Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6406, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 40644, "title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension b", "url_title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension b", "slug": "will-the-euitaly-formalize-financing-or-publish-a-tender-for-the-blueraman-east-africa-extension-b", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.460321Z", "published_at": "2025-11-13T05:41:10Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T07:12:00.320358Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.724969Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-13T05:41:10Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40240, "title": "Will the EU/Italy formalize financing or publish a tender for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension by 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.460739Z", "open_time": "2025-11-13T05:41:10Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T07:11:10Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What Blue‑Raman is: The Blue‑Raman cable system is a proposed intercontinental subsea fiber‑optic system linking France to India, with segments known as “Blue” (Mediterranean) and “Raman” (Red Sea/Arabian Sea). The route includes Djibouti on the African side of the Red Sea, and is notable for bypassing the Egyptian chokepoint. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system\n- The June 2025 announcement: At the Rome summit “The Mattei Plan for Africa and Global Gateway: A common effort with the African Continent,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Now, together with Italy, we will finance an extension of Blue‑Raman from its African hub in Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.” The statement framed this as part of the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and Italy’s Mattei Plan. Media coverage around the event likewise reported the EU and Italy would co‑finance expanding the Blue‑Raman fiber‑optic cable from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n- Why this matters for forecasting: Political announcements often precede but do not guarantee concrete financing instruments (e.g., signed grant/loan agreements) or procurement actions (e.g., contract notices/tenders). This question asks whether that June 2025 intent will translate into publicly verifiable financing or procurement steps for the East Africa extension by year‑end 2025.\n- Where such actions are typically published:\n • Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) is the online version of the EU’s Supplement to the Official Journal dedicated to public procurement notices. See: https://ted.europa.eu\n • The EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal is the European Commission’s single entry point (SEDIA) for funding programmes and tenders managed by the Commission and other EU bodies. See: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/home\n • The European Investment Bank (EIB) maintains an official project procurement page listing contract notices for EIB‑financed projects (often used for operations outside the EU). See: https://www.eib.org/en/about/procurement/project-procurement\n- Status quo from cited sources: The cited June 2025 materials describe intent to support/finance an extension from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania but do not themselves constitute a signed financing agreement or a published tender for the extension.\n\nDefinitions and links for clarity\n- “Blue‑Raman East Africa extension”: For this question, this means branches (subsea and/or terrestrial) extending from Djibouti to one or more of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania that are part of the Blue‑Raman system or its officially associated branches, and which are explicitly referred to by name (“Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman”) together with at least one of the target countries or the phrase “East Africa extension” in the title or body of an official document. Canonical background on Blue‑Raman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system.\n- “Invitation to tender/Contract notice”: A formal procurement notice inviting suppliers to submit offers; for EU‑threshold contracts, such notices and subsequent contract award notices are published in the Supplement to the Official Journal via TED.\n- “Publicly available”: Accessible online without paywall. If a paywall applies but the document is also accessible via an official public portal listed under Resolution Sources below, it counts.\n- Timezone and window for eligible actions: 00:00 UTC on 2025‑06‑20 through 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31. Start date aligns with the Rome summit that announced the intent to extend Blue‑Raman to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n\nKey references to the June 2025 announcement and platforms for resolution\n- Summit quote and context: \n- Media coverage of EU‑Italy co‑financing intent: \n- What Blue‑Raman is: \n- TED definition and role: \n- EU Funding & Tenders Portal role: \n- EIB project procurement portal context:\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"431b38715bacac38\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves to Yes if, between 00:00 UTC on 2025‑06‑20 and 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31, at least one of the following is publicly available and verifiable:\n\nA) A signed financing, grant, or loan agreement by an EU institution (e.g., the European Commission or the European Investment Bank) and/or the Government of Italy that is specifically for the Blue‑Raman East Africa extension (as defined above), where the document explicitly references “Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman” and at least one of Somalia, Kenya, or Tanzania in describing the financed scope. Acceptable evidence includes official press releases or official agreement documents on the European Commission’s Press Corner, the EIB website, or Italian government ministries’ websites (e.g., Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation or Ministry of Economy and Finance). The June 2025 intent announcement alone does not qualify.\n\nOR\n\nB) An official procurement notice initiating supplier competition (a contract notice/invitation to tender) that explicitly names “Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman” and at least one of Somalia, Kenya, or Tanzania and is clearly for works, supplies, or services for the extension from Djibouti to the named country/countries. The notice must be published on one of the following official portals: TED (Tenders Electronic Daily) , the EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal , or the EIB Project Procurement page. General digital connectivity calls without explicit Blue‑Raman naming do not qualify. Definitions of contract notices and their standard publication on TED are per EU procurement practices.\n\nIf neither A nor B occurs within the stated window, resolve No.\n\nAdditional notes for the resolver\n- “Specifically for” requires that the text of the agreement or notice identifies Blue‑Raman by name and ties the scope to at least one of Somalia, Kenya, or Tanzania (e.g., “Blue‑Raman extension to Kenya”). Generic references to “digital backbone,” “subsea cables,” or “East Africa connectivity” without explicit Blue‑Raman naming do not qualify.\n- “Signed agreement” means an executed legal instrument (e.g., grant agreement, financing agreement, or loan agreement). Where only a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) or Letter of Intent is available without legal effect, do not count it unless the MoU text states it is the executed financing instrument for the extension.\n- Evidence hierarchy: Prefer a single, direct source document on TED , the EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal , the EIB procurement page , the EIB press release page, or official EU/Italian government press releases. If multiple sources disagree, the resolver should prioritize the primary legal/official notice (e.g., the contract notice or the signed agreement itself) over secondary reporting.\n- Pars pro toto choice: Financing/tender issuance is used as a clear proxy for concrete follow‑through on the June 2025 political announcement.\n\nAccepted resolution sources (non‑exhaustive examples)\n- TED (Tenders Electronic Daily): https://ted.europa.eu \n- EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/home \n- EIB Project Procurement: https://www.eib.org/en/about/procurement/project-procurement \n\nBackground sources for context (do not themselves resolve the question)\n- June 2025 summit quote/context on extension to Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania: \n- Media report on EU‑Italy co‑financing intent: \n- Blue‑Raman system description: \n- EU procurement practice definitions: \n\nThe question resolves once the window closes at 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31, based on the presence or absence of qualifying evidence as described above.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40644, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763017052.411828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763017052.411828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21000000000000002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21000000000000002 ], "means": [ 0.2359922480620155 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What Blue‑Raman is: The Blue‑Raman cable system is a proposed intercontinental subsea fiber‑optic system linking France to India, with segments known as “Blue” (Mediterranean) and “Raman” (Red Sea/Arabian Sea). The route includes Djibouti on the African side of the Red Sea, and is notable for bypassing the Egyptian chokepoint. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system\n- The June 2025 announcement: At the Rome summit “The Mattei Plan for Africa and Global Gateway: A common effort with the African Continent,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “Now, together with Italy, we will finance an extension of Blue‑Raman from its African hub in Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya and Tanzania.” The statement framed this as part of the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and Italy’s Mattei Plan. Media coverage around the event likewise reported the EU and Italy would co‑finance expanding the Blue‑Raman fiber‑optic cable from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n- Why this matters for forecasting: Political announcements often precede but do not guarantee concrete financing instruments (e.g., signed grant/loan agreements) or procurement actions (e.g., contract notices/tenders). This question asks whether that June 2025 intent will translate into publicly verifiable financing or procurement steps for the East Africa extension by year‑end 2025.\n- Where such actions are typically published:\n • Tenders Electronic Daily (TED) is the online version of the EU’s Supplement to the Official Journal dedicated to public procurement notices. See: https://ted.europa.eu\n • The EU Funding & Tenders Opportunities Portal is the European Commission’s single entry point (SEDIA) for funding programmes and tenders managed by the Commission and other EU bodies. See: https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/home\n • The European Investment Bank (EIB) maintains an official project procurement page listing contract notices for EIB‑financed projects (often used for operations outside the EU). See: https://www.eib.org/en/about/procurement/project-procurement\n- Status quo from cited sources: The cited June 2025 materials describe intent to support/finance an extension from Djibouti to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania but do not themselves constitute a signed financing agreement or a published tender for the extension.\n\nDefinitions and links for clarity\n- “Blue‑Raman East Africa extension”: For this question, this means branches (subsea and/or terrestrial) extending from Djibouti to one or more of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania that are part of the Blue‑Raman system or its officially associated branches, and which are explicitly referred to by name (“Blue Raman” or “Blue‑Raman”) together with at least one of the target countries or the phrase “East Africa extension” in the title or body of an official document. Canonical background on Blue‑Raman: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue-Raman_cable_system.\n- “Invitation to tender/Contract notice”: A formal procurement notice inviting suppliers to submit offers; for EU‑threshold contracts, such notices and subsequent contract award notices are published in the Supplement to the Official Journal via TED.\n- “Publicly available”: Accessible online without paywall. If a paywall applies but the document is also accessible via an official public portal listed under Resolution Sources below, it counts.\n- Timezone and window for eligible actions: 00:00 UTC on 2025‑06‑20 through 23:59 UTC on 2025‑12‑31. Start date aligns with the Rome summit that announced the intent to extend Blue‑Raman to Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania.\n\nKey references to the June 2025 announcement and platforms for resolution\n- Summit quote and context: \n- Media coverage of EU‑Italy co‑financing intent: \n- What Blue‑Raman is: \n- TED definition and role: \n- EU Funding & Tenders Portal role: \n- EIB project procurement portal context:\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"431b38715bacac38\"}}`" }, { "id": 40643, "title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 3", "url_title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 3", "slug": "will-nhc-report-16-or-more-named-storms-for-the-2025-north-atlantic-season-by-2359-et-on-december-3", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.882244Z", "published_at": "2025-11-12T23:04:33Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T00:35:00.453941Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:07.110594Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-12T23:04:33Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40239, "title": "Will NHC report 16 or more named storms for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 ET on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.882654Z", "open_time": "2025-11-12T23:04:33Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-13T00:34:33Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01: NOAA projected an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting 13–19 total named storms (defined as storms with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) and officially running from June 1 to November 30. NOAA’s August mid-season update stated that a typical Atlantic season yields 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (based on 1991–2020 climatology) and kept expected ranges at 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page reported, as of 03 UTC on 30 September 2025, totals of 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.\n\nKey definitions and sources:\n- Named storm: A tropical or subtropical cyclone that attains maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph (34 knots) and is assigned an official name. NOAA explicitly defines the named-storm threshold as 39 mph or higher , and NHC’s tropical cyclone type legend shows that Tropical Storms (TS) and Subtropical Storms (SS) span 34–63 knots, with hurricanes at 64–95 knots and major hurricanes at 96 knots or higher; the NHC seasonal summary counts “Named Storms” inclusive of TS, SS, HU, and MH.\n- Naming procedure: Atlantic tropical storm names are maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); names are assigned according to these lists and may be retired for sensitivity reasons.\n- Official season dates: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.\n\nPrimary resolution source and current status page:\n- National Hurricane Center “2025 North Atlantic Summary” (NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index) at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ shows the live season totals, including the “Named Storms” count, and indicates update timestamps (e.g., “as of 03 UTC 30 September 2025”). As of the latest cited update time, it shows 9 named storms to date.\n\nWhy this threshold? Given NOAA’s outlook of 13–19 named storms and a typical baseline of 14 , alongside a status of 9 named storms by late September , a 16-storm threshold sits within the outlook range and should yield meaningful uncertainty for forecasters.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c757fee99c0d1098\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will the National Hurricane Center (NHC) list 16 or more “Named Storms” for the 2025 North Atlantic season by 23:59 Eastern Time (ET, UTC−5) on 2025-12-31?\n\nOperational definitions:\n- “Named Storms” means the “Named Storms” total as displayed on NHC’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page (the NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index for 2025: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) which counts tropical and subtropical cyclones that reached at least 34 knots (39 mph) sustained winds and were assigned an official name (i.e., includes TS, SS, HU, and MH per NHC’s legend).\n- “2025 North Atlantic season” refers to the season classification used by NHC on that page. We do not independently define eligibility dates beyond deferring to NHC’s assignment. For general context, the official Atlantic hurricane season spans June 1–November 30, but off-season named systems may still be counted by NHC in the season total; resolution depends solely on the NHC total shown on the specified page at the resolution time.\n- Time standard: ET on 2025-12-31 is Eastern Standard Time (UTC−5) at that date.\n\nResolution procedure:\n- Resolve YES if, at 23:59 ET (UTC−5) on 2025-12-31, the “Named Storms” value shown on the NHC 2025 North Atlantic Summary page is 16 or higher. Resolve NO otherwise.\n- If the page is temporarily inaccessible at that exact time, use the earliest available web snapshot at or immediately after 23:59 ET on 2025-12-31 (e.g., an archived capture) reflecting the NHC page’s contents at that time. If the NHC summary page is persistently unavailable on that date, the resolver may use official NOAA/NHC public reporting that explicitly states the total number of named storms for the 2025 Atlantic season as of year-end; however, post-season reanalysis or revisions published after 2025-12-31 do not affect the outcome.\n- Post-deadline changes: Any changes to the season total made by NHC/NOAA after 23:59 ET on 2025-12-31 (e.g., post-season reanalysis) will not be considered for resolution of this question.\n\nStatus baseline for forecasters (non-binding for resolution): As of 03 UTC on 30 September 2025, NHC reported 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes for the 2025 North Atlantic season. NOAA’s pre-season outlook projected 13–19 named storms (≥39 mph), and a typical season produces about 14 named storms.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40643, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762992805.122594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762992805.122594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1773256704980843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 2.0, 8.