Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=60
{ "count": 5948, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=80", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=40", "results": [ { "id": 39721, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)", "short_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "url_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "slug": "pope-leo-xiv-state-visits-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:07.651396Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T11:00:00.305503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:07.987156Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.958787Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T14:04:24.958787Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39100, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)", "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:07.651913Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to Türkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanon’s Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai — the country’s top Catholic cleric — told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that “the Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.”\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were “underway” for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. “There still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,” he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38653}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'United States'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \r\n\r\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if Pope Leo XIV makes a state visit to the listed country before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "To count as a state visit Pope Leo XIV must make an official visit to the country. Passing through the country's airspace, solely landing at an airport or otherwise making a transitory or personal visit will not count towards resolution.\r\n\r\nIf Pope Leo XIV ceases to be pope before 2026 all subquestions will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 39721, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757328690.09953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.0620625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757328690.09953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.0620625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9379375, 0.0620625 ], "means": [ 0.10219360223344219 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 6.0, 24.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to Türkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanon’s Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai — the country’s top Catholic cleric — told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that “the Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.”\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were “underway” for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. “There still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,” he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38653}}`" }, { "id": 39712, "title": "Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?", "short_title": "South Africa removed from FATF grey-list in fall 2025?", "url_title": "South Africa removed from FATF grey-list in fall 2025?", "slug": "south-africa-removed-from-fatf-grey-list-in-fall-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-02T19:50:04.079743Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T19:49:54.391605Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-05T21:55:01.749994Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T19:51:14.523040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T19:51:14.523040Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39091, "title": "Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?", "created_at": "2025-09-02T19:50:04.080522Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) describes itself as:\n\n> *\\[an organisation that]* leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing *\\[and]* researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate the risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action.\n\nThe FATF actively monitors countries and assess their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing abilities; those with poor records are put on the so-called grey- and black-lists. The grey-list identifies countries which are *\"actively working with the FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing,\"* and the black-list identifies countries, *\"with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.\"*\n\nSouth Africa was [added to the grey-list in February 2023](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfgeneral/outcomes-fatf-plenary-february-2023.html), however recent reports suggested that the nation was:\n\n> edging closer to leaving a global financial watchdog’s so-called gray list in October, with a team of assessors scheduled to visit the nation this month.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [South Africa Moves Closer to Exiting Dirty-Money List in October](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/south-africa-moves-closer-to-exiting-dirty-money-list-in-october)\n\nThe decision in October will be made at the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in Paris which is currently [scheduled](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/calendars/events.html) for October 20th — 24th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if South Africa is removed from the [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) grey-list (Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring) at the next FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in 2025 (currently scheduled for October 20—24).", "fine_print": "* Delays will not impact this question, unless no meeting takes place in 2025, in which case this question will be **annulled**. \n* In the event that a decision is made to remove South Africa from the FATF grey-list without the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting taking place, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758138583.923194, "end_time": 1759947361.488, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758138583.923194, "end_time": 1759947361.488, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8659338899395436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008476588784980537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.75974680042022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06549491799116114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006917845452983804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016579741893434776, 0.03232707838317249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10718094993999211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39240618529421484, 0.0, 0.2609086209840176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0232365577681515, 0.02892019494468926, 0.0, 1.0142064382463445, 0.5305354475802987, 2.3806678148955647, 0.38303938579303193, 1.2048972608099795, 0.329641294422831, 0.8034009676543773, 2.5229487751357, 0.0, 0.4570562060943923, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 472, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) describes itself as:\n\n> *\\[an organisation that]* leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing *\\[and]* researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate the risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action.\n\nThe FATF actively monitors countries and assess their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing abilities; those with poor records are put on the so-called grey- and black-lists. The grey-list identifies countries which are *\"actively working with the FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing,\"* and the black-list identifies countries, *\"with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.\"*\n\nSouth Africa was [added to the grey-list in February 2023](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfgeneral/outcomes-fatf-plenary-february-2023.html), however recent reports suggested that the nation was:\n\n> edging closer to leaving a global financial watchdog’s so-called gray list in October, with a team of assessors scheduled to visit the nation this month.