Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40978, "title": "Will FANG's market close price on 2026-01-01 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-24?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:11.059128Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T20:26:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T21:56:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T21:56:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:47:37Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:47:37Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:46.282022Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T21:56:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T21:56:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Diamondback Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FANG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:04) is 148.13. You can find more information about Diamondback Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FANG\n\nDiamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. It focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware basin, which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diamondback Energy, Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in Midland, Texas.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FANG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FANG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FANG's close price rises?", "post_id": 41270, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766611243.682501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766611243.682501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5466593572386861 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 4.0, 6.0, 20.0, 5.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.513523692001113, "peer_score": 1.3824033668619577, "coverage": 0.9580069270398881, "relative_legacy_score": 0.020427786553601612, "weighted_coverage": 0.9580069270398881, "spot_peer_score": 1.6096810589356767, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 13.513523692001113, "peer_archived_score": 1.3824033668619577, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.020427786553601612, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.6096810589356767, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Diamondback Energy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FANG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:04) is 148.13. You can find more information about Diamondback Energy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FANG\n\nDiamondback Energy, Inc., an independent oil and natural gas company, acquires, develops, explores, and exploits unconventional, onshore oil and natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin in West Texas. It focuses on the development of the Spraberry and Wolfcamp formations of the Midland basin; and the Wolfcamp and Bone Spring formations of the Delaware basin, which are part of the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. 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This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40977, "title": "Will CHD's market close price on 2026-01-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-24?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:07.595018Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T20:04:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T21:34:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T21:34:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T10:42:14Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T10:42:14Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-05T07:07:47.601401Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T21:34:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T21:34:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CHD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:08) is 85.08. You can find more information about Church & Dwight Co., Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD\n\nChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CHD\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of CHD. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "CHD's close price rises?", "post_id": 41269, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766611375.419635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766611375.419635, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5595261418080368 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 6.0, 9.0, 26.0, 8.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -15.402818079739975, "peer_score": 2.9924544592890236, "coverage": 0.9673248694561146, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00502982636483734, "weighted_coverage": 0.9673248694561146, "spot_peer_score": 3.219940879484139, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -15.402818079739975, "peer_archived_score": 2.9924544592890236, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00502982636483734, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.219940879484139, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Church & Dwight Co., Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is CHD. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:08) is 85.08. You can find more information about Church & Dwight Co., Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CHD\n\nChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. develops, manufactures, and markets household, personal care, and specialty products. It operates in three segments: Consumer Domestic, Consumer International, and Specialty Products Division. The company offers cat litters, carpet deodorizers, laundry detergents, and baking soda, as well as other baking soda based products under the ARM & HAMMER brand; condoms, lubricants, and vibrators under the TROJAN brand; stain removers, cleaning solutions, laundry detergents, and bleach alternatives under the OXICLEAN brand; toothbrushes under the SPINBRUSH brand; home pregnancy and ovulation test kits under the FIRST RESPONSE brand; depilatories under the NAIR brand; oral analgesics under the ORAJEL brand; laundry detergents under the XTRA brand; gummy dietary supplements under the L'IL CRITTERS and VITAFUSION brands; dry shampoos under the BATISTE brand; water flossers and showerheads under the WATERPIK brand; cold shortening and relief products under the ZICAM brand; oral care products under the THERABREATH brand; and acne treatment products under the HERO brand. Its specialty products include animal and food productivity products, such as ARM & HAMMER baking soda as a feed additive to help dairy cow; BIO-CHLOR and FERMENTEN used to reduce health issues associated with calving, as well as needed protein; CELMANAX refined functional carbohydrate, a yeast-based prebiotic; and CERTILLUS a probiotics products used in the poultry, dairy, beef, and swine industries. It offers sodium bicarbonate; and cleaning and deodorizing products. The company sells its consumer products through supermarkets, mass merchandisers, wholesale clubs, drugstores, convenience stores, home stores, dollar and other discount stores, pet and other specialty stores, and websites and other e-commerce channels; and specialty products to industrial customers and livestock producers through distributors. The company was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in Ewing, New Jersey.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"CHD\"}}`" }, { "id": 41268, "title": "Will ALL's market close price on 2025-12-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-24?", "short_title": "ALL's close price rises?", "url_title": "ALL's close price rises?", "slug": "alls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:04.176504Z", "published_at": "2025-12-24T17:10:48Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:57:54.654611Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:04.367150Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T18:40:48Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T18:40:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:24:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:24:03Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T17:10:48Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40976, "title": "Will ALL's market close price on 2025-12-27 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-24?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:04.176896Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T17:10:48Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T18:40:48Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T18:40:48Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:24:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-27T10:24:03Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:51.827970Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T18:40:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T18:40:48Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Allstate Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ALL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:06) is 205.0. You can find more information about The Allstate Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALL\n\nThe Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. It operates in five segments: Allstate Protection; Run-off Property-Liability; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Corporate and Other. The company offers private passenger auto, homeowners, personal lines, and commercial insurance products through agents, contact centers, and online; and property and casualty insurance products. It also provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, and protection plans; and insurance products, such as identity protection and restoration through Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside, Arity, and Allstate Identity Protection brands. In addition, the company offers life, accident, critical illness, hospital indemnity, short-term disability, and other health insurance products; self-funded stop-loss and fully insured group health products to employers; medicare supplement, ancillary products, and short-term medical insurance to individuals through independent agents, owned agencies, benefits brokers, and Allstate exclusive agents. Further, it offers automotive protection; vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection, road hazard tires and wheels, and paintless dent repair protection; and roadside assistance, mobility data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, identity theft protection, and remediation services. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ALL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ALL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "ALL's close price rises?", "post_id": 41268, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766600768.668489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5329999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766600768.668489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5329999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5698129958943257 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 8.0, 5.0, 7.0, 19.0, 6.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 14.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.339399527592061, "peer_score": 5.161487981459325, "coverage": 0.9848502298196158, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0013889067906246236, "weighted_coverage": 0.9848502298196158, "spot_peer_score": 5.799601189021845, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -14.339399527592061, "peer_archived_score": 5.161487981459325, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0013889067906246236, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.799601189021845, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Allstate Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ALL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:06) is 205.0. You can find more information about The Allstate Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ALL\n\nThe Allstate Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty, and other insurance products in the United States and Canada. It operates in five segments: Allstate Protection; Run-off Property-Liability; Protection Services; Allstate Health and Benefits; and Corporate and Other. The company offers private passenger auto, homeowners, personal lines, and commercial insurance products through agents, contact centers, and online; and property and casualty insurance products. It also provides consumer product protection plans, device and mobile data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, roadside assistance, and protection plans; and insurance products, such as identity protection and restoration through Allstate Protection Plans, Allstate Dealer Services, Allstate Roadside, Arity, and Allstate Identity Protection brands. In addition, the company offers life, accident, critical illness, hospital indemnity, short-term disability, and other health insurance products; self-funded stop-loss and fully insured group health products to employers; medicare supplement, ancillary products, and short-term medical insurance to individuals through independent agents, owned agencies, benefits brokers, and Allstate exclusive agents. Further, it offers automotive protection; vehicle service contracts, guaranteed asset protection, road hazard tires and wheels, and paintless dent repair protection; and roadside assistance, mobility data collection services, and analytic solutions using automotive telematics information, identity theft protection, and remediation services. The Allstate Corporation was founded in 1931 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ALL\"}}`" }, { "id": 41267, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-29 for the Metaculus question \"Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Eight or more acting heads of executive departments in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Eight or more acting heads of executive departments in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-eight-or-more-acting-heads-of-executive-departments-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:00.726871Z", "published_at": "2025-12-24T14:08:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:58:00.260578Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:00.950536Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T15:38:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T15:38:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T21:52:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T21:52:39Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T14:08:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40975, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-12-29 for the Metaculus question \"Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:54:00.727474Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T14:08:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T15:38:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T15:38:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T21:52:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T21:52:39Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:57:57.382136Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T15:38:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T15:38:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34506\n- Original question title: Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> -This question will resolve to a Yes only if at least eight of the fifteen individuals holding the positions of Secretary for the executive departments (as defined in [<u>5 U.S.C. § 101</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/101)) are officially designated as 'acting' and not confirmed by the Senate or permanently appointed by that date.\n> \n> \\- For this question, the executive departments include State, Treasury, Defense, Justice, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.\n> \n> \\- If an individual is simultaneously serving in an acting role while also nominated but not yet confirmed, they will still be considered 'acting' for the purpose of this question.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> -This question will resolve to a Yes only if at least eight of the fifteen individuals holding the positions of Secretary for the executive departments (as defined in [<u>5 U.S.C. § 101</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/101)) are officially designated as 'acting' and not confirmed by the Senate or permanently appointed by that date.\n> \n> \\- For this question, the executive departments include State, Treasury, Defense, Justice, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.\n> \n> \\- If an individual is simultaneously serving in an acting role while also nominated but not yet confirmed, they will still be considered 'acting' for the purpose of this question.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> 5 U.S. Code § 101 - Executive departments | U.S. Code | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute\n> \n> There are 15 executive departments, all headed by a Cabinet Secretary nominated by the President and requiring Senate confirmation. As of 1/29/25, [<u>six of President Trump's fifteen nominees have been confirmed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/29/us/politics/trump-cabinet-confirmations-tracker.html), including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Many have yet to be scheduled for votes. Furthermore, during the first Trump administration, there was a [<u>high degree of turnover</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) resulting in many departments being headed by leaders in active roles.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34506,\"question_id\":34022,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34506). If the community prediction on 2025-12-29 21:52:39 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Eight or more acting heads of executive departments in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41267, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766589326.328875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.305 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766589326.328875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.305 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2594811237630038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 59.324962471683264, "peer_score": 5.0500618487347255, "coverage": 0.9951748881516633, "relative_legacy_score": 0.007865101736208831, "weighted_coverage": 0.9951748881516633, "spot_peer_score": 4.187117784631156, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 59.324962471683264, "peer_archived_score": 5.0500618487347255, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.007865101736208831, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.187117784631156, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34506\n- Original question title: Will eight or more of the fifteen heads of the executive departments be serving in an acting role on December 31, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> -This question will resolve to a Yes only if at least eight of the fifteen individuals holding the positions of Secretary for the executive departments (as defined in [<u>5 U.S.C. § 101</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/101)) are officially designated as 'acting' and not confirmed by the Senate or permanently appointed by that date.\n> \n> \\- For this question, the executive departments include State, Treasury, Defense, Justice, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.\n> \n> \\- If an individual is simultaneously serving in an acting role while also nominated but not yet confirmed, they will still be considered 'acting' for the purpose of this question.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> -This question will resolve to a Yes only if at least eight of the fifteen individuals holding the positions of Secretary for the executive departments (as defined in [<u>5 U.S.C. § 101</u>](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/101)) are officially designated as 'acting' and not confirmed by the Senate or permanently appointed by that date.\n> \n> \\- For this question, the executive departments include State, Treasury, Defense, Justice, Interior, Agriculture, Commerce, Labor, Health and Human Services, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, Energy, Education, Veterans Affairs, and Homeland Security.\n> \n> \\- If an individual is simultaneously serving in an acting role while also nominated but not yet confirmed, they will still be considered 'acting' for the purpose of this question.\n> \n> \\- Metaculus will resolve this question according to [<u>credible sources</u>](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) published on or before December 31, 2026, Eastern Time.\n\nOriginal background: \n> 5 U.S. Code § 101 - Executive departments | U.S. Code | US Law | LII / Legal Information Institute\n> \n> There are 15 executive departments, all headed by a Cabinet Secretary nominated by the President and requiring Senate confirmation. As of 1/29/25, [<u>six of President Trump's fifteen nominees have been confirmed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/29/us/politics/trump-cabinet-confirmations-tracker.html), including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem. Many have yet to be scheduled for votes. Furthermore, during the first Trump administration, there was a [<u>high degree of turnover</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tracking-turnover-in-the-trump-administration/) resulting in many departments being headed by leaders in active roles.