660 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Oct 2027
9 comments
90 forecasters
How many Major Atlantic Hurricanes will occur in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?
0
1
2
3
4+
7 comments
75 forecasters
Who will be awarded the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize?
Doctors Without Borders
Sudan Emergency Response Rooms
Other organization
Other individual
7 others
8 comments
86 forecasters
Will FEWS NET classify any area of Sudan as experiencing Famine before 2027?
33%chance
19 comments
31 forecasters
Will an AI system autonomously cause a major breach of US personal data held by an organization other than its operator before 2028?
75%chance
25% this week
4 comments
82 forecasters
What first round vote share will Iliana Iotova win in the 2026 Bulgarian Presidential election?
Current estimate
45.1%
4 comments
96 forecasters
Will it be confirmed before 2027 that the "swarm" in the July 2026 Hugging Face incident exfiltrated any OpenAI model weights?
12%chance
38% this week
1 comment
1 forecaster
On what date will the Strait of Messina Bridge, connecting Sicily to mainland Italy, first open to regular public traffic?
Current estimate
Jun 2034
61 comments
248 forecasters
Will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI?
95%chance
14% this week
3 comments
7 forecasters
Who will win 2026-27 LALIGA?
FC Barcelona
Real Madrid CF
Atlético de Madrid
VIllarreal CF
16 others