Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6463, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 40688, "title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer between two Starship spacecraft in Earth orbit by 2025-12-31?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer betw", "url_title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer betw", "slug": "will-spacex-or-nasa-publicly-confirm-completion-of-a-ship-to-ship-cryogenic-propellant-transfer-betw", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.574224Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T13:51:46Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:36.700398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.960099Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:51:46Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40284, "title": "Will SpaceX or NASA publicly confirm completion of a ship-to-ship cryogenic propellant transfer between two Starship spacecraft in Earth orbit by 2025-12-31?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.574693Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:51:46Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:33.759185Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T15:21:46Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- What Starship is and what it uses for propellant: SpaceX’s Starship is a two‑stage, fully reusable super heavy‑lift launch system; the upper stage is also called Starship (the spacecraft). It is powered by Raptor engines burning liquid methane (fuel) and liquid oxygen (oxidizer), commonly referred to as methalox. Liquid oxygen (LOX) is a cryogenic oxidizer widely used in rocketry.\n- Why in‑space transfer matters: Starship’s lunar architecture requires transferring cryogenic propellant in orbit to enable missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). NASA and SpaceX have laid out plans for a ship‑to‑ship refueling demonstration in LEO as part of the Human Landing System (HLS) work.\n- Completed internal (not ship‑to‑ship) transfer in 2024: During Starship’s third integrated flight test (IFT‑3) on 2024‑03‑14, NASA stated: “The propellant transfer demonstration operations were completed,” describing the transfer of cryogenic propellant between internal tanks during the spacecraft’s coast phase. This was tank‑to‑tank within a single Starship vehicle, not between two vehicles.\n- Forward‑looking plans toward ship‑to‑ship: NASA officials and reporting indicate a next milestone is a ship‑to‑ship transfer demo in LEO, involving launching a target Starship to orbit, followed weeks later by a chaser Starship that docks and transfers propellant; NASA has reviewed plans for this campaign. SpaceNews reported in April 2024 that NASA’s deputy associate administrator described the internal transfer at IFT‑3 as successful and outlined the plan for a two‑Starship docking and transfer mission targeted for 2025. NASA HLS materials also describe a long‑duration cryogenic propellant transfer test between Starships in LEO to reduce risk for orbital fluid management.\n- Definitions relevant to orbit: Low Earth orbit (LEO) is generally the region below 2,000 km altitude; an orbit with period ≤128 minutes and eccentricity <0.25 is considered LEO. This is the typical regime for early Starship orbital operations and where NASA plans the propellant transfer demonstration.\n\nKey definitions used in this question (with sources):\n- Starship (spacecraft): the upper‑stage vehicle of SpaceX’s Starship launch system (distinct from the Super Heavy booster).\n- Cryogenic propellant: for the purposes of this question, liquid oxygen (LOX) or liquid methane used by Starship’s Raptor engines.\n- Low Earth orbit (LEO): an Earth orbit with period ≤128 minutes (≥11.25 orbits/day) and eccentricity <0.25, generally below 2,000 km altitude.\n\nContext for forecasters: As of this date, an internal tank‑to‑tank transfer in orbit has been performed (operations completed) but a ship‑to‑ship in‑orbit transfer has not yet been publicly confirmed as completed. NASA and SpaceX materials describe the planned ship‑to‑ship demonstration architecture in LEO and indicate intent to conduct such a mission, with 2025 discussed in public remarks, but execution remains uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"8b6d09c38ce91d27\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window and event eligibility\n- Eligible event window: Ship‑to‑ship transfer must occur between 2024‑10‑15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC.\n- Resolution window: This question resolves immediately upon qualifying public confirmation; otherwise it resolves at 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nWhat counts as “Yes”\nResolve Yes if, by 2025‑12‑31 23:59:59 UTC, an eligible official source (see Sources) publishes a statement that explicitly confirms that a ship‑to‑ship cryogenic propellant transfer between two distinct Starship spacecraft was completed while both vehicles were in Earth orbit that meets the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) definition (period ≤128 minutes and eccentricity <0.25; generally below 2,000 km altitude).\n\nDefinitions and clarifications (all must be satisfied):\n- Ship‑to‑ship: The transfer is between two physically separate Starship spacecraft (upper stages), not within a single vehicle. Transfers involving the Super Heavy booster do not count.\n- Cryogenic propellant: The transferred fluid must be liquid oxygen (LOX) or liquid methane as used by Starship’s propulsion system. Transfers of other substances (e.g., water) do not count.\n- On‑orbit in LEO: Both vehicles must be in a closed Earth orbit within LEO as defined above at the time of transfer. Suborbital coast phases do not count.\n- Completed: The official source must use language indicating completion of the transfer operations for the ship‑to‑ship demonstration (e.g., “completed,” “was completed,” or “operations were completed”), analogous to NASA’s phrasing for the IFT‑3 internal transfer, but specifically in the context of a ship‑to‑ship transfer. Statements that the transfer was only “attempted,” “initiated,” “planned,” or “partial” do not count.\n\nWhat does NOT count\n- Internal (tank‑to‑tank) transfers within a single Starship vehicle.\n- Transfers not involving two Starship spacecraft (e.g., including the Super Heavy booster).\n- Transfers of non‑cryogenic fluids or of cryogenic fluids other than LOX or liquid methane.\n- Transfers that occur outside of LEO or on suborbital trajectories.\n\nSources acceptable for resolution\n- NASA: An official NASA.gov press release, blog/news update, or HLS program page that explicitly states the ship‑to‑ship cryogenic propellant transfer was completed.\n- SpaceX: An official update on SpaceX.com (e.g., spacex.com/updates or a Starship launch page) that explicitly states the ship‑to‑ship cryogenic propellant transfer was completed.\n- Social media caveat: Posts on verified NASA or SpaceX social media accounts are acceptable only if they are accompanied by, or directly link to, an official NASA.gov or SpaceX.com page with the explicit confirmation.\n- Evidence preservation: The qualifying page must be publicly accessible at resolution time; an archived snapshot (e.g., via the Internet Archive) captured on or before 2025‑12‑31 is acceptable as evidence if the live page changes.\n\nAdjudication notes\n- If multiple sources disagree, NASA.gov statements take precedence over SpaceX.com.\n- If no qualifying public confirmation is available by the deadline, resolve No, even if third‑party media report that a transfer occurred.\n\nReferences supporting status quo and definitions\n- NASA’s statement that an in‑orbit internal tank‑to‑tank propellant transfer’s “operations were completed” during IFT‑3 (2024‑03‑14), clarifying what “completed” language looks like and that this prior event was not ship‑to‑ship.\n- SpaceNews reporting (April 2024) of NASA’s deputy associate administrator describing the internal transfer as successful and outlining a plan for a 2025 two‑Starship docking and propellant transfer mission.\n- NASA HLS materials describing a long‑duration LEO ship‑to‑ship cryogenic propellant transfer test between Starships.\n- Definitions: Starship system ; liquid rocket propellants and methalox/cryogenic context ; LOX definition ; LEO definition.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40688, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- What Starship is and what it uses for propellant: SpaceX’s Starship is a two‑stage, fully reusable super heavy‑lift launch system; the upper stage is also called Starship (the spacecraft). It is powered by Raptor engines burning liquid methane (fuel) and liquid oxygen (oxidizer), commonly referred to as methalox. Liquid oxygen (LOX) is a cryogenic oxidizer widely used in rocketry.\n- Why in‑space transfer matters: Starship’s lunar architecture requires transferring cryogenic propellant in orbit to enable missions beyond low Earth orbit (LEO). NASA and SpaceX have laid out plans for a ship‑to‑ship refueling demonstration in LEO as part of the Human Landing System (HLS) work.\n- Completed internal (not ship‑to‑ship) transfer in 2024: During Starship’s third integrated flight test (IFT‑3) on 2024‑03‑14, NASA stated: “The propellant transfer demonstration operations were completed,” describing the transfer of cryogenic propellant between internal tanks during the spacecraft’s coast phase. This was tank‑to‑tank within a single Starship vehicle, not between two vehicles.\n- Forward‑looking plans toward ship‑to‑ship: NASA officials and reporting indicate a next milestone is a ship‑to‑ship transfer demo in LEO, involving launching a target Starship to orbit, followed weeks later by a chaser Starship that docks and transfers propellant; NASA has reviewed plans for this campaign. SpaceNews reported in April 2024 that NASA’s deputy associate administrator described the internal transfer at IFT‑3 as successful and outlined the plan for a two‑Starship docking and transfer mission targeted for 2025. NASA HLS materials also describe a long‑duration cryogenic propellant transfer test between Starships in LEO to reduce risk for orbital fluid management.\n- Definitions relevant to orbit: Low Earth orbit (LEO) is generally the region below 2,000 km altitude; an orbit with period ≤128 minutes and eccentricity <0.25 is considered LEO. This is the typical regime for early Starship orbital operations and where NASA plans the propellant transfer demonstration.\n\nKey definitions used in this question (with sources):\n- Starship (spacecraft): the upper‑stage vehicle of SpaceX’s Starship launch system (distinct from the Super Heavy booster).\n- Cryogenic propellant: for the purposes of this question, liquid oxygen (LOX) or liquid methane used by Starship’s Raptor engines.\n- Low Earth orbit (LEO): an Earth orbit with period ≤128 minutes (≥11.25 orbits/day) and eccentricity <0.25, generally below 2,000 km altitude.\n\nContext for forecasters: As of this date, an internal tank‑to‑tank transfer in orbit has been performed (operations completed) but a ship‑to‑ship in‑orbit transfer has not yet been publicly confirmed as completed. NASA and SpaceX materials describe the planned ship‑to‑ship demonstration architecture in LEO and indicate intent to conduct such a mission, with 2025 discussed in public remarks, but execution remains uncertain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"8b6d09c38ce91d27\"}}`" }, { "id": 40687, "title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (ART)?", "short_title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement", "url_title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement", "slug": "argentina-imf-eff-will-the-imf-executive-board-complete-the-second-review-and-enable-a-disbursement", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.129362Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T13:09:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T00:59:46.752515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.368953Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:09:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40283, "title": "Argentina IMF EFF: Will the IMF Executive Board complete the second review and enable a disbursement between Oct 15 and Dec 31, 2025 (ART)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:28.129773Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T13:09:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:43.864179Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:39:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Program approval and size: On April 11, 2025, the IMF Executive Board approved a 48‑month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling about US$20 billion (SDR 15.267 billion).\n- First review completed and disbursement: On July 31, 2025, the IMF Executive Board completed the first review of Argentina’s EFF arrangement, “enabling an immediate disbursement of SDR 1.529 billion (about US$2 billion).” This press release exemplifies the standard IMF phrasing used when a review is completed and a disbursement is enabled.\n- Forward-looking constraints on review timing: Reporting on August 1, 2025 indicated that the IMF lowered Argentina’s net international reserve (NIR) accumulation targets through 2026 and removed a review that had been due before the country’s October legislative elections, with the next review due after those elections.\n- What the EFF is and how reviews/disbursements work: The EFF supports countries facing medium‑term balance‑of‑payments problems due to structural weaknesses. Access to IMF resources is phased, and disbursements are conditional on policy performance assessed at periodic reviews.\n\nKey definitions and references for forecasters:\n- Extended Fund Facility (EFF): An IMF lending facility supporting multi‑year structural reform programs; periodic reviews assess performance and, when completed by the Executive Board, typically “enable” access to the next disbursement tranche.\n- “Second review” (in this question): The second periodic program review under Argentina’s 48‑month EFF arrangement approved April 11, 2025.\n- IMF Executive Board: The decision‑making body that formally completes reviews under IMF arrangements; see the Board phrasing and role as used in the July 31, 2025 Argentina press release (“Executive Board completed the first review … enabling … disbursement”).\n- Argentina Time (ART): The official time in Argentina is UTC−03:00 year‑round (no daylight saving time). Buenos Aires observes ART.\n\nPrimary sources to monitor:\n- IMF News/Press Releases related to Argentina (example press release format: PR25272 for the first review) and IMF Staff Country Reports pages on imf.org. A qualifying IMF publication will explicitly state that the Executive Board completed the second review and that this completion enabled/approved a (next) disbursement.\n- For general program context: the April 11, 2025 approval release and subsequent reporting on review timing and target adjustments.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"60050d4056466a0e\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This is a binary question. It will resolve based on official IMF publications as follows:\n\nEvent window and time zone:\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00 ART (UTC−03:00).\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59 ART (UTC−03:00).\n- ART is Argentina Time, which is UTC−03:00 year‑round.\n\nYES resolution:\n- Resolve YES if, within the event window, there exists at least one official IMF publication on imf.org (e.g., a press release, Executive Board decision/statement, or the Staff Report page for the relevant review) that explicitly states both of the following for Argentina under the current 48‑month EFF arrangement approved on April 11, 2025 :\n 1) “The Executive Board completed the second review” (or equivalent standard IMF phrasing such as “The IMF Executive Board completed today the second review …”).\n 2) The completion “enabled” or “approved” a disbursement (typical phrasing includes “enabling an immediate disbursement of …” or “approving a disbursement of …”). The IMF’s standard language for completion/enabling a disbursement is exemplified in the July 31, 2025 press release on the first review.\n\nNO resolution:\n- Resolve NO if no such qualifying IMF publication dated within the event window can be found by the resolution deadline.\n\nSource and dating rules:\n- The authoritative source is the IMF website (imf.org) The publication must be publicly accessible on imf.org and clearly associated with Argentina’s EFF.\n- For the purposes of determining whether the publication falls within the event window, use the publication date displayed on the IMF page (as shown on the press release or report page). If both an Executive Board meeting date and a separate publication date are listed, the publication date controls for this question’s timing.\n\nTerm clarifications:\n- “Second review” refers to the second periodic review under Argentina’s 48‑month EFF arrangement approved on April 11, 2025.\n- “Enable/approve a disbursement” means the IMF text explicitly states that a disbursement is made available as a consequence of completing the second review, using standard IMF phrasing such as “enabling an immediate disbursement of …” or “approving a disbursement of …”.\n\nExamples (illustrative):\n- A press release that states, “The IMF Executive Board completed the second review of the Extended Arrangement under the EFF for Argentina, enabling an immediate disbursement of SDR X” within the window would resolve YES.\n- A staff report published within the window whose cover page or press release states the Board “completed the second review … enabling a disbursement” would resolve YES.\n- If the Board completes the review but the IMF publication is dated outside the window, resolve NO under this question’s timing rule.\n\nFallback if imf.org is inaccessible at resolution time:\n- If the IMF website is inaccessible for more than 24 consecutive hours at the resolution deadline, use reports from at least two of the following wire services: Reuters, Associated Press, or AFP, that clearly state the IMF Executive Board completed Argentina’s second EFF review and enabled/approved a disbursement, with at least one citing or linking to the IMF release. For timing, use the earliest datestamp among those reports; it must fall within the event window.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40687, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Program approval and size: On April 11, 2025, the IMF Executive Board approved a 48‑month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Argentina totaling about US$20 billion (SDR 15.267 billion).\n- First review completed and disbursement: On July 31, 2025, the IMF Executive Board completed the first review of Argentina’s EFF arrangement, “enabling an immediate disbursement of SDR 1.529 billion (about US$2 billion).” This press release exemplifies the standard IMF phrasing used when a review is completed and a disbursement is enabled.\n- Forward-looking constraints on review timing: Reporting on August 1, 2025 indicated that the IMF lowered Argentina’s net international reserve (NIR) accumulation targets through 2026 and removed a review that had been due before the country’s October legislative elections, with the next review due after those elections.\n- What the EFF is and how reviews/disbursements work: The EFF supports countries facing medium‑term balance‑of‑payments problems due to structural weaknesses. Access to IMF resources is phased, and disbursements are conditional on policy performance assessed at periodic reviews.\n\nKey definitions and references for forecasters:\n- Extended Fund Facility (EFF): An IMF lending facility supporting multi‑year structural reform programs; periodic reviews assess performance and, when completed by the Executive Board, typically “enable” access to the next disbursement tranche.\n- “Second review” (in this question): The second periodic program review under Argentina’s 48‑month EFF arrangement approved April 11, 2025.\n- IMF Executive Board: The decision‑making body that formally completes reviews under IMF arrangements; see the Board phrasing and role as used in the July 31, 2025 Argentina press release (“Executive Board completed the first review … enabling … disbursement”).\n- Argentina Time (ART): The official time in Argentina is UTC−03:00 year‑round (no daylight saving time). Buenos Aires observes ART.\n\nPrimary sources to monitor:\n- IMF News/Press Releases related to Argentina (example press release format: PR25272 for the first review) and IMF Staff Country Reports pages on imf.org. A qualifying IMF publication will explicitly state that the Executive Board completed the second review and that this completion enabled/approved a (next) disbursement.\n- For general program context: the April 11, 2025 approval release and subsequent reporting on review timing and target adjustments.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"60050d4056466a0e\"}}`" }, { "id": 40686, "title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCR’s cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 2024-12-08 reach at least 1,400,000?", "short_title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCR’s cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to", "url_title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCR’s cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to", "slug": "by-2025-12-31-235959-utc-will-unhcrs-cumulative-estimate-of-syrian-refugees-who-have-returned-to", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.672486Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T12:59:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:04.269819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.902887Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T12:59:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40282, "title": "By 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, will UNHCR’s cumulative estimate of Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 2024-12-08 reach at least 1,400,000?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.672945Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T12:59:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T00:59:59.991545Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T14:29:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of context as of 2025-09-30:\n- UNHCR reported that in the nine months following 2024-12-08, one million Syrians had returned to their country. UN News also attributes this nine-month return figure to UNHCR.\n- UNHCR’s Syria Operational Update indicates approximately 844,000 Syrian refugees returned from abroad between 2024-12-08 and end-August 2025 (explicitly refugees, excluding IDPs).\n- UNHCR’s Operational Data Portal for Syria references UNHCR preparations for the projected return of up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees during 2025 and hosts ongoing situation updates and profiles of returnees.\n- UNHCR published a profile of individuals returned since 2024-12-08 through 2025-02-13, estimating 279,620 Syrians had returned by that date. The profile notes figures are derived by triangulating sources inside and outside Syria, including UNHCR offices and government sources in Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.\n- Distinguish refugees from internally displaced persons (IDPs): UNHCR separately reported large numbers of IDP returnees; however, this question concerns only refugee returns (people returning from outside Syria).\n\nDefinitions and key terms:\n- Syrian refugee: A person of Syrian nationality or formerly habitual resident of Syria who sought refuge outside Syria and is counted by UNHCR as a refugee returnee to Syria. For general reference on refugee status, see the 1951 Refugee Convention framework (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee) In this question, “refugee” is operationalized as UNHCR’s category used in its public reporting of “refugee returns” to Syria.\n- Returned to Syria / refugee return: Movement of a Syrian refugee from a host country back into Syria, as captured in UNHCR’s public reporting (may include spontaneous/self-organized and UNHCR-facilitated voluntary returns). This excludes returns of internally displaced persons within Syria.