Jgalt

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2023

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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11.31k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
171.649	How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?	Continuous
161.056	How much additional aid for Ukraine will the US Congress approve before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
149.483	How many countries will have approved the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine on June 30, 2023?	Continuous
125.256	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Rescued or escaped)	Continuous
117.923	When will the next volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula in Iceland begin?	Continuous
106.117	When will the second Starship test flight occur?	Continuous
101.100	When will Tunisia restore overnight public access to water?	Continuous
99.547	Will Western institutions determine Israel was responsible for the attack on the Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City before 2024?	Binary
98.530	Will a US warship enter the Black Sea before September 25, 2023?	Binary
98.126	Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?	Binary
97.889	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before 2024?	Binary
96.446	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 100)	Binary
96.405	Will there be a military conflict between Serbia and Kosovo before January 1, 2024?	Binary
96.396	Will the Black Sea grain deal be revived before October 1, 2023?	Binary
96.020	Will the U2 concert at The Sphere on September 29, 2023 take place?	Binary
95.915	Will the United States default on its sovereign debt before July 1, 2023?	Binary
95.668	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 300)	Binary
95.578	Will the Wagner Group control a part of Moscow by July 1, 2023?	Binary
95.559	Will Donald Trump spend at least one hour confined in a jail cell before January 1, 2024?	Binary
94.859	Will the US pass the Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena (UAP) Disclosure Act of 2023 before October 1, 2023?	Binary
94.104	Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
93.861	Will OpenAI have fewer than the following numbers of employees before January 1, 2024? (≤ 600)	Binary
93.426	Will Ukraine control Armiansk before July 1, 2023?	Binary
92.728	Will civil war break out in Israel before 2024?	Binary
92.404	Will there be a US financial crisis before July 1, 2023?	Binary
91.652	Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
90.506	Will Russia invade Kazakhstan before 2024?	Binary
90.373	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before October 1, 2023?	Binary
89.847	Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?	Binary
89.811	Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?	Binary
89.777	Will Israel carry out and explicitly acknowledge a deadly attack on Iran before 2024?	Binary
89.537	Will there be large-scale rioting in the US before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
88.313	Will India request that another Canadian diplomat be recalled before 2024?	Binary
87.753	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Oct-2023)	Continuous
87.537	Short Fuse: Will the 'Titan' submersible be recovered intact by noon ET on Thursday, June 22?	Binary
87.018	Will the Federal Funds Rate be raised before December 18, 2023?	Binary
86.946	Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution related to the Nagorno Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia before October 1, 2023?	Binary
86.481	Will a nearly continuous human chain stretch across the length of the Forth and Clyde Canal on 14 October 2023?	Binary
86.251	Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?	Binary
86.207	Will Stepanakert / Khankendi be under de facto Azerbaijani control on September 30, 2023?	Binary
85.871	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jan-2024)	Continuous
85.676	Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?	Binary
85.125	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (Albert Ondo Ossa)	Binary
84.981	Will Mohamed Bazoum, Nigerien President, return to power before August 31, 2023?	Binary
84.912	Before July 1, 2023, will an agentized-LLM system improve itself?	Binary
84.886	Will the US Housing Market crash in 2023?	Binary
84.765	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (President Ali Bongo Ondimba)	Binary
82.954	Who will be the de facto leader of Gabon on September 30, 2023? (General Brice Oligui Nguema)	Binary
82.343	Will Deutsche Bank collapse (or be rescued) before June 2023?	Binary
81.346	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?	Binary
80.661	Will General Sergei Surovikin be stripped of his command by July 11th?	Binary
80.576	Will Abdel Fattah al-Burhan be removed from power in Sudan before June 15, 2023?	Binary
79.632	Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg engage in a cage fight at any point before 2024?	Binary
79.457	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Nov-2023)	Continuous
