| 211.076 | How many additional indictments will have been filed against Donald Trump on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 197.517 | What will be the total number of military fatalities at the North and South Korean border between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 144.369 | How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023? | Continuous |
| 143.819 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Donald Trump) | Continuous |
| 103.835 | What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022? | Continuous |
| 100.247 | How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes? | Continuous |
| 99.787 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 99.438 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 99.329 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 99.267 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Palin) | Binary |
| 99.159 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 98.914 | Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2025? | Binary |
| 98.785 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ivanka Trump) | Binary |
| 98.728 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 98.688 | Will OpenAI be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.674 | Will X (formerly Twitter) be a public company on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 98.649 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kim Reynolds) | Binary |
| 98.420 | When will the UK hold its next general election? | Continuous |
| 98.344 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 98.120 | Will Israel use nuclear weapons in combat before October 7, 2024? | Binary |
| 97.707 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 97.674 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Marianne Williamson) | Binary |
| 97.591 | If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day? | Binary |
| 97.494 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 97.350 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 97.222 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 97.199 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 97.160 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Chris Christie) | Binary |
| 97.002 | Which Republican candidate will win the most delegates on Super Tuesday? | Multiple Choice |
| 96.869 | Will any peer-reviewed replication attempt before 2025 confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 96.849 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 96.645 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Andrew Yang) | Binary |
| 96.528 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 96.457 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mark Cuban) | Binary |
| 96.409 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 96.356 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Asa Hutchinson) | Binary |
| 96.179 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Liz Cheney) | Binary |
| 96.165 | Will there be at least one operational nuclear power plant in Germany on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 95.823 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dwayne Johnson) | Binary |
| 95.713 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Nancy Mace) | Binary |
| 95.705 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Will Hurd) | Binary |
| 95.652 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Francis Suarez) | Binary |
| 95.458 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 95.295 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Texas) | Binary |
| 94.970 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Joni Ernst) | Binary |
| 94.807 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mitt Romney) | Binary |
| 94.698 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 94.653 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 94.623 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marjorie Taylor Greene) | Binary |
| 94.324 | Trump Removed or Blocked From Primary Ballot? (No) → 2024 Republican Presidential Nominee? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 94.271 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Dean Phillips) | Binary |
| 94.220 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Robert F. Kennedy Jr.) | Binary |
| 94.061 | Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023? | Binary |
| 93.954 | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 93.899 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Donald Trump) | Binary |
| 93.862 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence) | Binary |
| 93.785 | Will there be a non-test nuclear detonation in Iran before 2025? | Binary |
| 93.777 | Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023? | Binary |
| 93.366 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Ohio) | Binary |
| 93.204 | Will Adobe acquire Figma by the end of 2024? | Binary |
| 92.701 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Florida) | Binary |
| 92.598 | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Binary |
| 91.589 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tucker Carlson) | Binary |
| 91.146 | Donald Trump wins 2024 Republican Nomination? (Yes) → Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? | Binary |
| 90.939 | Will Norway leave EEA before 2025? | Binary |
| 90.796 | What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025? | Continuous |
| 90.534 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Byron Donalds) | Binary |
| 90.422 | On Election Day 2024, will Donald Trump be a third-party candidate for the US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 90.134 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Iowa) | Binary |
| 89.770 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 89.545 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tulsi Gabbard) | Binary |
| 89.495 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 89.315 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kari Lake) | Binary |
| 89.210 | Will a major Republican run as a third-party candidate in the 2024 Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 89.080 | Will Elon Musk be chairman of X (formerly Twitter) on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 88.942 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Alaska) | Binary |
| 88.847 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 87.836 | Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022? | Binary |
