Bernhard

User

Duration:1 year

Time Period:2022

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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2.371k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
105.386	How many US troops will be in Europe on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
93.380	Will Russia invade any country other than Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
91.429	How many people in Russia will be arrested for participating in anti-war protests before 2023?	Continuous
89.959	Will NATO declare a No-Fly Zone anywhere in Ukraine before 2023?	Binary
89.216	Will Russia annex Transnistria in 2022?	Binary
87.226	Will Odessa be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
86.034	Will Ukraine join the Union State before 2023?	Binary
85.857	Will Sumy be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
85.068	Will Belarus invade Ukraine before June 1, 2022?	Binary
84.968	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by December 31, 2022?	Binary
84.514	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on January 1, 2023?	Binary
84.301	Will Kyiv be under Russian control before 2023?	Binary
83.218	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by March 31, 2022?	Binary
81.940	Will Russia or Russia-based actors cut the Kerch Strait Cable before 2023?	Binary
81.382	What will be the highest 7-day average number of daily new cases reported in Virginia between January 14th, 2022 and April 8th, 2022?	Continuous
76.384	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
75.344	Before January 1, 2023, will Russia invade or annex all or part of Belarus?	Binary
74.497	How much crude oil will the US hold in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as of December 2022?	Continuous
71.253	Will any NATO country invoke Article 5 by June 30, 2022?	Binary
70.966	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain President of Ukraine by 2023?	Binary
70.365	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Boris Johnson)	Binary
69.281	Will Russia recognize Transnistria as a sovereign country by December 31, 2022?	Binary
67.325	Will the weights of the 175B parameter model be made publicly available via a leak or hack by 2023?	Binary
66.799	Will CAIDA measure a major disruption of the Ukrainian internet for 24 hours before August 2022?	Binary
65.549	Will Russia control Kyiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
62.412	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Michael Gove)	Binary
62.101	Will Xi Jinping be re-elected paramount leader in 2022?	Binary
60.979	Will the US CDC recommend use of a smallpox/monkeypox vaccine for at least 10% of the US population, before 2023?	Binary
59.945	Will any Fields Medal winner boycott ICM 2022 for political reasons?	Binary
59.730	Will 2022 venture capital investment in cybersecurity companies surpass 2021?	Binary
58.299	Flu Hospitalizations for VT (Feb 5)	Continuous
57.433	How many civilian casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War will there be before May 2022?	Continuous
55.086	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Tom Tugendhat)	Binary
55.038	Will Kassym-Jomart Tokayev exit the Presidency of Kazakhstan in 2022?	Binary
54.222	Will more than 10,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
53.516	Will one half of currently threatened Ukrainian cities be under Russian military control by June 2022?	Binary
53.080	Will more than 50,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
53.003	Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?	Binary
51.225	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Priti Patel)	Binary
49.906	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Jeremy Hunt)	Binary
49.133	Will more than 25,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War in 2022?	Binary
48.390	Will Russia control Vinnytsia on June 1, 2022?	Binary
48.216	What will be the reported number of 7-day average new Covid-19 cases in Mainland China on 2022-02-28?	Continuous
48.128	Will Stacey Abrams be elected Governor of Georgia in 2022?	Binary
46.990	Will an Eliciting Latent Knowledge prize of $50,000 be awarded?	Binary
46.820	Will Russia control Kharkiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
46.748	Will Russia invade Ukraine before February 1, 2022?	Binary
46.734	Will there be a Tau variant of COVID by Tau Day (June 28, 2022)?	Binary
45.968	Will Russia control Cherkasy on June 1, 2022?	Binary
44.193	Flu Hospitalizations for WY (Feb 5)	Continuous
44.135	Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet to discuss the peaceful resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict before 2023?	Binary
43.890	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on May 13, 2022?	Continuous
43.053	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Penny Mordaunt)	Binary
41.673	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Ben Wallace)	Binary
39.803	Will Russia formally declare war with Ukraine before August 1, 2022?	Binary
38.454	Will Russian troops enter Odessa, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
37.818	Flu Hospitalizations for FL (Feb 5)	Continuous
37.582	Will Facebook decide to make the weights of the 175B parameter model publicly available before 2023?	Binary
37.271	Will Russia control Chernihiv on June 1, 2022?	Binary
36.294	Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be named Time Person of the Year in 2022?	Binary
33.976	If Russia vetoes the UN Security Council vote to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, will the UN General Assembly override the veto?	Binary
31.636	Will a cyberattack using the Log4J exploit cause $20 million in damage to a single target before September 1, 2022?	Binary
30.930	Flu Hospitalizations for OK (Feb 5)	Continuous
30.276	Will Princeton cancel in person classes in January 2022?	Binary