78.446	Will the extent of Antarctic sea ice for every day in September 2023 be the lowest in recorded history?	Binary
78.357	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sam Altman)	Binary
77.271	Will a majority of voters approve Venezuela's referendum on incorporating Guayana Esequiba into Venezuela?	Binary
77.180	Will the WHO name BA.2.86 as a SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Interest before October 1, 2023?	Binary
76.996	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Mark Zuckerberg)	Binary
76.121	Will Putin attend the G20 summit in India?	Binary
75.729	Will Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat have been confirmed as the 30th prime minister of Thailand before July 1, 2023?	Binary
75.354	US Government Shutdown Before 2024? (No) → Johnson Speaker until 2024?	Binary
74.061	Will the majority of OpenAI's Board of Directors leave the Board before December 1, 2023?	Binary
73.922	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Sundar Pichai)	Binary
73.832	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Demis Hassabis)	Binary
73.828	Will a nationwide UPS strike be underway in the United States on August 4, 2023?	Binary
72.735	Will any of the listed alleged co-conspirators of Donald Trump be indicted for a federal felony before August 11, 2023?	Binary
72.662	Will FDA approval of mifepristone for abortion no longer be in effect for any period of time before July 1, 2023?	Binary
71.152	Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?	Binary
70.693	Will there be a confirmed case of Marburg virus in Algeria by July 28th?	Binary
70.172	Will a non-proprietary LLM be in the top 5 of the chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on September 30, 2023?	Binary
69.578	In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Dec-2023)	Continuous
69.093	Will ECOWAS launch a military intervention in Niger before August 12, 2023?	Binary
69.009	Before October 1, 2023, will US Senator Bob Menendez announce that he is resigning?	Binary
68.671	Will OpenAI limit interactions with GPT-4 on ChatGPT due to model misbehavior before the end of May 2023?	Binary
68.491	Will the UK Labour Party have a polling lead of at least 10% on 1 January 2024?	Binary
68.293	Will New Delhi experience a "Very Unhealthy" or worse air quality index on at least four of the seven days for the week starting October 29?	Binary
66.905	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Myriam Bregman)	Binary
66.448	When will New York City’s period of consecutive rainy weekends end?	Continuous
66.426	What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season on September 30, 2023?	Continuous
66.416	Will Samsung make Bing the default search provider on Galaxy phones before October 1st, 2023?	Binary
66.170	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Juan Schiaretti)	Binary
65.906	At the end of May 2023, will these individuals' signature be in the FLI open letter to pause giant AI experiments? (Dario Amodei)	Binary
65.626	Will Donald Trump participate in the first Republican presidential debate?	Binary
65.305	Will an additional country ban ChatGPT before July 1, 2023?	Binary
64.425	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?	Binary
63.916	Will Russia substantially damage or destroy a Patriot Missile Battery in Ukraine before July, 2023?	Binary
63.856	Will OpenAI report having ≥99% uptime for ChatGPT and the OpenAI API in December 2023?	Binary
62.690	Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?	Binary
61.516	Will the oil transfer from the FSO Safer finish in 19 days?	Binary
60.926	Will OpenAI open-source GPT-3 before 2024?	Binary
60.779	Will Donald Trump participate in the 2nd Republican primary debate?	Binary
58.911	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
58.411	Will F-22 or F-35 fighter jets be pledged to Ukraine by January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.172	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Patricia Bullrich)	Binary
58.126	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
57.353	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
57.275	How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives to replace Kevin McCarthy?	Continuous
56.544	Will the agreement between the Kremlin and the Wagner Group hold through the end of June?	Binary
56.495	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
55.197	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
55.030	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
54.765	Will there be a major conflict involving an external actor in Transnistria before July 1, 2023?	Binary
54.652	Will Apple announce a Mixed Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
53.729	Will the United Auto Workers call a strike against any of the Big Three Detroit automakers before September 19, 2023?	Binary
52.279	ECOWAS Intervention Before August 12, 2023? (No) → Mohamed Bazoum in Power By August 31, 2023?	Binary
52.150	Will Ukraine regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant before January 1, 2024?	Binary
52.090	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
