PeterWildeford

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

10.55k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
204.405	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
148.263	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
134.978	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
121.657	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
116.182	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
103.199	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
102.133	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
99.752	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
99.616	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
99.233	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
99.104	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
98.769	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
98.484	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
98.289	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
97.687	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
97.063	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
96.453	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
95.951	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
95.749	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
95.639	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
95.566	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
95.441	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
95.325	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
94.557	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
94.388	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
93.790	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
93.519	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
93.422	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
93.330	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
93.306	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
93.240	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
91.920	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
91.717	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
91.402	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
91.038	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
90.646	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
90.103	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.697	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
89.395	Wagner Group Controls Moscow by July 1, 2023? (No) → Ukraine Controls DNR/LNR on Jan 1, 2024	Binary
88.606	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
88.561	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
88.428	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
87.955	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
87.627	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
86.782	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
86.034	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
85.790	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
85.738	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
85.130	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
83.859	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
81.378	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2024)	Binary
80.218	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
80.078	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
80.077	Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
78.445	Before 2024, will the US government state that Iran likely helped Hamas plan the October 7 attack on Israel?	Binary
78.180	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
77.719	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
77.269	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
76.677	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
75.680	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
75.182	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
73.391	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
73.027	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
72.485	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
72.448	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
71.988	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
71.736	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
70.973	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
65.979	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
65.900	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
64.936	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
64.113	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
63.947	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
63.684	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
63.571	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
63.287	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
62.814	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
62.381	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
61.063	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
60.900	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
60.888	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
60.884	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
60.872	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
60.759	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
60.082	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
59.166	Will the winner of stage 9 of the 2023 Tour De France also hold the yellow jersey at the end of the stage?	Binary
58.869	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
58.789	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
56.928	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
56.826	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
56.809	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Cem Uzan)	Binary
56.809	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Muharrem İnce)	Binary
56.809	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Sinan Oğan)	Binary
56.809	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ahmet Davutoğlu)	Binary
56.809	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ali Babacan)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Gültekin Uysal)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Temel Karamollaoğlu)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Pervin Buldan)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Fatih Erbakan)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Abdullah Gül)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Süleyman Soylu)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Doğu Perinçek)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Tansu Çiller)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mustafa Sarıgül)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Devlet Bahçeli)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Ekrem İmamoğlu)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Mansur Yavaş)	Binary
56.808	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Meral Akşener)	Binary
56.557	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
55.314	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
55.250	Will GPT-4 exhibit a capability jump for Leetcode questions before 2024?	Binary
54.702	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
54.458	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
53.321	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
53.046	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
52.824	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
52.709	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
52.286	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
51.600	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
50.508	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
50.202	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
50.202	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
50.201	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
50.195	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
50.163	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
50.038	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
49.990	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
49.807	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
49.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
49.531	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
49.193	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
48.757	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
48.451	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
47.756	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
47.189	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
46.453	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
46.132	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
45.847	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
44.738	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
44.650	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
43.750	Russian Coup or Regime Change before 2024? (No) → Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2024?	Binary
43.329	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
42.771	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
41.474	Will Xi Jinping speak with Volodymyr Zelensky before April 1, 2023?	Binary
40.096	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
39.789	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
39.690	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
38.470	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
37.885	Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?	Binary
36.860	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
35.730	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
34.278	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
30.360	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
29.223	Will Sarah Bernstein or Chetna Maroo win the 2023 Booker Prize?	Binary
28.827	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
27.146	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
26.599	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
25.517	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
25.169	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
24.949	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
24.468	Will voting in Twitter polls require verification on April 16, 2023?	Binary
24.269	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
24.070	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
23.189	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
22.202	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
22.132	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
21.824	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
20.020	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
19.955	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.732	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu)	Binary
19.242	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
19.234	Who will win the 2023 Presidential Election in Türkiye (Turkey)? (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan)	Binary
19.075	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
18.650	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
17.690	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
16.926	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
15.056	Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?	Binary
13.184	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
12.649	2023 World Chess Championship tiebreaks? (Yes) → Ding Liren 2023 World Chess Champion?	Binary
12.276	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
12.192	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
12.032	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
11.960	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
11.958	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
11.874	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
11.583	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
11.325	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
11.265	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
10.774	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.141	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
7.602	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin be confirmed to be dead before November 2023?	Binary
7.469	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
7.401	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.396	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
6.728	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
6.458	Will the 2023 World Chess Championship go to tiebreaks?	Binary
5.474	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
4.974	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
4.713	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
4.414	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
3.639	When will The One Ring be found?	Continuous
3.162	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
3.053	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
2.961	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
2.957	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
2.954	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
2.952	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
2.864	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
2.862	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
2.862	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
2.861	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
2.861	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
2.860	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
1.706	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
1.117	Will Ding Liren win the 2023 World Chess Championship?	Binary
0.612	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
-1.569	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
-1.664	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-2.947	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
-3.980	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
-5.683	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-7.376	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-10.261	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-12.458	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
-12.687	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
-13.550	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
-13.773	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-15.820	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
-21.507	Will the US Supreme Court declare the Indian Child Welfare Act unconstitutional?	Binary
-23.945	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-26.324	Will top institutions participating in the UK’s global AI Safety Summit make concrete and meaningful commitments to advance AI safety?	Binary
-33.476	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
-35.931	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-43.396	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-52.521	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-73.215	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-85.954	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
-91.505	Will the author who wins the 2023 Pulitzer Prize for Fiction be a first-time finalist?	Binary
-91.700	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous
-93.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-249.425	Will the MONUSCO UN peacekeeping mission to the Democratic Republic of the Congo be extended with a military personnel ceiling above 11,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary

MetaculusM

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

PeterWildeford

User

PeterWildeford