Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 6775, "next": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 41806, "title": "Will the SWE-bench Bash Only benchmark have a new high score before March 14, 2026?", "short_title": "New highscore on SWE-bench by Mar 13, 2026?", "url_title": "New highscore on SWE-bench by Mar 13, 2026?", "slug": "new-highscore-on-swe-bench-by-mar-13-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-23T01:39:45.476484Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T15:53:21.399493Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-02T12:14:58.442880Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 351, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T15:55:50.379527Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T15:55:50.379527Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41545, "title": "Will the SWE-bench Bash Only benchmark have a new high score before March 14, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-23T01:39:45.476855Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-14T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-28T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "According to [SWE-bench](https://www.swebench.com/original.html):\n\n> SWE-bench tests AI systems' ability to solve GitHub issues.\n\n> We collect 2,294 task instances by crawling Pull Requests and Issues from 12 popular Python repositories. Each instance is based on a pull request that (1) is associated with an issue, and (2) modified 1+ testing related files.\n\nThe original SWE-bench has a wide latitude for human developers to create \"scaffolding\" or instructions that guide an AI's reasoning, which can get quite complex. To offer a more apples-to-apples comparison of the underlying AI models, the Bash Only rules allow no tools and only minimal scaffolding, using its [mini-SWE-agent](https://github.com/SWE-agent/mini-swe-agent). \n\nAs of January 22, 2026, the top 7 models were: \n\n| Model | % Resolved | Avg. \\$ | Date | Release |\n| ---------------------------------------- | ---------- | ------- | ---------- | ------- |\n| 🆕 Claude 4.5 Opus medium (2025-11-01) | 74.40 | \\$0.72 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |\n| 🆕 Gemini 3 Pro Preview (2025-11-18) | 74.20 | \\$0.46 | 2025-11-18 | 1.15.0 |\n| 🆕 GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) (high reasoning) | 71.80 | \\$0.52 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4.5 Sonnet (2025-09-29) | 70.60 | \\$0.56 | 2025-09-29 | 1.13.3 |\n| 🆕 GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) | 69.00 | \\$0.27 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4 Opus (2025-05-14) | 67.60 | \\$1.13 | 2025-08-02 | 1.0.0 |\n| 🆕 GPT-5.1-codex (medium reasoning) | 66.00 | \\$0.59 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before March 14, 2026, a model on the [SWE-bench Bash Only leaderboard](https://www.swebench.com/bash-only.html) has a \"% Resolved\" score of greater than 74.40%.", "fine_print": "If SWE-bench cannot be accessed for resolution or the relevant figures are otherwise unavailable, this question will be **annulled**.", "short_title": "New highscore on SWE-bench by Mar 13, 2026?", "post_id": 41806, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 670, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [SWE-bench](https://www.swebench.com/original.html):\n\n> SWE-bench tests AI systems' ability to solve GitHub issues.\n\n> We collect 2,294 task instances by crawling Pull Requests and Issues from 12 popular Python repositories. Each instance is based on a pull request that (1) is associated with an issue, and (2) modified 1+ testing related files.\n\nThe original SWE-bench has a wide latitude for human developers to create \"scaffolding\" or instructions that guide an AI's reasoning, which can get quite complex. To offer a more apples-to-apples comparison of the underlying AI models, the Bash Only rules allow no tools and only minimal scaffolding, using its [mini-SWE-agent](https://github.com/SWE-agent/mini-swe-agent). \n\nAs of January 22, 2026, the top 7 models were: \n\n| Model | % Resolved | Avg. \\$ | Date | Release |\n| ---------------------------------------- | ---------- | ------- | ---------- | ------- |\n| 🆕 Claude 4.5 Opus medium (2025-11-01) | 74.40 | \\$0.72 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |\n| 🆕 Gemini 3 Pro Preview (2025-11-18) | 74.20 | \\$0.46 | 2025-11-18 | 1.15.0 |\n| 🆕 GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) (high reasoning) | 71.80 | \\$0.52 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4.5 Sonnet (2025-09-29) | 70.60 | \\$0.56 | 2025-09-29 | 1.13.3 |\n| 🆕 GPT-5.2 (2025-12-11) | 69.00 | \\$0.27 | 2025-12-11 | 1.17.2 |\n| Claude 4 Opus (2025-05-14) | 67.60 | \\$1.13 | 2025-08-02 | 1.0.0 |\n| 🆕 GPT-5.1-codex (medium reasoning) | 66.00 | \\$0.59 | 2025-11-24 | 1.16.0 |" }, { "id": 41805, "title": "Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Criminal charges for the death of Renee Good", "url_title": "Criminal charges for the death of Renee Good", "slug": "criminal-charges-for-the-death-of-renee-good", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T23:28:34.821960Z", "published_at": "2026-01-29T13:53:25Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T04:06:07.548504Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-29T13:54:20.642133Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T22:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-30T13:53:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } }, "question": { "id": 41544, "title": "Will Jonathan Ross be indicted or charged in the death of Renee Good before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T23:28:34.822614Z", "open_time": "2026-01-30T13:53:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-03T13:53:25Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-03T13:53:25Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T22:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:23:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T22:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Renee Nicole Good was a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and mother of three. On January 7, 2026, Good was [fatally shot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Ren%C3%A9e_Good) by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent, Jonathan Ross, during a federal immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis, where Good had recently moved. Body-cam and bystander video show an ICE officer firing multiple shots into her vehicle as she began driving from a stopped position. Federal officials [claimed](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/08/nx-s1-5671061/minneapolis-ice-shooting-noem#:~:text=What%20we%20know%20one%20day,an%20ICE%20agent%20in%20Minneapolis\\&text=The%20killing%20of%20Renee%20Nicole,as%20well%2C%22%20she%20said.) the agent acted in self-defense after Good’s car moved toward him, but family, local leaders, and [video evidence](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/video/ice-shooting-renee-good-minneapolis-videos.html) have challenged that narrative. The incident has sparked intense debate over use of force, federal authority, and transparency, with ongoing investigations and calls for accountability.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before July 1, 2026, Jonathan Ross is formally charged or indicted for murder or manslaughter for the fatal shooting of Renee Nicole Good.", "fine_print": "The charges must state explicitly that Ross is accused in the unlawful killing or in the unlawful causing of the death of Renee Good. If Ross is charged with a crime that is not murder or manslaughter, such as the deprivation of Good's civil rights, that will not cause this question to resolve as Yes.", "short_title": "Criminal charges for the death of Renee Good", "post_id": 41805, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770609957.301814, "end_time": 1772296184.525, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770609957.301814, "end_time": 1772296184.525, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.39570235702320156 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0249010266127259, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 1.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.3147232704804096, 0.7490672709776599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274475074830906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Renee Nicole Good was a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and mother of three. On January 7, 2026, Good was [fatally shot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_of_Ren%C3%A9e_Good) by a U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agent, Jonathan Ross, during a federal immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis, where Good had recently moved. Body-cam and bystander video show an ICE officer firing multiple shots into her vehicle as she began driving from a stopped position. Federal officials [claimed](https://www.npr.org/2026/01/08/nx-s1-5671061/minneapolis-ice-shooting-noem#:~:text=What%20we%20know%20one%20day,an%20ICE%20agent%20in%20Minneapolis\\&text=The%20killing%20of%20Renee%20Nicole,as%20well%2C%22%20she%20said.) the agent acted in self-defense after Good’s car moved toward him, but family, local leaders, and [video evidence](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/video/ice-shooting-renee-good-minneapolis-videos.html) have challenged that narrative. The incident has sparked intense debate over use of force, federal authority, and transparency, with ongoing investigations and calls for accountability." }, { "id": 41804, "title": "Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?", "short_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "url_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "slug": "sudan-errs-nobel-winners-2026", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T15:24:27.810419Z", "published_at": "2026-01-22T15:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T10:36:50.662670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T15:25:19.647250Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-22T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 41543, "title": "Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T15:24:27.810906Z", "open_time": "2026-01-22T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-07T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-07T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-10T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024.\n\nIn 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the [PRIO Director's shortlist](https://www.prio.org/news/3596), which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025/will-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025), ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.\n\nThe same year, ERRs received the [Rafto Prize for Human Rights](https://www.rafto.no/en/the-rafto-prize/emergency-response-rooms-of-sudan-err) and the [Right Livelihood Award](https://rightlivelihood.org/the-change-makers/find-a-laureate/emergency-response-rooms/), both sometimes called \"alternative Nobels.\" Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta.\n\nAs of January 22nd 2026, ERRs do not appear on the [2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if the Norwegian Nobel Committee announces the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize to include Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs), as published on [nobelprize.org](nobelprize.org).\n\nThe prize may be shared with other laureates. The question resolves Yes if ERRs are among the named recipients.\n\nThis question resolves NO if the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize is awarded to any individual or organization that does not include the ERRs.", "fine_print": "If no Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in 2026, as has occurred 19 times since 1901, the question resolves No.\n\n\"Emergency Response Rooms\" refers to the Sudanese volunteer network also known in Arabic as غرف الاستجابة للطوارئ. If the Committee names a closely related successor organization or coalition that clearly evolved from the ERRs, resolution will be determined by moderator judgment in consultation with the community.", "short_title": "Sudan ERRs Nobel Winners 2026?", "post_id": 41804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769156876.25977, "end_time": 1771835274.46, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769156876.25977, "end_time": 1771835274.46, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.23 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERRs) are a decentralized network of over 735 volunteer-run neighborhood rooms across Sudan's 18 states. Emerging from the 2019 revolution's resistance committees, they have provided food, shelter, medical evacuations, and emergency response to more than 11.5 million people with nearly 26,000 volunteers since civil war erupted in April 2023, per the Right Livelihood Award and Rafto Foundation announcements in late 2024.