PeterWildeford

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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19.69k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
148.698	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
138.726	How many Annex 2 states will ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty by 2024?	Continuous
136.476	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
125.378	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
122.518	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
115.848	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
100.833	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
99.287	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott)	Binary
99.069	Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025?	Binary
98.639	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
98.623	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
98.395	Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?	Binary
98.159	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson)	Binary
98.159	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban)	Binary
98.147	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
98.047	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Government antitrust against Microsoft)	Binary
98.047	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (Sam Altman against OpenAI)	Binary
98.038	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1)	Binary
98.031	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Sam Altman)	Binary
97.975	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI against Microsoft)	Binary
97.853	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
97.832	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
97.386	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
97.357	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
97.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D))	Binary
97.349	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D))	Binary
97.287	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
96.927	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
96.643	Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
96.627	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
96.619	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D))	Binary
96.619	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D))	Binary
96.517	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
96.461	Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?	Binary
96.162	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
96.159	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney)	Binary
95.897	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
95.813	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D))	Binary
95.267	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D))	Binary
95.165	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
95.126	Will Yevgeny V. Prigozhin make a public appearance before 23 February 2024?	Binary
95.087	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump)	Binary
95.087	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin)	Binary
95.087	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
95.086	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
95.010	Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024?	Binary
94.821	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie)	Binary
94.772	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
94.723	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
94.699	Will the US and Iran be primary actors on opposite sides of a war before 2025?	Binary
94.685	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson)	Binary
94.572	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd)	Binary
94.487	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump)	Binary
94.487	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence)	Binary
94.399	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
94.350	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst)	Binary
94.350	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
94.350	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace)	Binary
94.085	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
94.035	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.)	Binary
93.946	Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?	Binary
93.858	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds)	Binary
93.824	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard)	Binary
93.765	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
93.738	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
93.677	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds)	Binary
93.591	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio)	Binary
93.514	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
93.490	Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
93.287	Will a major attack on voting systems in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI before 2025?	Binary
93.143	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D))	Binary
92.968	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez)	Binary
92.701	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
92.695	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant)	Binary
92.548	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders)	Binary
92.491	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.424	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott)	Binary
92.360	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
92.220	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
92.206	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
92.192	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
92.116	Will a cultivated meat company be profitable by April 2023?	Binary
91.769	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson)	Binary
91.698	Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024?	Binary
91.669	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips)	Binary
91.625	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
91.503	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
91.364	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake)	Binary
91.282	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
91.137	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas)	Binary
91.062	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
90.456	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
90.345	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
90.255	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D))	Binary
89.824	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire)	Binary
89.692	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
89.303	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
89.299	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
89.226	Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025?	Binary
89.201	Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin)	Binary
88.697	Will Tether collapse before 2025?	Binary
88.528	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska)	Binary
88.383	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
88.295	Will a stock exchange halt trading for >24 hours with a cause widely attributed to AI before 2025?	Binary
88.194	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
87.957	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024)	Binary
87.956	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa)	Binary
87.915	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate)	Binary
87.868	Will lawsuits related to the firing of Sam Altman by OpenAI be filed with the following plaintiffs and defendants before March 1, 2024? (OpenAI investors against OpenAI board)	Binary
87.624	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
87.328	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
86.780	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson)	Binary
86.324	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
86.203	By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?	Binary
85.760	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
85.743	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D))	Binary
85.674	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida)	Binary
85.585	Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025?	Binary
85.417	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
85.250	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
83.554	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
83.541	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
83.398	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
82.932	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy)	Binary
82.842	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
82.819	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
82.713	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
82.508	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott)	Binary
82.272	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota)	Binary
82.169	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem)	Binary
81.733	Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election?	Binary
81.310	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
81.227	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
81.116	If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?	Binary
81.016	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
80.823	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder)	Binary
80.805	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
79.992	Will a theft of >$10M of intellectual property be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?	Binary
79.612	Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025)	Binary
79.229	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
78.938	Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
78.410	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang)	Binary
78.405	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
78.367	Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?	Binary
78.117	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
77.933	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
77.890	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
77.585	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
77.373	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
77.318	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney)	Binary
77.277	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie)	Binary
77.264	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
77.102	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
77.058	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2)	Binary
77.039	Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025)	Binary
76.471	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
76.228	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
74.736	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
74.475	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
73.754	Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025?	Binary
73.701	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
72.391	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
72.189	Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?	Binary
71.861	When will a SARS-CoV-2 variant overtake Omicron as the dominant variant globally?	Continuous
71.787	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico)	Binary
71.660	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
71.353	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
71.175	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
71.158	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
71.013	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses autonomously self-replicating LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
70.536	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia)	Binary
70.411	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate)	Binary
69.879	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
69.862	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein)	Binary
69.862	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West)	Binary
69.862	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver)	Binary
69.495	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
69.327	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
69.034	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
68.738	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado)	Binary
68.586	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
68.581	Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025?	Binary
68.452	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
68.259	Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
66.475	Will any nation have less than 10% of their population vaccinated with at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022?	Binary
65.499	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
65.275	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
65.204	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
65.123	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?	Binary
64.653	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
64.649	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide))	Binary
63.914	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
63.862	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
63.772	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur)	Binary
62.904	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
62.902	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
62.850	Will China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2025)	Binary
62.692	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
62.252	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin)	Binary
62.238	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
62.027	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
61.808	Will Nigeria have a coup before 2025?	Binary
59.876	Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)?	Binary
59.597	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
59.135	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
58.767	Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
58.140	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
57.551	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
57.144	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
56.980	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
56.871	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
56.841	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