| 86.891 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the general ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 86.874 | Will an LLM by Apple be ranked in the top-5 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.657 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 86.229 | Will at least one nuclear whistle-blower go public between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 86.173 | Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023? | Binary |
| 85.779 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| 85.221 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| 85.221 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Larry Elder) | Binary |
| 84.625 | What will be the lowest US unemployment rate in 2022? | Continuous |
| 84.609 | Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 84.486 | Will OpenAI's ChatGPT be generally available in the European Union on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 84.172 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 84.092 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Mar-2024) | Continuous |
| 84.091 | Meaningful commitments from UK AI Summit? (No) → ChatGPT available in Europe on June 30, 2024? | Binary |
| 83.486 | Will Hillary Clinton be a candidate for President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 83.233 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (June-24) | Continuous |
| 82.991 | What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election? | Continuous |
| 82.697 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, D Senate) | Binary |
| 82.515 | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Binary |
| 81.900 | What will the UK consumer price inflation rate for April 2024 be? | Continuous |
| 81.511 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Feb-2024) | Continuous |
| 81.339 | Who will declare as a third-party or independent candidate for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Manchin) | Binary |
| 81.172 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 81.124 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Cenk Uygur) | Binary |
| 81.092 | Will one or more recognized Federal Subjects of the Russian Federation break away before 2025? | Binary |
| 81.007 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (NJ First Lady Tammy Murphy (D)) | Binary |
| 80.496 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 80.353 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (July-24) | Continuous |
| 80.210 | Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025? | Binary |
| 80.043 | Will US Attorney General Merrick Garland be impeached before the 2024 federal election? | Binary |
| 79.552 | Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 78.601 | How many Electoral College votes will the Democratic Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 78.440 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 77.985 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Binary |
| 77.558 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 77.394 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| 77.370 | Will the GOP win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) (Yes) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 77.157 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (North Carolina) | Binary |
| 77.141 | Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 77.068 | What will be the maximum CPI inflation measured in 2022? | Continuous |
| 76.770 | How many Electoral College votes will the Republican Party nominee win in the 2024 presidential election? | Continuous |
| 76.484 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Apr-2024) | Continuous |
| 76.401 | Will Alphabet’s (GOOG) market capitalisation fall below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 76.284 | When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party? | Continuous |
| 76.130 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 75.922 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Tim Scott) | Binary |
| 75.393 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | Binary |
| 75.362 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 75.257 | Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31? | Binary |
| 75.200 | Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 75.198 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris (D)) | Binary |
| 75.160 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 1) | Binary |
| 73.188 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (D President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 73.129 | How many total arm sales to Taiwan will the US State Department approve between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 73.059 | How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue? | Continuous |
| 72.730 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Glenn Youngkin) | Binary |
| 72.712 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Georgia) | Binary |
| 72.499 | What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive? | Continuous |
| 72.484 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Jill Stein) | Binary |
| 72.484 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Cornel West) | Binary |
| 72.447 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Chase Oliver) | Binary |
| 72.088 | Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 71.380 | What will be the average unemployment in the US from January 2022 to December 2024? | Continuous |
| 71.257 | Will Mitch McConnell cease to be the US Senate Republican Leader before the next presidential inauguration (January 20, 2025)? | Binary |
| 71.148 | Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023? | Binary |
| 70.547 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Kristi Noem) | Binary |
| 70.194 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jun-2024) | Continuous |
| 69.469 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 69.441 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (Jul-2024) | Continuous |
| 68.956 | Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022? | Binary |
| 68.439 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 2) | Binary |
| 67.800 | If these candidates are nominated, will they win the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump (R)) | Binary |
| 67.328 | Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years? (2025) | Binary |