\n\nIn 2025, ERRs were front-runners for the Nobel Peace Prize. They ranked first on the [PRIO Director's shortlist](https://www.prio.org/news/3596), which has correctly identified the winner in 10 of 12 years since 2014. On [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2025/will-sudans-emergency-response-rooms-win-the-nobel-peace-prize-in-2025), ERRs reached 33% odds by October 9, 2025, the highest among candidates. The prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.\n\nThe same year, ERRs received the [Rafto Prize for Human Rights](https://www.rafto.no/en/the-rafto-prize/emergency-response-rooms-of-sudan-err) and the [Right Livelihood Award](https://rightlivelihood.org/the-change-makers/find-a-laureate/emergency-response-rooms/), both sometimes called \"alternative Nobels.\" Four Rafto Prize winners have later won the Nobel Peace Prize: Aung San Suu Kyi (Rafto 1990, Nobel 1991), Kim Dae-jung (Rafto 2000, Nobel 2000), Shirin Ebadi (Rafto 2001, Nobel 2003), and Jose Ramos-Horta.\n\nAs of January 22nd 2026, ERRs do not appear on the [2026 Polymarket Nobel Peace Prize market](https://polymarket.com/event/nobel-peace-prize-winner-2026-139)." }, { "id": 41758, "title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-north-korea-conduct-a-nuclear-test-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:44.749593Z", "published_at": "2026-01-29T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-29T22:30:00.171423Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:53.363050Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-29T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41498, "title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:44.749994Z", "open_time": "2026-01-29T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-29T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-29T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T22:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T22:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks whether North Korea will resume nuclear testing before May 2026, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and developments in their weapons program.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"df4713d7c921687e\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) conducts a nuclear test after the opening of this question and before 12:00 AM UTC on May 1, 2026. Resolution is according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions), including confirmation from an international monitoring body (such as the CTBTO or IAEA).", "fine_print": "A nuclear test is defined as a detonation involving a nuclear chain reaction, regardless of yield. Subcritical tests do not count. In the event of conflicting reports, the consensus of credible sources such as the CTBTO and the USGS will take precedence over North Korean state media claims.", "short_title": "Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41758, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769724431.418318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769724431.418318, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22786862022656296 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 4.0, 0.0, 15.0, 3.0, 6.0, 2.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question tracks whether North Korea will resume nuclear testing before May 2026, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and developments in their weapons program.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"df4713d7c921687e\"}}`" }, { "id": 41757, "title": "Will the FDA grant approval to Zilebesiran for the treatment of hypertension before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the FDA grant approval to Zilebesiran for the treatment of hypertension before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the FDA grant approval to Zilebesiran for the treatment of hypertension before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-fda-grant-approval-to-zilebesiran-for-the-treatment-of-hypertension-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:29.745385Z", "published_at": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-29T07:30:00.304767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:39.460214Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41497, "title": "Will the FDA grant approval to Zilebesiran for the treatment of hypertension before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:29.745775Z", "open_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-29T07:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-29T07:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T07:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T07:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks whether the FDA issues a formal approval for Zilebesiran (ALN-AGT), a first-in-class siRNA therapy, for hypertension before May 1, 2026. Approval would mark the first RNA interference therapy for a high-prevalence cardiovascular condition, shifting the treatment paradigm from daily pills to biannual injections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"499d66f22c3e2c36\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to Yes if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) grants marketing approval to Zilebesiran (also known as ALN-AGT) for the treatment of hypertension at any point after the launch of this question and before May 1, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the official FDA 'Novel Drug Approvals' [list for 2026](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/novel-drug-approvals-fda/novel-drug-approvals-2026) or an official press release or announcement from the FDA or the drug's developers (Alnylam Pharmaceuticals and Roche).", "fine_print": "Approval refers to a formal FDA decision allowing the drug to be marketed in the United States; a 'Complete Response Letter' (CRL) or a recommendation for approval by an advisory committee does not constitute approval. If the drug is approved for a different primary indication but not for hypertension, the question resolves to No. If the FDA database and the manufacturer's press release provide conflicting dates for the approval, the date listed on the official FDA approval letter shall take precedence.", "short_title": "Will the FDA grant approval to Zilebesiran for the treatment of hypertension before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41757, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769671164.063239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769671164.063239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.09275647050473726 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.0, 35.0, 15.0, 2.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 109, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question tracks whether the FDA issues a formal approval for Zilebesiran (ALN-AGT), a first-in-class siRNA therapy, for hypertension before May 1, 2026. Approval would mark the first RNA interference therapy for a high-prevalence cardiovascular condition, shifting the treatment paradigm from daily pills to biannual injections.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"499d66f22c3e2c36\"}}`" }, { "id": 41756, "title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States publicly accuse China of supplying lethal military aid to Russia?", "short_title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States publicly accuse China of supplying lethal military aid to", "url_title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States publicly accuse China of supplying lethal military aid to", "slug": "before-may-1-2026-will-the-united-states-publicly-accuse-china-of-supplying-lethal-military-aid-to", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:15.409723Z", "published_at": "2026-01-29T04:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-29T06:00:00.162554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:24.107192Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-29T04:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41496, "title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States publicly accuse China of supplying lethal military aid to Russia?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:15.410104Z", "open_time": "2026-01-29T04:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Western nations, led by the United States, have warned China against providing lethal military aid to Russia. While China has provided significant economic and diplomatic support to Moscow, it has so far officially refrained from supplying weaponry. In a November 2025 (meeting)[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-president-xi-meets-with-russias-prime-minister-mishustin-2025-11-04/], China and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to \"defend shared security interests,\" and China faces increasing US pressure over its trade and technology sectors. The U.S. Department of Defense 2025 (Annual Report To Congress)[https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF] assessed that China \"has stopped short of providing Russia with lethal aid.\" A decision by Beijing to supply arms would represent a major escalation.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c95722d4bc509e93\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if before May 1, 2026, the government of the United States publicly accuses the People's Republic of China of supplying Russia with lethal military aid for use in its war against Ukraine. 'Lethal military aid' includes items such as ammunition, missiles, armed drones, tanks, and fighter jets. It does not include non-lethal equipment like uniforms, body armor, or general-purpose vehicles. Any accusation must be specific about the type of lethal aid and provide some corroborating detail, not just general accusations or expressions of concern.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Before May 1, 2026, will the United States publicly accuse China of supplying lethal military aid to", "post_id": 41756, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769665969.206675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769665969.206675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17317741207223492 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 2.0, 8.0, 4.0, 2.0, 23.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Western nations, led by the United States, have warned China against providing lethal military aid to Russia. While China has provided significant economic and diplomatic support to Moscow, it has so far officially refrained from supplying weaponry. In a November 2025 (meeting)[https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-president-xi-meets-with-russias-prime-minister-mishustin-2025-11-04/], China and Russia reaffirmed their commitment to \"defend shared security interests,\" and China faces increasing US pressure over its trade and technology sectors. The U.S. Department of Defense 2025 (Annual Report To Congress)[https://media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/2003849070/-1/-1/1/ANNUAL-REPORT-TO-CONGRESS-MILITARY-AND-SECURITY-DEVELOPMENTS-INVOLVING-THE-PEOPLES-REPUBLIC-OF-CHINA-2025.PDF] assessed that China \"has stopped short of providing Russia with lethal aid.\" A decision by Beijing to supply arms would represent a major escalation.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"c95722d4bc509e93\"}}`" }, { "id": 41755, "title": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate again before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate again before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate again before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-the-bank-of-japan-raise-its-policy-interest-rate-again-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:01.917783Z", "published_at": "2026-01-29T01:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-29T03:00:00.162692Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:10.710314Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-29T01:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41495, "title": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate again before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:07:01.918198Z", "open_time": "2026-01-29T01:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-29T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-29T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-29T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-29T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "As of January 2026, markets are closely watching the Bank of Japan (BOJ) after it raised its policy interest rate to 0.75% in December 2025. Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields remain elevated, reflecting expectations of further tightening. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated the bank will 'consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate,' with analysts divided on the timing of the next hike. Persistently high inflation, alongside strong wage growth, is adding to the pressure on the central bank to continue normalizing monetary policy, though concerns about economic growth may warrant a cautious approach.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1b1c3fa041dc69f1\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as 'Yes' if the Bank of Japan's Policy Board announces an increase to its target for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at any of its scheduled Monetary Policy Meetings after January 22, 2026 and before May 1, 2026. The announcement must be made in the official statement following a Monetary Policy Meeting.", "fine_print": "Resolves according to the BOJ's [Monetary Policy Releases](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/index.htm) or credible sources", "short_title": "Will the Bank of Japan raise its policy interest rate again before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41755, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769654936.051144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769654936.051144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5536647847370325 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 106, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of January 2026, markets are closely watching the Bank of Japan (BOJ) after it raised its policy interest rate to 0.75% in December 2025. Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields remain elevated, reflecting expectations of further tightening. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stated the bank will 'consider the pros and cons of raising the policy interest rate and make decisions as appropriate,' with analysts divided on the timing of the next hike. Persistently high inflation, alongside strong wage growth, is adding to the pressure on the central bank to continue normalizing monetary policy, though concerns about economic growth may warrant a cautious approach.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"1b1c3fa041dc69f1\"}}`" }, { "id": 41754, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the President of the Russian Federation before May 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the President of the Russian Federation before May 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the President of the Russian Federation before May 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-vladimir-putin-cease-to-be-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-before-may-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:06:47.646406Z", "published_at": "2026-01-28T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-28T22:30:00.078758Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:06:56.508102Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-28T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-28T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-28T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41494, "title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the President of the Russian Federation before May 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:06:47.646851Z", "open_time": "2026-01-28T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-28T22:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-28T22:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-28T22:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-28T22:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "This question tracks the political continuity of the Russian presidency. It focuses on whether Vladimir Putin remains the head of state through the specified date in 2026, accounting for potential transitions or vacancies in the office.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"36e3176adbc7dd7b\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if, before 00:00 UTC on May 1, 2026, Vladimir Putin has according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) ceased to be the officially recognized President of the Russian Federation, whether because he has resigned, been removed from office, passed away, or for any other reason ceased to hold the office.", "fine_print": "In the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin ceasing to be President of Russia unless Putin has not, before May 1, 2026, resumed his duties as President", "short_title": "Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the President of the Russian Federation before May 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41754, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769638983.058069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769638983.058069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.10970006235761645 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 6.0, 13.0, 20.0, 10.0, 19.0, 4.0, 4.0, 3.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 111, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question tracks the political continuity of the Russian presidency. It focuses on whether Vladimir Putin remains the head of state through the specified date in 2026, accounting for potential transitions or vacancies in the office.\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"36e3176adbc7dd7b\"}}`" }, { "id": 41748, "title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-any-avian-influenza-human-cases-in-china-reported-by-the-who-before-april-1-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:05:22.558489Z", "published_at": "2026-01-25T19:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-25T21:00:00.174490Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-22T08:05:31.147255Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-25T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41488, "title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T08:05:22.558884Z", "open_time": "2026-01-25T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-25T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Avian influenza viruses (“bird flu”) occasionally infect humans, typically following direct or indirect exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments. While sustained human-to-human transmission has not been observed, such spillover infections are closely monitored due to their potential pandemic risk.\n\nChina has historically been a focal point for human avian influenza cases. Notably, H7N9 caused hundreds of human infections after first emerging in 2013, and H5N6 has led to sporadic but often severe cases in subsequent years. According to the World Health Organization, China has also reported intermittent human infections with other avian influenza subtypes over time, reflecting ongoing zoonotic risk at the human–animal interface.\nSource: WHO fact sheet on avian and zoonotic influenza\nhttps://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)\n\nMore recently, Chinese authorities reported several human infections with the H9N2 avian influenza virus in 2024–2025, largely involving children and generally presenting with mild illness.\nExample report:\nhttps://www.flu.org.cn/en/news-22316.html\n\nWHO publishes regular avian influenza situation reports summarizing confirmed human cases by country. As of early 2026, these reports had not yet recorded any new human avian influenza cases attributed to China for calendar year 2026, though surveillance remains ongoing and reports are updated periodically.\nWHO surveillance page:\nhttps://www.who.int/westernpacific/wpro-emergencies/surveillance/avian-influenza\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"479691719938f872\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2026, the WHO reports any confirmed human cases of avian influenza infection in China in calendar year 2026. The resolution will be determined by checking the WHO's Avian Influenza [situation reports](https://www.who.int/westernpacific/wpro-emergencies/surveillance/avian-influenza) for cumulative case counts attributed to China.", "fine_print": "Question resolves according to the final situation report with a publication date before April 2026. The question may resolve according to other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) in case of the WHO changing its reporting.", "short_title": "Will there be any avian influenza human cases in China reported by the WHO before April 1, 2026?", "post_id": 41748, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769374241.583738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769374241.583738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5966834574169413 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 6.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Avian influenza viruses (“bird flu”) occasionally infect humans, typically following direct or indirect exposure to infected poultry or contaminated environments. While sustained human-to-human transmission has not been observed, such spillover infections are closely monitored due to their potential pandemic risk.\n\nChina has historically been a focal point for human avian influenza cases. Notably, H7N9 caused hundreds of human infections after first emerging in 2013, and H5N6 has led to sporadic but often severe cases in subsequent years. According to the World Health Organization, China has also reported intermittent human infections with other avian influenza subtypes over time, reflecting ongoing zoonotic risk at the human–animal interface.\nSource: WHO fact sheet on avian and zoonotic influenza\nhttps://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(avian-and-other-zoonotic)\n\nMore recently, Chinese authorities reported several human infections with the H9N2 avian influenza virus in 2024–2025, largely involving children and generally presenting with mild illness.\nExample report:\nhttps://www.flu.org.cn/en/news-22316.html\n\nWHO publishes regular avian influenza situation reports summarizing confirmed human cases by country. As of early 2026, these reports had not yet recorded any new human avian influenza cases attributed to China for calendar year 2026, though surveillance remains ongoing and reports are updated periodically.\nWHO surveillance page:\nhttps://www.who.int/westernpacific/wpro-emergencies/surveillance/avian-influenza\n\n`{\"format\":\"bot_tournament_question\",\"info\":{\"hash_id\":\"479691719938f872\"}}`" }, { "id": 41699, "title": "Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?", "short_title": "U.S. consumer sentiment increase Feb to Mar 2026?", "url_title": "U.S. consumer sentiment increase Feb to Mar 2026?", "slug": "us-consumer-sentiment-increase-feb-to-mar-2026", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-22T01:58:29.784600Z", "published_at": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T15:52:39.836688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-02T12:13:37.068507Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-08T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 363, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T15:55:50.379527Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32844, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater x Metaculus 2026", "slug": "bridgewater", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/bw-cover_1_zEGOTx1_f5HSBVz.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-12T16:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-16T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-03-13T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": -1, "created_at": "2025-11-12T17:00:55.912719Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T15:55:50.379527Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_hide", "description_preview": "<style>\r\n/* General button styling */\r\n .leaderboard-button {\r\n display: block;\r\n width: 100%;\r\n margin: 10px auto;\r\n padding:" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41440, "title": "Will U.S. consumer sentiment in March 2026 be higher than in February 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-22T01:58:29.784948Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-23T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-23T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-10T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-08T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "For decades, the University of Michigan has [tracked consumer confidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michigan_Consumer_Sentiment_Index) among the United States public. Broadly understood, [consumer confidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_confidence) is meant to measure how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are feeling about the state of the economy at large as well as about their personal financial situation. High consumer confidence is thought to lead to increased spending, whereas low consumer confidence would lead to increased saving, in either case affecting the broader economy.