Bernhard

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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1.857k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
210.388	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
149.958	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
146.909	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
146.300	How many nonstrategic nuclear weapons will be deployed at the end of 2023?	Continuous
139.601	When will 50,000 Chevy Bolt EV and Chevy Bolt EUV vehicles have completed repairs for the recall relating to risk of battery fire?	Continuous
137.340	How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?	Continuous
135.447	What will be the number of conflicts with critical impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
131.626	How many gold medals will the United States win at the 2022 International Math Olympiad?	Continuous
130.198	When will the cumulative vaccination rate ratio for Black Virginians reach 1.0?	Continuous
125.628	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
116.079	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
115.990	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
111.729	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
110.398	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
103.758	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
100.357	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the US on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
100.316	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
99.483	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
97.914	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
97.621	What percentage of black voters will vote for a Republican president in the 2024 US presidential election?	Continuous
96.825	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Mike Pence)	Binary
96.825	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Hillary Clinton)	Binary
96.005	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
92.376	Will the IMF approve debt service relief for the US before 2025?	Binary
92.351	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Pete Buttigieg)	Binary
92.351	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Michelle Obama)	Binary
92.351	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Nikki Haley)	Binary
92.105	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
91.286	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
91.089	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary
91.054	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
90.852	Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?	Binary
90.745	Will there be a US-Iran war by 2024?	Binary
89.744	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Joe Biden)	Binary
89.383	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
88.741	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
88.655	When will the percentage of Virginians who have received a booster dose exceed 50%?	Continuous
88.577	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
88.571	Will there be at least one fatality due to deliberate nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
88.415	Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
88.083	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
87.977	Will a federal tax on unrealized capital gains in the United States be passed before February 1st 2023?	Binary
86.811	What will be the maximum arctic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
86.498	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
86.454	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
85.901	Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?	Binary
85.359	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
84.572	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Gavin Newsom)	Binary
84.513	By 2023, what fraction of total content published on the Effective Altruism Wiki will have been written by volunteer contributors?	Continuous
84.478	Will there be a deadly clash between Japanese and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
84.315	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
84.101	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
83.734	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
83.300	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
83.169	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
82.402	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
81.909	How many deaths from terrorism in 2020?	Continuous
81.403	Will the US President inaugurated in 2025 be from a different political party than the projected winner as officially called by a majority of major news desks?	Binary
81.034	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
80.696	Will Hungary declare a referendum in 2022 to exit the EU?	Binary
80.192	When will the pre-August 2022 peak in weekly CLI visits (count) in Virginia occur?	Continuous
78.665	Will there be at least one fatality due to inadvertent nuclear detonation by 2024?	Binary
78.665	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
78.325	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
78.029	When will US office workplace occupancy reach >50% of pre-pandemic levels?	Continuous
77.467	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
77.436	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
77.231	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
76.604	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
76.262	Will there be >3,000 nonstrategic nuclear weapons at the end of 2023?	Binary
76.180	Will the Hen Caging (Prohibition) bill become UK law in the 2021-22 Parliamentary session??	Binary
75.559	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
74.513	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
73.774	What will be the total box office gross in the US & Canada in 2022?	Continuous
73.481	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
73.087	Will USA top the Olympic Medal Table at Paris 2024?	Binary
73.074	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
72.981	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
72.790	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
71.360	Will there be at least one human fatality in space due to space debris by 2025?	Binary
71.289	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
70.715	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
69.562	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
69.368	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
69.307	Will Substack cancel anyone before 2023?	Binary
68.642	How many staff will the Arms Control Association, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Ploughshares Fund have at the end of 2023?	Continuous
68.205	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
67.933	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
67.081	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
67.017	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
66.971	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
66.888	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
66.596	When will the next German government be formed?	Continuous
66.449	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
66.363	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (India, Israel or Pakistan)	Binary
66.355	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
66.308	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
66.226	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
65.459	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
65.206	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
64.621	By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
62.296	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
61.188	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
60.083	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal by 2024?	Binary
58.435	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
58.417	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
58.339	Who will be elected US President in 2024? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
58.273	Will more than 2,500 nuclear weapons be ready for use at short notice at the end of 2023, according to the most recent FAS estimates?	Binary