| 67.190 | Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta? | Binary |
| 67.090 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Arizona) | Binary |
| 66.516 | Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025? | Binary |
| 66.233 | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 65.577 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Stacy Abrams) | Binary |
| 65.343 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Nikki Haley) | Binary |
| 65.087 | Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025? | Binary |
| 65.050 | When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued) | Continuous |
| 64.677 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) | Binary |
| 64.465 | Will Bing's search engine market share be at least 5% in March of 2024? | Binary |
| 64.325 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ted Cruz) | Binary |
| 64.293 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Mexico) | Binary |
| 64.276 | Will the stock price of NVIDIA trade below $250 (adjusted to pre-split value) for at least 1 full day before 2025? | Binary |
| 64.145 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Donald Trump Jr.) | Binary |
| 63.901 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Michelle Obama) | Binary |
| 63.841 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Elizabeth Warren) | Binary |
| 63.828 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Hillary Clinton) | Binary |
| 63.807 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Bernie Sanders) | Binary |
| 63.371 | Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis) | Binary |
| 62.525 | Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025? | Binary |
| 61.779 | Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025? | Binary |
| 61.745 | When will Julian Assange be extradited to the US? | Continuous |
| 61.712 | In these months, what will be Biden's polling margin over Trump according to RealClearPolitics' 2024 election polling average? (May-2024) | Continuous |
| 61.020 | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024? | Binary |
| 60.564 | Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections? | Binary |
| 60.542 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election? | Binary |
| 60.242 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Hampshire) | Binary |
| 60.066 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nevada) | Binary |
| 59.829 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (J. B. Pritzker) | Binary |
| 59.236 | Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024? | Binary |
| 59.043 | Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session?? | Binary |
| 58.972 | Will 2022 be the hottest year on record? | Binary |
| 58.656 | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.630 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 58.434 | How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 58.383 | Will any OpenAI or Anthropic model be in the top-10 model with a non-proprietary license on May 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 58.376 | Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU? | Binary |
| 57.836 | Will Meta Platforms (Facebook) sell Instagram or WhatsApp before 2025? | Binary |
| 57.782 | What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 57.369 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Colorado) | Binary |
| 56.927 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Pete Buttigieg) | Binary |
| 56.373 | What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 56.203 | Donald Trump as Third-Party Candidate 2024? (No) → Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 55.989 | Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 55.342 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Wisconsin) | Binary |
| 54.904 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, D House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 54.865 | Will the US be credibly reported to have gone to DEFCON levels 3, 2 or 1 before 2025? (Level 3) | Binary |
| 54.810 | If Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency, will that disqualification be ruled unconstitutional before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 54.799 | How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| 54.570 | Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment? | Binary |
| 54.404 | 5% Bing Market Share in March 2024? (No) → GOOG Market Cap Below $1 Trillion by 2025? | Binary |
| 54.138 | Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023? | Binary |
| 54.096 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| 54.068 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Elise Stefanik) | Binary |
| 53.931 | Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024? | Binary |
| 53.347 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Katie Britt) | Binary |
| 53.267 | When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA? | Continuous |
| 52.568 | How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 52.472 | How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023) | Continuous |
| 52.096 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (July 2024) | Continuous |
| 51.346 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Feb-24) | Continuous |
| 51.247 | Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam? | Binary |
| 51.200 | Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022? | Binary |
| 50.436 | What will be the total number of air incursions into the ADIZ between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 50.414 | In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state? | Binary |
| 49.724 | What will be the total capacity (in GW) for all operational offshore windfarms in the UK on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 49.659 | When will Neuralink first implant a brain-machine interface device in a living human? | Continuous |
| 49.377 | Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022? | Binary |
| 48.850 | Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates? (2025) | Binary |
| 48.286 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Pennsylvania) | Binary |
| 48.094 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Ben Carson) | Binary |
| 48.002 | What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating? | Continuous |
| 47.721 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (December 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 47.546 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Minnesota) | Binary |
