2e10e122

User

Duration:5 years

Time Period:2021 - 2025

Baseline Accuracy measures how accurate a user was compared to chance. User scores are determined by summing their Baseline scores for all questions within a time period. This category rewards forecasters who are both accurate and forecast on many questions. Learn more here.

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4.039k	Total Score
Score	Question	Question Type
162.584	When will airplane travelers be free from mask mandates in the USA?	Continuous
148.939	How much money will the FTX Foundation distribute in 2023?	Continuous
128.128	What will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?	Continuous
117.372	What place will the United States get at the 2022 International Mathematical Olympiad?	Continuous
114.307	What percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?	Continuous
111.000	What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
98.945	How many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?	Continuous
98.087	When will Keir Starmer cease to be Leader of the Labour Party?	Continuous
97.633	Will a federal law imposing disbursement requirements on donor-advised fund accounts pass in the United States before 2023?	Binary
97.425	When will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?	Continuous
97.187	Will SpaceX file for bankruptcy protection before 1 January 2023?	Binary
96.627	Will Donald Trump become speaker of the US House of Representatives before January 15, 2023?	Binary
95.589	In the 2024 US presidential election, will any state refuse to certify their election results?	Binary
92.658	How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
92.495	Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?	Binary
92.430	In the 2024 US Presidential election, will any state officially submit results to the electoral college that are different from the projected winner of that state?	Binary
90.012	What will be the total expenditure on the military in the US, in billions USD, in 2022?	Continuous
89.607	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Mike Pence)	Binary
86.780	What will be the total world military expenditure in 2021, as reported by SIPRI?	Continuous
86.589	Will the U.S. CDC classify Omicron as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) before 2023?	Binary
84.867	Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?	Binary
84.523	Will Impossible Food's ingredient heme be banned in the United States before 2023?	Binary
84.213	Will meme-based cryptocurrency, Dogecoin (DOGE), be valued at $1 per coin or higher on January 1, 2025?	Binary
84.124	How many dollars will it cost per month to store 1 TB on Google Cloud Archive in 2025?	Continuous
83.425	Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?	Binary
83.153	Will the U.S. phase out per-country caps on employment-based visas before 2025?	Binary
82.804	Who will be the Republican nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Ron DeSantis)	Binary
81.013	Will the Omicron variant be more lethal than Delta?	Binary
80.862	Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?	Binary
80.254	How many subscribers will the Youtube channel Rational Animations have on November 1, 2023?	Continuous
78.059	Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?	Binary
77.157	What will the total worldwide box office gross be for Avatar 2?	Continuous
77.106	How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
76.950	Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?	Binary
76.534	Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?	Binary
76.425	What will Lebanon's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
76.218	Will Amazon accept Bitcoin before 2024?	Binary
73.475	Will the Duke or Duchess of Sussex file for divorce before Mar 8, 2022?	Binary
70.791	Will Egypt attempt to damage the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam before 2024?	Binary
70.022	Will a meat or dairy consumption tax go into effect in the US or any EU member state by 2023?	Binary
69.980	By 2023, what fraction of total traffic to the Effective Altruism Forum will be traffic to the Effective Altruism Wiki?	Continuous
69.911	Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person before 2023?	Binary
69.319	Will there be a large-scale power outage in the continental Europe synchronous grid before 2023?	Binary
69.221	Will any top ten meat global processor/producer go bankrupt by 2023?	Binary
66.064	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2022 French presidential election?	Binary
65.689	What will South Africa's Fragile States Index score be in 2022?	Continuous
62.515	What will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?	Continuous
62.285	Will a third-party or independent candidate win at least 5% of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
61.830	Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?	Binary
60.590	How many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
60.553	Will the US re-implement a ban on funding gain-of-function research in 2022?	Binary
60.404	Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?	Binary
60.361	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Apple Inc. affiliation?	Continuous
60.358	Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 3, 2024?	Binary
60.157	What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?	Continuous
58.664	Will global CO2-equivalent emissions be greater in 2021 than in 2020?	Binary
58.507	Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?	Binary
58.476	Will France place in the Top 5 at the 2024 Paris Olympics?	Binary
58.464	Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?	Binary
58.092	Will Boris Johnson be Prime Minister of the UK on June 1, 2022?	Binary
57.896	How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to the following dates? (February 2023)	Continuous
57.533	Will Washington D.C. become a state before January 20, 2025?	Binary
56.489	How many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?	Continuous
56.463	Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?	Binary
56.351	What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?	Continuous
55.520	What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates? (November 2022)	Continuous
55.378	What will be the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU on the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
54.818	What will be the British male life expectancy at birth in 2021 according to the UK Office of National Statistics?	Continuous
54.352	What will be the average monthly rate of US workforce resignations in 2022?	Continuous
54.315	How many papers at the 2023 NeurIPS conference will have authors with Amazon affiliation?	Continuous
52.697	When will Omicron become the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant in the U.S.?	Continuous
51.622	Will the U.S. CDC classify a SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of high consequence (VOHC) by 1 March 2022?	Binary
51.619	What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?	Continuous
50.905	Will Djokovic win 21 Tennis Grand Slams?	Binary
49.024	Will there be a major famine in North Korea before 2025?	Binary
48.537	Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?	Binary
48.392	Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?	Binary
47.716	Will Trafalgar Group outperform the 538 polling average in the 2022 congressional and gubernatorial elections?	Binary
46.719	By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?	Binary
46.680	When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
45.460	Will the US, UK, or EU authorize an Omicron-specific booster before 2023?	Binary
44.239	What will be the ratio of Biden's to Trump's US Google search volumes in the third quarter of 2022?	Continuous
43.174	When will the Sputnik V vaccine be approved by WHO?	Continuous
42.397	Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?	Binary
42.385	What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?	Continuous
41.713	When will a Nobel Prize be awarded for COVID19-related accomplishments?	Continuous
40.819	Will women be required to register for US Selective Service before 2024?	Binary
40.765	Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?	Binary
39.468	What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?	Continuous
38.606	Will the Omicron variant be less lethal than Delta?	Binary
38.319	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
37.499	Will tirzepatide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA before 2025?	Binary
37.228	What will Rivian's market cap be at the close of trading on 20 April 2022?	Continuous
37.020	On what date will the U.S. CDC announce that they are tracking a SARS-CoV-2 variant that they classify as a variant of high consequence (VOHC)?	Continuous
35.269	Will the "Moon Cube" be shown to be non-natural before 2023?	Binary
35.161	How many migrants will die in 2022 trying to cross the Mediterranean?	Continuous
33.447	How many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
30.991	When will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before? (Continued)	Continuous
30.643	How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?	Continuous
28.831	What will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?	Continuous
27.029	When will Apple announce the first computer that uses the second generation of their M-series processor (likely to be named the M2)?	Continuous
26.228	By 2024, will China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
26.218	By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
25.571	What will be the ratio of 2022 to 2021 average global interest in vertical farming?	Continuous
23.826	Will Substack be valued over $1 Billion before 2024?	Binary
23.224	What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates? (Feb-2023)	Continuous
22.177	How much revenue will the SENS research foundation receive in 2021?	Continuous
21.739	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in plant-based food companies in 2022?	Continuous
19.484	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
19.363	How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
19.136	What will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-15?	Continuous
19.002	When will Australia reach its 80% (of 16+ population) Covid-19 vaccination target?	Continuous
18.710	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based eggs be in the U.S. in 2022?	Continuous
18.287	Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on January 2, 2023?	Binary
17.889	What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
16.889	What will be the R0 of the Omicron variant according to the mean estimate of the first relevant systematic review?	Continuous
16.642	Will UK inflation as expressed by the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH) exceed 4% before 31 December 2021?	Binary
16.321	Will Trevor Milton be convicted on federal fraud charges related to Nikola before 2024?	Binary
15.740	What will total oil demand globally be in 2021?	Continuous
15.469	What will the number of active volcanos be in 2022?	Continuous
14.208	How many confirmed deaths from COVID-19 will be reported globally in 2022?	Continuous
13.747	Will the EU phase out high-concentration CO2 stunning or killing of pigs before 2025?	Binary
13.704	What retail market share will plant-based milk make up of the total milk category in the US in 2022?	Continuous
13.596	Will any US state decriminalize or legalize a major psychedelic drug in 2022?	Binary
13.465	How many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?	Continuous
13.341	In 2022, for any month where US core CPI inflation is more than 3 percent, will inflation be at most 3 percentage points higher than the three-month commercial paper interest rate?	Binary
13.331	What will the Men's winning 100m time in the 2024 Olympic Final be?	Continuous
13.307	What will be the largest cultivated meat production capacity, in metric tons per year, of a single facility by January 1, 2023?	Continuous
11.731	By 2024, will the next Nuclear Posture Review explicitly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
10.343	Will Matt Levine join substack before 2023?	Binary
8.460	Will the US Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade before 2023?	Binary
8.456	What will be the best accuracy score on the MATH dataset by 2025?	Continuous
8.290	What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?	Continuous
6.604	How many commercial flights will be in operation globally on June 30, 2022?	Continuous