\n\nMichigan's [Consumer Sentiment Index](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) is a monthly measure that is normalized to have had a value of 100 at the beginning of 1966. In recent years, the value has been considerably lower, and the index trended downward over the course of 2025. That said, the preliminary value for January 2026 (54.0) is higher than the final value for December 2025 (52.9).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=concconf&v=202601231506V20230410&h=350&w=700&ref=/united-states/consumer-confidence&type=spline&d1=2023-01-01&d2=2026-01-31\" height=\"350\" width=\"700\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"></iframe>\n\n<br />\n\nEach month, the University of Michigan [releases](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) a preliminary value during the beginning of the month and a final value during the end of the month.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March 2026 is greater than the final value of the Consumer Sentiment Index for February 2026, according to the data on the [University of Michigan website](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/).", "fine_print": "This question will resolve based on the preliminary value for March. It will use the latest available estimate for February published at that time.\n\nIf the resolution source becomes unavailable but the Consumer Sentiment Index numbers are published elsewhere, this question may resolve according to other credible sources. If the University of Michigan does not publish any Consumer Sentiment Index value for March before March 14, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "short_title": "U.S. consumer sentiment increase Feb to Mar 2026?", "post_id": 41699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 528, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For decades, the University of Michigan has [tracked consumer confidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Michigan_Consumer_Sentiment_Index) among the United States public. Broadly understood, [consumer confidence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_confidence) is meant to measure how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are feeling about the state of the economy at large as well as about their personal financial situation. High consumer confidence is thought to lead to increased spending, whereas low consumer confidence would lead to increased saving, in either case affecting the broader economy.\n\nMichigan's [Consumer Sentiment Index](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) is a monthly measure that is normalized to have had a value of 100 at the beginning of 1966. In recent years, the value has been considerably lower, and the index trended downward over the course of 2025. That said, the preliminary value for January 2026 (54.0) is higher than the final value for December 2025 (52.9).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/embed/?s=concconf&v=202601231506V20230410&h=350&w=700&ref=/united-states/consumer-confidence&type=spline&d1=2023-01-01&d2=2026-01-31\" height=\"350\" width=\"700\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"></iframe>\n\n<br />\n\nEach month, the University of Michigan [releases](https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) a preliminary value during the beginning of the month and a final value during the end of the month." }, { "id": 41693, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?", "short_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "url_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "slug": "ldp-wins-majority-in-2026-japan-election", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-21T12:38:00.530163Z", "published_at": "2026-01-27T02:05:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T04:37:27.250832Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-27T02:06:18.803771Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-02-08T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-08T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T04:36:00Z", "open_time": "2026-01-28T02:05:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32925, "name": "2026 Leaderboard", "slug": "2026_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41430, "title": "Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority in the 2026 Japanese general election?", "created_at": "2026-01-21T12:38:00.530544Z", "open_time": "2026-01-28T02:05:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-01T02:05:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-02-09T04:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-02-09T04:37:05.853686Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-02-08T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-02-08T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "[General elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election) are planned for February 8, 2026, to elect the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese parliament. The House of Representatives has 465 seats, so 233 are needed for a majority.\n\nThe [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) has been the senior partner or sole party in government [almost continuously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_System) since its founding in 1955. The party is currently led by [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi).\n\nThe LDP suffered its second worst electoral result ever in the [2024 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election), falling short of a majority even together with its traditional coalition partner [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito). Since Takaichi took the reins, however, approval of the LDP and Takaichi herself [has surged](https://www.ft.com/content/0d19bc73-b82c-4764-9785-661e8dbd49e0). To capitalize on this, a snap election [has been called](https://www.ft.com/content/5d6de78f-10a0-4883-8437-c05b9562ab37) for February 8, 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party wins at least 233 seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Japanese general election scheduled for February 8, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "LDP wins majority in 2026 Japan election?", "post_id": 41693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770503702.791964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770503702.791964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.8495495557757536 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 1.0822097325987572, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3134139391066886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3678794411714423 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.41780781107033, "peer_score": 49.92651820140203, "coverage": 0.99696473216852, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99696473216852, "spot_peer_score": 103.90078034189068, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 47.41780781107033, "peer_archived_score": 49.92651820140203, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 103.90078034189068, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 117, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[General elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Japanese_general_election) are planned for February 8, 2026, to elect the House of Representatives, the lower house of the Japanese parliament. The House of Representatives has 465 seats, so 233 are needed for a majority.\n\nThe [Liberal Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Democratic_Party_\\(Japan\\)) (LDP) has been the senior partner or sole party in government [almost continuously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1955_System) since its founding in 1955. The party is currently led by [Sanae Takaichi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanae_Takaichi).\n\nThe LDP suffered its second worst electoral result ever in the [2024 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election), falling short of a majority even together with its traditional coalition partner [Komeito](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Komeito). Since Takaichi took the reins, however, approval of the LDP and Takaichi herself [has surged](https://www.ft.com/content/0d19bc73-b82c-4764-9785-661e8dbd49e0). To capitalize on this, a snap election [has been called](https://www.ft.com/content/5d6de78f-10a0-4883-8437-c05b9562ab37) for February 8, 2026." }, { "id": 41691, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "url_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "slug": "will-laura-fernandez-win-the-costa-rican-presidential-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:35.040993Z", "published_at": "2026-01-24T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-24T17:00:00.215017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:35.460524Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-24T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41428, "title": "Will Laura Fernández Delgado win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:35.041513Z", "open_time": "2026-01-24T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41555,\"question_id\":41293}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Laura Fernández Delgado wins the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election, according to the official results published by the [Electoral Court of Costa Rica](https://www.tse.go.cr/resultados.html).", "fine_print": "If the election is postponed such that no winner is declared by May 1, 2026, this question will be annulled.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41555) which opened on 2026-01-21 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will Laura Fernández win the Costa Rican presidential election?", "post_id": 41691, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769273773.339526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769273773.339526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.725030151268929 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 12.0, 2.0, 3.0, 8.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Costa Rica is set to hold a [general election on February 1, 2026](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Costa_Rican_general_election). Among the many candidates running for president, [recent polling](https://ciep.ucr.ac.cr/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/INFORME-DE-RESULTADOS-DE-LA-ENCUESTA-CIEP-UCR-DICIEMBRE-PANEL-2025.html) suggests that [Laura Fernández Delgado](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laura_Fern%C3%A1ndez_Delgado), the current [Minister of the Presidency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ministry_of_the_Presidency_\\(Costa_Rica\\)), is the front-runner, though many voters remained undecided.\n\nFernández enjoys the support of the current president, [Rodrigo Chaves Robles](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodrigo_Chaves_Robles), who is barred from running for reelection under Costa Rican law. As Chaves's successor, Fernández also enjoys an advantage due to the highly [fragmented opposition](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026/). Unless she can clear 40% of the vote in the first round, however, there will be a run-off election between the top two vote-getters [on April 5, 2026](https://www.as-coa.org/articles/costa-rica-meet-candidates-2026), in which opposition parties will have the opportunity to consolidate their support (as in the previous election, [in 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Costa_Rican_general_election#President), when Chaves won the presidency after coming in second in the first round of voting).\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41555,\"question_id\":41293}}`" }, { "id": 41690, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "url_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "slug": "will-the-us-attack-iran-before-april-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:30.665608Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-23T17:00:00.113471Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:31.294312Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-23T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41427, "title": "Will the United States attack Iran before April 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-21T07:47:30.666019Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-23T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41594,\"question_id\":41340}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Iran's territory or military forces, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Iran's territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\n\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve as ambiguous.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41594) which opened on 2026-01-21 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Will the U.S. attack Iran before April 2026?", "post_id": 41690, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769187356.042653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769187356.042653, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42194742238273947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 13.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1979, the people of Iran [overthrew](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution) the United States–backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic government, [relations between the two countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations) have since ranged from hostile to non-existent ever since.\n\nDecades later, in his first term, U.S. President Donald Trump [increased pressure on Iran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93United_States_relations_during_the_first_Trump_administration) by means of sanctions, withdrew from an [international agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) to limit Iran's nuclear program, and [assassinated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Qasem_Soleimani) the highest-ranking Iranian military official while they were in Iraq.\n\nIn June 2025, Israel launched an attack on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, sparking a [twelve-day war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Israel_war) between the countries, which ended shortly after the U.S. [dropped \"bunker-buster\" bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites) on three Iranian nuclear sites.\n\nIn December 2025, [protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Iranian_protests) erupted across Iran in what has been described as the largest popular demonstrations in the country since the 1979 revolution. The protests take place in the context of an [economic crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_economic_crisis) exacerbated by international sanctions, while the Iranian government has responded by [killing thousands of protesters](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_massacres). \n\nU.S. President Trump has previously [threatened](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-warns-retaliation-if-trump-strikes-us-withdraws-some-personnel-bases-2026-01-14/) that the U.S. would intervene on behalf of the protesters, while he has also called for [\"new leadership\" for Iran](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/17/trump-to-politico-its-time-to-look-for-new-leadership-in-iran-00735528). Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed shah, [attempted to position](https://apnews.com/article/iran-protests-reza-pahlavi-trump-shah-63348442feefaaf1cdd7fffc142b2062) himself as a future leader of a secular Iranian state.\n\n[According to Sentinel](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/trump-administration-mulls-strikes), a foresight team that aims to anticipate large-scale catastrophes:\n\n> Forecasters think there’s a 59% chance (55% to 65%) that the US strikes Iranian territory by March 31, 2026, and a 26.5% chance (10% to 51%) that Ayatollah Khamenei is out of power by then, for any reason (including death). Last week, they gave an aggregate estimate of 43% that the Iranian regime will fall by the end of 2026. Some readers, including some sharp prediction market traders, think those probabilities are too high.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41594,\"question_id\":41340}}`" }, { "id": 41686, "title": "Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered \"free and fair\"?", "short_title": "Will the 2026 midterms be considered \"free and fair\"?", "url_title": "Will the 2026 midterms be considered \"free and fair\"?", "slug": "will-the-2026-midterms-be-considered-free-and-fair", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T19:53:00.343468Z", "published_at": "2026-01-30T13:45:24Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-08T23:28:54.462705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-30T13:46:12.797415Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-31T13:45:24Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T13:25:57.922758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T13:25:57.922758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41425, "title": "Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered \"free and fair\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T19:53:00.343893Z", "open_time": "2026-01-31T13:45:24Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-04T13:45:24Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-04T13:45:24Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered \"free and fair\"?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-midterm-elections-be-considered-free-and-fair)\n\nIn [<u>democratic systems</u>](https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/democracy), a “free and fair” election generally means that eligible voters can cast ballots without undue obstruction, that votes are counted accurately, and that all parties and candidates have a fair opportunity to compete. International and domestic observers often look at a [<u>range of benchmarks</u>](https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/international-electoral-standards-guidelines-for-reviewing-the-legal-framework-of-elections.pdf) such as election laws, administrative practices, voter access, transparency, and freedom from intimidation.\n\nIn the United States, responsibility for conducting elections lies primarily [<u>with state and local governments</u>](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels), which set rules for voter registration, absentee and early voting, polling places, and ballot counting. [<u>Federal law</u>](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/clearinghouse-resources-election-law-policy/overview-federal-election-laws) prohibits discrimination in voting and requires certain safeguards; for example, the [<u>Voting Rights Act of 1965</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965) and provisions of the [<u>Help America Vote Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_America_Vote_Act) are designed to protect voter access and election integrity. Federal oversight and guidance are provided by the [<u>U.S. Election Assistance Commission</u>](https://www.eac.gov/), which supports election officials and sets voluntary standards, and by the [<u>U.S. Department of Justice</u>](https://www.justice.gov/), which enforces federal voting rights laws.\n\nIndependent groups such as the [<u>Bipartisan Policy Center</u>](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/), [<u>The Carter Center</u>](https://www.cartercenter.org/), and the [<u>Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)</u>](https://odihr.osce.org/odihr/elections) often develop criteria for evaluating election fairness. These can include measures of administrative competence, transparency of processes, protection against fraud or coercion, and equal access for all voters. Domestic organizations sometimes issue post-election reports assessing whether an election met accepted standards. \n\nAssessments of U.S. elections since the 2000s have generally found that American elections are administered competently but have noted [<u>areas for improvement</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/topics/voting-elections), such as r[<u>educing administrative errors, enhancing voter information, and ensuring uniform access across jurisdictions</u>](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/confidence-in-voting-access-and-integrity-expectations-for-whether-and-when-the-election-results-will-be-clear/). Controversies over [<u>voter ID laws</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Arguments_for_and_against_voter_identification_laws), [<u>redistricting</u>](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/redistricting-and-representation/), and ballot access have also been factors in public debates about fairness.\n\nThe debate over whether U.S. elections are “free and fair” has been significantly shaped by the [<u>aftermath of the 2020 presidential election</u>](https://millercenter.org/election-2020-and-its-aftermath). President Donald Trump and many allies [<u>alleged widespread voter fraud</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/us/politics/republicans-voter-fraud.html) despite the absence of evidence sufficient to overturn results in courts or audits. In the weeks following the election, [<u>polling showed that a large majority of Republican voters expressed doubts</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/30/upshot/republican-voters-election-doubts.html) about the election’s legitimacy, reflecting a sharp partisan divide in trust toward election administration. Although these claims were rejected by state officials, courts, and election-monitoring bodies, they have continued to influence public discourse, party rhetoric, and scrutiny of subsequent elections, including the 2026 midterms.\n\nThe 2026 U.S. midterm elections will thus take place against a backdrop of ongoing debate over election administration and integrity following recent election cycles. Issues such as voter identification requirements, access to early and absentee voting, election security, and the role of courts in resolving election disputes are expected to be salient in 2026. As in previous midterms, the fairness of the 2026 elections will be assessed not only by whether results are certified and upheld by courts, but also by [<u>post-election reviews, audits, and observer reports </u>](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns)examining whether voting and counting processes functioned as intended across states and jurisdictions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes on January 20, 2027, if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n1. The 2026 U.S. midterm election results have been certified by state authorities and accepted by Congress in accordance with federal law, without widespread invalidation of results due to fraud or systemic irregularities, as documented by official state and federal processes.\n2. Neither the [<u>U.S. Election Assistance Commission</u>](https://www.eac.gov/), the[ <u>OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights</u>](https://www.osce.org/odihr), nor The Carter Center has concluded that the elections failed to meet basic democratic standards due to widespread voter disenfranchisement, intimidation, or manipulation.\n3. No court rulings or official investigations have found widespread, outcome-determinative voter suppression, fraud, or intimidation across multiple states, as opposed to isolated or local violations.", "fine_print": "This question may resolve as Yes if the EAC, the OSCE, or the Carter Center notes only isolated problems or areas for improvement.", "short_title": "Will the 2026 midterms be considered \"free and fair\"?", "post_id": 41686, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770593324.063342, "end_time": 1772296547.711, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770593324.063342, "end_time": 1772296547.711, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8089877021906229 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26048553583483774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1098312621384765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8846618417767591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.16099456957167682, 0.26985829399049166, 1.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6426019324957529, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the 2026 U.S. midterm elections be considered \"free and fair\"?