| 46.812 | Will Sarah Sanders be on the Republican ticket in the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 46.677 | Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 46.531 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2022) | Continuous |
| 46.225 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Apr-24) | Continuous |
| 45.811 | What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 45.799 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jul-24) | Continuous |
| 45.731 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Marco Rubio) | Binary |
| 45.653 | When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.? | Continuous |
| 45.181 | What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025? | Continuous |
| 45.115 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Michigan) | Binary |
| 45.005 | Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024? | Binary |
| 44.884 | What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 44.884 | Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 44.857 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrats) | Continuous |
| 44.833 | In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results? | Binary |
| 44.818 | What will be the US labor force participation rate for the May 2024? | Continuous |
| 44.629 | Will China's GDP grow in Q2 to Q4 2022? | Binary |
| 44.433 | Will Biden's 538 approval rating be above the following values on the following days? (2024 Jan 31st, ≥ 40%) | Binary |
| 44.378 | Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023? | Binary |
| 44.078 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Virginia) | Binary |
| 43.762 | What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list? | Continuous |
| 43.404 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| 43.386 | How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 43.262 | Will Donald Trump be charged with witness tampering in Georgia before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.929 | Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023? | Binary |
| 42.873 | Will at least 2 of the countries listed below be reinfected with either WPV1 or cVDPV before June 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.217 | Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024? | Binary |
| 42.156 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (April 2024) | Continuous |
| 41.729 | How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021? | Continuous |
| 41.698 | What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics? | Continuous |
| 41.480 | Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions? | Binary |
| 41.069 | When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel? | Continuous |
| 40.952 | Will Section 230, ruling no liability for false or defamatory posts from users on internet platforms, be revoked or amended in the US by January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 40.848 | Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023? | Binary |
| 40.657 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Aug-24) | Continuous |
| 40.644 | What will China's total population be in these years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 40.006 | Will 2022 be warmer than 2021? | Binary |
| 39.625 | What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016? | Continuous |
| 39.490 | What will the seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate be in the United States in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| 39.432 | Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 39.283 | What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022) | Continuous |
| 38.332 | How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in the following years? (2024) | Continuous |
| 37.938 | What percentage of US children under 5-years-old will have at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 37.896 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (September 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 37.778 | When will the next German government be formed? | Continuous |
| 37.457 | What will be the Nino 3.4 sea surface temperature (in degrees Celsius) be for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 37.395 | How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean? | Continuous |
| 37.160 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (March 31, 2024) | Continuous |
| 37.143 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (R. Sunak (Tories)) | Binary |
| 37.116 | Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024? | Binary |
| 36.999 | When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target? | Continuous |
| 36.864 | Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 36.688 | Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025? | Binary |
| 36.671 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Nikki Haley) | Continuous |
| 36.520 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Gavin Newsom) | Binary |
| 36.242 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (statewide)) | Binary |
| 35.966 | Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025? | Binary |
| 35.823 | What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list? | Continuous |
| 35.791 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate & House) | Binary |
| 35.468 | Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023? | Binary |
| 35.423 | Will Linda Yaccarino be the CEO of Twitter on July 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 34.954 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 34.379 | Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023? | Binary |
| 33.975 | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Binary |
| 33.666 | What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years? (2023) | Continuous |
| 33.625 | What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 33.261 | What will be the upper limit of the federal funds target range on the following dates? (June 30, 2024) | Continuous |
| 33.226 | What will the US government balance of power be after the 2024 elections? (R President, R House, R Senate) | Binary |
| 33.115 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate, Dem House) | Binary |
| 32.955 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Conservative and Unionist Party) | Continuous |
| 32.836 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Ariane 6) | Continuous |
