Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6340, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 40496, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 60.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Vox >27% youth vote in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-vox-27-youth-vote-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.693900Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T09:18:43Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:14.324071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.958965Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:18:43Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40057, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 60.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.694403Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:18:43Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T20:11:56Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:13.839197Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:48:43Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263\n- Original question title: Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 60.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the latest 2025 survey conducted by the company 40dB., the direct voting intention for Vox among young people aged 18 to 24 is greater than 27%. It will be answered as **No** if it is 27% or less.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • The relevant survey will probably be published by [ <u>El País</u> ](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n> \n> • Voting intention refers specifically to the 18-24 age group and to direct voting intention data, as presented in the 40dB survey. You can consult [ <u>this example</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). If that range is not available, another nearby range will be used to represent the youth vote.\n> \n> • If the last 2025 40dB survey is published before October 1, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Vox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n> \n> This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747,\"last_cp\":0.6}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263). If the community prediction on 2025-11-06 20:11:56 is higher than 60.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40496, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761647679.124381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.355 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.489 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761647679.124381, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.355 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.489 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44787276785714286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.594819065993335, "peer_score": 4.143627463751361, "coverage": 0.95502880498215, "relative_legacy_score": 0.004985359439947647, "weighted_coverage": 0.95502880498215, "spot_peer_score": 3.468609403784947, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.594819065993335, "peer_archived_score": 4.143627463751361, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.004985359439947647, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.468609403784947, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35263\n- Original question title: Will Vox surpass the 27% voting intention among young people in Spain by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 60.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the latest 2025 survey conducted by the company 40dB., the direct voting intention for Vox among young people aged 18 to 24 is greater than 27%. It will be answered as **No** if it is 27% or less.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • The relevant survey will probably be published by [ <u>El País</u> ](https://elpais.com/noticias/barometro-el-pais/).\n> \n> • Voting intention refers specifically to the 18-24 age group and to direct voting intention data, as presented in the 40dB survey. You can consult [ <u>this example</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf). If that range is not available, another nearby range will be used to represent the youth vote.\n> \n> • If the last 2025 40dB survey is published before October 1, 2025, this question will be **void**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Vox is a political party founded in 2013 in Spain, classified by political scientists and media outlets as a far-right or right-wing populist party. In recent years, its support among young voters has attracted significant attention. According to [ <u>recent 40dB polls</u> ](https://ep00.epimg.net/infografias/encuestas40db/2025/02-barometro/2025_02_barometro_voto.pdf) published by El País, Vox receives 27% support among voters aged 18-24, its highest percentage across all age groups. This is notably higher than its support among older demographics, which ranges from 10-19%.\n> \n> This pattern of increased youth support for far-right parties [ <u>is not unique to Spain</u> ](https://elpais.com/internacional/2024-06-15/el-voto-de-los-jovenes-a-la-extrema-derecha-crece-en-los-cinco-mayores-paises-de-la-ue.html), as Marine Le Pen's RN in France and AfD in Germany have also seen an increase in youth support in recent years.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35263,\"question_id\":34747,\"last_cp\":0.6}}`" }, { "id": 40495, "title": "Will ACGL's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "ACGL's close price rises?", "url_title": "ACGL's close price rises?", "slug": "acgls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.236908Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T09:00:55Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:14.984172Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.486501Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:00:55Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40056, "title": "Will ACGL's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:42.237351Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T09:00:55Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T11:16:39Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:14.544065Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T10:30:55Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ACGL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:27) is 87.15. You can find more information about Arch Capital Group Ltd. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL\n\nArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; casualty; marine and aviation; excess and surplus casualty; construction and national accounts; alternative market risks and employer's liability; travel, accident, and health; contract and commercial surety coverage; and other insurance products, as well as Lloyd's syndicates; programs; and warranty and lenders solutions. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ACGL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of ACGL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40495, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761645017.89195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5345 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761645017.89195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5345 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.554997395833333 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 4.0, 6.0, 22.0, 7.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 13.517147327414992, "peer_score": -0.32013196649388487, "coverage": 0.959674733877182, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0007894762142889117, "weighted_coverage": 0.959674733877182, "spot_peer_score": -0.18840179153163922, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 13.517147327414992, "peer_archived_score": -0.32013196649388487, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0007894762142889117, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.18840179153163922, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is ACGL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:27) is 87.15. You can find more information about Arch Capital Group Ltd. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACGL\n\nArch Capital Group Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products in the United States, Canada, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Australia. The Insurance segment offers commercial automobile; commercial multiperil; financial and professional line liability; admitted, excess, and surplus casualty lines; property and short-tail specialty; workers compensation; casualty; marine and aviation; excess and surplus casualty; construction and national accounts; alternative market risks and employer's liability; travel, accident, and health; contract and commercial surety coverage; and other insurance products, as well as Lloyd's syndicates; programs; and warranty and lenders solutions. Its Reinsurance segment provides reinsurance products for casualty; marine and aviation; property catastrophe; property excluding property catastrophe; and other specialty products. The Mortgage segment offers U.S. primary mortgage insurance business written predominantly on loans sold to the Federal National Mortgage Association and Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation; reinsurance and underwriting services related to the U.S. credit-risk transfer business and other U.S. mortgage reinsurance transactions; and international mortgage insurance and reinsurance business covering loans. It markets its products through a group of licensed independent retail and wholesale brokers. The company was formerly known as Risk Capital Holdings, Inc. Arch Capital Group Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"ACGL\"}}`" }, { "id": 40493, "title": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "url_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "slug": "ffivs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:41.369121Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T06:49:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:16.675277Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:41.618796Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T08:19:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T08:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T15:20:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T15:20:01Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T06:49:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40054, "title": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:41.369528Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T06:49:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T08:19:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T08:19:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T15:20:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T15:20:01Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:16.024580Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T08:19:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T08:19:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "F5, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:28) is 298.34. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. The company also provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX Management Suite; NGINX Ingress Controller; NGINX App Protect; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. In addition, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. F5, Inc. sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FFIV. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40493, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761638291.961548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4766666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761638291.961548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.4766666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5233333333333333, 0.4766666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.4651024305555557 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 10.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 4.0, 2.0, 4.0, 6.0, 4.0, 2.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 5.293374757605903, "peer_score": -0.05759927970106843, "coverage": 0.9510027977713831, "relative_legacy_score": 0.00859965649996305, "weighted_coverage": 0.9510027977713831, "spot_peer_score": -0.7535734140007615, "spot_baseline_score": 6.580205839574608, "baseline_archived_score": 5.293374757605903, "peer_archived_score": -0.05759927970106843, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.00859965649996305, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7535734140007615, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 6.580205839574608 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "F5, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:28) is 298.34. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. The company also provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX Management Suite; NGINX Ingress Controller; NGINX App Protect; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. In addition, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. F5, Inc. sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`" }, { "id": 40492, "title": "Will WMB's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "WMB's close price rises?", "url_title": "WMB's close price rises?", "slug": "wmbs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:40.807813Z", "published_at": "2025-10-28T05:29:47Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:17.498135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:41.038588Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T06:59:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T06:59:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T08:36:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T08:36:58Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T05:29:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40053, "title": "Will WMB's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:40.808227Z", "open_time": "2025-10-28T05:29:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T06:59:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T06:59:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T08:36:58Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T08:36:58Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:16.954430Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T06:59:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T06:59:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Williams Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WMB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:18) is 57.48. You can find more information about The Williams Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMB\n\nThe Williams Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in the United States. It operates through Transmission & Gulf of America, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services segments. The Transmission & Gulf of America segment comprises Transco, NWP, and MountainWest interstate natural gas pipelines, and their related natural gas storage facilities, as well as natural gas gathering and processing; and crude oil production handling and transportation assets in the Gulf Coast region. The Northeast G&P segment engages in the midstream gathering, processing, and fractionation activities in the Marcellus Shale region primarily in Pennsylvania and New York, and the Utica Shale region of eastern Ohio. The West segment consists of gas gathering, processing, and treating operations in the Rocky Mountain region of Colorado and Wyoming, the Barnett Shale region of north-central Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale region of South Texas, the Haynesville Shale region of northwest Louisiana, the Mid-Continent region that includes the Anadarko and Permian basins, and the DJ Basin of Colorado; and operates natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and storage assets in central Kansas near Conway. The Gas & NGL Marketing Services segment provides wholesale marketing, trading, storage, and transportation of natural gas for natural gas utilities, municipalities, power generators, and producers; asset management services; and transports and markets NGLs. The company owns and operates approximately 33,000 miles of pipelines. The Williams Companies, Inc. was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WMB\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of WMB. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40492, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761633132.594989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5285 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.585 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761633132.594989, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5285 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.585 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5488645833333332 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 7.0, 17.0, 10.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 10.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -14.047808917860511, "peer_score": 0.8013752739239837, "coverage": 0.930333922792364, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0056730110006887775, "weighted_coverage": 0.930333922792364, "spot_peer_score": 0.7705591083914364, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -14.047808917860511, "peer_archived_score": 0.8013752739239837, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0056730110006887775, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.7705591083914364, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Williams Companies, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is WMB. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:18) is 57.48. You can find more information about The Williams Companies, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMB\n\nThe Williams Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy infrastructure company primarily in the United States. It operates through Transmission & Gulf of America, Northeast G&P, West, and Gas & NGL Marketing Services segments. The Transmission & Gulf of America segment comprises Transco, NWP, and MountainWest interstate natural gas pipelines, and their related natural gas storage facilities, as well as natural gas gathering and processing; and crude oil production handling and transportation assets in the Gulf Coast region. The Northeast G&P segment engages in the midstream gathering, processing, and fractionation activities in the Marcellus Shale region primarily in Pennsylvania and New York, and the Utica Shale region of eastern Ohio. The West segment consists of gas gathering, processing, and treating operations in the Rocky Mountain region of Colorado and Wyoming, the Barnett Shale region of north-central Texas, the Eagle Ford Shale region of South Texas, the Haynesville Shale region of northwest Louisiana, the Mid-Continent region that includes the Anadarko and Permian basins, and the DJ Basin of Colorado; and operates natural gas liquid (NGL) fractionation and storage assets in central Kansas near Conway. The Gas & NGL Marketing Services segment provides wholesale marketing, trading, storage, and transportation of natural gas for natural gas utilities, municipalities, power generators, and producers; asset management services; and transports and markets NGLs. The company owns and operates approximately 33,000 miles of pipelines. The Williams Companies, Inc. was founded in 1908 and is headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"WMB\"}}`" }, { "id": 40488, "title": "Will EVRG's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "short_title": "EVRG's close price rises?", "url_title": "EVRG's close price rises?", "slug": "evrgs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:38.898905Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T23:40:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:20.491507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:39.118019Z", "comment_count": 94, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T01:10:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T01:10:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T11:43:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T11:43:44Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T23:40:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40049, "title": "Will EVRG's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-28?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:38.899313Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T23:40:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-28T01:10:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-28T01:10:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T11:43:44Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T11:43:44Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:19.827328Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-28T01:10:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-28T01:10:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Evergy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EVRG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:25) is 77.96. You can find more information about Evergy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVRG\n\nEvergy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates electricity through coal, landfill gas, uranium, and natural gas and oil sources, as well as solar, wind, other renewable sources. The company serves residences, commercial firms, industrials, municipalities, and other electric utilities. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EVRG\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of EVRG. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-28, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40488, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761613503.767881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761613503.767881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5524260385005062 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 9.0, 4.0, 2.0, 19.0, 6.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -12.720836831049974, "peer_score": 0.48614740808445783, "coverage": 0.9643793531700419, "relative_legacy_score": 0.010151466233619275, "weighted_coverage": 0.9643793531700419, "spot_peer_score": 1.4467696432213508, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "baseline_archived_score": -12.720836831049974, "peer_archived_score": 0.48614740808445783, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.010151466233619275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.4467696432213508, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Evergy, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is EVRG. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:25) is 77.96. You can find more information about Evergy, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EVRG\n\nEvergy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, distribution, and sale of electricity in the United States. It generates electricity through coal, landfill gas, uranium, and natural gas and oil sources, as well as solar, wind, other renewable sources. The company serves residences, commercial firms, industrials, municipalities, and other electric utilities. The company was incorporated in 2017 and is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"EVRG\"}}`" }, { "id": 40486, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Madrid housing >18%?