Jgalt

User

Duration:2 years

Time Period:2020 - 2021

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.759k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
107.382	For the month of January 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
105.151	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for February 2021?	Continuous
104.947	What will be the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on December 31, 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?	Continuous
104.510	What will the mean level of transit activity be in San Francisco — Bay Area for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
104.440	What will the maximum z-score be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
101.631	What will China's unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?	Continuous
100.397	What will the mean level of transit activity be in Phoenix for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
100.320	What will the US Q1 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
99.246	What will the maximum z-score be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
97.675	Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?	Binary
97.602	For the month of February 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?	Continuous
97.279	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
93.599	What will the mean level of transit activity be in New York City for the week 2021-01-24 through 2021-01-30?	Continuous
93.413	Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?	Binary
86.367	What will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for January 2021?	Continuous
85.549	Will Antifa officially be labeled a terrorist group in the US before 2022?	Binary
84.857	Will Trump freely leave the White House?	Binary
84.440	When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?	Continuous
79.772	Will the U.S. Affordable Care Act be expanded to include a public option before the end of 2021?	Binary
79.602	Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?	Binary
79.561	Will Scott Morrison be Prime Minister of Australia on 1 July 2021?	Binary
79.343	Will Charles Murray receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
79.307	What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?	Continuous
78.890	Alexander Lukashenko to remain president of Belarus on January 31st, 2021?	Binary
78.442	Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to sexual harassment or unwanted sexual advances in 2021?	Binary
77.458	Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?	Binary
76.938	What will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?	Continuous
75.048	How will Donald Trump rank among presidents?	Continuous
75.035	What will be the state-of-the-art language modelling performance (in perplexity) on WikiText-103 by the following dates? (Jun 14, 2021)	Continuous
74.773	What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
74.070	Will Donald Trump be President of the United States of America on 2021-01-21?	Binary
73.713	Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?	Binary
72.861	What will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
72.831	Will Donald Trump attend Joe Biden’s inauguration ceremony in person?	Binary
70.927	How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?	Continuous
70.761	For the calendar year 2021, will peak monthly US unemployment occur within Q1?	Binary
70.735	How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?	Continuous
70.442	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
67.959	What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?	Continuous
67.737	What will the mean level of transit activity be in the city of Dallas, Texas for the week 2021-02-21 through 2021-02-27?	Continuous
67.231	What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
67.174	Will James Lindsay receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
66.168	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be United States-based in the TOP500 list on the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
65.891	Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
64.788	Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?	Binary
64.362	Will Germany make use of its Emergency Acts in light of COVID-19?	Binary
64.005	How effective will a second RCT find the most effective regimen of the AstraZenca SARS-CoV-2 vaccine to be?	Continuous
62.426	If California passes Proposition 22 to classify app-based drivers as independent contractors, what will Uber's adjusted EBITDA for the mobility segment be in Q1 2021?	Continuous
61.665	What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?	Continuous
61.344	What will be the lowest closing value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average before it reaches a new all-time record high close?	Continuous
61.079	How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
60.230	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
60.152	What will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?	Continuous
59.967	What will the cost of energy of utility-scale solar photovoltaics be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
58.557	How many DC Fast public charging outlets/connections will be available in the United States by 2022?	Continuous
57.736	When will these degrees of self-driving car autonomy be developed and commercially available? (L3)	Continuous
57.661	What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for April 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?	Continuous
57.406	Will enough signatures be gathered to schedule a recall election for California Govenor Gavin Newsom?	Binary
57.125	What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?	Continuous
57.003	Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?	Binary
56.811	Will Margaret Ferrier resign as MP before April 2021?	Binary
56.800	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
56.788	When will 10M people be administered a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
56.626	What will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
55.681	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
55.670	If the total estimated number of novel coronavirus cases before 2021 exceeds 100 million, how many people will die before January 1, 2021?	Continuous
55.510	Will China reach its NEV credit targets of 14% by 2021?	Binary
55.392	What will the total deal value be of all the US Private Equity deals in billions of US$, in 2020?	Continuous
54.490	How many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
54.281	Will Restaurant Brands International cease sourcing pork in North America from suppliers that use gestation stalls by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
53.700	How efficacious will the Sputnik V SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be according to the peer reviewed results of the Phase 3 RCT?	Continuous
53.403	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
52.833	When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?	Continuous
52.661	What will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?	Continuous
52.364	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?	Continuous
51.595	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
51.170	How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?	Continuous
51.035	Will 2021 be the hottest year on record according to NASA?	Binary
50.975	Will Planet Nine be Discovered by mid-2021?	Binary
49.640	What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?	Continuous
49.354	What will the total retail sales including food services be for January 2021?	Continuous
49.236	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be mail-in or absentee?	Continuous
48.941	How many e-prints on AI Safety, Interpretability or Explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
48.716	How many consumer plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) will be sold in the US in 2020?	Continuous
48.499	Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?	Binary
47.948	When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?	Continuous
47.659	Will Uber and Lyft both be operating in California on June 1st 2021?	Binary
45.193	Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?	Binary
44.471	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
44.038	Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?	Binary
43.947	What will the total retail sales including food services be for February 2021?	Continuous
43.891	Will no CRISPR-edited babies be born in the year 2020?	Binary
43.722	How many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from ROS.org in the year ending July 2021?	Continuous
43.123	Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?	Binary
40.425	Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?	Binary
40.354	What will the margin of victory be between John Ossoff and David Perdue in the 2020 5 Jan GA (Regular) Runoff Election?	Continuous
40.325	On November 2021, will >20% of Americans believe the 2020 election was rigged?	Binary
40.133	Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?	Binary
39.277	What will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
38.903	How many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
38.366	When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?	Continuous
37.995	How many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
37.738	Will the results of the Electoral College be formally challenged in the House in 2021?	Binary
37.707	How many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?	Continuous
35.706	Will the NYT end up publishing any articles mentioning SSC or SA in the next year?	Binary
35.316	Will Apple close its flagship 5th Ave store for a period of two weeks or longer before April 2021?	Binary
34.344	When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?	Continuous
34.333	Will it turn out that Bloomberg manipulated 2020 election prediction markets?	Binary
32.750	How many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
32.483	Will a nuclear device with a yield of at least 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2021?	Binary
32.160	What will be the Alexa Traffic Rank for Metaculus.com on January 1st 2022?	Continuous
30.986	Will Biden keep a +5% net Presidential approval rating throughout his first six months on the job?	Binary
30.233	How many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
29.431	Will the 1000th binary question resolution be positive?	Binary
29.304	How many new cases of COVID-19 in the 1st quarter of 2021?	Continuous
29.261	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for January 2021?	Continuous
27.540	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in February 2021?	Continuous
27.243	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?	Continuous
27.088	When will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?	Continuous
26.246	Will three or more United Nations Security Council resolutions be vetoed in 2021?	Binary
24.528	Will Netanyahu be convicted by the end of 2021?	Binary
23.734	What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?	Continuous
22.555	Will Andrew Yang run for mayor of New York in 2021?	Binary
22.129	Will Richard Spencer receive a long-term Twitter ban before 2021?	Binary
22.079	What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?	Continuous
21.641	What will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?	Continuous
20.930	When will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?	Continuous
20.651	How many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?	Continuous
19.446	What will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
17.395	By February 1st, 2021, will Twitter temporarily or permanently suspend @realDonaldTrump or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service?	Binary
17.141	When will the U.S. rejoin the Paris Climate Agreement?	Continuous
15.602	When will traviswfisher be unseated on the Metaculus leaderboard?	Continuous
14.646	How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?	Continuous
13.665	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
13.234	Will a Glastonbury Festival take place in 2021?	Binary
11.615	What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for February 2021?	Continuous
11.496	How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?	Continuous
10.503	How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?	Continuous
9.396	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
8.591	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?	Continuous
7.910	If the NYT publishes an article mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander by July 2021, will it include his full name?	Binary
6.965	Will any of the nonprofits incubated by Charity Entrepreneurship become a future ACE top or standout charity by Jan 1, 2022?	Binary
5.597	What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?	Continuous
4.984	How many total games will be played in the NFL's 2020-2021 regular season?	Continuous
4.457	What will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its 6th Assessment Report?	Continuous
4.024	Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?	Binary
3.510	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (June 2021)	Continuous
3.444	What will the US Q4 2020 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?	Continuous
3.152	Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?	Binary
3.101	In the 2020 US Presidential election, when will the losing candidate concede? [closes 2021-01-20]	Continuous
2.397	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (box AP)?	Continuous
1.468	When will the first Macs with Apple Silicon ship?	Continuous
1.148	How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-0.301	Will China's Tianwen-1 rover successfully land on Mars?	Binary
-0.454	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [1-8B range]	Continuous
-2.847	When will the Dow Jones Industrial Average set a new all-time record high close after the Coronavirus Crash of February 2020?	Continuous
-2.901	What will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of onshore wind be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?	Continuous
-6.118	Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online?	Binary
-6.502	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?	Continuous
-6.902	Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?	Binary
-7.274	If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?	Continuous
-8.054	How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021?	Continuous
-9.067	How many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?	Continuous
-12.123	What percent of ballots cast in the 2020 US general election will be cast via early in-person voting?	Continuous
-12.238	Will the Open Courts Act become law?	Binary
-12.683	Will Donald Trump attempt to pardon himself?	Binary
-13.200	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for February 2021?	Continuous
-13.786	What will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in January 2021?	Continuous
-14.709	Will Gladys Berejiklian cease to be Premier of NSW before the next state election?	Binary
-16.828	Will a high profile criminal investigation take down a "hidden website" on the Tor Network during 2021?	Binary
-17.192	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?	Continuous
-18.552	Will Japan place in the Top 4 at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics?	Binary
-22.403	Will an airborne wind energy system of at least 100kW be sold before 2022?	Binary
-23.402	How many infections of COVID-19 will be estimated to have occurred before 2021? [50k-1B range]	Continuous
-29.927	Will Washington state’s Department of Revenue report a gross business income for Q1 2021 that reaches or exceeds pre-COVID levels from Q1 2019?	Binary
-32.746	What will the margin of victory be between Kelly Loeffler and Raphael Warnock in the 2020 5 Jan GA Special Election?	Continuous
-33.897	When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?	Continuous
-34.296	If Lesswrong holds a similar Petrov Day event in 2021, will the "red button" be pressed?	Binary
-35.732	Will the UK's second wave reach 1000 deaths/day?	Binary
-35.760	What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?	Continuous
-38.166	Will Mathias Cormann become the next secretary-general of the OECD?	Binary
-44.505	Will AMC Theatres file for bankruptcy protection before April 1 2021?	Binary
-45.332	How many consumer electric vehicles (including PHEV, HEV and EV) will be sold by Volkswagen group in 2020?	Continuous
-46.827	Will the Supreme Court of the US uphold the lower court's ruling in California v. Texas?	Binary
-47.104	Will Trump attempt to pardon a member of his family?	Binary
-51.986	What will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?	Continuous
-59.796	What percentage of absentee ballots will be rejected in the 2020 US election?	Continuous
-60.490	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?	Binary
-61.652	Will Derek Chauvin be acquitted of all murder charges?	Binary
-63.939	Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?	Binary
-69.802	What will be the value of C-band spectrum auctioned off by the FCC in Auction 107?	Continuous
-77.549	When will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?	Continuous
-80.214	Will an AI be trained using an Avogadro's number of operations before the end of 2020?	Binary
-84.737	Will the US Senate Majority Leader be a Republican on February 1st 2021?	Binary
-88.920	When will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?	Continuous
-101.151	Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at any point during the 2020s?	Binary
-131.671	When will the US-Canada border reopen?	Continuous
-154.731	When will the Chicago Symphony Orchestra have a public performance inside their concert hall?	Continuous
-155.699	What will be the Industrial Production Index number for January 2021?	Continuous
-171.476	Which month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?	Continuous
-177.620	What will the maximum z-score be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?	Continuous
-198.158	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Jun-2021)	Continuous
-208.055	What will inflation be in the US in 2021?	Continuous
-223.942	When will Disneyland reopen?	Continuous