2 comments
6 forecasters
Will a new Clay Millennium Prize be awarded entirely to individual humans before 2040?
5%chance
1 comment
5 forecasters
Will a representative survey in a G20 country find, before 2050, that a majority of adults believe AI has subjective experience?
50%chance
4 comments
62 forecasters
Who will be the 2026 Time Person of the Year?
Dario Amodei
Artificial Intelligence
Astronaut(s)
Mark Carney
8 others
2 comments
78 forecasters
Which government will form after the 2026 New Zealand general election?
Labour-led
National-led
None before January
Other
4 comments
47 forecasters
What will be the all-time highest close price of NVDA before January 1, 2027?
Current estimate
Revealedin 9 hours
7 comments
83 forecasters
How many executions will be carried out in the US in 2026?
Fewer than 39
39
40
41
More than 41
682 comments
1.8k forecasters
When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
Current estimate
03 Sep 2027
2 comments
45 forecasters
How many seats will PP and Vox collectively receive in the 2026 Spanish general election?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days
2 comments
4 forecasters
Will Generative AI become part of most Americans' daily lives before 2030?
Current estimate
Revealedin 3 days
%chance
2 comments
75 forecasters
How many cultural sites in Ukraine will be damaged as of December 31, 2026, according to UNESCO?
Current estimate
584 Cultural Sites
1 comment
50 forecasters
What first round vote share will José Maria Neves win in the 2026 Cape Verdean presidential election?
Current estimate
Revealedin 2 days