0.0, 0.0013838883294197434, 0.2918038671740299, 0.5226862282304708, 0.0, 0.011270847664464328, 0.19909765659978698, 7.962468196286003e-08, 0.12129878947796732, 0.0, 7.635556329678318e-07, 6.248453962205389e-10, 8.647705720665361e-11, 0.004330269756561452, 0.0016426991516681688, 0.0, 0.03786403365065659, 5.740255966212192e-06, 0.0, 5.405756764748039e-09, 2.265477610598101e-06, 0.9938255019312732, 0.0, 1.667867932941137e-07, 0.00875886782255063, 2.6619284210567447e-08, 0.39986597015803, 0.008834972699234242, 0.012675091746971777, 0.000989506207388817, 0.00020242828612973757, 4.6979863541354055e-07, 0.0, 0.0004440088148181038, 5.321467543657589e-06, 0.0, 4.1366370307441434e-08, 0.08014484848173334, 4.861396378404786e-07, 0.11218064341906375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38704876728048254 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2497, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[X (the social network formerly known as Twitter)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twitter) is one of the most popular social-media sites on the Internet. Founded in 2006, it went public (as Twitter, Inc.) in 2013, before being [purchased by Elon Musk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk) in 2022, for \\$44 billion.\n\nIn 2023, Musk (a co-founder of OpenAI who had since left the organization) created his own artificial-intelligence company, [xAI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XAI_\\(company\\)). xAI released the initial version of its generative AI chatbot, [Grok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grok_\\(chatbot\\)), in November 2023. Subsequent versions of Grok would be increasingly integrated with the X network, with users able to interact with Grok directly via tweets.\n\nIn March 2025, xAI took over X, purchasing its parent company, X Corp., for \\$33 billion. And on October 17, 2025, Musk [posted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1979217645854511402) that X's recommendation algorithm was [going to be handed over to Grok](https://www.socialmediatoday.com/news/x-formerly-twitter-switching-to-fully-ai-powered-grok-algorithm/803174/), which \"will literally read every post and watch every video (100M+ per day) to match users with content they’re most likely to find interesting.\" Musk suggested that this process would be complete in 4-6 weeks (which would be approximately 4 months according to [Elon Time](https://elontime.io/?time=5\\&unit=weeks))." }, { "id": 41302, "title": "Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?", "short_title": "≥100 AI layoffs between Jan 12 & Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "≥100 AI layoffs between Jan 12 & Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "100-ai-layoffs-between-jan-12-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T19:48:33.115518Z", "published_at": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:48:04.793904Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-12T15:16:42.053738Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 861, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-19T11:49:28.608825Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41005, "title": "Will layoffs.fyi explicity report at least 100 AI industry layoffs between January 12 and March 13, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T19:48:33.115917Z", "open_time": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Many are excited about the possibilities of this artificial intelligence, which has led to [record levels of investment](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/AI-INVESTMENT/gkvlqbgxkpb/). At the same time, this investment has led to concerns about an [\"AI bubble.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble) Bubble predictors point to the [high concentration](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts) of AI-related companies in the stock market's recent returns, as well as the outsize role of AI-related spending in the U.S. GDP. If AI companies fail to live up to the hype, the economic consequences could be huge.\n\nWhile many workers are concerned about the risk that AI will [replace them](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r9280gvelo), people who work on AI may themselves find their jobs at risk if the AI bubble bursts. Indeed, even as valuations continue to rise, there have already been over 800 layoffs in the AI industry in 2025, according to tech-industry tracker [layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi). Most of these layoffs were connected to [xAI's termination](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-xai-layoffs-data-annotators-2025-9) of around 500 people during September.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there 100 or more people that were laid offs in the AI industry between January 12 and March 13, 2026 ET, inclusive of both dates, according to the # Laid Off column of [layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi).", "fine_print": "Note that layoffs.fyi tracks layoffs in several industries. The spreadsheet on the [main page](https://layoffs.fyi) can be filtered by industry, and this question will resolve according to the number of layoffs attributed to the AI industry, using only the # Laid Off column and not any other data presented. (See detailed instructions below.)\n\nThis question will resolve based on the number of qualifying layoffs displayed on the site when checked by Metaculus on or after March 14, 2026. Additional layoffs retroactively added to the website will not cause this question to re-resolve.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1\\. At the [resolution source](https://airtable.com/app1PaujS9zxVGUZ4/shroKsHx3SdYYOzeh/tblleV7Pnb6AcPCYL?viewControls=on) at the top toolbar, click the *Filter* button (funnel icon). \n2\\. Click *+Add Condition* and set *Industry* to *AI*.\n2\\. Sort *Date* by latest to earliest.", "short_title": "≥100 AI layoffs between Jan 12 & Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1469, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Many are excited about the possibilities of this artificial intelligence, which has led to [record levels of investment](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ECONOMY/AI-INVESTMENT/gkvlqbgxkpb/). At the same time, this investment has led to concerns about an [\"AI bubble.\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble) Bubble predictors point to the [high concentration](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/this-is-how-the-ai-bubble-bursts) of AI-related companies in the stock market's recent returns, as well as the outsize role of AI-related spending in the U.S. GDP. If AI companies fail to live up to the hype, the economic consequences could be huge.\n\nWhile many workers are concerned about the risk that AI will [replace them](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r9280gvelo), people who work on AI may themselves find their jobs at risk if the AI bubble bursts. Indeed, even as valuations continue to rise, there have already been over 800 layoffs in the AI industry in 2025, according to tech-industry tracker [layoffs.fyi](https://layoffs.fyi). Most of these layoffs were connected to [xAI's termination](https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-xai-layoffs-data-annotators-2025-9) of around 500 people during September." }, { "id": 41295, "title": "Will EMR's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-30?", "short_title": "EMR's close price rises?", "url_title": "EMR's close price rises?", "slug": "emrs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:46.356735Z", "published_at": "2025-12-30T11:30:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:56:53.056127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:46.559553Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T11:30:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41003, "title": "Will EMR's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-30?