4 comments
18 forecasters
Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?
53%chance
2 comments
8 forecasters
Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen
Elon Musk
Jeff & Janine Yass
Miriam Adelson
2 others
2 comments
7 forecasters
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?
50%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will a fault-tolerant quantum computer be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030?
75%chance
39 comments
127 forecasters
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?
Negotiated De-escalation
Russian Advance
Ukrainian Advance
Continued Stalemate
1 comment
11 forecasters
Will a SHA-256 Collision or Preimage be Publicly Demonstrated before 2050?
40%chance
32% this week
8 comments
69 forecasters
Will a U.S. federal agency announce new or expanded model evaluation agreements with both OpenAI and Anthropic before September 3, 2026?
4%chance
21% this week
0 comments
6 forecasters
How many jobs will the U.S. economy add in August 2026?
Current estimate
34.3k jobs
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will the European Space Agency launch the PLATO spacecraft before 2027?
0.1%chance
15% this week
1 comment
4 forecasters
Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?
43%chance
7% this week
3 comments
18 forecasters
How much will entry level software engineers at Google get paid in 2027 according to levels.fyi?
Current estimate
220k $