Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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9.643k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
139.777	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
126.560	What will the GDP of the UK be (in billions GBP), given Liz Truss wins the Conservative Party leadership contest? (2022)	Continuous
121.493	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in New York as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
119.419	What will be the total number of reported monkeypox cases in California as of December 31, 2022?	Continuous
110.168	What will be the worldwide number of confirmed monkeypox (mpox) infections per year? (2022)	Continuous
109.842	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
100.309	How many subscribers will the Effective Altruism subreddit have on January 1, 2023?	Continuous
98.374	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
98.144	Will a US nuclear weapon be detonated in Russia before 2023?	Binary
98.127	Will a Russian nuclear weapon be detonated in the US before 2023?	Binary
97.495	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
96.709	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
96.694	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
96.493	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
96.332	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
96.205	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Nadhim Zahawi)	Binary
96.078	Will at least one nuclear weapon be detonated in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
95.309	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Suella Braverman)	Binary
95.286	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Steve Baker)	Binary
95.057	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Dominic Raab)	Binary
95.028	What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for reinstating Trump?	Continuous
94.852	Will Elizabeth Kim win the Democratic primary for New York's 10th congressional district in 2022?	Binary
94.654	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
93.705	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
93.540	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
92.381	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
92.367	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
92.321	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
92.054	What will be the maximum price reached for Ethereum by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
91.181	Will Dnipro be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
90.242	[Short fuse]: Will Russia assume responsibility and apologize for the Przewodów strike before December?	Binary
90.120	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
89.561	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Scott Aitchison)	Binary
89.561	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Roman Baber)	Binary
89.561	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Leslyn Lewis)	Binary
89.348	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Kemi Badenoch)	Binary
88.877	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
88.767	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Sajid Javid)	Binary
88.767	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Grant Shapps)	Binary
87.078	By December 31, 2022, will at least 10,000 US troops move into Ukraine?	Binary
86.686	Will Leondra Kruger be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
86.372	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Pierre Poilievre)	Binary
86.372	Who will win the 2022 Conservative Party of Canada leadership election? (Jean Charest)	Binary
85.959	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
85.662	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
85.392	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
85.001	Will Governor Newsom be Reelected Governor of California in 2022?	Binary
84.896	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
84.449	Will Russia withdraw from the New START arms control treaty before January 1, 2023?	Binary
84.344	[Short Fuse] How much money will be awarded to Johnny Depp in his defamation suit against his ex-wife Amber Heard?	Continuous
82.912	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
82.706	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
82.212	Will Twitter's board accept an acquisition offer from someone other than Elon Musk before 2023?	Binary
81.875	Will Beto O'Rourke win the 2022 Texas gubernatorial election?	Binary
81.167	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
80.891	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
78.342	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Mariupol on January 1, 2023?	Binary
78.328	What percentage of monkeypox cases in California will be among cisgender men who are gay/same-gender loving or bisexual?	Continuous
77.899	Will Peloton file for bankruptcy protection before 2023?	Binary
77.897	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
77.894	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
76.941	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
76.420	Will Ron DeSantis be re-elected as Governor of Florida in 2022?	Binary
76.394	Will Éric Zemmour win the French presidential election in 2022?	Binary
74.795	Will Boris Johnson be charged with any criminal offence before 2023?	Binary
74.781	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
72.973	What will the US effective fed funds rate be in the following years? (2022)	Continuous
72.406	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
72.137	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
71.389	Will Coinbase file for bankruptcy protection in 2022?	Binary
70.943	Will the British pound trade below $1 before 2023?	Binary
70.555	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
70.133	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
70.055	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
68.702	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
68.185	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
68.054	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
67.765	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in the United States as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
66.947	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
66.586	Will Carrick Flynn win the general election for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
66.558	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
66.063	What will be the US unemployment rate in October 2022?	Continuous
65.960	What will be the market capitalization of Netflix on December 1, 2022?	Continuous
62.706	Before 2023, will the US CDC recommend the general use of the monkeypox vaccine for all men who have sex with men in the US?	Binary
62.285	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
61.968	How many countries will confirm at least one case of monkeypox by July 31, 2022?	Continuous
61.683	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
59.642	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
59.465	Will J.D. Vance win the 2022 United States Senate election in Ohio?	Binary
59.253	How many refugees will leave Ukraine by July 1, 2022?	Continuous
57.625	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
57.332	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
56.651	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
55.316	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
55.113	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
54.663	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
53.497	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
52.960	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in the United States as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