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:46.357175Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T11:30:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T16:45:57Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:56:50.179992Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Emerson Electric Co. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EMR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:55) is 132.98. You can find more information about Emerson Electric Co. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EMR\n\nEmerson Electric Co., a technology and software company, provides various solutions in the Americas, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It operates through Final Control, Measurement & Analytical, Discrete Automation, Safety & Productivity, Control Systems & Software, and Test & Measurement segments. The Final Control segment provides control valves, isolation valves, shutoff valves, pressure relief valves, pressure safety valves, actuators, and regulators for process and hybrid industries under Anderson Greenwood, Bettis, Crosby, Fisher, Keystone, KTM, and Vanessa brands. The Measurement & Analytical segment supplies intelligent instrumentation measuring the physical properties of liquids or gases, such as pressure, temperature, level, flow, acoustics, corrosion, pH, conductivity, water quality, toxic gases, and flame under the Flexim, Micro Motion, and Rosemount brands. The Discrete Automation segment includes solenoid valves, pneumatic valves, valve position indicators, pneumatic cylinders and actuators, air preparation equipment, pressure and temperature switches, electric linear motion solutions, programmable automation control systems and software, electrical distribution equipment, and materials joining solutions used primarily in discrete industries under the Afag, Appleton, ASCO, Aventics, Branson, Movicon, PACSystems, SolaHD, TESCOM, and TopWorx brands. The Safety & Productivity segment delivers tools for professionals and homeowners that support infrastructure, promote safety, and enhance productivity under the Greenlee, Klauke, ProTeam, and RIDGID brands. The Control Systems & Software segment provides control systems and software that control plant processes by collecting and analyzing information from measurement devices in the plant under the DeltaV and Ovation brands. The Test & Measurement offers software-connected automated test and measurement systems. The company was incorporated in 1890 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EMR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EMR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-30, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "EMR's close price rises?", "post_id": 41295, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767097994.130559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767097994.130559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.515 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5279368467822351 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 14.0, 5.0, 8.0, 23.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.536526583220887, "peer_score": 2.9073598530102815, "coverage": 0.9726784910979094, "relative_legacy_score": -0.008366505690272646, "weighted_coverage": 0.9726784910979094, "spot_peer_score": 2.8245246403545536, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 10.536526583220887, "peer_archived_score": 2.9073598530102815, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.008366505690272646, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.8245246403545536, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Emerson Electric Co. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EMR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:55) is 132.98. You can find more information about Emerson Electric Co. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EMR\n\nEmerson Electric Co., a technology and software company, provides various solutions in the Americas, Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe. It operates through Final Control, Measurement & Analytical, Discrete Automation, Safety & Productivity, Control Systems & Software, and Test & Measurement segments. The Final Control segment provides control valves, isolation valves, shutoff valves, pressure relief valves, pressure safety valves, actuators, and regulators for process and hybrid industries under Anderson Greenwood, Bettis, Crosby, Fisher, Keystone, KTM, and Vanessa brands. The Measurement & Analytical segment supplies intelligent instrumentation measuring the physical properties of liquids or gases, such as pressure, temperature, level, flow, acoustics, corrosion, pH, conductivity, water quality, toxic gases, and flame under the Flexim, Micro Motion, and Rosemount brands. The Discrete Automation segment includes solenoid valves, pneumatic valves, valve position indicators, pneumatic cylinders and actuators, air preparation equipment, pressure and temperature switches, electric linear motion solutions, programmable automation control systems and software, electrical distribution equipment, and materials joining solutions used primarily in discrete industries under the Afag, Appleton, ASCO, Aventics, Branson, Movicon, PACSystems, SolaHD, TESCOM, and TopWorx brands. The Safety & Productivity segment delivers tools for professionals and homeowners that support infrastructure, promote safety, and enhance productivity under the Greenlee, Klauke, ProTeam, and RIDGID brands. The Control Systems & Software segment provides control systems and software that control plant processes by collecting and analyzing information from measurement devices in the plant under the DeltaV and Ovation brands. The Test & Measurement offers software-connected automated test and measurement systems. The company was incorporated in 1890 and is headquartered in Saint Louis, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EMR\"}}`" }, { "id": 41293, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:38.407271Z", "published_at": "2025-12-30T09:02:12Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:56:58.811634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:39.632643Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T09:02:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41001, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:38.407669Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T09:02:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T14:43:21Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:56:55.975065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T10:32:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353). If the community prediction on 2026-01-03 14:43:21 