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":34506,\"question_id\":34022,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 41266, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:56.487048Z", "published_at": "2025-12-24T08:33:12Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:58:05.797060Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:57.188110Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:03:12Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:03:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T08:04:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T08:04:53Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T08:33:12Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40974, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 10.00% on 2026-01-02 for the Metaculus question \"Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:56.487466Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T08:33:12Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T10:03:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T10:03:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T08:04:53Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T08:04:53Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:58:03.008653Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:03:12Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T10:03:12Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37307,\"question_id\":36681,\"last_cp\":0.1}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307). 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Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37307\n- Original question title: Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 10.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n> \n> Statements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n> \n> If necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n> \n> As stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n> \n> If Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n> \n> In January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n> \n> In a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n> \n> The first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n> \n> > The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n> \n> A few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n> \n> However, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n> \n> > For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n> \n> > However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n> \n> > On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n> \n> Then on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n> \n> No US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n> * American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n> * Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40973, "title": "Will VMC's market close price on 2026-01-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-24?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:53.049635Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T08:03:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T09:33:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T09:33:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T11:55:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T11:55:24Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-05T07:07:53.042939Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T09:33:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T09:33:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Vulcan Materials Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is VMC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:56) is 291.87. You can find more information about Vulcan Materials Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VMC\n\nVulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete. The company provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, riprap and jetty stones, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VMC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of VMC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "VMC's close price rises?", "post_id": 41265, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766568205.473572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5442140479213914 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766568205.473572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5442140479213914 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5670714260417167 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 8.0, 20.0, 12.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -18.874635139551554, "peer_score": 2.359785771353498, "coverage": 0.9383213396425601, "relative_legacy_score": -0.017253640386187312, "weighted_coverage": 0.9383213396425601, "spot_peer_score": 2.4706912774658036, "spot_baseline_score": -18.442457113742766, "baseline_archived_score": -18.874635139551554, "peer_archived_score": 2.359785771353498, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.017253640386187312, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.4706912774658036, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -18.442457113742766 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Vulcan Materials Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is VMC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:56) is 291.87. You can find more information about Vulcan Materials Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VMC\n\nVulcan Materials Company produces and supplies construction aggregates in the United States. It operates through three segments: Aggregates, Asphalt, and Concrete. The company provides crushed stone, sand and gravel, sand, riprap and jetty stones, and other aggregates for use in construction and maintenance of highways, streets, and other public works, as well as in the construction of housing and commercial, industrial, and other nonresidential facilities; asphalt mix; asphalt construction paving services; and ready-mixed concrete products. The company was formerly known as Virginia Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to Vulcan Materials Company. Vulcan Materials Company was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"VMC\"}}`" }, { "id": 41263, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-12-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a government program reward deportation tips before 2027?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a government program reward deportation tips before 2027?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-a-government-program-reward-deportation-tips-before-2027", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:45.065842Z", "published_at": "2025-12-24T02:43:40Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:58:11.302419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:46.315072Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T04:13:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T04:13:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:45:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:45:40Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T02:43:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40971, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 50.00% on 2025-12-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:45.066296Z", "open_time": "2025-12-24T02:43:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T04:13:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T04:13:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:45:40Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T19:45:40Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:58:08.503207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-24T04:13:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-24T04:13:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36331\n- Original question title: Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal or state government formally establishes a program that provides monetary rewards to civilians for providing information leading to the deportation of individuals from the US.\n> \n> For this question to resolve as Yes:\n> \n> * The program must be officially established by a federal executive branch department (e.g., DHS, ICE, DOJ), a state executive branch agency, or a federal or state legislature through enacted legislation.\n> * The program must offer monetary compensation or financial incentives in exchange for providing information that contributes to the deportation of undocumented immigrants or individuals otherwise subject to removal proceedings.\n> * The program must become active before January 1, 2027.\n> \n> This question will not resolve as Yes if:\n> \n> * There is no monetary reward involved (e.g., a general tip line or anonymous reporting system without financial compensation).\n> * The program is proposed or debated but not officially established and implemented before the deadline.\n> * The program is created only by a private organization rather than a government entity.\n> * The monetary rewards are only offered to law enforcement officers or government employees, rather than civilians.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Throughout US history, there have been various forms of civilian tip lines and enforcement incentives related to immigration, but none yet offering paid rewards. Currently, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tip line allows civilians to report suspected immigration violations, but it does not offer monetary incentives. Given the ongoing debates about immigration policy and border enforcement, there is a possibility that certain states or the federal government could introduce a monetary reward system to encourage civilian participation in deportation efforts.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36331,\"question_id\":35753,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36331). If the community prediction on 2025-12-31 19:45:40 is higher than 50.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will a government program reward deportation tips before 2027?\"?", "post_id": 41263, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766548439.148464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766548439.148464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40696880633585186 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 16.