\n- Cumulative estimate since 2024-12-08: The total number UNHCR reports for “Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 8 December 2024,” not a figure computed by summing subcomponents. Use the single cumulative figure UNHCR publishes (in press releases, country updates, or the Operational Data Portal).\n\nData sources UNHCR uses and publishes:\n- UNHCR press releases and news updates (e.g., the 2025-09-24 press release reporting one million returns).\n- UN News items quoting UNHCR figures.\n- UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Syria country page, where UNHCR posts return profiles and ongoing updates and planning figures.\n- UNHCR Syria Operational Updates with disaggregated returns and clarifications on refugee vs IDP figures.\n\nWhy the threshold may be uncertain:\n- As of 2025-09-24, UNHCR reported one million refugee returns since 2024-12-08. UNHCR planning references up to 1.5 million returns in 2025. The question’s 1.4 million threshold is above the current reported total and below the planning ceiling, creating plausible uncertainty over whether returns will continue at a pace sufficient to reach 1.4 million by year-end.\n\nAdditional references for clarity:\n- Refugee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee\n- Internally displaced person: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internally_displaced_person\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"a34b18e613c28a4c\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Observation window and time zone:\n- Eligible returns are those counted by UNHCR as having occurred on or after 2024-12-08 00:00:00 UTC.\n- The question resolves based on UNHCR’s latest official publication issued on or before 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolution rule:\n- Resolve Yes if UNHCR, in any official publication (UNHCR website press release/news, UNHCR Operational Data Portal Syria country content, or UNHCR Syria Operational Update) published on or before 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, explicitly reports the cumulative number of Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 2024-12-08 as equal to or greater than 1,400,000.\n- Resolve No if the latest UNHCR publication by that time reports a cumulative figure strictly less than 1,400,000, or if UNHCR does not publish an explicit cumulative figure for “refugee returns to Syria since 8 December 2024” by the resolution time.\n\nWhat counts as an eligible source:\n- Primary sources must be UNHCR publications hosted on unchr.org or UNHCR’s Operational Data Portal (data.unhcr.org) and clearly attributable to UNHCR. ReliefWeb postings of UNHCR documents are acceptable only when they reproduce an original UNHCR document verbatim and with date attribution. UN News citing UNHCR figures may be used only as a secondary confirmation when the UNHCR original is available; if the original is not accessible, UN News quoting UNHCR is acceptable with clear attribution.\n\nCounting and phrasing rules:\n- Acceptable formulations indicating the threshold is met include: a precise number ≥1,400,000; “1.4 million” or “at least/over/more than 1.4 million.”\n- Do not count formulations such as “almost/nearly/around 1.4 million” unless a precise number ≥1,400,000 is also given in the same or a later UNHCR publication by the resolution time.\n- Use the single cumulative figure UNHCR provides; do not compute totals by summing subcomponents.\n\nTie-breaker and conflicts:\n- If multiple UNHCR publications exist, use the one with the latest publication date/time on or before 2025-12-31 and referring explicitly to “since 8 December 2024.” If there is a discrepancy between UNHCR sources, prefer the most recent original UNHCR source over reprints or media summaries.\n\nExclusions:\n- Internally displaced person (IDP) returns within Syria do not count toward this total. Only refugee returns from abroad as reported by UNHCR count.\n\nVerification steps (for resolvers):\n1) Check UNHCR’s Syria country page on the Operational Data Portal for the most recent update containing the cumulative figure for “refugee returns since 8 December 2024”.\n2) Check UNHCR’s global website for any press release or Syria Operational Update with an explicit cumulative figure.\n3) If the UNHCR original is not accessible by the resolution time, verify an UN News item that quotes UNHCR’s figure.\n4) Apply the counting and phrasing rules above to resolve Yes/No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40686, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of context as of 2025-09-30:\n- UNHCR reported that in the nine months following 2024-12-08, one million Syrians had returned to their country. UN News also attributes this nine-month return figure to UNHCR.\n- UNHCR’s Syria Operational Update indicates approximately 844,000 Syrian refugees returned from abroad between 2024-12-08 and end-August 2025 (explicitly refugees, excluding IDPs).\n- UNHCR’s Operational Data Portal for Syria references UNHCR preparations for the projected return of up to 1.5 million Syrian refugees during 2025 and hosts ongoing situation updates and profiles of returnees.\n- UNHCR published a profile of individuals returned since 2024-12-08 through 2025-02-13, estimating 279,620 Syrians had returned by that date. The profile notes figures are derived by triangulating sources inside and outside Syria, including UNHCR offices and government sources in Türkiye, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Egypt.\n- Distinguish refugees from internally displaced persons (IDPs): UNHCR separately reported large numbers of IDP returnees; however, this question concerns only refugee returns (people returning from outside Syria).\n\nDefinitions and key terms:\n- Syrian refugee: A person of Syrian nationality or formerly habitual resident of Syria who sought refuge outside Syria and is counted by UNHCR as a refugee returnee to Syria. For general reference on refugee status, see the 1951 Refugee Convention framework (e.g., https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee) In this question, “refugee” is operationalized as UNHCR’s category used in its public reporting of “refugee returns” to Syria.\n- Returned to Syria / refugee return: Movement of a Syrian refugee from a host country back into Syria, as captured in UNHCR’s public reporting (may include spontaneous/self-organized and UNHCR-facilitated voluntary returns). This excludes returns of internally displaced persons within Syria.\n- Cumulative estimate since 2024-12-08: The total number UNHCR reports for “Syrian refugees who have returned to Syria since 8 December 2024,” not a figure computed by summing subcomponents. Use the single cumulative figure UNHCR publishes (in press releases, country updates, or the Operational Data Portal).\n\nData sources UNHCR uses and publishes:\n- UNHCR press releases and news updates (e.g., the 2025-09-24 press release reporting one million returns).\n- UN News items quoting UNHCR figures.\n- UNHCR Operational Data Portal – Syria country page, where UNHCR posts return profiles and ongoing updates and planning figures.\n- UNHCR Syria Operational Updates with disaggregated returns and clarifications on refugee vs IDP figures.\n\nWhy the threshold may be uncertain:\n- As of 2025-09-24, UNHCR reported one million refugee returns since 2024-12-08. UNHCR planning references up to 1.5 million returns in 2025. The question’s 1.4 million threshold is above the current reported total and below the planning ceiling, creating plausible uncertainty over whether returns will continue at a pace sufficient to reach 1.4 million by year-end.\n\nAdditional references for clarity:\n- Refugee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Refugee\n- Internally displaced person: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internally_displaced_person\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"a34b18e613c28a4c\"}}`" }, { "id": 40685, "title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include ≥40 PLA aircraft sorties detected operating around Taiwan?", "short_title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include", "url_title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include", "slug": "between-2025-10-15-and-2025-12-31-utc8-will-any-single-taiwan-mnd-daily-reporting-window-include", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.163662Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T08:30:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:25.759604Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.484983Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:30:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40281, "title": "Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC+8), will any single Taiwan MND daily reporting window include ≥40 PLA aircraft sorties detected operating around Taiwan?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:27.164222Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:30:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:22.739933Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T10:00:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) routinely publishes daily activity summaries for People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations “operating around Taiwan,” reporting totals such as “X sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today.” Example entries in 2025 show the phrasing, the 24-hour time window, and the metric used (number of PLA aircraft sorties):\n - “48 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN ships, and 1 official ship … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,” with the window “from 6 a.m. Jul. 23 to 6 a.m. Jul. 24 (UTC+8)”.\n - “41 sorties of PLA aircraft and 8 PLAN ships … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,” for the window “from 6 a.m. Jul. 3 to 6 a.m. Jul. 4 (UTC+8)”.\n - More recently, late September 2025 daily reports included “33 sorties of PLA aircraft … as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)” for the 24-hour window ending 2025-09-30 , and “19 sorties of PLA aircraft … as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)” for the window ending 2025-09-27.\n- These examples indicate that in mid-2025 there were several high-activity days above 40 sorties, while late-September counts were typically lower (high teens to low 30s), which creates uncertainty about whether another ≥40-sortie day will occur in the Oct 15–Dec 31 period.\n- Time zone: Taiwan uses National Standard Time (UTC+08:00), also commonly referred to as Taiwan Standard Time.\n- Term definition (for reference): The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China, overseen by the Central Military Commission; it comprises multiple services including the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, among others.\n\nWhat will be measured and why this is forecastable:\n- The metric is the MND-reported total number of “sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today” for a given 24-hour reporting window. Prior 2025 reports demonstrate that this number can vary substantially day-to-day and has reached ≥40 on some days while being lower on many others , making the outcome non-trivial.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"20fd6dc9cfe2a96b\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question:\n- Resolve YES if there exists at least one Taiwan MND daily reporting window ending between 2025-10-15 06:00 (UTC+8) and 2025-12-31 06:00 (UTC+8), inclusive, for which the MND’s daily update reports a total of 40 or more “sorties of PLA aircraft” detected operating around Taiwan. Otherwise, resolve NO.\n\nKey definitions and scope:\n- Taiwan MND daily reporting window (DARW): The 24-hour period used by Taiwan’s MND in its daily activity posts, typically expressed as “from 6 a.m. [date-1] to 6 a.m. [date] (UTC+8)” and summarized with wording such as “X sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today”. For this question, eligible DARWs are those whose end-of-window timestamp is on or after 2025-10-15 06:00 (UTC+8) and on or before 2025-12-31 06:00 (UTC+8), inclusive.\n- Metric to evaluate: The single headline total of “sorties of PLA aircraft” reported by MND for the DARW (the same count exemplified in the quoted phrasing above). Counts referring to subcategories (e.g., “crossed the median line” or entries by sector) are not used for threshold evaluation.\n- PLA aircraft: Aircraft belonging to the People’s Liberation Army of the People’s Republic of China. The PLA is the PRC’s armed forces, comprising multiple services; for this market we rely solely on the MND’s daily reported “sorties of PLA aircraft” total, not any independent classification by the resolver.\n- Time zone: Dates/times in this question refer to Taiwan’s National Standard Time (UTC+08:00).\n\nPrimary resolution source:\n- Taiwan MND’s official daily posts (any language) that summarize the DARW and include the “as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today” count of “sorties of PLA aircraft,” e.g., the MND English “Military News Update” posts which clearly show the phrasing, window, and total.\n\nProcedure and tie-breakers:\n- The resolver will review all eligible DARWs in the specified period. If any eligible DARW has a reported total ≥40 sorties of PLA aircraft, the market resolves YES; if none do, it resolves NO.\n- If multiple official MND posts for the same DARW provide different totals, the later-released official count will prevail (i.e., an explicit correction supersedes an earlier number).\n- If an official MND web post is temporarily inaccessible, credible archival copies (e.g., the same page cached or archived) or the MND’s official social media posts for the same DARW may be used. As a last resort, mainstream wire reporting that explicitly cites the MND number for the specific DARW and matches the window and phrasing may be used, provided it is consistent with other official communications.\n\nExamples to guide interpretation (non-exhaustive):\n- A post stating “48 sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,” with window “from 6 a.m. Jul. 23 to 6 a.m. Jul. 24 (UTC+8),” would count as ≥40 for the DARW ending 2025-07-24 06:00 (UTC+8). If an analogous post occurs for any eligible DARW in the Oct 15–Dec 31 window (as defined above), the question resolves YES.\n- A post stating “33 sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,” for the window ending 2025-09-30 06:00 (UTC+8), is below threshold and would not trigger a YES by itself.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40685, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01:\n- Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) routinely publishes daily activity summaries for People’s Liberation Army (PLA) operations “operating around Taiwan,” reporting totals such as “X sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today.” Example entries in 2025 show the phrasing, the 24-hour time window, and the metric used (number of PLA aircraft sorties):\n - “48 sorties of PLA aircraft, 9 PLAN ships, and 1 official ship … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,” with the window “from 6 a.m. Jul. 23 to 6 a.m. Jul. 24 (UTC+8)”.\n - “41 sorties of PLA aircraft and 8 PLAN ships … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today,” for the window “from 6 a.m. Jul. 3 to 6 a.m. Jul. 4 (UTC+8)”.\n - More recently, late September 2025 daily reports included “33 sorties of PLA aircraft … as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)” for the 24-hour window ending 2025-09-30 , and “19 sorties of PLA aircraft … as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8)” for the window ending 2025-09-27.\n- These examples indicate that in mid-2025 there were several high-activity days above 40 sorties, while late-September counts were typically lower (high teens to low 30s), which creates uncertainty about whether another ≥40-sortie day will occur in the Oct 15–Dec 31 period.\n- Time zone: Taiwan uses National Standard Time (UTC+08:00), also commonly referred to as Taiwan Standard Time.\n- Term definition (for reference): The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the armed forces of the People’s Republic of China, overseen by the Central Military Commission; it comprises multiple services including the Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force, among others.\n\nWhat will be measured and why this is forecastable:\n- The metric is the MND-reported total number of “sorties of PLA aircraft … detected as of 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today” for a given 24-hour reporting window. Prior 2025 reports demonstrate that this number can vary substantially day-to-day and has reached ≥40 on some days while being lower on many others , making the outcome non-trivial.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"20fd6dc9cfe2a96b\"}}`" }, { "id": 40684, "title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any part of the West Bank between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any p", "url_title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any p", "slug": "will-israel-enact-and-publish-an-act-applying-israeli-law-jurisdiction-and-administration-to-any-p", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.711969Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T08:24:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:52.214133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.970531Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:24:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40280, "title": "Will Israel enact and publish an act applying Israeli law, jurisdiction, and administration to any part of the West Bank between October 15 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.712436Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:24:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:49.087063Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:54:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: On Sept 21, 2025, Reuters reported Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would propose that the cabinet apply sovereignty in the West Bank—described as de facto annexation. On Sept 25, 2025, President Donald Trump stated he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, signaling strong external constraints on any formal move. In Israeli legal practice, “application of sovereignty” has historically been effected via laws or government decrees that extend Israeli “law, jurisdiction and administration” to a territory (e.g., the Golan Heights Law of Dec 14, 1981: “The Law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall apply to the Golan Heights…” ). Israel also applied its law to Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law (1980), which the Israeli Supreme Court treated as annexation of East Jerusalem.\n\nDefinitions and data sources a forecaster should know:\n- West Bank: A territory west of the Jordan River with an area of about 5,660 km²; within Israel it is often referred to by the biblical names “Judea and Samaria.” For the purposes of this question, “West Bank” excludes areas incorporated into Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law.\n- Government of Israel: The executive authority (Cabinet) composed of ministers led by the Prime Minister; executive power is vested in the Government per Israel’s Basic Laws.\n- Reshumot (Israel’s Official Gazette): The law gazette of record publishing official acts. Relevant series include Sefer Ha-Chukkim (primary legislation passed by the Knesset), Kovetz Takanot (secondary legislation such as regulations and orders), and Yalkut HaPirsumim (administrative notifications and government notices). These are authoritative publication venues for official acts and decrees.\n\nWhy this matters and why uncertainty is meaningful: Ben-Gvir’s declared intention to propose applying sovereignty to parts of the West Bank suggests pressure within the Israeli coalition for formal moves , while the U.S. President’s stated opposition raises the likelihood of deterrents or delays. Formal annexation-like acts in Israel typically use legally specific phrasing (“law, jurisdiction and administration… shall apply”), offering a clear, verifiable signal. Given these opposing forces, a formal act within the remainder of 2025 is plausible yet uncertain and would be geopolitically consequential.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will be publications in Reshumot’s Sefer Ha-Chukkim (Knesset laws) or Yalkut HaPirsumim/Kovetz Takanot (government decrees or orders), which are the official record of laws and government acts in Israel. If an act occurs, it will also be widely reported by major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP), but the official gazette provides the definitive legal record.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"13d322f1c03113ca\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Time window: Events count if they occur between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nResolve Yes if, during the time window, Israel enacts and publishes in Reshumot an official act that explicitly applies Israeli civil law to any defined territorial area within the West Bank (excluding areas of Jerusalem covered by the Jerusalem Law), using the operative phrasing or its clear legal equivalent. Specifically:\n- Qualifying acts:\n - A Knesset law published in Sefer Ha-Chukkim that states Israeli “law, jurisdiction and administration” shall apply to a described area within the West Bank (or unambiguously states that Israeli law shall apply or that the area is annexed to the State of Israel).\n - A government decree, regulation, or order published in Kovetz Takanot or Yalkut HaPirsumim that explicitly extends Israeli “law, jurisdiction and administration” (or unambiguously applies Israeli law/annexes) to a described area within the West Bank.\n\n- Territorial scope and definitions:\n - “West Bank” refers to the territory west of the Jordan River commonly known as the West Bank and, for this question, excludes any area legally incorporated into Jerusalem under the Jerusalem Law. The West Bank is also known by the biblical names “Judea and Samaria” within Israel.\n - “Explicitly applies Israeli law” means the text of the act includes the Golan Heights Law–style operative phrasing—e.g., “The law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall apply…”—or a clear legal equivalent indicating Israeli civil law is extended to the territory, consistent with past annexation-like acts.\n - The area must be described with sufficient specificity (e.g., named locality, map reference, coordinates, or a delineated administrative zone) so that a reasonable verifier can determine it lies within the West Bank as defined above.\n\n- Non-qualifying actions:\n - Draft bills not enacted, cabinet proposals, party platforms, symbolic motions, press statements, or military/administrative orders that do not extend Israeli civil law/sovereignty to territory do not count.\n - Acts applying Israeli law to areas of Jerusalem (already covered by Jerusalem Law) do not count.\n\nVerification and sources:\n- Primary: Reshumot entries (Sefer Ha-Chukkim for enacted laws; Kovetz Takanot/Yalkut HaPirsumim for decrees and administrative notices). The act’s text must contain the operative phrasing or clear legal equivalent extending Israeli law to a West Bank area.\n- Secondary corroboration (if needed for context): major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP) will report on any such act , but the official gazette publication is required for a Yes.\n\nResolve No if no qualifying act is published in Reshumot during the time window.\n\nAmbiguity handling:\n- If an act ambiguously references “sovereignty” without extending Israeli civil law or uses wording that cannot reasonably be interpreted as applying Israeli law/jurisdiction/administration, resolve No.