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41293, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767089512.474386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767089512.474386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.24015582259691107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 61.565452673908894, "peer_score": 7.6252656177286715, "coverage": 0.9191732753647698, "relative_legacy_score": 0.011225709142644577, "weighted_coverage": 0.9191732753647698, "spot_peer_score": 9.00660776307956, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 61.565452673908894, "peer_archived_score": 7.6252656177286715, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.011225709142644577, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.00660776307956, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37353\n- Original question title: Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n> * If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n> * If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n> * In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n> \n> See also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37353,\"question_id\":36713,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 41292, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-federal-judge-impeached-by-republicans-before-jan-3-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:33.964669Z", "published_at": "2025-12-30T05:22:04Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:04.360460Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:35.166056Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T05:22:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41000, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 17.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:33.965068Z", "open_time": "2025-12-30T05:22:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T19:31:22Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:01.527254Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-30T06:52:04Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36348\n- Original question title: Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal judge is impeached by the US House of Representatives with fewer than half of Democratic representatives voting for the impeachment.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The reason for impeachment is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n> \n> Conviction in the US Senate, which at the time of this question [requires](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm) a two-thirds vote to convict, is not necessary for this question to resolve as **Yes**. \n\nOriginal background: \n> [Impeachment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States) of federal judges in the United States is a rare and serious action, typically reserved for cases involving significant misconduct or ethical violations. The process requires a majority vote in the House of Representative to impeach and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the judge from office. [Historically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_impeachments), very few federal judges have been impeached and removed, and none solely for their judicial decisions.\n> \n> In March 2025, President Donald Trump [called for](https://apnews.com/article/trump-judge-boasberg-musk-impeachment-1019459fc9517231204b814fd6f36127) the impeachment of US District Judge James Boasberg after Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Chief Justice John Roberts [responded](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) by stating that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreements over judicial decisions.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36348,\"question_id\":35765,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36348). If the community prediction on 2026-01-02 19:31:22 is higher than 17.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Federal judge impeached by Republicans before Jan 3, 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41292, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767075564.960057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767075564.960057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27161157554102333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.213361806102085, "peer_score": 4.277766042502909, "coverage": 0.9780570585197872, "relative_legacy_score": 0.015986660540131977, "weighted_coverage": 0.9780570585197872, "spot_peer_score": 4.5697038267166965, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 51.213361806102085, "peer_archived_score": 4.277766042502909, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.015986660540131977, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.5697038267166965, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36348\n- Original question title: Will a federal judge be impeached by Republican Representatives in a partisan vote before January 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 17.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal judge is impeached by the US House of Representatives with fewer than half of Democratic representatives voting for the impeachment.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The reason for impeachment is immaterial for the purposes of this question.\n> \n> Conviction in the US Senate, which at the time of this question [requires](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/impeachment.htm) a two-thirds vote to convict, is not necessary for this question to resolve as **Yes**. \n\nOriginal background: \n> [Impeachment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States) of federal judges in the United States is a rare and serious action, typically reserved for cases involving significant misconduct or ethical violations. The process requires a majority vote in the House of Representative to impeach and a two-thirds majority in the Senate to convict and remove the judge from office. [Historically](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_impeachment_in_the_United_States#List_of_federal_impeachments), very few federal judges have been impeached and removed, and none solely for their judicial decisions.\n> \n> In March 2025, President Donald Trump [called for](https://apnews.com/article/trump-judge-boasberg-musk-impeachment-1019459fc9517231204b814fd6f36127) the impeachment of US District Judge James Boasberg after Boasberg issued a temporary restraining order halting deportations under the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. Chief Justice John Roberts [responded](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-federal-judges-impeachment-29da1153a9f82106748098a6606fec39) by stating that impeachment is not an appropriate response to disagreements over judicial decisions.