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Madrid housing >18%?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-madrid-housing-18", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.974040Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T21:55:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:21.954067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:38.205801Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:25:45Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:25:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:04:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:04:33Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T21:55:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40047, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 28.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.974459Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T21:55:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T23:25:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T23:25:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:04:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T00:04:33Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:21.457897Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:25:45Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:25:45Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570\n- Original question title: Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 28.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the sales price data published on the [ <u>Idealista portal</u> ](https://www.idealista.com/sala-de-prensa/informes-precio-vivienda/venta/madrid-comunidad/madrid-provincia/madrid/), the average price of housing in the **city of Madrid** per square meter rises by more than 18% from December 2024 to December 2025. It will be answered as **No** if the increase is 18% or less, or if there is a decrease in prices.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * At the time of writing this question, December 2024 prices are €4,952/m² according to the graph and table \"Historical variation in sales prices in Madrid\" in the resolution source. However, the increase will be calculated based on the December 2024 prices shown when the December 2025 data is published.\n> * Nominal figures will be compared, without discounting the effect of inflation.\n> \n> • If Idealista has not published data for December 2025 by January 7, this question will be resolved based on the increase from November 2024 to November 2025. If this is not available, this question will be **cancelled**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In 2024, house prices in the city of Madrid rose by 20%, and the Madrid real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. According to [ <u>Caixabank Research</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), the current state of the Spanish real estate market is generally characterized by strong demand and tight supply. [ <u>They forecast</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) a 6%-7% increase for house prices in Spain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35570,\"question_id\":35020,\"last_cp\":0.28}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 00:04:33 is higher than 28.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40486, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761604606.239963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.389 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49785714285714283 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761604606.239963, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.389 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49785714285714283 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.611, 0.389 ], "means": [ 0.40901264880952365 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 19.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 24.97495600147889, "peer_score": 5.637123674758323, "coverage": 0.9006682985358767, "relative_legacy_score": -0.03684193158802908, "weighted_coverage": 0.9006682985358767, "spot_peer_score": 6.32808759827141, "spot_baseline_score": 28.924428515664246, "baseline_archived_score": 24.97495600147889, "peer_archived_score": 5.637123674758323, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.03684193158802908, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.32808759827141, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.924428515664246 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35570\n- Original question title: Will housing prices in Madrid rise by more than 18% in 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 28.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be answered as **Yes** if, according to the sales price data published on the [ <u>Idealista portal</u> ](https://www.idealista.com/sala-de-prensa/informes-precio-vivienda/venta/madrid-comunidad/madrid-provincia/madrid/), the average price of housing in the **city of Madrid** per square meter rises by more than 18% from December 2024 to December 2025. It will be answered as **No** if the increase is 18% or less, or if there is a decrease in prices.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * At the time of writing this question, December 2024 prices are €4,952/m² according to the graph and table \"Historical variation in sales prices in Madrid\" in the resolution source. However, the increase will be calculated based on the December 2024 prices shown when the December 2025 data is published.\n> * Nominal figures will be compared, without discounting the effect of inflation.\n> \n> • If Idealista has not published data for December 2025 by January 7, this question will be resolved based on the increase from November 2024 to November 2025. If this is not available, this question will be **cancelled**.\n\nOriginal background: \n> In 2024, house prices in the city of Madrid rose by 20%, and the Madrid real estate market is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025. According to [ <u>Caixabank Research</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/spanish-real-estate-market-2024-2025-expansive-mode), the current state of the Spanish real estate market is generally characterized by strong demand and tight supply. [ <u>They forecast</u> ](https://www.caixabankresearch.com/en/sectoral-analysis/real-estate/new-forecasts-spanish-real-estate-sector-expansionary-cycle-takes) a 6%-7% increase for house prices in Spain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35570,\"question_id\":35020,\"last_cp\":0.28}}`" }, { "id": 40485, "title": "Will LRCX's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "LRCX's close price rises?", "url_title": "LRCX's close price rises?", "slug": "lrcxs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.519659Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T21:43:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:22.714386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.761226Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:13:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:13:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T14:38:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T14:38:16Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T21:43:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40046, "title": "Will LRCX's market close price on 2025-11-07 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.520074Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T21:43:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T23:13:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T23:13:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T14:38:16Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T14:38:16Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:22.181064Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:13:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T23:13:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lam Research Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LRCX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:10) is 151.68. You can find more information about Lam Research Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX\n\nLam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe. The company offers ALTUS systems to deposit conformal or selective films for tungsten or molybdenum metallization applications; SABRE electrochemical deposition products for copper interconnect transition that offers copper damascene manufacturing; SPEED gapfill high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition (CVD) products; Striker single-wafer atomic layer deposition products for dielectric film solutions; and VECTOR plasma-enhanced CVD products. It also provides Flex for dielectric etch applications; Vantex, a dielectric etch system that provides RF technology and repeatable wafer-to-wafer performance enabled by Equipment Intelligence solutions; Kiyo for conductor etch applications; Syndion for through-silicon via etch applications; and Versys metal products for metal etch processes. In addition, the company offers Coronus bevel clean products to enhance die yield; and Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, and SP series products to address various wafer cleaning applications. Further, it provides Reliant deposition, etch, and clean products; and Sense.i platform products, as well as customer service, spares, and upgrades. Lam Research Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LRCX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of LRCX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40485, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761604672.814333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.542 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.605 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761604672.814333, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.542 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.605 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5721831597222217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 5.0, 8.0, 25.0, 4.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 17.46397988884905, "peer_score": -2.513995571128916, "coverage": 0.9910071437005644, "relative_legacy_score": 0.006324499067228989, "weighted_coverage": 0.9910071437005644, "spot_peer_score": -3.48170446620292, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 17.46397988884905, "peer_archived_score": -2.513995571128916, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.006324499067228989, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.48170446620292, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lam Research Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is LRCX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:10) is 151.68. You can find more information about Lam Research Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LRCX\n\nLam Research Corporation designs, manufactures, markets, refurbishes, and services semiconductor processing equipment used in the fabrication of integrated circuits in the United States, China, Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Southeast Asia, and Europe. The company offers ALTUS systems to deposit conformal or selective films for tungsten or molybdenum metallization applications; SABRE electrochemical deposition products for copper interconnect transition that offers copper damascene manufacturing; SPEED gapfill high-density plasma chemical vapor deposition (CVD) products; Striker single-wafer atomic layer deposition products for dielectric film solutions; and VECTOR plasma-enhanced CVD products. It also provides Flex for dielectric etch applications; Vantex, a dielectric etch system that provides RF technology and repeatable wafer-to-wafer performance enabled by Equipment Intelligence solutions; Kiyo for conductor etch applications; Syndion for through-silicon via etch applications; and Versys metal products for metal etch processes. In addition, the company offers Coronus bevel clean products to enhance die yield; and Da Vinci, DV-Prime, EOS, and SP series products to address various wafer cleaning applications. Further, it provides Reliant deposition, etch, and clean products; and Sense.i platform products, as well as customer service, spares, and upgrades. Lam Research Corporation was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"LRCX\"}}`" }, { "id": 40484, "title": "Will TXT's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "TXT's close price rises?", "url_title": "TXT's close price rises?", "slug": "txts-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.082802Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T21:12:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:23.472924Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.313184Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T22:42:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T22:42:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:51:18Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:51:18Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T21:12:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40045, "title": "Will TXT's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:37.083193Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T21:12:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T22:42:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T22:42:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:51:18Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:51:18Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:22.941843Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T22:42:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T22:42:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Textron Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is TXT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:14) is 81.22. You can find more information about Textron Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXT\n\nTextron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates in six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance. The Textron Aviation segment manufactures, sells, and services business jets, turboprop and piston engine aircraft, and military trainer and defense aircraft; and offers maintenance, inspection, and repair services, as well as sells commercial parts. The Bell segment supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircrafts, and related spare parts and services. The Textron Systems segment offers unmanned aircraft systems, electronic systems and solutions, advanced marine crafts, piston aircraft engines, live military air-to-air and air-to-ship training, weapons and related components, and armored and specialty vehicles. The Industrial segment offers blow-molded solutions, including conventional plastic fuel tanks and pressurized fuel tanks for hybrid vehicle applications, clear-vision systems, plastic tanks for catalytic reduction systems, and battery housing systems for use in electric vehicles primarily to automobile original equipment manufacturers (OEMs); and golf cars, off-road utility vehicles, powersports products, light transportation vehicles, aviation ground support equipment, professional turf-maintenance equipment, and turf-care vehicles to golf courses and resorts, government agencies and municipalities, consumers, outdoor enthusiasts, and commercial and industrial users. The Textron eAviation segment manufactures and sells light aircraft and gliders with electric and combustion engines; and provides other research and development initiatives related to sustainable aviation solutions. The Finance segment offers financing services to purchase new and pre-owned aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters. Textron Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"TXT\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of TXT. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40484, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761602848.117033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761602848.117033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.554204365079365 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 10.0, 8.0, 6.0, 25.0, 6.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 14.53852480563896, "peer_score": -0.4594743820561406, "coverage": 0.9891265887242777, "relative_legacy_score": -0.00011267052022292706, "weighted_coverage": 0.9891265887242777, "spot_peer_score": -0.10189012035110524, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 14.53852480563896, "peer_archived_score": -0.4594743820561406, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.00011267052022292706, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.10189012035110524, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Textron Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is TXT. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:14) is 81.22. You can find more information about Textron Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TXT\n\nTextron Inc. operates in the aircraft, defense, industrial, and finance businesses worldwide. It operates in six segments: Textron Aviation, Bell, Textron Systems, Industrial, Textron eAviation, and Finance. The Textron Aviation segment manufactures, sells, and services business jets, turboprop and piston engine aircraft, and military trainer and defense aircraft; and offers maintenance, inspection, and repair services, as well as sells commercial parts. The Bell segment supplies military and commercial helicopters, tiltrotor aircrafts, and related spare parts and services. The Textron Systems segment offers unmanned aircraft systems, electronic systems and solutions, advanced marine crafts, piston aircraft engines, live military air-to-air and air-to-ship training, weapons and related components, and armored and specialty vehicles. The Industrial segment offers blow-molded solutions, including conventional plastic fuel tanks and pressurized fuel tanks for hybrid vehicle applications, clear-vision systems, plastic tanks for catalytic reduction systems, and battery housing systems for use in electric vehicles primarily to automobile original equipment manufacturers (OEMs); and golf cars, off-road utility vehicles, powersports products, light transportation vehicles, aviation ground support equipment, professional turf-maintenance equipment, and turf-care vehicles to golf courses and resorts, government agencies and municipalities, consumers, outdoor enthusiasts, and commercial and industrial users. The Textron eAviation segment manufactures and sells light aircraft and gliders with electric and combustion engines; and provides other research and development initiatives related to sustainable aviation solutions. The Finance segment offers financing services to purchase new and pre-owned aviation aircraft and Bell helicopters. Textron Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Providence, Rhode Island.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"TXT\"}}`" }, { "id": 40483, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 63.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Inditex Top 10 in EU (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-inditex-top-10-in-eu-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:36.509939Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T19:56:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:24.260898Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:36.875267Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:26:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:26:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T18:24:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T18:24:27Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:56:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40044, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 63.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:36.510363Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:56:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T21:26:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T21:26:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T18:24:27Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T18:24:27Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:23.693675Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:26:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:26:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571\n- Original question title: Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 63.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n> * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Inditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021,\"last_cp\":0.63}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 18:24:27 is higher than 63.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40483, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761599180.224656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761599180.224656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.52 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48, 0.52 ], "means": [ 0.49842386185243304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 11.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 5.0, 16.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -5.534864401913262, "peer_score": -1.6833030581828496, "coverage": 0.913275312582652, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04762070348342388, "weighted_coverage": 0.913275312582652, "spot_peer_score": -1.8465923757262206, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": -5.534864401913262, "peer_archived_score": -1.6833030581828496, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04762070348342388, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8465923757262206, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35571\n- Original question title: Will Inditex be among the top 10 EU companies by market capitalisation by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 63.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, as of December 31, 2025 (or the previous trading date), Inditex is among the 10 largest companies by market capitalization in the European Union (EU). It will be resolved as **No** if it is below the 10th position or is not listed at all.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * [ <u>CompaniesMarketCap</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/european-union/largest-companies-in-the-eu-by-market-cap/) or an equivalent reliable source will be used as a reference.\n> * If specific data is not available for December 31, 2025, the last year-end closing will be used.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Inditex, the Spanish multinational known for owning brands such as Zara, is the [ <u>largest company in Spain by market capitalization</u> ](https://companiesmarketcap.com/spain/largest-companies-in-spain-by-market-cap/) and a major player in international markets. As of February 2025, Inditex ranks 11th among Europe's largest companies by market capitalization, closely following Deutsche Telekom and Siemens. With a market capitalization of approximately $175 billion, Inditex would need to overtake Deutsche Telekom, currently valued at around $179.68 billion, to break into the top 10.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35571,\"question_id\":35021,\"last_cp\":0.63}}`" }, { "id": 40482, "title": "Will XYL's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "url_title": "XYL's close price rises?", "slug": "xyls-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:35.941602Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T19:55:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:25.120813Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:36.315770Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:25:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:25:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T21:37:46Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T21:37:46Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:55:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40043, "title": "Will XYL's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:35.942019Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:55:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T21:25:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T21:25:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T21:37:46Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T21:37:46Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:24.482990Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:25:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T21:25:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:13) is 148.25. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of XYL. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40482, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761600213.095785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761600213.095785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5880265957446806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 3.0, 2.0, 18.0, 4.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.225621527614823, "peer_score": -0.2481002001186023, "coverage": 0.9680582824018267, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02812614498430178, "weighted_coverage": 0.9680582824018267, "spot_peer_score": -0.7606160696051849, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284736, "baseline_archived_score": 20.225621527614823, "peer_archived_score": -0.2481002001186023, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02812614498430178, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7606160696051849, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284736 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Xylem Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is XYL. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:13) is 148.25. You can find more information about Xylem Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XYL\n\nXylem Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, manufacture, and servicing of engineered products and solutions for utility, industrial, and residential and commercial building services settings worldwide. It operates through four segments: Water Infrastructure; Applied Water; Measurement and Control Solutions; and Water Solutions and Services. The company offers water, wastewater and storm water pumps, and controls and systems; filtration, disinfection, and biological treatment equipment under the Flygt, Ionpure, Vortisand, Wallace & Tiernan, and Wedeco brands; and pumps, valves, heat exchangers, controls and dispensing equipment used for water and focuses on the residential, commercial and industrial markets under the Rule, Bell & Gossett, Flojet, Goulds Water Technology, Jabsco, Lowara, and Standard Xchange brands. It also provides smart meters, network communication devices, data analytics, test instruments, controls, sensor devices, software and managed services, and critical infrastructure services; and software and services including cloud-based analytics, and remote monitoring and data management under the Sensus, Smith Blair, WTW, YSI, and Xylem Vue brands. In addition, the company offers preventative maintenance services, rapid response mobile services, digitally enabled/outsourced solutions, process and wastewater treatment systems, environmental remediation, odor and corrosion control, filtration, reverse osmosis, continuous deionization, and mobile dewatering equipment and rental services; and municipal services comprising odor and corrosion control services, as well as leak detection, condition assessment and asset management and pressure monitoring solutions under the AquaPro, WaterOne, Ion Pure, Flygt, Pure Technologies, and Godwin brands. The company was formerly known as ITT WCO, Inc. and changed its name to Xylem Inc. in May 2011. Xylem Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"XYL\"}}`" }, { "id": 40480, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "url_title": "RJF's close price rises?", "slug": "rjfs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.940612Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T19:23:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:26.872422Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:35.168156Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T01:27:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T01:27:43Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:23:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40041, "title": "Will RJF's market close price on 2025-11-08 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.941030Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T19:23:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T01:27:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T01:27:43Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:26.288313Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:53:24Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:26) is 162.44. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of RJF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40480, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761597744.873679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761597744.873679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5690736842105263 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 4.0, 5.0, 19.0, 7.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 16.45107198562224, "peer_score": -0.5919855753798932, "coverage": 0.9761910883144096, "relative_legacy_score": 0.006054023297051072, "weighted_coverage": 0.9761910883144096, "spot_peer_score": -1.0103948463153816, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "baseline_archived_score": 16.45107198562224, "peer_archived_score": -0.5919855753798932, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.006054023297051072, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.0103948463153816, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Raymond James Financial, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is RJF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:26) is 162.44. You can find more information about Raymond James Financial, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RJF\n\nRaymond James Financial, Inc., a diversified financial services company, provides private client group, capital markets, asset management, banking, and other services to individuals, corporations, and municipalities in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The Private Client Group segment offers investment services, portfolio management services, insurance and annuity products, and mutual funds; support to third-party mutual fund and annuity companies, including sales and marketing support, as well as distribution and accounting, and administrative services; margin loans; securities borrowing and lending services; diversification strategies and alternative investment products; and custodial, trade execution, research, and other support and services. The Capital Markets segment provides investment banking services, such as equity and debt underwriting, and merger and acquisition advisory services; and fixed income and equity brokerage services. This segment also offers institutional sales, securities trading, equity research, and the syndication and management of investments in low-income housing funds and funds of a similar nature. The Asset Management segment provides asset management, portfolio management, and related administrative services to retail and institutional clients; and administrative support services, such as record-keeping. The Bank segment offers various types of loans, including securities-based, commercial and industrial, commercial real estate and construction, real estate investment trust, residential mortgage, and tax-exempt loans; insured deposit accounts; retail and corporate deposit; and liquidity management products and services. The Other segment engages in the private equity investments comprising invests in third-party funds. Raymond James Financial, Inc. was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Saint Petersburg, Florida.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"RJF\"}}`" }, { "id": 40478, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"AI >85% in FrontierMath before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-ai-85-in-frontiermath-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.036336Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T18:51:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:28.588228Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.293672Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T02:23:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T02:23:26Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:51:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40039, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 16.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:34.036821Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:51:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T02:23:26Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T02:23:26Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:27.888858Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:21:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 02:23:26 is higher than 16.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40478, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761594710.765505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761594710.765505, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.3246365979381443 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.56015177593692, "peer_score": 5.432116860700981, "coverage": 0.967101211282942, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02762556302207745, "weighted_coverage": 0.967101211282942, "spot_peer_score": 3.669089610986492, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 43.56015177593692, "peer_archived_score": 5.432116860700981, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02762556302207745, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.669089610986492, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35562\n- Original question title: Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 16.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, by January 1, 2026, at least one AI system is documented to achieve greater than 85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark.\n> \n> The achievement must be reported in a document (such as a peer-reviewed paper, conference presentation, official benchmark publication, or a blog post by the AI developer). A simple reference to progress or internal assessments, without published performance results, will not qualify. If these results are not published, the question will be resolved as **No**.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> No fine print provided\n\nOriginal background: \n> The FrontierMath benchmark, detailed on <u>Epoch AI’s [ FrontierMath page</u> ](https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/the-benchmark), is designed to test cutting-edge mathematical reasoning in AI systems. It consists of challenging, non-trivial problems that require both symbolic and numerical reasoning, going far beyond the scope of standard mathematical benchmarks. As AI research is rapidly advancing—with progress on large language models (LLMs) and mathematical “reasoning” systems—achieving a score above 85% on FrontierMath would signal a significant advancement in the field.