\n- If territorial description is unclear, use the act’s accompanying maps/coordinates or recognized place names to confirm it lies within the West Bank as defined; if still indeterminate, resolve No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40684, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: On Sept 21, 2025, Reuters reported Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said he would propose that the cabinet apply sovereignty in the West Bank—described as de facto annexation. On Sept 25, 2025, President Donald Trump stated he would not allow Israel to annex the West Bank, signaling strong external constraints on any formal move. In Israeli legal practice, “application of sovereignty” has historically been effected via laws or government decrees that extend Israeli “law, jurisdiction and administration” to a territory (e.g., the Golan Heights Law of Dec 14, 1981: “The Law, jurisdiction and administration of the state shall apply to the Golan Heights…” ). Israel also applied its law to Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law (1980), which the Israeli Supreme Court treated as annexation of East Jerusalem.\n\nDefinitions and data sources a forecaster should know:\n- West Bank: A territory west of the Jordan River with an area of about 5,660 km²; within Israel it is often referred to by the biblical names “Judea and Samaria.” For the purposes of this question, “West Bank” excludes areas incorporated into Jerusalem by the Jerusalem Law.\n- Government of Israel: The executive authority (Cabinet) composed of ministers led by the Prime Minister; executive power is vested in the Government per Israel’s Basic Laws.\n- Reshumot (Israel’s Official Gazette): The law gazette of record publishing official acts. Relevant series include Sefer Ha-Chukkim (primary legislation passed by the Knesset), Kovetz Takanot (secondary legislation such as regulations and orders), and Yalkut HaPirsumim (administrative notifications and government notices). These are authoritative publication venues for official acts and decrees.\n\nWhy this matters and why uncertainty is meaningful: Ben-Gvir’s declared intention to propose applying sovereignty to parts of the West Bank suggests pressure within the Israeli coalition for formal moves , while the U.S. President’s stated opposition raises the likelihood of deterrents or delays. Formal annexation-like acts in Israel typically use legally specific phrasing (“law, jurisdiction and administration… shall apply”), offering a clear, verifiable signal. Given these opposing forces, a formal act within the remainder of 2025 is plausible yet uncertain and would be geopolitically consequential.\n\nPrimary resolution sources will be publications in Reshumot’s Sefer Ha-Chukkim (Knesset laws) or Yalkut HaPirsumim/Kovetz Takanot (government decrees or orders), which are the official record of laws and government acts in Israel. If an act occurs, it will also be widely reported by major international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP), but the official gazette provides the definitive legal record.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"13d322f1c03113ca\"}}`" }, { "id": 40683, "title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "short_title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "url_title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "slug": "will-the-democratic-nominee-win-the-2025-new-jersey-gubernatorial-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.269961Z", "published_at": "2025-11-23T08:00:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:00:43.327123Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.480377Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:00:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40279, "title": "Will the Democratic nominee win the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial election?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.270365Z", "open_time": "2025-11-23T08:00:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:00:32.706613Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-23T09:30:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. The major-party nominees are Mikie Sherrill (Democratic) and Jack Ciattarelli (Republican). New Jersey elects the governor and lieutenant governor on a single joint ticket in the general election. Sherrill’s announced running mate is Dale Caldwell; Ciattarelli’s is Jim Gannon. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited and ineligible to run again. For context, the 2021 gubernatorial race was decided by 3.2 percentage points, narrower than 2017, and Democrats carried the state by 5.9 points in the 2024 presidential election.\n\nPrimary and results infrastructure: AP News maintains a 2025 New Jersey election results project page and provides race calls (declaring winners) for covered contests [4b23a]. The New Jersey Division of Elections publishes official results and certifications, including “General Election Certifications,” which serve as the state’s official determination of winners.\n\nHelpful definitions/links: Governor of New Jersey (overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_New_Jersey. Democratic Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States). Republican Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States). Coordinated joint ticket concept (running mate): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_mate. Time standard for this question: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"6634329250229076\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the official outcome of the New Jersey 2025 general election for governor.\n\nStart and end of observation window: Only outcomes and sources available between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC are considered for resolution. The election is scheduled for November 4, 2025.\n\nDefinitions (with disambiguation):\n- Democratic nominee: The individual who appears on the 2025 New Jersey general election ballot as the Democratic Party’s candidate for governor. If the original nominee withdraws, dies, or is replaced consistent with New Jersey law, “Democratic nominee” refers to the replacement Democratic candidate listed on the general-election ballot on election day. (General party definitions linked in Background.)\n- Win / Winner: The gubernatorial-lieutenant gubernatorial ticket certified by the State of New Jersey as elected in the 2025 general election for governor, via the New Jersey Division of Elections’ official “General Election Certifications”; New Jersey elects governor and lieutenant governor on a single ticket.\n\nPrimary resolution source (authoritative):\n- Resolve “Yes” if, by 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, the New Jersey Division of Elections publishes its official 2025 General Election Certifications indicating that the Democratic Party gubernatorial ticket is elected; resolve “No” if those certifications indicate any other ticket is elected.\n\nSecondary resolution source (fallback if certification not posted by the deadline):\n- If the above certification is not publicly available by the deadline, resolve based on The Associated Press race call for the 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election as displayed on AP’s 2025 New Jersey election results project page by the deadline [4b23a].\n\nTies and contingencies:\n- If a recount or court proceeding delays certification past the deadline, the AP race call (if available by the deadline) will be used as specified above [4b23a]. If both an official state certification and an AP call are available by the deadline and they conflict (highly unlikely), the state’s official certification takes precedence.\n\nAll times are in UTC. The question resolves Yes if and only if the Democratic nominee’s gubernatorial ticket wins per the applicable source above; otherwise, No.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40683, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: The 2025 New Jersey gubernatorial general election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 4, 2025. The major-party nominees are Mikie Sherrill (Democratic) and Jack Ciattarelli (Republican). New Jersey elects the governor and lieutenant governor on a single joint ticket in the general election. Sherrill’s announced running mate is Dale Caldwell; Ciattarelli’s is Jim Gannon. Incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited and ineligible to run again. For context, the 2021 gubernatorial race was decided by 3.2 percentage points, narrower than 2017, and Democrats carried the state by 5.9 points in the 2024 presidential election.\n\nPrimary and results infrastructure: AP News maintains a 2025 New Jersey election results project page and provides race calls (declaring winners) for covered contests [4b23a]. The New Jersey Division of Elections publishes official results and certifications, including “General Election Certifications,” which serve as the state’s official determination of winners.\n\nHelpful definitions/links: Governor of New Jersey (overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governor_of_New_Jersey. Democratic Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Party_(United_States). Republican Party (United States): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_(United_States). Coordinated joint ticket concept (running mate): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Running_mate. Time standard for this question: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"6634329250229076\"}}`" }, { "id": 40682, "title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional monetary fine under the Digital Markets Act against any gatekeeper (excluding the 23 Apr 2025 Apple/Meta fines)?", "short_title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional moneta", "url_title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional moneta", "slug": "between-15-oct-and-31-dec-2025-will-the-european-commission-announce-at-least-one-additional-moneta", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.785177Z", "published_at": "2025-11-22T14:23:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:01:11.450300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:26.025485Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T14:23:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40278, "title": "Between 15 Oct and 31 Dec 2025, will the European Commission announce at least one additional monetary fine under the Digital Markets Act against any gatekeeper (excluding the 23 Apr 2025 Apple/Meta fines)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.785629Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T14:23:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:08.777493Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T15:53:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- On 23 April 2025, the European Commission announced its first non-compliance decisions under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), finding Apple and Meta in breach and imposing fines of €500 million and €200 million, respectively. The official press materials characterize these as the first non-compliance decisions adopted under the DMA (see EC Press Corner release and DMA news page).\n- The Commission opened non-compliance investigations against Alphabet, Apple, and Meta on 25 March 2024, targeting issues including anti-steering rules in app stores, self-preferencing in search, and Meta’s “pay or consent” data model. The Commission aimed to conclude these proceedings within 12 months and noted that infringements can lead to fines of up to 10% of worldwide turnover (or up to 20% for repeat infringements).\n- On 19 March 2025, the Commission sent preliminary findings to Alphabet regarding alleged failures to comply with DMA obligations related to Google Search and Google Play, a procedural step that can precede a non-compliance decision and potential fine.\n- Gatekeepers and services: The EC maintains a list of designated gatekeepers and core platform services (CPS). As of updates shown in 2025, entries include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple (including iPadOS designated on 29 April 2024), ByteDance, Meta, Microsoft, and Booking.com; Meta was undesignated for Facebook Marketplace as an online intermediation service on 23 April 2025. In total, 23 CPS are shown as designated on the EC page.\n- Fines under the DMA: The DMA provides for fines up to 10% of total worldwide turnover for infringements, and up to 20% for repeat offences; it also provides for periodic penalty payments (up to 5% of average daily turnover) distinct from one-off fines. The Commission’s public EUR-Lex summary states these thresholds and distinguishes periodic penalty payments from fines.\n\nWhy this is forecastable: After the April 2025 Apple/Meta fines, additional DMA enforcement activity—especially toward Alphabet and other gatekeepers—remains plausible before year-end but is not assured. Forecasters can track EC press outputs (Press Corner, DMA news) and companies’ remedial actions to handicap the likelihood of another monetary fine being announced within the stated window.\n\nKey references and definitions for forecasters:\n- Digital Markets Act (Regulation (EU) 2022/1925): overview and enforcement powers including fines and periodic penalty payments (EUR-Lex summary).\n- EC press materials on the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta non-compliance decisions (Press Corner PDF; DMA news item).\n- Investigations and procedural posture (EC DMA news items on investigations and preliminary findings).\n- EC gatekeepers page for background on designated undertakings and CPS.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"358d263253161127\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (inclusive), will the European Commission announce at least one additional monetary fine under the Digital Markets Act (DMA) against any gatekeeper, excluding the fines announced on 23 April 2025 against Apple and Meta?\n\nDefinitions (with authoritative references):\n- Digital Markets Act (DMA): Regulation (EU) 2022/1925 governing gatekeepers of core platform services. The EUR-Lex public summary describes enforcement powers and fine thresholds (up to 10% of worldwide turnover, up to 20% for repeat offences) and periodic penalty payments (up to 5% of average daily turnover).\n- Gatekeeper: An undertaking designated by the European Commission under the DMA for one or more core platform services; for background and current designations see the EC gatekeepers page. For resolution purposes here, it is sufficient that the Commission’s announcement explicitly indicates the addressee is a gatekeeper under the DMA.\n- Monetary fine under the DMA: A one-off financial penalty imposed by the Commission in a non-compliance decision pursuant to the DMA (Article 30 framework, as summarized on EUR-Lex), distinct from periodic penalty payments (Article 31 framework) and distinct from fines under other legal bases (e.g., antitrust decisions under TFEU Articles 101/102 or data protection fines). The EUR-Lex summary specifies the fine thresholds and distinguishes periodic penalty payments.\n- Announcement: A publication by the European Commission that communicates the adoption of a non-compliance decision under the DMA imposing a monetary fine, made on an official EC web property, specifically one or more of the following:\n 1) Press Corner press release or statement (ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner), e.g., the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta example ;\n 2) The official DMA news page (digital-markets-act.ec.europa.eu), which carries items on DMA decisions and enforcement actions.\n If multiple EC pages exist for the same decision, the earliest displayed publication date across these official EC sources will be used for timing.\n\nTime window and date handling:\n- Eligible announcements are those with an EC-displayed publication date from 15 October 2025 through 31 December 2025 inclusive. If an EC page displays only a calendar date without a time, that calendar date will be used; no time-of-day comparison is required. If both a Press Corner item and a DMA news item exist with different displayed dates for the same decision, the earlier displayed date controls.\n\nInclusions and exclusions:\n- Include: Any EC-announced non-compliance decision under the DMA that imposes a monetary fine (in euros) on any gatekeeper, regardless of which gatekeeper, which core platform service, or the fine amount. Multiple fines announced the same day still satisfy the question if at least one meets the criteria.\n- Exclude: (a) The 23 April 2025 Apple and Meta fines (these are not within the window and are explicitly excluded) ; (b) Periodic penalty payments (ongoing daily/periodic charges) absent a one-off monetary fine ; (c) Non-fine enforcement actions such as statements of objections, preliminary findings, opening or closing investigations, commitments without fines, or guidance documents ; (d) Fines imposed under other legal frameworks (e.g., EU competition law decisions unrelated to the DMA or GDPR enforcement by data protection authorities).\n\nResolution sources and procedure:\n- Primary sources: EC Press Corner and the EC DMA news site. The resolver will search these sites for announcements within the window and verify that the text states that the Commission adopted a non-compliance decision under the DMA imposing a monetary fine, mirroring the form used in the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta materials. The EUR-Lex summary is provided to anchor the fine/penalty definitions and thresholds.\n- Backup sources (only if EC sites are temporarily inaccessible): Credible wire services that reliably report EC decisions (e.g., Reuters), but final resolution will be based on EC publications once accessible. The April 2025 decisions demonstrate the Commission’s practice of publishing such announcements on its official sites.\n\nOutcome determination:\n- YES if at least one qualifying EC announcement, as defined above, is published with an EC-displayed date between 15 October 2025 and 31 December 2025 inclusive.\n- NO otherwise.\n\nNotes:\n- The specific April 23, 2025 decisions and fines serve only as excluded prior events and as a template for what counts as an “announcement” and “monetary fine under the DMA”.\n- The Commission’s earlier opening of proceedings and preliminary findings are background and do not themselves satisfy the criteria.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40682, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- On 23 April 2025, the European Commission announced its first non-compliance decisions under the Digital Markets Act (DMA), finding Apple and Meta in breach and imposing fines of €500 million and €200 million, respectively. The official press materials characterize these as the first non-compliance decisions adopted under the DMA (see EC Press Corner release and DMA news page).\n- The Commission opened non-compliance investigations against Alphabet, Apple, and Meta on 25 March 2024, targeting issues including anti-steering rules in app stores, self-preferencing in search, and Meta’s “pay or consent” data model. The Commission aimed to conclude these proceedings within 12 months and noted that infringements can lead to fines of up to 10% of worldwide turnover (or up to 20% for repeat infringements).\n- On 19 March 2025, the Commission sent preliminary findings to Alphabet regarding alleged failures to comply with DMA obligations related to Google Search and Google Play, a procedural step that can precede a non-compliance decision and potential fine.\n- Gatekeepers and services: The EC maintains a list of designated gatekeepers and core platform services (CPS). As of updates shown in 2025, entries include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple (including iPadOS designated on 29 April 2024), ByteDance, Meta, Microsoft, and Booking.com; Meta was undesignated for Facebook Marketplace as an online intermediation service on 23 April 2025. In total, 23 CPS are shown as designated on the EC page.\n- Fines under the DMA: The DMA provides for fines up to 10% of total worldwide turnover for infringements, and up to 20% for repeat offences; it also provides for periodic penalty payments (up to 5% of average daily turnover) distinct from one-off fines. The Commission’s public EUR-Lex summary states these thresholds and distinguishes periodic penalty payments from fines.\n\nWhy this is forecastable: After the April 2025 Apple/Meta fines, additional DMA enforcement activity—especially toward Alphabet and other gatekeepers—remains plausible before year-end but is not assured. Forecasters can track EC press outputs (Press Corner, DMA news) and companies’ remedial actions to handicap the likelihood of another monetary fine being announced within the stated window.\n\nKey references and definitions for forecasters:\n- Digital Markets Act (Regulation (EU) 2022/1925): overview and enforcement powers including fines and periodic penalty payments (EUR-Lex summary).\n- EC press materials on the 23 April 2025 Apple/Meta non-compliance decisions (Press Corner PDF; DMA news item).\n- Investigations and procedural posture (EC DMA news items on investigations and preliminary findings).\n- EC gatekeepers page for background on designated undertakings and CPS.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"358d263253161127\"}}`" }, { "id": 40681, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 202", "url_title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 202", "slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-hold-the-office-of-prime-minister-of-israel-at-2359-utc-on-december-31-202", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.396802Z", "published_at": "2025-11-22T11:32:18Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:01:52.800481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.599928Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T11:32:18Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40277, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu hold the office of Prime Minister of Israel at 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.397181Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T11:32:18Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:49.922280Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T13:02:18Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of September 30, 2025: Benjamin Netanyahu is serving as Prime Minister of Israel, per current wire coverage of his official engagements and calls with world leaders. In mid-July 2025, coalition instability increased: United Torah Judaism (UTJ) quit Netanyahu’s coalition over the conscription bill, leaving his government with a one‑seat majority in the Knesset. The following day, the ultra‑Orthodox Shas party pulled its ministers from the cabinet but stated it would remain within the coalition, with reporting again noting that UTJ’s walkout left Netanyahu with just a one‑seat parliamentary majority; the Knesset’s summer recess starting July 27 gave Netanyahu time to try to resolve the dispute. Reuters coverage in this period described the government as extremely vulnerable. Definitions and institutional context: • Prime Minister of Israel: The head of government and chief executive of the State of Israel; executive power is vested in the Government, which the prime minister leads. • Acting Prime Minister: A cabinet member designated to temporarily exercise the prime minister’s powers while the incumbent remains in office (e.g., during temporary incapacity), typically limited to up to 100 consecutive days; the acting prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. • Interim Prime Minister: Appointed when the incumbent’s tenure ends (e.g., death, permanent incapacitation, or disqualification), to run the government until a new government is formed; the interim prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. • Caretaker government: A temporary government that continues performing governmental duties until a new government is formed; during caretaker periods, the incumbent prime minister remains in office (subject to any formal change in incumbency). Time standard: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) is the global primary time standard used for civil time and time zones; it is not adjusted for daylight saving time. Useful references: Prime Minister of Israel (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Israel. Acting prime minister and interim prime minister distinctions (see the above entry). Caretaker government (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caretaker_government. UTC (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time. Recent status reporting: Reuters coverage confirms Netanyahu’s status and activities as prime minister in late September 2025 , and details the July coalition changes and their impact on his majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"3bff64d506277225\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve Yes if, at exactly 23:59:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, Benjamin Netanyahu is the incumbent Prime Minister of Israel. Resolve No otherwise. Definitions for resolution: • \"Incumbent Prime Minister\" means the person holding the office of Prime Minister of Israel at that moment under Israeli law (the head of government and chief executive). • If an acting prime minister is serving while Benjamin Netanyahu remains the incumbent prime minister (e.g., due to temporary incapacity), this counts as Yes. • If an interim prime minister is serving because Netanyahu’s tenure has ended (e.g., resignation, permanent incapacitation beyond the statutory period, death, or disqualification), this counts as No. • During a caretaker period, the incumbent prime minister remains in office unless formally replaced; therefore, if Netanyahu is the incumbent during a caretaker period, this counts as Yes. Confirmation sources: The status will be confirmed using credible reporting from major wire services, specifically Reuters (https://www.reuters.com) or the Associated Press (https://apnews.com) at or immediately around the resolution time [404e31; fb1169; b9b0ee]. If needed for clarification, official Israeli government sources (e.g., the Prime Minister’s Office on Gov.il) may be used, but wire services alone are sufficient for resolution. Time standard: The resolution moment is defined in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Notes: Only legal incumbency effective by 23:59:00 UTC on December 31, 2025 counts. Announcements of future changes that are not yet effective at the resolution moment do not affect resolution. Claims and sources: Current status of Netanyahu as PM and late‑September activities. July 2025 coalition changes and one‑seat majority [fb1169; b9b0ee]. Definitions of prime minister, acting and interim prime ministers. Caretaker government definition. UTC definition.