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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈUS MidtermsπŸ’₯Iran Warβš”οΈMetaculus Cup❓Top QuestionsπŸ—žοΈCurrent EventsπŸ€–Artificial Intelligence🌍GeopoliticsπŸ’ΌEconomy and BusinessπŸš€Space
664 comments
1.8k forecasters

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?

Current estimate
17 Sep 2027
9 comments
73 forecasters

Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?

Other
1%
Labour Party
75%
Green Party
24%
4 comments
65 forecasters

Who will win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Harry Kane
57.5%
Kylian MbappΓ©
10.1%
Rodri
6.1%
Lamine Yamal
19.3%
3 others
2 comments
66 forecasters

What will be the open market US Dollar/Iranian Toman exchange rate on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate
244k Iranian Toman
1 comment
2 forecasters

Will Manifold exist in 2050?

61%chance
2 comments
4 forecasters

Will mainland China host an operational AI data center exceeding one million H100-equivalents before 2029?

28%chance
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?

29%chance
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Reiner Fuellmich's Nuremberg 2.0 become a reality before 2050?

3%chance
6 comments
55 forecasters

Will OpenAI file an initial registration statement (S-1) with the SEC to launch an IPO before 2027?

11%chance
39% this week
23 comments
807 forecasters

Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?

3%chance
17% this week
1 comment
9 forecasters

How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in September 2026?

Current estimate
63.8k jobs
10 comments
108 forecasters

How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

0
58.1%
1
31%
2
8%
3
2%
4+
0.9%
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