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35562,\"question_id\":35013,\"last_cp\":0.16}}`" }, { "id": 40477, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"India GDP > Japan GDP (2025)?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-india-gdp-japan-gdp-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:33.557725Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T18:48:31Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:29.446305Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:33.825375Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:13:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:13:59Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:48:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40038, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 90.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:33.558232Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T18:48:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:13:59Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T01:13:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:28.826609Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T20:18:31Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 01:13:59 is higher than 90.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40477, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761595020.146749, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761595020.146749, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.5033844023323614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 11.268780653194513, "peer_score": 20.411184101704283, "coverage": 0.9440718655674545, "relative_legacy_score": -0.004009257954857818, "weighted_coverage": 0.9440718655674545, "spot_peer_score": 22.738308359873766, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "baseline_archived_score": 11.268780653194513, "peer_archived_score": 20.411184101704283, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.004009257954857818, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.738308359873766, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35577\n- Original question title: Will India's nominal GDP surpass Japan's by the end of 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 90.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook database, India's nominal GDP for 2025 exceeds that of Japan by the end of that year. It will be resolved as **No** if Japan's GDP remains higher or if both are equivalent.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> * The resolution will use the most recent data available from the [ <u>IMF</u> ]World Economic Outlook database(https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD) (\"GDP, current prices Billions of US dollars\"), as of 7 January 2026. The expected release date is October 2025.\n\nOriginal background: \n> India and Japan are among the largest economies in the world. India has experienced rapid economic growth in recent decades, potentially positioning itself to overtake Japan in terms of nominal GDP. By 2024, Japan was the 4th largest economy, with a GDP of $4.07 trillion, while India was the 5th, with $3.89 trillion (IMF). This economic trajectory underscores the dynamic shifts in global economic power.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35577,\"question_id\":35027,\"last_cp\":0.9}}`" }, { "id": 40475, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "COF's close price rises?", "url_title": "COF's close price rises?", "slug": "cofs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:32.645072Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T16:35:09Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:31.130161Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:32.875962Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T01:06:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T01:06:33Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T16:35:09Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40036, "title": "Will COF's market close price on 2025-11-04 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:32.645505Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T16:35:09Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T01:06:33Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-04T01:06:33Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:30.516040Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T18:05:09Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:23) is 225.01. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of COF. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40475, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761587214.431027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.535 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761587214.431027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.535 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5751594387755101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 4.0, 6.0, 4.0, 11.0, 10.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 16.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -23.19542389002955, "peer_score": 1.215281471023292, "coverage": 0.9493861609476585, "relative_legacy_score": -0.07029326455831159, "weighted_coverage": 0.9493861609476585, "spot_peer_score": 2.340595750369448, "spot_baseline_score": -21.75914350726266, "baseline_archived_score": -23.19542389002955, "peer_archived_score": 1.215281471023292, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.07029326455831159, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.340595750369448, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -21.75914350726266 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Capital One Financial Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is COF. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:23) is 225.01. You can find more information about Capital One Financial Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/COF\n\nCapital One Financial Corporation operates as the financial services holding company for the Capital One, National Association, which engages in the provision of various financial products and services in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. It operates through three segments: Credit Card, Consumer Banking, and Commercial Banking. The company accepts checking accounts, money market deposits, negotiable order of withdrawals, savings deposits, and time deposits. Its loan products include credit card loans; auto and retail banking loans; and commercial and multifamily real estate, and commercial and industrial loans. The company offers credit and debit card products; online direct banking services; and provides advisory, capital markets, treasury management, and depository services. It serves consumers, small businesses, and commercial clients through digital channels, branches, cafés, and other distribution channels located in New York, Louisiana, Texas, Maryland, Virginia, New Jersey, and California. Capital One Financial Corporation was founded in 1988 and is headquartered in McLean, Virginia.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"COF\"}}`" }, { "id": 40473, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"French protest with 600k participants before 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-french-protest-with-600k-participants-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:31.714353Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T15:13:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:33.227695Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:31.945832Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T17:22:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T17:22:23Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T15:13:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40034, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 15.00% on 2025-11-06 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:31.714773Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T15:13:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T17:22:23Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T17:22:23Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:32.200387Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T16:43:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052). If the community prediction on 2025-11-06 17:22:23 is higher than 15.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40473, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761582325.720053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761582325.720053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36994550810014737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 13.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.26958855921622, "peer_score": 9.67990036549017, "coverage": 0.990048648516337, "relative_legacy_score": 0.015994347260572604, "weighted_coverage": 0.990048648516337, "spot_peer_score": 6.598300958222905, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 37.26958855921622, "peer_archived_score": 9.67990036549017, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.015994347260572604, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.598300958222905, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40052\n- Original question title: Will there be a political protest with at least 600,000 participants in France before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 15.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the French Ministry of the Interior (Ministère de l’Intérieur et des Outre-mer) officially reports a national total of 600,000 participants or more for a political protest before January 1, 2026.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Metaculus will rely on the French Ministry of the Interior and reports by credible sources to determine if the reported participants were for a single or multiple protests. In case of ambiguity, this question might resolve as **Ambiguous.**\n\nOriginal background: \n> On September 8, 2025, French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote amid backlash to a €44 billion budget squeeze. President Macron named Sébastien Lecornu Prime Minister on September 9, who is still assembling a new government. Despite some differences over some of the most controversial proposals, Lecornu [does not signal a major shift](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/french-pm-says-aims-cut-budget-deficit-47-2026-no-wealth-tax-2025-09-26/?utm_source=chatgpt.com) from the previous Prime Ministers.\n> \n> After a large mobilization on September 18 with [over 500 000 protestors](https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2025/09/18/re-bloquons-tout-une-nouvelle-journee-de-manifestations-contre-la-rigueur-budgetaire-en-fr), the PM and unions had started talks but they were judged unproductive. Unions announced a nationwide day of action on October 2 to pressure the new PM against his measures of \"[austerity](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/french-unions-say-they-will-hold-another-day-demonstrations-oct-2-2025-09-24/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\", which gathered 195,000 protesters, [according to the French Ministry of the Interior](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2025/10/02/france-sees-nationwide-strikes-against-austerity-measures_6746026_7.html).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40052,\"question_id\":39587,\"last_cp\":0.15}}`" }, { "id": 40469, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Increase in global average wealth per adult?