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36348,\"question_id\":35765,\"last_cp\":0.17}}`" }, { "id": 41291, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-12-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-presidential-impoundment-authority-expanded-before-november-3-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:30.324706Z", "published_at": "2025-12-29T14:16:35Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:09.882112Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:30.511847Z", "comment_count": 91, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-29T15:46:35Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T15:46:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:54:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:54:04Z", "open_time": "2025-12-29T14:16:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 90, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40999, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-12-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:30.325132Z", "open_time": "2025-12-29T14:16:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-29T15:46:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-29T15:46:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:54:04Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T18:54:04Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:07.060506Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T15:46:35Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-29T15:46:35Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38166\n- Original question title: Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, limitations on presidential impoundment authority (as first set out in the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and as of its current state on January 20, 2025) have been legally rescinded or modified in whole or in part. For the purposes of this question, at least one of the following must occur to count as impoundment authority having been \"legally rescinded or modified\", and must have the effect of granting the President of the United States greater impoundment authority:\n> \n> * The US Supreme Court issues a decision on the merits of presidential impoundment authority\n> * The US Supreme Court declines to hear the merits of an impoundment authority case, letting a lower court ruling stand, and Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject\n> * A bill is enacted\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * A Supreme Court decision on procedural issues or tangential topics is not sufficient on its own, only a decision on the merits of impoundment authority counts.\n> * The question will only resolve as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued a final ruling on the matter, effectively ending legal challenges to the restriction. For example, if the Court denies a request to block a certain usage of presidential impoundment authority before it holds a full hearing on the merits, that does not count as a final judgment and will not resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> * Metaculus will rely on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits or it is unclear whether a decision or law has expanded presidential impoundment authority.\n> * A narrow court decision finding that a specific act of alleged presidential impoundment is compliant with the law is not sufficient, a court decision must rescind or modify current law in whole or in part.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [According to the Government Accountability Office](https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-impoundment-control-act-and-what-gaos-role) (GAO):\n> \n> > When the President (or any officer or employee of the executive branch), through action or inaction, delays or withholds enacted funding, that is an impoundment.. . .The \\[Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974] provides the only legal mechanism for the President to delay or withhold funding, not cancel it. This law requires that the President notify Congress before delaying or withholding funds. That notification is called a “special message” and must contain information such as the reason for the impoundment along with the estimated fiscal, economic, and budgetary effects.. . .Special messages have been sent from the President to Congress many times. The ICA was enacted by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to spend certain federal funds. Since then, there have been 243 special messages from presidents of both parties to impound funds.\n> \n> GAO is responsible for reviewing the president's special messages for legal compliance, and also monitors for failures to report impoundment and can [sue for release of funds](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) if Congress has not approved a rescission of funds within the 45 day deadline.\n> \n> GAO has issued a number of opinions on impoundment authority in recent years. In January 2020 GAO [found that the Office of Management and Budget violated the act](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-331564) when it froze military aid to Ukraine, an episode that figured in President Trump’s first impeachment. More recently, on May 22, 2025 GAO [concluded that the Trump administration again violated the statute](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-337137) by blocking billions in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funds. During 2024, GAO [issued a decision](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-335747) finding that Biden's border wall spending, following his 2021 [proclamation](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/proclamation-termination-of-emergency-with-respect-to-southern-border-of-united-states-and-redirection-of-funds-diverted-to-border-wall-construction/) that construction would be paused, did not violate impoundment authority. However, some congressional Republicans criticized the Biden administration for taking steps that \"[dodge the law](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/gao-confirms-biden-administration-spends-border-security-funds-on-environmental-agenda)\".\n> \n> During President Trump's second term impoundment authority has become a key source of political dispute as the administration attempts to drastically cut spending. The Trump administration has [taken the position](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment) that the president has authority over spending and that the ICA is unconstitutional. In a 2023 [campaign video](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-using-impoundment-to-cut-waste-stop-inflation-and-crush-the-deep-state), Trump said:\n> \n> > For 200 years under our system of government, it was undisputed that the president had the constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as \"impoundment authority\".. . .Thomas Jefferson famously used this power, as did many other presidents, until it was wrongfully curtailed by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 -- not a very good act -- this disaster of a law is clearly unconstitutional, a blatant violation of the separation of powers. When I return to the White House I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it.\n> \n> Senator Mike Lee and Representative Andrew Clyde re-introduced [companion](https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-reintroduces-impoundment-control-act-repeal) [bills](https://clyde.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx) in February 2025 to repeal the ICA. A number of legal challenges to alleged cases of impoundment conducted by the Trump administration are [working their way through the courts](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38166,\"question_id\":37460,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38166). If the community prediction on 2025-12-31 18:54:04 is higher than 36.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Presidential Impoundment Authority Expanded Before November 3, 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41291, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767020490.688514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767020490.688514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.2847491549802229 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.71711167316487, "peer_score": 2.0962422200977207, "coverage": 0.9507164944542779, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0008761175139625493, "weighted_coverage": 0.9507164944542779, "spot_peer_score": 1.9875851271247413, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "baseline_archived_score": 48.71711167316487, "peer_archived_score": 2.0962422200977207, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0008761175139625493, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.9875851271247413, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38166\n- Original question title: Will presidential impoundment authority be expanded by the Supreme Court or by law before November 3, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 3, 2026, limitations on presidential impoundment authority (as first set out in the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 and as of its current state on January 20, 2025) have been legally rescinded or modified in whole or in part. For the purposes of this question, at least one of the following must occur to count as impoundment authority having been \"legally rescinded or modified\", and must have the effect of granting the President of the United States greater impoundment authority:\n> \n> * The US Supreme Court issues a decision on the merits of presidential impoundment authority\n> * The US Supreme Court declines to hear the merits of an impoundment authority case, letting a lower court ruling stand, and Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued the final judgment on the subject\n> * A bill is enacted\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * A Supreme Court decision on procedural issues or tangential topics is not sufficient on its own, only a decision on the merits of impoundment authority counts.\n> * The question will only resolve as **Yes** if Metaculus assesses that the Supreme Court has issued a final ruling on the matter, effectively ending legal challenges to the restriction. For example, if the Court denies a request to block a certain usage of presidential impoundment authority before it holds a full hearing on the merits, that does not count as a final judgment and will not resolve the question as **Yes**.\n> * Metaculus will rely on reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in the event it is unclear whether the Supreme Court has issued a decision giving the final judgment on the merits or it is unclear whether a decision or law has expanded presidential impoundment authority.\n> * A narrow court decision finding that a specific act of alleged presidential impoundment is compliant with the law is not sufficient, a court decision must rescind or modify current law in whole or in part.\n\nOriginal background: \n> [According to the Government Accountability Office](https://www.gao.gov/blog/what-impoundment-control-act-and-what-gaos-role) (GAO):\n> \n> > When the President (or any officer or employee of the executive branch), through action or inaction, delays or withholds enacted funding, that is an impoundment.. . .The \\[Impoundment Control Act (ICA) of 1974] provides the only legal mechanism for the President to delay or withhold funding, not cancel it. This law requires that the President notify Congress before delaying or withholding funds. That notification is called a “special message” and must contain information such as the reason for the impoundment along with the estimated fiscal, economic, and budgetary effects.. . .Special messages have been sent from the President to Congress many times. The ICA was enacted by Congress in 1974 in response to President Nixon’s refusal to spend certain federal funds. Since then, there have been 243 special messages from presidents of both parties to impound funds.\n> \n> GAO is responsible for reviewing the president's special messages for legal compliance, and also monitors for failures to report impoundment and can [sue for release of funds](https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/faqs-on-impoundment-presidential-actions-are-constrained-by-long-standing) if Congress has not approved a rescission of funds within the 45 day deadline.\n> \n> GAO has issued a number of opinions on impoundment authority in recent years. In January 2020 GAO [found that the Office of Management and Budget violated the act](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-331564) when it froze military aid to Ukraine, an episode that figured in President Trump’s first impeachment. More recently, on May 22, 2025 GAO [concluded that the Trump administration again violated the statute](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-337137) by blocking billions in National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure funds. During 2024, GAO [issued a decision](https://www.gao.gov/products/b-335747) finding that Biden's border wall spending, following his 2021 [proclamation](https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/20/proclamation-termination-of-emergency-with-respect-to-southern-border-of-united-states-and-redirection-of-funds-diverted-to-border-wall-construction/) that construction would be paused, did not violate impoundment authority. However, some congressional Republicans criticized the Biden administration for taking steps that \"[dodge the law](https://budget.house.gov/press-release/gao-confirms-biden-administration-spends-border-security-funds-on-environmental-agenda)\".\n> \n> During President Trump's second term impoundment authority has become a key source of political dispute as the administration attempts to drastically cut spending. The Trump administration has [taken the position](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment) that the president has authority over spending and that the ICA is unconstitutional. In a 2023 [campaign video](https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-using-impoundment-to-cut-waste-stop-inflation-and-crush-the-deep-state), Trump said:\n> \n> > For 200 years under our system of government, it was undisputed that the president had the constitutional power to stop unnecessary spending through what is known as \"impoundment authority\".. . .Thomas Jefferson famously used this power, as did many other presidents, until it was wrongfully curtailed by the Impoundment Control Act of 1974 -- not a very good act -- this disaster of a law is clearly unconstitutional, a blatant violation of the separation of powers. When I return to the White House I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary get Congress to overturn it. We will overturn it.\n> \n> Senator Mike Lee and Representative Andrew Clyde re-introduced [companion](https://www.lee.senate.gov/2025/2/lee-reintroduces-impoundment-control-act-repeal) [bills](https://clyde.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx) in February 2025 to repeal the ICA. A number of legal challenges to alleged cases of impoundment conducted by the Trump administration are [working their way through the courts](https://www.conference-board.org/research/ced-policy-backgrounders/adiministration-view-on-impoundment).