657 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Oct 2027
9 comments
84 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
6 comments
69 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others
7 comments
80 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
34%chance
19 comments
29 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
75%chance
25% this week
3 comments
77 forecasters
What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?
Current estimate
45.1%
1 comment
1 forecaster
On what date will the Strait of Messina Bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy, first open to regular public traffic?
Current estimate
Jun 2034
2 comments
6 forecasters
Will the 2026 World Cup deliver the predicted economic boost to US host cities?
39%chance
3 comments
7 forecasters
Who will win 2026-27 LALIGA?
FC Barcelona
Real Madrid CF
AtlΓ©tico de Madrid
VIllarreal CF
16 others
61 comments
248 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?
95%chance
14% this week