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🇺🇸US Midterms💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events🤖Artificial Intelligence🌍Geopolitics💼Economy and Business🚀Space
211 comments
310 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
6.1%
Futurama
33.1%
AI-Dystopia
26.8%
Singularia
19.5%
Paperclipalypse
14.6%
9 comments
71 forecasters

Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli election?

Likud
43%
Yashar
55.7%
Other
1.3%
8 comments
71 forecasters

What will be the US national debt on December 31, 2026?

Current estimate
41.1T $
10 comments
41 forecasters

Will smartphones disappear before 2100?

60%chance
1 comment
5 forecasters

Will South Sudan hold a national presidential election before January 1, 2027?

40%chance
3 comments
21 forecasters

Will a formal ceasefire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia be signed before January 1, 2028?

40%chance
3 comments
81 forecasters

Will Venezuela announce a presidential election before 2027?

14%chance
15 comments
17 forecasters

When will Anthropic IPO?

Current estimate
02 Dec 2026
1 comment
5 forecasters

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

70.6%chance
1 comment
8 forecasters

Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?

5%chance
38% this week
7 comments
9 forecasters

How long will the employee lockup period be after Anthropic's IPO?

90-134
16.7%
135-179
24.5%
180
16.7%
>180
26.4%
2 others
1 comment
2 forecasters

Will the Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University admit members of the public on 7+ days in 2027?

50%chance
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