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38166,\"question_id\":37460,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 41288, "title": "Will ROL's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-28?", "short_title": "ROL's close price rises?", "url_title": "ROL's close price rises?", "slug": "rols-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:19.969622Z", "published_at": "2025-12-28T03:41:59Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-04T07:04:04.584733Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:20.211532Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-28T05:11:59Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-28T05:11:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T23:58:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T23:58:08Z", "open_time": "2025-12-28T03:41:59Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40996, "title": "Will ROL's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-28?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:19.970017Z", "open_time": "2025-12-28T03:41:59Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-28T05:11:59Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-28T05:11:59Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T23:58:08Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T23:58:08Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-04T07:04:01.813478Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-28T05:11:59Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-28T05:11:59Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Rollins, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ROL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:51) is 60.06. You can find more information about Rollins, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROL\n\nRollins, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides pest and wildlife control services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The company offers pest control services to residential properties protecting from common pests, including rodents, insects, and wildlife. It also provides workplace pest control solutions for customers across various end markets, such as healthcare, foodservice, and logistics. In addition, the company offers termite protection and ancillary services. It serves clients directly, as well as through franchisee operations. The company was formerly known as Rollins Broadcasting, Inc and changed its name to Rollins, Inc. in 1965. Rollins, Inc. was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ROL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ROL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ROL's close price rises?", "post_id": 41288, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766898232.143996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766898232.143996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5616995037201669 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 6.0, 8.0, 8.0, 17.0, 6.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.59152276491687, "peer_score": 3.128045911121383, "coverage": 0.9097132509284553, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0036959543188592467, "weighted_coverage": 0.9097132509284553, "spot_peer_score": 3.6673747548620272, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -14.59152276491687, "peer_archived_score": 3.128045911121383, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0036959543188592467, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.6673747548620272, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rollins, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ROL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:51) is 60.06. You can find more information about Rollins, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ROL\n\nRollins, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides pest and wildlife control services to residential and commercial customers in the United States and internationally. The company offers pest control services to residential properties protecting from common pests, including rodents, insects, and wildlife. It also provides workplace pest control solutions for customers across various end markets, such as healthcare, foodservice, and logistics. In addition, the company offers termite protection and ancillary services. It serves clients directly, as well as through franchisee operations. The company was formerly known as Rollins Broadcasting, Inc and changed its name to Rollins, Inc. in 1965. Rollins, Inc. was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ROL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41287, "title": "Will MTB's market close price on 2026-01-01 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-27?", "short_title": "MTB's close price rises?", "url_title": "MTB's close price rises?", "slug": "mtbs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:16.506851Z", "published_at": "2025-12-27T20:11:53Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:15.590389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:16.696528Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-27T21:41:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-27T21:41:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:35:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:35:33Z", "open_time": "2025-12-27T20:11:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40995, "title": "Will MTB's market close price on 2026-01-01 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-27?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:16.507249Z", "open_time": "2025-12-27T20:11:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-27T21:41:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-27T21:41:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:35:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T02:35:33Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:12.764806Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-27T21:41:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-27T21:41:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "M&T Bank Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MTB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:00) is 205.82. You can find more information about M&T Bank Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MTB\n\nM&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and Wilmington Trust, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Bank, Retail Bank, and Institutional Services and Wealth Management. It offers a range of credit products and banking services, such as commercial lending and leasing, letters of credits, deposit products, cash management services, commercial real estate loans, and credit facilities secured by various commercial real estate properties to middle-market and large commercial customers. The company also provides customers deposit products, including demand, savings and time accounts, and other services; automobile and recreational finance loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, credit cards, and other loan products, as well as residential mortgage and real estate loans; business loans, cash management, payroll, and direct deposit services to consumers and small businesses through branch network, telephone banking, internet banking, and automated teller machines. In addition, it offers trustee, agency, investment management, security brokerage, and administrative services; personal trust, planning and advisory, fiduciary, asset management, family office, and other services; and investment products, including mutual funds and annuities, and other services for corporations and institutions, investment bankers, corporate tax, finance and legal executives, and other institutional clients. M&T Bank Corporation was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MTB\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of MTB. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "MTB's close price rises?", "post_id": 41287, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766870222.753976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766870222.753976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5491316545285972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 8.0, 6.0, 19.0, 12.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -13.540089848937223, "peer_score": 0.7791543845091811, "coverage": 0.9647958649970869, "relative_legacy_score": 0.004465646471439052, "weighted_coverage": 0.9647958649970869, "spot_peer_score": 0.9967930865178548, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -13.540089848937223, "peer_archived_score": 0.7791543845091811, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.004465646471439052, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.9967930865178548, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "M&T Bank Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is MTB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:00) is 205.82. You can find more information about M&T Bank Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MTB\n\nM&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and Wilmington Trust, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Commercial Bank, Retail Bank, and Institutional Services and Wealth Management. It offers a range of credit products and banking services, such as commercial lending and leasing, letters of credits, deposit products, cash management services, commercial real estate loans, and credit facilities secured by various commercial real estate properties to middle-market and large commercial customers. The company also provides customers deposit products, including demand, savings and time accounts, and other services; automobile and recreational finance loans, home equity loans and lines of credit, credit cards, and other loan products, as well as residential mortgage and real estate loans; business loans, cash management, payroll, and direct deposit services to consumers and small businesses through branch network, telephone banking, internet banking, and automated teller machines. In addition, it offers trustee, agency, investment management, security brokerage, and administrative services; personal trust, planning and advisory, fiduciary, asset management, family office, and other services; and investment products, including mutual funds and annuities, and other services for corporations and institutions, investment bankers, corporate tax, finance and legal executives, and other institutional clients. M&T Bank Corporation was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Buffalo, New York.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"MTB\"}}`" }, { "id": 41286, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 61.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:12.026345Z", "published_at": "2025-12-27T15:02:18Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:21.308068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:13.282858Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-27T16:32:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-27T16:32:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T21:02:20Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T21:02:20Z", "open_time": "2025-12-27T15:02:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40994, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 61.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:12.026750Z", "open_time": "2025-12-27T15:02:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-27T16:32:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-27T16:32:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T21:02:20Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T21:02:20Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:18.484282Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-27T16:32:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-27T16:32:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38209\n- Original question title: Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 61.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 4, 2026 ET, the U.S. Department of Justice officially rescinds, removes, or otherwise eliminates the current requirement that U.S. attorneys must consult with or seek approval from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) before initiating prosecutions of federal, state, or local lawmakers.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or an official DOJ policy announcement, memorandum, or revision to internal guidelines (such as updates to the Justice Manual) explicitly stating that this consultation requirement has been removed.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The question refers to federal policy applying nationwide. If the DOJ removes this requirement only in part or for specific districts but maintains it elsewhere, the question will *not* resolve based on this alone.\n> * A shift in informal practice or failure to enforce the consultation requirement will not suffice. There must be an official policy change.\n> * The removal must be in effect before the deadline. A policy being proposed or announced but not implemented will not count.\n> * If a court blocks the removal of the Public Integrity Section policy, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the revocation is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n> * This question concerns only the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with PIN before initiating prosecutions of lawmakers. If other DOJ rules get changed, such as the current requirement to consult with PIN before taking nonpublic investigative steps, this would not in itself be sufficient to resolve the question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38209,\"question_id\":37484,\"last_cp\":0.61}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38209). If the community prediction on 2026-01-03 21:02:20 is higher than 61.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"\"?", "post_id": 41286, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766852039.543972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766852039.543972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43343071989233806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -29.068691696601334, "peer_score": 1.3205261346740378, "coverage": 0.9561979164900603, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0897097981833299, "weighted_coverage": 0.9561979164900603, "spot_peer_score": 0.13065217377071028, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -29.068691696601334, "peer_archived_score": 1.3205261346740378, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0897097981833299, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.13065217377071028, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38209\n- Original question title: Will the DOJ officially remove the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with the Public Integrity Section before prosecuting lawmakers before November 4, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 61.