57.895	By 2023, what will be the quality of the best articles published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
57.536	Will the Fed decrease the size of its accumulated asset portfolio below $8 trillion by 2023?	Binary
55.839	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
54.585	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
54.305	Will any state leave NATO before 2024?	Binary
53.777	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
53.775	Will the US propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by January 20, 2025?	Binary
53.663	Will Israel and Palestine hold peace talks in 2022?	Binary
53.625	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered globally by December 31, 2022?	Continuous
53.599	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
53.360	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
52.200	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
52.153	Will there be a deadly clash between the US and Russian armed forces before 2024?	Binary
52.124	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
51.542	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
49.109	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
48.862	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
48.777	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
48.500	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
48.460	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
48.359	Before 2024, will North Korea possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads?	Binary
48.355	Will there be a deadly clash between Russian and NATO armed forces before 2024, without US involvement?	Binary
48.122	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
47.524	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
47.251	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
47.214	Will an additional state join NATO before 2024?	Binary
46.997	What will be the UK's annual inflation rate in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
46.711	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
45.814	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
45.752	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
44.738	What will be the minimum arctic sea ice extent in the following years? (2023)	Continuous
43.163	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
43.098	How many COVID-19 vaccine shots will be administered in the US by Dec 31, 2022?	Continuous
43.062	Will a new Derek Chauvin homicide trial be ordered on or before April 20, 2022?	Binary
41.858	What will the the market cap of FAAMG on December 31, 2022 as a percentage of the S&P500?	Continuous
39.790	Will the EU propose a ban on hydrazine for spacecraft propulsion by 2025?	Binary
39.592	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID cases in the US between January 1, 2022 to April 1, 2022?	Continuous
38.471	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
38.450	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
38.213	What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
38.127	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
37.733	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
37.618	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
37.326	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
37.145	Will 2022 be the hottest year on record?	Binary
36.994	How many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2022?	Continuous
36.776	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
36.213	Will at least one fire produce smoke plumes that reach into the stratosphere, before 2023?	Binary
35.601	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
35.130	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
35.025	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
34.563	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
32.980	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
32.905	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
31.762	By 2023, how many words of content will have been published on the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
31.730	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
30.818	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2023?	Binary
30.177	Will there be any further delay to the Libor cessation in 2023?	Binary
29.529	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
29.296	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
28.986	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
28.933	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
28.470	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
28.217	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
28.168	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
28.092	By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?	Binary
27.626	Will Jair Bolsonaro successfully stage a coup by January 2, 2023?	Binary
26.593	When will Virginia's statewide mask mandate for K-12 schools be rescinded?	Continuous
25.295	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
24.867	How many weeks will Virginia experience “widespread” influenza activity during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
24.598	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
24.568	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
22.906	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
22.033	Will mean log-odds outperform mean probability for the next 300 questions?	Binary
21.895	Will 2022 be warmer than 2021?	Binary
21.330	Will India have at least 200 nuclear warheads at the end of 2023?	Binary
20.955	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
20.519	How many positive influenza specimens will be detected by the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System in the peak week for the Northern Hemisphere over the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
20.202	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
18.743	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
17.608	Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2024?	Binary
16.451	Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?	Binary
15.719	Will Donald J. Trump be allowed to operate a Twitter account before the 2024 presidential election?	Binary
15.715	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
14.817	Will Hunter Biden be indicted before November 5, 2024?	Binary
14.717	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
14.346	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
14.221	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
10.075	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
9.593	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 300 questions?	Binary
9.491	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
8.709	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
8.386	Will these countries join the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2024? (South Sudan)	Binary
8.315	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
5.963	Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?	Binary
5.830	Will a new US Supreme Court justice be confirmed before January 1, 2023?	Binary
5.586	What will be the maximum 7 day weekly average of COVID deaths in the US before 2022 April 1?	Continuous
4.692	How many flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, make in its lifetime?	Continuous
4.011	Will Bongbong Marcos win the 2022 Philippine Presidential Election?	Binary
3.103	Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2022 Winter Olympics?	Binary
3.028	When will Virginia’s pre-May 2022 peak weekly total of new confirmed and probable hospitalizations occur?	Continuous
2.344	When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months?	Continuous
1.125	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
0.764	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.083	Will the Taliban capture downtown Kandahar before the start of Ramadan?	Binary
-1.738	Will Elizabeth Truss become Leader of the UK's Conservative Party before 2025?	Binary
-2.759	How many eviction cases will be filed in Virginia in Q4 2021?	Continuous
-3.656	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-5.382	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-7.416	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