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Increase in global average wealth per adult?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-increase-in-global-average-wealth-per-adult", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.276511Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T14:00:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:36.762755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.635318Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:36:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:36:48Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T14:00:22Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40030, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 95.00% on 2025-11-08 for the Metaculus question \"Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.276943Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T14:00:22Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:36:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-08T00:36:48Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:36.144570Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:30:22Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578\n- Original question title: Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) estimates that the \"[ <u>Median national wealth at market value per adult</u> ](https://wid.world/world/#anweal_p0p100_z/WO/last/eu/k/p/yearly/a/false/48929.56/125000/curve/false/country)\" for 2024 is higher than that in 2023. It will be resolved as **No** otherwise or if the value is equal to or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • If WID does not publish 2024 data by the resolution date, the question will be **void**.\n> \n> • The comparison will be made with the most recent figure available corresponding to 2023.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) tracks inequality and wealth indicators globally. The \"Average national wealth at market value per adult\" measures average wealth per adult in terms of market value, providing insights into global economic changes and wealth distribution. This metric reflects changes in economic conditions, but also dynamics of capital redistribution/concentration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35578,\"question_id\":35028,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578). If the community prediction on 2025-11-08 00:36:48 is higher than 95.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40469, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761578892.153586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.405 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761578892.153586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.405 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.595, 0.405 ], "means": [ 0.4531479591836737 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -29.013951205262252, "peer_score": -1.6384036207447956, "coverage": 0.9332944646146561, "relative_legacy_score": -0.19916696274057616, "weighted_coverage": 0.9332944646146561, "spot_peer_score": -1.5367633073427212, "spot_baseline_score": -30.40061868900999, "baseline_archived_score": -29.013951205262252, "peer_archived_score": -1.6384036207447956, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.19916696274057616, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.5367633073427212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -30.40061868900999 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/35578\n- Original question title: Will global average wealth per adult increase in 2024 compared to 2023?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 95.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> The question will be resolved as **Yes** if the [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) estimates that the \"[ <u>Median national wealth at market value per adult</u> ](https://wid.world/world/#anweal_p0p100_z/WO/last/eu/k/p/yearly/a/false/48929.56/125000/curve/false/country)\" for 2024 is higher than that in 2023. It will be resolved as **No** otherwise or if the value is equal to or lower.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> • If WID does not publish 2024 data by the resolution date, the question will be **void**.\n> \n> • The comparison will be made with the most recent figure available corresponding to 2023.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The [ <u>World Inequality Database</u> ](https://wid.world/) (WID) tracks inequality and wealth indicators globally. The \"Average national wealth at market value per adult\" measures average wealth per adult in terms of market value, providing insights into global economic changes and wealth distribution. This metric reflects changes in economic conditions, but also dynamics of capital redistribution/concentration.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":35578,\"question_id\":35028,\"last_cp\":0.95}}`" }, { "id": 40468, "title": "Will IEX's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "short_title": "IEX's close price rises?", "url_title": "IEX's close price rises?", "slug": "iexs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.796719Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T13:47:50Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:38.144613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:29.050602Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T02:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T02:46:00Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:47:50Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40029, "title": "Will IEX's market close price on 2025-11-06 be higher than its market close price on 2025-10-27?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.797184Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:47:50Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T02:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-06T02:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:36.995310Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:17:50Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "IDEX Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IEX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:16) is 167.95. You can find more information about IDEX Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IEX\n\nIDEX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides applied solutions in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Fluid & Metering Technologies (FMT), Health & Science Technologies (HST), and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products (FSDP). The FMT segment designs, produces, and distributes positive displacement pumps, valves, small volume provers, flow meters, injectors, and other fluid-handling pump modules and systems, as well as flow monitoring and other services for the general industrial, water and wastewater, energy, chemical, agriculture, semiconductor, and food and pharmaceutical industries. The HST segment designs, produces, and distributes precision fluidics, positive displacement pumps, powder and liquid processing technologies, drying systems, micro-precision components, pneumatic components and sealing solutions, moulded and extruded sealing components, shaft seals, engineered hygienic mixers and valves, biocompatible medical devices and implantable, air compressors and blowers, optical components and coatings, laboratory and commercial equipment, technical ceramics and hermetic sealing products, porous material structures, flow control solutions, and precision photonic solutions. This segment serves life sciences, general industrial, analytical instruments, semiconductor, food and pharmaceutical, energy, automotive, aerospace/defense, and medical/dental markets. The FSDP segment designs, produces, and distributes firefighting pumps, valves and controls, rescue tools, engineered stainless steel banding and clamping devices, lifting bags, other components and systems, and precision equipment for dispensing, metering, and mixing colorants and paints. This segment serves fire suppression, paint dispensing, rescue tools, automotive, general industrial, aerospace/defense, and energy markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IEX\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of IEX. If it is higher than the close price on 2025-10-27, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "post_id": 40468, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761577611.485791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.547 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761577611.485791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "centers": [ 0.547 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45299999999999996, 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.5368591836734695 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 10.0, 9.0, 7.0, 18.0, 2.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.094895831150525, "peer_score": 2.712764320081744, "coverage": 0.9266287237185019, "relative_legacy_score": 0.023153098528451585, "weighted_coverage": 0.9266287237185019, "spot_peer_score": 3.1037806709567506, "spot_baseline_score": 12.961273813046965, "baseline_archived_score": 12.094895831150525, "peer_archived_score": 2.712764320081744, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.023153098528451585, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.1037806709567506, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 12.961273813046965 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "IDEX Corporation is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is IEX. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2025-10-26 05:39:16) is 167.95. You can find more information about IDEX Corporation at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IEX\n\nIDEX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides applied solutions in the United States, rest of North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Fluid & Metering Technologies (FMT), Health & Science Technologies (HST), and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products (FSDP). The FMT segment designs, produces, and distributes positive displacement pumps, valves, small volume provers, flow meters, injectors, and other fluid-handling pump modules and systems, as well as flow monitoring and other services for the general industrial, water and wastewater, energy, chemical, agriculture, semiconductor, and food and pharmaceutical industries. The HST segment designs, produces, and distributes precision fluidics, positive displacement pumps, powder and liquid processing technologies, drying systems, micro-precision components, pneumatic components and sealing solutions, moulded and extruded sealing components, shaft seals, engineered hygienic mixers and valves, biocompatible medical devices and implantable, air compressors and blowers, optical components and coatings, laboratory and commercial equipment, technical ceramics and hermetic sealing products, porous material structures, flow control solutions, and precision photonic solutions. This segment serves life sciences, general industrial, analytical instruments, semiconductor, food and pharmaceutical, energy, automotive, aerospace/defense, and medical/dental markets. The FSDP segment designs, produces, and distributes firefighting pumps, valves and controls, rescue tools, engineered stainless steel banding and clamping devices, lifting bags, other components and systems, and precision equipment for dispensing, metering, and mixing colorants and paints. This segment serves fire suppression, paint dispensing, rescue tools, automotive, general industrial, aerospace/defense, and energy markets. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"IEX\"}}`" }, { "id": 40467, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New Glenn 2025 successful landing\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"New Glenn 2025 successful landing\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-new-glenn-2025-successful-landing", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.346919Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T13:10:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:42.544004Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.585165Z", "comment_count": 98, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T23:53:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T23:53:10Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:10:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40028, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 36.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.347321Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T13:10:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T23:53:10Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T23:53:10Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:42.082659Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:40:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40287\n- Original question title: Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if during 2025 Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket in which the first stage performs a successful landing.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket during 2025 but the successful landing takes place during 2026, this question will still resolve as Yes.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New Glenn is Blue Origin’s large, partially reusable orbital rocket. The first stage is designed to return and land on a sea-based platform for reuse. On its first orbital launch (on Jan 16, 2025) New Glenn reached orbit, however the booster [was not recovered](https://www.blueorigin.com/fr-FR/news/new-glenn-ng-1-mission?utm_source=chatgpt.com) after a landing attempt.\n> \n> Blue Origin's very [cautious approach](https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-836412) stands in contrast to SpaceX's much faster \"fail to learn\" and they are now far behind in term of public progress in all categories of rockets. Their approach also makes every new flight much more crucial than SpaceX's since, with subsequent flights waiting up to a year, a failure will cause a much bigger setback.\n> \n> Blue Origin is now targeting another landing attempt, with a booster named \"Never Tell Me the Odds\" [later in 2025](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/the-second-new-glenn-rolls-to-the-launch-pad-and-they-expect-to-recover-this-one/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40287,\"question_id\":39839,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40287). If the community prediction on 2025-11-05 23:53:10 is higher than 36.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40467, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761574713.681253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761574713.681253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.46661929057337215 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 2.0, 6.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 9.817885361543574, "peer_score": 7.771622759366821, "coverage": 0.9903457649990363, "relative_legacy_score": 0.02003284828885484, "weighted_coverage": 0.9903457649990363, "spot_peer_score": 8.66497521538483, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "baseline_archived_score": 9.817885361543574, "peer_archived_score": 7.771622759366821, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.02003284828885484, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.66497521538483, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/40287\n- Original question title: Will Blue Origin's \"Never Tell Me The Odds\" launch before 2026 and successfully land?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 36.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if during 2025 Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket in which the first stage performs a successful landing.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> If Blue Origin launches a New Glenn rocket during 2025 but the successful landing takes place during 2026, this question will still resolve as Yes.\n\nOriginal background: \n> New Glenn is Blue Origin’s large, partially reusable orbital rocket. The first stage is designed to return and land on a sea-based platform for reuse. On its first orbital launch (on Jan 16, 2025) New Glenn reached orbit, however the booster [was not recovered](https://www.blueorigin.com/fr-FR/news/new-glenn-ng-1-mission?utm_source=chatgpt.com) after a landing attempt.\n> \n> Blue Origin's very [cautious approach](https://www.jpost.com/science/science-around-the-world/article-836412) stands in contrast to SpaceX's much faster \"fail to learn\" and they are now far behind in term of public progress in all categories of rockets. Their approach also makes every new flight much more crucial than SpaceX's since, with subsequent flights waiting up to a year, a failure will cause a much bigger setback.\n> \n> Blue Origin is now targeting another landing attempt, with a booster named \"Never Tell Me the Odds\" [later in 2025](https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/10/the-second-new-glenn-rolls-to-the-launch-pad-and-they-expect-to-recover-this-one/). \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":40287,\"question_id\":39839,\"last_cp\":0.36}}`" }, { "id": 40466, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 82.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-alina-habba-still-us-attorney-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:27.794504Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T12:49:23Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:43.229353Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:28.144858Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:51:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:51:09Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:49:23Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40027, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 82.00% on 2025-11-05 for the Metaculus question \"Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:27.794975Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:49:23Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:51:09Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-05T05:51:09Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:42.791204Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T14:19:23Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 82.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.82}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756). If the community prediction on 2025-11-05 05:51:09 is higher than 82.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40466, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761573531.907528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761573531.907528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4397282986111109 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 17.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 6.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.118076102765468, "peer_score": 11.877380970423332, "coverage": 0.998577257571397, "relative_legacy_score": 0.08741225638970718, "weighted_coverage": 0.998577257571397, "spot_peer_score": 12.664497694963876, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 28.118076102765468, "peer_archived_score": 11.877380970423332, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.08741225638970718, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.664497694963876, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39756\n- Original question title: Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 82.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n> \n> If credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).\n\nOriginal background: \n> [Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n> \n> Under [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n> \n> Grace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n> \n> Federal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39756,\"question_id\":39152,\"last_cp\":0.82}}`" }, { "id": 40464, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-us-government-stock-in-semiconductor-companies-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.857203Z", "published_at": "2025-10-27T12:18:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:44:44.523502Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:27.104344Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T12:00:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T12:00:06Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:18:39Z", "nr_forecasters": 96, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32841, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-10-27", "slug": "minibench-2025-10-27", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-10-27T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-11-22T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-10-31T20:10:37Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:21:50.941408Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T14:37:44.686962Z", "score_type": "spot_peer", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 40025, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 7.00% on 2025-11-07 for the Metaculus question \"Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\"?", "created_at": "2025-10-26T05:50:26.857666Z", "open_time": "2025-10-27T12:18:39Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T12:00:06Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-11-07T12:00:06Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-11-08T15:44:44.145508Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T13:48:39Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706\n- Original question title: Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n> \n> TSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n> \n> However, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706). If the community prediction on 2025-11-07 12:00:06 is higher than 7.00%, the question will resolve to 'Yes'.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 40464, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761570657.156522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761570657.156522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.435 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6525000000000001, 0.3475 ], "means": [ 0.35608854166666687 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.82553761993084, "peer_score": 13.751457412049076, "coverage": 0.956958228526292, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0035752733629234863, "weighted_coverage": 0.956958228526292, "spot_peer_score": 6.21422818145782, "spot_baseline_score": 38.404980679515994, "baseline_archived_score": 35.82553761993084, "peer_archived_score": 13.751457412049076, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0035752733629234863, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.21422818145782, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 38.404980679515994 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/39706\n- Original question title: Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?\n- The current community prediction as of 2025-10-26: 7.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n> \n> TSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n> \n> However, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39706,\"question_id\":39080,\"last_cp\":0.07}}`" } ] }