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01: NOAA projected an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting 13–19 total named storms (defined as storms with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or higher) and officially running from June 1 to November 30. NOAA’s August mid-season update stated that a typical Atlantic season yields 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (based on 1991–2020 climatology) and kept expected ranges at 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page reported, as of 03 UTC on 30 September 2025, totals of 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.\n\nKey definitions and sources:\n- Named storm: A tropical or subtropical cyclone that attains maximum sustained winds of at least 39 mph (34 knots) and is assigned an official name. NOAA explicitly defines the named-storm threshold as 39 mph or higher , and NHC’s tropical cyclone type legend shows that Tropical Storms (TS) and Subtropical Storms (SS) span 34–63 knots, with hurricanes at 64–95 knots and major hurricanes at 96 knots or higher; the NHC seasonal summary counts “Named Storms” inclusive of TS, SS, HU, and MH.\n- Naming procedure: Atlantic tropical storm names are maintained and updated by an international committee of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); names are assigned according to these lists and may be retired for sensitivity reasons.\n- Official season dates: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.\n\nPrimary resolution source and current status page:\n- National Hurricane Center “2025 North Atlantic Summary” (NHC Tropical Cyclone Reports index) at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/ shows the live season totals, including the “Named Storms” count, and indicates update timestamps (e.g., “as of 03 UTC 30 September 2025”). As of the latest cited update time, it shows 9 named storms to date.\n\nWhy this threshold? Given NOAA’s outlook of 13–19 named storms and a typical baseline of 14 , alongside a status of 9 named storms by late September , a 16-storm threshold sits within the outlook range and should yield meaningful uncertainty for forecasters.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c757fee99c0d1098\"}}`" }, { "id": 40642, "title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on", "url_title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on", "slug": "will-arizona-execute-richard-kenneth-djerf-between-0000-utc-on-october-1-2025-and-235959-utc-on", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.432798Z", "published_at": "2025-11-12T09:05:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T10:36:00.242998Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.700623Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-12T09:05:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40238, "title": "Will Arizona execute Richard Kenneth Djerf between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.433435Z", "open_time": "2025-11-12T09:05:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T10:35:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of status quo as of October 1, 2025:\n- Scheduled execution: The Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) \"Upcoming Executions\" page lists Richard Djerf (Arizona) with an execution date of October 17, 2025.\n- Official state notice: The Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry (ADCRR) announced that the Arizona Supreme Court issued a warrant of execution for Richard Djerf (ADCRR #121385), scheduling the execution for Friday, October 17, 2025 at Arizona State Prison Complex–Florence, with the method of execution as lethal injection.\n- Additional reporting: Local public radio KJZZ reported the Arizona Supreme Court set the Oct 17, 2025 execution date; the story also notes method details and recent Arizona execution context. ABC News reported that Djerf stated he will not seek clemency, and confirmed the Oct 17 scheduled date.\n- Resolution source cadence: DPIC’s execution tracking pages state they are updated by 12 noon Eastern Time daily to reflect executions in the prior 24 hours. This applies to both the Upcoming Executions and the \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" pages.\n- Relevant definitions used by the resolution source: On DPIC’s \"Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025\" page, outcome categories are defined as Active, Inactive, and Executed, with Executed meaning the defendant was executed by the state or jurisdiction in which they were serving a death sentence.\n\nContext for forecasters:\n- Arizona has resumed executions in recent years and carried out executions in 2022 after a multi-year pause; media coverage notes recent activity and the possibility of litigation or administrative changes near execution dates.\n- Last-minute stays, reprieves, or logistical issues can change outcomes close to scheduled dates; DPIC’s Outcomes pages track such changes with event notes. Forecasters should monitor court filings, clemency actions, and logistical updates from the state.\n\nDefined terms:\n- \"Arizona\" refers to the U.S. State of Arizona.\n- \"Richard Kenneth Djerf\" refers to the inmate identified by ADCRR #121385.\n- \"Execute\" means the defendant was put to death by the state under a lawfully imposed death sentence; for resolution purposes, this corresponds to DPIC’s outcome category \"Executed\".\n- Time window: All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The window opens at 00:00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and closes at 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025 (inclusive).\n\nKey sources (for verification and ongoing tracking):\n- DPIC Upcoming Executions: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions \n- DPIC List of Defendants Executed in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/2025 \n- DPIC Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2025 \n- ADCRR announcement: https://corrections.az.gov/news/execution-scheduled-inmate-richard-djerf-adcrr-121385 \n- KJZZ reporting: https://www.kjzz.org/kjzz-news/2025-08-20/arizona-supreme-court-sets-execution-date-for-richard-kenneth-djerf-for-oct-17 \n- ABC News reporting: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arizona-prisoner-set-executed-apologizes-wont-seek-clemency-125720007\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"379b0a4835a88850\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary resolution at 20:00 UTC on October 18, 2025.\n\nPrimary source of truth:\n- DPIC \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" page (https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/2025) which is updated daily by 12 noon Eastern Time to reflect executions in the previous 24 hours.\n\nHow we will resolve:\n- YES if, by the resolution time, the DPIC \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" page lists Richard (Kenneth) Djerf as executed by Arizona with a date of execution that falls within the defined UTC window (Oct 1–Oct 17, 2025, inclusive). For avoidance of doubt, the DPIC entry’s stated calendar date controls; if the DPIC entry shows an execution date of October 17, 2025 for Arizona—Richard Djerf, the question resolves YES.\n- NO if, by the resolution time, the DPIC page does not list an execution of Richard Djerf within the window, or if DPIC’s relevant outcome on Djerf’s warrant indicates the execution did not occur on the scheduled date (e.g., the warrant is inactive/stayed/rescheduled), as reflected on DPIC’s Outcomes page.\n\nTie-breakers and fallbacks:\n- If the DPIC executions page is inaccessible or not updated by the resolution time, resolve using credible, independent reporting from at least two of the following outlets confirming whether the execution occurred within the window: Associated Press, Reuters, or the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry official announcements/newsroom. If ADCRR has posted an execution confirmation for Djerf dated October 17, 2025, that will count as sufficient state confirmation. If credible reporting indicates the execution did not occur on or before October 17, resolve NO.\n\nClarifications:\n- Name normalization: \"Richard Djerf\" and \"Richard Kenneth Djerf\" refer to the same person (ADCRR #121385).\n- Timezone: The window is defined in UTC for clarity. Because DPIC lists executions by calendar date without timezone specification, the DPIC-stated execution date governs the determination.\n- Start date: Only executions occurring between 00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025 (inclusive) are eligible for a YES outcome.\n- Event definition: \"Executed\" corresponds to DPIC’s definition that the defendant was executed by the state where they were under sentence of death.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40642, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762942662.782028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762942662.782028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.913691570881226 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 5.0, 3.0, 45.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of status quo as of October 1, 2025:\n- Scheduled execution: The Death Penalty Information Center (DPIC) \"Upcoming Executions\" page lists Richard Djerf (Arizona) with an execution date of October 17, 2025.\n- Official state notice: The Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry (ADCRR) announced that the Arizona Supreme Court issued a warrant of execution for Richard Djerf (ADCRR #121385), scheduling the execution for Friday, October 17, 2025 at Arizona State Prison Complex–Florence, with the method of execution as lethal injection.\n- Additional reporting: Local public radio KJZZ reported the Arizona Supreme Court set the Oct 17, 2025 execution date; the story also notes method details and recent Arizona execution context. ABC News reported that Djerf stated he will not seek clemency, and confirmed the Oct 17 scheduled date.\n- Resolution source cadence: DPIC’s execution tracking pages state they are updated by 12 noon Eastern Time daily to reflect executions in the prior 24 hours. This applies to both the Upcoming Executions and the \"List of Defendants Executed in 2025\" pages.\n- Relevant definitions used by the resolution source: On DPIC’s \"Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025\" page, outcome categories are defined as Active, Inactive, and Executed, with Executed meaning the defendant was executed by the state or jurisdiction in which they were serving a death sentence.\n\nContext for forecasters:\n- Arizona has resumed executions in recent years and carried out executions in 2022 after a multi-year pause; media coverage notes recent activity and the possibility of litigation or administrative changes near execution dates.\n- Last-minute stays, reprieves, or logistical issues can change outcomes close to scheduled dates; DPIC’s Outcomes pages track such changes with event notes. Forecasters should monitor court filings, clemency actions, and logistical updates from the state.\n\nDefined terms:\n- \"Arizona\" refers to the U.S. State of Arizona.\n- \"Richard Kenneth Djerf\" refers to the inmate identified by ADCRR #121385.\n- \"Execute\" means the defendant was put to death by the state under a lawfully imposed death sentence; for resolution purposes, this corresponds to DPIC’s outcome category \"Executed\".\n- Time window: All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The window opens at 00:00:00 UTC on October 1, 2025 and closes at 23:59:59 UTC on October 17, 2025 (inclusive).\n\nKey sources (for verification and ongoing tracking):\n- DPIC Upcoming Executions: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions \n- DPIC List of Defendants Executed in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/2025 \n- DPIC Outcomes of Death Warrants in 2025: https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/executions/upcoming-executions/outcomes-of-warrants/outcomes-of-death-warrants-in-2025 \n- ADCRR announcement: https://corrections.az.gov/news/execution-scheduled-inmate-richard-djerf-adcrr-121385 \n- KJZZ reporting: https://www.kjzz.org/kjzz-news/2025-08-20/arizona-supreme-court-sets-execution-date-for-richard-kenneth-djerf-for-oct-17 \n- ABC News reporting: https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/arizona-prisoner-set-executed-apologizes-wont-seek-clemency-125720007\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"379b0a4835a88850\"}}`" }, { "id": 40641, "title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dated between 2025-10-18 and 2025-12-27 (inclusive)?", "short_title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dat", "url_title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dat", "slug": "will-any-song-credited-to-billie-eilish-rank-in-the-top-10-of-the-billboard-hot-100-on-any-chart-dat", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.942353Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T22:44:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:15:00.195339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:06.165527Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:44:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40237, "title": "Will any song credited to Billie Eilish rank in the Top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100 on any chart dated between 2025-10-18 and 2025-12-27 (inclusive)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.942759Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:44:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-12T00:14:25Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview of the Billboard Hot 100: The Billboard Hot 100 is the industry-standard weekly U.S. songs chart. Rankings combine streaming activity, radio airplay audience impressions, and sales data, all tracked/compiled by Luminate. The chart is refreshed weekly on Billboard.com, typically on Tuesdays (or Wednesdays in weeks with Monday holidays), and is post-dated to the following Saturday; tracking periods generally run Friday–Thursday.\n\nChart dating and source pages: Billboard publishes a dated Hot 100 page at URLs of the form https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/YYYY-MM-DD/. Examples confirm that dated endpoints display the corresponding Hot 100 chart (e.g., 2025-01-18 and 2023-10-21).\n\nArtist credit conventions on Billboard: On Hot 100 pages, artists are displayed next to the song title. Collaborations are shown via “&”, “Featuring”, and sometimes “With”; a song counts for an artist if that artist’s name appears in the artist credit line on the chart entry for that week.\n\nWhy this question is plausible and uncertain: Billie Eilish had substantial Hot 100 momentum in 2024–2025. All 10 tracks from her album “Hit Me Hard and Soft” debuted in the Hot 100 top 40 in May 2024. Her single “Birds of a Feather” peaked at No. 2 on the Hot 100 and charted for over 52 weeks, with strong multiformat performance through 2025. However, it is uncertain whether she will secure any additional or sustained Top 10 entries specifically during late Q4 2025, making the outcome non-trivial.\n\nNotes for forecasters: Focus on (a) Eilish’s release and promotion schedule, (b) anticipated Q4 holiday effects and competing major releases, and (c) radio and streaming trajectories for any current singles. Resolution uses a single authoritative source (Billboard’s dated Hot 100 pages) and does not depend on proprietary forecasts.\n\nKey definitions used below are tied to Billboard’s published methodology and chart pages.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4147a12c23fe75b9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Eligible window and chart dates: The eligible charts are the Billboard Hot 100 charts dated on the following Saturdays in 2025, inclusive: 2025-10-18, 2025-10-25, 2025-11-01, 2025-11-08, 2025-11-15, 2025-11-22, 2025-11-29, 2025-12-06, 2025-12-13, 2025-12-20, and 2025-12-27.\n\nPrimary resolution source: For each eligible date, check the corresponding Billboard chart page at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/YYYY-MM-DD/ to verify ranks and credits. Examples of this dated-URL pattern and page format are confirmed for 2025-01-18 and 2023-10-21.\n\nDefinitions (must be satisfied on the chart page for the date in question):\n- Billboard Hot 100: The weekly all-genre U.S. songs chart ranked by streaming, radio airplay audience impressions, and sales, compiled by Luminate and published by Billboard.\n- Chart date: The Saturday-dated issue week used by Billboard; charts are compiled on weekly tracking periods and post-dated to Saturday.\n- Top 10: Positions 1 through 10 as displayed on the Hot 100 chart page for that date.\n- “Song credited to Billie Eilish”: Any Hot 100 entry for which the artist credit line includes “Billie Eilish,” whether solely or in collaboration, including credit formats using “&”, “Featuring”, or “With,” as displayed on the chart page. Remixes or alternate versions count if they appear as the charted entry with “Billie Eilish” in the artist credit on the Hot 100 page for that date.\n\nResolution rule: Resolve YES if any of the eligible Billboard Hot 100 chart pages dated between 2025-10-18 and 2025-12-27 (inclusive) shows at least one entry with “Billie Eilish” in the artist credit at ranks 1–10. Otherwise resolve NO.\n\nTiming: Resolution occurs once Billboard has published the last eligible chart (dated 2025-12-27), which typically appears on Billboard.com by the Tuesday of that week; if publication is delayed due to a Monday holiday, charts may update Wednesday. If any page is temporarily unavailable, use a cached or archived version of the same Billboard URL. All determinations should be based solely on the content of the Billboard chart page(s) for the relevant dates.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40641, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762904767.985411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762904767.985411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.2569310344827586 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 2.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview of the Billboard Hot 100: The Billboard Hot 100 is the industry-standard weekly U.S. songs chart. Rankings combine streaming activity, radio airplay audience impressions, and sales data, all tracked/compiled by Luminate. The chart is refreshed weekly on Billboard.com, typically on Tuesdays (or Wednesdays in weeks with Monday holidays), and is post-dated to the following Saturday; tracking periods generally run Friday–Thursday.\n\nChart dating and source pages: Billboard publishes a dated Hot 100 page at URLs of the form https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/YYYY-MM-DD/. Examples confirm that dated endpoints display the corresponding Hot 100 chart (e.g., 2025-01-18 and 2023-10-21).\n\nArtist credit conventions on Billboard: On Hot 100 pages, artists are displayed next to the song title. Collaborations are shown via “&”, “Featuring”, and sometimes “With”; a song counts for an artist if that artist’s name appears in the artist credit line on the chart entry for that week.\n\nWhy this question is plausible and uncertain: Billie Eilish had substantial Hot 100 momentum in 2024–2025. All 10 tracks from her album “Hit Me Hard and Soft” debuted in the Hot 100 top 40 in May 2024. Her single “Birds of a Feather” peaked at No. 2 on the Hot 100 and charted for over 52 weeks, with strong multiformat performance through 2025. However, it is uncertain whether she will secure any additional or sustained Top 10 entries specifically during late Q4 2025, making the outcome non-trivial.\n\nNotes for forecasters: Focus on (a) Eilish’s release and promotion schedule, (b) anticipated Q4 holiday effects and competing major releases, and (c) radio and streaming trajectories for any current singles. Resolution uses a single authoritative source (Billboard’s dated Hot 100 pages) and does not depend on proprietary forecasts.\n\nKey definitions used below are tied to Billboard’s published methodology and chart pages.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4147a12c23fe75b9\"}}`" }, { "id": 40640, "title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in Sabah or Sarawak as eligible for subsidised RON95 under BUDI95 or SKPS?", "short_title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in", "url_title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in", "slug": "between-oct-1-and-dec-31-2025-utc-will-malaysian-authorities-formally-include-boat-operators-in", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.421981Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T09:43:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T11:14:00.339269Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.716698Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T09:43:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40236, "title": "Between Oct 1 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Malaysian authorities formally include boat operators in Sabah or Sarawak as eligible for subsidised RON95 under BUDI95 or SKPS?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.422390Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T09:43:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T11:13:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of Oct 1, 2025:\n- BUDI95 (Budi Madani RON95) is Malaysia’s targeted fuel subsidy that allows eligible Malaysians to purchase RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre, up to a 300‑litre monthly limit; the retail price of non‑subsidised RON95 is RM2.60 per litre. The programme commenced nationwide on Sept 30, 2025. Related government communications also note appeals channels for users of petrol‑powered equipment (e.g., fishermen/farmers/boat owners), but these do not constitute formal, enumerated eligibility categories under BUDI95.\n- Officials have publicly said the government is considering extending subsidised fuel eligibility to boat operators, especially in Sabah and Sarawak, and expressed openness to doing so (e.g., Second Finance Minister statements and media briefings in late Sept 2025).\n- SKPS (Sistem Kawalan Petrol Bersubsidi) is KPDN’s system through which companies in selected public and goods land transport categories apply for RON95 subsidy via MySubsidi and fleet cards; registration opened Sept 15, 2025, with a cash refund mechanism starting Sept 30, 2025 for firms awaiting fleet cards, covering 21 transport categories in the land sector. SKPS is administered via MySubsidi (KPDN) and includes processes to apply and manage fleet card usage; the SKPS FAQ clarifies company application and fleet card procedures.\n- Definitions for key terms used below:\n • RON95: RON is the research octane number; RON95 gasoline has the anti‑knock quality equivalent to a mixture of 95% iso‑octane and 5% n‑heptane (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating).\n • Boat: A watercraft generally smaller than a ship, typically used on inland waterways or protected coastal areas (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boat) In modern terms, a boat is small enough to be carried aboard a ship.\n • Sabah: A state of Malaysia in northern Borneo, part of East Malaysia (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabah).\n • Sarawak: Malaysia’s largest state, in East Malaysia on Borneo’s northwest (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarawak).\n- Where to check for updates: MOF’s portal publishes press releases and policy announcements (News/Press Release sections) relevant to BUDI95. KPDN publishes SKPS press statements and FAQs on its official site. Major national media such as Malay Mail and The Star routinely carry official statements.\n\nWhy this is forecast‑worthy: As of late Sept/early Oct 2025, officials are actively considering but have not yet formally adopted an enumerated eligibility category for boat operators under BUDI95/SKPS. Policy could be expanded or deferred, and implementation details (scope limited to Sabah/Sarawak vs nationwide, and mechanism via BUDI95 vs SKPS) remain uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"00f24b3899f33d04\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on public, official documentation between Oct 1, 2025 00:00:00 UTC and Dec 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolve Yes if BOTH conditions are met by the cutoff:\n1) An official Malaysian government source publishes an announcement, directive, FAQ, policy document, or press release that explicitly lists “boat operators” (or a clearly equivalent term such as “small passenger boat operators,” “operators of boats with petrol outboard engines,” “outboard engine boat operators”) as an eligible category for subsidised RON95 under either:\n a) BUDI95 (the individual targeted RON95 subsidy scheme) ; or\n b) SKPS (the KPDN system for subsidised RON95 via MySubsidi/fleet cards).\n\nAND\n\n2) The eligibility applies to operators in Sabah or Sarawak. This can be satisfied in either of the following ways:\n • The official document explicitly references eligibility for boat operators “in Sabah” and/or “in Sarawak”; OR\n • The official document establishes a national eligibility category for boat operators under BUDI95 or SKPS, and there is no explicit exclusion of Sabah or Sarawak. Because BUDI95 is stated to be implemented nationwide , a national inclusion of boat operators under BUDI95 qualifies for this condition unless the document explicitly excludes Sabah or Sarawak.\n\nAdditionally, for a Yes resolution, the policy must have an effective date on or before Dec 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC, or clearly indicate that enrollment/claims for the newly eligible boat operator category are being accepted by that cutoff (e.g., via MySubsidi SKPS application acceptance or BUDI95 enrollment guidance). Mere mention of case‑by‑case “appeals” or ad hoc assistance without formal category inclusion does NOT count.\n\nResolve No if, by the cutoff, no official source has published an explicit eligibility category covering boat operators under BUDI95 or SKPS that applies to Sabah or Sarawak, or if any announcement is made but does not take effect (or accept enrollment/claims) by the cutoff.\n\nWhat counts as an official source:\n- Ministry of Finance (MOF) portal: News/Press Release/Press Citations sections.\n- KPDN (Domestic Trade and Cost of Living Ministry) official site: press statements/FAQs/announcements related to SKPS and BUDI95.\n- Official Sabah or Sarawak state ministry portals (e.g., transport, domestic trade) carrying formal notices.\n- Major national outlets (e.g., Malay Mail, The Star) quoting and linking to official documents or carrying verbatim official statements.\n\nImportant clarifications:\n- “Explicitly lists” means the official document uses one of the defined phrases (e.g., “boat operators,” “small passenger boat operators,” “outboard engine boats/operators”) to identify a category; general terms like “fishermen/farmers” without explicit inclusion of boat operators do not count.\n- “Eligible for subsidised RON95 under BUDI95/SKPS” means inclusion as a formal category within the scheme’s published rules/FAQs/press releases that confers access to the RM1.99/L BUDI95 benefit up to the monthly cap , or SKPS fleet‑card/cash refund mechanisms for the relevant category.\n- Geographic scope: Sabah and Sarawak are defined as Malaysian states on Borneo. If the category is national and not excluding these states, it is considered to apply there.\n\nStart date: Only announcements/effective dates between Oct 1, 2025 00:00:00 UTC and Dec 31, 2025 23:59:59 UTC are eligible for resolution.\n\nPrimary places to verify at resolution:\n- MOF portal news/press releases (https://www.mof.gov.my/portal/en).\n- KPDN media statements and SKPS FAQ pages (https://www.kpdn.gov.my/ …).\n- MySubsidi portal for SKPS category/enrollment status (https://mysubsidi.kpdn.gov.my/).\n- Major national media carrying official statements (e.g., Malay Mail, The Star).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40640, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762857868.436901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762857868.436901, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.681359848484849 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of Oct 1, 2025:\n- BUDI95 (Budi Madani RON95) is Malaysia’s targeted fuel subsidy that allows eligible Malaysians to purchase RON95 petrol at RM1.99 per litre, up to a 300‑litre monthly limit; the retail price of non‑subsidised RON95 is RM2.60 per litre. The programme commenced nationwide on Sept 30, 2025. Related government communications also note appeals channels for users of petrol‑powered equipment (e.g., fishermen/farmers/boat owners), but these do not constitute formal, enumerated eligibility categories under BUDI95.\n- Officials have publicly said the government is considering extending subsidised fuel eligibility to boat operators, especially in Sabah and Sarawak, and expressed openness to doing so (e.g., Second Finance Minister statements and media briefings in late Sept 2025).\n- SKPS (Sistem Kawalan Petrol Bersubsidi) is KPDN’s system through which companies in selected public and goods land transport categories apply for RON95 subsidy via MySubsidi and fleet cards; registration opened Sept 15, 2025, with a cash refund mechanism starting Sept 30, 2025 for firms awaiting fleet cards, covering 21 transport categories in the land sector. SKPS is administered via MySubsidi (KPDN) and includes processes to apply and manage fleet card usage; the SKPS FAQ clarifies company application and fleet card procedures.\n- Definitions for key terms used below:\n • RON95: RON is the research octane number; RON95 gasoline has the anti‑knock quality equivalent to a mixture of 95% iso‑octane and 5% n‑heptane (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Octane_rating).\n • Boat: A watercraft generally smaller than a ship, typically used on inland waterways or protected coastal areas (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boat) In modern terms, a boat is small enough to be carried aboard a ship.\n • Sabah: A state of Malaysia in northern Borneo, part of East Malaysia (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabah).\n • Sarawak: Malaysia’s largest state, in East Malaysia on Borneo’s northwest (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarawak).\n- Where to check for updates: MOF’s portal publishes press releases and policy announcements (News/Press Release sections) relevant to BUDI95. KPDN publishes SKPS press statements and FAQs on its official site. Major national media such as Malay Mail and The Star routinely carry official statements.\n\nWhy this is forecast‑worthy: As of late Sept/early Oct 2025, officials are actively considering but have not yet formally adopted an enumerated eligibility category for boat operators under BUDI95/SKPS. Policy could be expanded or deferred, and implementation details (scope limited to Sabah/Sarawak vs nationwide, and mechanism via BUDI95 vs SKPS) remain uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"00f24b3899f33d04\"}}`" }, { "id": 40639, "title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?", "short_title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik", "url_title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik", "slug": "between-oct-15-and-dec-31-2025-utc-will-russia-or-belarus-officially-announce-that-the-oreshnik", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.920672Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T08:14:48Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T09:45:00.200924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:05.149913Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T08:14:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40235, "title": "Between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (UTC), will Russia or Belarus officially announce that the “Oreshnik” missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.921081Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T08:14:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T09:44:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is “Oreshnik”? Reuters describes Oreshnik as an intermediate-range ballistic/hypersonic missile system. In late 2024, President Vladimir Putin said Russia could deploy Oreshnik to Belarus in the second half of 2025. Reuters has reported various claimed characteristics, including that it is an intermediate-range hypersonic system with a range up to about 5,500 km, and that Russia first used it in combat in November 2024 in Ukraine.\n- Relevant recent reporting: (a) On 2024-12-06, Reuters reported Putin said Oreshnik could be deployed to Belarus in late 2025 and that Belarus would determine targets for any Oreshnik on its territory. (b) On 2025-06-23, Reuters reported Putin said Russia was ramping up production of Oreshnik and reiterated that deployment to Belarus could occur in H2 2025. (c) On 2025-09-16, Reuters reported Moscow and Minsk rehearsed the use of tactical nuclear weapons and featured the Oreshnik in joint war games; the article reiterated that potential Belarus deployment had been signaled for the second half of 2025 and noted Russia’s first Oreshnik combat use occurred on 2024-11-21.\n- Why this matters: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons under Russian control, and joint exercises have featured nuclear-use rehearsals. A formal announcement that Oreshnik is deployed in Belarus would be a significant, verifiable military and geopolitical development, but as of today it remains uncertain whether such an announcement will be made in Q4 2025.\n\nKey definitions (with links):\n- Oreshnik missile system: The Russian “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile program as referenced by Russian officials and described by Reuters.\n- Belarusian territory: The internationally recognized territory of the Republic of Belarus (see country overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus).\n- Official announcement: A public statement posted on an official government channel or state news agency (see Resolution Criteria for an exhaustive list of qualifying sources) that explicitly states Oreshnik has been deployed/stationed/based in Belarus or is on combat duty in Belarus, using present or past tense (e.g., “has been deployed,” “is deployed,” “is on combat duty,” “is stationed/based”). Future/conditional language (e.g., “will be,” “could be,” “planned,” “considering”) does not qualify.\n\nStatus quo for forecasters: Public statements through mid-September 2025 repeatedly floated potential deployment in H2 2025 and incorporated Oreshnik in joint exercises, but did not themselves constitute an official deployment announcement to Belarus. This creates a non-trivial, time-bounded forecasting question for late 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"47d6e45f72b20bf9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will there be an official announcement that Russia’s Oreshnik missile system is deployed on Belarusian territory?\n\nWhat counts as a “Yes”:\n- A qualifying announcement is any public statement in Russian, Belarusian, or English, posted during the time window on at least one of the following official channels, that explicitly states (present or past tense) that Oreshnik has been deployed/stationed/based in Belarus or is on combat duty in Belarus:\n - Government/Ministry sites:\n - Kremlin/President of Russia: https://en.kremlin.ru or https://kremlin.ru\n - Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation: https://mil.ru\n - President of Belarus: https://president.gov.by\n - Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus: https://www.mil.by\n - State news agencies (Russia/Belarus):\n - TASS: https://tass.com or https://tass.ru\n - BelTA: https://www.belta.by\n- Acceptable wording includes, but is not limited to: “deployed in Belarus,” “stationed/based in Belarus,” “on (combat) duty in Belarus,” “has entered service in Belarus.” For clarity, Russian phrases such as «развернут(а/ы) в Беларуси», «размещён(а/ы) в Беларуси», «на боевом дежурстве в Беларуси» would qualify if used in reference to Oreshnik.\n- The announcement must clearly and unambiguously name Oreshnik (Орешник) or otherwise unambiguously identify Russia’s Oreshnik intermediate-range missile system described by Reuters.\n- If multiple qualifying announcements occur, the earliest within the window determines a “Yes.”\n\nWhat does NOT count:\n- Statements using only future/conditional language (e.g., “could,” “will,” “plans to,” “considering,” “intends”).\n- Reports of training, tests, site selection, transport, or exercise participation in Belarus without an explicit statement that the system is deployed/stationed/based/on combat duty in Belarus beyond a named exercise’s duration.\n- Third-party or anonymous-source media reports without a qualifying statement on the official channels above.\n\nEdge cases and tie-breakers:\n- Retractions/Corrections: If a qualifying announcement is officially retracted or corrected by the same type of source (e.g., Kremlin, MoD, TASS, BelTA) before 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, such that it clarifies Oreshnik is not deployed in Belarus, it will not count.\n- Language/translation: If only a non-English announcement exists, resolution will rely on the plain meaning in the original language. Public machine translations may be used to establish tense/meaning if needed.\n- Ambiguity: If the wording is ambiguous or does not mention Oreshnik by name or unmistakable description, it will not count.\n\nTime window (UTC):\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59\n\nResolution process and sources:\n- Primary: Verify via the specified official sites above.\n- Fallback: If a qualifying statement is made only via broadcast/briefing but is not posted online, two or more independent wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP, Bloomberg) quoting a named official on the record in their official capacity may be used to confirm the qualifying wording. Example outlet for context: Reuters coverage describing Oreshnik, its first combat use, and potential Belarus deployment timeline.\n\nOutcome:\n- Yes: At least one qualifying announcement occurs within the time window and is not retracted/corrected as described.\n- No: Otherwise (including no announcement, only future/conditional statements, or only exercise-related presence without qualifying wording).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40639, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762853854.009203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762853854.009203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.5962613636363638 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is “Oreshnik”? Reuters describes Oreshnik as an intermediate-range ballistic/hypersonic missile system. In late 2024, President Vladimir Putin said Russia could deploy Oreshnik to Belarus in the second half of 2025. Reuters has reported various claimed characteristics, including that it is an intermediate-range hypersonic system with a range up to about 5,500 km, and that Russia first used it in combat in November 2024 in Ukraine.\n- Relevant recent reporting: (a) On 2024-12-06, Reuters reported Putin said Oreshnik could be deployed to Belarus in late 2025 and that Belarus would determine targets for any Oreshnik on its territory. (b) On 2025-06-23, Reuters reported Putin said Russia was ramping up production of Oreshnik and reiterated that deployment to Belarus could occur in H2 2025. (c) On 2025-09-16, Reuters reported Moscow and Minsk rehearsed the use of tactical nuclear weapons and featured the Oreshnik in joint war games; the article reiterated that potential Belarus deployment had been signaled for the second half of 2025 and noted Russia’s first Oreshnik combat use occurred on 2024-11-21.\n- Why this matters: Belarus already hosts Russian tactical nuclear weapons under Russian control, and joint exercises have featured nuclear-use rehearsals. A formal announcement that Oreshnik is deployed in Belarus would be a significant, verifiable military and geopolitical development, but as of today it remains uncertain whether such an announcement will be made in Q4 2025.\n\nKey definitions (with links):\n- Oreshnik missile system: The Russian “Oreshnik” intermediate-range missile program as referenced by Russian officials and described by Reuters.\n- Belarusian territory: The internationally recognized territory of the Republic of Belarus (see country overview: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus).\n- Official announcement: A public statement posted on an official government channel or state news agency (see Resolution Criteria for an exhaustive list of qualifying sources) that explicitly states Oreshnik has been deployed/stationed/based in Belarus or is on combat duty in Belarus, using present or past tense (e.g., “has been deployed,” “is deployed,” “is on combat duty,” “is stationed/based”). Future/conditional language (e.g., “will be,” “could be,” “planned,” “considering”) does not qualify.\n\nStatus quo for forecasters: Public statements through mid-September 2025 repeatedly floated potential deployment in H2 2025 and incorporated Oreshnik in joint exercises, but did not themselves constitute an official deployment announcement to Belarus. This creates a non-trivial, time-bounded forecasting question for late 2025.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"47d6e45f72b20bf9\"}}`" }, { "id": 40638, "title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive, UTC)?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (", "url_title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (", "slug": "will-spacex-conduct-at-least-one-integrated-starship-flight-test-between-2025-10-15-and-2025-12-31", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.424678Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T06:17:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T07:48:00.249104Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.732083Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T06:17:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40234, "title": "Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive, UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.425062Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T06:17:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T07:47:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- SpaceX’s Starship is a two-stage launch system consisting of the Super Heavy first stage booster and the Starship upper stage. SpaceX refers to launches of the fully stacked system as Starship “flight tests.” These tests may be suborbital or orbital and are part of an iterative development program. SpaceX publishes per-flight pages and a Launches index on its website, which are suitable primary sources for whether a given Starship flight test lifted off and on what date/time.\n- Through August 26, 2025, SpaceX had conducted ten integrated Starship flight tests, with the tenth flight occurring on 2025-08-26.\n- The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issues commercial spaceflight licenses and sometimes publishes statements announcing authorization for specific Starship flight tests. These statements typically indicate that a flight “can proceed” or is “authorized for launch,” which is not, by itself, confirmation that a launch actually occurred.\n\nWhy this is forecast-relevant now:\n- The cadence of Starship flight tests in 2025, coupled with technical, regulatory (FAA), range, and weather constraints, creates genuine uncertainty over whether at least one integrated flight test will lift off during the late-2025 window defined below. Forecasters must weigh SpaceX’s readiness, pad availability, FAA approvals, and schedule risk against Starship’s demonstrated pace year-to-date.\n\nKey definitions and links (terminology):\n- Starship (SpaceX): SpaceX’s two-stage, fully reusable super heavy-lift launch system. Informational link: https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/\n- Super Heavy: The first stage booster of the Starship system. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy\n- Integrated Starship flight test (for this question): A test launch attempt in which a Starship upper stage is stacked atop a Super Heavy booster and the fully integrated vehicle lifts off from a launch pad (i.e., the stack physically leaves the pad under its own thrust). Suborbital and orbital trajectories both qualify. Static fires, wet dress rehearsals, or any ground tests without liftoff do not qualify.\n- Liftoff: The moment the launch vehicle leaves the pad, initiating powered ascent. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch\n- Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): The time standard used for this question’s timing window. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c68fc979b5d9497c\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will SpaceX conduct at least one integrated Starship flight test between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, inclusive?\n\nEligible events:\n- An eligible event is a Starship integrated flight test as defined above: the fully stacked Starship (upper stage) atop Super Heavy (first stage) lifts off from a launch pad, regardless of trajectory (suborbital/orbital), launch site (e.g., Starbase, Texas; LC-39A, Florida; or any other site), or mission disposition (reusable/expended).\n- Scrubs, countdowns, static fires, wet dress rehearsals, and any other ground tests that do not reach liftoff are not counted. Single-vehicle hop tests (e.g., Ship-only or Booster-only) are not counted because they are not integrated.\n\nTime window and timezone:\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC.\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n- Inclusive of both endpoints. If a source reports only local time, the resolver will convert that time to UTC to determine inclusion. If multiple times are reported, the resolver will prefer UTC if available.\n\nPrimary resolution source (must be satisfied by at least one of the following):\n- SpaceX official per-flight page for a Starship “flight test” (e.g., a page titled in the style of “Starship’s [Nth] Flight Test”) that explicitly states that the flight lifted off on a date/time that falls within the above UTC window, or\n- SpaceX’s Launches index page showing a Starship flight test entry with a date/time within the above UTC window.\n\nSecondary fallback (only if the SpaceX website is unavailable or lacks a per-flight/Launches entry for the event by 2026-01-15):\n- At least two independent credible reports from major wire services or authoritative space publications explicitly confirming that a Starship integrated flight test lifted off, with the date/time convertible to UTC within the window. Acceptable examples include (but are not limited to): Associated Press (AP), Reuters, Agence France-Presse (AFP), Spaceflight Now, Ars Technica, or NASA’s news releases. If used, the resolver will archive or screenshot the relevant reports.\n\nAdditional guidance for resolvers:\n- FAA statements of authorization alone do not confirm that a launch occurred; they only indicate permission to conduct launch operations. FAA authorizations may be used as corroborating context but are insufficient without confirmation of liftoff from the primary or fallback sources.\n- If SpaceX’s materials and independent reporting conflict on whether liftoff occurred within the window, SpaceX’s official materials take precedence for this question’s resolution. If SpaceX materials are unavailable and independent sources disagree, require at least two independent credible sources in agreement that liftoff occurred within the window.\n\nResolution:\n- YES if at least one eligible integrated Starship flight test reaches liftoff within the stated UTC window, as evidenced by the primary source (SpaceX website) or, if necessary, the secondary fallback.\n- NO otherwise.\n\nNotes on current status (for forecasters’ context, not part of resolution):\n- Through 2025-08-26, there have been 10 integrated flight tests, with Flight 10 occurring on 2025-08-26.\n- FAA communications in 2025 related to Starship frequently used phrasing such as “can now proceed” or “is authorized for launch,” which indicates authorization rather than confirmation of a launch.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40638, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762846517.421433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762846517.421433, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.375 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2878219696969696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-10-01:\n- SpaceX’s Starship is a two-stage launch system consisting of the Super Heavy first stage booster and the Starship upper stage. SpaceX refers to launches of the fully stacked system as Starship “flight tests.” These tests may be suborbital or orbital and are part of an iterative development program. SpaceX publishes per-flight pages and a Launches index on its website, which are suitable primary sources for whether a given Starship flight test lifted off and on what date/time.\n- Through August 26, 2025, SpaceX had conducted ten integrated Starship flight tests, with the tenth flight occurring on 2025-08-26.\n- The U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issues commercial spaceflight licenses and sometimes publishes statements announcing authorization for specific Starship flight tests. These statements typically indicate that a flight “can proceed” or is “authorized for launch,” which is not, by itself, confirmation that a launch actually occurred.\n\nWhy this is forecast-relevant now:\n- The cadence of Starship flight tests in 2025, coupled with technical, regulatory (FAA), range, and weather constraints, creates genuine uncertainty over whether at least one integrated flight test will lift off during the late-2025 window defined below. Forecasters must weigh SpaceX’s readiness, pad availability, FAA approvals, and schedule risk against Starship’s demonstrated pace year-to-date.\n\nKey definitions and links (terminology):\n- Starship (SpaceX): SpaceX’s two-stage, fully reusable super heavy-lift launch system. Informational link: https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/\n- Super Heavy: The first stage booster of the Starship system. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy\n- Integrated Starship flight test (for this question): A test launch attempt in which a Starship upper stage is stacked atop a Super Heavy booster and the fully integrated vehicle lifts off from a launch pad (i.e., the stack physically leaves the pad under its own thrust). Suborbital and orbital trajectories both qualify. Static fires, wet dress rehearsals, or any ground tests without liftoff do not qualify.\n- Liftoff: The moment the launch vehicle leaves the pad, initiating powered ascent. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_launch\n- Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): The time standard used for this question’s timing window. Informational link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c68fc979b5d9497c\"}}`" }, { "id": 40637, "title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?", "short_title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-1", "url_title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-1", "slug": "will-the-met-offices-uk-storm-centre-record-at-least-three-storms-as-date-named-between-2025-10-1", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.918568Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:52:00.169510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:04.228198Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40233, "title": "Will the Met Office’s UK Storm Centre record at least three storms as “Date named” between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC) on the 2025/26 list?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.918985Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:21:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:51:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Overview and scheme: The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands jointly operate the \"Name our storms\" initiative via the Met Office (UK), Met Éireann (Ireland), and KNMI (Netherlands). The Met Office confirms the 2025/26 names list (Amy, Bram, Chandra, Dave, Eddie, Fionnuala, Gerard, Hannah, Isla, Janna, Kasia, Lilith, Marty, Nico, Oscar, Patrick, Ruby, Stevie, Tadhg, Violet, Wubbo) and the joint scheme partners. The Met Office’s UK Storm Centre page hosts the season’s table titled \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" with a \"Date named\" column and is updated throughout the season with named storms and associated dates.\n\nWhat constitutes a named storm: According to the Met Office, “a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning,” based on the National Severe Weather Warnings Service’s impact and likelihood framework. Storms are usually named for wind impacts but can include rain (e.g., flooding) or snow impacts. Any of the three partners (Met Office, Met Éireann, or KNMI) may assign the next alphabetical name when criteria are met.\n\nSeason timing and recent activity: The Met Office describes the storm-names list as running from early September to late August to align with the period when low-pressure systems are most likely. For context, the 2024/25 season saw six named storms in total, with three occurring between mid-October and early December 2024 (Ashley on Oct 20–21; Bert and Conall on Nov 21–27; Darragh on Dec 6–7). As of 2025-09-30, the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table shows no storms yet populated with a \"Date named\" value, indicating none have been named so far this season.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Met Office UK Storm Centre page (live, continuously updated) is the single source of truth for this question: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nDefinitions used in this question:\n- \"Named storm\" means a weather system that has been formally assigned a name under the joint UK–Ireland–Netherlands \"Name our storms\" scheme, and for which the UK Storm Centre table records a non-empty \"Date named\" entry.\n- \"Date named\" refers to the calendar date shown in the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table on the UK Storm Centre page; this date is used for counting and comparison without inferring a time-of-day unless explicitly shown.\n- \"Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)\" means the inclusive window from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If \"Date named\" is displayed without a time, treat it as the whole calendar day and include it if the date falls within the inclusive range.\n- Only storms that appear as entries in the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table count toward the total, ensuring alignment with the UK–Ireland–Netherlands naming scheme.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"cb5b86b1fb39e195\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Data to check: Use the Met Office UK Storm Centre page’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table and its \"Date named\" column as displayed at or after 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nSteps:\n1) Navigate to the page and locate the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table.\n2) For each distinct storm name listed in that table, read the \"Date named\" entry.\n3) Count how many storms have a \"Date named\" that falls within the inclusive window 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC to 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If the table provides only a calendar date (no time), include any dates from 2025-10-15 through 2025-12-31 inclusive. If a time-of-day is provided, compare using UTC.\n\nOutcome: Resolve Yes if the count is greater than or equal to 3; resolve No otherwise.\n\nEdge cases and clarifications:\n- Each named storm is counted once (distinct names). Revisions or corrections to dates are taken as shown on the UK Storm Centre page at resolution time.\n- Only storms that appear in the UK Storm Centre’s 2025/26 table are eligible for counting (names from other basins or agencies that do not appear in this table do not count).\n- If the UK Storm Centre page is temporarily unavailable, attempt again within a reasonable time window on or shortly after 2025-12-31; the page is maintained continuously by the Met Office.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40637, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762832854.489234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3825 ], "centers": [ 0.4925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762832854.489234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3825 ], "centers": [ 0.4925 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5075000000000001, 0.4925 ], "means": [ 0.4977272727272725 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Overview and scheme: The UK, Ireland, and the Netherlands jointly operate the \"Name our storms\" initiative via the Met Office (UK), Met Éireann (Ireland), and KNMI (Netherlands). The Met Office confirms the 2025/26 names list (Amy, Bram, Chandra, Dave, Eddie, Fionnuala, Gerard, Hannah, Isla, Janna, Kasia, Lilith, Marty, Nico, Oscar, Patrick, Ruby, Stevie, Tadhg, Violet, Wubbo) and the joint scheme partners. The Met Office’s UK Storm Centre page hosts the season’s table titled \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" with a \"Date named\" column and is updated throughout the season with named storms and associated dates.\n\nWhat constitutes a named storm: According to the Met Office, “a storm will be named when it has the potential to cause disruption or damage which could result in an amber or red warning,” based on the National Severe Weather Warnings Service’s impact and likelihood framework. Storms are usually named for wind impacts but can include rain (e.g., flooding) or snow impacts. Any of the three partners (Met Office, Met Éireann, or KNMI) may assign the next alphabetical name when criteria are met.\n\nSeason timing and recent activity: The Met Office describes the storm-names list as running from early September to late August to align with the period when low-pressure systems are most likely. For context, the 2024/25 season saw six named storms in total, with three occurring between mid-October and early December 2024 (Ashley on Oct 20–21; Bert and Conall on Nov 21–27; Darragh on Dec 6–7). As of 2025-09-30, the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table shows no storms yet populated with a \"Date named\" value, indicating none have been named so far this season.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Met Office UK Storm Centre page (live, continuously updated) is the single source of truth for this question: https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/index.\n\nDefinitions used in this question:\n- \"Named storm\" means a weather system that has been formally assigned a name under the joint UK–Ireland–Netherlands \"Name our storms\" scheme, and for which the UK Storm Centre table records a non-empty \"Date named\" entry.\n- \"Date named\" refers to the calendar date shown in the \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table on the UK Storm Centre page; this date is used for counting and comparison without inferring a time-of-day unless explicitly shown.\n- \"Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)\" means the inclusive window from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. If \"Date named\" is displayed without a time, treat it as the whole calendar day and include it if the date falls within the inclusive range.\n- Only storms that appear as entries in the UK Storm Centre’s \"Storm Names for 2025-26\" table count toward the total, ensuring alignment with the UK–Ireland–Netherlands naming scheme.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"cb5b86b1fb39e195\"}}`" }, { "id": 40636, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?", "short_title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Co", "url_title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Co", "slug": "between-0000-utc-on-28-september-2025-and-235959-utc-on-31-december-2025-will-the-un-security-co", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.390600Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T03:42:00.248169Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.723782Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40232, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025, will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution that modifies the scope or application of UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 “snapback” mechanism?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.391020Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T02:11:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T03:41:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the snapback is: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 (2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and included a “snapback” mechanism which re-applies the provisions of prior Iran-related UNSC resolutions if a JCPOA participant notifies the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran and the Council does not adopt a resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days. In that case, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) apply again as they did before 2231, effective at midnight GMT after the thirtieth day following notification.\n- Current status of snapback: The E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) notified the Council on 2025-08-28, triggering snapback. With no Council resolution adopted to continue relief, the UN reimposed the pre-2015 measures at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025-09-27), completing the snapback process. The reimposed measures cover nuclear, ballistic missile, arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel ban provisions from the listed resolutions.\n- Recent Council votes: On 2025-09-19, the Council failed to adopt a draft to maintain sanctions relief; the recorded vote was four in favour, nine against, two abstentions, and the text “was not adopted as it failed to obtain the required number of votes”. On 2025-09-26, a China–Russia draft for a six‑month technical extension to sanctions relief was also rejected by a vote of four in favour, nine against, and two abstentions, meaning the draft was not adopted; UN News likewise reported that the effort to extend sanctions relief failed and that snapback would proceed that weekend. Independent reporting corroborated the vote count and timing of reimposition (8 p.m. EDT on the Saturday following the vote).\n- Timeline considerations: UNSCR 2231’s 10‑year term was scheduled to cease in October 2025, but the snapback process re-applies earlier resolutions and associated measures regardless; states remain obliged to comply with the reimposed measures absent subsequent Council action.\n- What counts as an adoption procedurally: Security Council decisions on non‑procedural matters require at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member; a resolution that does not obtain the required votes or is vetoed is not adopted. A “United Nations Security Council resolution” is an act adopted by the 15‑member Council; in common practice, adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no P5 veto.\n- Why this is forecastable/high-entropy: The Council has recently been divided (two failed efforts to maintain relief), but could still consider alternative texts to modify, suspend, or carve out elements of the reimposed measures before year‑end. The Security Council Report previewed the late‑September votes and highlighted sharp divisions over legality and timing, suggesting ongoing procedural possibilities but uncertain prospects for passage.\n\nKey terms (with definitions/links):\n- “United Nations Security Council resolution” (UNSCR): A formal decision of the UN Security Council; adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no permanent‑member veto for non‑procedural matters (see UN voting system; general overview).\n- “Snapback” under UNSCR 2231: The mechanism by which, absent a Council resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days of notification of significant non‑performance, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929 re‑apply as they did before 2231.\n- “UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via snapback”: The measures that took effect again at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 pursuant to the snapback process described above, encompassing the obligations under UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929.\n- “Adopted” (re Council action): A draft is adopted if it receives the required number of affirmative votes (at least nine) and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters.\n\nEvidence sources for status quo:\n- UN press releases and meeting records documenting the failed adoption on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26.\n- UN News reporting on the 2025‑09‑26 failure and impending reimposition.\n- E3 and US statements detailing trigger and effective time of reimposition.\n- UN 2231 background page explaining the snapback process and re‑applied resolutions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c997d1ecf2649281\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window and timezone:\n- Eligible events must occur between 00:00:00 UTC on 28 September 2025 and 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025. The question resolves based on the status as of 23:59:59 UTC on 31 December 2025.\n\nWhat resolves “Yes”:\n- Resolve “Yes” if, within the above window, the UN Security Council adopts a resolution (see definitions) that modifies the scope or application of any of the UN measures reimposed on Iran via the UNSCR 2231 snapback process.\n- “Modifies the scope or application” means the adopted resolution does at least one of the following with respect to obligations arising under the reimposed resolutions (UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, 1929): amends, suspends, narrows, terminates in whole or in part, extends relief from, or creates binding exemptions to, these measures as they apply to Iran or to UN Member States’ obligations regarding Iran. Examples that would count include (non‑exhaustive): reinstating elements of sanctions relief terminated by snapback; establishing a binding humanitarian or technical carve‑out that exempts otherwise prohibited transactions; modifying listings/annexes where the legal effect is to change the binding obligations under the reimposed measures; or suspending enforcement of specified provisions for a defined period. The resolution text must make such changes operative vis‑à‑vis at least one of the reimposed measures.\n\nWhat does NOT count:\n- Non‑adopted drafts; presidential statements; press statements; committee guidelines; Secretariat notices; statements by individual member states or groups; actions solely under national/regional sanctions regimes; resolutions unrelated to Iran’s reimposed UN measures; or any text that does not change binding obligations stemming from the reimposed resolutions.\n\nDefinition of “adopted” and voting:\n- “Adopted” means the Council has approved the resolution in accordance with its voting rules (at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters). A draft that fails to obtain the required votes, or is vetoed, is not adopted. For general background on UNSCRs, see.\n\nPrimary resolution sources to use on 31 December 2025:\n- The text of the adopted resolution as published on un.org; the corresponding UN press release summarizing the meeting and vote; or the official meeting record (S/PV number) documenting adoption. The UN press releases for 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26 illustrate how adoption/non‑adoption is recorded. The UN’s description of Council voting procedures provides the adoption standard.\n\nAdjudication notes:\n- If multiple sources conflict, prioritize official UN documents (published resolution text, S/PV meeting record, UN press release). Secondary corroboration (e.g., UN News or major wire services) may be used only if UN primary sources are temporarily unavailable.\n\nStatus checks baseline (for forecasters):\n- As of 2025‑09‑30, snapback was triggered by the E3 on 2025‑08‑28 and completed at 00:00 GMT on 2025‑09‑28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025‑09‑27), restoring the pre‑2015 UN measures. Attempts to extend sanctions relief on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26 failed to be adopted, with the latter effort described by UN News as blocked and with reimposition proceeding that weekend. UNSCR 2231’s scheduled cessation in October 2025 does not negate the effect of snapback in re‑applying prior resolutions; subsequent Council action could nonetheless modify those reimposed measures.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40636, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762831709.499898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762831709.499898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1471589147286822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 9.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 29.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the snapback is: UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 2231 (2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and included a “snapback” mechanism which re-applies the provisions of prior Iran-related UNSC resolutions if a JCPOA participant notifies the Council of “significant non-performance” by Iran and the Council does not adopt a resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days. In that case, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696 (2006), 1737 (2006), 1747 (2007), 1803 (2008), 1835 (2008), and 1929 (2010) apply again as they did before 2231, effective at midnight GMT after the thirtieth day following notification.\n- Current status of snapback: The E3 (France, Germany, United Kingdom) notified the Council on 2025-08-28, triggering snapback. With no Council resolution adopted to continue relief, the UN reimposed the pre-2015 measures at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 (8:00 p.m. EDT on 2025-09-27), completing the snapback process. The reimposed measures cover nuclear, ballistic missile, arms embargo, asset freeze, and travel ban provisions from the listed resolutions.\n- Recent Council votes: On 2025-09-19, the Council failed to adopt a draft to maintain sanctions relief; the recorded vote was four in favour, nine against, two abstentions, and the text “was not adopted as it failed to obtain the required number of votes”. On 2025-09-26, a China–Russia draft for a six‑month technical extension to sanctions relief was also rejected by a vote of four in favour, nine against, and two abstentions, meaning the draft was not adopted; UN News likewise reported that the effort to extend sanctions relief failed and that snapback would proceed that weekend. Independent reporting corroborated the vote count and timing of reimposition (8 p.m. EDT on the Saturday following the vote).\n- Timeline considerations: UNSCR 2231’s 10‑year term was scheduled to cease in October 2025, but the snapback process re-applies earlier resolutions and associated measures regardless; states remain obliged to comply with the reimposed measures absent subsequent Council action.\n- What counts as an adoption procedurally: Security Council decisions on non‑procedural matters require at least nine affirmative votes and no veto by a permanent member; a resolution that does not obtain the required votes or is vetoed is not adopted. A “United Nations Security Council resolution” is an act adopted by the 15‑member Council; in common practice, adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no P5 veto.\n- Why this is forecastable/high-entropy: The Council has recently been divided (two failed efforts to maintain relief), but could still consider alternative texts to modify, suspend, or carve out elements of the reimposed measures before year‑end. The Security Council Report previewed the late‑September votes and highlighted sharp divisions over legality and timing, suggesting ongoing procedural possibilities but uncertain prospects for passage.\n\nKey terms (with definitions/links):\n- “United Nations Security Council resolution” (UNSCR): A formal decision of the UN Security Council; adoption requires nine affirmative votes and no permanent‑member veto for non‑procedural matters (see UN voting system; general overview).\n- “Snapback” under UNSCR 2231: The mechanism by which, absent a Council resolution to continue sanctions relief within 30 days of notification of significant non‑performance, the provisions of UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929 re‑apply as they did before 2231.\n- “UN sanctions reimposed on Iran via snapback”: The measures that took effect again at 00:00 GMT on 2025-09-28 pursuant to the snapback process described above, encompassing the obligations under UNSCRs 1696, 1737, 1747, 1803, 1835, and 1929.\n- “Adopted” (re Council action): A draft is adopted if it receives the required number of affirmative votes (at least nine) and no veto by a permanent member for non‑procedural matters.\n\nEvidence sources for status quo:\n- UN press releases and meeting records documenting the failed adoption on 2025‑09‑19 and 2025‑09‑26.\n- UN News reporting on the 2025‑09‑26 failure and impending reimposition.\n- E3 and US statements detailing trigger and effective time of reimposition.\n- UN 2231 background page explaining the snapback process and re‑applied resolutions.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c997d1ecf2649281\"}}`" }, { "id": 40635, "title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "short_title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "url_title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "slug": "will-bangladeshs-foreign-exchange-reserves-gross-be-320-billion-as-of-endnovember-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.932078Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T01:26:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T02:57:00.157408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:03.202077Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T01:26:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40231, "title": "Will Bangladesh’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” be ≥ $32.0 billion as of end‑November 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.932604Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T01:26:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T02:56:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025‑09‑30:\n- Bangladesh Bank (BB) publishes a monthly “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” table that lists two series, “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” and “Foreign Exchange Reserves (as per BPM6),” with values shown in million US dollars. As of the latest months available on that page, the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” series shows: June 2025 = 31,772.0; July 2025 = 29,799.8; August 2025 = 31,166.2 (all in million US$). These imply that the gross measure has fluctuated around the low‑to‑mid $30 billions during mid‑2025.\n- BB’s monthly “Exchange Rate & Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics” PDF reports end‑of‑month “Gross international reserve (BPM6)” levels (a narrower, internationally standardized concept). It noted USD 26.74 billion at 30 June 2025 and USD 24.78 billion at end‑July 2025, attributing the July dip partly to Asian Clearing Union settlements.\n- BB’s “Balance of payments [Monthly Data]” page also reports “Gross official reserves” and “Gross official reserves (as per BPM6)” in million US dollars; for July, it shows 29,800 and 24,779, respectively, consistent with the other BB sources at similar dates.\n\nKey definitions/clarifications for forecasters:\n- Target series: “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” exactly as labeled on Bangladesh Bank’s Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly) page; units are million US dollars (“In million US $”). This question does not use the BPM6 series for resolution, but it is noted for context; BPM6 refers to the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition, which defines official reserve assets (components include monetary gold, SDRs, reserve position in the IMF, and other reserve assets).\n- Threshold interpretation: “$32.0 billion” means 32,000.0 million US$. The comparison is made against the November 2025 value as displayed in the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” column on the BB page.\n\nWhy this is forecastable with uncertainty:\n- The gross reserves series has been near but below $32 billion in recent months (31,166.2 million in August; 31,772.0 million in June), making a November reading ≥ 32,000.0 million plausible but not assured. Month‑to‑month swings reflect flows (e.g., remittances, exports/imports), external financing, and outflows such as ACU settlements—drivers that can move the series several hundred million dollars within a few weeks.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"d2321da86ffee0c6\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Resolve “Yes” if Bangladesh Bank’s “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” for November 2025 is greater than or equal to 32,000.0 million US dollars; otherwise resolve “No”.