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40681, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of September 30, 2025: Benjamin Netanyahu is serving as Prime Minister of Israel, per current wire coverage of his official engagements and calls with world leaders. In mid-July 2025, coalition instability increased: United Torah Judaism (UTJ) quit Netanyahu’s coalition over the conscription bill, leaving his government with a one‑seat majority in the Knesset. The following day, the ultra‑Orthodox Shas party pulled its ministers from the cabinet but stated it would remain within the coalition, with reporting again noting that UTJ’s walkout left Netanyahu with just a one‑seat parliamentary majority; the Knesset’s summer recess starting July 27 gave Netanyahu time to try to resolve the dispute. Reuters coverage in this period described the government as extremely vulnerable. Definitions and institutional context: • Prime Minister of Israel: The head of government and chief executive of the State of Israel; executive power is vested in the Government, which the prime minister leads. • Acting Prime Minister: A cabinet member designated to temporarily exercise the prime minister’s powers while the incumbent remains in office (e.g., during temporary incapacity), typically limited to up to 100 consecutive days; the acting prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. • Interim Prime Minister: Appointed when the incumbent’s tenure ends (e.g., death, permanent incapacitation, or disqualification), to run the government until a new government is formed; the interim prime minister cannot dissolve the Knesset. • Caretaker government: A temporary government that continues performing governmental duties until a new government is formed; during caretaker periods, the incumbent prime minister remains in office (subject to any formal change in incumbency). Time standard: Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) is the global primary time standard used for civil time and time zones; it is not adjusted for daylight saving time. Useful references: Prime Minister of Israel (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Israel. Acting prime minister and interim prime minister distinctions (see the above entry). Caretaker government (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caretaker_government. UTC (Wikipedia): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time. Recent status reporting: Reuters coverage confirms Netanyahu’s status and activities as prime minister in late September 2025 , and details the July coalition changes and their impact on his majority.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"3bff64d506277225\"}}`" }, { "id": 40680, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari (or note probable jurisdiction) in a merits case arising from Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition between October 15 and December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari (or note probable jurisdiction) in a merits case arisin", "url_title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari (or note probable jurisdiction) in a merits case arisin", "slug": "will-the-us-supreme-court-grant-certiorari-or-note-probable-jurisdiction-in-a-merits-case-arisin", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.003655Z", "published_at": "2025-11-22T07:59:53Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-26T01:02:00.641442Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.211176Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T09:29:53Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T09:29:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T07:59:53Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40276, "title": "Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari (or note probable jurisdiction) in a merits case arising from Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition between October 15 and December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:25.004047Z", "open_time": "2025-11-22T07:59:53Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-22T09:29:53Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-22T09:29:53Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-26T01:01:57.675880Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-22T09:29:53Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-22T09:29:53Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: On Sept 26, 2025, the Supreme Court granted the government’s emergency application for a stay in No. 25A269, Department of State, et al. v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition, et al., pausing a D.D.C. preliminary injunction that had ordered the Executive to make available and obligate expiring foreign‑assistance funds, including approximately $4 billion identified in the President’s Aug 28 rescission “special message” under the Impoundment Control Act. The order expressly described itself as a preliminary view, not a final merits determination, and kept the stay in place pending disposition of the government’s appeal in the D.C. Circuit and the disposition of any timely certiorari petition; it further provided that the stay would automatically terminate upon denial of certiorari and would terminate upon the sending down of the Supreme Court’s judgment if certiorari were granted. The docket identifies the lower‑court lineage as D.D.C. Case Nos. 1:25‑cv‑00400 and 1:25‑cv‑00402, and D.C. Circuit appeal Nos. 25‑5317 and 25‑5319. Coverage of the order noted a dissent by Justices Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson and described the dispute over using the Impoundment Control Act’s rescission procedures to withhold nearly $4 billion in foreign‑aid funds until they expired. The Impoundment Control Act of 1974 allows a President to propose rescissions, but funds must be released if Congress does not approve rescission legislation within 45 days of continuous session; the Act was designed to limit unilateral executive impoundment of appropriations.\n\nKey definitions (for this question’s resolution):\n- Grant certiorari: The Supreme Court grants a petition for a writ of certiorari when at least four Justices vote to review a lower‑court decision; upon grant, the case proceeds to merits briefing and argument.\n- Note probable jurisdiction: In direct appeals authorized by statute (e.g., from certain district‑court judgments), the Court may issue an order stating “probable jurisdiction noted,” which commits the case to full merits briefing and argument; this is distinct from certiorari but likewise signals the Court will hear the case on the merits.\n- Merits case arising from Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition: Any Supreme Court merits docket (i) in which the Supreme Court’s order or docket identifies as the lower court the D.C. Circuit appeals 25‑5317 or 25‑5319 and/or the D.D.C. cases 1:25‑cv‑00400 or 1:25‑cv‑00402; or (ii) that the Supreme Court explicitly consolidates with a petition or appeal arising from those lower‑court case numbers.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Supreme Court’s official docket (searchable at supremecourt.gov) is the source of truth for orders granting certiorari or noting probable jurisdiction; the 25A269 docket demonstrates the format and content of such entries.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"99add1cabbe1e8ba\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if, between Oct 15, 2025 at 00:00:00 UTC and Dec 31, 2025 at 23:59:59 UTC, the Supreme Court’s official docket shows an order either (a) “Certiorari granted” on a petition, or (b) “Probable jurisdiction noted” on a direct appeal, in a Supreme Court merits case arising from the dispute identified in Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition as defined in the Background (i.e., a case tied on the docket to D.D.C. Nos. 1:25‑cv‑00400/‑00402 and/or D.C. Cir. Nos. 25‑5317/‑5319, or explicitly consolidated with them). Resolve No otherwise (including if no such order appears, if a petition is denied, if only emergency relief is granted without cert, or if any relevant grant occurs outside the specified window).\n\nInclusions:\n- Any Supreme Court order that uses the standard language signaling merits review (“Certiorari granted” or “Probable jurisdiction noted”) on a docket tied to the defined lower‑court lineage.\n\nExclusions:\n- Emergency‑docket orders (e.g., stays, administrative stays) without a grant of certiorari or a notation of probable jurisdiction do not count.\n- Actions by lower courts do not count toward resolution.\n\nHow to verify: Use the Supreme Court’s official docket search at supremecourt.gov to locate the relevant case(s). Confirm that the docket entry within the specified window explicitly states “Certiorari granted” or “Probable jurisdiction noted,” and that the docket identifies lower‑court numbers or consolidation consistent with D.D.C. 1:25‑cv‑00400/‑00402 and/or D.C. Cir. 25‑5317/‑5319, matching the lineage of No. 25A269.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40680, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: On Sept 26, 2025, the Supreme Court granted the government’s emergency application for a stay in No. 25A269, Department of State, et al. v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition, et al., pausing a D.D.C. preliminary injunction that had ordered the Executive to make available and obligate expiring foreign‑assistance funds, including approximately $4 billion identified in the President’s Aug 28 rescission “special message” under the Impoundment Control Act. The order expressly described itself as a preliminary view, not a final merits determination, and kept the stay in place pending disposition of the government’s appeal in the D.C. Circuit and the disposition of any timely certiorari petition; it further provided that the stay would automatically terminate upon denial of certiorari and would terminate upon the sending down of the Supreme Court’s judgment if certiorari were granted. The docket identifies the lower‑court lineage as D.D.C. Case Nos. 1:25‑cv‑00400 and 1:25‑cv‑00402, and D.C. Circuit appeal Nos. 25‑5317 and 25‑5319. Coverage of the order noted a dissent by Justices Kagan, Sotomayor, and Jackson and described the dispute over using the Impoundment Control Act’s rescission procedures to withhold nearly $4 billion in foreign‑aid funds until they expired. The Impoundment Control Act of 1974 allows a President to propose rescissions, but funds must be released if Congress does not approve rescission legislation within 45 days of continuous session; the Act was designed to limit unilateral executive impoundment of appropriations.\n\nKey definitions (for this question’s resolution):\n- Grant certiorari: The Supreme Court grants a petition for a writ of certiorari when at least four Justices vote to review a lower‑court decision; upon grant, the case proceeds to merits briefing and argument.\n- Note probable jurisdiction: In direct appeals authorized by statute (e.g., from certain district‑court judgments), the Court may issue an order stating “probable jurisdiction noted,” which commits the case to full merits briefing and argument; this is distinct from certiorari but likewise signals the Court will hear the case on the merits.\n- Merits case arising from Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition: Any Supreme Court merits docket (i) in which the Supreme Court’s order or docket identifies as the lower court the D.C. Circuit appeals 25‑5317 or 25‑5319 and/or the D.D.C. cases 1:25‑cv‑00400 or 1:25‑cv‑00402; or (ii) that the Supreme Court explicitly consolidates with a petition or appeal arising from those lower‑court case numbers.\n\nPrimary resolution source: The Supreme Court’s official docket (searchable at supremecourt.gov) is the source of truth for orders granting certiorari or noting probable jurisdiction; the 25A269 docket demonstrates the format and content of such entries.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"99add1cabbe1e8ba\"}}`" }, { "id": 40679, "title": "Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity between 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC?", "short_title": "Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity betwe", "url_title": "Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity betwe", "slug": "will-at-least-one-atlantic-tropical-cyclone-first-reach-category-3-major-hurricane-intensity-betwe", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:24.521346Z", "published_at": "2025-11-21T16:07:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-21T17:38:00.203874Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:24.727363Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-21T17:37:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T17:37:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-21T16:07:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40275, "title": "Will at least one Atlantic tropical cyclone first reach Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity between 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59 UTC?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:24.521757Z", "open_time": "2025-11-21T16:07:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-21T17:37:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-21T17:37:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-21T17:37:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-21T17:37:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo (as of 2025-10-01): NOAA’s updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook (issued Aug 7, 2025) projected 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes, and stated the season remained on track for above-normal activity. The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) defines Category 3 hurricanes as 111–129 mph sustained winds, and Categories 3–5 are termed “major hurricanes”. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service define “maximum sustained wind” as the highest 1-minute average wind at 10 meters over unobstructed exposure at a given time , and NHC defines a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 64 kt (74 mph) using the U.S. 1-minute average. The NHC issues operational advisories in UTC at regular 6-hour cycles (0300, 0900, 1500, 2100 UTC), with Special Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) issued at any time for significant changes, and these products include the current maximum sustained wind (intensity). For verification, NHC maintains a 2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive that hosts the operational advisory packages for each storm. The “Atlantic basin” refers to the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. The forecasting window in this question focuses on the late-season period from October 15 through November 30, 2025 (UTC), which lies within the official Atlantic hurricane season (June 1–November 30) as defined by NHC.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"44277156f3c69aa9\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Yes resolution: Resolve “Yes” if any Atlantic tropical cyclone’s first attainment of Category 3 (major hurricane) intensity occurs between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-11-30 23:59:59 UTC, inclusive. “First attainment” is defined operationally as the earliest NHC product issuance in which the cyclone’s maximum sustained winds are stated as at least 111 mph (i.e., Category 3 or higher on the SSHWS), using the U.S. 1-minute average at 10 m exposure. Eligible NHC operational products are: Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory (TCP), Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory (TCM), Special Advisory, and Tropical Cyclone Update (TCU); we will use the product’s UTC issuance time printed in the header to determine whether it falls within the window. The cyclone must be within the NHC Atlantic basin area of responsibility (North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico). No resolution: Resolve “No” if no such first attainment occurs within the stated window. Scope and clarifications: • Only operational NHC advisory products are used for resolution; any post-storm reanalysis or later database revisions do not affect the outcome. • If a TCU or Special Advisory first announces the upgrade to major hurricane intensity before the next scheduled advisory, that TCU/Special Advisory’s UTC issuance time governs. • If a cyclone reached Category 3 intensity for the first time before 2025-10-15 00:00 UTC (even if it remains Cat 3+ during the window), it does not count. If it first reaches Category 3 intensity at or after 2025-12-01 00:00 UTC, it does not count. Verification sources: • NHC 2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive (storm-specific pages for the Atlantic) to retrieve the earliest operational product showing maximum sustained winds ≥111 mph and its UTC issuance time. • NHC product documentation to confirm intensity fields and UTC issuance conventions, and eligible product types (TCP/TCM/TCU/Special Advisory). Definitions and references for forecasters: • Major hurricane and Category 3 threshold (SSHWS). • Maximum sustained wind (1-minute, 10 m). • Hurricane (NHC definition) and Atlantic season dates. • Atlantic basin geography. • 2025 seasonal context (NOAA August update).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40679, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763744804.588255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763744804.588255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.6571417624521072 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 20.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo (as of 2025-10-01): NOAA’s updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook (issued Aug 7, 2025) projected 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes, and stated the season remained on track for above-normal activity. The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) defines Category 3 hurricanes as 111–129 mph sustained winds, and Categories 3–5 are termed “major hurricanes”. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) and National Weather Service define “maximum sustained wind” as the highest 1-minute average wind at 10 meters over unobstructed exposure at a given time , and NHC defines a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 64 kt (74 mph) using the U.S. 1-minute average. The NHC issues operational advisories in UTC at regular 6-hour cycles (0300, 0900, 1500, 2100 UTC), with Special Advisories and Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) issued at any time for significant changes, and these products include the current maximum sustained wind (intensity). For verification, NHC maintains a 2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive that hosts the operational advisory packages for each storm. The “Atlantic basin” refers to the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. The forecasting window in this question focuses on the late-season period from October 15 through November 30, 2025 (UTC), which lies within the official Atlantic hurricane season (June 1–November 30) as defined by NHC.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"44277156f3c69aa9\"}}`" }, { "id": 40678, "title": "Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last weekly reading with a Monday date in December 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last", "url_title": "Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last", "slug": "will-the-eia-reported-us-average-retail-price-for-regular-gasoline-be-below-310gal-in-the-last", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:24.048615Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T17:32:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T19:03:00.223008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:24.330089Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T19:02:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T19:02:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T17:32:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40274, "title": "Will the EIA-reported U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline be below $3.10/gal in the last weekly reading with a Monday date in December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:24.049008Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T17:32:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T19:02:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T19:02:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T19:02:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T19:02:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01\n- What series we mean: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes a weekly national average retail gasoline price series commonly referenced as “Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)” and disseminated on EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update portal. The same national series is republished by FRED as GASREGW with metadata indicating frequency “Weekly, Ending Monday” and units “Dollars per Gallon”.\n- What “regular gasoline” means: EIA table definitions define “Regular gasoline” as gasoline with an antiknock index (average of research octane number and motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88.\n- What the published retail price represents: EIA’s methodology states the weekly survey collects the cash price at the pump, including taxes, and that estimates are published at approximately 5:00 p.m. ET Monday (Tuesday on government holidays) but still represent Monday’s prices.\n- How the national average is constructed: EIA’s weekly price estimates are calculated as volume‑weighted averages at the national, regional, and selected city/state levels, based on a stratified sample of retail outlets.