4.998	When will a SpaceX Starship upper stage successfully land?	Continuous
4.794	What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?	Continuous
2.903	When will 100M doses of Moderna's Omicron-specific booster candidate or multi-valent booster candidates be distributed?	Continuous
1.854	Will Brazil continue to be the largest producer of soybeans in the world in 2022?	Binary
1.483	If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?	Continuous
0.955	When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?	Continuous
0.509	What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
0.314	Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?	Binary
0.207	Will the SEC approve any bitcoin ETF before January 20, 2025?	Binary
-	Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2024?	Binary
-	Will the GOP control the Senate after the 2024 elections?	Binary
-0.526	Will US core CPI inflation rise by more than 3% from December 2021 to December 2022?	Binary
-0.797	When will Virginia's 6-foot distancing requirement for food and beverage establishments be lifted?	Continuous
-0.877	When will New Zealand reopen for quarantine-free international travel?	Continuous
-1.967	By 2024, will a nuclear-armed state other than the US, Russia, or China clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?	Binary
-2.950	Will Donald J. Trump run for the office of President of the United States in 2024?	Binary
-3.548	Will John McAfee receive a prison term of at least 3 years?	Binary
-4.246	When will Uber become cheaper in the Bay Area?	Continuous
-4.455	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based meats be in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-4.878	How many Metaculus users will attend the unofficial Metaculus Meetup at the Taco Bell in Westfield, Indiana on the 1st of January 2025?	Continuous
-7.810	Will the US forgive $10,000 of federal student loans per person before 2024?	Binary
-9.036	Will Omicron be the most dominant sequenced strain of SARS-CoV-2 on December 31, 2022?	Binary
-9.284	Will the Coalition win the next Australian federal election?	Binary
-11.210	What will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-11.405	What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?	Continuous
-11.917	What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-13.272	Will China have at least 420 nuclear warheads on December 31, 2023?	Binary
-13.301	By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?	Binary
-14.025	When will the UK hold its next general election?	Continuous
-14.982	Will the 12-Month U.S. Core Consumer Price Index rise above 3.0% by 2024?	Binary
-15.196	Will a Democrat win the 2024 US presidential election?	Binary
-15.197	Will the Democratic Progressive Party win the 2024 Taiwanese presidential election?	Binary
-15.808	How many countries will approve the commercial sale of cultivated meat by 2023?	Continuous
-19.730	How will the World Happiness Report rank the United States in 2020-2022?	Continuous
-22.664	What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?	Continuous
-23.002	What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?	Continuous
-31.902	Will Trump gain at least 10M followers on another platform?	Binary
-32.187	Will GB News be broadcasting in 2025?	Binary
-32.192	Will there be fewer than 6 conservative justices on the SCOTUS on January 20, 2025?	Binary
-32.330	What will the total dollar grocery sales of plant-based foods in the U.S. be in 2022?	Continuous
-32.817	What will be the absolute efficacy of the single-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?	Continuous
-32.883	Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory before 2023?	Binary
-33.890	Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?	Binary
-38.889	What will the total amount of worldwide venture capital funding in quantum computing be in 2022?	Continuous
-47.806	When will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?	Continuous
-50.003	Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2023?	Binary
-58.600	Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?	Binary
-59.224	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2022?	Continuous
-63.358	How much venture capital, private equity, and other non-exit capital will be invested in cultivated meat companies in 2022?	Continuous
-64.288	Will Google block third-party cookies on Chrome before 2024?	Binary
-67.812	When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?	Continuous
-72.882	What will the fed funds rate be on December 31, 2023?	Continuous
-73.922	Will SciHub or a successor organisation exist and be uploading new articles in 2023?	Binary
-74.628	Will FTX default on an obligation to hand over their users’ assets on request by the end of 2022?	Binary
-77.645	What will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?	Continuous
-80.717	What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?	Continuous
-85.862	Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?	Binary
-91.509	Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by December 31, 2024?	Binary
-100.011	How much total capital will be invested in plant-based foods companies through exits (IPOs, direct listings, mergers and acquisitions) in 2022?	Continuous
-110.385	[short-fuse] Will Elon Musk sell more than 5% of his Tesla stock by July 1st 2022?	Binary
-121.414	Will at least one cultivated meat product be for sale in the US by 2023?	Binary
-128.871	Will Tesla reveal a prototype of the Tesla Bot before 2023?	Binary
-143.392	Will Mike Pence be a candidate for US President in the 2024 Elections?	Binary
-153.279	When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?	Continuous
-154.324	What fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?	Continuous
-162.663	What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?	Continuous
-168.884	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Kamala Harris)	Binary
-173.151	Will an Alphabet company win the general category for protein structure prediction at CASP15 in 2022?	Binary
-184.709	What will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024 as a percentage of in November 2016?	Continuous
-206.602	Who will be the Democratic nominee for the 2024 US Presidential Election? (Joe Biden)	Binary