\n\nPrimary source and exact check:\n- Use the Bangladesh Bank “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” page. Read the value in the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” column for the row corresponding to November 2025 (which, per BB’s presentation, will appear within the fiscal year 2025–2026 section). Units are million US dollars; compare the displayed figure directly to 32,000.0 million (i.e., ≥ 32.0 billion).\n\nTiming and snapshot:\n- Determine the outcome based on the value displayed on the BB page as of 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025. If BB later revises figures after that cutoff, revisions are ignored for this question’s resolution.\n\nFallbacks if the primary page is unavailable or missing November 2025 by the cutoff:\n1) Use BB’s “Balance of payments [Monthly Data]” page and take the November 2025 value listed under “Gross official reserves” (in million US$). Treat that figure as equivalent to the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” concept for the purpose of this resolution, and compare it to 32,000.0 million. If both sources are available but disagree, prefer the dedicated “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” page.\n2) If neither page is accessible at the cutoff due to temporary technical issues, use a publicly accessible archived snapshot (e.g., from the Internet Archive) of either page captured on or before 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025, applying the same preference order.\n\nNotes:\n- This question is binary (Yes/No). It concerns the November 2025 monthly figure as reported by Bangladesh Bank. It does not use the BPM6 series for resolution, though BPM6 context is provided for background and definitional clarity.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40635, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762829624.122517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762829624.122517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.4875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5125, 0.4875 ], "means": [ 0.4934007936507934 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025‑09‑30:\n- Bangladesh Bank (BB) publishes a monthly “Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly)” table that lists two series, “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” and “Foreign Exchange Reserves (as per BPM6),” with values shown in million US dollars. As of the latest months available on that page, the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” series shows: June 2025 = 31,772.0; July 2025 = 29,799.8; August 2025 = 31,166.2 (all in million US$). These imply that the gross measure has fluctuated around the low‑to‑mid $30 billions during mid‑2025.\n- BB’s monthly “Exchange Rate & Foreign Exchange Market Dynamics” PDF reports end‑of‑month “Gross international reserve (BPM6)” levels (a narrower, internationally standardized concept). It noted USD 26.74 billion at 30 June 2025 and USD 24.78 billion at end‑July 2025, attributing the July dip partly to Asian Clearing Union settlements.\n- BB’s “Balance of payments [Monthly Data]” page also reports “Gross official reserves” and “Gross official reserves (as per BPM6)” in million US dollars; for July, it shows 29,800 and 24,779, respectively, consistent with the other BB sources at similar dates.\n\nKey definitions/clarifications for forecasters:\n- Target series: “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” exactly as labeled on Bangladesh Bank’s Foreign Exchange Reserve (Monthly) page; units are million US dollars (“In million US $”). This question does not use the BPM6 series for resolution, but it is noted for context; BPM6 refers to the IMF’s Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, Sixth Edition, which defines official reserve assets (components include monetary gold, SDRs, reserve position in the IMF, and other reserve assets).\n- Threshold interpretation: “$32.0 billion” means 32,000.0 million US$. The comparison is made against the November 2025 value as displayed in the “Foreign Exchange Reserves (Gross)” column on the BB page.\n\nWhy this is forecastable with uncertainty:\n- The gross reserves series has been near but below $32 billion in recent months (31,166.2 million in August; 31,772.0 million in June), making a November reading ≥ 32,000.0 million plausible but not assured. Month‑to‑month swings reflect flows (e.g., remittances, exports/imports), external financing, and outflows such as ACU settlements—drivers that can move the series several hundred million dollars within a few weeks.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"d2321da86ffee0c6\"}}`" }, { "id": 40634, "title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-", "url_title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-", "slug": "will-the-us-implement-an-across-the-board-tariff-on-all-goods-of-colombian-origin-between-2025-10", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.444086Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T21:53:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T23:24:00.217827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.690633Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T21:53:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40230, "title": "Will the U.S. implement an across-the-board tariff on all goods of Colombian origin between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.444505Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T21:53:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T23:23:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- In late January 2025, the White House threatened to impose emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with an increase to 50% after one week, amid a dispute over deportation flights. Following an agreement under which Colombia accepted deportation flights, the White House stated that the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions would be held in reserve and not signed unless Colombia failed to honor the agreement. Associated press reporting described the subsequent resumption of deportation flights.\n- The United States–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) has been in force since May 15, 2012; under it, most Colombian goods currently enter the United States duty-free (and without the MPF) as the agreement phases in, with near full duty-free treatment by 2028. As of 2024, USTR reports U.S.–Colombia goods trade of roughly $36.6B, with U.S. goods imports from Colombia at $17.9B and exports at $18.7B; total services trade was about $16.7B, with a $2.5B U.S. services surplus.\n- Definitions used below:\n • Tariff: A tax imposed by a government on imported goods, paid by the importer.\n • Country of origin: For U.S. customs purposes, “the country of manufacture, production, or growth of any article of foreign origin entering the United States,” as defined in 19 CFR 134.1(b). CBP applies non-preferential origin rules under 19 CFR Part 134 to determine origin for marking and similar purposes.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The January 2025 contingency left a Colombia-wide tariff package drafted but on hold, creating genuine uncertainty about whether an across-the-board, Colombia-specific tariff will actually be put into effect before year-end. Forecasters can track official actions (e.g., presidential proclamations, executive orders, Federal Register notices, USTR actions, CBP operational guidance) and political/compliance signals from both governments and trade data releases to update their probabilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"9abaabf95c5b9ed3\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question intent: Resolve whether a legally operative, Colombia-specific, across-the-board tariff is actually in effect at any time during the period defined below.\n\nTime window for eligible events: From 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolution:\n- Resolve “Yes” if, at any moment within the window, there is a legally operative U.S. federal measure that imposes an additional customs duty (ad valorem and/or specific) on all goods of Colombian origin (as defined below), regardless of tariff subheading or product, by virtue of their Colombian origin.\n- Resolve “No” otherwise.\n\nRequired characteristics of the qualifying measure:\n1) Scope (across-the-board): The text of the measure must state that it applies to “all goods of Colombia,” “all merchandise imported from Colombia,” or equivalently worded language that makes it applicable to all products of Colombian origin irrespective of HTS heading/subheading. Narrow measures (e.g., limited to specific sectors/products), quotas/TRQs, licensing regimes, sanctions that block imports without imposing a customs duty, enhanced inspections, and visa/immigration restrictions do not count.\n2) Colombia-specific: The measure must explicitly identify Colombia as a covered country. A global tariff applying to all countries does not count. A measure that applies to a list of countries counts if Colombia is explicitly listed and the scope criterion above is met for Colombia.\n3) Legal form and effect: The measure must be enacted through a binding federal instrument (e.g., Presidential Proclamation, Executive Order invoking statutory authority such as IEEPA; determinations and implementing notices by USTR/Commerce/CBP; interim/final rules published in the Federal Register) that has entered into legal effect so that entries of goods of Colombian origin are assessed the additional duty during the window. If a measure is signed but its effective date lies outside the window, it does not count. If it is enjoined nationwide before taking effect, it does not count. If it takes effect and is later suspended/terminated, it counts as long as it was in effect at least briefly within the window.\n\nDefinitions to be used for resolution:\n- “Tariff” means a tax on imported goods collected by customs (e.g., an additional duty rate).\n- “Goods of Colombian origin” means goods whose country of origin is Colombia under U.S. non-preferential origin rules: the country of manufacture, production, or growth, as defined in 19 CFR 134.1(b). For avoidance of doubt, origin determinations follow CBP practice under 19 CFR Part 134 (e.g., substantial transformation), not preferential rules of origin under CTPA.\n- “Across-the-board” means the measure, by its terms, applies to all goods of Colombian origin regardless of product classification, though it may include enumerated carve-outs inherent to U.S. law (e.g., duty-free return of U.S. goods, temporary importations under bond) or explicit exclusions listed in the instrument. The presence of such exclusions does not disqualify the measure as long as the default rule is that all Colombian-origin goods are subject to the specified additional duty.\n\nWhat does NOT qualify:\n- General/global tariffs applicable to all countries; product- or sector-specific duties (e.g., anti-dumping/countervailing duties, safeguard duties) that do not apply to all goods of Colombian origin; non-tariff measures (quotas, embargoes, licensing only, OFAC blocking sanctions) that do not impose a customs duty; measures announced but not legally in effect during the window.\n\nPrimary sources for determination (any one suffices):\n- Federal Register entries for Presidential Proclamations, Executive Orders, interim/final rules, or notices establishing country-specific across-the-board tariff measures.\n- Official White House/Executive Office postings of signed proclamations or executive orders.\n- Harmonized Tariff Schedule (USITC) updates adding entries that impose additional duties on “goods of Colombia” across-the-board.\n- CBP Cargo Systems Messaging Service (CSMS) and/or Customs Bulletins that implement such measures for entry processing.\n\nStatus quo baseline (for forecasters): As of 2025-09-30, there is no across-the-board, Colombia-specific U.S. tariff in effect; the January 2025 tariff package was drafted but held in reserve after an agreement on deportation flights. The CTPA remains in force and most Colombian-origin goods enter duty-free, which would be reversed or offset if an across-the-board Colombia tariff were implemented. Latest USTR figures indicate U.S. goods imports from Colombia were about $17.9B in 2024, suggesting material trade exposure to any such measure.\n\nCitations supporting background and definitions: White House statement holding IEEPA tariffs in reserve ; Reuters reporting on the 25%–50% threatened tariffs and subsequent hold following an agreement ; AP reporting on the resumption of deportation flights ; CBP page confirming CTPA effective date and duty-free status for most goods ; USTR country/trade summary for 2024 values ; Definition of tariff ; Definition of country of origin.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40634, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762816505.14427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762816505.14427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.19775581395348843 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 15.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 21.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- In late January 2025, the White House threatened to impose emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with an increase to 50% after one week, amid a dispute over deportation flights. Following an agreement under which Colombia accepted deportation flights, the White House stated that the fully drafted IEEPA tariffs and sanctions would be held in reserve and not signed unless Colombia failed to honor the agreement. Associated press reporting described the subsequent resumption of deportation flights.\n- The United States–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement (CTPA) has been in force since May 15, 2012; under it, most Colombian goods currently enter the United States duty-free (and without the MPF) as the agreement phases in, with near full duty-free treatment by 2028. As of 2024, USTR reports U.S.–Colombia goods trade of roughly $36.6B, with U.S. goods imports from Colombia at $17.9B and exports at $18.7B; total services trade was about $16.7B, with a $2.5B U.S. services surplus.\n- Definitions used below:\n • Tariff: A tax imposed by a government on imported goods, paid by the importer.\n • Country of origin: For U.S. customs purposes, “the country of manufacture, production, or growth of any article of foreign origin entering the United States,” as defined in 19 CFR 134.1(b). CBP applies non-preferential origin rules under 19 CFR Part 134 to determine origin for marking and similar purposes.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The January 2025 contingency left a Colombia-wide tariff package drafted but on hold, creating genuine uncertainty about whether an across-the-board, Colombia-specific tariff will actually be put into effect before year-end. Forecasters can track official actions (e.g., presidential proclamations, executive orders, Federal Register notices, USTR actions, CBP operational guidance) and political/compliance signals from both governments and trade data releases to update their probabilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"9abaabf95c5b9ed3\"}}`" }, { "id": 40633, "title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcements?", "short_title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcem", "url_title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcem", "slug": "will-the-bank-of-england-change-bank-rate-at-either-the-6-november-or-18-december-2025-mpc-announcem", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.830675Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T17:51:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T19:22:00.195797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:02.168934Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:51:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40229, "title": "Will the Bank of England change Bank Rate at either the 6 November or 18 December 2025 MPC announcements?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.831092Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:51:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T19:21:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of what forecasters need to know as of 2025-09-30 (UTC):\n- What is “Bank Rate”? The Bank of England (BoE) sets Bank Rate, the interest rate it pays on reserves held with it and charges on certain loans to eligible institutions. Bank Rate influences other UK interest rates.\n- When are the relevant meetings? The BoE’s 2025 MPC schedule includes meetings/announcement dates on Thursday 6 November 2025 and Thursday 18 December 2025. The Monetary Policy Summary and minutes are published eight times a year, typically at 12 noon on a Thursday. The BoE explainer page also states: “We will announce our next decision on Thursday 6 November 2025”.\n- Current status quo: At its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, the MPC voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. At its meeting ending on 17 September 2025, the MPC voted 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.00%. The BoE’s explainer page shows “Current Bank Rate 4%” and references the August 2025 reduction.\n- Market expectations (context only): In the September 2025 Market Participants Survey, respondents’ median expected Bank Rate was 4.00% for 6 November 2025 and 3.75% for 18 December 2025; for 6 November, the mean probability mass was concentrated at 4.00% (57.8%) and 3.75% (38.7%).\n- Primary sources to watch on the day: The BoE publishes a “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” page for each meeting (e.g., November 2025 and December 2025 pages are scheduled “to be published at 12pm”). The BoE also maintains an official Bank Rate database with the current and historical Official Bank Rate.\n\nKey definitions and links:\n- Bank Rate (a.k.a. Official Bank Rate): The BoE’s policy rate; see BoE explainer.\n- MPC announcement: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary and minutes publication for the relevant meeting date (links available on the BoE site and “Monetary policy summary and minutes” index page).\n- The two relevant dates are fixed by the BoE’s 2025 schedule: 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: As of late September 2025, Bank Rate is 4.00% following an August cut, and the MPC kept it unchanged in September. There is meaningful uncertainty about whether the MPC will change Bank Rate at one or both late‑2025 meetings, with survey expectations split across 3.75% and 4.00% for November and a 3.75% median for December.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"72b9908ed3997db6\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question and date range:\n- Resolve whether the Bank of England changes Bank Rate at either of the MPC announcements on Thursday 6 November 2025 or Thursday 18 December 2025. Eligible events must occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. All times are UTC.\n\nDefinitions:\n- “Bank Rate” means the Bank of England’s Official Bank Rate, as defined by the BoE (its policy interest rate that influences other UK interest rates).\n- “MPC announcement” means the Bank of England’s published “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” for the relevant meeting date, which the BoE publishes eight times per year, typically at 12 noon on a Thursday. For November and December 2025, the BoE’s schedule specifies announcements on 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025. The BoE also flags that the next decision announcement is on 6 November 2025.\n- “Change (in Bank Rate) at a meeting” is satisfied if the relevant Monetary Policy Summary explicitly states that the MPC voted to set Bank Rate to a level different from the level in effect immediately prior to that announcement (e.g., “voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%” counts as a change; “voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4%” does not). This determination will be based on the wording in the BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary for that meeting.\n\nResolution rule:\n- Resolve Yes if the BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary and minutes for either 6 November 2025 or 18 December 2025 states that the MPC changed Bank Rate (as defined above). Resolve No if both the 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025 Monetary Policy Summaries and minutes state that Bank Rate was maintained (i.e., no change at either meeting).\n\nPrimary resolution sources (any one is sufficient; the Monetary Policy Summary text governs):\n- The BoE’s “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” index, which links to each meeting’s announcement and is published at 12 noon on Thursdays eight times a year.\n- The November 2025 Monetary Policy Summary and minutes page (marked “to be published at 12pm”) and the December 2025 page (marked “to be published at 12pm”).\n\nSecondary corroborating source (if needed):\n- The BoE Official Bank Rate database, which lists the current and historical Official Bank Rate values and can confirm the rate before and after the relevant announcements.\n\nEdge cases and contingencies:\n- Only decisions announced in the Monetary Policy Summary and minutes for the specified 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025 meetings count. Inter‑meeting changes (if any) do not affect resolution unless the change is explicitly decided at one of these two meetings and stated in the corresponding Monetary Policy Summary.\n- If either meeting is rescheduled but the corresponding Monetary Policy Summary for that meeting is still published within 2025, that publication will count for this question; otherwise, if a meeting is cancelled or its Monetary Policy Summary is not published by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, treat that meeting as “no change” for the purpose of this question and resolve based on the remaining meeting.\n- The question resolves as soon as the first of the two specified Monetary Policy Summaries indicating a change is published (Yes), or after the 18 December 2025 publication if neither indicates a change (No).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40633, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762802171.014952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762802171.014952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.534 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5730076628352492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 20.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of what forecasters need to know as of 2025-09-30 (UTC):\n- What is “Bank Rate”? The Bank of England (BoE) sets Bank Rate, the interest rate it pays on reserves held with it and charges on certain loans to eligible institutions. Bank Rate influences other UK interest rates.\n- When are the relevant meetings? The BoE’s 2025 MPC schedule includes meetings/announcement dates on Thursday 6 November 2025 and Thursday 18 December 2025. The Monetary Policy Summary and minutes are published eight times a year, typically at 12 noon on a Thursday. The BoE explainer page also states: “We will announce our next decision on Thursday 6 November 2025”.\n- Current status quo: At its meeting ending on 6 August 2025, the MPC voted 5–4 to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.00%. At its meeting ending on 17 September 2025, the MPC voted 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.00%. The BoE’s explainer page shows “Current Bank Rate 4%” and references the August 2025 reduction.\n- Market expectations (context only): In the September 2025 Market Participants Survey, respondents’ median expected Bank Rate was 4.00% for 6 November 2025 and 3.75% for 18 December 2025; for 6 November, the mean probability mass was concentrated at 4.00% (57.8%) and 3.75% (38.7%).\n- Primary sources to watch on the day: The BoE publishes a “Monetary Policy Summary and minutes” page for each meeting (e.g., November 2025 and December 2025 pages are scheduled “to be published at 12pm”). The BoE also maintains an official Bank Rate database with the current and historical Official Bank Rate.\n\nKey definitions and links:\n- Bank Rate (a.k.a. Official Bank Rate): The BoE’s policy rate; see BoE explainer.\n- MPC announcement: The BoE’s Monetary Policy Summary and minutes publication for the relevant meeting date (links available on the BoE site and “Monetary policy summary and minutes” index page).\n- The two relevant dates are fixed by the BoE’s 2025 schedule: 6 November 2025 and 18 December 2025.\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: As of late September 2025, Bank Rate is 4.00% following an August cut, and the MPC kept it unchanged in September. There is meaningful uncertainty about whether the MPC will change Bank Rate at one or both late‑2025 meetings, with survey expectations split across 3.75% and 4.00% for November and a 3.75% median for December.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"72b9908ed3997db6\"}}`" }, { "id": 40632, "title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (Lisbon time)?", "short_title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic betwe", "url_title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic betwe", "slug": "portugal-will-a-chega-deputy-be-elected-secretary-of-the-mesa-of-the-assembly-of-the-republic-betwe", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.105804Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T10:47:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-10T12:18:00.224396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.532226Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T10:47:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40228, "title": "Portugal: Will a Chega deputy be elected Secretary of the Mesa of the Assembly of the Republic between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (Lisbon time)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:01.106436Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T10:47:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-10T12:17:19Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo and context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is the Mesa and the Secretary role: The Mesa da Assembleia da República (the Assembly’s Bureau) is an organ composed of 1 President, 4 Vice-Presidents, 4 Secretaries, and 4 Vice-Secretaries. During plenary meetings, the Mesa is constituted by the President and the Secretaries. The roles are described on the Assembly’s official “Sobre a Mesa” page.\n- How Mesa members are elected: Under the Regimento da Assembleia da República, Vice-Presidents, Secretaries, and Vice-Secretaries are elected by list, and candidates are considered elected if they obtain an absolute majority of votes of Deputies “em efetividade de funções” (in active office). Elections are conducted by secret ballot. See Article 23 (election and majority) and Article 97 (secret ballot) of the Regimento.\n- Composition and June 2025 election: Following the XVII Legislature’s start, the Assembly announced on 2025-06-03 the election of Mesa members, listing the Secretaries elected: Francisco Figueira (PSD), Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro (CH), Joana Lima (PS), and Germana Rocha (PSD). The current official “Mesa” composition page on parlamento.pt provides the up-to-date list of members and their party affiliations and serves as the authoritative roster.\n- Recent failed attempt to elect a Chega Secretary: On 2025-09-26, Chega’s nominee Francisco Gomes failed to be elected Secretary of the Mesa, receiving 98 votes in favor, 18 against, and 61 blank ballots (177 deputies present). The election required 116 votes in favor (an absolute majority) according to the Assembly’s rules, per reporting by RTP Madeira.\n- Party definition (Chega): Chega (CHEGA!) is a Portuguese political party founded in 2019, characterized as national conservative and right‑wing populist.\n\nWhy this matters for forecasting: After the failed September vote, it is uncertain whether cross‑party bargaining will allow a Chega deputy to obtain the absolute majority required to be elected as a Secretary of the Mesa before the end of 2025. The outcome depends on parliamentary dynamics, attendance, and party strategies under the rules above.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"29cbac6a061ba726\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary (Yes/No). Time window and timezone: The question pertains to elections held between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 and 2025-12-31 23:59:59, Lisbon local time (Europe/Lisbon).\n\nOperational definitions:\n- “Deputy”: A member of Portugal’s Assembly of the Republic (Deputado), as referenced throughout the Regimento da Assembleia da República.\n- “Deputy from Chega”: A Deputy who, at the time of the relevant election, is officially listed on the Assembly’s website as belonging to the Chega parliamentary group (CH). This can be verified via the Deputy’s official profile page and/or listings of parliamentary groups on parlamento.pt.\n- “Secretary of the Mesa”: One of the four “Secretários” that make up the Mesa, distinct from Vice‑Secretaries, as defined on the Assembly’s official Mesa information pages.\n- “Elected”: As per the Regimento, a candidate is considered elected when they obtain an absolute majority of votes of Deputies in active office in a secret‑ballot plenary vote (Regimento Article 23 and Article 97).\n\nResolution source and procedure (primary):\n- Primary source: the official “Mesa” composition page on the Assembly’s website (parlamento.pt) as of 2025-12-31 23:59:59 Lisbon time, which lists the Secretaries and their party affiliations.\n\nWhat counts as Yes:\n- Yes if a person who is a Deputy from Chega is elected to the office of “Secretário da Mesa” in a plenary vote held within the time window, and the Assembly’s official Mesa composition page lists that person as a Secretary by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 Lisbon time. The election must be for the role “Secretário” (not Vice‑Secretário) and must have been conducted by secret ballot with the candidate obtaining an absolute majority of Deputies in active office, per the Regimento.\n- The election date is the date of the plenary vote (as reflected in official Assembly communications such as press releases or records). If multiple such elections occur within the window, any one successful election meeting the above suffices for “Yes.” If the elected Secretary later resigns or is replaced before 2025-12-31, the outcome remains “Yes” provided the election occurred within the window and the official site listed them as Secretary at any time before the resolution timestamp.\n\nWhat counts as No:\n- No if no Deputy from Chega is elected Secretary of the Mesa in the time window, or if any Chega Deputy is only elected outside the time window, or is elected to a different office (e.g., Vice‑Secretary or Vice‑President), or is designated in an acting capacity without a formal election as defined in the Regimento.\n\nSecondary/backup sources:\n- If the primary page is temporarily inaccessible or not yet updated at the resolution timestamp, rely on official Assembly communications on parlamento.pt that announce Mesa elections (e.g., the 2025-06-03 announcement format) , and/or official plenary records posted on the Assembly’s site. In case of rare ambiguity, contemporaneous reporting by major Portuguese outlets (e.g., RTP) may be used to corroborate the occurrence and result of the vote.\n\nNotes:\n- The September 2025 failed vote for Chega’s Francisco Gomes (98 in favor; 116 required) illustrates the absolute‑majority threshold in practice but does not itself resolve this question, as it precedes the start of the counting window.\n- All references to election mechanics (absolute majority; secret ballot; roles) derive from the Regimento and official Mesa pages.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40632, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762775183.581228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762775183.581228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.135 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.18965909090909092 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 3.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo and context as of 2025-10-01:\n- What is the Mesa and the Secretary role: The Mesa da Assembleia da República (the Assembly’s Bureau) is an organ composed of 1 President, 4 Vice-Presidents, 4 Secretaries, and 4 Vice-Secretaries. During plenary meetings, the Mesa is constituted by the President and the Secretaries. The roles are described on the Assembly’s official “Sobre a Mesa” page.\n- How Mesa members are elected: Under the Regimento da Assembleia da República, Vice-Presidents, Secretaries, and Vice-Secretaries are elected by list, and candidates are considered elected if they obtain an absolute majority of votes of Deputies “em efetividade de funções” (in active office). Elections are conducted by secret ballot. See Article 23 (election and majority) and Article 97 (secret ballot) of the Regimento.\n- Composition and June 2025 election: Following the XVII Legislature’s start, the Assembly announced on 2025-06-03 the election of Mesa members, listing the Secretaries elected: Francisco Figueira (PSD), Gabriel Mithá Ribeiro (CH), Joana Lima (PS), and Germana Rocha (PSD). The current official “Mesa” composition page on parlamento.pt provides the up-to-date list of members and their party affiliations and serves as the authoritative roster.\n- Recent failed attempt to elect a Chega Secretary: On 2025-09-26, Chega’s nominee Francisco Gomes failed to be elected Secretary of the Mesa, receiving 98 votes in favor, 18 against, and 61 blank ballots (177 deputies present). The election required 116 votes in favor (an absolute majority) according to the Assembly’s rules, per reporting by RTP Madeira.\n- Party definition (Chega): Chega (CHEGA!) is a Portuguese political party founded in 2019, characterized as national conservative and right‑wing populist.\n\nWhy this matters for forecasting: After the failed September vote, it is uncertain whether cross‑party bargaining will allow a Chega deputy to obtain the absolute majority required to be elected as a Secretary of the Mesa before the end of 2025. 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After his inauguration in January 2025, [<u>Attorney General Pam Bondi oversaw the release of a first tranche of files in February 2025</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-pamela-bondi-releases-first-phase-declassified-epstein-files). The documents were heavily redacted and included mostly previously known information, leading to criticism that the release fell short of Trump’s transparency pledge. The Department of Justice followed up in July 2025 with [<u>a memo asserting that investigators had found no evidence of a secret “client list”</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407001/dl?inline) and that no further disclosures were planned, which drew backlash from lawmakers and the public.\n\nCongress has attempted to force more disclosure. In mid-2025, the [<u>“Epstein Files Transparency Act”</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405) was introduced, requiring the attorney general to make unclassified records public within 30 days of passage. [<u>Around the same time, the House Oversight Committee published more than 33,000 pages of documents obtained from the Justice Department, though many details were redacted to protect victim identities and ongoing investigations.</u>](https://time.com/7314073/jeffrey-epstein-documents-house-oversight-committee/) These actions reflect the ongoing struggle between legislative pressure for disclosure and executive branch reluctance to release sensitive information. \n\nCourts have largely deferred to the executive branch on this matter. [<u>In August 2025, a federal judge ruled that decisions about Epstein-related file releases should rest with the Trump administration rather than the judiciary</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-admin-better-placed-than-courts-release-epstein-files-judge-says-2025-08-20/), reinforcing the president’s discretion. This places the timeline and scope of further disclosures squarely in the hands of the administration.\n\nAs of late 2025, the Trump administration has released some materials but resisted broader transparency, citing privacy, legal, and investigative constraints. Whether the remaining records will be disclosed before the end of Trump’s term on January 20, 2029, depends on political will, congressional pressure, and potential new revelations that could renew public demand.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before noon ET on Jan. 20, 2029, the Trump administration is confirmed to have released additional Epstein Files in substantially unredacted form to the public, according to official U.S. government sources (e.g., DOJ, National Archives, congressional records) or credible national/international media outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, PBS).\n\n* “Epstein Files” means government-held records (e.g., Department of Justice, FBI, court-related files) explicitly tied to investigations into Jeffrey Epstein or his crimes that include significant new (i.e., previously unreleased) material that is unredacted or minimally redacted.\n* “Released” means that these files are made publicly accessible (e.g., published online by the DOJ, National Archives, or an official government website).\n\nThe independent publication of documents by Congress or the courts, without authorization from the Trump administration, will not count toward resolution.", "fine_print": "If Trump ceases to be the President before January 20, 2029, and this question is still open, it will immediately resolve as No.", "post_id": 40630, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763857770.915837, "end_time": 1766449771.309, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763857770.915837, "end_time": 1766449771.309, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.44563780553393384 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2678724952320626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39598625141675653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 1.0645648491280946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7787117901668047, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4134448350929925, 0.0, 1.162797292249664, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.61398331355066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [Will the Trump administration release the Epstein Files?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-Trump-administration-release-the-Epstein-files)\n\n[<u>During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump pledged to release all government records tied to Epstein if reelected</u>](https://nypost.com/2024/09/03/us-news/trump-suggests-hell-release-jeffrey-epstein-client-list-if-elected/). After his inauguration in January 2025, [<u>Attorney General Pam Bondi oversaw the release of a first tranche of files in February 2025</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/attorney-general-pamela-bondi-releases-first-phase-declassified-epstein-files). The documents were heavily redacted and included mostly previously known information, leading to criticism that the release fell short of Trump’s transparency pledge. The Department of Justice followed up in July 2025 with [<u>a memo asserting that investigators had found no evidence of a secret “client list”</u>](https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1407001/dl?inline) and that no further disclosures were planned, which drew backlash from lawmakers and the public.\n\nCongress has attempted to force more disclosure. In mid-2025, the [<u>“Epstein Files Transparency Act”</u>](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405) was introduced, requiring the attorney general to make unclassified records public within 30 days of passage. [<u>Around the same time, the House Oversight Committee published more than 33,000 pages of documents obtained from the Justice Department, though many details were redacted to protect victim identities and ongoing investigations.</u>](https://time.com/7314073/jeffrey-epstein-documents-house-oversight-committee/) These actions reflect the ongoing struggle between legislative pressure for disclosure and executive branch reluctance to release sensitive information. \n\nCourts have largely deferred to the executive branch on this matter. [<u>In August 2025, a federal judge ruled that decisions about Epstein-related file releases should rest with the Trump administration rather than the judiciary</u>](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/trump-admin-better-placed-than-courts-release-epstein-files-judge-says-2025-08-20/), reinforcing the president’s discretion. This places the timeline and scope of further disclosures squarely in the hands of the administration.\n\nAs of late 2025, the Trump administration has released some materials but resisted broader transparency, citing privacy, legal, and investigative constraints. Whether the remaining records will be disclosed before the end of Trump’s term on January 20, 2029, depends on political will, congressional pressure, and potential new revelations that could renew public demand." }, { "id": 40629, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "short_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "url_title": "Tehran evacuation before 2026?", "slug": "tehran-evacuation-before-2026", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:55:59.904203Z", "published_at": "2025-11-14T20:18:28Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:41:32.752663Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-14T20:18:51.476511Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:48:15.294529Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:48:15.294529Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40225, "title": "Will Iran announce an evacuation of Tehran before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:55:59.904581Z", "open_time": "2025-11-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-20T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Iranian government orders an evacuation of at least 100,000 inhabitants of Tehran County before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "* Any Iranian governmental authority with jurisdiction over Tehran County will qualify as the Iranian government for the purpose this question.", "post_id": 40629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763908881.892909, "end_time": 1763919186.461, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763908881.892909, "end_time": 1763919186.461, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11679830433616148 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.31473508132901346, 0.21383997188473958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5613655782267668, 0.0, 1.1351195377624934, 0.159228013413647, 1.2780817639485555, 2.3605234343180768, 0.048426974058352196, 0.2613886343686929, 1.6529852873084026, 0.2735154549885138, 0.7566684220027733, 0.4111953249574266, 0.5766688751576644, 0.0, 0.03627506129959581, 0.10286368260463565, 0.012311991125938967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28705404421628866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23761652173150052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013300044562547289 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 237, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran has debated decanting political/administrative functions from Tehran for decades, citing seismic risk, extreme water stress, land subsidence, pollution, and over-centralization. A year ago, President Masoud Pezeshkian [ordered a formal study of relocation](https://www.intellinews.com/iran-president-backs-moving-capital-from-tehran-to-persian-gulf-354450/?utm_source=chatgpt.com), reviving earlier proposals dating back at least to 2009.\n\nIn January 2025, the government [stated that](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202501077205) Iran “will relocate its capital to the southern coastal region of Makran,” as a response to Tehran’s overpopulation, power shortages, and water scarcity. Throughout 2025, [the environmental case strengthened](https://www.ft.com/content/c9ec6008-ed62-40ab-86eb-109d47c02d7e) as Tehran faces some of the world’s highest land-subsidence rates due to over-pumped aquifers.\n\nPresident Pezeshkian has continued arguing that Iran “must” move the capital, pointing to the water crisis. He has now said that should there be no rain by Azar (21st of November in the Persian calendar) the government would have to ration water and then [potentially evacuate Tehran](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2025/11/14/iran-faces-its-worst-drought-in-six-decades-considers-evacuating-tehran_6747437_114.html) if the situation continued further." }, { "id": 40628, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "short_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "url_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "slug": "by-january-1-2026-will-labour-fall-to-4th-in-the-polling-averages", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.334825Z", "published_at": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:00:00.651845Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.563527Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T05:19:19.315979Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T05:19:19.315979Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40224, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T21:32:07.335236Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T22:43:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-11T23:59:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40610,\"question_id\":40202}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Labour Party reaches #4 in the polling averages, with 3 or more other parties exceeding it [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after November 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40628, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762905086.086428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762905086.086428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3914370039161893 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40610,\"question_id\":40202}}`" }, { "id": 40610, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "short_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "url_title": "By January 1, 2026, will Labour fall to 4th in the polling averages?", "slug": "by-january-1-2026-will-labour-fall-to-4th-in-the-polling-averages", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-07T01:04:42.396555Z", "published_at": "2025-11-07T01:13:12Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T17:52:34.276146Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-07T01:15:02.083500Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:38:08.354869Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:38:08.354869Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40202, "title": "Before January 1, 2026, will the Labour Party poll 4th place or worse in the UK, according to Politico's average?", "created_at": "2025-11-07T01:04:42.397083Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-12T01:13:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-12T01:13:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Labour Party reaches #4 in the polling averages, with 3 or more other parties exceeding it [according to Politico](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/), after November 6, 2025 and before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763574743.782624, "end_time": 1764115199.999, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763574743.782624, "end_time": 1764115199.999, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.4516151538279693 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From user [JGalt](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1986516734275113289): \"Labour on 15% in latest poll. Fourth place.\"\n\nCNN: [Keir Starmer is polling as the UK’s most unpopular prime minister on record. Where did it all go wrong?](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/30/uk/keir-starmer-labour-party-conference-intl)\n\n> A year ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour Party won the largest majority in Parliament this century and consigned the Conservatives, Labour’s historic rival, to its worst defeat. Now, after 15 months in power, Starmer has become the most unpopular British prime minister on record.\n\n> Although previous leaders have joined despised [foreign wars](https://cnn.com/2015/10/25/europe/tony-blair-iraq-war), bungled responses to a [pandemic](https://cnn.com/2021/05/02/uk/boris-johnson-scandals-local-elections-scottish-independence-intl-gbr-cmd) and nearly sent the economy into [meltdown](https://cnn.com/2022/10/20/uk/liz-truss-government-crisis-thursday-gbr-intl), none have been as unpopular as Starmer, according to Ipsos, a leading pollster. Just 13% of voters say they are satisfied with Starmer, while 79% are unsatisfied.\n\n> Labour has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government,” said John Curtice, the doyen of polling in Britain. But he is not surprised: Thanks to Britain’s electoral system, Labour won about two-thirds of seats with just one-third of the votes cast. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just one in five Britons voted for Starmer’s Labour Party. As landslides go, Starmer’s was loveless." }, { "id": 40608, "title": "Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?", "short_title": "Panda Extinct by 2100?", "url_title": "Panda Extinct by 2100?", "slug": "panda-extinct-by-2100", "author_id": 263913, "author_username": "cgiofred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T23:59:45.381806Z", "published_at": "2025-11-10T18:36:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T05:46:10.591075Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-10T18:36:37.512833Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-11T18:36:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40199, "title": "Will the Giant Panda become extinct before 2100?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T23:59:45.382242Z", "open_time": "2025-11-11T18:36:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-15T18:36:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-15T18:36:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-11-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda Melanoleuca) is classified as \"vulnerable\" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The Giant Panda has trouble surviving in the wild due to habitat loss and its difficulty of mating, even in captivity. However, its survival is a matter of national prestige for China. The panda's survival seems to test the impact of political will on animal conservation efforts.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the last individual of the Ailuropoda Melanoleuca dies before January 1, 2100.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on reports by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or the[ <u>IUCN Red List</u>](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/712/121745669 \"IUCN Red List\").", "post_id": 40608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763337169.228725, "end_time": 1857584143.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763337169.228725, "end_time": 1857584143.099, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04719986782502857 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16066607683687129, 1.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Giant Panda (Ailuropoda Melanoleuca) is classified as \"vulnerable\" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The Giant Panda has trouble surviving in the wild due to habitat loss and its difficulty of mating, even in captivity. However, its survival is a matter of national prestige for China. The panda's survival seems to test the impact of political will on animal conservation efforts." }, { "id": 40604, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "short_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "url_title": "Will Iran allow IAEA to inspect its uranium stockpile before 2026?", "slug": "will-iran-allow-iaea-to-inspect-its-uranium-stockpile-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.417336Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T17:00:00.457815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.701313Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 99, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T05:19:19.315979Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T05:19:19.315979Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40193, "title": "Will Iran allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpile of enriched uranium before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T19:20:33.417844Z", "open_time": "2025-11-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40437,\"question_id\":40007}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, Iran announces an agreement to allow the IAEA to inspect its stockpiles of enriched uranium at the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear sites.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40604, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762447955.483296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762447955.483296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20028007088024813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 22.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 20.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [brief, 12-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between Iran and Israel in June 2025 ended when American B-2 bombers dropped several [GBU-57](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-57A/B_MOP) 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. On June 25, a day after the ceasefire began, Iranian lawmakers [overwhelmingly voted](https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-parliament-suspend-iaea-cooperation-nuclear/33454363.html) to suspend Iran's cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).\n\nOn September 9, 2025, Iran and the IAEA [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-iaea-announce-agreement-resuming-nuclear-inspections-2025-09-09/) a deal to resume inspections at the bombed nuclear sites. But more recently, on October 20, [Reuters reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-cooperation-deal-with-un-nuclear-watchdog-is-void-2025-10-20/) that the deal had been scrapped. The IAEA [estimates](https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2025/10/20/iaea-chief-assesses-irans-enriched-uranium-stockpile-remains-inside-sites-destroyed-by-israel-and-u-s/) that Iran has 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiled at the bombed nuclear facilities.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40437,\"question_id\":40007}}`" }, { "id": 40602, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "short_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "url_title": "Will US import Mexican cattle before 2026?", "slug": "will-us-import-mexican-cattle-before-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-05T02:46:22.193525Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T17:54:58Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T08:30:19.002341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T18:36:55.635723Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:48:15.294529Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-23T14:48:15.294529Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40188, "title": "Will the United States reopen cattle imports from Mexico before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-11-05T02:46:22.193932Z", "open_time": "2025-11-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-25T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if U.S. imports of cattle from Mexico are permitted to resume before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "A \"phased\" or partial resumption of cattle importation is sufficient for this question to resolve as **Yes.**", "post_id": 40602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763886608.534735, "end_time": 1763974437.444, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763886608.534735, "end_time": 1763974437.444, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.21022813817717265 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5626921304755881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26493849996086327, 0.45288178428458503, 0.0, 0.8600494355428064, 0.744634421660868, 1.6693809891178473, 0.5805438574528169, 1.372032095031394, 0.03365548811464179, 1.2226206190193367, 1.1862332584920625, 0.4159242870145984, 0.2425126729529749, 0.6985775761728659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7965517069063007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7370646316360566, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05148079025128712 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 298, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 11, 2025, the United States Department of Agriculture [suspended imports](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/u-s-suspends-live-cattle-imports-at-southern-border) of cattle, horse, and bison across the U.S.'s border with Mexico due to concerns about the spread of [New World screwworm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cochliomyia) (NWS). On July 7, the U.S. started to reopen the border to Mexican livestock, but shortly thereafter, on July 9, the suspension was [reimposed](https://www.beefmagazine.com/market-news/cattle-trade-with-mexico-if-you-blinked-you-missed-it) after another NWS case was detected.\n\nAs of November 4, 2025, there is still [no time frame for reopening the border](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-not-ready-lift-mexican-cattle-ban-over-screwworm-agriculture-secretary-2025-11-04/), but USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is reportedly \"pleased with with Mexico's efforts to contain the pest,\" stating that, \"every day that goes by we get a little bit closer.\"" } ] }
