664 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
18 Sep 2027
8 comments
83 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others
9 comments
98 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
1 comment
1 forecaster
On what date will the Strait of Messina Bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy, first open to regular public traffic?
Current estimate
Jun 2034
8 comments
92 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
28.1%chance
5.9% this week
1 comment
4 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in September 2026?
Current estimate
71.1k jobs
19 comments
38 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
78%chance
28% this week
4 comments
93 forecasters
What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?
Current estimate
44.9%
4 comments
7 forecasters
Who will win 2026-27 LALIGA?
FC Barcelona
Real Madrid CF
AtlΓ©tico de Madrid
VIllarreal CF
16 others
184 comments
285 forecasters
Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?
AI-Fizzle
Futurama
AI-Dystopia
Singularia
Paperclipalypse