| 32.641 | What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500? | Continuous |
| 32.173 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New Jersey) | Binary |
| 32.081 | What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023? | Continuous |
| 31.947 | Will Elon Musk face US federal criminal charges or an SEC civil complaint before 2026? | Binary |
| 31.854 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 31.742 | What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022? | Continuous |
| 30.638 | Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024? | Binary |
| 30.534 | What will US inflation be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 30.431 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jun-24) | Continuous |
| 29.926 | What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15? | Continuous |
| 29.152 | How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022? | Continuous |
| 29.080 | What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022? | Continuous |
| 28.397 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| 28.265 | What will the price of oil be for December 2022? | Continuous |
| 27.666 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (BJP) | Binary |
| 27.666 | Which party will form the government after the next Indian general election in 2024? (INC) | Binary |
| 27.529 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Sam Bankman-Fried) | Binary |
| 27.436 | Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session? | Binary |
| 27.411 | What will be the US Consumer Sentiment for May 2024? | Continuous |
| 27.401 | What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review? | Continuous |
| 26.860 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (New Glenn) | Continuous |
| 26.506 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Senator Bob Menendez (D)) | Binary |
| 25.958 | Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023? | Binary |
| 25.779 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gretchen Whitmer) | Binary |
| 25.670 | Will Romania unite with Moldova before 2025? | Binary |
| 25.538 | How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime? | Continuous |
| 25.135 | What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| 25.026 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (New York) | Binary |
| 24.912 | Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 24.894 | Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024? | Binary |
| 24.755 | Will the EU AI Act implement regulations on foundation models? | Binary |
| 24.107 | Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023? | Binary |
| 23.867 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Donald Norcross (D)) | Binary |
| 23.867 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Josh Gottheimer (D)) | Binary |
| 23.867 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Frank Pallone (D)) | Binary |
| 23.867 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Bonnie Watson Coleman (D)) | Binary |
| 23.867 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (State Senate Majority Leader Teresa Ruiz (D)) | Binary |
| 23.867 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Lt. Governor Tahesha Way (D)) | Binary |
| 23.822 | When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO? | Continuous |
| 23.796 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour) | Continuous |
| 23.747 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Mikie Sherrill (D)) | Binary |
| 23.747 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Representative Andy Kim (D)) | Binary |
| 23.522 | Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| 23.494 | Who will be the Class I Senator from New Jersey on February 1, 2024? (Vacant) | Binary |
| 22.690 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| 22.452 | Will the party led by X form the first government after the next UK election? (K. Starmer (Labour)) | Binary |
| 21.939 | Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Binary |
| 21.550 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon in the following years? (2024) | Binary |
| 21.303 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Asa Hutchinson) | Continuous |
| 21.131 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (1st CD)) | Binary |
| 20.716 | Will Sweden join NATO before 2025? | Binary |
| 19.657 | Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections? | Binary |
| 19.625 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Maine (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| 19.440 | By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis? | Binary |
| 18.815 | Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Tim Walz) | Binary |
| 18.693 | What percentage of the popular vote will the African National Congress get in the 2024 South African general election? | Continuous |
| 18.651 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions? | Binary |
| 18.042 | Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024? | Binary |
| 17.452 | What will be the total bilateral commitments of Ukraine support (in billions of EUR) on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 17.275 | Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious? | Binary |
| 17.213 | Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023? | Binary |
| 16.962 | What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.830 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Sep-24) | Continuous |
| 16.668 | Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election? | Binary |
| 16.500 | How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022? | Continuous |
| 16.170 | Will Sadiq Khan win re-election in the 2024 London Mayoral Elections? | Binary |
| 16.115 | Will Magnus Carlsen compete in the next World Chess Championship match? | Binary |
| 16.107 | What will be the UK natural gas futures price (GBp/thm) for May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 15.799 | What will be the real price of gas (per gallon, 2022 USD) in the US on the following dates? (October 2024) | Continuous |
| 15.376 | Will a university other than Oxford or Cambridge be ranked first in the Times & Sunday Times Good University Guide 2023 again? | Binary |
| 15.149 | Will Israeli forces reach the Palestinian Legislative Council building in Gaza before the listed dates? (March 1, 2024) | Binary |
| 15.045 | Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| 14.658 | Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023? | Binary |
