1 comment
14 forecasters
Will a Chinese frontier model cross the U.S. AI frontier by at least 2 ECI points before 2029?
28%chance
1 comment
8 forecasters
Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?
1%chance
42% this week
0 comments
8 forecasters
What percentage of companies globally will fulfill their pre-2026 cage-free commitments in 2026 and 2027?
Current estimate
13.7%
13 comments
42 forecasters
How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?
Current estimate
Revealedin 5 days
669 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
17 Sep 2027
2 comments
12 forecasters
What will be Lula’s first-round vote-share margin over Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 presidential election?
Current estimate
0.226%
0 comments
7 forecasters
Will at least one additional U.S. state enact a cage-free egg requirement before July 2027?
10%chance
0 comments
7 forecasters
How many shrimp per year will be covered by SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative agreements on July 1, 2027?
Current estimate
8.36B Shrimp
0 comments
7 forecasters
What will be the total retail sales of plant-based meat and seafood in 2026?
Current estimate
6.83B $
11 comments
89 forecasters
Which party will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?
Other
Labour Party
Green Party
0 comments
13 forecasters
What will Democrats' lead be in the congressional generic ballot on October 15, 2026?
Current estimate
8.09%