Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6360, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 40555, "title": "Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese chips sold to Russia by 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese chips sold to Russia by 2030?", "slug": "chinese-chips-sold-to-russia-by-2030", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T12:13:47.036926Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T09:15:35Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T00:03:03.461294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-06T09:17:18.698485Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:15:35Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40130, "title": "Will China publicly sell domestic AI accelerators to Russia by 2030?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T12:13:47.037301Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:15:35Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T09:15:35Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T09:15:35Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators, and due to sanctions cannot legally acquire western AI chips. China is therefore its only potential source of legal access to AI chips, though to date there have been no reported cases of China exporting domestically produced AI accelerators. \n\nIt is unclear if China would be willing to sell compute to Russia. China is itself highly constrained on its access to AI compute due to US export controls, and would face further pressure from the US and Europe if it opted to sell AI chips to Russia. China may prefer to export only cloud access to AI chips and applications, rather than direct export of chips to Russia. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before 2030, either Russia or China publicly acknowledges the export of domestically-produced Chinese AI accelerators to Russia. ", "fine_print": "Public acknowledgment entails statements by the Russian or Chinese governments, that domestically-produced Chinese chips have been sold and physically exported to Russia from China. \n\nDomestically-produced Chinese AI accelerators are those designed and sold by Chinese firms e.g. Huawei Ascend chips. Not all components or production stages need to occur within China, rather the chips needs to be the product of a Chinese firm (e.g. an Ascend 910C using a TSMC produced die would count as a Chinese chip)", "post_id": 40555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763337773.260025, "end_time": 1771286573.058, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763337773.260025, "end_time": 1771286573.058, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7684579747817466 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators, and due to sanctions cannot legally acquire western AI chips. China is therefore its only potential source of legal access to AI chips, though to date there have been no reported cases of China exporting domestically produced AI accelerators. \n\nIt is unclear if China would be willing to sell compute to Russia. China is itself highly constrained on its access to AI compute due to US export controls, and would face further pressure from the US and Europe if it opted to sell AI chips to Russia. China may prefer to export only cloud access to AI chips and applications, rather than direct export of chips to Russia. " }, { "id": 40554, "title": "Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?", "short_title": "Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?", "url_title": "Russian theft of frontier AI weights by 2030?", "slug": "russian-theft-of-frontier-ai-weights-by-2030", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T11:37:31.912459Z", "published_at": "2025-11-06T09:13:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:45:58.538479Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-06T09:15:19.352431Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:13:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40129, "title": "Will a frontier AI developer publicly accuse a Russian actor of stealing their model weights before 2030?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T11:37:31.912865Z", "open_time": "2025-11-07T09:13:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-11T09:13:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-11T09:13:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Model weights represent the core intellectual property of frontier AI systems, the product of hundreds of millions of dollars in compute and research. Once stolen, weights can be deployed without replicating the training process, making them extremely high-value targets for cyber espionage.\n\nRAND has identified [38 distinct attack vectors](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA2849-1.html) for model weight theft, ranging from insider threats to supply chain compromises. As of 2025, most frontier AI labs maintain security below the standards RAND recommends for defending against state-level threats.\n\nRussia currently has no indigenous ability to produce compute, and is entirely reliant on smuggling or Chinese exports for compute. This strictly limits its ability to train models near the frontier of capabilities, meaning theft of model weights is a potential pathway for it to enhance its AI capabilities. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, before 2030, a frontier AI developer publicly accuses a Russian actor with successfully stealing their model weights. ", "fine_print": "A frontier AI developer is defined as a firm that has trained an AI model >10^26 FLOPS in size.\n\nA Russian actor is defined as an entity that is based within Russia or affiliated with the Russian government.", "post_id": 40554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763336748.026285, "end_time": 1770491679.357, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763336748.026285, "end_time": 1770491679.357, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.6 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Model weights represent the core intellectual property of frontier AI systems, the product of hundreds of millions of dollars in compute and research. Once stolen, weights can be deployed without replicating the training process, making them extremely high-value targets for cyber espionage.\n\nRAND has identified [38 distinct attack vectors](https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA2849-1.html) for model weight theft, ranging from insider threats to supply chain compromises. As of 2025, most frontier AI labs maintain security below the standards RAND recommends for defending against state-level threats.\n\nRussia currently has no indigenous ability to produce compute, and is entirely reliant on smuggling or Chinese exports for compute. This strictly limits its ability to train models near the frontier of capabilities, meaning theft of model weights is a potential pathway for it to enhance its AI capabilities. " }, { "id": 40552, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?", "short_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before 2027?", "url_title": "Will OpenAI file an S-1 before 2027?", "slug": "will-openai-file-an-s-1-before-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-30T01:42:31.720330Z", "published_at": "2025-11-02T10:02:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T06:03:29.253386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-02T10:04:38.305585Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:02:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40128, "title": "Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-30T01:42:31.720736Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:02:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-07T10:02:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-07T10:02:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI files a public, non-confidential [SEC Form S-1](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sec-form-s-1.asp) at the U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's [EDGAR](https://www.sec.gov/search-filings) database with a filing date before January 1, 2027.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763272998.814371, "end_time": 1764776935.338, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763272998.814371, "end_time": 1764776935.338, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.49689642727664907 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7088250103212406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Reuters Exclusive (via Yahoo! Finance): [OpenAI lays groundwork for juggernaut IPO at up to \\$1 trillion valuation](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-232125990.html) (October 29, 2025):\n\n> [OpenAI](https://www.yahoo.com/organizations/openai/) is laying the groundwork for an initial public offering that could value the company at up to \\$1 trillion, three people familiar with the matter said, in what could be one of the biggest IPOs of all time.\n\n> OpenAI is considering filing with securities regulators as soon as the second half of 2026, some of the people said. In preliminary discussions, the company has looked at raising \\$60 billion at the low end and likely more, the people said. They cautioned that talks are early and plans - including the figures and timing - could change depending on business growth and market conditions.\n\n> Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing, the people said. But some advisers predict it could come even sooner, around late 2026.\n\nFrom [SiliconAngle](https://siliconangle.com/2025/10/29/openai-reportedly-planning-2026-2027-ipo-valuation-1t/):\n\n> If and when the IPO comes, it will be the biggest IPO in history. The current record for money raised in a single IPO was Saudi Aramco, which raised \\$25.6 billion in December 2019. The second-highest and the largest tech IPO to date was Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., which raised \\$26 billion in 2014.\n\n> With the restructure complete, OpenAI now has the ability to go public, but how soon is the question. If it does decide to go public, the listing would open doors for OpenAI when it comes to additional capital raising and the ability to make large acquisitions using its stock.\n\n> And if one thing is clear about OpenAI, it’s that it loves new funding. The company has already raised [at least](https://platform.tracxn.com/a/d/company/566fc72ee4b0be04a58d6733/openai.com#a:key-metrics) \\$57.9 billion in funding, more than likely the largest amount ever raised by a single tech startup company." }, { "id": 40546, "title": "Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?", "short_title": ">10,000 GPU cluster in Russia by 2027?", "url_title": ">10,000 GPU cluster in Russia by 2027?", "slug": "10000-gpu-cluster-in-russia-by-2027", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-29T10:42:59.104669Z", "published_at": "2025-11-08T09:43:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T23:48:43.581709Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T09:45:35.209647Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-09T09:43:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40107, "title": "Will Russia have an AI data center with >10,000 H100e before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-29T10:42:59.105123Z", "open_time": "2025-11-09T09:43:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-13T09:43:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-13T09:43:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators or any of their key inputs, and so is entirely reliant on overseas supply. Sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine war cut it off from legal access to western AI chips, and there have to date been no reported cases of Chinese exports of AI chips.\n\nUnverified reporting places Russian AI leader Sberbank’s stockpile of GPUs at [9,000 as of February 2025](http://rferl.org/a/deepseek-russian-ai-sber-yandex-kandinsky-censorship/33305704.html). Though it is unlikely these are all integrated into a single data centre campus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if, before 2027, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that there is an AI data center with ≥10,000 H100e of AI accelerators located within Russia.", "fine_print": "This question will only resolve as Yes if the ≥10,000 H100e of AI accelerators is located at a single location, multiple centers that collectively reach ≥10,000 H100e will not qualify.\n\nCredible sources do not need to specifically report a value of \"≥10,000 H100e\" so long as they report an amount of AI accelerators reaching that metric, this question will resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 40546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763336913.02831, "end_time": 1770731813.049, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763336913.02831, "end_time": 1770731813.049, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20000000000000004 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2086429191039083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia faces severe limitations on its access to AI compute, critical for developing and deploying AI at scale. Russia has no ability to indigenously produce AI accelerators or any of their key inputs, and so is entirely reliant on overseas supply. Sanctions related to the Russia-Ukraine war cut it off from legal access to western AI chips, and there have to date been no reported cases of Chinese exports of AI chips.\n\nUnverified reporting places Russian AI leader Sberbank’s stockpile of GPUs at [9,000 as of February 2025](http://rferl.org/a/deepseek-russian-ai-sber-yandex-kandinsky-censorship/33305704.html). Though it is unlikely these are all integrated into a single data centre campus." }, { "id": 40543, "title": "Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?", "short_title": "Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?", "url_title": "Russian LLM in Chatbot Arena top 100 before 2027?", "slug": "russian-llm-in-chatbot-arena-top-100-before-2027", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-28T15:10:35.715814Z", "published_at": "2025-11-02T10:25:19Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T18:29:38.574988Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-02T10:26:21.908968Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:25:19Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40104, "title": "Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-28T15:10:35.716256Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T10:25:19Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-07T10:25:19Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-07T10:25:19Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [LMSYS Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is a community-driven evaluation platform where users compare language models through pairwise blind comparisons. With over 5 million user votes, the Arena uses an Elo rating system (similar to chess rankings) to rank LLMs based on real-world conversational performance. \n\nAs of November 2025, no Russian-developed LLMs are within the top 100 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, despite significant domestic efforts such as GigaChat (developed by Sberbank) and YandexGPT (developed by Yandex).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, at any point after November 1, 2025 and before January 1, 2027, a Russian developed model appears in the top 100 on the [LMArena Overall Text Leaderboard](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text).", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the organisation listed by LMArena for the model, must be headquartered in Russia.", "post_id": 40543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763231368.229624, "end_time": 1764837361.769, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763231368.229624, "end_time": 1764837361.769, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.2660784096589497 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [LMSYS Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text) is a community-driven evaluation platform where users compare language models through pairwise blind comparisons. With over 5 million user votes, the Arena uses an Elo rating system (similar to chess rankings) to rank LLMs based on real-world conversational performance. \n\nAs of November 2025, no Russian-developed LLMs are within the top 100 on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, despite significant domestic efforts such as GigaChat (developed by Sberbank) and YandexGPT (developed by Yandex)." }, { "id": 40542, "title": "Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?", "short_title": "GigaChat ≥100B parameters open model before 2027?", "url_title": "GigaChat ≥100B parameters open model before 2027?", "slug": "gigachat-100b-parameters-open-model-before-2027", "author_id": 141825, "author_username": "HamishL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-28T14:02:01.478546Z", "published_at": "2025-11-02T09:57:44Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T15:34:27.611931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-02T09:58:11.307587Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-03T09:57:44Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 40103, "title": "Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-10-28T14:02:01.478999Z", "open_time": "2025-11-03T09:57:44Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-07T09:57:44Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-07T09:57:44Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2025, [GigaChat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GigaChat) released three open-source models based on the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture with 20 billion total parameters (3.3 billion active). GigaChat is developed by SaluteDevices, a subsidiary of Sberbank, one of Russia's largest financial institutions and a leading player in Russian AI development. While the team has released smaller open-weights models, they maintain proprietary versions (GigaChat Pro and GigaChat MAX) for which no architectural details or weights have been disclosed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before 2027, GigaChat, SaluteDevice, or Sberbank publicly releases model weights for a large language model with ≥100 billion total parameters.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question the weights must be downloadable without requiring individual per-user approval or payment.