27.556	What will be the 7-day moving average of current confirmed+pending COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia on Jan 28, 2022?	Continuous
27.459	Will Ukraine win the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest?	Binary
26.967	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
26.212	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Rishi Sunak)	Binary
24.854	How many seats will Democrats hold in the US Senate after 2022 midterm elections?	Continuous
23.813	What will be the 7-day moving average of daily new reported cases in Virginia on the 28th of January, 2022?	Continuous
23.429	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Aug 21, 2022)	Continuous
22.760	By February 6, 2022, will the James Webb Space Telescope successfully see First Light?	Binary
20.348	Will Éric Zemmour be in the 2nd round of the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
18.415	Will Raphael Warnock be re-elected in the 2022 United States Senate election in Georgia?	Binary
18.215	Will cumulative reported deaths from Covid-19 in China exceed 50,000 before 2023?	Binary
16.515	Will at least three European countries refuse to buy natural gas from Russia in 2022?	Binary
16.511	Will the Buffalo Bills play in Super Bowl LVI?	Binary
14.185	Who will Twitter unban before 2023? (Donald Trump)	Binary
14.137	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report each month for Russia in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
13.772	How many successful orbital rocket launches will there be in 2022?	Continuous
13.666	What will be Virginia’s weekly peak of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations before 1 May 2022?	Continuous
12.406	Will at least four REvil gang members be in prison on May 15, 2022?	Binary
10.421	Will the European Central Bank raise interest rates in 2022?	Binary
9.676	Flu Hospitalizations for CA (Feb 5)	Continuous
8.806	Will the 2022 Eurovision Song Contest be won by a country that is, at the time, also a member of the European Union?	Binary
8.362	Will Russian troops enter Mariupol, Ukraine by December 31, 2022?	Binary
7.836	Will Russia default on its debt in 2022?	Binary
7.505	Will Viktor Orbán win the 2022 Hungarian Parliamentary Election?	Binary
6.376	Will Ketanji Brown Jackson be confirmed as an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court before 2023?	Binary
6.054	Will Gotabaya Rajapaksa no longer be the President of Sri Lanka before 2023?	Binary
5.865	What percentage of the vote share will Carrick Flynn receive in the OR-6 Democratic primary?	Continuous
4.254	If Russia invades Ukraine, will the United States cut Russian banks off from the SWIFT system by 2023?	Binary
2.841	Will EA Global London 2022 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?	Binary
2.768	What will be the total number of confirmed and suspected monkeypox cases in Europe as of July 1, 2022?	Continuous
2.260	Will Carrick Flynn win the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th congressional district?	Binary
0.083	Will Liverpool win the 2021-2022 Premier League?	Binary
0.081	Will there be a female Fields Medalist in 2022?	Binary
-2.720	Will Blake Masters win the 2022 United States Senate election in Arizona?	Binary
-2.841	Will the U.S. Congress pass legislation authorizing at least $50 billion to the semiconductor industry before May 1, 2022?	Binary
-2.982	How much military equipment losses will Oryx report for Ukraine each month in 2022? (Jul 24, 2022)	Continuous
-5.724	Will Elon Musk acquire over 50% of Twitter by December 31, 2022?	Binary
-5.935	In 2022, how many people will be charged by US DOJ with seditious conspiracy in connection with the Jan 6 Capitol attack?	Continuous
-7.100	Will Sweden's government initiate the process of joining NATO in 2022?	Binary
-9.283	[short fuse] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in 2022?	Binary
-17.341	Will WHO declare the spread of monkeypox a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2023?	Binary
-31.432	How many border crossings leaving Ukraine will there be in 2022?	Continuous
-32.546	What will be the percentage of the fully vaccinated population with booster/third dose of COVID-19 vaccine in Virginia on March 11th, 2022?	Continuous
-34.298	Will more than 20,000 people die within 28 days of a positive Covid test in the UK in 2022?	Binary
-34.949	What percent of ransomware victims whose data was encrypted will report paying a ransom in 2022?	Continuous
-37.633	Will the US executive branch attempt to ban or otherwise further limit ransomware payments in 2022?	Binary
-38.209	Flu Hospitalizations for NY (Feb 5)	Continuous
-40.774	Will critical EU or UK infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-46.805	Will Russian troops enter Lviv, Ukraine before December 31, 2022?	Binary
-48.578	Will Russia use chemical weapons in Ukraine in 2022?	Binary
-52.224	Will there be an armed conflict in the South China Sea before 2023?	Binary
-54.240	Who will win the next UK Conservative Party leadership election? (Liz Truss)	Binary
-67.041	Will Mariupol be under Russian control on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-78.333	Will critical US infrastructure be successfully attacked by Russian cyberattacks before 2023?	Binary
-93.617	Will YouTube be blocked in Russia in 2022?	Binary
-94.713	How many acres will burn in wildfires in California in 2022?	Continuous
-110.878	Will Russia officially declare war on Ukraine or announce its intent to do so by May 9, 2022?	Binary
-111.525	Will Russia substantially restrict emigration by April 1, 2022?	Binary
-121.679	Will the US claim that a Russian disinformation campaign attempted to influence the 2022 midterm elections?	Binary
-192.609	Will Brent Crude Oil top $140/barrel before May 2022?	Binary
-563.262	Will Tether collapse before 2023?	Binary