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 25.567467672894704, "peer_score": 3.3523899782632385, "coverage": 0.9874929464746403, "relative_legacy_score": 0.024101801045134937, "weighted_coverage": 0.9874929464746403, "spot_peer_score": 3.2557852465332293, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 25.567467672894704, "peer_archived_score": 3.3523899782632385, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.024101801045134937, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.2557852465332293, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/36331\n- Original question title: Will the US establish a government program rewarding information leading to deportations before January 3, 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 50.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 3, 2027, a United States federal or state government formally establishes a program that provides monetary rewards to civilians for providing information leading to the deportation of individuals from the US.\n> \n> For this question to resolve as Yes:\n> \n> * The program must be officially established by a federal executive branch department (e.g., DHS, ICE, DOJ), a state executive branch agency, or a federal or state legislature through enacted legislation.\n> * The program must offer monetary compensation or financial incentives in exchange for providing information that contributes to the deportation of undocumented immigrants or individuals otherwise subject to removal proceedings.\n> * The program must become active before January 1, 2027.\n> \n> This question will not resolve as Yes if:\n> \n> * There is no monetary reward involved (e.g., a general tip line or anonymous reporting system without financial compensation).\n> * The program is proposed or debated but not officially established and implemented before the deadline.\n> * The program is created only by a private organization rather than a government entity.\n> * The monetary rewards are only offered to law enforcement officers or government employees, rather than civilians.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> Throughout US history, there have been various forms of civilian tip lines and enforcement incentives related to immigration, but none yet offering paid rewards. Currently, the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tip line allows civilians to report suspected immigration violations, but it does not offer monetary incentives. Given the ongoing debates about immigration policy and border enforcement, there is a possibility that certain states or the federal government could introduce a monetary reward system to encourage civilian participation in deportation efforts.\n> \n> *This forecast question was created by Bright Line Watch, a nonpartisan watchdog group. Forecast on their other questions* [*here*](https://www.metaculus.com/c/brightlinewatch/)*.* \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":36331,\"question_id\":35753,\"last_cp\":0.5}}`" }, { "id": 41262, "title": "Will BMY's market close price on 2025-12-29 be higher than its market close price on 2025-12-23?", "short_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "url_title": "BMY's close price rises?", "slug": "bmys-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:40.597080Z", "published_at": "2025-12-23T20:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T22:58:16.821783Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:40.785685Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T03:14:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-12-29T03:14:58Z", "open_time": "2025-12-23T20:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! 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It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:58) is 54.19. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. 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It's ticker is BMY. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:58) is 54.19. You can find more information about Bristol-Myers Squibb Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BMY\n\nBristol-Myers Squibb Company discovers, develops, licenses, manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells biopharmaceutical products worldwide. It offers products for oncology, hematology, immunology, cardiovascular, neuroscience, and other areas. The company's products include Eliquis for reduction in risk of stroke/systemic embolism in non-valvular atrial fibrillation and for the treatment of DVT/PE; Opdivo for various anti-cancer indications; Pomalyst/Imnovid for multiple myeloma; Orencia for active rheumatoid arthritis and psoriatic arthritis; and Sprycel to treat patients with Philadelphia chromosome-positive chronic myeloid leukemia. It also provides Yervoy for the treatment of patients with unresectable or metastatic melanoma; Empliciti for the treatment of relapsed/refractory multiple myeloma; Abecma for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma; Reblozyl to treat anemia; Opdualag for the treatment of unresectable or metastatic melanoma; and Zeposia to treat relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. In addition, the company offers Breyanzi for the treatment of patients with relapsed or refractory large B-cell lymphoma; Cobenfy to treat schizophrenia in adults; Krazati for the treatment of adult patients with KRASG12C-mutated locally advanced or metastatic non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC); Camzyos to treat symptomatic obstructive HCM to improve functional capacity and symptom; Sotyktu for the treatment of moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis; Augtyro for the treatment of locally advanced or metastatic ROS1-positive NSCLC; Revlimid, an oral immunomodulatory drug to treat multiple myeloma; and Abraxane for the treatment of breast cancer, NSCLC and pancreatic cancer. It sells products to wholesalers, distributors, pharmacies, retailers, hospitals, clinics, and government agencies. The company was formerly known as Bristol-Myers Company. 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It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:49) is 378.03. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. 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It's ticker is WAT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:49) is 378.03. You can find more information about Waters Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WAT\n\nWaters Corporation provides analytical workflow solutions in Asia, the Americas, and Europe. It operates through two segments: Waters and TA. The company designs, manufactures, sells, and services high and ultra-performance liquid chromatography, as well as mass spectrometry (MS) technology systems and support products, including chromatography columns, other consumable products, and post-warranty service plans. It designs, manufactures, sells, and services thermal analysis, rheometry, and calorimetry instruments; and develops and supplies software-based products that interface with its instruments, as well as other manufacturers' instruments. 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MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40963, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 25.00% on 2026-01-03 for the Metaculus question \"Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:53:13.081288Z", "open_time": "2025-12-23T12:37:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T09:01:28Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T09:01:28Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T22:58:25.061134Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-23T14:07:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. Oh' Canada!!!\"\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":38940,\"question_id\":38280,\"last_cp\":0.25}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940). If the community prediction on 2026-01-03 09:01:28 is higher than 25.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will over 2/3 of the EU recognize Palestine before July 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41255, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766498310.633863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766498310.633863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.3398663328052113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 22.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -64.1372738062571, "peer_score": -1.4807320006308984, "coverage": 0.9202058311303457, "relative_legacy_score": -0.1539374002247572, "weighted_coverage": 0.9202058311303457, "spot_peer_score": -1.6621240101657833, "spot_baseline_score": -68.96598793878495, "baseline_archived_score": -64.1372738062571, "peer_archived_score": -1.4807320006308984, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.1539374002247572, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.6621240101657833, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -68.96598793878495 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/38940\n- Original question title: Will over 2/3 of EU member states recognize Palestinian statehood before July 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 25.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, greater than or equal to 19 EU member states (listed in the Fine Print) have officially announced that they have formally recognizing the State of Palestine, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). \n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Question resolves based on announcement rather than when it takes effect. For example, France [announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg5g4p3245o) in July 2025 that it will officially recognize Palestine, though it would not be in effect until September 2025. For purposes of this question, the event is considered to have occurred at President Emmanuel Macron's announcement on July 24, 2025.\n> \n> A country is considered is to have recognized Palestinian statehood when that country has said such in an official press release or document. Example ([<u>1</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)) and ([<u>2</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/))[ ](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)\n> \n> For purposes of this question, the EU States That Have Recognize Palestinian statehood (12 out of 27) are as follows:\n> \n> 1. Spain ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c)) \\*\\*\n> 2. Ireland ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/eu-palestinian-state-spain-israel-gaza-6efe351e53761befc2c539c535bbcc0c))\\*\\*\n> 3. Slovenia ([<u>source</u>](https://www.gov.si/en/news/2024-06-05-republika-slovenija-in-drzava-palestina-vzpostavili-diplomatske-odnose/)) \\*\\*\n> 4. Cyprus ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 5. Sweden ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 6. Poland ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 7. Bulgaria ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 8. Romania ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 9. Hungary ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846))\n> 10. Slovakia ([<u>source</u>](https://docs.un.org/en/A/78/846)<u>)</u>\n> 11. Malta <u>(</u>[<u>source</u>](https://www.jpost.com/international/article-862657)<u>) </u>\\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> 12. France ([<u>source</u>](https://apnews.com/article/france-recognize-palestine-state-macron-800ed63143f0653a7f215ad96f7038d3)) \\*In Sept. \\*\\*\n> \n> EU States That Haven't Recognized Palestinian statehood (15 out of 27):\n> \n> 1. Austria ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/israel-allies-palestine-gaza-refugees-war-genocide-humanitarian/))\n> 2. Belgium (reported to be considering - [source](https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2025/07/25/belgium-to-wait-until-early-september-before-deciding-position-o/))\n> 3. Croatia ([note](https://www.thedubrovniktimes.com/news/croatia/item/18378-croatian-government-reaffirms-support-for-two-state-solution-amid-growing-calls-to-recognize-palestine))\n> 4. Czech Republic ([source](https://mzv.gov.cz/jnp/cz/zahranicni_vztahy/vyrocni_zpravy_a_dokumenty/poskytnute_informace/postoj_cssr_csfr_a_cr_k_oop_a.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com))\n> 5. Denmark ([note 1](https://www.reuters.com/world/danish-parliament-rejects-proposal-recognise-palestinian-state-2024-05-28/) - [note 2](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/04/denmark-gaza-palestine-school-debate-ban))\n> 6. Estonia ([note](https://news.err.ee/1609709292/estonia-urges-more-gaza-aid-still-backs-civil-and-defense-ties-with-israel))\n> 7. Finland ([note](https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/27528-majority-in-finnish-parliament-back-palestine-recognition-but-government-stalls.html))\\*\\*\n> 8. Germany ([note](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-not-planning-recognise-palestinian-state-short-term-2025-07-25/))\n> 9. Greece ([note](https://www.ekathimerini.com/politics/foreign-policy/1239487/greek-opposition-parties-push-government-to-recognize-palestine/))\n> 10. Italy ([note](https://www.politico.eu/article/early-recognition-palestine-counterproductive-giorgia-meloni/))\n> 11. Latvia ([note](https://www.newsweek.com/full-list-countries-voted-give-palestine-un-power-1899399))\n> 12. Lithuania ([note](https://www.baltictimes.com/lithuanian_advisor_doubts_that_now_is_the_best_time_to_recognize_palestine/))\n> 13. Luxembourg (reported to be considering - [source](https://today.rtl.lu/news/luxembourg/a/2311888.html)) \\*\\*\n> 14. Netherlands ([note](https://nltimes.nl/2025/07/25/dutch-mps-call-govt-recognize-palestinian-state-pro-gaza-protests-mount))\n> 15. Portugal ([note 1](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UhoYRJ9woc) - [note 2](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/portugal-may-be-next-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood/)) \\*\\*\n> \n> \\*\\* Indicates these countries have signed \"The New York Call.\" French foreign minster Jean-Noël Barrot said the signatories “have already recognised, have expressed or express the willingness or the positive consideration of our countries to recognise the State of Palestine.” (news [<u>source </u>](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/30/palestinian-statehood-recognition)– source for [<u>declaration</u>](https://www.canada.ca/en/global-affairs/news/2025/07/new-york-call---joint-statement-of-the-ministers-of-foreign-affairs.html))\n\nOriginal background: \n> President Macron announced on July 24, 2025 that France will recognize a Palestinian statehood in September 2025. That would put the number EU countries who have recognized Palestinian statehood at 12, which is 3 countries shy of a majority. If the EU reached a majority it will be a milestone and could be a sign the large economic bloc's approach to the Palestinian Question could change.\n> \n> See also:\n> \n> * An overview of Trump trade deals and frameworks ([<u>here</u>](https://www.axios.com/2025/07/29/trump-trade-deals-details)).\n> * The US has opposed countries recognizing Palestine. For example, Canada announces plans to recognize Israel and Trump threatens trade deal over it ([<u>here</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/30/world/canada-recognize-palestinian-state-september-intl-latam))\n> * “Trump wrote: \"Wow! Canada has just announced that it is backing statehood for Palestine. That will make it very hard for us to make a Trade Deal with them. 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It's ticker is GPN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:54) is 80.85. You can find more information about Global Payments Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPN\n\nGlobal Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through two segments, Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions. The Merchant Solutions segment offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, reconciliation and dispute management, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services. 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It's ticker is GPN. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:54) is 80.85. You can find more information about Global Payments Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPN\n\nGlobal Payments Inc. provides payment technology and software solutions for card, check, and digital-based payments in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific. It operates through two segments, Merchant Solutions and Issuer Solutions. The Merchant Solutions segment offers authorization, settlement and funding, customer support, chargeback resolution, reconciliation and dispute management, terminal rental, sales and deployment, payment security, and consolidated billing and reporting services. 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It's ticker is ICE. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:48:03) is 160.3. You can find more information about Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ICE\n\nIntercontinental Exchange, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides technology and data to financial institutions, corporations, and government entities in the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, India, Israel, Canada, and Singapore. It operates through three segments: Exchanges, Fixed Income and Data Services, and Mortgage Technology. The Exchanges segment operates regulated marketplace technology for the listing, trading, and clearing of an array of derivatives contracts and financial securities, as well as data and connectivity services related to its exchanges and clearing houses. 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It's ticker is UDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:52) is 35.65. You can find more information about UDR, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UDR\n\nUDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of September 30, 2025, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,535 apartment homes, including 300 apartment homes under development. For over 53 years, UDR has delivered long-term value to shareholders, the best standard of service to Residents and the highest quality experience for Associates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UDR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of UDR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-12-22, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "UDR's close price rises?", "post_id": 41244, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766427408.527077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766427408.527077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5398597337495531 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 11.0, 6.0, 22.0, 6.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.405568555399306, "peer_score": 2.529038400334608, "coverage": 0.992038767028738, "relative_legacy_score": 0.017972579267452226, "weighted_coverage": 0.992038767028738, "spot_peer_score": 2.6875039783542567, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.405568555399306, "peer_archived_score": 2.529038400334608, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.017972579267452226, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.6875039783542567, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "UDR, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is UDR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-12-21 02:47:52) is 35.65. You can find more information about UDR, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UDR\n\nUDR, Inc. (NYSE: UDR), an S&P 500 company, is a leading multifamily real estate investment trust with a demonstrated performance history of delivering superior and dependable returns by successfully managing, buying, selling, developing and redeveloping attractive real estate communities in targeted U.S. markets. As of September 30, 2025, UDR owned or had an ownership position in 60,535 apartment homes, including 300 apartment homes under development. For over 53 years, UDR has delivered long-term value to shareholders, the best standard of service to Residents and the highest quality experience for Associates.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"UDR\"}}`" }, { "id": 41242, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-attacks-venezuela-in-dec-2025jan-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:23.051615Z", "published_at": "2025-12-22T14:48:22Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T05:55:50.424409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:24.590751Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T13:31:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T05:53:00Z", "open_time": "2025-12-22T14:48:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32919, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - Spring Warmup - 2025-12-22", "slug": "minibench-2025-12-22", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-22T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-18T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-30T13:00:28Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:18:56.401598Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-03T23:21:57.466859Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 40950, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 45.00% on 2026-01-04 for the Metaculus question \"Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-12-21T02:52:23.052038Z", "open_time": "2025-12-22T14:48:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-04T13:31:54Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T05:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-01-03T05:53:38.288734Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-22T16:18:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40950\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40950,\"question_id\":40643,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40950). If the community prediction on 2026-01-04 13:31:54 is higher than 45.