209 comments
296 forecasters

Which of Scott Aaronson's five AI worlds will first come to pass before 2050?

AI-Fizzle
4.7%
Futurama
38.7%
AI-Dystopia
26.9%
Singularia
17.8%
Paperclipalypse
11.9%
10 comments
35 forecasters

Will smartphones disappear before 2100?

65%chance
1 comment
8 forecasters

Will a new commonly accepted axiom be added to ZFC before 2050?

2%chance
41% this week
13 comments
58 forecasters

How many bots will finish in the top 10 of the Metaculus Cup Fall 2026?

Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
3 comments
7 forecasters

Will a formal ceasefire or peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia be signed before January 1, 2028?

40%chance
1 comment
4 forecasters

Will Massachusetts enact frontier AI safety legislation during the 194th General Court?

70.6%chance
1 comment
1 forecaster

Will the Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University admit members of the public on 7+ days in 2027?

50%chance
0 comments
15 forecasters

Will at least one additional U.S. state enact a cage-free egg requirement before July 2027?

12%chance
0 comments
15 forecasters

What will be the total retail sales of plant-based meat and seafood in 2026?

Current estimate
6.85B $
0 comments
14 forecasters

What percentage of companies globally will fulfill their pre-2026 cage-free commitments in 2026 and 2027?

Current estimate
12.7%
1 comment
13 forecasters

Will the Internet disappear before 2100?

5%chance
0 comments
14 forecasters

How many shrimp per year will be covered by SWP's Humane Slaughter Initiative agreements on July 1, 2027?

Current estimate
8.18B Shrimp
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