\n\nJoint ventures where GigaChat provides the primary technical contribution will count, while models where GigaChat only provides fine-tuning or other secondary contributions will not qualify for this question.", "post_id": 40542, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762270456.689302, "end_time": 1764837394.657, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762270456.689302, "end_time": 1764837394.657, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.49 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2025, [GigaChat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GigaChat) released three open-source models based on the Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture with 20 billion total parameters (3.3 billion active). GigaChat is developed by SaluteDevices, a subsidiary of Sberbank, one of Russia's largest financial institutions and a leading player in Russian AI development. While the team has released smaller open-weights models, they maintain proprietary versions (GigaChat Pro and GigaChat MAX) for which no architectural details or weights have been disclosed." }, { "id": 40539, "title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA through December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA through December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-sean-duffy-be-acting-administrator-of-nasa-through-december-31-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-27T22:42:00.170047Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T22:50:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T00:31:02.116454Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-27T22:50:45.088640Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-28T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T21:56:16.480517Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T21:56:16.480517Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 40101, "title": "Will Sean Duffy be Acting Administrator of NASA continuously through December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-27T22:42:00.170611Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-01T22:50:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-01T22:50:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "CNN: [Sean Duffy irks White House as drama over top job at NASA seeps into public view](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/27/politics/sean-duffy-nasa-transportation)\n\n> Some Trump administration officials, including at the White House, have expressed frustration with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy in recent weeks as internal wrangling over who will lead NASA spilled into public view, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.\n\nSpace Explored: [Will NASA get a permanent Administrator any time soon?](https://spaceexplored.com/2025/10/26/will-nasa-get-a-permanent-administrator-any-time-soon/)\n\n> It’s been nine months into President Trump’s second term, and the government’s most popular and beloved agency is still without proper leadership. Some rumbles have made it sound like that could change soon, but we’re still awaiting official word.\n\n> Isaacman is back… maybe\n\n> According to [Bloomberg](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/billionaire-isaacman-met-with-trump-over-top-nasa-job/ar-AA1OamQb?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds\\&utm_source=ActiveCampaign\\&utm_medium=email\\&utm_content=Another%20chance%20for%20Jared%20Isaacman%3F\\&utm_campaign=FIRST%20UP%20-%202025-10-10), Jared Isaacman has had conversations both with President Trump and Acting Administrator Sean Duffy about taking over the agency once more. While discussions have reportedly been tense, they have also been promising that Isaacman is being renominated.\n\n> While Duffy seems to be enjoying himself at NASA, being one of the more forgiving positions in US politics, he also heads the Department of Transportation, a much more serious and, at the moment, dire agency in need of leadership. That hasn’t stopped Duffy from suggesting NASA should come under the DoT’s governance, potentially gaining more benefits under a cabinet-level department.\n\n> However, for now, Duffy agrees he cannot stay on at NASA forever, but no limit has been set for when a replacement is to be nominated.\n\nSean Duffy is a former reality TV contestant on MTV's Real World. In 2025 he was confirmed by the US Senate as the Transportation Secretary under President Donald J. Trump. In July 2025 he was [appointed](https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/07/10/transportation-secretary-sean-duffy-picked-as-interim-nasa-administrator/) by President Trump as acting NASA Administrator, under the auspices of the [Federal Vacancies Reform Act](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44997) of 1998.\n\nSee also from Metaculus: [Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/)[\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/#comments)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sean Duffy is NASA’s acting administrator continuously through December 31, 2025, according to [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/nasa-leadership/) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": " If he leaves the role before then, the question resolves as **No**. ", "post_id": 40539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763339451.760626, "end_time": 1763861489.693, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763339451.760626, "end_time": 1763861489.693, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4615025736412318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6011664458479348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CNN: [Sean Duffy irks White House as drama over top job at NASA seeps into public view](https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/27/politics/sean-duffy-nasa-transportation)\n\n> Some Trump administration officials, including at the White House, have expressed frustration with Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy in recent weeks as internal wrangling over who will lead NASA spilled into public view, two sources familiar with the matter told CNN.\n\nSpace Explored: [Will NASA get a permanent Administrator any time soon?](https://spaceexplored.com/2025/10/26/will-nasa-get-a-permanent-administrator-any-time-soon/)\n\n> It’s been nine months into President Trump’s second term, and the government’s most popular and beloved agency is still without proper leadership. Some rumbles have made it sound like that could change soon, but we’re still awaiting official word.\n\n> Isaacman is back… maybe\n\n> According to [Bloomberg](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/billionaire-isaacman-met-with-trump-over-top-nasa-job/ar-AA1OamQb?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds\\&utm_source=ActiveCampaign\\&utm_medium=email\\&utm_content=Another%20chance%20for%20Jared%20Isaacman%3F\\&utm_campaign=FIRST%20UP%20-%202025-10-10), Jared Isaacman has had conversations both with President Trump and Acting Administrator Sean Duffy about taking over the agency once more. While discussions have reportedly been tense, they have also been promising that Isaacman is being renominated.\n\n> While Duffy seems to be enjoying himself at NASA, being one of the more forgiving positions in US politics, he also heads the Department of Transportation, a much more serious and, at the moment, dire agency in need of leadership. That hasn’t stopped Duffy from suggesting NASA should come under the DoT’s governance, potentially gaining more benefits under a cabinet-level department.\n\n> However, for now, Duffy agrees he cannot stay on at NASA forever, but no limit has been set for when a replacement is to be nominated.\n\nSean Duffy is a former reality TV contestant on MTV's Real World. In 2025 he was confirmed by the US Senate as the Transportation Secretary under President Donald J. Trump. In July 2025 he was [appointed](https://spaceflightnow.com/2025/07/10/transportation-secretary-sean-duffy-picked-as-interim-nasa-administrator/) by President Trump as acting NASA Administrator, under the auspices of the [Federal Vacancies Reform Act](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44997) of 1998.