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US attacks Venezuela in Dec 2025/Jan 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41242, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1766418609.674208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1766418609.674208, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40986707699984987 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 2.0, 7.0, 1.0, 20.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40950\n- Original question title: Will the United States attack Venezuela in December 2025 or January 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-12-21: 45.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2025 and before February 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Venezuela's territory includes territorial waters.\n> \n> To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n> \n> If it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as **ambiguous**. In case of an attack where there is no credible source consensus that it occurred within Venezuela's territory and neither the US nor Venezuela claims that it did, this question will not resolve based on that incident.\n> \n> If an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \n> \n> Due to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\n> \n> During the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\n> \n> After Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\n> \n> On August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40950,\"question_id\":40643,\"last_cp\":0.45}}`" }, { "id": 41214, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high price before October 6, 2026?", "short_title": "Bitcoin ATH before Oct 6, 2026?", "url_title": "Bitcoin ATH before Oct 6, 2026?", "slug": "bitcoin-ath-before-oct-6-2026", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-17T16:54:43.624647Z", "published_at": "2025-12-18T17:12:57Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T10:01:41.409361Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-18T17:13:58.049572Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-05T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-19T17:12:57Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32927, "name": "2025-2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40928, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high price before October 6, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-17T16:54:43.625099Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T17:12:57Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-23T17:12:57Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-23T17:12:57Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-06T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-05T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-05T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and most widely adopted cryptocurrency. Its price has historically shown significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of \\$126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 before falling (according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)).\n\nThe price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including:\n\n* Institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, corporate holdings)\n* Macroeconomic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, monetary policies) \n* Regulatory developments (e.g., government restrictions, taxation, legal status) \n* Technological advancements (e.g., Layer 2 solutions, network upgrades)\n* Market sentiment and speculation\n\nSeveral financial institutions and analysts have provided forecasts for Bitcoin’s price:\n\n* [Bitwise](https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2026), [Standard Charter and Bernstein](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/bitcoin-bulls-standard-chartered-bernstein-pare-back-most-ambitious-forecasts?embedded-checkout=true) predicts BTC to reach a new ATH in 2026.\n* [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/12/16/serious-2026-3-trillion-crypto-collapse-fed-warning-issued-10000-bitcoin-price-predicted-as-crash-fears-swirl/) has warned of a possible huge crash in BTC price.\n\nBitcoin has been [priced below \\$100,000 since November 13, 2025](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 6, 2026, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than \\$126,198.07 and the date of that ATH price is between December 17, 2025 and October 6, 2026.", "fine_print": "Since the price of Bitcoin varies on different exchanges, it is possible that different statistics sites mention slightly different values for ATH. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the highest price recorded on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/).\n\nIf the resolution source is no longer available or otherwise unusable, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to resolve this question.", "short_title": "Bitcoin ATH before Oct 6, 2026?", "post_id": 41214, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768212090.438569, "end_time": 1768598862.512, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.739 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768212090.438569, "end_time": 1768598862.512, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.739 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5758255038420965 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0033055620404796, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1016577561159266, 0.5457734721688206, 0.38296948584461915, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first and most widely adopted cryptocurrency. Its price has historically shown significant volatility, reaching an all-time high of \\$126,198.07 on October 6, 2025 before falling (according to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)).\n\nThe price of Bitcoin is influenced by multiple factors, including:\n\n* Institutional adoption (e.g., Bitcoin ETFs, corporate holdings)\n* Macroeconomic conditions (e.g., inflation, interest rates, monetary policies) \n* Regulatory developments (e.g., government restrictions, taxation, legal status) \n* Technological advancements (e.g., Layer 2 solutions, network upgrades)\n* Market sentiment and speculation\n\nSeveral financial institutions and analysts have provided forecasts for Bitcoin’s price:\n\n* [Bitwise](https://bitwiseinvestments.com/crypto-market-insights/the-year-ahead-10-crypto-predictions-for-2026), [Standard Charter and Bernstein](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/bitcoin-bulls-standard-chartered-bernstein-pare-back-most-ambitious-forecasts?embedded-checkout=true) predicts BTC to reach a new ATH in 2026.\n* [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2025/12/16/serious-2026-3-trillion-crypto-collapse-fed-warning-issued-10000-bitcoin-price-predicted-as-crash-fears-swirl/) has warned of a possible huge crash in BTC price.\n\nBitcoin has been [priced below \\$100,000 since November 13, 2025](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/)." }, { "id": 41212, "title": "Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "short_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "url_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "slug": "nasa-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-before-2030", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-17T12:21:05.772161Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T01:29:09Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-10T15:15:53.937248Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-19T01:29:14.592461Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-20T01:29:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40926, "title": "Will NASA build a completed nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-12-17T12:21:05.772604Z", "open_time": "2025-12-20T01:29:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-24T01:29:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-24T01:29:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2:\n\n> It is the policy of the United States to:\n> (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources;\n> (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and\n> (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets.\n\nOn August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030. \n\n> Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly.\n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), \"questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals.\"\n\nThe idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \\$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be [\"the only technological option available\" - \"it’s ambitious, but definitely possible\"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a fully built nuclear reactor is located anywhere on the Moon's surface and that NASA is fully or partially responsible for this.", "fine_print": "The nuclear reactor does not have to be operational, it only needs to be fully built and ready for testing, testing does not need to have been commenced.\n\nThe resolution will be based on [official NASA communications](https://www.nasa.gov/news-release/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "short_title": "NASA nuclear reactor on the moon before 2030?", "post_id": 41212, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768058143.025854, "end_time": 1774001927.06, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768058143.025854, "end_time": 1774001927.06, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06293076398133193 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.5647300210092348, 0.9517518452114345, 0.022778484283569433, 0.9770695619689431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.9111057671041434, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 23, 2025, US President Donald J. Trump signed an [Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/05/deploying-advanced-nuclear-reactor-technologies-for-national-security/). Under Section 2:\n\n> It is the policy of the United States to:\n> (a) ensure the rapid development, deployment, and use of advanced nuclear technologies to support national security objectives, such as the protection and operation of critical infrastructure, critical defense facilities, and other mission capability resources;\n> (b) enable private sector investment, innovation, development, and use of advanced nuclear technologies in the United States, recognizing their benefit to national security, by aligning incentives across the Federal Government to fully leverage federally owned uranium and plutonium resources declared excess to defense needs, related nuclear material, supply chain components, and research and development infrastructure; and\n> (c) coordinate regulatory efforts across the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy, ensuring that these agencies optimize resources and risk allocation in accordance with their respective missions sets.