55.520	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
55.453	Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025?	Binary
54.015	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
53.493	Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?	Binary
52.513	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
52.439	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
51.332	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams)	Binary
51.332	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)	Binary
51.332	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren)	Binary
51.332	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
51.314	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders)	Binary
51.309	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker)	Binary
51.309	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
51.131	When will be the USA’s peak 7-day moving average of COVID hospital admissions for the winter of 2021-2022?	Continuous
50.710	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
50.655	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
50.000	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
49.777	Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025?	Binary
49.768	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
49.763	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina)	Binary
49.573	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.)	Binary
49.493	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
49.323	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz)	Binary
48.773	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt)	Binary
48.756	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
48.027	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson)	Binary
47.850	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
47.724	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
46.201	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
45.848	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik)	Binary
45.671	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
45.664	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio)	Binary
45.622	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
45.592	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate)	Binary
45.037	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
44.276	Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D))	Binary
43.413	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
42.625	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum)	Binary
42.036	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
42.020	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
41.059	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
39.323	Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?	Binary
39.170	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
39.117	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
38.767	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
38.460	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
37.903	Will additional COVID-19 booster doses be authorized by FDA for the U.S. adult population before 2023?	Binary
37.787	Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?	Binary
37.541	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
37.449	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey)	Binary
37.416	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
37.304	Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024?	Binary
36.318	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
34.564	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
33.972	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
32.324	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
32.271	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
31.974	Will an LLM pass an ARA evaluation before 2025?	Binary
31.133	By what percentage will the total US yearly retail sales of plant-based meat in 2022 grow compared to 2020?	Continuous
30.642	If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025?	Binary
30.552	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Russia)	Binary
30.304	Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models?	Binary
30.029	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
29.551	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
29.380	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried)	Binary
28.886	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
28.022	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
27.998	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
27.970	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
27.640	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
26.234	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
25.628	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer)	Binary
25.615	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
25.212	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
24.575	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
22.515	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
22.351	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
22.095	Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the 2024 presidential election in Taiwan?	Binary
21.975	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
21.618	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
21.522	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
21.462	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
20.474	Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024?	Binary
20.451	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
20.202	[Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court?	Binary
19.774	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024)	Binary
18.876	Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?	Binary
18.600	Will Belfast (2021) win the 2022 Best Picture Oscar?	Binary
18.529	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia)	Binary
18.328	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
17.884	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
17.636	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
17.415	When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers?	Continuous
17.396	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
17.151	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York)	Binary
17.128	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD))	Binary
17.115	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD))	Binary
16.910	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
16.742	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
16.198	Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022?	Binary
16.144	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz)	Binary
15.896	Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3)	Binary
15.775	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
14.785	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
12.500	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
12.276	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
11.724	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
11.683	Will at least 10 countries ratify a new international treaty on pandemic prevention and preparedness before 2025?	Binary
11.509	What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates? (June 30, 2024)	Continuous
11.105	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
10.890	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD))	Binary
10.585	Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match?	Binary
10.386	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
9.210	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
9.078	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
8.395	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt)	Binary
8.395	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella)	Binary
8.362	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
8.359	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy)	Binary
8.312	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever)	Binary
7.949	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
7.501	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati)	Binary
7.045	Will a large language model (LLM) that is at least as capable as original GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?	Binary
6.632	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
6.497	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
6.415	When will OpenAI release an AI that significantly improves on GPT-4's factual accuracy?	Continuous
6.127	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
6.036	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
5.836	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
5.794	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
5.707	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear)	Binary
5.580	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House)	Binary
5.056	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh)	Binary
4.887	Will India sign the Artemis Accords before 2025?	Binary
4.866	Will the price of Beyond or Impossible plant-based ground beef go lower than conventional ground beef before April 22, 2023?	Binary
4.807	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
4.557	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
3.995	Will there be a Frontier AI Lab outside the US before 2026?	Binary
3.719	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
3.498	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
3.270	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
3.122	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
2.384	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House)	Binary
2.370	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
2.287	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Brazil)	Binary
1.978	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Vietnam)	Binary
1.802	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (China)	Binary
1.772	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (European Union)	Binary
1.513	Which of these countries will ban a major crop for export before April 2023? (Thailand)	Binary
1.236	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison)	Binary
1.236	Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99?	Binary
1.043	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
0.977	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
0.912	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House)	Binary
0.742	Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman)	Binary
0.678	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
0.673	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
0.670	Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang)	Binary
0.611	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (China)	Binary
0.593	Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?	Binary
0.345	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
0.344	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform)	Continuous
0.312	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
0.258	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
0.218	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
0.115	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.090	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
0.023	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-0.062	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (United States)	Binary
-0.124	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D))	Binary
-0.124	If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
-0.170	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-0.214	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-0.263	Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025?	Binary
-1.194	Will these countries approve a cultivated meat product for consumption before April 2023? (Israel)	Binary
-2.419	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-2.814	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-2.904	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-4.029	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin)	Binary
-5.425	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
-6.522	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-6.686	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona)	Binary
-7.107	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-8.247	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
-15.165	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-15.912	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-17.428	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-19.191	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026?	Binary
-20.105	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-20.316	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
-20.943	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-27.721	Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?	Binary
-28.729	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-28.942	Will at least 3 months of third party safety evaluations be conducted on Gemini before its deployment?	Binary
-30.840	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-38.626	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-46.866	Will there be a Frontier AI lab in China before 2026?	Binary
-48.604	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania)	Binary
-51.062	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada)	Binary
-52.094	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-53.058	Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance)	Binary
-53.630	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary
-54.669	What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate)	Binary
-59.051	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-66.701	Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-75.005	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-76.372	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-79.642	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-80.564	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-84.162	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-89.564	Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan)	Binary
-95.447	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-116.267	What will China’s GDP be in 2023?	Continuous
-138.080	Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022?	Binary
-168.849	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-176.245	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
-270.024	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary