PeterWildeford

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2022 - 2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

We sometimes recruit upstanding members of the community who are excellent question writers to become paid moderators.

Fill out our expression of interest form if you would like to be considered.

6.684k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
103.522	How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	Continuous
98.495	Will Russia be removed from the UN Security Council by 2024?	Binary
98.121	Will Russia invade Latvia, Lithuania, or Estonia before 2024?	Binary
98.107	Will North Korea send 100 or more troops to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
98.024	Will Medvedchuk become president of Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
95.524	Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2024?	Binary
94.889	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jared Kushner)	Binary
94.888	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (John Legere)	Binary
94.888	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sheryl Sandberg)	Binary
94.888	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Blake Masters)	Binary
94.888	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Peter Thiel)	Binary
94.884	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Mike Schroepfer)	Binary
94.040	In 2023 will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan?	Binary
93.170	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be used in war (ie not a test or accident) and kill at least 10 people?	Binary
92.823	Will Ukraine join the European Union before 2024?	Binary
92.172	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Gavin Newsom is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
91.588	Will a radiological "dirty bomb" be detonated in Ukraine or Russia before 2024?	Binary
91.417	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Sevastopol?	Binary
90.572	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Sevastopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.836	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Lex Fridman)	Binary
89.818	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Jason Calacanis)	Binary
89.818	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (David Sacks)	Binary
89.816	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Sriram Krishnan)	Binary
89.816	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Steve Davis)	Binary
89.402	What percentage of US GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
89.025	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join the EU before 2024?	Binary
88.961	In 2023 will someone release "DALL-E, but for videos"?	Binary
88.783	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2023?	Binary
88.097	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection before 2024?	Binary
88.083	Will Vladimir Putin be the president of the Russian Federation on February 1, 2023?	Binary
87.842	On January 1, 2024, will Joe Biden have a positive (approval minus disapproval) rating?	Binary
87.603	On January 1, 2024, will Elon Musk remain owner of Twitter?	Binary
87.585	Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
86.942	In 2023 will any other war have more casualties than Russia-Ukraine?	Binary
86.052	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Zaporizhzhia?	Binary
85.959	On January 1, 2024, will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia?	Binary
85.592	Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
85.572	In 2023 will the UK hold a general election?	Binary
85.463	Will Russia be the world's most sanctioned country on February 22, 2023?	Binary
84.997	Will a coup or regime change take place in Russia in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
84.775	Will China reverse its ban on bitcoin mining and trading before 2024?	Binary
83.716	In 2023 will there be any change in the composition of the Supreme Court?	Binary
83.654	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (March 1, 2023)	Binary
83.133	On January 1, 2024, will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK?	Binary
82.900	On January 1, 2024, will an ordinary person be able to take a self-driving taxi from Oakland → SF during rush hour?	Binary
82.898	In 2023 will Ali Khameini cease to be Supreme Leader of Iran?	Binary
82.522	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Joe Biden is the most likely Democratic nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
82.337	On January 1, 2024, will Ukraine control the city of Luhansk?	Binary
82.090	Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?	Binary
81.181	Will Ukraine regain control of at least 50 km^2 of the Crimean Peninsula?	Continuous
81.162	In 2023, will Tether de-peg?	Binary
80.810	Will Ukraine join NATO before 2024?	Binary
79.508	In 2023 will an issue involving a nuclear power plant in Ukraine require evacuation of a populated area?	Binary
79.190	On January 1, 2024, will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war?	Binary
78.409	Will Ukraine officially recognize a former Ukrainian territory as independent before 2024?	Binary
78.279	Will Ukraine have a security guarantee from another country before 2024?	Binary
77.876	How many Internally Displaced Ukrainians will be estimated by the UN in 2022?	Continuous
77.267	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2023)	Binary
76.531	Will China reverse its decision to ban financial institutions from trading and engaging in cryptocurrency transactions before 2024?	Binary
71.151	Will Binance or a subsidiary file for bankruptcy or be sold "under duress" before 2024?	Binary
69.765	Will cost of living riots happen in the UK before March 1, 2023?	Binary
69.645	In 2023 will AI win a programming competition?	Binary
69.241	On January 1, 2024, will the Kerch Bridge be destroyed, such that no vehicle can pass over it?	Binary
69.099	What will be the average annual level of PM2.5 in Beijing, China in 2023?	Continuous
68.735	In 2023 will WHO declare a new Global Health Emergency?	Binary
67.462	Will Ukraine formally pledge not to join NATO before 2024?	Binary
66.026	On January 1, 2024, will any FAANG or Musk company accept crypto as a payment?	Binary
65.255	Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2023?	Binary
64.374	Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2024?	Binary
63.045	Will Russia control any formerly Ukrainian territories other than LNR, DNR, or Crimea on January 1, 2024?	Binary
60.839	Will Texas vote to secede from the United States before 2024?	Binary
59.805	Will Bitcoin go up over 2023?	Binary
58.874	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Ron DeSantis is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
58.249	Will US CPI inflation for 2023 average above 4%?	Binary
55.149	In 2023 will a cultured meat product be available in at least one US store or restaurant for less than $30?	Binary
54.376	Will Donald Trump post a new tweet before March 1, 2023?	Binary
52.733	Will Twitter's net income be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
51.820	Will Kim Jong-un remain the de facto leader of North Korea until (at least) January 1, 2024?	Binary
50.935	Will the UN open an investigation or otherwise intervene on the issue of the Xinjiang internment camps before 2024?	Binary
48.580	Will Ukraine have de facto control of at least 90% of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts on January 1, 2024?	Binary
47.193	Will Russia capture or surround a large Ukrainian city before June 1, 2023?	Binary
46.931	What share of global payments in 2023 will be in Chinese renminbi?	Continuous
45.629	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2023?	Binary
45.334	Will personal ID authentication be obligatory for new Twitter accounts on July 1, 2023?	Binary
44.958	Who will be the most recent CEO of Twitter on February 1, 2023? (Elon Musk)	Binary
44.940	When will US or NATO forces conduct military operations in Ukraine or Ukraine's occupied regions?	Continuous
43.584	Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
43.047	Will Finland join NATO before 2024?	Binary
42.383	Will Georgia impose sanctions against Russia before 2024?	Binary
41.919	Will any US state re-implement a general indoor mask mandate before February 1st 2023?	Binary
41.194	Will a member of the Chinese Politburo be expelled or arrested in 2022 or 2023?	Binary
39.409	In 2023 will a nuclear weapon be detonated (including tests and accidents)?	Binary
35.920	Will the Kakhovka dam be breached before May 2023?	Binary
35.470	Will Shanghai continue to subsidize up to 30% of investment in semiconductor materials and equipment projects within the city until 2024?	Binary
35.298	In 2023 will a new version of COVID be substantially able to escape Omicron vaccines?	Binary
34.666	In 2023 will the Supreme Court rule against affirmative action?	Binary
34.401	On January 1, 2024, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?	Binary
34.222	What price will Coinbase quote for FTX's FTT token on February 1, 2023?	Continuous
33.647	Will there be more than 4 deaths between Russia and NATO forces outside of Ukraine before July 1, 2023?	Binary
32.807	In 2023 will Google, Meta, Amazon, or Apple release an AR headset?	Binary
32.705	What proportion of NATO member states, excluding the USA, will increase their real 2023 defense spending by at least 25 % compared to 2022?	Continuous
31.557	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
31.262	Will the TSA extend or reimpose a mask mandate on public transportation before 2024?	Binary
28.961	In 2023, will the S&P 500 index reach a new all-time high?	Binary
28.822	Will Israel impose sanctions on Russia before 2024?	Binary
26.811	Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2024?	Binary
25.408	Will COVID kill at least 50% as many people in 2023 as it did in 2022?	Binary
22.224	In 2023 will there be more than 25 million confirmed COVID cases in China?	Binary
19.173	How many FLOPS will be used to train GPT-4 (if it is released)?	Continuous
18.646	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to COVID vaccination?	Binary
18.293	By 2024, will Vladimir Putin be charged with war crimes by the International Criminal Court in connection to the Russian invasion of Ukraine?	Binary
17.839	In 2023 will any new country join NATO?	Binary
17.463	By December 31, 2023, will the courts block any part of the Biden Administration's plan to broadly cancel student debt?	Binary
15.706	Will pediatric cases of hepatitis with unknown origin be conclusively linked to adenovirus infection?	Binary