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 4, 2026 ET, the U.S. Department of Justice officially rescinds, removes, or otherwise eliminates the current requirement that U.S. attorneys must consult with or seek approval from the Public Integrity Section (PIN) before initiating prosecutions of federal, state, or local lawmakers.\n> \n> This question will resolve based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or an official DOJ policy announcement, memorandum, or revision to internal guidelines (such as updates to the Justice Manual) explicitly stating that this consultation requirement has been removed.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The question refers to federal policy applying nationwide. If the DOJ removes this requirement only in part or for specific districts but maintains it elsewhere, the question will *not* resolve based on this alone.\n> * A shift in informal practice or failure to enforce the consultation requirement will not suffice. There must be an official policy change.\n> * The removal must be in effect before the deadline. A policy being proposed or announced but not implemented will not count.\n> * If a court blocks the removal of the Public Integrity Section policy, this question will still resolve as **Yes** if the revocation is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n> * This question concerns only the requirement for U.S. attorneys to consult with PIN before initiating prosecutions of lawmakers. If other DOJ rules get changed, such as the current requirement to consult with PIN before taking nonpublic investigative steps, this would not in itself be sufficient to resolve the question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In May 2025, a Justice Department spokesman confirmed that the Trump Justice Department was considering removing the longstanding requirement that U.S. attorneys consult with the [Public Integrity Section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_Integrity_Section) (PIN) before prosecuting lawmakers ([<u>The Washington Post</u>](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/05/17/trump-justice-department-prosecutions/)). PIN, established post-Watergate, was designed to prevent politically motivated prosecutions by ensuring oversight from a centralized non-partisan unit. Under current DOJ policy, PIN attorneys must be consulted on investigative steps, and any charges against members of Congress require their approval.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38209,\"question_id\":37484,\"last_cp\":0.61}}`" }, { "id": 41283, "title": "Will HPQ's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-27?", "short_title": "HPQ's close price rises?", "url_title": "HPQ's close price rises?", "slug": "hpqs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:00.575768Z", "published_at": "2025-12-27T00:36:28Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:26.878107Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:00.815811Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-27T02:06:28Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-27T02:06:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T06:28:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T06:28:52Z", "open_time": "2025-12-27T00:36:28Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40991, "title": "Will HPQ's market close price on 2026-01-03 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-27?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:55:00.576192Z", "open_time": "2025-12-27T00:36:28Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-27T02:06:28Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-27T02:06:28Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T06:28:52Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T06:28:52Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:24.045207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-27T02:06:28Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-27T02:06:28Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "HP Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HPQ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:01) is 23.26. You can find more information about HP Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ\n\nHP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, hybrid systems, and endpoint security and services, as well as lifecycle services, including support and deployment, configurations, and extended warranty services. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, and solutions, as well as office and home printing solutions; and focuses on graphics, 3D printing, personalization in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves small- and medium-sized businesses, public sector, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HPQ\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of HPQ. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "HPQ's close price rises?", "post_id": 41283, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766800778.141151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766800778.141151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "centers": [ 0.545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45499999999999996, 0.545 ], "means": [ 0.5231577559803049 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 5.0, 6.0, 25.0, 7.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.201017809498003, "peer_score": -2.111316534454708, "coverage": 0.9822317677957039, "relative_legacy_score": -0.007392591400270803, "weighted_coverage": 0.9822317677957039, "spot_peer_score": -3.5368085871469073, "spot_baseline_score": -13.606154957602856, "baseline_archived_score": -11.201017809498003, "peer_archived_score": -2.111316534454708, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.007392591400270803, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.5368085871469073, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -13.606154957602856 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "HP Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is HPQ. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:01) is 23.26. You can find more information about HP Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HPQ\n\nHP Inc. provides personal computing, printing, 3D printing, hybrid work, gaming, and other related technologies in the United States and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Personal Systems, Printing, and Corporate Investments. The Personal Systems segment offers commercial and consumer desktops and notebooks, workstations, thin clients, retail point-of-sale systems, displays, software, hybrid systems, and endpoint security and services, as well as lifecycle services, including support and deployment, configurations, and extended warranty services. The Printing segment provides consumer and commercial printer hardware, supplies, and solutions, as well as office and home printing solutions; and focuses on graphics, 3D printing, personalization in the commercial and industrial markets. The Corporate Investments segment is involved in the business incubation and investment projects. It serves small- and medium-sized businesses, public sector, and large enterprises. The company was formerly known as Hewlett-Packard Company and changed its name to HP Inc. in October 2015. HP Inc. was founded in 1939 and is headquartered in Palo Alto, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"HPQ\"}}`" } ] }
