PeterWildeford

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.383k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
122.281	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
108.547	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
93.205	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
92.818	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
90.489	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
89.696	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
86.688	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
85.880	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
84.222	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
84.089	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
83.538	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
83.343	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
83.137	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
80.343	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
79.279	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
76.033	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
73.838	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
72.867	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
72.159	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
71.035	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
69.096	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
66.428	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
66.305	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?	Binary
66.144	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
66.014	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
65.296	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
64.939	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
64.286	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
62.800	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
62.530	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
60.381	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
59.096	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
58.410	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
58.085	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
57.660	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
57.529	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
57.229	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
55.998	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
55.509	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
54.975	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
54.645	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
54.271	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
54.169	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
53.812	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
53.045	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
52.966	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
52.602	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
52.560	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
51.768	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
50.664	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
50.521	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
50.405	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
50.371	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
49.485	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
49.330	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
48.869	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
48.077	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
47.739	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
47.510	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
47.299	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
46.733	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
46.543	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
46.258	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
45.701	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
44.776	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
43.568	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
42.054	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
40.628	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
39.597	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
37.194	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
36.811	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
36.490	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
36.270	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
35.510	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
35.507	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
35.425	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
35.015	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
34.918	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
33.793	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
33.707	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
33.531	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
32.737	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
31.928	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
31.735	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
31.110	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
31.100	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
30.620	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
30.359	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
29.734	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
29.323	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
28.382	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
27.338	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
25.854	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
25.437	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
25.005	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
24.792	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
24.671	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
23.517	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
22.714	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
22.580	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
22.089	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
21.478	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
20.871	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
20.666	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
18.884	How many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?	Continuous
18.827	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
18.001	How much will the US federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?	Continuous
17.284	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
17.075	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
17.032	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
16.810	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
16.266	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
15.544	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
14.283	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
14.090	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
13.568	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
13.255	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
13.183	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
13.130	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
13.054	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
10.987	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
10.743	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
10.516	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
9.199	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
9.186	What will be the COVID-19: Government Response Stringency Index for the US be on February 1st 2021?	Continuous
9.137	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
8.850	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
8.780	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
7.081	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
5.986	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
3.610	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
3.523	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
3.233	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
2.693	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
2.511	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
2.442	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
0.766	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
0.548	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
0.122	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-1.482	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
-1.532	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-1.671	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-2.924	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-3.530	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-3.807	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-3.925	How many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?	Continuous
-7.083	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
-7.938	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
-8.889	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
-9.676	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-10.897	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-11.079	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
-14.538	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-15.105	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-16.189	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
-17.198	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-19.584	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
-21.201	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
-22.117	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-22.326	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
-25.647	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-25.772	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
-28.595	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-31.909	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-36.246	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-38.031	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-43.321	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-46.391	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-48.299	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-67.036	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
-67.524	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-69.890	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-70.998	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-71.449	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-81.491	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-83.600	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-89.010	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-95.989	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-130.166	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous