20 comments
84 forecasters
What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?
Current estimate
1.9 children per woman
1 comment
2 forecasters
When will the first drone cause a deadly crash of a commercial passenger flight?
Current estimate
Nov 2031
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will the majority of global computing power be based on non-silicon hardware before the end of the 21st century?
80%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster
Will a fault-tolerant quantum computer be available to commercial users before January 1, 2030?
75%chance
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will at least one paper published in Nature, Science, or Cell list an AI system as a formally credited author before January 1, 2030?
63.9%chance
0 comments
10 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on September 15, 2026?
Current estimate
6.82%
5 comments
19 forecasters
Will there be a natural disaster causing at least 10 million deaths before 2101?
53%chance
1 comment
11 forecasters
Will a SHA-256 Collision or Preimage be Publicly Demonstrated before 2050?
40%chance
32% this week
2 comments
8 forecasters
Will the European Space Agency launch the PLATO spacecraft before 2027?
0.1%chance
15% this week
2 comments
10 forecasters
Who will be the largest Republican donor in the 2026 cycle, as of September 1, 2026?
Ben Horowitz & Marc Andreessen
Elon Musk
Jeff & Janine Yass
Elizabeth & Richard Uihlein
2 others
1 comment
4 forecasters
Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?
43%chance
15% this week
39 comments
131 forecasters
What will happen in the Russia–Ukraine war between July 20 and September 1, 2026?
Negotiated De-escalation
Russian Advance
Ukrainian Advance
Continued Stalemate