-9.222	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-9.733	Will the 2022 Winter Olympics be completed fully and as scheduled?	Binary
-11.119	Will Elon Musk become CEO of Twitter before 2025?	Binary
-12.984	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
-14.225	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-14.354	What will be the number of conflicts with significant impacts on U.S. interests by 2023?	Continuous
-14.741	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-15.979	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-18.643	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-18.812	What will be the percent SOL assessment pass rate in math for Virginian third graders in the 2021-2022?	Continuous
-22.996	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
-23.581	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
-24.050	What is the %reduction in the secondary transmission of Delta from infected vaccinated individuals compared to infected unvaccinated individuals, according to the mean of the first 3 relevant studies?	Continuous
-24.117	Will someone agree to participate in a Rootclaim challenge before 2025?	Binary
-24.476	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
-24.685	How many medals will the USA win at Paris 2024?	Continuous
-26.265	Will there be a military conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before 2023?	Binary
-28.426	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-28.669	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
-31.145	Will the floating storage vessel Safer leak at least 10,000 tonnes of oil before 2025?	Binary
-31.450	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
-32.071	Will at least two states each increase the size of their nuclear weapons arsenals by at least 25% by 2024?	Binary
-32.510	By 2023, how fast will the Effective Altruism Wiki have grown relative to the LessWrong Wiki?	Continuous
-33.299	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-36.218	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
-36.695	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-37.744	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
-39.383	What will US inflation be in 2022?	Continuous
-40.442	How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-42.820	By 2023, will the Effective Altruism Wiki be "alive"?	Binary
-44.418	What will the price of oil be for December 2022?	Continuous
-45.252	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
-47.437	How many deaths will be caused by terrorism globally in 2021?	Continuous
-49.398	Will there be a deadly clash between Indian and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
-51.342	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
-52.563	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
-55.439	In January 2025, will we see "3 US Code § 15" objections debated for the 2024 election on enough states where their total electoral count would be enough to change the outcome of the election?	Binary
-56.858	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
-58.389	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-58.392	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
-60.371	Will the US CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before August 1, 2022?	Binary
-61.290	What will the USD price of Bitcoin be on December 31, 2022?	Continuous
-62.668	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
-63.515	What will the US real annual growth rate be in 2022?	Continuous
-64.309	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
-64.354	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-65.906	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
-68.136	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
-70.619	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-71.245	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
-71.617	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
-73.046	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
-77.005	What will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
-82.594	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
-83.833	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
-87.174	Which parties will control US congress following the 2022 midterm elections? (Republican Senate & House)	Binary
-88.880	Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?	Binary
-91.354	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
-91.835	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-93.870	Before 2024, will the ACLU argue that hate speech should not be protected by the First Amendment?	Binary
-97.322	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
-98.245	Will the FY21 NDAA-mandated study on environmental effects of nuclear war be publicly available by 2023?	Binary
-98.595	Will spending on US office construction be less than $77 Billion USD in 2022?	Binary
-99.345	What will be the minimum Antartic sea ice extent (in millions km^2) in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-102.200	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-105.020	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-109.191	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-109.455	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-112.248	How many at-risk Nigerian states will experience Islamic State attacks from September 17, 2021 to September 17, 2022?	Continuous
-119.232	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
-119.975	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-120.923	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-131.336	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-133.410	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
-134.224	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
-135.415	What will be the weekly peak percent of medical visits that are for influenza-like illness (ILI) in Virginia during the 2021-2022 flu season?	Continuous
-136.023	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-138.100	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-139.582	Will Twitter flag any tweet by the New York Times as misinformation before 2025?	Binary
-142.620	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Liberal Democrat)	Continuous
-150.686	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Conservative)	Continuous
-151.385	What percentage of new COVID-19 deaths that occur before 1 August 2022 will be in long-term care facilities?	Continuous
-155.888	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-162.646	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-168.146	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-171.292	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
-172.404	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-173.290	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-173.332	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
-175.823	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Labour)	Continuous
-176.336	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-179.320	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-182.921	When will the U.S. CDC recommend that all fully vaccinated Americans receive a booster dose?	Continuous
-184.336	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-185.489	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-185.600	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-190.870	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-191.999	What will be the maximum Antartic sea ice extent in these years? (2023)	Continuous
-192.547	How many seats will each party win in the next UK general election? (Scottish National Party)	Continuous
-192.562	If Elizabeth Holmes is convicted in Theranos fraud trial, how long will her sentence be?	Continuous
-199.029	How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the US in 2022?	Continuous
-208.254	What will Russia's nominal GDP be in 2023, in trillions of USD?	Continuous
-214.744	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-219.791	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-224.129	What will be the total size of MacArthur's 2022 and 2023 Nuclear Challenges grants?	Continuous
-254.968	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-327.909	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-503.025	Will the US enter a recession before the following dates? (2023)	Binary