whaleye

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2016 - 2020

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

306.1	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
83.045	Will Elizabeth Warren be the 2020 Democratic Party Nominee for President of the United States?	Binary
79.556	Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic nomination?	Binary
70.499	Will Hillary Clinton run for the office of President of the United States in 2020?	Binary
58.249	If President Donald Trump is impeached, will the impeachment trial end with conviction and removal of the sitting president?	Binary
57.380	First attempted human head transplant by end of 2020?	Binary
52.384	Will the first crewed SpaceX flight lead to the death of a crew member?	Binary
50.871	In the year ending November 2nd, 2020, will blockchain-enabled systems be applied to issues of substantial geopolitical importance?	Binary
32.124	Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020?	Binary
18.455	Will Donald Trump appoint at least one more Justice to the Supreme Court before the end of his presidency?	Binary
17.417	Will the 2020 Democratic Nominee be either Kamala Harris or Bernie Sanders?	Binary
15.982	Will Trump be reelected president if the election is called by November 10th 2020?	Binary
8.479	Will an authenticated tape of Trump saying the n-word behind the scenes of "The Apprentice" surface before Election Day, 2020?	Binary
4.473	Will the market cap of Ethereum be higher than that of Bitcoin by 2020?	Binary
1.292	Will Donald Trump complete his elected term(s) as President?	Binary
1.251	When will an AI system score an impressive defeat of a professional human in Starcraft 2?	Continuous
-	A restaurant serving cultured meat by 2021?	Binary
-5.416	Will Joe Biden be the Democratic candidate in the 2020 US presidential election?	Binary
-6.943	Will the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds target rate or lower bound to 0% or lower before January 1 2021?	Binary
-50.962	Will the United Kingdom enter a recession by 2021?	Binary
-56.227	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2021?	Binary
-125.847	Will the U.S. enter a recession by July 1, 2020?	Binary