51.298	Before 2024, how many hostages will be freed who were captured in the October 7 Hamas attack? (Released by captor)	Continuous
50.777	Will the House Oversight Committee receive access to requested Joe Biden records related to Hunter Biden’s Ukraine dealings before September 1st?	Binary
50.609	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Ash Regan)	Binary
50.553	Will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner present herself as a candidate for an elective office in the 2023 Argentine national elections?	Binary
50.230	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
49.627	Will Luisa González receive the most votes in the first round of the Ecuadorian election?	Binary
49.626	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Donald Trump (R))	Binary
49.087	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Nancy Mace (R))	Binary
48.831	How many FDIC banks will fail in 2023?	Continuous
48.607	Will Ohio Issue 1 pass in the August 2023 election?	Binary
48.555	Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?	Binary
48.347	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
48.253	What will NVIDIA's market cap be at the end of 2023?	Continuous
47.370	How much money (in US dollars) will GlobalGiving's Morocco Earthquake Relief Fund have raised on September 21, 2023?	Continuous
47.250	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Elise Stefanik (R))	Binary
46.719	Will Microsoft acquire Activision Blizzard in 2023?	Binary
46.283	Will the Israeli High Court issue a ruling on the "reasonableness" law before October 1, 2023?	Binary
46.157	Will Apple announce a Virtual Reality headset at WWDC in 2023?	Binary
46.101	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Don Bacon (R))	Binary
45.834	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Banks (R))	Binary
45.544	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Andy Biggs (R))	Binary
45.302	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Hakeem Jeffries (D))	Binary
45.089	What will be the search engine market share of Bing in December of 2023?	Continuous
44.549	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
44.275	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Byron Donalds (R))	Binary
43.671	Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2023 Dec 31st, ≥ 40%)	Binary
43.660	Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2024?	Binary
43.193	What will be the worldwide 7-day rolling average of confirmed mpox cases for June 30, 2023?	Continuous
42.338	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Fred Upton (R))	Binary
41.614	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Sergio Massa)	Binary
40.693	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
39.944	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
39.628	What will the price of November 2023 Dutch TTF natural gas futures (in Euros per megawatt-hour) be on September 29, 2023?	Continuous
39.371	Will the KBW Bank Index record at least a 33% drop from January 3, 2023 levels before May 1, 2023?	Binary
39.165	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
38.925	Will ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger before October 1, 2023?	Binary
38.144	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Emmer (R))	Binary
37.611	Will the UCP win the most seats in the 2023 Alberta election?	Binary
37.553	Will Sweden's Loreen win the Eurovision Song Contest 2023?	Binary
36.628	What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
36.057	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin Hern (R))	Binary
35.880	How many total seats will the Pheu Thai and Move Forward parties win in the Thailand election?	Continuous
35.400	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Patrick McHenry (R))	Binary
34.866	Will Crook Manifesto by Colson Whitehead be on the August 13th New York Times Bestseller List?	Binary
34.816	Who will win the 2023 Argentine presidential election? (Javier Milei)	Binary
34.766	[Short Fuse] Who will be the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress? (Kevin McCarthy (R))	Binary
34.369	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Israel before 2024?	Binary
34.034	Will Meta launch a Threads web app before October 1, 2023?	Binary
31.400	Will the EU Parliament endorse a negotiating mandate for the AI Act before June 16, 2023?	Binary
30.445	Will Hamas lose control of Gaza before 2024?	Binary
30.331	Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?	Binary
28.932	[Short Fuse] Will the total credit extended through all Fed liquidity facilities exceed $500 billion for any week before May 2023?	Binary
28.768	Will Reddit announce changes or a delay to its proposed API fee pricing before July 1, 2023?	Binary
28.017	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the Tokmak railway station on January 1, 2024?	Binary
27.807	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (September 2)	Continuous
27.197	Will there be an additional Russian IPO on the MICEX in 2023?	Binary
26.813	What will be the closing price of Crude Oil (in USD per barrel) on December 30, 2023?	Continuous