\n- Recent levels: As a reference point for forecasters, the FRED GASREGW series (sourced from EIA) shows recent U.S. weekly values (dollars per gallon): 2025‑09‑22: 3.173; 2025‑09‑15: 3.168; 2025‑09‑08: 3.192; 2025‑09‑01: 3.177.\n- Known data issues: EIA noted misclassifications affecting some weekly motor gasoline formulation data between 2023‑09‑18 and 2023‑11‑06 and stated the published prices would not be changed; this is historical context and does not alter 2025 methodology or current series usage.\nWhy this is forecastable now: Late‑year gasoline prices reflect crude oil movements, refining margins, seasonal demand, and tax/regulatory factors. As of late September 2025, the national average is modestly above $3.10/gal, and late‑December often exhibits seasonal softening—creating plausible uncertainty around a $3.10 threshold. Primary source for resolution: EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update and the EIA national weekly series page.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"7270db5c521b2e9b\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Yes/No event definition\n- Question: Will the last weekly U.S. national average retail price for regular gasoline with a Monday reference date in December 2025 be strictly less than $3.10 per gallon?\n- Series to use: EIA’s national weekly series “Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)” (commonly republished by FRED as GASREGW; frequency Weekly, Ending Monday). The landing page for these weekly prices is the EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update portal, which links to the national U.S. series.\n- What counts as the “last weekly reading in December 2025”: The observation in this series whose reference date is the final Monday that falls within December 2025 (U.S. Eastern Time). EIA states the weekly estimates represent Monday’s prices and are typically published around 5:00 p.m. ET Monday, or Tuesday on government holidays while still representing Monday’s prices.\n- Units and inclusions: Use the value as published by EIA for the national “regular gasoline” series, in dollars per gallon, which reflects the cash price at the pump including taxes.\n- Threshold and comparison: Resolve “Yes” if the EIA‑published value for that observation is strictly less than $3.10; resolve “No” otherwise. Determination is based on the value as displayed by EIA (typically to three decimal places) at the time of publication of that observation.\n- Timing window: This market question is intended to resolve once the last December‑dated weekly observation is published, which under EIA’s schedule should occur on Monday, December 29, 2025 (or Tuesday, December 30, 2025 if delayed by a federal holiday) and therefore before 2025‑12‑31 23:59 UTC.\n- Source(s) of truth and verification: The resolver will verify the outcome directly on EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update portal and/or the specific EIA weekly national series page for regular gasoline. If needed for cross‑check, the FRED GASREGW series (sourced from EIA) may be used to confirm the same weekly value and date labeling (“Weekly, Ending Monday”).\n- Scope clarifications:\n • Regular gasoline definition follows EIA’s table definitions (antiknock index >=85 and <88).\n • Prices include all taxes and represent the cash pump price observed on Monday.\n • The national average is a volume‑weighted estimate based on EIA’s sampling methodology.\n • Historical 2023 misclassification notice does not alter the 2025 national series definition or the use of the published national value for resolution; no retroactive changes to those weeks were made per EIA.\n- Edge cases:\n • If EIA publishes multiple December observations on the same date due to schedule adjustments, use the one whose reference (Monday) date is latest in December 2025.\n • If, contrary to expectations, EIA does not publish the final December 2025 observation by 2025‑12‑31 23:59 UTC, the market will remain open until the observation is published; however, based on EIA’s standard schedule this is not anticipated.\n\nKey references (for definitions, schedule, and recent levels): EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update landing page ; EIA weekly gasoline price methodology (publication timing, inclusion of taxes) ; EIA table definitions for “regular gasoline” ; methodology note on volume‑weighted national averages ; 2023 misclassification notice ; recent weekly observations and series metadata via FRED GASREGW.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40678, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763663570.69164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763663570.69164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.661659090909091 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 15.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 3.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and status quo as of 2025-10-01\n- What series we mean: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes a weekly national average retail gasoline price series commonly referenced as “Weekly U.S. Regular All Formulations Retail Gasoline Prices (Dollars per Gallon)” and disseminated on EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update portal. The same national series is republished by FRED as GASREGW with metadata indicating frequency “Weekly, Ending Monday” and units “Dollars per Gallon”.\n- What “regular gasoline” means: EIA table definitions define “Regular gasoline” as gasoline with an antiknock index (average of research octane number and motor octane number) greater than or equal to 85 and less than 88.\n- What the published retail price represents: EIA’s methodology states the weekly survey collects the cash price at the pump, including taxes, and that estimates are published at approximately 5:00 p.m. ET Monday (Tuesday on government holidays) but still represent Monday’s prices.\n- How the national average is constructed: EIA’s weekly price estimates are calculated as volume‑weighted averages at the national, regional, and selected city/state levels, based on a stratified sample of retail outlets.\n- Recent levels: As a reference point for forecasters, the FRED GASREGW series (sourced from EIA) shows recent U.S. weekly values (dollars per gallon): 2025‑09‑22: 3.173; 2025‑09‑15: 3.168; 2025‑09‑08: 3.192; 2025‑09‑01: 3.177.\n- Known data issues: EIA noted misclassifications affecting some weekly motor gasoline formulation data between 2023‑09‑18 and 2023‑11‑06 and stated the published prices would not be changed; this is historical context and does not alter 2025 methodology or current series usage.\nWhy this is forecastable now: Late‑year gasoline prices reflect crude oil movements, refining margins, seasonal demand, and tax/regulatory factors. As of late September 2025, the national average is modestly above $3.10/gal, and late‑December often exhibits seasonal softening—creating plausible uncertainty around a $3.10 threshold. Primary source for resolution: EIA’s Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update and the EIA national weekly series page.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"7270db5c521b2e9b\"}}`" }, { "id": 40677, "title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will Ariane 6 have conducted at least four launches with liftoff timestamps in calendar year 2025?", "short_title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will Ariane 6 have conducted at least four launches with liftof", "url_title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will Ariane 6 have conducted at least four launches with liftof", "slug": "by-december-31-2025-235959-utc-will-ariane-6-have-conducted-at-least-four-launches-with-liftof", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:23.475698Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T09:34:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T11:05:00.202509Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:23.824919Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T11:04:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T11:04:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T09:34:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40273, "title": "By December 31, 2025 (23:59:59 UTC), will Ariane 6 have conducted at least four launches with liftoff timestamps in calendar year 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:23.476104Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T09:34:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T11:04:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T11:04:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T11:04:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T11:04:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of the status quo (as of 2025-09-30):\n- Ariane 6 conducted the VA263 mission on March 6, 2025. This was Ariane 6’s first commercial flight and the second Ariane 6 launch overall, lifting off at 13:24 local time in Kourou (16:24 UTC). Payload: CSO-3 Earth observation satellite.\n- Ariane 6 conducted the VA264 mission on August 12, 2025 (local), placing EUMETSAT’s Metop‑SG‑A1 into orbit; UTC liftoff time was 00:37 on August 13, 2025. This was the third Ariane 6 launch and its second commercial flight.\n- As of September 18, 2025, Arianespace stated it had conducted two Ariane 6 launches in 2025 and expected to perform two more before year’s end (for a total of four), which would be below earlier projections of five. Earlier in the year (Feb 11, 2025), Arianespace said it targeted five Ariane 6 launches in 2025, primarily in the second half of the year.\n\nWhat Ariane 6 is: Ariane 6 is Europe’s current heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle operated by Arianespace, launching from the ELA‑4 pad at Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. For general reference, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6 (link provided for definition; not used as a resolution source).\n\nWhy this question is interesting now: As of late September 2025, two Ariane 6 launches have occurred in 2025 with a publicly signaled goal of ending the year at four. Whether the ramp-up achieves four launches depends on vehicle readiness, range availability, payload readiness, and program priorities, and remains meaningfully uncertain.\n\nWhere resolution information will come from: Arianespace routinely publishes per-mission press releases and mission pages that include official liftoff timestamps (e.g., VA263 and VA264 pages). ESA also maintains an official page listing launches from Europe’s Spaceport with links to ESA liftoff write-ups, which can be used for cross-checking. Reputable industry media (e.g., SpaceNews) also report liftoff events and schedules and can serve as tertiary corroboration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"7af07daa14ad7bfe\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary resolution (Yes/No) based on a count of liftoffs.\n\n- Question: Between 2025-01-01 00:00:00 UTC (inclusive) and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC (inclusive), does the number of Ariane 6 launches that achieve liftoff reach at least four (≥4)? If yes, resolve Yes; otherwise, resolve No.\n\n- Definitions:\n • Ariane 6: Any launch of the Ariane 6 launch vehicle operated by Arianespace from ELA‑4 at Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. Link for general definition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6 (reference link only).\n • Launch (for counting purposes): An event in which an Ariane 6 mission achieves liftoff (the vehicle leaves the pad) following engine ignition during an official countdown. Aborted countdowns with no liftoff, static-fire tests, and wet-dress rehearsals do not count. Partial failures or mission anomalies after liftoff still count as launches. Liftoff is the instant declared by Arianespace/ESA on official channels (broadcast, press release, or mission page).\n • Liftoff timestamp: The official time of liftoff as given by Arianespace (or ESA) in UTC or convertible to UTC. If a local time is provided, convert to UTC using the offset stated in the official source.\n • Calendar year 2025: The period from 2025-01-01 00:00:00 UTC through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, inclusive.\n\n- Counting rules:\n • Include any Ariane 6 mission that achieves liftoff within the defined UTC window, regardless of mission outcome (success, partial failure, or failure).\n • Each distinct mission counts at most once.\n • If a liftoff occurs exactly at a boundary timestamp, include it if it is within the inclusive bounds stated above.\n\n- Primary resolution source: Arianespace official mission pages and press releases that give liftoff timestamps for each Ariane 6 mission (e.g., VA263 and VA264 releases demonstrate the format and availability of such timestamps).\n\n- Secondary corroboration sources (if needed):\n • ESA’s “Launches from Europe’s Spaceport from 2012” page and linked ESA liftoff write-ups.\n • Reputable space industry reporting (e.g., SpaceNews coverage). If discrepancies arise, Arianespace’s official liftoff time will take precedence over secondary/tertiary reporting.\n\n- Resolution timing: The question will be resolved on the basis of liftoffs recorded within the window ending at 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. No early resolution prior to October 15, 2025; final resolution will occur on or after 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC based on the count as defined above.\n\nContextual examples for 2025 liftoffs already recorded:\n- VA263: March 6, 2025; first commercial Ariane 6 flight; liftoff 16:24 UTC; second Ariane 6 launch overall.\n- VA264: August 12, 2025 (local; 00:37 UTC on Aug 13); third Ariane 6 launch; second commercial flight.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40677, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763635398.672075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763635398.672075, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7225113636363637 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 3.0, 4.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of the status quo (as of 2025-09-30):\n- Ariane 6 conducted the VA263 mission on March 6, 2025. This was Ariane 6’s first commercial flight and the second Ariane 6 launch overall, lifting off at 13:24 local time in Kourou (16:24 UTC). Payload: CSO-3 Earth observation satellite.\n- Ariane 6 conducted the VA264 mission on August 12, 2025 (local), placing EUMETSAT’s Metop‑SG‑A1 into orbit; UTC liftoff time was 00:37 on August 13, 2025. This was the third Ariane 6 launch and its second commercial flight.\n- As of September 18, 2025, Arianespace stated it had conducted two Ariane 6 launches in 2025 and expected to perform two more before year’s end (for a total of four), which would be below earlier projections of five. Earlier in the year (Feb 11, 2025), Arianespace said it targeted five Ariane 6 launches in 2025, primarily in the second half of the year.\n\nWhat Ariane 6 is: Ariane 6 is Europe’s current heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle operated by Arianespace, launching from the ELA‑4 pad at Europe’s Spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana. For general reference, see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariane_6 (link provided for definition; not used as a resolution source).\n\nWhy this question is interesting now: As of late September 2025, two Ariane 6 launches have occurred in 2025 with a publicly signaled goal of ending the year at four. Whether the ramp-up achieves four launches depends on vehicle readiness, range availability, payload readiness, and program priorities, and remains meaningfully uncertain.\n\nWhere resolution information will come from: Arianespace routinely publishes per-mission press releases and mission pages that include official liftoff timestamps (e.g., VA263 and VA264 pages). ESA also maintains an official page listing launches from Europe’s Spaceport with links to ESA liftoff write-ups, which can be used for cross-checking. Reputable industry media (e.g., SpaceNews) also report liftoff events and schedules and can serve as tertiary corroboration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"7af07daa14ad7bfe\"}}`" }, { "id": 40676, "title": "As of 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, is TikTok available for download in both the U.S. Apple App Store and Google Play?", "short_title": "As of 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, is TikTok available for download in both the U.S. Apple App St", "url_title": "As of 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, is TikTok available for download in both the U.S. Apple App St", "slug": "as-of-1200-utc-on-december-31-2025-is-tiktok-available-for-download-in-both-the-us-apple-app-st", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.979208Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T09:12:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T10:43:00.182079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:23.214157Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:42:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:42:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T09:12:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40272, "title": "As of 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025, is TikTok available for download in both the U.S. Apple App Store and Google Play?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.979627Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T09:12:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T10:42:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T10:42:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:42:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:42:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of September 30, 2025: TikTok is a short‑form video platform owned by ByteDance; the app is distributed via Apple’s App Store (iOS) and Google Play (Android) [Wikipedia links provided below]. In January–February 2025, U.S. availability was disrupted and then restored amid evolving federal actions. A divest‑or‑ban statute took effect on January 19, 2025, leading to a brief service suspension and removal from U.S. app stores. On January 20, 2025, an executive order delayed enforcement for 75 days and directed that Apple and Google would not face liability during the delay; on February 13–14, 2025, TikTok’s listings were restored to the U.S. App Store and Google Play. As of late September 2025, the app remains available in the U.S., with enforcement having been repeatedly delayed through the year.\n\nOfficial store identifiers to be used for resolution:\n- Apple App Store (U.S. storefront): “TikTok – Videos, Shop & LIVE” with App Store ID 835599320; developer/publisher shown as “TikTok Ltd.” on the listing.\n- Google Play (Android): “TikTok – Videos, Shop & LIVE” at package id com.zhiliaoapp.musically; developer shown as “TikTok Pte. Ltd.” on the listing.\n\nDefinitions (for clarity and unambiguous resolution):\n- “Apple App Store” refers to Apple’s official digital distribution platform for iOS/iPadOS applications. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/App_Store_(iOS).\n- “Google Play” refers to Google’s official Android app store. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Play.\n- “U.S. Apple App Store” means the App Store storefront for the United States (Apple ID country/region set to United States; web listing accessible at the /us/ region URL).\n- “Google Play (U.S.)” means the Google Play listing as accessed from a U.S. geolocation or account country set to United States; on the web, U.S. availability is indicated by the absence of a country‑unavailable notice.\n- “Available for download” means the store listing is present and offers the standard action to obtain the app for a typical consumer device (iOS: “Get”, Android: “Install”), without a store‑level message indicating unavailability in the country/region. Age ratings or parental‑control requirements do not, by themselves, render an app “unavailable.” Enterprise/TestFlight builds, APK side‑loads, and “Lite” variants do not count.\n- “TikTok app” for this question means the primary consumer TikTok app corresponding to the identifiers above (App Store ID 835599320; Google Play package com.zhiliaoapp.musically). Other variants (e.g., “Lite”) or clones do not count.\n\nStatus quo and recent timeline (for forecasters):\n- Jan 19, 2025: U.S. ban took effect; TikTok briefly went dark and its app was removed from U.S. stores.\n- Jan 20, 2025: Executive order delayed enforcement for 75 days and instructed the Attorney General not to enforce the law; letters to Apple and Google indicated no liability during the period.\n- Feb 13–14, 2025: Apple and Google restored TikTok to U.S. app stores; TikTok issued an official statement noting U.S. availability on both stores.\n- Through September 2025: Enforcement has been repeatedly delayed; as of late September, TikTok remains downloadable in U.S. app stores.\n\nWhy uncertainty remains: Future enforcement actions, court rulings, or policy changes could cause removal or restriction. Conversely, continued delays or a transaction could preserve availability. These dynamics make the year‑end state non‑trivial to forecast.\n\nHelpful links (term definitions and direct store pages):\n- Apple App Store: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/App_Store_(iOS)\n- Google Play: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Play\n- TikTok on Apple App Store (U.S.): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tiktok/id835599320 \n- TikTok on Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.zhiliaoapp.musically\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"a80678e225665e4a\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the app store state observed precisely at 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025.\n\nMethod:\n- Use a U.S. storefront or geolocation for both checks.\n - Apple: Access https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tiktok/id835599320. It counts as “available for download” if the listing is present and shows the standard “Get”/download action without a message indicating unavailability in the United States.\n - Google Play: Access https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.zhiliaoapp.musically from a U.S. geolocation or account set to United States. It counts as “available for download” if the page is accessible and shows “Install” (or equivalent) without a notice that the item isn’t available in the country.\n\nResolution:\n- YES if both stores meet the “available for download” condition at the resolution time.\n- NO otherwise (including if either listing is missing, shows country/region unavailability, or only non‑consumer distribution is possible).\n\nEvidence: Primary evidence should be the live store listings at the specified URLs, captured at the resolution time (screenshots acceptable). If the store pages are inaccessible, rely on contemporaneous reporting from credible outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, CNN, The Verge) stating whether the app is available or unavailable in U.S. app stores at that time.\n\nEdge cases:\n- Age gating, parental controls, or device incompatibility for a particular device do not negate availability.\n- Availability of a “Lite” or alternate package/cloned app does not count for YES.\n- Prior installations/updates for existing users do not affect resolution; this is strictly about store availability at the specified time.\n\nTime zone and date bounds:\n- Resolution moment: 12:00 UTC on December 31, 2025.\n- The question pertains to the state at that exact time; events before or after do not affect resolution.\n\nCitations supporting background and identifiers: Reuters restoration and delay coverage ; TikTok newsroom statement on restored availability ; Wikipedia summary of January–June–September delay timeline ; The Verge status‑quo page indicating late‑September availability ; App Store and Google Play listing details.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40676, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763632732.000021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763632732.000021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.785931034482759 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 17.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 16.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of September 30, 2025: TikTok is a short‑form video platform owned by ByteDance; the app is distributed via Apple’s App Store (iOS) and Google Play (Android) [Wikipedia links provided below]. In January–February 2025, U.S. availability was disrupted and then restored amid evolving federal actions. A divest‑or‑ban statute took effect on January 19, 2025, leading to a brief service suspension and removal from U.S. app stores. On January 20, 2025, an executive order delayed enforcement for 75 days and directed that Apple and Google would not face liability during the delay; on February 13–14, 2025, TikTok’s listings were restored to the U.S. App Store and Google Play. As of late September 2025, the app remains available in the U.S., with enforcement having been repeatedly delayed through the year.\n\nOfficial store identifiers to be used for resolution:\n- Apple App Store (U.S. storefront): “TikTok – Videos, Shop & LIVE” with App Store ID 835599320; developer/publisher shown as “TikTok Ltd.” on the listing.\n- Google Play (Android): “TikTok – Videos, Shop & LIVE” at package id com.zhiliaoapp.musically; developer shown as “TikTok Pte. Ltd.” on the listing.\n\nDefinitions (for clarity and unambiguous resolution):\n- “Apple App Store” refers to Apple’s official digital distribution platform for iOS/iPadOS applications. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/App_Store_(iOS).\n- “Google Play” refers to Google’s official Android app store. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Play.\n- “U.S. Apple App Store” means the App Store storefront for the United States (Apple ID country/region set to United States; web listing accessible at the /us/ region URL).\n- “Google Play (U.S.)” means the Google Play listing as accessed from a U.S. geolocation or account country set to United States; on the web, U.S. availability is indicated by the absence of a country‑unavailable notice.\n- “Available for download” means the store listing is present and offers the standard action to obtain the app for a typical consumer device (iOS: “Get”, Android: “Install”), without a store‑level message indicating unavailability in the country/region. Age ratings or parental‑control requirements do not, by themselves, render an app “unavailable.” Enterprise/TestFlight builds, APK side‑loads, and “Lite” variants do not count.\n- “TikTok app” for this question means the primary consumer TikTok app corresponding to the identifiers above (App Store ID 835599320; Google Play package com.zhiliaoapp.musically). Other variants (e.g., “Lite”) or clones do not count.\n\nStatus quo and recent timeline (for forecasters):\n- Jan 19, 2025: U.S. ban took effect; TikTok briefly went dark and its app was removed from U.S. stores.\n- Jan 20, 2025: Executive order delayed enforcement for 75 days and instructed the Attorney General not to enforce the law; letters to Apple and Google indicated no liability during the period.\n- Feb 13–14, 2025: Apple and Google restored TikTok to U.S. app stores; TikTok issued an official statement noting U.S. availability on both stores.\n- Through September 2025: Enforcement has been repeatedly delayed; as of late September, TikTok remains downloadable in U.S. app stores.\n\nWhy uncertainty remains: Future enforcement actions, court rulings, or policy changes could cause removal or restriction. Conversely, continued delays or a transaction could preserve availability. These dynamics make the year‑end state non‑trivial to forecast.\n\nHelpful links (term definitions and direct store pages):\n- Apple App Store: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/App_Store_(iOS)\n- Google Play: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Play\n- TikTok on Apple App Store (U.S.): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/tiktok/id835599320 \n- TikTok on Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.zhiliaoapp.musically\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"a80678e225665e4a\"}}`" }, { "id": 40675, "title": "Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31", "url_title": "Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31", "slug": "will-any-north-atlantic-hurricane-reach-category-4-or-5-intensity-between-2025-10-15-and-2025-12-31", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.454977Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T08:52:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T10:23:00.166665Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.781457Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:22:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:22:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T08:52:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40271, "title": "Will any North Atlantic hurricane reach Category 4 or 5 intensity between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.455400Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T08:52:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T10:22:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T10:22:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:22:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T10:22:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context and definitions a forecaster should know as of 2025-09-30:\n- What counts as Category 4/5 and how intensity is measured: The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) rates hurricanes 1–5 based solely on a hurricane’s maximum sustained 1-minute surface wind at 10 meters in unobstructed exposure. Category 4 corresponds to 130–156 mph (113–136 kt; 209–251 km/h) and Category 5 is ≥157 mph (≥137 kt; ≥252 km/h). NHC defines “maximum sustained surface wind” as the highest one-minute average wind at 10 m at a given time and uses this as the standard measure of a tropical cyclone’s intensity.\n- Where the official, operational intensity values are published: NHC Public Advisories (TCP) include a “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS” line in the “SUMMARY OF … INFORMATION” section that gives the current maximum sustained winds at the advisory time. NHC Forecast/Advisories (TCM) likewise provide the “maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed” representing current intensity along with wind radii information. The complete operational advisory sets for 2025 are available in the NHC 2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive (choose Atlantic basin on that page).\n- Basin and season timing: The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1–November 30; in NHC usage, “hurricane” refers to a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds ≥64 kt (≥74 mph) in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico sector overseen by NHC.\n- 2025 season outlook and status (as of 2025-09-30): NOAA’s official seasonal outlook (May 22, 2025) called for an above-normal Atlantic season with 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major (Category 3–5) hurricanes. As of 03 UTC on September 30, 2025, NHC’s 2025 North Atlantic summary listed 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes to date.\n\nWhy this question is informative now: The late-season window (mid-October through December) sometimes still supports high-intensity hurricanes, but not uniformly every year. The outcome remains uncertain and depends on contemporaneous basin conditions (SSTs, shear, synoptic patterns) that forecasters can analyze using current data while relying on the clearly defined SSHWS thresholds and NHC operational advisories for resolution.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"b01206b6d8ba1d20\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Binary resolution (Yes/No), using NHC operational advisories only. The assessment window is inclusive of both endpoints and in UTC.\n\nTime window:\n- Start: 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC\n- End: 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC\n\nOperational definitions (with authoritative sources):\n- Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface wind (U.S. 1-minute average at 10 m) of at least 64 kt (74 mph) in the Atlantic basin.\n- Maximum sustained surface wind: Highest one-minute average wind at 10 m with unobstructed exposure at the time indicated.\n- Category 4 (SSHWS): 130–156 mph (113–136 kt) maximum sustained wind. Category 5 (SSHWS): ≥157 mph (≥137 kt) maximum sustained wind.\n\nEligible sources of truth:\n- NHC 2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive for the Atlantic basin: operational Public Advisories (TCP) and/or Forecast/Advisories (TCM). These advisories include the current maximum sustained winds at the advisory’s indicated time.\n\nWhat counts (the test to resolve YES):\n- There exists at least one NHC operational advisory (TCP or TCM) for any Atlantic-basin tropical cyclone, with an advisory time stamp between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC inclusive, that:\n 1) shows the system classified operationally as a hurricane at that time (e.g., header line “HURRICANE [Name] ADVISORY …” or equivalent hurricane classification within the advisory text) , and\n 2) reports a maximum sustained wind meeting SSHWS Category 4 or Category 5 thresholds at that time: either ≥130 mph (≥113 kt) and ≤156 mph (≤136 kt) for Category 4, or ≥157 mph (≥137 kt) for Category 5.\n\nWhat does not count:\n- Advisories where the system is subtropical, post-tropical/extratropical, or otherwise not classified as a hurricane at the advisory time (even if wind speeds are listed).\n- Post-season reanalyses or Tropical Cyclone Reports (TCRs); resolution is based strictly on operational advisories available by the end of the window.\n\nProcedure for resolution on 2025-12-31 (UTC):\n1) Navigate to the NHC 2025 Advisory Archive and select the Atlantic basin.\n2) For storms with advisories within the window, review the TCP and/or TCM text products at advisory times within the window. Confirm whether any advisory indicates the system is a hurricane and lists maximum sustained winds that meet SSHWS Category 4 or 5 thresholds at that time.\n3) If any qualifying advisory is found, resolve YES; otherwise resolve NO.\n\nNotes:\n- Units: Use either mph or kt as printed in the advisory; thresholds are provided for both. Do not infer category from impacts or surge; SSHWS is based solely on maximum sustained wind.\n- Timekeeping: Use the UTC advisory time shown in the advisory “SUMMARY OF … INFORMATION” block for TCP or the valid advisory time in TCM to determine whether it falls within the window.\n\nPrimary references (operational definitions and data source): SSHWS definition and thresholds ; NHC glossary definitions for “maximum sustained surface wind,” “hurricane,” and related terms ; NHC 2025 Advisory Archive (Atlantic basin) and product content descriptions. Secondary context: NOAA’s 2025 seasonal outlook ; NHC 2025 North Atlantic seasonal summary as of 2025-09-30.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40675, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763632994.882106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763632994.882106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.6815287356321839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 6.0, 3.0, 36.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context and definitions a forecaster should know as of 2025-09-30:\n- What counts as Category 4/5 and how intensity is measured: The Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) rates hurricanes 1–5 based solely on a hurricane’s maximum sustained 1-minute surface wind at 10 meters in unobstructed exposure. Category 4 corresponds to 130–156 mph (113–136 kt; 209–251 km/h) and Category 5 is ≥157 mph (≥137 kt; ≥252 km/h). NHC defines “maximum sustained surface wind” as the highest one-minute average wind at 10 m at a given time and uses this as the standard measure of a tropical cyclone’s intensity.\n- Where the official, operational intensity values are published: NHC Public Advisories (TCP) include a “MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS” line in the “SUMMARY OF … INFORMATION” section that gives the current maximum sustained winds at the advisory time. NHC Forecast/Advisories (TCM) likewise provide the “maximum sustained 1-minute wind speed” representing current intensity along with wind radii information. The complete operational advisory sets for 2025 are available in the NHC 2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive (choose Atlantic basin on that page).\n- Basin and season timing: The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1–November 30; in NHC usage, “hurricane” refers to a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds ≥64 kt (≥74 mph) in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico sector overseen by NHC.\n- 2025 season outlook and status (as of 2025-09-30): NOAA’s official seasonal outlook (May 22, 2025) called for an above-normal Atlantic season with 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major (Category 3–5) hurricanes. As of 03 UTC on September 30, 2025, NHC’s 2025 North Atlantic summary listed 9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes to date.\n\nWhy this question is informative now: The late-season window (mid-October through December) sometimes still supports high-intensity hurricanes, but not uniformly every year. The outcome remains uncertain and depends on contemporaneous basin conditions (SSTs, shear, synoptic patterns) that forecasters can analyze using current data while relying on the clearly defined SSHWS thresholds and NHC operational advisories for resolution.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"b01206b6d8ba1d20\"}}`" }, { "id": 40674, "title": "Will the EU open at least one accession negotiating cluster with Ukraine between 00:00 UTC on 15 October 2025 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025?", "short_title": "Will the EU open at least one accession negotiating cluster with Ukraine between 00:00 UTC on 15 Oct", "url_title": "Will the EU open at least one accession negotiating cluster with Ukraine between 00:00 UTC on 15 Oct", "slug": "will-the-eu-open-at-least-one-accession-negotiating-cluster-with-ukraine-between-0000-utc-on-15-oct", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.069416Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T05:42:52Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T07:13:00.169466Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.271592Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T07:12:52Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T07:12:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T05:42:52Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40270, "title": "Will the EU open at least one accession negotiating cluster with Ukraine between 00:00 UTC on 15 October 2025 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:22.069828Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T05:42:52Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T07:12:52Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T07:12:52Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T07:12:52Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T07:12:52Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 1 October 2025: Accession negotiations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine were formally opened at the first Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) at ministerial level on 25 June 2024, following the Council’s approval of the negotiating framework on 21 June 2024. Under the EU’s revised enlargement methodology, negotiating chapters are grouped into six thematic “negotiating clusters,” and the “Fundamentals” cluster is designed to open first and close last, with progress there guiding the overall pace of talks. The six clusters are: (1) Fundamentals; (2) Internal market; (3) Competitiveness & inclusive growth; (4) Green agenda & sustainable connectivity; (5) Resources, agriculture & cohesion; and (6) External relations. In practice, clusters open via formal accession conferences (IGCs) and Council-supervised procedures; the Council (in its General Affairs configuration) supervises enlargement and generally operates by unanimous agreement on enlargement-related decisions. As an example of how a cluster opening is publicly communicated, on 14 April 2025 the EU held an Accession Conference with Albania and announced “EU opens negotiations on the internal market cluster,” explicitly listing the cluster and its chapters in the official press release.\n\nKey definitions and links forecasters may need:\n- Negotiating cluster: a thematic grouping of negotiation chapters under the revised enlargement methodology; clusters open as a whole once opening benchmarks are met, and individual chapters within them are provisionally closed separately. Reference/overview: EU accession process clusters (European Commission PDF): https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/eu_accession_process_clusters%20%28oct%202022%29.pdf \n- Intergovernmental Conference (IGC)/Accession Conference: the formal meeting between EU member states and the candidate country at which accession negotiations are conducted and milestones (such as opening clusters) can be decided and announced; the first IGC with Ukraine took place on 25 June 2024 to open negotiations. Council’s role in enlargement and supervision of negotiations: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/how-enlargement-works/ \n- Example phrasing of a “cluster opening” in an official communication (for pattern matching when verifying resolution): “EU opens negotiations on the internal market cluster” (Accession Conference with Albania, 14 April 2025): https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/04/14/accession-conference-with-albania-eu-opens-negotiations-on-the-internal-market-cluster/ \n- Press release announcing the first IGC with Ukraine (illustrates the format/source to monitor): https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/25/eu-opens-accession-negotiations-with-ukraine/ \n\nProcess cues for forecasters:\n- The Fundamentals cluster is expected to open first under the revised methodology, and the Council supervises the process with unanimity generally required on enlargement matters, implying political dynamics among member states can affect the timing.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"27b657f3491534fe\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on official, time-stamped actions occurring between 00:00 UTC on 15 October 2025 and 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025 (inclusive).\n\nResolve YES if, during that period, at least one accession negotiating cluster with Ukraine is officially opened, evidenced by any one of the following primary sources:\n1) An official press release on consilium.europa.eu (Council of the EU/European Council) for an Intergovernmental/Accession Conference with Ukraine stating that the EU and Ukraine “open negotiations on” a specific cluster (e.g., “EU opens negotiations on the [Cluster name] cluster”), analogous in form to the Albania example. The first IGC press format for Ukraine is here for reference.\n2) An official Council document (e.g., EU Common Position or Council press release) published on consilium.europa.eu or its data portal explicitly stating that a specified cluster with Ukraine is opened.\n\nDefinitions and inclusions/exclusions for resolution:\n- “Accession negotiating cluster” refers to one of the six thematic groupings under the revised enlargement methodology: Fundamentals; Internal market; Competitiveness & inclusive growth; Green agenda & sustainable connectivity; Resources, agriculture & cohesion; External relations. A “cluster” is counted as opened only when negotiations on the cluster as a whole are officially declared open in an eligible source during the period.\n- “Intergovernmental Conference (IGC)”/“Accession Conference” refers to the formal meetings at which accession negotiations proceed and are publicly communicated by the Council; official Council press releases for these conferences constitute valid evidence.\n- Timezone: All times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).\n- Start date: 00:00 UTC on 15 October 2025. End date: 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025.\n\nExclusions:\n- Announcements of intent, proposals, or statements that a cluster is “ready” or “recommended” to open do not count unless they explicitly state that negotiations on a named cluster are opened.\n- Technical steps such as completing screening, adopting roadmaps/benchmarks, or opening/closing individual chapters without an explicit statement that the cluster is opened do not count.\n- Press reports without corroborating official Council/IGC documentation do not count by themselves; however, if consilium.europa.eu is temporarily inaccessible, credible wire services (e.g., Reuters, AP, AFP) contemporaneously reporting on the official EU action may be used as a backup to determine resolution.\n\nIf by 23:59 UTC on 31 December 2025 no eligible source shows that any negotiating cluster with Ukraine has been opened during the period, resolve NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40674, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763620280.204618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.322 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763620280.204618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.322 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2518674242424241 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 25.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 9.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 1 October 2025: Accession negotiations between the European Union (EU) and Ukraine were formally opened at the first Intergovernmental Conference (IGC) at ministerial level on 25 June 2024, following the Council’s approval of the negotiating framework on 21 June 2024. Under the EU’s revised enlargement methodology, negotiating chapters are grouped into six thematic “negotiating clusters,” and the “Fundamentals” cluster is designed to open first and close last, with progress there guiding the overall pace of talks. The six clusters are: (1) Fundamentals; (2) Internal market; (3) Competitiveness & inclusive growth; (4) Green agenda & sustainable connectivity; (5) Resources, agriculture & cohesion; and (6) External relations. In practice, clusters open via formal accession conferences (IGCs) and Council-supervised procedures; the Council (in its General Affairs configuration) supervises enlargement and generally operates by unanimous agreement on enlargement-related decisions. As an example of how a cluster opening is publicly communicated, on 14 April 2025 the EU held an Accession Conference with Albania and announced “EU opens negotiations on the internal market cluster,” explicitly listing the cluster and its chapters in the official press release.\n\nKey definitions and links forecasters may need:\n- Negotiating cluster: a thematic grouping of negotiation chapters under the revised enlargement methodology; clusters open as a whole once opening benchmarks are met, and individual chapters within them are provisionally closed separately. Reference/overview: EU accession process clusters (European Commission PDF): https://enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/eu_accession_process_clusters%20%28oct%202022%29.pdf \n- Intergovernmental Conference (IGC)/Accession Conference: the formal meeting between EU member states and the candidate country at which accession negotiations are conducted and milestones (such as opening clusters) can be decided and announced; the first IGC with Ukraine took place on 25 June 2024 to open negotiations. Council’s role in enlargement and supervision of negotiations: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/how-enlargement-works/ \n- Example phrasing of a “cluster opening” in an official communication (for pattern matching when verifying resolution): “EU opens negotiations on the internal market cluster” (Accession Conference with Albania, 14 April 2025): https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2025/04/14/accession-conference-with-albania-eu-opens-negotiations-on-the-internal-market-cluster/ \n- Press release announcing the first IGC with Ukraine (illustrates the format/source to monitor): https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2024/06/25/eu-opens-accession-negotiations-with-ukraine/ \n\nProcess cues for forecasters:\n- The Fundamentals cluster is expected to open first under the revised methodology, and the Council supervises the process with unanimity generally required on enlargement matters, implying political dynamics among member states can affect the timing.