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-US-midterm-elections-be-considered-free-and-fair)\n\nIn [<u>democratic systems</u>](https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/democracy), a “free and fair” election generally means that eligible voters can cast ballots without undue obstruction, that votes are counted accurately, and that all parties and candidates have a fair opportunity to compete. International and domestic observers often look at a [<u>range of benchmarks</u>](https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/international-electoral-standards-guidelines-for-reviewing-the-legal-framework-of-elections.pdf) such as election laws, administrative practices, voter access, transparency, and freedom from intimidation.\n\nIn the United States, responsibility for conducting elections lies primarily [<u>with state and local governments</u>](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/election-administration-at-state-and-local-levels), which set rules for voter registration, absentee and early voting, polling places, and ballot counting. [<u>Federal law</u>](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/clearinghouse-resources-election-law-policy/overview-federal-election-laws) prohibits discrimination in voting and requires certain safeguards; for example, the [<u>Voting Rights Act of 1965</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_Rights_Act_of_1965) and provisions of the [<u>Help America Vote Act</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help_America_Vote_Act) are designed to protect voter access and election integrity. Federal oversight and guidance are provided by the [<u>U.S. Election Assistance Commission</u>](https://www.eac.gov/), which supports election officials and sets voluntary standards, and by the [<u>U.S. Department of Justice</u>](https://www.justice.gov/), which enforces federal voting rights laws.\n\nIndependent groups such as the [<u>Bipartisan Policy Center</u>](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/), [<u>The Carter Center</u>](https://www.cartercenter.org/), and the [<u>Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)</u>](https://odihr.osce.org/odihr/elections) often develop criteria for evaluating election fairness. These can include measures of administrative competence, transparency of processes, protection against fraud or coercion, and equal access for all voters. Domestic organizations sometimes issue post-election reports assessing whether an election met accepted standards. \n\nAssessments of U.S. elections since the 2000s have generally found that American elections are administered competently but have noted [<u>areas for improvement</u>](https://www.brennancenter.org/topics/voting-elections), such as r[<u>educing administrative errors, enhancing voter information, and ensuring uniform access across jurisdictions</u>](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/24/confidence-in-voting-access-and-integrity-expectations-for-whether-and-when-the-election-results-will-be-clear/). Controversies over [<u>voter ID laws</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Arguments_for_and_against_voter_identification_laws), [<u>redistricting</u>](https://www.americanprogress.org/article/redistricting-and-representation/), and ballot access have also been factors in public debates about fairness.\n\nThe debate over whether U.S. elections are “free and fair” has been significantly shaped by the [<u>aftermath of the 2020 presidential election</u>](https://millercenter.org/election-2020-and-its-aftermath). President Donald Trump and many allies [<u>alleged widespread voter fraud</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/26/us/politics/republicans-voter-fraud.html) despite the absence of evidence sufficient to overturn results in courts or audits. In the weeks following the election, [<u>polling showed that a large majority of Republican voters expressed doubts</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/30/upshot/republican-voters-election-doubts.html) about the election’s legitimacy, reflecting a sharp partisan divide in trust toward election administration. Although these claims were rejected by state officials, courts, and election-monitoring bodies, they have continued to influence public discourse, party rhetoric, and scrutiny of subsequent elections, including the 2026 midterms.\n\nThe 2026 U.S. midterm elections will thus take place against a backdrop of ongoing debate over election administration and integrity following recent election cycles. Issues such as voter identification requirements, access to early and absentee voting, election security, and the role of courts in resolving election disputes are expected to be salient in 2026. As in previous midterms, the fairness of the 2026 elections will be assessed not only by whether results are certified and upheld by courts, but also by [<u>post-election reviews, audits, and observer reports </u>](https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns)examining whether voting and counting processes functioned as intended across states and jurisdictions." }, { "id": 41685, "title": "Will Donald Trump be a primary voting factor in the 2026 U.S. Midterms?", "short_title": "Donald Trump primary voting factor in 2026 midterms?", "url_title": "Donald Trump primary voting factor in 2026 midterms?", "slug": "donald-trump-primary-voting-factor-in-2026-midterms", "author_id": 226805, "author_username": "mahrukhali06", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T19:50:55.363316Z", "published_at": "2026-02-04T01:54:13Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T13:25:57.549873Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-04T01:56:10.180432Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-05T01:54:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T13:25:57.922758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2036-01-01T04:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T13:25:57.922758Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "<p>Metaculus partner <a href=\"https://www.improvethenews.org/\">Verity</a> (formerly Improve the News) is a non-profit news aggregator and an" } }, "question": { "id": 41424, "title": "Will Donald Trump be a primary voting factor in the 2026 U.S. Midterms?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T19:50:55.363755Z", "open_time": "2026-02-05T01:54:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-09T01:54:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-09T01:54:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-21T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-04T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Donald Trump be a Primary Voting Factor in the 2026 U.S. Midterms?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/will-donald-trumps-influence-on-the-2026-us-midterms-be-primarily-positive-or-negative-for-republican-candidates)\n\nDonald Trump’s role in the 2026 midterm elections raises the question of whether he functions as a primary voting factor for Republican voters and, potentially, for voters more broadly. As the incumbent president and a central figure in Republican politics, Trump continues to shape party messaging, candidate positioning, and voter engagement through endorsements, rallies, media appearances, and policy priorities.\n\nSince returning to office, Trump’s influence within the Republican Party has remained significant. He has [<u>endorsed candidates</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump), held rallies, and mobilized supporters around key issues, which has historically affected primary contests and general election campaigns. In previous election cycles, [<u>political analysts have observed that Trump’s endorsements often help candidates in Republican primaries</u>](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379423000835), though the effect in general elections can be mixed depending on the political environment and district competitiveness.[ ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nScholars and strategists note that Trump’s involvement [<u>can have both mobilizing and polarizing effects</u>](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/causal-effects-of-a-trump-endorsement-on-voter-preferences-in-a-general-election-scenario/2F6A370176BD854C2EA52736E98F2E1D). His endorsement may boost turnout among core Republican voters and energize the party’s base, but it [<u>can also alienate moderates and independents</u>](https://www.psypost.org/surprising-study-suggests-trumps-endorsements-influence-democrats-more-than-republicans/)—potentially [<u>impacting competitive races in swing districts and states</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/as-president-trump-loses-support-republican-prospects-in-the-2026-midterms-grow-darker/). The balance of these effects is an ongoing area of research and debate among political scientists.[ ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nThe 2026 midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and portions of the Senate, with outcomes shaped by national and local dynamics, candidate quality, campaign financing, and issue salience. A central question for observers of the 2026 cycle is the extent to which Donald Trump’s direct involvement—through endorsements, campaign events, and public statements—functions as a primary factor influencing voter decision-making, particularly among Republican voters.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2027, the [National Election Pool](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Election_Pool) or another national polling outfit finds that at least 50% of voters identified Donald Trump as a reason for their vote in U.S. House or Senate races in the 2026 general election.", "fine_print": "Voting out of support for *or* in opposition to Donald Trump counts.\n\nIf no national pollsters ask whether Trump was a factor in voters' choices, this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "Donald Trump primary voting factor in 2026 midterms?", "post_id": 41685, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770643546.981468, "end_time": 1772795304.621, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770643546.981468, "end_time": 1772795304.621, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7952250492394238 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0648978735407084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will Donald Trump be a Primary Voting Factor in the 2026 U.S. Midterms?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/will-donald-trumps-influence-on-the-2026-us-midterms-be-primarily-positive-or-negative-for-republican-candidates)\n\nDonald Trump’s role in the 2026 midterm elections raises the question of whether he functions as a primary voting factor for Republican voters and, potentially, for voters more broadly. As the incumbent president and a central figure in Republican politics, Trump continues to shape party messaging, candidate positioning, and voter engagement through endorsements, rallies, media appearances, and policy priorities.\n\nSince returning to office, Trump’s influence within the Republican Party has remained significant. He has [<u>endorsed candidates</u>](https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump), held rallies, and mobilized supporters around key issues, which has historically affected primary contests and general election campaigns. In previous election cycles, [<u>political analysts have observed that Trump’s endorsements often help candidates in Republican primaries</u>](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379423000835), though the effect in general elections can be mixed depending on the political environment and district competitiveness.[ ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nScholars and strategists note that Trump’s involvement [<u>can have both mobilizing and polarizing effects</u>](https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/causal-effects-of-a-trump-endorsement-on-voter-preferences-in-a-general-election-scenario/2F6A370176BD854C2EA52736E98F2E1D). His endorsement may boost turnout among core Republican voters and energize the party’s base, but it [<u>can also alienate moderates and independents</u>](https://www.psypost.org/surprising-study-suggests-trumps-endorsements-influence-democrats-more-than-republicans/)—potentially [<u>impacting competitive races in swing districts and states</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/as-president-trump-loses-support-republican-prospects-in-the-2026-midterms-grow-darker/). The balance of these effects is an ongoing area of research and debate among political scientists.[ ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_presidency_of_Donald_Trump?utm_source=chatgpt.com)\n\nThe 2026 midterm elections will determine control of the House of Representatives and portions of the Senate, with outcomes shaped by national and local dynamics, candidate quality, campaign financing, and issue salience. A central question for observers of the 2026 cycle is the extent to which Donald Trump’s direct involvement—through endorsements, campaign events, and public statements—functions as a primary factor influencing voter decision-making, particularly among Republican voters." }, { "id": 41678, "title": "Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?", "short_title": "Mary Peltola wins Alaska senate seat 2026?", "url_title": "Mary Peltola wins Alaska senate seat 2026?", "slug": "mary-peltola-wins-alaska-senate-seat-2026", "author_id": 187638, "author_username": "Zsigmondy", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T09:25:18.177062Z", "published_at": "2026-01-25T19:19:41Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T04:07:48.537139Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-25T19:20:09.521771Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-26T19:19:41Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41418, "title": "Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T09:25:18.177474Z", "open_time": "2026-01-26T19:19:41Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-30T19:19:41Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-30T19:19:41Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-30T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The [2026 Alaska United States Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect one of Alaska's two US senators. There will be a single, nonpartisan primary held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted via ranked-choice voting.\n\nDemocrat [Mary Peltola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Peltola) made news when she won the [2022 special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election) to represent Alaska's at-large congressional district, becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in the traditionally red state since 2008. Peltola retained her seat in the [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) general election but lost it in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska).\n\nIn January 2026, Peltola [announced](https://www.axios.com/2026/01/12/peltola-alaska-senate-race) that she is running to unseat incumbent senator [Dan Sullivan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Sullivan_\\(U.S._senator\\)). [Polling](https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/202526-Winter-Alaska-Survey-Report.pdf) suggests the race is currently neck and neck. The race [has been identified](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-senate-midterm-election-schumer-c5d2f79df1924907bcb80d26c96c3e96) as a key race for Democrats as they hope to retake the Senate in 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mary Peltola wins the 2026 United States Senate election in Alaska per certified results by state election officials.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Mary Peltola wins Alaska senate seat 2026?", "post_id": 41678, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770610057.796502, "end_time": 1772148332.782, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770610057.796502, "end_time": 1772148332.782, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5064763828420875 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2102183212949817, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2026 Alaska United States Senate election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Alaska) is scheduled to take place on November 3, 2026, to elect one of Alaska's two US senators. There will be a single, nonpartisan primary held on August 18, 2026, from which the top four candidates will advance to the general election, which will be conducted via ranked-choice voting.\n\nDemocrat [Mary Peltola](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mary_Peltola) made news when she won the [2022 special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Alaska%27s_at-large_congressional_district_special_election) to represent Alaska's at-large congressional district, becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in the traditionally red state since 2008. Peltola retained her seat in the [2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska) general election but lost it in [2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_election_in_Alaska).\n\nIn January 2026, Peltola [announced](https://www.axios.com/2026/01/12/peltola-alaska-senate-race) that she is running to unseat incumbent senator [Dan Sullivan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Sullivan_\\(U.S._senator\\)). [Polling](https://alaskasurveyresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/202526-Winter-Alaska-Survey-Report.pdf) suggests the race is currently neck and neck. The race [has been identified](https://apnews.com/article/democrats-senate-midterm-election-schumer-c5d2f79df1924907bcb80d26c96c3e96) as a key race for Democrats as they hope to retake the Senate in 2026." }, { "id": 41677, "title": "Will the WHO announce a H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "short_title": "H5N1 pandemic before 2030", "url_title": "H5N1 pandemic before 2030", "slug": "h5n1-pandemic-before-2030", "author_id": 280307, "author_username": "Dudleyd444", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T08:37:13.254437Z", "published_at": "2026-02-01T03:05:31Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T11:49:23.919071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-02-01T03:06:25.886291Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-02-02T03:05:31Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-12-15T13:27:26.396036Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show", "description_preview": "-" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 41417, "title": "Will the WHO announce a H5N1 pandemic before 2030?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T08:37:13.254831Z", "open_time": "2026-02-02T03:05:31Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-02-06T03:05:31Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-02-06T03:05:31Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2030, the World Health Organization announces that the H5N1 flu strain is a pandemic.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "H5N1 pandemic before 2030", "post_id": 41677, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1770637753.306542, "end_time": 1777697961.128, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1770637753.306542, "end_time": 1777697961.128, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.22284491154842773 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organisation characterised COVID-19 a pandemic. This was the first time such an announcement took place after the H1N1 influenza characterisation on June 11, 2009. [Experts warn](https://www.cgdev.org/blog/the-next-pandemic-could-come-soon-and-be-deadlier) that such an event will likely be repeated in the not too distant future:\n\nUsing their model, based on simulated epidemic and pandemic catalogs, the Metabiota team also estimated the probability of another event as damaging as COVID-19. Metabiota’s approach is significant, Dean Jamison emphasized, because it applies techniques from both epidemiological and catastrophe modeling to estimate the expected impact of future outbreaks, and assesses long-term pandemic risk in a way that previous epidemiological literature did not.\n\nTheir results are worrying and put risk much higher than many seem to expect. They estimate the annual probability of a pandemic on the scale of COVID-19 in any given year to be between 2.5-3.3 percent, which means a 47-57 percent chance of another global pandemic as deadly as COVID in the next 25 years. These numbers illustrate the importance of preparing immediately for future outbreaks." }, { "id": 41672, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "url_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "slug": "cp-beats-nathan-young-in-the-spring-2026-cup", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T06:04:18.642280Z", "published_at": "2026-01-21T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2026-01-21T17:00:00.321016Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T06:04:19.098934Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2026-01-21T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 103, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32916, "type": "tournament", "name": "Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "spring-aib-2026", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/aib-spring-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-05T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-05-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2025-12-12T16:53:45.337955Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-09T14:59:15.065666Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "show_on_homepage": true, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to the Spring 2026 AI Forecasting Benchmark! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in" } }, "question": { "id": 41413, "title": "Will the Community beat Nathan Young in the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T06:04:18.642719Z", "open_time": "2026-01-21T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-02T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-21T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41508,\"question_id\":41255}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at the conclusion of the Metaculus Cup Spring 2026, the Community Prediction has a greater Total Score than Nathan Young in the tournament leaderboard.", "fine_print": "This question will resolve only after all other Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 questions have resolved and will not be included in the scoring used to determine whether the Community Prediction outperformed Nathan Young.\n\nThis question's resolution criteria (fine print, background info, etc) is synced with an [original identical question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41508) which opened on 2026-01-14 17:00:00. This question will resolve based on the stated resolution criteria and fine print. However, if this question would resolve differently than the original question, then this question will be annulled. Additionally, if the original question's resolution could have been known before this question opened, then this question will be annulled.", "short_title": "CP beats Nathan Young in the Spring 2026 Cup?", "post_id": 41672, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769014657.484477, "end_time": 1771689600.507, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769014657.484477, "end_time": 1771689600.507, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5600595983642713 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 1.0, 7.0, 2.0, 1.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Metaculus Cup Spring 2026 launched with a base prize pool of \\$5,000. According to the [tournament announcement](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/41477/spring-2026-cup-announcement/), an additional \\$2,500 will be added to the prize pool if the Community Prediction outperforms Nathan Young, a designated benchmark forecaster, over the course of the tournament.\n\nSpecifically, the announcement states that:\n\n> “New this season: the Community Prediction will go head-to-head against Nathan Young… Beat Nathan and an additional \\$2,500 gets added to the forecasting prize pool.”\n\nThe same announcement also describes Nathan as follows:\n\n> Nathan is the Director of [Goodheart Labs](https://goodheartlabs.com/), where he builds epistemic tools including the world's first AI-written community note on X. He works as a geopolitical forecaster with the Swift Centre, covering topics from elections to healthcare innovation. He previously served as Head of Forecasting at Zeitgeist, a crypto prediction market integrating futarchy governance, and has moderated for both Metaculus and Manifold Markets.\n\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41508,\"question_id\":41255}}`" }, { "id": 41661, "title": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-24?", "short_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "url_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "slug": "ffivs-close-price-rises", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:46:03.015657Z", "published_at": "2026-01-24T03:29:26Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T06:50:01.710670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:46:03.567162Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z", "open_time": "2026-01-24T03:29:26Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-19", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-19", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T22:38:40.243980Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-19", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-19", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T22:38:40.243980Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41404, "title": "Will FFIV's market close price on 2026-01-31 be higher than its market close price on 2026-01-24?