52.517	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
52.311	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
52.307	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Alex Jones)	Binary
52.102	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
51.785	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary
50.776	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
50.100	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Canada as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
49.736	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
48.420	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.187	When will China end Covid Zero?	Continuous
47.898	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
47.378	Will Niger experience a coup before 2023?	Binary
47.346	Will James Charles have more than 25 million Youtube subscribers by January 1, 2023?	Binary
46.639	Before 2023, will Joe Biden announce that he will not run for president in 2024?	Binary
46.021	What will be the price of 1 ETH on the following dates? (December 31, 2022)	Continuous
45.323	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
44.901	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
41.414	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
39.788	Will Doug Mastriano be elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022?	Binary
39.041	What percent of voters will vote in favor of the Swiss 2022 Bio Suisse Animal Welfare referendum question?	Continuous
38.561	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 29, 2022)	Continuous
38.172	Will Ontario's Conservative Party (PC) win the a majority in the election on 2022-06-02?	Binary
38.015	How many seats will Democrats win in the US House of Representatives in 2022?	Continuous
37.386	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
36.853	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
35.065	Will a Republican be elected governor of Maryland in 2022?	Binary
33.384	What percent of voters will vote in favor of Sioux Falls' 2022 Slaughterhouse ballot question?	Continuous
33.322	Will Queen Elizabeth II abdicate in 2022?	Binary
32.106	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
31.702	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (May 1, 2022)	Continuous
31.206	How far ahead or behind of Labour will the UK's Conservative Party be in the polls on October 6, 2022?	Continuous
28.582	What will be the approval rating of Vladimir Putin in December 2022?	Continuous
28.478	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in New York as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
27.896	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
27.380	How many states in the United States will report having a case of monkeypox as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
27.155	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
27.113	Before 2022-04-01, will martial law be on in any five federal subjects of Russia excluding all the territories annexed after 2013?	Binary
26.915	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
26.626	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
26.268	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
26.185	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
25.631	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Milo Yiannopoulos)	Binary
24.787	How many smallsat launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
24.283	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
23.979	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
22.812	Will the New York Times place Wordle (or any currently existing part of Wordle) behind a paywall during 2022?	Binary
21.915	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
21.626	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Jared Taylor)	Binary
20.890	Will David Segal win the RI-2 Democratic primary?	Binary
20.629	Will Rick Caruso be elected Mayor of Los Angeles in 2022?	Binary
20.444	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
19.999	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
19.515	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Tila Tequila)	Binary
19.162	[Short Fuse] What percentage "yes" will Elon Musk's Twitter poll have for stepping down as head of Twitter?	Continuous
18.796	What will be the total number of monkeypox cases in California as of August 31, 2022?	Continuous
18.096	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
16.910	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
15.155	Will Ron Johnson win the 2022 Wisconsin US Senate election?	Binary
14.848	Will China abandon their zero-covid strategy before June 1, 2022?	Binary
14.613	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
13.111	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
12.369	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
11.014	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
10.951	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
10.728	What will be Putin's approval rating value 3 months after the potential invasion of Ukraine?	Continuous
9.412	If Russia invades Ukraine in 2022, when will the invasion be acknowledged by Russia or the UN?	Continuous
7.028	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
6.435	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jun 26, 2022)	Continuous
6.361	[Short Fuse] Will Raphael Warnock defeat Herschel Walker in the Georgia Senate runoff on Tuesday?	Binary
5.407	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
5.005	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
4.451	Will the ceasefire in Yemen hold for its intended duration?	Binary
4.281	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
3.998	Before 2023, will FTX.US default or suspend payment to at least one FTX.US user?	Binary
3.228	Will Nancy Pelosi visit Taiwan in 2022?	Binary
2.871	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (September 1, 2022)	Continuous
1.912	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
1.746	Will the US sanction Russian oil or gas before 2023?	Binary
1.473	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
1.368	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy's image appear on the cover of Time's 2022 Person of the Year issue, more prominently than any other person's image?	Binary
0.961	By December 31, 2022, will Twitter agree to be taken private by Elon Musk?	Binary
0.781	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
0.055	By December 31, 2022, will the US federal government announce an extension of the pause on federal student loan repayments?	Binary
-4.869	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (November 1, 2022)	Continuous
-8.979	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Steven Kenneth Bonnell II (Destiny))	Binary
-9.208	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-10.389	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-15.389	Will Mehmet Oz win the 2022 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania?	Binary
-18.862	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
-22.607	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
-29.052	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-32.194	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-40.190	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Marjorie Taylor Greene)	Binary
-40.488	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-48.207	Will Catherine Cortez Masto be re-elected in the 2022 US Senate election in Nevada?	Binary
-54.225	Will Sarah Palin be elected as US Representative for Alaska in 2022?	Binary
-63.297	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Laura Loomer)	Binary
-72.134	What will total NATO defense spending be in 2022?	Continuous
-77.926	What percent of the EU's gas storage capacity will be full on the following dates? (January 1, 2023)	Continuous