\n\nSee also from Metaculus: [Will Jared Isaacman be re-nominated as NASA Administrator before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/)[\n](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40434/isaacman-nasa-admin-in-2025/#comments)" }, { "id": 40523, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-hit-12-a-share-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.924545Z", "published_at": "2025-10-26T14:00:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T18:40:04.338305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:41.222510Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T14:00:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T21:54:50.768110Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T21:54:50.768110Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40084, "title": "Will Beyond Meat hit $12 a share before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.925231Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T14:00:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-31T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T01:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-04T18:40:03.950694Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T15:30:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40440,\"question_id\":40010}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat's stock price has a high during normal trading hours of greater than or equal to \\$12.00 after October 21, 2025 and before November 1, 2026, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/history/) or alternative credible sources.", "fine_print": "If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment, the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split. Typically this would be done by multiplying forward split prices by the split factor to align them with pre-split values and dividing reverse split prices by the split factor.", "post_id": 40523, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761492342.255015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.10500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15250000000000002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761492342.255015, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.10500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15250000000000002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.895, 0.10500000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.11947291820530286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 11.0, 2.0, 3.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 11.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.849336467179, "peer_score": 2.025986158929844, "coverage": 0.9839233170173786, "relative_legacy_score": -0.029239990793477014, "weighted_coverage": 0.9839233170173786, "spot_peer_score": 2.1725966852054124, "spot_baseline_score": 83.99595874895317, "baseline_archived_score": 82.849336467179, "peer_archived_score": 2.025986158929844, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.029239990793477014, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.1725966852054124, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 83.99595874895317 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 115, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the time of this question, Beyond Meat's stock price is up 769%, from \\$0.65 to \\$5.70, since announcing an expanded [distribution deal](https://investors.beyondmeat.com/news-releases/news-release-details/beyond-meatr-expands-distribution-walmart) with Walmart. Beyond Meat is the [most shorted](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-100-24-hours-beyond-191151936.html) stock in the United States, with analyst predictions of its bankruptcy. ([Example](https://www.thestreet.com/restaurants/beyond-meat-is-headed-to-chapter-11-bankruptcy))\n\nSee also [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2026/)\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40440,\"question_id\":40010}}`" }, { "id": 40522, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "url_title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "slug": "will-the-us-national-debt-be-under-385-trillion-on-december-31-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.357949Z", "published_at": "2025-10-26T13:28:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T14:59:00.484391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.589853Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-10-26T13:28:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T21:54:50.768110Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-17T21:54:50.768110Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 40083, "title": "Will the US national debt be under $38.5 trillion on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T06:12:40.358355Z", "open_time": "2025-10-26T13:28:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-26T14:58:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40435,\"question_id\":40005}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value for Total Public Debt Outstanding at the Debt to the Penny chart at the US Treasury's [Debt to the Penny](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny) tracker for December 31, 2025 is less than \\$38,500,000,000,000.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source does not report that specific date, then the resolution will be based on the amount corresponding with the first date after it.", "post_id": 40522, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761490582.12879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761490582.12879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8512500000000001, 0.14875 ], "means": [ 0.2895140025159767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 4.0, 4.0, 2.0, 2.0, 17.0, 1.0, 3.0, 4.0, 0.0, 12.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Economic Times (India) October 18, 2025: [U.S. public debt hits record \\$37.9 trillion, rising \\$25 billion daily as fiscal crisis deepens — is tariff policy enough as debt-to-GDP climbs 124%?](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/u-s-public-debt-hits-record-37-9-trillion-rising-25-billion-daily-as-fiscal-crisis-deepens-is-tariff-policy-enough-as-debt-to-gdp-climbs-124/articleshow/124670871.cms?from=mdr)\n>  \n> The **United States national debt** has reached a record **\\$37.8 trillion**, a level never seen before in the country’s history. This rapid rise has raised serious concerns among economists, policymakers, and everyday Americans alike.\n>  \n> In the past month alone, the debt has grown by **\\$400 billion**, which translates to roughly **\\$25 billion per day**. This staggering pace highlights the scale of the fiscal challenges the country is facing.\n>  \n> Since the **debt ceiling was raised in July**, the federal debt has jumped by **\\$1.7 trillion**, showing that the government continues to borrow heavily to cover expenses. At this rate, experts warn that the total debt could reach **\\$40 trillion as soon as next year**.\n\nHistorically, the US national debt has been as follows:\n\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1JEjN&width=670&height=475\"></iframe>\n\n*This is a Metaculus Learning Academy question, where you're heavily encouraged to post your rationale in the comments section and get (and give) constructive feedback.*\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40435,\"question_id\":40005}}`" }, { "id": 40521, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-will-doj-indict-christopher-krebs-or-miles-taylor-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:54.864340Z", "published_at": "2025-10-31T18:40:37Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:43:58.425126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:55.104085Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "open_time": "2025-10-31T18:40:37Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40082, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 5.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:54.864757Z", "open_time": "2025-10-31T18:40:37Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T03:03:24Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:43:58.063716Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n> \n> This question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37348,\"question_id\":36710,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348). If the community prediction on 2025-11-08 03:03:24 is higher than 5.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40521, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761940136.288627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761940136.288627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.195 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2896310763888888 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.790023809753464, "peer_score": 5.1100309955421785, "coverage": 0.9679745316505433, "relative_legacy_score": -0.005297406162824576, "weighted_coverage": 0.9679745316505433, "spot_peer_score": 6.214148932321604, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 51.790023809753464, "peer_archived_score": 5.1100309955421785, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.005297406162824576, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.214148932321604, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/37348\n- Original question title: Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 5.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n> \n> It will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n> \n> This question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal background: \n> On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":37348,\"question_id\":36710,\"last_cp\":0.05}}`" }, { "id": 40517, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-30?", "short_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "url_title": "GPC's close price rises?", "slug": "gpcs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.902719Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T04:27:16Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:00.335706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:53.147084Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T04:27:16Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40078, "title": "Will GPC's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-30?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.903127Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T04:27:16Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:37:17Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:43:59.808019Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:57:16Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Genuine Parts Company is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:22) is 130.93. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of GPC. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-30, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is GPC. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:22) is 130.93. You can find more information about Genuine Parts Company at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GPC\n\nGenuine Parts Company distributes automotive and industrial replacement parts. It operates in two segments, Automotive Parts Group and Industrial Parts Group. The company distributes automotive parts, accessories and solutions and replacement parts for hybrid and electric vehicles, trucks, SUVs, buses, motorcycles, farm equipment, and heavy duty equipment; and equipment parts and technologies. It also offers automotive parts, including brakes, batteries, filters, engine components, tools, accessories, and fluids; custom services, such as paint mixing, hydraulic hose assembly, battery testing, and key cutting; and accessories, tools, and equipment for servicing heavy duty and diesel vehicles, as well as operates service and mechanical repair centers for heavy vehicles. In addition, the company operates independent repair shops and auto care centers under the NAPA brand; and NAPA online, an online platform to browse, purchase, and have automotive products, as well as provides DIY workshops and training sessions to customers. Further, it provides abrasives, adhesives, sealants and tape, bearings, chemicals, cutting tools, electrical, facility maintenance, hose and fittings, hydraulics, janitorial, mechanical power transmission, pneumatics, process pumps and equipment, safety, seals and gaskets, tools and testing instruments, as well as inventory management, asset repair and tracking, vendor managed inventory, radio frequency identification asset management, gearbox and fluid power assembly and repair, process pump assembly and repair, drive shaft repair, electrical panel assembly and repair, and hose and gasket manufacture and assembly services. The company was incorporated in 1928 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"GPC\"}}`" }, { "id": 40516, "title": "Will NOW's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-30?", "short_title": "NOW's close price rises?", "url_title": "NOW's close price rises?", "slug": "nows-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.439265Z", "published_at": "2025-10-30T01:20:07Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:00.987782Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.704474Z", "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T02:50:07Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T02:50:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T04:24:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T04:24:38Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T01:20:07Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40077, "title": "Will NOW's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-30?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:52.439711Z", "open_time": "2025-10-30T01:20:07Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-30T02:50:07Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-30T02:50:07Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T04:24:38Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T04:24:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:00.576212Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T02:50:07Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-30T02:50:07Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ServiceNow, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is NOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:19) is 930.17. You can find more information about ServiceNow, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW\n\nServiceNow, Inc. provides cloud-based solution for digital workflows in the North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Now platform, an AI platform for digital transformation machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, analytics, and low-code/no-code development tools. It also provides asset management, integrated risk management, IT service management, Operational Technology management, Security Operations, strategic portfolio management, IT operations management products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. In addition, the company offers human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; app engine product; automation engine; platform privacy and security product; and source-to-pay operations. Further, ServiceNow, Inc. develops and operates a mobile-enabled manufacturing application. It serves government, financial services, healthcare and life science, manufacturing, Public Sector, retail, IT services, technology, and Telecom sectors through service providers and resale partners. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. ServiceNow, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NOW\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of NOW. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-30, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is NOW. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:19) is 930.17. You can find more information about ServiceNow, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NOW\n\nServiceNow, Inc. provides cloud-based solution for digital workflows in the North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, and internationally. The company operates the Now platform, an AI platform for digital transformation machine learning, robotic process automation, process mining, analytics, and low-code/no-code development tools. It also provides asset management, integrated risk management, IT service management, Operational Technology management, Security Operations, strategic portfolio management, IT operations management products; customer service management product; and field service management applications. In addition, the company offers human resources, legal, and workplace service delivery products; app engine product; automation engine; platform privacy and security product; and source-to-pay operations. Further, ServiceNow, Inc. develops and operates a mobile-enabled manufacturing application. It serves government, financial services, healthcare and life science, manufacturing, Public Sector, retail, IT services, technology, and Telecom sectors through service providers and resale partners. The company was formerly known as Service-now.com and changed its name to ServiceNow, Inc. in May 2012. ServiceNow, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"NOW\"}}`" }, { "id": 40504, "title": "Will PGR's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "PGR's close price rises?", "url_title": "PGR's close price rises?", "slug": "pgrs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:46.866239Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T15:23:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:09.864659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:47.103198Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T16:53:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T16:53:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:33:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:33:21Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T15:23:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40065, "title": "Will PGR's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:46.866637Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T15:23:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T16:53:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T16:53:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:33:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T04:33:21Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:09.317270Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T16:53:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T16:53:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Progressive Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PGR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:21) is 219.09. You can find more information about The Progressive Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGR\n\nThe Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. The company writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. It also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, the company offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provide related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PGR\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of PGR. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40504, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761670177.286896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.548 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761670177.286896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.548 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4802802835051546 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 4.0, 4.0, 11.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -9.594908054387163, "peer_score": -0.922539793829672, "coverage": 0.9788163820460991, "relative_legacy_score": -0.10060547516186137, "weighted_coverage": 0.9788163820460991, "spot_peer_score": -0.9617413803017986, "spot_baseline_score": -8.926733809708741, "baseline_archived_score": -9.594908054387163, "peer_archived_score": -0.922539793829672, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.10060547516186137, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.9617413803017986, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -8.926733809708741 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Progressive Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is PGR. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:21) is 219.09. You can find more information about The Progressive Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/PGR\n\nThe Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. The company writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. It also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, the company offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provide related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"PGR\"}}`" }, { "id": 40502, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PEPFAR program terminated before January 1, 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PEPFAR program terminated before January 1, 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-pepfar-program-terminated-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:45.952896Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T13:12:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:10.722987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:46.225580Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:42:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:42:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:11:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:11:27Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T13:12:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40063, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 20.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:45.953402Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T13:12:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T14:42:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T14:42:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:11:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:11:27Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:10.124685Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:42:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:42:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481\n- Original question title: Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief ([PEPFAR](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/)) ceases to exist before January 1, 2026. This can come about through any of the following mechanisms:\n> \n> * the initiative being terminated.\n> * the initiative and/or its functions merging with or being consolidated into another program or agency, with PEPFAR no longer continuing to operate as a distinct organization.  \n> * the program having its public funding eliminated by Congress.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Because PEPFAR was created by law, an enacted law that satisfies one of the above requirements would resolve the question as **Yes** immediately. In the event a presidential action would satisfy the above, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the action has taken effect for 60 consecutive days without being stayed, blocked, or otherwise halted by a federal court. In the event a presidential action is temporarily blocked by a court but later goes into effect for 60 days the question will resolve as **Yes**. The 60 day period must complete before January 1, 2026.\n> * Partial termination or partial elimination of funding is not sufficient.\n> * PEPFAR being renamed will not count, as long as the core mission of funding global AIDS/HIV prevention and treatment remains intact within the same program.\n\nOriginal background: \n> PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) is a global health program provided by the United States government that specifically targets HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment [outside of](https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar) the US. Since Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, the program, which is run [under the auspices of](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/) the US State Department, [has spent](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) a total of \\$120 billion and has grown from \\$1.9 billion in its inaugural year to \\$6.5 billion in FY 2024 and [reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11583809/) saving over 25 million lives. \n> \n> On January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n> \n> After a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation. \n> \n> According to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-outlook-for-pepfar-in-2025-and-beyond/), the following are the most important factors to watch when assessing the future of PEPFAR:\n> \n> 1. Concerns among anti-abortion members of Congress that PEPFAR has funded abortions in countries such as Mozambique, which has fueled speculation that PEPFAR may not have funding reauthorization and/or potentially could face budget cuts.\n> 2. Strong opposition to PEPFAR from the Trump Administration, including the loss of thousands of aid worker jobs since Trump's inauguration.\n> 3. The potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was implementing many of PEPFAR's programs. \n> 4. Revival of the Mexico City policy by the Trump Administration, which requires no direct or indirect funding of abortions by non-governmental organizations and [includes PEPFAR](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-mexico-city-policy-an-explainer/) in its new policy. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35481,\"question_id\":34948,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 00:11:27 is higher than 20.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40502, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761661596.318075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.386 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761661596.318075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.386 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6875, 0.3125 ], "means": [ 0.3368095238095237 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 16.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.528353268118735, "peer_score": 7.946635352298658, "coverage": 0.95646854073913, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04044712127178482, "weighted_coverage": 0.95646854073913, "spot_peer_score": 7.042799733822375, "spot_baseline_score": 45.94316186372972, "baseline_archived_score": 45.528353268118735, "peer_archived_score": 7.946635352298658, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04044712127178482, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.042799733822375, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.94316186372972 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35481\n- Original question title: Will the PEPFAR program cease to exist before January 1, 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 20.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question resolves as **Yes** if the United States President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief ([PEPFAR](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/)) ceases to exist before January 1, 2026. This can come about through any of the following mechanisms:\n> \n> * the initiative being terminated.\n> * the initiative and/or its functions merging with or being consolidated into another program or agency, with PEPFAR no longer continuing to operate as a distinct organization.  \n> * the program having its public funding eliminated by Congress.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * Because PEPFAR was created by law, an enacted law that satisfies one of the above requirements would resolve the question as **Yes** immediately. In the event a presidential action would satisfy the above, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the action has taken effect for 60 consecutive days without being stayed, blocked, or otherwise halted by a federal court. In the event a presidential action is temporarily blocked by a court but later goes into effect for 60 days the question will resolve as **Yes**. The 60 day period must complete before January 1, 2026.\n> * Partial termination or partial elimination of funding is not sufficient.\n> * PEPFAR being renamed will not count, as long as the core mission of funding global AIDS/HIV prevention and treatment remains intact within the same program.\n\nOriginal background: \n> PEPFAR (President's Emergency Plan For AIDS Relief) is a global health program provided by the United States government that specifically targets HIV/AIDS prevention and treatment [outside of](https://www.state.gov/where-we-work-pepfar) the US. Since Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, the program, which is run [under the auspices of](https://www.state.gov/pepfar/) the US State Department, [has spent](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/fact-sheet/the-u-s-presidents-emergency-plan-for-aids-relief-pepfar/) a total of \\$120 billion and has grown from \\$1.9 billion in its inaugural year to \\$6.5 billion in FY 2024 and [reports](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11583809/) saving over 25 million lives. \n> \n> On January 20, 2025, President Donald J. Trump [signed](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/reevaluating-and-realigning-united-states-foreign-aid/) an executive order pausing for 90 days new foreign aid disbursements [including for the PEPFAR program](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-status-of-president-trumps-pause-of-foreign-aid-and-implications-for-pepfar-and-other-global-health-programs/), pending a review of all foreign assistance programs. On February 13, 2025, federal judge Amir Ali [ordered](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/judge-orders-trump-administration-reinstate-foreign-aid-funding-now-rcna192168) the Trump Administration to resume foreign aid programs in place before Trump's inauguration. On February 20, 2025, Judge Ali [ruled](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/trump-administration-not-complying-foreign-aid-amir-ali-rcna193092) that the Trump Administration was not fully in compliance with the order.\n> \n> After a long bipartisan consensus about the program's usefulness, in recent years PEPFAR has faced [increased opposition](https://rollcall.com/2023/09/21/pepfar-reauthorization-debate-highlights-splits-in-gop/) in the US Congress, particularly from members of the Republican Party. In 2024 PEPFAR [received](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/pepfars-short-term-reauthorization-sets-an-uncertain-course-for-its-long-term-future/) temporary reauthorization from Congress amid the increasing opposition. See for example [this report](https://www.heritage.org/budget-and-spending/report/reassessing-americas-30-billion-global-aids-relief-program) from the Heritage Foundation. \n> \n> According to the [Kaiser Family Foundation](https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/the-outlook-for-pepfar-in-2025-and-beyond/), the following are the most important factors to watch when assessing the future of PEPFAR:\n> \n> 1. Concerns among anti-abortion members of Congress that PEPFAR has funded abortions in countries such as Mozambique, which has fueled speculation that PEPFAR may not have funding reauthorization and/or potentially could face budget cuts.\n> 2. Strong opposition to PEPFAR from the Trump Administration, including the loss of thousands of aid worker jobs since Trump's inauguration.\n> 3. The potential dismantling of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which was implementing many of PEPFAR's programs. \n> 4. Revival of the Mexico City policy by the Trump Administration, which requires no direct or indirect funding of abortions by non-governmental organizations and [includes PEPFAR](https://www.kff.org/global-health-policy/issue-brief/the-mexico-city-policy-an-explainer/) in its new policy. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35481,\"question_id\":34948,\"last_cp\":0.2}}`" }, { "id": 40501, "title": "Will TKO's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "TKO's close price rises?", "url_title": "TKO's close price rises?", "slug": "tkos-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:45.499639Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T12:57:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:11.493125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:45.741860Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:27:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:27:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T02:28:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T02:28:34Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T12:57:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40062, "title": "Will TKO's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:45.500075Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T12:57:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T14:27:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T14:27:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T02:28:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T02:28:34Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:10.973077Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:27:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T14:27:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is TKO. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:17) is 186.85. You can find more information about TKO Group Holdings, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TKO\n\nTKO Group Holdings, Inc. operates as a sports and entertainment company. The company owns and manages sports and entertainment intellectual property; produces and licenses live events, programing, and long-form and short-form content, reality series, and other filmed entertainment on digital and linear channels and via pay-per-view; and offers UFC FIGHT PASS, a direct-to-consumer streaming product that provides access to live and video-on-demand events, as well as original content. It is also involved in the merchandising of video games, apparel, equipment, trading cards, memorabilia, digital goods, and toys. 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It's ticker is DRI. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:12) is 184.82. You can find more information about Darden Restaurants, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DRI\n\nDarden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada. The company operates under Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Yard House, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Bahama Breeze, The Capital Burger, Darden and Darden Restaurants brand names. Darden Restaurants, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is based in Orlando, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"DRI\"}}`" }, { "id": 40497, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PSOE ahead of PP in polls at the end of 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"PSOE ahead of PP in polls at the end of 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-psoe-ahead-of-pp-in-polls-at-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:43.173524Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T10:05:40Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:13.603123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:43.427872Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T11:35:40Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T11:35:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T09:11:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T09:11:34Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T10:05:40Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40058, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 6.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:43.173934Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T10:05:40Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T11:35:40Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T11:35:40Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T09:11:34Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T09:11:34Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:13.131769Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T11:35:40Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T11:35:40Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262\n- Original question title: Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the graph of the average of polls for the General Elections in Spain, maintained by [ <u>Politico Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PSOE is ahead of the PP in the average voting intention for December 31, 2025. It will be resolved as **No** if the PP is ahead of the PSOE or if they are tied.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • Any changes to Politico’s methodology will not affect the resolution of the question.\n> \n> • If Politico has not published a value for December 31, 2025 by January 7, 2025, this question will be resolved based on the most recent value for 2025, as long as it is after November 30, 2025. If no such value is published by December 31, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35262,\"question_id\":34746,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262). If the community prediction on 2025-11-05 09:11:34 is higher than 6.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40497, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761648910.758478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4675 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761648910.758478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4675 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.35867261904761905 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.10516488200068, "peer_score": 14.670845750968295, "coverage": 0.956097167774483, "relative_legacy_score": 0.1360274578259781, "weighted_coverage": 0.956097167774483, "spot_peer_score": 14.00243895142756, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 46.10516488200068, "peer_archived_score": 14.670845750968295, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.1360274578259781, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.00243895142756, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35262\n- Original question title: Will the PSOE finish 2025 ahead of the PP in the polls average?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 6.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the graph of the average of polls for the General Elections in Spain, maintained by [ <u>Politico Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PSOE is ahead of the PP in the average voting intention for December 31, 2025. It will be resolved as **No** if the PP is ahead of the PSOE or if they are tied.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • Any changes to Politico’s methodology will not affect the resolution of the question.\n> \n> • If Politico has not published a value for December 31, 2025 by January 7, 2025, this question will be resolved based on the most recent value for 2025, as long as it is after November 30, 2025. If no such value is published by December 31, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Popular Party (PP) are the two main political parties in Spain. In the general election in July 2023, the PP won with 33.1% of the vote, while the PSOE received 31.7%. Despite coming in second place, the PSOE managed to form a government through coalition agreements. Currently, according to [ <u>Politico's Poll of Polls</u> ](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/spain/), the PP leads with 34% while the PSOE stands at 28%. There are no general elections scheduled for 2025, so these numbers could fluctuate significantly if an election is called.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35262,\"question_id\":34746,\"last_cp\":0.06}}`" }, { "id": 40496, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 60.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-vox-27-youth-vote-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.693900Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T09:18:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:14.324071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.958965Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:18:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40057, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 60.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.694403Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:18:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:13.839197Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263\n- Original question title: Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 60.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the latest 2025 survey conducted by the company 40dB., the direct voting intention for Vox among young people aged 18 to 24 is greater than 27%. It will be answered as **No** if it is 27% or less.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • The relevant survey will probably be published by [ <u>El País</u> ](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n> \n> • Voting intention refers specifically to the 18-24 age group and to direct voting intention data, as presented in the 40dB survey. You can consult [ <u>this example</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). If that range is not available, another nearby range will be used to represent the youth vote.\n> \n> • If the last 2025 40dB survey is published before October 1, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Vox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n> \n> This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747,\"last_cp\":0.6}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263). If the community prediction on 2025-11-06 20:11:56 is higher than 60.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40496, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761647679.124381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.355 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.489 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761647679.124381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.355 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.489 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44787276785714286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.594819065993335, "peer_score": 4.143627463751361, "coverage": 0.95502880498215, "relative_legacy_score": 0.004985359439947647, "weighted_coverage": 0.95502880498215, "spot_peer_score": 3.468609403784947, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.594819065993335, "peer_archived_score": 4.143627463751361, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.004985359439947647, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.468609403784947, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263\n- Original question title: Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 60.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the latest 2025 survey conducted by the company 40dB., the direct voting intention for Vox among young people aged 18 to 24 is greater than 27%. It will be answered as **No** if it is 27% or less.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • The relevant survey will probably be published by [ <u>El País</u> ](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n> \n> • Voting intention refers specifically to the 18-24 age group and to direct voting intention data, as presented in the 40dB survey. You can consult [ <u>this example</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). If that range is not available, another nearby range will be used to represent the youth vote.\n> \n> • If the last 2025 40dB survey is published before October 1, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Vox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n> \n> This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747,\"last_cp\":0.6}}`" }, { "id": 40495, "title": "Will ACGL's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "ACGL's close price rises?", "url_title": "ACGL's close price rises?", "slug": "acgls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.236908Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T09:00:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:14.984172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.486501Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:00:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40056, "title": "Will ACGL's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.237351Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:00:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:14.544065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ACGL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:27) is 87.15. You can find more information about Arch Capital Group Ltd. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL\n\nArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; casualty; marine and aviation; excess and surplus casualty; construction and national accounts; alternative market risks and employer's liability; travel, accident, and health; contract and commercial surety coverage; and other insurance products, as well as Lloyd's syndicates; programs; and warranty and lenders solutions. 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Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ACGL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ACGL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. 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It's ticker is ACGL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:27) is 87.15. You can find more information about Arch Capital Group Ltd. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL\n\nArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; casualty; marine and aviation; excess and surplus casualty; construction and national accounts; alternative market risks and employer's liability; travel, accident, and health; contract and commercial surety coverage; and other insurance products, as well as Lloyd's syndicates; programs; and warranty and lenders solutions. 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It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:28) is 298.34. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. The company also provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX Management Suite; NGINX Ingress Controller; NGINX App Protect; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. In addition, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. F5, Inc. sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FFIV. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. 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It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:28) is 298.34. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. The company also provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX Management Suite; NGINX Ingress Controller; NGINX App Protect; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. In addition, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. F5, Inc. sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`" } ] }