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [South Africa Moves Closer to Exiting Dirty-Money List in October](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/south-africa-moves-closer-to-exiting-dirty-money-list-in-october)\n\nThe decision in October will be made at the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in Paris which is currently [scheduled](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/calendars/events.html) for October 20th — 24th." }, { "id": 39711, "title": "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?", "slug": "lisa-cook-not-a-member-of-the-federal-reserve-board-before-nov-3-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-02T14:19:59.693198Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T17:20:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T20:21:54.029858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-02T17:21:20.201585Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T20:26:07.297592Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T20:21:54.522424Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39090, "title": "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-02T14:19:59.693711Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T17:20:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-07T15:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-07T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-04T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n\nIn August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n\nAccording to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n\n> Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n\nLisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758140503.870175, "end_time": 1759556488.758, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758140503.870175, "end_time": 1759556488.758, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.35674187707941896 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09905073698188505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006908280092399992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0530372335854394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47169035316047914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4896206467933388, 1.0051363096347963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.533061789101704, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1404002467511907, 0.027172461172235558, 0.9251996690994173, 0.7008594225333291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4600858714194813, 0.0, 0.6047751043366363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8096910280571918, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.7455130732093886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06882514239645718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1333270524573957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.0, 0.561101776449919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08934312118698887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031134300295554664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16106653414689315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04559318956273326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012491892736397447 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n\nIn August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n\nAccording to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n\n> Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed — and its chair, Jerome Powell — for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes — tariffs — that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n\nLisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now." }, { "id": 39699, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?", "short_title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty before 2029?", "url_title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty before 2029?", "slug": "will-china-and-india-ratify-a-bilateral-treaty-before-2029", "author_id": 240136, "author_username": "NotTrying", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T12:14:47.636602Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T13:54:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T22:24:25.954393Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T13:55:07.243928Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T01:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:54:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39076, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T12:14:47.637026Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:54:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T13:54:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T13:54:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T01:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, both India and China formally ratify a bilateral treaty that includes one or more articles specifically addressing the territorial boundaries between the two countries.", "fine_print": "* Any ratified bilateral treaty would count as long as it mentions step towards addressing the border dispute. The treaty doesn't actually have to solve any part of the border dispute. For example, a treaty that said \"China and India agree to discuss the border at some point before 2500\" would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The treaty may address other topics and does not need to address all existing border disputes to qualify.\n* A joint communique will not count, independently of content, as communiques are not ratified.", "post_id": 39699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757888655.146478, "end_time": 1767607368.7, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757888655.146478, "end_time": 1767607368.7, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.61 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.39, 0.61 ], "means": [ 0.5106651156175649 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 1.663860439173399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh." }, { "id": 39698, "title": "Will the interest in \"25th amendment\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"25th amendment\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"25th amendment\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-25th-amendment-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:07.165014Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T22:24:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:56.921291Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:07.545153Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T03:41:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:24:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39075, "title": "Will the interest in \"25th amendment\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:07.165403Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:24:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T03:41:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:56.475767Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “25th amendment” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 94; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"25th amendment\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-09 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-10 to 2025-09-09 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"25th amendment\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-10 2025-09-09\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39698, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756768299.270924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756768299.270924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.735, 0.265 ], "means": [ 0.2953070175438596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.613293228024446, "peer_score": 5.3675892207428175, "coverage": 0.9569938070244259, "relative_legacy_score": -0.01652824361729415, "weighted_coverage": 0.9569938070244259, "spot_peer_score": 6.593122718358412, "spot_baseline_score": 55.58161550616397, "baseline_archived_score": 53.613293228024446, "peer_archived_score": 5.3675892207428175, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.01652824361729415, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.593122718358412, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 55.58161550616397 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “25th amendment” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 94; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"25th amendment\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`" }, { "id": 39697, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump truth social\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump truth social\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump truth social\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-trump-truth-social-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:06.325404Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T21:27:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:57.579133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:06.678871Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T19:21:51Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:27:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39074, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump truth social\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:06.325800Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:27:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T19:21:51Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:57.124332Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “trump truth social” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 70; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump truth social\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-08 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-09 to 2025-09-08 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"trump truth social\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-09 2025-09-08\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39697, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756766742.09394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41200000000000003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756766742.09394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41200000000000003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3699871794871795 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.44600970671793, "peer_score": 4.960113559978001, "coverage": 0.9870082866704022, "relative_legacy_score": 0.002193087035729101, "weighted_coverage": 0.9870082866704022, "spot_peer_score": 5.651269205699335, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 37.44600970671793, "peer_archived_score": 4.960113559978001, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.002193087035729101, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.651269205699335, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “trump truth social” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 70; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump truth social\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`" }, { "id": 39696, "title": "Will the interest in \"nano banana\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nano banana\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nano banana\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-nano-banana-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.587952Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T15:16:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.115166Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.921741Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T21:43:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T15:16:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39073, "title": "Will the interest in \"nano banana\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.588341Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T15:16:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T21:43:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:57.817147Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nano banana” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 81; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nano banana\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-08 is greater than the value for 2025-09-02. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-09 to 2025-09-08 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"nano banana\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-09 2025-09-08\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39696, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756831439.81187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756831439.81187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37051543209876553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.21091604053438, "peer_score": 9.701963384496462, "coverage": 0.9403235272124961, "relative_legacy_score": -0.029495650774828606, "weighted_coverage": 0.9403235272124961, "spot_peer_score": 8.153152584213373, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 41.21091604053438, "peer_archived_score": 9.701963384496462, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.029495650774828606, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.153152584213373, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nano banana” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 81; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nano banana\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`" }, { "id": 39695, "title": "Will the interest in \"joni ernst\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"joni ernst\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"joni ernst\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-joni-ernst-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:04.791591Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T13:26:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.628878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.138432Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T06:11:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T13:26:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39072, "title": "Will the interest in \"joni ernst\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:04.791985Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T13:26:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T06:11:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.311859Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “joni ernst” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 15; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"joni ernst\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-08 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-09 to 2025-09-08 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"joni ernst\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-09 2025-09-08\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756735649.736312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5415 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756735649.736312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5415 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3906984649122806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.065277999808295, "peer_score": 12.469424990923944, "coverage": 0.9442935020393796, "relative_legacy_score": 0.1067988438957822, "weighted_coverage": 0.9442935020393796, "spot_peer_score": 12.31591961927374, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 35.065277999808295, "peer_archived_score": 12.469424990923944, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.1067988438957822, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.31591961927374, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “joni ernst” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 15; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"joni ernst\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`" }, { "id": 39694, "title": "Will the interest in \"directv\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"directv\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"directv\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-directv-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.885450Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T08:17:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.180348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:04.237482Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T18:06:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T08:17:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39071, "title": "Will the interest in \"directv\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.885852Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T08:17:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T18:06:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.854480Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “directv” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 63; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"directv\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-09 is greater than the value for 2025-09-02. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-10 to 2025-09-09 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"directv\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-10 2025-09-09\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39694, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756805859.27933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756805859.27933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4319252136752139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -34.50702307675002, "peer_score": 1.4373898675112713, "coverage": 0.9678818187007197, "relative_legacy_score": -0.08924000640006738, "weighted_coverage": 0.9678818187007197, "spot_peer_score": -2.0249509442567164, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -34.50702307675002, "peer_archived_score": 1.4373898675112713, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.08924000640006738, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.0249509442567164, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “directv” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 63; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"directv\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`" }, { "id": 39693, "title": "Will the interest in \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-04 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-apple-iphone-17-pro-release-date-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.111590Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T00:10:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.690718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.485406Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T04:35:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T00:10:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39070, "title": "Will the interest in \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-04 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.112049Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T00:10:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T04:35:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.386100Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “apple iphone 17 pro release date” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 75; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"apple iphone 17 pro release date\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-04\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-04. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39693, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756949200.792639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756949200.792639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6995299145299146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -94.474744521485, "peer_score": 6.227124311573035, "coverage": 0.9450818590764646, "relative_legacy_score": 0.14165458332017572, "weighted_coverage": 0.9450818590764646, "spot_peer_score": 5.5842334620173055, "spot_baseline_score": -88.8968687611256, "baseline_archived_score": -94.474744521485, "peer_archived_score": 6.227124311573035, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.14165458332017572, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.5842334620173055, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -88.8968687611256 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “apple iphone 17 pro release date” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 75; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"apple iphone 17 pro release date\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-04\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39692, "title": "Will the interest in \"taiwan\" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"taiwan\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"taiwan\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-taiwan-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:02.327103Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T10:17:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:00.238323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:02.689874Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T19:32:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:17:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39069, "title": "Will the interest in \"taiwan\" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:02.327536Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:17:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T19:32:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.885112Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “taiwan” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 16; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"taiwan\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-10\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-11%202025-09-10\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-11%202025-09-10), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-10 is greater than the value for 2025-09-03. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-11 to 2025-09-10 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"taiwan\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-11 2025-09-10\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39692, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756897434.77625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.476 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756897434.77625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.476 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.38603086419753097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.320380814950596, "peer_score": 4.904939600486824, "coverage": 0.9792016759183673, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04882249584087564, "weighted_coverage": 0.9792016759183673, "spot_peer_score": 4.8143703187555555, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 34.320380814950596, "peer_archived_score": 4.904939600486824, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04882249584087564, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.8143703187555555, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “taiwan” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 16; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"taiwan\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-10\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-11%202025-09-10\"}}`" }, { "id": 39691, "title": "Will the interest in \"bank\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"bank\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"bank\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-bank-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:01.470303Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T18:32:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:00.915051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:01.844192Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T12:15:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T18:32:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39068, "title": "Will the interest in \"bank\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:01.470714Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T18:32:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T12:15:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:00.624356Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “bank” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 40; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"bank\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-03. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"bank\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39691, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756929525.012168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46499999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756929525.012168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46499999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3959801587301588 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 25.924399442940917, "peer_score": 1.1400372440149509, "coverage": 0.9676697642714889, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04193136473364065, "weighted_coverage": 0.9676697642714889, "spot_peer_score": 1.1903190633954674, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 25.924399442940917, "peer_archived_score": 1.1400372440149509, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04193136473364065, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1903190633954674, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “bank” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 40; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"bank\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39690, "title": "Will the interest in \"tariff\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"tariff\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"tariff\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-tariff-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:00.364666Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:16:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:01.446655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:00.857793Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T15:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:16:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39067, "title": "Will the interest in \"tariff\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:00.365071Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:16:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T15:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:01.128125Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “tariff” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 9; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"tariff\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"tariff\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39690, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727276.177464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.521 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727276.177464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.39931306306306313 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 36.09771669078512, "peer_score": 13.250034101564706, "coverage": 0.9700795307424332, "relative_legacy_score": 0.27133773124029537, "weighted_coverage": 0.9700795307424332, "spot_peer_score": 12.8229803832442, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 36.09771669078512, "peer_archived_score": 13.250034101564706, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.27133773124029537, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.8229803832442, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “tariff” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 9; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"tariff\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39689, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-trump-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.416519Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T05:24:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.189879Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.768399Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T16:47:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T05:24:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39066, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.416906Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T05:24:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T16:47:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:01.736784Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “trump” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 62; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"trump\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39689, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756707606.585793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756707606.585793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44445539906103293 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 17.74720365646575, "peer_score": 10.748779529965262, "coverage": 0.917433300194917, "relative_legacy_score": 0.26934467858452865, "weighted_coverage": 0.917433300194917, "spot_peer_score": 13.693592066176457, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 17.74720365646575, "peer_archived_score": 10.748779529965262, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.26934467858452865, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.693592066176457, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “trump” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 62; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39688, "title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "short_title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "url_title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "slug": "will-the-progress-party-secure-the-runner-up-position-in-seat-count-in-norways-167th-parliamentary-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:58.722761Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T12:09:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.731943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.021669Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T12:09:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39065, "title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:58.723156Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T12:09:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.422614Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"aa9167ba-be59-4580-9410-adbc5b02d956\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The determination for this question centers on which political group attains the second-highest total of seats in the 167th session of Norway’s Storting, following the parliamentary election scheduled for September 8, 2025. Should the election for the 167th Storting not be conducted by February 28, 2026, the answer will default to \"Other\" regardless of any other developments.\n\nIf two or more parties, including the Progress Party (FrP), are tied for the second-largest seat tally, precedence will be given to the party whose official abbreviation appears earliest in alphabetical order. Only the seat totals attributed to the specified party or coalition will be considered in this assessment.\n\nResolution will rely on the seat distribution as reported by a consensus among reputable news organizations. In the event of conflicting information or uncertainty, the official figures published by the Norwegian government (such as those available at https://www.valg.no/en/) will serve as the definitive source.\n\nAll criteria and outcomes are strictly bound to the seat counts resulting from the aforementioned election and are not influenced by subsequent changes or unofficial reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39688, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756820083.0228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7740000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756820083.0228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7740000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22599999999999987, 0.7740000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.7353030303030302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.192805092844296, "peer_score": 8.520355982536552, "coverage": 0.9572089305630436, "relative_legacy_score": -0.041440432507061205, "weighted_coverage": 0.9572089305630436, "spot_peer_score": 12.253480890417379, "spot_baseline_score": 63.040547148232356, "baseline_archived_score": 56.192805092844296, "peer_archived_score": 8.520355982536552, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.041440432507061205, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.253480890417379, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.040547148232356 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"aa9167ba-be59-4580-9410-adbc5b02d956\"}}`" }, { "id": 39687, "title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "short_title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "url_title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "slug": "will-the-ap-party-secure-a-larger-seat-count-than-any-other-group-in-norways-upcoming-parliamentary-contest", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:57.962124Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T02:10:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:03.251099Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:58.377998Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T02:10:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T21:52:08.436709Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39064, "title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:57.962552Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T02:10:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.937670Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"5fc8d45a-8762-4c69-b240-df82577551df\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The determination for this question hinges on the official allocation of seats following Norway’s parliamentary vote, which is scheduled for September 8, 2025. The focus is exclusively on the total number of seats obtained by the Ap party in the 167th session of the Storting, compared to all other parties or coalitions.\n\nShould the Norwegian parliamentary election for the 167th Storting not be conducted by February 28, 2026, the answer will default to \"Other\" regardless of any prior indications.\n\nIn scenarios where Ap and one or more other parties or coalitions achieve an identical, highest seat total, the group whose standard abbreviation appears earliest in alphabetical order will be considered as having the greater count for the purposes of this question.\n\nResolution will be based on the seat distribution as reported by a consensus of reputable news sources. If there is any uncertainty or conflicting information, the official figures published by the Norwegian government (such as those available at https://www.valg.no/en/) will serve as the definitive reference.\n\nOnly the number of seats won by the specified party or coalition is relevant; no other factors will be considered.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39687, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756784025.93692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756784025.93692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6890974025974026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.87185321886109, "peer_score": 10.243046768907393, "coverage": 0.8813047439080699, "relative_legacy_score": -0.023763558909528824, "weighted_coverage": 0.8813047439080699, "spot_peer_score": 10.627602509481036, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 46.87185321886109, "peer_archived_score": 10.243046768907393, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.023763558909528824, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.627602509481036, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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Resolution will be guided by widely recognized news sources reporting the official seat distribution; in the event of conflicting information, the definitive tally published by the Norwegian government (for example, at https://www.valg.no/en/) will be used. 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No alternative data or unofficial revisions will be considered.\n\nResolution will occur following the publication of the specified BLS report. The determination will use the value as stated in the official release, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, matching the BLS reporting standard. 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