| 14.403 | Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election? | Binary |
| 14.109 | [Short Fuse] Will OSHA's Emergency Temporary Standard vaccine mandate be blocked or struck down by the US Supreme Court? | Binary |
| 13.257 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Vivek Ramaswamy) | Continuous |
| 12.014 | How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 11.593 | Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions? | Binary |
| 11.581 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Chris Christie) | Continuous |
| 11.532 | What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| 11.332 | Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024? | Binary |
| 11.286 | How many OpenAI or Anthropic model versions will be released between December 1, 2023 and May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| 11.142 | When will a SpaceX Starship launched as a second stage reach an altitude of 100 kilometers? | Continuous |
| 10.896 | Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022? | Binary |
| 10.640 | What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models? | Continuous |
| 10.285 | What will President Joe Biden's net approval rating be on November 1, 2024? | Continuous |
| 10.012 | Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election? | Binary |
| 9.488 | Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election? | Binary |
| 9.453 | Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election? | Binary |
| 9.438 | Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams? | Binary |
| 9.352 | Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020? | Binary |
| 8.926 | Will the ANC receive more than 50% of the vote in the 2024 South African general election? | Binary |
| 8.074 | Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022? | Binary |
| 7.745 | Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022? | Binary |
| 7.712 | Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025? | Binary |
| 7.581 | Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024? | Binary |
| 7.550 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Satya Nadella) | Binary |
| 7.383 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Andrej Karpathy) | Binary |
| 7.328 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Eric Schmidt) | Binary |
| 7.168 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Mira Murati) | Binary |
| 7.068 | Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022? | Binary |
| 6.944 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Ilya Sutskever) | Binary |
| 6.602 | Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025? | Binary |
| 6.556 | Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024? | Binary |
| 6.333 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Nishad Singh) | Binary |
| 6.263 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Emmett Shear) | Binary |
| 5.953 | Who will be the next non-interim CEO of OpenAI? (Sam Altman) | Binary |
| 5.815 | When will the following vehicles launch into orbit? (Vulcan Centaur) | Continuous |
| 5.484 | What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023) | Continuous |
| 5.433 | Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023? | Binary |
| 5.258 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Labour Party) | Continuous |
| 5.210 | Will China's economy grow faster than India's in 2023? | Binary |
| 4.889 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (SDLP) | Continuous |
| 4.859 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Alliance) | Continuous |
| 4.840 | If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen? | Continuous |
| 4.778 | When will OpenAI make the GPT-4 model available for free ChatGPT users? | Continuous |
| 4.287 | What will total oil demand globally be in 2021? | Continuous |
| 4.241 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (DUP) | Continuous |
| 3.903 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Plaid Cymru) | Continuous |
| 3.829 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Sinn Féin) | Continuous |
| 3.817 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 3.705 | Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled? | Binary |
| 3.539 | When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land? | Continuous |
| 3.430 | If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be? | Continuous |
| 2.928 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Greens) | Continuous |
| 2.856 | Democrat Wins 2024 US Presidential Election? (No) → 2024 US election considered fraudulent? | Binary |
| 2.723 | Will there be a Frontier AI lab in a non-Democracy before 2026? | Binary |
| 2.310 | Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024? | Binary |
| 2.232 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output Yes) | Binary |
| 2.076 | Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment? | Binary |
| 2.051 | Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024? | Binary |
| 1.908 | Will copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024? | Binary |
| 1.784 | Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024? | Binary |
| 1.451 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat) | Continuous |
| 1.437 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Feb-24) | Continuous |
| 1.301 | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Binary |
| 1.258 | Will the first independent replication attempt confirm the discovery of room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductivity in LK-99? | Binary |
| 1.087 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Caroline Ellison) | Binary |
| 0.970 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Reform UK) | Continuous |
| 0.916 | Who if any of the FTX/Alameda top leaders will have been convicted of a U.S. federal felony before 2026? (Gary Wang) | Binary |
| 0.845 | How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period? | Continuous |
| 0.679 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (2: Candidacy granted) | Continuous |
| 0.516 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Reform) | Continuous |
| 0.515 | Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11? | Binary |
| 0.512 | Will WHO add another SARS-CoV-2 variant to their Variants of Concern in 2022? | Binary |
| 0.262 | Hunter Biden Indicted by Nov 5, 2024? (Yes) → Joe Biden Impeached by House? | Binary |