26.598	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Tom Cole (R))	Binary
26.282	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Austin Scott (R))	Binary
26.187	Will Trump lose in the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case?	Binary
24.868	Will Yevgeny Prigozhin be the functional leader of the Wagner Group on June 30, 2023?	Binary
24.821	What will be the average partisan vote swing from 2020 to 2023 in state-level special elections held in the US before October 1, 2023?	Continuous
24.402	What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Dec-23)	Continuous
24.220	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (November 7, 2023)	Binary
24.072	Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?	Binary
23.973	Trump participates in first debate? (No) → Trump Polling Change Two Weeks After Debate?	Continuous
23.960	Will the Ukrainian parliamentary elections be held on schedule on or before 29 October, 2023?	Binary
23.607	Will Italy lose its investment-grade credit rating in May 2023?	Binary
22.943	Will SpaceX receive a launch license for Starship from the FAA before April 15th, 2023?	Binary
21.999	Will the second Starship integrated flight test achieve liftoff before January 1, 2024?	Binary
21.824	Will Israel launch a large-scale ground offensive into Gaza before November 1, 2023?	Binary
21.570	What will be the official death count for the 2023 Hawai'i wildfires as of January 1, 2024?	Continuous
21.424	Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
21.204	What will the median % prevalence of EG.5 in the US for the biweekly periods shown below? (August 19)	Continuous
20.691	Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (January 1, 2024)	Binary
20.328	Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?	Binary
19.391	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Steve Scalise (R))	Binary
18.897	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Brian Fitzpatrick (R))	Binary
18.865	Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?	Binary
18.452	Will internationally recognized media outlets report that a significant Ukrainian military counteroffensive has begun before June 21, 2023?	Binary
17.953	Will Ukraine retake Polohy by the 1st of October, 2023?	Binary
17.164	Will Starship achieve liftoff before Monday, May 1st, 2023?	Binary
15.967	Will Virgin Orbit file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?	Binary
15.705	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Hunter Biden (D))	Binary
15.693	How much will Donald Trump's Republican primary polling average change two weeks after the first debate?	Continuous
15.460	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Adam Schiff (D))	Binary
15.459	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Katie Porter (D))	Binary
14.885	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Jim Jordan (R))	Binary
14.706	Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?	Binary
14.585	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Lee Zeldin (R))	Binary
14.419	What percentage of the possession will the winning team have in the Women's World Cup Final?	Continuous
14.060	Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?	Binary
14.026	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Former Senator Barbara Boxer (D))	Binary
13.681	Will OpenAI release a "product" after ChatGPT before 2024?	Binary
13.589	Will France send their military to intervene in the Gabonese coup in 2023?	Binary
13.505	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Barbara Lee (D))	Binary
13.255	Will Delhi perform cloud seeding before December 1, 2023?	Binary
12.804	Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?	Binary
12.676	Will the 2023 Presidential Elections in Sierra Leone proceed to a runoff?	Binary
12.249	When will the successor to Kevin McCarthy be elected as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives?	Continuous
12.196	Will the "Limit, Save, Grow Act" pass the US House of Representatives before May 2023?	Binary
11.893	Will the Black Sea grain deal be extended before July 19, 2023?	Binary
11.386	Will Ukraine receive a modern main battle tank from a NATO country by 2024?	Binary
11.349	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor Karen Bass (D))	Binary
10.740	Will Stockholm see more than 500 hours of sun in the summer of 2023?	Binary
10.699	Will any additional Republican candidates for president drop out before 2024?	Binary
9.381	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Justice Leondra Kruger (D))	Binary
9.185	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
9.178	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Maxine Waters (D))	Binary
9.159	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Holly Mitchell (D))	Binary
8.317	Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Melitopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.574	Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?	Binary
7.508	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Malia Cohen (D))	Binary
7.458	Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?	Binary
7.044	Will Ed Sheeran be found liable for copyright infringement in 'Let's Get It On' lawsuit?	Binary
6.841	Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.410	Will Representative George Santos be expelled from the US. House of Representatives before January 1, 2024?	Binary
6.033	Will the Conservatives hold on to their seat in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election?	Binary
5.871	Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?	Binary
5.868	Will copper prices reach an all-time-high in 2023?	Binary
5.818	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Lateefah Simon (D))	Binary
5.121	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Sec. of State Shirley Weber (D))	Binary
4.895	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Angela Glover Blackwell (D))	Binary
4.742	Will the Russian Luna-25 mission reach Earth's orbit before September 2, 2023?	Binary
4.635	Will the President of Zimbabwe at the end of 2023 represent the ZANU-PF party?	Binary
4.497	What rating will Bethesda's video game Starfield have on Steam two weeks after release?	Continuous
4.239	Will Israel have a national election for Knesset in 2023?	Binary
4.237	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Rep. Sydney Kamlager-Dove (D))	Binary
4.116	Will Peter Bone MP be suspended from Parliament in 2023 (without first resigning)?	Binary
3.310	Will USDC restore its peg before May 1, 2023?	Binary
2.974	Will First Republic Bank enter FDIC receivership or be sold "under duress" before January 1, 2024?	Binary
2.827	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Mayor London Breed (D))	Binary
2.447	Will the statutory debt limit be increased or suspended for at least 30 days in the United States before 2024?	Binary
2.446	Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on AI-assisted writing for credit before 2024?	Binary
2.303	"Limit, Save, Grow Act" Passes before May? (Yes) → U.S. Debt Default Before July 1, 2023?	Binary
2.167	[Short Fuse] Will Credit Suisse experience any of the following scenarios before May 2023?	Binary
1.519	Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2023?	Binary
1.240	Will OpenAI report having ≥99.9% uptime for ChatGPT in June 2023?	Binary
0.735	When will Joe Biden issue his third veto?	Continuous
0.397	Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?	Binary
0.048	Will Ukraine be confirmed to have used chemical weapons against Russian forces by January 1, 2024?	Binary
-0.878	Will India's Chandrayaan-3 mission successfully land a rover on the moon?	Binary
-1.857	How far from the bow of the Titanic will the submersible 'Titan' be located?	Continuous
-2.602	Will Yahya Sinwar cease to act as Hamas Chief in the Gaza Strip before 2024?	Binary
-3.392	Will an attempted replication of LK-99 superconductivity be published before August 4, 2023?	Binary
-3.710	What percentage of the vote will Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Presidential Elections’ runoff?	Continuous
-6.085	Will a bill be introduced in the Indian Parliament to change the official name of the country to Bharat before September 23, 2023?	Binary
-8.922	Who will the Governor of California appoint to replace Sen. Dianne Feinstein? (Laphonza Butler (D))	Binary
-12.794	Will AI be a Time Person of the Year in 2023?	Binary
-13.931	Will the US Congress approve additional aid for Ukraine before 2024?	Binary
-15.256	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Kate Forbes)	Binary
-15.302	[Short Fuse] Who will be the winner of the leadership race for the next First Minister of the Scottish Parliament? (Humza Yusaf)	Binary
-17.586	When will Browse with Bing be reintroduced on ChatGPT?	Continuous
-21.331	Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?	Binary
-24.168	Will the Dow Jones close at or above 35,000 before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-30.499	[Short Fuse] How many ballots will it take to elect the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives for the 118th Congress?	Continuous
-41.611	Will George Weah win re-election in the 2023 Liberian General Election?	Binary
-43.241	Will Chevron reach an agreement with the Offshore Alliance to end or prevent industrial actions before September 25, 2023?	Binary
-43.583	What percentage of the vote will presidential candidate candidate Javier Milei receive in Argentina's upcoming Open Primaries Elections?	Continuous
-44.302	[Short Fuse] Who will be elected Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives following Kevin McCarthy's removal? (Mike Johnson (R))	Binary
-45.609	Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?	Binary
-45.786	Will Virgin Galactic have a successful commercial flight before July 1, 2023?	Binary
-81.728	Will Google integrate Large Language Model responses directly into Search before August 1, 2023?	Binary
-85.227	Will US sovereign debt be downgraded in 2023?	Binary
-154.553	What will be the effective number of political parties in the Netherlands parliament following the 2023 election?	Continuous

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