\n\nOn August 4, 2025, US transport secretary Sean Duffy, who was appointed temporary head of NASA by the US President, declared the [intent](https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/nasa-fsp-directive-aug42.pdf?emrc=4b2928) to put a nuclear reactor on the Moon by the first quarter of fiscal year 2030. \n\n> Executive Summary • Fission surface power (FSP) is both an essential and sustainable segment of the lunar and Mars power architectures for future human space exploration missions. • The FSP project leverages innovation in commercial microreactor technologies specifically referenced in the White House’s 23 May 2025 Executive Order 14299 “Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security”. • To properly advance this critical technology to be able to support a future lunar economy, high power energy generation on Mars, and to strengthen our national security in space, it is imperative the agency move quickly.\n\nAs reported by [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cev2dylxv74o), \"questions remain about how realistic the goal and timeframe are, given recent and steep Nasa budget cuts, and some scientists are concerned that the plans are driven by geopolitical goals.\"\n\nThe idea of building a nuclear reactor as a power source on the Moon is not new (in 2022 [Nasa issued three \\$5m contracts to companies to design a reactor](https://www.powermag.com/nasa-picks-three-nuclear-power-concepts-for-demonstration-on-the-moon/)) as it appears to be [\"the only technological option available\" - \"it’s ambitious, but definitely possible\"](https://www.innovationnewsnetwork.com/inside-us-plans-to-build-a-nuclear-reactor-on-the-moon-by-2030/60683/)." }, { "id": 41206, "title": "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-anthropic-file-an-s-1-before-july-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-15T23:19:19.237344Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T23:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T00:28:38.610157Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-15T23:25:24.579741Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-17T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32927, "name": "2025-2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial 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"question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T11:07:01.583383Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } }, "question": { "id": 40916, "title": "Will Anthropic file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-15T23:19:19.237702Z", "open_time": "2025-12-17T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T23:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T23:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n\n> Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n\n> For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n\nAccording to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n\n> Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthropic, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of Claude, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before July 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. Whether the IPO actually occurs does not affect resolution.", "short_title": "Will Anthropic file an S-1 before July 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1768177708.286927, "end_time": 1768733320.192, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1768177708.286927, "end_time": 1768733320.192, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.570895902540122 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9239896352751821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4816784189363106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8663663060284124, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.19128230802308263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11155005983376856 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNBC December 2, 2025: [Anthropic reportedly preparing for one of the largest IPOs ever in race with OpenAI: FT](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/03/anthropic-claude-reportedly-preparing-ipo-race-openai-chatgpt-ft-wilson-sonsini-goodrich-rosati.html)\n\n> Anthropic, the AI startup behind the popular Claude chatbot, is in early talks to launch one of the largest initial public offerings as early as next year, the Financial Times reported Wednesday.\n\n> For the potential IPO, Anthropic has engaged law firm Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati, which has previously worked on high-profile tech IPOs such as Google, LinkedIn and Lyft, the FT said, citing two sources familiar with the matter.\n\nAccording to [The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/2025/12/11/an-anthropic-ipo-could-be-here-sooner-than-we-thou/) analyst Matt Frankel (emphasis added):\n\n> Right now, \\[Anthropic is] valued at about \\$350 billion reportedly in an ongoing funding round to which **Microsoft** and **Nvidia** have already committed \\$15 billion. It's not like they can't raise money privately, but this is up from \\$183 billion valuations, almost double in a September funding round. It really shows you the magnitude of hype surrounding these big AI players. Now it's not as if Anthropic as a pre-revenue business, so it's making money. It expects to end this year with \\$9 billion in annual recurring revenue, management's projecting that to rise to over 20 billion next year, and they have a pretty ambitious, again, a target of 70 billion for 2028. It all depends really on the rapid growth in AI spending. My real thought is, if the IPO market's doing what it's doing and the AI market is doing what they're doing now, then **2026 is a good target, even toward the first half.** If the market cools, this could be delayed significantly. It's going to depend on what they think they can get out of the market. But as it stands now, it's not surprising to see a sense of urgency develop." }, { "id": 41205, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before March 15, 2026?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-march-15-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:29.728227Z", "published_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:30Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T09:02:57.373712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-16T01:02:52.301985Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-16T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32927, "name": "2025-2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T11:07:01.583383Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T11:07:01.583383Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<img src=\"https://cdn.metaculus.com/Metaculus_Learning_Academy_Logo_K6rKhv7.png\" alt=\"Metaculus Learning Academy logo\">\r\n<div align=\"right\">" } }, "question": { "id": 40915, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO, before March 15, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-15T19:36:29.728598Z", "open_time": "2025-12-16T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-20T19:36:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-20T19:36:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-15T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-14T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "From [Invezz](https://in.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/spacex-to-openai-mega-ipos-set-to-debut-in-2026-5152303) via Investing.com: \n\n> OpenAI is laying early groundwork for an IPO that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion.\n\n> The ChatGPT maker is considering filing with regulators as early as the second half of 2026, with CFO Sarah Friar indicating to associates that the company is targeting a 2027 listing, though advisers say it could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth—expected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-end—is matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI, or any subsidiary directly involved in the creation or commercialization of ChatGPT, files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before March 15, 2026.", "fine_print": "Please note that this question asks about the filing of an S-1. 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could come sooner.\n\n> The potential offering follows a significant restructuring completed this week, creating a new corporate structure under the OpenAI Foundation, which now holds a 26% stake.\n\n> OpenAI’s rapid revenue growth—expected to reach an annualized run rate of \\$20 billion by year-end—is matched by mounting losses and rising capital needs, particularly as CEO Sam Altman pursues multi-trillion-dollar investments in AI infrastructure." }, { "id": 41193, "title": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "short_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "url_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "slug": "i-safety-law-enacted-in-the-us-in-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-14T21:14:41.480667Z", "published_at": "2025-12-19T19:12:40Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T10:00:38.404414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T11:12:56.039428Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32880, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2026 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/acx-2026-cover-3.jpg", "prize_pool": "10000.00", "start_date": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "close_date": "2027-01-01T18:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-05T00:42:55.923048Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-12T11:12:56.039428Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<h3>An Annual Forecasting Tradition</h3>\r\n<p>What began as Scott Alexander publishing annual predictions on Slate Star Codex and later <a hr" } }, "question": { "id": 40912, "title": "Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?", "created_at": "2025-12-14T21:14:41.481093Z", "open_time": "2025-12-19T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-18T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment. \n\nPresident Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: \"\\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.\" \n\nBiden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests.\n\nSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on \"a single national framework\" regarding development of AI, \"which makes sure we can win this race.\"\n\nOne bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States federal government enacts a law or executive order, after December 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, which introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models.\n\nFor purposes of this question, an “AI safety requirement” is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system’s general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls. Such requirements count only if they are imposed on the basis of the model’s general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model), rather than on the basis of a specific application, audience, or content category. They do not include requirements about privacy, copyright, or federal procurement.", "fine_print": "\"Private entity\" is [defined](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/6/1501#15_A) as \"any person or private group, organization, proprietorship, partnership, trust, cooperative, corporation, or other commercial or nonprofit entity, including an officer, employee, or agent thereof.\" It does not include governments, government agencies or departments, or foreign powers.\n\nAn example of an executive order that would count is [EO 14110](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_14110) signed October 30, 2023, which (among other things) ordered the Secretary of Commerce to require developers of certain advanced AI models to conduct red-teaming tests \"to enable deployment of safe, secure, and trustworthy systems.\"\n\nAn example of an EO that would not count is [Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/eliminating-state-law-obstruction-of-national-artificial-intelligence-policy/) signed December 11, 2025, which does not introduce new AI safety requirements on the developers or deployers of AI models and instead says, \"To win, United States AI companies must be free to innovate without cumbersome regulation.\" Another that would not count is [EO 13960](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/12/08/2020-27065/promoting-the-use-of-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence-in-the-federal-government), signed December 3, 2020, because it specifically imposes requirements on government agencies but imposes no new requirements on private entities developing or deploying AI models.\n\nAn executive order is [defined](https://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_education/publications/teaching-legal-docs/what-is-an-executive-order-/) as any presidential document with an executive order number published in the Federal Register. Orders that do not have such a number, such as administrative orders or presidential proclamations, will not count for this question.", "short_title": "ΑI safety law enacted in the US in 2026?", "post_id": 41193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 670, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are [currently](https://www.whitecase.com/insight-our-thinking/ai-watch-global-regulatory-tracker-united-states) no comprehensive US federal laws or regulations imposing safety regulations on AI development or deployment. \n\nPresident Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, and three days later he [rescinded](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/removing-barriers-to-american-leadership-in-artificial-intelligence/) President Joe Biden's EO 14110: \"\\[revoking] certain existing AI policies and directives that act as barriers to American AI innovation, clearing a path for the United States to act decisively to retain global leadership in artificial intelligence.\" \n\nBiden's order had required companies developing AI models to file reports with the US government on security measures and on its red-team cybersecurity tests.\n\nSriram Krishnan, Senior White House Policy Advisor on Artificial Intelligence, [told](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/white-house-congress-single-framework-142447823.html) CNBC on December 12, 2025 that the Trump Administration would be working with Congress on \"a single national framework\" regarding development of AI, \"which makes sure we can win this race.\"\n\nOne bill introduced in September 2025, [S. 2938](https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/2938/cosponsors)**,** co-sponsored by Senators Josh Hawley (R-MO) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), would prohibit the deployment of an advanced AI system in interstate or foreign commerce unless the developer participates in a program to evaluate model safety." }, { "id": 41190, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "short_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "url_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "slug": "agi-transition-beneficial-for-humanity", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:37.997748Z", "published_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:38Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-05T07:00:00.345734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-12-14T06:01:05.535209Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-12-15T05:58:38Z", "nr_forecasters": 113, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-11T22:05:29.089273Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-11T22:05:29.089273Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 40909, "title": "[PRACTICE] Will there be a positive transition to a world with radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence?", "created_at": "2025-12-14T05:58:37.998212Z", "open_time": "2025-12-15T05:58:38Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-12-19T05:58:38Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-12-19T05:58:38Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\r\n\r\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals.", "resolution_criteria": "A world is said to have \"radically smarter-than-human artificial intelligence\" if there exists at least one artificial system that can outperform all contemporaneous humans at any non-trivial intellectual or physical task, such as proving mathematical theorems, engineering, scientific research, and manual labor. A positive transition to such a world is said to be a transition where the dominant influence over the future course of history takes place under the direction of widely held moral ideals.\r\n\r\nAs a negative example, if a dictator created a superintelligence and used it to amass wealth for himself at the expense of the rest of humanity, this does not count. Likewise, if humans succeed at creating some superintelligences but mistakenly fail to create one that shares human values, then [this also doesn't count](https://intelligence.org/stanford-talk/) as a positive transition.\r\n\r\nWhile it is exceptionally difficult to come up with an operationalization for this question that could yield no false negatives or positives, my current guess is that if Metaculus still exists after such a transition, it will be obvious whether the transition was positive. Therefore, I leave the resolution up to moderator discretion.\r\n\r\nIf no such transition occurs before 2300, this question will resolve as \\**Ambiguous.*", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "agi transition beneficial for humanity", "post_id": 41190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1767822049.918, "end_time": 1860745977.587, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1767822049.918, "end_time": 1860745977.587, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.28618954193909735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.59364205117651, 0.012630607718125297, 0.007084270917400775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1478430754715826, 0.0, 0.7338388773387357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07152163762997933, 0.00021721036730799502, 0.0007442701451381057, 0.4297799599689597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4965153418107677, 0.0, 2.2792386977677723, 0.6268487037441534, 0.0, 0.6962693773302724, 0.0, 1.425012573830483, 0.5625702260976513, 0.5061984881595668, 0.21390272168428384, 0.0, 2.350178955342166, 0.0, 1.3128151500859992, 0.03409530957887578, 0.0028831904530317756, 1.5277022087314225, 0.0, 0.002539280627490721, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1892527171448384, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.1799794362614757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0063899663382671465, 0.0, 0.6962650854290111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08205310876924848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011519742289570785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016870797780243333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002984801894823708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004940915054150324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 220, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A world with radically smarter-than-human intelligence would probably be very different than the one we live in today. [Bostrom (2003)](https://nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html) speculated on the likely outcome following the creation of artificial superintelligence,\r\n\r\n> It is hard to think of any problem that a superintelligence could not either solve or at least help us solve. Disease, poverty, environmental destruction, unnecessary suffering of all kinds: these are things that a superintelligence equipped with advanced nanotechnology would be capable of eliminating. Additionally, a superintelligence could give us indefinite lifespan, either by stopping and reversing the aging process through the use of nanomedicine, or by offering us the option to upload ourselves. A superintelligence could also create opportunities for us to vastly increase our own intellectual and emotional capabilities, and it could assist us in creating a highly appealing experiential world in which we could live lives devoted to in joyful game-playing, relating to each other, experiencing, personal growth, and to living closer to our ideals." } ] }