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"27b657f3491534fe\"}}`" }, { "id": 40673, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC Oct 15 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025, will at least three additional UN member states formally recognize the State of Palestine?", "short_title": "Between 00:00 UTC Oct 15 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025, will at least three additional UN member states", "url_title": "Between 00:00 UTC Oct 15 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025, will at least three additional UN member states", "slug": "between-0000-utc-oct-15-and-2359-utc-dec-31-2025-will-at-least-three-additional-un-member-states", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.664875Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T04:10:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T05:41:00.224666Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.878462Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T05:40:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T05:40:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T04:10:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40269, "title": "Between 00:00 UTC Oct 15 and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025, will at least three additional UN member states formally recognize the State of Palestine?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.665276Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T04:10:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T05:40:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T05:40:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T05:40:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T05:40:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: • As of September 2025, the State of Palestine is recognized by 157 UN member states. • A notable wave of recognitions occurred around the eightieth session of the UN General Assembly in late September 2025, including first-time recognitions by major Western countries. Official government sources confirm: — Canada recognized the State of Palestine on September 21, 2025. — The United Kingdom formally recognized the State of Palestine (announcement published Sept 21–22, 2025). — France recognized the State of Palestine on September 22, 2025. • Additional European microstates and EU countries reported recognitions around the same period, including Portugal, Monaco, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra (and some coverage also mentions Australia and San Marino), contributing to the increase in the recognized count to 157 by late September 2025. • Palestine has had UN “non-member observer state” status since 2012, which some sources describe as de facto recognition of sovereignty in the UN context. What forecasters should consider: • Domestic political dynamics and legal procedures within candidate states (e.g., whether executive recognition requires or follows a parliamentary vote). • Regional blocs’ positions and diplomatic signaling (e.g., EU member states that have not yet recognized; NATO or G20 members’ stances; influence from ongoing developments in Israel–Palestine). • Whether the late-September momentum persists into Q4 2025, leading to additional formal recognitions. Definitions and links for clarity: • UN member state: A sovereign state that is a member of the United Nations. List and details are maintained by the UN (“Member States | United Nations”): https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states • Formal recognition of the State of Palestine: For the purposes of this question, an explicit declaration by a UN member state’s national government that it “recognizes the State of Palestine” (or equivalent wording indicating recognition of Palestinian statehood). Examples of acceptable phrasing and sources are provided below under Resolution Criteria. Baseline and scope: • “Additional” means first-time recognitions occurring within the eligible window by countries that had not recognized the State of Palestine as of 23:59 UTC on Oct 14, 2025. • Reaffirmations, reiterations, or restatements of prior recognition do not count.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"0b9376c072b419f2\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Outcome: Resolve Yes if three (3) or more UN member states that had not previously recognized the State of Palestine as of 23:59 UTC on Oct 14, 2025, formally recognize the State of Palestine between 00:00 UTC Oct 15, 2025, and 23:59 UTC Dec 31, 2025. Otherwise resolve No. Key definitions and evidentiary standard: • Recognition event: A recognition counts if, within the eligible window, there is a public, official act by the country’s national executive authority (e.g., head of state, head of government, foreign ministry), or an official legal instrument (e.g., official gazette), explicitly declaring recognition of “the State of Palestine” (or equivalent phrasing such as “recognizes Palestine as a sovereign state”). • Acceptable primary sources: — Official government websites (e.g., prime minister/president/foreign ministry sites) publishing a statement or press release that explicitly states recognition (illustrative examples: Canada PMO statement on Sep 21, 2025 ; UK government news release on recognition ; French presidential/foreign ministry speech stating recognition ). — Official UN press releases or UN documentation clearly and unambiguously stating that the country has recognized the State of Palestine during the eligible window (e.g., a press release from the UN Secretariat or relevant UN body explicitly recording the recognition). • Secondary sources for verification (only if primary sources are unavailable for a specific event or there is minor ambiguity): — Reputable international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC, AFP) reporting on an official government recognition that occurred within the eligible window. — As a final tiebreaker in cases of persistent ambiguity, the Wikipedia page “International recognition of Palestine” as it existed at 23:59 UTC on Dec 31, 2025 (use page history or an archived snapshot). If the page records the recognition event and cites credible primary sources, it may be used to resolve the ambiguity. Counting rules and exclusions: • Count one (1) per recognizing UN member state. • The recognition must be first-time; prior recognitions (even if restated) do not count. • Statements of intent (e.g., “will recognize” or conditional recognitions) do not count unless a follow-up official act within the window explicitly states that recognition has taken place. • Parliamentary resolutions alone do not count unless they are accompanied by, or trigger, an official executive recognition during the window and the executive issues an explicit recognition statement. • Diplomatic upgrades (e.g., opening or renaming missions) do not count unless the accompanying official statement explicitly frames the action as recognition of Palestinian statehood. • Recognitions by non-UN member states, subnational entities, international organizations, or de facto authorities do not count. • If an apparent recognition is denied or contradicted by the recognizing government within 72 hours, it does not count unless a later clarifying official document within the window explicitly confirms recognition. Practical resolution steps: 1) On or after Jan 1, 2026, review official government portals of candidate states and UN press releases for Q4 2025 to identify explicit recognition statements within the window. 2) Cross-check with at least one secondary source if needed (e.g., Reuters/AP/BBC/AFP). 3) In cases of ambiguity, consult the Dec 31, 2025 23:59 UTC version of the “International recognition of Palestine” Wikipedia page and its citations. Notes on baseline context used in this question: • Recognized count at 157 and the late-September recognitions by major Western countries (Canada, UK, France) as well as several European states/microstates are documented in reputable sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40673, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763615583.042263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763615583.042263, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2851363636363638 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of Oct 1, 2025: • As of September 2025, the State of Palestine is recognized by 157 UN member states. • A notable wave of recognitions occurred around the eightieth session of the UN General Assembly in late September 2025, including first-time recognitions by major Western countries. Official government sources confirm: — Canada recognized the State of Palestine on September 21, 2025. — The United Kingdom formally recognized the State of Palestine (announcement published Sept 21–22, 2025). — France recognized the State of Palestine on September 22, 2025. • Additional European microstates and EU countries reported recognitions around the same period, including Portugal, Monaco, Luxembourg, Malta, Andorra (and some coverage also mentions Australia and San Marino), contributing to the increase in the recognized count to 157 by late September 2025. • Palestine has had UN “non-member observer state” status since 2012, which some sources describe as de facto recognition of sovereignty in the UN context. What forecasters should consider: • Domestic political dynamics and legal procedures within candidate states (e.g., whether executive recognition requires or follows a parliamentary vote). • Regional blocs’ positions and diplomatic signaling (e.g., EU member states that have not yet recognized; NATO or G20 members’ stances; influence from ongoing developments in Israel–Palestine). • Whether the late-September momentum persists into Q4 2025, leading to additional formal recognitions. Definitions and links for clarity: • UN member state: A sovereign state that is a member of the United Nations. List and details are maintained by the UN (“Member States | United Nations”): https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states • Formal recognition of the State of Palestine: For the purposes of this question, an explicit declaration by a UN member state’s national government that it “recognizes the State of Palestine” (or equivalent wording indicating recognition of Palestinian statehood). Examples of acceptable phrasing and sources are provided below under Resolution Criteria. Baseline and scope: • “Additional” means first-time recognitions occurring within the eligible window by countries that had not recognized the State of Palestine as of 23:59 UTC on Oct 14, 2025. • Reaffirmations, reiterations, or restatements of prior recognition do not count.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"0b9376c072b419f2\"}}`" }, { "id": 40672, "title": "Will Cuba experience at least one nationwide electricity blackout (total disconnection of the national grid) between October 15, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?", "short_title": "Will Cuba experience at least one nationwide electricity blackout (total disconnection of the nation", "url_title": "Will Cuba experience at least one nationwide electricity blackout (total disconnection of the nation", "slug": "will-cuba-experience-at-least-one-nationwide-electricity-blackout-total-disconnection-of-the-nation", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.277076Z", "published_at": "2025-11-20T00:34:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-20T02:05:00.170900Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.483302Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T02:04:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T02:04:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-20T00:34:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40268, "title": "Will Cuba experience at least one nationwide electricity blackout (total disconnection of the national grid) between October 15, 2025 and December 31, 2025 (UTC)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.277667Z", "open_time": "2025-11-20T00:34:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-20T02:04:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-20T02:04:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-20T02:04:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-20T02:04:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Definitions and context as of 2025-10-01:\n\n- Cuba’s national electric grid is referred to officially as the Sistema Electroenergético Nacional (SEN), managed by Unión Eléctrica (UNE) under the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM). Official communications use terms such as “apagón total (0 MW)” and “desconexión total del SEN” to describe a nationwide, total grid failure.\n- On September 10, 2025, Cuba experienced an island-wide outage. Reuters reported that authorities and the National Electric Union described a “total disconnection of the Electric System,” with power slowly returning by evening; they noted this was among multiple nationwide blackouts since late 2024. The Guardian characterized the September 10 event as the fifth nationwide blackout in less than a year, affecting around 10 million people. AP described the September 10 event as an island-wide “total blackout,” acknowledged by the Ministry of Energy and Mines, and discussed causes including aging infrastructure and fuel shortages. UNE’s own recovery update stated the country went from “apagón total (0 MW)” to ~1000 MW generation in less than 24 hours on September 11, 2025.\n- MINEM maintains official daily status posts (“Situación del SEN”), which serve as authoritative updates on generation, demand, and outages.\n\nWhy this question has forecasting entropy:\n- Cuba has experienced several nationwide grid failures since late 2024; the system is fragile, but whether another island-wide “total disconnection” occurs in Q4 2025 is uncertain. Multiple credible sources report repeated total outages, but there is no certainty of further events in the specified window.\n\nKey term definitions (for this question):\n- “Nationwide electricity blackout” means a total disconnection of the SEN (“apagón total”/“desconexión total”), evidenced by national generation falling to 0 MW, per official UNE/MINEM communication.\n- “Official communication” means posts or notices published on UNE’s official website (e.g., status updates) or MINEM’s official portals carrying authoritative system status (SEN) language.\n- Timeframe: Events must begin between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nStatus quo baseline to inform forecasting:\n- Recent history indicates repeated nationwide grid collapses, including on 2025-09-10, with official references to “total disconnection” and “apagón total (0 MW)”. This supports plausibility but not certainty of another nationwide blackout within the specified window.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"df262bb4d2c00040\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "- Start date/time and end date/time: Eligible events must begin between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n- Event definition (what counts): A “nationwide electricity blackout” shall be deemed to have occurred if Cuba’s national electric system (SEN) experiences a total disconnection (“apagón total”/“desconexión total”), evidenced by national generation falling to 0 MW, as stated in an official communication by Unión Eléctrica (UNE) or the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM).\n- Primary resolution source: Official UNE or MINEM communications that explicitly state a total disconnection of the SEN or “apagón total (0 MW).” Examples of acceptable formats include UNE status updates analogous to “ACTUALIZACIÓN RESTABLECIMIENTO DEL SEN” and MINEM’s “Situación del SEN” posts.\n- Secondary confirmation (if primary is unavailable or ambiguous): At least two credible, independent international outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, The Guardian) reporting that Cuba suffered a “nationwide blackout” or “total disconnection of the electric system” during the timeframe, ideally citing official statements. Acceptable examples of such reporting include Reuters, AP, and The Guardian coverage of the September 10, 2025 event.\n- Inclusions and exclusions:\n - Include: A single total disconnection event meets the criteria; partial or regional outages do not count unless the national system is totally disconnected.\n - Exclude: Routine load shedding, rotating outages, or regional blackouts that do not constitute a nationwide total disconnection.\n- Resolution: Resolve “Yes” if at least one qualifying nationwide blackout begins within the timeframe. Resolve “No” otherwise.\n- Verification notes: The resolver should first check UNE/MINEM official pages for any posts explicitly declaring a total disconnection (“apagón total,” 0 MW). If not found or ambiguous, corroborate via at least two credible international reports as described above.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40672, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763604016.451776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763604016.451776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.5420117647058822 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 9.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Definitions and context as of 2025-10-01:\n\n- Cuba’s national electric grid is referred to officially as the Sistema Electroenergético Nacional (SEN), managed by Unión Eléctrica (UNE) under the Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM). Official communications use terms such as “apagón total (0 MW)” and “desconexión total del SEN” to describe a nationwide, total grid failure.\n- On September 10, 2025, Cuba experienced an island-wide outage. Reuters reported that authorities and the National Electric Union described a “total disconnection of the Electric System,” with power slowly returning by evening; they noted this was among multiple nationwide blackouts since late 2024. The Guardian characterized the September 10 event as the fifth nationwide blackout in less than a year, affecting around 10 million people. AP described the September 10 event as an island-wide “total blackout,” acknowledged by the Ministry of Energy and Mines, and discussed causes including aging infrastructure and fuel shortages. UNE’s own recovery update stated the country went from “apagón total (0 MW)” to ~1000 MW generation in less than 24 hours on September 11, 2025.\n- MINEM maintains official daily status posts (“Situación del SEN”), which serve as authoritative updates on generation, demand, and outages.\n\nWhy this question has forecasting entropy:\n- Cuba has experienced several nationwide grid failures since late 2024; the system is fragile, but whether another island-wide “total disconnection” occurs in Q4 2025 is uncertain. Multiple credible sources report repeated total outages, but there is no certainty of further events in the specified window.\n\nKey term definitions (for this question):\n- “Nationwide electricity blackout” means a total disconnection of the SEN (“apagón total”/“desconexión total”), evidenced by national generation falling to 0 MW, per official UNE/MINEM communication.\n- “Official communication” means posts or notices published on UNE’s official website (e.g., status updates) or MINEM’s official portals carrying authoritative system status (SEN) language.\n- Timeframe: Events must begin between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 UTC and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 UTC.\n\nStatus quo baseline to inform forecasting:\n- Recent history indicates repeated nationwide grid collapses, including on 2025-09-10, with official references to “total disconnection” and “apagón total (0 MW)”. This supports plausibility but not certainty of another nationwide blackout within the specified window.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"df262bb4d2c00040\"}}`" }, { "id": 40671, "title": "Will the National Hurricane Center’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” list at least 15 named storms as of 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the National Hurricane Center’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” list at least 15 named storms as", "url_title": "Will the National Hurricane Center’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” list at least 15 named storms as", "slug": "will-the-national-hurricane-centers-2025-north-atlantic-summary-list-at-least-15-named-storms-as", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.907108Z", "published_at": "2025-11-19T22:10:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T23:41:00.215102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:21.103347Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T23:40:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T23:40:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-19T22:10:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40267, "title": "Will the National Hurricane Center’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” list at least 15 named storms as of 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.907504Z", "open_time": "2025-11-19T22:10:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T23:40:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T23:40:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T23:40:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T23:40:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- NOAA’s preseason outlook (May 22, 2025) projected 13–19 named storms for the Atlantic basin, with 6–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes. NOAA’s August 7 update adjusted the range to 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes.\n- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains an official season summary page (“2025 North Atlantic Summary”) under its Tropical Cyclone Reports and Season Summary site. That page displays a table with an explicit timestamp in the header (e.g., “2025 North Atlantic Summary as of 03 UTC 30 September 2025”) and includes a “Named Storms” count. As of late September, the NHC summary showed 9 named storms, corroborated by the NHC 2025 advisory archive listing Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Imelda.\n- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30; activity after Nov 30 is considered off-season, though NHC may still name cyclones if they form.\nDefinitions and scope:\n- Named storm: Any tropical storm, hurricane, or subtropical storm to which NHC has assigned an official name (tropical depressions are not named; “Potential Tropical Cyclone” advisories do not constitute named systems). NHC defines tropical storms as tropical cyclones with maximum sustained 1-minute winds of 34–63 kt and subtropical storms as subtropical cyclones with maximum sustained 1-minute winds ≥34 kt. Naming in the Atlantic is governed by lists maintained via the World Meteorological Organization; NHC explains the naming system and lists for the Atlantic (which cover the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico).\n- Atlantic basin (for this question): The North Atlantic basin as treated by NHC’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” and 2025 advisory archive, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico within NHC’s Atlantic naming conventions.\nWhy this threshold: With 9 named storms by Sept 30 and NOAA’s updated outlook in the mid-teens, whether the count reaches 15 by Nov 30 remains uncertain and depends on late-season activity, providing non-trivial forecasting entropy.