Staff Picks
⚙️Labor Automation Tournament🦾FutureEval💥Iran War⚔️Metaculus Cup❓Top Questions🗞️Current Events14 comments
10 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 California gubernatorial election?
Steve Hilton19.9%
Katie Porter38.8%
Tom Steyer22.5%
Other7.9%
0 comments
108 forecasters
Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2027?
1.1%chance
1.9% this week
27 comments
183 forecasters
Will Anthropic be a designated supply chain risk on May 1, 2026?
89%chance
62.5% this week
46 comments
255 forecasters
Will the U.S. conduct a ground invasion of Iran before May 2026?
14%chance
39% this week
8 comments
8 forecasters
Will any person be charged with at least 1 death in space before 2036?
5%chance
6 comments
49 forecasters
What will the WatchCharts Overall Market Index value be on April 30, 2026?
Current estimate
32.5k $
0 comments
2 forecasters
Will an AdaptyvBio protein-binder competition have >75% of tested designs be classified as binders before 2030?
41.5%chance
3 comments
55 forecasters
Which of these market indexes will perform the best during April 2026?
S&P 50018.3%
Nikkei 22529.2%
FTSE 10014.9%
DAX 4016.2%
32 comments
264 forecasters
Who will win the 2026 Candidates Tournament?
Hikaru Nakamura0.1%
Fabiano Caruana0.1%
Anish Giri0.6%
Javokhir Sindarov98.8%
3 comments
3 forecasters
When will the next parliamentary elections be held in Greece?
Current estimate
08 May 2027