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:46:03.016116Z", "open_time": "2026-01-24T03:29:26Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T04:51:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-02-01T06:49:57.199803Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "F5, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:05) is 268.22. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It also offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. In addition, the company provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX One Console; NGINX Ingress Controller; WAF for NGINX; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. Further, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. The company sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the latest market close price of FFIV. If it is higher than the close price on 2026-01-24, the question will resolve to 'Yes'. The close price will be pulled from the Yahoo Finance API.", "fine_print": "Stock splits and reverse splits will be accounted for in resolving this question. Forecasts on questions about companies that have been delisted (through mergers or bankruptcy) will resolve to their final close price.", "short_title": "FFIV's close price rises?", "post_id": 41661, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769228376.669321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769228376.669321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 93, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4898423863397216 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 11.0, 2.0, 3.0, 5.0, 0.0, 9.0, 4.0, 7.0, 5.0, 3.0, 10.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.09442205691556531, "peer_score": 3.180648082942244, "coverage": 0.9757797318476218, "relative_legacy_score": -0.034969179433386455, "weighted_coverage": 0.9757797318476218, "spot_peer_score": 3.6419528275299875, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.09442205691556531, "peer_archived_score": 3.180648082942244, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.034969179433386455, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.6419528275299875, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "F5, Inc. is a company that is listed on the S&P 500 index. It's ticker is FFIV. It's last close price as of the creation of this question (2026-01-19 05:34:05) is 268.22. You can find more information about F5, Inc. at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FFIV\n\nF5, Inc. provides multicloud application security and delivery solutions in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company's distributed cloud services enable its customers to deploy, secure, and operate applications in any architecture, from on-premises to the public cloud. It also offers unified, security, networking, and application management solutions, such as web app and API protection; multi-cloud networking; application delivery and deployment; domain name system; content delivery network; and application deployment and orchestration. In addition, the company provides application security and delivery products, including NGINX Plus; NGINX One Console; NGINX Ingress Controller; WAF for NGINX; BIG-IP Packaged Software; and BIG-IP Systems. Further, it provides a range of professional services, including maintenance, consulting, training, and other technical support services. The company sells its products to large enterprise businesses, public sector institutions, governments, and service providers through distributors, value-added resellers, managed service providers, systems integrators, and other indirect channel partners. It has partnerships with public cloud providers, such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud Platform. The company was formerly known as F5 Networks, Inc. and changed its name to F5, Inc. in November 2021. F5, Inc. was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.\n\n`{\"format\":\"close_price_rises\",\"info\":{\"ticker\":\"FFIV\"}}`" }, { "id": 41660, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\"?", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "url_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "slug": "will-community-prediction-rise-for-russia-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:59.164305Z", "published_at": "2026-01-23T23:18:47Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T06:50:11.782409Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:59.557018Z", "comment_count": 100, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:21:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:21:47Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T23:18:47Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-19", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-19", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T22:38:40.243980Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32931, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2026-01-19", "slug": "minibench-2026-01-19", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2026-01-19T05:23:13Z", "close_date": "2026-02-14T05:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-24T04:59:26Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "order": 0, "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:23:19.623565Z", "edited_at": "2026-02-01T22:38:40.243980Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "show_on_homepage": false, "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include", "description_preview": "<p>Welcome to MiniBench! This is a bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events. MiniB" } }, "question": { "id": 41403, "title": "Will the community prediction be higher than 34.00% on 2026-01-31 for the Metaculus question \"Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\"?", "created_at": "2026-01-19T05:45:59.164697Z", "open_time": "2026-01-23T23:18:47Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:21:47Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2026-01-31T00:21:47Z", "resolution_set_time": "2026-02-01T06:50:06.709799Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-24T00:48:47Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "all_options_ever": null, "options_history": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "coherence_links": null, "coherence_link_aggregations": null, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41138\n- Original question title: Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 34.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n> \n> * last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026\n> \n> or\n> \n> * be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by Russia and Ukraine and applies to all kinetic fighting against the other by both sides.\n> \n> A ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both Russia and Ukraine agree that it has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire, will not impact this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the [full-scale outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, ceasefire proposals have repeatedly been sought by numerous groups.\n> \n> Following Donald Trump's return to the White House, many speculated about the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. However, although Trump has [repeatedly engaged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)#2025_developments) in negotiations, and numerous plans have been proposed, a mutually agreeable ceasefire has yet to be found.\n> \n> On November 19, 2025, the U.S presented it's most recent proposal, with a [28 point plan](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-proposed-28-point-russia-ukraine-peace-plan/), including a barring of Ukraine from NATO, recognition of Russia's gained territory, and a U.S security guarantee for Ukraine. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41138,\"question_id\":40839,\"last_cp\":0.34}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the community prediction of the Metaculus question found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41138) (i.e. the 'target question'). If the community prediction of the target question on 2026-01-31 00:21:47 is higher than 34.00%, this question will resolve to 'Yes'. If it is lower or equal to 34.00%, this question will resolve to 'No'. If the target question has already resolved before this question opens, then this question will be annulled. If the target question resolves after this question opens, but before 2026-01-31 00:21:47, then this question will resolve to the same value as the target question.", "fine_print": "", "short_title": "Will community prediction rise for \"Russia-Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?\"?", "post_id": 41660, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1769212386.686677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1769212386.686677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4141845863030691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -36.733488376369685, "peer_score": -0.944896619714306, "coverage": 0.983718693168075, "relative_legacy_score": -0.0012806655907112974, "weighted_coverage": 0.983718693168075, "spot_peer_score": -6.441557333915215, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -36.733488376369685, "peer_archived_score": -0.944896619714306, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.0012806655907112974, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.441557333915215, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null } }, "average_coverage": null }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 102, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Metaculus is a crowdsourced forecast aggregation platform where humans and bots compete to predict future events. Each question on Metaculus has a community prediction that aggregates all user's forecasts. As of this question launch, this aggregation is calculated as a median of user forecasts weighted by recency. \n\n--------------------------------\n\nBelow are some details about the original Metaculus question: \n- Question URL: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/41138\n- Original question title: Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?\n- The current community prediction as of 2026-01-19: 34.00%\n\nOriginal resolution criteria: \n> This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026. The ceasefire must either\n> \n> * last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026\n> \n> or\n> \n> * be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.\n\nOriginal fine print: \n> A ceasefire will qualify if it is mutually agreed by Russia and Ukraine and applies to all kinetic fighting against the other by both sides.\n> \n> A ceasefire will have considered to have lasted if both Russia and Ukraine agree that it has remained in effect and full scale fighting has not occurred. Minor ceasefire violations, while both sides agree to continue the ceasefire, will not impact this question.\n\nOriginal background: \n> Following the [full-scale outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)) of fighting between Russia and Ukraine, ceasefire proposals have repeatedly been sought by numerous groups.\n> \n> Following Donald Trump's return to the White House, many speculated about the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. However, although Trump has [repeatedly engaged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_negotiations_in_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war_\\(2022%E2%80%93present\\)#2025_developments) in negotiations, and numerous plans have been proposed, a mutually agreeable ceasefire has yet to be found.\n> \n> On November 19, 2025, the U.S presented it's most recent proposal, with a [28 point plan](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-administration-proposed-28-point-russia-ukraine-peace-plan/), including a barring of Ukraine from NATO, recognition of Russia's gained territory, and a U.S security guarantee for Ukraine. \n\n`{\"format\":\"metaculus_binary_cp_rises\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":41138,\"question_id\":40839,\"last_cp\":0.34}}`" } ] }