| 0.260 | When will these Republicans end their 2024 primary campaigns? (Ron DeSantis) | Continuous |
| 0.056 | Will a Navy ship be captured, scuttled, sunk, or critically damaged in the Black Sea before 2025? | Binary |
| 0.050 | Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025? | Binary |
| -0.884 | What will be The Economist's estimated global excess deaths due to COVID-19 on January 1, 2023? | Continuous |
| -1.101 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input No, Output No) | Binary |
| -1.396 | When will Kwasi Kwarteng no longer hold the office of UK chancellor of the Exchequer? | Continuous |
| -2.026 | When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months? | Continuous |
| -3.558 | Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a "deepfake" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025? | Binary |
| -4.125 | When will the UK Labour Party next maintain a 10-point polling lead for a month? | Continuous |
| -4.488 | Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections? | Binary |
| -4.991 | Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025? | Binary |
| -5.008 | Will the Republican nominee for President in 2024 win these battleground states? (Nebraska (2nd CD)) | Binary |
| -5.380 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (Doug Burgum) | Binary |
| -5.614 | Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years? | Binary |
| -5.981 | Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle? | Binary |
| -6.457 | What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -8.402 | Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023? | Binary |
| -9.787 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (May-24) | Continuous |
| -10.638 | Will GPT-4 input and/or output images? (Input Yes, Output No) | Binary |
| -11.049 | When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths? | Continuous |
| -11.602 | When will the next UK general election take place? | Continuous |
| -11.743 | Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024? | Binary |
| -13.393 | Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023? | Binary |
| -13.440 | Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023? | Binary |
| -14.895 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Democrat Senate, Rep House) | Binary |
| -14.972 | What MMLU benchmark score will Google DeepMind's Gemini model have on release? | Continuous |
| -17.690 | What will be the US Federal Funds Rate on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -17.874 | By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election? | Binary |
| -19.284 | What will be the wheat price on May 31, 2024? | Continuous |
| -21.765 | What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025? | Continuous |
| -21.906 | Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023? | Binary |
| -23.302 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative) | Continuous |
| -23.518 | How many cases of vaccine-derived poliovirus will there be between January 1, 2024 and May 31, 2024 in the Democratic Republic of Congo? | Continuous |
| -24.076 | Will Dianne Feinstein resign from the Senate before the end of her term in early 2025? | Binary |
| -27.430 | Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025? | Binary |
| -28.039 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Mar-24) | Continuous |
| -28.151 | Will the US require and verify reporting of large AI training runs before 2026? | Binary |
| -29.609 | What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD? | Continuous |
| -31.777 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden) | Binary |
| -32.995 | Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023) | Binary |
| -33.875 | [short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022? | Binary |
| -34.649 | What share of the popular vote will these parties win in the next UK general election? (Green Party of England and Wales) | Continuous |
| -35.064 | What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing? | Continuous |
| -39.008 | Will any US court rule that Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding the presidency before January 20, 2025? | Binary |
| -41.757 | What will be the change in seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll employment in the following months? (Jan-24) | Continuous |
| -43.883 | Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform? | Binary |
| -46.870 | What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14? | Continuous |
| -47.394 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -49.818 | What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data? | Continuous |
| -51.646 | Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025? | Binary |
| -55.130 | Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House) | Binary |
| -56.714 | Will AI be meaningfully discussed by both candidates in the 2024 US Presidential Debates? | Binary |
| -57.325 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (4: Negotiations approved) | Continuous |
| -60.074 | Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024? | Binary |
| -79.174 | What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021? | Continuous |
| -82.288 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (3: Negotiations recommended) | Continuous |
| -83.986 | Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Party nominee for President of the United States on election day in 2024? | Binary |
| -85.804 | Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023? | Binary |
| -85.808 | When will each of these steps happen in Ukraine's EU accession process? (5: Negotiations initiated) | Continuous |
| -91.627 | What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD? | Continuous |
| -97.320 | Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023? | Binary |
| -111.439 | How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party) | Continuous |
| -113.383 | Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022? | Binary |
| -118.606 | Who will be the 2024 Republican nominee for Vice President on election day? (J.D. Vance) | Binary |
| -148.098 | In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, will Donald Trump and Joe Biden be the top two candidates in terms of electoral votes received? | Binary |
| -150.698 | Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris) | Binary |
| -161.519 | What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy? | Continuous |
| -166.139 | What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months? | Continuous |