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"590f180314c42c2a\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Outcome: YES if the NHC “2025 North Atlantic Summary” lists 15 or more named storms as of 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2025; NO otherwise.\nPrimary resolution source:\n- NHC “2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season” page: the section titled “2025 North Atlantic Summary” with its header timestamp (e.g., “as of [time] [date]”). Use the Named Storms count shown there as the authoritative value.\nMeasurement timing:\n- Check the page between 00:00 and 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2025. Use the Named Storms count corresponding to the “as of” timestamp closest to, but not later than, 23:59 UTC on November 30, 2025.\nDefinitions applied in resolution:\n- “Named storms” include tropical storms, hurricanes, and subtropical storms officially named by NHC; tropical depressions and “Potential Tropical Cyclone” advisories are excluded.\nFallback resolution (if the summary page is unavailable or lacks a clear count at the time of resolution):\n- Use the NHC “2025 Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive” index to count Atlantic named storms listed there up to and including those with first advisories issued on/before 23:59 UTC November 30, 2025. This page groups Atlantic storms distinctly, allowing a straightforward count. If both sources are available and disagree, prefer the Named Storms count on the “2025 North Atlantic Summary” page.\nScope and basin:\n- Only NHC’s Atlantic basin storms (North Atlantic, including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) are counted; Eastern/Central Pacific cyclones are excluded by basin classification in NHC products.\nPost-analysis changes:\n- Any NHC post-season reanalysis updates after 23:59 UTC November 30, 2025 do not affect resolution; the outcome is fixed based on the count displayed as of the time window above.\nResolution window:\n- Resolve by reading the source(s) on December 1, 2025. If necessary due to access issues, resolve no later than December 31, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40671, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763592419.809249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763592419.809249, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.20039534883720928 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Context as of 2025-09-30:\n- NOAA’s preseason outlook (May 22, 2025) projected 13–19 named storms for the Atlantic basin, with 6–10 hurricanes and 3–5 major hurricanes. NOAA’s August 7 update adjusted the range to 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes.\n- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains an official season summary page (“2025 North Atlantic Summary”) under its Tropical Cyclone Reports and Season Summary site. That page displays a table with an explicit timestamp in the header (e.g., “2025 North Atlantic Summary as of 03 UTC 30 September 2025”) and includes a “Named Storms” count. As of late September, the NHC summary showed 9 named storms, corroborated by the NHC 2025 advisory archive listing Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, and Imelda.\n- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30; activity after Nov 30 is considered off-season, though NHC may still name cyclones if they form.\nDefinitions and scope:\n- Named storm: Any tropical storm, hurricane, or subtropical storm to which NHC has assigned an official name (tropical depressions are not named; “Potential Tropical Cyclone” advisories do not constitute named systems). NHC defines tropical storms as tropical cyclones with maximum sustained 1-minute winds of 34–63 kt and subtropical storms as subtropical cyclones with maximum sustained 1-minute winds ≥34 kt. Naming in the Atlantic is governed by lists maintained via the World Meteorological Organization; NHC explains the naming system and lists for the Atlantic (which cover the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico).\n- Atlantic basin (for this question): The North Atlantic basin as treated by NHC’s “2025 North Atlantic Summary” and 2025 advisory archive, which includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico within NHC’s Atlantic naming conventions.\nWhy this threshold: With 9 named storms by Sept 30 and NOAA’s updated outlook in the mid-teens, whether the count reaches 15 by Nov 30 remains uncertain and depends on late-season activity, providing non-trivial forecasting entropy.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"590f180314c42c2a\"}}`" }, { "id": 40670, "title": "Will the U.S. House pass H.R. 4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act) between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (ET)?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. House pass H.R. 4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act) between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-3", "url_title": "Will the U.S. House pass H.R. 4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act) between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-3", "slug": "will-the-us-house-pass-hr-4405-epstein-files-transparency-act-between-2025-10-15-and-2025-12-3", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.505419Z", "published_at": "2025-11-19T09:16:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T10:47:00.225492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.705052Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T10:46:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T10:46:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-19T09:16:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40266, "title": "Will the U.S. House pass H.R. 4405 (Epstein Files Transparency Act) between 2025-10-15 and 2025-12-31 (ET)?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.505818Z", "open_time": "2025-11-19T09:16:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T10:46:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T10:46:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T10:46:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T10:46:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Summary of the measure and status quo as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the bill is: H.R. 4405 (119th Congress), the Epstein Files Transparency Act, would require the Attorney General to make publicly available, in a searchable and downloadable format, all unclassified Department of Justice records related to Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, among other specified categories. It was introduced on July 15, 2025, and Section 1 provides the short title. Section 2 specifies the required disclosures and format. Official bill page: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405 (link for reference).\n- Sponsorship and support: The sponsor is Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA-17). Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY-4) is a cosponsor. As of late summer 2025, Congress.gov listed 23 cosponsors, indicating bipartisan support with Massie as the Republican cosponsor.\n- Procedural path in play: Supporters have been pursuing a discharge petition to force a floor vote despite leadership opposition. A discharge petition compels consideration if a majority of House members (218) sign, allowing a bill to come to the floor even over leadership’s objections; see background explainer on discharge petitions (House Rule XV) and discussion of this specific effort.\n- Countdown to 218 signatures: As of Sept. 10, 2025, the discharge petition effort had 217 signatures after Rep. James Walkinshaw signed. On Sept. 24–25, reporting indicated Democrat Adelita Grijalva’s special-election victory in Arizona would provide the decisive 218th signature once she is sworn in.\n- Political headwinds: GOP leadership and White House allies have been working to block or delay a floor vote, arguing concerns about victims’ privacy and ongoing committee work. The Hill likewise reported leadership opposition from Speaker Mike Johnson and alignment with the Trump White House against the measure.\n- Where House passage is recorded: Official House roll call votes and outcomes are posted on the Clerk’s site under Legislative Activity → Roll Call Votes, which can be used to verify House passage.\n\nDefinitions and useful references for forecasters:\n- U.S. House of Representatives: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives\n- Discharge petition (procedure overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition and procedural explainer \n- Jeffrey Epstein: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein\n- Ghislaine Maxwell: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell\n- Department of Justice (DOJ): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Justice\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The bill is defined and introduced , has visible bipartisan momentum via a discharge strategy , yet faces organized opposition from leadership and the White House [7f4d1]. This creates real uncertainty about whether the House will actually pass H.R. 4405 in the Oct 15–Dec 31 window.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"fd2da8024722b16e\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Question: Will the U.S. House of Representatives pass H.R. 4405 (119th Congress), the Epstein Files Transparency Act, between 2025-10-15 00:00:00 ET and 2025-12-31 23:59:59 ET?\n\nOperational definitions:\n- H.R. 4405 refers specifically to the bill titled “Epstein Files Transparency Act” in the 119th Congress, as listed on Congress.gov: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405.\n- “Pass the House” (or “House passage”) means that the House agrees to the proposition “On passage of H.R. 4405” (including any formulation such as “On motion to suspend the rules and pass H.R. 4405” or “On passage, as amended”) with a result of Passed/Agreed to before the deadline. This can be shown by either:\n • An official roll call result on the Clerk’s website indicating passage; or\n • An official entry in the House Journal indicating that H.R. 4405 passed the House by voice vote or recorded vote before the deadline. The Clerk’s Roll Call Votes page is the primary source for recorded votes.\n- Time zone: All times are U.S. Eastern Time (ET), as observed in Washington, DC. The inclusive window is from 2025-10-15 00:00:00 ET through 2025-12-31 23:59:59 ET.\n\nInclusions:\n- Passage under any standard House procedure counts (e.g., under suspension of the rules; via a special rule reported by the Rules Committee; via a discharge petition leading to consideration). Only the passage of H.R. 4405 itself counts, not other bills or resolutions.\n- If the House passes H.R. 4405 more than once within the window (e.g., reconsideration and repassage), any instance of passage within the window suffices for YES.\n\nExclusions and edge cases:\n- Committee approvals, adoption of rules, or passage of nonbinding resolutions do not count unless they are the “On passage” of H.R. 4405 itself.\n- Passage of a different bill number or a legislative vehicle that incorporates similar or identical text does not count; the bill number must be H.R. 4405.\n- If the House passes H.R. 4405 outside the defined time window, the outcome is NO.\n- If the House initially passes H.R. 4405 within the window but later vitiates the vote or the motion to reconsider is agreed to and the bill fails before the deadline, the final status as of 2025-12-31 23:59:59 ET governs.\n\nResolution source and procedure:\n- Primary: The Clerk of the House’s Roll Call Votes and legislative activity pages will be checked for an “On Passage” (or equivalent) entry for H.R. 4405 showing the result Passed/Agreed to.\n- Secondary/fallback: The House Journal entry for the relevant legislative day showing passage (useful if passage occurs by voice vote and no roll call appears on the Clerk’s roll call page).\n- If both sources are unavailable at resolution time, Congress.gov’s H.R. 4405 “All Actions” or “Actions Overview” indicating “Passed House” may be used as a fallback reference.\n\nNotes for context (non-criteria): As of late September 2025, coverage indicated the discharge petition had reached 217 signatures with Rep. Walkinshaw’s addition and was expected to reach 218 upon Adelita Grijalva’s swearing-in after her special-election win. Leadership and White House allies have opposed moving the bill forward. The bill’s content and introduction date are detailed on Congress.gov , and cosponsor data show bipartisan support.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40670, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763547810.55365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763547810.55365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.884455938697318 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 2.0, 59.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Summary of the measure and status quo as of 2025-09-30:\n- What the bill is: H.R. 4405 (119th Congress), the Epstein Files Transparency Act, would require the Attorney General to make publicly available, in a searchable and downloadable format, all unclassified Department of Justice records related to Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, among other specified categories. It was introduced on July 15, 2025, and Section 1 provides the short title. Section 2 specifies the required disclosures and format. Official bill page: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/4405 (link for reference).\n- Sponsorship and support: The sponsor is Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA-17). Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY-4) is a cosponsor. As of late summer 2025, Congress.gov listed 23 cosponsors, indicating bipartisan support with Massie as the Republican cosponsor.\n- Procedural path in play: Supporters have been pursuing a discharge petition to force a floor vote despite leadership opposition. A discharge petition compels consideration if a majority of House members (218) sign, allowing a bill to come to the floor even over leadership’s objections; see background explainer on discharge petitions (House Rule XV) and discussion of this specific effort.\n- Countdown to 218 signatures: As of Sept. 10, 2025, the discharge petition effort had 217 signatures after Rep. James Walkinshaw signed. On Sept. 24–25, reporting indicated Democrat Adelita Grijalva’s special-election victory in Arizona would provide the decisive 218th signature once she is sworn in.\n- Political headwinds: GOP leadership and White House allies have been working to block or delay a floor vote, arguing concerns about victims’ privacy and ongoing committee work. The Hill likewise reported leadership opposition from Speaker Mike Johnson and alignment with the Trump White House against the measure.\n- Where House passage is recorded: Official House roll call votes and outcomes are posted on the Clerk’s site under Legislative Activity → Roll Call Votes, which can be used to verify House passage.\n\nDefinitions and useful references for forecasters:\n- U.S. House of Representatives: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives\n- Discharge petition (procedure overview): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition and procedural explainer \n- Jeffrey Epstein: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein\n- Ghislaine Maxwell: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghislaine_Maxwell\n- Department of Justice (DOJ): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Department_of_Justice\n\nWhy this is forecastable now: The bill is defined and introduced , has visible bipartisan momentum via a discharge strategy , yet faces organized opposition from leadership and the White House [7f4d1]. This creates real uncertainty about whether the House will actually pass H.R. 4405 in the Oct 15–Dec 31 window.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"fd2da8024722b16e\"}}`" }, { "id": 40669, "title": "Will Ayodhya’s Deepotsav 2025 be officially recognized by Guinness World Records as a new “Largest display of oil lamps” record?", "short_title": "Will Ayodhya’s Deepotsav 2025 be officially recognized by Guinness World Records as a new “Largest d", "url_title": "Will Ayodhya’s Deepotsav 2025 be officially recognized by Guinness World Records as a new “Largest d", "slug": "will-ayodhyas-deepotsav-2025-be-officially-recognized-by-guinness-world-records-as-a-new-largest-d", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.101255Z", "published_at": "2025-11-19T08:10:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-19T09:41:00.249735Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.317023Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T09:40:34Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T09:40:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-11-19T08:10:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32843, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - LLM Question Experiment - 2025-11-10", "slug": "minibench-2025-11-10", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-11-10T05:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-02-03T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-11-23T22:36:46Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-11-07T04:36:56.860004Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-22T06:34:25.508403Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40265, "title": "Will Ayodhya’s Deepotsav 2025 be officially recognized by Guinness World Records as a new “Largest display of oil lamps” record?", "created_at": "2025-11-08T04:15:20.101690Z", "open_time": "2025-11-19T08:10:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-11-19T09:40:34Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-11-19T09:40:34Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-19T09:40:34Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-19T09:40:34Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: The standing Guinness World Records title for “Largest display of oil lamps” is 2,512,585 oil lamps, achieved in Ayodhya, India on 30 October 2024. The credited organizers are the Department of Tourism – Government of Uttar Pradesh, District Administration Ayodhya, and Dr. Rammanohar Lohia Avadh University. Guinness defines this title as the most individual oil lamps displayed simultaneously at a single venue; an oil lamp produces light continuously using a renewable oil-based (or bio-fuel) source.\n\nPlanned 2025 attempt: Ayodhya’s Deepotsav 2025 is planned for 19 October 2025, with public statements indicating a target to light over 26 lakh (2.6 million) earthen lamps (“diyas”) to break its own Guinness record. Reports also indicate on-site preparations by Uttar Pradesh Tourism and that Guinness adjudicators are expected to validate the attempt and certification process. A diya is a small oil lamp, typically made of clay, with a cotton wick dipped in oil or ghee, commonly used during Diwali and other ceremonies.\n\nWhy this is forecastable: Success depends on logistics, weather, compliance with Guinness verification protocols, funding, volunteer coordination, and safety—all of which can plausibly swing the outcome. The target (≈2.6 million) is only modestly above the current record (2,512,585), making both success and failure credible given execution risk.\n\nTime zone note: Indian Standard Time (IST) is UTC+05:30.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4c4811b04565857b\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Resolution window: Events and recognitions occurring between 00:00 IST (UTC+05:30) on 15 October 2025 and 23:59 IST on 31 December 2025 will be considered.\n\nQuestion restated precisely: Will Guinness World Records officially recognize a new record for the title “Largest display of oil lamps” attributed to an event in Ayodhya, India in 2025, with a lamp count strictly greater than 2,512,585, by 23:59 IST on 31 December 2025? The 2,512,585 threshold reflects the standing record set in Ayodhya on 30 October 2024.\n\nDefinitions and scope:\n- “Largest display of oil lamps” refers to the Guinness World Records title at guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/96019-largest-display-of-oil-lamps, governed by Guinness’ criteria (most individual oil lamps displayed simultaneously at a single venue; oil lamp uses a renewable oil-based or bio-fuel source).\n- “Officially recognize” means Guinness World Records either (a) updates the official title page to list a higher-count record from a 2025 Ayodhya event, or (b) publishes an official announcement (e.g., on guinnessworldrecords.com/news or other official GWR communications) explicitly stating that a 2025 event in Ayodhya achieved a new “Largest display of oil lamps” record and specifying the count. Primary source is the official title page; official Guinness announcements are acceptable corroboration if the title page update is pending.\n- “Ayodhya” refers to the city in Uttar Pradesh, India, as listed on the Guinness title page for the current record.\n- “IST” denotes Indian Standard Time, UTC+05:30.\n\nResolution logic:\n- YES if, within the window, Guinness officially recognizes a new “Largest display of oil lamps” record attributed to Ayodhya (India) in 2025, with a count > 2,512,585. Verification will prioritize the official Guinness title page; if not yet updated, an official Guinness announcement naming Ayodhya, the 2025 date, and the count suffices.\n- NO if by 23:59 IST on 31 December 2025 there is no such Guinness recognition; or the recognized count is ≤ 2,512,585; or recognition is attributed to a location other than Ayodhya; or the event occurs but is not recognized by Guinness within the window.\n\nExclusions and clarifications:\n- Other Guinness titles (e.g., mass aarti) do not count toward this question; only the “Largest display of oil lamps” title is relevant.\n- Whether the record remains the standing record after recognition is irrelevant; recognition at any point within the window qualifies for YES, even if later superseded.\n\nPrimary resolution source:\n- Guinness World Records official title page: “Largest display of oil lamps”.\n\nSupporting background sources:\n- Planned 2025 date and target (> 26 lakh diyas): UNI India; The Statesman.\n- Definition of diya; IST offset: Wikipedia.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40669, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763629309.213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763629309.213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9116934865900389 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 26.0, 4.0, 4.0, 9.0, 15.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Status quo as of 2025-10-01: The standing Guinness World Records title for “Largest display of oil lamps” is 2,512,585 oil lamps, achieved in Ayodhya, India on 30 October 2024. The credited organizers are the Department of Tourism – Government of Uttar Pradesh, District Administration Ayodhya, and Dr. Rammanohar Lohia Avadh University. Guinness defines this title as the most individual oil lamps displayed simultaneously at a single venue; an oil lamp produces light continuously using a renewable oil-based (or bio-fuel) source.\n\nPlanned 2025 attempt: Ayodhya’s Deepotsav 2025 is planned for 19 October 2025, with public statements indicating a target to light over 26 lakh (2.6 million) earthen lamps (“diyas”) to break its own Guinness record. Reports also indicate on-site preparations by Uttar Pradesh Tourism and that Guinness adjudicators are expected to validate the attempt and certification process. A diya is a small oil lamp, typically made of clay, with a cotton wick dipped in oil or ghee, commonly used during Diwali and other ceremonies.\n\nWhy this is forecastable: Success depends on logistics, weather, compliance with Guinness verification protocols, funding, volunteer coordination, and safety—all of which can plausibly swing the outcome. The target (≈2.6 million) is only modestly above the current record (2,512,585), making both success and failure credible given execution risk.\n\nTime zone note: Indian Standard Time (IST) is UTC+05:30.\n\n`{\"format\":\"csv_table\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"4c4811b04565857b\"}}`" } ] }