14.686	Will a major nuclear power plant in Germany be operational on June 1, 2023?	Binary
14.567	In 2023 will OpenAI release GPT-4?	Binary
13.478	Will a mainstream voice assistant use freeform dialog based on a large language model before end of 2023?	Binary
13.335	Will Joe Rogan leave Spotify before February 1, 2023?	Binary
12.382	Will Holden win his Bet with Zvi about Omicron, conditional on one of them winning?	Binary
12.378	How many Ukrainian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (25,000)	Binary
11.455	When will Ukraine regain control of the city of Kherson?	Continuous
10.213	Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs before January 1, 2024?	Binary
8.859	Will Andrej Babiš win the next Czech Republic presidental election?	Binary
8.324	If Russia invades Ukraine, will +1,000 Russian soldiers be killed by Ukrainian forces in 2022 and 2023?	Binary
7.842	Will the city of Redondo Beach, CA pass a ballot initiative to adopt STAR voting in March 2023?	Binary
7.321	When will GPT-4 be announced?	Continuous
7.281	Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?	Binary
6.861	In 2023 will Donald Trump get indicted on criminal charges?	Binary
6.434	What percentage of Russian GDP will be spent on military expenses in 2022?	Continuous
5.802	In 2023 will a successful deepfake attempt causing real damage make the front page of a major news source?	Binary
4.422	Does Omicron have a shorter generation interval than Delta?	Binary
3.684	Will there be 36 or more private fusion-energy companies in 2022?	Binary
3.333	Will Twitter make verification generally available before July 2023?	Binary
3.025	Will Sam Bankman-Fried return to US soil before February 1, 2023?	Binary
2.990	Will the US “Rewards for Justice” program pay the $10M reward offered for information on the interference in the 2020 presidential election?	Binary
2.851	Will the US Supplemental Poverty Measure be higher in 2022 than 2021?	Binary
2.808	Will there be a publicly reported cyberattack against the global navigation satellite systems between April 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023?	Binary
2.370	Will it become public that the FBI sought a warrant to launch an operation to disrupt web shells on private computers in 2022?	Binary
1.616	Will at least 5 million refugees from Ukraine seek assistance from other countries?	Binary
1.570	Will a new Office of Pandemic Preparedness and Response Policy be created if the PREVENT Pandemics Act is made law?	Binary
1.351	Will PredictIt be open for trading in the US on March 16, 2023?	Binary
0.914	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2023)	Continuous
0.437	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
0.437	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Theresa May)	Binary
0.437	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
0.435	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
0.435	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
0.426	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Penny Mourdant)	Binary
0.152	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
0.102	Who will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
-2.940	In 2023 will Donald Trump make at least one tweet?	Binary
-4.696	Will Twitter's average monetizable daily users be higher in 2023 than in 2022?	Binary
-5.335	Will Ukraine use American rocket systems against targets on Russian soil before July 2023?	Binary
-7.510	Will the US PREVENT Pandemics Act be made into law before February 2023?	Binary
-10.030	Will the Supreme Court overturn California's Proposition 12 in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross before 2024?	Binary
-21.530	Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2023?	Binary
-24.000	Will a grant recipient of the FTX Foundation have their grant funds frozen, seized, or demanded back? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
-26.981	Will Saudi Arabia and Iran restore diplomatic relations by 2024?	Binary
-28.256	Will the Shanghai index of Chinese stocks go up over 2023?	Binary
-29.277	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard by June 30, 2023?	Binary
-31.305	How many Russian soldiers will be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2024? (50,000)	Binary
-31.553	Will Johnny Depp receive a film contract from a major film studio by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-37.775	Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?	Binary
-44.758	Will there be a collision or ramming incident between a military vessel or military aircraft of Russia or Belarus, and one of a NATO country, before 2024?	Binary
-47.410	Will Bitcoin end 2023 above $30,000?	Binary
-48.609	In 2023, will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit?	Binary
-61.901	What will state-of-the-art top-1 accuracy on the APPS Benchmark introductory problems be from 2022 to 2025? (2023)	Continuous
-87.845	In 2023, will an image model win Scott Alexander’s bet on compositionality, to Edwin Chen’s satisfaction?	Binary
-91.336	How much foreign aid will the US provide Ukraine in 2022?	Continuous
-123.001	Will Brendan Fraser win an Oscar in 2023?	Binary
-170.844	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2022, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-196.883	Will Sweden join NATO before 2024?	Binary